US Web order daily rates (fwd 30 dma)

Datetime (PST) Order# days orders rate

12/06/2002 00:00 4292 55 379 6.9
01/30/2003 00:00 4671 29.00 145 5.0 55.0
02/28/2003 00:00 4816 31.00 160 5.1 29.0
03/31/2003 00:00 4975 30.00 160 5.3 31.0
04/30/2003 00:00 5135 31.00 170 5.5 30.0
05/31/2003 00:00 5305 23.00 130 5.6 31.0
06/23/2003 00:00 5435 47.00 248 5.3 23.0
08/09/2003 00:00 5683 38.00 256 6.74 47.0
09/16/2003 00:00 5939 11.00 89 8.09 38.0
09/27/2003 00:00 6028 26.00 130 5.00 11.0
10/23/2003 00:00 6158 40.00 454 11.35 26.0
12/02/2003 00:00 6612 24.00 300 12.50 40.0
12/26/2003 00:00 6912 35.00 375 10.71 24.0
01/16/2004 00:00 7143 14.00 144 10.29 21.0
01/27/2004 00:00 7248 35.00 335 9.57 11.0
01/30/2004 00:00 7287 32.00 296 9.25 3.0
03/02/2004 00:00 7583 7.00 59 8.43 32.0
03/09/2004 00:00 7642 41.00 347 8.46 7.0
04/19/2004 00:00 7989 49.00 425 8.67 41.0
06/07/2004 00:00 8414 33.00 311 9.42 49.0
06/12/2004 00:00 8472 28.00 253 9.04 5.0
07/10/2004 00:00 8725 52.00 530 10.19 28.0
08/31/2004 00:00 9255 57.00 564 9.89 52.0
10/27/2004 00:00 9819 30.00 353 11.77 57.0
11/26/2004 00:00 10172 30.00 707 23.57 30.0
12/09/2004 00:00 10459 27.00 564 20.89 13.0
12/26/2004 00:00 10879 28.00 436 15.57 17.0
01/05/2005 00:00 11023 33.00 413 12.52 10.0
01/23/2005 00:00 11315 34.00 530 15.59 18.0
02/07/2005 00:00 11436 35.00 663 18.94 15.0
02/26/2005 00:00 11845 31.00 454 14.65 19.0
03/02/2005 00:00 11925 33.00 442 13.39 4.0
03/14/2005 00:00 12099 32.00 459 14.34 12.0
03/29/2005 00:00 12299 31.00 475 15.32 15.0
04/04/2005 00:00 12367 30.00 539 17.97 6.0
04/10/2005 00:00 12437 31.00 581 18.74 6.0
04/15/2005 00:00 12558 26.00 460 17.69 5.0
04/25/2005 00:00 12699 16.00 319 19.94 10.0
04/29/2005 00:00 12774 34.00 574 16.88 4.0
05/04/2005 00:00 12906 29.00 442 15.24 5.0
05/11/2005 00:00 13018 34.00 507 14.91 7.0
06/02/2005 00:00 13348 26.00 368 14.15 22.0
06/14/2005 00:00 13525 35.00 469 13.40 12.0
06/28/2005 00:00 13716 34.00 447 13.15 14.0
07/13/2005 00:00 13909 34.00 256 7.53 15.0
07/19/2005 00:00 13994 32.00 172 5.38 6.0
08/01/2005 00:00 14163 28.00 332 11.86 13.0
08/07/2005 00:00 14164 31.48 332 10.55 6.0
08/16/2005 00:00 14165 34.75 783 22.52 9.0
Web order daily rate (f
08/20/2005 00:00 14166 30.75 782 25.42 4.0
70
08/24/2005 06:42 14494 31.72 563 17.74 4.3
08/29/2005 00:00 14495 31.57 643 20.38 4.7 60
09/07/2005 11:25 14496 28.88 749 25.93 9.5
09/13/2005 21:00 14497 30.53 899 29.45 6.4 50
09/19/2005 18:03 14948 31.62 599 18.96 5.9
40
09/24/2005 23:58 15057 32.61 614 18.84 5.2
09/29/2005 13:43 15138 28.03 533 19.01 4.6 30
10/06/2005 08:32 15245 28.34 556 19.61 6.8
10/14/2005 09:40 15396 28.02 557 19.89 8.0 20
10/21/2005 09:00 15547 28.11 569 20.23 7.0 10
10/27/2005 14:30 15671 32.74 854 26.10 6.2
11/03/2005 16:42 15800 28.79 899 31.23 7.1 0
11/11/2005 10:02 15953 34.18 1756 51.39 7.7 100 0000 00011 1000 00000 0011 11000 0000 00000 0
11/18/2005 11:41 16116 27.11 1594 58.79 7.1 212 3456 89902 2111 33466 7801 22112 2333 44444 5
11/25/2005 12:07 16338 28.46 1898 66.69 7.0 /// //// ///// //// ///// //// ///// //// ///// /
11/29/2005 08:10 16525 32.36 1964 60.70 3.8
12/02/2005 11:40 16700 29.21 1790 61.27 3.1
12/09/2005 15:19 17198 33.84 1580 46.68 7.2 Short term forecasting (next 2 months)
12/15/2005 14:15 17710 34.64 1219 35.20 6.0 Date ord# yr ago days orders
12/23/2005 23:08 18236 32.51 815 25.07 8.4 12/23/2005 23:08 18236 10833
12/31/2005 16:42 18489 30.65 667 21.77 7.7 12/31/2005 16:42 18489 10974 7.73 254
01/06/2006 11:48 18621 32.08 677 21.11 5.8 01/06/2006 11:48 18621 11051 5.80 131
01/12/2006 11:26 18778 33.82 678 20.05 6.0 01/12/2006 11:26 18778 11158 5.98 157
01/19/2006 05:30 18929 27.07 528 19.49 6.8 01/19/2006 05:30 18929 11263 6.75 151
01/25/2006 11:17 19050 28.87 547 18.95 6.2 01/25/2006 11:17 19050 11329 6.24 122
01/31/2006 08:18 19156 30.11 567 18.84 5.9 01/31/2006 08:18 19156 11371 5.88 106
02/07/2006 13:42 19298 31.18 565 18.11 7.2 02/07/2006 13:42 19298 11445 7.22 141
02/15/2006 07:08 19456 30.39 510 16.79 7.7 02/15/2006 07:08 19456 11588 7.73 158
02/23/2006 08:05 19597 29.02 464 15.98 8.0 02/23/2006 08:05 19597 11775 8.04 141
03/02/2006 10:53 19724 33.97 508 14.95 7.1 03/02/2006 10:53 19724 11932 7.12 126
03/10/2006 18:05 19863 25.67 369 14.37 8.3 03/10/2006 18:05 19863 12057 8.30 139
03/17/2006 16:28 19966 18.74 265 14.16 6.9 03/17/2006 16:28 19966 12151 6.93 104
03/24/2006 08:30 20061 12.07 171 14.13 6.7 03/24/2006 08:30 20061 12241 6.67 95
04/01/2006 21:08 20182 30.45 716 23.50 8.5 04/01/2006 21:08 20182 12345 8.53 121
04/05/2006 10:16 20232 26.91 666 24.75 3.5 04/05/2006 10:16 20232 12377 3.55 50
05/02/2006 08:00 20898 30.33 743 24.50 26.9 04/12/2006 03:42 20378 12489 6.73 147
06/01/2006 16:00 21641 30.68 6.6 04/18/2006 21:08 20548 12618 6.73 170
05/02/2006 08:00 20898 12865 13.45 349
05/17/2006 12:00 21277 13117 15.17 379
06/01/2006 16:00 21641 13343 15.17 364

