Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: Wednesday, August 8, 2012 3:00 AM EDT

Battleground Polls: Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin July 31- August 6, 2012 Polls in three key presidential battleground states now show some advantages for each candidate: President Barack Obama has a six-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney among Wisconsins likely voters and a narrower four-point edge in Virginia, while Romney now has a five-point edge among likely voters in Colorado.

Colorado: Romney is seen as better able to manage the economy, and voters think his plans are more likely than Obamas to help them financially. In a reversal from 2008, Romney is leading among whites whom Obama won narrowly in 2008. White college graduates, whom Obama carried by 14 points in 2008, are now divided, as are independents. Men and voters over 35 are behind Romney, while the President has strong support from Colorados women and Hispanic voters. Virginia: Obama is helped by strong support from women and black voters, and he is much more likely than Romney to be seen as caring about voters problems. Romney keeps the race close with support from independents and a large lead among whites, especially non-college educated whites. Wisconsin: Obama has the backing of women and voters in union households in a state that he carried easily in 2008. More see him rather than Romney as caring about them, and the President has higher favorable and job approval ratings in Wisconsin than in Colorado or Virginia. In all three states, more voters are optimistic about their states economy than about the nations economy.

Here is where the race now stands in each state. 2012 Vote for President (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Wisconsin 45% 49% 51% 50 45 45

Obama Romney Colorado

An important part of Obamas Colorado coalition from 2008 college-educated white voters are in play this year. Four years ago these white college graduates voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by 56% to 42%; now, they give Romney a small 3-point lead, within the margin of error.

White voters overall, and particularly those without a college degree, support Romney in this poll. In the 2008 election, the President won white voters by 50% to 48%, although he lost to John McCain among those with no college degree. There are age and gender gaps: men favor Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by 17 points, while women favor President Obama over Romney by 8 points. Independents are divided. A majority of voters under 35 support Barack Obama, while Mitt Romney leads among those age 36 and over. Two thirds of Hispanic likely voters - who make up about one in ten likely voters in the state support the President. 2012 Vote for President - Colorado (Among likely voters) Obama Romney 45% 50 39% 51% 55% 46% 40% 5% 94% 45% 41% 46% 37% 68% 56 43 36 50 55 92 4 47 54 49 58 28

All

Men Women Age 18-35 Age 36-64 Age 65+ Republicans Democrats Independents Whites White, college degree White, no college degree Hispanics Virginia

Virginia voters also exhibit a significant gender gap: the President leads by 14 points among Virginias women, and trails by 5 points among men. In 2008 he won both men and women here. There are sizeable age differences in the Old Dominion too: President Obama leads among voters under 64, while Mitt Romney wins among those 65 and older. Romney has a seven point lead among independents in Virginia, and leads by seven points among military families as well. White voters especially those without a college degree support Romney, while black voters strongly favor the President.

All Men Women

2012 Vote for President - Virginia (Among likely voters) Obama Romney 49% 45 45% 54% 58% 49% 42% 5% 97% 43% 38% 48% 31% 93% 43% 50 40 37 44 52 93 2 50 57 48 63 1 50

Age 18-35 Age 36-64 Age 65+ Republicans Democrats Independents Whites White, college degree White, no college degree Blacks Military Households Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Romney has a 10-point lead among men, which would represent a big swing from 2008 when President Obama won them by seven points. However, Barack Obama has a very strong 23 point lead among women. Union households, who make up a quarter of likely Wisconsin voters, support President Obama by nearly two-to-one. Independent voters are divided, as are white voters. President Obama does well among Wisconsins white voters with college degrees, but Romney holds an edge among those without a degree. In 2008 those voters went for President Obama, 52%-47%. Unlike in Colorado and Virginia, the President runs even among voters over 65 in Wisconsin (as he did in 2008). 2012 Vote for President - Wisconsin (Among likely voters) Obama Romney 51% 45 43% Women Age 18-35 Age 36-64 Age 65+ 58% 50% 48% 59% 37 46 48 53 36

