Monthly Update | November 2012

December 3, 2012 Yaresh Kothari

+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Automobile Sector
Muted festival demand
For November 2012, automakers reported a muted performance despite the festival season on account of weak demand across the product segments. However, utility vehicles (UV) and light commercial vehicles (LCV) continue to defy the slowdown by posting strong growth. The medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment remains the most impacted as weak demand environment persisted during the month. Among auto majors, while Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) maintained its strong growth trajectory and outperformed its peers; Hero MotoCorp (HMCL), Tata Motors (TTMT), Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) and Ashok Leyland (AL) registered a lower-than-expected performance. Going ahead, we expect the demand scenario to remain challenging as slowdown in economic growth coupled with higher interest rates and fuel expenses continue to dampen consumer sentiments. TTMT reported extremely weak volumes as total sales registered a decline of 13.4% yoy (7.3% mom) primarily due to a sharp fall of 13.8% yoy (8.5% mom) in domestic sales. The weak performance can be attributed to weakness in the passenger car and MHCV segments which posted a sharp decline of 41.8% (16.5% mom) and 39.1% yoy (18.6% mom) respectively. The LCV sales on the other hand, sustained the strong momentum posting a better-than-expected growth of 18.8% yoy (flat mom). AL posted lower-than-expected sales, with total volumes recording a decline of 6.4% yoy (7.8% mom) led by continued weakness in the MHCV segment. Hence, the CV volumes (ex Dost) registered a steep decline of 36.5% yoy (9.6% mom). MSIL reported slightly lower-than-expected sales (flat mom) primarily due to a volume decline of 13.2% mom (5.8% yoy) in the Mini segment. The Mini segment sales were down on account of continued weakness in petrol cars. This is despite the strong bookings for the new Alto (around 40,000 bookings since launch). On a yoy basis though, total sales jumped 12.5% driven by strong growth in the compact, super compact, utility vehicles and exports segments. MM sustained its strong volume performance, posting a better-than-expected growth of 18.2% yoy (down 9.9% mom) in its automotive segment. Tractor sales too witnessed a growth of 16.8% yoy (down 17.3% mom) leading to a strong growth of 17.8% yoy (down 17.3% mom) in total volumes. The automotive segment witnessed a strong performance across the product portfolio (ex MNAL); however, the PV segment was the primary driver as sales grew by a strong 38.1% yoy (down 8.6% mom) driven by the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) reported in-line volumes (flat yoy and down 9.5% mom) as motorcycle sales continue to remain sluggish. Nonetheless, the performance benefitted from the new launches Pulsar 200NS and Discover 125ST and gradual revival in exports. HMCL registered sluggish volumes during the month with total sales posting a decline of 6.4% yoy (5.1% mom). TVS Motor (TVSL) posted in-line volumes with total volumes registering a decline of 2.1% yoy (9.6% mom) primarily due to 15.4% yoy (14.8% mom) decline in scooter sales. The three-wheeler sales recorded a better-than-expected growth (86.8% yoy) led by an impressive exports growth of 81.4% yoy.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Tata Motors
TTMT volumes declined 13.4% yoy due to continued weakness in the PV and MHCV sales TTMT reported extremely weak volumes as total sales registered a decline of 13.4% yoy (7.3% mom) to 66,500 units primarily due to a sharp fall of 13.8% yoy (8.5% mom) in domestic sales. The weak performance can be attributed to weakness in the passenger car segment which declined 41.8% yoy (16.5% mom) led by 45.3%, 36.3% and 50.4% yoy decline in Nano, Indica and Indigo sales respectively. As a result, passenger vehicle sales declined 34.3% yoy (13.7% mom) in November 2012. CV sales too posted a decline of 1.4% yoy (4.6% mom) largely on account of 39.1% yoy (18.6% mom) decline in MHCV sales. The MHCV segment continues to be impacted by the slowdown in the industrial activity and due to the lack of freight demand. LCV sales however, continued the strong momentum posting a better-than-expected growth of 18.8% yoy (flat mom). Exports posted a decline of 4.7% yoy during the month. Meanwhile, the company announced two block closures (three day each) at its Jamshedpur plant to avoid piling-up of inventory in the MHCV segment and align production in-line with the market demand.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors Sales trend

