2012.proceedings - Exploring Potential For Low Carbon Society in Vietnam

Workshop Proceedings Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam
May 31, 2012
Grand Plaza Hotel, Hanoi
Co-organized by Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE) in the Government of Vietnam, and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Kyoto University, and International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet) Secretariat/Institute of Global Environment Strategies (IGES)
Proceedings Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam

Preface
Vietnam is among the countries most seriously affected by climate change. The government has developed the National Climate Change Strategy to encourage all sectors to deal with the challenges. The government is preparing the Green Growth Strategy to restructure the economy to overcome the economic crisis as well as to support the implementation of National Climate Change Strategy. The efforts of the Government of Vietnam have received support from international communities, both in term of financial and knowledge resources.
A Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam was organized by the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE) with support of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Kyoto University, and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) at the Grand Plaza Hotel, Hanoi, on May 31, 2012. The workshop aimed to introduce the LCS methodology developed by the AIM team in Japan and increasingly applied in Asian countries; and also discussed a suitable approach for an LCS study in Vietnam. With the participation of key stakeholders from relevant areas, this workshop represented a valuable opportunity to promote information-sharing and cooperation among agencies working on or are interested in low carbon initiatives.
NGUYEN VAN TAI Director General, Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE) in the Government of Vietnam
Proceedings Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam Contents
Preface i 1 2 3 3-1 3-2 Agenda 1 Summary of the workshop 2 Compilation of Speakers Presentation: English National Strategy on Climate Change by Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and climate change (DMHCC) in MONRE Vietnam Green Growth Strategy by Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources and Environment in MPI 18 3-3 3-4 A Low Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in Vietnam by ISPONRE in MONRE, IMHEN, Water Resources University, Kyoto University, NIES, and JICA 30 Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)by Secretariat of LCSR-Net/IGES 55 3-5 4 4-1 4-2 Panel Discussion: Discussion points 63 Compilation of Speakers Presentation: Vietnamese National Strategy on Climate Change by DMHCC in MONRE 64 A Low Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in Vietnam by ISPONRE in MONRE, IMHEN, Water Resources University, Kyoto University, NIES, and JICA 72 4-3 Panel Discussion: Discussion points 97 Appendix I II III IV Photos of the workshop 98 10
List of distributed documents at the workshop 100 Participants list 101 Overview of AIM Training Workshop in Hanoi 105
Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Vietnam

Grand Plaza hotel, Hanoi, May 31, 2012
Agenda
8:00-8:30 8:30-8:50 Registration Opening remarks 8:50-9:20 9:20-9:50 Dr. Nguyen The Chinh, Deputy General Director of ISPONRE in MONRE Mr. Akira Shimizu, Senior Representative of the JICA Vietnam office
National Strategy on Climate Change Mr. Truong Duc Tri, Deputy Director of DMHCC in MONRE Vietnam Green Growth Strategy Ms. Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, officer of Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources and Environment in MPI
9:50-10:30 10:30-10:50 10:50-11:20 11:20-12:00
A Low Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in Vietnam Dr. Nguyen Tung Lam, Head, Department of Integrated Research, ISPONRE in MONRE Coffee Break Low Carbon Asia Research Net Work Dr. Shuzo NIshioka, Secretary General of LCSR-Net/IGES Panel Discussion Panelist Dr. Nguyen The Chinh, Deputy General Director of ISPONRE in MONRE Ms. Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, officer of Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources and Environment in MPI Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka, Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University Dr. Shuzo NIshioka, Secretary General of LCSR-Net/IGES Mr. Hiroshi Tsujihara, a JICA Expert from the Ministry of the Environment Dr. Junichi Fujino, Senior Researcher, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, NIES 3 discussion points: 1. What kind of research do you need to create practical LCS policy based on long-term perspectives? 2. What kind of research can you provide for LCS policy making? 3. What are our actions now?
Moderator
12:00
Meeting Adjourned
Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam Summary

Background
The Government of Vietnam, Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE) of the Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE) organized the workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam on May 31, 2012 at the Gland Plaza Hotel, Hanoi. It was implemented with the support of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Kyoto University, Low carbon Society Research Network (LCS-RNet) Secretariat, and Institute of Global Environmental Strategies (IGES). 70 people, from relevant government officials, such as those from Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (DMHCC), Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), and ISPONRE of MONRE; Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources and Environment (DSENRD); Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM); Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD); to academics, NGOs, and donor agencies participated in the workshop.
Objectives
The objective of the Workshop was to identify the methodologies for sustainable Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Vietnam and exchange opinions to explore their usefulness and associated challenges. It also aimed to promote information sharing and cooperation among agencies which are working on or interested in low carbon initiatives. The content of the workshop comprised four presentations: (1) An overview of National Climate Change Strategy by DMHCC, (2) Green Growth Strategy in Vietnam by MPI, (3) Introduction of the outcomes of the LCS scenario studies towards 2030 in Vietnam, and (4) Introduction of Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) by LCSR-Net Secretariat/IGES, with a panel discussion being conducted following these presentations. Dr. Nguyen The Chinh, Deputy General Director of ISPONRE, played a prominent role as the coordinator and facilitator of the workshop.
Opening remarks
The representatives from both Vietnam and Japan delivered opening remarks. Dr. Nguyen The Chinh delivered his speech on behalf of the Vietnam team. He expressed his great sense of honour and pleasure in welcoming all participants to the workshop. He emphasized the importance of examining how to reduce GHG emissions and energy consumption, and ways of managing energy, waste, and land, in addition to improving economic growth, and addressing the global economic
crisis. He pointed out that addressing these challenges was fundamental to the promotion of a sustainable low carbon economy in Vietnam. Following the opening remarks by Dr. Nguyen The Chinh, Mr. Akira Shimizu, representative of the JICA Vietnam office, delivered the opening address on behalf of the Japanese delegation. He commended the initiative of the Government of Vietnam, especially its National Climate Change Strategy and Green Growth Strategy. He emphasised the importance of mainstreaming the concept of low carbon societies into Vietnams development strategies. He expressed the hope that the workshop would help in efforts towards capacity development for Vietnam for the effective planning and implementation of these initiatives.
National Climate Change Strategy and Green Growth Strategy

Current Policy in Vietnam concerning Climate Change and Green Growth was reported on during the workshop. In Vietnam, there are two relevant policies which aim to promote low carbon society. The first is the National Strategy on Climate Change, approved by the Prime Minister under Decision No. 2139 dated December 5, 2011. In line with this policy, Vietnam established the National Committee on Climate Change under Prime Minister Decision No. 43 dated January 9, 2012. The Prime Minister appointed MONRE to hold jurisdiction over the National Strategy on Climate Change. The other relevant policy is the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy. The formulation of the Strategy was also suggested by the Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister appointed the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) to prepare the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy in order to support the implementation of the National Climate Change Policy. The Prime Minister issued notice that low carbon growth is part of the Green Growth Strategy under the 38/TB-VPCP March 3, 2011. MPI has carried out the adjustment necessary for the approval of their draft on Green Growth in Vietnam. Both the National Climate Change Strategy and Green Growth Strategy aim to strengthen Vietnams sustainable socio-economic development through appropriate natural resource management in line with sound science and economic analysis; improvement of industrial processes; development and dissemination of clean energy and renewables; and improvement of relevant governance systems, by means of the development and sharing of their vision for sustainable development towards 2050. The significant difference between National Strategy of Climate Change and Green Growth Strategy is that National Strategy on Climate Change is driven by the necessity to respond to the projected impacts of sea-level rise and the frequency of natural disasters. The objectives of GHG mitigation include contributing to the protection of global climate systems. On the other hand, the objectives of Green Growth Strategies emphasize the restructuring of economies and increasing
competitiveness through efficient use of resources and addressing environmental degradation. Socio-economic strategies, such as the improvement of industrial processes to lower GHG emissions, would be necessary for low carbon economic development under the concept of Green Growth. Mr. Mr. Luong Quang Huy, Official of Department of Meteorology, Hydrometeorology and Climate Change (DMHCC), MONRE, on behalf of Truong Duc Tri, Deputy Director of Department of DMHCC in MONRE, presented the overview of National Strategy on Climate Change, while Ms. Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, officer of Department of Science, Education, Natural Resources and Environment in MPI, introduced their draft document, Vietnam Green Growth Strategy. Nguyen The Chinh offered comments to the effect that Vietnam faces a number of challenges to address both Green Growth Strategies and climate change strategies, such as developing its GDP and protecting and making use of its natural resources. He raised the question of Vietnams choices for low carbon growth while addressing poverty reduction. He then emphasized the necessity of finding the trade-offs and co-benefits. He also pointed out the importance of having and sharing clear future scenarios for Vietnam and the costs and benefits of investments for socio-economic development. He expressed his expectations that the LCS scenario studies should use the Asia-Pacific Integrated Motel (AIM) as one of the key methodologies to address and evaluate both National Climate Change Strategies and Green Growth Strategies.
A Low Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in Vietnam

Dr. Nguyen Tung Lam, Head, Department of Integrated Research, ISPONRE presented the outcomes of a study A Low Carbon Society Development Towards 2030 in Vietnam. This is an LCS scenario study for Vietnam conducted collaboratively between ISPONRE; the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN); the Water Resources University in Vietnam; Kyoto University; NIES; and JICA. AIM is a group of computer models developed by a team composed of members from NIES, Kyoto University, and several research institutes in the Asia-Pacific region. It is the first set of models focused on the Asian region, initially undertaken in 1990. It aims to design and assess policy options for sustainable LCS in the Asia-Pacific region and to stabilize the global climate depicting the feasible and robust mid-to long-term low carbon growth pathways in line with collaborative research outcomes with local researchers and policy makers in Asia, including Vietnam. A Low Carbon Society Development Towards 2030 in Vietnam is an updated study from the preliminary study on Sustainable Low Carbon Development Towards 2030 in Vietnam which was implemented by an AIM Project Team in February 2010. It estimates GHG emissions and mitigations in the energy sector and the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land use sectors (AFOLU), outlining
Vietnams socio-economic scenarios for 2030. According to the study, GHG emissions will increase four fold from 151Mt CO2 in 2005 to 601 Mt in 2030 under a BaU scenario. On the other hand, the study estimated that, if Vietnam adopted the 2030CM scenario, it would reduce GHG emissions by 36% by 2030 when compared with 2030BaU estimates. Emission intensity would be reduced by 20%. The study also analysed Vietnams potential to reduce GHG emissions in AFOLU and energy sectors respectively and concluded that GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors can be decreased by 57% with 2030CM as compared with 2030BaU levels. Midseason drainage and conservation of existing forests protected as reserves are expected to hold the largest mitigation potential in these sectors. Furthermore, about 38% of GHG emissions in the energy sector can be reduced in 2030CM as compared with 2030BaU levels. Fuel shift and energy efficiency are projected to be the largest countermeasures in this sector. After the presentation, Dr. Nguyen The Chinh stated his expectation that the AIM models would be the key methodologies for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), and LCS scenario study would be highly significant for the monitoring of Vietnams National Climate Change Strategies, as well as the draft of Green Growth Strategies. He also expressed an expectation that reliable data for Vietnam would be made available through the study.
Asia Low Carbon Research Network (LoCARNet)

Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Secretary General of LCS-RNet/IGES presented an overview of the Low Carbon Asia Research Network, the so-called LoCARNet. He explained that it aimed to support research communities in order to promote research which would contribute to policy-making processes towards low-carbon growth, by enabling a sufficient amount of dialogue between scientists and policy-makers. He expressed his expectation that these research communities will come to play an important role in providing their knowledge of the platform among stakeholders, such as policy-makers of both central and local governments, private sector entities, donors, researchers and various international organizations. He further hopes that these stakeholders should conduct exchange of knowledge for effective national and local development plans, policy formulation, and infrastructure investment, in line with an analysis which gives full consideration to the circumstances of each countrys specific needs.
Panel Discussion
A panel discussion was facilitated by Dr. Junichi Fujino, Senior Researcher, Center for Social and Environmental System Research of NIES. He raised three discussion points: 1. What kind of research do you need to create practical LCS policy based on long-term perspectives? 2. What kind of research can you provide for LCS policy making?
3. What are our actions now? Dr. Nguyen The Chinh of ISPONRE, Ms. Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh officer of MPI, Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka of Kyoto University, Dr. Shuzo Nishioka of Secretary General of LCS-RNet/IGES, and Mr. Hiroshi Tsujihara, a JICA expert from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan participated as the panelists for the discussion, and also conducted two-way communication with the participants from the floor. During the panel discussion, participants discussed the necessity of research at both macro and micro levels which would assist consensus building among different stakeholders. The importance of such research was discussed in terms of the necessity to introduce sustainable economic structures and suitable technology options, which would bring about socio-economic benefits by reducing GHG emissions from Vietnam, and the corresponding requirement for financial support and capacity development in Vietnamese society. Firstly, Ms. Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh of the office of MPI responded to the questions raised by the discussion. She noted her experience in developing Green Growth Strategy from scratch. She mentioned her enormous difficulty in finding suitable researchers from a long list of those available, because, while their research appeared to engage with the topic of Green Growth Strategies, that they did not necessarily engage with the practical aspects of policy making. She pointed out that regular communication between policy-makers and researchers is important, and that this should be conducted in a timely, effective, and efficient manner. She also pointed out the difficulty in deciding the appropriate research topics for policy in a limited timeframe. As an officer engaged in national development planning, she expressed her preference that researchers conduct comprehensive macro level research. She identified the importance of research to analyse the issues on the ground, but at the same time she emphasized the necessity of harmonization of research between macro and micro levels. She also highlighted that harmonization was necessary between the various initiatives within the UN system, which was organizing a number of initiatives and strategies. Subsequently, Dr. Nguyen The Chinh of ISPONRE emphasized the necessity to stabilize the macro economy and shift it towards a green economy in order to achieve a sustainable low carbon society in Vietnam. He expressed his opinion that it was great a opportunity to attract donors who would contribute to the comprehensive implementation of Vietnams own climate change strategy and Green Growth Strategy. He pointed out the necessity of research mainly from three perspectives. Firstly, he spoke about the necessity of research which developed the model to respond to poverty reduction objectives and which analysed the need for balance while managing land, forest, and
agricultural products appropriately, and conducting activities towards low carbon development. He noted that Vietnam was an agricultural country, which had to conduct land management and forestry management appropriately. It was also, he said, important to improve the transport and energy sectors. While it was easy to identify their importance, it was difficult to find solutions which would encourage LCS, as there were a number of challenges, such as a restructuring of the economy and improvements towards poverty reduction. Secondly, he also called for research to identify clues for managing financial needs, including overall costs, and how much Official Development Assistance (ODA) Vietnam needed to borrow. Thirdly, he emphasized the necessity for research to address Vietnams energy options, while simultaneously taking into consideration a number of the challenges in the way of development. He noted that Vietnam should preferably familiarise themselves with Japanese management customs as regards to energy and the environment, in order to pursue Win-Win solutions for both Vietnam and Japan. From the floor, one of the researchers from CIEM responded to the 1st discussion point on three fronts. Firstly, he pointed out that we need to build the capacity of entire societies in order to develop LCS, and that it was important to elucidate the benefits to be obtained through LCS. Consequently, he expressed his conviction of the necessity to conduct two types of research - on both macro and micro levels, and including combinations of both such levels - owing to the different layers on which our society operates, and the need to endeavour towards collective efforts integrating these different layers. Secondly, he suggested that clarification of the theme and topic was important for capacity development programs. He also expressed the necessity of research to conduct market-driven schemes appropriately, including the response to the development of market regulation for green growth. Thirdly, he offered his comments regarding LoCARNet. He pointed out that the knowledge-sharing facilitated by LoCARNet should extend to regions other than Asia, and that this would enhance collaboration between researchers and policy makers. A participant from DMHCC then commented on the LCS Scenario Study focused on Vietnam, which was presented by Dr. Nguyen Tung Lam of ISPONRE. He pointed out the necessity of further research which indicated the appropriate technologies and their transfer, given that the LCS Scenario Study recommended technical options and these necessitated technical solutions. He also pointed out that Vietnam needs to achieve its GHG emission reduction targets by implementing its climate change strategies and green growth strategies effectively. Mr. Hiroshi Tsujihara, a JICA Expert from the Ministry of the Environment, noted that Vietnam had a sizable chance to achieve LCS through appropriate decision-making and development planning. Japan faces big challenges to restructure its energy management system to shift from the
carbon-intensive conditions under the current governance structure and a number of existing infrastructures. He expressed his hope that the Vietnamese government carry out design roadmapping towards low carbon society based on sound scientific and economic analysis. On the basis of this design and roadmap, the Vietnamese government should take actions. He noted that AIM may prove to be helpful in considering the direction Vietnam should take towards achieving sustainable LCS. Mr. Naoki Mori, JICA expert, Climate Change Program Advisor for the Support Program to Respond to Climate Change in JICA Vietnam Office, wanted to know how AIM supported the Green Growth Strategies in Vietnam in its preparation and implementation phases, and what support AIM could provide for NAMA. Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka of Kyoto University described the role of AIM models. He explained that AIM was a set of integration tools, and its development and implementation involved interaction between researchers and policy makers. In response to the questions from Mr. Mori, he stated that AIM helps to facilitate discussion and propose cost-effective policy options while clarifying their feasibility. He proposed collaboration among different stakeholders, as the use of AIM required continuous analysis and discussion among policy makers, researchers, and other stakeholders in line with the outcomes. The appropriateness of the assumptions used in the scenarios themselves also necessitates discussion among the Vietnamese. He noted that AIM was suitable to discuss long-term strategies and that the integrated assessment was the main tool for that purpose. However, he emphasized that iterative discussions had to be conducted among Vietnamese, and the follow-up activities were to be undertaken by researchers and policy makers in Vietnam itself. Prof. Matsuoka also responded to the question about the necessity of research from both macro and micro levels. AIM tries to show the evidence at both using macroeconomic CGE type models and the micro level technology bottom-up type models, including AIM/Enduse model. AIM also shows the consistency between macro and micro level analyses. Analysis using AIM would also throw up the long-term challenges in implementation of various options. Dr. Shuzo NIshioka responded to the comment on LoCARNet. He noted that there were a number of donors who were working on strategies for low carbon and green growth in Asia. He said it was necessary to carry out analyses of multiple aspects and issues simultaneously, in order to address these strategies, and that we therefore need to develop a practical collaborative network to address these concretely and efficiently. He also noted that LoCARNet should be managed by means of the development of autonomous management by the regional countries (e.g. rotation in hosting of the
meetings) in the next three years, even though IGES has served as the secretariat at the beginning. He emphasized that the concept of LoCARNet includes the enhancement of ownership among each stakeholder in Asia towards the LCS. Ms. Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh of MPI spoke about the necessity to address gender issues in drafting a Green Growth Strategy document. She also pointed out the need for coordination among the different agencies. On the question of financial needs, she made the point that the Green Growth Strategy would need to be made more easily implementable, as Vietnam had to work with the concrete Action Plan in terms of specific and comprehensive activities. Furthermore, she underlined the necessity to develop the market mechanisms for economic reform and technological investment, and their evolution. Promotion of green economy would mobilize the funds available for technology investment and transfer - open market mechanisms are important for green growth. She also noted the difficulty in responding to a number of questions from the stakeholders who asked about the costs to be undergone, because Vietnam is yet to establish specific targets and clear implementation strategies for green growth. She also emphasized that Vietnam needed to address climate change adaptation as a matter of high priority, while addressing the question of low carbon society for Vietnams comprehensive sustainable development. As regards the necessity for research, she responded that MPI would give priority to the macro level research, as it needs to plan and implement appropriate development strategies. She also highlighted the necessity of research to make an appropriate legal framework in Vietnam. In answering a question from Mr. Mori, she expressed her wish that the outputs from the AIM model would be important to monitor Vietnams Green Growth Strategy, and that she would like to explore how to make use of them. She noted that there were other similar research programmes and suggested that there was a need to understand and compare their respective approaches. She also suggested that researchers ought to discuss and review the results of different LCS studies among themselves. She emphasized the necessity to avoid duplication of efforts.
Concluding remarks
For the final comment of the panel discussion and the conclusion of the workshop, Dr. Nguyen The Chinh of ISPONRE agreed with the comment of the researcher from CIEM, pointing out the importance of enhancing awareness-building on an overall societal level. He also agreed that the market economic mechanisms were fundamental to the promotion of green growth in Vietnam. For the question of financial investment, he suggested to examine the lessons learnt from past successes and failures, including the experience in developing business opportunities through trade between Japan and Vietnam. He concluded by emphasising the necessity for collaborative work among different stakeholders towards building a sustainable LCS.
3. Compilation of Speakers Presentation English
Truong Duc Tri, Deputy Director of DMHCC in MONRE
MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENT
NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Presenter: Trng c Tr Deputy director, Department of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment
Content
1. General information 2. Main content of National Strategy on Climate Change
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1. General information
Viet Nam, average temperature has risen about 0.5 to 0.7oC within 50 years, Sea lever has risen about 20cm; El Nino, La Nina phenomena impact increase strongly day by day; Calamities increase fiercely, especially storm, flood and drought;
1. General information(cont)
Scenario of climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam: - In the end of 21st century, our annual average temperature will increase about 2 - 3oC; - Total annual rainfall in rainy seasons will increase while rainfall in dry season decrease; - Sea level may rise from 75cm to 1m over the 1980-1999 period; - If sea level increase over 1m, about 10-12% of Viet Nam population will be affected and 10% GDP lost;
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Challenges: - Awareness of climate change is not enough; - The management system and policies are still weak and decentralized. - Research on climate change effect is still limited; - The socio-economic structure has not been ready to cope with climate change; - The economic sectors are yet cross-integrated. Moreover, during the economic growth, climate change has not been evaluated appropriately; - Development orientations of economic sectors is still using of natural resources.
Viet Nam actions - Approve National target program on climate change response (Decision No.158 dated December 2nd,2008 of Prime Minister) - Build and promulgate Viet Nam scenario of climate change and sea level rise ( June,2009), update result of the scenario (March, 2012) - Approve National Plan on climate change (Decision No.2139 dated December 5th,2011 of Prime Minister) - Establish National Committee on Climate Change (Decision 43 dated January 9th,2012 of Prime Minister) - From 2012, we start deploying models to cope with impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise. The coastal provinces are priority deployed especially provinces on the Mekong Delta .
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2. National Strategy on Climate change contents

POINTS OF VIEW:
Vietnam regards responding to climate change as a vital issue. The climate change response must be closely connected the sustainable
development, take advantage of opportunities to innovate in thinking of development, improve national competitiveness and power. Carry out actions of adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time, in which first period of adaptation is focused. The climate change response is responsibility of whole system. Viet Nam focuses on promoting internal force, takes full advantage of international cooperation mechanisms. Solutions of the response to climate change must be systematic, intergrated, interbranch, inter-regional, focused, in accordance with each stage and international regulations; Strategy on climate change has trans-century vision, it is the foundation for other strategies.
STRATEGIC TARGET:
Promote national capacity, carry out solutions of climate

change adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time, secure people's lives and property, aime at sustainable development.
Strenghthen human ability and natural system to

respond to climate change, develop the low-carbon economic in order to protect and improve quality of human life, guarantee the security and national sustainable development in the context of global climate change and actively protect the global climate system with international community.
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SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES :
Ensure food security, energy security, water security, poverty
reduction, gender equality, social security, public health, improving lives, protect natural resources in the context of climate change; The low-carbon economy, green growth become national mainstream; Enhance awareness, responsibility and ability of responding to climate change, take advantage of opportunities from climate change for socio-economic development, develop and expand friendly consumption style in accordance with the climate system. Positively contribute responding to climate change, strengthen international cooperation activities to effectively respond to climate change.
THE TASKS OF STRATEGIC : Adaption: 1. Actively respond to calamity and monitor climate
a) Early warning b) Reduce damage caused by calamity
2. Ensure food security and water resources

a) food security b) water resources security
3. Positively respond to sea level rise in accordance with vulnerable areas.
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THE TASKS OF STRATEGIC (cont): Adapt and mitigate greenhouse gas emission : 4. Protect forest, sustainable development of forest, increase absorption of greenhouse gas and biodiversity conservation Mitigate greenhouse gas emission 5. greenhouse gas emission mitigation contributes to protect global climate system
a) Develop renewable energy sources, new energy sources b) Economize and effectively use energy
Industrial processing and construction TransportationGiao thng vn ti
c) Agricuture d) Waste management
THE TASKS OF STRATEGIC (cont):
Interbranch :
6.

Strengthen the leading role of Government in responding to climate change

a) Adjust, cross-integrate climate change into strategies and plans b) Complete and strengthen institution
7.

Build community to effectively respond to climate change

a) Community responds to climate change b) Upgrade the system of public health care, effectively respond to climate change c) Raise awareness, education and training
8. 9.
Develop advanced science and technology in accordance with climate change response Strengthen international cooperation and national position on climate change issue. integration, raise
10. Diversificate effective financial resources and investment.
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IMPLEMENTATION PHASES
From now on to 2012:

The urgent and undelayed adaptation activities must be implemented. Focus on capacity building activities, strengthen science and technology, review, adjust and supplement the mechanisms, policies. strategies for green growth, climate change adaptation and mitigation of GHG emissions in accordance with international circumstance will be affirmed more clearly after 2012.
2013 2025:
Pay special attention the climate system. to the GHG emissions reduction issue to protect
Activities of climate change adaption and GHG emissions reduction are carried out at the same time, associated with the country's socio-economic development.
2026 2050:
GHG emissions reduction becomes to criteria in activities of socio-economic development. Missions of strategy will be reviewed, adjusted and supplemented with the new development in order to build and strengthen the low carbon economy which has resistance and high adaptability to in front of climate change impacts.
PRIORITY PROGRAMS
the period 2016 - 2025. 2) Science and technology program of national climate change. 3) Scheme modernizes forecasting technology and hydrometeorology monitoring networks to 2020. 4) Mekong delta program and Hong river delta program on water resource management and climate change adaption. 5) Scheme inventories, monitores greenhouse gas emissions and manages activities minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. 6) Viet Nam program of climate change adaption in big cities. 7) Program upgrades and renovate sea dikes, river dike in accordance with the conditions of climate change and sea level rise. 8) Scheme to upgrade the community health care system in accordance with conditions of climate change and sea level rise. 9) Program of Islands socio-economic development effectively responds to climate change and sea level rise. 10) Scheme builds experimentally and expands model of responding to climate change effectively.
1) National target program responds to climate change, expansion plan for
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Thank you!
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Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, DSENRE in MPI
VietNamGreenGrowthStrategy
Hanoi,May31.2012
DepartmentofScience,Education,NaturalResourcesand Environment MinistryofPlanningandInvestment
Content
Background Process DefinitionsandTimeFrame GoalandObjectives Tasks Implementationissues Financing Implementation Feasibility
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Background
Nationalcontext
In2004,VietnamapprovedtheVietNamagenda21and establishedtheNationalSustainableDevelopmentCouncil In2008,VietNaminitiateditsclimatechangeresponse
InitiallycenteredaroundNTPRCCandstartedwiththe developmentofprovincialandsectoralactionplans In2011,theGOVinitiatedthedevelopmentofaclimatechange andagreengrowthstrategy
Recentmacroeconomicdevelopmenthaveledtothe needtorestructuretheeconomy
TheVGGSisdrivenbythesethreenationalpolicy agendaandVietNamawarenesstocontributeto internationaleffortstocombatclimatechange.
Process
PMissuednoticeinMarch2011(38/TBVPCPMarch32011)which statedthatlowcarbongrowthispartoftheGreengrowthstrategy Firststep:StrategicFrameworkdevelopment
AdraftingandEditorialboardwereestablishedwhichincluded representativesfromkeyMinistries(MOIT,MONRE,MARD,MOT) DevelopmentofastrategicFramework
ConsultedwiththeinternationalcommunitybyNovember242011
Secondstep:DetailedStrategy
Consultationwithstakeholders(2withprivatesectorand3withlocal government/academiaandcivilsociety;andonewithinternational community(May142012)) Reviewbyeditorialboardandlineministries Feasibilityassessmentoflowcarbonoptions StudyvisitstoKorea,MexicoandGermany/Netherlands,
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StudyActivities
3Studyvisits:
Mexico Korea Netherlands/Germany
Feasibilityassessmentofproposedlowcarbon options Reviewsonselectedissues:

