TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth

SOURCE
Michael P. Totten, Senior Advisor, CI Singapore Presentation at Asia Research Institute, NUS February 09, 2012

Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

2050 Growth Scenarios

Asia Will Account for 70% of Worlds Added Capital Stock between 2030-2050

Engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies

Asias march to prosperity will be led by 7 economies, 2 already developed and 6 fast growing middle income converging economies. Between 2010 and 2050, these 7 economies would account for nearly 90% of total GDP growth in Asia more than half of global GDP growth.

Asia will account for 55% of global output in 2050

Asias urban population will double by 2050

The worlds current youth cohort 1.2 billion young people ages 15 to 25 is the largest in human history

This youth bulge wraps itself around the center of the globe, with nearly 90 % of todays young people growing up in developing countries where barriers to opportunity remain high.

Avoiding & Averting Traps

Outcome fraught with multiple risks & challenges

Almost all countries face the overarching challenge of governance and institutional capacity. Large and increasing inequities within countries could undermine social cohesion and political stability. Individual countries risk falling into Middle Income Trap due to a host of domestic economic, social and political challenges. Rising disparities across countries and sub-regions could destabilize the region and halt its growth momentum. Intense competition for finite natural resources (energy, water and fertile land) unleashed by this growth, as the newly affluent Asians aspire to higher standards of living. Climate Destabilization with increased natural disaster), as well as associated water shortages, could threaten agricultural production, coastal populations and major urban areas.

Projection Asia Energy Supply & Demand

Asia will lead global energy demand

And energy-related CO2 emissions

GT

Get used to riding Perfect Storms

Your Future Business as Usual

Riding perfect storms for people, profit & planet

Why success always starts with failure

Riding the Perfect Storm meets Only the Paranoid Survive

Unprecedented Challenges of Historical & Global Magnitude

Planetary Boundaries TODAY Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

Rockstrm, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, . Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Srlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Planetary Boundaries 2150 Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity CLIMATE
CHANGE

Rockstrm, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, . Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Srlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Species extinction by humans 1000x natural background rate

Species extinction

Recommendations:

Natural capital and poverty reduction

Indonesia Ecosystem services dependency Ecosystem services as a % of classical GDP
79% 25% 84% 47% 53% 75% 11%

India 352 million

16%

Brazil 20 million
10% 90%

99 million
21%

Ecosystem services as a % of GDP of the Poor

89%

Ecosystem services
Source: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB 09.02.2012
26

US$ 6.6 trillion

Estimated annual environmental costs from global human activity equating to 11% of global GDP in 2008

US$ 2.2 trillion

Cost of environmental damage caused by the worlds 3,000 largest publicly-listed companies in 2008.

>50%
The proportion of company earnings that could be at risk from environmental costs in an equity portfolio weighted according to the MSCI All Country World Index.

Universal Ownership: Why environmental externalities matter to institutional investors, Trucost Plc, commissioned by UN-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and UNEP Finance Initiative, 2011, www.trucost.com

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

CLOSING THE LOOP Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

Fishing down the Food Web

55 million years since oceans as acidic business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web

Oceans Acidifying

Global Circulation Models (GCM)

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

More frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts

More frequent, severe, and prolonged wildfires

More frequent, severe, and prolonged floods

Multiple Cascading Social-Ecological Crises

Carl Folke, A sa Jansson, Johan Rockstrom, Per Olsson, Stephen R. Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Crepin, Gretchen Daily, Kjell Danell, Jonas Ebbesson, Thomas Elmqvist, Victor Galaz, Fredrik Moberg, Mans Nilsson, Henrik O sterblom, Elinor Ostrom, A sa Persson, Garry Peterson, Stephen Polasky, Will Steffen, Brian Walker, Frances Westley, Reconnecting to the Biosphere, AMBIO (2011) 40:719738, DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Whats Left?

