09-10 NDT CEDA Caselist - AFF

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**CRITICAL**
Augustana Sam/Washington (Critical-Disarm) [DCH]
Current disarmament negotiations will maintain a hedge of weapons and leave open the possibility for new weapons
systems.
Frida Berrigan, senior program associate at The New America Foundation's Arms and Security Initiative, 5/14/2009
“Nuclear Options,” http://www.counterpunch.org/berrigan05142009.html
Congress gave a…and new facilities.
The very existence of nuclear weapons shreds the fabric of democracy by allowing decisions about their use to be
made by leaders without the input of the public. This willingness to privilege the interests of the rulers over the wishes
of the public is consistent and bipartisan throughout time and creates a permanent state of warfare where a small
circle of individuals are granted the authority to enact apocalyptic destruction.
Richard Falk, Milbank Professor of International Law and Practice at Princeton University, 1982 “Nuclear Weapons
and The End of Democracy,” PRAXIS International, Issue 1
In this essay…shape societal destiny.
Democracy is the ultimate impact – it is the equivalent of nuclear war, it sanctions all forms of violence and is
responsible for the vast majority of history’s death and destruction.
RJ Rummel, Professor Emeritus at University of Hawaii, 1994 “Death By Government”,
http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DBG.CHAP1.HTM
Power kills, absolute…Book of the Dead.
PLAN
We demand that:
The United States Congress should abolish the United States Federal Government’s nuclear arsenal.
Individual demands for disarmament are critical to creating the conditions necessary for a world without weapons and
war. This round represents a unique opportunity to exchange ideas and plans that disarm the bombs in our lives. This
demand creates non-violence, democratic dialogue, awareness and tolerance capable of confronting the dichotomous
thinking that makes nuclear annihilation inevitable.
Dennis Kucinich, Democratic Congressional Representative from Ohio, 4/1/2002 “Peace and Nuclear Disarmament,”
http://www.counterpunch.org/kucinichdisarm.html
If you believe…world of tolerance.
Congressional action is key to ensuring constitutionally mandated oversight of nuclear policy.

Stanley Foundation, 2008
“Toward an Integrated US Nuclear Weapons Policy: Address US Security in an Interconnected World,” Final Report of
the US Nuclear Policy Review Project,
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/report/USNuclearPolicyReviewESc.pdf
The lack of…on strategic policy.
Disarmament fulfills the democratic promise to combine a sense of realism and idealism by moving from what ‘is’ in the
world to what ‘ought’ to be.
Max Kampelman, Headed of the U.S. delegation for Nuclear and Space Arms negotiations from 1985-9, 4/24/2006
“We Should, So We Can: Life Without the Bomb,” International Herald Tribune,
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0424-21.htm
Washington -- In my…of mass destruction.
Individual demands are critical to building the political pressure to push American leaders to accept complete
disarmament. The alternative is to wait for leaders to emerge, delays and modifications to the arsenal that put us on a
collision course with annihilation.
David Kreiger, President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 8/5-6/2006 “A Global Hiroshima,”
http://www.counterpunch.org/krieger08052006.html
It has been…not be higher.
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Bard Jaffe-Goldstein/Luxemberg (Critical) [Ogi]
Aff- Westpoint
THOUGH SHALL NOT MAKE FALSE IMAGES OF SELF….The Atom Bomb Feigns The Power Of God to Destroy –
But is created Out of the spirit of Death destroying our ability to care as it demands our offerings sacrificing the poor
education leading us into empty lives which can only be fulfilled with the explosions of Nuclear Proportions
1996 Plowshares Trial Brief “ON obedience ot God and God’s Law: An excerpt from the griffis plowshares trial brief”
On trial in swords into plowshares nonviolent direct action for disarmeament..peace..social justice – Edited by Laffin,
Arthur and Montgomery, Anne, p. 116-117
And The State disobeys divine Law hence Nuclear weapons have become false idols for the state-sanction religion of
militarism, we no longer worship G-d, but instead the big cold metal rod of our false idols thus violating our freedom of
religion and the sanctity of Gods Laws creating our nation as sinners with blood on our hands
Laffin, Arthur, J> 1996. (Plowshare activist and author) in Idolaatry, Nuclearism and the national Security State in
“Swords into Plowshares” ed. Art laffin, Anne Montgomery. Pgs. 272-3
As We Shiver In Our Insecurity We develop Shelters to hide in and Bombs to project our dreams on – we pretend to be
powerless and close our eyes searching for a cure creating a deadly alliance between self and symbol –
Berrigan, Phillip 1996 (ex=priest, author, activist) On blindness and healing in “Swords into plowshares”, ed. Arthur J.
Laffin Anne MOntogomery pgs 19-20
Our national vulnerability and insecurity creates an assertion of US hegemonic power that emerges when we identify
as the US state, an insecure state boasting its powers but wimpering on the inside
Butler 06 [Judith, Precarious Life: The Powers of Mourning and Violence] 7

We thus externalize our fears into the US military complex creating the worst forms of hegemony reaffirming sexism,
racism and androcentrism
Campbell, Prof Afr Am Studies & Poly Sci @ Syracuse; 3; Radical History Review; Iss. 85; “Beyond Militarism and
Terrorism in the Biotech Century: Toward a Culture of Peace and Transformation”
Thus we offer a prayer in response to the hail of the resolutions call to the reduction of the nuclear realities of today:
Thus G-d will judge among the nations and arbitrate for the many peoples and they shall beat their swords into
plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not take up sword against nation, they shall never again
learn war. (Isiah 2:1-5)
NOW is the time to challenge the court of debate – we are sick of worshipping lies that become laws that propogate a
criminal state and its nuclear idols – The Judge will vote to assert the crimes of the institutional worship of the Bomb
and all its destructive sins
1996 Opening Statement of the Pax Christi=Spirit of Life Plowshares US Distric Court Elizabeth city n.c. February 15,
1994 – in plowshares nonviolent direct action ed. laffin and mongomery p. 135-136
Our commitment to the peaceful act of Love requires a reintroduction of moral and ethical concerns to the debate
round as a way to unlearn war – War has become inscribed into the very process of education and until we leave state
based debate to turn towards our development of our agency
Giroux 06 (Henry A. Giroux, American Cultural Critic, one of the founding theorists of critical pedagogy in the United
States, Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Dirty Democracy and State Terrorism: The
Politics of the New Authoritarianism in the United States Vol. 26, No. 2, 2006)
This ponse is an act of divine obedience through nonviolence – it is an attitude and moving force that goes beyond
strategic political actions which reinforce a traditional relationship to the law
MOntogmery 1996 Anne divine obedience in swords into plowshars p. 1-2
We must speak with personal narratives to disrupt the nuclear authority
Elmer Mass 1996
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Baylor Cook/McVey (Critical-Agamben) [Eli]
Gonzaga Aff
Gonz Rnd 1- aff v. NU GL- McBride
We begin our investigation with Marc LaFleur’s 2007 observation:

If you visited the Bradbury Museum, in Los Alamos, New Mexico, …mention of Hiroshima was ever made.
