5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

4 September 2012

Equities
NSE Bounces on Increased Accumulation.
The NSE 20 share index today gained a whooping 40 points to close at 3895.86, setting another high for the year. In fact all
the indices closed at their respective yearly highs with the NASI gaining 0.67 points to breach 85, the FTSE 15 and 25 share
indices touched 113 and 115 points respectively. Local investors conserved their dominance in the market accounting for 65%
of the total turnover with foreign investors largely staying out of the market but maintaining net long positions on most
counters resulting in a net inflow of Kes.120,000. It was anticipated that investors would refrain from participating in the
market today as the Equity turnover was depressed to Kes.146Mn. This Bond market was largely flat at Kes.4.2Bn.
Market Capitalisation marginally improved to Kes.1.13Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Safaricom Ltd

12,046,,100

Index

Previous

Today

% change

NASI

84.95

85.62

0.79%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

2,417,300

NSE 20 Share

3855.14

3895.86

1.06%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

1,127,800

FTSE NSE 15

112.44

113.25

0.72%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

627,000

FTSE NSE 25

114.90

115.63

0.64%

Equity Bank Ltd

391,400

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

3.85

5.48

175.00

4.17

CFC Insurance Group

7.45

3.47

Equity Bank Ltd

23.50

3.30

CFC Stanbic Ltd

49.50

3.13

Express Kenya Ltd

Bamburi Ltd

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Kenya Re Ins Ltd

10.80

-4.00

Total Kenya Ltd

15.50

-2.52

Standard Group Ltd

21.50

-2.27

Scan Group Ltd

57.00

-1.72

Barclays Bank (K) Ltd

14.40

-1.71

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 21/12 with 21 stocks advancing in price and 12
shedding prices.
Foreign investor participation declined to 34.77% in todays
trading compared to 36.75% at the closed yesterdays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.120.730.00
compared to a net inflow of Kes.84.6Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on
Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) Kes.31.9Mn and Equity Bank Ltd
(NSE: EQTY) Kes.6Mn. The 2 counters accounted for 25.67%
and 73.82% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the highest net inflow
of Kes.1.88Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Kenya Commercial
Ltd (NSE: KCB) at Kes.5.1Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

3rd Sept 2012

4th Sept 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1121.29

1130.02

0.78%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

482.76

146.74

-69.60%

63.25/36.75

65.23/34.77

N/A

19:17

21:12

N/A

4300.85

4182.85

-2.74%

300.00

N/A

7.17%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

300.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
6.98%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

rd

3 September 2012
Buys (Kes)
131,283,857.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

4th September 2012

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

46,706,825.00

Sales (Kes)

25,810,680.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

84,577,032.50

25,689,950.00
120,730.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Banking sector closed top moving 0.81% up buoyed by the performance of Equity Bank Ltd (NSE:
EQTY) which gained 3.30% to close at a VWAP Kes.23.50. The index performance was up 0.27% with only
three segments posting a decrease in performance.
The Energy & Petroleum segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.10% dragged down by Total Kenya
Ltd (NSE: TOTL) which shed 2.52% to close at a VWAP of Kes.15.50.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Banking

10

0.81

Construction & Allied

0.73

Commercial & Services

0.72

Automobiles & Accessories

0.67

Manufacturing & Allied

0.19

Insurance

0.16

Telecommunication & Technology

0.10

Agriculture

-0.05

Investments

-0.10

Energy & Petroleum

-0.57

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

0.27

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
Price at
Target Price
Recommendation

Company

Current
Price

Upside
Potential

Return to
Date

Recommendation

Centum Investments Ltd

14.55

19.55

12.25

37.34%

-15.81%

HOLD

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

23.50

-18.09%

48.73%

KenolKobil Limited

9.80

16.90

14.85

12.13%

51.53%

NIC Bank Limited

26.50

45.50

33.75

25.82%

27.36%

EA Cables Ltd

11.80

14.55

10.05

30.93%

-14.83%

Athi River Mining Ltd

156.00

198.50

205.00

-3.27%

31.41%

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd

88.50

123.40

100.00

18.96%

12.99%

KCB Group Ltd

18.50

27.10

26.00

4.06%

40.54%

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd

7.20

17.25

16.00

7.25%

122.22%

HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Kenya Power & Lighting Co.

