APEX B U S I N E S S A N D M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U L T A N T S L T D

WHO REALLY ARE THE SYRIAN REBELS?

HECTOR C SIKAZWE, 20l2

Stalemate in Syria Who really are the Syrian Rebels? Hector C Sikazwe. 2012

Keywords
Syria, Iran Russia, UN, Kofi Annan, War, Rebels, Obama, Ahmadinejad, Lebanon, Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Free Syrian Army, Chemical weapons, Biological weapons

Abstract
Syria is at war. The war rages from within. The defragmentation of the Syrian society started many years ago, long before President Assad Bashed knew how to tie his shoe laces. The Assad family, which has ruled Syria since Bashars father, Hafez, took power in the so-called Corrective Revolution of 1970, issues from the Alawite minority, which represents only about 12% of Syrias 22.5 million inhabitants. Members of that formerly disadvantaged Shiite sect have benefited greatly from the Assad regimes hold on power, occupying crucial positions in Syrias army, economy and politics. The resentment from the rest of the other tribes has simmered and is now tipping over. It is time for the oppressed people of Syria to make their views known in the manner of the Arab revolution style. Encouragement has been seen in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and to a great extent in Yemen where a populous uprising has taken the ruling power out of power. But Syria is not Egypt, which was a friend of Israel, and as such hated by its own largely Islamic society, nor did Libya, where infiltration from the Western world through an inept Mohamed Gadhafis greedy family desires allow internal fragmentation. Neither is Syria Tunisia where the prime Minister jumped before he was asked to due to threats on his family political weaknesses. Syria is different. Syria is Russias darling, and a strong Iranian surrogate. Syria is Iranian young brother who has learnt to run before can walk. Syria is deadly and more powerful than the West would have wanted it to be. Syria has chemical weapons. Syria cannot be overrun by a number of small boys throwing stones with a promise that their stones will be replaced with hand-held grenades and shoulder held rocket launchers if they prove that they are organized. Syria is too big to fall for the greater peace of the Middle East. The western world are wondering how to organize these small boys with diapers hanging around their knees on how they can pull their hanging nappies higher and be able to stand against the towering might of the Assad Bashed might. The
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big question that has perplexed the Western world is the chilling realization that what started as a Syrian simmering anger against the brutal Assad regime has become the daring path for the Jihadist Islamic world movement, bringing along the remnants of Osama Bin Laden fallen Al Qaida movement from Iraq, Afghanistan and Taliban Pakistan evil groups. That is something President Obama feared would happen and former republican Ambassador to the UN Bolton has cautioned arming the rebels as the devil you know is better than the devil you know. Ambassador Bolton has shared his wisdom and his words probably ring in Obamas ears every time he sits with his cabinet or war mongers like John McCain who are trigger happy for another un-ending war like the Afghanistan one.

The United Kingdom does not have any such problems. They have openly gone ahead and expressed support for the rebels and though William Haig, who is quick to influence war opinion faster than he understands the global implication nor the economic impact his decisions have on the UK economy that has suddenly dipped into a double deep recession after the horrendous 2003 Tony Blair comedy of the Iraq dossier that resulted in the UN being duped into the infamous Iraq invasion. The UK has never recovered from the shame and needed the Libyan invasion to prove that they could redeem their image. Everything went sour there as well as documents unearthed after the fall of Mohammad Gadhafi revealed the deceptive role that the British government had played just before the Arab revolution. William Haig has failed to explain to the media the case for arming the rebels he cannot identify as being friends of the west. The Jihadists are having a field day whilst David Cameron is laying eggs with the hope that some miraculous solution to the problem in Syria. The British government hopes against hope that the rebels will somehow overthrow the Syrian government and somehow make the midget in Iran, President Ahmadinejad will take his foot off the neck of the rebels. Israel has played a very subdued role as they have watched the rebels, probably infiltrated by the dreaded rebels from Palestine, Hamas and Fatah who
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have been locked in on-again off-again talks about forming a unity government and see this

as opportunity to gain more grounds in their influence in the deplorable fight taking place in Syria and a possible vacuum requiring filling as the regime tumbles. Israel is equally fid gety about the Hezbollah resistance movement in Lebanon that receives military training, weapons, and financial support from Iran, and political support from Syria. Following the end of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in 2000, its military strength has grown significantly and it is no wonder Israel is flexing her muscles to ascertain and affirm her presence in the region before it is overrun by events.