Lafleur 2007 “LAFLEUR-LITTLE BOY”
Marc Lafleur, Dept of Anthropology, York University Culture, Trauma, and Conflict: Cultural Studies Perspectives on
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007 pg (pg 212-214)
The Rebirth of Little Boy is a crucial site for analyzing the dual nature of sovereign power. The power to both protect
and kill whole populations is monumentalized as the essence of American political life.
Lafleur 2007 “LAFLEUR KILL TO SAVE”
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007 pg 215-217
A further complication. The characteristics of death …lived under the promises and threats embedded within?
The biopolitical system operates both in reference to and exclusion of bare life, or life reduced to mere biological
existence. When human survival becomes the essence of political subjectivity- a new political figure emerges - the
Muselmann.
The Muselmann were the prisoners in German concentration camps that were abandoned by the community of camp
prisoners, beyond any hope of recognition. Pushed to the brink of famine prisoners would shake and moan, hunched
over like Muslims at prayer. The Muselmann is the constant reminder that every human life carries within itself an
inhuman life, and that when the zero point of politics is survival, we all are potential muselmanner. Agamben 98
Giorgio, Remnants of Auschwitz, 84-86
Let us try to further develop Foucault’s analysis…. this point, is a simple epiphenomenon.
Because nuclear weapons are both a tool of destruction and a celebrated American achievement, they offer us a
unique site for interrogating the paradoxes of bare life.
Lafleur writes, “as the memorial … and traumas emerge” (209).
One such fault line emerged in July of 2005. The National Atomic Museum in Albuquerque New Mexico
commemorated the 60th anniversary of the opening of the Trinity test site, the site that would host the explosions that
were later replicated on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The celebration, called “The Blast from the Past”, was
meant to commemorate the shining history of U.S. nuclear achievement. Shigeko Sasamori, a survivor of the
Hiroshima bombing, was present at the ceremony. Her presence introduced a remnant that interrupted the self-serving
historical narrative of U.S. accomplishment.
Lafleur 2007 “Lafleur Blast From The Past”
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007pg, (218-220)
Blast from the Past was a …the topic no longer just intellectual but now sensual.
When faced with the traumatic figure of a Hiroshima survivor, the glorified image American life is confronted with
something impossible to recognize, a remnant which survives the unsurvivable.
Lafleur 2007 “Lafleur Denial”
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007220-221
Shigeko Sasamori was thirteen …olds don’t have skin that smooth.’’
Two responses emerge from the experience of Sasamori’s testimony.
The first response follows the path of the two women who denied Sasamori’s existence. This path leads a retreat into
the logic of sovereignty – rationality fills in and rebuilds a temporary grounding for subjectivity. Political action is
simulated in order to repress emotion and anxiety in the face of trauma, as life is again reduced to bare life.
Lafleur 2007 “Lafleur Anasthesia”
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007 222-224
It is only when a perceived or imagined … need or desire for human engagement null. …feedback loop, to encompass
them as well.
A second response to Sasamori’s testimony is to bear witness to bare life itself. Our 1ac embraces this model of
witnessing by refusing to follow sovereignty back into the realm of security. An affirmative ballot bears witness to an
ethics that refuses to abandon and isolate bare life.
Noys 2005
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Benjamin Noys, The Culture of Death, 96-97

Agamben is arguing that there is … and so does not forget our exposure to death.
The political struggle over U.S. nuclear weapons relies on a series of texts, discourses, and symbols through which
nuclear weapons are given cultural significance. Our 1AC interrupts the dominant narrative established at places like
the Bradbury Science Museum, challenging the discursive defense of deterrence theory and the symbolic role of U.S.
nuclear weapons.
Taylor 1997
Bryan C. Taylor, Ph. D., Communication, University of Utah Associate Professor, Department of Communication,
University of Colorado, Boulder, Revis(it)ing Nuclear History: Narrative Conflict at the Bradbury Science Museum*
Studies in Cults., Orgs. and Socs., 1997, Vol. 3, pp. 119-145
http://mps.uchicago.edu/docs/2006/readings/TaylorNuclearHistoryMuseums.pdf
Within the past decade, the U.S. nuclear weapons … forms of power and privilege justified and celebrated" (Lumley
1988: 2).
Sovereign power operates by concealing its involvement in the wars and genocides that create illusion of the state’s
necessity. We’re told that political events take place in an empty space of present time where political subjects are
shielded from historical trauma. Memory is a crucial site of resistance.
Edkins 2003 Jenny Edkins, Professor of International Politics .at Prifysgol Aberystwyth University, She has degrees
from Oxford , where she was a Nuffield Scholar, the City University , the Open University and the University of Wales,
Trauma and the memory of politics, pg., 2003, pg xiv-xv
“Of course, the distinction I have made…struggle of memory against forgetting.
The 1AC is a site of political potentiality. By bearing witness to the bare life that we all carry within ourselves, we open
ourselves to a new plane of political intensity that defies sovereign control.
Lafleur 2007 “Lafleur Potentiality”
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007, 224-225
Traumatic eruptions of sympathy,… of intensification that this potential may harnessed.
GSU Aff Disclosure

SAME AS ABOVE
We begin our investigation with Marc LaFleur’s 2007 observation:
Muselmann.
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War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007 pg, (218-220)
them as well.
Noys 2005
nuclear weapons.
Taylor 1997
1988: 2).
Traumatic eruptions of sympathy,… of intensification that this potential may harnessed.We begin our investigation with
Marc LaFleur’s 2007 observation:
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Muselmann.
War, edited by Nico Carpentier 2007 pg, (218-220)
them as well.
Noys 2005
nuclear weapons.
Taylor 1997
1988: 2).
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Framework Answers
Traumatic eruptions of sympathy, relief, pleasure or …intensification that this potential may harnessed.
The framework tries to produce a closed predictable debate that models the consensus politics of modern democracy.
This repeats the depoliticizing and exclusionary move of sovereignty which requires us to forget the trauma at the
heart of our democratic social order.
Edkins 2003
Jenny Edkins, Professor of International Politics .at Prifysgol Aberystwyth University, She has degrees from Oxford ,
where she was a Nuffield Scholar, the City University , the Open University and the University of Wales, Trauma and
the memory of politics, pg. 11-12, 2003
The uncertainty and unpredictability that this involves…closed social order
A.Cost benefit Analysis is depoliticizing and methodologically bankrupt – it renders all life politically calculable.
WOLCHER 2K7
[louie e., professor of law @ university of washington – seattle, “senseless kindness: the politics of cost-benefit
analysis”, 25 law and inequality: j. of theory and practice, 147-202]
Taking Husserl's distinction between facts …advance what counts as a fact.

B. Calculative thought produces a logic of genocide.
Dillon 99
Dillon 99 (Michael, Professor of International Relations at the University of Lancaster, “Another Justices” Political
Theory, Vol 27, No. 2, 164-5)
Quite the reverse. The subject…. exceeds whatever exceeds measure.