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year

1950 www.armsflow.org/

2005

Unending Resource Wars & Conflicts

MMN, Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the USA, American EconomicsReview, 2011; Epstein et al, New York Academy of Sciences, 2010

LINFEN, CHINA
the most polluted city on earth. Where, if one puts laundry out to dry, it will turn black before finishing drying. Spending one day in Linfen is equivalent to smoking 3 packs of cigarettes

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Past planetary mass extinctions triggered by high CO2 >550ppm

Where we will be by 2100
900ppm

Climate Catastrophes

Parts per Million CO2

TODAY: 387PPM

Top 15 nation populations exposed to sea level rise today & 2070

Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (pop)

Ranked in terms of POPULATION exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and showing present-day exposure

Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (assets)

Ranked in terms of ASSETS exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and showing present-day exposure

MIT Temperature Study

10

Danger

>0%

2009 MIT Study: 95% chance that Businessas-usual temperature increase will exceed 3.5C in 2095; and a 50% chance temperature will exceed 5C!

Negative Tipping Points

Source: Timothy M. Lenton , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, www.pnas.org/.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman

A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Social Cost of Carbon

Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon, 2011, Stockholm Environment Institute & Tufts Univ., www.e3network.org

Target CO2:

< 350 ppm

To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed

James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

<350 ppm is Possible, But

Essential Requirements 1. Quick Coal Phase-Out Necessary
All coal emissions halted in 20 years

2. No Unconventional Fossil Fuels

Tar sands, Oil shale, Methane hydrates

3. Dont Pursue Last Drops of Oil

Polar regions, Deep ocean, Pristine land
James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

Where the world needs to go:

energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

>$/GDP/cap

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

The path towards sustainable consumption:

Responding to increasing demand without inflating ecological footprints

SwitchAsia, Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption in Asia, Consumer Book No. 3, citing WWF 2006,

Can WE Avert Multiple Catastrophes, Avoid Irreversible Consequences, and Make the Shift to Healthy, Sustainable Economies?

Ken Caldeira

GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering

GENETICS

AUTOROBOTICS

INFORMATICS

NANOTECH

CLIMATE in 4 Bumper Stickers

Your grandchildrens lives are important We need to buy insurance for the planet Climate damages are too valuable to have prices

Some costs are better than others

Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?

Your grandchildrens lives are important Using the right Discount Rate
Climate Change is a long-term problem over many centuries, with a non-zero probability of catastrophic , irreversible events and credible worst cases involving the end of much of human and other life on the planet.

Discount rates based on market interest rates ,or rate of return on financial investments, are more appropriate for shorter term investments with an average pattern of market risks.
Investments in climate protection, however, bear a closer resemblance to insurance, because it is a risk-reducing investment.
Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?

Climate damages are too valuable to have prices

Among the most important impacts of unchecked climate change are increased losses of human lives. Many cost-benefit analyses assign an income-based value of a life. But any price for lives, high or low, creates the misleading impression that lives can be traded for other things of comparable value. A policy that kills 100 people now in order to save 300 other lives 10 years from now is not equally successful: there is no way to compensate the 100 people who paid the initial cost. As Kant put it centuries ago, some things have a price, or relative worth, while other things have a dignity, or inner worth.
Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?

Some costs are better than others

While the benefits of climate protection involve the priceless values of human life, nature, and the future, the costs consist of producing and buying goods and services, i.e., things that have prices. In the SHORT run, economic theories of market equilibrium often deny existence of costless or negative-cost opportunities for emissions reductions; In the MEDIUM term, the same theories overlook the employment and other benefits that result from climate policies;

In the LONG term, the most important effect is the pace of innovation in energy technologies, another subject on which conventional economics has little to offer.
Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?

We need to buy insurance for the planet

The probability of a residential fire is less than half a percent, yet mortgages require fire insurance.
The worst climate catastrophe is inescapably unknowable but current knowledge indicates the 99th percentile of climate sensitivity parameters could be 10C or higher. such high temperatures have not been seen for hundreds of millions of yearsit would effectively destroy planet Earth as we know it. At a minimum this would trigger mass species extinctions and biosphere ecosystem disintegration matching or exceeding the immense planetary die-offs associated with a handful of such previous geoclimate mega-catastrophes in Earths history.

Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?, citing Martin Weitzman

Insurance is the response to the desire to avoid or control worse-case scenarios

Probability of house burning down? Less than 1% YET >80% homeowners buy hazard insurance Probability of catastrophic climate disasters? Over 50% YET >Half of USA essentially says cannot afford climate insurance

While non-linear complex adaptive systems pervade existence, humans have a strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, and planning is predictable and compartmentalized into silos. Normal distributions are assumed, fat-tail futures are ignored.

