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March 2012

CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

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CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

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CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micromacro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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Economy

CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Economy analysis
Fiscal deficit continues to remain a constraint Budget 2012-13 did not enjoy the positive growth environment of the budget. Although inflation has come down a bit, the overall macroeconomic situation remains quite challenging on domestic as well as global fronts. Persistently high inflation in the last few years constrains the monetary policy from being aggressive in rate cuts to support growth. The sharp slippage in fiscal and revenue deficits in 2011-12 means that fiscal policy could no longer assist economic growth. The budget therefore, was expected to do little to boost the short term growth prospects. On the contrary, it was expected to take steps to set the fiscal house in order. This would have entailed reduction in deficit and improving the quality of expenditure - reduce consumption expenditure and increase investment expenditure. Has it been able to do so? The budget does attempt to tilt the balance towards investment: Capital expenditure is budgeted to grow at 30.7 per cent as against 10.6 per cent growth in revenue expenditure. Also, the proposed steps to improve access to funding and tax concessions will boost investments in the infrastructure sector and help address supply side constraints. These are steps in the right direction. The commitment to cap subsidies within 2 per cent of GDP is good in intent. The intent to fully fund the food subsidy but limit the fertiliser and fuel subsidy bill to create fiscal space for investment spending is a right move. The fiscal deficit target at 5.1 per cent for 2012-13 is lower than 5.9 per cent achieved in the current year. But the risks of slippage remain high. CRISIL believes that achieving the fiscal deficit target is difficult as 7.6 per cent GDP growth assumption and subsidy reduction targets are ambitious. We have retained our pre-budget projection of 7 per cent GDP growth in 2012-13. Lower growth means lower tax collections. The budget tries to offset this by raising service tax and excise duties, but the bold expenditure reforms like de-regulation of petroleum prices are missing. While the budget implicitly assumes increases in regulated fuel prices, reforms of subsidy regime would be credible only these reforms are undertaken in a transparent manner. The projected higher borrowings of the government will limit the reduction in interest rates and decrease private investment if liquidity remains tight. We expect 6.2 per cent WPI-based inflation in 2012-13. The excise duty increases and likely fuel price hikes create some upside for inflation. This together with the high borrowings of the government will keep the 10-year bond yields at 7.5-7.8 per cent by March 2013.

Industry

CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Overall sectoral impact

Industry Airport infrastructure
Neutral impact on airport infrastructure The proposal to allow full exemption from customs duty and countervailing duty for aircraft spares, tyres and testing equipment is expected to bring down the costs of Indian maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) service providers. Airport infrastructure companies are likely to benefit marginally from the reduction in the rate of withholding tax on interest payments on ECBs from 20 per cent to 5 per cent, as it will bring down the cost of ECBs.

Effect Neutral

Auto components & tyres

No impact on auto components as well as tyres industries

Neutral

Auto component and tyre manufacturers are expected to fully pass on the increase in basic excise duty. Further, a reduction in the excise duty on replacement batteries for electric vehicles from 10 per cent to 6 per cent, and decrease in the customs duties for specified parts of hybrid vehicles will have no major positive impact on demand for auto components, given the low population of eco-friendly vehicles in India.

Automobiles
Negative for cars, neutral for other segments

Negative

The increase in the excise duty on cars, commercial vehicles and two wheelers will be passed on to consumers. Excise hikes for small cars and two wheelers will be partially offset by the increase in individual income-tax slabs. However, demand for sedans and luxury cars will be hit, as excise duties were hiked to 27 per cent from 22 per cent, while basic customs duty for completely built units of such cars was increased to to 75 per cent from 60 per cent. Hike in service tax to 12 per cent from 10 per cent will not hit transporters much, as they already enjoy a 75 per cent abatement. The shift to ad valorem tax of 3 per cent on body-building of commercial vehicles from a flat Rs 10,000 earlier will increase transporters costs only marginally. Continued interest subvention on crop loans, an additional subvention up to 3 per cent for prompt loan payments and a 21 per cent increase in agricultural credit will aid tractor sales.