A. The framework argument limits expressions of trauma into the linguistic boundaries of political community,
rendering the victims of sovereign power as bare, incommunicable life.
Edkins 2003 Jenny Edkins. Trauma and the memory of politics, pg. 7-9, 2003
In both cases what has happened is beyond the possibility … a reformulation of community.
B. Framework turns deliberative communal reflection into a criteria for excluding bare life- the community defines its
praxis through negation as it attempts to secure its ideal subject in the language of the resolution.
Norris 2000 Andrew Norris Giorgio Agamben and the Politics of the Living Dead diacritics 30.4: 38-58, Winter 2000
Agamben echoes such claims at times, and argues, …ungrounded ground of all praxis [Language and Death 58-62,
88, 105-06].
The demand for immediate action is politically disenabling and prevents an analysis of the self-fulfilling rhetorical
failures of normative legal thought.
Schlag ’90 (Pierre, November 1990, Prof. of Law @ Colorado U., Stanford Law Review “Normative and Nowhere to
Go” p. L/N)
In fact, even as you read and even ……variation on formalism n36 -- normative formalism. n37
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Binghamton Cameron/Groh (Critical) [Logan]
Joseph Ciricione, 2007 (Joseph Cirincione, "Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons" pg 1)
“Albert Einstein signed the letter. Years later he would regret it, calling it the one mistake he had made in his life. But in
August 1939, Adolf Hitler’s armies already occupied Czechoslovakia and Austria and his fascist thugs were arresting
Jews and political opponents throughout the Third Reich. Signing the letter seemed vital. His friends and fellow
physicists, Leo Szilard and Eugene Wigner, had drafted the note he would now send to President Franklin D.
Roosevelt. The scientists had seen their excitement over the recent breakthrough discoveries of the deepest secrets of
the atom turn to fear as they realized what unleashing atomic energies could mean. Now the danger could not be
denied. The Nazis might be working on a super-weapon; they had to be stopped."[[#_ftn1|[1]]]
This “Bomb Scare” frames the discursive space of nuclear weapons in a way that reveals the political black hole of this
year’s resolution: one that haunts all political subjects, whether in the halls of policymaking, the public square of
society, or the academia of the debate community. Characteristic of this gap in knowledge are the cultural axiomatics
such as American exceptionalism and free-market capitalism which brought into being the nuclear weapon’s
articulation. In this way, the American creation of the nuclear weapon ushered in a nasty trifecta: a juridical fascism’s
disciplinary power surrounding the control of nuclear weapons, the new benchmark of the biopolitical process in the
nuclear weapon’s destructive capabilities, both of which are puppeteered by the royal science of Capital. The
“Punishment from Heaven” described by the Japanese as being delivered by American bomb crews to Hiroshima on
August 6th was the U.S. capitalist response to the “radical fascism” of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial
Japan. The radioactive halo over Hiroshima may have marked the dominant historical understanding’s “end” to the
Second World War, but failed to vanquish the fascism that was the object of its creation, instead only assisting in its
smoother function under a benevolent new appearance.
One result of this new form of totalitarianism Foucault argues has been the shift on the part of the state apparatus to
force the war machine to take war itself as an object --- that governments no longer go to war temporarily over territory
or material wealth but rather permanently in the name of stopping war itself.( You know, that Foucault 78 card.) We
also see this rhetoric in each conflict the U.S. has entered into since WWII, claiming to be intervening in the “interest of
peace, freedom, and justice” in Vietnam, Iraq, Bosnia, Somalia, Pakistan even as we bomb into oblivion the condition
of possibility for all three.
(Date of Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” speech.
http://web.archive.org/web/20070524054513/http:www.eisenhower.archives.gov/atoms.htm)
Deleuze and Guattari argue that contained within the political forms we are familiar with today lies the ultimate
incarnation of the “double pincer, a double bind,” which functions with the aid of two strata: the scale of destruction
offered by the nuclear weapon and the axiomatic systems that find their moment of creation in the state’s total
regulation of that weapon. The scale of destruction offered by nuclear weapons can be understood as the biopolitical
implications of their destructive properties, and the juridical authority that the State comes to wield over the regulation,
even articulation of the nuclear weapon in the form of treaties such as the NPT, CTBT, and FMCT could be understood
as the disciplinary power of totalitarianism that re-creates the double pincer of God: no subject may be free, the State,
“god, as lobster” will always exert the power to discipline or destroy you. Caught between these pincers, we must ask,
“Is there no way to resist? Is politics even possible? How might we resist this totalitarianism? In response to the
conditions of the status quo, an affirmation of the 1AC is a reterritorializing act that participates in a Refrain whose
existence contributes to the radical possibilities of a new form of politics. Think as an example Rosa Parks: not the first
person ever to refuse to change seats on a bus, but her action had revolutionary aspects consistent with the context of
what could be called ‘the beginning’ of the Civil Rights Movement. An affirmation of the resolution is not a telos but
instead a necessary predicate to produce the conditions for new statements, a collective undertaking that would span
generations in the name of a people to come. The judge signing the ballot affirmative is an act of political irruption that
establishes itself as a resistance to fascism and the apparatus of capture that has justified the violent repression of the
present. ---Surin 2006 (Kenneth, Deleuze and the Contemporary World 70-72)
(One of Einstein’s last letters to FDR concerned that military and political imperatives had overshadowed the judgment
and research of science, coopting it in the mission to create a hegemonic nuclear state.
http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/library/correspondence/einstein-albert/corr_einstein_1945-03-25.htm)
We must make a distinction: we do not accept the existence of a State as given. We begin our understanding of the
State as nothing more than one political form. We find fault with the State because it has always posited its necessity
after the fact. (ATP, pg 352) Instead of engaging in some competition of political forms, we wish to ask whether politics
is even possible now. (Pause) A visitor to the Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C., after experiencing all the
phenomenology of the holocaust, is confronted by a video of former president Bill Clinton, making the argument that to
prevent the recurrence of such evil, the strong sovereign state is our only defense. This is bullshit, because the Nazis
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were the state, and proved the State itself is the condition of possibility for such violence as the Holocaust, even as the
State posits its necessity to prevent the violent actions it relies upon for its sovereignty. This vicious cycle contributes
to a smoother function of a fascist system that is established prior to desire itself, making us desire the types of forces
which bring about the next Holocaust --- as the boys note,
“It is curious that from the very beginning the Nazis announced to Germany what they were bringing: at once wedding
bells and death, including their own death, and the death of the Germans. They thought they would perish but that their
undertaking would be resumed, all across Europe, all over the world, throughout the solar system. And the people
cheered, not because they did not understand, but because they wanted that death through the death of others.”
( Deleuze and Guattari ’87 pg. 291-292)
This statist fascism is the ultimate impact: pure destruction and abolition, leading to the suicide of the State and its
constituents. (Deleuze and Guattari ’87 pg. 230-231 ) It’s a world in which we’re not only incapable of recognizing the
totalitarian control that the State has come to exert over us as political subjects, but in which we come to desire that
control through the death of ourselves and others.
