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Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, PhD (Purdue) Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development
Presented at the Symposium on Growing food: New places, new technologies Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
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China
S.Asia
SS Africa
5 4 3
1
0 1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2010
Netherlands Vietnam Japan UK China France Brazil USA India South Africa Cuba Benin Malawi Ethiopia Mali Burkina Faso Nigeria Tanzania Mozambique Guinea Ghana Uganda
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100 200 300 400 500
600
kg/ha
Orange Flesh Sweet Potato Water Efficient Maize for Africa Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa
20-30% yield increase, Yield stability
African leaders are combining political will with technologies, markets and institutional support for farmers
We must feed ourselves. I will not suffer the indignity of begging for food
Late Dr Bingu wa Mutharika President of Malawi
African Governments decided to devote 10% of National Budget for Agriculture: CAADP Maputo Declaration
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Land
Agricultural Potential
Water
279 Billion Cubic Meters of Surface Water Untapped irrigation potential with 3 of the 8 major river systems in Africa.
Labor
110 Million Youth in the work force in 2020 Low wages for agricultural intensification
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Nigerias Exports
Global Exports
0%
16%
Others Nigeria
Global market-share trend of shelled groundnut among key producers** Measure: Percent of global trade of shelled Groundnut USA China Argentina Nigeria 2008
*FAO
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Others
Nigeria
9%
Indonesia
Nigeria 2008
*FAO
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Others
Nigeria
Global market-share trend of cocoa among key producers*** Measure: Percent of global trade of cocoa Cote dIvoire Ghana Indonesia Nigeria 2008
*FAO
** Index Mundi
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2% Others Nigeria
Global market-share trend of Cotton among key West African producers ** Measure: Percent of global trade of Cotton Mali
Burkina Faso
Nigeria 2008
*FAO
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**IFDC
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Nigeria Imports over USD$11 Billion in wheat, rice, sugar and fish every year
Nigerias imports
Nigerias top 4 food imports * Measure: Annual food imports in billions of naira Wheat Worlds largest importer of US hard red and white winter Wheat Rice Worlds #2 Importer Key takeaways
Sugar
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Significant Growth in Non-oil Exports and Agriculture Dominates Non-Oil Sector Growth
Agriculture consistently 75% of Non Oil Exports
Value of agriculture and other non-oil exports (N Bn)
Agriculture Sector Other Non Oil Sectors
100 55 60
35
50
295
190 210
100
2006
Source: CBN, FBN Cpital
150
2007
2008
2009
2010
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52 69
99
2010
Increased Yield
Increased Acreage
Potential 2030
44%
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Nigeria must become an agriculturally industrialized economy We want to modernize the agricultural sector, raise agricultural productivity, develop modern food supply chains, accelerate food processing and value addition, and achieve economies of scale in food production and supply to meet the food needs of Africa's largest population. While Nigeria is the largest food market, we are import dependent, so unable to create jobs, drive markets for locally produced crops. We have decided to end this. Now our goal is "process what we produce, promote locally produced foods, make our farmers prosperous and create jobs". We want prosperity to grow in our rural areas, as our food supply chains grow, for local, regional and export markets.
Rising Population
The Nigerian population has doubled in the last 30 years from 80 Million in 1982 to 165 Million in 2012, and is projected to reach 450 Million by 2050 Increased population coupled with increased meat and fats consumption driving up food demand.
50% for vegetables and fruits, 30% for tubers and roots 20% for grains
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Our Vision: Grow Nigerias agricultural sector To make Nigeria an agriculturally industrialized economy What we have started doing!
Treating agriculture as a business Integrating food production, storage, food processing and industrial manufacturing by value chains (farm to fork) Focusing on value chains where Nigeria has comparative advantage Using agriculture to create jobs, wealth and ensure food security Investment-driven strategic partnerships with the private sector Investment drives to unlock potential of our States in agriculture (joint drives with State Governors)
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Policy reform: Government gets out of direct fertilizer procurement and distribution and leverages mobile phones to target farmers with farm inputs
Government no longer buys and sells fertilizers and seeds Private sector now sell fertilizers and seeds directly to farmers Government provides 50% support for seeds & fertilizers Vouchers and Electronic-Wallets (mobile phones) are being used to better target subsidized inputs to farmers, with target of reaching 5 million farmers per year Banking system is being used to finance input supply: 30 Billion Naira was financed for 2102, using guarantees, without spending a single Naira of government funds Government has liberalized foundation seed production to private sector to accelerate growth of the seed sector Establishing a Nigerian Seed Venture Capital Fund. Goal is to grow the use of hybrid seeds from 8,000 metric tons to 1,000,000 metric tons, per year
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Marketing Corporations and Commodity Exchanges are being established to facilitate marketing for agricultural commodities
Leading global examples of marketing corporations
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New Financing Framework for Agriculture by Central Bank of Nigeria will unlock $ 3 billion in affordable loans from banks for agricultural value chains NIRSAL : 75 billion assets to stimulate lending by banks and other financial players ) Agricultural Insurance Risk Technical Bank
