Full Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 7, No.

2, July 2012

Short Term Daily Water Demand Forecast Model for A Few Service Reserviours of A Metro City using Artificial Neural Network
1&2

Niranjan Sane1, Manisha Mhetre2, Shishir Gupta3 , Raghavendra Hebbar4

Department of Instrumentation and control, Vishwakarma Institute of Technology, Pune, India 3 DGM, Technology center, Control & Automation, Larsen & Toubro, Navi Mumbai, India 4 DGM, Project Engineering, Control & Automation, Larsen & Toubro, Navi Mumbai, India Email id-Niranjan2588@gmail.com (ANN) has been proposed for forecasting water demand. Forecasting the water demand is very important as it gives us guidance to construction of water supply engineering, urban planning and optimization of water supply system. In general water demand forecasting is divided into three categories: long term period, Median-term period and Short-term period. Long term refers to water forecasting for future years, median term refers for forecasting seasonal water consumption in a year and short term refers to daily and hourly water demand. To manage water supply system, short term demand is very important as it is used to determine pump scheduling, reservoirs and treatment plan input/output, etc. In the current study ANN technique have been proposed for forecasting short term water demand for a few reservoirs i.e. Malabar hills (Res1), Bhandar (Res2) and Fosbery (Res3) of Case city. Water consumption data of Case city were obtained from Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and Meteorology data was obtained from the India meteorological Department (IMD). II. REVIEW OF WATER DISTRIBUTION IN CASE CITY
TABLE I. SOURCES OF WATER AND QUANTITY

AbstractWater is basic need of every human being. Forecasting water demand is one of the main problems of designers of water delivery systems. Water supply to a city depends on various climatic variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall due to unpredictability of these variables water demand forecasting becomes an integral part urban water supply management for maintaining proper supply throughout the year. This paper reviews water distribution and short term water demand forecasting for a Metropolitan Case city. There are different techniques for forecasting such as Time series, Regression, Fuzzy, etc due to inadequacy of results of above techniques a relatively new technique using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for forecasting a short term water demand for a few service reservoirs of case city is presented in the paper. Data employed in the study consists of daily average humidity, daily average temperature and daily demand of city. In the study three ANN models where constructed having different combination of variables in it and where tested for three service reservoirs of the case city. Results obtained are encouraging all ANN models preformed well and average error in forecasting of less than 7% was obtained for all ANN models. Keywords - Artificial neural network, Forecasting, Water demand

I. INTRODUCTION Water is used for many purposes such as drinking, irrigation and industrial consumption. Water demand is a complex variable and is affected by various factors such as climatic conditions, population, city size, social and economic condition of people, cost of supply, etc. Various sources of water are Lakes, Rivers, Dams, Tube wells, etc. All these sources depend on rainfall and rainfall occurrence is unpredictable. Demand of water depends on climatic variables such as temperature and humidity. Water Demand increases in summer season with increase in temperature and reduces in winter season with decrease in temperature. So, it becomes necessary to manage water resources to avoid unnecessary shortage of water before next rainfall occurs. Different techniques used for prediction of water demand are Time series models, Regression models, Fuzzy models ,etc., Researchers have already worked with this techniques but the performance of this techniques are not satisfactory so a relatively new technique using Artificial Neural Network 2012 ACEEE DOI: 01.IJRTET.7.2.539 68

Case city is one of metro city of India and capital of Maharashtra state having current population of 20 million. Water distribution in city is operated by government organization. Water supply system of city is unique and complex and it is one of the largest water supply schemes in Asia and 7th largest in the world. BMC supplies about 3400 Million liters of water per day (MLD) to the city trough its 3000km long pipeline network. Water supply for City is obtained from six lakes mainly Vehar, Tulsi, Tansa, Lower Vaitarna, Upper Vaitarna (refer table 1) with

Full Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 7, No. 2, July 2012 main sources Tansa and Vaitarna supplying 80% of water to city. The water obtained from these sources is treated at Water treatement plant (WTP) located at Panjrapur, Bhandup, Tulsi and Tansa with major capacity water treatment plants Bhandup and Panjrapur. Out of 3400MLD water supplied to the city 1900MLD of water is treated at Bhandup WTP and 910 MLD is treated at Panjrapur WTP. algorithm which is one of supervised type of training method.

Figure2. Structure of ANN

IV. EXPERIMENTATION A. Data Analysis Before preceding for model development all the available data in terms of water demand, Temperature, Humidity and rainfall of case city were analyzed. It was found that Water demand of previous day and average humidity of present day were more significant variable affecting daily water demand. B. Experimential Study ANN was used for modeling water demand for three reservoir of case city. Three different ANN models were developed for three reservoirs having combination of different variables representing neurons in input layer the output layer consisted of one neuron representing daily water demand to be forecasted. Numbers of neurons in hidden layer were changed for each ANN model to reduce error in training. Back propagation algorithm was used to train all models. The whole dataset was divided into two parts training and testing set. Seven years of data was used for training the model and one year of data was used for testing the performance of model. The three ANN models having different variables as inputs are discussed below. B.1. First ANN Model (ANN-1). The first ANN model consisted of two Neurons in the input layer representing daily average temperature and water demand of previous day. B.2. Second ANN Model (ANN-2). The second ANN model consisted of two Neurons in the input layer representing daily average humidity and water demand of previous day. B.3. Third ANN Model (ANN-3). The third ANN model consisted of three Neurons in the input layer representing daily average temperature, daily average humidity and water demand of previous day. C. Model performance The ANN models developed for prediction of daily water demand were evaluated using one of statistical measure i.e., average absolute relative error (AARE) AARE = (1/N) * ABS (REt) REt = {(DOt- DFt) /{ DOt }}*100 Where REt is relative error in forecasting daily water demand

