Michell Zappa

@envisioningtech mz@envisioningtech.com envisioningtech.com

Over the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they mean for the future of security. Im here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate, and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.

envisioning technology
Ive published a visualization called Envisioning Technology.

AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE

INTERNET

GEOTECH

Cloud computing

Multi touch

Depth imaging

Tablets

Personal gene sequencing

Additive manufacturing Inductive chargers

Cyberwarfare

Gesture recognition

Near-field communication Volumetric (3D) screens Appliance robots Self-healing materials Tidal turbines

4G

Speech recognition

Pervasive video capture

Flexible screens

Organ printing

Fuel cells

Commercial spaceflight

Mesh networking

Boards Augmented reality Biometric sensors Smart toys

Graphene

The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies. I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, from bits to atomss, to speak.

Bio-enhanced fuels

2012
2030

Interplanetary internet

Reprogrammable chips

Domestic robots

Optogenetics

2020
Remote presence

Skin-embedded screens Immersive virtual reality

Swarm robotics

Retinal screens

2030
Exocortex

Neuroinformatics Embodied avatars

2040
2040

Machineaugmented cognition Machine augmented cognition

Utility fog

The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

INTERNET

INTERFACES

SENSORS

UBICOMP

ROBOTICS

High-frequency trading

Cloud computing

Multi touch

Depth imaging

Tablets

Software agents

Cyberwarfare

Gesture recognition

Near-field communication Volumetric (3D) screens Appliance robots

4G

Speech recognition

Pervasive video capture

Flexible screens

Natural language interpretation

Mesh networking

Boards Augmented reality Biometric sensors Smart toys

Robotic surgery

Synthetic blood

Personal fabricators Self-driving vehicles Smart drugs Sub-orbital spaceflight

Multi-segmented smart grids

Metamaterials Powered exoskeleton Photvoltaic glass

Space tourism

Personalized medicine Optical invisibility cloaks In-vitro meat Unmanned aerial Piezoelectricity Weather engineering

Optogenetics Gene therapy

Skin-embedded screens Immersive virtual reality

Swarm robotics

Mole asse

Hybrid assisted limbs

e Retinal screens

Nan Artificial retinas Neuroinformatics

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

INTERNET

INTERFACES

SENSORS

UBICOMP

ROBOTICS

BIOTECH

MATERIALS

ENERGY

SPACE

GEOTECH

QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS

2012 2013 2014 2015

High-frequency trading

Cloud computing

Multi touch

Depth imaging

Tablets

Personal gene sequencing

Additive manufacturing Inductive chargers

2012 2013 2014

Global online population: 2 billion Connected devices: 10 billion

Software agents

Cyberwarfare

Gesture recognition

Near-field communication Volumetric (3D) screens Appliance robots Self-healing materials Tidal turbines

4G

Speech recognition

Pervasive video capture

2015
Commercial spaceflight

Global online population: 2.5 billion Connected devices: 15 billion

Sources: Intel http://intel.ly/pWbH04 InternetWorldStats http://bit.ly/AKbO5

Flexible screens

Organ printing

Fuel cells

2016
Natural language interpretation Mesh networking Boards Augmented reality Biometric sensors Smart toys Bio-enhanced fuels Graphene

2016

2017
Virtual currencies

2017
Synthetic blood

4K

2018

Smart power meters

Robotic surgery

Personal fabricators Machine translation Haptics Biomarkers Picoprojectors Self-driving vehicles Smart drugs Sub-orbital spaceflight

Multi-segmented smart grids

2019
5G Procedural storytelling Machine vision Eyewear-embedded screens Powered exoskeleton Metamaterials Photvoltaic glass Space tourism

2019
Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion $150 Hard disk: 200 Tb Standard RAM: 750Gb
Sources: Intel http://intel.ly/pWbH04 Ericsson http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy http://bit.ly/pofHp5 FutureTimeline http://bit.ly/qz4ben

2020
Holography Context-aware computing Reputation economy Unmanned aerial vehicles Fabric-embedded screens VR-only lifeforms Telepresence Synthetic biology Carbon nanotubes Personalized medicine Optical invisibility cloaks In-vitro meat Piezoelectricity Weather engineering

2020

Computational photography

Petabyte storage standard

Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc

$ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain ( 1015 calculations per second) Stem-cell treatments Vertical farming
Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc

Interplanetary internet

Reprogrammable chips

Domestic robots

Biomaterials

Biomechanical harvesting

World population 8 billion

Source: U.N. http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

BRICs GDP overtakes the G7

Source: Goldman Sachs http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj

Optogenetics Gene therapy

Nanogenerators

Seasteading

2030
Skin-embedded screens Immersive virtual reality Swarm robotics Molecular assembler

Artificial photosynthesis

2030
Terabit internet speed standard
Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

Desalination Hybrid assisted limbs Remote presence Retinal screens Nanowires Artificial retinas Neuroinformatics Embodied avatars Nanomedicine Exocortex Programmable matter Machineaugmented cognition Machine augmented cognition Space elevator Thorium reactor Mars mission Carbon sequestration Exabyte storage standard
Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

Enernet

Lunar outpost

Climate engineering

Antiaging drugs

Traveling wave reactor

Utility fog Space-based solar power Solar sail Arcologies World population reaches 9 billion
Source: U.N. http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

