JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The best is yet to come

The presidents monumental victory leaves supporters wondering whether he can defy political gravity and achieve more in his second term than in his rst, writes Jonathan Freedland

he improbable journey goes on. What Barack Obama always regarded as the unlikeliest of political odysseys will now be allowed to run its full measure. By a clearer margin than many of his supporters had dared hope, the people of the United States voted to let their 44th president nish what he had started. As election night brought the familiar, intense focus on this or that county in Ohio or Florida, it was easy to lose sight of the scale of Obamas achievement. Of course becoming Americas rst black president four years ago was an unrepeatable feat, but winning four more years made history too. Obama is only the fourth Democrat since 1900 to win two full terms in the White House. Only Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt and Bill Clinton have matched his achievement. And he did it in the hardest of circumstances. The experts long believed that to win re-election with unemployment at or above 8% was to defy political gravity: no one had done it since 1940. Yet that was the jobless

24 pages of the best news, analysis and comment on Obamas second-term triumph In news Oliver Burkeman traces a night of drama and emotion across America Cameron and Miliband draw dierent lessons from the US result Ewen MacAskill, Julian Borger and Larry Elliott on the presidents in-tray In Comment Martin Kettle: Republicans must respond to the huge shift in the Hispanic vote or risk withering away Leader comment: forget who won, think instead what won healthcare reform, more taxes for the rich, gay marriage, big government In g2 Emma Brockes on how women won it for Obama, and what his victory means for them

number Obama confronted from the day he took oce until two months ago. His approval ratings had struggled to break 50%. He had been on the receiving end of a four-year assault from the right the alternative universe embodied by Fox News, which tore itself apart on air as Karl Rove refused to accept the cold, hard facts set out by Foxs own numbercrunchers which sought to other the US president, to paint him as Barack Hussein Obama, the Kenyan Marxist Muslim bent on destroying America. Despite all that he won and won convincingly with no need of recounts and not a hanging chad in sight. It was a monumental achievement, one the renewed president recognised with a magnicent speech. In Chicago before a crowd both relieved and delighted, he spoke with a force, clarity and determination that had scarcely been glimpsed in the 2012 campaign. The rhetoric was soaring for the United States of America the best is yet to come and moving but it was also rooted in the concrete. He set out the goals of his second term: Reducing our decit. Reforming our tax code. Fixing our immigration system. Freeing ourselves from foreign oil. But he also spoke of a danger that had barely featured on the campaign trail,

warning of the destructive power of a warming planet. For his supporters, including those frustrated by the timidity of much of his rst term and the lethargy of his appearance in the rst TV debate this was the Obama they had been waiting for. It brought hope ickering back to life inside Democrats who wonder if, having made history, Obama might now defy it, reversing the usual order and achieving more in his second term than in his rst. His healthcare reform will now be implemented. If he can somehow negotiate the looming scal cli, bringing tax revenues and spending into balance, Continued on page 3

Thursday 08.11.12 Published in London and Manchester 1.20

12A

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory The aftermath

Celebration time then straight

Obama still has to face Republican-led House Battle looms on scal cli of spending and debt
Ewen MacAskill Washington
Barack Obama ew back to Washington and his desk in the Oval oce yesterday hours after delivering an election victory speech in Chicago in which he called for the country to unite behind him. Obama said: You voted for action, not politics as usual, but there was little sign that that call would be answered, with the president facing the prospect of doing business with a hostile Republican-led House of Representatives for at least the next two years and a looming showdown over spending and debt the so-called scal cli . Both the Republican House Speaker, John Boehner, and the Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, spoke about a need to work together to resolve the crisis, but it could turn into one of the biggest clashes yet between the White House and Congress under Obamas presidency. While the inauguration is not until January, in effect Obama embarked on his second term yesterday. Having disappointed many supporters in his rst term, he is looking now to establish a legacy that will transform him from a middling president into a great one. As well as overseeing what he hopes will be continued economic recovery, he hopes to address issues ranging from immigration reform to investment in education and climate change, and, in foreign policy, from Iran to Israel-Palestine. As well as comfortably winning more than the required 270 electoral college votes, he also secured a higher share of the popular vote, giving him a mandate for his struggles with the Republican-led House. House Republicans, however, may not view it as a mandate. Boehner, in a statement yesterday, sounded conciliatory. He cited the need for both parties to nd common ground and take steps together to help our economy grow and create jobs, which is critical to solving our debt. Obama is reported to have phoned Boehner yesterday to begin negotiation. Reid, so often at odds with Boehner, also sounded conciliatory, saying: I look at the challenges that we have ahead of us and I reach out to my Republican colleagues in the Senate and the House. Lets come together. We know what the issues are, lets solve them. Obama, in an initially off-the-record interview during the campaign, expressed optimism of a grand bargain with the Republicans, one that eluded him last year. The trouble will come when talks move to detail, with the Republicans wanting to protect military spending while the Democrats seek cuts. Obama has called for tax increases on households earning more than $250,000; Boehner has rejected any tax increases. Shares dropped on the Dow in anticipation of continued gridlock. By lunchtime, all the major US markets were down over 300 points.

The new House, which will be formed in January, will look much like the existing one, which has a huge Republican majority. The Senate too remained little changed, with the Democrats retaining their slim majority, gaining three and losing one. In the presidential race, Romney won only one of the swing states, North Carolina, while Obama held New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa and Colorado. As of yesterday the winner of Floridas 29 electoral college votes remained undecided. With the votes still being counted, the question was whether the result would fall within the margin that automatically requires a recount. Whatever the result in Florida the election was chaotic, with huge lines forming in Miami-Dade something Obama said

needed to be fixed during his victory speech in Chicago. The long lines were blamed on Republican machinations to discourage Democrats from voting. In his victory speech in Chicago, Obama referred to the long queues to vote and said there is a need for electoral reform. He returned to the soaring rhetoric that was his trademark during the 2008 election, reprising once again his 2008 slogan about hope. Stepping up to the lectern to the upbeat strains of Stevie Wonders Signed, Sealed, Delivered, Im Yours, Obama told the ecstatic crowd of supporters: Tonight in this election, you, the American people, reminded us that while our road has been hard, while our journey has been long, we have picked ourselves up, we have fought our way back. And we know in our hearts that for the United States of America the

best is yet to come. In a speech that lasted more than 25 minutes, after paying emotional tribute to his wife, Michelle, and his daughters, Malia and Sasha as well as to his vice-president, Joe Biden Obama returned to the message that rst brought him to national attention. We are not as divided as our politics suggests, he said. Were not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are, and forever will be, the United States of America. Obama made clear he had an agenda in mind for his second term, citing changes in the tax code, immigration reform and, as he put it, an America that isnt threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet. Shortly beforehand, Romney had

phoned the president to concede. In a gracious concession speech in Boston, Romney told his supporters: This is a time for great challenges for America and I pray the president will be successful in guiding our nation. The campaign almost throughout has been a referendum on Obama. Although there was widespread disillusionment with the slow pace of economy recovery, Americans decided to stick with the incumbent. Historically, it would have been a disappointment for African Americans and many white liberals if the rst black presidency had ended in failure, halted prematurely. Timothy Garton Ash, page 34 Martin Kettle, page 35 Leader comment, page 36

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Whats next Obamas plans for the second term guardian.co.uk/usa

back to work for the president

Winning Tweet

Hug photo makes social media history

Luke Harding
The photograph of Barack Obama embracing his wife Michelle with the words four more years has set new records as the most liked and re-tweeted post in social media history. Obama posted the image at 0416 GMT, effectively claiming victory over Mitt Romney in the US presidential race. Since then it has been re-tweeted nearly 700,000 times. More than 3.23 million people have liked the image on Facebook, with over 400,000 shares; more than 100,000 were liking it every hour yesterday. The unprecedented viral success of the post confirmed the role that social media played in the campaign. In the past, election night ended when the losing candidate phoned the winner to concede defeat, with news of the phone call promptly leaked to news media. Obama pinged his tweet soon after the television networks had called victory for him in the crucial swing state of Ohio. It was another two hours and 20 minutes before the president appeared in person and gave his formal victory address to ecstatic supporters in Chicago. Obamas photo which shows him hugging his wife, eyes closed has set the standard for future presidential victors. The post also gave an opportunity for the rest of the world to congratulate Obama personally. Often in their own languages. And, in a few cases, to tell him what a lousy president he is. Awful. Ignorant, Amanda Zahn, of Illinois, wrote on

The picture of the Obamas hugging has been re-tweeted 700,000 times

Obamas Facebook page. Another poster from the same state added acidly: There goes the US economy. The majority of non-US posters, however, warmly welcomed the presidents re-election. The hug photo was shared across continents and time zones, with congratulations pouring in from Namibia, Brazil, Denmark, Chile, Kenya, Italy, Albania, and countless other countries. Several Britons also left their mark; one message read Well done Sir from England xxxxxxxx Another Briton keen to share in Obamas victory was David Cameron. The prime minister tweeted: Warm congratulations to my friend @BarackObama. Camerons message was re-tweeted a comparatively modest 1,500 times. Spare a thought, meanwhile, for Romney. His last tweet sent before he accepted defeat read: With your help, we will turn our country around and get America back on the path to prosperity. Since then his account has been silent.

The best is yet to come, vows Obama

continued from page 1 that too will endear him to posterity. But the president cannot do that alone. Action on the decit will require a grand bargain with Congress and that means the Republican party, which retained control of the House of Representatives, though Democrats remain in charge in the Senate. The risk for Obama is that, for all his renewed talk of bipartisan co-operation, he might be thwarted by all too familiar gridlock. Yet the night marked more than just the extension of the Obama presidency: it also conrmed the arrival of the Obama nation. For underpinning the presidents success was a shift in the very nature of the US electorate, with white voters accounting for a smaller share than ever before. Now 28% of American voters are non-white, a threefold increase over the last four decades. And these rising groups that make up the new America vote Democrat. That much was clear in what analyst John Heilemann called Obamas coalition of the ascendant. The president could trail Romney among white men because, polls showed, he could rely on 93% support among black Americans, 71% of Latinos, 60% of the under-30s and 55% of women. The US pundit class is fond of hailing every presidential election as the birth of a new, permanent Democratic or Republican majority. Such verdicts should be handled with care. After all, Romney came within two percentage points of Obama in the popular vote. Nevertheless, the political complexion of the American people is changing. Striking was the passage in three states of measures authorising equal marriage

for gay couples. Wisconsin elected the rst openly gay senator, Tammy Baldwin. The Obama campaign understood this new electorate and turned out its vote brilliantly. The Republicans are in the reverse position. They lost because they relied on a white vote that is shrinking. What will surely follow is a battle for the soul of the Republican party, realists pitted against purists. The realists will argue Republicans must expand their appeal if they are not to be doomed to perennial defeat. Romney won fewer Latino voters than John McCain, who won fewer than George W Bush. That was partly because, to survive the Republican primaries, Romney had to adopt a hard line on immigration, calling on migrants to self-deport. In that move, the Latino commentator Ana Navarro told CNN: He self-deported from the White House. Others will add that Republicans have to change the way they speak to women, after two candidates who suggested that women should be forced by law to bear the children of their rapists lost winnable Senate seats. The purists will brook no such change, insisting Republicans must stay true to their small government, socially conservative message. The people will come around eventually, they believe, especially if the party can nd an attractive, ideally non-white messenger say, senator Marco Rubio of Florida. The consequence could well be a Republican civil war, or period of reection and recalibration as Texas senator John Cornyn politely called it. But a change is overdue. Without it, Republicans will surely endure more nights like the one they suered on Tuesday, when they gathered in a Boston ballroom for what was meant to be a victory party a glum, all-white group staring at a giant screen, watching TV pictures from Chicago of a crowd of beaming Democrats, young and old, black and white, celebrating a victory that tasted even sweeter the second time around.

Supporters cheer President Obamas address at the glittering election night party in Chicago to celebrate overcoming the Republican challenge from Mitt Romney Photograph: Matt Rourke/AP

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory The night

What they said
If a play were opening tonight, I think the title should be The uppin Ass-Whuppin Cometh
James Carville, rville, Democrat t strategist t

As a mother and as a grandmoth mother who raises boy children the symbolism of having a black man occupy the highest oce is something that can make ch my children very aspirational to know that this is possible, you know know, in their lifetime
Zind Zindzi Mandela, campaigner, and daug daughter of Nelson Mandela

Please excuse the appearance of this place. Two days ago, it was under two feet of water
A polling station attendant in Hoboken, New Jersey

Im going to go o back home and nty run for county council or something
Vice-president Joe nt Biden on what at would do if Obama had lost ost

We made the mistake of m p not playing basketball onc once. We wont make tha that mistake again
Obamas fo former press secretary Robert Gibbs on why the president Gibb plays bask basketball on election days

Early tension drains away as victory is signed, sealed and delivered

While the president addressed an ecstatic crowd, Republicans scrapped in the studios
Oliver Burkeman New York
The sense of optimism among Democrats had been building all evening: a nervous hopefulness at rst, with ngernails digging into palms, gradually edged out by something closer to condence. Everyone anticipated a draining night. But it was earlier than almost anyone expected 11.12pm on the east coast when NBC, followed immediately by CNN and Fox, called Ohio for Barack Obama, eectively ending the uncertainty. In a bland suite at Chicagos Fairmont hotel, the Obamas and Bidens embraced; four miles away, the McCormick Place convention centre erupted with ear-splitting screams. At what had been billed as Mitt Romneys victory party, in a modest ballroom at the Boston convention centre, there was silence while on Fox News, Republican strategist Karl Rove became a symbol of the collision between reality and his partys beliefs, refusing to accept his own networks account of what happened. It was another half hour before Romney called Obama to concede, and it was at about 1.30am eastern time that the re-elected president arrived on stage at his victory rally, anked by his wife and daughters, to the strains of Stevie Wonders Signed, Sealed, Delivered. Obama looked exhausted and greyhaired, but proved as energetic as he had ever been. America moves forward, he told the ecstatic crowd, because you rearmed the spirit that has triumphed over war and depression, the spirit that has lifted this country from the depths of despair to the great heights of hope, the belief that while each of us will pursue our own individual dreams, we are an American family, and we rise or fall together as one people. He thanked the woman who agreed to marry me, his daughters, his vicepresident, and the best campaign team and volunteers in the history of politics, and praised the Romneys for choosing to give back to America through public service. He thanked those who had queued for hours to vote and by the way, we have to x that. America, he concluded at 2am, in rhetoric of a kind unheard during the campaign, was not as divided as our politics suggest. Were not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. Earlier on Tuesday, Romney had claimed only to have written a victory speech and it showed. The concession speech he delivered shortly before Obamas victorious one was indisputably gracious: I pray that the president will be successful in guiding our nation, he said, to civil applause. But for a man who had been running for president virtually full-time for ve years, it felt oddly empty: no big ideas, no hints of his deepest motivations for having tried to reach the White House. After the customary God bless America, Romneys last words perhaps his last ever on a national political stage were: Thanks, guys. Then he strode o to embrace his wife and sons. The surprisingly short election night had begun in earnest six hours earlier, when voting ocially concluded in the rst six states. Because of their role in declaring the state-by-state outcome before all votes are counted, US TV networks did not cover the evenings events so much as create them and they did so cautiously, still haunted by the memory of calling Florida prematurely in 2000. Even their studio sets seemed relatively restrained, notwithstanding CNNs gimmick of projecting red and blue lights on the Empire State building in proportion to the unfolding tallies. (The worst night was ABCs: its studio suered a prolonged power cut, while host Diane Sawyer her demeanour variously described as o-kilter and fatigued fell into abrupt silences, and mispronounced Obamas name.) The rst calls were no-brainers Kentucky for Romney, Vermont for Obama but CNNs Wolf Blitzer welcomed them with an excitement it seemed unlikely he would be able to sustain until sunrise. Fortunately, he did not have to. Soon after 9pm, Pennsylvania was declared for Obama, ending the talk always implausible that Romney might have had a chance there. Obama won Wisconsin and pulled o a more surprising victory in New Hampshire, and the tone of the night began to change. Romneys victory in North Carolina prompted cheers in Boston but, by then, Democrats had allowed themselves to exhale. A trickle

Obama speech highlights

Tonight, more than 200 years after a former colony won the right to determine its own destiny, the task of perfecting our union moves forward. It moves forward because you reafrmed the spirit that has triumphed over war and depression, the belief that while each of us will pursue our own individual dreams, we are an American family, and we rise or fall together as one nation and as one people. I know that political campaigns can sometimes seem small, even silly. But if you ever get the chance to talk to folks who turned out at our rallies or saw folks working late at a campaign oce in some tiny county far away from home, youll discover something else. Youll hear the determination in the voice of a young eld organiser whos working his way through college and wants to make sure every child has that same opportunity. Youll hear the pride of a volunteer going door to door because her brother was nally hired when the local auto plant added another shift. Youll hear the deep patriotism in the voice of a military spouse whos working the phones late at night to make sure that no one who ghts for this country ever has to ght for a job or a roof over their head when they come home. Thats why we do this. Thats what politics can be. Thats why elections matter. We want our children to live in an America that isnt burdened by debt, that isnt weakened by inequality, that isnt threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet. We believe in a generous America, a compassionate America, a tolerant America. This country has more wealth than any nation, but thats not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military in history, but thats not what makes us strong. What makes America exceptional are the bonds that hold together the most diverse nation on Earth, the belief that our destiny is shared, that this country only works when we accept certain obligations to one another and to future generations. I believe we can build on the progress weve made and continue to ght for new jobs and new security for the middle class. I believe we can keep the promise of our founding, the idea that if youre willing to work hard, it doesnt matter who you are or where you come from or what you look like. You can make it here in America if youre willing to try. I believe we can seize this future together because we are not as divided as our politics suggests. Were not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are, and forever will be, the United States of America. And together, with your help and Gods grace, we will continue our journey forward and remind the world just why it is that we live in the greatest nation on earth. Thank you, America.

of good news from the Senate kept them buoyed: by the end of the night, America would have elected its rst openly gay senator, Tammy Baldwin, in Wisconsin and the leftwing hero Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, while denying oce to Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, the two Republicans whose remarks on rape had angered many. And Maine and Maryland became the rst states to approve gay marriage by popular vote, rather than a court decision. As the night unfolded, it was becoming clear that there was another major winner besides Obama: data. The race had been characterised by a stando

They called Ohio for Obama ... Chicagos McCormick Place convention centre erupted in screams

Mitt Romney had claimed only to have written a victory speech and it showed

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Comment and analysis What the Obama victory means guardian.co.uk/commentisfree

Did I vote?
A Detroit voter gets his priorities right after collapsing and technically dying in a polling booth until being resuscitated by a passing rst-aider

I bought myself a new moustache comb, because I know Im gonna be needing it

Obama strategist David Axelrod said hed shave his decades-old moustache if his boss lost certain key states. Come election night, he was sure the tache was safe

Liberty versus tyranny is on the ballot today, and Im not g exaggerating.

Rightwing shock-jock ck-jock Rush Limbaugh gh keeps things cool ool

Were losing our Judeo-Christian heritage that our forefathers fought and died for
Romney voter and head of Womens Prayer International, Joan Courtney

I am glad that the person who considers Russia as the No. 1 enemy wont be the president of the large, inuential state
Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev never liked Mitt Romney

President Obama has spent four years in oce, unfortunately he hasnt done much for the Palestinian-Israeli conict it seems to us really we have to choose between the bad and the worst.
An aide to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas reacts

Forecasting

All hail the nerd who predicted the right result in all 50 states
ne big winner of election night was the statistical guru and unashamed numbers nerd Nate Silver, who correctly predicted not only Barack Obamas victory but the outcome of the presidential contest in all 50 states. Silver, the political forecaster at the New York Times, infuriated Republicans in the closing days of the race by arguing on his blog FiveThirtyEight. com that Obamas chances of winning were steadily increasing. His nal forecast gave Obama a 90.9% chance of victory. Silver also forecast 332 electoral college votes for Obama against 206 for Romney the actual result, assuming Obamas Florida victory is conrmed. In his just-published book, The Signal and the Noise, Silver recounts how his love of data and mathematical models transformed him into the USs leading political seer. In 2003, bored with a consulting job, he designed Pecota, a system to predict the performance of Major League Baseball players. Its probeball abilistic forecasts proved more accurate than those of any other system. Before the 2008 presidential elec8 tion he founded FiveThirtyEight (the iveThirtyEight number refers to the number of electoral college votes up for grabs, with 270 a majority). Silver correctly predicted the winner of d Obama v John McCain in 49 out of Cain 50 states, as well as the winner of all 35 Senate races. ces. This prognosticative cative feat made him a houseousehold name; he had more than 360,000 Twitter foltter lowers at the last count. In 2010 the New York Times licensed his blog. s Republicans joked that d he was actually from the om future.

United we stand Barack Obama celebrates with his wife Michelle after a triumphant victory speech in which he said that America was not as divided as our politics suggest Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images

On Tuesday night, congratulations on doing it again poured in from fans. Larry G from Los Angeles wrote: Nate youre the man. I told my friends we had it in the bag? Although I still had plenty of anxiety. Edward, also from LA, posed the inevitable Hollywood question: So Nate, who would you like to be played in the movie of your life? Silvers overarching thesis is that in an era of big information, data can be used to predict mans destiny. These themes, of course, have been around for a long time not least in the plays of Shakespeare. Silver notes that Julius Caesar is a classic example of prediction (beware the ides of March), with Caesar a bit like Karl Rove and some other members of the Republican party wilfully ignoring the signs that point to his own demise. But Silver also acknowledges that big data can get it badly wrong. The US failed to anticipate the 9/11 attacks; nor did its models forecast the global nancial crisis. Political predictions have gone awry in the past, with pundits forecasting a pund landslide 11-point victory for Al Gore vict against George Bush in 2000. Inevitably, Silver writes, pre prediction isnt failsafe and connects subjective and objective reality reality. Still, Silvers conservative critco ics who denigrated his methods denigrate and accused him of partisan bias today look rather silly. Geekdom has again triumphed: the trium 34-year-old analyst describes himself on Twitter as a sports/politics/food geek. sports/po He is also an Obama supals porter. The forecasters Th task, he writes, is to w separate out the truth (the ou signal) from what distracts us from the truth (the noise). On this occasion he has done occas it admirably. Luke Harding

Winning strategy
between those who championed swingstate polls, showing a slight but steady Obama lead, and those whose gut told them the race was a dead heat, or going against the president. For much of the campaign, Fox pundits spun a version of reality in which a Romney landslide was looming. But on Tuesday, at last, everyone was forced to depend on the same set of facts. So far, what weve seen, said Foxs Megyn Kelly, is that the polls were right. Yes, her grave-looking co-host Brit Hume agreed. Its a perplexing time for many of us right now if things continue in this trend, Sarah Palin told the network. (Afterwards, she would call Romneys defeat a catastrophic setback.) Around the time the last polls closed, at 11pm, the Denver Post newspaper, to the surprise of many, called Colorado for Obama. But Romney supporters at the Mile High stadium overlooking Denver tried to keep their spirits up. Im nervous, but full of hope, said Cathy Swartwood, gazing at a TV screen. Its the rst time Im afraid for my country. Obama is taking us in the direction of socialism. Roves refusal to accept Foxs decisive Ohio decision, at about 11.15pm, prompted a surreal dispute between the network and George Bushs former right hand man, whom it employs as a commentator. His sources in the Romney camp, he insisted, were not ready to concede the state yet. Kelly, declaring the stando awkward, set o down the studios back corridors, a camera following her, to confront the networks statisticians. As Democrats celebrated, the Republican recriminations were beginning.

Cannabis landmark
As well as the presidential contest, Americans voted on a series of initiatives ranging from the legalisation of marijuana, to same-sex marriage. Voters in 38 states considered more than 170 propositions some on divisive issues such as abortion, others on hunting, shing and trapping or whether a bridge should be built between Michigan and Canada. In California a measure passed to raise taxes by $6bn annually to improve education. By 54% to 46% voters approved the plan by Governor Jerry Brown to rescue the states crumbling and underfunded schools. Colorado and Washington became the rst states to legalise cannabis for recreational use. In Oregon, however, a similar proposition was rejected. Supporters said they hoped the vote would lead to an eventual change in federal law, under which any possession or sale of marijuana is still illegal. Food companies scored a signicant victory in California where a measure that would have required them to label food made from GM crops was defeated. Food and biotech companies had spent millions on the campaign. A California ballot to abolish the death penalty on cost grounds was heading for defeat. But voters agreed to soften a punitive three strikes law that gives longer sentences to habitual criminals. Luke Harding

Some argued that Romney had been insuciently rightwing; others that the partys failure to appeal to Latino and younger voters explained the loss. The most comforting option though the polling data did not support it was to blame Hurricane Sandy, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who had vocally praised Obamas response to the storm. On Twitter, meanwhile, Donald Trump called for a march on Washington and a revolution, while the most unpleasant instant response probably came from Foxs Bill OReilly: Obama wins because its not a traditional America anymore. The white establishment is the minority. People want things. There was grudging respect for the Democratic ground game Barack Obama is one of the greatest politicians in American history, wrote the conservative John Podhoretz. After [2008s] vague message of hope and change, he has just shifted gears and won a second term with a tough-minded, hard-grinding state-by-state get-out-the-vote eort that overcame this fundamental fact: he shouldnt have won at all. But he had and comfortably ahead in the popular vote, too. Before long, the cable-news arguments over Ohio were rendered decisively irrelevant: Obamas victory in Colorado was conrmed, and Nevada was added to his column. Apart from North Carolina and Florida, where he held a slim lead, but where counting continued yesterday he had swept all the swing states. Speaking at McCormick Place, Obama made clear his belief that the four years ahead would be challenging ones. But for one night, at least, his supporters permitted themselves the deepest of sighs of relief. Additional reporting by Rory Carroll

Best ever campaigners secured election with tech and targeting

Ed Pilkington Columbus
When Barack Obama thanked his loyal supporters in his Chicago victory speech, he did so in unusual terms, raising his hat to the best campaign team and volunteers in the history of politics. The best. The best ever. That was more than the gushing of a man who had just won a second term in the White House. It was a statement of fact about a well-organised operation that will be the model for political campaigns around the world for years to come. The 2012 Obama For America (OFA) campaign was the culmination of the presidents belief in the power of neighbourhood action that he acquired as a community organiser in poor areas of Chicago in the 1980s. That faith in bottom-up organising was combined this year with a massive digital database to produce a campaign that was simultaneously hyperlocalised and rigorously centralised. At the beating heart of the operation was a gargantuan database of information about millions of people, including their voting records, occupation and income, housing status, family connections and interests. That was linked by customised software called Dashboard, giving volunteers access to the database while knocking on voters doors. Obama had one huge advantage over Mitt Romney time and he used it very well. While Romney had to wait until he had secured his partys nomination in May to build a ground operation, Obama had continued campaigning locally since 2008. He created a matrix of eld oces that were concentrated in the swing states. In Ohio, the state that delivered the presidents victory shortly after 11pm Eastern Time, Obama For America had no fewer than 130 oces with paid sta and Dashboard technology. Romney, by contrast, had 40 Ohio oces and his volunteers had to make do with digital tools bought o the shelf. Mitch Stewart, OFAs director in the battleground states, and Jeremy Bird its national eld director, explained this week that they had organised almost 700,000 volunteer shifts to get out the vote in the nal four days a blitzkreig that worked. OFA had registered 1.8 million voters in swing states almost double that which had been achieved in 2008. Above all, it facilitated direct contact between Obama sta, volunteers and undecided voters. The Obama camp believes with missionary fervour that friendship, contact and the personal touch are how you win elections. Other emphas es were on social media and there was also a foray into smart television targeting technology that targets cable TV adverts to an area of a few blocks. So when Obama stood in front of the Chicago crowd on Tuesday night and praised the best campaign team and volunteers in the history of politics he was making a point. Behind those words lay an organisation that is certain to change the way elections are fought long into the future. And he knew it.

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory How they voted

Republicans lose out after war against women

Female voters back Obama by 38% margin over rival Akin and Mourdock pay price for rape comments
Karen McVeigh New York Julian Borger
If Republicans did wage a war against women in the 2012 election campaign, then yesterday it was clear that the women had won. Once the polling data had been analysed, one startling fact emerged unmarried women backed the president by an incredible 38% margin over Mitt Romney. Across the board, the votes of women, who turned out in record numbers, played a central role in re-electing Barack Obama for a second term. Female politicians also made huge strides as a record number of women were elected to Congress all but one of them a Democrat. These statistics delivered a powerful message to conservative politicians that attempts to redene rape or interfere with hard-won reproductive rights would not be tolerated. During the election campaign, the Republican party was accused of a war against women over issues such as birth control and abortion. Todd Akin, running unsuccessfully for the senate in Missouri, claimed women had biological ways to shut down pregnancy after a legitimate rape to support his opposition to abortion, in any circumstances including pregnancy from rape. Richard Mourdock, the Republican senate candidate in Indiana, said during a debate that if a pregnancy resulted from rape it is something that God intended to happen. Like Akin, he was defeated by his Democratic opponent. But the driving force behind female voting patterns could not be boiled down to so-called womens issues alone; the economy was a key motivating factor. Terry ONeill, president of the National Organisation for Woman, said: It is economic issues. Sure at a certain point, its also about rights but, at a more immediate level, its about survival. When you look at unmarried women, they are very often the head of their families or taking care of elders. What they saw in Mitt Romney was someone who had disdain for them as part of the 47% [who he said had become dependent on government benets]. He wanted to cut afterschool programmes, Head Start [an educational programme], food stamps and job training programmes. She said the Republicans stance, including Romneys pledge to get rid of Planned Parenthood, a key womens healthcare provider that also carries out abortions, was important to unmarried women for economic reasons. Planned Parenthood offers medical services at a low price. When you are struggling economically, that sort of thing is your bread and butter. Two-thirds of minimum wage workers are women and the minimum wage has not gone up in the last few years. If you dont have access to reliable reproductive healthcare, you are going to have a hard job surviving. One in three women under the age of 45 in the US have an abortion. Its common and its necessary. Lisa Maatz, policy director of the American Association of University Women, said: In this election, young women really understood what their mothers have been saying about the rights they have fought for. They are not set in stone. When young women hear politicians say that birth control should be illegal like Rick Santorum did and all-male panels talking about birth control, it all adds up. Birth control was a huge economic issue, said Maatz. Women did not vote with their ladyparts; they voted with their pocketbooks like they always do. Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster and president of Lake Research Partners, said it was a historic election for women in a number of ways and it proves that you dont make women mad. She said womens votes drove a number of women to the Senate and won the races for Claire McCaskill, who was up against Akin, and Joe Donnelly, the candidate who defeated Mourdock. Exit polling showed that McCaskill had more of the female vote than she did in 2006 and it was overwhelmingly from women aged 18-44. A majority of Missouri voters supported abortion and three-quarters of them came out for McCaskill. Polling for the Donnelly/Mourdock contest showed a similar pattern, with 52% of women voting for Donnelly and 42% for Mourdock. Male voters were almost deadlocked, according to the Washington Examiner. The election result could also leave a profound impact on reproductive rights indirectly through the supreme court. Four of the current justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Anthony Kennedy, Antonin Scalia and Stephen Breyer are in their seventies, so it seems likely that the president will get to nominate at least one replacement over the next four years. A Romney win could have led to the court being tilted decisively against Roe v Wade, the landmark 1973 decision guaranteeing the right to abortion under most conditions.

Electoral college votes

303 Barack Obama

Washington
55.2%

Montana
55%

Oregon
53.4%

Shannon County, South Dakota Recorded the highest vote for Obama: 93.4% of votes. Romney only got 188 votes there, or 6%

Idaho
64.6%

Wyoming
69.3%

Nevada Utah
52.3% 72.7%

Colorado
51.2%

California
States won, % vote 59.1%

Counties won, % vote Obama

40 50 60 70

New Mexico Arizona

55% 52.9%

Romney

Women elected

Local votes by county

This map shows votes for Obama and Romney by US county complete reported votes as we went to press

Clean sweep in New Hampshire

New Hampshire has become the rst state in US history to send an allfemale delegation to Washington DC after a remarkable evening for women politicians in the state. As well as electing two Congresswomen, the Granite State also voted overwhelmingly for a female governor, Maggie Hassan. New Hampshire had already selected women to serve in both its Senate seats. The Democratic candidates who were celebrating yesterday were helped by a grassroots fundraising campaign dedicated to improving the gender balance in American politics. Both Ann McLane Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter, who defeated incumbent Republicans to enter Congress, had nancial and campaign support from the political action committee Emilys List, which tries to get pro-choice Democratic female candidates elected. Hassan beneted from more than $700,000 of spending from the group. Highlighting the voting record of vulnerable Republicans, specically in issues of abortion and contraception, is a key part of the success of Emilys List. The organisation actively seeks out potential female candidates for Congress, Senate and governor, as well as supporting women who have already decided to run for oce. Emilys List is so proud of New Hampshire tonight, said its president, Stephanie Schriock. I was just in New Hampshire last week campaigning with Senator Jeanne Shaheen and our fantastic 2012 candidates and the energy was incredible. Carol, Annie, and Maggie are exactly the kinds of leaders New Hampshire women and families need to push back against the Republican war on women and build a more progressive America. Emilys List was set up by political fundraiser Ellen Malcolm. The name is an acronym Early money is like yeast a reference to the importance of receiving large donations early in a campaign. Adam Gabbatt

Who voted for who? The exit polls

Vote by gender
Obama Romney Other/no answer Men (47% of voters)

Colorado Backed Obama with 50% of the vote - the rst time the state has backed a Democrat for a second term in 76 years. Latino population's vote for the president was key here

Alaska Hawaii
55%

45%

52%

70.6%

Women (53% of voters)

55%

44%

Vote by gender and race

White men (34% of voters)

County data not available

35%

62% 56% 87%

Vote by age
18-29 (19% of voters)

White women (38%)

Vote by race
White (72% of voters)

42% 60% 37% 45%

Black men (5%)

39%
African American (13%)

59%

30-44 (27%)

52%
45-64 (38%)

Black women (8%)

96%
Latino men (5%)

93%
Latino (10%)

47%
65+ (16%)

51%
Latino women (6%)

65% 76%

33%
Asian (3%)

71%

27%

44%

56%

23%

73%

26%

The fresh coalition that led to second election win

Ed Pilkington Columbus, Ohio

Barack Obama has promised to lead America for the next four years in the spirit of a common destiny, but exit polls tell a dierent truth: that he was re-elected to the White House not by the united will of the people but by discrete elements of a historically divided electorate. The coalition that Obama so successfully put together four years ago was very evident again on Tuesday among the African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans and young voters who turned out for him in droves.

African Americans

There was much speculation among pundits this year that enthusiasm lev-

els among black Americans were down compared with the exceptional scenes four years ago. They were spectacularly confounded though on Tuesday and in early voting when African Americans proved to be just as dependable for Obama as in 2008, giving him 93% of their vote. There was no way the president would have gotten to 270 electoral votes without the black vote, it was crucial, said Benjamin Jealous, president of civil rights group the NAACP. Jealous put the huge black turnout partly down to an adverse reaction to the policies of Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential candidate. His budget was so stark and terrifying for many African Americans and working people of all colours that it made the choice clear.

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Get the numbers Demographics, Democrats and all the election data guardian.co.uk/datablog

206

270 electoral college votes were needed to win out of 538

29 (Florida) undecided but leaning to Democrat

Iowa Voters gave Obama 52% of the vote in another key battleground. More than half of Iowa voters said the economy was the top issue facing the country, according to results from exit polling, and the decit was the top issue for almost one-fth of voters

Mitt Romney

States won
Glenwood Plt, Maine Smallest electorate with six voters. Four of them voted for Romney New Hampshire First battleground state win for Obama in a state that was too close to call

North Dakota
58.7%

Vermont Minnesota
52.8% 56.3%
Florida to be conrmed

67%

Maine

South Dakota
57.9%

Wisconsin
52.7%

Michigan
53.7%

Ohio Key swing state where Obama won by a two to one margin. Solid backing from blue collar workers after the President's auto industry bailout

New York New Hampshire 52.2%

62.7%

Iowa Nebraska
60.5% 52.1%

Massachusetts 60.9%

Pennsylvania Illinois Indiana

57.3% 54.3%

Ohio
50.1%

51.9%

Rhode Island 63.1% Connecticut 57.9% New Jersey 57.9%

West Virginia Kansas Missouri

59.9% 53.9% 62.3%

Delaware 58.6% Virginia Maryland 61.2%

50.7%

Kentucky
60.5%

Tennessee Oklahoma
66.8% 59.5%

North Carolina
50.6%

Arkansas
60.5%

South Carolina
54.9%

Mississippi
55.4%

Alabama
60.7%

Georgia
53.4%

Electoral college votes won

Louisiana Texas
57.2% 58.5%

Harris County, Texas Contains Houston. The most voters for each candidate in a county that was evenly split between them. Romney got 579,068 votes, Obama 579,070

Florida
Florida Tight race that may yet entail the counting of thousands of absentee votes next week. Last night, Obama was ahead by 46,000 votes, or 0.6% of the turnout

49.9%
Florida to be conrmed

King County, Texas Romney's highest vote: 95.9%, or 139 votes. Obama got 6

Vote by income
Less than $50k (41% of voters)

By religious service attendance Senate results

Weekly (42% of voters) 100 seats

House of Representatives results

435 seats

60%
$50k-$100k (31%)

38%

39%
Occasionally (40%)

59%

46%
$100k+ (28%)

52%
Never (17%)

55%

43%

44%

54%

62%

34%

53 Democratic seats 45 Republican seats 2 others

191 Democratic seats 232 Republican seats 12 undecided

SOURCE: AP, CNN, REAL CLEAR POLITICS, NYT

The veteran Democrat Jesse Jackson told the Guardian that attempts by Republican politicians around the US to impose voting restrictions over the past 18 months had also angered black voters. The attempts to suppress the vote became a stimulus. It woke people up who might have been sleeping, he added.