Nation Media Group Ltd

15.85

22.00

16.50

25.00%

4.10%

153.00

197.70

203.00

-2.68%

32.68%

British American Investments

4.00

6.25

5.70

8.80%

42.50%

Cooperative Bank Limited

11.55

18.50

11.70

36.76%

1.30%

Kenya Reinsurance Corp.

10.05

15.35

10.80

29.64%

7.46%

Scangroup Ltd

49.25

59.60

57.00

4.36%

15.74%

Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

27.20%

Fixed Income:
15-yr Treasury Bond up for sale
Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.5.5Bn in excess liquidity
through repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate closed lower at 7.204%.
Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill will be auctioned on Wednesday, 5th September 2012. While the
91-day T-bill will be auctioned the following day. The regulator seeks to raise 4Bn from each auction.
Yields are expected to continue decreasing ahead of the expected rate cut. The CBK seeks to raise up
to Kes.15Bn through a 15-yr Treasury bond that will be on sale from September 4th September 19th
with the auction being done on 19th September. The bond will have a fixed coupon rate of 11% pa.
Secondary Markets: In the Fixed income market, bond activity slightly declined 2.74% to Kes.4.18Bn.
The 5-yr Treasury bonds accounted for 42% of the activity with the FXD1/2012/5YR being the most
traded.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

8.12%

13.10%

13.06%

0.11%

0.43%

182 Day

9.85%

18.06%

13.53%

0.13%

0.72%

1 Year

10.34%

17.00%

13.54%

0.19%

1.04%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.26%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.74%

0.71%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.16%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES Slightly Shaken
Performance: The KES today weakened against all currencies. The largest loses were 1.153%
in the ZAR/KES pair and 0.73% against both the EUR & TZS. The KES weakened to a twomonth low as importers and commercial banks preferred to hold long positions ahead of the
expected huge rate cut. The local currency is however expected to hold stable, in the long
run, due to the high FOREX reserves despite the expected decline in tourist numbers.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

3rd Sept 2012

84.20

4th Sept 2012

84.58

GBP/KES

133.83

134.33

EUR/KES

105.61

106.38

ZAR/KES

9.99

10.11

KES/UGX

29.75

29.58

KES/TZS

18.72

18.58

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.51
th

27 Jan 2012

1.52
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the Stochastic Oscillator for the
USDKES currency pair over the past 3 days. The effect on the anticipated MPC decision can
Estimatesclearly be seen in the chart below but the regulator has managed to keep a cap on any
further weakness; a situation that will be replicated tomorrow.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index was up 1.04% as Market Capitalisation

ascended to Kes.922.7Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Bamburi Cement Ltd (NSE: BAMB) up 4.17%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was
Barclays Bank (K) Ltd (NSE: BBK) shedding 1.71%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed lost 0.39% over yesterdays close as

Market Capitalisation reduced to Kes.135.5Bn.
This sections best performer was
Supermarket Ltd (NSE: UCHM) up 2.24%.

Uchumi

Losing by the biggest margin was Kenya Re Ins. Co.

Ltd (NSE: KENRE) down 4.00 %.
Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance was up 0.50% with market

capitalization also increasing to Kes.21.5Bn.
Express Kenya Ltd (NSE: XPRS) gained 5.48% to lead
the section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin, was Eaagads Ltd (NSE:
EGDS) shedding 0.93%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