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitiveedge.com/

David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/

David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitiveedge.com/

http://www.envirobase.info/

Governance / values Rights / duties Will networks

ETHICAL CAPITAL

Arts Sciences Knowledge networks

EPISTEMIC CAPITAL

Finance Competence Power networks

PRACTICAL CAPITAL

Collective Intelligence
CULTURAL CAPITAL BIOPHYSICAL CAPITAL

Messages Medias Documentary networks

SOCIAL CAPITAL

Equipment / technology Health / environment Bodily networks

Trust Social roles Personal networks

Pierre Levy, 2008, Beyond Semantic Web, Semantic Space, WKD Conference

Getting to Yes!! Riding the Perfect Storm with triple strength

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

SOURCE

Summary Points
The Role of Finance Related to Climate Security and Energy Security

Low Hanging Fruit that keeps growing back now offer a multi-trillion dollar global pool of savings for companies and institutions, with high ROIs, and myriad ancillary values and co-benefits beyond climate/energy security Electric, Gas & Water Utilities incented to deliver leastcost, least-risk utility services to the point of use could be source of tens of trillions of dollars of finance Sourcing standards-based, multiple-benefits conservation carbon offsets (CCB) is a key part of a cost & riskminimizing portfolio for addressing multiple securities (climate, energy, economic, ecosystem services, conflicts)

Triple S Portfolio

Adopting Cost & Risk-Resilient Portfolio

Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become climate positive and revenue positive
Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success Ambitious, Continuous Efficiency Gains Smart Green Power Protecting Ecosystem Services

Promoting Triple S Portfolio through Innovative Policies

1)SHRINKING - CONTINUOUS EFFICIENCY
Adopt decoupling+ and comprehensive IRP for delivering utility services to the point of use at least cost & risk, fully including end-use efficiency improvements and onsite/distributed generation

2)SHIFTING GREEN/SMART ENERGY

Select only verifiable green power/fuels that are climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

3)SOURCING - ECOSYSTEM OFFSETS

Add standards-based (CCB) carbon mitigation
options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits (climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and promotion of community sustainable development)

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Roles and responsibilities of actors in driving sustainable consumption

WBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11

sustainable consumption

WBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11

IBM ODriscoll

NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf

NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf

via Emergent Collaboration Networks

Portfolio Part 1 SHRINKING

ecological footprints
(emissions, pollutants, waste, water, energy, land, & capital) through aggressive, ambitious and continuous efficiency gains

$1.2 billion savings over 5 years on energy, water & chemical costs. 670% ROI
So the financial incentive is there, but as CEO Pasquale Pistorio stressed, its not enough.
If the chief executive is not totally committed, it wont succeed, Pasquale Pistorio, CEO, STMicro, 1987-2005

STMicro Carbon Positive & Revenue Positive

SHRINK: Reduce total emissions of CO2 due to our energy consumption (tons of CO2 per production unit) by 5% per year: SHIFT: Adopt whenever possible renewable energy sources of wind, hydroelectric, geothermic, photovoltaic, and thermal solar. SOURCE: Compensate the remaining direct CO2 emissions through reforestation or other carbon sequestration methods, to reach CO2 direct emissions neutrality by 2015.
Between 1998-2010 STMicro planted 10 million trees in reforestation programs in Morocco, Australia, USA, France and Italy (9,000 ha total). 179,000 tons of CO2 sequestered.

Source: STMicroelectronics, Sustainability Report 2010, Our culture of Sustainable Excellence in Practice, www.st.com/internet/com/CORPORATE_RESOURCES/FINANCIAL/FINANCIAL_REPORT/ST_2010_sustainability_report.pdf

CO2 reductions at negative cost

Dow slashed energy intensity by ~40% between 1990-2005. $9.4 billion savings between 1994-2010 940% ROI

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) 6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is 55-80 billion per year between 20102020 for developing countries and 4050 billion for developed countries,

or about half the 215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Rob Walton, Chairman, Walmart

Mike Duke CEO, Walmart

Our License to Grow is threatened

2004 in the Bulls eye

60,000 suppliers in 70 countries

100,000 product lines

Walmarts World

1.7 million associates

138 million customers every week

8,500-plus stores and clubs

70% Walmart Imports from China 2008 25% from 14 other nations ( )

Most of Walmarts impact & cost is imbedded in products

Water Packaging

Indirect Impact = 92%

Agriculture

Marine

Factories

On Climate Change Action

We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions. This used to be controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming.