Modern discourse surrounding nuclear weapons focuses on several of the catastrophic fears associated with its
destructive powers. These fears circle around nuclear terrorism, so called ‘nuclear rogue-states’ and the possibility of
‘miscalculation’. The state posits itself as the best defense against all these threats by claiming to possess order with
the sovereign power to protect its citizens and discipline those who transgress its order. One must challenge why the
state posits itself as the best defense when the state has only contributed to the function of such violent events as the
Cold War, and bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It is even more pressing, dare we say it, necessary, to think the
question as William Haver and Deleuze do, and ask, “what of these threats, but what of others that the state has not
only refused to defend against, but instead has improved upon, producing a world where various holocausts become
actualized, normative, and accepted by us, “the masses.”
William Haver, “TBOTD” pg 7 – “the AIDS pandemic totalizes in an integrated viral relationality, at least possibly,
otherwise heterogeneous (or even heteronomous) “elements.” AIDS unites such “elements” in the totality of an
annihilation-in-common, in a technological mass death, in utter nihility. In effect, AIDS is a holocaust; in that this
holocaust bespeaks totality-as-utter-nihility, it belongs to the order of other holocaust, actualized or merely promised,
such as nuclear terror, ecological disaster, and previous (or concurrent) genocides. I do not think there is any
possibility for a consequent thinking with regard to the AIDS pandemic without this thought of totalization, any more
than there is with regard to nuclear terror, ecological disaster, or other genocides. But in each case, such a totality
must be thought of as a totality present only in its material effects. In other words, there is a totalization at work here,
but because the totality as such is only present in its effects, it is by that token absent for consciousness and knowing;
the “global” here, then, marks the thought of a material effectivity.”
It is important to remember, on the other hand, another alternate impact story. These harms are, in plainest terms, a
matter of ethics. The concepts of ethical action and decision calculus become radically different in the context of this
affirmation – one nowadays approaches a question of ethics with the question of whether they “should” do something.
The aff’s understanding of ethics would cease to ask the question ‘what does it mean’ in order to ask whether one
‘should’ do something, and instead ask the question ‘what does it do’ in order to ask whether one can do something.
As Ronald Bogue argues, if there is any ethical duty whatsoever it is to intercede on behalf of the capacity for
affectivity. We must construct along a plane of immanence to show that ‘I’ and ‘other’ are no longer fixed entities, but
points of emergence within becoming. We must call for a people to come—one that is eternally minor, taken up in a
becoming-revolutionary. Bogue 2007 (Ronald, Deleuze’s Way 12-14) In order to escape a representational logic that
precludes all other possibilities, our affirmation reads the resolution as an aphorism, a text that challenges one to find
the forces that contribute to its meaning as well as hook the text up to the force that gives it meaning, or create a new
one. Deleuze and Guattari cite Nietzsche, saying:
“if you want to know what I mean, find the force that gives what I say meaning, and a new meaning if need be. Hook
the text up to this force. In this way, there are no problems of interpretation for Nietzsche, there are only problems of
machining: to machine Nietzsche's text, to find out which actual external force will get something through, like a current
of energy.(Deleuze, Desert Islands, 256)
This historicization of the nuclear weapon establishes its contingency and attempts to account for its existence in
relation to the refrain that preceded and has since followed it into the current epoch --- participation in this refrain is in
preparation for a people to come that allow for a revolutionary understanding of the nuclear bomb as an idea: thus we
contend---
1: That the nuclear weapon’s existence was radically contingent upon the forces of capitalism and fascism that
contributed to its articulation as an object and as a weapon.
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2: The creative and destructive forces at work prior to the decision to harness the energies of the atom and tie them to
the State in nuclear weapons embody a radical deterritorialization of thought.
3: In each debate round, from jump street, in the interim between when the timer starts and the judge signs the ballot,
there is a deterritorialization of thought because of the radical possibilities of what can take place in that space.
The act of casting the ballot affirmative is a reterritorializing act insofar as it demarcates and draws out a ‘result’ from
deterritorialized space but this is only an ancillary effect of the refrain in which the affirmation participates. Our
contentions above all participate in and are aspects of a Refrain. (ATP 312)This refrain is the little rhythms of thought
that contribute to the coming revolution of thought, of knowledge, of politics and the possibility of all three. To think of it
one way, at the end of each round, the judge votes, in the same sense that the bird sings, the wolf shits, the human
being communicates and/or moves.(ATP 312) The bird’s song is essential// to its ‘birdiness’ just as the wolf’s shits to
mark its territory is essential to its ‘wolfiness’. Thus, voting is essential to ‘debatyness’ A refrain is aspects of an event
or experience that create a territory- the bird sings, the wolf shits, the human communicates. However, our affirmation
is of a particular type of refrain insofar as instead of only casting a territory or imagining a world, it recognizes the
contingency of the existence of the nuclear weapon the way WE envision it, which has all the attendant effects of
revealing the fascist system in an effort to produce ideas that disrupt its smooth function. This refrain is performed to
disrupt this smooth function and produce new ideas, practical ideas, new concepts and tools. This means we get to
say we affirm the resolution, but it's not a matter of signing a bill into law, but us talking about it in this context, at this
moment alters the way nuclear weapons function within debate. To think of it another way, an affirmation disrupts the
apparatus of the state by disrupting the way nuclear weapons function in discourse; this disruption reveals the fascism
that relies on nuclear weapons, and allows us to establish new praxis against that fascism by refusing to accept its
status as normative.
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Binghamton Fountain/Torsiello (Aliens) [Ogi]
Observation One: We’ve Had Contact
Obama’s administration has laid the groundwork and is committed to the disclosure of UFO files presently kept hidden
Michael Salla 5/28/2009 [former Assistant Professor in International Peace and Conflict Resolution at American
University] “Obama review of classified files linked to UFOs,” d/l; http://www.examiner.com/x-2383-Honolulu-
Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m5d28-Obama-review-of-classified-files-linked-to-UFOs
President Obama is attempting … efforts to learn about UFOs.
Even if Obama fails to disclose classified knowledge, open contact with ETs is inevitable.
Webre, Alfred 2/20/2009 [Yale-trained environmental lawyer and former General Counsel to New York's Environmental
Protection Administration, MEd, ternational director of the Institute for Cooperation in Space] “Barack Obama’s
inaugural speech predicts “extraterrestrial event” on scale of Iraq war says expert,” d/l: http://www.examiner.com/x-
2912-Seattle-Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m2d20-Barack-Obamas-inaugural-speech-predicts-extraterrestrial-event-on-
scale-of-Iraq-war-says-expert
On objective analysis, Barack Obama’s … military and spiritual impact as the war in Iraq.”
Unfortunately, disclosure within the present political climate will only create xenophobia and increased tensions
Burkes d/l 7/30/2007 (Joseph [MD & Independent Researcher for the Center for the Study of Extraterrestrial
Intelligence] “Cosmic Peace,”http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/esp_galacticdiplomacy_05.htm)
As a former peace movement activist, I find … arms race against an unlikely adversary.
