Monitoring global change in Sierra Nevada LTER platform (Spain): Preliminary results

Prez-Luque, A. J.1; Bonet, F.2; Prez-Prez, R.3; Zamora, R.

- Laboratorio de Ecologa. Centro Andaluz de Medio Ambiente. Universidad de Granada. Granada (SPAIN). 1: ajperez@ugr.es 2:fjbonet@ugr.es 3: ramon@ugr.es

This poster shows the most relevant results that we have obtained in the Sierra Nevada LTER site during its first 5 years of life. All these results are very preliminar, because we do not have yet long temporal series. Each box shows results regarding a specific thematic area. All of them have been located over a picture that represents the landscape diversity of the Sierra Nevadas socioecological system.

Biodiversity in the summits Climate change

[1]

[5-9]

Future climate scenarios show that there will be an increase of minimum average temperature of 4.8C at the end of the XXIth Century in Sierra Nevada. The rainfall will suffer a slight decrease.

Changes in snow cover

[2 - 4]

The results shown by GLORIA project in Sierra Nevada reveals a 8% decrease in the number of flora species in four summits. In addition, the species distribution models that we have created show a progressive reduction in the potential distribution area of most plant species.
100

We have run a time series analysis with MODIS snow products over Sierra Nevada. Results show that there is a negative trend in snow duration. This trend is more important at higher altitudes.
% Potential area
Isolines showing snowpack duration (weeks) Pixels where the trend is statistically significative Positive trend
0.0011 0.0150 0.0150 0.0475 0.0475 0.0800 0.0800 0.1172 0.1172 0.1590 0.1590 0.2008 0.2008 0.2426 0.2426 0.2844 0.2844 0.3541 0.3541 0.4656

75

Average minimum temperature (C)

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Past 50 years CGCM A2 CGCM B2 ECHAM A2 ECHAM B2

Artemisia granatensis Arenaria tetraquetra subsp. amabilis Crepis oporinoides Arenaria pungens Festuca pseudoeskia

50

Negative trend

10 km

-0.7188 -0.6166 -0.6166 -0.5562 -0.5562 -0.4959 -0.4959 -0.4262 -0.4262 -0.3472 -0.3472 -0.2729 -0.2729 -0.2032 -0.2032 -0.1335 -0.1335 -0.0592 -0.0592 -0.0188

25

0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

2080

2100

Freshwater ecosystems

[14]

Forest pests

[10-13]

We have detected an asynchronous pattern between water flow and brown trout density. Heavy and torrential rainfall decreases brown trout populations due to a physical effects on their habitat.
0.35 0.3
trutta)
Brown trout density (Salmo Annual rainfall
Flow (l/s)
2000 1500 1000 500

1200

1000
r = 0.945 p-value < 0.001

Density Salmo trutta (fishes/m2)

0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05

200

400

600

800

Annual rainfall (mm)

800

600

400

There are more than 40.000 has covered by pine plantations in Sierra Nevada. They have been successful avoiding soil loss, but they also promote the abundance of pests that feed over their leaves. Processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) is the most important forest pest. Our results show that climate change is promoting its altitudinal shift, where could affect endemic pine species (Pinus sylvestris nevadensis) .

200

Annual rainfall (mm)

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Ecosystem services
Traditional food Genetic resources Water

[15-16]

Climate regulation Polliation Air quality regulation Educational values

Research Recreation and tourism

Land use change

[17-18] Pine plantations

Biological control Renewable energy Geological raw materials Biotic raw materials

Regulation of water flows Cultural heritage values

Aesthetic values

Moderation of extreme events Maintenance of soil fertiliy

Erosion prevention

Traditional Knowledge

Ethical (spiritual and religious)

Increase

Provisioning

Regulation

Cultural

Decrease

According to Millenium Ecosystem Assessment in Spain, 27% of ecosystem services in Sierra Nevada are not being used sustainably. Some regulation services such as climate and hydrological are suffering important impacts. On the other hand, support services and some cultural ones are increasing (ecoturism, environmental education).

