Interview dates: Sept 3-7, 2012

Base: 1,670 registered voters (RV), 1,434 Likely Voters (LV)

662 RV Democrats, 725 RV Republicans,
191 RV Independents, 222 Non-aligned RVs

Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters
CONVENTIONS DAY 12 (9.7.12)
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 3-7, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,670
American registered voters was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility
interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all respondents. For more
information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error
are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited
to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero
but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference at the Presidential Voting
Intention question (Q3 below).

POLITICAL AND ISSUES QUESTIONS

Q1. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong
track?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Right direction 29% 52% 7% 22% 18%
Wrong track 59% 30% 89% 66% 66%
Dont know 12% 18% 4% 12% 16%


Q2. Generally speaking, would you say the following things are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong
track?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
The national economy Right direction 20% 35% 7% 7% 7%
Wrong track 72% 55% 90% 82% 78%
Dont know 8% 9% 3% 11% 15%
Employment and jobs Right direction 25% 42% 8% 24% 10%
Wrong track 68% 50% 89% 70% 74%
Dont know 7% 8% 3% 7% 15%
Healthcare system Right direction 33% 59% 7% 26% 17%
Wrong track 58% 32% 88% 61% 63%
Dont know 9% 9% 5% 12% 19%
Immigration policy Right direction 23% 37% 10% 22% 9%
Wrong track 57% 38% 80% 56% 59%
Dont know 20% 25% 10% 21% 33%
National deficit Right direction 14% 25% 5% 10% 2%
Wrong track 72% 54% 92% 74% 71%
Dont know 14% 21% 3% 16% 27%
Education system Right direction 28% 40% 15% 27% 15%
Wrong track 58% 47% 73% 60% 61%
Dont know 14% 13% 13% 13% 23%
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St., NW, Suite 200
Washington, DC 20036
(202) 463-7300


All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
National politics Right direction 17% 29% 4% 19% 11%
Wrong track 66% 50% 86% 66% 61%
Dont know 17% 21% 10% 15% 28%
American foreign policy Right direction 27% 44% 8% 32% 8%
Wrong track 49% 30% 75% 44% 56%
Dont know 24% 26% 17% 23% 36%
Fuel and gas prices Right direction 7% 12% 2% 4% 1%
Wrong track 85% 77% 95% 87% 80%
Dont know 8% 11% 3% 9% 19%
Your cost of living Right direction 15% 25% 8% 10% 12%
Wrong track 77% 66% 89% 82% 72%
Dont know 8% 9% 4% 8% 16%


Q3. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and
Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and [INSERT CANDIDATE BELOW AND ROTATE LIST] Mitt Romney for president and
Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?


All LIKELY
Voters (LV)
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Barack Obama for president and
Joe Biden for vice president, the
Democrats
46% 45% 82% 7% 38%
Mitt Romney for president and
Paul Ryan for vice president, the
Republicans
44% 42% 8% 88% 35%
Wouldnt vote 1% 3% 1% 1% 5%
None / Other 2% 3% 3% 1% 9%
Dont know / Refused 6% 7% 6% 3% 13%


Q4. In your opinion, which candidate for President has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?

8. Healthcare
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Barack Obama, Democrat 42% 75% 8% 33% 20%
Mitt Romney, Republican 32% 7% 69% 23% 13%
None 13% 9% 15% 20% 30%
Dont know 12% 9% 9% 24% 36%

b. Medicare
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Barack Obama, Democrat 40% 72% 8% 31% 19%
Mitt Romney, Republican 30% 6% 64% 25% 7%
None 13% 10% 13% 18% 28%
Dont know 17% 12% 15% 26% 46%





Q5. When you think about abortion, which of the following is closest to your personal opinion?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Abortion should be illegal in all cases 18% 13% 23% 18% 18%
Abortion should be illegal in most cases 28% 19% 42% 26% 20%
Abortion should be legal in most cases 22% 28% 15% 23% 19%
Abortion should be legal in all cases 22% 31% 12% 21% 22%
Unsure 10% 10% 8% 12% 21%


Q6. As you may know, the US federal budget has a significant deficit. Here are the main expenses for the government. In your
view, which of the following areas can we afford to cut back on? (Select all that apply)

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Social Security 12% 10% 14% 15% 12%
Medicare 10% 7% 16% 12% 4%
Defense & the Military 35% 44% 24% 36% 23%
Education 11% 5% 19% 13% 6%
Alternative energy
development
28% 15% 45% 28% 20%
Law enforcement 10% 8% 10% 17% 8%
Other 28% 24% 33% 25% 22%
None 20% 24% 15% 21% 22%


Q7. Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?