Figure1. Layout of water distribution

The water after treatment is stored in two main master balancing reservoirs MBR-I and MBR-II from these two master balancing reservoirs water is distributed to 27 service reservoirs located at various parts of the city at different timings. Water from these service reservoirs is again distributed to 110 Zonal distribution wards (see figure 1). III. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANN) Artificial neural network is an information processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. ANN attempts to imitate the way a human brain works. ANN is an information processing system in this information processing system the elements called as neurons process the information. The signals are transmitted by connection links. The links possess an associated weight which is multiplied along with the incoming signal. The output signal is obtained by applying activation to the net input. A typical ANN employed in engineering applications consists of three layers, namely input layer, hidden layer and output layer (see figure 2).a three ANN network is also called as multiple layer perceptron (MLP). An MLP basically works on feed forward mechanism input data is presented to input layer, which is processed in forward direction through hidden layers and the output from ANN is computed at the output layer. The output is compared with actual output and error is computed. The errors are back propagated through the ANN and connection strengths are updated using back propagation rule or generalized delta rule. The back propagation of error is repeated until error is reduced. The process of reducing the error is known as training of the network and the type of training is known as back propagation 2012 ACEEE DOI: 01.IJRTET.7.2.539 69

Full Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 7, No. 2, July 2012 DOt and DFt are actual and forecasted daily water demand during a day t. D. Results All three ANN models were tested on all three service reservoirs, i.e, Malabar hills (Res1), Bhandar (Res2) and Fosbery (Res3) and results obtained are discussed below. For res1 ANN-3 performed well giving an AARE of 3.38(ref table II). Actual and forecasted daily water demand for testing period for res1 are shown in figure 3,red color indicates forecasted water demand and blue color indicates actual water demand also error plot for testing period is shown in figure 4.
TABLE II. PERFORMANCE
MEASURE USING

period for res1 are shown in figure 5,red color indicates forecasted water demand and blue color indicates actual water demand also error plot for testing period is shown in figure 6.
TABLE III: PERFORMANCE MEASURE
USING

AARE FOR RES2

AARE FOR RES1

Figure5. Actual and predicted daily water demand for res2 using ANN-2

Figure3. Actual and predicted daily water demand for res1 using ANN-3

Figure6. Testing error plot for res2 using ANN-2

For res3 ANN-1 performed well giving an AARE of 5.68(ref table IV). Actual and forecasted daily water demand for testing period for res1 are shown in figure 7,red color indicates forecasted water demand and blue color indicates actual water demand also error plot for testing period is shown in figure 8.
TABLE IV: PERFORMANCE MEASURE USING AARE FOR RES3

Figure4. Testing error plot for res1 using ANN-3

For res2 ANN-2 performed well giving an AARE of 2.28(ref table3). Actual and forecasted daily water demand for testing 2012 ACEEE DOI: 01.IJRTET.7.2.539 70

Full Paper Int. J. on Recent Trends in Engineering and Technology, Vol. 7, No. 2, July 2012 E. Conclusion In this study neural network model has been used for forecasting daily water demand of a few reservoirs of Case city. It was found that all the ANN models preformed good giving significant less error, so the water demand can be better correlated with temperature, humidity and past demand. ACKNOWLEDGMENT We would like to thank all BMC and IMD officials for taking their time to make the data available also special thanks to Rahul Rane, Larsen and Toubro limited, for guidance. REFERENCES
[1] Dr.Ashu Jain,Umesh Chandra Joshi,and Ashish kumar Varshney,Short-term water forecasting using artificial neural networks:IIT kanpur Experience,IEEE, pp. 459462, Aug 2001. [2] Niranjan Sane,Manisha Mhetre,Shishir Gupta,Short term water forecast model for metro cities using artificial neural network:A case study of metropolitant city, International confrence on electronics computer technology,IEEE,pp.7981, 2012 [3] M Tabesh,M Dini,Fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy models for shortterm water demand forecasting in tehran,Iranion journal of science and technology,vol 33,no B1,pp 61-77,2009. [4] Manabu Shimakawa,Shuta Murakami,Fuzzy prediction using an interpolative fuzzy reasoning method,International journal of system science,vol 34,Dec 2003 [5] Ishmael Msiza, Fulufhelo Nelwamondo, Tshilidzi Marwala, Water Demand Prediction using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression,Journal of Computers,Vol 3,No 11,Nov 2008. [6] H R Maier,G C Dandy,Neural network for the prediction and forecasting of water resources variables:A review of modelling and software,pp 101-124,Jan 2000 [7] Guoqiang zhang,B Eddy Patuwo,Michael Y Hu,Forecasting with artificial neural networks:The state of the art,International journal of forecasting,pp 35-65,1998. [8] Inmaculada Pulido Calva,Pilar Montesinos,Jose Roldan,Pranciso Ruiz Navarro,linear regressions and neutral approches to water demand forecasting in irrigation districts with telementry systems,Biosystems engineering,science direct,pp 283-293,May 2007 [9] S.N.Sivanandam,S Sumathi,S.N.Deepa,Introduction of neural networks using matlab 6.0,Tata Mcgraw Hill Publishing,2008. [10] BMC,Daily water consumption record,Mumbai,India,(2003-2010). IMD, Daily weather reports of Mumbai,(2003-2010)

Figure7. Actual and predicted daily water demand for res3 using ANN-1

Figure8. Testing error plot for res3 using ANN-1

From the results presented in table 1,2&3 it is clear that all the ANN models performed well giving an average absolute relative error(AARE) of less than 7%.

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