Hispanics

The exit polls tell a doubly important story when it comes to Americas Latino population. First, their power is on the rise they comprised 10% of the electorate this year, up from 9% in 2008, and that trajectory can only continue as some 600,000 eligible Hispanics reach the voting age every year. Second, Obamas support among Latino people has grown. In 2008, he

had the backing of about 67%. This time the gure rose to 71%. That may be a reection of the late llip the president gave Hispanics this June, when he granted a two-year deferral of deportation for young Latinos living in the US without documents. But it also has much to do with the hostile stance that Mitt Romney took on immigration during the primary race for the Republican nomination, when he talked about self-deportation. Frank Sharry, director of the immigration reform group Americas Voice, pointed out that Latinos were a sizeable presence in four of the seven key battleground states Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. The common theme in the growing Latino electorate in these states was that they dont like to be disrespected

by Republicans calling them illegals m and talking about self-deportation, ortation, he said.

Asian Americans delivered another whopping vote of condence to the nce Democratic candidate, siding with ng him by 74% to 25%. That 49-point 9-point margin was up dramatically from y 27 points in 2008. The Asian American demographic is currently relatively negligible, with only three per cent of voters describing themselves as Asian American in election exit polls. But this is denitely one to watch Asian Americans make up almost 6%

Asian Americans

of the US population and are the fastest popul growing race gr group; they recently overtook Hispanic p people in terms of the number of immigrants who enter the imm country every y year.

Young voters v

In 2008, young voters and stu200 dents were a critical force within w coalition of people who rst the coa projected Obama into the proje White Wh House. On that occasion, twoO thirds of 18- to 29-year-olds th backed him, a proportion ba that th slipped a little this year ye to 60%. That decline in youth enthusiasm may be partly a en sign sig that young Americans are particularly anxious

about whether or not they will nd a job when they leave college. It may also have something to do with the fact that Obama waged a less exuberant, more sober campaign this year that had less youth appeal. But he still triumphed with young voters in comparison to Romney. Melissa Miller, an associated professor of political science at Bowling Green state university in northern Ohio, said it was notable that Obama and his running mate Joe Biden made many more visits to Ohio campuses this year. They also heavily attacked Romney for his advice to young people that they should borrow money if you have to from your parents. That became a big laugh line in the presidents stump speech, and it hurt Romney, Miller said.

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory

Warmth and wariness around the

Barack Obamas re-election sparked delight in Africa but elsewhere saw a more measured response, tinged with hope and expectation
China
For one Chinese citizen, following the US polls had a certain voyeuristic thrill. For us, the US presidential election is the same as watching an [adult] movie, he wrote on the popular Sina Weibo microblog service, we cannot participate, but we are willing to stare at it. Like many in China, he seemed struck by the contrast with his countrys own leadership transition, a process that formally begins with the opening of the 18th party congress today. On the one hand, the handover is deeply mysterious, with the new elite selected behind the scenes by current leaders and party elders. On the other, it is inevitable: Xi Jinping has long been heir apparent to Hu Jintao. The future Chinese leaders are conrmed, so we can only concern ourselves with the American election, wrote another user. Chinas foreign ministry said President Hu had congratulated Barack Obama on his re-election, and noted the positive progress in bilateral relations over the past four years. Tania Branigan Beijing solution to the stalemate over Tehrans nuclear programme. Direct talks with the US have ocially been beyond the pale for Iranian ocials since the two countries broke o diplomatic relations in 1979. But as Obama takes the mandate for a second term, senior gures are signalling that such negotiations are possible. Talks with the US are not taboo, nor forbidden, said Mohammd-Javad Larijani, the head of the human rights council in Irans judiciary.If it benets us, we can hold talks with America even at the bottom of hell. But relations with the US would not be returning to normality overnight, warned Larijanis brother, Sadeq, the head of the judiciary. Saeed Kamali Dehghan a severe deterioration of relations between Pakistan and the US, especially since the killing of Osama bin Laden by US special forces in a northern Pakistani town in May last year. Controversial drone strikes have also increased markedly under Obama. .Jason Burke

Middle East
Reaction in the Middle East to Barack Obamas re-election has ranged from wariness to disappointment. Obamas Cairo speech was a beacon on the hill that steadily dimmed throughout the past four years. Egypts Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, expressed the hope that a second term would strengthen friendship between Washington and Cairo. In Saudi Arabia and Jordan, both US allies, there was no immediate ocial response. Lebanese leaders oered pro-forma congratulations, with the beleaguered prime minister, Najib Miqati, suggesting a second four years may give new momentum to stalled bids to bring peace. In Syria, the opposition was more forthcoming. Things will move after the election, said a senior leader of the military council, an exiled group of senior ocers who have defected. We have been waiting for this moment. Now you will see a dierence. Martin Chulov Beirut

Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, there had been little interest in the election, probably because most people felt US policy towards their country was already broadly xed, with a Nato-agreed deadline of 2014 for the withdrawal of most troops. President Hamid Karzai and other ocials, including the governor of Kandahar province, the Talibans birthplace, sent congratulations to Obama. Karzai, whose relationship with the US has often been stormy, said he hoped Obamas second term would allow greater co-operation between the two countries. The Taliban were less welcoming. America should focus on its domestic challenges, and leave Afghanistan as soon as possible, they said. Emma Graham-Harrison Kabul

Russia
The Kremlin was slow in extending its congratulations to Barack Obama, waiting until after midday in Moscow, but it said the news was very positively received. The president, Vladimir Putin, sent Obama an ocial telegram, the contents of which were not disclosed. In general the Kremlin received the news about Barack Obamas election victory very positively, said Putins spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, the Interfax news agency reported. We are hoping for a positive start to the two-sided relationship and co-operation between Russia and the USA. Howard Amos Moscow

Africa
On a wall of the US ambassadors residence in Pretoria hangs a unique photograph: the silhouette of Barack Obama bending to shake the hand of a smiling Nelson Mandela. From dawn yesterday, the framed picture formed part of the backdrop to rolling election coverage. There was little doubt who the South Africans present were rooting for. We all need an Obama presidency, said Mandelas ex-wife, Winnie MadikizelaMandela. Obamas victory speech brought tears to my eyes. President Jacob Zuma oered his own congratulations. We value our relations with the United States and look forward to strengthening bilateral co-operation in the years to come, he said. Obamas victory was immensely popular across the continent, nowhere more so than in Kogelo, the Kenyan village where his late father was born. Obamas stepgrandmother, Mama Sarah, was quoted by the Daily Nation newspaper as saying: Much as I must thank the American people for this gesture, victory is Africas as it solidies our position in world leadership. The chorus of congratulation was joined by the Nigerian president, Goodluck Jonathan, whose own election campaign borrowed conspicuously from Obamas. A government statement said: President Jonathan welcomes president Obamas victory in an intensely fought presidential race as an endorsement by the good people of the United States of his leadership, progressive world view and the very good work he has done in the past four years towards ending global economic depression and fostering global peace and security. In Zimbabwe, which is facing its own election next year, the education minister, David Coltart, tweeted: Congratulations @BarackObama on your victory. My prayer is that you will use your 2nd term to help the #peace process in #Zimbabwe. David Smith Pretoria

Pakistan
The ocial reaction from the Pakistani diplomats was icily correct: President Asif Ali Zardari has warmly felicitated President Barack Obama on his re-election as the president of the United States of America, said a statement issued by Pakistans ministry of foreign aairs. The president expressed the hope that the relationship between Pakistan and the US would continue to prosper during President Obamas new term in oce. Obamas rst term was marked by

Indian university students celebrate the news of President Obamas re-election at a party in

Analysis Obamas second

Obama now has four more years and a second chance to deliver on his promise to become an agent of change in the world. The logic of a second term will certainly push him to try. All presidents want an enduring legacy, and an obdurate, even vengeful, Republican majority in the House of Representatives will send Obama in search of one abroad, where he will enjoy a freer hand. Obama has pulled American forces out of Iraq. By the end of 2014, US combat troops will have left Afghanistan. He has managed so far to keep the US out of the Syrian conict, but aid to the armed opposition, overt and covert, is bound to creep up as the conict drags on. The greatest looming crisis oers the greatest opportunity. Iran is in the balance, but Obama also has a chance to avert another war in the Middle East and nally earn the Nobel peace prize he won at the beginning of his rst term. A new round of international talks is due at the end of the month. The US has been holding secret bilateral discussions with Tehran in parallel, and Obama signalled publicly in a presidential debate that his administration is prepared to negotiate one-on-one. The outlines of a possible deal are clear: Iran gives up production of 20%-enriched uranium (the biggest proliferation threat) in return for sanctions relief. It also wins the right to carry

Iran
Iranian ocials have long said there was little dierence between the two candidates, but Obamas victory has reinforced hopes of a diplomatic

Julian Borger

Gallery The world welcomes Obamas election victory guardian. co.uk/ inpictures

he last time a triumphant Barack Obama appeared before thousands of cheering supporters in Chicago and promised change, there was a sense that the election of Americas rst black president, whose middle name was Hussein, would transform the world. Since that moment in 2008, the world has indeed been transformed but not by Obama. The US role in the Arab spring, the great tectonic shift of his rst term, was both wavering and largely irrelevant. Irans nuclear programme advanced steadily no matter what the US did, threatening to trigger a new age of nuclear proliferation. Washington had little choice but to look on in wonder and apprehension at Chinas phenomenal economic rise.

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Track the global reaction The worlds response to Obamas victory mapped guardian.co.uk/world/us-elections-2012

globe as friend and foe take stock

Israel reaction
It was hard to imagine that champagne corks popped in the Israeli prime ministers Jerusalem residence as Barack Obama made his victory speech. Judging by the swiftly-delivered ocial response, there is no problem: Binyamin Netanyahu and Obama will continue their close, warm and strategically-aligned partnership. No one who has observed the deepening chill between Obama and Netanyahu over the past four years is likely to buy that. But, assuming Netanyahu is still PM after Israels general election on 22 January, both men will be forced to recalibrate their relationship. Obama has the moral advantage as the Israeli leader was widely perceived to have openly backed a Romney win. If the US leader is inclined to make nice, a possibility is a presidential visit to Israel in 2013 something missing from his rst term. But some believe Obama will seek payback for Netanyahus perceived high-handedness. Netanyahus ocial response to the result was, of course, congratulatory. The strategic union between Israel and the US is stronger than ever, he asserted. But two issues will be key over the next year. The rst is Iran. Netanyahu has, for now, drawn back from his bellicose rhetoric. This followed Obamas refusal to be forced into specifying the point at which the US would be prepared to take military action. Obamas reference in his victory speech to moving beyond this time of war indicates his strong aversion to military confrontation with Iran. The second issue is progress towards a settlement of the conict between Israel and the Palestinians. This is the most likely arena for any possible payback, especially if Obama decides, as so many previous second-term presidents have, that he wants to make this a legacy issue. Harriet Sherwood Jerusalem

Netanyahu and Obama may be forced to recalibrate their relationship

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Delhi organised at a local hotel by the US embassy Photograph: Roberto Schmidt/AFP/ Getty Images

chance to change the world

on making low enriched uranium for power reactors but in exchange has to accept more intrusive monitoring. Israel will not like such a deal, but Binyamin Netanyahu backed the wrong horse in this US election race, and will not have much of a say. It will ultimately be up to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the clerical-military regime around him, to make up their mind. Obamas victory means that the ball will be very much in their court. The most ambitious speech Obama made in his rst term was delivered three months after taking oce in Prague. He described a future for the world free of nuclear arms, and pledged that America, one of the worlds two leading nuclear powers, would play its part in moving in that direction. The signs from the White House suggest Obama still believes the worlds nuclear powers will have to disarm much further if they are to continue to expect the nuclear have-nots to accept the status quo. The administration will soon release guidance on what the US nuclear posture should look like in the coming four years, almost certainly pointing towards more cuts, perhaps to 1,000 strategic weapons. Obama needs to settle the US relationship with Moscow to help sustain his pivot to Asia intended to contain a rising, more assertive China, which is beginning to challenge Americas regional allies over territory. He will continue to bolster those alliances, but he has little control over the driving force in the region, Chinas economic growth and the political uncertainty that comes with it. The rise of China and other new powers such as Brazil and Turkey, serves as a reminder that the US is increasingly operating in a multipolar world. Obama will probably still chafe against the diminishing capacity of an American president to shape events around the globe. One important exception is the Middle East, specically the Israeli-Palestinian conict. The US alliance with Israel gives Obama a powerful lever he can pull to inuence the course of events but he has so far balked at using it. In his second would-be transformational speech on foreign policy, made in Cairo in June 2009 Obama pledged to change the US role in the Middle East, and Arabs took that to mean more American pressure on Israel to accept a peace deal that left Palestinians with a viable state based on 1967 borders. However, in a stando with Netanyahu over Israeli West Bank settlements later that year, Obama blinked, mindful of the imperatives of re-election in a strongly pro-Israel country. The question now is whether the president has the stamina to try again.

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Obama victory

Learn lessons from Romney defeat, Cameron tells partys rightwingers

Conservatives warned of perils of lurching to right Prime minister relieved by presidents re-election
Nicholas Watt Amman
David Cameron is to use Mitt Romneys failure in the US presidential election to warn the Tory right that the Conservative party will consign itself to the margins unless it remains resolutely on Britains common ground. Hours after learning of Barack Obamas re-election during the nal day of his tour to the Gulf and the Middle East, the prime minister said a loud and clear message had emerged from the US election. Cameron also moved to scotch Labour euphoria at the success of its US sister party by saying that Obamas success with the Democrats showed governments can win by adopting a right track, hard road approach on the economy. The prime minister breathed a sigh of relief after learning of Obamas success because the two leaders have built up a strong rapport over the last two years. Obama admired the prime minister for taking decisive action in Libya and he rewarded him with a reception on the South Lawn of the White House in March, which was a state visit in all but name. Cameron would have had a prickly start to relations with a President Romney after delivering a public rebuke to the Republican candidate after he questioned they can nd a good job, they can build a good life for themselves, that if people work hard and try to get on you are behind them and helping them. That is the message loud and clear from this election as it is from all elections. You win elections in the mainstream. The prime minister did not identify any Tories on the right. But Downing Street is taking note of the new Conservative Voice group launched with the enthusiastic support of Tim Montgomerie, the founder of the ConservativeHome website, who was an enthusiastic Romney supporter. While Cameron and Obama hail from vastly contrasting backgrounds, they have provided each other with useful political support. To the fury of Romney, Cameron accepted an invitation from Obama during his US visit last March to travel on Air Force One to watch a basketball game in the vital swing state of Ohio. Cameron qualied his remarks about the lessons for Britain by saying that the US and UK centre right occupy dierent parts of the political terrain. No 10 regularly jokes that the prime minister would be regarded as a socialist by many US Republicans after he declared that the NHS is his main priority. I think the thing about centre right parties is that we are dierent all over the world because centre right parties draw a huge amount from culture and history and the dierent conditions in dierent countries, he said. The Conservatives have always been able to work with American presidents of both parties and have good relations with both parties. So I think there are limited lessons to learn.

A triumph of perspiration and inspiration Labour takes note

Patrick Wintour Political editor
While Conservatives, spray-painted in Democrat blue, were yesterday rushing to hug the Obama victory as proof that centrist incumbents can be re-elected in tough economic times, Labour was queuing to repaint David Cameron as a rightwinger cutting taxes for the rich like the Mitt Romney seen during the Republican primaries. The only similarity between Obama and Osborne was the initial letter of their surnames, Labour said. An ocial declared: Obama had stimulated the economy and seen jobs rise for 32 consecutive months. George Osborne has done the opposite. Obama tried to govern for the 99%, while Osborne is giving tax cuts to the richest 1%. The Conservatives are deregulators and trickle down Reaganites. Iain Duncan Smith gave the game away on Sunday night when he attacked Obamas economic policies. So far, so simple for Labour. Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary and a close observer of American politics, was more subtle: Obama won despite the disenchantment and disappointment of many voters. But in the end he secured victory because more voters trusted he was more on their side than Romney. When Obama explains we are all in this together, people are reassured. When Cameron says it they snigger. It is true that exit polls showed Obama won the empathy vote, if not the argument on the economy. Asked which candidate cared more about them, Obama scored 80%. That will be a warning to Cameron: voters may like welfare caps, but not if he looks heartless. But Alexander also acknowledges Obama has shown incumbents can survive austerity if they govern near the centre. Even in the polarised politics of America, Romney made this race competitive when he reached for the centre, and Obama won when he reached beyond his base and reassured independent voters, he said. Obama won by looking like the whole country, by embracing the rising classes and groups in society such as Latinos and middle-income women. Labour must do the same, framing our appeal not to 4 million voters but to 40 million voters. But there is also disappointment with Obama among Labour people a victory for perspiration and inspiration, as one Obama looked at the whole country. Labour must do the same, framing our appeal not to 4m voters but to 40m Douglas Alexander put it: The fact that they had to rely so much on a ground war one that with our resources we cannot replicate shows how important it is to have a clear message. Labour will nevertheless try to learn the lessons of organisation. The Obama ground war, run from a vast oce in Chicago, and matched in every battleground state, is beyond its means. But Labour will look hard at how social media invigorated the Democrat base, creating 180,000 volunteers, and ensured messages, both attack and rebuttal, could be despatched at the speed needed in a modern election. But Alexander also expresses caution that elections might be won or lost on Twitter. This campaign reminds us that for all the talk of social media, TV debates matter in elections.

Obama and Cameron: strong rapport

Londons preparedness to stage the Olympics. A Romney victory would also have emboldened the Tory right, which Cameron refers to with disdain in private. Cameron, who is expected to meet Obama within months ahead of Britains presidency of the G8 next year, said: In terms of working with Barack Obama I am delighted with the result and congratulate him, he said. He made clear that the Tory right, which is putting pressure on him to campaign on more traditional Conservative themes, should take note of Obamas success. I believe that elections are won in the common ground the centre ground, Cameron said. That is where you need to be, arguing about the things that matter to most people that is making sure

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory Republicans

Soul-searching begins but will party turn left or right?

Consensus on need for strategy overhaul but shift to a new look will not be easy
Ewen MacAskill Washington
The election may yet be remembered less as the day Mitt Romney lost the presidency and more as the day the Republican party died, at least in the shape that has existed for decades. As the post mortem got under way, there was near consensus that it needs a drastic overhaul. Does it move further to the right or to centre? Does it reach out to women, the young and minorities, eating into the Democratic coalition? Some conservatives, especially those from the Tea Party, argue for a shift further to the right, saying John McCain in 2008 and Romney were too moderate, both Rhinos (Republican in name only). In an early take on the soul-searching to come, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said he and gures such as Karl Rove, George W Bushs former strategist, had been wrong in focusing on the economy. The party needed a rethink, to reach out to Latinos and other ethnic groups. Unless we do that, were going to be a minority party, Gingrich said. The party remains overwhelmingly male, old, auent and white. It has survived as an election fighting machine only because of what Republicans call the Southern strategy, which is dependent on the support from white people in southern states that the party has enjoyed since the 1960s civil rights era. Throw in Christian evangelicals and others from the midwest and the mountain states and there was an election-winning combination. But that no longer works. Not only did the Republicans fail to take the White House, they also failed for the second time in two years to take the Senate, which is almost as bitter a disappointment as the failure to beat Barack Obama. The shape of a new-look Republican party may not be decided by Gingrich or Rove or others of that older generation but younger gures such as Marco Rubio, the Florida senator who gave the standout speech at the Republican convention in Tampa. He is already a frontrunner for the 2016 presidential nomination. Rubio issued a statement yesterday saying the Republican party had to expand its reach, to be seen as the party of not just the auent but as the party that helped people become upwardly mobile. Like Gingrich, he called for an outreach to ethnic minorities. The conservative movement should have particular appeal to people in minority and immigrant communities who are trying to make it, and Republicans need to work harder than ever to communicate our beliefs to them, said Rubio. As the son of Cuban immigrants, he is well-placed to make the argument. The party also had to take at least some of the African American vote from the Democrats, he said, and address the alienation of female and gay voters. But the shift to a new-look party will not be easy. Relations between establishment Republicans and the newer Tea Party activists threaten to become messy. Within minutes of the result being announced, Jenny Beth Martin, head of the Tea Party Patriots, blamed the loss not on the changing demographics or social issues but on the candidate. What we got was a weak, moderate candidate, hand-picked by the Beltway elites and country club establishment wing of the Republican party, Martin said. The presidential loss is unequivocally on them. The Tea Party had a bad election again, with its more outlandish candidates failing at the ballot box, but it is not nished yet and will have a say in what the Republican party looks like in the future, pushing for small government, cutting the decit and lowering taxes. A Tea Party activist, Evelyn Zur, from Parker, Colorado, is fully behind the idea of reaching out to Latinos and African Americans, sporting a T-shirt at a recent rally saying Black and conservative are not mutually exclusive. Zur resents the way the Tea Party is demonised as racist. She argues there is a space for conservative views among black people in urban areas who have fared badly under the Democrats. She also sees the move as pragmatic. Blacks and browns are going to be majority, so Republicans have got to get them aboard, she said. One of the younger generation of Republicans who will have a say in the reshaping of the party, Henry Barbour, nephew of the former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour, said some of candidates came across as hostile. He did not name names. Unlike the Tea Party activists, Barbour is mainstream, an influential Republican gure in his native Mississippi and beyond. The party would remain a conservative one, he said, and policies such as opposition to abortion would remain. But could learn from the Democrats the party c about better organisation in identifying bett and getting out voters, he said. Barbour wants the party to listen to gures such a his uncle and former Florida as governor Jeb Bush, but he feels it should J be led by Rubio, Romneys runningb mate Pa Ryan or someone else from Paul that generation. ge The main message of the election was the need to be more inclusive. t What we have to do is take our mesWh sage to people who do not historically support us blacks, Latinos, call Asians, the young people who Asi agree with us but we do not sit agr down with and break bread, Bardow bour said. We either do it or we bou continue to blow them o. continu

Calls for revolution

The losing candidate has an important duty tonight, said Republican strategist Steve Schmidt as polling closed. Thats to concede the election in a graceful manner. Around 1am, Mitt Romney duly obliged but some of his allies did not get the memo. To put it mildly. [Obama] lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country! noted Donald Trump, in a tweet that he slyly deleted once it became clear that, in fact, Obama had actually won the popular vote. The world is laughing at us, Trump added, apparently without irony. Lets [sic] ght like hell and stop this great and disgusting injustice! Not to be outdone, Karl Rove the former Bush strategist, Fox News pundit and Romney donor refused to admit that Obama had won Ohio, causing civil war among Foxs other analysts, who had already declared the state for the Democrats. Id be very cautious about interfering in this process, said Rove, cond veniently forgetting that a ing similar intervention by Fox ion in 2000 had swung the elecng tion the way of his former is boss. Thats awkward, kward, said Foxs Megyn Kelly. Earlier, Republican pundit Bill OReilly blamed the whole thing on race. Obama wins ns because its not a traditional America ica any more. The white hite establishment is the minority. Classy. y. Patrick Kingsley

Analysis Republicans stare into the abyss

Simon Tisdall
emocrats of all stripes and colours rallied behind Barack Obama. Hardline Republicans betrayed Mitt Romney. And so he lost. Despite the disappointments of the past four years, Democrat and independent voters from all backgrounds renewed their faith in a man who promised: The best is yet to come. Despite Romneys emergence as an able candidate of personal integrity, his appeal was fatally undercut by political fundamentalists who said, in eect: We must go backwards to go forwards. Obama aimed unerringly for the centre ground of US life and politics. Republican party leaders and pressure groups showed they dont know where that heartland lies any more. By campaign end, Romney moderating his tone and positions was nally connecting with 2012 America. GOP strategist Peggy Noonan called it Romneys quiet rise, and there was evidence to support it. But the Tea Party zealots, the radical evangelicals, the homophobes, the misogynists and the rest of the unthinking, feckless right had already scuppered his chances. It was too late to turn it around. Obama won on the central issue of the economy which should by rights have sunk his ship with all hands. Exit polls showed just as many voters

trusted Obama as Romney to handle the nations nances, despite his term record of high unemployment and real hardship for many middle- and lowerincome families. By all historical precedent, given the gures, Romney should have sewn it up months ago. But his Reagan-esque ideas were out of date. The voters replied: Its the economy, but were not stupid. Obamas victory was about the past as well as the future. Voters in eect endorsed his healthcare revolution the Aordable Care Act and the DoddFrank nancial reforms that staved o a second depression. They also backed Obamas vow not to renew the Bush tax cuts (expiring at the end of the year), and payroll and other business tax cuts. This was a vote for fairness and plaindealing over self-interest and greed. In his concession speech, Romney showed he had heard the message. He called for renewed bipartisanship, an end to political divisions. But the Republican hard men still dont get it. For two years our majority in the House [of Representatives] has been the primary line of defence for the American people against a government that spends too much, taxes too much and borrows too much when left unchecked, said the house speaker, John Boehner. The fact the GOP still commanded a house majority, he suggested, meant the obstructionism, point-scoring and ideological warfare against the Obama White House would continue. Evidence that the Republicans are out of line and out of touch crowded in from battleground states,

nearly all of which went to Obama. So, too, did the popular vote. Obama did better than expected with white voters, while accumulating huge support (60%) among Latinos. Many were apparently attracted by his decision to allow some young illegal immigrants the right to stay without fear of being deported another Republican trigger issue that backred. bamas support for Wisconsins Tammy Baldwin, the rst avowedly gay woman to run for the Senate, proved to be a plus, not the minus Republican prejudice-peddlers perceived. Baldwin won another sign of how the country is shifting away from the restrictive shibboleths and biases of the past. The zeitgeist was all Obamas. Liberal causes triumphed in several states that held separate votes on single issues. Maryland and Maine became the rst states to legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote. Colorado and Washington legalised some marijuana use. Romney proved a better man than his party deserved. He went up in most peoples estimation during the campaign. He was gracious in defeat. But the truth is, Romney is history. He no longer leads the Republican party, if he ever did. He lost, and though he lost well, he will quickly be pushed aside. The big lesson for Republicans is that extremism does not pay. Unless they quickly regain perspective and balance, the abyss beckons.

ELISE AMENDOLA/AP

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory Democrats

Divided nation What the election means for the parties guardian.co.uk/usa

Madam president? Clinton rules out 2016 for now

Speculation over bid mounts as ratings soar Successful secretary of state leaves allies guessing
Suzanne Goldenberg Madison, Wisconsin
The odds are already being set for a Hillary Clinton campaign for the White House in 2016 even though the secretary of state has said repeatedly that she will not run again. Barack Obamas re-election set o a new conversation yesterday about Democratic prospects for the next presidential election, with Clintons name inevitably top of the list. The vice-president, Joe Biden, is another contender. Biden, who turns 70 this month, was once ruled out as a possible successor because of his age. But he has been joking about his plans for 2016 on the campaign trail, telling reporters on election day that he thought he might get another chance to vote for himself. However, Clinton, who plans to step down from the state department in the new year, remains the top choice of many Democrats. Bookmakers yesterday gave odds ranging from 5-2 to 7-1 against Clinton winning oce in 2016. Her approval ratings are inching towards 70%, her highest in 20 years in political life. Before the attack in Benghazi in which Chris Stevens, the US ambassador to Libya, was killed, there was broad consensus that Clinton had done a good job. I dont think there is anyone out there who doesnt think Hillary Clinton is an extremely successful secretary of state. She is right up there in the upper tier of modern secretaries of state, said David Rothkopf, chief executive of Foreign Policy magazine. Clinton has amassed a global following thanks to her peripatetic existence over the last four years, and she enjoys a huge reservoir of goodwill and, some would say, guilt and regret among those who remember her gritty ght against Obama in the primaries in 2008. Clintons allies, from her staers at the state department to former aides now dispersed around Washington, are quite open that they want her to run. I hope she runs again, said Neera Tanden, a former Clinton staer who is now president of the Centre for American Progress. I think she would be a great president. She does seem a little tired, but she can reboot. Her husband, former president Bill Clinton, has said repeatedly that he thinks she would make a good leader, and has kept the speculation about her future plans burning by saying he has no earthly idea what she will do next. But Clinton has been oering denitive statements that she has no interest in jumping back into politics after four exhausting years as secretary of state. She will be 69 in 2016. I have ruled it out. Its important for me to step o this incredibly high wire Ive been on, to take stock of the rest of my life, she told the Wall Street Journal last month. But, keeping a glimmer of speculation alive, she added: I will always want to be in service to my country. Those around Clinton say she will not venture into a presidential campaign again unless she is convinced she can win and not just the Democratic primaries. Those who have worked with her think she will soon be back in public life. They expect her to devote the next chapter of her life to global womens issues. There is talk in Washington of a new foundation a parallel to her husbands Clinton Global Initiative, which tries to engage corporations in development work. Or she might take a role at a new thinktank in the works for Georgetown University, which will focus on women and security issues. What is known so far is that she wants to take much of next year o. She has mused about writing a memoir.

Successor

13

Kerry among frontrunners for top role

Julian Borger
Hillary Clintons departure from the state department opens up a vacancy for the US cabinets highest ranking post, and the competition has been quiet but intense. The two frontrunners are Senator John Kerry and the ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice. Rice, a foreign policy scholar, was seen as the favourite for much of the year, but was seen to stumble over the attack in September on the US consulate in Benghazi in which the ambassador was among those killed. Susan Rice, tipped for Hillary Clintons old job, got into diculties over the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi She denied the attack had been premeditated, a position later disowned by US intelligence, which has since portrayed it as a terrorist assault. Rice became the target of cover-up allegations from the Romney camp. Clinton and Kerry came to her defence and the White House insisted she had been expressing the best-known facts at the time, but the incident would be troublesome at Senate conrmation hearings if she got the job. As chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee and former presidential candidate, Kerry has good credentials of his own. Nevertheless, the wafer-thin Democratic Senate majority may mean Obama cannot move him. Other options include the national security adviser, Thomas Donilon, and William Burns, a deputy secretary of state.

Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have amassed goodwill through campaigning eorts

Where theres a Bill theres a way

Barack Obamas rst phone call after his election victory was to Bill Clinton, the man who almost single-handedly rescued the Democratic presidential campaign after it ran into trouble. Clinton tirelessly rallied support in swing states, especially from crucial electoral groups such as the white working-class. He made numerous loyal appearances on the campaign trail in support of Obama. He travelled to Virginia on Saturday and Pennsylvania on Monday. Clinton spoke eloquently, telling voters: If you vote your hopes and not your fears you will all reelect Barack Obama president. The phone call appeared to be an acknowledgement from Obama that whatever private dierences they may have he owes his predecessor a big debt, with Clinton able to neutralise the late Romney surge. Luke Harding

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Obama victory The in-tray

Whats the next battle? Its the scal

The president has just weeks to avert a combination of tax rises and budget cuts that could stie fragile growth, writes Larry Elliott
Politics in the US is about to go from knife-edge to cli-edge. The closely fought battle for the White House is over but the battle to prevent the US economy nosediving back into recession is about to begin. Barack Obama has less than two months to broker a deal with the Republicans on Capitol Hill to prevent budget cuts worth $607bn (380bn) of national output kicking in on 1 January. The scal cli was barely mentioned during the presidential race, but the world is now going to hear about little else. Why? Because jumping o the scal cli is seen by Wall Street, the City and the International Monetary Fund as the biggest threat to the global economy over the next year, dwarng even the risk that a Greek exit from the eurozone would start the unravelling of monetary union. America, despite the rapid growth of China in the past two decades, remains the worlds biggest economy, accounting for just under 20% of global output. The Congressional Budget Oce (CBO) in Washington has estimated that the planned tax increases and spending cuts would reduce US gross domestic product by 4% in 2013, dwarng the scale of George Osbornes austerity programme, which has involved budget tightening of 0.5-1% of GDP per year. To emulate in Britain what could be in store for the US, the chancellor would have to halve the NHS budget or put 10 pence on the basic rate of income tax. Removing 4% of US gross domestic product would have profound implications when the wounds from the deep downturn of 2008-09 have yet to heal. The CBO believes it would wipe out forecast growth and result in the American economy contracting by 0.5% in 2013 although many economists say it would be far worse than that. The fear is that demand in the US would collapse, unemployment would head back towards 10% and the tentative recovery in the housing market would be thrown into reverse. Global trade ows would dry up, already shaky banks would nurse bigger losses, there would be a more rapid cooling of the Chinese economy, and the chances of a fragmentation of the eurozone would massively increase. These threats are so obvious and so imminent that economists expect Obama and Republicans on Capitol Hill to come to a settlement between now and the end of December. Although the relationship between the White House and Congress has been at best tetchy and at worse poisonous in the past four years, the expectation is that minds will now be concentrated. Gerard Lyons, the chief economist at Standard Chartered bank, said: Although the economy is improving, it is too fragile to cope with such a shock. The likelihood is a compromise, extending some combination of the tax and spending programmes. Although that would still not be constructive for growth, at least it would not be as bad as the worst case. In addition, it would remove the uncertainty, although, as on previous occasions, we are likely to see some nervousness until the year-end about whether things will be agreed in time. Two thirds of the planned budgetary tightening come from tax increases, something the Republican majority in the House of Representatives will nd hard to accept. The expiry of George Bushs tax cuts alone are expected to raise $221bn, with a further $95bn to come from the end of the payroll tax rebate. Tax rates will increase for those earning more than $70,000 a year, with the top rate of income tax rising to 39.6%. The rest of the plan involves spending cuts totalling more than $1tn over the next nine years. Each government department will have its discretionary spending trimmed by 10%, although mandatory entitlements such as social security and Medicare would not be touched. Democrats argue that it would be foolish to cut spending when the economy remains weak, particularly given the poor state of Americas public infrastructure. Paul Ashworth and Paul Dales, US analysts at Capital Economics, said: The basis for a deal to avert the scal cli remains clear. Democrats are likely to agree to extend the tax cuts for high-income earners in exchange for Republicans agreeing to delay the spending cuts. They added, however, that this

Although the economy is improving, it is too fragile to cope with such a shock
would amount to postponing the scal cli without tackling the underlying problems and thus lead to further credit downgrades from the ratings agencies Moodys, Standard and Poor, and Fitch early next year. The US shrugged o the loss of its prized AAA rating in 2011, but the impact of a second downgrade might be to increase the cost of government borrowing and to push down the value of the dollar. Some scal tightening of policy is inevitable. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have expressed a desire to extend the payroll tax rebate holiday, while the cost of Obamas healthcare plan will add $18bn to the nations tax bill next year. Compared with the eurozone, where falling output in 2012 is expected to be followed by a year of stagnation in 2013, the US is in reasonable shape. The economy is growing and US competitiveness is being boosted by cheap energy from shale gas. Some manufacturing capacity is being brought back to the US and there is the prospect of energy self-suciency within a decade. In the short term, however, the chances are that growth will remain sluggish and unemployment slow to come down. Decit reduction, even if modest, will result in the Federal Reserve keeping monetary policy ultra loose. Interest rates will remain at rock-bottom levels deep into Obamas second term and the US central bank will consider further doses of quantitative easing to boost the money supply. This, though, assumes the scal cli can be avoided. Obama won his second term despite what had happened to growth, jobs and living standards in the past four years. A majority of Americans were unhappy about the state of the economy but still gave the president a second chance. In the end it wasnt the economy, stupid. But its about to be.

Presidential challenges
Climate change
Obama came to the White House in 2009 with a green dream team including Nobel laureate Steve Chu as energy secretary. But he will have to make new appointments in his second term and also decide whether to ll the post of White House director of energy and climate change policy, which has been empty since Carol Browner stepped down early in 2011. Now that Obama has a second term, the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to move more aggressively on tightening rules on mercury and carbon dioxide emissions. But the environmental community will be looking for Obama to deliver the big changes that will move America towards a low-carbon future and protect the country from the extreme weather, rising seas and other consequences of future climate change. At its most ambitious, that would involve some kind of carbon tax, an option now being discussed at a number of Washington thinktanks, including the conservative American Enterprise Institute. Suzanne Goldenberg

Guantnamo Bay

Victory speech boosts environmental lobby

Barack Obamas invocation of the destructive power of a warming planet in his victory speech stoked expectation that he would act on climate change in his second term and environmental campaigners are already mobilising to hold the president to that promise. But a strategic decision by the White House in 2009 to downplay climate change, and Obamas avoidance of the issue during the election campaign, makes it tricky for the president to claim now that he was elected to act on the issue. The Republicans continued control of the House of Representatives will also continue to limit Obamas scope for action. However, environmental campaigners said Hurricane Sandy and the endorsement from New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg for Obamas position on climate change create public space for the president to act. The rst big decision involves the Keystone XL pipeline, a project designed to expand production of the Alberta tar sands by pumping crude oil to Texas reneries. The conventional wisdom is that Obama will approve the pipeline when the decision is made early next year. Environmental groups will also be watching to see whether Obama continues to ght to keep tax credits for the wind industry during the lame duck session of Congress. Their expiry at the end of the year has hurt the industry, leading to layos. Meanwhile, Obama has said he will continue to ght $46bn (29bn) in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry.

