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PRAXIS BUSINESS SCHOOL

MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
PRESENTED TO:-

SUMA DAMODARAN
BY:-

NABENDU KAR (B08017)

SUMANTA KUMAR SAMANTARAY (B08035)

INDUSTRY: INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY

PRAXIS BUSINESS SCHOOL | KOLKATA

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CONTENTS
Page

THE GLOBAL STEEL INDUSTRY 3

THE STRUCTURE OF INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY 4

CONSUMPTION OF STEEL INDIA 5

SUPPLY OF STEEL IN INDIAN MARKET 11

SUPPLY DEMAND MISMATCH 12

MARKET SHARE OF DIFFERENT 13

COMPETETION ANALYSIS 15

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS 16

EXPECTED GROWTH 17

FACTORS HOLDING BACK THE INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY 19

OUTLOOK 21

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THE GLOBAL STEEL INDUSTRY

The current global steel industry is in its best position in comparing to last
decades. The price has been rising continuously. The demand expectations for
steel products are rapidly growing for coming years. The shares of steel
industries are also in a high pace. The steel industry is enjoying its 6th
consecutive years of growth in supply and demand. And there is many more
merger and acquisitions which overall buoyed the industry and showed some
good results.

The subprime crisis has lead to the recession in economy of different

countries, which may lead to have a negative effect on whole steel industry in
coming years. However steel production and consumption will be supported by
continuous economic growth.

CONTRIBUTION OF COUNTRIES TO GLOBAL STEEL INDUSTRY

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The countries like China, Japan, India and South Korea are in the top of the
above in steel production in Asian countries. China accounts for one third of total
production i.e. 419m ton, Japan accounts for 9% i.e. 118m ton, India accounts
for 53m ton and South Korea is accounted for 49m ton, which all totally becomes
more than 50% of global production. Apart from this USA, BRAZIL, UK accounts
for the major chunk of the whole growth.

STRUCTURE OF INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY

The steel industry in India is concentrated in the east, south and west of the
country. The integrated foundries are located in the east, while electric steel is
produced predominantly in the south and west. In the future the east will see
rapid expansion as more integrated capacities are being built in Orissa and other
eastern states due to its raw materials.

Although India is now one of the worlds top ten steel producers, its domestic
output is insufficient to meet the demand in all segments. Imports increased in
2005 by 8% and it is likely that India will continue to import in many segments
over the medium term. According to Deutsche Bank Research,1 the three biggest
steelmakers in India have a combined output of almost 20 million tons and have
a domestic market share of 51%. Their domestic competitors are numerous me-
dium-sized and smallish companies and more mergers can be expected between
these companies as these firms need to improve their position with regard to the
powerful suppliers of raw materials.

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CONSUMPSION OF STEEL IN INDIA

Driven a booming economy and concomitant demand levels, consumption of

steel has grown by 12.5 per cent during the last three years, well above the 6.9
percent envisaged in the National Steel Policy.

Steel consumption amounted to 58.45 mt in 2006-07 compared to 50.27 mt in

2005-06, recording a growth rate of 16.3 per cent, which is higher than the
world average. During the first half of the current year, steel consumption has
grown by 16 per cent. A study done by the Credit Suisse Group says that India's
steel consumption will continue to grow by 17 per cent annually till 2012, fuelled
by demand for construction projects worth US$ 1 trillion.

The scope for raising the total consumption of steel in the country is huge, as
the per capita steel consumption is only 35 kgs compared to 150 kg in the world
and 250 kg in China.

With this surge in demand level, steel producers have been reporting
encouraging results. For example, the top six companies, which account for 70
per cent of the total production capacity, have recorded a year-on-year growth
rate of 13.4 per cent, 15.7 per cent and 11.7 per cent in net sales, operating
profit and net profit, respectively, during the second quarter of 2007-08

We expect strong demand growth in India over the next five years, driven by a
boom in construction (43%-plus of steel demand in India). Soaring demand by
sectors like infrastructure, real estate and automobiles, at home and abroad, has
put India's steel industry on the world steel map.