Sadly, America’s posturing in such a climate risks sparking an intergalactic war
Canadian Exopolitics Initiative 2005 “Former Canadian Minister Of Defense Asks Canadian Parliament To Hold
Hearings On Relations With Alien "ET" Civilizations,” d/l;
http://exopolitics.blogs.com/star_dreams_initiative/2005/08/star_dreams_ini.html
A former Canadian Minister of … high level military intelligence witnesses of a possible ET presence, is also one of the
organizations seeking Canadian Parliament hearings.
Plan: The President of the United States Federal Government should issue an executive order to immediately
dismantle the entire United States nuclear weapons arsenal.
Observation Two: Out of This World
Obama’s willingness to follow through with his promise to create a nuclear free world is essential to establishing peace
with ETs
Salla 4/4/2009 (Michael [former Assistant Professor in International Peace and Conflict Resolution at American
University] “Obama’s zero nuclear weapons speech & extraterrestrial UFOs,” d/l: http://www.examiner.com/x-2383-
Honolulu-Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m4d4-Obamas-nuclear-weapons-free-world--extraterrestrial-UFOs
Tomorrow morning President Obama … monitoring our world and destructive stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
Failure to take action and eliminate nuclear weapons will further an era of power politics that disregards ethics and
universal peace in the name of national interest, secrecy, xenophobic hatred, resulting in the development of new-
wave high-tech weaponry, and ultimately preventing the creation of a balanced global defense
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Salla 1/1/2004 (Michael [former Assistant Professor in International Peace and Conflict Resolution at American
University] “The Failure of Power Politics as a Strategic Response to the Extraterrestrial
Presence,”http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/exopolitica/esp_exopolitics_P_1.htm)
‘Power politics’ refers to the Realpolitik … underway and a coordinated response to the extraterrestrial presence.
Thankfully, Obama has opened the right astrological pathways to enable Earth to rejoin the Universe Society if he can
move American beyond its war path, which will be able to successfully spark the needed positive energy to change the
world
Barbara Hand-Clow 1/26/2009 [renowned astrologer and International Mayan Elder] “Sun in Gemini Moon in Aquaris,”
d/l;http://www.docstoc.com/docs/5951937/sun-in-gemini-moon-in-aquarius
It is the New Moon in Aquarius, the time … George W. Bush's presidential tombstone. 6
However, we must remain vigilant since even one nuclear weapon will undermine our ability to establish a culture of
peace
Elaine Meinel Supkis 2007 “Tear Down All Those Walls,” d/l;
http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/war_and_peace/2007/04/index.html
At a Headquarters press conference this … peace are seen as enemies of the State.
Fortunately, the reward for abolishing nuclear weapons is worth the price because entry into the Universe Society will
prevent numerous scenarios of planetary extinction and omnicide
Webre, Alfred 2008 [Yale-trained environmental lawyer and former General Counsel to New York’s Environmental
Protection Administration, MEd, ternational director of the Institute for Cooperation in Space] “Politics, Government,
and Law in the Universe,” Journal of World Affairs, Vol. 12 No. 2, Summer 2008, d/l:
http://exopolitics.blogs.com/exopolitics/2008/11/world-affairs-the-journal-of-international-issues-exopolitics-and-a-
positive-human-future-by-alfred-lambremont-webre-jd-m.html
Advanced ethical extraterrestrial society … planetary, human and biosphere survival.
Even if none of our intergalactic scenarios are true, working to abolishing nuclear weapons within the framework of
exopolitics can usher in a new era of terrestrial peace and avert the proliferating wars and extinctions ongoing in the
status-quo
Burkes d/l 7/30/2007 (Joseph [MD & Independent Researcher for the Center for the Study of Extraterrestrial
Intelligence] “Cosmic Peace,”http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/esp_galacticdiplomacy_05.htm)
To help prevent war and hopefully usher in … is much work to be done!
As a result we must understand politics as more than just an academic exercise since our universal rights are up for
grabs, and whether it ends in violent repression or freedom is up to us
Webre 11-1-2000 (Alfred Lambremont [JD; international director of the Institute for Cooperation in Space] “The end of
terrestrial politics?” Econews Service, http://www.ecologynews.com/cuenews5.html)
What matters now is that we … is in some sense up to us.
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California Brockaway/Patel (Critical-Ethics) [Arif]
Contention 1: The Atomic Body Politic
The Sacred and The Holy are two distinct ways of orienting ourselves towards Others. While the Sacred embodies a
view of innate superiority that perceives others with mistrust and disdain, the Holy strives to nonviolently actualize
human dignity and respect in place of inhospitable relationships. Politics then, is merely a universe of relationships,
and choices and decisions, a way of organizing our position in that universe.
Fasching and deChant 2001
Darell and Dell, professor and director of undergraduate studies in the department of religious studies at the University
of South Florida, Comparative Religious Ethics: A Narrative Approach, p. 10
These ideologies manifest in explicitly different ways. The Sacred takes the form of an apologetic theology, which acts
out of mistrust and precipitates escalation and violence. The Holy is an alienated theology, which acts out of hope and
compassion, and in so doing, de-centers the self. Questioning subjectivity lays hope for stable relationships built out of
hospitality.
Fasching 1993
Darrell, professor of religious studies at the University of South Florida, The Ethical Challenge of Auschwitz and
Hiroshima, p. 2-6
Nuclear deterrence embodies the Sacred. The mere possession of nuclear weapons is deeply violent; it denotes a
conditional willingness to slaughter masses of innocent civilians. The ultimate paradox is that in attempting to assert
control, nuclear politics deprives us of control over all the beautiful features of principled living. It is preferable to take a
moral stance than to subscribe to violent axioms.
Dummett 1986
Michael, professor of Logic at Oxford University, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Disarmament, ed. Copp,
Canadian Journal of Philosophy, Supplementary Volume 12
More important than physical deployment of weapons, nuclear posturing is deeply wrapped up in a genocidal,
institutional ideology which treats life as disposable.
Lifton and Markuson 1990
Robert, professor of psychiatry and psychology at the Graduate School University Center, Erik, Professor at South
State University, p. 3
This is a form of hostage holding. Willingness to exchange innocent life en masse for compliance with our political
goals is deeply immoral. Any decision calculus which treats individuals as a means to an end must be rejected.
Lee 1993
Steven, Philosophy at Hobart and William Smith College, Morality, Prudence, and Nuclear Weapons, p. 45
Strategizing around the necessity of instruments of genocide in this way infinitely sidelines morality for fear mongering
and killing to heal. Psychic numbing, the idea that we repress anxiety in relation to the bomb, is a dangerous tool that
allows us to engage in deeply violent acts without reservation.
Fasching 1993
Hiroshima, p. 115-120
This debate is not about determining whether or not nuclear weapons are useful. Rather, it is about activating
ourselves in a struggle for something true and sincere. Rejecting the false choices of technocratic thinking is the
essential leap of faith for resisting psychological devastation.