Banking
Recapitalisation to benefit public sector banks

Neutral

In 2012-13, public sector banks (PSBs) are likely to receive a major portion of the Rs 159 billion allocated for recapitalisation of government financial institutions. Additionally, a financial holding company is proposed to be set up to raise funds for PSBs, which is a positive given the significant amount of capital required by them under Basel III norms. As per the Union Budget 2012-13, Rs 100 billion will be allotted to NABARD for refinancing of regional rural banks (RRBs). We believe this is a positive step towards the goal of financial inclusion. Also, interest rate subvention of 1 per cent on home loans up to Rs 1.5 million has been extended for another year. On the flip side, the RBIs ability to cut interest rates would be impeded by the high fiscal deficit. This could adversely impact investments and credit growth in 2012-13.

Continued

Overall sectoral impact

continued Industry Cement
Lower cost of imported coal to offset increase in excise duty The Union Budget 2012-13 has proposed to increase the ad valorem component of excise duty from 10 per cent to 12 per cent, while reducing the specific duty component from Rs 160 to Rs 120 per tonne for non-mini cement plants. This is likely to increase the effective excise duty by 1-1.5 per cent for most cement companies. We expect the proposal to exempt imported non-coking coal from basic customs duty (earlier at 5 per cent) to have a positive impact of 1-1.5 per cent on the cement industrys operating profit. Currently, the industry meets close to onefourth of its total coal requirement through imported coal. The net impact will vary for each company based on the extent of its dependence on imported coal. For instance, the impact will be positive for south-based companies such as India Cements and Dalmia Cements, as their proportion of coal imports is higher.

Effect Neutral

Construction
Tax-free bonds limit doubled; boost to irrigation sector

Positive

A slew of measures, aimed at improving availability of funds to the infrastructure sector, have been announced. These measures will ease financing constraints faced by certain infastructure segments and spur investments. The limit for taxfree bonds in the infrastructure sector has been doubled to Rs 600 billion for 2012-13 from that in 2011-12. The access to viability gap funding for irrigation projects will improve private sector participation in the sector. CRISIL Research believes that private participation in the industry will lead to faster and more efficient implementation of irrigation projects. Secondly, a central body Irrigation and Water Resource Finance Company is expected to be set up in 2012-13, to focus on providing finance to the irrigation and water sector. The Budget has reduced the withholding tax on interest payments of external commercial borrowings for the roads sector, to 5 per cent from 20 per cent. This will marginally benefit construction companies.

Fertilisers
Fertiliser industry to benefit from cheaper farm credit

Positive

Fertiliser demand is set to get a boost on account of cheaper credit availability to farmers. The government will provide interest subvention to farmers who make timely payment of farm loans, effectively lowering the interest rates. Although the government has extended investment-linked benefits, proposed exemption of customs duty on capital equipment and provided viability gap funding for new projects, investment in urea plants will depend on domestic gas allocation. Also, the reduction in basic customs duty on some water-soluble fertilisers and liquid fertilisers may increase their usage, improving revenues and profitability of fertiliser players.

continued

CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Overall sectoral impact

continued Industry Hotels
Service tax increase to impact hotels negatively The reinstatement of service tax to 12 per cent from the earlier rate of 10 per cent will adversely affect hotel players. The abatement provided for hotel accomodation has been reduced from 50 per cent to 40 per cent. As a result, the effective service tax for hotel accomodation will increase to 7.2 per cent from 5 per cent. However, the increase in service tax will be mildly offset by the tax credits allowed on the input services received by hotels. Given the intense competition in the industry, the players will have limited ability to pass on the increase in service tax through higher room rates.

