US Web order daily rates (fwd 30 dma)

Datetime (PST) Order# days orders rate

12/06/2002 00:00 4292 55 379 6.9
01/30/2003 00:00 4671 29.00 145 5.0 55.0
02/28/2003 00:00 4816 31.00 160 5.1 29.0
03/31/2003 00:00 4975 30.00 160 5.3 31.0
04/30/2003 00:00 5135 31.00 170 5.5 30.0
05/31/2003 00:00 5305 23.00 130 5.6 31.0
06/23/2003 00:00 5435 47.00 248 5.3 23.0
08/09/2003 00:00 5683 38.00 256 6.74 47.0
09/16/2003 00:00 5939 11.00 89 8.09 38.0
09/27/2003 00:00 6028 26.00 130 5.00 11.0
10/23/2003 00:00 6158 40.00 454 11.35 26.0
12/02/2003 00:00 6612 24.00 300 12.50 40.0
12/26/2003 00:00 6912 35.00 375 10.71 24.0
01/16/2004 00:00 7143 14.00 144 10.29 21.0
01/27/2004 00:00 7248 35.00 335 9.57 11.0
01/30/2004 00:00 7287 32.00 296 9.25 3.0
03/02/2004 00:00 7583 7.00 59 8.43 32.0
03/09/2004 00:00 7642 41.00 347 8.46 7.0
04/19/2004 00:00 7989 49.00 425 8.67 41.0
06/07/2004 00:00 8414 33.00 311 9.42 49.0
06/12/2004 00:00 8472 28.00 253 9.04 5.0
07/10/2004 00:00 8725 52.00 530 10.19 28.0
08/31/2004 00:00 9255 57.00 564 9.89 52.0
10/27/2004 00:00 9819 30.00 353 11.77 57.0
11/26/2004 00:00 10172 30.00 707 23.57 30.0
12/09/2004 00:00 10459 27.00 564 20.89 13.0
12/26/2004 00:00 10879 28.00 436 15.57 17.0
01/05/2005 00:00 11023 33.00 413 12.52 10.0
01/23/2005 00:00 11315 34.00 530 15.59 18.0
02/07/2005 00:00 11436 35.00 663 18.94 15.0
02/26/2005 00:00 11845 31.00 454 14.65 19.0
03/02/2005 00:00 11925 33.00 442 13.39 4.0
03/14/2005 00:00 12099 32.00 459 14.34 12.0
03/29/2005 00:00 12299 31.00 475 15.32 15.0
04/04/2005 00:00 12367 30.00 539 17.97 6.0
04/10/2005 00:00 12437 31.00 581 18.74 6.0
04/15/2005 00:00 12558 26.00 460 17.69 5.0
04/25/2005 00:00 12699 16.00 319 19.94 10.0
04/29/2005 00:00 12774 34.00 574 16.88 4.0
05/04/2005 00:00 12906 29.00 442 15.24 5.0
05/11/2005 00:00 13018 34.00 507 14.91 7.0
06/02/2005 00:00 13348 26.00 368 14.15 22.0
06/14/2005 00:00 13525 35.00 469 13.40 12.0
06/28/2005 00:00 13716 34.00 447 13.15 14.0
07/13/2005 00:00 13909 34.00 475 13.97 15.0
07/19/2005 00:00 13994 32.00 453 14.16 6.0
08/01/2005 00:00 14163 28.00 391 13.96 13.0
08/07/2005 00:00 14256 31.48 412 13.09 6.0
08/16/2005 00:00 14384 34.75 564 16.22 9.0
08/20/2005 00:00 14447 30.75 501 16.28 4.0
08/24/2005 06:42 14494 31.72 563 17.74 4.3
08/29/2005 00:00 14554 31.57 584 18.51 4.7
09/07/2005 11:25 14668 28.88 577 19.97 9.5
09/13/2005 21:00 14827 30.53 569 18.64 6.4
09/19/2005 18:03 14948 31.62 599 18.96 5.9
09/24/2005 23:58 15057 32.61 614 18.84 5.2
09/29/2005 13:43 15138 28.03 533 19.01 4.6
10/06/2005 08:32 15245 28.34 556 19.61 6.8
10/14/2005 09:40 15396 28.02 557 19.89 8.0
10/21/2005 09:00 15547 28.11 569 20.23 7.0
10/27/2005 14:30 15671 32.74 854 26.10 6.2
Web order daily rate
11/03/2005 16:42 15800 28.79 899 31.23 7.1
70
11/11/2005 10:02 15953 34.18 1756 51.39 7.7
11/18/2005 11:41 16116 27.11 1594 58.79 7.1 60
