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Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies Date: August 24, 2012

Heinrich Lead Growing in Race for N.M. Senate

In the race to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman, Democrat Martin Heinrich has expanded his lead and is starting to pull away from Republican Heather Wilson. Our latest poll shows Heinrich leading Wilson by 8 points. The fundamentals of the race are not good for Wilson and are getting worse as the campaign progresses. Despite significant advertising from her campaign and outside groups, her personal standing is slipping and Heinrich is consolidating his support. As the following table illustrates, Heinrich has led in every poll conducted by any pollster this year, but a lead that was 4-5 points is now 8-9 points. Date August 21 August 14-19 Heinrich-Wilson 48-41 (+7) 51-44 (+8)* Sample size/methodology 500 LVs/IVR 700 LVs/live dialers on landline and cell 502 LVs/live dialers on landline and cell 724 RVs/IVR 1295 LVs/IVR 503 LVs/Live dialers on landline and cell 526 RVs/IVR 500 LVs/IVR 500 LVs/IVR 400 RVs/Live dialers Pollster/Sponsor Rasmussen GBA Strategies/Martin Heinrich for Senate FM3/LCV PPP We Ask America FM3/LCV PPP Rasmussen Rasmussen POS/FM3/Colorado College

August 5-7 July 13-16 July 9-10 June 28-July 1 April 19-22 April 3 February 14 January 2-7

50-41 (+9) 48-43 (+5) 51-42 (+9) 49-45 (+4) 48-43 (+5) 46-42 (+4) 45-43 (+2) 45-44 (+1)

*Due to rounding, the Heinrich lead is +8

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NM Senate Race: Polling Update

Heinrich is pulling away due to a number of factors: Democrats start with a natural advantage in New Mexico. Heinrich is certainly benefitting from a stronger message and better standing in this race, but there is no denying that the electorate favors Democratic candidates. Our most recent survey shows that New Mexico voters favor a Democrat over a Republican in a generic congressional ballot by a significant 8 points (50 42 percent). In addition, no state in America has as high a share of Hispanic voters as New Mexico. Heinrich is currently winning this bloc by a 64 31 percent margin. A Republican candidate needs to do significantly better among Hispanics to win New Mexico. The barrage of misleading attack ads from Wilson, Karl Rove and the corporate special interests are not working. For the last few weeks, Heather Wilson, the Chamber of Commerce, Crossroads and other shady SuperPACs with names like American Future Fund and American Commitment have spent millions of dollars launching misleading attacks on Martin Heinrich. However, in the face of these attacks, Martin has continued to communicate a positive message in his TV ads and it has worked. When asked whether the information they have seen or heard about Martin has made them more or less favorable towards Heinrich, 28 percent say more favorable compared to just 21 percent less favorable. He maintains a net favorable rating despite the attack ads. New Mexicans dont like Heather Wilson very much. Efforts by Heather Wilson and Karl Rove to recast Wilson in a positive light have utterly failed. Wilson has a net -10 favorableunfavorable rating, and 32 percent of voters say that what they have heard about her over the last few weeks makes them less favorable towards her, while just 20 percent say more favorable. Wilson and Rove know that their efforts to re-define her have failed, so they shifted to a scorched earth approach attacking Martin. Heinrich is winning on his terrain and holding his own on Wilsons. On the terrain where we have chosen to wage this debate, we are winning overwhelmingly Martin holds a 16-point advantage on which candidate is for the middle class, a 13-point advantage on which candidate cares about people like you, and a 20-point advantage on which candidate will protect Medicare and Social Security. By 13-points, voters are more likely to believe Wilson puts special interests first and by 12 points, they are more likely to believe Wilson is a typical politician. Moreover, by 6 points, they are more likely to believe Wilson is too extreme, despite her efforts to paint Heinrich as an extreme liberal.

In a desperate attempt to keep her campaign alive, Wilson decided to increase her television buy to 1800 gross ratings points this week, a level she cannot sustain given that the last FEC report showed her with less cash on hand than Heinrich. Wilsons campaign is flailing and this is her last stand. Every strategy they have employed has failed to move her numbers. Playing a weak hand, Wilson is going all-in 11 weeks from the election. 2