1.0

Introduction

In a nutshell, the conflict in Syria would have been the ideal conclusion to the Arab spring revolution had the various players known what the eventual outcome would have been. There are too many unknowns, especially the question of who the rebels in Syria are. There are accusations from the Syrian regime that these are Western backed thugs, funded by the United States to unseat the government of the Syrian regime as a stepping stone to the never ending Iran/Israel/USA conflict over the Iranian Nuclear arms programme. The Syrian government has now changed the tome of their claim to the fact that the Western world has been duped to believe that the rebels are a democratic movement when in actual fact it is a Jihadist movement that is threatening to have a Taliban-type of government setup as soon as the west has assisted them to overthrow the government. The western World do not have an answer to the simple question of who the Free Syrian army are as there are too many anomalies of what they would describe such a movement, what with all the Islamic fundamentalist acts like suicide bombings, torture, beheadings and Sharia law type of behaviors exhibited by the rebels. The question remains of who these groups are comprised off. Is the world safe with these unknown quantity of rebels taking over a government that has ruled the Syrian people with an Iron hand though instilling stability in the region?

Two weeks after former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan quit as mediator in frustration with the failure of a four-month-old truce, military observers have no peace on the ground to monitor, and UN officials have said the last of the few dozen remaining team members would quit Damascus by August 24 2012. The reason put across by the UN peace team was that Syria's government and rebels have chosen the path of war. The UN peacekeeping chief ended its doomed monitoring mission to Damascus and the deadly deadlock persists among world powers over how to contain the spreading conflict.
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The deputy UN peacekeeping chief Edmond Mulet said, It is clear that both sides have chosen the path of war, open conflict, and the space for political dialogue and cessation of hostilities and mediation is very, very reduced at this poin." It is apparent that the UN is pointing out that the primary responsibility for stopping the violence rests with those on the ground, particularly the Government. Incidentally, the Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi stated that the West, especially the United States, was to blame for the failure of the Syria peace plan worked out by Kofi Annan.1 He emphatically mentioned that the West and some regional countries did not want Annan to succeed at any cost for selfish reasons.

It is ironical that at a time when fighting is raging around Syria's biggest city, Aleppo, and titfor-tat sectarian kidnappings have spread the Syrian conflict into fragile neighboring Lebanon, Western powers and Russia remain resolutely at odds in the Security Council over the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.

2.0

Impact on the World

The conflict in Syria is a test of everything the UN organization stands for and was setup in 1945. The United Nations must not fail that test. It is vital to understand that the people of Syria and the world should have learned the lessons of Srebrenica. Due to the inability of the United Nations to have a united front against what is happening in Syria, the people of Syria feel let down and neglected by the international community. It is obvious that united international pressure can make a difference. The Syrian people need action. Their

aspirations have been denied. Their suffering is profound, and the increasing militarization promises only worse. The rebels, with nocturnal support by the CIA and daylight funding by the British Government on one hand, and the flamboyant support of the Syrian government by the Russian, Iranian and Chinese government on the other hand, Syria looks to become a failed state in the next few years if neither warring side is going to overcome the other soon.
1

http://news.yahoo.com/interfering-states-made-annan-fail-syria-iran-101641310.html

2.1

Failed state threat

A Syrian failed state2 in the Middle East is the worst outcome that Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon and most of all, the United States of America would desire. The fear of another Afghanistan, or post conflict/Saddam Hussein Iraq would soon become the breeding ground for all sorts of Jihadists who thrive on confusion and lack of central administrative control in any Country. Islamic fundamentalists are cherishing the pending vacuum that can easily such in all sorts of undesirables ranging from Iranian backed Hezbollah, Palestinian truant Hamas and Fatah to the unavoidable Iranian infiltration of the Nation. The presence of jihadist fighters in Syria is a bad sign for the future; first for the Syrian regime, second for Israel, and third for Syria's neighbors; Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon, and also Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf kingdoms. By a definition, a Nation is deemed to be a failed State when a state loses control over its borders and crossings. The best examples can be found in Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq, where all three countries were unable to impose any sort of control over their military activities against the United States army or the national troops associated with them. It is without doubt or prevarication that the Syrian state authority has lost control of the main border crossing between Syria and Turkey, the Bab el-Hawa crossing, as well as losing two other crossings on the Syria-Iraq borders, and it is looking likely that it will lose the main crossing with Jordan which has been recently targeted several times by the military opposition funded and supported by the western World. This support directly puts full blame on external interference that has been promoted and exacerbated by the modern communication equipment provided by the sympathetic Countries like the United Kingdom, Arab Emirates and indirectly by the United Sates who are providing logistical and tactical assistance to the rebels.