Best hope is reduction in prisoner numbers

Among the many issues that got little attention in the campaign was one that has done enormous damage to the USs reputation over the past decade: the prison and trials at Guantnamo Bay. Barack Obama promised to close the detention facility within a year of coming to oce after he was elected in 2008, and he tried. Alternative prisons were scouted in the US. Civilian trials were prepared in New York for the alleged overseers of the 9/11 attacks. But Congress waded in, backed by shrill rightwing talk radio and Fox News, to accuse the president of endangering America. Even some Democrats, afraid of being accused of being weak on security, backed a law that forbade the president from moving the Guantnamo prisoners to US soil. That situation is unlikely to change with the Republicans in charge of the House of Representatives. So the best Obama can do is to continue to reduce the number of prisoners at Guantnamo which has fallen from 240 to 166 while putting the big names on trial before military commissions under legal rules closer to civilian trials than originally planned by the Bush administration. The prisoners appear not to have much condence their situation will change. Four years ago, they greeted the election result by chanting Obama, Obama, Obama at the guards. The US military said Tuesday nights result was met with silence at the Guantnamo prison. Chris McGreal

Cli hanger
Fiscal cli describes the point in January when several tax breaks end and public sector cuts hit the US economy. Among changes are cancellation of a 2% payroll tax cut introduced last year the equivalent in Britain of raising employee national insurance from 4.2% to 6.2%. Tax breaks for businesses that George W Bush passed in 2003 will lapse. The Republicans seem most concerned about highest earners those making more than $388,350 (243,000), who will see an increase in income tax from 35% to 39.6%. About $108bn of cuts to departmental spending from defence to Medicare will kick in. So far, cuts have been carried by local government and states. Now it will be the turn of federal government. Phillip Inman

Barack Obamas speech warned of the destructive power of a warming planet

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

15

cli, stupid

After the storm Two neighbours embrace among the remains of houses that burned down in Breezy Point, in the New York borough of Queens, after Hurricane Sandy struck last week Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

Immigration

Promises of reform may not be empty this time

Four years ago, Barack Obama promised to make immigration reform a top priority of his rst term as president. That ambition was pushed aside by health care reform and, after 2010, opposition from the newly Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Obama is making promises again. He told Univision, the Spanish language TV channel, earlier this year that he would put immigration reform back on the agenda. After a failure to tackle the issue in four years, Americas 11 million undocumented immigrants might be sceptical when they hear such promises. But there are reasons for hope that some progress is possible this time round. Latinos comprise 80% of the undocumented immigrant population, and their plight resonates profoundly with the growing number of Hispanics who are full US citizens and have increasing electoral power. Both main parties are aware of the need to woo the burgeoning Latino vote, and the defeat of Mitt Romney, who took a harsh line on immigration in the primary race and paid the price with Latino voters, could hasten the soulsearching within the Republican party. In turn, that could result in a Congress that would be more open to discussing reform with Obama over the next year. The most likely option for debate would be a Dream Act legislation to provide young undocumented Hispanics who are in education with a path towards citizenship. The Republicans have consistently opposed the idea, but yesterdays result could make them think again. Ed Pilkington Ohio

Today on guardian.co.uk
Live blog Follow all the fallout from the election with Richard Adams unrivalled live blog, featuring reports from Guardian journalists across the US All the results Interactive graphics detailing the full results of the presidential, senate, house and governor elections. At-aglance views of how each state has voted, with a 3D rendering of each state and the vote for each candidate broken down county by county. View the crucial senate and house results either by party or geographically by region America: Elect! Watch the action-packed journey to US election day told in animated graphic novel form

guardian.co.uk/world/ us-elections-2012

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

National

German leader prepares to ght Cameron over budget PM says no early end in sight for budget deadlock
Juliette Jowit Mark Rice-Oxley Ian Traynor Brussels
German chancellor Angela Merkel warned Britain not to turn its back on Europe just before heading to London last night for a crunch meeting with the prime minister David Cameron. Merkel is visiting the UK in the hope of resolving a growing dispute about the EU budget, with Downing Street raising the implicit threat that it could veto any increase in spending. In a speech to the European parliament in Brussels before leaving for London, the German leader issued a veiled warning that Britain would struggle alone. I want to have a strong UK in the EU, said Merkel in a question and answer session after her address to MEPs. The UK was with us when we were liberated from national socialism. We still have British soldiers in Germany. I cant imagine that the UK [would] not be part of Europe. I think it is good also for the UK to be part of Europe. If you have a world of seven billion, and if you are alone in that world, I dont think that is good for the UK. So I will do everything to keep the UK in the EU as a good partner, and that is why Im going to London and I will ask the inhabitants of the wonderful island to reect that they will not be happy if they are alone in this world. With a strong Europe with 500 million we are in favour of freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom of reli-

Angela Merkel said in Brussels: I will do everything to keep the UK in the EU

gion and democracy. Look around the world at where this isnt the case and be happy that we are together. Merkel and Cameron were due to discuss the thorny issue of the EU budget for 2014-20 over dinner at No 10, part of a series of bilateral talks before a meeting of all 27 EU member state leaders on 22 November. Britain is demanding a real-terms freeze in the budget, which would be set at 2011 levels increased only for ination. MPs voted last week to go further and demand a real-terms cut in spending. The European commission has suggested a 5% increase in spending, and Germany, supported by Ireland, is in favour of spending 1% of GDP, suggesting the budget would rise further as European economies grow. If there is no agreement, the default position is that the 2013 budget will be rolled over to future years, with an increase for ination added a move that Westminster would not have any power to reject.

Cameron said yesterday that he never had particularly high hopes of an agreement this month. You have 27 people around the table with 27 dierent opinions but I am very clear I am not going to agree to a future nancial framework that isnt in Britains interests, he said. The prime minister said the commissions proposed budget increase amounted to 100bn (80bn) and was completely ludicrous, accusing Brussels of doing nothing to tighten its own belt. I want to make a very strong argument to the commission: how can they argue that countries should be cutting spending and taking tough decisions if they are not prepared to take tough decisions themselves? he said before returning from his trip to the Gulf and before Merkel spoke in Brussels. The Centre for European Reform (CER) has calculated that the UK contribution would be 7.4bn a year if the budget were frozen, while the German or commission plans would result in an additional 400m-550m a year at most. If Cameron brought down the negotiations over such a small sum, the UK would nd itself pressed further into the margins of Europe, said John Springfield, the CERs research fellow. It would do better to compromise on the overall size of the budget and negotiate for it to be spent more wisely. Although Germany wants Britain to stay in the EU, as one of the biggest net contributors of funds and as part of a counterbalance to the powerful FrancoMediterranean alliance, Merkel is said to have indicated privately that she would not ght hard against any planned exit. Merkel used her speech in Brussels to call for the surrender of national powers over tax-and-spend policies to Brussels by the 17 countries in the eurozone within three years, in order to rescue and shore up the embattled single currency.

PHOTOGRAPH: BBC

You will struggle alone if you turn against EU, Merkel warns Britain

Clive Dunn 1920-2012

Robert Booth
Clive Dunn, best known for his role as Lance Corporal Jones in Dads Army died yesterday at his home in Portugal after a short illness. He was 92. Dunn, who starred alongside his friend John Le Mesurier in the hit sitcom about a group of bumbling Home Guard soldiers, is believed to have been ill for a couple of weeks at his Algarve home on the outskirts of Boliqueime. His agent Peter Charlesworth said the star would be sorely missed. Dunns

capacity for playing elderly people on screen saw him accept the role of Jones aged just 48, and he coined the catchphrases Dont panic and Permission to speak. He had a number one hit in 1971 with the novelty song Grandad, appearing on Top of the Pops aged 51 in a rocking chair and wearing a at cap and waistcoat. Even at the age of 19 he played a doddering old man in J M Barries whimsical play Mary Rose for a repertory company in Abergavenny. Dunn had lived with his wife of 53 years, the actor Priscilla Morgan, in Portugal for the past 30 years. There, he had

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

17

Welby set to be next Archbishop of Canterbury

Lizzy Davies
Justin Welby, the bishop of Durham, is expected to be unveiled as the next archbishop of Canterbury within days as Lambeth Palace prepares to break weeks of silence on the identity of Rowan Williamss successor. After a selection process shrouded in secrecy and mired in internal wrangling, the 56-year-old evangelical Old Etonian looks set to take over the leadership of the Church of England from Williams, who will step down at the end of the year. Last night neither Lambeth Palace nor the church showed any sign of wanting to lift the effective news blackout that has characterised the work of the Crown Nominations Commission (CNC) since the end of October, and a spokesperson refused to comment on reports that Welby had ocially accepted the job. But his name is believed to have been passed to Downing Street after it emerged as the preferred option of the 16-member CNC. The prime ministers ocial spokesman said yesterday that Downing Street was expecting an announcement soon. Other more experienced candidates for the position included John Sentamu, the archbishop of York, Graham James, the bishop of Norwich, and James Jones, the bishop of Liverpool. But Welbys supporters say that, despite his relatively short clerical career he was enthroned as a bishop less than a year ago he remains the best man for the job. A Cambridge graduate who spent his twenties working in the oil industry, rst for the French oil company Elf Aquitaine and then for the oil exploration group Enterprise Oil plc, Welby only took his rst steps in the clergy in the 1990s. He then embarked on a swift rise through the ranks of the church, becoming dean of Liverpool in December 2007 and bishop of Durham in November last year. His experience in business and ethics made him a natural choice to join the parliamentary commission on banking standards earlier this year.

an artists studio and pursued his love of painting until he lost much of his sight. Dunn, who leaves his wife, daughters Jessica and Polly and grandchildren, was born in London into a showbusiness family and started out with a number of small lm roles in the 1930s before the war intervened. He served in the 4th Queens Own Hussars during the second world war, spending four years in prisoner-of-war and labour camps in Austria. A socialist, he had occasional o-air clashes with Arthur Lowe, who played the pompous Captain Mainwaring in Dads Army. Lowe was an active Conservative and when Dunn was awarded an OBE, Lowe said he would accept only a higher honour from the Queen. Obituary, page 38

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

19

National

Henry Moore decision raises fears for public art

Tower Hamlets presses ahead with sculpture sale Experts call for an urgent audit of forgotten works
Amelia Hill
Experts are warning of a wave of public art sales by local authorities after Tower Hamlets last night agreed to sell a Henry Moore statue, donated by the artist on the understanding it would be left permanently on open-air display for the enjoyment of people in a socially deprived area of London. Lutfur Rahman, the independent mayor of the borough, overruled the recommendation of his councillors that Draped Seated Woman which could fetch up to 20m should not be sold. Rushanara Ali, the Labour MP for Bethnal Green and Bow, said Rahman was going against the desires of the over 1,500 people who have signed the petition [against the sale] in just a few days. The decision was also condemned by Danny Boyle, a Tower Hamlets resident and director of the opening ceremony for the 2012 Olympics. The value of art is diminished by being monetarised, he said last night. The Moore sculpture dees all prejudice in peoples minds about one of Londons poorest boroughs. That alone makes it priceless to every resident. Rahman, however, said the money raised would ease the 100m budget cut that Tower Hamlets home to some of the worst deprivation in Britain will face over the next three years. The Moore is the latest in a growing list of sales of public artworks by councils. Last year, Bolton Council sold seven works of art, including two etchings by Picasso and a painting by John Everett Millais, and Gloucester city council approved plans to sell 14 works of art valued at 381,000. In

Ash dieback disease found in six new counties

John Vidal and Adam Vaughan
The number of English counties suering outbreaks of ash dieback disease in the wild has more than doubled, the government said yesterday. As tree growers and plant health experts from 80 organisations met at a summit convened by the environment secretary, Owen Paterson, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Aairs (Defra) said ash dieback had now been conrmed in the wild in six new counties: Berkshire, Bedfordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland, Sussex and Yorkshire. A total of 115 sites in 11 counties, including some in Wales and Scotland, are now conrmed. Government scientists said the main cluster of infections in south-east England and East Anglia suggested the disease, Chalara fraxinea, had probably spread on the wind from France and Belgium. A detailed government action plan to respond to the disease will be published following a Cobra national emergency meeting tomorrow. But the government was warned yesterday by nurseries and woodland groups not to over-react. The government was at pains to underline the seriousness of the disease. We will inevitably see a long term decline of the native ash. We must change the structure of our forests and introduce new species, said Defra chief plant health ocer Martin Ward. Defra chief scientist Ian Boyd said: I would not say the ash tree in Britain is nished. There is innate resistance in some trees and many trees take a long time to die. But I do not think we can stop the spread of the disease. Ward added: If we had carried out the kind of research we would like to have done when the disease turned up in Europe its possible we couldve come up with a solution. But thats easy to say in hindsight.

Left: Henry Moores Draped Seated Woman and, right, The Somnambulist by Millais, sold by Bolton council for 74,000

the same year, Newcastle City Council put 270,000 of publicly-funded artwork for sale on eBay and Leicestershire County Council made more than 160,000 after selling o some of its art collection. Ian Leith, founder and deputy chairman of the Public Monuments and Sculpture Association said other councils might now be tempted to sell o their public artwork. We fear that this is the beginning of local authorities wanting to realise the assets they have in their public sculptures, he said. But the danger is that we wont nd out about these sales: There is no national audit of public art in England and no atrisk list.

Many public sculptures are not listed at all. Indoor art, art in private gardens and war memorials are audited but no one is responsible for outdoor art. According to English Heritage, less than 15% of the estimated 10,000 pieces of sculpture in public spaces, are included on their register of listed buildings. Leith said: We are calling for local authorities to make audits of their public art and put them online. Ratepayers should ask councils what art they have and where the public record is. Every council has this information; its just buried deep in their planning departments. They need to excavate it and get it online.

An audit of public art was welcomed by English Heritage and by the Twentieth Century Society, which yesterday petitioned Camden council to prevent the sale on 14 November of a giant bronze statue by Sir Eduardo Paolozzi that has been on display for 25 years. The sculpture is privately owned but was designed to stand on the pavement in front of a private oce at 34-36 High Holborn. The Twentieth Century Society is urging Camden council to take immediate action to ensure this important work of modern sculpture remains visible to the public, said Catherine Croft, director of the society.

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Health investigation

Surgeon suspended over

Ian Paterson may have misdiagnosed 450 women Healthy patients were told they had breast cancer
Helen Pidd and Katie Gibbons
An alleged rogue surgeon has been suspended by the General Medical Council after it emerged he might have performed unnecessary or inappropriate breast operations on more than 1,000 women in Britain. Ian Stuart Paterson, a breast cancer specialist who worked at NHS and private hospitals in the Midlands from 1994 until last month, is suspected of misdiagnosing at least 450 of the women with breast cancer when they were in fact healthy, and then performing unnecessary lumpectomy surgery. He also performed unconventional cleavage-sparing mastectomies on 700 other women, despite the procedure not being sanctioned in the UK. The technique involved leaving breast tissue around the cleavage area for cosmetic reasons, but went against national guidelines, which state that no excess tissue should be left behind as this could lead to a return of the cancer. According to Thompsons solicitors, representing almost 100 of the aected patients on a no win, no fee basis as they launch compensation claims: Many of the women operated on by Mr Paterson using this controversial technique have had to undergo further surgery to remove the excess tissue and unfortunately some have had their cancer return. One of Patersons patients, 57-year-old Gail Boichat from Staordshire, says she recently discovered that Paterson had misdiagnosed her with breast cancer back in 1995 when he was working at the Good Hope NHS hospital in Sutton Coldeld, West Midlands. He performed a cleavagesparing mastectomy on her right breast and then prescribed the strong anti-cancer drug tamoxifen , which she claims caused an early menopause. She was recalled to hospital in February after the GMC launched an investigation into Paterson, and says that a doctor looked at her medical notes and told her that there was no evidence she ever had

I was told I was a very lucky lady now Im crying because Im angry
Katie Gibbons

ane Seymour feared the worst as she opened the hospital letter. She had gone through two breast operations in recent years and feared that it would tell her that cancer cells were back, and the remaining two thirds of her right breast would need to be removed. But this isnt what the letter said. It told her that the hospital was going through all the records of all the patients of her surgeon, Ian Paterson, a respected consultant who operated at ve hospitals in the West Midlands, after nding some irregularities. The hospital invited her to speak to one of its other consultants to discuss her surgery. At that meeting last month, the 56-year-old was told that she had had only benign, non-cancerous tissue, despite the operations and years of physical and emotional trauma. Janes experience is not unique: she is among 450 women who have been recalled following irregularities with their medical notes from benign breast surgeries performed by Paterson at the Spire Little Aston and Spire Parkway clinics between 2004 and 2011. Jane had found a pea-sized lump in her right breast in 2006 and was referred by her local GP to Paterson. He was a very charming man, Jane told the Guardian. So genuine, and full of concern; I put my faith in him, and trusted his advice. But the doctors disclosures at the recall appointment changed everything. For six years Ive been living under the fear that I would get cancer Ive had two operations theres a massive dent in the side of my breast but there was nothing ever wrong with me. Looking at Janes scans, and the results of a needle-aspiration, she says, Paterson diagnosed her lump as precancerous without performing a core biopsy. I was told in no uncertain terms

that if I didnt have the operation, then I would get breast cancer, says Jane, a mother of three. Last week, the GMC put an interim suspension on Patersons licence, but said it could not disclose details of the order because the investigation is continuing. Kashmir Uppal, a solicitor from Thompsons representing 100 of Patersons concerned patients, said she was in close contact with the GMC investigating ocer. It [the suspension] is not a nding based on fact, she says. The interim order panel have decided that it is necessary for the protection of members of the public, it is in the public interest and in Mr Patersons own interest to suspend him until further notice. A number of the women the Guardian spoke to gave details of their recall appointments. They said they were told that their medical notes and test results gave no indication of pre-cancerous cells in the breast tissue, and that surgery had been unnecessary. Some patients said they were also told of coding issues with their les. When pressed, the consultant at the recalls explained that Paterson had wrongly coded for surgeries that were not needed, and in some instances, procedures he did not perform, some of the women said. The GMC has referred the case to

Ian Paterson has been suspended by the General Medical Council

West Midlands police, which said it was working closely with the GMC to assess the allegations and determine whether a criminal investigation is necessary. In a statement late Tuesday, Paterson, who is being represented by the Medical Defence Union, said: I am co-operating fully with the GMC investigation and cannot comment on any of the issues raised because of my duty of patient condentiality and the ongoing investigation. In a statement, Paula Naylor, hospital director of Spire Parkway hospital, said, referring to the coding errors: We have referred this matter to the General Medical Council so they can investigate Mr Patersons tness to practice, but cannot speculate on the outcome. Clearly we are looking at what we can learn from these events, but our priority right now is to hold consultations with those patients aected and to provide them with accurate information as quickly as possible. The concerns that led to the recall letters surfaced amid an investigation by the GMC into Patersons controversial cleavage-sparing mastectomy, performed in ve hospitals across the West Midlands. In 2007, Heart of England NHS Trust conducted a review of the technique, which leaves a small amount of breast tissue around the cleavage for cosmetic reasons. At the time, Dr Aresh Anwar, medical director of the trust, said: An external review highlighted that this was not a usual procedure and that Mr Paterson had not followed guidelines to introduce a new technique. It required closer scrutiny to establish whether it represented best practice. In December 2007, Paterson was banned from using the technique, and the trust began a process of identifying patients who may have undergone this procedure. About 700 of these NHS patients were urgently recalled last summer. On her daughters 18th birthday, Jane underwent her second operation with

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

SocietyGuardian The latest health news, comment and analysis guardian.co.uk/society

1,000 unnecessary breast operations

breast cancer. I felt shock, horror, numbness. The words want to come out but you cant say anything. You cant speak, she said yesterday. For a while I didnt even tell anybody about this. It messes with your emotions. Heart of England NHS hospital trust has since apologised to Boichat for her ordeal. But like many other women, she is launching a compensation claim and wants Paterson to face criminal charges. Then I may get some closure. He punished me in some way and I think he should be punished, she said. Paula Gelsthorpe, a 54-year-old dog groomer, only heard 10 days ago that the two lumpectomies Paterson performed on her in 2002 and 2009 were unnecessary. She said she felt shocked and betrayed at the news. Ive been under this cloud since 2002 and then to be told these operations were unnecessary, my rst thought was, thank goodness, I havent got cancer. But then the anger and the betrayal caught up as well. Paterson was suspended by the GMC at the end of last month. He is expected to face a full tness-to-practise hearing next summer. He could also face criminal investigation following allegations he made claims to medical insurers for unnecessary surgeries or surgeries he did not perform. Two of Patersons private breast cancer patients have told the Guardian they have discovered that Paterson miscoded their procedures submitting claims to insurance companies for more expensive procedures than those actually performed. The GMC has referred the case to West Midlands police, wh o said they were working closely with the GMC to assess the allegations and determine whether a criminal investigation is necessary. A GMC spokesperson said: Dr Ian Patersons registration is currently suspended, following an Interim Orders Panel meeting on 29 October 2012. This means the doctor cannot work as we investigate concerns about his tness to practise. Paterson was already banned from performing the cleavage-sparing operations at the Heart of England trust after an investigation in December 2007. Afterwards, the Heart of England trust began a process of identifying patients who may have undergone this procedure. Some 700 of these NHS patients were urgently recalled last summer, for a review of their treatment and care. In a statement late on Tuesday, Paterson, who is being represented by the Medical Defence Union, said: I am co-operating fully with the GMC investigation and cannot comment on any of the issues raised because of my duty of patient condentiality and the ongoing investigation. The hospitals where Paterson is known to have practised are: Heartlands hospital, Solihull hospital, Good Hope hospital (all NHS); and Spire Hospital Parkway and

21

700

The number of women who had an unconventional type of mastectomy that was not sanctioned for use in the UK

Spire Hospital Little Aston, both private. In a statement, Paula Naylor, hospital director at Spire Parkway hospital, said: We have referred this matter to the General Medical Council so they can investigate Mr Patersons tness to practise, but cannot speculate on the outcome. Kashmir Uppal, national head of clinical negligence for Thompsons solicitors, said she had never heard of such a wideranging clinical negligence case in 16 years of specialising in the eld. Its the largest case that Ive dealt with, with the number of women involved and the reasons he was doing this, which we just cant establish. Clearly mistakes do happen in any clinical setting unfortunately a midwife can misread a CTT trace, somebody will misread an X-ray, a GP wont recognise signs of colorectal cancer This is dierent.

I was so scared as Pagets disease is so aggressive. I thought that was it I was going to die
Marie Bailey, left
Paterson, as the original scar tissue had become diseased. It wasnt nice to look at and it wasnt very pleasant to feel, she says. I couldnt bear my husband touching me, I wouldnt even let him look. So he went elsewhere. Now were getting divorced; I have to laugh about it, Ive had my tears and tantrums. Last month, Jane says she was told by Steven Thrush, a specialist breast consultant at Spire, that the abnormal cells originally detected by Paterson were consistent with a benign lump, which would have dissipated if left alone. At 32, Marie Bailey was one of Patersons youngest patients at the Spire hospitals. She sees herself now as one of the lucky ones for having avoided a lumpectomy. In 2007, Marie was seen by Paterson for suspected Pagets disease, a rare form of breast cancer. She was put under general anaesthetic for a core biopsy and woke to Paterson telling her the results were abnormal. I was so scared as Pagets disease is very aggressive, she says. I thought that was it. I thought I was going to die. After an agonising week spent waiting for more information with her husband and young son, Marie was told by Paterson that everything was ne. The swelling turned out to be eczema. In her recall appointment, Marie says the consultant, Steven Thrush, explained that her mammogram had been normal and therefore a general anaesthetic and core biopsy were inappropriate, although it was important that a correct diagnosis was eventually reached. Mr Paterson put me through something I didnt need, she says. A total of 327 of the women have now had their recall appointment, but more than 100 are still waiting. Gemma has been looking at the Spire letter on her kitchen table for four weeks; every day she wills the postman to bring her another, with details of her recall appointment. I know what they will say, I found out by seeing another doctor, she says. My lump wasnt cancerous at all and a simple biopsy would have saved me the deformity that Ive been left with. Her slim frame is dwarfed by the baggy tops she has worn every day since her lumpectomy in 2010. If I had cancer and hed saved me, then I would have to tolerate the way I look, because thats part of the illness, she says. But I didnt have the illness, so why have I been left with the wounds? Gemma found a lump in her left breast at Christmas in 2009. A single mother with a long family history of fatal cancer, she immediately went to see her GP. Unable to face the sixweek NHS wait, she went to the Spire Parkway and was recommended Mr Paterson. My son was coming up to his 18th birthday, and I just thought that I wouldnt even live long enough to be there, she says. A week after the operation Paterson, she says, told her that she was a very, very lucky young lady, and that the cancer had gone. I remember walking out of there, and telling my friend that I was going to be ne, she says. We were both stamping in the car park, hugging and crying. But now Im crying because Im angry. In her statement, Paula Naylor at Spire said: Our priority is always patient care and we do not believe there is any immediate health risk. However, any patient treated by Ian Paterson who has immediate concerns or questions should call a dedicated phone line, 0800 044 3134, and arrange to speak with our professional medical sta. Breast surgery is extremely traumatic, and for many women the emotional damage is more complex than the scars it leaves behind. It is a mental cruelty, apart from the physical; my life has never been the same and it never will be the same, says Gemma. The shock of nding out that I didnt need the surgery is on a par with thinking that I had cancer in the rst place. I am devastated. Gemmas name has been changed.

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

23

National Simon Hoggarts sketch Quiet at the back!

avid Cameron was in the Middle East, but no doubt he picked up the news about a government leader who had disappointed many of his followers and who had presided over a serious recession coupled with whopping unemployment, but had nonetheless won a second term, partly because no one took his opponent seriously. In his absence, Nick Clegg was stuck with prime ministers questions. The Speaker took the opportunity to declare war on the Commons. Mr Bercow has become increasingly peeved of late, and yesterday he really let rip. I was in mind of a supply teacher who cant keep order and threatens to bring in the headmaster. Then he wakes up and thinks, ohmigosh, I am the headmaster! Even before Mr Clegg had answered his rst question, Mr Bercow laid into MPs in general. They are rabbiting away from a sedentary position when their views are of no interest or concern whatsoever! Since when has that been a bar to politicians talking? Of course, it would be ne if they were rabbiting away about their views of no interest or concern whatsoever, if they were standing up. No one was safe from the Speakers ire. To someone whose face I didnt catch: I know the junior minister in the back row thinks her views are relevant! But Im not interested!. Then to a Tory: Mr McCartney, your heckling is not wanted, it doesnt help, stop it now and in the future! But the row kept on increasing. Harriet Harman, standing in for Ed Miliband, said that the Lib Dems were

Politics

PM will be relieved Im in jungle, says Dorries

Nadine Dorries, the MP suspended by the Tories after ying out to Australia to take part in Im a Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here, claimed David Cameron will be relieved she is out in the jungle. The MP for Mid Bedfordshire, who is paid an annual Commons salary of 65,738, rightly predicted there would be a backlash, in comments released in an ITV press release yesterday conrming the shows lineup. She has been in lockdown for the past couple of days, according to ITV, and is unlikely to be aware of the furore her decision has caused. She claimed the prime minister would be glad to see the back of her. I am a thorn in his side, she said. Dorries did not tell fellow politicians or the Tory chief whip, Sir George Young, about her plan to take part in the programme, which starts on Sunday and could keep her out of circulation for up to a month. Last night Cameron backed Youngs decision to remove the party whip from her. I think the chief whip has made the right decision, hes responsible for these things, he said. But the former Tory minister Ann Widdecombe said Youngs decision could backre if the MP proved popular with viewers. Hlne Mulholland and Nicholas Watt Louise Mensch, page 34 Leader comment, page 36

famous for breaking their promises on police numbers, as well as tuition fees. Why should anyone trust them again? Clegg snapped back, at least they can trust this side on the economy! A vast roar went up, I suspect rather like the terrible sucking, screaming and grinding noise when the Titanic nally sank. The Speaker, who may have had a noise-triggered cattle prod inside his Y-fronts, reacted with more shock and horror. The deputy prime minister is in danger of being heckled rather noisily and stupidly by both sides. This juvenile delinquency should stop now! Did it work? Not really. Trying to quieten the Commons is like trying to stop a mugger by hitting them with a sponge cake. A referee in a local derby match might as well appeal for silence from the crowd since the players need to concentrate on their football.

user was sentenced to three months in prison for an almost identical oence last month. Busby, 18, was arrested after posting oensive remarks on the site on the day a man was charged with Aprils murder, ve days after her disappearance in Machynlleth, Powys. Prosecutor Kerry Lovegrove told the court Busbys initial post on Facebook was a joke about the missing girl obtained from another website. Other Facebook users urged Busby to stop writing inappropriate comments, and when he went on to make sickening claims about April, a woman contacted West Mercia police. Busby, of Worcester, admitted posting the comments and told ocers he thought they could only be seen by his friends on Facebook. Lovegrove said: He told the police that he was an immature teenager and it was an attempt to get some attention. Magistrates said they had taken into account Busbys early guilty plea and remorse. PA

by the reclusive Cocteau Twins singer Elizabeth Fraser. Ono has performed twice before at Meltdown, which celebrates its 20th anniversary next year. She appeared as part of Patti Smiths Meltdown in 2005 and again in 2009 under Ornette Coleman. Ono said: I am deeply honoured to curate Meltdown. In doing so I am aware of the great tradition of experimentalism mixed with classicism that has made the festival such an enduring part of the British arts landscape. The Tokyo-born entertainer moved to New York after the second world war. She has been married three times: to composer Toshi Ichiyanagi, to jazz musician Anthony Cox and to John Lennon. . Meltdown will take place from 14 to 23 June, and the full lineup will be announced next year. The Observer is the festivals media partner. Caspar Llewellyn Smith

Crime

Five held on suspicion of hunting pet cats

Five people have been arrested and eight dogs impounded in an operation targeting a gang suspected of hunting domestic cats and wild animals. Fifty police ocers and 19 RSPCA inspectors were involved in early morning raids on houses in the Firthmoor area of Darlington, County Durham, acting on warrants issued on suspicion of animal cruelty. Four men aged 18 and a 19-year-old are being questioned while forensic ocers examine items seized in the raids, including computers, mobile phones and materials linked to hunting. The dogs impounded are six lurchers and two labradors. There have been a series of reports from local people of cats and other animals being chased by dogs in an apparently systematic manner. The RSPCAs chief inspector, Mark Gent, said: I hope this sends a message to anyone involved in this kind of deliberate, abhorrent cruelty. Martin Wainwright

here were of course lots of (not brilliant) Nadine Dorries jokes. Harriet Harman said she was surrounded by rats and snakes even before she went into the jungle! Clegg thought that forcing her to eat insects was part of a new disciplinary regime by the Tory whips. By this time speaking against a wall of noise had had its eect on his voice, so he sounded as if a column of soldier ants armed with sandpaper had been working on his throat all morning. Simon Hoggart will be talking about sketchwriting and his new book, House Of Fun, at a Guardian event in London on the evening of 21 November. Tickets, 9.50 online, from www.kingsplace.co.uk

Arts

Courts

Yoko Ono to curate Meltdown arts festival

Yoko Ono has been named the next curator of the Meltdown festival at the Southbank centre in London. The musician, artist, author and activist, who celebrates her 80th birthday in February, will organise the 10-day event in June next year. Previous curators include David Bowie, Jarvis Cocker and Massive Attack. Antony Hegarty of Antony and the Johnsons took charge this year, with a lineup that included an appearance

Facebook user avoids jail for April Jones jibes

A sales adviser who made sexual comments about ve-year-old April Jones on Facebook has been given a six-week suspended jail term. Magistrates in Worcester chose not to jail Sam Busby despite being told another Facebook

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Eyewitness Obama victory

Chicago The rst lady, Michelle Obama, embraces Jill Biden, the wife of vice-president Joe Biden, at the victory celebrations in McCormick Place. Both women have been widely praised for their parts in the successful campaign to crowd in the packed hall were delighted to see their candidate accept the victory and promise to work harder to make a positive change to the United States. As the ticker tape began to fall, and the music played, the party then got
DAVID BECKER/GETTY IMAGES DAMIAN DOVARGANES/AP

Las Vegas For some Romney supporters, the defeat was too hard to take. Alicia Hayes, left, and her mother Karen console each other as it became clear that Barack Obama was going to serve a second term

Los Angeles Obama supporters in the Crenshaw district take to the streets to dance and celebrate at the announcement that their man has won four more years

Boston The mood at t candidate had fallen

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Gallery The best images from the election and the victory parties guardian.co.uk/inpictures

25

mpaign to get the president re-elected. The y then got into full swing
JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES ENNY NURAHENI/REUTERS

CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES

DAI KUROKAWA/EPA

e mood at the convention centre fell at for Romney supporters as the results trickled in, to show that their had fallen quite a long way short of the number of votes needed to be the next president

Jakarta, Indonesia Pupils of State Elementary School Menteng 01, where Barack Obama studied from 1970-71, cheer in support of the president as they watch the worldwide coverage of the American election from their school

EMMANUEL DUNAND/GETTY IMAGES

Boston The news in Massachusetts was not good. Romney had lost his home state and, to make things worse, his running mate Paul Ryan lost his own of Wisconsin

Kenya Barack Obamas step-grandmother, Sarah Onyango Obama was all smiles in the village of Nyangoma Kogelo, where the presidents father was raised

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

27

International

International editor: Charlie English Telephone: 020 3353 3577 Fax: 020 3353 3195 Email: international@guardian.co.uk Follow our coverage on Twitter: guardianworld

Cameron seeks rethink on Syria arms ban

All EU measures to oust Assad must be on table Turkey calls on Nato to put Patriot missiles on border
Nicholas Watt Amman Ian Black Middle East editor
Britain is to review the EU arms embargo on Syria as part of a wholesale change in strategy in the wake of Barack Obamas re-election that could lead to the eventual arming of the rebel forces ghting to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. As David Cameron said he would press Obama to make Syria a priority, No 10 ocials indicated that the prime minister now wants to put every possible measure to remove Assad back on the table. Camerons visit to the Zaatari Syrian refugee camp in Jordan yesterday, in which he heard appalling stories of suering, persuaded him that Britain and its allies need to review their strategy, a source said. Britains national security council will discuss the crisis in special session next week. It will include a review of the EU ban on providing weapons to all sides in Syria. Ocials say that the embargo includes the principle of proportionality which suggests the restriction could be relaxed in the event of a humanitarian disaster. Evidence of a British rethink on the crisis came on a day when rebels red mortars at a presidential palace in Damascus and as dierent elements of the divided Syrian opposition met in the Qatari capital Doha to try to close ranks and form a transitional government for the post-Assad era. In another indication of regional tensions, Turkey conrmed that it is to make an ocial request to Nato to station Patriot missiles along its border with Syria. The move follows several incidents of shelling across the 560-mile frontier. It could also be linked to the ideas of establishing a safe zone or no-y zone in the border area. The moves by Britain and Turkey both seemed to anticipate a bolder approach from Obama to end the conict that has claimed an estimated 35,000 lives since the bloodiest of the Arab spring uprisings erupted in March 2011. On average 100 to 150 people now die every day. The text of the EU embargo, agreed two months after the conict began, says: The member states may authorise the sale, supply, transfer or export of equipment which might be used for internal repression, under such conditions as they deem appropriate, if they determine that such equipment is intended solely for humanitarian or protective use. Cameron made clear he believes that stage may have been reached after he visited the refugee camp, where 110,000 Syrians are sheltering. I think what I have seen and heard today is truly appalling, said. I think [with] a re-elected president [Obama] with a new mandate its really important to discuss what more we can do to help resolve the situation. Underlining the shift, the foreign oce

A rebel ghter prepares to throw a grenade towards a government forces position down an alleyway in Syrias largest city Aleppo Photograph: John Cantlie/AFP/Getty

announced yesterday that it will talk to military gures in the armed opposition though it insists it has no plans to arm the rebels the suspicion of those who fear a rerun of Natos intervention in Libya last year. Previously the Foreign Office had sanctioned contact only with political representatives of armed Syrian opposition groups. William Hague, the foreign secretary, said in a statement to MPs that Britain would adhere to our clearly stated policy of only supplying non-lethal support to the unarmed opposition. But No 10 believes there is a mismatch in which the EU and the US provide only non-lethal help to the rebels while

With a president with a new mandate ... its important to discuss what more we can do

Russia and Iran provide resources and weapons to Syrian government forces. It is understood that Britain may review the EU embargo as a tactical ploy to persuade the Russians and Chinese, who have pledged to veto any UN security council resolution, to change position. The prime minister wants Britains security council to examine the viability of creating safe havens, an idea championed by Turkey, and to assess whether Assad could be persuaded to stand down by the oer of safe passage to a third country. Ocials acknowledge that it would be dicult to secure such havens without imposing a no-y zone over parts of Syria. This is deemed impossible because China and Russia would block such a move, which would be dicult to enforce in the face of Syrias powerful air force. But Cameron said he was determined to act across a range of fronts. That means more help for the opposition, more pressure at the UN, more help for the refugees, more work with the neighbours but also a general sort of: Look lets be frank what

weve done for the last 18 months hasnt been enough. The slaughter continues, the bloodshed is appalling, the bad eects its having on the region, the radicalisation but also the humanitarian crisis that is engulng Syria. So lets work together on really pushing what more we can do, what other steps we can take to hasten the end of this regime. The No 10 source said: Today is the moment the prime minister came and saw for himself what is happening. This

is the moment to get some impetus going forward. We want to put everything on the table. The main Syrian opposition group, the Syrian National Council, discussed electing a new leader and executive committee yesterday. It and other groups will meet today to form a new 50-member civilian group that will later choose a temporary government for Syria and, western governments hope, improve coordination with armed groups.