Effect Negative

Household appliances
Customs duty exemption on LCD/LED panels and higher disposable income to benefit industry

Positive

Complete exemption of customs duty on LCD/LED panels from 5 per cent in the previous year will lower panel TV prices, thereby driving demand. An increase in the income tax exemption limit will raise the diposable income of the salaried class by Rs 2,000 annually. Also, an additonal benefit of up to Rs 20,000 would accrue for individuals with income higher than Rs 0.8 million. These factors will more than offset the 2 percentage point increase in excise duty, thus positively impacting the household appliances industry.

Housing
Continued focus on affordable housing

Neutral

ECBs have been allowed as a funding option for affordable housing projects. The withholding tax rate on interest payments for these ECBs has been cut to 5 per cent from 20 per cent for the next three years. However, given weak balance sheets, many real estate developers will find it difficult to raise ECBs. The interest rate subvention of 1 per cent for housing loans up to Rs 1.5 million (for houses costing below Rs 2.5 million) has been extended for another year. A credit guarantee fund is proposed to be set up to improve housing loan disbursements to the low-income category. The rural housing fund has been enhanced to Rs 40 billion from Rs 30 billion. All these measures will support affordable housing projects; however, these projects form only a small proportion of the industry currently. The service tax hike will push up prices of under-construction properties marginally.

Information technology
Increased service tax will be passed on to clients

Neutral

The proposal to increase service tax from 10 per cent to 12 per cent is unlikely to impact the profitability of Indian IT players, as they will pass on the same to the clients. The increase in excise duty from 10 per cent to 12 per cent will have a marginally negative impact on input costs, as the cost of acquisition of computer hardware will increase. Domestic IT services, which constitute about 20 per cent of IT services revenues, are expected to get a shot in the arm from planned government expenditure aimed at improving IT infrastructure and enabling efficient delivery mechanisms.

continued

Overall sectoral impact

continued Industry Media & entertainment
Increased service tax will be passed on to consumers Service tax has been increased to 12 per cent from 10 per cent but we expect DTH and cable operators to pass this on to consumers. Copyrights relating to recording of cinematographic films by the film industry continues to be exempt from service tax.

Effect Neutral

Non-ferrous metals
Excise duty hike to be passed on

Neutral

The increase in excise duty to 12 per cent from 10 per cent will have a neutral impact on the non-ferrrous metal industry as the hike is expected to be passed on to customers. The price increase is likely to be about Rs 2,500 per tonne for aluminium. The exemption of custom duty on non-coking coal may not have a significant impact on most aluminium companies, as they source coal from Coal India Ltd or through the e-auction route.

Oil and gas

Cess increase and low budgeting of subsidies to impact profits

Negative

The proposed increase in cess on production of crude oil, to Rs 4,500 per tonne from Rs 2,500 per tonne, will increase the cost of domestic oil production by $5 to $6 per barrel. The governments estimate of oil subsidies for 2011-12 and 2012-13 seems to be conservative. Given the mounting under-recoveries, oil marketing companies and upstream public sector undertakings may have to absorb a higher share of under-recoveries, which will put severe pressure on their profits. The government has decided to include oil and gas/liquefied natural gas storage facilities and oil and gas pipelines under eligible sectors for viability gap funding. This is marginally positive for the industry.

Paper
Higher excise duties to pull down margins

Negative

Excise duties on paper and paperboard (P&B) and pulp have been increased by 1 per cent. The government has also imposed an excise duty of 6 per cent on wastepaper. Given the oversupply and weak domestic demand, P&B companies will be unable to pass on the entire increase in duties, and will see a further drop in their EBITDA margins. On the positive side, customs duties on imported wastepaper have been removed. Further, the budgetary allocation for education has been increased by 21 per cent to Rs 74,000 crore in 2012-13, which will drive demand for W&P paper. Domestic newsprint manufacturers will benefit as imported pulp will now attract zero customs duty, as against 5 per cent for other paper varieties. Newsprint makers will record an improvement in margins. The impact is negative for P&B players as the impact of excise duty hikes on raw materials and finished goods will outweigh that of customs duty removal on wastepaper. The budget is positive for domestic newsprint manufacturers.
continued

CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Overall sectoral impact

continued Industry Petrochemicals
No significant impact on the industry Apart from an increase in excise duty, no major changes have been announced. The excise duty has been increased to 12 per cent from 10 per cent, while customs duties have been left unchanged.