http://www.abdelbariatwan.com/Syria%20a%20failed%20state.htm

3.0

Facts on the ground

As the world watches, the French news agency reported that an extremist Islamist group is currently controlling the Bab el-Hawa crossing, and that most of this group's fighters are not Syrians, which suggests they are al-Qaeda-associated groups have infiltrated the revolution, much to the chagrin of the western World. Reports from within Syria reports

that it is still unclear whether the Syrian regime has relinquished control over these crossings due to the blows it has received from the military opposition, or whether it is a tactical retreat. It is more likely that the regime was forced to give up these crossings, after it realized that keeping them would cost the army too much human loss, to allow the regime to concentrate on defending the country's main cities; the capital Damascus and the commercial hub Aleppo after the Free Syrian Army (FSA) reached the heart of both cities.

3.1

Jihadists rampant in Syria

It is with no doubt that the Jihadist groups' control over the Syrian crossings with Turkey and Iraq is not good news for those countries and their governments, as both have already suffered from these groups over the past decade. They are well aware that if these groups are currently busy with fighting the "infidel" regime in Syria, as the jihadists say, they will soon take their jihad to the neighboring regimes once they eliminate Syria's Assad. The Jihadists have a long term plan of eliminating all non-fundamentalists regimes in the Middle East and if the vision is as being touted throughout the region, with support of the Western World, then the war in the Middle East has just began and peace for Israel as far as the other planets are from the Earth. Alarmingly, most of the arms shipped at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Qatar to supply the Syrian rebel groups fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad are going to hard-line Islamic jihadists, and not the more secular opposition groups that the West wants to bolster, according to American officials and Middle Eastern diplomats. According to
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reliable reports presented to congress, the United States does not send arms directly to the Syrian opposition. The US government provides intelligence and other support for shipments of secondhand light weapons like rifles and grenades into Syria, mainly orchestrated from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Unfortunately, reports indicate that the shipments organized from Qatar, in particular, are largely going to hard-line Islamists who are not particularly the intended recipients of the weaponry shipments. This assessment of the arms came at a crucial time for the President just in the closing weeks of the election campaign. Some US officials
have expressed concern on why hard-line Islamists have inadvertently received most of the larger share of the arms shipped to the Syrian opposition through the shadowy pipeline with roots in Qatar, and, to a lesser degree, Saudi Arabia. Frustration from the USA government can be seen in many unofficial utterances in the US local press. The major worry and concern is centering on the future of Syria should Mr. Assad be ousted before a clearer appreciation of the identity of who the rebels are who might take over Syria. The concern is that Jihadists are running rampant in Syria without the fear of being identified.