We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce GHG as quickly as it can.

Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers, and reduce dependence on oil.

Lee Scott, CEO

21st Century Leadership
Presentation Nov. 24, 2005

On Climate Change Action

We are committed to aggressively investing $500 million annually in technologies and innovation to do the following:
Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and Distribution Center base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years.
Designing and opening prototype stores 25-30 % more efficient and 30% fewer GHG emissions within the next 4 years. Increasing fleet efficiency 25% in 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years.

Sharing all learning in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers)

On Climate Change Action We are committed to the following:

Assisting in the design and support of a green company program in China, where Walmart would show preference to those suppliers and their factories involved in such a program. Initiating a program in the U.S. that shows preference to suppliers who set their own goals and aggressively reduce their own emissions. Lee Scott, thenpresident and CEO of Walmart , speaking to 1000 Suppliers in China, October 2008

On Climate Change Action

You cant just keep doing what works one time. Everything around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change. Sam Walton, founder

These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide. We know that these commitments wont even maintain our fast growing companys overall emissions at current levels.
2010 Sustainability report 2011 Sustainability report

There is more to do, we are committed to doing our part.

Lee Scott, CEO

21st Century Leadership
Presentation Nov. 24, 2005

In 2006, Walmart set a goal of reducing energy consumption & CO2 emissions in the USA by selling 100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) by the end of 2007. Walmart exceeded that goal by selling 137 million.

By the end of 2010, Walmart had sold more than 460 million CFLs.

New Goal to Supersede CFLs with LEDs

You cant just keep doing what works one time. Everything around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change. Sam Walton, founder

lightemitting diodes

LED

LED lighting could displace 100s GWs

Augmenting natural daylighting with ultra-efficient LEDs offer capital and operating savings, as well as dramatic reductions in Mercury emissions

Walmarts Biggest Competitor High Oil & Utility Prices

Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy changes that will create incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency and low or no GHG sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to integrating these sources into the power grid.

Cost of new delivered electricity (US/kWh)

CCS

US current average

nuclear

coal

CC gas wind farm

CC ind cogen

end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

1/kWh

93 kg

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services

47

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

US$26.3 trillion
global cumulative electric utility infrastructure investment needed between 2007 and 2030.

12.7 trillion kWh

Additional generation by 2030
Source: IEA, in 2007 US$; GEF & Global Smart Energy. 2008. The Electricity Economy, http://www.globalenvironmentfund.com/data/uploads/The%20Electricity%20Economy.pdf

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
USA minus CA & NY 165 GW Coal Power Plants

Per Capital Electricity Consumption

New York

[EPPs]

California Californians have net savings of $1,000 per family

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Now use 1/2 global power 30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI

Motor Market Transformation Path to Multi- Trillion Dollar Savings

Demand Facts
Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China over 7 trillion kWh per year. Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 /kWh.

Efficiency Outcomes
2 trillion kWh per year savings equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide. $240 billion savings per decade. $200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide

Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)

More Retail Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

Walmart is on the path to tripling its truck fleet efficiency. Over the past 2 years Walmart replaced ~2/3rd of their fleet with more efficient tractors.

Achieved 65% reduction in fuel per ton km over past 5 years.

In 2010, Walmart delivered 57 million more cases, while driving 79 million fewer km.

