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TRADING Strategies

Trading the Wyckoff way:


Buying springs
and selling upthrusts

BY HENRY O. (HANK) PRUDEN, PH.D. early 1900s. His principles and proce-
dures, which came to be known as “the

B
out time, who is left to take the other Wyckoff method,” are based on reading
side of the trade? The answer is the bet- chart patterns.
ter-informed professionals, who have Don’t expect to discover a set of pre-
efore the rudiments of tech- conditioned themselves to act in accor- cise mechanical rules with the Wyckoff
nical analysis were spread- dance with another old saying, “One method — instead, you’ll discover
ing like wildfire via the should fear to tread where fools rush in.” insights, general principles and guide-
Internet, bookstores and tel- Hence, if you want to trade like the pro- lines that will help you interpret market
evision, the general public or “the fessionals, and not count yourself behavior.
crowd,” would join a trend only after it among the fools, you may want to sell a
had been well underway. breakout rather than buy it — especially
Nowadays, however, “the crowd” when the popular stocks of the day are A spring is a price move below the sup-
often rushes into a stock, a sector or a under consideration. port level of a trading range that quickly
market at the first clue of a price break- To avoid being caught with the crowd, reverses and moves back into the range.
out from a congestion zone. But as you should contemplate buying springs A spring is an example of a “bear trap”
Joseph Granville, a famous technical and selling upthrusts — two insightful, because the drop below support appears
analyst and trader, once said, “[In the but often overlooked, principles of to signal resumption of the downtrend.
markets], whatever is obvious is obvi- Richard D. Wyckoff, an early advocate of In reality, though, the drop marks the end
ously wrong.” technical analysis who codified the best of the downtrend, thus “trapping” the
So, if the crowd is rushing in at break- practices of the famous traders of the late sellers, or bears. The extent of sup-

If you want to trade like the professionals,


consider selling an upside breakout
rather than buying it.
40 www.activetradermag.com • August 2000 • ACTIVE TRADER
Picking tops and bottoms can be risky, but understanding
concepts like Wyckoff’s springs and upthrusts allow you

to identify low-risk, high-reward trade


set-ups based on false breakouts..

ply, or the strength of the sellers, can be


judged by the depth of the price move to
new lows and the relative level of vol- volume than No. 3 springs. This indi-
ume on that penetration. cates sellers are still abundant during the
An upthrust is the opposite of a break. Therefore, a second test of sup-
spring. It’s aprice move above the resist- port is necessary before a buy can be sig- completed when, after penetrating
ance level of a trading range that quick- naled. After the initial break below sup- resistance on large relative volume, price
ly reverses itself and moves back into the port, price should move back about one- returns immediately to the average level
trading range. An upthrust is a “bull third into the trading range. Ideally, the of closing prices within the preceding
trap” — it appears to signal a start of an volume for this up move should be high- range. The No. 3 upthrust is referred to
uptrend but in reality marks the end of er than during the immediately preced- as an “upthrust after distribution.” Sell
the up move. The magnitude of the ing downswing, and also greater than No. 3 upthrusts immediately.
upthrust can be determined by the volume of previous rallies within the The No. 2 upthrust usually consists of
extent of the price move to new highs trading range. The secondary test con- a larger rally past resistance on greater
and the relative level of volume on that sists of a down move that, on compara- comparative volume than No. 3 up-
movement. tively light volume, usually retraces less thrusts. Like its No. 2 spring counterpart,
Springs and upthrusts are divided into than half the rally off the low established however, a secondary test must be con-
three types — No. 3, No. 2 and No. 1. on the first downside penetration. ducted before a sell signal is activated.
No. 1 springs are wholesale break- After resistance is crossed initially, price
downs below support on volume that is should move back about one-third into
A No. 3 spring occurs when a modest much larger than that of prior down- the trading range. Volume for this move
penetration of support is accompanied swings within the trading range. Do not ideally should be greater than during the
by volume that is relatively light com- buy No. 1 springs; rather, look to sell preceding upswing and higher than vol-
pared to the volume of prior down short if the subsequent rally stops at or ume during the previous down moves.
moves. The shallow price penetration below the prior support (now resistance) The secondary test consists of a rally that,
and low volume indicate sellers are level, especially if the move back to this on comparatively light volume, often
exhausted. No. 3 springs should be level occurs on approximately half the retraces less than half the reaction from
bought immediately. volume of the initial breakdown. the immediately preceding high.
No. 2 springs penetrate more deeply Upthrusts are essentially mirror No. 1 upthrusts are legitimate upside
below support with greater comparative images of springs. A No. 3 upthrust is continued on p. 42

ACTIVE TRADER • August 2000 • www.activetradermag.com 41


FIGURE 1 NO. 2 SPRING
After dropping below support, BVSN rallies back As technical analyst
into the trading range and signals a buy after a
secondary test of support. and trader Joe Granville
Broadvision Inc. (BVSN), daily 90

