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10 Predictive analytics in employee retention. 11 Conclusion 11 IBM SPSS products for predictive analytics 12 About IBM Business Analytics
Human Capital Management involves a number of different areas, including recruitment management, career training and skills development, and the reduction of turnover or attrition. In this paper, we will not focus on providing a comprehensive set of best practices for these areas. Instead, we will focus on providing concrete examples of how statistical analysis and predictive analytics have helped organizations solve specific problems related to human capital management. In general, predictive analytics combines technologies for analyzing past, present, and projected future relationships among data points with decision management technologies for delivering predictive insights and recommended actions to the systems or people that can effectively implement them. SPSS was one of the pioneers in the field of data analysis; it was first on the scene and continues to be one of the most popular and widely used software applications. As a new member of the IBM organization, SPSS brings its leading-edge analytic products and solutions to an even greater number of organizations worldwide. IBM SPSS offerings include industry-leading products for data and text mining, data collection, statistics and management that can assist in your companys human capital management through the predictive analysis of recruitment priorities, career management, and employee satisfaction and retention. IBM SPSS tools are based on industry standards and can easily integrate with your existing infrastructure to improve accuracy, decrease manpower and minimize loss. The combined effort of IBM and SPSS brings you the utmost in flexibility in the kinds of data you mine and how you deploy results.
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Highlights:
IBM SPSS predictive analytics can help organizations solve several specific problems related to human capital management. By becoming better able to anticipate and plan for their needs, organizations can more efficiently recruit staff, make the best use of their skills and help people advance in their careers.
IBM SPSS technologies for predictive analytics encapsulate advanced mathematical and statistical expertise to extract predictive knowledge that, when deployed into existing processes, makes them adaptive to improve outcomes. Our predictive analytics software will help you:
Capture all the information you need about peoples attitudes and opinions Predict the outcomes of interactions before they occur Act on your insights by embedding analytic results into business processes
Business benefits:
Some of the aspects of human capital management that benefit most from IBM SPSS predictive analytics are:
Recruitment: More easily identify the most suitable candidates to fill positions Career management: Spot the criteria that predict high on-the-job performance and job satisfaction Retention: Determine which factors contribute to employee attrition, allowing for better workforce planning
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order to create a general predictive model describing whether the recruiting office is attracting the interest of the right type of individual, but it is typically not sufficient in helping to create a model to predict recruiting success at an individual level. In order to successfully create a predictive model for recruiting, the recruiting office will need to collect that same information and maintain it alongside a historical list of which individuals were successfully signed or contracted. That information can then be maintained alongside a database of each persons career performance record in order to create predictive models for retention at an individual level. In situations where it is possible to retain demographic characteristics and a history, such as for a university recruiting and enrollment drive, predictive models can be created that help explain what factors are predictive or enrollment. The model can then be applied to new recruits to gauge their enrollment potential. Figure 1 is an example of data collected in a recruiting and enrollment drive by a university. When a potential student has contact with the university, the information provided by the student is maintained in a database. Over time, additional data is collected through phone calls initiated by the student or school, through a number of visits, and includes standardized test scores as well as demographic information. Academic recruitment offices also typically maintain a flag field that states whether that person applied for enrollment in the university. Over a period of time, the university may have collected data on thousands of potential students. An experienced recruiting staff would likely be able to focus on a few key variables that their experience shows determine whether a potential student will apply to the school.
Figure 3: An interactive heat map showing combined SAT scores by enrollment status
and interest in a department.
The office, however, may be collecting a good amount of likely enrollment predictors, including distance from school, high school grade point averages, and department or major of interest. Individually, there are many variables that could be identified as important factors in
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determining a likely applicant. However, the challenge for any recruiter, when faced with a rich set of data, is determining the relative importance of each variable. In addition, it is important to determine how the likelihood of enrollment might be affected by different combinations of values in the predictor variables. For example, a person with a high combined SAT score might still have a low likelihood to apply if they have had very little contact with the university. Likewise, those with a small number of contacts with the university might still have a high likelihood to apply if their current residence is a very short distance from the university. By using a predictive modeling algorithm, this schools recruiters are able to create models that distinguished which combination of variables and values tended to lead to an enrollment application, and which combination do not. The resulting model can then be used to score new cases for which the outcome was not yet known. The model is able to not only predict which cases would likely lead to enrollment, but also provides a propensity score for each classification, making it easy to prioritize cases for the recruiters. A view of the model, in Figure 4, on the next page, shows an example rule found in a dataset. This model was generated by an auto-modeling classification technique. Auto-modeling selects the best technique based on the data and the outcome and automatically creates a powerful ensemble (combination) model that is typically more stable and more accurate than one based on a single technique. When the predictive model is applied to new data, every case is scored against the set of rules created by the model in order to classify the likely outcome, as shown in Figure 5.
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another or one department to another. These attributes are often obtained through opinion surveys, satisfaction surveys, and past performance reviews. This type of data, while often subjective, can provide a framework for creating a predictive performance model.
Figure 4. A rule describing which students are most likely to apply for enrollment.
Figure 5. This shows two new variables (columns). The first is a prediction of whether this person is likely to apply at the university. The second is the propensity score for this prediction.