Avoiding ~40,000 t/CO2 -- equivalent to taking 7,600 U.S. cars off the road.
Source; Building the Next Generation WalmartResponsibility, 2011 Global Responsibility report

2.7 km/l 529 million liters [6.4 mpg 140 million gal]

121,000 hectares

Land required if Wal-Mart Class 8 large truck fleet Switched from Fossil Diesel to BioDiesel from Oil Palm Plantations

40,000 hectares
When the truck fleet achieves triple fuel efficiency

2.7 km/l 529 million liters

5.5 km/l 265 million liters

2004

2011

8 km/l 176 million liters

Land- & Water-Conserving, Oil-Reducing, Emission-Preventing and Money Saving

Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency

$70 $60
per barrel cost

$50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $-

$65

$15

biodiesel

truck efficiency

HOW ENERGY EFFICIENT ARE YOUR BUILDINGs? Typical Energy usage Commercial Building
Tropical Climate (Cooling All Year Round)
Others Equipment 4% 8% Lift/Escalator 5%

Lighting 18%

Space Cooling 60%

Ventilation 5%

Data is for buildings in hot and humid climate like Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, etc

ASHRAE--Chiller Plant Efficiency

New Technology All-Variable Speed Chiller Plants High-efficiency Conventional Older Chiller Optimized Code Based Plants Chiller Plants Chiller Plants Chiller Plants with Correctable Design or Operational Problems

EXCELLENT

GOOD

FAIR

NEEDS IMPROVEMENT

kW/ton 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 C.O.P. (7.0) (5.9) (5.0) (4.4) (3.9) (3.5) (3.2) (2.9)
AVERAGE ANNUAL CHILLER PLANT EFFICIENCY IN KW/TON (C.O.P.)
(Input energy includes chillers, condenser pumps, tower fans and chilled water pumping) Based on electrically driven centrifugal chiller plants in comfort conditioning applications with 42F (5.6C) nominal chilled water supply temperature and open cooling towers sized for 85F (29.4C) maximum entering condenser water temperature and 20% excess capacity. Local Climate adjustment for North American climates is +/- 0.05 kW/ton

0.59 typical Trane Guaranty Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

Typical Chiller Plant -- Needs Improvement (1.2 kW per ton)

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

High Performance Chiller Plant (0.56 kW/t)

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

HOW? Bigger pipes, 45 angles, Smaller chillers

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

Financial Benefits
Before
Cooling TonHr/Week System kWH/Week kWh/TonH Energy Savings in % Energy Savings in kWH / Year Energy Savings in $/Year @ $0.20/KWH Water usage per year (M3) Water Charge per year (New Water @ $1.0/M3) Estimated Total $ Savings per Year Annual Reduction in Carbon Emission per year (Tones)

After 80,000 47,200 0.59 68.95% 5,449,600 $1,089,920

80,000 152,000 1.90

0 $34,682 $1,055,238 2,724,800

34,682

ROI = 29%. Energy Savings over 15 years = S$15M

Daily System Report August 2009 Real time monitoring with calibrated smart sensors

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

Simple Guide to retrofit success

1. Ask for 0.60 kW/RT or better for chiller plant. 2. Ask for performance guarantee backed by clear financial penalties in event of performance shortfall. 3. Ask for accurate Measurement & Verification system of at least +-5% accuracy in accordance to international standards of ARI-550 & ASHRAE guides 14P & 22. 4. Ask for online internet access to monitor the plant performance.

5. Ask for track record.

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
IF Cooling Load in kW per ton:
Typical: ~1.2 kW/ton or 114% more Best: ~0.56 kW/ton

Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of aircon space Average over-sizing is 2x Wasted capital stock = 0.025 x 1m m2 x $4k = US$100

Cost of overbuilding & poor efficiency level

million

Avg efficiency existing aircon 1.2 kW/t Excess aircon energy (1.2 0.56), & cost: 0.025 x 1m m2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh = US$17 million/yr

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Cooling Load in kW per ton?
Code: ~0.85 kW/ton or 50% more Best: ~0.56 kW/ton

Cost of overbuilding & Code efficiency level

Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of air-conditioned space Above average oversizing is 1.5x Wasted capital stock = 0.025*50% x 1m m2 x $4k = US$50 million

Code efficiency existing aircon 0.85 kW/t Excess aircon energy (0.85 0.56), & cost: 0.0125 x 1mm2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh= US$12.5 million/yr

Portfolio Part 2 SHIFTING

To green power and fuel options that are both climate & biodiversity positive, and have the smallest combined ecological impacts

Annual global energy consumption by humans Oil Gas Coal ANNUAL Wind Hydro

SOLAR PHOTONS ACCRUED IN A MONTH EXCEED THE EARTHS FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES

Uranium

ANNUAL Solar Energy

Photosynthesis
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.

