PROBABILITY During the ancient times, one of the reasons in the development of probability theory was peoples under

quenchable thirst for gambling. in an effort to increase their winnings, gamblers called upon mathematics provide optimum strategies for various game chance. As a result of this early development of probability theory, statistical interference, with all its predictions and generalizations, has branched out far beyond games of chance to encompass many other fields associated with chance occurrences, such as politics, business, weather forecasting, and scientific research. for these predictions and generalizations to be reasonably accurate, an understanding of the basic probability theory is essentials. PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT Experiment it is a process that, when performed, results in one and only one of many observations . Outcomes observations resulted from conducting an experiment. Sample space the collection of all outcomes of an experiment. Examples : 1. In tossing a coin, S has two outcomes, i.e. S = { tail, head} or S = { T,H } . 2. In tossing a die, S has six outcomes , i.e. S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }. 3. In tossing a pair of dice, S has 36 outcomes i.e. s = { ( 1, 1 ) , ( 1, 2 ), ( 1, 3 ), ( 1, 4 ), ( 1, 5 ), ( 1, 6 ), ( 2, 1 ), ( 2, 2 ), . . . , ( 6, 4 ), ( 6, 5 ), ( 6, 6) } . Event An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment. Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one event occurs, the other cannot, and vice versa. An event which cannot be decomposed is referred to as simple event. The classical probability rule is applied to compute the probability of events for an experiment all of whose outcomes are equally likely. According to the classical probability rule, the probability of an event E is equal to the number of outcomes occurring in event E divided by the total number of outcomes for the experiment,
P (E) = Number of outcomes in E f = Total number of outcomes for the exp eriment n

The following illustrate the probability of events : 1. E1 = the event of getting at least 1 head appears in 2 tosses of a fair coin, then E1 = { TH, HT, HH } , the total outcomes = 4, then
P(E 2 ) = 3 = 0.75 4

2. E2 = the event of getting the sum of 8 appears in a single toss of a pair dice, then E2={(2,6),(6,2),( 3,5),(5,3),(4,4)}, then Examples : 1. In a deck of 52 cards what is the probability of getting a) a heart ? b) an ace ? c) a red card ? Solution : a) Since there are 13 hearts, then the probability of the event E of getting a heart card is
P( E ) = 13 1 = = 0.25 52 4
P(E) = 5 36

b) Since there are four aces, then the probability of the event of getting an ace card is
P( E) = 4 1 = = 0.08 52 13

c) Since there are 26 red card, then the probability of the event of getting a red card is
P( E ) = 26 1 = = 0 .5 52 2

2. Find the probability of getting 3 aces and 2 jacks in a selection of 5 cards out of 52. Solution : The number of ways selecting 3 aces out of 4 is
4

C3 =

4! =4 3!1!
C2 = 4! =6 2 !2!

The number of ways obtaining 2 jacks out of 4 is

4

Then there (4) (6) = 24 ways of getting 3 aces and 2 jacks in 52 deck of cards. The total number of ways of selecting 5 cards out of 52 is
52

C5 =

52 ! = 2,598,960 5! 47 !

Thus the probability of the event E of getting 3 aces and 2 jacks in a selection of 5 cards from a deck of 52 cards is 24 1 P( E ) = = = 9.2 x 10 6
2,598,960 108290

Properties of Probability 1. For every event A, 0 P( A ) 1 2. P( A ) = 1 3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P( A or B) = P( A B) = P( A ) + P( B) 4. If A1, A2, . . . An is a sequence of mutually exclusive events then 5. If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then P( A B ) = P( A ) + P( B) P( A and B ) 6. If A and B are independent events , then P( A and B) = P( A B) = P( A ) P( B) 7. If A and B are dependent events, then P( A / B) = Examples : 1. A group of 2000 randomly selected adults were asked if they are in favour of or against abortion . If one person is selected at random from these 2000 adults , find the probability that this person is a) in favour of abortion? b) against abortion? c) female and against abortion?. The table below gives the results of this survey. Male Female Solution :
1115 223 = = 0.56 . 2000 400 885 177 = = 0.44 b) The probability that this person is against abortion is P( E ) = 2000 400
P( A B ) P( B )
P( A1 A 2 . . . A n ) = P( A1 ) + P( A 2 ) + + P( A n )

In Favour 495 620 1115

Against 405 480 885

a) The probability that this person is in favour of abortion is P( E ) =

c)

The

probability

that

this

person

is

female

and

against

abortion

is

480 96 P( E ) = = = 0.24 2000 177

2. In a permutation of the word white is selected at random , find the probability that the permutation a) begins with a consonant; b) ends with a vowel. Solution : a) Since the first letter is a consonant, we need to permutate the other 4 letters to form the word.
4 P4

4! = 24 ways ( 5 4)

, since there are three consonants then 3(24) = 72 ways

= 5! = 120 ways ( 5 5) !