Land use changes are a very important driver of global change in Mediterranean mountains. In the 1950s, overgrazing and charcoal extraction resulted in degradation of soil and vegetation cover. After abandonment of these rural activities, oak forests began a resprouting process up to the current situation. Actually, this driver is still affecting ecological dynamics and the structure of natural forests in Sierra Nevada.

Closed shrublands

1500

1000
Natural oak forest (Quercus spp.)

Mixed Closed shrubs forests with Quercus species

500

Surface (Has.)

Opened shrubs with

Crops mosaics - 500

Quercus
species

- 1000

Open shrubs with pastures

- 1500

[1]: http://sl.ugr.es/obsnev_simClima [2]: Bonet Garca, F.J. (2009). Caracterizacin de la cubierta de nieve de Sierra Nevada y tendencias temporales mediante el uso de imgenes MODIS (2000-2008). http://refbase.iecolab.es/show.php?record=1032 [3]: Prez-Prez et al. (2012) ModeleR: An enviromental model repository as knowledge base for experts. Expert Systems with Applications, 39 (9): 83968411 [4]: http://obsnev.es/noticia.html?id=175 [5]: Pauli et al. (2012). Recent Plant Diversity Changes on Europes Mountain Summits. Science 336: 353-355. [6]: Gottfried, M. et al. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2: 111-115. [7]: Molero-Mesa et al. (2009). Escenarios Fitocenolgicos de observacin para el seguimiento del cambio climtico en Sierra Nevada. En: Ramrez Sanz, L. & Asensio Nistal, B. (eds.). (2009) Proyectos de investigacin en parques nacionales: 2005-2008. OAPN. Madrid. 262 pp. [8]: Benito, B. et al. (2011). Simulating potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterranean-alpine ecosystems. Climatic Change, 108 (3): 471483. [9]: Benito, B. (2009). Ecoinfortica aplicada a la conservacin: simulacin de efectos del cambio global en la distribucin de la fora de Andaluca. Doctoral Thesis. Departamento de Botnica. University of Granada. http://ide.ugr.es/blasbenito/tesis/ [10]: Hdar, J.A. et al. (2003). Pine processionary caterpillar Thaumetopoea pityocampa as a new threat for relict Mediterranean Scots pine forests under climatic warming. Biological Conservation 110: 123-129 [11]: Hdar & Zamora (2004). Herbivory and climatic warming: a Mediterranean outbreaking caterpillar attacks a relict, boreal pine species. Biodiversity and Conservation 13: 493-500 [12]: Cayuela L. et al. (2011). Improving forest management practices through science: pest control in Mediterranean pine woodlands. Forest Ecology and Management 261: 1732-1737. [13]: Cayuela L. et al. (2012). Control Biolgico de la procesionaria. Investigacin y Ciencia, febrero 2012:14-15 [14]: Galiana et al. (2012). Seguimiento de las poblaciones de trucha comn. Pp: 44-45. En Aspizua et al. (eds). Observatorio de Cambio Global Sierra Nevada: metodologas de seguimiento. http://sl.ugr.es/dossier_metodologias. [15] Moreno, R. et al. (2011). Estado y tendencias de los ecosistemas de montaa mediterrnea de Espaa. En: Evaluacin de Ecosistemas del Milenio de Espaa. Universidad Autnoma Madrid-Fundacion Biodiversidad. http://www.ecomilenio.es/informe-de-resultadoseme/1760 [16]: Evaluacin de los Ecosistemas del Milenio de Espaa (2011). La Evaluacin de los Ecosistemas del Milenio de Espaa. Sntesis de resultados. Fundacin Biodiversidad. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y Medio Rural y Marino. [17]: Navarro-Gnzalez, I. et al. The weight of the past: Land-use legacies and recolonization of pine plantations by oak trees. (subbmited to Ecological Applications). [18]: Navarro-Gonzlez, I. et al. (2011). Current Mediterranean forest regeneration depends on land use in the recent past. In 12 European Ecologial Federation Congres. Responding to rapid environmental change. vila, 25-29 Sep