8. President Barack Obama
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Very favorable 29% 55% 4% 17% 7%
Somewhat favorable 17% 25% 7% 18% 11%
Lean towards favorable 8% 11% 3% 14% 24%
Total favorable 54% 90% 15% 49% 42%
Lean towards unfavorable 11% 5% 14% 21% 25%
Somewhat unfavorable 6% 1% 11% 4% 6%
Very unfavorable 29% 3% 60% 27% 27%
Total unfavorable 46% 10% 85% 51% 58%

b. Vice President Joe Biden
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Very favorable 16% 30% 5% 4% 1%
Somewhat favorable 18% 29% 4% 21% 8%
Lean towards favorable 18% 24% 8% 22% 19%
Total favorable 51% 83% 17% 46% 28%
Lean towards unfavorable 16% 9% 20% 25% 34%
Somewhat unfavorable 9% 4% 15% 7% 16%
Very unfavorable 24% 5% 47% 21% 22%
Total unfavorable 49% 17% 83% 54% 72%




c. Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Very favorable 19% 5% 41% 12% 9%
Somewhat favorable 18% 8% 32% 15% 8%
Lean towards favorable 15% 9% 18% 21% 21%
Total favorable 52% 21% 91% 47% 38%
Lean towards unfavorable 15% 22% 5% 23% 23%
Somewhat unfavorable 10% 16% 2% 14% 13%
Very unfavorable 23% 41% 2% 16% 26%
Total unfavorable 48% 79% 9% 53% 62%

d. Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Very favorable 18% 2% 43% 9% 2%
Somewhat favorable 15% 9% 23% 16% 15%
Lean towards favorable 18% 10% 22% 29% 18%
Total favorable 51% 22% 88% 53% 35%
Lean towards unfavorable 18% 24% 8% 22% 29%
Somewhat unfavorable 9% 15% 1% 9% 11%
Very unfavorable 22% 39% 2% 15% 25%
Total unfavorable 49% 78% 12% 47% 65%

CONVENTION QUESTIONS

Q8. In your opinion, which candidate for President is stronger on each of the following?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Eloquent Barack Obama, Democrat 48% 74% 23% 41% 28%
Mitt Romney, Republican 27% 8% 53% 21% 13%
Neither 12% 8% 12% 19% 26%
Dont know 14% 10% 12% 19% 34%
Presidential Barack Obama, Democrat 45% 77% 11% 43% 25%
Mitt Romney, Republican 38% 10% 75% 31% 14%
Neither 8% 6% 7% 10% 31%
Dont know 9% 7% 7% 16% 30%
Understands people like me Barack Obama, Democrat 44% 77% 9% 40% 25%
Mitt Romney, Republican 27% 4% 57% 20% 6%
Neither 19% 12% 23% 25% 38%
Dont know 10% 7% 10% 16% 31%
Is a good person Barack Obama, Democrat 45% 76% 11% 44% 23%
Mitt Romney, Republican 31% 5% 67% 24% 9%
Neither 8% 7% 7% 11% 31%
Dont know 15% 12% 14% 21% 37%
Likeable Barack Obama, Democrat 52% 82% 19% 50% 32%
Mitt Romney, Republican 29% 4% 61% 22% 7%
Neither 10% 8% 11% 14% 31%
Dont know 9% 6% 9% 14% 29%
Tough enough for the job Barack Obama, Democrat 42% 73% 9% 37% 25%
Mitt Romney, Republican 37% 9% 76% 28% 9%
Neither 10% 10% 7% 11% 28%
Dont know 12% 8% 9% 24% 38%