All Men

2012 Vote for President - Wisconsin (Among likely voters) Obama Romney Republicans 4% 94 Democrats 94% 4 Independents 48% 47 Whites White, college degree White, no college degree Union households Strength of Support In all three states, majorities of the Presidents supporters say they strongly favor him. Mitt Romneys strongest support comes in Colorado, where 51% of his voters say so. About a fifth of Romneys support comes from a dislike of President Obama. Strength of Support (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Obama Romney Obama Romney Voters Voters Voters Voters Strongly favor 62% 51% 68% 40% Have reservations 30 27 25 36 Dislike other candidate 7 21 7 22 49% 57% 46% 61% 47 37 51 36

Wisconsin Obama Romney Voters Voters 64% 42% 30 35 6 21

There is a little room for movement in the race in all three states, but not much. About nine in 10 voters in each of the three states say their mind is made up. Views of the Candidates President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney as the candidate who cares: majorities of voters in each of these three states say President Obama cares about their needs and problems. Opinions of Mitt Romney on this are more mixed: in Colorado voters are divided, while more voters in Virginia and Wisconsin think Mitt Romney does not care about their needs and problems. Cares About Your Needs and Problems? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney CO VA WI CO VA WI Yes 52% 59% 57% 47% 44% 41% No 44 37 40 46 48 51 Overall views of the candidates reflect the state of the race: in Colorado, Romney is seen marginally favorably while Barack Obama is seen slightly unfavorably. In Wisconsin and Virginia, more than half view him favorably, while views of Romney are mixed.

Favorable Unfavorable

Views of the Candidates (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney CO VA WI CO VA WI 46% 50% 53% 47% 40% 41% 50 46 44 42 44 43

Wisconsin is the only one of the three states where a majority approves of President Obamas job performance so far. In Colorado, where he is trailing Romney, a majority disapproves. President Obamas Job Rating (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Approve 44% 47% 51% Disapprove 53 49 46 The Economy and Other Issues Voters in all three states and especially in Colorado - are more apt to say that the Presidents economic policies will hurt them financially rather than help them. Assessments of Mitt Romneys policies are a little more positive; in Virginia and Wisconsin about as many voters think his policies would help them financially as hurt them, while in Colorado slightly more think his policies would help them. Impact of Candidate Policies on Your Financial Situation (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney CO VA WI CO VA WI Help 22% 26% 22% 34% 28% 28% Hurt 43 39 35 30 30 31 No difference 33 34 41 32 37 37 Evaluations of Barack Obamas economic policies are mixed. More than half of voters in Virginia and Wisconsin think Barack Obamas economic policies are either currently improving the nations economy or will do so if given more time, while half of voters in Colorado think his policies will never improve the economy. Effect of Barack Obamas Policies on the Economy (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Improving it now 21% 24% 23% Will improve it if given more time 26 29 33 Will never improve it 51 46 42 Voters are not necessarily enthusiastic about Mitt Romneys past experience in the private sector. In Wisconsin and Virginia, more think Romneys business background was too focused on making profits instead of creating jobs. In Colorado, more voters think his background was the right kind of experience to create jobs.

Mitt Romneys Business Experience (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Right experience for creating jobs 48% 43% 43% Too focused on profits 42 47 48 National Vs. State Economies While voters are generally negative about the national economic outlook, they are somewhat more optimistic about the prospects for their own states. In all three places, more voters say their own states economy is getting better than say so about the national economy. Is the Economy Getting.? (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia National State National State 26% 33% 24% 30% 42 24 38 16 31 42 36 51

Better Worse The same

Wisconsin National State 25% 30% 36 29 38 40

The economy is the most important issue to likely voters in each of these battleground states, with health care a distant second. In Colorado voters give Mitt Romney a clear edge on handling the economy, while voters in Wisconsin and Virginia are more closely divided. Barack Obama has the edge on handling the issue of health care in all three states. Colorados voters think Mitt Romney would do a better job on national security; in Virginia and Wisconsin more think Barack Obama would do better. Who Would do a Better Job on? (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Wisconsin Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney 41% 51 45% 47 47% 46 47% 45 49% 42 49% 43 41% 50 48% 43 53% 39

