ne Rice Publis, ieee Garden, London WC2E 8LU nee Publishers, Inc.All sighs reserved Library of Congress Cataloging in-Publication Dats lesoraluuhortarnism / edited by Andreas Schedles, SFIOOL E386 2006 B19—de22 Brith Cataloguing Publication Data [Nang Pubic eco fr hs book ‘vale om tne Bits ity Pomed and bound ne United Ses of America “Toe pape sed nhs action meets he eens © ck American Nauonal Sadar for Permanence of Paper for Pte Litay Nato 3848192 54321 Contents of Tables and Figures Acknowledgments 1. The Logic of Electoral Authoritarianism, Andreas Schedler Part 1. Methodological Challenges ‘Drawing Boundaries: How to Craft Intermediate Regime Categories, Gerardo L. Munck 3 Observer Paradoxes: How to Assess Electoral Manipulation, Jonathan Hartiyn and Jennifer MeCoy Part 2 Regime and Opposition Dynamics 4 lite Ruprures: When Do Ruling Parties Split? Joy Langston 5 Tipping Games: When Do Opposition Parties Coalesce? ‘Nicolas van de Walle Part 3 The Electoral Battlefield ey 4 37 n 95 113vi Contents 8 Armed Ari Electoral Arena? John F. Clark 123 9 ‘Tragic Protest: Why Do Oppo: wo Tables and Figures Staffan I. Lindberg ee ee Part 4 Shifting Power Relations ure: How Does State Weakness 10 Autre: Ho Does Sate Wake 6 ions: How Do Parliamentary Powers (oral Arena? M. Steven Fish 181 rational Factors 12 Linkage and Leverage: How Do Internat Change Domestic Balances of Por? Steven Levitsky . ‘Tables and Lucan A. Way 5:1. Opposition Victories in Presidential Elections, Sub-Saharan Afica, 1991-2002 9 Part 5 Conclusion 8.1 Combined Freedom House Scores of Electoral Jeyond Electoral Authoitarianism: The Spectrum of Authoritarian Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1993-2003 137 "> Nomlemocraue Regimes, Ricard Sider 29 82 Bzanomic Peformance of Elctal now on Regimes in Sub-Saharan Afri 139 83 ped Coups, and Bibliography 238 140, The Contributors 251 OL ‘Saharan Africa, 1989June 2003151 ane 253 9.2. Trajectories of Electoral Regimes in Sub-Saharan Afriea, ‘About the Book 267 1990-2003 153 rout the 9.3. Trajectories of Africa’s ifty-three Electoral Authoritarian Regimes, June 2003 155 9.4 Political Contexts of Opposition Behavior in Electoral Autocracies, Sub-Sahar 159 Political Contexts of 98 1 185 112 vels of Democracy Countries at the Time of choice 187 sion of Changes in Freedom House Scores on Hypothesized Determinants 190 ‘Competitive Authoritarian Regime Outcomes in Five Regions, 1990-2005 21324 22 23 24 61 62 1 81 's Regime Property Space: An Adaptation Participation Scales lectoral Authoritarianism Peseta oe il Authoritarianism Under ‘Three Possible Consequences of Electoral Defeat Explaining Military Intervention Acknowledgments eee 4 authors, when turning in thei final book manuscripts after several rounds of detailed comments tary and revision, thank the editor and express their after the edited vol- my turn to thank the ious acceptance of my ighflying demands, their professionalism, thei friendship. ‘This book was conceived at a conference on “The Dynamics of Elec- {oral Authoritarianism” at CIDE in Mexico City. The meeting, an ovtstand. {Piexercise in critical deliberation deseribed by one participant as “perhaps the most stimulating conference in my life ican National Council for Science and Tes 36970-D and the National Endowment Fonim for Democratic Studies (IFDS) ‘B0€S fo both institutions. In particul JEDS, Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, as wel ‘Thomas W. Skladony, for their invaluable trust and st port, Andreas Schedler1 The Logic of Electoral Authoritarianism __ Andreas Schedler ‘Acspecter is haunting the developing world—the ‘tarianism. The good thing is ring off spe in patticular for those who fail to believe in scary ‘The bad thing is that the spect metaphor, electoral author- mn easy assignment, taphysical creatures, lectoral authoritari- (and reproduce) harsh realities torical perspective the authori- iothing new, conter ‘egimes take the time-honored practice of el ‘manipulation to new s book contains orignal comparative esearch into the confictive ion beween rulers and opposition partis inthe cental arena of strug, _ Be under electoral authoritarianism —the electra bateied, This tren, chapter addreses three analytical core issues with which the emngent tive study of electoral uthortanan regimes is pa al anthortarianis2. Electoral