Bahrain revokes former MPs nationality

Ian Black Middle East editor
Bahrain has extended a crackdown on the opposition by revoking the nationality of 31 activists it says have damaged state security. The move, conrmed by the state news agency yesterday, is the latest in a series designed to contain protests in the Gulf island state. Two of the activists, Jalal and Jawad Fairooz, are former MPs from al-Wefaq, the mainstream Shia opposition movement, which is at the centre of a confrontation with the Sunni-led government. The brothers are visiting the UK and may now be forced to make high-profile asylum applications that will be awkward for the relationship between the British and Bahraini governments. Others include the London-based dissidents Saeed al-Shehabi and Ali Mushaima, the son of the jailed opposition leader Hassan Mushaima. In April, Ali Mushaima climbed on to the roof of Bahrains embassy in London to publicise demands for democratic change. Last week the government in Manama banned all demonstrations, though it backed down in the face of British criticism and said the ban was only temporary. It was not clear whether the men will be expelled from Bahrain. Bahrains ruling Al Khalifa dynasty imposed martial law and sought help from its Gulf neighbours to put down Shia-led protests against alleged discrimination that began in February last year. But unrest continues with protesters and police clashing almost daily. On Tuesday the government said it had arrested four suspects in bombings that killed two people in Manama and accused the A protester shouts anti-government slogans in Bahrain, where there is currently a blanket ban on holding any demonstration Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah of being behind the attacks. Bahrain is often described as lying on the frontline of a tense confrontation between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbours. It is also home to the US Fifth Fleet. Bahrain regularly accuses Tehran of encouraging unrest, though there is no evidence of any direct involvement. Ali Alaswad, a former Wefaq MP, said: This is a totally inhumane and unwarranted measure that exposes the real mindset of the government. This is one of a series of recent measures that constitute a renewed and repressive crackdown against the opposition and is a hundred miles away from the dialogue and reform promised by the government. It is the clearest evidence yet that even Al Wefaq, the moderate opposition, is being targeted by the crackdown. We have not seen such a sustained attack on the opposition since the period of military rule in 2011. In a similar move last December, the United Arab Emirates revoked the citizenship of seven Islamist activists, claiming they posed a threat to national security. Some of the men had demanded greater powers for the Federal National Council, an elected body that advises the government. In a week that has seen David Cameron visiting the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the British government has been criticised for prioritising defence exports and trade over human rights in its relations with the Gulf autocracies. Bahrains monarchy has made a series of concessions, including giving more powers to the elected parliament, but opposition groups say the reforms do little to loosen the ruling familys hold on power. More than 50 people have been killed in Bahrains unrest since February 2011.

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

International

Catalan leader presses EU on secession issue

PM asks how Brussels will respond if states break up Nationalist advances push issue up the agenda
Ian Traynor Brussels
Catalonias regional leader yesterday sought to call the European Unions blu over a rising tide of national fragmentation and secessionism within the EU, demanding to know what Brussels will do if some of the unions member states splinter for the rst time in EU history. Increasingly at odds with Madrid over the legality of his drive to secure a mandate for a Catalan independence referendum, Artur Mas, the liberal nationalist prime minister of Catalonia who has called early elections for later this month in a bid to obtain that mandate, insisted that if a new country emerged from the Spanish turmoil a separate Catalonia would be entitled to remain a member of the EU inside the euro single currency zone. The big umbrella is the European Union within Europe we can have a different political status, Mas said. He came to Brussels to try to sway minds on Catalan secessionism and to demand answers to the pressing questions being thrown up by the prospect of the emergence of new states within the EU. It has been a promising few weeks for independence movements, with the three-year euro crisis fomenting an upsurge in fragmentation within the 27-member union and within some of its bigger countries. In September hundreds of thousands of Catalans took to the streets of Barcelona demanding home rule within the EU. The Scottish and British prime ministers reached a pact on the terms for a Scottish independence referendum in 2014. Last month in regional elections the Flemish separatist leader, Bart de Wever, gained control of Antwerp, the Flemish capital, Belgiums second city and the EUs second biggest port, gaining a bridgehead on his campaign for a country called Flanders. Senior figures in Brussels have dismissed talk of automatic EU membership for breakaway countries in what looks like a failing eort to discourage secessionism. But the EU has never had to deal with the break-up of a member state. The Catalan, Scottish, and Flemish developments are sending the EU into uncharted territory, legally and politically. Mas threw down the gauntlet to EU policymakers. The will of the Catalan people is to continue joining the European Union and the euro, he said. The question will be when that happens in the future is the European Union prepared to oer solutions to countries like Catalonia? The only thing they want is to change their political status. On a parallel visit to Brussels a few months ago Nicola Sturgeon, the SNPs deputy first minister, bluntly asserted that an independent Scotland would automatically inherit all the rights, entitlements, and obligations of EU membership. It was a contentious statement which appeared unfounded. The issue remains unsettled. Mas, by contrast, admitted the question had not been answered, but demanded a coherent response from EU policy-makers. The European treaties do not say Catalonia can stay in the EU, but they dont say the opposite either, he stated. Artur Mas said an independent Catalonia would want to remain in the European Union and in the eurozone Speaking on the eve of the campaign opening for the Catalan elections on 25 November, Mas also appeared to be attempting to drive a wedge between Madrid and Brussels, arguing that the EU could be forced to choose between the declared will of Catalans voiced freely and democratically in an election and a referendum and the central government in Madrid seeking to outlaw those verdicts under the Spanish constitution. Mas said if separatist parties secured a strong mandate, the consultation referendum would be held within four years. He would seek a deal with Madrid but would also pass new enabling Catalan legislation if Madrid ruled a referendum unconstitutional. The European Union has to take into account that the consultation will take place, he said. If the Spanish state is completely against a consultation, then the European Union will support the democratic will of the Catalan people.

Chef cooked up a taste of Japan in cold war East Germany

Kate Connolly Berlin
Having spent a lifetime slaving over meals of sausage, potato dumplings and beef roulade, Rolf Anschtz itched to turn his hand to something more exotic. But living in 1960s communist East Germany, with the many restrictions imposed by its centrally planned economy, when the chef decided to try Japanese cuisine he found his options were limited. So he experimented with the few ingredients available to him. Tinned rice pudding was transformed into sushi rice, local carp was dyed to resemble salmon, a local variant of Worcestershire sauce was used instead of soy sauce, and Hungarian tokaj wine was mixed with German corn schnapps and heated, to resemble sake, as Anschtz started conjuring Japanese fare in the heart of East Germany. Before long his East German-style Japanese menu had gained cult status,

Ina Paule Klink as Geisha Giesela with Uwe Steimle as Rolf Anschtz in Sushi in Suhl charting Anschtzs culinary struggle

and his restaurant in Suhl, Thuringia, began attracting diners from across the communist state, and also from West Germany and even Japan. His story has now been turned into a lm, which has been attracting large audiences across the country. Sushi in Suhl charts the rise of Anschtzs success, his battles with the authorities, who accused him of culinary capitalism, the friendships he made with Japanese admirers, and his invitation to visit Japan, where he was decorated by the royal family. Just under two million diners passed through his restaurant, the Waenschmied (the Armourer), between 1966 and 1986. Diners had to wait for up to two years to get a table and paid the equivalent of half of a months rent for the full four- or ve-hour Japanese experience, which included a ritual cleansing bath for which guests had to disrobe. This was something of a mythical place in the heart of the communist east, said Conny Gnther, recalling her one visit to Waenschmied on New Years Eve 1985, when the then 25-year old translator and some friends made the four-hour drive from Berlin. First we were led by German girls dressed as geishas and had to descend naked into a pool, where we drank champagne Then in kimonos we started on a 15-course meal in a room full of Japanese decor, during which Anschtz furnished us with anecdotes and stories about Japan. It was a truly exotic experience. The avours, the smells, the music. We were in Japan, not in the largely drab GDR, and didnt even notice the outside world the curtains were drawn. Anschtz sawed the legs o chairs and tables to create an authentic dining space. He turned oral polyester aprons into geisha outts, procured judo suits from the local sports club and dyed them to make kimonos and used his sons drumsticks as a model for chopsticks that were carved by a carpenter friend. When Japanese diplomats and business people got to hear of his venture, it opened up a supply chain that allowed the genuine ingredients such as wasabi, soya sauce, ginger and salmon to be delivered from Japan. The East German authorities soon encouraged the venture, as a way to boost bilateral relations between the two countries. At some point the restaurant was so famous the organisation responsible for state retail had little choice but to tolerate it. It was seen as being in the states interest to do so, even though they would have liked to have more control over my father, said Anschtzs son Jrg, who worked as a waiter in the restaurant. But the fall of the Berlin Wall led to the demise of Anschtzs dream. Its popularity had had much to do with its exclusivity, but once the world opened rld to East Germans, the town of f Suhl and Anschtzs restaurant were largely forgotten.

Today on guardian.co.uk
In pictures The World Press Photo exhibition brings together the nest news photography from the past year Iran blog The family of an Iranian blogger fear he has died in custody

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

29

International
France

Angels delight Fluorescent sh on show

Gay couples set to be able to marry and adopt

Plans to introduce gay marriage and adoption rights were approved by France yesterday amid growing protest from the French right and religious leaders. Franois Hollande, the Socialist president, had made same-sex marriage and adoption a cornerstone of his election campaign, promising a law before mid2013. The draft legislation goes before parliament in January. France would become the 12th country to legalise gay marriage after others such as Canada, South Africa, Spain and Portugal. But with 60 million people it would be the biggest in terms of economic and diplomatic inuence. This would be progress not just for the few, but for our whole society, Hollande told the cabinet meeting. Amid a conservative backlash, Catholic church protests and political squabbling, draft legislation has been delayed and, some argue, watered down. The new law would mean gay couples who have had the right to civil partnerships since 1999 could take their partners name and gain inheritance and pension rights. Adoption would also become legal for married same-sex couples. Angelique Chrisas Paris

Genetically engineered angelsh (Pterophyllum) glow in a tank before the 2012 Taiwan International Aquarium Expo in Taipei yesterday. The sh, the worlds rst pink uorescent angelsh, were created by a joint project between Taiwan academics and Jy Lin, a private biotechnology company Photograph: Pichi Chuang/Reuters I havent spoken to him in over 60 days and his lawyer hasnt been allowed to see him, his daughter Sarah Senussi, 27, said. Rights organisations have asked repeatedly to visit him in jail and they have been refused also. She added that he did not have medications with him and it was not known if he was receiving medical treatment. Senussi is suspected of having played a central role in the killing of more than 1,200 inmates at a Tripoli prison in 1996. It was the arrest of a lawyer acting for relatives that triggered the 2011 revolt. Both the international criminal court and France, which suspects him of involvement in a 1989 airliner bombing over Niger, wanted to take him into custody. The US is also keen to question him about the 1988 Lockerbie bombing. Reuters Tripoli

Congo

Libya

Leading doctor in exile after attempt on his life

A Congolese gynaecologist, honoured for his work with rape victims, says he dare not return home until his security is assured after narrowly surviving an assassination attempt last month. Denis Mukwege was saved by a member of sta who died in the armed raid on his home in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He then left for Stockholm with his daughters, who had been held at gunpoint in the house. I cant guarantee my own security, Mukwege told Reuters during a visit to the European commission in Brus-

sels. As soon as I can guarantee Ill be protected Ill be back. Mukwege, 57, is the founder and medical director of the Panzi hospital, in Bukavu, South Kivu province, where he and his sta treat about 3,000 victims of sexual violence a year. The doctor has won numerous international awards. David Smith

Give Gadda spy chief a fair trial, says daughter

Muammar Gaddas former spy chief is languishing in a Libyan jail with kidney cancer and no access to lawyers, his daughter said yesterday, calling for her father to have a fair trial. Abdullah al-Senussi ed the revolt that toppled Gadda, but was captured in Mauritania and extradited to Libya in September.

Laos

Ceremony for disputed dam project goes ahead

Laos held what was billed as a groundbreaking ceremony yesterday for a $3.5bn (2.2bn) hydropower dam on the Mekong river that is opposed by environmentalists and neighbouring

countries because of its possible impact on livelihoods, sheries and agriculture. The country has ambitions to become the battery of south-east Asia through power exports from dams across the 3,044 mile Mekong. After pressure from its neighbours, Laos had agreed to suspend the project last December, pending a study led by Japan, although it is unclear if that was done. Thai construction giant CH Karnchang has been carrying out preliminary work for nearly two years, with ocials playing down the extent of the work. Thongsing Thammavong, the prime minister of Laos, was quoted by the Wall Street Journal yesterday as saying that the plans were still under review and that the days event was simply an organised visit for journalists, scientists and others. Reuters Laos

30

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012 Business editor: Julia Finch Tel: 020 3353 3795 Fax: 020 3353 3196 Email: nancial@guardian.co.uk Follow us at twitter.com/BusinessDesk

Financial
FTSE 100 -93.27 5791.63 FTSE All Share -45.55 3028.97 Early Dow Indl -294.95 12950.73 Early S&P 500 -31.35 1397.04 Nikkei 225 -2.26 8972.89 UK 10 year gilt -0.7690 120.9300 Oil ($ per barrel) -3.89 107.18 Gold ($ Troy oz) +24.25 1715.25

Rate Change

1.2534 +0.0049

Rate Change

1.5987 +0.0006

$
SOURCE: INTERACTIVE DATA

Sluggish UK may still top Europes growth league

Osborne set to miss key target, commission warns Poor results trigger call for new austerity measures
Larry Elliott Economics editor
The European commission yesterday forecast that George Osborne was likely to miss one of his key debt targets unless he took action in next months autumn statement but it also predicted that struggling Britain would be the fastest growing of Europes big ve economies next year as it pencilled in a further year of stagnation for the austerity-hit countries of the single currency. With some in the City expecting the Bank of England to announce fresh stimulus measures to boost demand today, the commission said a contraction of 0.3% in the UK economy this year would be followed by 0.9% expansion in 2013. However, it expected Germany, France, Italy and Spain to perform even less well than the UK, with the 17-nation eurozone eking out expansion of just 0.1% in 2013. In its regular economic healthcheck on the UK, ocials in Brussels said: The outlook for growth remains very weak in the short term with the main risks to the macro-economic forecast stemming from weaker than expected consumption and investment, and increased turmoil in the George Osborne is likely to miss one of two key debt targets, according to the European commissions latest forecast euro area. The chancellor would have to announce new austerity measures in his autumn statement, it said, to avoid missing one of his two key budgetary targets to reduce the national debt as a share of the economy by the end of the current parliament in 2015. Recent public nance data has been poorer than the Oce for Budget Responsibilitys projections, mainly due to lower corporation tax receipts rather than large increases in expenditure, and may overshoot the borrowing target for this financial year if it continues on its current trajectory. Despite the 1% increase in GDP recorded in the third quarter of 2012, the City believes the monetary policy committees decision today will be tight. Recent business surveys for manufacturing, construction and services have been weak, while data for industrial production and retail sales showed that the strong performance during the Olympics had not been sustained. Howard Archer, chief UK economist with IHS Global Insight, said that he expected the Bank to announce a new 50bn round of quantitative easing but that it would probably hold o until the new year. The commission said the eurozone as a whole would contract by 0.4% this year, markedly worse than the 1.4% growth in 2011. It cut its forecasts for 2013 growth in Germany, France, Italy and Spain as it predicted that unemployment would rise to a fresh peak of 11.8% next year. Brussels blamed the deepening sovereign debt crisis and financial market concerns about a possible breakup of the eurozone for the disappointing growth performance in 2012. It said domestic demand would make no contribution to eurozone GDP in 2013 as the lack of jobs and tax increases hit consumer spending. The commission expressed condence that by 2014 the benets of the austerity programmes would bear fruit, leading to expansion of 1.4%. Although the UK is expected to grow by just 0.9% next year, Brussels believes it will expand more quickly than any of the major economies of the eurozone. The commission has pencilled in growth of 0.8% for Germany, 0.4% for France, a contraction of 0.5% for Italy and a retrenchment of 1.4% for Spain. In all cases the predictions are for output to be weaker than expected by national governments, leading to budget decit reduction targets being missed. Greece is one eurozone economy where the commissions forecasts are less pessimistic than those of the government. The EU executive believes the Greek economy will shrink by 6% this year and 4.2% in 2013 before nally emerging from a sixyear slump with growth of 0.6% in 2014. Spain is expected to remain the eurozones unemployment blackspot, with 26.6% of the workforce jobless in 2013.

Greece aame Violence at anti-austerity protest

10,000 jobs to go at top European rms

Terry Macalister
Leading European companies announced job losses totalling more than 10,000 yesterday, underlining the scale of problems facing the continents manufacturers. Vestas, the worlds largest wind turbine manufacturer, said 2,000 jobs would be cut after it reported an almost doubling of pre-tax losses in the face of falling prices and erce competition from China. Some of those jobs could be in Britain, where 500 jobs are also likely to go at Maltby coalmine in south Yorkshire after its owner, Hargreaves Services, declared it unsafe. Mobile telecoms equipment maker Ericsson said it would cut 1,550 jobs nearly 10% of its sta in Sweden blaming weakness in global demand for falling exports. Elsewhere garden equipment maker Husqvarna cut 600 jobs and German steel company Klckner cut 1,800. In nance, Dutch bank ING said it was laying o 2,350 and a German newspaper reported that Commerzbank, the countrys second biggest lender, might cut 6,000 jobs. Commerzbank declined to comment, ahead of its nancial results today. The Vestas cuts underline the crisis in the renewable energy sector and will reduce its workforce to 16,000 by the end of 2013 from nearly 23,000 just a year ago. Ditlev Engel, Vestas chief executive, reported a pre-tax loss of 158m (126m) for the third quarter compared with 83m for the same period of 2011. The green energy sector has been hit by uncertainty over government subsidy levels globally while facing a drop in prices caused by new competition from low-cost countries such as China. This week Keith MacLean of the SSE power company, which is developing UK oshore farms, told the Financial Times the government had introduced an unnecessary investment freeze by trying to change the way it subsidised low-carbon energy. Siemens is one of the few turbine manufacturers to have taken an oshore order in Britain over the past year.

Larry Elliott
Violence erupted on the streets of Athens last night as a crowd of at least 80,000 gathered to protest against fresh austerity measures being voted on by the Greek parliament. Police red teargas, stun grenades and water cannons in an attempt to prevent a small group of protesters,

some of them throwing petrol bombs that engulfed at least one ocer (above), from storming the parliament building. News agencies reported smoke and small res in the streets near Syntagma Square, the scene of the biggest protests seen in the Greek capital in recent months. The angry scenes came at the

end of a two-day general strike called to oppose a 13.5bn (10.7bn) package of cuts demanded by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund in return for a nancial lifeline to prevent the government running out of money. Greeces central bank has seen a mass resignation of 45 o-

cials angry at wage caps imposed as part of the belt-tightening. The parliamentary debate was briey halted when sta and opposition MPs walked out. But despite the protests inside and outside the chamber, the coalition government of Antonis Samaras, pictured left, was condent last night that it would secure parliamentary approval for the cuts needed to trigger the 31bn bailout. Main photograph: Dimitri Messinis/AP

Comet gears up for closing-down sale with fears that rst stores will shut next week
Zoe Wood and Nadine Schimroszik
The administrators of Comet have begun slashing the price of unsold stock as they gear up to press the button on a full-blown re sale. With the retailers website promising the Comet sale is starting soon it was already offering a 10% discount in stores yesterday, although the promotion did not include must-have gadgets such as tablet computers. Accountants from Deloitte took charge of the loss-making retailer at the end of last week after its US backers refused to provide additional funds to keep it going. The retailer, which has more than 6,600 sta and 236 stores, had also lost the support of its suppliers, since being cut adrift by its stock exchange-listed owner Darty at the start of this year. With the prospect of huge job losses, the collapse of Comet has sparked controversy. It was bought by OpCapita for a token 2, but it came with a 50m dowry and industry insiders predict the turnaround rm, which is run by former investment banker Henry Jackson, will still make a multimillion pound prot from the deal. With no buyer expected to emerge for the whole chain there is a growing expectation that it will broken up, with its best stores cherry-picked by rivals such as Dixons and Staples. Retail insiders have suggested that some stores may begin closing as early as next week. But with many suppliers asking for payment up front, Comets stock reserves are already depleted. It held roughly 180m of stock when it was acquired by OpCapita, but this was reduced to 120m as sold goods were not replaced and it is not thought to have been able to source new stock in recent weeks. Deloitte would only confirm that sale activity was getting under way today. The failure of Comet, the UKs second largest electricals specialist, is expected to result in a sales boost for market leader Dixons and yesterday its chief executive, Sebastian James, said it would oer a lifeline to thousands of Comet workers who are facing redundancy. The owner of PC World and Currys has delayed its normal Christmas recruitment drive, when it drafts in an additional 3,000 seasonal shop and warehouse staff, to give Comet sta the opportunity to apply for the temporary positions. Dixons said more than 500 Comet sta had already made inquiries with many walking into its stores still dressed in their Comet uniforms. For now the jobs are temporary, but we are hoping that a good number will become permanent, said a spokesman. The high street electricals market in the UK has come under huge pressure as shoppers put o purchases of big-ticket items. In the wake of Fridays formal appointment, Deloitte stopped stores from accepting gift vouchers. That decision was reversed on Tuesday after it emerged disabled children, who had received vouchers from the Family Fund charity, were among those hit.

500

The number of Comet sta who have inquired about jobs at rival retailer Dixons, owner of Currys and PC World

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

31

Financial

Boardroom gender quotas dangerous, says Burberry boss

Ahrendts dismisses idea to boost number of women Fashion rm reports 30% drop in rst-half prots
Zoe Wood
Burberry boss Angela Ahrendts yesterday dismissed the idea of quotas to boost the number of women in the boardroom as dangerous, despite growing evidence of discrimination in the business world and the prospect of just two female chief executives in the FTSE 100 next year. Asked if she was in favour of the imposition of quotas, Ahrendts said: Im not. I think its dangerous Whether its countries or companies, its about putting the best person in the job who can unite people and create value. A man could do this job just as well as I can. The American, who took the helm at the British fashion brand six years ago, added that it was not an issue that she fretted about: I dont spend a lot of time thinking about this, what with three kids, running the company and being at out busy. The recent resignations of Pearson boss Dame Marjorie Scardino and Cynthia Carroll, the chief executive of mining rm Anglo American, have reignited the debate about why there is a dearth of women at the top of Britains biggest companies. Their departures will leave just Ahrendts and Imperial Tobaccos Alison Cooper fronting FTSE 100 companies in 2013. Pointing to the growing number of female university graduates, Ahrendts suggested it was just a matter of time before the gender balance improved. Announcing her decision to leave the media and publishing group Pearson after 15 years in charge, Scardino who also rejected quotas sounded a less optimistic note, saying: I thought, in 1997, that by the time I left Pearson, things would be dierent in terms of the number of chief executives and board members who are women. Its not really too dierent and, for that, Im sorry. Royal Mails chief executive, Moya Greene, has also waded into the debate and is one of the few top female bosses to support the introduction of quotas to boost the number of women ion the boardroom. She has described the current pace of change as glacial. Despite a urry of female appointments in the wake of last years government inquiry led by Lord Davies of Abersoch, which set a target of 25% female representation on FTSE boards by 2015, women still occupy fewer than one-in-ve FTSE 100 boardroom seats, with new hires strongly biased towards part-time, non-executive roles rather than promoting full-time employees into the most senior jobs. A report published earlier this week by the Chartered Management Institute also made grim reading. It found that female executives earn 400,000 less over the course of their working lives than male colleagues with identical careers and are far more likely to be made redundant. Ahrendts comments came as Burberry reported almost a 30% drop in rst-half prots to 112m on sales of 883m. The decline reected the companys decision to start producing its own perfume and makeup. In keeping with an industry-wide trend, the 156-year-old rm is buying back licences and has agreed to pay the French group Interparfums 181m (145m) to sever its agreement, booking a 74m accounting charge. The fashion rm said the decision would not have an impact on prots in the short term, but Investec analyst Bethany Hocking predicted it would create a 71m boost by 2017. The rm, best known for its raincoats lined with a distinctive camel, red and black check design, spooked investors with a prot warning in September that whipped 1bn o its stock market value. At that time it said growth had stalled in July and August, particularly in China, which has fuelled a near three-year boom in demand for luxury goods. Burberry also revealed that the spending power of its more aspirational consumers a term used to describe middle-class consumers who spend a large proportion of their disposable income on designer labels but cannot stretch to the most expensive items had been hit by the faltering global economy. It was able to make up some of the lost ground, with prot margins up in the six months to 30 September, as it sold a higher proportion of goods from its top-end lines to its wealthiest customers. The growing divide between Burberrys wealthy shoppers and its middle-class customers has been reected in the fortunes of its various brands. Its most expensive ranges, such as Prorsum, which it shows on the catwalk, and London, are doing well, while sales of the cheaper casualwear line, Brit, which includes jeans and polo shirts, have slumped. Last month Burberry said sales had steadied in the final weeks of its second quarter and yesterday there was no change to its prot outlook for the second half. Shares closed down more than 4% at 11.99.

Pay gap has widened in past 25 years, ONS data shows

Mark King
The gap between the highest and lowest earners in Britain has widened over the past 25 years, with the top 1% seeing a triple digit increase in real earnings between 1986 and 2011, according to data from the Oce for National Statistics (ONS). In April 2011, the top 1% of earners in the UK received an average 61.10 an hour or 135,666 a year based on the average number of hours worked by fulltime employees in Britain, compared with 28.18 an hour in 1986, a rise of 117% in real terms. Over the same 25-year period the lowest paid 10% of workers saw their wages increase by 47% to an average of 7.01 an hour, or 15,565 a year. However, the ONS said the introduction of the minimum wage in April 1999 had propped up the pay of the bottom 1% of earners, who experienced a 70% increase to 5.93 an hour over 25 years. Since 1998 in other words, since the introduction of the national minimum wage those at the very bottom end of the earnings distribution have done best, with the bottom 1% having a real increase of 51%, compared with an increase of 30% for the top 1%, the ONS said. The ONS gures take into account the impact of rising prices on spending power, which over the 25-year period has seen the Real-term rise in pay enjoyed by the top 1% of UK earners since 1986, as compared with 47% for the lowest-paid 10%

117

For countries or rms, its about putting the best person in the job
Angela Ahrendts

Burberry is one of few FTSE 100 rms with a female chief Photo: Dominic Lipinski

value of each 1 earned decrease so that it now costs 2.01 to buy goods that cost 1 in 1986. Adjusting these price increases to give an estimate of real earnings growth, the ONS said full-time employees were on average 62% better o in 2011 than in 1986. The figures showed London had the biggest wage inequality in 2011, with the top earners pay more than 16 times higher than the lowest, and that more than one in three of the highest paid jobs in the country were in the capital. The least inequality was in Wales where the highest earners had wages seven times higher than the lowest. Brendan Barber, general secretary of the TUC, said: Todays gures show that while the minimum wage has provided an important pay boost to the very poorest workers, inequality has risen throughout the UK over the past quarter of a century. The top 1% beneted most from the boom, played the biggest role in causing the crash, and then protected their earnings during the recession. The data also indicated that the recession had damaged earnings across the board, with wage growth failing to keep pace with price rises between 2007 and 2011. This was in contrast to the recession of the early 1990s when pay increased against a gloomy economic backdrop.

FirstGroup in talks to extend franchise

Gwyn Topham Transport correspondent
FirstGroup is negotiating an extension to its Great Western rail franchise as it continues to hold out the threat of legal action over the governments decision to overturn awarding it the west coast mainline. The franchising asco left FirstGroups share price in tatters, but the rm hopes to retain the London-Bristol-Wales route on enhanced terms, despite allowing the franchise to expire in early 2013 rather than 2016 to avoid an estimated 800m in premium payments. FirstGroups chief executive, Tim OToole, said he was in discussions about terms of the extensions that were within governments gift. The timetable for a new franchise has already moved from April to July, and the competition is on hold pending the ndings of two inquiries into the west coast debacle called by the transport secretary, Patrick McLoughlin. OToole said his company was still seeking satisfactory explanations for what had led to the cancellation of the west coast competition in October almost two months after the Department for Transport announced FirstGroup would be taking over the running of the London-Manchester-Glasgow service from Virgin. OToole said an interim report by Centrica boss, Sam Laidlaw, into the ministrys handling of the franchise process had shed no light, and warned retrospective explaFirstGroup boss Tim OToole says he is still seeking satisfactory explanations over the west coast franchising asco nations would not be acceptable. We really want to know what the justication was at the time. There was a great deal [in Laidlaws report] on the lack of transparency but that wasnt a revelation to us. That was the design of the competition. He said the ndings had to show more than things they dont like or want to change , adding that terminating the competition had been a traumatic thing for us and the whole industry. We want to know if there were any other options. We want absolute clarity on what went wrong and why it had to be handled this way. OToole, who leads the industrys strategic forum, the Rail Delivery Group, said his company was aligned with the other major franchise owners in urging the government to restart the stalled franchising programme as soon as possible. FirstGroup is still discussing compensation for its fruitless west coast bid, but OToole said the government had not yet agreed to any for other paused bids, despite mounting sta costs incurred during the delay. Analysts warned that shareholders would be rattled by the groups decision to cut promised dividend payments, after pre-tax prots announced yesterday fell from 128m in the rst half of the last nancial year to 8.4m for the six months to the end of September 2012. Gerald Khoo of investment bank Espirito Santo said: It will undermine condence among those investors who had relied on the boards previous strident defence of seeing through the current policy.

Chinese demand for luxury cars keeps Jaguar roaring ahead

Dan Milmo Industrial editor
Demand for Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) cars in China remains strong with the UK manufacturer reporting a 58% increase in second-quarter sales in the worlds largest car market. Chinas interest in luxury British brands has been the subject of investor disquiet in recent months, with shares in retailers Mulberry and Burberry bearing the brunt, but Asian appetite for JLR products appears undimmed. The Indian-owned car maker, which employs 24,000 people in Britain, said it sold 17,152 vehicles in the three months to September. Across the group, JLR sold 84,749 cars, up 29% on the same period last year as pre-tax prots doubled to 431m. JLRs chief executive, Ralf Speth, said the company had seen strong sales across all our key markets. China is JLRs third largest market, behind the US and Britain, with the latter also showing a strong performance as sales climbed by more than a fifth. JLRs Chinese sales growth was slower than the previous quarter, however, when it produced an increase of 86% for the three months to the end of June a sales spurt that JLR attributed in part to the launch of the Evoque in China. The performance of the likes of JLR and German car maker BMW, which announced a 40% increase in quarterly Chinese sales this week, contrasts starkly with European mass-market producers. Frances Peugeot Citron is being rescued by the French state, while Ford has announced plans to shut three European plants, including two in the UK, and General Motors is expected to shut its Bochum site in Germany. European factories used by Peugeot Citron, Ford and GM are focused on meeting demand from a continental market that is in a steep decline, having fallen for the 12th successive month in September. Premium carmakers, by contrast, make fewer vehicles and have the outlet of strong US and emerging market demand.

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Financial

Business analysis Markets may face a wild ride ahead

Americas scal cli

Will long-term thinking triumph, asks Nils Pratley

Would a Romney victory have been better for share prices? That notion, popular on Wall Street, always smacked of wishful thinking as the Republican candidates proposed friendly tax treatment for corporate dividends had to be set against his intention to declare China a currency manipulator on his rst day in oce. The prospect of a trade war, or at least import taris, seemed quite capable of terrifying investors from the o. Its a redundant debate now. We can nally focus on the real action: how will the US approach its so-called scal cli ? The US institutional investors, led by BlackRock, that warned on the eve of polling that the budget crisis had been barely discussed during campaigning were correct. Now, though, the discussions will be loud and constant. Prepare for a volatile nale to 2012 for markets. Yesterdays 2% plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average may just be a taster. Logic suggests a budget compromise

Up-to-the-minute news and expert analysis on our business, economics and markets blogs at guardian.co.uk/business

of some form. Even a divided Congress, surely, wont allow $600bn (375bn) to be sucked out of a still-weak economy next year via spending cuts and tax hikes. But the measures are due to be implemented automatically on 1 January unless Congress agrees a dierent course. Is it realistic to expect longterm thinking to triumph over the next seven weeks? It seems quite possible that the US could travel over the cli before the games of political brinkmanship are abandoned and a scramble towards safety is enacted. The journey to that point, though, could be wild for markets. Then theres the nature of any eventual deal. Many broad-brush formulas have been proposed but theres no Goldilocks solution. The US could suer another downgrade to its credit rating if the agencies deem the measures too soft to prevent government debt reaching 100% of GDP. Alternatively, markets could be spooked if the cuts are deep enough to risk a fall back into recession. But one of those unattractive alternatives will have to be confronted in 2013. The great hope of those letter-writing

investment managers was that the piles of cash sitting on US companies balance sheets $1.7tn by some estimates will be put to more productive use once the magic ingredient of certainty appears. Its an attractive and powerful idea. Just dont expect to see much certainty in 2013. Even with a budget deal, there will be a lengthy postmortem on whether the right compromise was struck. The best rule of thumb on stock markets and US presidents has always been this: the rst year of their term is often the worst of the four for share prices. It looks a reasonable bet this time.

Retail

Life should smell sweeter for Burberry with perfume purchase

Burberry could have taken back the licence to make its own perfumes for free on the last day of 2017. Instead, it will exercise an option to pay 181m (144m) to licensee Interparfums to get full control from next April. Does this deal, causing an ugly accounting scar in Burberrys half-year numbers, make sense? At face value the fashion group

will have to sell an awful lot more of the smelly stu to justify the outlay. Indeed, in the rst year of control there wont be any benet whatsover in nancial terms: the expected operating prot of 25m will merely replace lost licence revenue of the same amount. From the second year, however, life should get considerably better. Yesterdays statement was short on hard forecasts and long on vague ideas like the halo eect on the brand, but Burberry-watchers have learned not to be too dismissive of the latter. The revitalisation of Burberry over the past decade has relied in part on wresting control from licensees and distributors and managing more inhouse. In a world of big advertising budgets there should be signicant advantages in running perfumes directly. In short, by 2017 the Burberry perfume business ought to be much bigger and more valuable than the one that would have arrived for free. As Investecs analyst put it, there is an element of jam tomorrow in the transaction. But, despite the immediate accounting hit, this looks a smart piece of business by chief executive Angela Ahrendts.

