Egu Splinter 2012

Results of the planview Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison, MISMIP3d
Frank Pattyn1 , Laura Perichon1 , Gael Durand2, Lionel Favier2 , Olivier Gagliardini2 , Richard Hindmarsh3, Thomas Zwinger4
1 Universit 2 LGGECNRS,
Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium) Grenoble (France) 3 British Antarctic Survey (UK) 4 CSC (Finland)
European Geosciences Union 2012: Splinter Meeting
F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
1 / 31
Motivation theory
Outline
Motivation theory How to model grounding lines? 3D grounding line modeling Conclusions and outlook
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
2 / 31
Motivation theory
Marine Ice Sheet Instability

How fast? Weertman (1974) Thomas and Bentley (1978) Ice discharge across GL should increase with h Ice sheet on upsloping bedrock: slight retreat increase in h increase in ux (positive feedback) Continues until ice sheet disintegrates or downward-sloping bed is reached
Vaughan and Arthern (2007), Science
Situation is different when lateral conditions are non-uniform (buttressing)

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS) MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
3 / 31
Motivation theory

How far?
No stable GLs on upward sloping sea oor Potential WAIS collapse SLR of 3.3m (Bamber et al., 2009) CAVEAT: Simplied description of ice mechanics
Bamber et al. (2009), Science F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS) MISMIP3d EGU Vienna 2012 4 / 31
How to model grounding lines?
Outline
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
5 / 31
Grounding line mechanics
Grounding line mechanics
Ice sheet: vertical shear
Grounding line: Complex control of ice outow
Ice shelf: buoyancy-driven ow (longitudinal stretching + lateral shearing)
After Schoof (2007)
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
6 / 31
Physical approximations
Grounding line modeling

Momentum conservation
i dv = + i g dt = = = 0 0 i g
Approximations
Full Stokes (FS) (Durand et al., 2009) Higher-order (HOM) (Pattyn, 2003) Shallow-shelf (SSA) (MacAyeal et
al., 1996)
xy xx xz + + x y z yy yz yx + + x y z zy zz zx + + x y z
Components of the stress tensor (Greve and Blatter, 2009)
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
7 / 31

i dv = + i g dt xz z yz z zz z
Approximations
xy xx + + x y yx yy + + x y zx + zy + x y
= = =
0 0 i g
al., 1996)
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
7 / 31

i dv = + i g dt
Approximations
xy xx xz + + = x y z yz yy yx + + = x y z zx + zy + zz = x y z
0 0 i g
al., 1996)
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
7 / 31
Boundary layer theory
GL boundary layer theory

Schoof (2007): boundary layer theory for sheet / shelf transition Qualitatively conrms Weertman (1974) / Thomas & Bentley (1978) GL is free boundary problem: two independent conditions at moving boundary (one of which is otation criterion) Depth-integrated longitudinal stress should balance on both sides of GL q(xg ) = A(g)n+1 (1 /w )n 4n C
1 m+1
[h(xg )]
m+n+3 m+1
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
8 / 31
Boundary layer theory
Including BL theory in nite-difference models

Pollard and DeConto (2009)
Incorporation of Schoof solution in xed grid models with heuristic rule: qg > qi :
qg
g ui = 2 hi +hi1
retreat advance
qg < qi : ui+1 = qg qi ui hi i
qg 2 hi +hi+1
qi
qi+1
: analytical ice ux at GL : modeled ice ux on u-grid : ice velocity on u-grid : ice thickness on h-grid : last grounded grid point
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
9 / 31
Boundary conditions
Boundary conditions
Seaward edge pw (z, t) = w g(zw z) , 0, z < zw z zw
Bottom: non-linear friction law nt |b = C|u|m1 ui ti . A kinematic boundary condition determines the evolution of upper and lower surfaces: zj zj + ux = uz + aj . t x
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
10 / 31
Numerical approximations

Contact problem
FIXED GRID
GL is not dened explicitly GL falls between grid points - dependency on numerics (e.g. grid size) + easy to implement in 3D Large-scale models (e.g. Huybrechts, 1990; Ritz et al., 2001; Pollard and DeConto, 2009)
ADAPTIVE GRID
Trade-off between xed and moving grids (e.g. Durand et al., 2009; Goldberg et al., 2009; Katz and Worster, 2010; Gladstone et al., 2010)
MOVING GRID
GL is a grid point Allows GL to be followed continuously + more consistent results - complex to implement in 3D models (e.g. Hindmarsh, 1996; Hindmarsh and Le Meur, 2001)
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
11 / 31

Contact problem
FIXED GRID
ADAPTIVE GRID
MOVING GRID
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
11 / 31

Contact problem
FIXED GRID
ADAPTIVE GRID
MOVING GRID
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
11 / 31
How should grounding lines behave according to theory?