11/25/2005 12:07 16338 28.46 1898 66.69 7.0
11/29/2005 08:10 16525 32.36 1964 60.70 3.8 50
12/02/2005 11:40 16700 29.21 1790 61.27 3.1 40
12/09/2005 15:19 17198 33.84 1580 46.68 7.2
12/15/2005 14:15 17710 34.64 1219 35.20 6.0 30
12/23/2005 23:08 18236 32.51 815 25.07 8.4
20
12/31/2005 16:42 18489 30.65 667 21.77 7.7
01/06/2006 11:48 18621 32.08 677 21.11 5.8 10
01/12/2006 11:26 18778 33.82 678 20.05 6.0
01/19/2006 05:30 18929 27.07 528 19.49 6.8 0
01/25/2006 11:17 19050 28.87 547 18.95 6.2 1 0 00 00 0 00 0 11 10 0 00 00 0 00 01 1 11 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 0
01/31/2006 08:18 19156 30.11 567 18.84 5.9 2 1 23 45 6 89 9 02 21 1 13 34 6 67 80 1 22 11 2 23 33 4 44 44 5 56 66 7 7
//////////////////////////////////////////////
02/07/2006 13:42 19298 31.18 565 18.11 7.2
02/15/2006 07:08 19456 30.39 510 16.79 7.7
02/23/2006 08:05 19597 29.02 464 15.98 8.0
03/02/2006 10:53 19724 30.43 458 15.06 7.1 Short term forecasting (next 2 months)
03/10/2006 18:05 19863 34.85 502 14.41 8.3 Datetime (PST) ord# yr ago days
03/17/2006 16:28 19966 33.61 474 14.11 6.9 03/17/2006 16:28 19966 12151
03/24/2006 08:30 20061 32.98 479 14.52 6.7 03/24/2006 08:30 20061 12241 6.67
04/01/2006 21:08 20182 30.71 431 14.05 8.5 04/01/2006 21:08 20182 12345 8.53
04/07/2006 23:50 20273 31.70 444 14.01 6.1 04/07/2006 23:50 20273 12406 6.11
04/14/2006 14:29 20365 31.86 458 14.37 6.6 04/14/2006 14:29 20365 12548 6.61
04/20/2006 07:00 20441 33.52 512 15.29 5.7 04/20/2006 07:00 20441 12638 5.69
04/26/2006 08:00 20540 27.48 413 15.03 6.0 04/26/2006 13:08 20530 12721 6.26
05/02/2006 14:10 20613 30.04 472 15.73 6.3 05/02/2006 14:10 20613 12871 6.04
05/09/2006 16:45 20717 30.01 489 16.31 7.1 05/09/2006 16:45 20717 13003 7.11
05/16/2006 11:02 20823 30.86 511 16.57 6.8 05/16/2006 11:02 20823 13101 6.76
05/23/2006 19:35 20953 31.35 509 16.24 7.4 05/23/2006 19:35 20953 13212 7.36
06/01/2006 15:01 21086 30.36 491 16.18 8.8 06/01/2006 15:01 21086 13343 8.81
06/08/2006 16:54 21206 29.02 453 15.61 7.1 06/08/2006 16:54 21206 13449 7.08
06/16/2006 07:38 21334 32.41 485 14.96 7.6 06/16/2006 07:38 21334 13558 7.61
06/24/2006 04:00 21462 29.10 423 14.52 7.8 06/24/2006 04:00 21462 13666 7.85
07/01/2006 23:45 21577 30.34 440 14.50 7.8 07/01/2006 23:45 21577 13767 7.82
07/07/2006 17:25 21659 24.61 358 14.53 5.7 07/07/2006 17:25 21659 13841 5.74
07/14/2006 04:35 21753 33.31 538 16.14 6.5 07/14/2006 04:35 21753 13926 6.47
07/18/2006 17:26 21819 28.77 472 16.40 4.5 07/18/2006 17:26 21819 13990 4.54
07/23/2006 06:17 21885 24.24 406 16.75 4.5 07/23/2006 06:17 21885 14048 4.54
08/01/2006 08:00 22017 30.33 546 18.00 9.1 08/01/2006 08:00 22017 14168 9.07
08/16/2006 12:00 22291 15.17 272 17.94 15.2 08/16/2006 12:00 22291 14392 15.17
08/31/2006 16:00 22563 31.00 6.6 08/31/2006 16:00 22563 14577 15.17