Finance

Banks must face break up if ringfencing fails

The threat of breaking up banks should be retained by the government, a top Bank of England ocial said yesterday, as he outlined proposed changes to the ringfencing idea recommended by the Independent Commission on Banking. Andy Haldane, responsible for nancial stability at the Bank, told MPs and peers on the banking standards commission that banks should not be given exibility on what parts of their business should lie inside the ringfence put up between their high street and investment banking arms. Haldane picked up on a idea oated by Andrew Tyrie, the Conservative MP who chairs the committee, to put legislation in place allow a full break-up of banks if the ringfence is not implemented properly. It was an idea worth thinking about, Haldane said. From an incentive perspective, what it makes clear is

if for whatever reason the ringfence doesnt work as planned the next step is not to remove it entirely but to go the logical next step, he said. Banks would only complain if they planned to work round or game the ringfence. After the committee meeting Tyrie said: The ringfence, wherever it is placed and whatever its height, will need vigorously to be patrolled to ensure full implementation in spirit as well as the letter. The committee will want to explore whether that may require some future statutory support. Haldane, who recently lent his support to the Occupy protesters, said there needed to be full and faithful implementation of the recommendations set out by the ICB, which was chaired by Sir John Vickers (pictured below). But he called for a tougher approach to be taken on what activities should be placed inside the ringfence, listing lending to small businesses and trade nance as a business line that should be inside the ringfence. Haldane also raised the idea of a central database being created for current accounts to bolster competition in a market where it is notoriously dicult to move between providers. Jill Treanor

Falling star ECB under pressure

Media

Time Warner prot beats expectations

Time Warner has reported a higherthan-expected quarterly prot as it lost less cable advertising to rival NBC than anticipated during the Olympic Games. For the third quarter Time Warner which owns a host of cable networks, premium TV service HBO, magazines and a movie studio logged a 4% revenue increase at its networks division. But the growth stemmed from subscription revenue from cable operators, while advertising in the segment fell 1%. The Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson had forecast a decline of 2% and said advertising revenue had suered because of the Olympics, which lasted 17 days in the third quarter and helped rival Comcasts NBC Universal to score an additional $1.2bn (750m) in quarterly revenue. However, Time Warners chief executive, Je Bewkes, said the company was experiencing good momentum across most of the Turner networks, such as TBS. Reuters

Resources

Russian divers nd sunken treasure

Polymetal has tended to attract more publicity as one of a number of natural resources companies from the former Soviet republic that have controversially listed in London. But it has become the subject of an entirely dierent sort of tale after Russian scuba divers found a sunken cargo ship loaded with 700 tonnes of gold ore owned by the FTSE 100 group. The 40-year-old freighter, Amurskaya, disappeared in the Okhotsk sea 11 days ago. But the transport ministry said yesterday state lifeguards had located the vessel, though with no sign of its nine-member crew or lifeboats. Scuba divers investigated the sunken object and it is the Amurskaya freighter. We plan to continue penetrating the vessel, the lifeguards said. The ore aboard the Amurskaya is worth about $230,000 (144,000). Simon Goodley

The euro symbol outside the European Central Bank, which is expected to leave eurozone interest rates unchanged today Photograph: Hannelore Foerster/Getty

Germany

Betfair scraps online gambling after tax row

Betfair has withdrawn its online sports betting exchange in Germany, blaming the countrys gambling tax regime for making its main product unviable. The company has been arguing with German tax authorities that its main product should not attract the 5% tax on stakes, as it does not actually take bets but allows punters to bet with each other. Shares in the group initially slumped on the news although they have recovered since. The company oated in 2010 at 13 a share on the back of a growth strategy that included geographic expansion. The gambling group said: Betfair has been working with the relevant tax authorities to seek clarication on interpretation of the law and its applicability to exchanges. The company is disappointed, however, that to date the tax authorities have not been able to agree to an interpretation of the law that

would allow Betfair to continue to oer the exchange product. Consequently, Betfair has decided to withdraw its exchange product from the German market. Analysts say that if Germany makes Betfair pay tax on the betting exchange business it will retrospectively owe up to 25m. Simon Goodley

Fuel

Asda leads supermarket drive to cut petrol costs

Hundreds of supermarket lling stations will be oering cheaper fuel from today. Asda led the way, announcing a 2p cut in petrol and diesel. Sainsburys and Tesco have followed suit and are promising price cuts of up to 2p a litre. Asda said its reductions would mean motorists paying no more than 131.7p a litre for petrol and 137.7p a litre for diesel. Andy Peake, Asdas petrol trading director, said: Unlike other retailers, our price cuts benet everyone across the country, meaning that no one lling up at Asda will be forced to play a postcode lottery. David Bizley, RACs technical director, said: These price cuts are welcome, but they only solve part of the problem. The price that motorists pay on the forecourt is almost 60% tax. PA

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Reviews Reviews

No need to improvise What to see at the London jazz festival guardian.co.uk/music

New musical goes by the book and proves that less is more
Theatre
Daddy Long Legs St James, London
Jean Websters 1912 novel about an orphan girl and her mysterious benefactor has cast a long shadow. It spawned a Broadway play and several movies, including one in which, rather creepily, an aged Fred Astaire fell for a young Leslie Caron. I also dimly recall a popular 1950s British musical version, Love from Judy. Now John Caird and composer-lyricist Paul Gordon have used the story as the source for a twocharacter show that, slightly to my surprise, I found totally captivating. As adaptor-director, Caird has followed a practice he learned from working on the Royal Shakespeare Companys Nicholas Nickleby that of going back to the book. So he preserves the epistolary framework of Websters novel, in which Jerusha Abbott writes endless letters to the shy philanthropist, known only as Mr Smith, who pays for her education, and whom she assumes to be old and crotchety. In reality, he is a young New York bachelor, Jervis Pendleton, who happens to be the uncle of one of Jerushas college contemporaries. So he is able to discreetly witness Jerushas growth while she is innocently pouring out her feelings to her shadowy benefactor. As a musical, it has many negative virtues: no imam, no scenic excess and, mercifully, nothing resembling the deep-south blackface number from Love from Judy entitled Get Out Your Old Banjo. And the show brims with positive qualities, of which the best is its preservation of Websters instinctive feminism. Jerusha is a sparky gure who reads voraciously, increasingly dees her paymaster and wittily announces, on joining the Fabians, that thats a socialist whos willing to wait. The bond between Jerusha and Jervis, himself a wealthy renegade, is intellectual as much as emotional: Gordons highly pleasurable numbers often dwell on the joys of reading, and contain more deftly interwoven solos than full-throated romantic duets. Cairds production keeps the action simple, relying on deftly rearranged packing cases, another hangover from the RSC Dickens, to suggest changes of locale. Megan McGinnis, who originated the role of Jerusha in Los Angeles in 2009, is also outstanding. She allows the songs to apparently grow out of some inner impulse, and beautifully conveys Jerushas shrewd goodheartedness, at one point remarking of a pair of elderly puritans that they are rather better than their God. Robert Adelman Hancock, similarly with the show from the start, invests Jervis with exactly the right Jamesian mix of reserve and manipulativeness and, not for the rst time, a chamber-musical proves far more fun than many a big, blowsy spectacle. Michael Billington Until 8 December. Box Oce: 0844 264 2140.

33

several songs, the girl-power feistiness of her young company proves infectious. Mark Fisher Until 17 November. Box oce: 0141-429 0022.

Jazz
Dianne Reeves Ronnie Scotts, London
Dianne Reeves is often considered the torch-bearer of the great Sarah Vaughans operatic-jazz legacy. But if the names of Vaughan and Ella Fitzgerald are often invoked as proof of her class, Reeves has been open to a wider world than jazz. Since her early years (aided by her 1980s mentor, Harry Belafonte), she has been inuenced by sounds from Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. She has enjoyed big-star treatment in recent years, but these intimate performances at Ronnie Scotts revealed new depths to this passionate, fearless and technically astonishing artist. A compatible quartet comprising Romero Lubambo (guitar), the elegantly economical Peter Martin (piano), Reginald Veal (bass) and Terreon Gully (drums) opened Mondays show on their own. They seamlessly accelerated from soft, acoustic-guitar musings, though a Latin-jazz pulse that built to a danceoor groove. Reeves arrived with unstarry casualness to Gullys quiet rimshot tick. She oated a pure, high sound, curled it downward and slowly revealed the song to be The Twelfth of Never. Within moments, her clarity of phrasing and vocal agility were drawing startled reactions from the audience. A awlessly articulated and unaccompanied African chant turned into a stately Cuban swinger, before Reeves conjured an astonishing interpretation of Stormy Weather, with eerie falsetto pleas. Bob Marleys Waiting in Vain rolled out over a languid shue, and Im in Love Again beneted from a perfect arrangement. Fitzgeraldlike fast scat opened the second half, before Reeves ripped into a gospelly, sexually charged and increasingly freewheeling love song that felt like eavesdropping on private ecstasy and turmoil. It was a show for the 2012 fave-raves list. John Fordham

Deftly interwoven solos Megan McGinnis and Robert Adelman Hancock in Daddy Long Legs Photograph: Tristram Kenton

and daring, reminding us that Vivaldi was a remarkably astute psychologist. This is territory in which Prina, one of the great interpreters of Italian baroque, seems thrillingly at ease. Her tangy contralto carries a whi of androgyny that comfortably embraces the ambiguities of a repertory written predominantly for castrated men. Technical exactitude combines with histrionic power in singing of tremendous insight and immediacy. Perdissimo Cor! smarted with rage and despair. Cessate, Omai Cessate, with its morbid imagery and violent thoughts of revenge, was a coloratura descent into hell. There were moments of relief from the prevailing intensity: Alcinas aria from Orlando Furioso was exquisite in its sensuality; in Amor, Hai Vinto, Prina swept away the remaining emotional shadows to bring the programme to a close in a mood of optimistic extravagance. Formed earlier this year, Il Pomo dOro is an ensemble of considerable presence and charm. They came very much into their own when Prina was away from the platform. Giuseppe Brescianellos Sinfonia in F revealed the warmth of their string tone. Masani was the dexterous, if unshowy soloist in performances of Vivaldis Violin Concertos in C and E Minor, RV181 and 277 respectively. A ne evening, pleasurable and revelatory in equal measure. Tim Ashley

entire show with the kind of xed-smile sincerity you normally only associate with cowboy builders and game-show hosts. There are plenty of warbling tots, a few illusions from Paul Kieve, and Barry Howard plays Jacob Marley with a nod to Fifty Shades of Grey-style bondage and a dusting of icing sugar. Its the relentless perky sweetness of the whole thing that wears you down, exemplied by Steeles star turn as Ebenezer, a Scrooge who seems less in need of redemption than some time out on the naughty step without his comfort blankie. Steele has the face of a baby, the walk of Howard from Fresh Meat and a cheeky-chappie persona overlaid with a touch of camp. He works with gleeful energy. But it is all to no avail, because his Scrooge is never prepared to appear unlikable and wants us to love him so much that the redemptive power of the story is squandered to teethnsmiles showbiz gloss. Lyn Gardner Until 12 January. Box oce: 0844 412 4655.

cameos), who explains she would rather be expressing her political anger in words than in music. Only then does she give us the song. The soundtrack, too, with its worldmusic arrangements and pop sensibility, is free of showbiz schmaltz. With a more commercial approach, the producers might have dropped the songs that dont move the plot forward. They might also have demanded a bit more plot. That, however, would be to underestimate the emotive power of a story driven by righteous adolescent anger. We are moved by the truth of the real-life story and the thrill of political engagement. Under the direction of Cora Bissett, who also contributes

Theatre
Glasgow Girls Citizens, Glasgow
As the librettist for the forthcoming musical adaptation of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, David Greig knows all about the demands of a traditional West End show. By contrast, Glasgow Girls, the playwrights current song-anddance outing, refuses to play by conventional musical rules. In this co-production between the National Theatre of Scotland, the Citizens and Theatre Royal Stratford East, he tells the true story of seven pupils from Drumchapel high school who, in 2005, launched a campaign against dawn raids, child detention and deportations of asylum seekers. Yet, for all their success in getting press coverage, a debate in the Scottish parliament and, indeed, a musical written about them, the girls have yet to reach the happy ending they deserve. Our story is mostly about p photocopying, says one in a py g, y characteristically sardonic assessment. Glasgow Although Glasgo Girls zzes with sisters-doing-it-forsisters-doin themselves energy, it resists ener the genres pull towards t sentimentality. A case in point concerned is the concerne neighbour Myra (played by M McFadyen McFadye in one of a series of delightfully deadpan Fixed-smi Fixed-smile sincerity Scrooge: Scrooge The Musical

Classical
Prina/Il Pomo dOro/Minasi Wigmore Hall, London
If you thought pastoral was a safe and mainly restrained genre, then Sonia Prinas concert, with Il Pomo dOro and its director Riccardo Minasi, was guaranteed to shatter your expectations. Roughly half the programme was given over to secular cantatas by Vivaldi describing the amatory turmoils of shepherds and shepherdesses. Nothing about them is reined in or modest. They analyse the vacillations of desire, hope and despair in a vocal that is insightful

Theatre
Scrooge: The Musical London Palladium
There is probably only one way to stop Tommy Steele from playing Scrooge a role he has been reprising on and o for seven years and that would be to cancel Christmas entirely for the next decade. It would be a small price to pay to save theatregoers from this cheery but dreary spectacle, which sticks to Dickenss novella in outline but doesnt bother with any of the storys darker and less comfortable truths, or try to capture its transformative spirit. p Leslie Bricusses music and book are sses completely inoensive, o Paul Farnsworths ths design goes for r lashings of themeemepark Victorian atmosphere, and Bob Thomsons direction moves the cast eciently y about the stage as they deliver the

More reviews online

Walsh renders his act funny by sheer commitment to the ideas: falling over in public becomes an experience of gibbering self-mortication Brian Logan on Seann Walsh at the Leicester Square theatre, London

guardian.co.uk/culture Tweet your reviews using #gdnreview

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Comment

Debate

Timothy Garton Ash Xi Jinping faces deeper challenges than Barack Obama. We must hope they are met: it could be a matter of war and peace

Two superpower leaders, two very dierent crises

Dorries disgrace
Louise Mensch Im a Celebrity is no place for a serving MP. To say it oers a political platform is a shabby excuse
id-Bedfordshire is a safe Conservative seat. Barring some disaster, an MP can expect to occupy such a berth for their entire career. Until Tuesday, Nadine Dorries had that chance. And yet she decided to y to Australia instead, to appear on the reality TV show Im a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here. When I resigned as an MP, it was because I could not make family life work with my husband on another continent. I would innitely have preferred to have seen out my term, but it was not to be; and that is something I will regret for the rest of my life. But not in a million years would I have agreed to go on a reality TV show. Upon hearing the news, Tory MPs on Twitter were unusually frank. Andrew Griths, Claire Perry and Michael Fabricant all went on the record. Im not t to be an MP kick me out of here, said Perry; She has let down her colleagues, said Fabricant; #betteroffout, said Griths, perhaps presciently employing the Ukip hashtag. Commentators were quick to underline the fact that Dorries constituents would go unrepresented for a month, and what a scandal that was. It isnt quite that simple. Gordon Brown is rarely in the Commons, yet he does not get lambasted for it (much). More to the point is the demeaning of the role of an MP, as well as the secrecy surrounding her decision (it would appear from an interview with the chairman of the MidBedfordshire Conservative Association that Dorries had not spoken to him; the whips were similarly kept in the dark). As a seasoned media performer, Dorries knows how to work a message. She must have had some idea how unpopular this move would be. So to justify her choice, she fell back on a populist argument: Im doing the show because 16 million people watch it, she said. If people are watching Im a Celebrity, that is where MPs should be going. She added that she was also doing it to raise awareness of her pro-life views. It is true that more people watch Im a Celebrity than prime ministers questions. But they also expect their politicians to do more than appear on gameshows. Eating grubs and performing humiliating tasks on air are not consistent with being an MP unless youre retired, or desperate. No matter: on Monday, Dorries was talking to the Mirror about packing her bikini. The Conservatives acted with appropriate speed in suspending the whip, pending an interview without coee with the chief whip. I was rather surprised that the whip was not simply withdrawn. Speaking as a moderate pro-lifer myself, it was the shabby excuse of using the platform to highlight her views on abortion that was the worst thing of all. If its about life, then donate the 40,000 to adoption charities. Nadine never forgave me for trying to introduce a moderate, alternative amendment to her own on counselling, which would have meant abortion providers were banned from oering counselling to women undecided as to their choice. I sought to introduce an amendment protecting those providers but adding independent counselling, principally on the NHS, as an alternative. Dorries never understood that in a pro-choice country, pro-life goals can only be achieved in pro-choice ways. She failed, and the movement will make no gains whatsoever while she is allowed to remain its spokeswoman. There is, however, one positive thing about the whole aair. In the future, we will see fewer politicians thinking of George Galloway or Dorries-esque ways to boost their prole. Celebrity is eeting; laws actually matter. I envy and honour my former colleagues, on all sides, who are still making them. Louise Mensch is a former Conservative MP for Corby

Which superpower is getting stronger, and which faces the deeper crisis? The answers are China, and China

o, in the same week, it is revealed to us who will be the next leaders of both superpowers: Barack Obama and Xi Jinping. The only dierence is that we didnt know it would be Obama until after Tuesdays vote. By contrast, we knew it would be Xi long before the process that begins in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today, from which he will emerge as Communist party leader, becoming the countrys president next spring. The coincidence prompts two questions: which superpower is getting stronger? And which faces the deeper crisis of its economic and political system? Though this may sound contradictory, the answers are: China and China. Through its sheer size, developmental advantages of backwardness, entrepreneurial people, history of imperial statehood and manifest individual and collective hunger for wealth and power (a proverbial phrase in Chinese), China will become relatively stronger and therefore, since all power is relative, the US will become relatively weaker. But China also has the more profound systemic problems which, if not addressed, may both slow its rise and make it an unstable, unpredictable and even aggressive state. Over the last ve years, starting already in the twilight of George W Bush, the US has gone through a great time of troubles. With no schadenfreude at all, I predict that China will face its own time of troubles over the next ve. We all know about Americas problems, which were comprehensively aired in the election campaign and referred to by Obama in an acceptance speech that at times sounded more like a civics lecture. Decit and debt, gridlocked Congress, a tax code longer than the Bible, neglected infrastructure and schools, dependence on foreign oil, the stranglehold of money over politics: I dont underestimate the diculty of tackling them. But we all know about them and thats the point. We dont know the full extent of Chinas problems because Chinese media are not allowed to report them properly. In ocial party-state deliberations, the issues are hidden behind ideological code phrases. Some of Chinas developmental challenges would exist even if it had the best political system in the world. It has gone through the biggest, fastest industrial revolution in human history. Its urban population has grown by some 480 million in 30 years, so more than half its people now live in cities. It may be close to the so-called Lewis turning point, when the supply of cheap labour from the countryside begins to dry up. It must

attend to its own domestic demand, for it cannot rely on the US being forever the consumer of last resort. But many of its problems result from its peculiar system, which may be called Leninist capitalism. Since the mechanics of Americas electoral college have been explained to the point of exhaustion, let me just remind you of the Chinese version: 2,270 delegates to the 18th national congress of the Chinese Communist party, which starts today, elect some 370 members of the central committee, who in turn elect some two dozen members of the politburo, who in turn elect a nine- or perhaps now only seven-member standing committee, which stands at the pinnacle of the party-state. All the key appointments will in fact have been decided in advance, in horsetrading and intrigue behind closed doors. Vladimir Ilyich Lenin would thoroughly approve. Yet at the same time, the vast Chinese state has a staggering degree of barely controlled decentralisation and a no-holds-barred hybrid kind of capitalism, both of which would have the wax melting on Lenins mummied brow. The result is dynamic but deformed economic development in which, for example, cities have run up mountains of bad debt with nancial institutions ultimately controlled by the partystate. To call the allocation of capital in China sub-optimal would be beneath understatement. The nexus of money and politics may be at the heart of Americas systemic blockage, but so it is of Chinas. In the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe you see former Communist party leaders

who have become mega-rich practitioners of capitalism-in-one-family. In China, their counterparts have become mega-rich practitioners of capitalism-inone-family, but remained party leaders. A Bloomberg investigation recently estimated the total private wealth of incoming president Xis family at close to $1bn. A New York Times inquiry put that of outgoing premier Wen Jiabaos family at about $2.7bn. Between the two families they could have funded the entire US election campaign. In China, as anywhere else, a crisis can catalyse reform or revolution. Pray that it is reform. This increasingly urgent reform, if it happens, will not result in a western-style liberal democracy any time soon, if ever. But even some Communist party analysts acknowledge that, in Chinas own longterm interest, the changes will need to go in the direction of more rule of law, accountability, social security and ecologically sustainable development. Now heres the rub. We, in the rest of the world, have an existential interest in the success of both Americas and Chinas reforms. The bellicose edge to confrontations in the Asia-Pacic region between China and US allies such as Japan is deeply worrying at such an early stage of an emerging superpower rivalry. A recent Pew poll shows mutual distrust between the Chinese and US publics growing rapidly. Unhappy countries, unable to solve their own structural problems at home, are more likely to vent their anger abroad. We must want them both to succeed. Twitter: @fromtga
MATT KENYON

He won. Now what?

US round table The impact of a second victory for president Obama and a chastened Republican party

Michael Cohen Pressure for progress

On Tuesday night we saw the emergence of a new Democratic governing majority with the potential to serve as the foundation of presidential politics for many years. Quite simply, Democrats have once again become the nations presidential party. So what does this mean for actual governing? Obama might have delivered a stirring speech about the need for Americans to come together and work towards shared goals, but the new face of Democrats in Congress is more diverse and more left-leaning. This will have serious implications for his governing agenda. On issues like the environment and labour relations, Obama will be pushed to take more progressive positions. On foreign policy, liberals held their powder on the use of drones, the war in Afghanistan and other civil liberties-related issues. Will they continue to do so? Some in Congress probably will, but there will be even greater pressure from the activist community. And, with the president freed from the shackles of seeking reelection, they are likely to see progress. For four years, Obama hinted that he was, at heart, a progressive realist. Beginning in January, theres a reasonable possibility that guy might end up putting his stamp on foreign policy. Not only is the party getting more progressive, but so too, it seems, is the nation. Michael Cohen is author of Live from the Campaign Trail: The Greatest Presidential Campaign Speeches of the 20th Century

Gary Younge A more impressive win

Electing a black candidate on his promise, amid a massive economic crisis, is one thing. To re-elect him on his record, even as that crisis endures, is quite another. In more ways than one, his victory on Tuesday night was more impressive than in 2008 precisely because it was not more symbolic. Its dicult to think of a more vulnerable president facing re-election and pulling it o so decisively. Having redrawn the electoral map and reshaped the electorate in 2008, he managed to give a plausible account of his eorts over the past four years, even when they had fallen short. On a ight to Denver last week an Obama supporter explained how his view of the president had evolved: I thought he was a prophet. Now I realise hes just a king. Sooner or later, he will have to get used to the fact that his president is just a human being. Gary Younge is a Guardian columnist

higher turnout. Obama racked up huge margins among several sub-groups: single women went for him by a 36-point margin, Latinas by 51 points. Twenty women, a record number, are probably heading to the Senate. All but one are pro-choice Democrats who campaigned as well, as feminists. The Republican party would do well to heed the message and take stock of its unpopular assault on womens rights. Consider what might have been had Romney supported equal pay for women, instead of rhapsodising about binders full of women. Women earned this victory. And we intend to claim it. Nancy L Cohen is a historian and author

James Antle Romney failed Republicans

Mitt Romney may have faced the worst of both worlds: he tried to say little about social issues but Democrats attacked him for an anti-contraception war on women. The result may have been that social conservatives didnt feel any enthusiasm for him while social liberals viewed him as a threat to their way of life. The Republican party boasts a stable of governors who have skirted these landmines more skilfully than Romney ever has. Republicans will also look towards senators with Tea Party credentials. Just because Romney who had only won one election in his career could not thread this needle does not mean it cannot be threaded. James Antle is a contributing editor of the American Conservative

Nancy L Cohen Take note: women vote

A clear victor has emerged in the Republican war on women. Women. The 2012 election is a mandate for womens equality and reproductive rights. In a year when womens issues were hotly debated and Democrats touted their pro-women principles, women favoured Obama by 11 points. The president also beneted from an 11-point gender gap and womens

More on the US election

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Diary Hugh Muir

All change at Chris Graylings Ministry of Justice. Take compensation for crime victims. The ministry introduced a draft order in September to alter the criminal injuries compensation scheme. It would take away the right to compensation from those suering minor injuries, presently awarded between 1,000 and 2,000, and reduce other categories. The rst draft order sent to the delegated legislation committee took a battering. John Redwood, hardly a bleeding heart, complained it would cut back on payments to people who are vulnerable and have just been through a bad time in their lives for no good reason. Members expected substantial changes, but when the draft returned, the introduction of a hardship fund of about 500,000 was the only dierence. Still, the measure passed. What changed? The main change was the committee itself. Redwood, Angie Bray and Jonathan Evans were replaced by John Howell (private secretary to Voldemort Lansley), Jessica Lee, (PPS to Dominic Grieve) and Lee Scott (PPS to Chris Grayling). For the Lib Dems Tessa Munt, (PPS to Vince Cable) sat with the government. And the government got what it wanted; clawing back compo from victims of crime. Like magic, really. A week until the police commissioner elections that nobody much wanted and a whole new era of accountability that nobody really understands. Not much focus on Norfolk thus far, but a rich mix there has been made richer still with the candidature of the Tory James Athill. Who he? He left the army as a colonel last year, having led British and Gurkha units and commanded a training regiment. He also held diplomatic and operational positions in the Middle East, south-east Asia and, most recently, central Europe. Its the diplomatic stu in central Europe thats exciting interest. Fingers in quite a few pies, has the candidate, and though his website is exhaustive, one thing not immediately apparent there is his grand and curious title of UK territorial director for the CSOK, the Czech Middle Asian Chamber of Commerce. Whats that, asked a curious voter. Oh, its innocuous, said Athill. Its about British rms trading in new markets via the Czech Republic. Then why didnt you declare it on campaign literature? Well, its on my LinkedIn page, he said. And I did tell the Tories before they selected me. Might have been nice, in the new era of accountability, if he had mentioned it to the electorate. For he was the defence attache at the British embassy in Prague. And among the activities proclaimed by CSOK are industrial and defence undertakings in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Libya. Nice chap, apparently, but people watch James Bond, Tinker Tailor. In a vacuum they think all sorts of things. Many questions surround the death last week of Prince Ofosu, a 31-year-old Ghanaian, at the Harmondsworth immigration removal centre near Heathrow. There were protests outside this week amid reports that Ofosu had been forcibly restrained and was taken to the isolation cells the day before he died. The prisons and probation ombudsman has launched an investigation into the sixth death at the facility since 1989. The Geo group, which runs the centre, is the second largest for-prot prison operator in the US. This year it was the recipient of a UK Border Agency supplier award for making Harmondsworth a safe and secure place for detainees, sta and visitors. Not the least of the questions is whether theyll have to send the bauble back. An important, long-running employment tribunal case is under way. Academic Ronnie Fraser says the University and College Union is institutionally antisemitic. It strongly denies it is any such thing. The case has worldwide attention, and Fraser is supported by more than 30 witnesses, including the Booker prizewinning novelist Howard Jacobson. One star witness gave his longawaited evidence yesterday, though the timing was unfortunate. Still, the tribunal listened attentively to Denis MacShane. Suitably attentive types also made their way to the World Travel Market extravaganza at Londons Excel centre, not least for the debate on tourism and child protection. The sessions sponsors: the BBC. diary@guardian.co.uk Twitter: @hugh_muir

Martin Kettle Washington On the face of it nothing has changed. But the Hispanic vote may have saved Obama, a fact his opponents cannot ignore

The status quo election? No, more like a watershed

The Republicans must respond or risk withering away as the party of non-Hispanic men

o, after all those months of eort, all that money, all those air miles, all that coee what has America nally got to show for it as the dust settles from Election 2012? Barack Obama decisively re-elected as president. The Republicans still rmly in control of the House of Representatives. The Democrats likewise in the Senate. You spend $6bn and in Mitt Romneys case six years trying to change American politics, and what do you end up with? Yes, thats right: the status quo. The T-shirt is already on sale. What exactly is going on here in America? After all, the voters who re-elected Obama this week are the same voters who have pretty consistently given him low approval marks as president. And the Americans who gave the radical Republican right a second term in charge of Congress are the same Americans who say Congress is not in touch with the issues that matter to the country. The nation that has re-elected its leaders this week is the same nation that thinks its government is on the wrong path. What is it trying to say? Dont tell me that Americans dont do electoral volatility when they want to. Remember the convulsive shift between the rst Obama election in 2008 and the catastrophic shellacking he suered in the midterms in 2010: a Democratic triumph reversed by a Republican one. It was volatile America incarnate. Thats precisely why the run-in to the 2012 election was so unbearably tense, especially after Obama ued the rst TV debate. Which America would turn up at the ballot box on Tuesday? The liberal optimists of 2008, or the conservative pessimists of 2010? In the end a surprise result they both did. Professional politicians can explain this away. They will often tell you that in elections, by some almost mystical process they are at a loss to explain logically, the voters end up getting the result they actually want. In this way of looking at things, American voters this week didnt want spending cuts or higher taxes so they voted for a progressive leader and a scally conservative Congress, hoping that the two will

work together to produce moderate solutions. Good luck with that. Yet the dicult fact remains. Since no one is denying that times are hard for Americans until this week, no president has ever been re-elected with unemployment anything like as high as it is in America today why was this not what the political pros call a change election? And how come it has ended up as one of the most immobile status quo election results in many years, rewarding left and right alike? In most other developed countries of the west, incumbents have been dumped out of oce, whether they are leftwing spenders or rightwing austerity freaks. But not in America. Here, incumbency still helps. Its easy to say that American politics is simply dierent from ours. In some ways, that is true. But not because Americas very existence is proof of Gods higher purpose for the republic, as many Americans not just Romney and his Mormons still believe. If you want one large fact about the US election that marks American exceptionalism, 2012 style, it is the fact that women consistently remain the bulwark of the party of the left, while men vote to the right. Look at the 12-point lead women delivered for Obama this week and the reverses for fanatical antiabortion Republican senate candidates in Indiana and Missouri as well. My own rough and ready explanation for the apparent contradictions of the 2012 results is this: with the economy still fragile and scarcity setting the agenda, the voters balked both at a party of big government and at a party advocating no government at all. The momentum that can penalise incumbents in hard and volatile times was neutralised by a set of demographic shifts that are pragmatically shaping the new American political landscape. Thus although 2012 appears to be a status quo outcome, it does not mean American voters are digging in for yet another round of interminable trench warfare between blue and red America. In fact, theres a lot moving below the surface, mostly in the Democrats favour. And no part of this is more important for the future than the growth of the Hispanic vote. Most people understand that the rise of the USs Hispanic population, both in

absolute numbers and as a share of the population, will reshape 21st century America. But thats still 40 years down the track, isnt it? No, it is already happening in US politics. Obamas wins in New Mexico and Colorado, and the Democrats untouchability in California, owe much to Hispanics. But Hispanic voters may have saved Obama this week in places like Virginia and Florida, too. And it wont be many years before Hispanic voters shape the outcomes in currently Republican states like Arizona, Georgia and, biggest prize of all, Texas. Take the result this week in Osceola county in the pivotal state of Florida. Its a part of Florida you may know, if you have ever been to Disney World or own into Orlando. Eight years ago, George Bush took it by 5,000 votes. This time, Obama defeated Romney there by 17,000. That switch reects the large inux of non-Cuban Hispanic voters into Osceola in recent years. And since Hispanic voters were one of the few groups that moved even more emphatically into the Obama camp this week than in 2008 with 75% support nationwide compared with 67% in 2008 their impact may have been decisive. f that is true in the hard times of 2012, think what a dierence that demographic shift will have on the electoral college over the next 20 years. If nothing else changes it simply means the writing is on the wall for Republican chances of winning the White House. Not for nothing has Obama said that immigration reform, a crucial issue for Hispanic Americans, is on his second term agenda. Not for nothing did he give a primetime convention slot to the mayor of San Antonio, Julian Castro. Republicans will have to respond or risk withering away. Either they must reach out better to Hispanics (as Bush, who won 40% support among this group, did), or they will circle the wagons and become, more than ever, the party of white non-Hispanic men. It is a huge call for Romneys defeated party to make. Call this a status quo election if you want. From here, it looks more like a watershed. Who knows, in 15 years time, the US may even have a President Castro in the White House. martin.kettle@guardian.co.uk

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

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Barack Obamas second term

Change he can believe in

Put to one side for a moment who won the most polarised and bitterly contested presidential election of modern times. Think about what won. Healthcare reform won, not only because Barack Obamas victory ensured that the law cannot be repealed in its entirety, but symbolically too on the ballot paper in Florida. The amendment banning federal mandates for obtaining health insurance would have had no practical eect after the supreme court upheld federal law, but the antis were denied even the opportunity of sending a political signal. Key programmes like Medicare and Medicaid, whose budgets would have been slashed, had a good election night too. More voters were convinced that the rich had to pay more taxes than were not. Social liberalism notched up victories from Maine and Maryland becoming the first states to approve same-sex marriage, to Wisconsin, where Tammy Baldwin was elected as the rst openly gay member of Senate. Pro-choice campaigners saw the political fortunes of their nemeses Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock implode. Public support for the death penalty was, according to some, on the wane. The electorate may be just as polarised, but after a result like this it is harder to argue that America is as gridlocked as the dysfunction in Washington suggests. Something has changed. The electorate is dynamic, vibrant and capable of embracing new ideas. It has only just started, but the change that Mr Obama heralded before his rst term as president may nally be on its way. panic vote. Four years later, John McCain got 31%. On Wednesday, Romney got just 27%. The party that failed to see this is belatedly feeling the consequences of being too old, too white, and too male. The Republican caucus returned to the House of Representatives could make the same mistake of thinking that they had a good election and that little for them has changed. They still control the house, the Democrats the Senate and the White House. On the surface government remains gridlocked. But any of a large eld of next-generation leaders pondering their chances for 2016, such as the senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, the man to whom Republicans might turn to broaden the demographic appeal of the party, will also be counting the cost of continued Washington gridlock, especially if it is on immigration reform. It will be interesting to see just how hard and how long the house speaker, John Boehner, maintains that Mr Obama lacks a mandate to break the cold war on taxes. Nice though they are to hear, the mood today is very dierent from 2008 and the test of his new-found executive purpose will come soon. He has got just over seven weeks before Americans will be hit with a combination of massive spending cuts and tax hikes. Unless Congress acts, the economy will go over this fiscal cli ; and over the next weeks the president can expect to hear incessant demands to broker a deal with Republicans. The event is real enough. Should it happen, a radical downgrade by the rating agencies, a US recession, and a resultant triple-dip recession in the UK could all ensue. But the cli itself is more of a slope than a sheer drop. Over a full year, the measures will surely be devastating, but not for a month or two. Mr Obama should tough it out and present a tax cut that restores Bush-era tax rates for all but the richest 2%, then dare the GOP to vote against a tax cut for the 98%. Mr Obama needs to set out his agenda: on taxes, immigration reform and climate change. The GOP should be oered a bipartisan hand, but they should be left in no doubt what will happen if they keep their hands in their pockets. This may be the same Barack Obama but he is surely a steelier president. To succeed, he must stamp his authority on his agenda. He has earned his victory. He now needs to seal it.

Coalition of the ascendant

And whose voices prevailed? They have been variously called the coalition of the ascendant and New America. These groups are demographically on the march: voters below the age of 44, minorities, college-educated women voters. For Mitt Romney to have used the immigration debate as a way of feeding red meat to the party faithful, and to have alienated so many Latinos as a result, could have been a costlier decision in swing states than suggesting that Detroit should go bankrupt. While the Republicans seemed to eject from their big tent the very people they needed to win the election, the Democrats were concentrating Karl Rove-like in targeting auto workers and each of these demographics. Perhaps it is no accident that Mr Roves evening as a television pundit ended in a bust-up with Fox News, who rightly called Ohio for Mr Obama. The Democratic campaign realised what the self-obsessed GOP could not: the coalition of the ascendant represents a structural change. In 2004, George W Bush won 44% of the His-

A steelier president
To remind America that he still considers himself on a mission, that his mission is ambitious, and that he remains, after all the setbacks and disappointments of his rst term, the same man, Mr Obama consciously reserved the best words of the campaign for his victory speech.

Nadine Dorries

Out of the jungle, and into ...

MPs can more or less write their own job description, so from Edmund Burke to Nadine Dorries, the appropriate weight to give to constituents, Westminster, public argument and personal judgment has mostly been a subjective choice, a calibration between the costs of conviction and the power of convention. But having written it, they have to defend it. The judgment of Ms Dorries, the controversial Tory MP for Mid Bedfordshire, that taking part in Im a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here is appropriate is denitely bold, probably not in a good way. It has produced a level of abuse that would shatter a more fragile ego. Shes accused of disgracing an MPs role and betraying other women MPs to boot. The communities secretary, Eric Pickles, backed by the Daily Mail, is self-appointed leader of a campaign to keep her in the jungle for as long as possible. Ms Dorries, whose unblushing capacity for attracting attention has a certain appeal in this grey and cautious era, claims shes owed lots of time o and she wants to use the chance to talk to the millions of viewers about her long campaign to reduce the upper age limit for legal abortion, while demonstrating to voters that her reputation as the to s scourge is a genuine product of authentic northern working-class roots. It was not a promising project, even before Ms Dorries had the Tory whip withdrawn, but it is inescapably the case that democratic engagement is viewed as something for geeks with a power complex. Something has to be done, and generations of theorists and politicians have failed to nd out what. Its 50 years since Harold Macmillan took his white fur hat to Moscow, and more than 40 since Harold Wilson gave the Beatles MBEs and later wangled an invitation onto Morecambe and Wises TV show, yet the pollsters continue to report an ever more yawning gap between voters and their representatives. The harder they try to look like us, the less we like it, and the faster the political gene pool shrinks. Ms Dorries, who once attacked Louise Mensch for daring to raise the school run, belongs to the school of feminism favoured by her heroine Margaret Thatcher, so she might not acknowledge the streak of misogyny underlying the noisy disapproval (she should watch the video of David Cameron calling her frustrated and think again). The producers want Ms Dorries because shes good copy. But having endured the snakes and creepers of parliament for so long, it is just possible that she may get out of the real jungle alive.