Grounding line position is unique on downward-sloping bedrock (without lateral variations)
after perturbation: grounding line should return to initial position (reversible) no neutral equilibrium longitudinal stress coupling across the grounding line may lead to hysteresis with overdeepened bedrock MISMIP3d: Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for planview models1
Marine trigger should have an impact on the inland ice sheet
No steady states on upsloping bedrock
Is this also valid for curved grounding lines?
google mismip3d
MISMIP3d EGU Vienna 2012 12 / 31
3D grounding line modeling
Outline
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
13 / 31
MISMIP3d participants
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
S. Cornford, A.J. Payne, Univ Bristol, UK (SCO) L. Favier, LGGE, France (LFA) J. Fuerst, P. Huybrechts, O. Rybak, VUB, Belgium (VUB) D. Goldberg (DGO) G. H. Gudmundsson, BAS, UK (HGU) R. C. Hindmarsh, BAS, UK (RHI) G. Jouvet, Univ Berlin, Germany (GJO) T. Kleiner, AWI, Germany (TKL) F. Pattyn, ULB, Belgium (FPA) D. Pollard, Penn State, USA (DPO) H. Seroussi, JPL, USA (HSE) M. Thoma, AWI, Germany (MTH) N. Wilkens, M. Rueckamp, Univ Hamburg (NWI)
MISMIP3d EGU Vienna 2012 14 / 31
Participating model types
ASY Asymptotic models: SIA models with SSA ice shelf and heuristic at grounding line (prescribed ice ux according to boundary layer theory). Buttressing factor included SSA L1L2 shallow-shelf models (type MacAyeal). No heuristic. SSA* L1L2 due to Schoof-Hindmarsh (lowered viscosity at GL) FS Full Stokes models
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
15 / 31
Acronym DPO1 MTH1 MTH2 MTH3 VUB1 DGO1 DGO2 FPA1 FPA2 GJO1 HSE1 HGU1 RHI1 SCO0 SCO6 LFA1 NWI1
Approximation ASY ASY ASY ASY ASY SSA SSA SSA SSA SSA SSA SSA SSA SSA* SSA* FS FS
Numerical method FD FD FD FD FD FE FE FD FD FE FE FE HPOMG FV FV FE FE
min(x ) 5 10 5 20 2.5 0.3 0.03 0.5 0.05 1.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 6.25 0.01 0.05 0.25
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
16 / 31
Model setup
MISMIP3d
Standard setup
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
17 / 31
Perturbation experiments
MISMIP3d
Basal sliding perturbation
Gaussian bump exactly at the SS GL on the axis of symmetry (either 75% or 10%). Run for 100 years (S-run). Reset sliding anomaly and run model to SS again (R-run).
F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS) MISMIP3d EGU Vienna 2012 18 / 31
Perturbation experiments
WARNING
1 2 3
MISMIP3d is a community effort all results are condential and preliminary not all results are processed plotted results may not necessarily reect the model result
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
19 / 31
accumulation = 0.3 m/yr
DPO1
40 km 20 0
Stdn P75S P75Rsst P10S P10Rsst
MTH1
40 20 0 560 40 20 0
MTH2
40 20 0
MTH5
40 20 0
VUB1
520
540
560
580
600
560
580
600
560
580
600
520
540
DGO1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0 520
DGO2
40 20 0
FPA1
40 20 0
FPA2
40 20 0
GJO1
520
540
560
540
560
440
460
480
500
520
540
400
420
440
HSE1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
HGU2
40 20 0
RHI1
40 20 0
SCO0
40 20 0
SCO1
480
500
520
520
540
560
520
540
560
460
480
500
460
480
500
SCO2
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
SCO3
40 20 0
SCO4
40 20 0
SCO5
40 20 0
SCO6
460
480 km
500
460
480 km
500
460
480 km
500
460
480 km
500
460
480 km
500
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
20 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 P75S 40 P10S u =230.8m/yr st 20 0
MTH1
40 u =118.8m/yr
st
MTH2
40 u =133.3m/yr 20 0
st
MTH5
40 u =130.9m/yr 20 0
st
VUB1
u =225.5m/yr 20 0
st
DGO1
40 km u =235.4m/yr 20 0
st
DGO2
40 u =226.1m/yr 20 0
st
FPA1
40 u =216.6m/yr 20 0
st
FPA2
40 u =224.1m/yr 20 0
st
GJO1
40 u =189.0m/yr 20 0
st
HSE1
40 km u =222.0m/yr 20 0
st
HGU2
40 u =224.1m/yr 20 0
st
RHI1
40 u =226.9m/yr 20 0
st
SCO0
40 u =199.9m/yr 20 0
st
SCO1
40 u =208.1m/yr 20 0
st
SCO2
40 km u =211.5m/yr 20 0
st
SCO3
40 u =216.2m/yr 20 0
st
SCO4
40 u =218.1m/yr 20 0
st
SCO5
40 u =219.2m/yr 20 0
st
SCO6
40 u =219.9m/yr 20 0
st
1 u/us
1 u/us
1 u/us
1 u/us
1 u/us
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
21 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 P75S P10S 40 20 0
MTH1
40 20 0 50
MTH2
40 20 0
MTH5
40 20 0
VUB1
50
100
10
20
50
10
20
200
400
DGO1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
DGO2
40 20 0 10
FPA1
40 20 0 10
FPA2
40 20 0
GJO1
100
200
50
100
10
10
200
400
HSE1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
HGU2
40 20 0
RHI1
40 20 0
SCO0
40 20 0
SCO1
100
200
100
200
100
200
100
200
100
200
SCO2
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
SCO3
40 20 0
SCO4
40 20 0
SCO5
40 20 0
SCO6
100 v
200
100 v
200
100 v
200
100 v
200
100 v
200
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