Short term forecasting (nex

35
33
30
28
25
23
20
18
15
 Short term forecasting (nex
35
33
30
28
25
23
20
18
15
13
10
8
5
25-Dec 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 5-Mar 12-Mar 19-M

rate yr ago
 Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions

011 11000 0000 00000 0000 00000 00000 0000 11111 1111 11111 0000 00000 0000 00
801 22112 2333 44444 5566 67788 88889 9999 00001 1111 22222 1111 12223 3334 45
// ///// //// ///// //// ///// ///// //// ///// //// ///// //// ///// //// //

rate
ng (next 2 months)
% rel rate yr ago events
Xmas interp 3/24 20061 15.04 23.9 -37%
80.5% 32.81 18.18 EoQ interp 4/18 20557 23.54 24.6 -4%
69.8% 22.65 13.34 project 5/17 21269 24.50 25.5 -4%
48.2% 26.31 17.76 MWSF
43.0% 22.30 15.59
85.6% 19.53 10.52
150.3% 18.05 7.21 Jan
90.6% 19.57 10.27
10.7% 20.49 18.50
-24.3% 17.58 23.21
-19.9% 17.75 22.17 Feb/Hi-Fi
11.8% 16.73 14.97
9.7% 14.95 13.63
6.0% 14.21 13.40
16.0% 14.17 12.22 EoQ
52.7% 14.02 9.18 BootC
31.3% 21.81 16.61 1.80 (interpolation)
32.1% 25.24 19.11 1.70 (interpolation)
41.2% 25.97 18.39 Apr est 23.50 (current trend and planned events)
50.4% 24.99 16.62 2.00 (interpolation)
61.1% 24.01 14.91 May est 24.50 (long-term trends and seasonality)

rt term forecasting (next 2 months)

rt term forecasting (next 2 months)

