InsiderInsights:ChicagoTeachersUnion Strike&TheFirstPresidentialDebate October8,2012

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Education Insider is a monthly report and webinar that cuts through the noise and provides realtime insights on national education policy trends, debates, and issuesfrom the handful of decision makers that are really driving the process. We combine a survey of key education influencers with our own analysis to provide a unique perspective on the current state of debate. Who Are The Insiders? Influential leaders who are shaping federal education reform, including individuals who have or are currently serving as key policy and political insiders, such as: Current and former White House and U.S. Department of Education leaders Current and former Congressional staff State education leaders including state school chiefs and former governors Leaders of major education organizations, think tanks and other key influentials
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INTRODUCTION

ExecutiveSummary Thissurveyprovidesabriefrecapofthe firstPresidentialdebate,aswellasinsights ontheChicagoTeachersUnionStrike.

Keyhighlightsinclude: 62%ofInsidersbelievethattheunionwonthe strike. InsidersgaveGovernorRomneyasolidBforhis educationfocuseddebatecomments,while PresidentObamareceivedaC. While66%ofInsidersdeemedGovernor Romneyscommentsoneducationmoreeffective, manyindicatedthatitwasclosertoatiethana clearwin.

Photo:CraigF.Walker,TheDenverPost

INTRODUCTION

TableofContents

CHICAGOTEACHERSUNIONSTRIKE FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

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CHICAGOTEACHERSUNIONSTRIKE

WhoWonandLostintheChicagoTeachersUnionStrike? Insiders overwhelmingly feelthatthe unionclearlywon theCTUstrike. Nearly30%of Insidersfeltthat parentsand studentswere theoneswho reallylost.
Question:WhowonandlostintheChicagoteacherstrike?Why?

WhoWon?
Theunion TheMayor Other

29%

9%

62%

CHICAGOTEACHERSUNIONSTRIKE

InsiderInsight:WhoWonandLostintheChicago TeachersUnionStrike?
Why?
Whentheuniongoesontourtoothercitiestoteachotherunionshowtobargain,youknow theywon. [Unionmembers]wereabletoholdthelinelocally,andgetalmostalltheywanted. Thedetailsonthecontractarenotfavorabletothecity.Theypreservedoneareaofauthority hiringintheeventoflayoffsbutgaveawayprettymucheverythingelse.Anembarrassment. CTUwonthebattleofpublicperception.Whilethemayorultimatelygotwhathewanted,the unionstooduptohimandappearedtobethepublicwinner. Itsprettyobvious.Theunionprevailedonagreatmanymoreofthepointsincontentionthan didthemayorandmaybankruptthecityintheprocess. Norealvictoryforreform.Theunionknewthemayorsweaknesshavingahugeconflagration inthemiddleofhispalspresidentialcampaignandpickedhimapartbecauseofthe vulnerability. Onsubstance,especiallyevaluation,itwasmostlyawin. Strikesarerarelywin/losepropositions.Whatisremarkableishowpredictabletheoutcome wasbasedonwherethepartieswerepositionedinJune.Itwasabouttheonlysettlement imaginable.
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CHICAGOTEACHERSUNIONSTRIKE

InsiderInsight:WhatWilltheNationalEffectoftheStrikeBe, ifAny,GoingForward?
Negativeforteacherunions. Itmaycausetheunionstobeginnegotiatingdifferently,anditcertainlywill causeunionmembershiptobelievethattheycangetmorebynegotiating harder. Bigwinforlaborandgoingtobeharderforunionleaderstocompromise;their memberstastebloodinthewaternow. Littlenationaleffect,otherthantheunionsnowbeingemboldenedtotakeup similarfights. Notmuch.Itwillscarereformers,especiallyDemocrats.Buttheresnogoing backtotheolddays.Thewargoeson,withtheunionsstillholdingalotof cards. UnionshavebeenhithardbypubliccriticismbaseduponthepostWaitingfor Superman environment,sothisprettyunequivocalwin,withoutcedingmuch groundtogetit,mightemboldenunionsinotherstatesfacingthreatening thingslikeevaluationsystems,weakenedbargainingrights,etc. Onlythatpeoplerealizehowawfulstrikesareforkids.Wewontseeanother oneoftheseanytimesoon. Thebiggestlessonisthesimplest:dontintroducemajorchangesto performancebasedteacherevaluationinthesameyearasthepromisetoclose 40schoolsinaplacewheregoodteachersdonothaveanybettershotatajob thantheworstonesbecauseofChicagosdecentralizedhiringpractices. Especiallyafterthreateningtomakepeopleworkmuchlongerforalittleextra payandthenbackingdown.Itisarecipeforastrike.
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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

GradingtheCandidatesResponsesonEducationattheFirst PresidentialDebate,October3,2012 Insidersgave Romneythe edgeinterms ofaddressing educationin thefirst debate.

PresidentObama
32% 36% 23% 9% 0% A B C D F A

GovernorRomney
27% 32% 27% 14% 0% B C D F

Question:BasedonthefirstPresidentialDebate,heldlastnight,pleasegradethecandidatesontheirresponses/commentsoneducation?

FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

InsiderInsight:GradingtheCandidates
Why?
Romneyhadspecifics,supportedissueshesharedwithObama.Obamaturnedwhatcould havebeenopportunityintoanargumentformoremoneyperiod,andafailedaccusationthat Romneywantedtoreducefunding.Itwasashallowdefenseofwhatisactuallysolidpolicy. Romneywasstrong,butcouldnotarticulatetheroleofthefederalgovernmentineducation. Obamawasterribleinthedebate.Educationwasoneofhishighpoints,sadly.Butheover claimsresultsandunderestimatestheholehesdugforhimselfpolicywisegoingforward, especiallywiththewaivers. Mixedbagforboth.ObamacontinuestociteRttTandhisSTEMteacherplansashis success/planforthefuturewithoutreallybeingchallengedonhoweitherwillbefundedandthe moneythatmightbedivertedfromotherpriorityspending,suchasTitleI,PartB,etc.Romney, forobviouspoliticalreasons,wonttakethebaitonthehiringteachersissue,buthasmadesome measuredstatementsaboutRttTandhoweffectiveitactuallyisproving. TitleIvouchers,Mr.Governor?Please.Andalsolyingaboutnotcuttingeducationfunding.If theRomneyRyanbudgetisjustthat,educationfundinggetscut.

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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

CandidatesAlignmentonEducationPolicy
Educationmay betheonearea wherethereis trulybipartisan agreement. Insiders generallybelieve thatthetwo candidatesare nottoodistant oneducation policy.

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

36%

23% 18% 9% 5% 0% 5% 5% 0% 0%

CompleteDisagreement

CompleteAgreement

PresidentObamaandGovernorRomneydiscussedtheirsimilaritiesanddifferencesoneducationlastnight.Onascaleof110,with10beingcomplete agreementand1beingcompletedisagreement,howmuchdothecandidatesactuallyagreeoneducationpolicy?

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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

InsiderInsight:HowMuchdotheCandidatesReallyAgreeon Education?
Why?
HigheredseemstobethebigdifferenceonK12differentprioritiesbutbothwillingtousethefederalrole alot. ItshardtotellhowbigthinkingRomneyisoneducation.Ifhestrulyintentonbeingatransformative presidentwhochallengesnotionsaboutfederalism,borrowedspending,etc.,hemightbeverydifferentthan Obama,andtrulyconsolidateDept.ofEd.orblockgrantfederalspending(imaginingallofthatcouldpass Congress).Ontheotherhand,ifheturnsouttobearegularpolacceptingpoliciesonlysofarastheycanbe publiclysupported,IcanenvisionhimmaintainingcurrentspendingandevenallowingacompromiseESEA reauthorization(imaginingevenfurtherthatcouldhappeninthenextfouryears)thatauthorizesi3,Promise Neighborhoods,andRacetotheTopaslongasitgenerallyreducesthefederalroleinaccountability, assessments,andstandards. Verysimilar,onlybigdifferencewouldbethevoucherprogramRomneyisclaimingwillbepartofhisagenda. Ithinkthereisactuallyahighdegreeofsimilarity.Ithinkthebiggestdifferenceistheirpositionson vouchers. Bigdifferencesarevouchers,spendinglevelsandmaybeCommonCore.

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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

GovernorRomneyandEducationBudgetCuts WhileGovernor Romneyseemed topledgeto protecteducation frombudgetcuts ifheiselected, Insidersdonot believehewould actuallybeable tomaintainthis promise.
Giventhefiscalchallengesfacingthegovernmentis thispledgepossibletomaintain?

59% 41%

Yes No

Question:GovernorRomneyseemedtopledgetoprotecteducationfrombudgetcutsunderhisadministration.Giventhefiscalchallengesfacingthe governmentisthispledgepossibletomaintain?

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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

InsiderInsight:GovernorRomneyandEducationBudgetCuts
Why? Overallspendinglevelshecanprotect,buthellhavetomovealotofthingsaround. SomePellreformwouldfreeupsomedollars. ItsPOSSIBLEtomaintain[currentfundinglevels]butassumingRomneyisseriousabout tacklingthedeficit,andconsideringthefactthatdiscretionaryspendingonsocial programsisaloteasiertocutthanentitlements(or,inRomneyscase,Defense)Ithinkits highlyunlikelythateducationwillbespared. BUTtherewontbeincreases.Thatsthekey. Nodeficithawkcancrediblyclaimthateverysinglespendingitemisntripetobe trimmed,especiallyEDwhichhasseensignificantgrowthoverthepast10years.Eitherhe misspoke,wentintothedebatepreparedtosaywhateverheneededto,orsimplyhas changedhismind,theideathatanynondefense,discretionaryspendingitemcan automaticallybeexemptisfoolish. Budgetsaredecisionsaboutwheretoinvestwecouldeasilymakethedecisionthat educationistheplacetoinvest.ImnotsureRomneywouldmakesuchadecision,butit couldbedone.

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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

WhoHadtheMoreEffectiveMessageonEducation? Insidersbelieve thatGovernor Romneyhadthe moreeffective messageon educationduring thefirstdebate.

PresidentObama GovernorRomney

33% 67%

Question:Whohadthemoreeffectivemessageoneducationlastnight,PresidentObamaorGovernorRomney?Why?

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FIRSTPRESIDENTIALDEBATE

InsiderInsight:WhoHadtheMoreEffectiveMessageonEducation?
Why? Gov.Romneybutbarely,Idontthinkeitherwasverycompellingonthistopic. Likethedebateoverall,Romneywasjustcrisper. Voterswanttobelievetheyhavechoices.Romneyofferedthat. Moreexperiencepersonallyingettingstudentgains(notjustpassingpolicies). choiceandbustingupthestatusquoaremorerobustthanbraggingonagovernment program(RttT). Idactuallysayitwasadraw.IntheendthatistoRomneysbenefitsincehehasthe politicallytougherargumenttomakeandObamahasthemorepoliticallyfavorable historytoshare. ObamawasclearerandRomneyfocusedonvouchers. Itwasawash.Noonereallyscoredoneducation.
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