Significant Volatility in Last 3 Elections

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/03/us/politics/election-results-house-shift.html?ref=teapartymovement 2

Public Trust in Government at Historic Lows

1958-2010
How much of the time do you trust the government in Washington? Just about always /Most of the time

http://people-press.org/trust; Data from Pew Research Center, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN Polls. From 1976-2010 the trend line represents a three-survey moving average. For party analysis, selected datasets obtained from searches of the iPOLL Databank provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.

Views of Federal Government have Dropped to Lowest Point in 15 Years

Only 33% have a Favorable View of the Federal Government April 4-15, 2012

Source: PEW Research Center, April 4-15, 2012

62% of Americans Believe the Country is on the Wrong Track

September 7, 2012

Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-right-direction-wrong-track 5

8.1% National Unemployment

96,000 Jobs Added in August
September 2012

Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com

Consumer Confidence Declined to 60.6

Lowest Level Since November 2011 August 28, 2012

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=25714

Income Gains Over the Last 30 Years have Primarily Gone to Top 1%
September 2011

Source: Center for Budget and Policy Priorities 8

A Lost Decade for Middle Class

August 22, 2012

Source: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/08/22/the-lost-decade-of-the-middle-class/ 9

2012 General Election Obama v. Romney

September 13, 2012

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/ns/politics/t/nbc-politics-election-news-political-issues-events/ 10

Obamas Job Approval Holds at 48%

September 13, 2012

Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/

11

Obamas Job Approval on the Economy Stands at 40%

September 8, 2012

Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/

12

Obamas Favorability Rating Stands at 51%

September 13, 2012

Source: http://elections.Huffingtonpost.com/pollster/

13

Romneys 48% Unfavorable Rating is Higher than His Favorable

September 8, 2012

Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/mitt-romney-favorability 14

Independents on the Rise as Republicans Continue to Drop

September 8, 2012

Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification 15

Obama Won 9 Red States that Kerry Lost

+ 112 Electoral Votes NV, CO, FL, IA, IN, NC, NM, OH and VA (2004 to 2008)
Redistricting Changes Obamas Electoral Votes from 365 to 359
WA MT OR ID WY NV -1996 NE CA UT CO-1992 KS MO KY NM-2000 AZ OK AR MS TX LA
FL1996

Obama 365 McCain 173

ND MN SD IA-2000
IN1964 OH-1996

VT

ME

WI

NY

NH MA CT RI

MI
PA

NJ
DE

IL

WV
VA-1964 NC-1976

MD

DC

TN

SC AL GA

AK

HI

Source: MSNBC; U.S. Federal Election Commission

16

Democrat pickup Voted for Kerry in 04 and Obama in 08 Voted for Bush in 04 and McCain in 08

Presidential Battleground States

NBC News Political Unit
August 23, 2012

Obama: 237 EV

Toss-up: 110 EV

GOP: 191 EV

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/ns/politics/t/nbc-politics-election-news-political-issues-events/ 17

Obamas Paths to 270 Electoral Votes

1. Western Route Kerry 2004 EV 246 California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin Colorado (+9) New Mexico (+5) Nevada (+6) Iowa (+6) 272 Electoral Votes 1. Florida Route Kerry 2004 EV 246 California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin 1. Southern Route Kerry 2004 EV 246 California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin Virginia (+13) N. Carolina (+ 15) 1. Midwest Route Kerry 2004 EV 246 California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin Ohio (+18) Iowa (+6)

Florida (+29)

275 Electoral Votes

274 Electoral Votes 18

270 Electoral Votes

Romneys Paths to 270 Electoral Votes

1. The 3-2-1 Route McCain 2008 Electoral Votes - 180 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming Indiana (+11) North Carolina (+15) Virginia (+13) Ohio (+18) Florida (+29) 1. Industrial Midwest McCain 2008 Electoral Votes 180 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming Indiana (+11) Ohio (+18) Florida (+29) North Carolina (+15) 1 of 4 of the Following Options: Pennsylvania (+20) Michigan (+16) and Iowa (+6) Michigan (+16) and New Hampshire (+4) Wisconsin (+10), Iowa (+6), New Hampshire (+4)

Either New Hampshire (+4), Iowa (+6), Colorado (+9), Nevada (+6) or New Mexico (+5) 270-275 Electoral Votes 273-275 Electoral Votes
19

Battleground States
September 13, 2012
Toss-up States
Wisconsin Nevada Iowa Obama 08 Vote (52.9% Nationally) 56.2% 55.15% 53.9% Obama 08 White 2012 State Polling Vote (44% Nationally) 54% 49% Obama/47% Romney
[CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, 8/21]

Unemployment Rate (July 12) 7.3% 12% 5.3%

45% 51%

47% Obama/45% Romney

[PPP (D), 8/26]

47% Obama/45% Romney

[PPP (D), 8/26]

New Hampshire Colorado Virginia Ohio Florida North Carolina

54.13% 53.6% 52.6% 51.5% 50.9% 49.7%

54% 50% 39% 46% 42% 35%

45% Obama/40% Romney

[WMUR/UNH, 9/10]

5.4% 8.3% 5.9% 7.2% 8.8% 9.6%

49% Obama/44% Romney

[PNA/Keating (D), 9/11]

49% Obama/ 44% Romney

[NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/13]

50% Obama/43% Romney

[NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/13]

49% Obama/ 44% Romney

[NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/13]

44% Obama/45% Romney

[Charlotte Observer, 8/30]

20

U.S. Senate Races Cook Report

September 13, 2012 Democrats 23 Held Seats
Solid D
Feinstein (CA) Carper (DE) Cardin (MD) Klobuchar (MN) Gillibrand (NY) Whitehouse (RI) Cantwell (WA) Sanders (VT) (I)

Likely D
McCaskill (MO) Menendez (NJ) Casey (PA) Manchin (WV)

Lean D
Nelson (FL) Stabenow (MI) Brown (OH) NM (Bingaman)

Toss Up
HI (Akaka) Tester (MT) ND (Conrad) VA (Webb) WI (Kohl) CT (Lieberman (I)

Lean R

Likely R
NE (Nelson)

Solid R

Republicans 10 Held Seats

Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up ME (Snowe) Brown (MA) Heller (NV) IN (Lugar) Lean R AZ (Kyl) Likely R Solid R Wicker (MS) Corker (TN) TX (Hutchison) Hatch (UT) Barrasso (WY)

21

2008 Voter Turnout among Eligible Voters Highest Since 1960

Updated 1/28/2011

% Turnout of Voting Age Population

60% 55% 57%
132,645,504

50% 39%
40% 30%

48%
35%

50% 36% 37%

38%
90,682,968

85,724,135

20%
10% 0% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Presidential Election Years Non-Presidential Election Years 22

Source: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2010G.html; The U.S. Elections Project, www.FEC.gov

Drop in the White Vote Share of Total Voters in Presidential Elections Since 1992

White
100
Percent of the vote

Black

Hispanic

80 60 40 20 0

89

89

87

85

87

83

81

77

74

9 1 1976

10 2 1980

9 2 1984

10 3 1988

8 2 1992

10 5 1996

10 6 2000

11 8 2004

13

9 2008

Source: http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_76.html (for 1976 data); http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html (for 1980-2008 data)

23

Key Election Dates

October

3 11 16 22

Presidential Debate: University of Denver, Denver, Colorado Vice Presidential Debate: Centre College, Danville, KY Presidential Debate: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY Presidential Debate: Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL

November

Election Day

24