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YEAR WISE DEMAND OF INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY

YEAR DEMAND (in m t) GROWTH IN %

2000-2001 34.444
2001-2002 36.037 4.625
2002-2003 40.471 12.32
2003-2004 43.O62 6.4
2004-2005 45.387 5.4
2005-2006 50.257 10.73
2006-2007 58.45 16.3

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF GROWTH AND DEMAND OF INDIAN STEEL

INDUSTRY

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MAJOR CONSUMERS OF INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY

Support from dynamic economy

India is the economic region that has enjoyed the world’s most sustained
boom. The Deutsche Bank Research Formel-G econometric model forecasts
average real GDP growth of 5.5% p.a. for India between 2006 and 2020 O
followed by Malaysia (5.4%) and China (5.2%). In all, the analysis covered
34 economies that generate some 85% of global GDP. The growth drivers
are population growth, human capital, opening of the economy and rising
investment. Despite the sharp increase in India’s population, per-capita
GDP – in purchasing power parity terms – should rise by nearly 4% per
year until 2020. Since the model does not take sufficient account of the
country’s major initiatives in the infrastructure area, average growth until
2020 might turn out to be even closer to 6%. In fact, by the end of the
decade India could replace Japan as the world’s third biggest economy
after the US and China

Positive stimuli from construction industry

The steel companies are pinning their hopes largely on the expanding
construction industry. The industry is one of the key drivers of India’s
economic growth. Up to 10 million new homes need to be built each year
until 2030. Strong population growth, rising incomes and decreasing
household sizes are forcing comprehensive measures to be taken in the
housing sector. The pent-up demand for housing is estimated at around 20
million units by the Indian Construction Association; the Ministry for Urban
Development and Poverty Alleviation claims that no less than 31 million
dwellings are needed. The hosting of the Commonwealth Games in New
Delhi in 2010 should generate additional stimulus for the construction
industry and thus boost demand for steel. In addition to the sports facili-
ties, accommodation for competitors and visitors is planned. The govern-
ment has announced that some 40 hotels with a total of 15,000 beds are
to be built. The Indian office market is benefiting from the ongoing off

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shoring activities of industrial nations. Indian insurers are concentrated in

the software development and software product segments. Their second
main business area is assuming the responsibility for entire support
processes, or business process outsourcing (BPO). These segments still
look set for growth.6 Furthermore, the construction sector is benefiting
from major infrastructure projects. Capital expenditure is to be focused on
road building and the rail network, as well as on the construction and ex-
pansion of ports and airports

Strong growth in mechanical engineering

Mechanical engineering output has increased some 10% p.a. over the past
five years. Thanks to the march of technological progress the prospects for
domestic suppliers should improve going forward, while import growth is
slightly crimped. Demand is greatest for building machinery and
plastic-moulding machines as well as machine tools and textile machinery.
Since the domestic textile and apparel industry, for example, is focusing
further up the value chain, firms have to make numerous investments in
modernising and expanding their machinery portfolios Makers of building
machinery are benefiting from the large-scale infrastructure projects
planned by the Indian government, while machine-tool makers are being
buoyed by the upturn in the automobile and auto parts industries for
example. Exports by the Indian mechanical engineering industry rose
recently by nearly 30% to USD 10 bn. By comparison, German mechanical
engineering firms exported products worth close to USD 117 bn, including
machinery to the value of about USD 1 bn to India. Germany claims a
particularly large share of Indian imports of Woodworking machinery and
machine tools as well as pumps and compressors. The demand for foreign
machinery comes from customers requiring especially high standards of
performance and precision. The Engineering Exports Promotion Council
(EEPC) forecasts that Indian exports will be worth USD 30 bn (+32% p.a.)
by 2008; nevertheless the volume is still very low by international
standards.