Effect Neutral

Pharmaceuticals
Players to pass on excise duty hikes

Neutral

The impact of the increase in excise duty to 6 per cent from 5 per cent on formulations and to 12 per cent from 10 per cent on bulk drugs will be neutral. Pharmaceutical companies are likely to pass on these hikes to consumers. The fiveyear extension of the 200 per cent weighted deduction for in-house R&D expenditure will only marginally benefit Indian pharmaceutical players, as R&D expenditure, on an average, forms less than 5 per cent of their net sales.

Ports
Limited impact of tax-free infrastructure bonds

Neutral

Allocation of funds in the form of tax-free infrastructure bonds for the ports sector remains unchanged at Rs 50 billion. While this will facilitate fund availability for the development of port projects, it will not have a major impact on the sector since the same amount was available last year and yet the ports sector was not able to issue any bonds. The cost of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) will decrease as the rate of withholding tax on interest payments on ECBs is proposed to be reduced from 20 per cent to 5 per cent for three years.

Power
Exemption of customs duty on fuel; enhanced fund availability

Positive

The Union Budget 2012-13 is a positive for the power sector. Exemption of 5 per cent customs duty on thermal coal, natural gas and liquified natural gas (LNG) will provide some relief to power generators reeling under high fuel costs. The extension of the sunset clause by one year to avail the 10-year tax holiday and additional depreciation of 20 per cent in the first year also bode well for new power projects. The proposal to allow external commercial borrowings (ECB) to part finance the rupee debt of existing power projects and reduction of withholding tax on interest payments on ECBs (from 20 per cent to 5 per cent) will reduce the cost of borrowings for the sector. The Budget also enhanced the availability of funds for financing power projects through taxfree bonds.

continued

Overall sectoral impact

continued Industry Roads & highways
Measures aimed at further improving fund availability The Union Budget 2012-13 has announced several measures to improve availability of funds for the infrastructure sector. A large portion of these funds are expected to flow into the roads sector. The National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) has again been allowed to issue tax-free bonds totalling Rs 100 billion after the success of its fully-subscribed Rs 100-billion issue last year. The move is expected to aid NHAI in implementing national highway projects. At the corporate level, there has been a reduction in the withholding tax on interest payments of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) for the roads sector, to 5 per cent from 20 per cent. This will, however, only marginally aid road developers as their exposure to ECBs is limited.

Effect Positive

Steel
Steel players likely to pass on hike in excise duty

Neutral

The budget proposal to hike excise duty to 12 per cent from 10 per cent will have a neutral impact on the steel industry. Steel companies are likely to pass on the increase in excise duty, which will increase the price of steel by Rs 700 to Rs 1,000 per tonne. The increase in customs duty on flat steel will provide Indian flat steel players the flexibility to increase prices further by Rs 500 to Rs 1,000 per tonne.

Sugar
No impact of Union Budget 2012-13 on the sugar industry There is no impact of the Union Budget 2012-13 on the domestic sugar industry.

Neutral

continued

CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Overall sectoral impact

continued Industry Telecom
Increased service tax will be passed on to subscribers Though the service tax rate has been increased to 12 per cent from 10 per cent, we expect operators to pass the increase on to subscribers. Under the scheme for support to public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure, fixed network for telecommunication and telecommunication towers have been made eligible for viability gap funding. Further, the Government has estimated receipts of Rs 400 billion in 2012-13 from the auction of telecommunication spectrum.