Attributes of Green Energy Services

Dozen Desirable Criteria
1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? 2. Safe through the entire life cycle? 3. Clean through the entire lifespan? 4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility? 5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? 6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity? 7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality? 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time? 10. Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities? 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities & amplifying positive externalities scalable production possibilities? 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off radar of terrorists or military planners?

A Defensible Green Energy Criteria Scoring

Promote
CHP + biowastes

Uninteresting military target Robust experience curves Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Fails gracefully, not catastro Environmentally benign Ecologically sustainable

Resilient & flexible Secure Clean

Safe Economically Affordable

Efficiency

BIPV

PV

Wind

CSP

CHP

Biowaste Geopower thermal

Nat gas

BioOil fuels imports

Coal CCS

Coal no CCS

Coal to liquids

Tar sand

Oil shale

nuclear

SUN FUSION PHOTONS

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving economic activity

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients 1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream

SOLAR REFLECTORS
Over 4000 Walmart stores with white roofs, and standard practice since 1990 Reflects away 80% of solar heat

World of Solar Reflecting Cities

$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction

100 m2

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

Onshore Wind Trillion$

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Solar-battery
Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption.
Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Myth 1: PV use more energy to make than they produce over their lifetime
For cells in production now the energy payback is between 6 months and 5 years!

Myth 2: We do not have Enough Raw Materials

Si - 2nd most abundant element in Earths crust

The amorphous silicon cells manufactured from one ton of sand could produce as much electricity as burning 500,000 tons of coal

Myth 3: Solar Doesnt Create Many Jobs

Jobs created with every million dollars spent on:
oil and gas exploration: 1.5 on coal mining: 4.4 on producing solar water heaters: 14 on photovoltaic panels: 17

Myth 3: Solar requires too much land area

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in dual-uses. [ Also requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.]

Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields

90% of Americas current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the brownfields the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nations cities.
Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

The Global market for solar cells, Washington Post, December 16, 2011, Sources: Photon International, Earth Policy Institute, Wiley Rein.

 The price of solar panels fell steadily for 40 years. Since January 2008 German solar modules prices dropped from 3 to 1 per peak watt (Wp). During that same time production capacity grew 50% per annum. China market share rose from 8% in 2008 to over 55% by end of 2010. Module prices have dropped to US$1.21.5/Wp (crystalline).

China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Replaced Economic Measure NPV ($) BCR Beijing +$18,586 2.33 Shanghai +$14,237 2.14

Polished Stone

PBP (yrs)
NPV ($) BCR

1
+$15,373 1.89

1
+$11,024 1.70

Aluminum
SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland

PBP (yrs)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines

Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.

120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China

Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all personal motorized transportation in China.

$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh twice as expensive as solar PV electricity

Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA

Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide

The African market for off-grid lighting products is projected to achieve 40 to 50 % annual sales growth, with 5-6 million African households owning quality portable lights (primarily solar) by 2015. Lighting Africa contributed to this market acceleration: in 2010 alone, the sales of solar portable lanterns that have passed Lighting Africas quality tests grew by 70% in Africa. This resulted in more than 672,000 people on the continent with cleaner, safer, reliable lighting and improved energy access.

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Portfolio Part 3 SOURCING OFFSETS

remaining footprints by prevention of threatened tropical forests (REDD+) and other intact ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, peat lands, grass lands) through standards-based conservation carbon offsets

Protecting Critical Wilderness to Offset Operation Footprints

In 2005, Wal-Mart adopted the goal to permanently offset the land footprint of all their USA stores and distribution centers by protecting critical wildlife habitat in the USA. Walmarts $35 million donation over 10 years enables purchasing enough land to account for its stores current land-use, as well as the companys development throughout the 10-year period -roughly 60,000 hectares.

High Quality

Multi-Benefit

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

$4 million to protect the Tayna and Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation area in Peru. Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of CO2 from being released into the atmosphere. Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity Carbon Standards.

Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

Billion tons CO2

25 20 15 10 5 0 Fossil fuel emissions

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

14 million hectares burned each year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year. More emissions than world transport system of cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships

GHG levels

Tropical land use

Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

Billion tons CO2

25 20 15 10 5 0 Fossil fuel emissions

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving better-off nations billions of dollars.

GHG levels

Tropical land use

Geological storage (CCS) vs Ecological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost $ per ton CO2

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

$50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $- 0 CCS REDD

~$100 billion ~3 per kWh

Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)

~$18 billion ~0.5 per kWh

Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions

$7.50 per ton CO2 1/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss

A A win-win-win win-win-win outcome outcome

Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO PARTNERS

SOURCE

Amory Lovins, select publications 1976 to 2012

Convergences & Emergences

Vehicle-to-Grid

Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet

hwww.techonomy.com/#te10

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_EKZvb7gc8

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTKGP0O5f5Y&feature=related

Buildings

Commercial building energy efficiency supply curve by end use, 2050

Energy savings for integrative design cases (new residential)

Zero Emissions Home and Electric Car

Shannon Smith, In Germany, house powers car, SmartPlanet, December 30, 2011, www.smartplanet.com/

Beddington Zero Energy Design, UK

Cradle-to-Cradle McDonough Flow House, New Orleans

http://www.greenpacks.org/2009/07/16 /william-mcdonough-partners-completethe-cradle-to-cradle-flow-house/

Venlo, NL First Cradle-to-Cradle region in the World

http://sustainablecities.dk/en/city-projects/cases/venlo-first-cradle-to-cradle-region-in-the-world

Utilities

2050 installed capacity by case

Technology capital cost* projections, 2010-2050

*Renewable costs exclude tax credits & similar subsidies; nonrenewable costs implicitly include many complex subsidies.

U.S. wind & solar PV capital cost trends 1976-2010

Near-term cost reductions for ground-mounted PV System

Present value costs of the U.S. electricity system 2010-2060

Historic & projected CO2 emissions from the U.S. electricity sector, 1990-2050

Industry

Transport

Lightweight autos neednt cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleet shows little or no correlation between lighter weight and higher prices.

Manufacturers Suggested Retail Price

Traffic fatalities, vehicle weight changes, and vehicle size based on 1999 U.S. fleet on the road

Crash-safety risk with lightweight materials in automotive applications is only perceived, not supported by evidence. Lighter autos are actually safer than heavier ones the same size.

Comparison of carbon fiber vs. steel manufacturing costs

Automotive manufacturing costs can be cut by 80% with carbon fiber-based autos vs. steelbased ones due to greatly reduced tooling and simpler assembly and joining. However, such cost savings are currently overshadowed with carbon fiber material prices ~$16/lb.

U.S. motor gasoline consumption with & without policy change and accelerated retooling, 2010-2050

Cost reduction potential of powertrains

Cumulative volume-based learning curves for battery packs and fuel cell systems

U.S. installed wind & solar power capacities and projections, 1990-2050

Hourly operability in a high-penetration renewables scenario

Hourly operability on a microgrid

Variable renewable output (hourly)

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients The Power in the Photon Bit stream

Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year

Market share of different PV technologies 1999-2010

BIPV (mccabe)

FINANCING

Innovative Solar Financing Options Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

Catalyzing solar smart poly-microgrids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.

Sierpinski Pyramid Fractal Market Model

Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can be reproducible at any magnification or reduction.

Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions

When two nanowires lay crisscrossed light will generate plasmon waves at the place where the two nanowires meet, creating a hot spot. The beauty is that the hot spots exist only when the nanowires touch, not after they have fused. The welding stops itself. It's self-limiting. This ability to heat with precision greatly increases the control, speed and energy efficiency of nanoscale welding.
Erik C. Garnett, Wenshan Cai, Judy J. Cha, Fakhruddin Mahmood, Stephen T. Connor, M. Greyson Christoforo, Yi Cui, Michael D. McGehee & Mark L. Brongersma, Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions, Nature Materials, February 05, 2012

Nanoshell whispering galleries improve thin solar panels

Using spherical nanoshell structures achieved absorption comparable to micron-thick layers with 50-nmthick shells, reducing the film deposition time necessary to achieve strong absorption from hours to minutes.
Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012

Quantum-dot solar PV cells

Quantum dot solar cells use quantum dots as the photovoltaic material, as opposed to bulk materials such as silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) or Cadmium Telluride (CdTe). Quantum dots have bandgaps that are tunable across a wide range of energy levels by changing the quantum dot size, in contrast to bulk materials where the bandgap is fixed by the choice of material composition. This property makes quantum dots attractive for multi-junction solar cells, where a variety of different energy levels are used to extract more power from the solar spectrum.

