An Example of Probabilistic Reasoning

A probabilistic classifier consists of a probabilistic rule base, an inference engine

and a classification system. The probabilistic classifier is able to detect if the detected
bio-gene is True (T) or False (F).
Probabilit Probabilit
1.0 y y
F Overlap T “Green” “Red”
1.0
Bio-gene
Belief
Bio-Value Degree

0 50 100 0 0.4 0.75 1.0

• Probabilistic Rule Base

Rule 1: If atomic number is in F region, Then "Green";
Rule 2: If atomic number is in T region, Then "Red".

• Probabilistic Reasoning
Assume biological value (Bio-V) = 50, then probabilistic inference gives
BioWeapon-Belief Degree =
GC (Re d ) P (T Bio −V =50 ) +GC (Green ) P ( F Bio −V =50 ) ,
where GC (Re d ) and GC (Green ) are the centers of gravity of the triangles
for Alarm and No-Alarm. Then GC (Re d ) = 2 * (1.0 − 0.4) / 3 + 0.4 = 0.8 ,
and GC (Green ) = 0.75 / 3 = 0.25 . Now we suppose P(T Bio −V =50 ) =0.3
, P ( F Bio −V =50 ) =0.6 , then Belief Degree =
0.25 × 0.6 + 0.8 × 0.3 = 0.39 .

• Classification
Finally, the classification module selects “Check” (i.e., “Green”) because Belief
Degree is less than 75% (If larger than 75%, then No-Check).