In

the era of globalization, the geographical boundaries bear a little meaning and the term "Free trade" under W.T.O has compelled most of the developing countries including India to attempt rapid development through judicious and optimal management of natural resources. To have a sustainable management of these natural resources, reliable and comprehensive information is highly required to develop strategies for their better management rather than exploitation. In case of Agriculture front, to boost the production a proper management strategy with the policy planning can go a long way to meet the objective. A sustained production depends upon so many of complex factors viz. climatic, edaphic, genetic, agronomic management. These factors can better be managed by a planned guidance through different Simulation models. A model is a simple representation of the essential aspects of an existing system with some degree of reliability, whereas simulation is the study of the system and its behaviour through the use of models. These crop models can be used as an aid to interpret experimental results and help the researcher to understand the operations involved in the field management. Moreover, these models can be used for the quantification of the process with a greater accuracy. As field trials involve large treatments to be experimented for a number of years, a validated model of the system can be helpful in reducing the overall costs of field tests by specifying the application of these treatments in a precise manner. Planners, economists and researchers have always been interested in finding out ways and means to estimate crop yields in advance to the extent possible. With this objective, several regression models have been developed by many workers to predict the relationship with agricultural productivity and its components. These models when dealing with multi-year time series usually include a technology trend factor, thus are lumping everything other than climatic factors in one regressor. However, such analysis where the effects of some specific factors are determined without consideration of interactions and feedbacks from other controlling elements can often be misleading. In addition to the climatic factors, there is a large number of edaphic, hydrologic, biotic, agronomic and socio-economic factors that influence crop growth and productivity. Crop growth is a very complex phenomenon and a product of a series of complicated interactions of soil, plant and weather. Dynamic crop growth simulation is a relatively recent technique that facilitates quantitative understanding of the effects of these factors, and agronomic management factors on crop growth and productivity. These models are quantitative description of the mechanisms and processes that result in growth of the crop. The processes could be crop physiological, meteorological, physical and chemical processes. Such a modelling assumes that the rate of change of system can be closely approximated by considering the rate of processes to be constant during short time periods. This is based on state variable approach in which current states (for example, weights of plant parts, evapotranspiration, leaf area index) are updated after every short interval (usually one day) considering the previous state and the rate which is influenced by internal crop properties and environment. This is repeated till the crop is mature.

Agricultural models are mathematical equations that represent the reactions that occur within the plant and the interactions between the plant and its environment. Owing to the complexity of the system and the incomplete status of present knowledge, it becomes impossible to completely represent the system in mathematical terms and hence, agricultural models images of the reality. Unlike in the fields of physics and engineering, universal models do not exist within the agricultural sector. Models are built for specific purposes and the level of complexity is accordingly adopted. Inevitably, different models are built for different subsystems and several models may be built to simulate a particular crop or a particular aspect of the production system. The main aim of constructing crop models is to obtain an estimate of the harvestable (economic) yield. According to the amount of data and knowledge that is available within a particular field, models with different levels of complexity are developed. Such as: Empirical models are direct descriptions of observed data and are generally expressed as regression equations (with one or a few factors) and are used to estimate the final yield. Examples of such models include the response of crop yield to fertiliser application, the relationship between leaf area and leaf size in a given plant species. The limitation of this model site specific, it cannot be used universally. A mechanistic model is one that describes the behaviour of the system in terms of lower-level attributes. Hence, there is some mechanism, understanding or explanation at the lower levels. These models have the ability to mimic relevant physical, chemical or biological processes and to describe how and why a particular response results. A static model is one that does not contain time as a variable even if the end-products of cropping systems are accumulated over time, e.g., the empirical models. In contrast dynamic models explicitly incorporate time as a variable and most dynamic models are first expressed as differential equations. A deterministic model is one that makes definite predictions for quantities (e.g., animal live-weight, crop yield or rainfall) without any associated probability distribution, variance, or random element. However, variations due to inaccuracies in recorded data and to heterogeneity in the material being dealt with are inherent to biological and agricultural systems. In certain cases, deterministic models may be adequate despite these inherent variations but in others they might prove to be unsatisfactory e.g. in rainfall prediction. The greater the uncertainty in the system, the more inadequate deterministic models becomes and in contrast to these stochastic models appears. Simulation models form a group of models that is designed for the purpose of imitating the behaviour of a system. They are mechanistic and in the majority of cases they are deterministic. Since they are designed to mimic the system at short time intervals (daily time-step), the aspect of variability related to daily change in weather and soil conditions is integrated. The short simulation