Comment & Debate

The debate about wealth must start with morals

Zoe Williams We often end up arguing for equality on the basis of outcomes, rather than principle. But decent pay is a question of fairness

hortly before the 1833 Factory Act, a parliamentary select committee summoned a man called Samuel Coulson to describe the working conditions of his children during the mills particularly busy weeks. They went to bed at 11pm then had to be woken at 2am, to go back to work. Were the children excessively fatigued by this labour? asked Michael Sadler, the 19th centurys equivalent of MP Tom Watson. Many times, Coulson replied. We have cried often when we have given them the little victualling we had to give them; we had to shake them, and they have fallen to sleep with the victuals in their mouths many a time. The bill protecting children was passed pretty easily, partly because of the strength of this evidence and partly because it wasnt very radical (merely restricting nine to 13-year-olds to a 10-hour day). But there were plenty of people the Iain Duncan Smiths of yore arguing that it was the parents who were monsters, and not the employers. Poor people forced their children to work simply because they didnt care very much about them. And a signicant minority (I suppose these would be your George Osbornes) argued that the market should decide. The worker didnt need the state, he would be protected by the value of his own labour. Even if he was nine. Of the many lessons from history the obvious ones are, rstly, that the market will decide but always, for some queer reason, in favour of the person whos already winning. And secondly, parliament is not as useful for workers as unionisation: it is quite good at making a

case where a child is involved, less good at making the case for the decent treatment of adults; and this was as true of the child poverty rhetoric in the last two decades as it was in the 1830s. What strikes me most, though, is this question of wages. Children were only working because the wages of the parents werent enough to feed the family. And yet youd have to go as far left as Marx before youd nd anybody insisting this isnt going to work, saying, wages have to reect our relative input into what weve produced; they cannot be a lottery. And still, nearly 200 years later, the same squeamishness obtains. Across the political spectrum, from Miliband to Johnson, politicians will self-identify as nice people, on the side of the little guy, by calling for a living wage. But the very terminology shows us the underpinning principle one of pragmatism and reason, that if people arent paid enough to live on, either the government has to step in with in-work benets or people wont work at all. What happened to a wage that was simply fair? Its been part of the political rubric in the past a fair days work for a fair days pay but its slipped through Westminsters ngers so that, like Victorians, unless they can picture a child crying, they cant really gure out what their place is, between the employer and the employee, or if they have a place at all. Slavery presents an interesting contrast. As tortuous as the route was to ending it, once society had coalesced around this idea that nobody could belong to anybody else, the matter was settled. This doesnt mean it never happens in fact cases come up surprisingly often but at least we dont have to have the argument again about

whether or not its wrong. There was a single, simple moral precept at the core of it that all people are born free and once that was established, people stopped saying whats this going to do for business?, and but all the slave owners will just move to Switzerland!. They simply adjusted to a new reality. The equivalent precept, just as simple, is that all people are born equal. Taken to any logical conclusion, this would make it impossible for one persons wages to be 185 times anothers (this is the current, depressing ratio between a FTSE 100 chief executive and average earnings, according to the One Societys halfterm report on inequality under the coalition: a precis if youre busy it has increased). It would make it impossible for gross domestic product to grow while the poorest third of households saw their incomes stagnate (this has happened in the United States since the 1970s; in the UK, the trickle-down stopped working in 2003). Its puzzling to me how often we end

This projected squeeze in living standards makes grim reading: if inequality is left unchecked, the whole bottom 50% of households will be poorer by 2020

up arguing for equality on the basis of outcomes because unequal societies inherently have more problems rather than principle: that if we were born equal, one person fetching up in adulthood worth 185 times what everybody else is worth makes no sense. And yet it doesnt puzzle me that much. Last week saw the publication of the Resolution Foundations report on the squeeze on living standards, which makes very grim reading incidentally, projecting that if inequality is left unchecked, the whole bottom 50% of households will be poorer by 2020. Gavin Kelly, now the foundations chief executive, was deputy chief of sta in Downing Street during (some of) the Labour years. He said (Im paraphrasing) he remembered loads of meetings about tax credits, about child poverty, about benets, about childcare allowances; he doesnt remember going to a single meeting about wages. Nobody was talking about them. Beyond the minimum wage, it just wasnt relevant. Its interesting that, despite fervent opposition to the national minimum wage, Tories are now broadly in favour of it, and the one thing this government has done to make people at the bottom fractionally less poor is to reduce the age threshold for the minimum wage from 22 to 21. But a wage oor alone isnt enough. It wouldnt be enough even if there werent employers who dodged it. A living wage might be a start, but that isnt enough either. We will not tackle inequality until we start talking about wages that are fair. We cannot make any dent on what is fundamentally a moral issue unless were prepared to talk about morals. Twitter: @zoesqwilliams

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

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Support for young people on journey to adulthood

I am moved to write to you on a personal note, having read Zoe Williams article (Who prots from being in care? Its not the children, 1 November). The plight of many children in care, and their heartless treatment in the name of prot, makes me despair and appreciate how lucky I was back in the 50s. In 1950 the NSPCC placed me (aged seven) and my sisters (eight and 10) in the National Childrens Home (now Action for Children). We became part of a family group at the Alverstoke branch, near Gosport. There were approximately 150 children divided into small groups, each with a housemother. We were consistently loved, encouraged and supported. Our needs and aptitudes were recognised and nurtured. I was 18 when I left Alverstoke in 1961 to study at Brighton Teacher Training College. However, I returned home at weekends and in holidays. The NCH was indeed my home. I was awarded the maximum grant for my training. Even so, the NCH made a further contribution to help me over the three years. Other children did leave at the age of 16. It was NCH policy to ensure leavers found employment or college courses and digs where necessary to support them as they did for me. If they were not coping in their new life, the NCH brought them back in to the home until they were ready to be independent. This was common practice. I am now retired. I have spent my working life as a teacher of French and German, becoming, for the nal 15 years, a PGCE tutor for modern languages. My housemother is now 94, and is herself being cared for in a residential home. My middle sister visits her each week. Many of her NCH family visit and keep in touch. It was so important to feel loved and to be safe and secure. The National Childrens Home achieved that all those years ago, and I am very grateful. There must be many good stories nowadays of lasting loving care of children in trouble. It would be good to investigate these to counterbalance the many articles we read of abuse and callousness. Jenifer Alison Lowgill, Cumbria Although Zoe Williams article colludes with the simplistic view of the care system as failing most young people whereas research evidence shows some young people move on very successfully from care, others do well over a longer period of time, and a third group struggle greatly she is right that there needs to be a radical rethinking of the funding and placement policies. The rst priority should be to provide nancial support to prevent young people coming into care where they can safely remain with their parents. Second, far more use should be made of supporting kinship care by other relatives and friends, thus maintaining community links. This form of care is only used in England for about one in eight of lookedafter young people compared with, for example, eight out of 10 young people in Spain. Third, we should fund, on a notfor-prot basis, local high-quality foster and residential care, each with a clearly identied purpose, including supporting young people from care to adulthood not just at the time of leaving care. We know from research what works in successfully supporting young people on their journey to adulthood: stability and continuity; a positive experience of education; responding to health and emotional needs; preparation; and gradual, extended and supported transitions well into adulthood. In other words, what most parents oer their young people. Why do local authorities nd it so dicult to provide this? Professor Mike Stein Social Policy Research Unit, University of York Zoe Williams highlights the shocking situation where the most vulnerable children in society fail to thrive and achieve despite the eye-watering sums paid to private companies for their care. The solution seems obvious: nonstate-sector schools should earn their charitable status by taking responsibility for the care and education of caredfor children. This would provide a real opportunity to change the current shamefully impoverished life chances for cared-for children. In these times of austerity, policymakers should also note the savings to be made (200,000300,000 per year for residential care compared to 30,000 at Eton). Cynics would point to a lack of political will and there would certainly be challenges in ensuring the children were carefully nurtured and supported, but this one really is a no-brainer. Katherine Mason Southampton Adopted children can read headlines too (I wanted to kill her, G2, 1 November). Its certainly true that adopting already distressed children is dicult, and that adoptive parents may not be given the information and support they need. But melodrama doesnt help anyone. Children who have been rejected for whatever reason are likely to feel intensely that its their fault; describing them in a big yellow subheading as a ticking timebomb will do nothing to restore their self-esteem. Ruth Valentine London Michael Goves instruction that excessive emphasis on ethnic matching requirements must not stop black youngsters being placed with loving white parents (Report, 6 November) at long last gives eect to a policy Paul Boateng, then health minister, tried to introduce 14 years ago, only to be thwarted by the social services establishment. As a result, in 2010 only 80 of the 3,050 children adopted were black, leaving 90% of black children in the care system without a chance of nding a new permanent placement. The assumption that white people cannot be good and loving parents for a black child is both racist and false look no further than President Barack Obama, who was very happily and successfully brought up by a white couple. Maritz Vandenberg London More on fostering, adoption and young people in care at gu.com/letters

Corrections and clarications

An article describing how the white clis of Dover had inspired a poem by the poet laureate, Carol Ann Duy, said she had referenced literary antecedents such as the Fool in Shakespeares King Lear, who describes the dreadful trade of the samphire pickers clinging to the cli face. It is not the Fool but Edgar, describing the scene to his father, the blind and poignantly unknowing Gloucester, who speaks of the dreadful trade of the samphire gatherers in Shakespeares King Lear (Laureates tribute to coasts glittering breastplate, 7 November, page 13). Our obituary for the American composer Elliott Carter incorrectly referred to A Symphony of Three Orchestras as A Symphony in Three Movements. It also misnamed Carters 2007 work Sound Fields as Soundings (7 November, page 45). A review of the group Mavrikas eponymous album was listed with four stars rather than three as the reviewer intended (Mavrika, 2 November, page 28, G2). Further corrections and clarications on guardian.co.uk include: Disney updates paper purchasing policy to protect Indonesian rainforest, 11 October. Contacts for Guardian departments and sta can be found at gu.com/help/ contact-us. To contact the readers editors oce, which looks at queries about accuracy and standards, email reader@guardian.co.uk including article details and web link; write to The readers editor, Kings Place, 90 York Way, London N1 9GU; or phone +44 (0)20 3353 4736 between 10am and 1pm UK time Monday to Friday excluding public holidays. The Guardians policy is to correct signicant errors as soon as possible. The editorial code of the Guardian incorporates the editors code overseen by the Press Complaints Commission: see pcc.org.uk

There must be many good stories nowadays of lasting loving care of children in trouble
Jenifer Alison

Jungle moonlight
I was surprised to see Naomi Klein writing that climate change has long been thought of as a great leveller, aecting equally both rich and poor (After the storm, G2, 7 November). In fact, scientists and environmentalists have, for a long time, believed that the impacts of climate change will be greatest on the poor. This is the main reason why developing countries are expected to be most vulnerable. It also means that Ms Kleins main contention, that the rich can buy their way out of exposure to storm damage in the US, has plenty of support from elsewhere. Professor Martin Parry Grantham Institute, Imperial College London Theresa May apparently thinks that as Nadine Dorries is still drawing a parliamentary salary during her sojourn in the jungle, her place is in the House of Commons (Report, 7 November). Can I therefore take it that the large number of Tory MPs currently making substantial sums from directorships, consultancies, journalism and other lucrative moonlighting activities will likewise have the party whip withdrawn? Chris Mitton Sutton Coldeld, West Midlands Surely Dorries should be appearing on Who Do You Think You Are? Since when have MPs been celebrities? Jean Scott Penrith, Cumbria An article on a similar subject (Take a tip from the worlds oldest man live lazy, live long, 6 November) appeared some time ago in your esteemed organ as a review of a book by Peter J Conradi, Going Buddhist. The reviews caption Dont just do something, sit there has a prominent position on my desk next to the armchair. I follow its advice conscientiously. It has been very eective so far. Tony Cheney Ipswich, Suolk My husband has always said he wants Is That All There Is?, by Peggy Lee, as his farewell music (Letters, 7 November). Ann Gordon Romford, Essex Im looking forward to an angry letter from the famously hard-of-hearing David Hockney about the imminent loss of up to 90% of Britains ashtrays. Mike Hine Kingston upon Thames, Surrey

Cut-price therapy and the trauma underlying mental ill health

A right to therapy on the NHS (The nasty babble which stigmatises depression, 3 November)? Well, it all depends what you mean by therapy. There is a serious risk of Labour in government conrming the current situation wherein good standard psychotherapy and counselling is only available to those who can aord it an injustice that is getting worse. True, the growth in the number of psychotherapists, and increased realism on their part, means that private psychotherapy is not as expensive as it once was. But for a majority of people there is no other place to go for their talking cures than the NHS. And what is happening there is scandalous. Psychotherapy services are being closed or rationalised across the country, over the impotent protests of the various professional organisations. Decades of skill and commitment are being junked, and against patients wishes. All of it is justied because a cut-price, watered-down form of therapy is available on the seductively entitled Improving Access to Psychological Therapies scheme. The science of this project (the so-called Nice guidelines) is dubious, ignoring thousands of studies showing how helpful real psychotherapy can be. The intent is to get people to conform to societys expectations and return to work, or come o benets. What many Guardian readers understand as psychotherapy whether they approve of it or not is unavailable for those who want it. Andrew Samuels Professor of analytical psychology, University of Essex Clare Enders rightly points out that child abuse frequently underlies adult mental health problems, substance abuse and criminal behaviour (Breaking the silence, 3 November). She could have put it more strongly: recent research establishes beyond reasonable doubt that trauma is a primary causal factor across the whole range of mental health presentations, including those which are labelled psychosis, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. In fact it is increasingly clear that these conditions are best understood as severe trauma reactions, not illnesses with biological origins. Our psychiatric hospitals are full to the brim with people whose lives have been devastated by sexual, physical and emotional abuse. If any good comes out of the Savile scandal, it will be to raise awareness of the role that psychiatry plays in hiding away and silencing the voices of trauma victims, so that the rest of us need not face up to its appalling legacy. Dr Lucy Johnstone Consultant clinical psychologist, Cwm Taf health board, south Wales There is an immediate dierence that readers moved by your article about postnatal depression (When baby brings the blues, 3 November) may make. I work as a volunteer mum for the charity Home-Start, which attempts to address what your piece describes as one of the strongest links to postnatal depression social isolation. Volunteers home visit once a week, as a wise and loving friend, oering practical and emotional support. They are privileged to see rst-hand the benets of this service in mitigating the serious consequences of social isolation. Alas, spending cuts are hitting HomeStart too. For readers to remember this charity, especially at Christmas, would be wonderful (www.home-start.org.uk). Jayne Venables York

Country diary

Fineshade Woods, Northampton

It takes 20 paces for me to circumnavigate the span of her roots; she must be 400 years old. Her core is hollow long ago she transcended a solid wooden existence. Her trunk is an expanded bole; broad ribbons of thick bark, woven into a vast 15ft high vase. Not solid, but sturdy and lithe. Her rough, green bark smoothens out around the rims of her many gaping apertures. I clamber in, through a ssure in her side, and stand in her protected interior; her fallen, pinnate leaves form a soft bed under my feet. Ash trees do not dominate landscapes as the bold oaks or bristly pines do, or as the dominant elms once did. The ash has a lighter countenance, she is more subtle, but she is everywhere. If the oak is the ent Anglo-Saxon for giant perhaps the ash is the ent-wife. The ash lacks a routine English or Scots prex; she is the Norse world tree, her roots and branches threading together the dierent planes of existence. For centuries this enigmatic entity has stood on the edge of the Fineshade Woods, through stark winters, droughts and terrible storms. She has been a home to myriad animals. My exploration reveals mammal excavations, and on the internally naked wood grow tiny, pale mushrooms, and spiders sit in pocks and crevices. Her fresh leaves have been fodder for generations of moths, mites and bugs, and in their deciduous state sustenance to earthworms, woodlice and millipedes. Perhaps people once tapped her sweet sugary sap or gathered her leaves to concoct a pain-relieving brew. Although ash avoids waterlogged soil, todays downpour is no problem for her earth-drying root network. But, a modern phenomenon has struck the ash: a fungus that should be a companion has become a killer. With 90% of ash trees in Denmark already dead, what is her place in our future? Matt Shardlow

BNP membership and employment rights

We disagree with the European court of human rights ruling that the dismissal of BNP councillor Arthur Redfearn was a breach of his human rights (Bus driver sacked for being in BNP wins case, 7 November). Redfearn was employed by Serco, a Bradford council contractor, and his job involved driving Asian adults and children with disabilities. The BNP is known to be a fascist and racist organisation, with leading members calling for an all-white Britain. BNP leader Nick Grin has a conviction for inciting racial hatred after describing the Holocaust as a hoax. Therefore members of such an organisation do present a threat to Asian and disabled people, and others targeted by fascism. Redfearn specically presented a threat to Asian and disabled passengers. British local councils, paid for by the tax payer, have to adhere to race relations legislation. This should not be undermined by the ECHR. Membership of the BNP should be viewed in the same way as membership of the Nazi party. Weyman Bennett and Sabby Dhalu Joint secretaries, Unite Against Fascism Your report leaves perhaps the most important nding of the European court of human rights to the nal two sentences that the court criticised the fact that the bus driver could not pursue a claim of unfair dismissal because he had not worked for the employer for long enough. Setting aside the issue of BNP membership and/or activity, this case highlights the appalling lack of basic, fundamental rights workers in the UK have. In this case the employee would have had to wait 12 months before having the right to claim unfair dismissal. Thanks to this vicious government it is now 24 months. Why should I enter amicably into a contract with an employer and not be able to seek redress if that employer unfairly or wrongly breaks that contact? Unfair dismissal is exactly that it is unfair and should be remedied and punished from day one, never mind even 12 months. Daniel Maguire Newcastle upon Tyne

Boss of the USA

Can Bruce do it again for Obama? asked Dorian Lynskey (G2, 16 October). Apparently, yes he can. This was not just about celebrity endorsement; Springsteens speech in Wisconsin on Monday was extraordinarily lucid political oratory. Springsteen spoke about the distance between the American dream and American reality, and the importance of using the vote as the one undeniable way we get to determine the distance in that equation [our job] is to keep that hope alive, to combat cynicism and apathy, and to believe in our power to change our lives and the world we live in. Springsteen for president in 2016? Melanie Henwood Towcester, Northamptonshire One might wish for more radical policies but Obamas victory will at least safeguard one important advance of his rst term in oce. Namely the White House micro-brewery that he has started. When will No 10 follow example? Keith Flett London

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012 Obituaries desk Email: obituaries@guardian.co.uk other.lives@guardian.co.uk Twitter: @guardianobits

Obituaries

Clive Dunn

Letters
Martin Kettle writes: Sir Stuart Bell (obituary, 15 October) had a very forgiving nature. During the Labour partys civil wars of the 1980s, when I worked on the Sunday Times, I phoned him at home one Saturday morning. We talked for half an hour about the latest plots in which he was then an active player. The story he gave me led the paper the following day. The following week I bumped into him at Westminster and thanked him for giving me a splash. A splash! he replied, You gave me a flood. It turned out that Stuart had been running a bath when I called, had forgotten to turn off the taps and had returned upstairs to discover his bathroom under water. Extensive rebuilding of the Bell home followed. He often laughed about it in later years. Mind you, he never gave me another exclusive. Tom Clark writes: Most conversations with Malcolm Wicks (obituary, 1 October) were warm and jovial, but as soon as they turned serious it never took long for names such as William Beveridge and Richard Titmuss to crop up. Wicks had dedicated two decades to the study of social policy, and applied the insights of his research when he landed as a minister at the Department for Work and Pensions. I met him there after I was appointed an adviser in 2002. He played a significant part in two underappreciated triumphs of the Labour government. First, there was the establishment of the Pension Protection Fund, a financial safety net that ended the scandal of workers losing their pensions when companies went bust; and second, the smooth introduction of pension credit, an overdue top-up for the millions of people with small savings, and the only recent big overhaul of social security that has not produced administrative chaos.

Dunn with John Laurie as Private Frazer in Dads Army. Playing old men remained his forte Photograph: Michael Fresco/Rex

Actor best known as Corporal Jones in the classic BBC comedy series Dads Army

ad it not been for his short stature and elflike face, the actor Clive Dunn, who has died aged 92, would have liked to play juvenile lead parts. But his loss was the audiences especially the television audiences gain. Though he was master of all sorts of old-man parts, he will be remembered with most affection as Lance Corporal Jones in the BBC television send-up of life in the wartime Home Guard, Dads Army (1968-77). His dithery butcher, slipping a few favoured lady customers some choice cuts from under the counter and then, in his spare time, trying his ineffectual best to keep order for the officious Captain Mainwaring, became such a popular figure that his catchphrase, Dont panic!, delivered in the agitated tones of a running chicken hanging on with difficulty to the last shreds of its dignity, was repeated with guffaws in homes throughout the land. The air of good nature with which he imbued the role removed any offence from some of Joness other catchphrases, such as his constantly reiterated explanation, derived possibly

from service in Africa, of why the enemy disliked the bayonet: They dont like it up em, sir! When in the late 1970s, British sausage manufacturers wanted their first competition, staged at Alexandra Palace, north London, to be opened by someone who suggested both the spirit of Britain and the no-nonsense appeal of the sausage, their choice was Dunn. He also toured for the Egg Marketing Board. For broad comedy, he was a natural. His father and grandfather had been comics and wanted him to follow the same route, but the young Clive had other ideas. Born in Brixton, south London, and educated at Sevenoaks school, Kent, he set his heart on becoming a film cameraman, something which appealed to his visual imagination he later became an accomplished amateur painter and his sense of security. In the event, after the Italia Conti acting school, he lined up a job as a teaboy and general dogsbody with British Movietone News just before that company went out of business. His chosen course no longer seemed quite so secure. At the Italia Conti he had drifted towards comedy when he was sent up the road to play a dragon on a high wire and a frog at the Holborn Empire. Richard Todd, later to become a cinema heart-throb, was in the same acting class. They both appeared before the then queen, the eventual Queen Mother, in a school ballet. This also signalled that Dunns future might lie in making people laugh. Partnering an

especially well-built girl and trying to pick her up, he slipped and dropped her. Despite or perhaps because of this, Dunn was quickly snapped up by talent scouts. He had walk-on parts in Goodbye Mr Chips (1939) and, with Will Hay, in Boys Will Be Boys (1935). When he was still only 17, he toured with British cinemas bad girl, Jean Kent, in a revue called Everybody Cheer. Smitten by her charms, he wrote a song for her, which she sang in Gateshead without being getting booed and in Luton, where she was not so lucky. The infatuation did not prevail, either. As the patriotic if uncertain lance corporal might well have done, Dunn made several attempts to enlist when the second world war broke out. He eventually joined the 4th Hussars, was captured in Yugoslavia and spent four years as a prisoner of war, held in a room above a barbers shop in Vienna and allowed out at night to do dirty jobs that no one else wanted. It gave him an eye for the oddities of military life. The television series Bootsie and Snudge (1960-63) first earned him fame as an old-man impersonator. He played Old Johnson, the faithful waiter struggling to preserve order and decorum among those ministering to the gentlemen of the Imperial Club. After the success of this show and Dads Army, Dunn often sank from public view, though he continued to work in clubs, doing a song and dance routine he was a trained dancer and ascribed his bandy legs, two of his assets as a comic, to doing too much athletics at school. Playing elderly men remained his

forte. He even made a recording of his song Grandad, which sold 690,000 copies and was in the charts for 28 weeks in 1970-71, three of them at No 1. Using his oldie reputation, Dunn visited many pensioners clubs and homes to cheer up the occupants, and once spoke at Trafalgar Square in favour of a campaign for better pensions. However, he was immensely pleased to be chosen, for a change, to play Frosch, the slurred and tipsy but not necessarily aged jailer in a 1978 English National Opera production of Johann Strausss opera Die Fledermaus. This, he insisted wryly, was at least one step up from his only other experience of being in opera, a quarter of a century previously in a BBC radio performance of a modern work in which he played someone unable to hear or speak, uttering only grunts and groans synchronised with the dissonant music. Dunn was appointed OBE in 1975, the year he appeared in a Dads Army sketch at a Royal Variety Performance. A television series took up his Grandad character (1979-84), and he bowed out of the medium as Verges in Much Ado About Nothing (1984). Dunn married twice. His first marriage, to the model Patricia Kenyon, ended in divorce after seven years. He married the Royal Shakespeare Company actor Priscilla Morgan in 1959. She survives him, as do their daughters, Polly and Jessica. Dennis Barker Clive Robert Benjamin Dunn, actor, born 9 January 1920; died 6 November 2012

Birthdays
Rupert Allason, author, 61; Joe Cole, footballer, 31; Dame Laura Cox, high court judge, 61; Alan Curbishley, football manager, 55; Richard Curtis, screenwriter and director, 56; Jane Danson, actor, 34; Liz Dawn, actor, 73; Alain Delon, actor, 77; Ken Dodd, comedian, 85; Elizabeth Gale, opera singer, 64; Nerys Hughes, actor, 71; Kazuo Ishiguro, author, 58; Rickie Lee Jones, singer, 58; Brett Lee, cricketer, 36; Paul McKenna, hypnotist, 49; The Most Rev Vincent Nichols, Roman Catholic archbishop of Westminster, 67; Tadaaki Otaka, conductor, 65; Rifat Ozbek, fashion designer, 59; Martin Peters, footballer, 69; Bonnie Raitt, singer, 63; Gordon Ramsay, chef, 46; Jamie Roberts, rugby player, 26; Richard Stoker, composer and actor, 74; Paul Vallely, writer and broadcaster, 61; Ana Vidovic, classical guitarist, 32.

Announcements

Other lives
Donal Cruise OBrien
It cannot always have been easy to be the son of a celebrity as flamboyantly controversial as the writer and politician Conor Cruise OBrien, but his son Donal, who has died aged 71, handled it with aplomb. He delighted in telling a story about being marooned on a grounded plane in Dublin when, falling into conversation with his neighbour, they exchanged names. At the sound of the famous surname, the mans face changed, and Donal braced himself for an onslaught on his fathers latest dmarche. But the man was looking at him with a new respect. He was in fact an obsessive genealogist, and told him reverently: If you had your rights, you would be the Earl of Thomond. Donal did not succeed to the longdefunct earldom but became an interdisciplinary scholar of immense distinction whose work on the Mouride brotherhood of Senegal brought together history, political science and sociology in books such as The Mourides of Senegal (1971), Saints and Politicians (1975), Charisma and Brotherhood in African Islam (1988, with Christian Coulon) and Symbolic Confrontations: Muslims Imagining the State in Africa (2003). He was born in Dublin and left Ireland young, reading history at Peterhouse, Cambridge, before a doctorate in political science at Berkeley, California, and research in France and Africa. In his 39 years at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, he was a much-loved teacher and supervisor as well as a respected professor. Donals international background conferred an ability to think his way into other cultures while maintaining an analytical distance. He also learned to cast a cold eye on political passions (and gave his father some muchneeded advice on the subject). Donals work, with Julia Strauss, on politics as theatre (Staging Politics, 2006) may reflect this. His independence of mind enabled him to survive, and benefit from, intellectual mentors as diverse as Maurice Cowling, Ernest Gellner, Michael Crowder and Roland Oliver. Donal Cruise OBriens international background helped him to think his way into other cultures It also enabled him to confront multiple sclerosis, which first struck him in 1969, without a shred of self-pity. He had the indomitable support of his wife, Rita. Together they faced the challenges of his progressive disability with a determination never to compromise on the necessities of the good life. Whether in London, Dorset, California, France or Spain, they brought with them the best of conversation, food, wine, music and affection. Donal bore the recent rapid downturn in his physical condition with fortitude. In his final months, he finished writing a vivid memoir of his life. During this last illness, asked how he felt, he replied: Lucky. He is survived by Rita, their daughter, Sarah, and two grandchildren, Lily and Joe. Roy Foster

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

39

Swann ies home from India as daughter falls ill

Cricket, page 46

guardian.co.uk/sport

Murray edged out by friendly foe but rivalry will live on

Tennis Kevin Mitchell O2 Arena
The next great rivalry is up and stumbling. In their seventh contest of the year, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic hit more highs and lows than a doo-wop band, and it was no less entertaining for that. This post Federer-Nadal shootout has the key ingredient of any genuine sporting head-to-head: uncertainty. There was plenty of it in yesterdays match, which Djokovic won at the death, and there is no shortage of it every time they step on to a court. Pressed to back judgment with money, the prevailing sentiment might be with Murray on his favourite surface, indoors on a hard court yet he lost to him the only other time they had met in such conditions, in Madrid ve years ago and anybodys guess on clay or grass. Under the lovely riverside tent in Greenwich, Djokovic won 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 in just over two-and-a-half hours to take a 2-0 winning log into the third and nal match of the Group A round robin of the World Tour Finals against Tomas Berdych tomorrow. He leads Murray 10-7 overall, 4-3 for 2012. Murray, who beat Berdych comfortably enough in the rst round, must defeat JoWilfried Tsonga, Djokovics rst-round victim, in his final match, but there remains the wickedly slim possibility that the maths could yet exclude him from the semi-nals. So, they left the O2 Arena in contrasting spirits, the winning Serb exalting in the continued owering of their personal duel at the summit of the game, the losing Scot struggling to come to terms with 44 unforced errors and a return to the growland-despair mien that blighted his development en route to that unforgettable win over Djokovic in the nal of the US Open. If that match was the needle-point on which this relationship now spins, serious jousting either side of it makes them about even for the year, with Murray moving out of Djokovics shadow to prevail at the Olympics before his long-time friend hit back by saving ve match points to win in Shanghai. As Djokovic charitably observed: He could have easily been sitting here as a winner of todays match. But he was not, although Murray contested the view that poor decision-making cost him the match. Asked if he regretted going for and bungling a high-risk serve-and-volley on break point at 3-2 in the second set, he

Andy Murray shows his frustration on the way to a 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 defeat to Novak Djokovic, who he has played seven times this year, losing four and winning three Tom Jenkins for the Guardian

2015

The ATP World Tour nals will stay in London for the next three years after a twoyear extension was agreed

said: He serve and volleyed on the break point in the game before and hit the back end of the line. I volleyed in the next game and missed the volley by a couple of centimetres. When someones blocking returns and chipping returns, normally you can get in close to net and make it hard. He chipped the return, so I got the return that I wanted. I would have liked it maybe a little bit higher, but there are decisions you make in matches. If they come o, you get told youre a genius. If you miss them, then youre an idiot. That was just one of those ones that didnt work today. Murray is no idiot. Yesterday he might have wished for a few more moments of

genius to go with those passages when his focus seemed to desert him, especially in the second set when Djokovic was roused from his rst-set slumber. In the opening exchanges, Murray looked irresistible, moving with ridiculous ease into nearly every shot; thereafter, uncertainty invaded his ground strokes, his normally exquisite lob converted from killing winner to liability. The third set was tight, as both players acknowledged, but the ending was a frustrating mess for Murray. The last two minutes probably decided it, he admitted. He broke from 15-40, and then I had 15-40 next game and didnt break. So that was the moment that decided the match. Probably he is right. But that anxious passage did not exist in isolation. It was the culmination of a ght, many rounds of which were within Murrays grasp, three of which were snatched away from him at crucial moments. Still, there is the comforting near certainty that they will continue to test each other at the highest level in the biggest tournaments for several years to come, two prodigies, a week apart in age, who have risen through the ranks together. Of course its special, Djokovic said. We know each other so well. The friendship goes back a long time, since we were 11 years old and more or less we developed into professional tennis players at the same time. Hopefully this rivalry will evolve and we can have many more great matches on the Tour. As close as it was, this match was not among their greatest contests. Given the extraordinary levels they reached in the semi-nal at Melbourne this year, then in the nal in New York, that is hardly surprising. If they touch those heights again, we will all be blessed.

Racing

Hughes still celebrates his jockeys title on night to forget at Kempton

Greg Wood Kempton
Richard Hughes could not quite manage to win the race named in his honour at Kempton Park last night, but then the very fact that it was called the Congratulations Champion Jockey Richard Hughes Floodlit Stakes was a reminder that he is well past the point where every winner counts. Several times in recent years, Hughes has thrown everything into the title race, most recently in 2010 when he had 1045 rides and an 18% strike, and still nished two winners behind Paul Hanagan. This season, with fewer than 850 rides, he has won the championship on a tight rein, despite missing the first month of the campaign thanks to a draconian ban from a stewarding panel in India. To be honest, it still hasnt really hit me yet, and it wont until I have it [on Saturday], Hughes said last night. But the relief of being champion has nearly wiped all the adrenaline out, so at the moment its more of a downer than an upper. Battles is all Ive been used to, but this year I gave them all ve weeks start, and I had it won with ve weeks to go. It has taken a supreme eort for Hughes to bounce back from his Indian ban, and his disciplinary record in Britain over the summer and autumn has been all but spotless. He is also the rst champion since Frankie Dettori in 2004 to win the title without also riding more horses than any other jockey. Like Dettori, Hughes has done it thanks to his strike-rate, which has been an exceptional 21% over the course of the season. I set off saying to myself, any time when I was trying to catch Paul Hanagan, I was always 20 behind him anyway, so I started Champion jockey elect Richard Hughes had a race run in his honour at Kemptons all-weather meeting last night the season 20 behind the boys, but I didnt let any of them get too far away. I had 40 winners in September this year. I needed to do that when I was trying to catch up with Hanagan and I couldnt, but this year I did. The Flat jockeys title does not come with a large cash prize attached, or even the right to use the rst peg in the dressing room, but Hughess satisfaction at having nally secured the championship is clearly considerable. Its important, he says. Quietly, there were a lot of jockeys going for it this year, without saying that they were going for it. They were going to an awful lot of meetings, anyway, I know that. So I think I won on merit, even though Ryan [Moore] got in an injury, it would still have been pretty close. Its something that they can never take away from you and something that I can tell my kids about. It is special, very special. All the greats are on the list. You get a bit of history, all the hard work wasnt for nothing. Perhaps surprisingly, one of the few definite plans on Hughess schedule between now and the start of the 2013 season is a return to India, though only the countrys 1,000 Guineas and 2,000 Guineas in December, and then the Indian Derby in February. Then he will prepare to defend the title that he has worked so hard to win. Im going to South Africa next Wednesday for a week on the jockeys challenge, Hughes said, and then after that, nothing really apart from India. Ill be o all of January on holiday, then working again in February. Ill do the same as this year [in 2013], chip away until Goodwood and then see how Im going and if Im there with a shout, Ill go hell for leather. It would be nice to do it twice.

Todays tips
Lingeld
Greg Wood 12.40 Swing Easy 1.10 Aussie Lyrics 1.40 Belle Park 2.10 Kelpie Blitz 2.40 Shahzan (nap) 3.10 Arctic Lynx 3.40 Shawka 4.10 Tom Sawyer Top Form Sam Spade Lucky Mountain Two Sugars Aegaeus Delft Tioman Pearl Hanseatic Beauty Pageant Highland Lodge Springinherstep Royal Native Rhum Midnight Charmer Dr Anubis Reach The Beach

Wolverhampton
4.20 4.50 5.20 5.50 6.20 6.50 7.20 7.50 1.00 1.30 2.00 2.30 3.00 3.30 4.00 Greg Wood Monsieur Royale Koharu Wheres Reiley Squad Nenge Mboko Kenny Powers Layali Dubai (nb) Amelia May Waltham Abbey Forster Street Golden Sparkle Call It On Purcells Bridge Or De Grugy Benmadigan Top Form Fly Fisher Archie Stevens Noverre To Go Viva Diva Nenge Mboko Kenny Powers Layali Dubai Amelia May Auberge Dovils Date Doyly Carte Mentalist Mtary Fund (nap) Or De Grugy (nb) Corky Dancer

Towcester
12.50 1.20 1.50 2.20 2.50 3.20 3.50 Highland Lodge Umadachar Ardkilly Witness Destroyer Depld Spot The Ball Topaze Colonges Its A Fiddle

Musselburgh

Todays big races

3.00 Musselburgh Racing UK November Handicap (Class 3) 3m f 6,498
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 111-00 1/10-3 00-23P 00-P22 422513 0-P002 P6110P 10P-P0 650-51 Saga De Tercey (22,C) D McCain 7 11.12 J Maguire 83 Jeu De Roseau (22) C Grant 8 11.10 D ORegan 88 Merrydown (22,C) N Richards 9 11.10 D Costello 85 Monetary Fund (67) Miss V Williams 6 11.8 A Coleman90 Ryton Runner (19,D,BF) Miss L Russell 4 11.5 T Scudamore86 Solway Bay (32,D) Miss L Harrison 10 10.12 S Mulqueen (7)89 Flying Doctor (32,D) A Whillans 9 10.12 E Whillans (3)84 Everaard (13,CD) Mrs K Walton 6 10.9 R McGrath 87 Purcells Bridge (6) Mrs R Dobbin 5 10.2 K Renwick 89

Betting 7-4 Purcells Bridge, 9-2 Monetary Fund, 6-1 Solway Bay, 7-1 Jeu De Roseau, 8-1 Ryton Runner, 10-1 Merrydown. Monetary Fund split a couple of David Pipe runners when runner-up for the second consecutive race at Newton Abbot. He remains well treated on the pick of his form and won at the rst time of asking for Nicky Henderson so a slight break should have freshened him up nicely. Purcells Bridge needs to prove his latest victory wasnt a uke.