3.2

Jihadists Future Plans

The BBC investigations indicate that these jihadists are committed to establishing an Islamic state by violent means and are now openly started to be seen on the battlefield in Syria. This new development has become a highly streamed topic on the jihadist online forums much to the chagrin of the western allies who are already far too deep to pull back as this might send a wrong signal to the Assad Government. There has been an attempt by the Free Syrian army (FSA) to quell the fears in public proclamations but that has done little to quench the growing agony of frustration and bewilderment of the antiAssad forces. The FSA is currently scrutinizing the jihadists in Syria very closely, considering them "a real threat after the Assad regime falls," according to a senior FSA officer. Colonel Ahmad Fahd al-Nimah, the head of the Military Revolutionary Council in
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Deraa, told the BBC: "Jihadists would pose a real threat in the next stage for our society and our Arab and Western friends." The greatest fear of Israel, the USA and generally the NATO allies is that Syria could erupt postAssad into a new conflict over control of the country, in which the more hard-line Islamic groups would be the best armed. This new fear is dependent largely on what is currently happening in the arms supply that has been feeding the rebel groups in Syria. In several towns along the Turkey-Syria border, rebel commanders can be found seeking weapons and meeting with shadowy intermediaries, in a chaotic atmosphere where the true identities and affiliations of any party can be extremely difficult to ascertain.
Some observers are ruling out the possibility that jihadist groups would attack Israel if they succeed in establishing military bases in Syria. Those who believe this are counting on the fact that these groups have never been involved in a confrontation against Israel. This theory is partially correct, however, we must remember that al-Qaeda attacked a hotel full of Israeli tourists in Kenya's Mombasa city. Al-Qaeda has also made a failed attempt to target Israeli Airplanes, in addition to attacks against Israeli tourists in Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh and the serial bombings of Egyptian gas pipelines which carry supplies from Egypt to Israel. During the Libyan uprising against Gaddafi's regime, the opposition was adamant that alQaeda-linked groups had no role to play in the military struggle against Gaddafi's troops, and accused anybody who tried to report this, or serving the interests of Gaddafi, but it was later discovered that these groups were largely involved in the fights, and they still have a strong presence in Libya especially in the southern region, where extremist Islamists have founded an Islamist Emirate in Darna city.3 It is a warning to the Western Countries. "The jihadists' ideology contradicts with what the FSA is fighting for," Col Nimah told the BBC. The latter are fighting under the banner of democracy and a civil state rather than sharia law that the Jihadist intends to establish post-Assad. Incidentally, the difference between the Jihadist and the FSA in their modus operandi is reminiscent of the difference
3

http://www.abdelbariatwan.com/Syria%20a%20failed%20state.htm

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between Iraqi resistance groups and jihadists during the American invasion in 2003. The jihadists in Syria are using tactics that are closer to so-called "peace-time terrorism" tactics, unlike the tactics the FSA uses, which are mainly open raids and clashes.

The BBC4 reported that increasingly the Jihadists have started to use Iraq-type ambushing tactics 30% of the time. Alarmingly, they are now resorting to assassination in 23% of their attacks. Some 16% of jihadists' attacks consisted of IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and car bombs. Kidnapping and suicide bombs represented 8% and 7% respectively of these attacks. This is not the way the western democracy would have wanted to effect change in the war-ravaged Syrian nation. IEDs and kidnapping were very common in Iraq. It is notable that all kidnaps committed by the groups end with the killing of the hostage, without seeking any ransom for instance. This of course has made the USA to quickly move in and designate the Syrian rebel group al-Nusrah5 Front as a terrorist organization and at the same time formally recognizing Syrias Opposition Coalition (FSA) as representative of the Syrian people. The Obama administration wants to send a clear message that while it supports Syrias Opposition Coalition to lead Syrias democratic transition if or when the Assad regime falls, there is no place for extremism in the countrys future.

In an exclusive interview with ABCs Barbara Walters, President Obama declared that while the United States was ready to fully acknowledge the group of Syrias rebels as the legitimate opposition to the Assad regime, groups with ties to al Qaeda like the al-Nurah front would not be tolerated. This is a dilemma that the Obama administration faces at the moment as it is entirely impossible to regulate who they deal with in the Syrian confusion as the various factions of the rebel groups are inter-twinned and symbiotically fight against Assad. The reasons advanced for this action was based on the reports that Since November 2011, al-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19091400

http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2012/12/obama-officially-backs-jihadists-in-syria-slaughterof-alawite-village-follows.html

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Nusrah Front had claimed nearly 600 attacks, ranging from more than 40 suicide attacks to small arms and improvised explosive device operations in major city centers,

indiscriminately killing civilians and soldiers without distinction. During these attacks numerous innocent Syrians have been killed including children and women. Through these attacks, al-Nusrah has sought to portray itself as part of the legitimate Syrian opposition while it is, in fact, an attempt by AQI to hijack the struggles of the Syrian people for its own malign purposes that are undemocratic and reminiscent of terrorist signatures.