time-step demands that a large amount of input data (climate parameters, soil characteristics and crop parameters) be available for the model to run. These models usually offer the possibility of specifying management options and they can be used to investigate a wide range of management strategies at low costs. Most crop models that are used to estimate crop yield fall within this category. Simulation models widely used in Indian conditions: Software CropSyst WOFOST ORYZA1 DSSAT CANEGRO InfoCrop Details Wheat & other crops Wheat & maize, Water and nutrient Rice, water Framework of crop simulation models including modules of CERES, CROPGRO and CROPSIM Sugarcane, potential & water stress conds All Major Indian Field crops

In case of using simulation models in a new place, we need to carry out two important processes to match and improve its performance, viz. Model calibration Calibration is adjustment of the system parameters so that simulation results reach a predetermined level, usually that of an observation. In many instances, even if a model is based on observed data, simulated values do not exactly comply with the observed data and minor adjustments have to be made for some parameters. Model validation The model validation stage involves the confirmation that the calibrated model closely represents the real situation. The procedure consists of a comparison of simulated output and observed data that have not been previously used in the calibration stage. Ideally, all mechanistic models should be validated both at the level of overall system output and at the level of internal components and processes. The latter is an important aspect because due to the occurrence of feedback loops in biological systems, good prediction of system's overall output could be attributed to compensating internal errors. The strengths of models in general include the abilities to: Provide a framework for understanding a system and for investigating how manipulating it affects its various components Evaluate long-term impact of particular interventions Provide an analysis of the risks involved in adopting a particular strategy

Provide answers quicker and more cheaply than is possible with traditional experimentation

Model use limitation Models are developed by agricultural scientists but the user-group includes the latter as well as breeders, agronomists, extension workers, policy-makers and farmers. As different users possess varying degrees of expertise in the modelling field, misuse of models may occur. Since crop models are not universal, the user has to choose the most appropriate model according to his objectives. Even when a judicious choice is made, it is important that aspects of model limitations be borne in mind such that modelling studies are put in the proper perspective and successful applications are achieved. Conclusion: Models are means to capture, condense and organize knowledge. A well tested model can be a very effective scientific tool for tailor-made introduction of new production technologies, working out alternative crop production strategies, provide answers to the 'WHAT IF' questions raised by technology adopters, to identify problems and prioritize research, to optimize precious resources by reducing the number of field experiments, to assist in policy and strategy applications, for environmental characterization and agro-ecological zoning, for seeking new domains and as a very effective teaching aid. A number of opportunities are now available for the use of crop simulation models for quantifying the effects of various factors including weather on agriculture. The key areas are biophysical characterization of agro-environments, evaluating impact of climate change, optimising crop, pest and disease management, and increasing the efficiency of multi environment testing, forecasting crop yields, etc. to name a few. It is now possible to explain with simulation models the effects of environmental variability on crop growth and yield. The response of standard cultivars to environment can be predicted with confidence. In future, the systems approach, with its well-developed analytical framework, data bases, and powerful simulation models, will be handy to provide answers to many to the current agricultural issues in a relatively shorter time frame. To do this more effectively, greater efforts should be made to develop models that can integrate the effect of all important factors operating in the field environment, for instance, weather, edaphic conditions, management, incidence and effect of pests, and socio-economics. Nevertheless, crop models can be used for a wide range of applications. As research tools, model development and application can contribute to identify gaps in our knowledge, thus enabling more efficient and targeted research planning. Models that are based on sound physiological data are capable of supporting extrapolation to alternative cropping cycles and locations, thus permitting the quantification of temporal and spatial variability. Despite some limitations, the modelling approach remains the best means of assessing the effects of future global climate change, thus helping in the formulation of national policies for mitigation purposes. Other policy issues, like yield forecasting, industry planning, operations management, consequences of management decisions on environmental issues, are also well supported by modelling.