Greenemployment/povertyalleviation NaturalCapitalrestoration
StudyVisitFindings(NL/G)
AssesshowVietnamcanbestpositionitselfintheglobalgreen valuechainsothatgreengrowthcancontributeeffectivelyto economicrestructuringandrepositioning Developadditionalresearchmechanismstomonitorandevaluate theimplementationofthegreengrowthstrategiestorespond quickertopolicyoutcomes Needtofocusonwastemanagementissuesandcleanerproduction Studymechanismstosupporttheengagementofsmalland mediumenterprisesingreengrowth. Strengthentheroleandresponsibilitiesoftheinstitutionsof scienceandtechnologyresearchintheimplementationofgreen growthstrategies. StrengthenthecapacityoftheVietnamAssociationstoensures theybetterperformtheirroleaseabridgebetweengovernment, businessesandscientists.
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StudyVisitFindings(Korea/Mexico)
Korea:
Broadstrategy,aimingtomainstreamGGin overalleconomicdevelopmentandIndustrial DevelopmentwhichisrelevantforVn Stressingbotheconomic,socialand environmentalaspects
Mexico:
Wellestablishedinstitutionalframeworkwith goodstrategicfocusonenergyandlanduse.
DefinitionandTimeFrame
Viet Nam definition of Green Growth
The green growth in Vietnam is a growth model based on the process of changing growth models, restructuring the economy with an aim to fully exploiting comparative advantages, increasing economic efficiency and competitiveness through research into and application of advanced technologies, developing modern infrastructure systems to efficiently use natural resources, reducing greenhouse gas emission, responding to climate change, contributing to hunger eradication and poverty reduction, and creating driving forces to promote sustainable economic growth.
Time duration: 2011 2020 with Vision towards 2050
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GoalandObjectives
Overallgoal: Greengrowthandthelowcarboneconomy willbecomethemainstreamofsustainableeconomic development andstrengthensocialeconomic development. Objectives:
Restructuretheeconomyandincreasecompetivenessthrough efficientuseofresourcesandaddressenvironmental degradation Assessandpromotetheuseofhightechnologydevelopmentto increaseefficiencyinnaturalresourceuse,reduceGHGintensity oftheeconomyandrespondtoclimatechange Improvethequalitythroughgreenemployment,sustainable lifestyles,greeninfrastructure/buildingandrestorednatural capital
Targets
By 2020: the average GDP per capita will double the 2010 level, the energy consumption per capita be reduced by 2.5 3%/year, the greenhouse gas emission intensity be reduced by 1015% compared to the 2010 level; a modern and efficient economic structure be formed, with which the value of hitech products and products applying high technologies will account for about 42 45% in the total GDP, the aggregate productivity contribute about 35% to the growth; By 2030: Vietnam will achieve the middleincome country status, develop sufficient and appropriate material, technical, human, and institutional bases for a widespread implementation of green growth methods. The total greenhouse gas emission will be reduced by 23%/year; the aggregate productivity contribute at least 50% to the growth. By 2050: Green energy and technologies will be widely used
22
ImpactoftheVGGS onGHGEmissions
(basedonSNC)
GHGEmissionsbasedonVGGS
600.00
500.00 AnnualGHGemissions(inmtC02e)
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00 Baseline(SNC) VGGSDomestic VGGSint.support
2010 169.20 169.20 169.20
2020 300.40 270.36 255.34
2030 515.80 421.45 344.35
MajorTasks
1. Greening productionprocessesandrestore naturalcapital. 2. Reducetheintensityof greenhouse gas emissions (per unitofGDP) andpromote the uses cleanenergy, renewableenergy. 3. Greening lifestyle andpromote sustainable consumption.
23
1.ReducetheIntensityofGHGgasses perunitGDP
6.Improvingenergyperformanceandefficiency, reducingenergyconsumptioninproduction, transportationandtrade. 7.Changethefuelstructureintheindustriesand transportation 8.Promotetheeffectiveexploitationofrenewable andnewenergysources 9.Reducinggreenhousegasemissionsthroughthe developmentofsustainableandresourceefficient agriculture
2.GreeningProduction
1. Greeningproductionthroughmasterplansand restructuringtheeconomy 2. Utilizenaturalresourceseconomicallyandefficiently.
1. Sustainableuseofwaterresources 2. combatlanddegradation 3. Miningandmineraluse
3. Acceleratethedevelopmentofgreenindustries 4. Developmentofsustainableinfrastructure 5. Innovatetechnologiesandrolloutcleanerproduction
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3.GreeningLifestylesandpromote SustainableProduction
10.PromotesustainableUrbanization 11.Developnewruralareawithlifestylein harmonywithenvironment 12.Promotingsustainableconsumptionand buildinggreenlifestyle
ImplementationArrangements
Developandimproveinstitutionalarrangement
Reviewpolicies,masterplans,socioeconomicdevelopmentplans Embedgreengrowthintotheenhancementofcoordinationin implementingexistingnationaltargetprograms Improvecoordinationtoensurepropermainstreamingin developmentplanning strengthentheroleofcivilsocietyorganizations
Communicateandraiseawarenesstoallpeopleon thegreengrowthstrategy. Conductresearch,promulgateandemploytheuseof economicandtechnicalstandardsandinitiatethe developmentofadatabaseongreengrowth
25
Financing
Developaframeworkforinvestmentand financeforthegreengrowthstrategy Marketbasedmechanismandfinancial instrumentswill be encouraged. Shiftintaxationwith widerapplicationofeco tax,movingfromtheprincipleoftaxing production(goodsandservices)totaxing damages Studyandaestablishgreengrowthfund
Humanresourcedevelopment towardsGreenEmployment
Strengthentrainingandknowledgeeducation aboutthegreeneconomy,greengrowthfor officials Strengtheningretrainingorinservice training,creatingjobs,assuringwellbeingsfor theunemployedcausedbygreengrowth. Delivertraininganddevelopmentofhuman resourcesforgreengrowththroughthe educationandtrainingsector
26
Science,Technology,Monitoringand internationalcooperation
Strengthenscientificandappliedtechnologyresearch MonitoringandEvaluationoftheStrategyImplementation
Strengthenthesupervision,monitoring,andevaluationduringstrategy implementation Mobilizeandencouragetheparticipationofsocialorganizations,unionsand peopleinmonitoringtheimplementationofgreengrowthstrategy. Mobilizesocialorganizations,unionsandpeopleclassesjointheeffortsin implementingthegreengrowthstrategy
Enhancinginternationalcooperation
Promotecooperationonscientificresearchandinformation Attracttheparticipationofinternationalorganizations,developmentpartners, financiers,technicalassistanceonbothbilateralandmultilateralbasisin implementingthegreengrowthstrategy Promoteexchangesintraining,humanresourcesdevelopmentforcreating greeneconomy. CreatesufficientlegalbasisandfavourableconditionstofulfilVietNam
StrategyImplementation
RoadMap
Fortheperiod20112020,themaintasksare: Informthepublicandstakeholdersonthestrategy Developpoliciesandsupportingregulationstoguidetheimplementationandmanagementofthe strategy. FosterhumanresourcedevelopmenttomeetrequirementsofdevelopinggreeneconomyinViet Nam. Developinformationanddatasystem Promoteresearchanddevelopment. Formulateandimplementkeyprojectsongreengrowth(lowcarbon,GHGreduction,energysaving, renewableenergyuse,greeningindustries,constructionandtransportation). Developexperimentalprojects/modelsongreengrowthinagricultureandforestry,energy,and construction Fortheperiod20212030,themaintasksare: Furtherstrengtheningtoimproveinstitutionsandpoliciesforgreengrowth Expandinghumanresourcedevelopment. Promotingtheimplementationofkeyprojects. Conductingenvironmentalauditingatalllevels PromotingtheprocessofeconomicrestructuringfollowingthegreeneconomyinVietNam. Fortheperiod20302050: Thespecificmeasureswillbeidentifiedbasedontheimplementationresults fromthepreviousperiodof20112030aswellasthecountrysituationaswellastheinternationalcontext.
27
ProposedRoadmap
Phases:Learningmainstreaming GreenGrowth towardsaGE greenVietNam
20122015202020252030 2050
GGS Learning OnGG, identify winwins Develop MRV CDM MainstreamGG in (SEDP 20152020 Gradualsharpentargets thrucapandtrade, increasedandtargetedenv taxes, GGStasks: 1.Low carbon growth 2.Greening of production 3.Green lifestyles (4restored natural capital) GreenVietNam:highGreenGDPandlow GHG/unitGDP
EstablishnationalREDDProgram InitiateinnovationinGreenSupplyChains
Developfinancialinfrastructure andmarketbasedmechanism(newmechanism Climatefinance GreenpublicProcurement masterplan Publicawarenesscampaigns
IEC DevelopHumanresourcesandtechnologyforGG
Organizingstructure
Thereare3options:newSC;currentNCCCand NConCompetivenessandSD KeyfunctionsoftheSC:aInterministerial SteeringCommitteetocoordinateanddirectthe greengrowthstrategy.
DeputyPrimeMinisteractsaschairman. MinisterofPlanningandInvestmentisapermanent vicepresidentandfourvicepresidentsMOF,MOIT, MARDandMONRE Councilmembersincluderepresentativesofother ministries,institutions,localgovernments,scientists andprivatesector.
MPIleadsandoverseesoverallimplementation ofgreengrowthstrategy
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Thankyouforyourattention!
29
Nguyen Tung Lam, ISPONRE in MONRE
Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY

Kyoto University: Nguyen Thai Hoa, Kei Gomi, Yuzuru Matsuoka National Institute for Environmental Studies: Tomoko Hasegawa, Junichi Fujino, Mikiko Kainuma Institute of Strategy, Policy and Natural Resources: Nguyen Thi Thuy Duong, Nguyen Tung Lam, Nguyen Lanh, Nguyen Van Tai Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment: Huynh Thi Lan Huong, Tran Thuc Water Resources University: Nguyen Quang Kim Japan International Cooperation Agency: Hiroshi Tsujihara
Background
Why we need a LCS? In conventional growth pathway, developed countries have been emitting a large amount of green house gases in the process of economic growth. To avoid it, a developing country like Vietnam should leap-frog this process and creates low-carbon society (LCS) directly. One of the strategic objectives of National Target to Respond to Climate Change is take an opportunity to develop towards a low-carbon economy and National Climate Change Strategy is consider low carbon economy as principles in achieving sustainable development; GHG emission reduction to become mandatory index in social and economic development In order to contribute discussion on LCS, we created a national sustainable LCS scenario in Vietnam in 2030.
30
To create a LCS society:
We use ExSS tool and AIM/AFOLU Bottom up model to estimate GHG emissions and mitigations in energy sector and AFOLU sectors Target GHGs: only CO2 is considered in energy sector, CO2, CH4 and N2O are considered in AFOLU sectors
Part I: Socio-economic scenario in 2030 Part II: GHG emissions/mitigations in energy sectors Part III: GHG emissions/mitigations in AFOLU sectors Part IV: Integration and Actions towards LCS
31
Part I: Socio-economic scenario in 2030
Procedure
1. 2. Data collection & estimation in the base year (2005) Construct future socio-economic scenario in 2030 using ExSS
32
Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)

ExSS is a quantitative projection tool for LCS scenarios developed by Kyoto University and National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. It describes future socio-economic scenario (demography, economy, transport, land use, buildings, etc), energy demand, and GHG emissions and mitigation potential. GHG mitigation potential is based on energy technology database (both demand & supply sides), building performance, transport structure change, land use change, agriculture practice, behavior change and renewable energy potential. It can be used to identity detailed mitigation potential of each options in each sector.
Socio-economic part of ExSS
33
Data collection (socio-economic)

Data Population Household IO table Source Population Division - United Nations Population low variant, 2030 for Vietnam, General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2008) Vietnam Population and Housing Census (2009). Input-output table 2005 (Trinh Bui, 2009) JICA/MoT(2009): The comprehensive study on the sustainable development of transport system in Vietnam (VISTRANSS 2)
General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2009) Transport Schipper L., A. T. Le, O. Hans., 2008. Measuring the invisible. Quantifying emissions reductions from transport solutions. Hanoi case study. EMBARQ The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport and World Resources Institute.
Walter, H. and R. Michael (1995). Motorization and non-motorized transport in Asia. Transport system evolution in China, Japan and Indonesia. Land Use Policy, Vol 13, No.1, pp. 69-84, 1996.
2030 BaU Assumptions

Indicator Population Demographic composition Quantification (2030BaU scenario) 104 million people [Male] 0-14: 8%, 15-64: 35.9%, 65 and over: 5.8% [Female] 0-14: 7.7%, 15-64: 35.2%, 65 and over: 7.4% 3.5 (4.2 in 2005) Tendency to Growth rate at 0.9 % per annum Number of male births are higher than female births
Average number of persons per household
Slight decrease in average size of household
GDP
6.5%
Average annual growth rate during the period 2005 - 2030
Industrial structure
[Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry]: 17% (22% in 2005) [Industry, Construction]: 43% (41% in 2005) [Service]: 40% (37% in 2005)
Primary industry sectoral share has a decrease trend, whilst secondary and tertiary industry have an increasing trend.
10
Demand structure Modal shift in transport Contribution of export in GDP: 29% (29% in 2005) Passenger transport: Export maintains there share in GDP Increasing of public transport, keep
34
Estimated socio-economic indicators

2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM Population (million people) No. of households (million) GDP (trillion VND) Gross output (trillion VND) Primary industry (trillion VND) Secondary industry (trillion VND) Tertiary industry (trillion VND) Passenger transport demand (million people-km) Freight transport demand (million ton-km) 83.1 20.0 818.5 1,934 404 1,033 497 104.0 29.7 3,963 9,750 1,684 5,497 2,569 104.0 29.7 3,963 9,750 1,684 5,497 2,569 2030BaU/200 2030CM/200 5 5 1.3 1.5 4.8 5.0 4.2 5.3 5.2 2.4 6.1 1.3 1.5 4.8 5.0 3.9 5.2 5.2 2.3 6.1
223,981 542,687 518,028 38,856 235,212 235,124
11
Projected industrial output

12000
10000
Services Construction
8000
Capital goods Industrial materials Other consumer goods Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures Mining and quarrying Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry
Trill. VND
6000
4000
2000
0 2005 2030
12
35
Projected transport demand

There is an increasing share of motorbike and domestic aviation in passenger transport in 2030 Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries
600 500 400
250
Domestic aviation Walk & bike Inland waterway Train Car Motorbike
Billion ton.km
200
Domestic aviation Inland waterway Train 150 Truck
Billion pass-km
Bus
300 200 100 0
100
50
2005
2030BaU
2030CM
2005
2030BaU
2030CM
Passenger transport
Freight transport
13
Part II: CO2 emissions/mitigations in Energy sector
14
36
Procedure
1. 2. 3. Data collection of energy demand and supply in the base year (2005) Project 2030BaU (Business as usual) energy demand and CO2 emissions Develop 2030CM (Countermeasures) scenario with mitigation options
15
Energy part of ExSS

Output by industry Energy service demand per driving force Energy end-use device share Energy end-use device energy efficiency Dispersed power generation (DPG) Energy efficiency (DPG) Commercial building floor area Freight transport demand Passenger transport demand Number of household
Fuel share Energy efficiency
Energy service demand Final energy demand Central power generation (CPG) Energy demand (CPG) Primary energy supply CO2 emssions Energy efficiency (CPG) Fuel share (CPG)
Energy demand (DPG)
Transmission loss (CPG) Own use (CPG)
Exogenous variables Parameters
CO2 emission factor
Endogenous variables
16
37
Data collection (energy)

Data Source Remarks
Energy demand
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE), 2003. Model Documentation Report. Final energy demand by fuel by Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting sector is obtained from National Energy Information Administration U.S Energy Balance 2005 (IEA). Other Department of Energy Washington, DC. literatures were referred in order to estimate details of energy demand International Energy Agency (IEA), 2007. Energy by industries and by services. balances of non-OECD countries 2004-2005. 2007 Edition. IEA statistics.
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2007. Energy Total power supply and fuel balances of non-OECD countries 2004-2005. consumption were derived from17 Power supply 2007 Edition. IEA statistics. EBT.
2030 BaU Assumptions

Field Variables Total Final energy demand Assumptions From 2005 to 2030, total final energy demand grows by 5.1%/year from 2005 to 2030. Industrial sector grow in higher rate than total demand. Electricity and petroleum products grow in higher rate than total demand.
By sectors By fuels Share of fuels
According to APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (4th edition) and Vietnam Power Development Plan (PDP VI) Power supply Efficiency Nhan T. N., M. H. Duong, 2009. The potential for Mitigation of CO2 Emission in Vietnams Power Sector. DEPOCEN Working paper Series No. 2009/22.
18
38
Projected final energy demand by sectors

180 160 140 120 10 Commercial Industry
Mtoe
62
Residential Freight transport Passenger transport
100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 10 26 2 21 4 3 14 2030BaU 12 7 2030CM 46 37 53
19
Projected primary energy demand by fuels

250
200 26 11 150
Mtoe
Coal 2 23 9 Oil Gas 5 3 Hydro power Nuclear Solar & Wind
27
100
66
21 43
50 23 5 12 8 2005 2 64
Biomass
40 2030BaU 2030 CM
20
39
Projected energy mix of power supply

3% 2030 CM 40% 3% 27% 16% 6% 4% Coal Oil 2% 2% 2030BaU 46% 4% 27% 14% 5% Gas Hydropower Nuclear 2005 23% 7% 51% 19% Solar wind Biomass 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
21
Projected CO2 emissions

600 500 Commercial Industry 400 Residential Freight transport 300 Passenger transport 67 47 257 38 23 185 41 10 39 15 2005 11 6 2030BaU 110 28 68 2030 CM
MtCO2
200
100
22
40
Contribution of low carbon countermeasures