Short term forecasting (n

26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun 18

rate yr ago
 Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions

0 00 11 1 10 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 00 0 00 01 1 11 11 1 11 11 1 11 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 00 00 0 0 0 0 00 00 0 00 00 0
6 78 01 2 21 12 2 33 34 4 44 45 5 66 67 7 88 88 8 89 9 99 90 0 00 11 1 11 22 2 22 11 1 11 22 2 33 33 4 44 44 5 5 5 5 66 66 7 77 77 8
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

rate
orecasting (next 2 months)
orders % rel rate yr ago events
interp 7/14 21753 14.50 22.8 -36%
95 6.0% 14.21 13.40 interp 7/23 21885 14.50 23.0 -37%
121 16.0% 14.17 12.22 EoQ project 8/16 22290 18.00 23.5 -24%
91 48.9% 14.87 9.99 BootC
92 -35.4% 13.94 21.57 pre-Tiger
76 -15.3% 13.31 15.70
89 7.0% 14.21 13.29 MBP 17"
84 -44.4% 13.87 24.93 Tiger shp
104 -21.0% 14.57 18.44
106 7.2% 15.64 14.59 MacBk
130 17.8% 17.73 15.06
133 1.6% 15.05 14.81 May
121 13.1% 17.04 15.06 U2 iPod
128 17.0% 16.79 14.35
 128 18.9% 16.34 13.74
115 13.3% 14.65 12.92 EoQ
82 11.6% 14.36 12.87
94 10.8% 14.50 13.09
66 2.3% 14.52 14.19 2.00 (interpolation)
66 13.5% 14.54 12.81 2.00 (interpolation)
132 10.4% 14.56 13.19 Jul est 14.50 (current trend and planned events)
274 21.9% 18.06 14.81 1.80 (interpolation)
272 47.8% 17.94 12.14 Aug est 18.00 (long-term trends and seasonality)