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Represents America Barack Obama, Democrat 44% 76% 10% 38% 19%
Mitt Romney, Republican 37% 8% 77% 31% 12%
Neither 10% 9% 8% 16% 38%
Dont know 9% 7% 5% 15% 31%
Smart enough for the job Barack Obama, Democrat 44% 78% 8% 39% 19%
Mitt Romney, Republican 38% 8% 80% 30% 17%
Neither 8% 7% 4% 12% 29%
Dont know 10% 7% 7% 19% 35%
Has the right values Barack Obama, Democrat 44% 77% 8% 41% 22%
Mitt Romney, Republican 37% 8% 77% 28% 19%
Neither 9% 7% 8% 15% 31%
Dont know 9% 8% 6% 15% 27%
Will protect American jobs Barack Obama, Democrat 40% 72% 5% 34% 13%
Mitt Romney, Republican 37% 8% 75% 31% 13%
Neither 11% 10% 11% 12% 35%
Dont know 13% 10% 9% 23% 39%
A man of faith Barack Obama, Democrat 31% 55% 7% 28% 13%
Mitt Romney, Republican 44% 20% 78% 38% 31%
Neither 9% 9% 6% 11% 20%
Dont know 16% 17% 9% 23% 36%
Would be fun to meet in
person
Barack Obama, Democrat 48% 76% 17% 47% 28%
Mitt Romney, Republican 22% 5% 46% 16% 11%
Neither 16% 11% 19% 21% 31%
Dont know 14% 8% 18% 17% 30%
Can be effective in
Washington
Barack Obama, Democrat 38% 70% 5% 31% 19%
Mitt Romney, Republican 36% 6% 75% 33% 9%
Neither 14% 12% 11% 19% 34%
Dont know 13% 12% 9% 17% 38%

TO BE ACTIVATED AUG 28 ONWARDS (BASE = 1,670)
Q9. The Republican National Convention is currently under way [AUG 31 ONWARDS: CHANGE TO was recently held] in
Tampa, Florida. How much, if anything, have you seen or heard or read about the Republican National Convention?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
A great deal 23% 20% 32% 18% 6%
Some 32% 29% 38% 40% 15%
A little bit 28% 35% 21% 24% 41%
Nothing at all 16% 16% 9% 18% 38%

ASK ALL WHO HAVE HEARD AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT (BASE = 1,421)
Q10. And what is your evaluation of the Republican National Convention so far?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Excellent 13% 3% 25% 12% 2%
Good 26% 13% 41% 29% 13%
Average 36% 38% 32% 42% 58%
Poor 14% 26% 1% 11% 17%
Terrible 11% 21% 1% 6% 10%




TO BE ACTIVATED SEPT 4 ONWARDS (BASE = 1,343)
Q11. The Democratic National Convention is currently under way [SEPT 7 ONWARDS: CHANGE TO was recently held] in
Charlotte, North Carolina. How much, if anything, have you seen or heard or read about the Democratic National Convention?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
A great deal 21% 29% 17% 12% 5%
Some 32% 33% 31% 42% 22%
A little bit 25% 23% 29% 25% 24%
Nothing at all 22% 14% 23% 22% 49%

ASK ALL WHO HAVE HEARD AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT (BASE = 1,052)
Q12. And what is your evaluation of the Democratic National Convention so far?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Excellent 14% 26% 4% 6% 2%
Good 29% 42% 12% 33% 29%
Average 41% 30% 53% 44% 49%
Poor 11% 1% 21% 13% 11%
Terrible 5% 1% 10% 3% 9%

ASK ALL WHO HAVE HEARD AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT ABOUT EITHER CONVENTION. TO BE ACTIVATED AUG 28 ONWARDS
Q13. And where have you seen or heard or read about the Convention?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Non-aligned
RVs
Television 86% 89% 85% 83% 75%
Newspaper 32% 36% 28% 30% 24%
Social media like Facebook
or Twitter
23% 24% 23% 20% 21%
Radio 22% 22% 25% 15% 16%
Blogs 7% 9% 6% 4% 4%
News websites 33% 36% 30% 37% 31%
Conversations with friends,
family, or colleagues
25% 25% 26% 20% 16%
Other 3% 4% 2% 3% 15%



How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter \, i.e.,
Y|~Bin(n,), where n is the sie of our sample. In this seng, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so
that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood
function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian
1
statistics combines both
the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our
opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior
distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions
specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief
about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these
intervals based on n(0). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is
done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The
worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and = n / . Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

+

V
n

..

For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for
complex weighting
2


Analysis Domain Sample size Credibility intervals
Registered voters (RV) 1,670 2.7
RV Democratic 662 4.3
RV Republican 725 4.1
RV Independent 191 8.1
Likely Voters 1,434 3.0




1
Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC |
ISBN: 158488388X | 2003

2
Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.