5-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun

rate yr ago events

-May 28-May 4-Jun
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj acc adj
Dec-02 4447 7.2 5.5 30% 3% 72%
Jan-03 4659 7.0 5.9 18% 9% 90%
Feb-03 4814 5.1 6.2 -17% -11% 73%
Mar-03 4970 5.1 6.4 -19% -11% 53%
Apr-03 5131 5.3 6.5 -19% -9% 34%
May-03 5298 5.5 6.7 -18% -12% 16%
Jun-03 5466 5.6 6.9 -20% -12% -4%
Jul-03 5626 5.3 7.1 -26% -9% -30%
Aug-03 5814 6.2 7.3 -15% 1% -45%
Sep-03 6033 7.2 7.5 -4% 3% -49%
Oct-03 6217 6.1 7.7 -22% -3% -71%
Nov-03 6561 11.4 8.0 42% 22% -29%
Dec-03 6934 12.3 8.5 44% 17% 15%
Jan-04 7252 10.5 9.1 15% 12% 31%
Feb-04 7542 9.6 9.4 1% -7% 32%
Mar-04 7801 8.5 9.9 -14% -12% 18%
Apr-04 8060 8.5 10.1 -16% -12% 2%
May-04 8323 8.7 10.7 -19% -15% -17%
Jun-04 8607 9.4 11.1 -15% -13% -32%
Jul-04 8898 9.6 11.3 -15% -11% -47%
Aug-04 9210 10.3 11.0 -7% -2% -54%
Sep-04 9508 9.8 11.3 -13% -3% -67%
Oct-04 9812 10.0 12.0 -16% -8% -84%
Nov-04 10168 11.7 12.5 -6% 10% -89%
Dec-04 10879 23.4 13.8 70% 35% -19%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 14.9 0% 7% -19% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.4 3% -3% -16% 100.0 200% 100%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 15.6 -4% -9% -20%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 15.8 -6% -9% -25% 75%
80.0 160%
May-05 13252 17.4 16.4 6% -8% -19% 50%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 17.1 -16% -14% -35% 60.0 120%
25%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 17.8 -26% -17% -61%
Aug-05 14494 13.4 18.6 -28% -13% -89% 40.0 80% 0%
Sep-05 15057 18.5 19.3 -4% -3% -93% -25%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 20.1 -6% -8% -99% 20.0 40%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 20.8 25% 16% -74% -50%
0.0 0%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 21.7 179% 78% 105% -75%
Jan-06 19156 21.8 22.7 -4% 3% 100% -20.0 -40% -100%
Feb-06 19727 18.8 23.8 -21% -10% 79% D F A J AOD F A J A OD F A J AOD F A J AOD F A J AOD F D F A JJ S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M
Mar-06 20184 15.0 24.9 -40% -22% 40% e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e e e p uu e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a
Apr-06 20898 23.5 25.8 -9% -9% 31% c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b c b r- nl p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r-
May-06 21641 24.5 26.8 -8% -8% 23%
Jun-06 22364 23.8 27.8 -14% -14% 8% est rate rate regr %diff acc adj
Jul-06 23058 22.9 27.6 -17% -17% -9%
Aug-06 23796 24.3 27.9 -13% -13% -22% Quarterly orders and revenues Stock valuation
Sep-06 24625 27.3 28.3 -3% -3% -25% 12500 200
Oct-06 25445 27.0 29.2 -8% -8% -33%
Nov-06 26498 34.7 29.9 16% 16% -17% 175
Dec-06 28208 56.4 31.6 78% 78% 61% 10000
150
Jan-07 29311 36.4 35.4 3% 3% 64%
Feb-07 30317 33.1 37.0 -10% -10% 54% 7500 125
Mar-07 31214 29.6 38.0 -22% -22% 32% 100
Apr-07 32270 34.8 38.3 -9% -9% 22%
5000 75
May-07 33369 36.2 39.4 -8% -8% 14%
Jun-07 34421 34.7 40.5 -14% -14% 0% 50
Jul-07 35459 34.2 41.3 -17% -17% -17% 2500
Aug-07 36570 36.6 42.0 -13% -13% -30% 25
Sep-07 37826 41.4 42.9 -3% -3% -33% 0 -
Oct-07 39068 40.9 44.3 -8% -8% -41% D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
Nov-07 40668 52.7 45.5 16% 16% -25% ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
Dec-07 43250 85.1 47.8 78% 78% 53% - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - - - 03 - - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - -
Jan-08 44878 53.7 52.3 3% 3% 56%
Feb-08 46357 48.7 54.4 -10% -10% 45% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc
Mar-08 47678 43.6 55.9 -22% -22% 23%