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absence of a complete and common set of quantifiable data for model creation, data collected on a persons beliefs, outlook, and attitude can augment the accuracy of a predictive performance model. This hypothesis can be tested by analyzing job performance in a controlled environment, where every person shares a similar environment, similar work expectations, and for the most part changes are applied equally to all persons. An example of such an environment is a university-level military academy. In a military academy, almost all individual variables, such as academic expectations, student housing, and extracurricular activities are fairly well controlled. In addition, all students share a somewhat common expectation of their careers after graduation. For example, a military academy collected more than 200 separate data points from incoming freshmen. Recruiters and administrators were interested in creating a model to predict the likelihood of an incoming cadet successfully completing the four-year program, as well as the likelihood of their exceeding the minimum length of service commitment after completing the academic program. Given the large number of potential predictor variables in the dataset, the first step, after data cleansing, was to screen, rank, and select the predictor variables. In this example, all candidate predictors were screened to remove unwanted or problematic variables, such as variables with too many missing values, values that represent unique values like ID, or variables with a very low coefficient of variation. The ranking process calculated the importance value of each variable by finding the p value of the appropriate statistical test of association between the candidate predictor and the target variable. In this case, the each predictor was tested against the target flag field (yes or no) that indicated whether an incoming student exceeded the target length of service (5 years). Finally, the selecting process used a statistical measure based on the total number of candidate predictors in order to select a subset of the most relevant or highly ranked predictors. The four most important predictors were obtained from quantifiable data. This result was expected, since past academic success is often an indication of future academic success and dedication to a specific long-term goal. A more surprising result was that of the other 32 predictors chosen as most important in predicting the future performance of an incoming freshman, 21 were based on their opinions, values, and beliefs. The students opinions on their life, academic priorities, dress code, and separation from family and friends all ranked higher than high school SAT or ACT test scores in determining future success. Figure 6 shows how attitudinal data and structured data may be combined for analysis.
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Figure 6. IBM SPSS Modeler can consolidate data visually from multiple sources, such as demographics data and attitudinal data.
Do I like my experiences working at this job? Do I approve of how this organization functions?
From those two questions, a number of other more specific questions can be derived that explore the different aspects of the work environment, including recognition, teamwork, and pay and benefits. These questions can be asked in a number of different ways. Some of the questions can be easily presented as binary response. For example, an employer may ask Do you feel that your health and safety is a priority within our company? Other questions are better presented as multiple-choice questions or in Likert-scale format. (The format of a typical five-level Likert item is: 1=strongly disagree, 2=disagree, 3=neither agree nor disagree, 4=agree, and 5=strongly agree.)
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IBM SPSS text analytics provides a technical foundation for extracting usable knowledge from unstructured text data through identification of core concepts and sentiments. Text analytics allows users to understand the relationships between concepts and the sentiment around concepts, and ultimately create a structure for unstructured text data that can be integrated with analytics. IBM SPSS technology uses a linguistic-based approach, rather than frequency or statistically-based approach, which provides for richer analysis and a deeper understanding of the underlying concepts.
Figure 7: A view into text analytics within IBM SPSS Modeler Premium. On the left is a list of extracted categories and on the right is a visual representation of the linkages between concepts and sentiments (sentiment analysis).
For example, a survey may be administered to recruits to gauge sentiment towards a new recruiting initiative. Some of the questions are typically Likert-scale items (for example, How effective was this initiative? 1=very effective, 2=somewhat effective, 3=neutral, 4=somewhat ineffective, 5=very ineffective). The final question is open-ended and asks each recruiter to comment on the new recruiting initiative. Considering the large number of recruiters providing comments, reading and categorizing every persons open-ended responses is a daunting task. Manual categorization typically results in inconsistencies between analysts and is also time consuming. By using IBM SPSS Modeler Premiums integrated text mining workbench, natural language processing is used to extract concepts from the survey comments. Rich, industry-specific linguistic resources that span over 180 linguistic taxonomies allow the user to explore relationships between concepts and sentiments within the text. For example, concepts related to a soldiers family may be automatically included in a type called family. Text link analysis extracts not just the type, but the sentiment associated with the type. For example, a comment related to worries about leaving family may be categorized into a negative family category while a comment related to the positive feelings around providing for the family may be categorized into positive family category. Finally, a set of categories is created to provide a high-level grouping for each response. This categorization can be at either the concept or the concept and sentiment level.
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The most important benefit of integrating text analytics into modeling is the ability to improve model accuracy through data that is considerably richer in content than structured data alone.
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Conclusion
This paper presents some of the challenges associated with human capital management and some of the analytic techniques that have been effective in solving some specific issues within this space. It is important to recognize that the techniques presented do not demonstrate the only way of solving some of these problems. The application of predictive technologies has the potential of revolutionizing how human capital is managed. By using predictive analytic techniques to examine the wealth of data that is typically available to human resource departments, organizations can find those hidden patterns and relationships within the data and provide a view into the future.
IBM SPSS Data Collection Get an accurate view of opinions and attitudes with a feature-rich suite of survey research software IBM SPSS Statistics Be confident in your results and your decisions, with the rich features available in the most widely used suite of statistical software in the world. IBM SPSS Modeler Discover hidden relationships in both structured and unstructured (text) data and anticipate the outcomes of future interactions with IBM SPSS Modeler Professional for modeling structured data and IBM SPSS Modeler Premium for both structured and unstructured data. IBM SPSS Collaboration and Deployment Services Manage analytical assets, automate processes and share results with the business to drive reliability, consistency and excellence. IBM SPSS Decision Management Place the power of predictive analytics in the hands of business users to automatically deliver high-volume, optimized decisions at the point of impact.
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