Currencies Daily Report

Monday| November 12, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| November 12, 2012

Highlights
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 84.9 levels in September. Japans gross domestic product declined to 0.9 percent in July to September quarter. Chinas trade surplus was $32 billion in the month of October. Asian markets are trading on weak note due to weak GDP data from the Japan overshadowing better Chinese exports data. Japans gross domestic product declined to 0.9 percent in July to September quarter from 0.2 percent in the earlier quarter. US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $41.5 billion in September as against a previous deficit of $43.8 billion in August. Unemployment Claims declined by 8,000 to 355,000 for the week ending on 2nd November from previous rise of 363,000 in prior week.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Nov12) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield
5686.3 18683.7 12815.39 1379.9 15181.0 1904.4

as on November 9, 2012 Prev. day

-0.9 -0.9 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.5

WoW
-0.2 -0.4 -2.1 -2.4 -3.7 -0.7

MoM
-0.3 -0.6 -4.9 -4.3 -2.1 -3.8

YoY
8.9 7.6 8.8 12.3 0.7 -0.2

57357.7 8757.6 86.60 1731.00 3259.00 7576.00

-0.3 -0.9 1.8 0.3 1.1 -0.9

-1.8 -0.1 -0.6 1.0 1.1 -3.3

-2.7 -0.1 -6.3 -1.8 -4.0 -7.2

-0.3 0.0 -9.5 -3.3 -5.1 -0.4

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and settled firm due to rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants as investors were worried over the fiscal cliff issues and its strategy to be resolved by the US. US equities settled on a bearish note on the back of continued worries that the new government in US may not be able to avoid fiscal cliff issues. Further decline in the trade deficit of the US also indicated that economy is progressing on a slower note. It touched an weekly high of 81.11 and closed at 80.89 in yesterdays trade.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
81.05 54.76 N/A N/A

as on November 9, 2012 Prev. day

0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A

WoW
1.1 -2.1 N/A N/A

MoM
1.2 -3.9 N/A N/A

YoY
3.7 -8.6 N/A N/A

Dollar/INR
The Indian rupee depreciated 1.8 percent week on week on the back of weakness in the equity markets and sustained dollar demand from importers of gold and oil and along with banks. Additionally strength in the DX along with weakness in the global markets also exerted a downside pressure on the domestic currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of increasing FIIs inflows. It touched an intra-day low of 54.79 in the last week and closed at 54.76 on Friday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 3,166.60 crores till 9th November 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 96,861.50 crores till 9th November 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of bearish Asian markets. Additionally, strength in the DX is also expected to depreciate the domestic currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook

valid for November 12, 2012 Trend Support 54.5/54.2 Resistance 55/55.2

US Dollar/INR Nov12 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Up

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| November 12, 2012

Euro/INR
The Euro declined week on week and settled 1 percent lower. Continued concerns of the Greece bailout along with strength in the DX acted as a bearish factor for the currency. Additionally, weak economic data from regions also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched a weekly low of f 1.2688 and closed at 1.271 on Friday. French Industrial Production declined by 2.7 percent in September as against a rise of 1.9 percent in August. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 85 billion Euros in September from earlier deficit of 97.7 billion Euros a month ago. Italian Industrial Production declined by 1.5 percent in September as compared to rise of 1.7 percent in August. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of mixed market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Nov12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.5/69.3 69.85/70 valid for November 12, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.2711 N/A N/A

as on November 9, 2012 Prev. day

-0.3 N/A N/A

WoW
-1.8 N/A N/A

MoM
-1.3 N/A N/A

YoY
-6.2 N/A N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound swung between gains and losses and settled with depreciation of 0.8 percent. Weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX acted as a bearish factor for the currency. Further weak economic data from the nation also pressurized the currency to depreciate. It touched a weekly low of 1.5887 and closed at 1.5898 on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Pound to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX might also cause the currency to depreciate. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Nov 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for November 12, 2012 Support 87.1/86.8 Resistance 87.65/87.9

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.5902 N/A N/A

as on November 9, 2012

Prev. day
-0.5 N/A N/A

WoW
-1.4 N/A N/A

MoM
-0.6 N/A N/A

YoY
-0.1 N/A N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| November 12, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated 1.2 percent week on week owing to weak data from the nation along with provision of announcement of stimulus measures by the government to aid recovery. However, risk aversion in the global markets towards the end of the week caused demand for the low yielding currency to rise. The currency touched a weekly low of 80.56 and closed at 79.46 on Friday. Japans gross domestic product declined to 0.9 percent in July to September quarter from 0.2 percent in the earlier quarter. Outlook In the intra-day session, we expect to yen to appreciate on the back of mixed global markets resulting from the continued Euro zone concerns which will increase the demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavorable data from the nation might cushion sharp appreciation. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Nov 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for November 12, 2012 Support 68.80/68.40 Resistance 69.50/69.90 Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
Source: Reuters 79.49

as on November 9, 2012 Prev day

0.1

WoW
-0.8

MoM
1.6

YoY
2.2

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on November 12, 2012

Indicator Prelim GDP q/q Tertiary Industry Activity m/m BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks New Loans Eurogroup Meetings Bank Holiday Country Japan Japan Japan China Euro US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am 8:00am 12 -14
th th

Actual -

Forecast -0.8% 0.0% 45.9

Previous -0.2% 0.4% 45.7

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High

All day All day

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