Segment Total sales MHCV LCV Total CV Utility vehicles Cars Total PV Exports (Included above)
Source: Company, Angel Research

November November % chg 2012 2011 66,500 10,344 37,716 48,060 4,548 13,892 18,440 4,146 76,823 (13.4) 16,999 (39.1) 31,740 48,739 4,222 18.8 (1.4) 7.7

YTD FY2013 548,134 105,693 268,071 373,764 34,964 139,406 174,370 35,521

YTD % chg FY2012 544,301 222,919 361,362 31,060 151,879 182,939 0.7 20.3 3.4 12.6 (8.2) (4.7) 138,443 (23.7)

23,862 (41.8) 28,084 (34.3) 4,349 (4.7)

39,598 (10.3)

December 3, 2012

Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Exhibit 2: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jul-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) Jul-11 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Ashok Leyland
Total sales declined 6.4% yoy led by steep decline in MHCV sales AL reported lower-than-expected volumes; total volumes registered a decline of 6.4% yoy (7.8% mom) led by continued weakness in the MHCV segment. As a result, CV volumes (ex Dost) posted a steep decline of 36.5% yoy (9.6% mom) during the month. However, Dost sales sustained momentum and registered sales of 2,883 units (down 4.9% mom).

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland Sales trend

Total sales CV (ex. Dost) Dost November November 2012 2011 7,370 7,875 4,487 2,883 7,061 814 % chg (6.4) (36.5) 254.2 YTD FY2013 72,691 50,862 21,829 YTD FY2012 57,273 55,672 1,601 % chg 26.9 (8.6) 1,263.5

Source: Company, Angel Research

December 3, 2012

Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Exhibit 5: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-10

Nov-11

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Maruti Suzuki
MSIL registered slightly lower than expected growth, led by weakness in the Mini segment MSIL reported a slightly lower-than-expected growth of 0.1% mom to 103,200 units primarily due to a decline of 13.2% mom (5.8% yoy) in the Mini segment. The Mini segment sales were down on account of continued weakness in petrol cars. This is despite the strong bookings for the new Alto (around 40,000 bookings since launch). On a yoy basis though, total sales jumped 12.5% driven by strong growth in the compact, super compact, utility vehicles and exports segments. While Swift, Dzire and Ertiga contributed towards the strong performance of the compact, super compact and utility vehicles segments respectively; exports growth was led by A-Star. The vans segment continued its poor run posting a decline of 10% yoy (1.6% mom). The management indicated that the sales were led by festive demand and driven by diesel models; petrol models demand however continues to remain weak.

December 3, 2012

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Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Exhibit 6: Maruti Suzuki Sales trend

Segment Total sales A: Mini: M800, A-star, Alto, Wagon R A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz A: Super Compact: Dzire A: Mid-size: SX4 A: Executive: Kizashi Total passenger vehicles B: UV - Gypsy, Grand Vitara, Ertiga C: Vans: Omni, Eeco Total domestic sales Total exports
Source: Company, Angel Research

November November 2012 2011 103,200 91,772 36,679 23,849 13,502 692 71 74,793 7,439 8,650 90,882 12,318 38,921 22,159 10,403 1,433 162 73,078 9,612 82,870 8,902

% chg

YTD YTD FY2013 FY2012 12.5 732,580 681,200

% chg 7.5 (11.7) 19.0 66.2 (63.6) (58.0) 4.6 (21.8) 8.7 (1.8)

(5.8) 263,935 298,830 7.6 158,925 133,533 29.8 101,041 (51.7) (56.2) 4,248 141 55,205 76,607 72,478 60,787 11,662 336