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Booming automobile industry

The automotive industry may consume a relatively small proportion of steel

output, but its growth rate is the highest of the most important clients for
the steel industry. In India a small but flourishing automobile industry has
now developed that sees its future primarily in the budget price segment
and views the domestic market and other emerging nations as potential
markets.7 Vehicle ownership (cars and trucks) in India at 11 per 1,000
inhabitants are even less widespread than in China with its very low figure
of 21. The growth of the Indian automobile industry is being driven by
healthy domestic demand. The consumption minded, fast-growing middle
class is a major factor. The continuing increase in incomes and low-cost
financing facilities are boosting sales. However, it is not uncommon for
cars to be used for 20 years (Western Europe: 12 years), with vehicles that
have been taken off urban roads often being driven for longer in rural
areas. The population’s steadily growing demand for mobility and sharply
rising traffic volumes will continue to generate strong demand for cars in
the future. At the same time India’s automobile sector is establishing itself
as an exporter to international markets. Hyundai, for example, uses the
country as an export base for small cars, and Ford manufactures vehicles
there for South Africa and other markets. However, competition between
automakers has intensified markedly. Whereas in 1995 there were just five
carmakers in India the figure has now reached 10. The biggest are Maruti
Udyog Ltd., Hyundai Motor India and Tata Engineering (Telco). The Tata
group is even trying to gain a foothold in the European market with new
models. India currently produces a total of 711,000 cars each year
(Germany: 5.4 million).

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SUPPLY OF STEEL IN THE INDIAN MARKET

Over the past ten years India’s crude steel output rose nearly 7%per year to
55.3 million tons , while global crude steel output increased by 4% (Germany
managed an increase of just under 1%p.a.) Although India is the world’s eighth
largest steel producer, its3%-plus share of global steel output is still very low; it
is roughly the same as Ukraine’s share of world steel production. China, the
world’s biggest steelmaker, produces nearly ten times as much as India.In 2005
India’s crude steel output of 46.5 million tons was 8%higher than in 2004; only
in China was the growth rate considerably higher at 15%. By contrast, produc-
tion volumes fell in the US and the EU-25 by nearly 5% and roughly 4% respec-
tively. In the first five months of 2006 Indian steel production continued to ex-
pand unabated, rising 10% yoy.

We forecast a significant increase in output by the Indian steel industry over the
medium term. The entire industry’s contribution to gross domestic product
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should rise in the coming years to more than 30% – compared to just under
27% at present. The growth drivers are the expanding client industries
Automotive engineering (production up 16% p.a. between 2000 and 2005),
mechanical engineering (up 10% p.a.) and construction (up 6% p.a.).

YEAR SUPPLY ( in m t) GROWTH IN %

2000-2001 32.81
2001-2002 34.70 5.76
2002-2003 38.96 12.23
2003-2004 41.41 6.29
2004-2005 43.278 4.51
2005-2006 46.492 7.42
2006-2007 54.35 16.91

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF SUPPLY OF INDIAN STEEL

INDUSTRY

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SUPPLY DEMAND MISMATCH

Even though India is now one of the world’s top ten steelmakers its domestic
output is insufficient to meet the demand in all segments. In 2005, some 4.7
million tons of steel were imported, compared with only 2.2 million ten years
earlier (an annual increase of 8%). The growth in Indian import demand in 2005
of around 2 million tons is roughly equivalent to the total annual output of
Hungary. Low steel prices smooth the way for imports from Russia, Ukraine and
Kazakhstan. The geographical proximity of Japan, South Korea and China makes
them important suppliers as well. We do not expect India to be self-sufficient in
many segments over the medium term. There are several reasons for this: firstly,
steel consumption is rising very fast as a consequence of the prospective
dynamic economic growth. Secondly, there is demand for high-quality products
which India will not be able to supply in sufficient quantities for the foreseeable
future. These include products with surface finishing that helps them to be more
durable and retain their value for longer. In general, the trend towards
weight-optimized components persists; this improves the prospects for Western
European exporters in the Indian market. As a member of the WTO (since 1995)
India is obliged to gradually abolish import restrictions, so importing steel should
be far less problematic in future.

