Overview of the history of tsunami evaluation at Fukushima Daiichi NPS

Makoto TAKAO Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc. The tsunami caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEGJ) on March 11, 2011, struck the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Kanto regions. This giant earthquake and tsunami triggered heavy losses in the north-eastern region of Honshu Island. It was thought that the ruptured area extended widely from the region off the coast from Iwate to Ibaraki prefectures. Before the GEJE, in Japan, the earthquake and tsunami had been evaluated for the individual regions such as the offing of the Miyagi prefecture, the offing of the south Sanriku along the trench and the offing of Fukushima prefecture. An occurrence of the simultaneous movement of all these regions exceeded previous assumptions. The followings are the history of the tsunami evaluation at Fukushima Daiichi NPS. At the point of construction of Fukushima Daiichi NPS in 1960s, the design tsunami was equivalent to the maximum tidal level ever recorded on the shores of Fukushima Prefecture. Specifically, this would be the tsunami that followed the Chilean earthquake which was approximately 3m high at Onahama Port. This standard was written into the application for the establishment permits that were submitted to the government and subsequently approved. In February 2002, the Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE) published a guideline based on the ongoing technological progress. In this guideline, standard fault models are defined based on the proposed historical tsunami source models. The design tsunami takes uncertainties into consideration by carrying out parametric studies using standard fault models in a deterministic way. The results were assumed to be more conservative. Based on this guideline, TEPCO reevaluated the tsunami height of approximately 6m and has voluntarily implemented measures while reporting them to the government. The JSCE method has been the standard for domestic nuclear power plants up to the time of the accident and is also used for assessing tsunamis at nuclear power plants all around Japan to report to the government including the ones located along the Pacific coastline. The JSCE method is cited in the IAEA Safety Standards Meteorological and Hydrological Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations . Although TEPCO believed that nuclear power plant safeguards had been secured per the standard set down by the JSCE, much consideration was given to applying the latest knowledge and research to the power plant design and operations. In addition, close attention was paid to the latest research trends dealing with earthquakes and tsunamis for the purpose of conducting in-house investigations. The Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) published a statement that "there is a possibility that M8 earthquake could occur anywhere along the trench off the coast from Sanriku to Bousou" in July 2002. TEPCO has studied for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis since 2002. While reviewing the seismic safety evaluation in 2008, TEPCO conducted a trial calculation utilizing the source model of the Meiji Sanriku-oki Earthquake along the trench off Fukushima. However, the validity of this source model had not been discussed. The statement of the HERP assuming that an earthquake might occur anywhere along the trench off of Fukushima was not covered in the Central Disaster Management Councils tsunami evaluation or in the tsunami evaluation for disaster prevention done at each municipality. 36

Moreover, TEPCO reviewed the paper that mentioned the source model of the Jogan tsunami based on the tsunami deposit survey, issued in 2009. However, the source models in the paper were based on the survey results only in Miyagi Prefecture. In the paper, the location and scale of the Jogan earthquake remained unverified, and the tsunami deposit survey in the coastal area of Fukushima Prefecture and other adjacent areas were required for their establishment. Therefore, TEPCO conducted tsunami deposit surveys in Fukushima Prefecture, and as a result, the tsunami deposits which are assumed to be formed by the Jogan tsunami were found north of the Daiichi site. By contrast, no deposit which originated from the Jogan tsunami was found south of the Daiichi site. As there were inconsistencies between the results of the survey and the trial calculation via using the proposed source model, TEPCO considered it necessary to conduct further investigation and research to determine the source of the Jogan tsunami. Japanese electric utilities, including TEPCO, have requested that the JSCE discuss which source model is suitable along the Japan trench off of Fukushima, including whether or not it would be feasible to assume the existence of a wave source in areas where no earthquake had previously occurred, and of the Jogan tsunami model as a standard fault model. Although TEPCO has been ready to take into account the latest knowledge, if established, and has worked on introducing countermeasures based on the latest findings, TEPCO should consider more deeply that there might be huge tsunami which exceeds the design tsunami height. As a consequence, the preparation for tsunami was insufficient.

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