There are 5 letters

P( E ) =

5 P5

The probability that the permutation begins with a consonant is

72 3 = = 0. 6 120 5

b) Since the last letter required is a vowel, we need to permutate the other 4 letters to form the word.
4 P4

( 5 4)

4!

= 24 ways ,

since there are 2 vowels, then 2(24) = 48 ways.

= 5! = 120 ways ( 5 5) !

There are 5 letters

P( E ) =

5 P5

The probability that the permutation ends with a vowel is

48 2 = = 0. 4 120 5

Marginal Probability Marginal probability is the probability of a single event without consideration of any other event. It is also called simple event. Conditional Probability Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A is written as P(A/B) and read as the probability of A given that B has already occurred .
P( A / B ) = P( B and A ) P( B )

and

P( B / A ) =

P( A and B ) P( A )

Examples : 1. The probability that a randomly selected student from a college is a sophomore is 0.20, and the joint probability that the student is a math major and a sophomore is 0.05. Find the conditional probability that a student selected at random is a math major given that he or she is a sophomore. Solution : Let us define the following event, A = the student selected is a sophomore B = the student selected is a math major P(A) = 0.20 P(A and B) = 0.05
P( B / A ) = P( A and B ) P( A )

0.05 = 0.25 020

Thus, the probability is 0.25 that a student selected at random is a math major given that he or she is a sophomore. 2. A BS Math student estimates that the probability that he will pass Algebra is 0.5; the probability that he will pass Physics is 0.6; and the probability that he will pass both courses is 0.45. Determine a) the probability that he will pass Algebra given that he passed his Physics course; b) the probability that he will pass Physics given that he passed his Algebra. Solution : Let A = the event of passing Algebra B = the event of passing Physics A and B = the event of passing both courses PA) = 0.5 P(B) = 0.6 P(A and B = 0.45

a) the probability that he will pass Algebra given that he passed his Physics course P( B and A ) 0.45 P( A / B ) = = 0.75 = P( B ) 0. 6 b) the probability that he will pass Physics given that he passed his Algebra course
P( B / A ) = P( A and B) P( A )

0.45 = 0 .9 0.5

a.) A u B is the event that occurs if A does not occur b.) A n B is the event that occurs if A and B occur. c.) A, the complement of A is the event that occurs if A does not occur. d.)Two events, A and B are mutually exclusive if they are disjoint, i.e., if A n B = 0, in order words, A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously.

The probability of an event A is the sum of the weight of all sample points in A. Therefore, 0 P(A) 1, P(0) = 0, and P(S)=1. Examples: 1. A coin is tossed twice. what is the probability that at least one hand appears? 2. A die is located in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. a.) If A is the event that a number less 4 occurs on a single toss of a die, find P(A). b.) Let B be the event that an event number turns up and let C be the event that a number divisible by three occurs. Find (/) P (B U C), (//) P (B C) Theorem: if an experiment can result in any one of N different equally outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to event A, then the probability of event A is P(A)=n/N. Examples: 1. 2. 3. A mixture of candles contains 6 mints, 4 toffees, and 3 chocolate. If a person makes a random selection of one these candles, find the probability of getting a) a mint, and b) a toffee and c) a chocolate. In poker hand consisting of 5 cards, finds the probability of holding 2 aces, and jack. Three horses, A, B and C, are in race. A is twice as likely to win as B, and D is as likely to win as C. a) What are their respective probabilities of winning? b) What is the probability that B or C will win? A coin is loaded in a way that the head is twice as likely to appear that the tall. Find b) P(H). Three light bulbs are chosen at random from 15 bulbs of which 5 are

5. defective. Find the a) probability that none is defective; b) exactly one is defective; and b) at least one is defective 7.2 Additive Rules If A and B are any two events, then P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A1 U A2 U An ) = P(A1 ) + P(A2) + P(An ) If A1A2A3, An is a partition of a sample space S, then