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MARKET SHARE OF LEADING PLAYERS IN IRON AND

STEEL INDUSTRY

COMPAY PRODUCTIO OF MARKET SHARE(I PER-

STEEL (I MIL- CETAGE TERMS)
LIO TOES)

SAIL 13.5 32%

TISCO 5.2 11%

RNIL 3.5 8%

ESSAR,ISPAT,JSWL 8.4 19%

OTHERS 14.5 30%

TOTAL 45.1 100%

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Steel Production 2006-07

Others RINL
31% 8%
Sail
30%

Essar,
JSW & Tata
Ispat steel
19% 12%

SOURCE: SAILS Annual report

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COMPETITION ANALYSIS

Concentration Ratio:

In Economics the concentration ratio of an industry is used as an indicator

of the relative size of firms in relation to the industry as a whole. This may
also assist in determining the market form of the industry. One commonly
used concentration ratio is the four-firm concentration ratio, which consists
of the market share, as a percentage, of the four largest firms in the indus-
try. In general, the N-firm concentration ratio is the percentage of market
output generated by the N largest firms in the industry.

• The 4 firm concentration ratio of the Iron and Steel Industry is 71%.

• This implies that there is oligopoly in the industry as it is dominated my few

major players. Major percentage of market output is generated by the 4
largest firms in the industry.

Herfindahl Index:

The Herfindahl index, also known as Herfindahl-Hirschman Index or HHI, is

a measure of the size of firms in relationship to the industry and an indica-
tor of the amount of competition among them. It is an economic concept
but widely applied in competition law and antitrust. It is defined as the sum
of the squares of the market shares of each individual firm. As such, it can
range from 0 to 1 moving from a very large amount of very small firms to a
single monopolistic producer. Decreases in the Herfindahl index generally
indicate a loss of pricing power and an increase in competition, whereas in-
creases imply the opposite.

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• Value of Herfindahl index for Indian Steel Industry is .2470.

• It implies that the competition in the steel industry is medium to high and
high concentration.

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

Active mergers and acquisitions (M&A s) among players were indicative of the
consolidation dynamics within the steel industry globally.

Consolidation among top steel companies would continue in 2008 since industry
players are engaged in an unfettered rush for scale. In so doing steelmakers are
pursuing two main objectives: by purchasing additional production capacity they
aim to both improve their cost structure and increase their market clout. The
merger of the world’s two biggest steelmakers Mittal Steel (Netherlands) and
Arcelor (Luxembourg) will create an industry giant whose output is nearly four
times as much as that of the next biggest player (Nippon Steel) and eight times
as much as SAIL’s. If it continues like this 35% of steel production confined in
the top 10 companies within the next five years.

Consolidation among industry players would be driven by strategic fits between

companies, rather than financially centered deals.

A company can be a good strategic fit for merger if it has, among other things,
attractive access to raw materials, production capabilities, proven success in
complementary markets, new technologies or patented products and a success-
ful global supply network.

In India the three biggest steelmakers, whose combined output is almost 20

million tons, have a market share of 51%. Their domestic competitors are
numerous medium sized and smallish companies. One of these, for example, is

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Ispat with an output of 2 million tons. More mergers can be expected between
companies of this size as these firms need to improve their position with regard
to the powerful suppliers of raw materials. But till now there is no sign of
acquisition or mergers of Indian steel companies within India because most of
the major producers are public.
As different major global steel producers like Arcelor-mittal, Posco and others are
setting up plants in India, competition in the future will increase. In that case
several mid-size domestic companies may go for mergers. But if we see from the
current position of the industry we can say that in future Indian steel industry
will remain oligopoly or can become a competitive one.