4.0

Accusations

The Syrian rebels fighting to unseat President Bashar al-Assad face a growing list of accusations that they have been involved with executions and torture. A video was posted online two weeks ago showing the aftermath of the apparent executions of pro-al-Assad militiamen during the rebels capture of an intelligence centre in Aleppo. The leadership of the rebel army condemned and denied responsibility for the execution of regime loyalists in the northern city of Aleppo. Experts and officials say the strength and numbers of extremist groups in Syria like JabhatNusra6 have grown as the conflict has dragged on. Officially, Jabhat al-Nusra militants are an independent, loyal only to their goal of establishing a caliphate ruled in accordance with Sharia law. But on the ground they have often teamed up with the Free Syrian Army, according to one of FRANCE 24s Observers, a local rebel commander. The group first appeared in January 2012, vowing to fight against the Assad regime. Since then it has claimed responsibility for some of the conflict's most deadly attacks, including bombings in Aleppo, Deraa and Damascus that killed scores. A year ago, Jabhat al-Nusra carried out the first suicide bombing and dozens have followed. Videos have surfaced online of the summary executions they have carried out, notably several weeks ago when pleading Syrian soldiers

http://www.france24.com/en/20121211-syria-jabhat-nusra-civil-war-observers-third-army

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were piled onto the floor and summarily shot. Administration officials did acknowledge they are concerned about the increasing influence radical Islamists are having on Syrias opposition movement.

4.1

War Crimes

The U.N. on Aug. 15 2 0 1 2 reported for the first time that both Syrian President Bashar al-Assads forces and rebels7 had perpetrated war crimes, in a highly anticipated report that spelled out clear responsibility for attacks on civilians and that could be used in possible prosecutions against the leader and others. It also contained an ominous warning that Syrias 17 -month- old civil war was moving in brutal directions on all fronts, as Assads forces step up air assaults and anti-government armed groups seek stronger firepower to fight back. The FSA code of conduct emphasizes a commitment to respect for human rights and international humanitarian law, and pledges that the group will not practice any form of torture, rape, mutilation, or degradation. The code dictates that Nations that are at war must preserve prisoners rights and should not exercise any of the above practices in order to obtain confessions. Bothe sides have been accused of violating human rights and a repeat of Libya after the fall of Mohammed Gaddafi is seen to be developing slowly but emphatically. United Nations investigators had already collected evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity by government and rebel forces in Syria that could support prosecutions of those responsible by national or international tribunals.

Thousands of videos depicting violence and combat in Syria 8 have been posted on the Internet since the conflict began, mostly by anti-government activists aiming to vilify the behavior of the Syrian military and pro-government militia known as the shabiha9.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/11/02/syria-rebel-warcrimes-video.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/world/middleeast/un-says-syria-execution-video-shows-apparent-warcrime.html
9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shabiha

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Unfortunately, many videos cannot be independently corroborated, and experts are cautious about drawing conclusions from video that could have been digitally fabricated or altered.

During war, videos are among the few ways to obtain information and assess the course of the conflict in a country where outside news media coverage is severely restricted and dangerous. There are a lot of YouTube footage of weapons in the conflict, for example, that have revealed the use of widely outlawed cluster bomb munitions dropped by the Syrian Air Force as well as the emergence of smuggled shoulder-fired, heat-seeking missiles in the insurgent arsenals.

4.2

Factions amongst the FSA

One of the most unfortunate factors delaying the revolution to completely take effect is the lack of unity among the rebels. Although many rebel units fight under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, ( FS A) their commands are localized and poorly coordinated according to observers on the ground. Not surprisingly, Syrias uprising has evolved into an all-out civil war with sectarian overtones, pitting the mainly Sunni rebels against security forces dominated by Assads minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Assad is backed by Shiite-led Iran and opposed by most Arab states, which are ruled by Sunnis. There has been reported tension in the Kurdistan Region where clashes between the Salahaddin Ayubi brigade of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and armed units of Peoples Defense Units (YPG) in Aleppo last week signaled the threat of a possible Kurdish-Arab war. Tensions also flared when the YPG, an arm of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) raided bases in the Kurdish city of Kobane. Kurdish parties say the PYD violated the Erbil Agreement10 by removing Syrian revolution flags in Kobane.

10

http://www.kurdishglobe.net/display-article.html?id=3F557EB905A63A2F91E55D01777F0172

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Various issues have arisen that threaten unity amongst the rebels. For instance, the leader of the Salahaddin Ayubi brigade criticized the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and accused them of carrying out the agenda of the Syrian regime" in reference to the YPG and PYD, affiliates of the PKK.