Quarterly / financials
Month orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opex g% g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap
Dec-02 713 1472 2065 449 1202 2676 7% 63.5% 27.6% 420 2612 1850 29 1.3% 4 26.2% 722 0.02 0.12 7.16 57.95 42.95 7.93 5.88 -71% 6.18 -35% 5.17
Mar-03 524 1475 2818 505 1341 2655 -1% -745.5% 28.3% 419 3410 1116 23 0.9% 6 28.0% 724 0.02 0.09 7.07 78.41 32.67 9.08 3.78 -61% 6.25 -40% 5.12
Jun-03 496 1545 3115 568 1496 2633 8% 133.6% 27.7% 419 3507 1038 17 0.5% 7 27.0% 728 0.03 0.07 9.53 131.18 34.42 45.24 11.87 -40% 6.24 8% 6.94
Sep-03 567 1715 3025 639 1670 2612 19% 38.9% 26.6% 425 3396 1170 10 0.3% 12 29.1% 742 0.04 0.10 10.36 101.26 27.79 41.11 11.28 306% -37% 6.15 43% 7.69
Dec-03 901 2006 2227 719 1863 2591 36% 27.6% 26.7% 462 3724 1067 9 0.3% 23 27.8% 745 0.08 0.17 10.69 64.13 16.58 25.55 6.60 412% 35% 6.43 49% 7.96
Mar-04 867 1909 2201 809 2079 2571 29% 39.7% 27.8% 468 3158 1436 12 0.3% 21 28.1% 756 0.07 0.22 13.52 62.47 14.82 34.39 8.16 233% 140% 6.08 91% 10.22
Jun-04 806 2014 2500 910 2320 2550 30% 47.2% 27.8% 479 3120 1846 13 0.4% 26 27.7% 785 0.09 0.28 16.27 58.77 13.59 35.92 8.30 232% 281% 6.33 71% 12.77
Sep-04 902 2350 2607 1023 2588 2530 37% 48.3% 27.0% 501 2969 2495 19 0.6% 43 28.3% 806 0.14 0.37 19.38 51.99 13.48 33.80 8.77 244% 264% 6.78 87% 15.62
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1151 2888 2509 74% 38.3% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 0.9% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.64 32.20 49.93 18.23 38.00 13.87 340% 287% 7.69 201% 26.98
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1295 3223 2489 70% 30.0% 29.9% 566 2254 4803 33 1.3% 145 33.3% 857 0.34 0.91 41.67 45.68 21.62 36.65 17.35 376% 322% 8.23 208% 35.71
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1456 3596 2469 75% 38.5% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 2.0% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.74 17.16 23.44 13.09 330% 333% 8.74 126% 31.69
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1638 4012 2450 57% 41.0% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 1.9% 153 32.0% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.30 22.63 30.66 18.60 177% 286% 9.53 177% 46.45
Dec-05 3439 5749 1672 1859 4515 2429 5749 65% 47.4% 27.3% 775 4150 4557 81 2.3% 280 32.0% 874 0.68 1.77 71.89 40.70 28.27 35.06 24.35 93% 174% 9.96 123% 62.85
Mar-06 1687 4387 2600 2091 5038 2409 4442 35% 50.0% 28.0% 666 4396 4785 104 2.5% 213 32.0% 908 0.50 1.93 62.72 32.55 21.79 27.30 18.28 47% 111% 10.11 51% 56.95
Jun-06 2180 5210 2390 2352 5621 2390 5243 48% 50.0% 28.0% 765 4928 5024 110 2.5% 257 32.0% 927 0.59 2.14 78.20 36.46 25.00 31.45 21.57 59% 79% 10.74 112% 72.49
Sep-06 2261 5361 2371 2646 6272 2371 5712 46% 52.0% 27.5% 764 5436 5275 123 2.5% 267 32.0% 945 0.60 2.37 85.69 36.17 25.00 31.38 21.69 60% 65% 11.33 60% 81.01
Dec-06 3583 7076 1975 2976 6999 2352 7109 23% 53.0% 27.5% 870 6345 5539 136 2.5% 388 32.0% 964 0.85 2.54 96.44 37.92 25.00 33.08 21.80 26% 44% 12.33 34% 92.97
Mar-07 3007 7014 2333 3348 7809 2333 6389 60% 54.0% 27.5% 881 7075 5816 159 2.5% 386 32.0% 983 0.83 2.88 105.53 36.66 25.00 32.11 21.89 67% 49% 13.11 68% 103.74
Jun-07 3206 7420 2314 3765 8714 2314 6378 42% 55.0% 27.0% 944 7903 6107 177 2.5% 396 32.0% 1002 0.84 3.13 113.98 36.44 25.00 31.97 21.93 42% 46% 13.98 46% 114.26
Sep-07 3405 7817 2296 4235 9723 2296 7229 46% 55.0% 27.0% 956 8821 6412 198 2.5% 433 32.0% 1022 0.90 3.43 122.83 35.84 25.00 31.49 21.97 50% 45% 14.90 43% 125.56
Dec-07 5424 10577 1950 4764 10849 2277 9239 49% 55.0% 27.0% 1106 10374 6733 221 2.5% 630 32.0% 1042 1.28 3.86 134.77 34.93 25.00 30.68 21.96 50% 52% 16.41 40% 140.48
Mar-08 4428 10003 2259 5359 12105 2259 8691 43% 55.0% 27.0% 1088 11539 7069 259 2.5% 599 32.0% 1063 1.20 4.22 145.82 34.54 25.00 30.40 22.00 44% 47% 17.51 38% 154.99
Jun-08 4489 10059 2241 6028 13507 2241 7936 36% 55.0% 27.0% 1128 12767 7423 288 2.5% 600 32.0% 1084 1.18 4.56 157.30 34.50 25.00 30.41 22.04 40% 46% 18.63 38% 170.50
Sep-08 4768 10598 2223 6780 15072 2223 8920 36% 55.0% 27.0% 1143 14149 7794 319 2.5% 652 32.0% 1105 1.25 4.91 168.28 34.25 25.00 30.21 22.05 39% 43% 19.85 37% 186.00
Dec-08 7593 14428 1900 7626 16817 2205 11753 36% 55.0% 27.0% 1328 16434 8184 354 2.5% 935 32.0% 1127 1.76 5.39 183.28 34.00 25.00 29.95 22.02 37% 40% 21.84 36% 206.58
Mar-09 6199 13561 2187 8578 18765 2187 11449 36% 55.0% 27.0% 1300 18163 8593 411 2.5% 887 32.0% 1149 1.64 5.83 196.85 33.75 25.00 29.76 22.04 37% 38% 23.28 35% 226.26
6.29 38%
0.4990 6.73 37%
22034 7.33 36%
7.87 35%
 3/29 4/15 5/1 5/11 6/2 6/15 6/29 7/13 8/2 8/11 8/20 8/29 9/7 9/14 10/5 10/14
F05Q2 0.27 0.34
F05Q3 0.26 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.32 0.37
F05Q4 0.33 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.35 0.34 0.38
F06Q1 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.55 0.59
F06Q2 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.51
F06Q3 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.49
F06Q4 0.53
F07Q1
fwd12m 1.43 1.76 1.73 1.77 1.77 1.76 1.73 1.86 1.88 1.85 1.86 1.83 1.82 1.87 1.86 2.12