22 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 680 P75S P10S 40 20 0 700
MTH1
40 20 0 600
MTH2
40 20 0 700
MTH5
40 20 0 650
VUB1
700
720
750
800
700
800
750
800
700
750
DGO1
40 km 20 0 650 40 20 0 680
DGO2
40 20 0 550
FPA1
40 20 0
FPA2
40 20 0 550
GJO1
700
750
700
720
600
650
660
680
700
600
650
HSE1
40 km 20 0 640 40 20 0 660
HGU2
40 20 0 660
RHI1
40 20 0 500
SCO0
40 20 0 500
SCO1
660
680
680
700
680
700
600
700
600
700
SCO2
40 km 20 0 600 40 20 0 600
SCO3
40 20 0 600
SCO4
40 20 0 600
SCO5
40 20 0 600
SCO6
650 ice thickness
700
650 ice thickness
650 ice thickness
620 ice thickness
640
620 ice thickness
640
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
23 / 31
DPO1
560 km 540 580 520 500 0 50 100 560 0 600
MTH1
650
MTH2
570 P75S axis P75S wall P75R axis P75R wall 0 50 100 560
MTH5
540
VUB1
600
520 550 540 0 50 100 500 0 50 100
50
100
550
DGO1
540 km 530 530 520 510 0 50 100 520 0 540
DGO2
480 460
FPA1
520
FPA2
450
GJO1
500 440 50 100 420 0 50 100 480 0 50 100
400
350
50
100
HSE1
500 km 490 480 470 0 50 100 530 520 510 500 0
HGU2
530 520 510 50 100 500 0
RHI1
500 480 460 50 100 440 0
SCO0
500 480 460 50 100 440 0
SCO1
50
100
SCO2
480 km 470 460 450 0 50 years 100 480 470 460 450 0
SCO3
480 470 460 50 years 100 450 0
SCO4
480 470 460 50 years 100 450 0
SCO5
480 470 460 50 years 100 450 0
SCO6
50 years
100
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
24 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 600
Stdn P75S P75Rsst P10S P10Rsst
MTH1
40 20 0 40 20 0
MTH2
40 20 0
MTH5
40 20 0
VUB1
620
640
660
680
700
720
660
680
700
660
680
700
600
620
640
660
LFA1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
DGO1
40 20 0
DGO2
40 20 0
FPA1
40 20 0
FPA2
540
560
580
620
640
660
620
640
660
540
560
580
580
600
620
640
GJO1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
HSE1
40 20 0
RHI1
40 20 0
SCO0
40 20 0
SCO1
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
600
620
640
660
540
560
580
540
560
580
SCO2
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
SCO3
40 20 0
SCO4
40 20 0
SCO5
40 20 0
SCO6
540
560 km
580
540
560 km
580
540
560 km
580
540
560 km
580
540
560 km
580
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
25 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 P75S 40 P10S u =384.3m/yr st 20 0
MTH1
40 u =161.0m/yr
st
MTH2
40 u =257.5m/yr 20 0
st
MTH5
40 u =228.9m/yr 20 0
st
VUB1
u =387.5m/yr 20 0
st
LFA1
40 km u =381.9m/yr 20 0
st
DGO1
40 u =382.3m/yr 20 0
st
DGO2
40 u =386.9m/yr 20 0
st
FPA1
40 u =374.4m/yr 20 0
st
FPA2
40 u =384.2m/yr 20 0
st
GJO1
40 km u =337.5m/yr 20 0
st
HSE1
40 u =376.5m/yr 20 0
st
RHI1
40 u =388.2m/yr 20 0
st
SCO0
40 u =341.1m/yr 20 0
st
SCO1
40 u =359.6m/yr 20 0
st
SCO2
40 km u =366.0m/yr 20 0
st
SCO3
40 u =373.2m/yr 20 0
st
SCO4
40 u =375.6m/yr 20 0
st
SCO5
40 u =377.6m/yr 20 0
st
SCO6
40 u =378.5m/yr 20 0
st
1 u/us
1 u/us
1 u/us
1 u/us
1 u/us
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
26 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 P75S P10S 40 20 0 50
MTH1
40 20 0
MTH2
40 20 0
MTH5
40 20 0 500
VUB1
50
100
50
10
20
200
400
500
LFA1
40 km 20 0 500 40 20 0
DGO1
40 20 0
DGO2
40 20 0 20
FPA1
40 20 0 20
FPA2
500
50
100
50
100
20
20
GJO1
40 km 20 0 40 20 0 500
HSE1
40 20 0
RHI1
40 20 0
SCO0
40 20 0
SCO1
200
400
500
200
400
200
400
200
400
SCO2
40 km 20 0 40 20 0
SCO3
40 20 0
SCO4
40 20 0
SCO5
40 20 0
SCO6
200 v
400
200 v
400
200 v
400
200 v
400
200 v
400
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
27 / 31
DPO1
40 km 20 0 750 P75S P10S 40 20 0 800
MTH1
40 20 0 800
MTH2
40 20 0 800
MTH5
40 20 0 780
VUB1
800
850
900
1000
850
900
850
900
800
820
LFA1
40 km 20 0 700 40 20 0 780
DGO1
40 20 0 790
DGO2
40 20 0 700
FPA1
40 20 0
FPA2
720
740
800
820
800
810
720
740
760
780
800
GJO1
40 km 20 0 650 40 20 0 700
HSE1
40 20 0 760
RHI1
40 20 0 600
SCO0
40 20 0 600
SCO1
700
750
750
780
800
800
1000
700
800
SCO2
40 km 20 0 650 40 20 0 650
SCO3
40 20 0 700
SCO4
40 20 0 700
SCO5
40 20 0 700
SCO6
700 750 ice thickness
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
28 / 31
DPO1
660 km 640 620 600 0 50 100 720 700
MTH1
750
MTH2
670 P75S axis P75S wall P75R axis P75R wall 0 50 100 660
MTH5
640
VUB1
700 680 660 0 50 100 650
620 650 640 0 50 100 600 0 50 100
LFA1
560 km 550 540 530 0 50 100 630 620
DGO1
630
DGO2
580 560 620
FPA1
620
FPA2
600 540
610 600 0 50 100 610 0 50 100
520
50
100
580
50
100
GJO1
550 km 560
HSE1
620 610
RHI1
570 560 550 0 50 100 540 0
SCO0
580 560 540 50 100 520 0
SCO1
500
550 600
450
50
100
540
50
100
590
50
100
SCO2
560 km 550 540 530 0 50 years 100 560 550 540 530 0
SCO3
560 550 540 50 years 100 530 0
SCO4
560 550 540 50 years 100 530 0
SCO5
560 550 540 50 years 100 530 0
SCO6
50 years
100
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
29 / 31
Conclusions and outlook
Outline
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
30 / 31