Short term forecasting (next 2 months)

28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun 25-Jun 2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug

rate yr ago events

13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj acc adj err
Dec-02 4447 7.2 5.5 30% 3% 42%
Jan-03 4659 7.0 5.9 18% 9% 60% 14%
Feb-03 4814 5.1 6.2 -17% -11% 43% -10%
Mar-03 4970 5.1 6.4 -19% -11% 23% -14%
Apr-03 5131 5.3 6.5 -19% -9% 4% -16%
May-03 5298 5.5 6.7 -18% -12% -14% -10%
Jun-03 5466 5.6 6.9 -20% -12% -34% -13%
Jul-03 5626 5.3 7.1 -26% -9% -60% -30%
Aug-03 5814 6.2 7.3 -15% 1% -75% -28%
Sep-03 6033 7.2 7.5 -4% 3% -79% -13%
Oct-03 6217 6.1 7.7 -22% -3% -101% -32%
Nov-03 6561 11.4 8.0 42% 22% -59% 31%
Dec-03 6934 12.3 8.5 44% 17% -15% 40%
Jan-04 7252 10.5 9.1 15% 12% 1% 6%
Feb-04 7542 9.6 9.4 1% -7% 2% 13%
Mar-04 7801 8.5 9.9 -14% -12% -12% -3%
Apr-04 8060 8.5 10.1 -16% -12% -28% -7%
May-04 8323 8.7 10.7 -19% -15% -47% -7%
Jun-04 8607 9.4 11.1 -15% -13% -62% -3%
Jul-04 8898 9.6 11.3 -15% -11% -77% -7%
Aug-04 9210 10.3 11.5 -10% -3% -88% -12%
Sep-04 9508 9.8 11.6 -15% -4% -103% -19%
Oct-04 9812 10.0 12.1 -17% -9% -120% -14%
Nov-04 10168 11.7 12.5 -6% 10% -126% -28%
Dec-04 10879 23.4 13.9 69% 35% -57% 52%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 15.0 0% 7% -57% -12% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.5 3% -3% -55% 9% 100.0 200% 100%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 15.7 -4% -9% -59% 8%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 15.9 -6% -10% -65% 6% 75%
80.0 160%
May-05 13252 17.4 15.9 9% -7% -56% 24% 50%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 16.2 -11% -13% -67% 2% 60.0 120%
25%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 16.5 -20% -15% -87% -9%
Aug-05 14512 13.9 16.5 -16% -8% -103% -13% 40.0 80% 0%
Sep-05 15057 18.0 16.9 6% 0% -97% 10% -25%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 17.4 8% -3% -88% 17% 20.0 40%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 17.9 46% 23% -42% 36% -50%
0.0 0%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 18.3 230% 90% 188% 195% -75%
Jan-06 19156 21.8 18.7 16% 10% 204% 9% -20.0 -40% -100%
Feb-06 19727 18.8 19.1 -1% -3% 203% 2% D F A J A OD F A J AOD F A J A OD F A J AOD F A J A OD F D F A JJ S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M
Mar-06 20184 15.0 19.4 -22% -14% 180% -13% e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e e e p uu e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a
Apr-06 20610 14.1 19.6 -28% -17% 152% -19% c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b c b r- nl p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r-
May-06 21086 15.7 19.8 -21% -12% 131% -14%
Jun-06 21577 16.2 20.1 -20% -15% 112% -7% est rate rate regr %diff acc adj err
Jul-06 22017 14.5 19.9 -27% -20% 84% -13%
Aug-06 22563 18.0 19.7 -9% -8% 76% 0% Quarterly orders and revenues Stock valuation
Sep-06 23152 19.4 19.5 0% 0% 75% 0% 10000 200
Oct-06 23825 22.2 22.7 -3% -3% 73% 0%
Nov-06 24691 28.5 23.3 23% 23% 96% 0% 175
Dec-06 26095 46.3 24.4 90% 90% 185% 0% 8000
150
Jan-07 26991 29.5 26.7 10% 10% 196% 0%
Feb-07 27814 27.1 27.8 -3% -3% 193% 0% 6000 125
Mar-07 28556 24.5 28.6 -14% -14% 179% 0% 100
Apr-07 29283 24.0 29.0 -17% -17% 162% 0%
4000 75
May-07 30063 25.7 29.3 -12% -12% 149% 0%
Jun-07 30828 25.2 29.8 -15% -15% 134% 0% 50
Jul-07 31564 24.3 30.2 -20% -20% 115% 0% 2000
Aug-07 32410 27.9 30.4 -8% -8% 106% 0% 25
Sep-07 33348 30.9 31.0 0% 0% 106% 0% 0 -
Oct-07 34290 31.1 31.9 -3% -3% 103% 0% D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
Nov-07 35505 40.1 32.6 23% 23% 126% 0% ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
Dec-07 37467 64.7 34.1 90% 90% 216% 0% - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - - - 03 - - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - -
Jan-08 38700 40.7 36.8 10% 10% 226% 0%
Feb-08 39828 37.2 38.1 -3% -3% 224% 0% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc
Mar-08 40845 33.5 39.2 -14% -14% 209% 0%