Kovel 1984
Joel, psychotherapist and activist, Against the State of Nuclear Terror, p. 155-156
THE PLAN –
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ABOLISH THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL.
Contention 2: The Blueprint
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Voting aff is more than a call to quantitatively reduce warheads. It embodies a refusal to submit ourselves to the
violence of nuclear reasoning, and a willingness to take a nonviolent leap of faith in the face of recurring paranoia.
Disarmament rejects the violence of the Sacred and inscribes ethics in the violent space of international politics.
Kovel 1984
Joel, Psychotherapist and Activist, Against the State of Nuclear Terror, p. 201-208
Finally, personal responsibility is central to the debate over nuclear deterrence. As a strategy, deterrence is
underwritten by public opinion, and as citizens in a representative democracy, we have rendered ourselves either
politically impotent or acquiescent. Refusing the precept that murder of millions can ever be justified is the essential
criteria for ethical decision making.
Patten 1986
Steven, professor of philosophy at the University of Lethbridge, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Disarmament, ed.
Copp, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, Supplementary Volume 12
AFF as of KY
Contention 1 is Hostage Holding.
The mere possession of nuclear weapons is violent because it holds masses of innocent civilians hostage to a
conditional threat of nuclear annihilation. As a decision maker, you must reject policies which subordinate ethics to risk
aversion, or else moral living ceases to be an option. Appeal to consequences cannot excuse unethical choices
because that expresses an unconditional acceptance of a world of violence, in which we must take risks with the lives
of innocents.
Dummett 1986
As we have seen, … do with nuclear weapons.
Nuclear speculation is ultimately enlightened guessing which serves to nihilistically reinforce the status quo. The idea
that a disadvantage has absolute probability if it is not answered directly is preposterous because our contention is that
the entire enterprise of guessing should not be used to undermine ethical decision making.
Cohen, Professor Philosophy at U Maryland, 1987
Avner, Review: Lackey on Nuclear Deterrence: A Public Policy Critique or Applied Ethics Analysis?, Vol. 97, No. 2
(Jan., 1987), pp. 457-472
To give risk a more concrete appearance, …of nuclear deterrence?
This value proposition extends across all decision making. Any calculus which treats individuals as a means to an end
must be rejected because it imposes harm on innocents.
Lee 1993
Hostage holding is morally …be morally acceptable.
Nuclear possession implicates all life. Even if outside the direct thinking of everyday life, our way of being is inherently
structured by belief in the necessity of withholding nuclear violence as legitimate recourse. Striving to reclaim ethical
orientation must always be a prior consideration to the evaluation of policy outcomes.
Tucker, Professor of Politics Princeton, 1985
Robert, Ethics, Vol. 95, No. 3, Special Issue: Symposium on Ethics and Nuclear Deterrence (Apr., 1985)
We live in the age of deterrence. … they have to run the terrible risk of attacking us?
The United States federal government should eliminate the United States federal government’s nuclear weapons
arsenal.
Contention 2 is Nonviolent Decision Making.
Choices must ultimately involve more than dogmatic adherence to continuity of life. Nuclear war has already imposed
an understanding of technocracy that has compromised the values that make life worth living. Only refusal can
reinvigorate decision making.
Kovel 1984
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If this is the value of the facts… rescuing reason from the clutches of the technocratic state.
Expressing ourselves authentically involves embracing risk and suffering. Nonviolent suffering is not an end to be
avoided, but rather a possibility which must be embraced. Paranoia is a life negating force, and only reconciling
ourselves with these feelings of insecurity can reclaim meaning from the depths of nuclear deterrence.
Kovel 1984
Nonviolent detachment is … fearlessness and hope.
Unilateral nuclear disarmament is the critical refusal to subscribe to violent decision making which is crucial to reorient
politics towards nonviolence.
Kovel 1984
Fresh heights of irrationality … line of a nuclear assault.
Continuing to appeal to the necessity to violate the integrity of innocent life plays into the hands of a security strategy
which can only reproduce unending examples of genocidal violence.
Holt, BBC Commentator, 1995
Jim, Morality, Reduced to Arithmetic, New York Times
Can the deliberate massacre … and morality to arithmetic.
Whatever decision calculus we choose must be absolute. Any expression of willingness to sacrifice innocent life for
some ulterior end plays into the self-serving hands of those in power and legitimizes a might makes right mentality
which ends in genocidal violence.
Parsons accessed 2009
9/14, John, Deconstructing Mr. Farah: The Fallacy of a Utilitarian Ethic
In philosophy, pragmatism …The choice of whom you will believe is ultimately yours.
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California Gray/Srivangipuram (Critical-Ethics) [Arif]
The Sacred and The Holy are two distinct ways of orienting ourselves towards Others. While the Sacred embodies a
view of innate superiority that perceives others with mistrust and disdain, the Holy strives to nonviolently actualize
human dignity and respect in place of inhospitable relationships. Politics then, is merely a universe of relationships,
and choices and decisions, a way of organizing our position in that universe.
Fasching and deChant 2001
Darell and Dell, professor and director of undergraduate studies in the department of religious studies at the University
of South Florida, Comparative Religious Ethics: A Narrative Approach, p. 10
“Human religiousness is defined… my identity and my stories.”
These ideologies manifest in explicitly different ways. The Sacred takes the form of an apologetic theology, which acts
out of mistrust and precipitates escalation and violence. The Holy is an alienated theology, which acts out of hope and
compassion, and in so doing, de-centers the self. Questioning subjectivity lays hope for stable relationships built out of
hospitality.
Fasching 1993
Hiroshima, p. 2-6
This book is an experiment in decentered… in the process of alienated theology.
Nuclear deterrence embodies the Sacred. The mere possession of nuclear weapons is deeply violent; it denotes a
conditional willingness to slaughter masses of innocent civilians. The ultimate paradox is that in attempting to assert
control, nuclear politics deprives us of control over all the beautiful features of principled living. It is preferable to take a
moral stance than to subscribe to violent axioms.
Dummett 1986
As we have seen, a genuinely idle threat… anything to do with nuclear weapons.
More important than physical deployment of weapons, nuclear posturing is deeply wrapped up in a genocidal,
institutional ideology which treats life as disposable.
Lifton and Markuson 1990
Robert, professor of psychiatry and psychology at the Graduate School University Center, Erik, Professor at South
State University, p. 3
The United States and the Soviet Union… arrangements necessary for the genocidal act.
This is a form of hostage holding. Willingness to exchange innocent life en masse for compliance with our political
goals is deeply immoral. Any decision calculus which treats individuals as a means to an end must be rejected.
Lee 1993
Hostage holding is morally wrong… threatening such retaliation may be morally acceptable.
Strategizing around the necessity of instruments of genocide in this way infinitely sidelines morality for fear mongering
and killing to heal. Psychic numbing, the idea that we repress anxiety in relation to the bomb, is a dangerous tool that
allows us to engage in deeply violent acts without reservation.
Fasching 1993
Hiroshima, p. 115-120
After Auschwitz and Hiroshima… total darkness of planetary suicide.