2.3 528,290 505,148 (10.0) 38.4 97,973 73,783

180 4,032.8

4,296 1,185.0

9.7 660,102 607,417

Exhibit 7: Total volumes - Monthly sales trend

(units) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra and Mahindra

MMs automotive segment continues to witness strong traction backed by the strength of its UV portfolio MM sustained its strong volume performance, posting a better-than-expected growth of 18.2% yoy (down 9.9% mom) in its automotive segment to 48,143 units. Tractor sales too witnessed a growth of 16.8% yoy (down 17.3% mom) to 20,476 units. As a result, total volumes posted a strong growth of 17.8% yoy (down 17.3% mom) to 68,619 units. In the automotive segment, MM witnessed a strong performance across the product portfolio (ex MNAL) during the month. However, the PV segment was the primary driver of growth as sales witnessed a strong growth of 38.1% yoy (down 8.6% mom) backed by the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton. While the four-wheeler pick-up segment posted a healthy growth of 7.4% yoy (down 13.3% mom), three-wheeler sales too jumped 16.6% yoy (down 1.5% mom) during the month.

December 3, 2012

May-12

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Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Exhibit 8: Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trend

Segment Total sales Passenger vehicles Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) LCV/MHCV Exports Total automotive sales Tractor sales Domestic Tractor sales Exports Total tractor sales
Source: Company, Angel Research

November November % chg 2012 2011 68,619 24,604 14,353 6,867 931 1,388 48,143 19,757 719 20,476 58,249 17,813 13,362 5,889

YTD FY2013

YTD % chg FY2012 11.8 31.7 17.2 (1.1) (6.5) 22.8 20.7 (3.9) (4.4)

17.8 528,306 472,564 38.1 180,690 137,206 7.4 113,697 16.6 44,856 7,904 21,700 96,973 45,370 8,457 17,673

1,095 (15.0) 2,563 (45.8) 40,722 16,175 17,527

18.2 368,847 305,679 22.1 151,987 158,204 7,472 16.8 159,459 166,885

1,352 (46.8)

8,681 (13.9)

Exhibit 9: UV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: UV+four-wheel pick-up combined from November 2010

Exhibit 10: Tractor segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-10

Nov-11

May-12

May-11

May-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

December 3, 2012

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Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jul-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

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Jan-12

Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported in-line volumes benefitting from new launches and gradual recovery in exports BJAUT reported in-line volumes of 372,293 units, flat yoy and down 9.5% mom, primarily on account of sluggish sales in the motorcycle segment. Motorcycle sales declined 1.6% yoy (9.5% mom) led by weak demand in the domestic as well as export markets. Of the total motorcycle sales, Discover and Pulsar accounted for ~70% of the volumes and continue to be benefitted from the new launches, Discover 125ST and Pulsar 200NS. The three-wheeler segment registered a healthy growth of 7.2% yoy (down 9.4% mom) during the month. Export volumes posted a decline of 4% yoy (1.6% mom) as volumes in Sri Lanka are yet to recover completely. The management indicated that the retail sales outpaced the wholesale sales in November (sales of ~300,000 units) which resulted in inventory correction at the dealer end. The company is planning to launch a new 100cc motorcycle in January 2013 and expects the volumes to benefit from the new launch.

Exhibit 11: Bajaj Auto Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Three-wheelers Exports (included above) November November % chg 2012 2011 372,293 326,727 45,566 124,115 374,477 331,967 42,510 129,256 YTD FY2013 YTD % chg FY2012 (3.8) (2.8) (5.1)

(0.6) 2,911,974 3,026,703 (1.6) 2,599,060 2,673,458 7.2 312,914 (4.0) 1,056,136 1,112,702

353,245 (11.4)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Jul-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12

Volume (LHS)

% yoy growth (RHS)

(%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

December 3, 2012

Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Exhibit 13: Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0)

Nov-10

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Hero MotoCorp
HMCL witnessed sluggish growth during the month; volumes declined 6.4% yoy HMCL registered sluggish volumes during the month with total sales posting a decline of 6.4% yoy (5.1% mom) to 502,305 units. The company stated that the dispatches were lower on account of the festival holidays. We believe this could also be in order to avoid piling up of inventory at the dealer end amidst slowdown in retail demand. On the retail front, volumes jumped 7% yoy and registered sales of over 1.1mn units during the festival months of October-November 2012.