Quarterly / financials
Month orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opex dev g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap
Dec-02 713 1472 2065 529 1269 2400 7% 1.0% 27.6% 420 2612 1850 29 1.3% 4 26.2% 722 0.02 0.12 7.16 57.95 42.95 7.93 5.88 -71% 6.18 -35% 5.17
Mar-03 524 1475 2818 582 1403 2411 -1% 5.7% 28.3% 419 3410 1116 23 0.9% 6 28.0% 724 0.02 0.09 7.07 78.41 32.22 9.08 3.73 -61% 6.25 -40% 5.12
Jun-03 496 1545 3115 640 1550 2423 8% 6.0% 27.7% 419 3507 1038 17 0.5% 7 27.0% 728 0.03 0.07 9.53 131.18 33.89 45.24 11.69 -40% 6.24 8% 6.94
Sep-03 567 1715 3025 704 1713 2434 19% 4.0% 26.6% 425 3396 1170 10 0.3% 12 29.1% 742 0.04 0.10 10.36 101.26 27.29 41.11 11.08 306% -37% 6.15 43% 7.69
Dec-03 901 2006 2227 774 1894 2446 36% 2.6% 26.7% 462 3724 1067 9 0.3% 23 27.8% 745 0.08 0.17 10.69 64.13 16.41 25.55 6.54 412% 35% 6.43 49% 7.96
Mar-04 867 1909 2201 852 2093 2458 29% 1.8% 27.8% 468 3158 1436 12 0.3% 18 24.3% 756 0.07 0.22 13.52 61.62 14.76 33.94 8.13 247% 143% 6.07 91% 10.23
Jun-04 806 2014 2500 937 2314 2469 30% 1.7% 27.8% 479 3120 1846 13 0.4% 24 25.8% 785 0.09 0.28 16.27 57.85 13.56 35.36 8.29 237% 287% 6.32 71% 12.78
Sep-04 902 2350 2607 1031 2557 2481 37% 3.1% 27.0% 501 2969 2495 19 0.6% 41 27.0% 806 0.14 0.38 19.38 51.05 13.47 33.19 8.76 250% 271% 6.78 87% 15.62
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1134 2826 2493 74% 3.8% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 0.9% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.65 32.20 49.42 18.58 37.61 14.14 340% 291% 7.69 201% 26.99
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1247 3124 2505 70% 1.6% 29.8% 566 2254 4803 33 1.3% 145 33.3% 857.01 0.34 0.92 41.67 45.49 22.39 36.50 17.97 357% 317% 8.23 208% 35.71
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1372 3453 2516 75% 1.0% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 2.0% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.68 19.12 23.39 14.58 323% 327% 8.74 126% 31.68
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1509 3817 2528 57% -0.2% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 1.9% 152 31.8% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.27 25.58 30.64 21.03 173% 279% 9.53 177% 46.45
Dec-05 3439 5749 1672 1673 4251 2541 65% 0.8% 27.2% 814 4150 4557 81 2.3% 266 32.0% 874 0.65 1.73 71.89 41.49 30.71 35.74 26.46 84% 166% 9.96 123% 62.85
Mar-06 1688 4359 2583 1840 4699 2553 4359 34% 4.0% 29.8% 768 6346 1880 76 1.8% 195 32.2% 879 0.47 1.86 62.72 33.70 23.40 28.67 19.91 38% 103% 9.36 51% 55.10
Jun-06 1393 4250 3050 2024 5193 2566 4281 21% 3.3% 28.8% 768 6581 1974 114 1.8% 182 32.0% 890 0.44 1.92 57.27 29.75 19.39 24.76 16.13 17% 60% 9.61 56% 50.97
Sep-06 1575 4568 2900 2227 5740 2578 4871 24% 3.0% 28.5% 742 6984 2073 165 2.5% 232 32.0% 900 0.55 2.10 81.72 38.99 25.00 34.18 21.92 45% 46% 10.06 52% 73.55
Dec-06 2943 7209 2450 2450 6344 2590 7271 25% 3.0% 28.5% 1020 7894 2176 175 2.5% 387 32.0% 923 0.89 2.34 87.63 37.44 25.00 32.77 21.89 38% 35% 10.91 22% 80.87
Mar-07 2461 6404 2602 2695 7013 2602 5792 47% 3.0% 29.5% 982 8333 2285 197 2.5% 353 32.0% 931 0.81 2.68 94.36 35.21 25.00 30.95 21.98 73% 44% 11.40 50% 87.87
Jun-07 2272 5941 2615 2964 7751 2615 5583 40% 3.0% 28.0% 891 8805 2399 208 2.5% 314 32.0% 940 0.71 2.95 102.82 34.81 25.00 30.77 22.10 63% 53% 11.93 80% 96.60
Sep-07 2520 6621 2627 3261 8567 2627 6078 45% 3.0% 28.0% 872 9566 2519 220 2.5% 385 32.0% 948 0.86 3.27 112.39 34.38 25.00 30.48 22.16 57% 56% 12.75 38% 106.54
Dec-07 4119 9061 2200 3587 9469 2640 8965 26% 3.0% 28.0% 1191 10721 2645 239 2.5% 507 32.0% 956 1.13 3.51 119.54 34.10 25.00 30.12 22.08 27% 50% 13.98 36% 114.33
Mar-08 3378 8960 2652 3946 10466 2652 7497 40% 3.0% 28.0% 1251 11579 2778 268 2.5% 488 32.0% 965 1.08 3.77 131.29 34.78 25.00 30.84 22.17 33% 41% 14.88 39% 126.69
Jun-08 3067 8174 2665 4341 11568 2665 7237 38% 3.0% 28.0% 1078 12365 2916 289 2.5% 480 32.0% 974 1.05 4.11 138.81 33.75 25.00 29.93 22.17 48% 39% 15.70 35% 135.15
Sep-08 3402 9109 2678 4775 12786 2678 7570 38% 3.0% 28.0% 1062 13511 3062 309 2.5% 575 32.0% 982 1.24 4.50 151.73 33.75 25.00 30.00 22.22 44% 38% 16.87 35% 149.05
Dec-08 5560 11121 2000 5253 14132 2690 10972 23% 3.0% 28.0% 1392 14906 3215 338 2.5% 659 32.0% 991 1.41 4.78 161.38 33.75 25.00 29.93 22.17 25% 36% 18.28 35% 159.95
Mar-09 4561 12328 2703 5779 15620 2703 9528 38% 3.0% 28.0% 1552 16341 3376 373 2.5% 727 32.0% 1000 1.55 5.25 177.24 33.75 25.00 30.00 22.22 44% 39% 19.72 35% 177.25
5.55 35%
0.4357 6.07 35%
22431 6.46 35%
7.09 35%
 6/29 7/13 8/11 8/29 9/14 10/5 10/14 11/3 11/18 11/30 12/15 12/31 1/6 1/12 1/19 1/31 2/7
F05Q3 .32 .38
F05Q4 .34 .35 .32 .32 .35 .34 .39
F06Q1 .56 .56 .55 .54 .56 .55 .59 .57 .60 .68 .87 .81 .81 .71 .68
F06Q2 .51 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50 .51 .52 .52 .58 .69 .67 .66 .65 .59 .59 .60
F06Q3 .46 .47 .47 .47 .47 .49 .48 .48 .54 .59 .58 .58 .56 .58 .62 .62
F06Q4 .53 .53 .53 .57 .62 .63 .63 .60 .60 .63 .63
F07Q1 1.05 .92 .92
F07Q2
F07Q3
fwd12m 1.73 1.86 1.85 1.83 1.87 1.86 2.12 2.10 2.14 2.37 2.77 2.69 2.68 2.52 2.82 2.76 2.77