The economy Health care National security Campaign Ads

Sizeable majorities of voters in these states say they have seen television ads for both candidates particularly in Colorado and Virginia and more voters say those ads have mostly attacked the other candidate. Television Campaign Ads (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Ads Mitt Romney CO VA WI CO VA 22% 28% 32% 22% 21% 58 52 41 58 57 8 9 18 9 10

Yes/explained stands Yes/attacked opponent Havent seen ads

Ads WI 20% 48 20

About eight in 10 say campaign ads will be of little importance in their vote for president, including more than six in 10 in each state who say television campaign ads will not be important at all. The Bush Tax Cuts Most voters in Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin support raising taxes on households earning more than $250,000 a year. Raise Income Taxes on $250K Households (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Support 56% 59% 66% Oppose 40 36 30 Releasing Personal Income Taxes About half in each state say candidates should release several years of tax returns. One in five thinks they should release only one or two years, while a quarter think they shouldnt release any of their tax returns. How Many Years of Tax Returns Should Presidential Candidates Release? (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Several years 48% 52% 52% One or two years 21 19 18 Don't release 26 23 26 Rating the Governors The governors of all three battleground states are enjoying wide support from likely voters. Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper receives the highest approval rating from his constituents, with 66%. After surviving a recent recall election, 52% of Wisconsins likely voters approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing, and 52% approve of Virginia Governor Bob McDonnells job performance. Rating of Governors (Among likely voters) Approve Disapprove John Hickenlooper (D) - Colorado 66% 18 Bob McDonnell (R) - Virginia 52% 29 Scott Walker (R) - Wisconsin 52% 44 Senate Races in Virginia and Wisconsin In Virginia, the race between two former governors of that state Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen is neck and neck, with Kaine getting 48% of the vote and Allen 46%.

2012 Virginia Senate Race (Among likely voters) Tim Kaine (D) 48% George Allen (R) 46 In Wisconsin, where the Republican nominee hasnt been decided yet, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin holds a strong twelve-point lead against one potential opponent State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald while she holds a slim three point edge over former Congressman Mark Neumann and a four point lead over businessman Eric Hovde. The race is tied in a match up against former Governor Tommy Thompson. 2012 Wisconsin Senate Race (Among likely voters) Tammy Baldwin (D) 51% Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 39 Tammy Baldwin (D) Mark Neumann (R) Tammy Baldwin (D) Eric Hovde (R) 48% 45 47% 43

Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% Tommy Thompson (R) 47 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac Universitys interviewing facility July 31-August 6, 2012. The number of likely voters interviewed in each state is 1,463 in Colorado, 1,412 in Virginia and 1,428 in Wisconsin. In all three states, phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the sample in each state could be plus or minus three percentage points in Colorado, Virginia, and in Wisconsin. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Poll

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin July 31-August 6, 2012 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI 45 49 51 50 45 45 1 1 4 5 4

Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE ** CO VA WI Mind made up 91% 90% 90% Might change 8 9 9 DK/NA 1 1 1 1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? ** AMONG OBAMA VOTERS ** CO VA WI 88% 90% 90% 11 9 10 1 1 -

Mind made up Might change DK/NA

1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? ** AMONG ROMNEY VOTERS ** CO VA WI 93% 90% 89% 6 8 8 1 1 2

Mind made up Might change DK/NA

2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Favorable 47% 40% 41% Unfavorable 42 44 43 Hvn't hrd enough 9 13 14 REFUSED 2 3 2

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI 46% 50% 53% 50 46 44 1 2 2 2 2 2

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

4a. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? ** AMONG OBAMA VOTERS ** CO VA WI Strongly favor 62% 68% 64% Like/Reservations 30 25 30 Dislike Romney 7 7 6 DK/NA 1 1 4b. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? ** AMONG ROMNEY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Strongly favor 51% 40% 42% Like/Reservations 27 36 35 Dislike Obama 21 22 21 DK/NA 2 2 1 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Allen or Kaine? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** VA 48% 46 6

Kain Allen SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA

5a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Tommy Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) Baldwin Thompson SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA WI 47% 47 1 5