1.20

1.05

0.90

0.75

0.60

0.45

0.30
Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05

F05Q2 F05Q3 F05Q4 F06Q1

 11/3 11/18 11/30 12/15 12/31 1/6 1/12 1/19 1/25 1/31 2/7 2/15 2/23 3/2 3/10 3/17

0.57 0.60 0.68 0.87 0.81 0.81 0.71 0.68

0.52 0.52 0.58 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.56 0.55 0.50 0.50 0.50
0.48 0.48 0.54 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.58 0.58 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58
0.53 0.53 0.57 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.60 0.60 0.60
1.05 1.02 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.85
2.10 2.14 2.37 2.77 2.69 2.68 2.52 2.82 2.80 2.76 2.77 2.73 2.72 2.58 2.54 2.52

Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06

5Q3 F05Q4 F06Q1 F06Q2 F06Q3 F06Q4 F07Q1 fwd12m

 3/24 4/1 4/5

0.50 0.50 0.50

0.58 0.57 0.59
0.60 0.60 0.60
0.84 0.84 0.85
2.52 2.51 2.54

2.75

2.5

2.25

1.75

1.5
r-06 Jul-06
 iPod iPod iPod New Switch iPod accs iTMS iPod
iPod unit inst switch iPod CPU life iPod /user /user iPod accs iTMS
Date units grw base base usrs units cycl ASP /year /year rev rev rev
Dec-03 0.7 170% 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.049 1.9 0.357 28.2 21.9 0.256 0.028 0.019
Mar-04 0.8 320% 2.5 0.8 0.7 0.002 2.5 0.345 34.6 27.5 0.264 0.033 0.027
Jun-04 0.9 268% 3.2 1.2 0.7 0.059 2.2 0.325 36.2 31.7 0.249 0.036 0.037
Sep-04 2.0 370% 5.0 2.0 1.8 0.002 2.4 0.296 35.9 31.5 0.537 0.051 0.047
Dec-04 4.6 469% 9.3 5.1 4.2 0.2 2.3 0.274 30.2 26.9 1.211 0.096 0.081
Mar-05 5.3 486% 14.2 8.6 5.0 0.3 2.4 0.236 23.2 24.9 1.014 0.089 0.127
Jun-05 6.2 560% 19.9 12.5 5.7 0.2 2.6 0.214 20.4 22.6 1.103 0.111 0.130
Sep-05 6.5 409% 25.5 16.3 5.6 0.3 2.8 0.202 18.7 21.0 1.212 0.127 0.138
Dec-05 14.0 287% 37.5 28.0 12.1 0.1 2.6 0.195 18.5 20.0 2.906 0.256 0.235
Apr-06 9.0 179% 44.4 34.5 6.8 0.0 2.6 0.190 19.0 22.0 1.552 0.284 0.398
Jul-06 11.0 124% 52.9 42.8 8.5 0.2 2.6 0.185 18.0 23.5 2.035 0.208 0.372
Sep-06 12.0 105% 61.9 51.3 9.1 0.3 2.9 0.180 18.5 24.5 2.160 0.314 0.402
Dec-06 16.0 50% 71.6 60.3 9.6 0.6 2.6 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.800 0.329 0.497
Mar-07 9.9 37% 76.8 64.6 5.2 0.8 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 1.740 0.410 0.583
Jun-07 12.1 24% 83.4 70.2 6.6 0.3 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.121 0.309 0.520
Sep-07 13.3 12% 90.6 76.7 7.2 0.4 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.332 0.431 0.575
Dec-07 17.8 11% 98.1 83.3 7.5 0.8 2.6 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.120 0.453 0.681
Mar-08 11.2 11% 102.7 86.5 4.7 0.9 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 1.954 0.513 0.735
Jun-08 13.6 12% 108.4 90.4 5.7 0.4 iPod market
2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.385 0.397 0.649
Sep-08 14.8 12% 15.0114.4 95.4 6.0 0.5 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.593 0.530 0.720 300
Dec-08 19.9 12% 121.1 100.8 6.7 0.9 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.486 0.561 0.839
12.5 250
Mar-09 12.6 12% 125.6 103.2 4.5 1.1 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.213 0.608 0.875