1.10

1.00

.90

.80

.70

.60

.50

.40

.30
Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06

F05Q3 F05Q4 F06Q1 F06Q2 F06Q3 F06Q

 2/23 3/2 3/17 4/1 4/14 4/20 5/2 5/9 5/23 6/1 6/16 7/1 7/14

.55 .50 .50 .50 .50 .50

.61 .60 .58 .57 .57 .54 .52 .45 .44 .44 .44 .44 .44
.64 .60 .60 .60 .60 .65 .66 .64 .63 .59 .55 .55 .55
.92 .87 .85 .84 .85 .83 .83 .80 .79 .85 .88 .89 .89
.89 .89 .86 .86 .83 .82 .80 .81

2.72 2.58 2.52 2.51 2.51 2.91 2.89 2.75 2.72 2.70 2.70 2.68 2.68

3.20

3.00

2.80

2.60

2.40

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06

2 F06Q3 F06Q4 F07Q1 F07Q2 F07Q3 fwd12m

 3.20

3.00

2.80

2.60

2.40

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60
Oct-06
 iPod iPod iPod New Switch iPod accs iTMS iPod
iPod unit inst switch iPod CPU life iPod /user /user iPod accs iTMS
Date units grw base base usrs units cycl ASP /year /year rev rev rev
Dec-03 0.7 170% 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.027 1.9 0.357 37.5 29.1 0.256 0.028 0.019
Mar-04 0.8 320% 2.5 0.8 0.7 0.010 2.5 0.345 47.1 37.5 0.264 0.033 0.027
Jun-04 0.9 268% 3.2 1.2 0.7 0.051 2.2 0.325 47.9 42.0 0.249 0.036 0.037
Sep-04 2.0 370% 5.0 2.0 1.8 0.010 2.4 0.296 47.2 41.5 0.537 0.051 0.047
Dec-04 4.6 469% 9.3 5.1 4.2 0.2 2.3 0.274 43.2 38.4 1.211 0.096 0.081
Mar-05 5.3 486% 14.2 8.6 5.0 0.2 2.4 0.236 34.3 36.8 1.014 0.089 0.127
Jun-05 6.2 560% 19.9 12.5 5.7 0.2 2.6 0.214 28.7 31.8 1.103 0.111 0.130
Sep-05 6.5 409% 25.5 16.3 5.6 0.3 2.8 0.202 24.6 27.7 1.212 0.127 0.138
Dec-05 14.0 287% 37.5 28.0 12.1 0.1 2.6 0.195 24.0 26.0 2.906 0.256 0.235
Apr-06 8.5 176% 43.9 34.0 6.4 0.0 2.6 0.197 23.2 23.6 1.714 0.240 0.245
Jul-06 8.2 106% 49.6 39.6 5.7 0.1 2.6 0.195 22.0 23.5 1.426 0.238 0.301
Sep-06 8.0 72% 54.7 44.3 5.1 0.2 2.9 0.200 21.5 23.5 1.708 0.264 0.310
Dec-06 16.3 28% 64.6 53.8 9.9 0.4 2.5 0.200 22.0 23.0 3.357 0.428 0.367
Mar-07 9.1 18% 69.1 57.6 4.5 0.5 2.7 0.200 22.0 23.0 1.821 0.378 0.390
Jun-07 8.7 13% 73.3 61.1 4.2 0.5 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 1.536 0.368 0.405
Sep-07 8.7 10% 77.2 64.2 3.9 0.4 2.8 0.200 22.0 22.5 1.841 0.388 0.436
Dec-07 18.1 9% 84.9 71.2 7.8 0.5 2.6 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.715 0.540 0.482
Mar-08 10.1 10% 88.9 74.1 4.0 0.7 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.032 0.488 0.501
Jun-08 9.8 11% 92.5 76.6 3.7 0.6 iPod market
2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 1.737 0.474 0.513
Sep-08 9.7 11% 15.0
96.0 78.9 3.4 0.5 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.042 0.492 0.542 150
Dec-08 20.2 12% 102.8 84.6 6.8 0.6 2.6 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.131 0.638 0.582
12.5 125
Mar-09 11.4 12% 106.6 87.0 3.8 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.283 0.585 0.601
Jun-09 11.0 12% 10.0 110.1 88.9 3.5 0.7 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 1.981 0.570 0.612 100
Sep-09 10.9 12% 113.5 90.6 3.3 0.5 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.280 0.588 0.640
Dec-09 22.5 12% 120.07.5 95.8 6.6 0.7 2.6 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.605 0.733 0.679 75
Mar-10 12.8 12% 123.9 97.8 3.9 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.572 0.680 0.698
Jun-10 12.4 12% 127.55.0 99.3 3.6 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.264 0.666 0.710 50
Sep-10 12.2 12% 131.02.5 100.7 3.4 0.6 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.551 0.684 0.739 25
Dec-10 25.2 12% 137.7 105.7 6.7 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 5.137 0.830 0.779
Mar-11 14.4 12% 141.80.0 107.5 4.1 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 2.898 0.779 0.799 0
Jun-11 14.0 12% 145.7D J 108.7 D J D 3.9J D J D 0.8J D2.7J 0.200
D J D 22.0
J D J 22.5
D J 2.585
D J D J D 0.812
0.766 J D
Sep-11 13.7 12% 149.4e u109.9 e u e 3.7u e u e 0.7u e2.7u 0.200
e u e 22.0
u e u22.5
e u 2.857
e u e0.785
u e 0.842
u e
Dec-11 28.2 12% 156.5c n114.9 c n c 7.2l c n c0.9n c2.7n 0.200
c n c 22.0
n c n22.5
c n 5.729
c n c0.934
n c 0.884
n c
Mar-12 16.3 12% 160.9 116.5 4.4 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.262 0.884 0.907
Jun-12 15.8 12% 165.1 iPod 117.6
inst 4.2
base 0.9 switch
iPod 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5usrs
New iPod 2.943 Switch
0.873 0.921
CPU
Sep-12 15.4 12% 169.2 118.7 4.0 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.197 units
base 0.894 0.954
Dec-12 31.4 12% 176.9 123.8 7.8 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 6.385 1.046 0.999
Mar-13 18.3 12% 181.7 125.3 4.8 1.0 2.7Music0.200 $$22.0 22.5 3.666 0.998 1.023
Jun-13 17.8 12% 50 186.3 126.3 4.6 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.342 0.990 1.0410.500
Sep-13 17.3 12% 190.7 127.2 4.4 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.574 1.013 1.075
Dec-13 35.1 12% 40 199.2 132.7 8.5 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 7.107 1.168 1.1250.400
Mar-14 20.5 12% 30 204.4 134.1 5.2 1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.112 1.123 1.1510.300
Jun-14 20.0 12% 20 209.6 135.0 5.1 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.783 1.117 1.1710.200
Sep-14 19.4 12% 10 214.4 135.8 4.8 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 3.990 1.143 1.2080.100
Dec-14 39.0 12% 223.7 141.6 9.3 1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 7.903 1.303 1.262
0 0.000
Mar-15 23.0 12% 229.4 143.0 5.8 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.604 1.261 1.292
Jun-15 22.4 12% 235.1 D J D J D
143.9 J D
5.7 J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J
1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.270 1.258 1.315 D J D
Sep-15 21.7 12% 240.4 e u e144.6
u e u 5.3e u e 1.0
u e u2.7e 0.200
u e u 22.0
e u e 22.5
u e 4.450
u e u e u1.355
1.286 e
Dec-15 43.4 12% 250.6 c n c n c l
150.8 10.2c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n
1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 8.778 1.451 1.414 c n c