Collodial-quantum-dot PVs using atomic-ligand passivation

16 of the inorganic CQD devices

Quantum dots are nanoscale semiconductors that capture light and convert it into an energy source. The dots can be sprayed on to flexible surfaces, including plastics. Enables production of solar cells less expensive and more durable than the more widely-known silicon-based version.

Solar cell nanodomes and plasmonics

Titania within the solar cell is imprinted into a honeycomb pattern by the silicon nanodomes like a waffle imprinted by the iron. A thin layer of batter is spread on a transparent, electrically conductive base. This batter is mostly titania, a semi-porous metal that is also transparent to light. Next, they use their nano waffle iron to imprint the dimples into the batter. Then layer on some butter a light-sensitive dye which oozes into the dimples and pores of the waffle. Lastly, some syrup is added a layer of silver, which hardens almost immediately. When all those nanodimples fill up, the result is a pattern of nanodomes on the light-ward side of the silver. The silver acts as a mirror, scattering unabsorbed light back into the dye for another shot at collection, plus, the light interacts with the silver nanodomes to produce plasmonic effects.

Nanoshell whispering galleries Optical simulations of Silicon spherical nanoshells

Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012

Graphene

Graphene is an allotrope of carbon, whose structure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of sp2bonded carbon atoms that are densely packed in an atom-scale honeycomb crystal lattice.

Solar cell nano cones

The n-type nanoncones are made of zinc oxide and serve as the junction framework and the electron conductor. The p-type matrix is made of polycrystalline cadmium telluride and serves as the primary photon absorber medium and hole conductor.

Key features of the solar material include its unique electric field distribution that achieves efficient charge transport; the synthesis of nanocones using inexpensive proprietary methods; and the minimization of defects and voids in semiconductors. Because of efficient charge transport, the new solar cell can tolerate defective materials and reduce cost in fabricating next-generation solar cells.

Cerium Solar reactor (Haile caltech)

Nano pillar solar cell arrays

Solar roll 50 sq meters(Ascent)

Urban Solar Canopies

Solar Ivy

Tensile Solar Structures

Onshore Wind Trillion$

Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption.
Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Solar-battery
Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

Figures of Merit
Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint 6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%

Wind Farm Royalties Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of worlds largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Wind Royalties Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue
non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

Govt. subsidy Wind profits

windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm govt. subsidy windpower royalty farm commodity revenues $0 $200 $50

non-wind farm $60 $0 $64

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing freeranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts

Grasslands of the World

Source: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html

Offshore Wind Trillion$

China will construct 5 GW of offshore wind projects by 2015 and 30 GW by 2030.

China Qingdao 5 MW wind turbine

Vesta 7 MW wind turbine

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuru dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience 50: 76675,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Reservoir Area (km2) Generating Capacity (MW)

DAM

km2/ MW

Emissions: Hydro (MtCO2eq/yr)

Emissions: CC Gas (MtCO2eq/yr)

Emissions Ratio Hydro/Gas

Tucuru
CuruUna Balbina

24330

4240

8.60

2.22

72

40

0.15

0.02

7.5

3150

250

13

6.91

0.12

58

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies

Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies

Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds

90 80 70 60

Billion $ 2008 constant $85

2

Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 2009)

vs.

50 40

Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009)

30 20 10 0

$4.2
1

PV

NUCLEAR

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

A new water disinfector for the developing worlds poor

DESIGN CRITERIA Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3) Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water Reliable, Mature components Can treat unpressurized water Rapid throughput: 12 seconds Low maintenance: 4x per year No overdose risk Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Globalwater%202008.pdf

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl device

WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

WaterHealth International

Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas.

And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Mobility Services & Acccess

Amount of space required to transport the same number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle. Muenster Planning Office, August 2001