Jun-09 15.5 12% 10.0130.9 106.2 5.4 0.5 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.709 0.481 0.772 200
Sep-09 16.5 12% 136.3 110.1 5.4 0.6 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.887 0.622 0.854
7.5
Dec-09 22.3 12% 142.9 115.0 6.6 1.0 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.900 0.662 0.988 150
Mar-10 14.4 12% 147.5 116.9 4.6 1.2 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.514 0.703 1.014
5.0
Jun-10 17.6 13% 153.0 119.2 5.5 0.6 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.087 0.566 0.899 100
Sep-10 18.4 13% 158.2
2.5 122.6 5.2 0.7 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.217 0.713 0.989 50
Dec-10 24.9 13% 165.0 127.2 6.8 1.1 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 4.363 0.765 1.138
0.0
Mar-11 16.3 13% 169.8 128.7 4.9 1.3 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 2.854 0.802 1.160 0
Jun-11 20.1 13% 175.7D J 130.6D J D 5.9J D J D 0.7J D2.7J 0.175
D J D 17.0
J D J 25.0
D J 3.516
D J D J D 1.033
0.658 J D
Sep-11 20.5 13% 181.1e u133.7 e u e 5.4u e u e 0.8u e2.7u 0.175
e u e 17.0
u e u25.0
e u 3.583
e u e0.809
u e 1.130
u e
Dec-11 27.9 13% 188.3c n138.2 c n c 7.2l c n c1.2n c2.7n 0.175
c n c 17.0
n c n25.0
c n 4.877
c n c0.871
n c 1.295
n c
Mar-12 18.5 12% 193.5 139.4 5.2 1.3 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.235 0.908 1.315
Jun-12 22.8 12% 200.0 iPod 141.1
inst 6.4
base 0.8 switch
iPod 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0usrs
New iPod 3.997 Switch
0.757 1.179
CPU
Sep-12 22.8 12% 205.7 144.0 5.7 0.9 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 3.989 units
base 0.912 1.281
Dec-12 31.1 12% 213.4 148.5 7.8 1.3 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 5.443 0.986 1.463
Mar-13 20.9 12% 219.1 149.4 5.7 1.4 2.7Music0.175 $$17.0 25.0 3.658 1.022 1.483
Jun-13 25.9 12% 50 226.3 151.1 7.1 0.9 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 4.533 0.866 1.3390.500
Sep-13 25.3 12% 232.4 153.8 6.1 1.0 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 4.435 1.024 1.447
Dec-13 34.7 12% 40 240.8 158.4 8.4 1.3 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 6.067 1.109 1.6450.400
Mar-14 23.6 12% 30 247.1 159.2 6.3 1.5 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 4.125 1.147 1.6670.300
Jun-14 29.3 12% 20 255.0 160.8 7.9 1.0 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 5.127 0.986 1.5160.200
Sep-14 28.2 12% 10 261.6 163.5 6.7 1.0 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 4.927 1.148 1.6280.100
Dec-14 38.6 12% 270.9 168.3 9.2 1.4 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 6.753 1.244 1.844
0 0.000
Mar-15 26.5 12% 277.8 168.8 6.9 1.6 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 4.642 1.284 1.869
Jun-15 33.1 12% 286.5 D J D J D
170.4 J D
8.7 J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J
1.0 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 5.784 1.119 1.711 D J D
Sep-15 31.2 12% 293.7 e u e173.1
u e u 7.3e u e 1.1
u e u2.7e 0.175
u e u 17.0
e u e 25.0
u e 5.467
u e u e u1.828
1.284 e
Dec-15 42.9 12% 303.9 c n c n c l
178.1 10.1c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n
1.5 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 7.507 1.392 2.061 c n c