2040

2040

You can see it as an interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

INTERNET

INTERFACES

SENSORS

UBICOMP

ROBOTICS

BIOTECH

MATERIALS

ENERGY

SPACE

GEOTECH

QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS

2012 2013 2014 2015

High-frequency trading

Cloud computing

Multi touch

Depth imaging

Tablets

Personal gene sequencing

Additive manufacturing Inductive chargers

2012 2013 2014

Global online population: 2 billion Connected devices: 10 billion

Software agents

Cyberwarfare

Gesture recognition

Near-field communication Volumetric (3D) screens Appliance robots Self-healing materials Tidal turbines

4G

Speech recognition

Pervasive video capture

2015
Commercial spaceflight

Global online population: 2.5 billion Connected devices: 15 billion

Sources: Intel http://intel.ly/pWbH04 InternetWorldStats http://bit.ly/AKbO5

Flexible screens

Organ printing

Fuel cells

2016
Natural language interpretation Mesh networking Boards Augmented reality Biometric sensors Smart toys Bio-enhanced fuels Graphene

2016

2017
Virtual currencies

2017
Synthetic blood

4K

2018

Smart power meters

Robotic surgery

Personal fabricators Machine translation Haptics Biomarkers Picoprojectors Self-driving vehicles Smart drugs Sub-orbital spaceflight

Multi-segmented smart grids

2019
5G Procedural storytelling Machine vision Eyewear-embedded screens Powered exoskeleton Metamaterials Photvoltaic glass Space tourism

2019
Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion $150 Hard disk: 200 Tb Standard RAM: 750Gb
Sources: Intel http://intel.ly/pWbH04 Ericsson http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy http://bit.ly/pofHp5 FutureTimeline http://bit.ly/qz4ben

2020
Holography Context-aware computing Reputation economy Unmanned aerial vehicles Fabric-embedded screens VR-only lifeforms Telepresence Synthetic biology Carbon nanotubes Personalized medicine Optical invisibility cloaks In-vitro meat Piezoelectricity Weather engineering

2020

Computational photography

Petabyte storage standard

Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc

$ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain ( 1015 calculations per second) Stem-cell treatments Vertical farming
Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc

Interplanetary internet

Reprogrammable chips

Domestic robots

Biomaterials

Biomechanical harvesting

World population 8 billion

Source: U.N. http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

BRICs GDP overtakes the G7

Source: Goldman Sachs http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj

Optogenetics Gene therapy

Nanogenerators

Seasteading

2030
Skin-embedded screens Immersive virtual reality Swarm robotics Molecular assembler

Artificial photosynthesis

2030
Terabit internet speed standard
Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

Desalination Hybrid assisted limbs Remote presence Retinal screens Nanowires Artificial retinas Neuroinformatics Embodied avatars Nanomedicine Exocortex Programmable matter Machineaugmented cognition Machine augmented cognition Space elevator Thorium reactor Mars mission Carbon sequestration Exabyte storage standard
Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb

Enernet

Lunar outpost

Climate engineering

Antiaging drugs

Traveling wave reactor

Utility fog Space-based solar power Solar sail Arcologies World population reaches 9 billion
Source: U.N. http://bit.ly/7nqQkS

2040

2040

But I think its true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinking about the critical paths between them.

GPS

GPS

GPS

GPS

One way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or service and esh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented. What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internet users and fast internet access.

GPS

GPS

Same thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines, optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.

Scenario #1: Surveillance

Today Ill go over three brief sci- scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.

A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvania http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4

The rise in drone journalism.

Moscow protests http:/ /dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos

http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs

The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.

http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8A This is how the Kinect sees the world.

Drone cameras Swarm robotics Computer vision

So where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?

Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized ying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.

IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON
Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilities and risks are endless.

IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON

IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON
And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.

Scenario #2: Urban intelligence

Outboard brain: http:/ /www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompson We are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions, etc.

And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices. Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which ashes if its going to rain. No need to look up the weather.

Were moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected. Sometimes called the smart city.

The surge of personal agents.

Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.

Smart infrastructure Personal agents Contextual computing

DONT TELL ME WHAT TO DO

I call this trend tell me what to do. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day. Tell you which road to take based on trafc patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc. http:/ /www.ickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

DONT TELL ME WHAT TO DO

http:/ /www.ickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Scenario #3: Self-organization

Mobile phonesgenerally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. Its a distributed but centralized network.

We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each node becomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.

In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to provide cell-tower-class performance without the infrastructure.
And DARPA is already working on this technology. http:/ /www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx

Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.

But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, were quickly reaching the point where thats no longer necessary.

Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efciency rises yearly.

http:/ /www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/

$799

.99

And nally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.

$
But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.

Mesh networking Photovoltaics Affordable smartphones

AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS
The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and is impossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by the government.

AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS
Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middle east in 2011.

AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS
Without naming names, Im sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.

IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON DONT TELL ME WHAT TO DO AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS

Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.

The other characteristic about technology is how its always progressing. A century ago, humanity had never even taken ight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)

Same with medical imaging. (1895)

Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.

Thank you.
@envisioningtech mz@envisioningtech.com envisioningtech.com