Energy saving behavior
4
Residential
Fuel shift & Natural energy
11
Energy efficiency improvement
13
Commercial
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Energy saving
11
Industry
Fuel shift
16
23
Passenger Transport
Biofuel
0.3
Energy efficient vehicle
13
Publilc transport
10
Freight Transport
Biofuel
Energy efficient vehicle
24
Modal shift
Energy efficiency and fuel shift

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
39 40 45
23
Part III: GHG emissions/mitigations in AFOLU sectors
Power sector
24
41
Framework
Country: Vietnam Year: Agriculture; 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 LULUCF; 2000-2030 (1 year step) Target GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O GHG emission sources: livestock enteric fermentation, livestock manure, managed soils, paddy rice and land-use change, excluding fire and disturbance of land. Scenarios BaU: No countermeasure applied CM: Countermeasure applied under several carbon taxes
25
AFOLUB model
Activity data AFOLUB model
AG/Bottom-up LULUCF/Bottom-up
Emission/mitigation
AFOLUB model Bottom-up type model to determine combination and amounts of individual mitigation countermeasures Estimate GHG emissions and mitigations in AFOLU sectors Analyze effect of policies such as carbon tax, energy tax, subsidy etc. Time horizon: mid-term (typically until 2030) AGriculture Bottom-up module (AG/Bottom-up) Illustrate behavior of agricultural producers and selection of mitigation countermeasures Maximize producers profit The LULUCF/Bottom-up Illustrate land use and land use change cohort Maximize total accumulated mitigation in the future
26
42
Input and output of AFOLUB model
27
Data sources
Present & future Activity data Crops & Livestocks in 2005-2009: Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (SNC) Statistical Yearbook (2002, 2007 and 2009) Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2006 FAOSTAT, 2012, download Landuse in 2000, 2005: SNC ResourceSTAT, FAOSTAT, 2011, download Statistical Yearbook 2001(2002) Countermeasure data Collected from domestic & international literatures Countermeasures in LULUCF is referred to SCN
Countermeasures in Agricultural sector
Code RRC HGM CFL DSM MD FIR RAS HEF SRF TRM Emission sources Enteric fermentation Code 3A1 Countermeasures Cost Mitigation Reference [USD/activity/yr]* [tCO2eq/activity/yr]* -23 0.45 Bates(1998a), Shibata et al.(2010), Graus et al.(2004) 0 0.32 Bates(1998a) 44 0.62 USEPA(2006) 2.2 0.33 Bates(1998a) 0 0.89 USEPA(2006) 0 0.68 USEPA(2006) 20 0.24 USEPA(2006), Graus et al. (2004) 2.2 0.65 USEPA(2006), Hendriks et al. (1998), Amann et al. (2005) 2150 5 0.76 0.08 USEPA(2006), Akiyama et al.(2010) IPCC(2007), Smith et al.(2007)
Replacement of roughage with concentrates High genetic merit Manure management 3A2 Dome digester, cooking fuel and light Daily spread of manure Rice cultivations 3C7 Midseason drainage Fall incorporation of rice straw Replace Urea with Ammonium Managed soils 3C4~3C6 High efficiency fertilizer application Slow-release fertilizer application Tillage and residue management
* Activity is area of cropland for crop cultivation and animal numbers for livestocks.
28
43
Assumptions
Scenarios of land use and land use change
Scenarios of harvested area of crop production
29
Assumptions
Scenarios of livestock animal (1)
Scenarios of livestock animal (2)
30
44
Comparison of total GHG emissions in BaU in AFOLU sectors

150 100
GHG emission [MtCO2]
50 0 -50 -100 SCN, 2000 28 63 41 -50 82
2000 20 62 42 -50 74
2005 18 65 35 -48 70
2010 19 72 31 -47 75
2015 17 74 29 -46 74
2020 15 78 27 -45 76
2030 14 85 23 -43 79
Emission and removals from soils Emission from agriculture Forest and grassland conversion Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks TOTAL
31
Comparison of breakdown of GHG emissions in Agriculture in BaU case

90 80 70
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SCN, 2000 14 37 0 3 8 2000 13 37 2 2 8 2005 15 35 3 3 9 2010 17 36 4 3 12 2015 19 34 4 4 14 2020 21 33 4 4 16 2030 24 32 6 6 18
Managed soils (N2O) Rice field (CH4) Manure (N2O) Manure (CH4) Enteric fermentation (CH4)
32
45
Mitigation in 2030 in different allowable abatement cost in AFOLU sectors

Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] Agriculture Enteric fermentation: High genetic merit Enteric fermentation: Replacement of roughage with concentrates Manure management: Daily spread of manure Manure management: Dome digester, cooking fuel and light Rice cultivations: Replace urea with ammonium sulphate Rice cultivations: Midseason drainage Rice cultivations: Fall incorporation of rice straw Managed soils: High efficiency fertilizer application Managed soils: Slow-release fertilizer Total LULUCF Protection and sustainable management of existing production forest areas Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] 0 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.8 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 10 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.8 1.8 6.7 3.4 2.9 0.0 20.8 3.1 100 1.6 2.6 0.0 2.8 1.8 6.7 3.4 2.7 0.8 22.7 3.1 10000 1.8 2.5 4.9 0.1 1.8 6.7 3.4 2.4 2.8 26.6
33
3.1
Part IV: Integration and Actions towards LCS
34
46
GHG emissions/mitigations in Vietnam in 2030

700
Total emission reduction 222 Mt-CO2eq
36% reduction
600
GHGs emissions/reductions (MtCO2)
500
400
4 times
300
601
200
379
LULUCF 21 MtCO2 Agriculture 21 MtCO2 Residential 28 MtCO2 Commercial 10 MtCO2 Industry 50 MtCO2 Passenger transport 23 MtCO2 Freight transport 29 MtCO2 Power Supply 39 MtCO2
GHG emissions (MtCO2eq) Sector 2030BaU 2030CM AFOLU sectors Agriculture LULUCF Energy sectors Residential sector Commercial sector Insudtry Transport Total 79 85 -6 522 110 41 257 114 601 37 64 -27 342 68 28 185 61 379
GHG emissions reduction (MtCO2eq) 42 21 21 180 42 13
100
151
GHG Emission
0 2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM
35
71 53 222
Projected per capita GHG emissions and emission intensity
Per capita GHG emissions

0.20
Emission intensity
7.0 6.0 5.8

tCO2/trill-VND
0.18 0.15 0.12 0.10
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM
t-CO2/capita
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM 0.7 1.8 3.7
36
47
Actions towards low carbon society in Vietnam

Actions towards LCS in Vietnam in 2030 GHG emissions mitigations (MtCO2)
F 50% A1 7% A2 8%
Mitigation po tential 42 MtCO 2
AFOLU sectors Action A1 Livestock Manure Management Action A2 Livestock Enteric Fermentation Action A3 Rice Cultivation Management Action A4 Soil Management Action F Forest and Land Use Management
42 3 3
A4 7%
A3 29%
Mitigation potential of AFOLU sector 12 3 21 180 14 15 17 79 16 39 222 Mitigation potential in Energy sector
Energy sectors Action E1 Green Building Action E2 Convenient Transport Action E3 Energy Saving Behavior Action E4 Energy Efficiency Improvement Action E5 Fuel Shift in Industry Action E6 Smart Power Plants T t l
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Action A1. Livestock Manure Management

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
Mitigation potential 42 MtCO 2
A3 29%
A1 7%
A4 7%
The action Livestock Manure Management is expected to reduce 2.8 MtCO2 at Allowable Abatement Cost (AAC) of 10 USD/tCO2, accounts for 7% of total GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors
8%
50%
29%
7%
Breakdown of emission mitigation in action A1 in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] 0 Daily spread of manure Dome digester, cooking fuel and light Total 0.0 2.8 2.8 10 0.0 2.8 2.8 100 0.0 2.8 2.8 100000 4.9 0.1 5.0
38
48
Action A2. Livestock Enteric Fermentation

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
The action Livestock Enteric Fermentation is calculated to reduce 3.3 MtCO2 at AAC of 10 USD/tCO2 in 2030. This action comprises of 2 main countermeasures; namely, high genetic merit and replacement of roughage with concentrates, account for 8% of total GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors
A4 7%
7%
A2 8%
50%
29%
7%

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] 0 High genetic merit Replacement of roughage with concentrates Total 0.1 3.2 3.3 10 0.1 3.2 3.3 100 1.6 2.6 4.2 100000 1.8 2.5 4.3
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Action A3. Rice Cultivation Management

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
A4 7%
The action Rice Cultivation Management is contributed to the largest potential mitigation in agricultural sector (11.9 MtCO2 at AAC of 10 USD/tCO2), account for 29% of total GHG emission reduction in AFOLU sectors
7%
8%
50%
A3 29% 7%

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] 0 Replace urea with ammonium sulphate Midseason drainage Fall incorporation of rice straw Total 0.0 4.7 0.0 4.7 10 1.8 6.7 3.4 11.9 100 1.8 6.7 3.4 11.9 100000 1.8 6.7 3.4 11.9
40
49
Action A4. Soil Management

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
A4 7%
The action Soil Management is contributed to reduce 2.9 MtCO2, account for 7% of total GHG emission in AFOLU sectors. This action comprises of 2 main countermeasures; namely, high efficiency fertilizer application and slow-release fertilizer.
7%
8%
50%
29%
A4 7%

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] 0 High efficiency fertilizer application Slow-release fertilizer Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 2.9 0.0 2.9 100 2.7 0.8 3.5 100000 2.4 2.8 5.1
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Action F. Forest and Land Use Management

The action Forest and Land Use Management is a biggest reduction contributor, account for 50% of GHG emissions reduction in AFOLU sectors, which numbers to about 20.9 MtCO2 main countermeasures such as protection and sustainable management of existing production forest areas, conservation of existing protection forests and planting fastgrowing trees for lumber.
F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
A4 7%
7%
8%
F 50%
29%
7%
Breakdown of emission mitigation in action F in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] 0 Protection and sustainable management of existing production forest areas Conservation of existing protection forests Planting fast-growing trees for lumber Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9 100 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9 100000 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9
42
50
Action E1. Green Building

The Green Building action focuses on countermeasures of fuel shifting and natural energy utilization of two sectors (residential and commercial). This action is expected to reduce 14.4 MtCO2, account for 8% of total CO2 emission reduction in energy sector
Breakdown of emission mitigation in action E1
CO2 emission reduction Contribution in the Action [%] [ktCO2] Residential Heating Hot water Cooking Commercial Heating Hot water Cooking Total 456 2306 338 14401 100% 8% 369 2040 8893 3099 22% 2% 11302 78% Contribution in total reduction in energy sector [%] 6%
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Action E2. Convenient Transport

The action on Convenient Transport primarily comprises of a shift from private vehicles to public transportation (such as from motorbike and car to bus and train) by traffic management system and increased penetration of fuel switch (fuel switch from gasoline and diesel to electricity and bio-diesel).
CO2 emission reduction [ktCO2] Passenger transport Bio diesel vehicle Public transport Freight transport Bio diesel vehicle Modal shift Total 1107 4011 15049 100% 8% 335 9596 5117 34% 3% 9932 Contribution in the Action [%] 66% Contribution in total reduction in energy sector [%] 6%
44
51
Action E3. Energy Saving Behavior

The action Energy Saving Behavior is projected to reduce 16.9 MtCO2 or 9% of total CO2 emission reduction in energy sector. Energy saving activities focus on energy services such as cooling, heating, hot water, cooking in commercial and residential sectors, direct heating, steam and motor in industrial sector.
Contribution in total CO2 emission Contribution in the reduction in energy Action [%] reduction [ktCO2] sector [%] Residential Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Commercial Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Industry Furnace Boiler Motor Other Total 3182 3872 2250 1567 16917 36% 9% 51 594 581 108 163 93 106 10871 6% 94 109 525 2961 245 179 236 1697 10% 1% 4349 26% 2%
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Action E4. Energy Efficiency Improvement

The Energy Efficiency Improvement action is able to reduce CO2 emissions in all sectors in 2030 by 78.8 MtCO2 or 44% of total CO2 emission reduction in energy sector. The highest amount of CO2 emission reduction accounts for transport sector by 37.3 MtCO2. It is followed by industry, residential and commercial sectors with respectively amount of CO2 reductions are 23.5, 12.8 and 5.2 MtCO2.
Breakdown of emission mitigation in action 4
CO2 emission reduction Contribution in the Action [%] [ktCO2] Residential Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Commercial Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Industry Furnace Boiler Motor Other Passenger transport Motorbike Car Bus Train Ship Aviation Freight transport Truck Train Ship Aviation Total 12838 1460 127 857 5937 2275 940 1241 5159 795 969 822 303 1092 624 555 23484 14861 4757 974 2892 13431 4033 3355 3772 31 18 2221 23901 23698 10 179 13 78812 100% 44% 30% 13% 17% 7% 30% 13% 7% 3% 16% Contribution in total reduction in energy sector [%] 7%
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Action E5. Fuel Shift in Industry

The action Fuel Shift in Industry is projected to reduce CO2 emission in 2030 by 15.7 MtCO2 or 9% of total CO2 emission in energy sector. Fuel uses in industry sector will be able to shift from high carbon intensity to lower carbon intensive. For instance, fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas.
Sector Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry Mining and quarrying Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures Other consumer goods Industrial materials Capital goods Construction Total CO2 emission reduction [ktCO2] 1335 2253 2067 3251 3037 1060 2667 15670 Contribution in Contribution in total reduction in the Action [%] energy sector [%] 9% 14% 13% 21% 19% 7% 17% 100% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 9%
47
Action E5. Fuel Shift in Industry

The action Smart Power Plants is calculated to reduce CO2 emission in 2030 by 26.6 MtCO2 or 16% of total CO2 emission reduction in energy sector. This action comprises of 4 main countermeasures; namely, utilizing economically efficient domestic energy resources, promoting the use of renewable energies, reducing transmission and distribution loss, and developing nuclear power plant.
Power supply indicators in Vietnam

Coal 2005 Fuel (ktoe) Efficiency (%) Generation (ktoe) Own-use (ktoe) Transmission loss (ktoe) Distribution (ktoe) 2030BaU Fuel (ktoe) Efficiency (%) Generation (ktoe) Own-use (ktoe) Transmission loss (ktoe) Distribution (ktoe) 2030CM Fuel (ktoe) Efficiency (%) Generation (ktoe) Own-use (ktoe) Transmission loss (ktoe) Distribution (ktoe) 22643 45 10189 279 694 9217 2438 38 926 25 63 838 15439 42 6484 178 441 5865 8028 100 8028 220 547 7261 3088 100 3088 85 210 2793 1853 100 1853 51 126 1676 772 40 309 8 21 279 30877 846 2102 27929 54260 36611 42 15377 421 1196 13759 3468 35 1214 33 94 1086 21244 40 8498 233 661 7604 11330 100 11330 310 882 10138 1619 100 1619 44 126 1448 1214 100 1214 33 94 1086 4046 30 1214 33 94 1086 40465 1109 3148 36207 79532 2132 36 769 21 84 663 679 31 213 6 23 184 4812 37 1770 49 194 1527 1845 100 1845 51 203 1592 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4597 126 505 3966 0 0 0 9467 Oil Gas Hydropower Nuclear Solar wind Biomass Total
48
53
Conclusions
Vietnam LCS scenarios in 2030 were projected using ExSS and AIM/AFOLU models, Target GHGs are: CO2 from energy use, CO2, CH4 and N20 in AFOLU sectors In 2030BaU scenario, GHG emissions were four folds from 2005 from 151 MtCO2 to 601 MtCO2 In 2030CM scenario, GHG emission was reduced 36% from 2030BaU. Emission intensity was reduced 20% In AFOLU sectors, GHG emissions is contributed to decrease by 57% by 2030CM compared to 2030BaU level. Midseason drainage and conservation of existing protection forests are expected the largest mitigation countermeasures in the sectors. In energy sector, about 38% of GHG emissions can be reduced in 2030CM compared to 2030BaU level. Fuel shift and energy efficiency are projected the largest countermeasures in the sector.
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54
Shuzo Nishioka, LCS-RNet / IGES
IntegratingAsianWisdom: LowCarbonAsiaResearchNetwork LoCARNet