iPod ASP accs /user iTMS /user

/year /year
 10 0.100
0 0.000
D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c
Mar-16 25.7 12% 257.0 152.2 6.3 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 5.146 1.412 1.447
iPod ASP accs /user iTMS /user
Jun-16 25.1 12% 263.2 153.0 6.2 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.809 1.412 1.473
/year /year
Sep-16 24.2 12% 269.1 153.6 5.9 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 4.956 1.444 1.516
Dec-16 48.2 12% 280.3 160.3 11.2 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 9.741 1.614 1.581
Mar-17 28.7 12% 287.3 161.6 7.0 1.3 2.7 0.200 22.0 22.5 5.744 1.579 1.617
 iTMS Mac PC Mac Mac Mac New Mac Mac prfls SW
+accs Mac unit PC CPU inst iPod Market 1y halo to life CPU /usr /usr
rev units grw CPUs grw base inst bs share % Mac cycl ASP /yr /yr
0.047 0.83 0% 38.5 8% 12.2 1.3 2.3% 17.6% 0.1 4.0 1.505 64.8 58.0
0.060 0.75 5% 34.1 4% 12.2 1.7 2.3% 12.1% 0.0 4.0 1.506 69.0 60.1
0.073 0.88 10% 34.7 7% 12.3 2.0 2.3% 15.0% 0.1 4.0 1.509 72.9 63.8
0.098 0.84 9% 34.7 5% 12.4 3.0 2.3% 8.5% 0.0 4.0 1.496 77.4 67.0
0.177 1.05 13% 41.5 8% 12.7 4.2 2.4% 9.7% 0.3 4.0 1.500 81.6 66.4
0.216 1.07 22% 37.5 10% 13.0 5.6 2.6% 10.8% 0.4 4.0 1.461 83.7 69.4
0.241 1.18 28% 38.2 10% 13.4 7.4 2.7% 8.9% 0.4 4.0 1.426 85.6 78.5
0.265 1.24 38% 39.2 13% 13.8 9.1 2.9% 8.5% 0.4 4.1 1.384 85.1 82.4
0.491 1.25 35% 46.1 11% 14.3 9.5 2.9% 5.2% 0.4 4.0 1.348 84.0 88.2
0.485 1.11 25% 40.5 8% 14.6 9.8 2.9% 2.5% 0.3 4.1 1.353 80.5 91.8
0.539 1.34 20% 40.8 7% 15.0 10.0 3.0% 1.4% 0.4 4.1 1.345 77.0 88.0
0.574 1.50 15% 41.2 5% 15.6 10.4 3.1% 0.9% 0.6 4.1 1.340 76.0 88.0
0.795 1.71 19% 47.9 4% 16.4 10.8 3.3% 1.5% 0.8 4.0 1.340 78.0 90.0
0.768 1.70 31% 42.5 5% 17.2 11.5 3.6% 2.5% 0.8 4.1 1.350 80.0 93.0
0.772 1.90 38% 43.3 6% 18.1 12.2 3.9% 3.0% 0.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 97.0
0.824 1.97 40% 44.5 8% 19.1 13.0 4.1% 3.0% 0.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 99.0
1.022 2.39 41% 51.8 8% 20.3 13.7 4.4% 3.0% 1.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
0.989 2.49 40% 45.9 8% 21.8 14.7 4.7% 3.0% 1.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
0.987 2.65 39% 46.8 8% 23.2 Mac 5.0%
15.9 market 3.0% 1.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
150
1.034 12.5%
2.59 39% 48.1 8% 24.5 17.1 5.3% 3.0% 1.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0100
1.220 3.23 38% 55.9 8% 26.3 18.1 5.6% 3.0% 1.8 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
125 10.0%
1.186 3.45 36% 49.6 8% 28.3 19.6 5.9% 3.0% 2.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.080
1.182
100 3.55 35% 50.5 8% 30.3 21.2 6.3% 3.0% 2.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.228 7.5%
3.35 34% 51.9 8% 32.1 22.8 6.5% 3.0% 1.8 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.060
75
1.412 4.21 33% 60.4 8% 34.4 24.2 6.9% 3.0% 2.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.379 5.0%
4.56 31% 53.5 8% 37.1 26.1 7.2% 3.0% 2.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.040
50
1.376 4.60 30% 54.5 8% 39.6 28.2 7.6% 3.0% 2.6 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.423
25 2.5%
4.24 30% 56.1 8% 41.9 30.2 7.8% 3.0% 2.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.020
1.609 5.34 29% 65.2 8% 44.8 32.0 8.2% 3.0% 2.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
01.578 0.0%
5.83 28% 57.8 8% 48.1 34.3 8.6% 3.0% 3.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.00
D J D J D 1.578 5.81 27%D J S58.9
M S 8%A S51.2
M S M 36.9
S M S8.9%
M S M3.0% S M S3.1M S4.1M 1.350
S M S80.0M S100.0
M
e u e u e 1.627 5.27 26%e ue60.5
a e 8%p e 53.9
a e a 39.4
e a e 9.2%
a e a 3.0%e a e2.7a e4.1a 1.350
e a e80.0a e100.0
a
n c n c 1.818 6.64 26%c np70.4
r p 8%r p 57.4
r p r 41.6
p r p 9.5%
r p r 3.0%p r p3.5r p4.1r 1.350
p r p80.0r p100.0
r
1.790 7.27 25% 62.4 8% 61.4 44.4 9.9% 3.0% 3.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
Switch CPU 1.794 7.18 24%Mac63.6 8% 65.1 Mac47.5
inst base 10.3%
iPod inst bs 3.0% 3.8 4.1 1.350
Mac Market 80.0 %100.0
1y halo
nits 1.848 6.46 24% 65.4 8% 68.4 50.5 10.5% 3.0%
share 3.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
2.045 8.11 23% 76.1 8% 72.5 53.1 10.8% 3.0% 4.1 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
2.021 8.89 23% 67.4 8% 77.1 56.4 Mac
11.2%$$ 3.0% 4.6 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
2.030
0.500 8.72 22% 68.7 8% 81.5
120.0 60.0 11.6% 3.0% 4.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.600
2.088 7.80 22% 70.6 8% 85.3 63.5 11.9% 3.0% 3.8 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
0.400
2.293 100.0
9.76 21% 82.2 8% 90.1 66.5 12.2% 3.0% 4.8 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.500
0.300 80.021% 72.8 8% 95.4
2.274 10.71 70.3 12.6% 3.0% 5.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.400
0.200 60.020% 74.2 8% 100.4
2.289 10.46 74.5 12.9% 3.0% 5.1 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.300
2.351
0.100 9.31
40.020% 76.3 8% 104.8 78.6 13.2% 3.0% 4.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.200
2.565 11.61
20.020% 88.7 8% 110.3 82.1 13.5% 3.0% 5.5 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.100
0.000
2.553 12.74 19% 78.7 8% 116.4 86.4 13.9% 3.0% 6.1 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
D J D 0.0 1.000
2.573 12.39 19% 80.1 8% 122.1 91.2 14.2% 3.0% 5.8 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
u e u e D J D J D
2.641 11.01 19% 82.4 8% 127.2J D J D J D J D J
95.8 14.5% D J D J D J D J D J D J
3.0% 5.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 D
n c n c 2.865 13.67 18%e u e95.8u e 8%
u e133.4
u e u 99.9
e u e14.8%
u e u 3.0%
e u e6.2 u e 4.1u e u e 80.0
1.350 u e 100.0
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c