As noted, Eid 2012 in Syria was bloody and violent. On the first day of Eid, in the Kurdish neighborhood of Sheikh Maqsud in Aleppo, there were clashes between the FSA and YPG for the first time. More than 30 people died on both sides. Malik Kurdi, a Kurdish leader in the FSA, made a statement to Kurdinews a day after the clashes in Aleppo. He stated that some Kurdish groups and the Salahuddin Ayubi brigade known as the Kurdish wing of the FSA encouraged the FSA to enter the Kurdish neighborhood of Ashrafiyeh in Aleppo.

Middle East scholars do not see this uprising as being just about the fall of Assad. They enthuse that this is about the Sunni Muslims of Syria taking back their country and pushing out the minority that have been oppressing them for generations now.

4.3

Foreign fighters

The presence of foreign fighters is a sensitive issue for Syrias rebels. Assads government has taken to referring to the rebels as Gulf-Turkish forces, accusing the Sunni-led Arab Gulf states and Turkey of arming, funding and leading them to overthrow the government. There are specific groups that currently running amok in the Country:

According to the rebels and independent observers, the Western governments are bringing future calamity upon themselves by delaying responding militarily because there are Jihadists that are practically moving and conversing on Syria as the Assads regime slowly but surely crumbles under pressure. The rebel leaders pragmatically state that t he longer
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theyleave this door open for this torture and this massacre to carry on, the more young men will drop what they have in this life and search for the afterlife, signifying suicide bomber tactics that were observed after Saddam Hussein fail in Iraq. The rebels threaten that if the West and other countries do not move fast, it will no longer be normal everyday but it will be the real extreme guys who will take it to another level.

4.4

Safety of chemical weapons

On July 23, 2012 Syria admitted to possessing a stockpile of chemical weapons which it claims are reserved for national defense against foreign countries. A Syrian government spokesman for the foreign ministry indicated that it would use chemical and biological weapons if Syria was attacked by foreign powers during the Syrian civil war. The same spokesman also said that Syria would never use these weapons against Syrian citizens. In contradiction, the Syrian military restarted chemical weapons testing at a base on the outskirts of Aleppo. It later emerged that the Syrian military had restarted testing of chemical weapons at a base on the outskirts of Aleppo in August 2012. Chemical weapons are a major point of discussion between the Syrian government and world leaders, with military intervention being considered by the West as a potential consequence of the use of such weapons. Syria is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has repeatedly attempted to purchase small research type nuclear reactors from China, Russia, Argentina, or other countries. Despite these purchases being openly disclosed and IAEA monitored, international pressure has caused all these reactor purchases to be cancelled. Syria has open and IAEA monitored nuclear research programs including a Chinese made non-reactor miniature neutron source. The Western allies have grave concerns that Syria might be ready to use chemical weapons on its own people or its neighbors, or that the weapons could fall into the hands of a radical extremist group post Assad era. Russia on the other hand has continuously
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downplayed USA and Western allies fears that a desperate Assad could deploy chemical weapons and pointedly tunneled concerns that the greatest danger was that part of Syrias chemical arsenal could fall into the hands of rebels. Both U.S. and Israeli officials have also voiced concern that chemical armaments could end up in the hands of insurgents, who have overrun a number of military bases. Syrias fragmented rebel legions include hard-core Islamist brigades hostile to the West and sympathetic to Al Qaeda, the Wests greatest terrorist enemy. Rumors and speculation about whether Assad would use the chemical weapons have increased as the regime has started crumbling from within. A former top general in Syria's chemical weapons program11 says he doesn't doubt for a moment that President Bashar al-Assad will deploy his chemical weapons arsenal as he tries to hold onto power and crush the uprising that started almost two years ago. These kind of unconfirmed assertions are feared to be capable of driving the western Countries to be propelled to act prematurely like what happened in Iraq in 2003 when the USA and the United Kingdom drummed up false information to oust Saddam Hussein with the threat of Weapons of Mass destruction (WMD) at its core. Using unverified sources for making decisions that might affect an entire region is immensely flawed and history will judge the decision makers harshly in things were to spiral out of control in the Middle East.

