What Drives the Future?

Howard Charney
Cisco Expo KSA
5 December 2011

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 Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.

2%

1%

1750

1850

1950

2000

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Industrial Revolution

Age of Steam and Railways

Age of Steel

Age of Oil and the Automobile

Age of IT and the Internet

1771

1830

1875

1908

1971

2011

2030?

The Five Great Technology Revolutions of Modern Times

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WORK

LIVE

PLAY
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LEARN
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"one conceptual world view is replaced by another."

Thomas Kuhn,
University of California, Berkeley 1964
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The Transistor

The Telegraph

The Telephone

The Programmable Microprocessor

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Drakes Folly

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1010 108

106
104 102 1 10-2 10-4 10-6 Electromechanical 1900
From The Singularity Is Near, by Ray Kurzweil
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Relay Vacuum Tube 1940 1950

Transistor 1960 1970

Integrated Circuit 1980 1990 2000

1910

1920

1930

What, then, is the Singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed.
Ray Kurzweil

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Exponential Growth Ahead?

3%

2%

1%

1750

1850

1950

2000

2100

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More data was created during any 48hour period last year than by ALL of humanity during the past 30-thousand years.

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 where everything is suffused with intelligence and communications

and people everywhere have access to new capabilities

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Small photos courtesy of Microsoft

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RFID application tracks cattle, meets requirements of EU market

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Flexible, self-healing wireless mesh networks already monitor livestock, forests, and glaciers.
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India bought 100,000 of these tablets for US$48 from a firm in Canada and will resell them to Indian students for US$25
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4 GB Memory = 33,000 times the first Apple Mac

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Off-the-shelf components, powerful computers, excellent network capabilities

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Pervasive Communications
is the REALLY new paradigm

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Queens University Belfast is working on body-to-body wireless networks

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Next: wearable electronic patches flexible, ultra-thin, skin-like

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A dream come true: Michael Tangermann flips those levers by just thinking about them at the Technical University of Berlin.

Berlin Brain Computer Interface

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During the 21st Century we may experience 20,000 years of progress

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A 10 percent increase in high-speed Internet access increases economic growth by 1.3 percent

The World Bank Economic Impacts of Broadband, June 2009

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A U.S. study has shown that the increase in a local economy was 10 times the cost of installing broadband.
-- Importance of FTTP to Business Location, Strategiic Networks Group, 2007

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Over 20 years, a city of 5 million could experience

City Revenues

GDP Growth

Energy Efficiency

New jobs

375,000

+$15B

9.5%

+30%

Source: Connecting Cities: Achieving Sustainability Through Innovation, Nicola Villa and Wolfgang Wagener, Cisco IBSG
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Social Networking as a Powerful Economic Force

George Akerlof
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Robert J. Shiller
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2 of 5 young employees would accept a lowerpaying job with more social media flexibility & work mobility.
Cisco Connected World Technology Report
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Compound Productivity Growth 100%

If productivity grows 10% every year, it can double in 7 years

At 10%

75%

50%

25%

At 5% At 3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years
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0%

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Rapid Productivity Gains Can Raise the Standard of Living for People Around the World

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Charles Kettering

We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there.
Inventor of the spark plug, the automatic transmission, safety glass, quick-drying automobile paint, Freon, and many other innovations.
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Shokran jazeelan.

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