Mac CPU ASP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr

 0.100 40.0 1.200
0.000 20.0 1.100
D J D 0.0 1.000
u e u e D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
n c n c e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
2.859 c n c84.9
15.00 18% n c 8%
l c140.3
n c n104.8
c n c15.2%
n c n 3.0%
c n c 6.9
n c 4.1
n c1.350
n c 80.0
n c 100.0
2.885 14.55 18% 86.5 8% 146.8 110.2 15.5% 3.0% 6.6 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
Mac CPU ASP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr
2.960 12.91 18% 89.0 8% 152.5 115.5 15.8% 3.0% 5.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
3.195 15.98 17% 103.5 8% 159.6 120.0 16.1% 3.0% 7.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
3.196 17.51 17% 91.7 8% 167.3 125.6 16.4% 3.0% 7.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
 Mac Mac
CPU prfls SW Tot
rev rev rev rev Products
1.269 0.222 0.212 2.006 PC iTMS
1.160 0.238 0.187 1.909 iPod mini
1.263 0.219 0.210 2.014
1.231 0.271 0.213 2.350 4G iPod
1.605 0.284 0.213 3.490
1.494 0.280 0.239 3.243 iPod shuffle
1.565 0.266 0.345 3.520
1.611 0.296 0.294 3.678 iPod nano
1.724 0.303 0.325 5.749 5G iPod/MacTV
1.572 0.264 0.324 4.359 Intel Macs/Hi-Fi
1.740 0.249 0.328 4.3
1.940 0.316 0.333 4.9
2.341 0.375 0.403 7.3
2.423 0.348 0.432 5.8
2.497 0.311 0.467 5.6
2.576 0.384 0.452 6.1
3.256 0.453 0.519 9.0
3.493 0.438 0.545 7.5
3.509 0.412 0.593 7.2
1003.413 0.493 0.588 7.6
4.380 0.572 0.668 11.0
80 4.780 0.570 0.709 9.5
4.725 0.554 0.772 9.2
60 4.434 0.644 0.777 9.4
5.708 0.735 0.871 13.3
40 6.279 0.745 0.928 11.9
6.145 0.741 1.004 11.5
20 5.640 0.840 1.022 11.5
7.241 0.942 1.130 16.1
0 7.996 0.964 1.202 14.6
S M S M 7.773 0.972 1.293 14.2
e a e a 7.035 1.081 1.323 13.9
p r p r 8.991 1.195 1.446 19.2
9.941 1.230 1.535 17.8
halo % 9.622 1.250 1.641 17.3
8.631 1.370 1.684 16.7
10.971 1.496 1.822 22.7
12.131 1.545 1.928 21.3
11.707 1.577 2.050 20.7
1.600
10.441 1.708 2.107 19.9
1.500
13.199 1.847 2.261 26.7
1.400
14.586 1.910 2.385 25.3
1.300
14.046 1.956 2.524 24.6
12.482 2.099 2.596 23.5
1.200
15.696 2.252 2.768 31.2
1.100
17.326 2.330 2.910 29.7
1.000
16.662 2.391 3.067 29.0
J D 14.776 2.546 3.155 27.6
u e 18.485 2.714 3.345 36.2
n c
 1.200
1.100
1.000
J D
u e
n c 20.379 2.808 3.507 34.7
19.580 2.884 3.684 33.8
17.345 3.054 3.789 32.1
21.593 3.237 3.999 41.8
23.772 3.348 4.182 40.2
Comments

All unit numbers in millions

$ revenue in billions
$ unit prices in thousands

Assumptions/definitions
Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base

iPod installed base / Replacement cycles:

Installed base increase (new usrs) = iPods sold - iPods replaced
iPods replaced = previous installed base / avg life cycle
2 year initial life cycle

iPod switch base:

1st year (03) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/4 CPU share
2nd year (04) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/2 CPU share
3rd year (05) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 3/4 CPU share
Beyond 3rd year (>05) new iPod users PC/Mac share = CPU share

iPod future sales:

41 million iPod units in 06
Beyond 12m iPod unit growth based on CPU unit growth

Unit prices / Revenues:

Other music revenue (iTMS, peripherals) attached to iPod units
Other revenue (software, peripherals) attached to CPU units
$210 future iPod unit price (iPod+peripherals+iTMS)
$1750 future CPU unit price (CPU+peripherals+software)

CPU industry / Market share:

2% pre-halo CPU market share
8% long term industry CPU growth