158,000,000,000

12,046,100

1.28%

0.32

0.22

12.34

5.57%

790,774,356

178,715,004,456

1,600

0.44%

13.46

8.75

16.79

3.87%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

87,015,259,970

391,400

3.30%

2.79

1.00

8.42

4.26%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

78,214,118,400

235,400

-1.71%

1.49

1.50

9.66

10.42%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

63,517,873,125

50,800

4.17%

14.44

10.00

12.12

5.71%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

59,712,043,664

61,800

0.48%

19.75

11.00

10.53

5.29%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

40,860,727,830

327,900

0.86%

1.53

0.40

7.65

3.42%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

76,706,755,268

617,000

0.00%

3.72

1.85

6.99

7.12%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,246,400,085

59,900

0.00%

0.94

0.50

8.83

6.02%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

41,400,000,000

11,100

0.49%

30.98

30.50

13.36

7.37%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

31,895,070,116

12,300

0.50%

12.70

8.00

15.98

3.94%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

13,547,368,445

500

3.13%

5.99

0.00

8.26

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,139,485,924

252,000

2.31%

3.58

0.25

3.72

1.88%

1,530,000,000

9,562,500,000

2,417,300

0.81%

1.26

0.50

4.96

8.00%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

2,000

0.00%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,444,896,000

141,100

1.23%

2.16

0.45

7.64

2.73%

99,055,000

20,306,275,000

2,800

0.00%

11.63

2.00

17.63

0.98%

358,997,784

12,116,175,210

69,300

1.50%

6.72

0.50

5.02

1.48%

922,703,664,292

16,700,300

1.04%

8.17

4.40

9.85

4.43%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,410,601,583

122,500

-0.41%

1.79

0.00

6.84

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

21,855,653,820

114,700

-1.00%

2.21

1.00

6.72

6.73%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,232,980,296

7,700

-1.72%

2.55

0.70

22.35

1.23%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,278,000,000

617,000

-0.79%

3.19

0.40

5.91

2.12%

90,000,000

5,040,000,000

0.00%

6.24

0.50

8.97

0.89%

148,210,640

5,780,214,960

1,400

0.00%

4.51

1.30

8.65

3.33%

54,450,000

9,147,600,000

1,100

0.60%

33.00

4.50

5.09

2.68%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,480,000,000

83,500

-4.00%

3.19

0.35

3.39

3.24%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,524,462,500

16,300

1.36%

2.70

1.20

5.54

8.03%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,712,944,943

8,000

-2.52%

3.05

0.00

5.08

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

900

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,768,000,000

0.00%

2.31

1.00

16.99

2.55%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,543,906,250

3,700

-0.50%

1.15

1.00

8.74

9.95%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

957,187,762

11,900

-1.08%

0.53

0.00

8.68

0.00%

74,059,026

1,592,269,059

1,300

-2.27%

2.96

0.00

7.26

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,255,000,000

65,100

0.88%

-1.09

0.15

-5.23

2.63%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,246,794,176

122,100

2.24%

1.47

0.00

10.88

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,369,344,103

0.00%

1.23

0.25

18.90

1.08%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,838,764,212

500

3.47%

1.84

0.00

4.05

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,599,832,700

13,800

-1.30%

1.72

1.00

6.63

8.77%

19,525,446

1,972,070,046

0.00%

7.71

6.80

13.10

6.73%

135,549,835,649

1,191,500

-0.39%

4.13

1.14

6.30

2.92%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,071,618,213

8,700

2.67%

0.35

0.20

11.00

5.19%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,970,172,000

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.40

25.56%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

500

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

990,000,000

2,000

1.85%

7.79

1.10

2.12

6.67%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

556,990,400

0.00%

7.78

0.55

3.21

2.20%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

976,644,462

11,900

0.00%

3.57

0.75

3.61

5.81%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

854,172,000

2,700

0.00%

5.44

1.25

6.62

3.47%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

2,300

0.00%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

852,160,500

1,400

-0.93%

1.36

1.25

38.97

2.36%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

122,500

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,003,275,000
508,560,000
8,173,557,900

0
700
1,127,800

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.36
6.52
13.89

8.75%
5.77%
2.40%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

136,304,592

1,100

5.48%

-6.47

-0.60

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

142,000,000

3,700

0.00%

0.38

0.10

9.34

2.82%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
21,506,487,695

0
1,285,300

0.00%
0.50%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.26

0.00%
4.39%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334