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Background Brief: Senkaku Scenarios Carlyle A. Thayer September 18, 2012

[client name deleted] What are the likely potential scenarios involving China and Japan over the Senkaku islands? ANSWER: 1. Collision between a China Marine Surveillance (CMS) vessel and a Japanese Coast Guard ship in the territorial waters surrounding the Senkaku islands. China demands an apology and compensation. Japan refuses. Political tensions mount but neither side backs down. 2. China initiates a regular system of CMS patrols in territorial waters surrounding the Senkaku islands that become increasingly provocative. Japan responds by dispatching more Coast Guard ships. CMS vessels demand that the Japanese Coast Guard ships withdraw from Chinese waters. CMS vessels engage in dangerous manoeuvring such as illuminating the bridges of Japanese Coast Guard ships with high intensity lights and navigating close to Japanese Coast Guard ships. A collision occurs raising political tensions. China initiates economic sanctions against Japanese business interests in China. Massive anti-China protests break out in Japan. 3. Chinese civilian nationalists, aided by Chinese authorities, land on one of the Senkaku islands, set up a camp and raise the Chinese flag. They refuse to leave peacefully and resist being taken into custody by Japanese authorities. Pictures of this violent incident are broadcast in China prompting massive anti-Japanese demonstrations. The Chinese government demands the release of the protesters and instigates selected economic sanctions against Japanese business interests in China. Massive anti-China protests break out in Japan. 4. The Peoples Liberation Army Navy steps up deployments through the JapaneseOkinawa island chain. Live firing exercises are conducted in international waters. The manoeuvres are closely monitored by Japans Self-Defence Forces. PLA Air Force planes buzz JSDF ships and aircraft. PLAN surface ships train their guns on JSDF aircraft. During this period of heightened tensions a submerged PLAN submarine strays from an international passageway and intrudes into Japanese waters and is forced to surface by JSDF vessels. China protests Japanese actions and takes further punitive economic measures against Japanese business interests. As tensions rise both sides recall their ambassadors for consultations.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Senkaku Scenarios, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 18, 2012. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived and may be accessed at: http://www.scribd.com/carlthayer.