Exhibit 14: Hero MotoCorp Sales trend

November November % chg 2012 2011 Total sales 502,305 536,762
Source: Company, Angel Research

YTD FY2013

YTD FY2012

Nov-12

Sep-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jul-12

% chg (2.9)

(6.4) 4,004,615 4,122,892

Exhibit 15: HMCL Monthly sales trend

(units) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-11

Nov-10

May-11

May-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

December 3, 2012

Nov-12

Sep-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

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Auto Sector Update | November 2012

TVS Motor
TVSL posted in-line volumes during the month; Scooter sales posted a sharp decline of 15.4% yoy TVSL posted in-line volumes for November with total volumes registering a decline of 2.1% yoy (9.6% mom) to 171,837 units primarily due to 15.4% yoy (14.8% mom) decline in scooter sales. The scooter sales were down despite the festival demand as the segment continues to remain under pressure due to heightened competition. The motorcycle sales however, posted a growth of 4.6% yoy (down 9.9% mom) driven by the launch of the new 125cc motorcycle, Phoenix. TVSL registered a better-than-expected growth in three-wheeler sales (86.8% yoy) led by an impressive exports growth of 81.4% yoy (36.3% mom). The company recorded excellent retail sales during the festival season with domestic sales of 185,000 units, a growth of around 19% yoy.

Exhibit 16: TVS Motor Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total two-wheelers Exports (included above) Three-wheelers November November % chg 2012 2011 171,837 65,494 37,470 63,819 166,783 20,080 5,054 175,535 62,608 65,920 172,829 2,706 4.6 (3.2) YTD FY2013 502,415 313,418 521,193 159,416 30,058 YTD FY2012 592,055 366,734 511,299 208,701 29,875 % chg (8.9) (15.1) (14.5) 1.9 (9.1) (23.6) 0.6

(2.1) 1,367,084 1,499,963

44,301 (15.4)

(3.5) 1,337,026 1,470,088 86.8

24,271 (17.3)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 17: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-11

Jul-12

Nov-10

Nov-11

Sep-12

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

December 3, 2012

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Nov-12

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Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Exhibit 18: Scooter segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-11

Jul-12

Nov-10

Nov-11

Sep-12

May-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Outlook
We believe the long-term structural growth drivers of the Indian automobile industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance are intact, which should support a 10-12% CAGR in auto volumes over FY2012-14E. As such, we prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We remain positive on AL and TTMT.

Exhibit 19: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies AL BJAUT HMCL MSIL MM TTMT* TVSL Reco. Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral Neutral Buy Accumulate CMP (`) 28 1,927 1,489 956 273 40 TP (`) 31 45 Sales (`cr) FY13E 14,490 21,121 24,743 42,019 40,035 7,466 16,606 23,642 27,996 50,246 46,272 8,290 P/E (x) 12.5 17.7 15.4 22.5 17.5 7.4 8.4 9.7 15.7 14.0 15.8 15.2 6.1 7.2 P/BV (x) 2.3 7.3 6.6 2.6 3.9 2.0 1.4 2.0 5.9 5.2 2.2 3.3 1.6 1.2 RoE (%) 13.6 46.2 48.3 11.9 24.3 31.2 18.2 16.1 41.6 41.9 15.1 23.4 28.9 18.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 12.3 7.9 11.7 10.2 3.9 3.6 5.3 10.5 6.6 7.8 8.5 3.2 2.9 FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 16.2 7.3 9.7 36.6 15.9 11.1 3.5

1,821 1,956

319 192,330 219,770

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on December 3, 2012; *Consolidated financials

December 3, 2012

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Nov-12

Jan-11

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Auto Sector Update | November 2012

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership of the stock Ashok Leyland Tata Motors Maruti Suzuki Mahindra & Mahindra Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motor No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

December 3, 2012

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Auto Sector Update | November 2012

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