This debate is not about determining whether or not nuclear weapons are useful. Rather, it is about activating
ourselves in a struggle for something true and sincere. Rejecting the false choices of technocratic thinking is the
essential leap of faith for resisting psychological devastation.
Kovel 1984
If this is the value of the facts,… clutches of the technocratic state.
THE PLAN –
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THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ENACT A POLICY MANDATING DISARMAMENT OF
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARSENAL.
Contention 2: The Blueprint
Voting aff is more than a call to quantitatively reduce warheads. It embodies a refusal to submit ourselves to the
violence of nuclear reasoning, and a willingness to take a nonviolent leap of faith in the face of recurring paranoia.
Disarmament rejects the violence of the Sacred and inscribes ethics in the violent space of international politics.
Kovel 1984
Fresh heights of irrationality open… in the front line of a nuclear assault.
Finally, personal responsibility is central to the debate over nuclear deterrence. As a strategy, deterrence is
underwritten by public opinion, and as citizens in a representative democracy, we have rendered ourselves either
politically impotent or acquiescent. Refusing the precept that murder of millions can ever be justified is the essential
criteria for ethical decision making.
Patten 1986
Steven, professor of philosophy at the University of Lethbridge, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Disarmament, ed.
Copp, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, Supplementary Volume 12
My suggestion for understanding individual… for individual responsibility might be rebutted.)
SFSU opener
Round 1 vs. Southwestern Fite/Peck
1AC from Gonzaga
2AC:
AT: Disposal Specification

Weapons are considered part of the arsenal until they are actually dismantled
Perry, Chairman Strategic Posture Commission, ‘9
(William J.-, James R. Schlesinger, “The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of
the United States”, “America’s Strategic Posture”, http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf; Jacob)
The third concern is about… disclosure of stockpile information.
Normal means is just dismantling
We won't no-link out of anything, so no abuse
There is no resolutional basis for requiring disposal specification.
AT: Socialism K
Our critique of the nuclear complex is ultimately a critique of the modern state and capitalism.
Chernus 1991
Ira, Associated Professor of Religious Studies @ University of Colorado Nuclear Madness: Religion and the
Psychology of the Nuclear Age, p. 62-
Indeed the entire nuclear weapons… must protect the entire machine forever.
Revolution is no good. We need a social transformation that is non-violent and broader-based than the kind the
negative favors.
Kovel 1984
Joel, psychotherapist and activist, Against the State of Nuclear Terror, p. 224
Will it come to revolution… we look through nuclear terror.
Alt can't solve numbing, which is a prerequisite to eliminating violence
AT: CP: Dispose of nuclear material in ocean

They reduce nature to a standing reserve
Neil Evernden, professor of Enviornmental Stuides at York, The social Creation of Nature, 1992, p. 130
In his study of endangered species….there seems no threat of insurrection
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Reduces nature into pure energy.

Charles Bergman, professor at PLU, Wild Echoes, 1990, p. 5-7
But this concept is limited by…for cancer will come from
Outweighs extinction
Michael E. Zimmerman, professor of philosophy at Tulane, Contesting Earth’s Future: Radical Ecology and
Postmodernity, 1994, net-library
Heidegger asserted that human self-assertion…hell on earth, masquerading as a material paradise.
The judge is an ethical decision maker; can decide not to dispose of waste on native lands
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Case Western Mattern/Wolf (Critical) [Mark]
GSU Aff Disclosure
Contention One:
In 1944, von Neumann and Morgenstern published their seminal work on game theory—they used applied
mathematics in economics to determine strategic behavior.
By the start of the cold war and the nuclear age, game theory was popularized as America’s “secret weapon”: political
scientists used game theory to determine how to interact with other states and how to maintain America’s advantage
over the Soviet Union.
Belletto 09. Steven Belletto, Assistant Professor at Lafayette College and specialist in Cold War literature, “The Game
Theory Narrative and the Myth of the National Security State,” American Quarterly (2009): 333-357.
“As the cold war…against the Soviets.”
Game theory in international relations is different—it uses mathematical models to predict how states will act and
whether it is more beneficial to cooperate or defect. The outcome of state interactions is determined by each state’s
assumptions about the interests of the others. Game theory assumes that divergent interests create conflict, and it
requires states to treat each other as enemies.
Wendt 99. Alexander Wendt, Ralph D. Mershon Professor of International Security at the Ohio State University, Social
Theory of International Politics, 1999, p.331-332.
“Power relations play….they will make”
In nuclear weapons policy, the problem of assuming other states are enemies is especially telling. For example,
conflict over the size of a weapons arsenal, the management of rogue nations, and military aid has prevented any
substantial U.S. or Russia nuclear arms reduction. The United States refuses to reduce its nuclear arsenal any further
than Russia promises to reduce its.
New York Times 09. “U.S.-Russia Nuclear Agreement Is First Step in Broad Effort.” New York Times, 7 July 2009,
Lexis.
“The progress reflected…2,000 to 3,000 warheads.”
The insistence on a negotiated and reciprocal arms reduction is part of our larger diplomatic strategy:
Negotiated diplomacy is based on game theory’s assumption that the international system is comprised by actors with
divergent interests naturally resistant to cooperation. Not only is this assumption a construction, but it ensures state
conflict to the point of making nuclear conflict thinkable.
Fierke 98. KM Fierke, Lecturer at Queen’s University. Changing Games, Changing Strategies. p. 135-138
The impacts are manifold:
First, the assumption of bargaining ensures conflict.
Lebow 98. [Richard Ned Lebow, the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government at Dartmouth College
and a Visiting Fellow at the University of Cambridge. He has his own Wikipedia page.] EJIR 4(1):31-66
“I begin by…to influence them.”
Second, it guarantees war and institutional violence.
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Bagshaw 04, Dr. D.M. Bagshaw, researcher and practioioner in conflict mediation, Group for Mediation Studies,
University of South Austrlia, “Verbal Abuse and Adolescent Identities: Marking the Boundaries of Gender,”
http://www.unisa.edu.au/ hawkeinstitute/cpcm/documents/ dale%20bagshaw%20thesis.pdf
“In common with….and reproduced an interaction.”
Third, our nuclear weapons policy is based on the idea that some nations are competent enough to have nuclear
weapons while others are not. This discourse is part of a larger production of otherness and racist ideology that seeks
to create the fantasy of the perfect America through the demonization of others.
Gusterson 99, Hugh Gusterson, Professor of Anthroplogy and Science and Technology at the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, "Nuclear Weapons and the Other in the Western Imagination." Cultural Anthropology 14(1):111-143
(1999)
“Thus in Western…institutions and states.”
The plan solves:
First, by unilaterally eliminating its nuclear weapons arsenal, America would change the rules of the game.
Actors can change how they interact with each other by changing their assumptions. This is empirically proven by the
largest change in the history of international politics: the cold war ended because Reagan and Gorbachev decided to
see the other actor as cooperative, not conflictual.