Effect Neutral

Textiles
Excise cuts on branded apparels beneficial

Positive

The Union Budget has reduced the Excise duty on branded apparels and textile made-ups and removed the customs duty on shuttle-less looms. Effective excise duty on branded apparels and made-ups has been cut to 3.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. This, along with lower cotton prices, will stimulate demand. Allocation for the Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) has been fixed at Rs 29.1 billion for 2012-13, compared to the revised estimate of Rs 37 billion for 2011-12. At this stage, it is not clear whether the TUFS benefits will be available even for fresh investments announced after March 31, 2012. However, the Textile Ministry has recommended the continuation of the scheme in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-13 to 2017-18), with allocations rising to Rs 158.9 billion for the plan period, from Rs 154 billion allocated in the 11th Five Year Plan.

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Capital markets

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CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Equity market
Budget neutral for the capital markets The finance minister has delivered a neutral budget to Dalal Street. Easing of funding for stressed sectors through the ECB route, lower/nil customs duty on mining equipment and increase in personal tax slabs have cheered the markets. However, lack of clear steps on fiscal consolidation, on subsidies and strong reforms to bring Indias growth to 8% (CRISIL Research estimate of 7%) have raised investors concerns. Further, the across-the-board increase in indirect taxes by 2 percentage points, though good for exchequer, will worsen the already-high inflation and lower savings. Outlook for S&P CNX NIFTY Improvement in GDP growth in H2FY13, positive global cues and earnings growth to push up Nifty to 5750- 5850 by endFY13.

12

Funds and fixed income

Higher fiscal deficit could impact interest rate movement The fiscal deficit is pegged at Rs 5,13,590 crore, which is 5.1 per cent of GDP. The net market borrowing through dated securities to finance this deficit is Rs 4.79 lakh crore. Impact: This may slow the pace of decline in interest rates. Access for QFIs to debt market may help deepen the market Qualified foreign investors (QFIs) have been permitted to access the Indian corporate bond market. Impact: This is another step in the continued effort towards widening the investor base for capital markets. Central KYC depository would help in standardisation and avoid duplication A central Know Your Customer (KYC) depository will be developed in 2012-13 to avoid multiplicity of registration and data upkeep. Impact: This will enable standardisation of KYC requirements across market participants regulated by separate regulators. While avoiding duplication of efforts, it will bring greater efficiency and retail participation in financial products. Hike in customs duty would increase price of gold Basic customs duty on standard gold bars (gold coins of purity exceeding 99.5 per cent) has been increased from 2 per cent to 4 per cent. Impact: The price of gold per unit will increase and may impact the demand for gold / gold exchange traded funds. Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme would help increase equity penetration Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme is proposed to allow for income tax deduction of 50 per cent to new retail investors who invest up to Rs 50,000 directly in equities and whose annual income is below Rs 10 lakh. The scheme will have a lock-in period of 3 years. Impact: This will deepen the equity markets in terms of retail penetration. Reduction in STT would reduce transaction cost for mutual funds Securities transaction tax (STT) will be reduced by 20 per cent on cash delivery transactions. Impact: The transaction costs for asset managers will reduce, as they only do delivery-based transactions.

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CRISIL BudgetAnalysis

Funds and fixed income

Hike in service tax rate could increase costs for investors The service tax rate has been increased from 10 per cent to 12 per cent, with consequential changes in rates for services that have individual tax rates. Impact: This will increase the cost for investors of financial products where the expenses of the mutual fund are within the permissible limits allowed by regulations, as the fund will have the necessary headroom to include the increased service tax rate as part of cost. However, in case the limits are already met, this can impact the profitability of asset managers. Amendment to PFRDA Bill will help speed up implementation of pension reforms The official amendment to the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority Bill, 2011 will be moved in this session. Impact: If the Bill gets passed, it will be a key milestone for speeding up the implementation of pension reforms in the country. This will help expand the coverage of pension security to the unorganised sector.

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