LowCarbonSocietyStudyWorkshop 31May2012 GrandPlazaHanoiHotel Hanoi
Dr.ShuzoNishioka SecretaryGeneral,LoCARNet/LCSRNet
InstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies(IGES)
Image
LoCARNet: LowCarbonAsiaResearchNetwork ResearchInstitutions/researchersnetwork whodedicatingdirectlyinLCSpolicymakingprocess
MohamadBin SAELAL Malaysia Sirintornthep TOWPRAYOON Thailand

Developed Countries GHGemissionspercapita
RizaldiBOER Indonesia HoChin SIONG Malaysia
Mikiko Kainuma Japan
EnergyIntensive Lockinsin Development
Vietnam
Damagingthe Economyand NaturalSystem Low Carbon World
Bundit LIMMEECHOKCHAI Thailand
Developing Countries
Leapfrog development
HakMAO Cambodia
Jiang KEJUN China
55
JapanLaunchedLoCARNet LowCarbonAsiaResearchNetwork
LoCARNet launchedbyMinistryofEnvironmentJapanandtheInstitutefor GlobalEnvironmentStrategies(IGES)inclosecooperationwiththeNational InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES)promotesresearchtosupportthe developmentofpoliciesforlowcarbongrowthbyenablingdialoguebetween scientistsandpolicymakers. LoCARNet facilitates theAsianregiontomoveforwardwithlowcarbongrowth, withanumberofongoingfavourable conditionstoturnchallengesinto opportunities.
Initiation
TheGovernmentofJapanandtheInternationalResearchNetworkforLow CarbonSocieties(LCSRNet)proposedtheestablishmentofanetworkcalled theLowCarbonAsiaResearchNetwork(LoCARNet)atASEAN+3 EnvironmentalMinisterMeeting(EMM)heldinOctober2011inCambodia. ThelaunchofLoCARNet wasdeclaredatthesideeventoftheEastAsiaLow CarbonGrowthPartnershipDialogue andtheinitiationofLoCARNet was announcedbytheMinisteroftheEnvironment,Japanon15April2012.
KnowledgetoAction:Formulationoflowcarbongrowthpolicies
Stepbystepprocessfromdatacollection,knowledgesharing, identificationoftoolsandmethods,toimplementationandreview
56
LoCARNet ActivitiesandUniqueness
Networkofprominentresearchers Institutes)whoaredeeply involvedinlowcarbondevelopmentpolicyprocessesinthisregion. ScienceSciencePolicyDialogue:LoCARNet promotesresearch forpoliciestowardslowcarbongrowthbyenablingasufficient amountofdialoguebetweenscientistsandpolicymakers. Ownershipofknowledgebycountries:LoCARNet also encouragescollaborationamongstresearchersincountrywhose researchcapacityandscientificknowledgearefirmlygroundedin theirhomecountries. SouthSouthNorthCollaboration:LoCARNet aimstoincreasein researchcapacityintheAPregionthroughknowledgesharingand informationexchange,intheschemeofnotonlynorthsouth cooperation,butalsosouthsouthregionalcooperation. NotatallfundingbutwisdomnetworkAPN/LCInitiative)
FrameworkofLowCarbonAsiaResearchNetwork(LoCARNet)
LoCARNetisamultilayered,flexiblenetworkforresearchersto contributetolowcarbonpolicymaking.
57
ConceptofEastAsiaKnowledgePlatformforLowCarbonGrowth aimtohelddevelopingcountriescreateandimplementlowcarbonand
resilientdevelopmentstrategies,compatiblewiththeirdevelopmentgoals. TheinitiationofLoCARNetwasannouncedbytheMinisteroftheEnvironment,Japanin theEastAsiaClimateChangeDialogueheldinTokyo,Japanon15April2012. LoCARNet isonecomponentofEastAsiaKnowledgePlatform topromoteallefforts andactionsforrealisinglowcarbongrowthintheregion.
CollaborationofJICA/NIES/IGES
SideeventonEastAsiaLowCarbonGrowthPartnershipDialogue (14April2012,Tokyo,Japan)
EastAsiaKnowledgePlatformforLowCarbonGrowth
ResearchCommunity Researchintolow carbonsocieties NationalInstituteof EnvironmentalStudies (NIES) Researchnetworkfor lowcarbongrowthand sustainable development InstituteforGlobal Environmental Strategies(IGES) Practitioners Knowledgeandlessons learnedfrom international cooperationactivities: JapanInternational CooperationAgency (JICA)
Previouscooperation:developmentofscenariostowardslowcarbonsocieties inIskandar,MalaysiainaccordancewiththeSATREPSschemebyJST/JICA,etc.. 8
58
HowJapaneseGovernment/NIES/IGESworkedsofar
Since1997,capacitybuildingandtrainingoftheAsiaPacificIntegrated AssessmentModel(AIM)modelforAsianresearchershasbeenimplemented, andmorethan50researchersinAsiancountrieshavebeentrained. In2008,Japanproposedtosetup theInternationalResearchNetworkforLow CarbonSocieties(LCSRNet)attheG8EnvironmentMinistersMeeting to contributetotheglobalefforttotackleclimatechangebysharinguptodate scientificfindingsonvisionsandpathwaystowardslowcarbonsocieties. Since2009,theMinistryoftheEnvironmentJapanhascommissionedthe operationofLCSRNettotheInstituteforGlobalEnvironmentStrategies(IGES)to developaknowledgeplatformforlowcarbondevelopmenttoachievetowards lowcarbonsocieties. Since2009,theMinistryoftheEnvironmentJapanhasalsocommissioned researchonlowcarbongrowthinAsia toaresearchteamledbytheNational InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES).Theresearchteamhasstudiedthe feasibilitiesoflowcarbongrowth ineachcountryworkingwithlocalresearchers andhelpingthemtoexercisetheAIMmodeltosetuplowcarbontargetsand makelowcarbonscenariointheirowncountries.
Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)

AIM project started
AIM
ERI(China), IIM(India), MoE (Indonesia) , Seoul U (Korea) 1994 Training workshop at 1997 COP8, India COP3 JST/JICA SATREPS Project 2001 (FY2011-FY2015) AIT
1990
2004
Japan LCS Project (FY2004-FY2008) Japan-UK Joint Project (FY2006-FY2007) LCS-RNet (FY2009-)
2006
2007 2008
Malaysia
2009
2010 2011
Asia LCS Project (FY2009-FY2015)
2050
Low Carbon Society
10
Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam
10
59
LCSRNetG8
LowCarbonSocietyResearchNetwork
Researchers network who dedicate to governmental policy making process to reach a Low Carbon Society responding to G8 and world leaders requirements
16 institutions from France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, UK 2nd Annual Meeting (2010, Berlin): 88 participants from 57 institutions from 23 countries (including BRICs, Indonesia, South Africa) and 2 IGOs Fromfindingsof2nd AnnualMeetinginBerlin2010 Interlinkagesamongsocietyscomponentsmustbeunderstood. TechnologiesandR&DalonecannotattainLCS. Modelling implicationsandlimitationsmustbecorrectlyunderstood.
Calro Carraro JC Hourcade
http://lcs-rnet.org/ 21
Movementofknowledgesharing
PolicyDialogue: SustainableandLow CarbonDevelopmentin IndonesiaandAsia 1617February2010 Bogor,Indonesia Dialogue: TransitiontowardsLow CarbonSocietiesin ThailandandAsia 1718November2010 Bangkok,Thailand StakeholderDialogue: LowCarbon Developmentand ResearchNeed 1819April2011 Hanoi,Viet Num
ALowCarbonAsia: FromMalaysiatoAsia DialoguesbetweenPolicy MakersandResearchers: TowardsImplementation 45July2011, JohoreBahr,Malaysia
1996
2009
2010
2011.1
2011.67
2009,LCSRNet Knowledgesharingplatform CapacityBuildingforAsia
1996,AIMWorkshop ERI(China),IIM(India), MoE(Indonesia), SeoulU(Korea)
July13,2011,WorldBank LowEmissionsDevelopmentPolicy Implementation:TowardInternational CoherenceonKnowledgeSharing
January2011,AsianDevelopmentBank ResearchandDevelopmentTechnicalAssistance ModelandSoftwareDevelopment LowCarbonAnalysisandRoadmap CapacityBuildingandTraining
12
60
DialoguebetweenPolicymakersandResearchersinASEAN countries
Min.ofNaturalResources andEnvironment
Vietnam
ThailandGreenhouseGas Management Organization
UniversityofHanoi Ministryof Environment

LCSRNet Secretariat/IGES
Thailand
JointGraduateSchoolof EnergyandEnvironment
Cambodia
IndianInstituteof Management,etc
Source:WEO2009
MalaysiaIskandar Authority
Ministryof Environment
Malaysia
UniversityofTechnology Malaysia
Source:WEO2009
Indonesia
BogorAgricultural University
13
FutureDirectionofLoCARNet
Thereisaneedtoenhancecollaborationwithother stakeholders.Internationalorganisationsanddevelopment practitionerscancooperatetowardlowcarbonresearchand providesupporttobuilduparesearchexchange network/platform.Privatesectorcollaborationwillalso becomemoreimportantforgreeninvestmentandgreen growth. Coordinationandcollaborationarevitalatthenational,sub national/citiesandregionallevels.Thiswillstrengthen ownershipofknowledge,andalsoacceleratethespeedof lowcarbongrowthinAsia.
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Integrating Asian wisdom
Thank you for your kind attention!
Save our mother climate
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Panel Discussion
ContributionofScientificStudyto MakingaPracticalLCSPolicy PanelDiscussion

1. If we cannot go to LCS, 2. LCS offers higher QOL with less energy demand and lower-carbon energy supply 3. LCS needs good design, early action, and innovations
Designed by Hajime Sakai
NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan
Junichi FUJINO (fuji@nies.go.jp)
Low Carbon Society Study Workshop and its training in Hanoi 31st May 2012, Ha Noi, Viet Nam
3PointsofPanelDiscussion
LoCARNet: Research+Policy+X(e.g.business)=> Makeithappen! 1. Whatkindofresearchdoyouneedtocreate practicalLCSpolicybasedonlongterm perspectives? 2. WhatkindofresearchcanyouprovideforLCS policymaking? 3. Whatareouractionsnow?
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4. Compilation of Speakers Presentation Vietnamese
Truong Duc Tri, Deputy Director of DMHCC in MONRE
B TI NGUYN V MI TRNG
CHIN LC QUC GIA V BIN I KH HU

Trnh by: Trng c Tr Ph Cc trng Cc KTTV&BKH B Ti nguyn v Mi trng
Ni dung
1. Thng tin chung 2. Ni dung chnh ca Chin lc quc gia v BKH
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1. Thng tin chung

Vit Nam, trong vng 50 nm qua nhit trung bnh tng khong 0,5 - 0,7oC, Mc nc bin dng khong 20cm; Hin tng El Nio, La Nia ngy cng tc ng mnh m; Thin tai, c bit l bo, l v hn hn ngy cng khc lit;
1. Thng tin chung (tip)

Theo kch bn BKH v nc bin dng Vit Nam: Cui th k 21, nhit trung bnh nm nc ta tng khong 2 - 3oC; Tng lng ma nm v lng ma ma ma tng, trong khi lng ma ma kh li gim; Mc nc bin c th dng khong t 75cm n 1m so vi thi k 1980-1999; Nu mc nc bin dng cao 1m, khong 10-12% dn s nc ta b nh hng trc tip v tn tht khong 10% GDP;
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Nhng thch thc ca Vit Nam Nhn thc v bin i kh hu cn cha y ; H thng qun l, chnh sch cn thiu, dn tri; Nghin cu v tc ng ca BKH cn hn ch; C cu kinh t - x hi cha sn sng ng ph vi BKH; Cc ngnh kinh t cha lng ghp, quan tm ng n ti BKH; nh hng pht trin ca cc ngnh kinh t vn theo hng s dng ti nguyn pht trin.

Hnh ng ca Vit Nam - Ph duyt Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu (Q s 158 ngy 02.12.2008 ca Th tng Chnh ph) - Xy dng v cng b Kch bn BKH v nc bin dng cho Vit Nam (thng 6.2009) v cng b kt qu cp nht kch bn (thng 3.2012) - Ph duyt Chin lc quc gia v bin i kh hu (Q s 2139 ngy 05.12.2011 ca Th tng Chnh ph) - Thnh lp y ban quc gia v bin i kh hu (Q s 43 ngy 09.01.2012 ca Th tng Chnh ph) - T nm 2012, bt u trin khai cc m hnh ng ph vi cc tc ng ca BKH, c bit l nc bin dng. u tin trin khai cc tnh ven bin, c bit l cc tnh ng bng Sng Cu Long
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2. Cc ni dung chnh ca Chin lc quc gia v bin i kh hu

QUAN IM:
Vit Nam coi ng ph vi BKH l vn c ngha sng cn. ng ph vi bin i kh hu ca Vit Nam phi gn lin vi pht trin
bn vng, tn dng cc c hi i mi t duy pht trin, nng cao nng lc cnh tranh v sc mnh quc gia. Tin hnh ng thi cc hot ng thch ng v gim nh pht thi kh nh knh, trong thi k u thch ng l trng tm. ng ph vi BKH l trch nhim ca ton h thng; pht huy ni lc l chnh, tn dng hiu qu cc c ch hp tc quc t. Cc gii php ng ph vi bin i kh hu phi c tnh h thng, ng b, lin ngnh, lin vng, trng tm, trng im, ph hp vi tng giai on v cc quy nh quc t; Chin lc v bin i kh hu c tm nhn xuyn th k, l nn tng cho cc chin lc khc.
MC TIU CHIN LC:
Pht huy nng lc ca ton t nc, tin hnh ng

thi cc gii php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v gim nh pht thi kh nh knh, bo m an ton tnh mng ngi dn v ti sn, nhm mc tiu pht trin bn vng.
Tng cng nng lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu ca

con ngi v cc h thng t nhin, pht trin nn kinh t cc-bon thp nhm bo v v nng cao cht lng cuc sng, bo m an ninh v pht trin bn vng quc gia trong bi cnh bin i kh hu ton cu v tch cc cng cng ng quc t bo v h thng kh hu tri t.
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MC TIU C TH:
m bo an ninh lng thc, an ninh nng lng, an ninh

ngun nc, xa i gim ngho, bnh ng gii, an sinh x hi, sc khe cng ng, nng cao i sng, bo v ti nguyn thin nhin trong bi cnh BKH;
Nn kinh t cc-bon thp, tng trng xanh tr thnh xu

hng ch o;
Nng cao nhn thc, trch nhim v nng lc ng ph vi

bin i kh hu; tn dng cc c hi t bin i kh hu pht trin kinh t - x hi; pht trin v nhn rng li sng, mu hnh tiu th thn thin vi h thng kh hu.
Gp phn tch cc vi cng ng quc t trong ng ph

vi BKH; tng cng cc hot ng hp tc quc t ca Vit Nam ng ph hiu qu vi BKH.
CC NHM NHIM V CA CHIN LC: Thch ng: 1. Ch ng ng ph vi thin tai v gim st kh hu

a) Cnh bo sm b) Gim thit hi do ri ro thin tai
2. m bo an ninh lng thc v ti nguyn nc

a) An ninh lng thc b) An ninh ti nguyn nc
3. ng ph tch cc vi nc bin dng ph hp cc vng d b tn thng
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CC NHM NHIM V CA CHIN LC (tip): Thch ng v gim nh pht thi KNK: 4. Bo v, pht trin bn vng rng, tng cng hp th kh nh knh v bo tn a dng sinh hc Gim nh pht thi kh nh knh 5. Gim nh pht thi kh nh knh gp phn bo v h thng kh hu tri t
a) Pht trin cc ngun nng lng ti to, nng lng mi b) S dng tit kim, hiu qu nng lng
Sn xut cng nghip v xy dng Giao thng vn ti
c) Nng nghip d) Qun l cht thi
CC NHM NHIM V CA CHIN LC (tip):
Lin ngnh:
6. Tng cng vai tr ch o ca Nh nc trong ng ph vi BKH
a) iu chnh, lng ghp vn bin i kh hu vo cc chin lc, quy hoch, k hoch b) Hon thin v tng cng th ch a) Cng ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu b) Nng cp h thng chm sc sc khe cng ng ng ph hiu qu vi bin i kh hu c) Nng cao nhn thc, gio dc v o to
7. Xy dng cng ng ng ph hiu qu vi bin i kh hu
8. Pht trin KHCN tin tin trong ng ph vi bin i kh hu 9. Tng cng hp tc v hi nhp quc t nng cao v th quc gia trong cc vn v bin i kh hu 10. a dng ha cc ngun lc ti chnh v u t c hiu qu
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GIAI ON THC HIN CHIN LC
Giai on t nay ti 2012:

Cc hot ng thch ng cp bch, khng th tr hon cn phi c trin khai thc hin. Ch trng cc hot ng nng cao nng lc, tng cng KHCN v r sot, iu chnh, b sung cc c ch, chnh sch, chin lc tng trng xanh, thch ng vi BKH v gim nh pht thi KNK ph hp vi hon cnh quc t s c khng nh r rng hn sau nm 2012.
Giai on 2013 2025:

c bit quan tm n vn gim pht thi KNK bo v h thng kh hu tri t. Cc hot ng thch ng vi BKH v gim nh pht KNK c ng thi tin hnh gn lin vi pht trin kinh t - x hi ca t nc.
Giai on 2026 2050:

Gim pht thi kh nh knh tr thnh tiu ch trong cc hot ng pht trin kinh t - x hi. Cc nhim v Chin lc s c r sot, iu chnh, b sung vi nh hng pht trin mi nhm xy dng v cng c nn kinh t cc-bon thp c kh nng chng chu v thch ng cao vi cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu.
CC CHNG TRNH U TIN

1) Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu, xy dng k hoch m rng cho giai on 2016 2025. 2) Chng trnh khoa hc cng ngh quc gia v bin i kh hu. 3) n hin i ha cng ngh d bo v mng li quan trc KTTV n nm 2020. 4) Chng trnh ng bng sng Cu Long v Chng trnh ng bng sng Hng v qun l TNN v thch ng vi BKH. 5) n kim k, gim st pht thi kh nh knh v qun l cc hot ng gim thiu pht thi kh nh knh. 6) Chng trnh ng ph vi BKH cho cc th ln ca Vit Nam. 7) Chng trnh nng cp v ci to h thng bin, sng ph hp vi iu kin bin i kh hu v nc bin dng. 8) n nng cp h thng chm sc sc khe cng ng ph hp vi iu kin bin i kh hu v nc bin dng. 9) Chng trnh pht trin kinh t - x hi cc o dn sinh ng ph hiu qu vi bin i kh hu, nc bin dng. 10) n xy dng th im v nhn rng m hnh cng ng ng ph hiu qu vi BKH.
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Trn trng cm n!
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Nguyen Tung Lam, ISPONRE in MONRE
Hi tho nghin cu x hi cc bon thp 31 thng 5, 2012, H ni, Vit Nam
XY DNG KCH BN X HI CC BON THP VIT NAM

Kyoto University: Nguyen Thai Hoa, Kei Gomi, Yuzuru Matsuoka National Institute for Environmental Studies: Tomoko Hasegawa, Junichi Fujino, Mikiko Kainuma Institute of Strategy, Policy and Natural Resources: Nguyen Thi Thuy Duong, Nguyen Tung Lam, Nguyen Lanh, Nguyen Van Tai Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment: Huynh Thi Lan Huong, Tran Thuc Water Resources University: Nguyen Quang Kim Japan International Cooperation Agency: Hiroshi Tsujihara
Gii thiu
V sao cn xy dng mt x hi cc bon thp (LCS)? M hnh tng trng truyn thng ca cc nc pht trin thi ra mt lng ln kh nh knh. trnh lp li, nhng nc ang pht trin nh Vit Nam cn trnh v xy dng thng x hi cc bon thp. Mt trong cc mc tiu di hn ca Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia v ng ph vi bin i kh hu l tn dng c hi xy dng mt nn kinh t cc bon thp v Chin lc quc gia v bin i kh hu xem xt nn kinh t cc bon thp nh nhng nguyn tc pht trin bn vng; gim kh thi nh knh tr thnh mt ch tiu bt buc ca pht trin kinh t v x hi. gp phn cho nhng tho lun v LCS, nghin cu ny l mt kch bn LCS cho Vit Nam vo nm 2030.
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xy dng m hnh x hi cc bon thp:
S dng cng c m hnh ExSS v m hnh AIM/AFOLU Bottom up xc nh pht thi v gim kh nh knh trong lnh vc nng lng v nng, lm nghip v s dng t Mc tiu KNK: trong lnh vc nng lng ch xem xt CO2 , trong lnh vc nng lng v nng, lm nghip v s dng t xem xt CO2, CH4 and N2O
Phn I: Kch bn kinh t x hi vo nm 2030 Phn II: Pht thi/gim KNK trong lnh vc nng lng Phn III: Pht thi/gim KNK trong lnh vc AFOLU Phn IV: Chnh sch v hnh ng hng ti LCS
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Phn I: Kch bn kinh t x hi vo nm 2030
Phng php
1. 2. Thu thp s liu v c tnh cho nm c s (2005) Xy dng kch bn kinh t x hi cho nm 2030 bng m hnh ExSS
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M hnh ExSS
ExSS l mt cng c d bo lng ha cc kch bn LCS, do i hc Kyoto v Vin Nghin cu Mi trng quc gia ca Nht Bn pht trin. ExSS m t kch bn kinh t-x hi tng lai (dn s, kinh t, giao thng vn ti, s dng t, xy dng, v.v.), nhu cu nng lng, v kh nng pht thi v gim KNK. Kh nng gim KNK da vo d liu v cng ngh nng lng (c hai mt cung v cu), cc hot ng xy dng, thay i trong cu trc ngnh giao thng vn ti, thay i s dng t, hot ng nng nghip, thay i trong hnh vi tiu dng, v tim nng s dng nng lng ti to. M hnh c th dng xc nh tim nng gim pht thi c th ca cc gii php trong tng lnh vc.
Ni dung KT-XH trong ExSS

Xut khu hng ha u t Chi tiu ca Chnh ph T l nhp khu Ma trn h s u vo Tiu dng t nhn Din tch sn/n v u ra
Nhu cu dch v nng lng/ng lc u ra ngnh thng mi u ra ngnh sn xut
Dn s nm c s
T l tng dn s
Phn tch IO
u ra theo ngnh Dn s
Quy m h gia nh
S h gia nh Nhu cu vn ti hnh khch Chuyn i/ngi Khong cch chuyn i Loi hnh phng tin Hng ha/u ra
Din tch sn xy dng thng mi
Nhu cu vn ti hng ha
Nhu cu dch v nng lng

Cc bin s/tham s ngoi sinh Cc bin ni sinh 8
8 Khong cch vn ti
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Thu thp s liu (kinh t - x hi)

S liu Dn s H gia nh Bng IO Ngun Ban dn s - Dn s Vit Nam 2030, Tng c thng k (2008) iu tra dn s v nh Vit Nam (2009) Bng Input-output 2005 (Bi Trinh, 2009) JICA/B GTVT (2009): Nghin cu pht trin h thng giao thng vn ti bn vng Vit Nam (VISTRANSS 2)
Tng cc thng k (2009) Giao thng vn ti Schipper L., A. T. Le, O. Hans., 2008. Measuring the invisible. Quantifying emissions reductions from transport solutions. Hanoi case study. EMBARQ The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport and World Resources Institute. Walter, H. and R. Michael (1995). Motorization and non-motorized transport in Asia. Transport system evolution in China, Japan and Indonesia. Land Use Policy, Vol 13, No.1, pp. 69-84, 1996.
Gi thit 2030 BaU

Ch tiu Dn s C cu dn s Lng ha (Kch bn 2030BaU) 104 triu ngi [Nam] 0-14: 8%, 15-64: 35.9%, 65 v trn: 5.8% [N] 0-14: 7.7%, 15-64: 35.2%, 65 v trn: 7.4% 3.5 (4.2 ti 2005) 6.5% Hng ti T l tng 0.9 % /nm T l sinh nam cao hn n
S ngi trung bnh/h gia nh GDP
Gim nh theo quy m trung bnh ca h gia nh T l tng trng trung bnh hng nm trong giai on 2005 2030 Gim cng nghip s cp, tng CN th cp v th ba.
C cu cng nghip
[Nng nghip, Ng, Lm]: 17% (22% ti 2005) [Cng nghip, Xy dng]: 43% (41% ti 2005) [Dch v ]: 40% (37% ti 2005)
C cu cu C cu trong GTVT
ng gp ca xut khu trong GDP: 29% (29% ti 2005) Vn ti hnh khch: [St] 0%, [Bus] 0.6%, [Thy] 0.6%, [Xe con] 0.3%, [Xe my] 8.3% [i b & Xe p] 90%, [Hng khng] 0.1%
XK gi nguyn phn gp vo GDP Tng VT cng cng, ngi dn i b v xe p
10
76
c tnh cc ch tiu KT-XH

2005 Dn s (triu ngi) S h gia nh (triu) GDP (nghn t VND) Sn lng tng (nghn t VND) CN s cp (nghn t VND) CN th cp (nghn t VND) CN th ba (nghn t VND) Nhu cu vn ti hnh khch (triu ngi km) Nhu cu vn ti hng ha (triu tnkm) 83.1 20.0 818.5 1,934 404 1,033 497 223,981 38,856 2030 BaU 2030 CM 2030BaU/2005 2030CM/2005 104.0 29.7 3,963 9,750 1,684 5,497 2,569 542,687 235,212 104.0 29.7 3,963 9,750 1,684 5,497 2,569 518,028 235,124 1.3 1.5 4.8 5.0 4.2 5.3 5.2 2.4 6.1 1.3 1.5 4.8 5.0 3.9 5.2 5.2 2.3 6.1
11
D bo sn lng cc ngnh
12000
10000
Services Construction
8000
Capital goods Industrial materials Other consumer goods Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures Mining and quarrying Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry
Trill. VND
6000
4000
2000
0 2005 2030
12
77
D bo nhu cu vn ti
Nm 2030, tng th phn xe my v hng khng ni a Khi lng vn ti hng ha tng cn i vi tng trng ca cc ngnh th cp
600 500 400
Domestic aviation Walk & bike Inland waterway Train Car Motorbike
Billion ton.km
250 Domestic aviation 200 Inland waterway Train 150 Truck
Billion pass-km
Bus
300 200 100 0
100
50
2005
2030BaU
2030CM
2005
2030BaU
2030CM
Vn ti hnh khch
Vn ti hng ha
13
Phn II: pht thi/gim CO2 trong lnh vc nng lng
14
78
Phng php
1. 2. 3. Thu thp s liu v nhu cu v cung nng lng ti nm c s (2005) D bo 2030BaU (Pht trin bnh thng) v nhu cu nng lng v pht thi CO2 Xy dng kch bn cho nm 2030CM v nhng la chn gim pht thi
15
Energy part of ExSS

u ra theo ngnh Nhu cu dch v nng lng/ng lc Th phn thit b nng lng ngi sd cui Hiu qu NL thit b ngi sd cui Pht in phn tn (DPG) Hiu qu nng lng (DPG) Din tch sn xy dng thng mi Nhu cu vn ti hng ha Nhu cu vn ti hnh khch S lng h gia nh
Th phn nhin liu Hiu qu nng lng
Nhu cu dch v nng lng Nhu cu nng lng cui cng Pht in tp trung (CPG) Nhu cu nng lng (CPG) Cung nng lng s cp Pht thi CO2 Hiu qu nng lng (CPG) Th phn nhin liu (CPG) Tht thot ng truyn (CPG) T s dng (CPG)
Nhu cu nng lng (DPG)
Cc bin/tham s ngoi sinh
H s thi CO2 16
Cc bin ni sinh
79
D liu thu thp (nng lng)

D liu Ngun Ghi ch
Nhu cu nng lng
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE), 2003. Nhu cu nng lng cui cng theo ngnh Model Documentation Report. Office of Integrated Analysis and c tnh da vo Bng cn i nng lng Forecasting Energy Information Administration U.S Department of quc gia 2005 (C quan Nng lng quc t Energy Washington, DC. IEA). Cc s liu khc c vin dn c tnh mc chi tit nhu cu nng lng theo cc International Energy Agency (IEA), 2007. Energy balances of ngnh cng nghip v dch v. non-OECD countries 2004-2005. 2007 Edition. IEA statistics.
Cung cp nng lng
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2007. Energy balances of non-OECD countries 2004-2005. 2007 Edition. IEA statistics.
Tng cung nng lng v tiu th nhin liu c ly t EBT.
H s pht thi
IPCC(2006):2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas S dng gi tr Mc nh" ca mi loi nhin Inventories Volume 2 Energy, Chapter 1. Introduction, 1.4.2 liu . Emission Factors
17
Cc gi thit 2030 BaU

Lnh vc Bin s Tng Nhu cu nng lng cui Theo ngnh cng Theo loi nhin liu Gi thit T 2005 n 2030, tng nhu cu nng lng cui cng tng 5.1%/nm . T l tng cng nghip cao hn tng nhu cu.
Cc sn phm in v du tng vi t l cao hn tng cu.
Th phn nhin liu
Theo Trin vng Cung v Cu nng lng APEC (4th edition) v K hoch pht trin in Vit Nam (PDP VI) Nhan T. N., M. H. Duong, 2009. The potential for Mitigation of CO2 Emission in Vietnams Power Sector. DEPOCEN Working paper Series No. 2009/22.
Cung cp nng lng Hiu sut
18
80
D bo nhu cu nng lng cui cng theo ngnh
180 160 140 120