Most models produce a curved grounding line. Best pronounced with 75% sliding perturbation Most models retreat their GL close to initial position. Accuracy is a function of grid resolution non-unique GL positions? a number of models have GL position retreating behind initial position, due to curvature (GL moves upstream of initial position near Position of SS GL a function on BC or viscosity at GL? Does FS matter? Transients: response times different between models: bugs? IPCC validation: span/transients/retreat?
MISMIP3d
EGU Vienna 2012
31 / 31

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Results of the planview Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison, MISMIP3d

European Geosciences Union 2012: Splinter Meeting

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

Marine Ice Sheet Instability

Marine Ice Sheet Instability

Vaughan and Arthern (2007), Science

Situation is different when lateral conditions are non-uniform (buttressing)

EGU Vienna 2012

Marine Ice Sheet Instability

Marine Ice Sheet Instability

How to model grounding lines?

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line mechanics

Grounding line mechanics

Ice sheet: vertical shear

Grounding line: Complex control of ice outow

Ice shelf: buoyancy-driven ow (longitudinal stretching + lateral shearing)

After Schoof (2007)

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line modeling

Components of the stress tensor (Greve and Blatter, 2009)

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line modeling

Components of the stress tensor (Greve and Blatter, 2009)

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line modeling

Components of the stress tensor (Greve and Blatter, 2009)

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Boundary layer theory

GL boundary layer theory

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Boundary layer theory

Including BL theory in nite-difference models

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line modeling

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line modeling

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)

EGU Vienna 2012

How to model grounding lines?

Grounding line modeling

F. Pattyn et al. (ULBLGGEBAS)