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5b. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Eric Hovde the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Hovde? (Table includes leaners) ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** WI 47% 43 1 8

Baldwin Hovde SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA

5c. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Mark Neumann the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Neumann? (Table includes leaners) Baldwin Neumann SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA WI 48% 45 1 6

5d. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Jeff Fitzgerald the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Fitzgerald? (Table includes leaners) Baldwin Fitzgerald SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA WI 51% 39 9

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Hickenlooper(CO)/Bob McDonnell(VA)/Scott Walker(WI) is handling his job as Governor? Approve Disapprove DK/NA CO 66% 18 17 VA 52% 29 20 WI 52% 44 4

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove DK/NA CO 44% 53 3 VA 47% 49 4 WI 51% 46 3

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8. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI National security 4% 4% 3% The economy 48 49 47 Health care 19 19 24 The budget deficit 11 10 13 Taxes 4 6 3 Immigration 3 2 2 Something else 8 7 7 DK/NA 3 2 1 9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? More Less About the same DK/NA CO 35% 16 48 VA 32% 18 48 1 WI 32% 15 52 1

10. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse The same DK/NA CO 26% 42 31 1 VA 24% 38 36 2 WI 25% 36 38 1

11. Do you think (Colorado/Virginia/Wisconsin)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse The same DK/NA CO 33% 24 42 2 VA 30% 16 51 3 WI 30% 29 40 2

12. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA CO 52% 44 3 VA 59% 37 4 WI 57% 40 3

13. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA CO 47% 46 7 VA 44% 48 8 WI 41% 51 8

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14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI 41% 45% 47% 51 47 46 8 8 7

Obama Romney DK/NA

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney DK/NA CO 47% 45 8 VA 49% 42 9 WI 49% 43 8

16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney DK/NA CO 41% 50 8 VA 48% 43 10 WI 53% 39 8

17. If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference? Help Hurt No difference DK/NA CO 22% 43 33 2 VA 26% 39 34 1 WI 22% 35 41 2

18. If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference? Help Hurt No difference DK/NA CO 34% 30 32 4 VA 28% 30 37 5 WI 28% 31 37 4

19. From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business experience too focused on making profits? Right experience Focused on profits DK/NA CO 48% 42 10 VA 43% 47 10 WI 43% 48 9

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20. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will. ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI A)Improving now 21% 24% 23% B)Will improve 26 29 33 C)Will never improve 51 46 42 ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 1 1 1 21. Do you think presidential candidates should publicly release several years of tax returns, or is releasing only one or two years of tax returns necessary, or don't you think it is necessary for presidential candidates to release any of their tax returns? Several years One or two years Not necessary DK/NA CO 48% 21 26 4 VA 52% 19 23 6 WI 52% 18 26 3

22. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year? Support Oppose DK/NA CO 56% 40 4 VA 59% 36 5 WI 66% 30 4

23. How important will television campaign ads be to your vote for President this year, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all? CO Very important 5% Smwht important 11 Not so important 17 Not important at all 67 DK/NA VA 7% 13 17 62 1 WI 6% 12 22 60 -

24. Have you seen any commercials on television for Mitt Romney, or not? IF YES: Did most of Mitt Romney's television commercials spend more time explaining what Mitt Romney stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Barack Obama? Yes/Explained Yes/Attacked Obama No/Haven't seen DK/NA CO 22% 58 9 11 VA 21% 57 10 12 WI 20% 48 20 12

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25. Have you seen any commercials on television for Barack Obama, or not? IF YES: Did most of Barack Obama's television commercials spend more time explaining what Barack Obama stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Mitt Romney? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Yes/Explained 22% 28% 32% Yes/Attacked Romney 58 52 41 No/Haven't seen 8 9 18 DK/NA 12 11 9 PARTY IDENTIFICATION (Weighted) Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? Republican Democrat Independent Other DK/NA CO 32% 27 37 3 1 VA 23% 30 40 6 2 WI 27% 34 33 5 1

Sample Sizes (Unweighted) ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Unweighted Total 1463 1412 1428 MoE (+/-%) 3 pts 3 pts 3 pts

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