authoritarianism jan manipul ‘The Concept of Electoral Authoritarianism tnd yuld not happen at once, bi 's and pieces, ups an¢ he long na vom mn, the idea of global. rights and the year 1974. Three decades to be free (out of a total o xs are impressive. The breadth and ‘wave of democratic expansion is without precedent in system. However, today the flurry of opt rd ‘ime syndicate Al- ies of authoritarian rule explain the other part. eee The Logic of Electoral Authoritarianism 3 On the one hand, a significant number of old autocracies survive ferent parts of the world, untouched by the stirs of regime true, for example, fo igle-party regimes of Cuba, Korea, Vietnam, Eritrea, Libya, and Syria; for the n ‘stan, Burma (Myanmar), and Sudan; and for the the Arab world (des January 2005 leg: transition processes, and fair elections (as in parts of sub. Union), ended up in new Electoral a by holding regul le, elections are broadi (they are held under universal suffrage) as (opposition parties are allowed to parties, while denied victory, are mally open (opposition parties are not although they may experience repressive t ‘mittent ways). Overal © (opposition and seats), and min- bject to massive repression, selective and inter- U contests are subject to state that they do not qualify ion may come under many guises, ning the troubling un ‘eutcomes. Rulers may devise discriminatory el sition parties and candidates from entering the Upon their political rights and civil liber ‘media and campaign finance, impose form: tions on their supporters, coerce or coreup tion camp, or simply redistribute votes and sea An incomplete list of contemporary examples of cl fegimes (as of early 2006) includes, in the former Sovi ‘Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, . and Tajikistan; in North i ria, Egypr, Tunisia, and Yemen; in sub- ina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Tanzania, Togo, and Zambia; and in South and Asia, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Given thei cont mcrae procedures and authoritarian practices, egies have unsettled the conceptual rou -make sense of the inee The Logic of Electoral Authoritarianism 5 4 Electoral authoritarianism regimes, scholars ‘appings but not the substance of effective democratic partic- ni” (Marshall and Jaggers 2002: 12). They have analyzed them as mes that practice “democracy as deceptio Set up, to quote from John Stuart Mi days of the third wave of le emergence of political cratic nor democratizing bt depart from the forms of acy (such as checks and balances, bureaucrat indiciary), but they do conduct free and fair Authoritarian regimes don’ uum norms, the notion of “diminished subtypes” o ‘When aplied vo nodemoerati contents, ae it weakens our sense of sharpening our grasp of dem it auiontaran reali oe also Lenisky and Way 2002 Howard and Roessler 2006).5 aeserb nondemsimts e brid regimes. If we describe nondemocratic regimes as in ‘ of domocrary, however dein, we commit the methodological si af “conceptual stretching” (Sartori 1984). Conscious ofthis menacing pit substandard electoral regimes some authors have been treating the substandard mes ht inhabit the contemporary world as genvine midpoints between democracy regimes that re elections as the official route of access to exe As the incipient ‘tered its attention on the controve electoral democracies (see S frontline that separates them together in ie that separates them from here I wish to examine the neighbors, grouped ‘The key question is: ive are electoral authoritarian regimes within the broader ‘spectrum of nondemocratic regimes” (see Snyder, Chapter 13 in thie wut lime)? Surely, the use of democratic forms and rhet ‘tegimes is nothing new. Even bei political elections, the core ‘almost universally in use. As Rouquié stated in the preface to 1910s elections were “held in nearly ii) In addition, almost all re ind “the gray zone” (Carothers 200: express the idea of genuinely mixed regimes situated in the messy middle ne new form a To recognize them as such, a instances of monde trai goverance, As scholars have een itaducing sonceps sac a seudedemocracy” (Diamond Linz and Lipset 19988), “ogre dt top” Brockor 200.24 | tnd Way 2002) heya mee ran eg ca ' Conta they have esr them a instances of mondemocste let | ive and leg- Ory as well as comps they take recourse to