iPod ASP accs /user iTMS /user

/year /year
 10 0.100
0 0.000
D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c
Mar-16 29.8 12% 311.5 178.6 7.6 1.6 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 5.212 1.435 2.091
iPod ASP accs /user iTMS /user
Jun-16 37.2 12% 321.1 180.1 9.6 1.1 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 6.512 1.266 1.927
/year /year
Sep-16 34.6 12% 329.1 182.8 8.0 1.2 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 6.060 1.433 2.048
Dec-16 47.6 12% 340.2 188.1 11.1 1.6 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 8.335 1.554 2.300
Mar-17 33.4 12% 348.6 188.5 8.4 1.7 2.7 0.175 17.0 25.0 5.842 1.601 2.334
 iTMS Mac PC Mac Mac Mac New Mac Mac prfls SW
+prfls Mac unit PC CPU inst iPod Market 1y halo to life CPU /usr /usr
rev units grw CPUs grw base inst bs share % Mac cycl ASP /yr /yr
0.047 0.83 0% 41.1 5% 12.2 1.3 2.1% 26.7% 0.1 4.0 1.505 64.7 57.9
0.060 0.75 5% 37.8 5% 12.2 1.7 2.1% 15.8% 0.0 4.0 1.506 68.7 59.8
0.073 0.88 10% 37.8 6% 12.3 2.0 2.1% 18.6% 0.1 4.0 1.509 72.5 63.4
0.098 0.84 9% 38.6 6% 12.4 3.0 2.1% 9.9% 0.0 4.0 1.496 76.9 66.6
0.177 1.05 13% 44.0 7% 12.7 4.2 2.2% 9.8% 0.3 4.0 1.500 80.8 65.7
0.216 1.07 22% 41.2 9% 13.0 5.6 2.4% 11.2% 0.4 4.0 1.461 82.0 68.1
0.241 1.18 28% 42.0 11% 13.4 7.4 2.5% 8.9% 0.4 4.0 1.426 83.3 76.4
0.265 1.24 38% 43.2 12% 13.8 9.1 2.7% 8.7% 0.4 4.1 1.384 82.6 80.1
0.491 1.25 35% 49.3 12% 14.3 9.5 2.7% 5.2% 0.4 4.0 1.348 81.4 85.6
0.682 1.20 27% 44.5 8% 14.7 9.8 2.7% 2.8% 0.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 83.0
0.580 1.50 26% 45.3 8% 15.3 10.1 2.8% 2.1% 0.6 4.1 1.350 80.0 79.0
0.716 1.65 24% 46.7 8% 16.0 10.6 3.0% 1.7% 0.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 77.0
0.826 1.95 33% 53.2 8% 17.1 11.2 3.3% 2.5% 1.0 4.0 1.350 80.0 80.0
0.993 2.08 47% 48.1 8% 18.2 12.1 3.7% 3.5% 1.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 85.0
0.829 1.90 46% 49.0 8% 19.1 13.2 3.8% 3.2% 0.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 90.0
1.006 2.16 44% 50.4 8% 20.2 13.9 4.0% 3.0% 1.1 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.134 2.88 43% 57.5 8% 21.9 14.8 4.4% 3.0% 1.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.248 3.19 41% 51.9 8% 23.9 16.2 4.9% 3.0% 2.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.045 2.48 41% 52.9 8% 25.1 Mac 5.0%
18.0 market 3.0% 1.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
300
1.250 12.5%
2.86 41% 54.4 8% 26.6 19.0 5.3% 3.0% 1.5 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0100
1.400 4.01 39% 62.1 8% 29.1 20.3 5.7% 3.0% 2.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
250 10.0%
1.483 4.51 37% 56.1 8% 31.9 22.3 6.1% 3.0% 2.8 4.0 1.350 80.0 100.080
1.253
200 3.23 36% 57.1 8% 33.6 24.8 6.4% 3.0% 1.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.476 7.5%
3.72 36% 58.8 8% 35.6 26.2 6.6% 3.0% 2.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.060
150
1.651 5.34 34% 67.0 8% 38.8 27.9 7.0% 3.0% 3.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.718 5.0%
6.04 32% 60.6 8% 42.5 30.6 7.5% 3.0% 3.7 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.040
100
1.465 4.13 32% 61.7 8% 44.6 33.8 7.8% 3.0% 2.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.702
50 2.5%
4.74 31% 63.5 8% 47.2 35.6 8.0% 3.0% 2.6 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.020
1.903 6.87 30% 72.4 8% 51.1 37.8 8.4% 3.0% 3.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
01.962 0.0%
7.79 28% 65.4 8% 55.7 41.2 8.9% 3.0% 4.5 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.00
D J D J D 1.691 5.19 28%D J S66.6
M S 8%A S58.4
M S M 45.1
S M S9.2%
M S M3.0% S M S2.7M S4.1M 1.350
S M S80.0M S100.0
M
e u e u e 1.938 5.93 27%e ue68.5
a e 8%p e 61.5
a e a 47.4
e a e 9.4%
a e a 3.0%e a e3.1a e4.2a 1.350
e a e80.0a e100.0
a
n c n c 2.166 8.60 26%c np78.2
r p 8%r p 66.2
r p r 50.1
p r p 9.9%
r p r 3.0%p r p4.7r p4.1r 1.350
p r p80.0r p100.0
r
2.223 9.75 25% 70.7 8% 71.6 54.2 10.4% 3.0% 5.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
Switch CPU 1.936 6.42 25%Mac71.9 8% 74.9 Mac58.8
inst base 10.6%
iPod inst bs 3.0% 3.3 4.1 1.350
Mac Market 80.0 %100.0
1y halo
nits 2.193 7.30 24% 74.0 8% 78.7 61.7 10.9% 3.0%
share 3.7 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.0
2.449 10.54 24% 84.5 8% 84.2 64.9 11.3% 3.0% 5.5 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
2.506 11.95 23% 76.3 8% 90.5 69.7 Mac
11.8%$$ 3.0% 6.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
2.206
0.500 7.82 22% 77.7 8% 94.4
120.0 75.2 12.0% 3.0% 3.9 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.600
2.471 8.84 22% 80.0 8% 98.8 78.6 12.3% 3.0% 4.4 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.0
0.400 100.022% 91.2 8% 105.1
2.755 12.72 82.4 12.7% 3.0% 6.4 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.500
0.300 80.021% 82.4 8% 112.4
2.815 14.39 87.9 13.2% 3.0% 7.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.400
2.503
0.200 60.021% 83.9 8% 116.9
9.40 94.2 13.4% 3.0% 4.6 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0 1.300
2.776
0.100 10.58
40.020% 86.3 8% 122.0 98.2 13.7% 3.0% 5.1 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.200
3.088 15.15
20.020% 98.5 8% 129.2 102.6 14.1% 3.0% 7.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
1.100
0.000
3.153 17.11 19% 89.0 8% 137.4 108.9 14.6% 3.0% 8.2 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
D J D 0.0 1.000
2.830 11.19 19% 90.6 8% 142.7 116.1 14.8% 3.0% 5.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
u e u e D J D J D
3.112 12.53 19% 93.3 8% 148.5J D J D J D J D J
120.7 15.1% D J D J D J D J D J D J
3.0% 5.8 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.0 D
n c n c 3.454 17.84 18%e u 106.4
e u e 8% u e156.7
u e u125.7
e u e15.5%
u e u 3.0%
e u e8.2 u e 4.2u e u e 80.0
1.350 u e 100.0
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c