5.0

Perceived consequences

As the World debates on what to do with the war in Syria, the fact remains that there is a war going on in Syria, and that one side will win and one side will lose. There are two outcomes that paradoxically are both unattractive

5.1

Assad remains in power

Though seemingly ugly, Assad remaining in power has its own advantages.
11

http://abcnews.go.com/International/syrias-assad-chemical-weapons-general-nowdefector/story?id=17926963#.UM4MhG_ZZ8E

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(a) Assad is the only leader who can keep Syria intact and is a leader who has been

reforming since taking office. First, he is the only person in the Syrian political system that seems able to run the country and to unite the people.
(b) His Sunni wife, his alliance with Sunni business circles in major metropolitan cities and,

more importantly,
(c) the sizable Christian communities supporting him and not the opposition groups at least

give him a huge advantageous when it comes to remaining in power.

(d) He is a symbol of stability in the region. (e) Unlike the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Assad has indeed been trying to reform his system.

It is a very slow process but the perception of people in Syria is positive toward Assad.
(f) More importantly, the Christian minority does not support the opposition groups, who are

a key group that would influence the Western public opinion.

(g) The greatest fear is that the period of transition in the Arab Spring countries has proved

that Islamists are coming to power, making the West nervous.

(h) Israel especially is very concerned with the election victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in

Egypt. This means it is likely that Israel and the West will be hesitant about supporting opposition groups in Syria. With all the above reasons being advanced, the consequences of an Assad victory are dire to the west and they are prevaricating on how to treat the post Assad era. Some fears the west has are cemented in misty speculations and warranted fears as they include:

(i)

They include a clear lesson to any other dictator faced with a popular uprising: kill enough people and you get to stay in power. The Arab Spring will be over. Despots in places like Belarus and China will sleep easier.

(ii)

Then there are the international dimensions. This war is not contained within
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Syrias borders. Iran is desperate for Assad to win, and is sending Revolutionary Guards disguised as religious pilgrims to ensure that he does. (iii) With Assad gone, Iran loses its most important ally in the Levant. Hezbollah loses a patron. Lebanon gets another chance to become an independent country. (iv) There are risks to a rebel victory, too. Horrible revenge attacks against Alawites the minority sect to which Assad belongs are possible. (v) There are credible reports that al-Qaeda fighters are within rebel ranks. And even without them, (vi) The world cannot be sure what a post-Assad Syria will look like. But we know what (vii) Syria under Assads thumb is like and its an ugly and tragic place

5.2

Assad out of power

The United States institute of peace12 have voiced out their position on post Assad era. They assert that the Syrian revolution has taken a terrible toll. Tens of thousands of Syrians have been killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. Millions have been forced from their homes. Urban centers have been destroyed, villages bombed, and communities subjected to horrific brutality at the hands of regime forces and Assads loyalist militias. (a) There will be a serious ant-western Islamic state that does not support western values as the fabric of Syrian society is observed to be fraying under the pressure of escalating sectarian tensions. Washington and its allies are worried about the makeup of a new regime but al-Nusra is deeply embedded in the insurgency. (b) The militarization of the revolution and the proliferation of armed opposition units pose long term challenges for rule of law and security.
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http://www.usip.org/events/syria-after-assad-managing-the-challenges-transition

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(c) Damage to infrastructure and to the Syrian economy will require tens of billions of dollars to repair. (d) The Western diplomatic recognition and terrorist designation will aim to separate these radical elements from the main body of the rebels. In all probability, though, they are too embedded in the overall insurgency for this to be done. (e) The rebels, with their clear paramilitary capabilities mean they will be well placed to help ensure that, if and when the Assad regime falls, the aftermath will be an unstable and insecure Syria. This s the Frankenstein that the western world has created and unfortunately, solutions will remain elusive unless something happens dramatically to ease the stalemate as it stands today.

6.0

What should the world do?