sharing Facility (45B) Shares lending risks with banks (e.g. 50% loss incurred) Facility (4.5B) Link insurance products to the loan provided by the banks to loan beneficiaries assistance facility (9B) Build the capacity of banks, microfinance institutions Build capacity of agricultural value chains Expand financial inclusion bank rating scheme (1.5B) Rate banks according to their effectiveness of lending to agriculture . incentive mechanism (15B) Targeted incentives that move banks to a long term, strategic commitment to agricultural lending
Goal
Expand bank lending in agricultural value chains
NIRSAL Objective
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Staple Crop Processing Zones (SCPZ) to drive food processing and manufacturing industries and infrastructure investments Attract private investors into areas of high food Sample Agro Processing Plant
production to set up food processing plants
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NW
Yobe Borno
Cotton, Onion, Tomato and Sorghum + Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries Cotton, Onion, Tomato and Sorghum + Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries Maize and Soybean + Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries Oil Palm and Cocoa + Rice & Cassava+ Livestock & Fisheries Oil Palm and Cocoa + Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries Oil Palm and Cocoa + Rice & Cassava + Livestock & Fisheries
Kano
NE NC
Gom be
Adamawa
Oyo
Osun Ekiti Ogun Lagos Ondo Edo Delta Kogi Benue AnaEnugu mbra Ebonyi Cross ImoAbia River
Taraba
SW SE
SS
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Nigeria will replace imported brown rice and finished parboiled rice with domestic production and milling of rice
Import Substitution of Parboiled Brown Rice
Annual Brown Rice Supply Options Import vs. Domestic Supply Measure: Millions Metric Tons
Imported PB Rice
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US investor invests $40 million in rice production and milling in Taraba State (February 2012) Expected production of 300,000 MT of rice (15% of imports) and creation of 15,000 jobs This will become the largest rice farm in Africa.
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
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Nigeria to have the largest high quality locally produced rice processing capacity in Africa
Investment facility concluded (February 2012) for 100 large scale integrated rice processing mills, with total capacity for 2 million MT of milled rice, per year Mills to be owned and operated by the private sector Mills to be located across major rice producing States, with completion period of 18-24 months Progress already made 3 new rice processing mills in Ebonyi, Niger and Kebbi States with capacity of 90,000 tons of milled rice have been completed (February 2012).
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High Quality Nigerian Rice rolled out: EBONY Rice, Ebonyi (March 2012)
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Do re o
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Starch
Chips
Dried Chips Principal market to meet internal and external demand of cassava for industrial use. Chinas demand is expected to exceed 12 mill tons by 2015/16 due to their large ethanol production.
Sweeteners - High Fructose Cassava Syrup (HFCS) The total sugar requirement for soft drink bottlers and juice manufacturers in Nigeria is estimated at 200,000 tons of sugar p/a. A replacement of half of this by HFCS from cassava, would create a 100,000 ton demand. Fuel Ethanol (E10) Nigeria has adopted the policy of blending gasoline with 10% ethanol, the E-10 policy. This represents a potential one billion liter per year market of fuel ethanol and, assuming 50% of feedstock comes from cassava, a raw material requirement of 11 million tons of dried chips is required.
HFCS
Ethanol
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Mr. President launched 40% High Quality Cassava Flour Bread on 30 November, 2011 and challenged the private sector to commercialize
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
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Private Sector Success: Largest bread baker, UTC, commercializes cassava flour bread (February 2012) that is cheaper than 100% wheat flour bread, and encourages local content for jobs
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New Investments to make Nigeria the Largest Processor of Cassava Flour in the World
1. Procurement and installation of 18 large scale industrial processing
2. Processing plants to be run and owned by the private sector 3. The mills will support a massive structural shift in the flour milling and
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New High Yielding Cocoa Hybrids Developed by Nigerian Scientists Launches a Cocoa Revolution|
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
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Released 8 New High Yielding, Fast Maturing Cocoa Hybrids to revolutionize Cocoa Sector Increased Yield (Kg/Ha)
Do re o
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Do re o
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Food manufacturing and industrial use will drive sorghum value chains across Northern Nigeria
Fortified Foods
Key markets for these fortified foods: Home Grown School Feeding programs Turn Nigeria into a major supplier of fortified foods for
food aid purchases for the region by World Food Program High Quality Sorghum Flour for composite flour with wheat for bread in Northern Nigeria Establish large scale sorghum processing plants
Malt
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IRR
20%
Payback Period
~ 4years
19% 20%
Maize
Rice Soya Beans
30%
~3.6 years
33% 106%
15 t 25
Source: CGD Global Warming and Agriculture: New Country Estimates Show Developing Countries Face Declines in Agriculture Productivity > 25
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Liberalization of the agricultural insurance market to allow private insurance companies Weather-indexed crop insurance Strategic grain reserves Expanded investment in irrigation
Wealth
US$2 Billion in additional income in the hands of Nigerian farmers US$2.2 Billion injected into the economy from rice self sufficiency US$380 Million injected into the economy from substituting 40% of
bread wheat flour with cassava flour
Food Security
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