EXPECTED GROWTH

The International Iron and Steel Institute(IISI) has fore casted that the steel
demand will go of from 1.12 billion ton to 1.19 billion ton in 2008.And this will
further increase in a higher rate up to 2010.In India the growth will be more
prominent because of the growth in Real estate, Aviation, Manufacturing, Auto-
mobile sectors. The expected growth of the major steel in Indian market is given
by the following table.

INCREASE Year
COMPANY NAME
In “000”ton

ARCELOR 5000 2010

BAI BALAJI 2000 2010

BHUSAN STEEL & STRIPS 2000 2007

BHUSAN LTD. 300O 2008

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ESSAR GUJURAT 1250 2006

INDIAN IRON & STEEL 1500 2009

ISPAT INDUSTRIES 2800 2010

JINDAL STEEL & POWER 3000 2008

ISPAT INDUSTRIES 2800 2010

MITTAL STEEL 6000 2009

POSCO 4000 2010

RASHTRIYA ISPAT NIGAM 1450 2007

TATA STEEL 15000 2010

VEDANT RESOURCES 5000 2008

VISA INDUSTRIES 1500 2010

VIZAG 1600 2008

SAIL 2000 2007

VISHAKHPATTANAM 5100 2010

TOTAL 62700 2006-2010

SOURCE WV STAHI

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FACTORS HOLDING BACK THE INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY

The growth of the Indian steel industry and its share of global crude steel pro-
duction could be even higher if they were not being held back by major deficien-
cies in fundamental areas. Investment in infrastructure is rising appreciably but
remains well below the target levels set by the government due to financing
problems.

Energy supply

Power shortages hamper production at many locations. Since 2001 the

Indian government has been endeavoring to ensure that power is available
nationwide by 2012. The deficiencies have prompted many firms with
heavier energy demands to opt for producing electricity with their own
industrial generators. India will rely squarely on nuclear energy for its
future power generation requirements. In September 2005 the 15th and
largest nuclear reactor to date went on-line. The nuclear share of the
energy mix is likely to rise to roughly 25% by 2050. Overall, India is likely
to be the world’s fourth largest energy consumer by 2010 after the US,
China and Japan.

Problems procuring raw material inputs

Since domestic raw material sources are insufficient to supply the Indian
steel industry, a considerable amount of raw materials has to be imported.
For example, iron ore deposits are finite and there are problems in mining
sufficient amounts of it. India’s hard coal deposits are of low quality. For
this reason hard coal imports have increased in the last five years by a
total of 40% to nearly 30 million tons. Almost half of this is coking coal (the
remainder is power station coal). India is the world’s sixth biggest coal
importer. The rising output of electric steel is also leading to a sharp
increase in demand for steel scrap. Some 3.5 million tons of scrap have

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already been imported in 2006, compared with just 1 million tons in 2000.
In the coming years imports are likely to continue to increase thanks to
capacity increases.

Inefficient transport system

In India, insufficient freight capacity and a transport infrastructure that has

long been inadequate are becoming increasingly serious impediments to
economic development. Although the country has one of the world’s
biggest transport networks – the rail network is twice as extensive as
China’s – its poor quality hinders the efficient supply of goods. The story is
roughly the same for port facilities and airports. In the coming years a total
of USD 150 bn is to be invested in transport infrastructure, which offers
huge potential for the steel industry. In the medium to long term this capi-
tal expenditure will lay the foundations for seamless freight transport.

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OUTLOOK

THE outlook for the global steel industry in 2008 is stable, supported by strong
demand from emerging economies amid further consolidation among players
worldwide.

The scenario is quite same for the Indian steelmakers. And to keep pace with the
growing economy Indian companies will produced more and more steel. We can
even see several large acquisitions of global steel companies like Corus by Indian
steel giants. Going forward, India’s lower wages and favorable energy prices will
continue to promise substantial cost advantages compared to production facilities
in (Western) Europe or the US. The growth prospects of the client industries are
also very good. The deployment of modern production systems is increasingly
enabling India to improve the quality of its steel products and thus to enhance its
export prospects.

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