As the news seeping out of a bitterly divided and blood soaked Syria grows more alarming by the day, scholars as well as pundits, expatriates, and concerned citizens are asking what can be done. A logical step, a vote from the United Nations Security Council calling for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assads resignation, was quashed early last month by a veto from council members Russia and China. It was reported in the Washington post that the United States has a window to facilitate an orderly transition in Syria without deploying military force. Paradoxically, the window is narrowing and the Obama administration would need to adjust its political strategy to succeed. Diplomatically, the administration has focused on engaging the U . N . Security Council and the Friends of Syria, a French-created group of 88 participating states, seven international organizations and one observer (the Vatican). This initiative from the Security Council has remained in stalemate by Russian and Chinese vetoes, and the Friends of Syria is too unwieldy to reach agreement on operational measures that would change conditions on the ground.13

13

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what -the-us-should-do-in-syria/2012/08/07/45e2913c-e02311e1-8fc5-a7dcf1fc161d_story.html

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While other pressures have been brought to bear, such as the United States firming up sanctions first put in place in 2011, al-Assad shows no sign of backing down. 14 The rebels are emboldened by the support that they are receiving from the USA and Britain with their allies like Canada, Turkey, Jordan, Quetta, and Israel. These decisions reflect the fact that Washington and its allies are becoming preoccupied with a post-Assad era and the makeup of a successor regime. There is a growing perception that the Assad regime is now coming under serious pressure for the first time in nearly two years of conflict. A leading priority is to minimize or prevent any role for Islamist groups in the new Syria, perhaps the main reason for designating the al-Nusra Front as terrorist. It is a predictable choice of action, but two factors on the ground make its impact anything but straightforward. It seems like the World has run out of options. There are some questions though that should be answered by any Citizen of the World, whether a Christian or a Moslem: (a) Should the UN, the Friends of Syria, the League of Arab States, or any single nation go beyond verbal condemnation to intervene in Syria instead of the pathetic verbal stands, sanctions, and empty threats that have been issued without being efficacious? (b) Should the Security Council unanimously institute a no-fly zone in Syria like it did in

Libya during the civil uprising after persuading the rebels to lay down their arms and Syrian planes to be grounded?
(c) Do the al-Assad regimes recent actions against the people of Homs and Alepo

amount to war crimes or crimes against humanity? Whats involved in pursuing these charges in international court? What about the beheadings reported in international newspapers about the cruel actions by the rebels? Do they equally amount to war

14

http://www.bu.edu/today/2012/syria-what-can-or-should-the-world-do/

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crimes and should be followed up the international court of Justice?

(d) There is no doubt the government of President Bashar al-Assad carries the

overwhelming responsibility for the unfolding tragedy in Syria, the attempt to militarily defeat the regime is the wrong strategy if the goals are reducing violence and protecting innocent civilians.
(e) The best strategy for those who wish to avoid a protracted war in Syria is to bring

Russia and Iran to the international diplomatic table. Russian and Iranian participation are essential to a viable post-al-Assad transition; the alternative, a transitional plan generated exclusively by the United States and its allies, can be accomplished only through force.
(f) To date, external backers of the two sides have focused on arming their local proxies

rather than negotiating. Russia and Iran have reiterated their commitment to the Assad government, both diplomatically and through direct support. Recent reports suggest that the United States has doubled down on funding the rebels with a secret presidential order authorizing military assistance (stopping short for now of actual "lethal aid," which has been outsourced to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in coordination with Turkey).To insist on the military path without engaging Assad's backers, the Iranian government is to condemn Syrian civilians to escalating violence in pursuit of regime change.15

7.0

Conclusion

Conclusively, to facilitate transition, the United States should engage both Iran and Russia through creative diplomacy. Iran's cooperation on Syria might be linked to the question of its nuclear program, perhaps forestalling sanctions that have yet to come into effect.

15

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/15/opinion/bali-rana-syria/index.html

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There will never be a resolution in Syria as long as Russia and China who have the power of veto in the UN assembly are treated as though they are second class world players to the US and British governments. Russia has military bases in Syria which they would not easily give up to Western governments without putting up a fight. That means Russias strategic interests must be addressed, such as preserving the Russian navy's current access to the Mediterranean through Syrian ports. If the goal is to end the violence and transition to a post-al-Assad Syria, this is the only credible option. In resigning as special envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan drew attention to the urgent need for diplomacy, not clandestine intervention. Unless this warning is heeded, Annan's likely replacement, Lakhdar Brahimi, may find no other way out of a lengthy civil war of devastating proportions, both for the Syrian people and for the Middle East as a whole. The World is watching what the big powers are going to do with Syria. The idea is to shine the torch on the clandestine activities of the big powers whilst they feign diplomacy and care for the people of Syria. History will judge these Nations. The Syrians are waiting

8.0

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