Mtoe
10
Commercial Industry
62
Residential Freight transport Passenger transport
100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 10 26 2 21 4 3 14 2030BaU 12 7 2030CM 46 37 53
19
D bo nhu cu nng lng s cp theo loi nhin liu
250
200 26 11 150
Mtoe
Coal 2 23 9 Oil Gas 5 3 Hydro power Nuclear Solar & Wind
27
100
66
21 43
50 23 5 12 8 2005 2 64
Biomass
40 2030BaU 2030 CM
20
81
D bo cung in
3% 2030 CM 40% 3% 27% 16% 6% 4% Coal Oil 2% 2% 2030BaU 46% 4% 27% 14% 5% Gas Hydropower Nuclear 2005 23% 7% 51% 19% Solar wind Biomass 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
21
D bo pht thi CO2
600
500
Commercial Industry Residential Freight transport
67 47 257 38 23 185 41
400
MtCO2
300
Passenger transport
200
100 10 39 15 2005
11 6
110
28 68
2030BaU
2030 CM
22
82
ng gp ca cc gii php cc bon thp

4
Residential
Fuel shift & Natural energy Energy efficiency improvement Energy saving behavior
11
13
Commercial
Fuel shift & Natural energy Energy efficiency improvement Energy saving
11
Industry
Fuel shift Energy efficiency improvement
16
23
Passenger Transport
Biofuel Energy efficient vehicle Publilc transport Biofuel Energy efficient vehicle Modal shift Energy efficiency and fuel shift
0
0.3
13
10
Freight Transport
24
39 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
23
Phn III: Pht thi/gim KNK trong cc lnh vc AFOLU
Power sector
24
83
Khung d bo
Quc gia: Vit Nam Nm: Nng nghip; 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 LULUCF; 2000-2030 (bc tnh 1 nm) Mc tiu KNK: CO2, CH4, N2O Cc ngun pht thi KNK: Ln men trong rut gia sc, phn gia sc, t canh tc, la v thay i s dng t, ngoi tr chy v xo ng t ai. Cc kch bn Bnh thng (BaU): khng c bin php no c thc hin C bin php: Cc gii php c thc hin vi cc loi thu cc bon
25
M hnh AFOLUB
S liu cc hot ng

M hnh AFOLUB
AG/Bottom-up LULUCF/Bottom-up
Pht thi/Gim thi
M hnh AFOLUB Dng m hnh T di ln xc nh s kt hp v s lng cc bin php gim thi n l c tnh pht thi v gim KNK trong cc lnh vc AFOLU Phn tch hiu qu ca cc chnh sch nh thu cascbon, thu nng lng, tr gi, v.v Khung thi gian: gia k (in hnh cho ti nm 2030) M hnh T di ln Nng nghip (AG/Bottom-up) M t hnh vi ca nhng nh sn xut nng nghip v la chn cc gii php gim thi Ti a ha li ch cho nh sn xut M hnh LULUCF/Bottom-up M t s dng t v thay i s dng t Ti a ha tng gim thi tch ly trong tng lai
26
84
u vo v kt qu ca m hnh AFOLUB
27
Ngun s liu
S liu hin ti v tng lai Cy trng v gia sc ti 2005-2009: Thng bo quc gia ln 2 ti UNFCCC (SNC) Nin gim thng k (2002, 2007 v 2009) B NN-PTNT, 2006 FAOSTAT, 2012, download S dng t ti 2000, 2005: SNC ResourceSTAT, FAOSTAT, 2011, download Nin gim thng k 2001(2002) S liu v cc gii php Thu thp trong nc v quc t Cc gii php trong LULUCF tham kho t SCN
Emission sources Enteric fermentation Code 3A1 Countermeasures Code RRC HGM CFL DSM MD FIR RAS HEF SRF TRM
Cc gii php trong ngnh Nng nghip

Cost Mitigation Reference [USD/activity/yr]* [tCO2eq/activity/yr]* -23 0.45 Bates(1998a), Shibata et al.(2010), Graus et al.(2004) 0 0.32 Bates(1998a) 44 0.62 USEPA(2006) 2.2 0.33 Bates(1998a) 0 0.89 USEPA(2006) 0 0.68 USEPA(2006) 20 0.24 USEPA(2006), Graus et al. (2004) 2.2 0.65 USEPA(2006), Hendriks et al. (1998), Amann et al. (2005) 2150 5 0.76 0.08 USEPA(2006), Akiyama et al.(2010) IPCC(2007), Smith et al.(2007)
Replacement of roughage with concentrates High genetic merit Manure management 3A2 Dome digester, cooking fuel and light Daily spread of manure Rice cultivations 3C7 Midseason drainage Fall incorporation of rice straw Replace Urea with Ammonium Managed soils 3C4~3C6 High efficiency fertilizer application Slow-release fertilizer application Tillage and residue management
* Activity is area of cropland for crop cultivation and animal numbers for livestocks.
28
85
Cc gi thit
Cc kch bn s dng t v thay i SD
Cc kch bn din tch thu hoch trong sn xut nng nghip
29
Cc gi thit
Cc kch bn gia sc (1)
Cc kch bn gia sc (2)
30
86
So snh tng lng pht thi KNK theo kch bn bnh thng trong cc lnh vc AFOLU
150 100
50 0 -50 -100 SCN, 2000 28 63 41 -50 82
2000 20 62 42 -50 74
2005 18 65 35 -48 70
2010 19 72 31 -47 75
2015 17 74 29 -46 74
2020 15 78 27 -45 76
2030 14 85 23 -43 79
Emission and removals from soils Emission from agriculture Forest and grassland conversion Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks TOTAL
31
So snh chi tit pht thi KNK trong Nng nghip vi kch bn BaU
90 80 70
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SCN, 2000 14 37 0 3 8 2000 13 37 2 2 8 2005 15 35 3 3 9 2010 17 36 4 3 12 2015 19 34 4 4 14 2020 21 33 4 4 16 2030 24 32 6 6 18
Managed soils (N2O) Rice field (CH4) Manure (N2O) Manure (CH4) Enteric fermentation (CH4)
32
87
Gim thi nm 2030 vi cc chi ph bin cho php khc nhau trong AFOLU
Gim thi nm 2030 [MtCO2] Nng nghip Ln men trong rut: gi tr di truyn cao Ln men trong rut: Thay th thc n th bng c c Qun l cht thi: cht thi hng ngy Qun l cht thi: Ni hm, nhin liu nu v n Trng la: Thay th ure bng amonium sun pht Trng la: Thoatst nc gia ma Trng la: Kt hp rm la ma thu t: s dng phn bn hiu sut cao t: Phn bn bay hi chm (Slow-release) Tng LULUCF Bo v v qun l bn vng cc din tch rng sn xut hin ti Bo tn rng bo v hin ti Trng cy pht trin nhanh ly g Tng Tng cng Chi ph bin cho php [USD/tCO2] <0 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.8 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 <10 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.8 1.8 6.7 3.4 2.9 0.0 20.8 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9 41.7 <100 1.6 2.6 0.0 2.8 1.8 6.7 3.4 2.7 0.8 22.7 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9 43.5 >100 1.8 2.5 4.9 0.1 1.8 6.7 3.4 2.4 2.8 26.6 3.1 16.5
33 20.9
47.5
1.3
Phn IV: Chnh sch v hnh ng hng ti LCS
34
88
Pht thi/gim thai KNK Vit nam nm 2030
700
36% reduction
600
Total emission reduction 222 Mt-CO2eq

LULUCF 21 MtCO 2 Agriculture 21 MtCO 2 Residential 28 MtCO 2 Commercial 10 MtCO 2 Industry 50 MtCO 2 Passenger transport 23 MtCO 2 Freight transport 29 MtCO 2 Power Supply 39 MtCO 2
GHGs emissions/reductions (MtCO2)
500
Lnh vc AFOLU Nng nghip LULUCF Nng lng H gia nh Thng mi Cng nghip Giao thng vn ti Tng
Pht thi KNK (MtCO2eq) 2030BaU 79 85 -6 522 110 41 257 114 601 2030CM 37 64 -27 342 68 28 185 61 379
Gim thi KNK (MtCO2eq) 42 21 21 180 42 13 71 53 222
400
4 times
300
601
200
379
100
151
GHG Emission
0 2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM
35
D bo mc pht thi KNK/ngi v cng pht thi
Pht thi KNK/ngi

0.20
Cng pht thi
7.0 6.0 5.8

tCO2/trill-VND
0.18 0.15 0.12 0.10
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM
t-CO2/capita
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM 0.7 1.8 3.7
36
89
Hnh ng hng ti x hi cc bon thp Vit Nam

Pht thi Gim thi Cc hnh ng hng ti LCS Vit Nam KNK nm 2030 (Triu tn CO2tng ng)
A1 7% A2 8%
F 50%
Mitigation po tential 42 MtCO 2
A3 29%
Cc lnh vc AFOLU Hnh ng A1 Qun l cht thi gia sc Hnh ng A2 Ln men trong rut gia sc Hnh ng A3 Qun l trong trng la Hnh ng A4 Qun l t Hnh ng F Qun l rng v s dng t
42 3 3 12 3 21 180 14 15 17 79 16 39 222
A4 7%
Tim nng gim thi trong lnh vc AFOLU
Lnh vc nng lng Hnh ng E1 Ta nh xanh Building Hnh ng E2 Giao thng thun tin Hnh ng E3 Hnh vi tit kim nng lng Hnh ng E4 Ci tin hiu qu nng lng Hnh ng E5 Chuyn i nhin liu trong CN Hnh ng E6 Cc nh my in thng minh Tng
Tim nng gim thi trong lnh vc nng lng
37
Hnh ng A1. Qun l cht thi gia sc

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
A1 7%
A4 7%
Hnh ng Qun l cht thi gia sc c k vng c th gip gim 2.8 MtCO2 ti AAC of 10 USD/tCO2, chim 7% tng lng pht thi KNK trong cc lnh vc AFOLU
8%
50%
29%
7%
Chi tit gim pht thi ca hnh ng A1 trong cc AAC khc nhau
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] Daily spread of manure Dome digester, cooking fuel and light Total Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] 0 0.0 2.8 2.8 10 0.0 2.8 2.8 100 0.0 2.8 2.8 100000 4.9 0.1 5.0
38
90
Hnh ng A2. Ln men trong rut gia sc

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
Hnh ng A2 c tnh ton gim 3.3 MtCO2 ti AAC vi gi 10 USD/tCO2 nm 2030. Hnh ng ny c 2 gii php chnh, l di truyn cao v thay th thc n kh bng c c, chim 8% tng lng pht thi KNK ca cc lnh vc AFOLU
A4 7%
7%
A2 8%
50%
29%
7%
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] High genetic merit Replacement of roughage with concentrates Total Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] 0 0.1 3.2 3.3 10 0.1 3.2 3.3 100 1.6 2.6 4.2 100000 1.8 2.5 4.3
39
Hnh ng A3. Qun l trong trng la

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
A4 7%
Hnh ng ny gp phn ln nht trong kh nng gim thi trong lnh va nng nghip (11.9 MtCO2 ti AAC gi 10 USD/tCO2), chim 29% tng gim thi KNK trong cc lnh vc AFOLU
7%
8%
50%
A3 29% 7%
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] Replace urea with ammonium sulphate Midseason drainage Fall incorporation of rice straw Total Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] 0 0.0 4.7 0.0 4.7 10 1.8 6.7 3.4 11.9 100 1.8 6.7 3.4 11.9 100000 1.8 6.7 3.4 11.9
40
91
Hnh ng A4. Qun l t

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
A4 7%
Hnh ng ny gp phn gim 2.9 MtCO2, chim 7% tng pht thi KNK trong cc lnh vc AFOLU. Hnh ng nay gm 2 bin php; s dng phn bn hiu sut cao v phn bc hi chm.
7%
8%
50%
29%
A4 7%
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] High efficiency fertilizer application Slow-release fertilizer Total Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 2.9 0.0 2.9 100 2.7 0.8 3.5 100000 2.4 2.8 5.1
41
Hnh ng F. Qun l Rng v S dng t

F 50%
A1 7%
A2 8%
A3 29%
Hnh ng ny c mc ng gp ln nht, chim 50% mc gim thi KNK trong AFOLU, hay 20.9 MtCO2 cc bin php chnh l bo v v qun l hiu qu cc khu vc rng hin c, bo tn cc vng rng bo v v trng cy pht trin nhanh
A4 7%
7%
8%
F 50%
29%
7%
Chi tit gim pht thi ca hnh ng F trong cc AAC khc nhau
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2] Protection and sustainable management of existing production forest areas Conservation of existing protection forests Planting fast-growing trees for lumber Total Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2] 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9 100 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9 100000 3.1 16.5 1.3 20.9
42
92
Hnh ng E1. Ta nh xanh
Hnh ng ny tp trung vo cc bin php chuyn i nhin liu v s dng nng lng t nhin ca hai lnh vc (dn dng v thng mi). Hnh ng ny c th gim 14.4 MtCO2, chim 8% tng lng gim thi KNK trong lnh vc nng lng
Chi tit gim pht thi ca hnh ng E1

CO2 emission reduction Contribution in the Action [%] [ktCO2] Residential Heating Hot water Cooking Commercial Heating Hot water Cooking Total 456 2306 338 14401 100% 8% 369 2040 8893 3099 22% 2% 11302 78% Contribution in total reduction in energy sector [%] 6%
43
Hnh ng E2. Giao thng thun tin
Hnh ng ny chuyn t phng tin c nhn sang cng cng bng h thng qun l giao thng v chuyn i nhin liu (t xng v du sang in v du sinh hc ).

CO2 emission reduction [ktCO2] Passenger transport Bio diesel vehicle Public transport Freight transport Bio diesel vehicle Modal shift Total 1107 4011 15049 100% 8% 335 9596 5117 34% 3% 9932 Contribution in the Action [%] 66% Contribution in total reduction in energy sector [%] 6%
44
93
Hnh ng E3. Hnh vi tit kim nng lng

Hnh ng ny c th gim 16.9 MtCO2 hay 9% ca tng lng gim thi CO2 trong llnh vc nng lng. Tp trung vo cc ni dung nh lm mt, si m, nc nng, ti khu vc h gia nh v thng mi trong cc lnh vc thng mi; v s dng nhit, hi v ng c trong lnh vc CN. Chi tit gim pht thi ca hnh ng E3
Contribution in total CO2 emission Contribution in the reduction in energy Action [%] reduction [ktCO2] sector [%] Residential Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Commercial Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Industry Furnace Boiler Motor Other Total 3182 3872 2250 1567 16917 36% 9% 51 594 581 108 163 93 106 10871 6% 94 109 525 2961 245 179 236 1697 10% 1% 4349 26% 2%
45
Hnh ng E4. Ci tin hiu qu nng lng

Hnh ng ny c th gim pht thi CO2 ti mi lnh vc nm 2030 78.8 MtCO2 hay 44% ca tng gim thi trogn lnh vc nng lng. Mc gim cao nht cho lnh vc GTVT l 37.3 MtCO2. Sau l cc lnh vc CN, h gia nh v thng mi, ln lt l 23.5, 12.8 v 5.2 MtCO2. Chi tit gim pht thi ca hnh ng A4
CO2 emission reduction Contribution in the Action [%] [ktCO2] Residential Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Commercial Cooling Heating Hot water Cooking Lighting Refrigerator Other electric equipment Industry Furnace Boiler Motor Other Passenger transport Motorbike Car Bus Train Ship Aviation Freight transport Truck Train Ship Aviation Total 12838 1460 127 857 5937 2275 940 1241 5159 795 969 822 303 1092 624 555 23484 14861 4757 974 2892 13431 4033 3355 3772 31 18 2221 23901 23698 10 179 13 78812 100% 44% 30% 13% 17% 7% 30% 13% 7% 3% 16% Contribution in total reduction in energy sector [%] 7%
46
94
Hnh ng E5. Chuyn i nhin liu trong CN

Hnh ng ny c th gim pht thi CO2 vo 2030 l15.7 MtCO2 hay 9% tng lng pht thi CO2 trong lnh vc nng lng . Nhin liu s dng trong lnh vc CV s gip chuyn t cng cc bon cao sang mc thp. V d chuyn t than v du sang dng kh t nhin.