80 once said,“In the markets,


70
whatever is obvious is obviously wrong.”
60

50 breakouts that denote the case involves Broadvision Inc. (BVSN),


start or resumption of an which formed a No. 2 spring in late
Buy 40
signal uptrend, and are usually January (see Figure 1, left). Price fell
30 accompanied by high vol- below support to 37 3⁄8 on high volume on
Price drops ume. Rather than attempt- Jan. 31 before springing back to the mid-
below support 20 ing to sell short, look to dle of the trading range at 51 3⁄4 on Feb. 3.
buy on a pullback that Abuy order was signaled when the stock
10
halts at or above prior fell back below 50 on light volume the
resistance (now support),
300,000 next two trading days (the secondary
High volume
especially if the coinciding
250,000 test required of the No. 2 spring), with a
volume is no more than
200,000 stop-loss at the most recent low of 37 3⁄8.
half the volume of the ini-
150,000 After breaking back above 50 on Feb. 8,
tial breakout.
100,000 B roadvision subsequently skyrocketed
50,000 to 90 by early March.
The next two examples are in Lucent
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2000 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Let’s see how these pat- Technologies (LU). Figure 2 (lower left)
terns develop in real mar- shows that Lucent, in late May 1999, fell
Source: TradeStation by Omega Research
ket situations. The first below previously defined support near
56 on very light volume, imme-
FIGURE 2 NO. 3 & NO. 1 SPRINGS diately signaling a good buying
opportunity in accordance with
When support is penetrated on light volume, a buying opportunity occurs. Likewise, a
the rules for a No. 3 spring. The
price drop through the middle of the trading range after penetration of resistance
stock rallied strongly into July.
signals a sell.
Although Lucent slumped after
Lucent Technologies (LU), daily the big increase, the stop-loss
Penetration Sell 80 was never hit.
of resistance signal A new trading range devel-
75 oped in early November, with
the stock trading between 72 and
70 82. When the resistance level was
penetrated in mid-December, a
65 short sale could have been exe-
cuted around 78 — the point
60
where the rally began to falter on
relatively decreased volume. But
55
a few days later, when the mar-
Buy ket fell through the approximate
signal halfway point of the trading
50
range, the sell signal was con-
Penetration 160,000 firmed, with an accompanying
of support stop-loss around the preceding
on light volume 120,000 high of 84 3⁄16.
80,000 Two more examples involve
Computer Network Tech. Corp.
40,000
(CMNT). These setups are practi-
cally identical, although they oc-
Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2000 Feb. Mar. Apr. May
curred at different times. Figure
Source: TradeStation by Omega Research 3 (p. 44) shows CMNT formed a
continued on p. 44

42 www.activetradermag.com • August 2000 • ACTIVE TRADER


FIGURE 3 NO. 2 UPTHRUSTS
Two similar short-selling opportunities: Failed upside moves on diminished volume trading range in the
set up short trades. 20 to 25 region during
November and December 1999.
Computer Network (CMNT), daily 30
Sell
The stock penetrated resistance
28 toward the end of the year on
signal
26 increased volume, but soon fell
Sell 24
back down below 22. The stock
signal again attempted to rally, with price
22
reaching 25 1⁄8 on Dec. 30, but it did
20 so on diminishing volume. This
18 failed rally completed the setup
16
sequence for a No. 2 upthrust.
Another similar setup developed
14
in February and March 2000. A sell-
12 ing opportunity arose when price
10 began to decrease past the halfway
8
point of the trading range in mid-
80,000
March on decreasing volume. In
Diminishing both CMNT examples, stop-loss
Diminishing 70,000
volume
volume 60,000 orders are placed at or just above
50,000 the preceding highs.
40,000
30,000 Figure 4 (lower left) shows the
20,000 final examples, which involve
10,000 Amazon.com (AMZN) and are a
Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2000 Feb. Mar. Apr. May case of several intertwining situa-
tions. First, the stock formed a mas-
Source: TradeStation by Omega Research sive trading range between 62 and
110 from late-September 1999 to
FIGURE 4 NO. 3 UPTHRUSTS mid-April 2000. When the stock
rose above 110 with a burst of vol-
A penetration of resistance accompanied by a volume spike falls quickly; a subse -
ume in early December, only to
quent test of resistance in February at the middle of the trading range confirms the
turn back down again, it could
downward bias.
have constituted a No. 3 upthrust
Amazon Com Inc, (AMZN), daily and a sell short order could have
Sell 110
signal been placed around 101 (where
Penetration
of resistance 100 resistance for a much smaller trad-
ing range had formed). In early
90 February, another short-selling
opportunity presented itself when
Sell 80
the market once again failed to
signal rally past the halfway point of the
70
range on diminishing volume.

60
By dividing upthrusts and springs
into three separate categories, trad-
50
ers who study the Wyckoff method
will be better able to evaluate market
800,000 behavior around bear and bull traps.
700,000
The important thing to remem-
600,000
500,000 ber is that bottom fishing or top
Diminishing 400,000 picking should not always be
volume 300,000 avoided or considered dangerous.
200,000
100,000
Recognizing and understanding
springs and upthrusts can help you
Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2000 Feb. Mar. Apr. May locate reasonably high-r eward,
low-risk opportunities near the bot-
Source: TradeStation by Omega Research
toms and tops of trading ranges. Ý

44 www.activetradermag.com • August 2000 • ACTIVE TRADER

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