3.30 Musselburgh TurfTV Handicap Chase (Class 4) 3m 3,249

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 P110-6 Knight Woodsman (176,D) R M Smith 8 11.12 Mr C Bewley (7)82 050-05 The Big Freeze (23) T Vaughan 6 11.10 R Johnson86 1/3P1- Captain Nash (228,D) C Grant 9 11.8 R McGrath89 064-P1 Or de Grugy (32,D) N Alexander 10 11.8 Lucy Alexander (3)90 3-P20P Ouest Eclair (13) F Murphy 7 10.12 J Reveley 85 00-630 Ballymacdu (51,D) G Charlton 8 10.7 R Mania 87 0-024P Via Archimede (42,CD) Miss L Russell 7 10.7 P Buchanan83 0/P50- Dukeofchesterwood (508,D) K McLintock 10 10.6 B Hughes81 43060- Jan Jandura (209,D) W Amos 7 10.4 B Harding 85 3404-2 Archies Wish (63) M Hammond 8 10.0 K Renwick 88

Betting 3-1 Or de Grugy, 9-2 Archies Wish, 6-1 The Big Freeze, 7-1 Captain Nash, 8-1 Via Archimede, 10-1 Knight Woodsman.

Whos running today? Racecards, news and live results online at guardian.co.uk/horseracing

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Sport Goochs rubber mat helps England learn to counter spin

Cricket Mike Selvey Ahmedabad
Twenty ve years ago this last Monday, in the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai, Graham Gooch played one of the most celebrated of limited-overs innings by an England batsman. He made 115 and it propelled the team into the nal of the World Cup, much to the chagrin of the opponents and champions from 1983, India. There was signicance in it beyond the obvious, for to do so Gooch, not a habitual sweeper of spinners, had made a decision before his innings to sweep Indias duo of left-arm bowlers, Maninder Singh and Ravi Shastri, into oblivion. It was singleminded, determined and successful: between them, the pair conceded 103 runs from their 20 overs and England went on to win by 35 runs. So Gooch, Englands batting coach , knows what he is talking about when addressing the demands of countering spin bowling in subcontinent conditions, something his charges are certain to come up against in the course of the four Test series. This is not something that, for all their training camps and good intentions, England batsmen are naturally good at countering. It seems to be missing from the genes. In the UAE at the start of the year they were disastrous, although, curiously, as Gooch points out, against the ball that did not really turn signicantly but which skidded on low. That, Gooch said, really was a worry at the time. In Sri Lanka, they came to terms with it in more orthodox circumstances and managed to win the second Test to draw the series. Now, at some point, they can expect to encounter the slow turners of legend, and in case they do not nd practice facilities that replicate it, Gooch has brought with him a rubber mat from which the ball will spin sharply. If the spotlight will fall on the players, the coaches will also feel the heat and, as much as anything, these next few weeks will be about how well Gooch is able to convey the message implicit in that Mumbai World Cup innings: that batsmen have to be adaptable, understand the demands, think it through beforehand, realise that there is not a one-size-ts-all approach to batting (or, as he stresses, coaching) and have the condence to carry through a strategy. It is important that you are positive in outlook, Gooch said. You need to defend resolutely and not be distracted by the noise going on around you. But then you have to nd ways of scoring to keep the board moving and put the pressure on the opposition. In practice, I try to highlight the basics play with the spin, do not commit yourself early, learn that there are periods of time where you just have to dig in and wait. The smart ones take these messages on board. It is not easy to develop our techniques in England where bland pitches and conditions in general mean that the ball does not spin. You need it to turn to learn, which is why I have the mat. Although Gooch is at pains to stress the excellent facilities and decent opposition they have been aorded so far, he acknowledges that they have largely been kept away from good quality spinners in helpful conditions. I think we are aware of what is in store for us though, he said. We will find some flat pitches and some that spin. And nothing alters the fact that beyond solid defence, we still have to be able to manoeuvre the ball into the gaps and to know when it is worth taking a risk to nd the boundary and break up the bowling. Hopefully we are learning.

Fiji head to Twickenham amid concern of player exodus

Rugby union Paul Rees
Fiji play at Twickenham in a scheduled tour match for the rst time in the professional era this week but not all their players have been wooed by an opportunity that comes around once in a career. The islanders supply more than 30 eligible players to the three major leagues in Europe but fewer than 10 were named in the original squad for this months tour, which also includes matches against Ireland A and Georgia. The Gloucester anker Akapusi Qera and the Saracens centre Kameli Ratuvou were this week added to the squad as cover on the understanding that they would return to their clubs after the weekend. Under the regulations of the International Rugby Board, which has been working behind the scenes to help the tier-two nations get the players they want, Fiji have rst call for the three weeks this month when the release of players for Test duty applies. As The Fiji Broadcasting Corporation reported this week: Qera and Ratuvou had opted to stay on for club commitments but Fijis injury problems meant the clubs were to release the players. The clubs may have to release the players once called on but, with so many preferring to stay with their clubs, more than half the players in Fijis original squad of 30 were based on the island. Fiji have reportedly complained to the French Rugby Federation after Racing Mtros Jone Qovu withdrew from the touring party last month, and the Clermont Auvergne wing Noa Nakaitaci and Racings utility back Virimi Vakatawa also declined invitations to tour. Nakataci has played for Fiji at Under-20 level but he will be free to play for France when he, like Vakatawa, qualies on residency. A growing concern for Fiji, along with Tonga, Samoa, the United States, Canada and Georgia, who are all involved in matches in Europe this month as part of the IRBs policy of providing tier-two nations with meaningful matches inbetween World Cups, is not just that a number of their players are putting club before country but that those who move abroad tend to settle there. This leaves their children with dual residency: the Wales No8 Toby Faletau and the England squad prop Mako Vunipola are two examples. The Fiji coach, Inoke Male, has said that clubs in France and England are behaving like vultures in enticing promising young players to leave Fiji and join their academies. Young players now want to pursue options for other countries rather than coming on tour and that is not a good sign, said Male. England and France already have a number of players to choose from and for players to be poached from a small country is not acceptable. Much has been made of the importance of this months autumn international series to the major European nations but it is just as important a time for the tiertwo nations. Samoa, who like Tonga have a strong squad packed with European-

OConnell misses out

Irelands injury crisis intensied last night when Paul OConnell was ruled out of Saturdays game with South Africa. The lock will miss the autumn opener at Aviva Stadium because of a back injury that only yesterday showed signs of clearing up. Paul returned to training at the start of this week and took a full part in the sessions on Monday and Tuesday, said the Irish Rugby Football Union. However, he suered a reaction. Paul will see a specialist and an update will be issued in due course. The loss of OConnell is a blow to Ireland, who had already seen Brian ODriscoll, Sean OBrien, Rob Kearney and Rory Best ruled out of all three matches. In addition, Stephen Ferris is struggling with an ankle injury and at best will feature only in the nal game. A new captain will be conrmed at the team announcement today with either Jamie Heaslip or Jonathan Sexton lling the role. PA

based players, have designs of breaking into the top eight, increasing their chance of reaching the World Cup quarter-nals, while Fiji, Tonga and Canada have the incentive of being in the top 12 next month and so automatically qualifying for 2015. Win two of the matches and we have a chance, said Pat Lam, the technical adviser of Samoa, who play Canada, in Colwyn Bay, Wales, and France. The United States face Russia and Tonga in Colwyn Bay before travelling to Romania. The bulk of their squad are amateurs but they have a core of professionals who are based in Europe, including Chris Wyles of Saracens, Paul Emerick of Wasps and Stade Franais Scott LaValla. They arrived in Wales this week not sure whether their highest profile player, Takudzwa Ngwenya, would be joining them due to visa problems. They wanted to include Northamptons Samu Manoa, whose father and grandfather played for Tonga, a player who has been involved in all 10 of the Saints matches this season but were told he was injured. The 27-year-old California-born Manoa has played for his country only once, just before he moved to Franklins Gardens. Northampton say that they have never stood in Manoas way of playing for the United States. But Fiji, as they prepare to face England at Twickenham for the rst time since 1999, could be forgiven for thinking that some caps are considered worth more than others.

Care gets back on track just like Lancaster ordered

Robert Kitson
Danny Care is the ultimate symbol of the way English rugby is going. Last season he was all over the place, in trouble o the eld and struggling to maximise his considerable talent. Suddenly it is a dierent, healthier story and there is a renewed bounce to him, not least haircut-wise. High and Tight is the fashion at his club Harlequins and the national squads soaring team spirit neatly mirrors that description. Gone are the Care-less headlines, the police statements and the drink-driving charges, replaced by a clear-eyed desire to full the talent which Stuart Lancaster rst spotted at West Park, Leeds, more than a decade ago. It hurt Lancaster as much as Care when the head coach had to eject the scrum-half from the elite player squad in January for disciplinary reasons. The good news for England is that the 25-year-old has come back a better man. Maybe it was a period in his life which had to happen in order for Care to appreciate what he was in danger of squandering. Playing for England is the biggest honour you can ever have ... to have that taken away hurt me a lot, he said. Ill never do anything to put myself in that situation again. Im just delighted to get another chance with Stuart. Ive worked with him since I was 14 or 15. He told me o back then, he still tells me o now but hes developed a great culture around the squad. All the boys want to play for him and do well. The restoration of a player whose buzzing form has been central to Harlequins slick rugby this season also reects well on Conor OShea, his club director of rugby, as well as Lancaster. There are plenty of other No9s out there and Cares recurring problems would have tested anyones patience. Stuart said to me the last thing he wanted to do was the rst thing he had to do throw me out of the squad, said Care, set to be named today in the starting XV against Fiji on Saturday. I put him in a position where he had to do something. But I understood his decision and Stuart said to me that day: By no means is your England career over, youve just got to get yourself back on track, get playing well and youll be back in my thoughts. Thats what Ive done. That process has also been accelerated by working with the former England scrum-half Kyran Bracken to improve the consistency of his passing and kicking. A couple of years ago Id go a couple of good games, then have a bad one. From speaking to Kyran, who had a brilliant rivalry with Matt Dawson and Andy Gomarsall, its all about playing well every game. I know every time I pull on a Quins shirt I have to do that. Ultimately I want to be the best scrum-half in England. To do that Ive got to train and play very well every time I get the chance. His game management has also improved; a blur of helter-skelter rugby is not always the answer. Quins, and England, want an energising player with a calculating brain. Before if I played a game and thought Id played all right I wouldnt watch the video. Now I spend a bit more time analysing my games. I think Englands gameplan is going to be similar to Quinss. If its on its on, otherwise rely on a good kicking game and a good chase. Assuming this enthusiasm and focus do not waver, his rivalry with Ben Youngs and others looks destined to be erce. Having been recalled for the final Test against South Africa in June and named man of the match, his appetite is huge. Its all about rugby for me now. Thats what I lost sight of last year and I think it showed in my game. I had to grow up pretty quickly and I think Ive done that.

Danny Care is expected to be named in Englands starting XV to play Fiji

Coe vows to ght drug cheats after becoming BOA chairman

Olympic Games Owen Gibson
Lord Coe has said that he will continue the British Olympic Associations push for tougher penalties for drug cheats after taking over as chairman of the organisation. The 43 members of the National Olympic Committee yesterday voted by acclamation for Coe to take over from Lord Moynihan, who announced after the London Olympics that he was stepping down as chairman a year early. Moynihan fought a high profile and fractious battle with the World Anti-Doping Agency over the BOAs ability to ban athletes for life who had been suspended for doping, but was ultimately forced to drop the bylaw. Coe backed the BOAs ght and, while likely to be more consensual than Moynihan, has promised to continue to lobby for a harder line. You know where I come from over drugs. Ive been battling that for as long as Ive eectively been a competitor. My stance is still non-negotiable and this organisation was quite right to believe that it has to be within the interests and power of the organisation to decide what is best for that organisation. Ninety-nine per cent of the athletes supported that bylaw and I am sorry we werent able to uphold it, Coe said. We will need to think about how we adapt to that landscape. I will chair an organisation that will take a zero tolerance approach to drug abuse in sport but we have to recognise that we are in a much more complex and complicated legal landscape than we were 30 years ago. Wada is currently consulting on its new code, with pressure for the two-year ban to be increased to include the Olympic Games that follows. Coe will oversee the development of a new three-year strategy for the BOA and hinted he would refocus the organisation on its traditional remit of preparing British teams for the Games. This organisation has a monumental responsibility to manage those teams and to promote Olympism throughout the country, Coe said. Being given the custody of Team GB every two years is a monumental responsibility. This is a service led organisation and it needs to be a world class organisation in the delivery of those services at Games time. In the landscape of British sport, where we are all concerned about that pathway between playground and podium, the BOA will want to play a role in that. Its particular responsibilities will be something we all want to discuss in the run up to Rio. Lord Coe said the BOA has a monumental responsibility to promote Olympism throughout the county

Olympic stadium conversion could drag on for four years

Sports politics Owen Gibson
If West Ham United are given the go-ahead to move into the Olympic Stadium they are unlikely to be able to start playing there until the start of the 2016-17 season, it has emerged. The chief executive of the London Legacy Development Corporation, Dennis Hone, has admitted that if it were to press ahead with plans to convert the stadium to make it suitable for football and athletics, then it could be August 2016 before the east London club moved in. When Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, and the government resolved to reconsider the future of the stadium and invite bids from football teams to retain a larger capacity than the original 25,000 seat base case, it was hoped that a tenant could be found for the start of the 201314 season. By the end of the rst fractious process, which awarded the stadium to West Ham, a deadline of 2014-15 had been set for the stadium to host football matches alongside athletics, concerts and community use. That decision had to be annulled amid legal challenges from Tottenham Hotspur and Leyton Orient but there were still hopes that a solution could be found that would enable regular use of the stadium when the south end of the park is due to reopen in spring 2014. As negotiations over the future of the 468m stadium dragged on, amid debate over how conversion costs of up to 200m would be met, it became clear the start of the 2015-16 season would be a more realistic deadline. Now, Hone has admitted that it could be August 2016 before competitive football is played in the stadium. 2014 is completely out. It will be August 2015 at the absolute earliest and possibly August 2016, said Hone, appearing before a London Assembly committee. That would mean it will have taken longer to convert the stadium than to build it and would risk losing public enthusiasm for the venue built during the Games. An already frustrated West Ham are likely to be unimpressed by the latest delay, although there remains a signicant gap between the amount it is prepared to put towards the conversion costs and the total the LLDC would like to see. If the LLDC decided to walk away from talks and leave the stadium largely untouched, the work would cost 40m and it could reopen in 2014. The conversion work, including retractable seats and hospitality facilities, as well as a cantilevered roof, would be a complex operation that would not start until next summer.

468m

Graham Gooch has urged Englands batsmen to be positive in outlook

The amount it took to build the Olympic Stadium, which would need another 200m to enable it to house a football club

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Cycling
BOGDAN CRISTEL/REUTERS

Cavendish is like a brother we fall out and make up

Exclusive webchat live on the web Join Bradley Wiggins at 1pm today guardian.co.uk/sport

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In the nal extract from his autobiography Bradley Wiggins talks about his relationship with the sprinter
ark Cavendish is like my younger brother. We fall out, we make up, we take the piss out of each other, we say this and that but the relationship is never going to go away. Its like that with my own brother Ryan, who is eight years younger than me and now living in Milan teaching English. We can go for months on end when I dont happen to talk to him and then its like we saw each other yesterday. Its just the relationship we have. The rst time I remember bumping into Cav was in the corridor at the Manchester velodrome some time in 2003 when I was there training for the world pursuit championship. Cav was in the academy and they were in there trying to set their individual pursuit times back then you used to have to meet a certain standard to get on the programme. He came up to me; hed done the time he needed to do and was really made up about it. Hed have been 17 or maybe 18. The next year, 2004, we rode a criterium, a city-centre circuit race, in Calne; I was riding for Crdit Agricole at the time, he was there with the academy. I got second and won a box of Go gels as a prime one of the prizes they give out for rst across the line on certain laps during the race and I remember in the HQ afterwards I gave them to him. Theyd have been 25 quids worth and he was so grateful Id given him these gels because at the academy they had to buy that kind of thing for themselves. I reminded him of that in 2011 and he said, Oh yeah, I forgot that, Im going to put that in my book. In 2005 I rode the Giro; after that it was the national criterium championships at Otley, where I led him out and he won it. By 2007 he had turned pro, he got his first big win in the Scheldeprijs and he was getting established as a sprinter; he started saying to me, why dont you come to T-Mobile next year? We both rode the 2007 Tour, then started doing some sixdays together that winter as preparation

for the Madison at the worlds and the Olympics, and then I joined T-Mobile, or Highroad as it became. So we spent a lot of time at training camps and races; we used to room together. In 2008 we won the Madison together at the world championships, did Romandie and the Giro in the same team, shared hotel rooms all through those. Then it was the Beijing Olympics, where the Madison was a disaster because I wasnt at my best, and Cav was extremely unhappy as it was his only chance for a medal and he was really pumped for it. After that we didnt talk for ve years, or so it would seem if you believe what you read in the papers. After Beijing I didnt speak to him until I saw him in Qatar the following February but I did get a text from him a couple of weeks after the Olympics: he said, How are you doing and have you sobered up yet? In 2009, when I was with Garmin and he was at HTC, we would talk about cycling but never mention the Olympics. Thats something we have never, ever discussed. So through 2009 we had a few little spats but its not a problem. When he does something I dont like I just say, Oh you dick and likewise hell say it to me. Thats part of the relationship we have. Thats how we get on. In years to come, I know Ill look back and be proud to tell my grandchildren I rode with Mark Cavendish, the greatest sprinter of all time. A large part of that comes from the World Road Race Championships in Copenhagen, where the Great Britain lads put in one of the most dominating rides that event has ever seen. But it was a special time for me too. Id come out of that Vuelta and my self-belief had

Ill look back and be proud to tell my grandchildren I rode with Cavendish, the greatest sprinter of all time

gone up, I got my medal in the time trial and then in the road race I had a role to play. My job was to do the last lap, to keep the pace as high as I could and make sure the peloton was all together when the nal buildup to the sprint began. Earlier in the year it didnt look quite as simple as it turned out to be. In all the discussions about the worlds with guys like G [Geraint Thomas], Ian Stannard and the others, and the discussions with Rod Ellingworth the manager who masterminded the whole thing I didnt quite know what to think. But as the year went on, it became more clear-cut. Cav said he would love me to ride, which was probably what made the dierence; and I thought, OK, Ill do the road race. But earlier in the year, I dont think I really believed it would be possible. It wasnt that obvious to me how we would manage to keep the race together to ensure there was a bunch sprint for Cav. No team had managed anything like it for years. But once we did it, we realised we had been part of something very special; that feeling is one Ill never forget. Sometimes in the past when Id been in a winning team it had been a simple matter of, Oh, thats a good job, Ive done my bit, its great youve won. But this time it was much, much more than that. I did it for Cav. Since mid-2011, with him it has always felt special. Hes so gracious, so grateful for everything you do for him. When you are committing to do your job for him, you know hes not going to let you down. Thats inspiring in a way because you know he really needs you on the road when youre doing your utmost, and he looks after you as well when its all over. I cant remember what he said afterwards. He was very emotional when we saw him in the bus but it was a while until that happened, because he went straight o the podium to the doping control and press conference, and all that time we were in the bus drinking champagne. So it was at least an hour before he came back to us and we were all a bit silly by then; he was just very emotional. He thanked us all individually, we had

another team photo on the bus; then we all went back to the hotel. We were all a bit dumbstruck, all a bit in shock. I dont think we fully appreciated what wed achieved. Cavs gold medal was a victory for all of us. When you are leading the Tour, there are hard decisions to be made. Its not always a nice business and during the 2012 Tour I couldnt help feeling at times that Mark Cavendish deserved better than he got. Right from when he and Bernie [Bernhard Eisel] had been selected for the Tour in June, I think he had been very conscious of what people thought. From day one in Lige he had said in team meetings that he recognised we were going for yellow and that he was determined to be part of it in the same way I had been part of the picture at the worlds the September before.

is line was: I dont want to miss out on the opportunity to be in a British team going for the yellow jersey even if that means Im not going to get a full lead out in the sprint. It was dicult listening to him say that, because the nice part of me wanted to stand up and say, Sod it, Cav, well lead you out at those stage nishes. Ill try and ride for the yellow as well as support you when it comes down to a sprint. But the coward in me had to say, Well, you know how this is, we cant ride for the sprint every day; we had a goal at the start of the Tour and that has to be the priority. Throughout the Tour, Cav was keen to feel that he had played his part in trying Extracted from Bradley Wiggins: My Time published by Yellow Jersey Press this week. To order your copy for 14 (rrp 20) with free UK p&p visit guardianbookshop.co.uk or call 0330 333 6846 Bradley Wiggins A Year in Yellow will be screened on Sky Atlantic HD on Wednesday 21 November at 10pm

to have a British Tour winner for the rst time. I got the sense that he was feeling a bit self-conscious, that he felt we might all be thinking we could have had someone else in the team instead of him. Thats why he was coming back for bottles on the stages when it wasnt going to be a sprint, and thats why on the first day in the Pyrenees he rode on the front most of the way up the climb of the Mur de Pgure the day of the tacks and the punctures. There was only so much of a role he could play, because hes restricted in his climbing, but a lot of the time his presence was enough to make a dierence. Cav is a larger-than-life character, and sometimes in a team the things someone says and does are enough. All through the three and a half weeks, just having him around was a boost: he was brilliant, good at the dinner table, good with the other riders. In our attempt to win the yellow jersey, Mark was the rider within Sky who lost out the most. So that helps to explain what happened coming into Brive on the last Friday of the Tour. It was a long stage, 230km, up and down; the break went early and the peloton never seemed to be happy with it. It was the last chance for a lot of riders to win a stage so people kept chasing; the break would come back, another one would go, someone wouldnt like it and theyd pull it back. Eventually 20-odd riders went away and a few teams rode behind all day. It was a tough day for everybody and when it became clear that a bunch kick was on the cards, I gave it everything in the nal kilometre and a half to get Cav within reach of those last few breakaways. I like the satisfaction you get from being part of a lead-out train, having that open road in front of you, doing your job, swinging o, watching someone like Cav win. Its a better feeling sometimes than winning yourself. But the time leading up to when you get in the position to do the lead out is the tough one; its not something I enjoy doing. As Ive got older Ive wanted to take fewer risks. Bradley Wiggins 2012

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The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Football Gerrard will join the 100 club when England line up in Sweden
Daniel Taylor
Steven Gerrard will join the small and exclusive band of footballers to have won 100 England caps when Roy Hodgson takes his side to Stockholm next week for a friendly that could also resurrect Jack Wilsheres international career. Hodgsons initial plans to field a youthful, experimental side have had to be balanced by his desire not to be seen as underplaying the significance of the occasion, namely the opening of Swedens new national stadium, the 65,000-capacity Swedbank Arena on the outskirts of Stockholm. With that in mind, Hodgson has decided to include Gerrard and some other senior players, Wayne Rooney among them, while also involving several younger ones when he names his squad today. Gerrard will therefore become only the sixth England player to reach 100 caps, joining Peter Shilton (125), David Beckham (115), Bobby Moore (108), Bobby Charlton (106) and Billy Wright (105) on the list 12 years after making his debut at the age of 20. Ashley Cole is also on 99 caps but his inclusion is doubtful, not least because the Chelsea left-back is still troubled by a recurrent ankle problem. Hodgson may also use the opportunity Steven Gerrard will be joined by other senior players, including Wayne Rooney, and several youngsters in Englands squad to bring in the talented Liverpool attacker Raheem Sterling as he tries to convince the uncapped 17-year-old to play for England rather than selecting Jamaica. As for Wilshere, Arsenal are understood to have relaxed their position about his potential involvement now that the midelders sending-o at Manchester United last weekend means he is suspended for Saturdays game at home to Fulham. Arsne Wenger had said he would ask the England manager if Wilshere could skip the match rather than risk overexerting the player after 17 months out with an ankle injury. The revised feeling is that he could do with the match practice. Its up to the England manager and Im sure he will speak to the boss here and theyll decide to do whats best for me, Wilshere said. If they want me to play then Ill play. But if they decide its best to rest then Ill rest. Its down to the powers above me and Im sure theyll make the right decision. Its a dream to play for England so if Im selected then Id look forward to playing. The Football Association is close to finalising two more friendlies for next year, with France among the possible opponents being considered on the weeklong visit to Brazil at the start of June. England will definitely face the home country but have a couple of other options for the second friendly on a trip that has been arranged to give Hodgsons players a chance to experience the climate ahead of the 2014 World Cup, qualifying for which nishes later in 2013. Stuart Pearces squad for the Under-21s friendly between England and Northern Ireland, to be staged at Bloomeld Road on Tuesday, will also be named today.

No ban for Mancini but a manager berating ocials does not t City bill
Uefa will not punish Italian but Tuesday nights scenes do not help his long-term prospects. By Daniel Taylor
At least Roberto Mancini has been spared a touchline ban to go with the other ordeals Manchester City have encountered in the Champions League, even if the threat of recriminations because of his tete-a-tete with an unobliging referee never felt the most relevant part of the story anyway. It was more about what it said of his current frame of mind after another of the repetitive disappointments that, true to form, saw the rst press release from the bookmakers land the following lunchtime. Mancini odds on to say arrivederci was the title. The latest odds: 2-5 that he leaves before the end of the season. It is a debate that tends to ignore the fact that Sir Alex Ferguson, for one, would be delighted if he no longer had the Italian as a direct competitor. Yet it is a legitimate debate, all the same, when another European campaign is slowly disintegrating, the people running the club on a day-today basis have Pep Guardiola on speeddial and the current manager increasingly appears to be showing the strain, culminating in his march across the pitch to confront the referee after Tuesdays 2-2 draw against Ajax. Lets not exaggerate this, what hape pened was not in the same league as, say, me Mancinis mini-breakdown at the end of own f the 1992 European Cup nal when he tried nal to chase the referee, Aron Schmidhuber, on and probably would have got to him, too, ve if it were not for Domenico Arnuzzo holdico ing him back. Nonetheless, Mancinis decision to inis go after Peter Rasmussen and the two sen assistants did little but increase the sense ncrease of someone feeling the pressure. Turning on the nearest earest cameraman was even dafter. If Mancini genuinely believes elieves the cameras should be turned e o at the nal whistle, and that the people lming the match ought not bother with a manager making ager a beeline straight for the referee, there is something badly blurring his y judgment. Citys manager can consider himself f fortunate that he has not been reported ot to Uefa, sparing him the kind of ban that e Arsne Wenger has faced already in this ed seasons competition. The same goes for Mario Balotelli, whose own loss of selfcontrol meant Vincent Kompany had t to play the Arnuzzo role to prevent his le team-mate from doing something stupid on the back of his grievance a justiable ance grievance, in fairness about not getting a stoppage-time penalty. y. The real story here, of course, is not actually what happened after the final ed Roberto Mancini often lost his temper as a player and is showing the strain as a manager

A bad week
The Manchester City manager, Roberto Mancini, has endured a dicult week Thursday The Guardian reveals Mancini held talks with Monaco last season about becoming their new manager Friday Mancini conrms at his weekly press conference he had talks with seven or eight clubs last season Saturday City miss the chance to go top of the league after a frustrating goalless draw at West Ham United Sunday Mancini says City are not yet ready to be credible contenders for the Champions League Monday In response to a question from the Guardian, Mancini loses his temper and demands respect Tuesday Mancini storms on to the pitch to confront the referee after a controversial 2 2 draw with Ajax 2-2

Scotland Levein to take legal advice over SFA sacking

Craig Levein is taking legal advice after being sacked as Scotland manager. Levein was relieved of his duties by the Scottish Football Association on Monday, who stressed they would honour his contract which runs until the summer of 2014. In a statement released last night, Levein said: I am extremely disappointed by the process of the last week. I note the position as stated by the SFA but do not concur and I am currently taking legal advice as to my options. I will make no further comment at this time. Scotland had only won three of their 12 competitive matches under Levein. PA

Blackpool Appleton leaves Pompey to manage Seasiders

Blackpool have named Michael Appleton as their new manager after reaching an agreement for his release from Portsmouth. Appleton moves to Bloomeld Road as successor to Ian Holloway, who joined Crystal Palace last weekend. The 36-year-old former Manchester United trainee has impressed in his rst managerial role, earning plaudits despite overseeing the nancially stricken clubs relegation to League One last season. Appleton previously worked at West Bromwich Albion as assistant under Roberto Di Matteo and Roy Hodgson. Blackpool lie 12th in the Championship. PA

whistle but the preceding 90 minutes, the lack of control, the vulnerable defending, a awed zonal-marking system and the fact it leaves City bottom of Group D, with two points from four games going into their nal two xtures against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Even if City can reinvent themselves, win both matches and surprise everyone, maybe even themselves, it probably wont be enough to qualify. Two things are certain. One is that Ferran Soriano, Citys recently appointed chief executive, and the new director of football, Txiki Begiristain, prefer a manager to act with good grace rather than getting involved in the kind of outbursts we have seen from Mancini over the last week. The very reason Barcelona, under the Soriano-Begiristain regime, turned down Jos Mourinho and appointed Guardiola in 2008 was because they did not want someone who would create controversy. Mourinho generated media conict almost permanently and was a potential source of conflict within the club, to quote Soriano. The second is that there is very little appetite for change among the clubs supporters. Criticising Mancini after what he has achieved in such a short space of time smacks of a callousness that only football can eke out of normal people, as Simon Curtis puts it on his Down the Kippax Steps website. Mancinis name was sung loudly Mancini s against Ajax, as it is in every game. Mida way through the second half, when he replaced Carlo Tevez with Edin Dzeko, Carlos it was clear not everyone in the crowd n wanted the A Argentinian to be taken o, but there was no dissent worthy of the but description. At the nal whistle, the booing was largely reserved for the referee. At a rough guess, a poll would turn up at least 90 to 95% of fa in Mancinis favour. fans The bottom line, however, is that City have greater am ambitions than being knocked out of the Champions League group stages Cham every season. Tuesday was the rst time season Begiristain has watched Mancinis team since joining the board and it ended join with a manager coming dangerous m close to a disciplinary charge and the captain trying to stop one of his capt team-mates from doing something team-m he might regret. mig It was a glimpse of the old Mancini, a return to the days Man when Sven-Goran Eriksson, his wh former coach at Lazio, rememfor bers him as the worst player be he has ever known for getting into referees faces. in As for Balotelli, where do you start? At Blackpools Sea yo Life, perhaps, where they have Life just named one of their sharks after him. He [the shark] seems to exh exhibit the same behaviour as the foot footballer, the general manager, Jenn Newton, told the Manchester Ne Evening News. At feeding time we put New the sh on a big pole and he will try to pull sta into the pool or snap the pole. int Trouble, in other words.

Results
Football
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Group E P W Shakhtar Donetsk 4 2 Chelsea 4 2 Juventus 4 1 Nordsjaelland 4 0 Chelsea Torres 6 Oscar 40 Moses 90 Juventus Marchisio 6 Vidal 23 Giovinco 37 Quagliarella 75 Group F Bayern Munich Valencia Bate Lille Bayern Munich Schweinsteiger 5 Pizarro 18 28 33 Robben 23 Kroos 66 Valencia Jons 26 Soldado 29pen Feghouli 51 86 Group G Barcelona Celtic Benca Spartak Moscow Benca Cardozo 55 69 Celtic Wanyama 21 Watt 83 P 4 4 4 4 (0) 2 (1) 2 W 3 2 1 1 D 0 1 1 0 L 1 1 2 3 F 8 6 3 6 A Pts 5 9 5 7 4 4 9 3 (0) 0 (0) 1 P 4 4 4 4 (5) 6 W 3 3 2 0 D 0 0 0 0 L F A Pts 1 10 5 9 1 10 4 9 2 8 9 6 4 2 12 0 (0) 1 (2) 3 D 1 1 3 1 L F A Pts 1 7 5 7 1 10 6 7 0 8 4 6 3 1 11 1 Group H Man Utd Galatasaray CFR Cluj Braga Braga Alan 49pen 19,015 CFR Cluj Sougou 53 19,520 P 4 4 4 4 (0) 1 W 4 1 1 1 D 0 1 1 0 L 0 2 2 3 F 9 4 5 5 A Pts 4 12 5 4 6 4 8 3 (0) 3 LEAGUE TWO P W Gillingham 16 11 Port Vale 16 9 Cheltenham 16 8 Fleetwood Town 16 7 Burton Albion 16 7 Bradford 16 7 Rotherham 15 7 Torquay 16 6 Rochdale 16 6 York 16 5 Exeter 16 7 Southend 16 6 Accrington Stanley 15 6 Northampton 16 5 Dag & Red 16 4 Chestereld 16 4 Morecambe 16 5 Oxford Utd 16 6 Plymouth 16 4 Bristol Rovers 15 3 AFC Wimbledon 16 4 Wycombe 15 3 Barnet 16 3 Aldershot 16 3 Plymouth Cowan-Hall 49 5,219 (0) 1 D L F A Pts 3 2 30 10 36 4 3 35 18 31 5 3 22 17 29 6 3 22 14 27 5 4 25 21 26 4 5 24 18 25 4 4 24 18 25 6 4 23 19 24 6 4 23 21 24 8 3 21 19 23 2 7 23 24 23 4 6 22 19 22 3 6 18 22 21 5 6 21 22 20 7 5 23 24 19 7 5 17 18 19 4 7 18 21 19 1 9 24 30 19 5 7 21 23 17 5 7 16 26 14 2 10 18 31 14 4 8 13 23 13 4 9 14 26 13 4 9 12 25 13 (0) 2 Motherwell 3,941 (0) 0 Dundee Utd Russell 84 (0) 1 FRANCE Ligue 1 Sochaux 2 Evian 1 Coupe de la Ligue: Fourth round Bastia 1 Auxerre 0

Shakhtar Donetsk (1) 2 Willian 9 47 41,067

(0) 1

Manchester Utd Van Persie 80 Rooney 85pen Hernndez 90 Galatasaray Yilmaz 18 61 74

Tennis
ATP WORLD TOUR FINALS (O2 Arena, London) Singles: Group A: N Djokovic (Ser) bt A Murray (GB) 4-6 6-3 7-5. Doubles: Group B: M Bhupathi & R Bopanna (Ind) bt R Lindstedt & H Tecau (Swe/Rom) 6-3 5-7 10-5; J Marray & F Nielsen (GB/Den) bt M Mirnyi & D Nestor (Blr/Can) 7-6 (7-3) 4-6 12-10.