Sector Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry Mining and quarrying Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures Other consumer goods Industrial materials Capital goods Construction Total CO2 emission reduction [ktCO2] 1335 2253 2067 3251 3037 1060 2667 15670 Contribution in Contribution in total reduction in the Action [%] energy sector [%] 9% 14% 13% 21% 19% 7% 17% 100% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 9%
47
Hnh ng E6. Nh my in thng minh

Hnh ng Nh my in thng minh c tnh gim pht thi CO2 nm 2030 l 26.6 MtCO2 hay 16% tng lng thi CO2 trong lnh vc nng lng. Hnh ng ny gm 4 bin php; l s dng ngun nng lng trong nc hiu qu, thc y s dng nng lng ti to, gim tht thot ng truyn v phn phi, pht trin nh my in ht nhn

Coal 2005 Fuel (ktoe) Efficiency (%) Generation (ktoe) Own-use (ktoe) Transmission loss (ktoe) Distribution (ktoe) 2030BaU Fuel (ktoe) Efficiency (%) Generation (ktoe) Own-use (ktoe) Transmission loss (ktoe) Distribution (ktoe) 2030CM Fuel (ktoe) Efficiency (%) Generation (ktoe) Own-use (ktoe) Transmission loss (ktoe) Distribution (ktoe) 22643 45 10189 279 694 9217 2438 38 926 25 63 838 15439 42 6484 178 441 5865 8028 100 8028 220 547 7261 3088 100 3088 85 210 2793 1853 100 1853 51 126 1676 772 40 309 8 21 279 30877 846 2102 27929 54260 36611 42 15377 421 1196 13759 3468 35 1214 33 94 1086 21244 40 8498 233 661 7604 11330 100 11330 310 882 10138 1619 100 1619 44 126 1448 1214 100 1214 33 94 1086 4046 30 1214 33 94 1086 40465 1109 3148 36207 79532 2132 36 769 21 84 663 679 31 213 6 23 184 4812 37 1770 49 194 1527 1845 100 1845 51 203 1592 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4597 126 505 3966 0 0 0 9467 Oil Gas Hydropower Nuclear Solar wind Biomass Total
48
95
Kt lun
Cc kch bn LCS ca Vit Nam ti nm 2030 c d bo qua s dng cc m hnh ExSS v AIM/AFOLU, Mc tiu KNK: CO2 t s dng nng lng, CO2, CH4 v N20 trong AFOLU Kch bn 2030BaU, pht thi KNK cao gp 4 ln, t nm 2005 l 151 MtCO2 ln 601 MtCO2 Kch bn 2030CM, pht thi KNK gim 36% so vi 2030BaU. Cng pht thi gim 20% Trong cc lnh vc AFOLU, pht thi KNK gp gim 57% theo kch bn 2030CM so vi mc ca kch bn 2030BaU. Cc bin php nh thot nc gia ma v chuyn i rng phng h hin ti l nhng bin php c mc gim thi cao nht. Trong lnh vc nng lng, khong 38% pht thi KNK c th c gim theo kch bn 2030CM so vi mc ca kch bn 2030BaU. Chuyn i nhin liu v hiu qu nng lng l nhng bin php gp phn gim thi cao nht trong lnh vc ny.
49
96
Panel Discussion
ng gp ca nghin cu khoa hc trong vic hnh thnh chnh sch cc bonthp Tho lun nhm
1. Nu nh chng ta khng th tin ti x hi cc bon thp, 2. X hi cc bon thp p ng c cht lng cuc sng vi t nhu cu nng lng 3. X hi cc bon thp cn thit k tt, hnh ng sm v i mi.
Thit k bi Hajime Sakai
Junichi FUJINO (fuji@nies.go.jp)

NIES (Vin nghin cu mi trng Nht bn)
Hi tho nghin cu x hi cc bon thp v kha o to ti Hanoi 31st May 2012, Ha Noi, Viet Nam
1
3vn tho lun nhm

LoCARNet: Nghin cu +Chnh sch +X(VD:doanh nghip)=> Makeithappen! 1. Loihnh nghin cu no cn thit lp chnh sch cc bonthp trong tm nhn di hn? 2. Kiu nghin cu no c th cung cp cho thit lp chnh sch cc bonthp 3. Hnh ng ca chng ta by gi l g?
97
Appendix
Photos of the Workshop
Group Photo
Opening Remarks Dr. Nguyen The Chinh, ISPONRE
Opening Remarks Mr. Akira Shimizu, JICA Vietnam Office
98
Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Secretariat of LCS-RNet/IGES
Panel Discussion
Floor of the Workshop
99
List of documents distributed to the participants in the workshop

Document distributed to all participants
A Low Carbon Society Development Towards 2030 in Vietnam, which is collaborated study between ISPONRE, IMHEN, Water Resources University, Kyoto University, NIES, and JICA.
Documents distributed to the participants for their references

LCS-RNet Secretariat/IGES
2011 Synthesis Report of the LCS-RNet Third Annual Meeting - Transition towards Low Carbon Societies in a Changing World: Science, Policy and Society for Low Carbon Development Pathways http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/2011_3rd_Annual_Meeting_of_the_LCS-RNet_in_Paris.pdf 2010 Synthesis Report of the LCS-RNet Second Annual Meeting http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/2nd%20Annual%20Meeting%20of%20LCS-RNet_Berlin.pdf 2009 Achieving a low carbon society - Synthesis Report: Inaugural Meeting of the LCS-RNet http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/2009SynthesisReportEN.pdf Malaysia workshop on Asian Low Carbon Society: From Malaysia to Asia http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/201203_malaysia.pdf Cambodia Workshop on Scientific Approach to Low-Carbon Development Planning in Cambodia http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/LCS-RNet_Cambodia_Synthesis.pdf Thailand Workshop on Transition towards Low Carbon Societies in Thailand and Asia - Dialogue between Policy-makers and Researchers and Cross-sectoral Approach http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/2011SynthesisReport_Thailand.pdf Indonesia Workshop on Towards Sustainable Low-Carbon Development and Green Growth in Indonesia and Asia-Linking Research and Policyhttp://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/2010BogorSynthesisReport.pdf Introduction to Low Carbon Societies http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/pdf/2010LCS-RnetBro_EN.pdf
NIES
Low-Carbon Asia Scenarios and Actions, Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Every Asia Low Carbon Scenario study displayed I the workshop is downloadable from http://2050.nies.go.jp/report.html
Asia Low Carbon Societies (LCS) Research Project. http://2050.nies.go.jp/file/S-6_leaflet_E.pdf
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Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Vietnam Grand Plaza hotel, Hanoi, May 31, 2012 Participants List
The Government of Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)
Nguyen The Chinh Nguyen Trung Thang Nguyen Thang Nguyen Tung Lam Phan Tuan Hung Nguyen Ngoc Le Pham Thi Minh Thuy Dang Quoc Thang Nguyen Hoang Minh Chung Henk Jin Nguyen Trong Hieu Luong Quang Huy Le Thi Ha Thu Nguyen Sy Linh Nguyen Van Huy Hoang Ngoc Han Vice Director, Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE) Vice Director, ISPONRE Vice Director, ISPONRE Manager, Dept. of Integrated Research, ISPONRE (Speaker) Chief of Office, ISPONRE Deputy Chief of Office, ISPONRE Deputy manager, Department of Land Management and Real Estate, ISPONRE Deputy head, Dept. of Economics of NRE, ISPONRE Official, Dept. of Integrated Research, ISPONRE Korean supervisor in green growth project, ISPONRE Specialist, Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (DMHCC office, Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE) Official, DMHCC, MONRE (Speaker, on behalf of Mr. Truong Duc Tri, Vice Director of DMHCC in MONRE) Official, Dept. of Integrated Research, ISPONRE Researcher, Dept. of Integrated Research, ISPONRE Researcher, Dept. of Integrated Research, ISPONRE Researcher, Dept. of Integrated Research, ISPONRE
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Nguyen Thi Thuy
Researcher, Dept. of Economics of NRE, ISPONRE
Phan Thi Truong Giang Researcher, Dept. of Economics of NRE, ISPONRE Nguyen Thanh Huyen Nguyen Thi Thu Ha Phung Thi Cham Huynh Thi Lan Huong Researcher of Economic department, ISPONRE Researcher, ISPONRE Researcher, Dept. of Natural Resources and Biodiversity management, ISPONRE Researcher, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN)
Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI)

Nguyen Manh Hai Pham Minh Hai Nguyen Manh Hung Nguyen Ngoc Hai Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh Nguyen Nam Phuong Deputy head, Dept. of Policies and Public services Central Institute for Economic Management, Vietnam (CIEM), MPI Official, Agenda 21 office, Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) Official, Department of General Statistic, MPI Official, Department of Strategy, MPI Department of Science Education and Environment, MPI (Speaker) Official, Viet Nam General Statistics Office, MPI
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)

Mai Van Trinh General Director, Institute of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)
Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT)

Tran Minh Khoa V Ngoc Duc Energy specialist, Department of Energy, Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) Official, Center of Renewable energy, Institute of Energy, MOIT
Embassy, Organizations, NGOs, Universities

Cha Dong Won Le Thi Ngoc Bich Nguyen Tu Uyen Ministry of Construction, Housing Bureau British Embassy Department of Sustainable Development, AusAID Development organization, Australia
102
Phan Quynh Nhu Le Thi Thuy Lan Nguyen Danh Son Tran Thi Phuong Nguyen Nguyet Nga Ngo Duc Thanh Pham Thi Lan Phuong Bui Nguyet Anh
General Secretary, Fresh Air Network of Vietnam, Vietnam Clean Air Partnership (VCAP) Official, Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) Specialist of Substain Development, Social Science Institute Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Lecture, University of Trade Lecturer, National University Interpreter Interpreter
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Vietnam Office

Akira Shimizu Tadashi Suzuki Naoki Mori Hiroshi Tsujihara Takako Ono Pham Thu Hien Nguyen Thanh Ha Truong Quynh Trang Hoang Thu Thuy Le Thi Hoa Senior Representative, JICA Vietnam office Representative, JICA Vietnam office JICA Expert, Climate Change Program Advisor for Support Program to Respond to Climate Change JICA expert in MONRE, Ministry of the Environment, Japan JICA Expert, Chief Advisor of Project for Capacity Building of National Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Vietnam Assistant of JICA expert JICA Vietnam office JICA Vietnam office JICA Vietnam office JICA Vietnam office
Secretariat of International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCSR-Net) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Shuzo Nishioka Tomoko Ishikawa Secretary General, Secretariat of LCSR-Net/ IGES (speaker) Chief Secretary, Secretariat of LCSR-Net/IGES
103
Takako Wakiyama
Associate Researcher, LCSR-Net/IGES
Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka Kei Gomi Nguyen Thai Hoa Professor, the Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University Program-Specific Researcher, the Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University PhD student, the Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Inc

Kazuya Fujiwara Consultant, Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Inc
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

Mikiko Kainuma Junichi Fujino Yumiko Asayama Fellow, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, NIES Senior Researcher, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, NIES Research Associate, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, NIES
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Overview of the AIM Training workshop in Hanoi, Vietnam

Following the LCS workshop, an Asia-Pacific Integrated Motel (AIM) training workshop was held in the meeting room of ISPONRE from the afternoon of May 31, 2012. AIM is a group of computer models, which has been developed by Kyoto University, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and several other research institutes in the Asian-Pacific region since 1990. Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University delivered a lecture to the participants about the purpose and methodology of AIM models. After Prof. Matsuoka, Dr. Kei Gomi, Kyoto University, introduced the Extended snapshot tool (ExSS), which is an Input-Output type model for describing and evaluating low carbon society using social accounting matrices, energy balance tables, land use transition matrix, GHG emission and reduction tables of the target societies. Dr. Kazuya Fujiwara, Mizuro Information & Research Institute, Inc, explained the AIM/Enduse, which is national and local level bottom-up engineering type model for technology selection and energy supply/consumption. On the morning of June 1, more intensive discussions on the Vietnamese LCS scenario and model development were held as part of the workshop between delegates from Kyoto University and ISPONRE researchers. Ms. Nguyen Thai Hoa presented the data and assumptions behind the scenario. Responding to questions from the ISPONRE side on the model and data, Ms. Hoa and Prof. Matsuoka introduced the theory and function of the model and pointed out that the reliability and quality of data is not a problem of the model itself, though it should be considered seriously as it affects the quality of output of the model.
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Proceedings: Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam
Year: 2012 This report is based on the presentation documents at the Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam held on May 31, 2012. Presentation documents are downloadable from the website http://2050.nies.go.jp/symposium.html

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Workshop Proceedings Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam

May 31, 2012

Grand Plaza Hotel, Hanoi

Proceedings Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam

Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Vietnam

9:50-10:30 10:30-10:50 10:50-11:20 11:20-12:00

Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam Summary

National Climate Change Strategy and Green Growth Strategy

A Low Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in Vietnam

Asia Low Carbon Research Network (LoCARNet)

3. Compilation of Speakers Presentation English

Truong Duc Tri, Deputy Director of DMHCC in MONRE

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENT

NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

2. National Strategy on Climate change contents

Promote national capacity, carry out solutions of climate

Strenghthen human ability and natural system to

Ensure food security, energy security, water security, poverty

2. Ensure food security and water resources

3. Positively respond to sea level rise in accordance with vulnerable areas.

c) Agricuture d) Waste management

THE TASKS OF STRATEGIC (cont):

Strengthen the leading role of Government in responding to climate change

Build community to effectively respond to climate change

10. Diversificate effective financial resources and investment.

From now on to 2012:

Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, DSENRE in MPI

TheVGGSisdrivenbythesethreenationalpolicy agendaandVietNamawarenesstocontributeto internationaleffortstocombatclimatechange.

Feasibilityassessmentofproposedlowcarbon options Reviewsonselectedissues:

Time duration: 2011 2020 with Vision towards 2050

0.00 Baseline(SNC) VGGSDomestic VGGSint.support

2010 169.20 169.20 169.20

2020 300.40 270.36 255.34

2030 515.80 421.45 344.35

3. Acceleratethedevelopmentofgreenindustries 4. Developmentofsustainableinfrastructure 5. Innovatetechnologiesandrolloutcleanerproduction

Communicateandraiseawarenesstoallpeopleon thegreengrowthstrategy. Conductresearch,promulgateandemploytheuseof economicandtechnicalstandardsandinitiatethe developmentofadatabaseongreengrowth

Developfinancialinfrastructure andmarketbasedmechanism(newmechanism Climatefinance GreenpublicProcurement masterplan Publicawarenesscampaigns

Nguyen Tung Lam, ISPONRE in MONRE

DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY

To create a LCS society:

Part I: Socio-economic scenario in 2030

Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)

Socio-economic part of ExSS

Data collection (socio-economic)

2030 BaU Assumptions

Average number of persons per household

Slight decrease in average size of household

Average annual growth rate during the period 2005 - 2030

Estimated socio-economic indicators

223,981 542,687 518,028 38,856 235,212 235,124

Projected industrial output

Projected transport demand

600 500 400

Domestic aviation Inland waterway Train 150 Truck

300 200 100 0

Part II: CO2 emissions/mitigations in Energy sector

Energy part of ExSS

Fuel share Energy efficiency

Energy demand (DPG)

Transmission loss (CPG) Own use (CPG)

Exogenous variables Parameters

CO2 emission factor