P(A1 U A2 .U An ) = P(A1) + P(A2) +P(An) = P(S)=1 For three events A,B, and C P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A B) P(A C) P(B C) + P(ABC) Examples: 1. A class is composed of 10 men and 20 women of which half the men and half the women have brown eyes, find the probability A that a person chosen at random is a man or has brown eyes. M = event that a person is a man B = event that a person is a woman Solution: P(MB) = P(M) + P(B) P(M B) = 10 + 15 = 5 OR + 2 30 30 30 3 2. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice is tossed? Solution: A = event that a total of 7 will appear B= event that a total of 11 will appear 3. If the probabilities are 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, 0.23 respectively that a person purchasing a new automobile will choose green, white, red or blue. What is the probability that a buyer will purchase a new automobile in one of those colors? Solution: P(G U W U R U B) = P(G) + P(W) + P( R) + P(B) Theorem: If A and A are complementary events, then P(A) + P(A) = 1

Example: If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 or more cars on any given work day are 0.12, 0.19, 0.24, 0.10 and 0.07 respectively, what is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day at work? Solution: Let A = event that at least 5 cars are serviced A = event that fewer than 5 cars are serviced P(G U W U R U B) = P(G) + P(W) + P( R) + P(B) = 0.09 + 0.15 + 0.21 + 0.30 = 0.68

7.3 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that event A has occurred is called a conditional probability. The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B/A), is defined by P(B/A) = P(A B) Example: A random sample of 200 adults is classified below according to sex and the level of education attained. EDUCATION Elementary Secondary College TOTAL MALE 38 28 22 88 FEMALE 45 50 17 112 TOTAL 83 78 39 200 if P(A) > 0

If a person is at random from this group, find the probability that a) the person is a male that has secondary education b) the person is a female that does not college degree Solution: Let : M = event that a person is a male S = event that a person has secondary education C = event that a person does not have a college degree F = event that a person is a female a) b) P(M/S) = P(M S) = 28 = 0.36 P(S) 78 P(F/E) = P(F S) = 45 + 50 = 0.59 P(C) 83 + 78

7.4 MULTIPLICATIVE RULE Definition: Two events A and b are independent if and only if

P(B/A) = P(B) P(A/B) = P(A) Otherwise, A and B are dependent. In other words, the occurrence of B has no impact on the odds of occurrence of A; hence, the occurrence of A is independent of the occurrence of B. Theorem: If and experiment the events A and B can both occur, P(A B) = P(A) P(B/A) P(B A) = P(B) P(A/B) Two events A and B are independent if and only if P(A B) = P(A) P(A)

Examples: 1. The probability that a married man watches a certain television show is 0.4 and the probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.5 the probability that a man watches the show wife watches is 0.7 find the probability that a) a married couple watches the show; b) a wife watches the show that her husband does; c) at least 1 person of the married couple will watch the show Let A = event that a married man watches a TV show B = event that a married woman watches a TV show A/B = event that a watches the show give that his wife does 2. A fuse box contains 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective? Solution Theorem: If, in an experiment, the events A1, A2 ,, Ak can occur, then P(A1 A2 .. Ak ) = P(A1 ) P(A1 /A2) P(A2/A1)P(A2/A1 A2) P(Ak/A1 A2 Ak1) If the events A1, A2 ,.. , Ak are independent, then P( A1 A2 .. Ak) = = P(A1 ) P(A2) .. P(Ak) 7.5 BAYES RULE

Theorem: If the events B1, B2, .. Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S such that P(B1) 0 for I = 1, 2 .., k, then for any event A of S, Theorem: (Bayes Rule): Theorem: If the events B1, B2, .. Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S such that P(B1) 0 for I = 1, 2 .., k, then for any event A in such that P(A) 0 P ( B1/A) = P(B1 A) = P(B1) P(A/ B1) P(B1 A) P(B1) P(A/ B1)

Example: People plan to enforce speed limits by using radar at 4 different city limits. The radar traps at each of the locations L1, L,2, L3 30%, 20%, and 30% of the time and if a person who is speeding probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, of passing through these location. a. What is the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket? If the person received a speeding ticket on his way to work, what is the probability passed through the radar trap located at L2.