(1) 3

(3) 4

Nordsjaelland

(0) 0

37,165

Lille Kalou 57 64,500

(2) 4

Bate Bressan 54 Mozolevski 83 38,000

(0) 2

Spartak Moscow 35,675 Barcelona Messi 90 55,283

NPOWER LEAGUE ONE P W D L F Tranmere 16 10 4 2 34 Sheeld Utd 16 8 8 0 19 Stevenage 16 9 5 2 23 Crawley Town 16 9 2 5 24 Notts County 16 8 4 4 28 Doncaster 15 8 3 4 20 Swindon 16 7 5 4 23 MK Dons 16 7 5 4 19 Brentford 16 6 7 3 22 Preston 16 6 5 5 26 Yeovil 16 7 1 8 26 Bournemouth 16 5 6 5 26 Colchester 16 5 5 6 17 Crewe 16 5 5 6 16 Carlisle 16 5 5 6 20 Walsall 16 5 4 7 19 Portsmouth 16 5 3 8 22 Oldham 15 4 5 6 16 Coventry 16 4 5 7 18 Leyton Orient 16 5 1 10 11 Shrewsbury 16 3 5 8 17 Scunthorpe 16 3 4 9 15 Bury 16 2 6 8 17 Hartlepool 16 1 5 10 13 Hartlepool (0) 0 Tranmere Robinson 79pen 3,285 Stockton 90 MK Dons (1) 1 Leyton Orient Lowe 41 6,985

A Pts 14 34 10 32 17 32 22 29 17 28 14 27 14 26 11 26 17 25 20 23 24 22 28 21 20 20 21 20 28 20 25 19 24 18 17 17 23 17 19 16 22 14 28 13 28 12 28 8 (0) 2 (0) 0

Fixtures
Football

(8.05pm unless stated)

Burton Albion Stanton 74 Weir 79

CLYDESDALE BANK PREMIER LEAGUE P W D L F Celtic 11 6 3 2 21 Hibernian 12 6 3 3 23 Inverness CT 12 4 6 2 25 Aberdeen 12 4 6 2 15 St Johnstone 12 5 3 4 15 Motherwell 12 4 4 4 16 Dundee Utd 11 4 4 3 12 Kilmarnock 12 4 3 5 17 Ross County 12 3 6 3 15 Hearts 12 3 4 5 12 St Mirren 12 3 3 6 16 Dundee 12 2 1 9 5

A 11 16 20 11 16 17 13 15 16 13 22 22

Pts 21 21 18 18 18 16 16 15 15 13 12 7

UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE Group A Anzhi Makhachkala v Liverpool (5pm); Udinese v Young Boys (6pm) Group B Acadmica v Atltico Madrid (6pm); Plzen v Hapoel Tel-Aviv (6pm) Group C Fenerbahce v AEL Limassol (6pm); Marseille v Borussia Mnchengladbach (6pm) Group D Bordeaux v Martimo (6pm); Club Brugge v Newcastle (6pm) Group E FC Copenhagen v VfB Stuttgart (6pm); Molde v Steaua Bucharest (6pm) Group F AIK Solna v PSV Eindhoven (6pm); Napoli v Dnipro (6pm) Group G Basle v Videoton; Sporting v Genk Group H Neftchi v Rubin Kazan (5pm); Partizan Belgrade v Internazionale Group I Athletic Bilbao v Lyon; Hapoel Kiryat Shmona v Sparta Prague (8.05) Group J Lazio v Panathinaikos; Tottenham v Maribor Group K Bayer Leverkusen v Rapid Vienna; Metalist Kharkiv v Rosenborg Group L Hannover v Helsingborg; Twente v Levante THE WORD WELSH LEAGUE CUP Semi-nals The New Saints v Airbus UK (7.45pm); Carmarthen v Llanelli (7.30pm)

Cricket
TOUR MATCH (rst day of four) Ahmedabad Haryana v England XI (4am)

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

43

Football

Van Persie turns on power for United after lights go out

Champions League Paul Wilson Estdio Municipal
Braga 1
Alan 49pen

Manchester Utd 3
Van Persie 80, Rooney 84, Hernnndez

This was not one of Manchester Uniteds brightest European displays, even before a power cut plunged the stadium into darkness and forced the players o the pitch for 10 minutes in the second half. They were already a goal down at that point thanks to Alans penalty at the start of the second period, and until going behind had never managed to cause any serious problems for the Braga defence. Only when United brought Van Persie on and reverted to something like their usual attacking set-up did the goals to win the match arrive in the nal 10 minutes. It was a lesson to Sir Alex Ferguson, if another one were needed, that his side usually do better when set up to attack. Surprisingly, in view of the fact that he blamed a lack of width for United conceding two early goals in the home xture, Sir Alex Ferguson went narrow again, with only Nani used as a winger. Ryan Giggs was retired from touchline duty some years ago and operated behind Wayne Rooney in central mideld, while Antonio Valencia found himself pressed into service at right-back. It appeared from the Uefa teamsheet that the diamond formation was to return, yet that was a misleading impression. United were simply at, almost unrecognisably so, as if they were attempting to bore Braga into submission. Content to let United retain possession and slow the pace of the game, Braga seemed strangely subdued at rst as if in awe of their opponents. Even when an early mistake from Jonny Evans mistake let Eder in behind him, the striker rolled the ball tamely across goal, though when Rben Micael made room for a shot a few minutes later it went considerably closer and represented a more direct attempt than anything United had managed. Rben Micael went close again midway through the rst half, almost taking advantage of Chris Smalling temporarily leaving the eld for treatment while Giggs stood in as emergency centre half. Smalling was back by the time Braga gave United a warning by hitting a post, once again showing their ability to cross quickly and accurately. Hugo Viana put in a low cross, Eder met it perfectly with a diving header that David de Gea could not reach, and the goalkeeper must have been
Braga 4-3-2-1 Beto; Salino, Coelho, Douglo, Elderson; Custdio, Viana (Mossoro, 86), Alan; Rben Micael, Rben Amorim (Barbosa, 85); Eder. Subs not used Quim, Baiano, Ismaily, Djamal, Ze Luis. Manchester United 4-5-1 De Gea; Valencia, Smalling, Evans (Ferdinand, 59), Evra; Anderson, Giggs, Nani (Rafael, 73), Rooney, Welbeck (Van Persie, 64); Hernndez. Subs not used Lindegaard, Carrick, Young, Cleverley. Referee F Brych (Ger)..

relieved to see the ball come back into play o his right-hand upright. While Braga did not create anything quite as clear-cut in the minutes before half-time they continued to look the side most likely to open the scoring. Two stats that ashed on the scoreboard just before the interval told the story. In the first period the home side had only enjoyed 40% of possession but had managed 10 goal attempts to Uniteds one. And United have often come to grief in the past when trying to play defensively. Belatedly, they brought on Robin van Persie for the last half hour, though by then Braga had something to try and hang on to and were playing with condence. The character of the game changed when Braga were awarded a penalty at the beginning of the second half. Evans did little more than stand his ground to sent Custdio ying, though United were already playing a dangerous game by letting their opponents pass their way into the area and the referee showed little hesitation, allowing Alan to blast his side into the lead from the spot. The question now was whether Ferguson would continue to play a patient

Group H
P W D L F A GD Pts

Man Utd Galatasaray CFR Cluj Braga

4 4 0 4 1 1 4 1 1 4 1 0

0 2 2 3

9 4 5 5

4 5 6 8

5 -1 -1 -3

12 4 4 3

Results CFR Cluj 0 Man Utd 4, Galatasaray 0 Braga 2 Braga 0 CFR Cluj 2, Man Utd 1 Galatasaray 0 Galatasaray 1 CFR Cluj 1, Man Utd 3 Braga 2 Braga 1 Man Utd 3, CFR Cluj 1 Galatasaray 3 Remaining xtures 20 Nov CFR Cluj v Braga, Galatasaray v Man Utd 5 Dec Braga v Galatasaray, Man Utd v CFR Cluj

Wayne Rooney, scorer of Manchester Uniteds second goal, challenges Rben Micael of Braga Jose Manuel Ribeiro/Reuters

game or send on the missing goal threat in the shape of Van Persie. It was a question that was not immediately answered because shortly after Danny Welbeck had wasted some excellent right wing work by Valencia by controlling the cross with his hand, the lights went out with 57 minutes played. Seven minutes after the restart following the blackout, the Dutchman appeared for the ineective Welbeck. With Rio Ferdinand on for Evans and Rafael da Silvas introduction allowing Valencia to move back to the right wing, United were much more like their normal selves, and when Rooney spotted the Braga goalkeeper o his line 10 minutes from the end and found Van Persie, the equaliser was soon delivered, quickly followed by the winner when Rooney was tripped in the box. Javier Hernndez saw a shot blocked and Rooney was impeded as he went for the rebound. He took the penalty himself, after missing one at the weekend, and calmly ensured his sides progression. Hernndez added the third after a scramble in injury time.

Tonights Europa League

Tottenham Hotspur v Maribor
Kick-off 8.05pm, ITV4

Wilshere admits to serious doubts during lay-o

was on the plane along with Fabricio Coloccini and Cheik Tiot, who are both likely to feature as they are suspended for Sundays Premier League xture against West Ham. Yohan Cabaye, who left the eld in the draw at Liverpool on Sunday with a tight hamstring, has also been included but James Perch (thigh) is facing up to a month on the sidelines and was left behind along with Steve Harper, Danny Simpson, Jons Gutirrez, Hatem Ben Arfa and Demba Ba.
Full squad Krul, Elliot; Santon, Ferguson, Tavernier, Coloccini, S Taylor, Williamson, Tiot, Bigirimana, Cabaye, Anita, Obertan, Sammy Ameobi, Marveaux, Amaltano, Abeid, Ciss, Shola Ameobi, Xisco.

Tottenham are unsure for how long they must cope without Mousa Dembl. Spurs hope the Belgian will return from a hip injury within two weeks but he may still require surgery that would rule him out for longer. The 15m signing rst incurred the problem when at Fulham last season and has not featured since suering a recurrence while playing against Scotland on 16 October. The midelder is one of several absentees. Sandro, who limped o in Saturdays defeat by Wigan, is not available but could be t to face Manchester City on Sunday. The France goalkeeper Hugo Lloris will start as Tottenham again eld a strong line-up.
Provisional squad Lloris, Cudicini; Naughton, Walker, Caulker, Gallas, Dawson, Vertonghen; Livermore, Parrett, Huddlestone, Sigurdsson, Lennon, Bale, Mason, Carroll, Townsend, Falqu, Dempsey, Defoe.

David Hytner
Jack Wilshere has described the stress fracture and associated set-backs which kept him out of action for nearly 17 moralesapping months as heart-breaking, conceding he did not know if he would return from injury as the same player, the one who had come to be viewed in some quarters as the saviour of English football. Its dicult for any player, but especially one like me, Wilshere said. I was 19 and just breaking into the footballing world. Id had a good season and was looking to push on. I dont think there was a point where I didnt think I was coming back. It was a serious injury but it wasnt a result of a bad tackle or anything. It just happened over time. It took time to heal and I had a few set-backs. But you question yourself as to whether you can come back to the level I was at before. Hopefully, I can get back to training well and get back to where I was. The Arsenal midelders comeback has appeared, at times, to have been trailed like one of Frank Sinatras; the player himself has admitted that you become a world-beater when you are injured.

Anzhi Makhachkala v Liverpool

Kick-off 5pm, ITV 4

Club Brugge v Newcastle United

Kick-off 6pm, ESPN

Xisco was among a 20-strong Newcastle party which arrived in Belgium ahead of this evenings tie. The Spaniard, who scored a hat-trick for the clubs Under-21s against Stoke City last month,

Brendan Rodgers will rotate his squad again for this afternoons tie in Moscow. Steven Gerrard, Luis Surez, Joe Allen, Nuri Sahin, Daniel Agger, Jos Reina, Glen Johnson, Raheem Sterling and Jos Enrique have not travelled as Liverpool play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Stephen Sama, Adam Morgan and Conor Coady have been called into the squad.
Provisional squad Jones; Wisdom, Carragher, Coates, Robinson, Shelvey, Henderson, Cole, Downing, Yesil, Assaidi, Gulacsi, Ward, Flanagan, Sama, Wilson, Coady, Suso, Morgan.

But although he, together with Arsenal and England fans, can thrill at his return to action, it is clear that a long road still lies ahead. In his three matches so far for Arsenal, he has been physically shattered. He was withdrawn after 67 minutes in the 1-0 win over Queens Park Rangers on the Saturday before last, when he said that he felt dead, while he ended his own participation early in this past Saturdays 2-1 defeat at Manchester United, when he mistimed a 69th minute tackle on Patrice Evra to incur a second yellow card. The challenge was clumsy and tired-looking, rather than malicious. When you see it in slow motion, it looks like a bad tackle, Wilshere said. But, honestly, I didnt mean to go for him. I just went for the ball. When the referee sent me o, I was shocked. But seeing it Jack Wilshere says he wants Arsenal to challenge for the Premier League after making his return from injury

again afterwards, I can see why he sent me o. Wilsheres personal journey has been marked by his fighting spirit and the realisation that nothing can be taken for granted. He has seen the light at the end of the tunnel and it feels blinding. Ive missed so much football and I need to train hard to get back to the level where I was, he said. I think I can do it. I feel better and better as the weeks go on. Its a long season so I need to take it easy a bit but Im looking forward to the future again now. Wilsheres attitude has not changed, from his work ethic and full-blooded commitment to his belief in what Arsenal can achieve in the future. He nds himself in a new-look mideld, having last played alongside Cesc Fbregas, Alex Song and Samir Nasri. Now, it is Mikel Arteta and Santi Cazorla. The objectives remain the same. The aim every season is to challenge for the top four and try to win a trophy, Wilshere said. Its no dierent this year. We know we need to get top four but, of course, we want to push on and see if we can get more. We want to challenge for the Premier League.

44

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

Football Champions League

Moses digs Chelsea out of a hole with late winner

Dominic Field Stamford Bridge
Chelsea 3
Torres 6, Oscar 40, Moses 90

Shakhtar D 2
Willian 9 47

Chelseas style may have shifted but the sense of destiny they harnessed in this competition last term remains very much intact. This game had edged beyond the allocated period of added time at the end, the holders grip on the trophy apparently loosened, when the substitute Victor Moses rose unchallenged to nod in Juan Matas corner and wrest back some measure of control in the group. Roberto Di Matteo can breathe again. Mosess impact felt all the more staggering given it was so unlikely. Shakhtar Donetsk had revelled here like visitors rarely do, their amboyance extending the holders to their limits, but they were still defeated at the last. Juventuss dismissal of Nordsjaelland in Turin, the Italians rst win in Group E, feels less signicant as a result. Chelsea are joint top of the group and, should they avoid defeat to Juve in a fortnight, destiny will remain in their own hands. Shakhtar had arrived here without a competitive win on English soil but with their recently and lavishly forged reputation preceding them these days. Not long ago it would have felt inconceivable for one of the Premier Leagues elite, and the reigning European champions to boot, to have conceded they would need the perfect game to eclipse an emerging team from the far-ung Ukraine. But Mircea Lucescus side are imposing, all uid attack and menacing intent, with their Brazilian number irrepressible. The decision to rest a rusty John Terry, his domestic ban having apparently left him blunt, felt bold, particularly in the absence of the injured Ashley Cole. Shakhtar were a blur of tangerine shirts pouring through their hosts at times. This felt an even more torrid experience for Ryan Bertrand than his debut in this competition in Munich last May, the rata-tat moves that bypassed those in the home backline summoned at breathtaking pace. Fernandinhos dart to the byline, away from Ramires and Bertrand, and astute pull-back to be dispatched by Willian for Shakhtars equaliser confirmed their attacking quality. The subsequent exchange between Brazilians, involving Alex Teixeira, Fernandinho and Luiz Adriano and culminating in a zzed shot from the rst that skimmed beyond Petr Cechs far post, deserved better. Yet the home side had their own Brazilian to savour, and their opponents own defensive vulnerabilities to exploit. Andriy Pyatov endured a dismal evening here, his panicked attempt to clear early

on from Yaroslav Rakitskiys unhelpful back-pass deected into the net by Fernando Torress lunge. That was the Spaniards 100th goal in English football and hinted that an evening which had begun with him receiving the golden boot from Euro 2012, from Kerry Dixon, might end in similar satisfaction. Yet it was Oscar who truly illuminated the Londoners. Pyatov had grown warier after the early error, and might have been content with his seemingly decisive header to clear Matas optimistic cross at a Chelsea counterattack five minutes from the break. The ball flew to Oscar, a distant figure emerging from the centre circle, but the youngster swiftly spied the goalkeepers momentum had carried him further out of his box. The nish, conjured from 40 yards, arced gloriously over the Ukrainian and in. Oscars goals against Juventus here in September had felt sparkling. This was merely magical. It was also utterly in keeping with the helter-skelter nature of the contest, both teams so forward thinking that any semblance of defence felt like an afterthought. Chelsea might once have thought of containment with their lead re-established by the break, the signicance of emerging victorious from this contest clear, though
Chelsea 4-2-3-1 Cech; Ivanovic, David Luiz, Cahill, Bertrand; Ramires, Mikel; Mata, Oscar (Moses, 81), Hazard; Torres (Sturridge, 90). Subs not used Turnbull, Terry, Azpilicueta, Marin, Romeu. Shakhtar Donetsk 4-2-3-1 Pyatov; Srna, Kucher, Rakitskiy, Rat; Fernandinho, Hubschman; Teixeira (Ilsinho, 79), Mkitaryan, Willian; Adriano. Subs not used Kanibolotskiy, Shevchuk, Chygrynskiy, Stepanenko, Douglas Costa, Eduardo. Referee CV Carballo (Sp)

neither side seemed capable of spoiling tactics. The second period had barely begun when Willian, Fernandinho and the marauding Croat Darijo Srna sliced through their hosts left ank yet again and Willian, courted by the Londoners in January, hauled his side level yet again. The woodwork was left quivering as Razvan Rat belted a half-volley from distance that curled on to the outside of the post as Cech scuttled vainly across. This was not quite the monopoly of possession that Barcelona enjoyed here in the spring, but few teams have been able to shred Chelsea this impressively at home in recent years. There was relief to be had that the holders could at least inict wounds of their own when they sprung forward, but the Spanish official waved away vehement appeals for a penalty as Srna clumsily checked Ramiress dart into the penalty box, and Mikel John Obi volleyed just wide. That prompted anguished anxiety, the home sides prospects apparently damaged with each miss, before Mosess wonderfully timely intervention. This is a new Chelsea team, but the old spirit remains.

Terry takes watching brief over comedy defending

Blues survive controversial decision to leave captain on the bench but only just, reports Richard Williams

Chelsea took an early lead last night thanks to a stroke of good fortune and then, with John Terry looking on from the bench, gave it away almost immediately after an episode of the sort of comedy defending that has been a feature of their performances in recent weeks. Jos Mourinho, with his obsessive attention to shape and positioning, would have been having kittens when Willian nullied Fernando Torress opportunistic opener after a clever combination between Dario Srna and Fernandinho had left Chelseas left ank in tatters for neither the rst nor the last time. Here was the sort of performance at the back that had led to the concession of seven goals to Manchester United in Chelseas previous two xtures, on both occasions without the benet of Terrys presence, and now means only ve clean sheets in 17 matches this season. Maybe, along with the wonderful footballing eloquence of their new three-man mideld, this is all part of a daring masterplan in which the creation of a more likeable Chelsea takes priority over results.

Ramshackle defending was certainly not a part of their make-up during the Mourinho era, when they could make the defenders of Stalingrad look like marshmallows but had diculty making themselves loved outside west London. Thanks to injury and misadventure, in the form of an ankle injury and a fourmatch suspension for racially insulting Anton Ferdinand, Terry had started only nine of the 16 matches played by Chelsea before last night. Citing his captains lack of match tness after a four-match suspension broken only by his appearance in the rst match against Shakhtar Donetsk, Roberto Di Matteo left him on the bench for the return meeting with the Ukrainian champions, although it may have been in his mind that Terry was partnering David Luiz when the team lost 2-1 in the Donbass Arena a fortnight ago. We need everybody to be on top of their game tonight, Di Matteo said of his decision to omit Terry from his starting XI. The players who are playing are internationals, so Im not gambling. John Terry is an important player for us and will con-

tinue to be important for us. We need to have a good balance when were attacking, we need to be aware of Shakhtars threat and not let them counter-attack. Theres only one England captain, the occupants of the Matthew Harding Stand sang as Terry warmed up in the minutes before half-time. Not many of them would have agreed with Di Matteos decision to leave Terry, even a Terry badly short of match fitness, on the bench. Time and again David Luiz and the England hopeful Ryan Bertrand, deputising for Ashley Cole, were dismantled by Luiz Adriano, Fernandinho and the overlapping Srna.

The Brazilians took over as they always threatened to do on a night when seven of them started the match

But then, just before half-time, came Oscars marvellous goal, the Brazilian taking a touch to control a headed clearance from Andriy Pyatov, the Shakhtar goalkeeper, before unleashing a shot from 40 yards that ew o the outside of his right foot and dipped under the crossbar. The Brazilians had taken over, as they always threatened to do on a night when seven of them started the match, three for Chelsea and four for the visitors, with another three waiting on the Shakhtar bench. At times it looked as though the side with the greater number of Brazilians on the pitch would be bound to win, although some of David Luizs rampaging runs deep into the Shakhtar half were more music-hall than Maracana. Although Torres opened the scoring with his 100th goal in English football, the Spanish internationals lack of basic control was often a painful sight. Before the kick-o Kerry Dixon, a Stamford Bridge centre-forward of an earlier generation, with 193 goals for the club to his name, had presented him with the Golden Boot award for top scorer at Euro 2012.

The Guardian | Thursday 8 November 2012

45

Weather&Crossword
Weather forecast
UK and Ireland Noon
Shetland Islands
8 1012 10 1008
Temperature () X Wind (mph) X Sunny Sunny intervals Mostly cloudy Overcast/dull Showers Heavy showers Light rain Rain

Summary
N Isles It will be rather cloudy with some light scattered showers throughout the day. Breezy over Orkney, but gentle winds in Shetland. Max temp 6-9C (43-48F). Tonight, heavy rain. Min temp 4-7C (39-45F). NW England, W Isles Breezy and largely cloudy with a few spots of rain or drizzle, but turning brighter during the afternoon. Moderate northwesterly winds. Max temp 7-10C (45-50F). Tonight, rain, heavy at times. Min temp 4-7C (39-45F). Northern Ireland, Ireland Early drizzle in the north will ease away to leave sunny spells, but still the chance of an odd shower. Moderate westerly winds. Max temp 9-12C (48-54F). Tonight, rain, heavy at times. Min temp 6-9C (43-48F). NE Scotland, SW Scotland, NW England, Wales, W Midlands Lengthy spells of sunshine with the odd light scattered shower. Moderate westerly winds, but breezier along coastal areas in the morning. Max temp 10-13C (50-55F). Tonight, a few spots of rain. Min temp 4-7C (39-45F). SE Scotland, NE England, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, E Midlands, E Anglia, London, SE England, Cent S England, SW England A predominantly dry day with long spells of sunshine and some patchy cloud. Moderate westerly winds, but freshening in westernmost areas. Max temp 11-14C (52-57F). Tonight, dry with clear spells. Min temp 2-5C (36-41F). Channel Is It will be mostly cloudy to start, but becoming brighter with sunny spells later on. A few scattered showers too. Gentle westerly winds. Max temp 10-13C (50-55F). Tonight, clear spells. Dry. Min temp 6-9C (43-48F).

1016

11

Sleet

Sleet showers

Moderate

Chelseas Oscar, left, celebrates with Fernando Torres and Ramires after his stunning goal in the home sides 3-2 win against Shakhtar Donetsk Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

10
Moderate

11

1020

11
35 30 25 20 15

Channel Islands
13

13

10 5 0 -5

Slight

-10 -15

UK and Ireland Five day forecast

Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday

Atlantic front Noon today

1008 1000
LR

1000
LP

992

1008 1016 1024 1024

Cold front Warm front Occluded front Trough

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Low R moves east and deepens slightly. Low P lls.

Around the world

C F Weather Ajaccio Algiers Amsdam Athens Auckland B Aires Bangkok Barcelona Beijing Belgrade Berlin Bordeaux Boston Brussels Budapest Chagen Cairo 18 19 11 21 14 31 35 16 14 11 11 12 4 10 9 8 26 64 66 52 70 57 88 95 61 57 52 52 54 39 50 48 46 79 Sunny Cloudy Cloudy Sunny Showers Sunny Fair Sunny Sunny Fair Rain Sunny Fair Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cape Town 23 Chicago 6 Christrch 12 Corfu 19 Dakar 30 Denver 15 Dhaka 27 Dublin 10 Faro 19 Florence 16 Frankfurt 9 Funchal 19 Geneva 10 Gibraltar 17 H Kong 26 Harare 32 Helsinki 2 Innsbruck 6 73 43 54 66 86 59 81 50 66 61 48 66 50 63 79 90 36 43 Sunny Cloudy Sunny Cloudy Fair Sunny Fair Fair Rain Sunny Rain Cloudy Sunny Rain Sunny Sunny Cloudy Cloudy Istanbul Joburg Kmandu Kabul Karachi Kingston L Angeles Larnaca Lima Lisbon London Madrid Majorca Malaga Malta Melbrne Mexico C Miami 15 26 22 19 32 30 26 25 19 10 9 10 16 16 23 17 18 26 59 79 72 66 90 86 79 77 66 50 48 50 61 61 73 63 64 79 Showers Sunny Sunny Sunny Fair Fair Fair Sunny Cloudy Rain Cloudy Cloudy Sunny Rain Cloudy Fair Fair Cloudy Milan Mombasa Montreal Moscow Mumbai Munich N Orleans Nairobi Naples New Delhi New York Nice Oporto Oslo Paris Perth Prague Reykjavik 13 31 2 4 34 6 14 24 18 26 4 17 14 -1 11 22 7 3 55 88 36 39 93 43 57 75 64 79 39 63 57 30 52 72 45 37 Sunny Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Fair Rain Cloudy Cloudy Sunny Fair Cloudy Sunny Sunny Fair Cloudy Fair Showers Cloudy Rio de J Rome Shanghai Singapore St Pburg Stockhm Strasbg Sydney Tel Aviv 27 17 16 32 3 4 9 23 27 81 63 61 90 37 39 48 73 81 Fair Sunny Sunny Fair Rain Sunny Cloudy Cloudy Sunny Tenerife Tokyo Toronto Vancouvr Venice Vienna Warsaw Washton Wellton 25 19 1 9 13 10 6 7 12 77 66 34 48 55 50 43 45 54 Fair Cloudy Snow Rain Sunny Sunny Showers Cloudy Sunny

Sun & Moon

Sun rises Sun sets Moon rises Moon sets New Moon 0706 1621 0005 1331 13 November

Guardian cryptic crossword

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Across
1 Unfortunate way of spelling speshal (7) 5 Queen and stoic with unending prejudice (7) 9 Distribute grand brandies to one that carries some? (5,7,3) 10 With US lawyer about, sign for English play (5) 11 Carps residence in difculties (4,5) 12 Queen cat holding one page for the Sun (9) 14 Father keeps intermediary that eats shoots and leaves (5) 15 Bitter start to a cry from the heart (5) 16 Live outside right the same as live outside left? Not likely to last (9) 18 Queen with sacred thanksgiving keeping one very quiet (9) 21 Historian of the West in ower (5) 22 Displacement of animal organ: is it possible? (15) 23 Desert states currency in order? (7) 24 Fury makes us make a statement about some people (7)

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Group E
P W D L F A GD Pts

Shakhtar Chelsea Juventus Njaelland

4 2 1 1 7 5 2 7 4 2 1 1 10 6 4 7 4 1 3 0 8 4 4 6 4 0 1 3 1 11 -10 1

Results Chelsea 2 Juventus 2, Shakhtar 2 Nordsjaelland 0 Juventus 1 Shakhtar 1, Nordsjaelland 0 Chelsea 4 Shakhtar 2 Chelsea 1, Nordsjaelland 1 Juventus 1 Chelsea 3 Shakhtar 2, Juventus 4 Nordsjaelland 0 Remaining xtures 20 Nov Juventus v Chelsea, Nordsjaelland v Shakhtar 5 Dec Chelsea v Nordsjaelland, Shakhtar v Juventus

But the opening for his goal came only after he had failed to do justice to Oscars searching cross from the right and was given his opportunity when Pyatov threw the ball out to Razvan Rat, who turned it inside to Yaroslav Ratiskiy, who promptly presented the goalkeeper with a suicide pass that Torres read with ease and duly dispatched. When Willian scored his second goal of the night two minutes after half-time, it

was again a product of the sort of teamwork around the penalty area that Chelsea had been unable to match. He began the move on the left with a pass inside to Fernandinho, who transferred the ball to Srna on the right, and he was there to meet the resulting cross with a sharp ick of his jade-coloured boot inside the right-hand post. No wonder the 24-year-old Willian Borges da Silva is coveted by a number of English clubs, with Chelsea prominent among their number. A product of the youth scheme of Corinthians of So Paulo, he is in his sixth season in Dionetsk and has become a cross between a classic No10 and the modern false nine, drifting deep before gliding in to catch opponents unawares. Nevertheless, Chelsea were unfortunate not to be given a chance to take the lead for a third time when Ramires, racing into the area on to Eden Hazards pass, was denied a penalty after Srna took the back of his legs. And at the very last, their persistence gained its reward.

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No 25,788 set by Araucaria

3 Unable to escape from The Sound of Music? (9) 4 Gamble with broom? (5) 5 Queen, last one to go up with old aircraft (9) 6 Function of the man or the woman at the top? (5) 7 Supposed force in eastern front covered by ashy stu causing cricket problem (8,7) 8 Girl golfers place on rst of month? (7) 13 Bill with close to musical for basic pets (5,4) 14 Fire iron to confront whats kept straight (5,4) 15 A bogus journalist wishing he hadnt done it? (7) 17 Queen (English) to depend on gold (7) 19 Express view of piece with four sharps (5) 20 Soul of American imagery (5)
Solution No. 25,787

Down
Stuck? For help call 0906 751 0038 or text GUARDIANC followed by a space, the day and date the crossword appeared another space and the CLUE reference to 85010 (e.g GUARDIANC Monday12 Across1). Calls cost 77p per minute from a BT Landline. Calls from other networks may vary and mobiles will be considerably higher. Texts cost 50p per clue plus standard network charges. Service supplied by ATS. Call 0844 836 9769 for customer service (charged at local rate, 2p per min from a BT landline). Want more? Access over 4,000 archive puzzles at guardian.co.uk/crossword. Buy the Guardian Cryptic Setters series (4 books) for only 20 inc UK p&p (save 7.96). Visit guardianbooks.co.uk or call 0330 333 6846.

1 Ultra-orthodox head of college has a lot of stupidity to start with (7) 2 Ones own loo in which to return paper used (7,8)

R A T I O D E C I D E N D I

T O S U L DO U U S E O L A E U T A R E N C

O R T O I S O R C S U A L R S A E N T K NOW D E K WOO D S OU R L E S Z E A C E A RM R V U R A T E R I B A ON V E N I

E S M E A S H H P I T S Y C O E L O E N

H E N C T E I N T G E C R O R A D I E A L C E

L L A O R G G E I ON T S E S E T I R N E

Thursday 08.11.12

I know Ill look back and be proud to say I rode with Mark Cavendish, the greatest sprinter of all time
Exclusive extract from Bradley Wiggins autobiography, page 41

guardian.co.uk/sport

Chelsea 3 Shakhtar 2 Moses hits late winner to boost Blues Page 44

The miracle of Parkhead

Celtic on verge of qualifying for Champions League last 16 after epic victory over Spanish giants
Ewan Murray Celtic Park
Celtic 2
Wanyama 21, Watt 83

Barcelona 1
Messi 90

A day after Celtic ocially recognised the 125th anniversary of their inception, the class of 2012 delivered one of the nest European results in their history. Neil Lennons understrength team displayed wonderful tenacity and ruthlessness to see o Barcelona. In the midst of epic celebrations in Glasgows east end, the significance of this win in a Champions League context was almost forgotten. Celtic are now on the verge of the last 16. Barcelona hope arrived from Messi, who scored from close range in stoppage time. But Celtic could not be denied; with the timing seeming wholly appropriate. Before the match Celtic had to ensure the hope did not kill them, if such positive sentiment could ever precede a meeting with the best club side of the modern era, if not all time. Lennons team received legitimate praise for their showing in the Camp Nou a fortnight ago, where it took a stoppage time Jordi Alba goal to secure Barcelonas 100th Champions League win. Lennon had been keen to point out in the buildup to this game that Baras potency is not blunted when they play away from home. Regardless of the opposition, Celtic Park is an expectant venue on European nights. Yet Celtic had also suffered the misfortune of injuries to key players. As expected, Gary Hooper and Emilio Izaguirre sat out this match but there was surprise about the absence of the Celtic captain Scott Brown, who had been struck down by a virus. The visitors rst opportunity fell to the irrepressible Lionel Messi, who scooped over the crossbar from an Alba cross in the eighth minute. Generally, though, Lennon would have been content with Celtics opening to the game amid a typically rousing atmosphere; Wanyama was about to intensify that. As was the case in the match in Catalonia, a Charlie Mulgrew set play created sucient trouble in the Barcelona defence to force a Celtic goal. From Mulgrews corner, Wanyama bulleted a erce header past Victor Valds. The goal was tting reward for Wanyama, whose ne mideld play had earned Celtic rare possession in the opponents last third. The Kenyan was watched here by scouts from England, including Manchester United, a matter which will only boost speculation he will be coaxed from Glasgow before too long. Suddenly, Celtic almost looked cocky. Valds had to scarper to collect a low Adam Matthews pass, therefore stopping Georgios Samaras from doubling the Scottish champions advantage.

Victor Wanyama rises above the Barcelona defence to score Celtics opener Carl Recine/Action Images

Group G
P W D L F A GD Pts

Barcelona Celtic Benca Sp Moscow

4 4 4 4

3 2 1 1

0 1 1 0

1 1 2 3

8 6 3 6

5 5 4 9

4 1 -1 -3

9 7 4 3

Results Barcelona 3 Spartak Moscow 2, Celtic 0 Benca 0 Benca 0 Barcelona 2, Spartak Moscow 2 Celtic 3 Barcelona 2 Celtic 1, Spartak Moscow 2 Benca 1 Benca 2 Sp Moscow 0, Celtic 2 Barcelona 1 Remaining xtures 20 Nov Benca v Celtic, Sp Moscow v Barcelona 5 Dec Barcelona v Benca, Celtic v Sp Moscow

Baras attempts at a response, as intricate and patient as ever, found stern resistance among the Celtic back line. In Messis case, he clipped Fraser Forsters bar from 16 yards, moments before the Argentina forward played a teasing ball across goal which eluded his team-mates. Alexis Snchez was the next to threaten, with a shot which hit Forsters left-hand post; Dani Alves this time the creator. Celtic, though, managed to survive until the brief respite aorded by the half-time whistle. Barcelona intensified their efforts at claiming an equaliser after the interval. Messi tested Forster with a curling eort from 18 yards before the Celtic goalkeeper produced a fine double save to deny Alexis. By the hour mark, Barcelona were territorially dominant without their hosts looking overly perturbed or panicked.

That, of course, was to Celtics enormous credit given the savaging beatings Bara have dished out to teams in similar scenarios. Celtic even came close to another goal after Mulgrew capitalised on indecision in the Bara defence. The despairing eorts of Marc Bartra prevented the Celtic man from scoring. A glimpse at spare resource offered the La Liga team hope. Tito Vilanova had the ability to bring on David Villa as he duly did with 25 minutes to play and Cesc Fbregas. Lennon, by contrast, had four youngsters among his six outfield substitutes. Still, Vilanova was lucky his team werent reduced to 10 men as early as the 68th minute. Alex Song, already on a booking, clattered through the back of Miku, with the referee showing notable generosity to the former Arsenal man.

Forsters nest save of the night was still to come. The England squad member produced a wonderful, diving one-handed stop to frustrate Messi again. Song, unsurprisingly, was subsequently withdrawn for Fbregas. This time, it was Celtic who were to nish with glory. Straight from a Forster kick out, Xavi clean missed his attempt at playing the ball back into the Celtic half. The 18-year-old Tony Watt, on as a substitute, raced through on goal and lashed beyond Valds.
Celtic 4-4-1-1 Forster; Lustig (Watt, 72), Ambrose, Wilson, Matthews; Commons, Ledley, Wanyama, Mulgrew; Miku; Samaras (Kayal, 79). Subs not used Zaluska, McCourt, Herron, Fraser, McGeouch. Barcelona 4-3-3 Valds; Alves, Bartra (Piqu, 71), Mascherano, Alba; Xavi, Song (Fbregas, 71), Iniesta; Messi, Snchez (Villa, 67), Pedro. Subs not used Pinto, Montoya, Dos Santos, Tello. Referee B Kuipers (Neth)

Swann may miss rst Test after returning home to be with ill daughter
Mike Selvey Ahmedabad
With the first Test match against India just a week away, Graeme Swann has returned to England because of illness to his young daughter. The England management say that he is expected to return to Ahmedabad, where the match begins on 15 November, in time to be considered for the nal XI. However the urgent nature of his journey home may suggest that this is unlikely. Swanns departure, and the necessary doubt about a return, means yet more disruption to Englands preparations for what is generally considered to be the most demanding of all tours. Already injuries to two key bowlers, Steve Finn and Stuart Broad, have placed some doubt on their tness in time for the rst Test. Neither was considered for the final warm-up match in Ahmedabad and, if they are to play in the Test, would do so with no immediate match practice behind them. Beyond that match, the batsman Ian Bell is also to return home, for the birth of his rst child, missing the second Test in the process. Things can rarely be expected to run smoothly for teams touring India but this has already become a real problem. England will be rethinking their plans and how best to adjust. The chances are that all of Broad, Finn and Swann would have been members of a four-man attack. Swann, in addition to his o-spin bowling which has made him Graeme Swanns departure is a fresh disruption to Englands plans, after the injuries to Stuart Broad and Steve Finn one of the leading slow bowlers in the world for the past few years, has been an important element in the close catching, standing at second slip. Even readjustments in this area take time, particularly with the departure of Andrew Strauss at rst slip. Alastair Cook will take over that role but nding a reliable second slip, not least when Jimmy Anderson, who does do the job sometimes, is bowling will not be easy. In bowling terms , Swanns replacement is straightforward enough, with Monty Panesar having bowled well in the second warm-up match last week and, in the view of many, outbowling Swann on the tours against Pakistan in the UAE and in Sri Lanka earlier in the year. The pace bowling is a more complex issue. Either Tim Bresnan, whose batting is an extra consideration, or Graham Onions would replace Broad if necessary. An alternative to Finn, though, would not be so easy. England were relying on his extra pace to rue India. The arrival yesterday of Stuart Meaker, considered by some to be the fastest bowler in England, has extra significance. He could easily jump into a Test spot if Finn fails to make it. Goochs spin lesson, page 40