Mac CPU ASP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr

 0.100 40.0 1.200
0.000 20.0 1.100
D J D 0.0 1.000
u e u e D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
n c n c e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
3.526 c n c96.2
20.11 18% n c 8%
l c165.9
n c n132.9
c n c16.0%
n c n 3.0%
c n c 9.2
n c 4.1
n c1.350
n c 80.0
n c 100.0
3.193 13.18 18% 97.9 8% 171.9 141.0 16.2% 3.0% 6.0 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
Mac CPU ASP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr
3.482 14.71 18% 100.7 8% 178.5 146.2 16.4% 3.0% 6.6 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.0
3.854 20.82 17% 114.9 8% 187.7 152.0 16.8% 3.0% 9.2 4.2 1.350 80.0 100.0
3.935 23.43 17% 103.8 8% 198.1 160.1 17.3% 3.0% 10.3 4.1 1.350 80.0 100.0
 Mac Mac
CPU prfls SW Tot
rev rev rev rev Products
1.269 0.222 0.212 2.006 PC iTMS
1.160 0.238 0.187 1.909 iPod mini
1.263 0.219 0.210 2.014
1.231 0.271 0.213 2.350 4G iPod
1.605 0.284 0.213 3.490
1.494 0.280 0.239 3.243 iPod shuffle
1.565 0.266 0.345 3.520
1.611 0.296 0.294 3.678 iPod nano
1.724 0.303 0.325 5.749 5G iPod/MacTV
1.677 0.293 0.238 4.4 Intel Macs/Hi-Fi
1.994 0.306 0.327 5.2
2.170 0.350 0.316 5.7
2.667 0.374 0.443 7.1
2.860 0.381 0.414 6.4
2.533 0.388 0.507 6.4
2.864 0.428 0.600 7.2
3.917 0.485 0.582 9.2
4.359 0.530 0.600 8.7
3.319 0.518 0.669 7.9
1003.802 0.537 0.737 8.9
5.445 0.643 0.779 11.8
80 6.147 0.741 0.864 11.4
4.327 0.699 0.895 9.9
60 4.965 0.685 0.921 10.9
7.239 0.850 1.038 14.7
40 8.217 1.016 1.207 14.7
5.548 0.933 1.188 12.2
20 6.348 0.874 1.157 13.3
9.299 1.110 1.363 18.0
0 10.571 1.355 1.631 18.4
S M S M 6.982 1.224 1.551 15.0
e a e a 7.953 1.107 1.449 16.0
p r p r 11.636 1.423 1.755 21.9
13.222 1.760 2.138 22.6
halo % 8.638 1.572 1.987 18.1
9.791 1.388 1.801 19.2
14.264 1.794 2.218 26.2
16.187 2.233 2.729 27.3
10.526 1.980 2.497 21.7
1.600
11.875 1.720 2.215 22.7
1.500
17.204 2.224 2.755 31.0
1.400
19.488 2.777 3.408 32.6
1.300
12.664 2.451 3.086 25.8
14.224 2.105 2.696 26.7
1.200
20.478 2.716 3.371 36.4
1.100
23.151 3.395 4.181 38.5
1.000
15.070 2.990 3.759 30.4
J D 16.859 2.547 3.249 31.2
u e 24.113 3.276 4.071 42.4
n c
 1.200
1.100
1.000
J D
u e
n c 27.206 4.092 5.053 45.1
17.768 3.599 4.520 35.6
19.802 3.051 3.879 36.3
28.141 3.908 4.861 49.1
31.685 4.874 6.029 52.4
Comments

All unit numbers in millions

$ revenue in billions
$ unit prices in thousands

1.200

Assumptions/definitions
Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base

iPod installed base / Replacement cycles:

Installed base increase (new usrs) = iPods sold - iPods replaced
iPods replaced = previous installed base / avg life cycle
2 year initial life cycle

iPod switch base:

1st year (03) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/4 CPU share
2nd year (04) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/2 CPU share
3rd year (05) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 3/4 CPU share
Beyond 3rd year (>05) new iPod users PC/Mac share = CPU share

iPod future sales:

48 million iPod units next 12 months
Beyond 12m iPod unit growth based on CPU unit growth

Unit prices / Revenues:

Other music revenue (iTMS, peripherals) attached to iPod units
Other revenue (software, peripherals) attached to CPU units
$210 future iPod unit price (iPod+peripherals+iTMS)
$1750 future CPU unit price (CPU+peripherals+software)

CPU industry / Market share:

2% pre-halo CPU market share
8% long term industry CPU growth