Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 23, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104 Technical Team Rajeev Darji Sr. Research Analyst rajeev.darji@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6136

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 23, 2012

Highlights
US Existing Home Sales increased by 4.47 million in last month. Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trade. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.8-mark in August.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jun'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Jun12) - $/oz Comex Silver(May12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 5412.9 17846.9 13172.76 1413.5 15161.2 1935.2 59380.8 9131.7 97.26 1637.40 2954.90 7595.00 473.02 59380.8 Prev. day -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.1 2.8 0.8

as on August 22, 2012 WoW 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.6 3.4 -1.1 2.0 -0.1 3.1 2.1 6.3 2.7 4.2 2.0 MoM 5.9 5.9 3.9 3.7 21.2 9.4 12.9 9.2 9.3 1.8 7.7 1.6 6.5 12.9 YoY 9.4 8.2 17.9 25.8 3.1 8.9 10.4 4.6 13.8 -11.9 -30.1 -14.2 -19.7 10.4

Asian markets are trading on a firm note on the back of upbeat global market sentiments triggered by speculation that US, China and other global central bankers might adopt stimulus measures to boost the economic growth. US Existing Home Sales increased by 4.47 million in July as against a previous rise of 4.37 million a month ago. Chinas Conference Board (CB) Leading Index increased by 0.7 percent in last month. HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.5 points to 47.8-mark in August from previous level of 49.3 in July.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and finally settled with depreciation of 0.5 percent towards the end of the session on the back of rise in the risk appetite amongst market participants and thereby decline in the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index. Backing by most of the US Federal Reserve policy makers in the minutes of the meeting held yesterday for further stimulus measures led to positive market sentiments in the later part of the day yesterday. US equities gained in the later part of the day yesterday on optimism that Federal Reserve policy makers might hint further stimulus measures to achieve sustained growth of the economy. The currency touched an intraday low of 81.47 and closed at 81.50 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.50 55.50 55.52 55.52 Prev. day -0.5 -0.4 -0.10 -0.11

as on August 22, 2012 WoW -1.5 0.0 -0.53 0.33 MoM -2.6 0.9 0.33 0.33 YoY 10.2 -17.8 21.46 21.38

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee swung between gains and losses and managed to appreciate by 0.4 percent on the back of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Additionally, increase in foreign funds also supported upside in the currency. However, sharp positive movement in the currency was capped on the back of decline in domestic equities. The currency touched an intra-day high of 55.31 in yesterdays trading session and closed at 55.50 on Wednesday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 6,227.80 crores till 22 August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs nd 58,493.60 crores till 22 August 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to trade rangebound on the back of positive global markets along with weakness in the US Dollar Index. However, sharp appreciation in the currency might be restricted due to month end dollar demand from the importers and bankers.
nd

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for August 23, 2012 Support 55.36/55.25 Resistance 55.62/55.75

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 23, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro appreciated around 0.4 percent yesterday on speculation that European leaders might progress on positive steps to curtail the Euro zone debt. Additionally weakness in the DX also added to the gains of the currency in yesterdays session. It touched an intra-day high of 1.2538 and closed at 1.2526 on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from the region might also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 68.95/68.8 69.2/69.35 valid for August 23, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2526 69.51 69.05 69.1 Prev. day 0.4 -0.7 0.12 0.12 WoW 1.9 -1.9 0.18 0.15

as on August 22, 2012 MoM 3.0 -2.1 1.99 2.01 YoY -13.2 -5.2 4.74 4.70

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.6 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX. However, further upside in the currency was restricted on the back of mixed global market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.5881 and closed at 1.588 on Wednesday. GBP (% change) Outlook
Last Prev. day 0.6 -0.9 0.09 WoW 1.3 -1.2 0.09 MoM 2.5 -1.5 0.95 YoY -3.7 -17.1 16.20

Source: Telequote

as on August 22, 2012

We expect Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of positive economic data from the country will also support upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 23, 2012 Support 87.45/87.3 Resistance 87.7/87.85

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.588 88.11 87.62

87.62

0.10

0.11

0.93

16.17

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 23, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments. It touched an intra-day high of 79.33 and closed at 78.56 on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Yen to depreciate today on account of positive global markets which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 23, 2012 Support 69.80/69.57 Resistance 70.20/70.35

JPY (% change)
Last 78.56 0.7055 70.01 70.01 Prev day -0.9 -1.1 0.14 0.16

as on August 22, 2012 WoW -0.5 -0.3 -1.39 -1.37 MoM 0.6 1.5 -0.50 -0.47 YoY 2.5 -18.6 17.74 17.66

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 23, 2012

Indicator HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI BBA Mortgage Approvals CBI Realized Sales Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Country China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK UK US US US Time (IST) 8:00am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm Actual 47.8 Forecast 43.8 50.1 43.6 50.2 44.3 47.9 28.2K 16 365K 51.3 362K Previous 49.3 43.4 50.0 43.0 50.3 44.0 47.9 26.3K 11 366K 51.4 350K Impact High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High

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