KM Fierke 98, Changing Games, Changing Strategies pg. 20-24
Second, a unilateral elimination of nuclear weapons is self-binding behavior. By eliminating its nuclear weapons,
America imposes a visible sacrifice on itself. Anarchy is what states make of it, and this self-binding behavior forms
collective identities among states paramount to international cooperation.
Third, it is because states can work to change their assumptions, especially in rational choice and game theory, they
we can change the international system’s culture.
Four, international cooperation is key to solving climate change, terrorism, and to curb negative social externalities.
The plan overcomes the “self-help” state behavior characteristic in the nuclear age.
Muller 08. Harold Muller, Director of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt in Germany and a professor of
international relations, “The Future of Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World,”The Washington Quarterly 31.2
(2008): 62-75
“Today’s international environment…the major powers.”
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Central Oklahoma Koslow/Spurlock (Critical-Spanos) [Jake]
1ac description
The aff indicts Western metaphysics' desire to create the world into binaries, with one being considered full and
productive and the other void of value, fit to be objectified and abused. This has been the root of American imperialism,
with things like nuclear testing, mining, and waste all being done in the desert. This is because the desert is seen as
absent of life and value-the unproductive end of a binary. The affirmative affirms the nothing of the resolution,
acknowledging that any metaphysical statement contains within it both a supposedly filled material logic and a space
of emptiness that is glossed over, and thus becomes an exceptional space that must be conquered or made
productive. Affirming the desert is key because it is devoid of metaphysics. Theory has for too long abandoned the
category of ontology, so we must begin there. The debate doesn't leave the room all that matters is how we are trained
to act.
(this is not UCO's description, but one i have typed up based on key parts of my 1ac flow. If something is inaccurate
don't jump my ass)
[includes excerpts from John Beck's article Without Form and Void: The American Desert as Trope and Terrain
Nepantla: Views from South - Volume 2, Issue 1, 2001, pp. 63-83
Other authors include William V. Spanos, Valerie Kuletz and Masahide Kato.
2ac at: framework

this debate doesn't leave the room. we are focusing on epistemology and ontology
line by line debate is bad-relies on static structure that favors technostrategic metaphysical thinking
by affirming everything positively we escape topical imperialism in this room
debate's technical practices train us to be neocons
predictable education-they can run their aff on the neg to answer ours
framework is calculative thinking that seeks to manage every debate. No authentic dialogue-it's just coded to reinforce
imperialism
framework is biopolitical-it makes us create enemies to be fought against
Gonzaga Prelims and Double Octafinals
Melville/Spanos –
Below is a rough outline of the 1AC – we do not read “tags” per se, but do read segments of text from the authors
listed below. If you have any questions about the 1AC itself or our affirmation of the topic we would be more than
happy discuss any and all portions of our advocacy in depth before the round.
Call me Ishmael, U COKS if you may.
Our affirmation is an excursion through a reading of mostly various parts of our readings of William V. Spanos as well
as Herman Melville's Moby Dick.
Ishmael begins the story in a way that calls forth the thinking/saying of his journey. "Call me Ishmael" signals his sense
of a-partness on this journey - and indeed we are all on a topical journey this year. From our exilic perspective we have
come to view the resolution in a different way that is simultaneously a-part of and a-part from the traditional
insturmental reading of the resolution.
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Following a similar mode of inquiry as the past, we affirm the topical nothing that belongs to and is inside of the topic.
It is from this position of exile that we should view current politics, that is the task of the thinker in the interregnum.
Footnotes
[1] Melville, Moby
[1] Melville, Moby Dick pp. 22-30

[1] Black Velvet Flag, Come Recline With Me, Code Blue
[1] Spanos, William V. - American exceptionalism in the age of globalization: the specter of Vietnam. Pp 7
[1] Lucy 2004 (Dr Niall Lucy. MA, University of Western Australia; PhD, University of Sydney. A Derrida Dictionary,
Blackwell Publishing. Pages 114-115)
[1] Spanos, William V. - American exceptionalism in the age of globalization: the specter of Vietnam__. Pp 321
[1] Ibid PP 321
[1] Weber 2005 (Samuel, Professor of Humanities at Northwestern - Targets of Opportunity On the Militarization of
Thinking - Fordham University Press New York 2005)
[1] Ibid p 185
[1] The "Nameless Horror": The Errant Art of Herman Melville and Charles Hewitt, by William V. Spanos © 1980 Duke
University Press. 127
[1] Spanos 2003 (William V. The "Nameless Horror": The Errant Art of Herman Melville and Charles Hewitt – Ebsco)
[1] Heidegger, Martin. What is Called Thinking?, Harper & Row publishers, 1954 – Page 4
[1] The Errant Art of Moby-Dick: The Canon, the Cold War, and the Struggle for American Studies (New Americanists)
p267
[1] Spanos 2000 (The Question of Philosophy and Poiesis in the Posthistorical Age: Thinking/Imagining the Shadow of
Metaphysics, )
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Central Oklahoma Spomer/Sales
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Central Oklahoma Sales/Spomer (Critical-Indians) [Jake]
The aff indicts Western metaphysics' desire to create the world into binaries, with one being considered full and
productive and the other void of value, fit to be objectified and abused. This has been the root of American imperialism,
with things like nuclear testing, mining, and waste all being done in the desert. This is because the desert is seen as
absent of life and value-the unproductive end of a binary. The affirmative affirms the nothing of the resolution,
acknowledging that any metaphysical statement contains within it both a supposedly filled material logic and a space
of emptiness that is glossed over, and thus becomes an exceptional space that must be conquered or made
productive. Affirming the desert is key because it is devoid of metaphysics. Theory has for too long abandoned the
category of ontology, so we must begin there. The debate doesn't leave the room all that matters is how we are trained
to act.
(this is not UCO's description, but one i have typed up based on key parts of my 1ac flow. If something is inaccurate
don't jump my ass)
Gonzaga
Despite governmental attempts to cover up its past, in 1946 based on a capitalist ethic of divine right and exploitation,
the United States began its policy of nuclear testing on indigenous nations and in 1954 the Marshall Islands were
targeted by the first dirty bomb creatively named “Bravo”. Meanwhile the indigenous peoples living on the islands were
deemed as no more than savage and therefore suitable guinea pigs in order to test the effects of radiation. The
aftermath of these bombs has resulted in some of the greatest atrocities seen throughout history. Furthermore, these
are not issues of the past but ones that still continue to haunt indigenous people today causing dispossession, and
destroying their culture, autonomy and lives all in the name of national security. In a 1987 interview Jenny Dowell and
Patrick Flanagan discuss further the nuclear destruction that many indigenous people have been forced to face over
the last sixty years.
THE NUCLEAR PACIFIC: AN INTERVIEW WITH PATRICK FLANAGAN
The problems that the United States have created on Indigenous lands are at the cost of many indigenous peoples
freedoms and lives and is not a just a problem of the past, but rather a continuing genocide in the form of dumping,
mining, testing and military invasion that the government and its people refuse to acknowledge. The US nuclear policy
is not now and will never be neutral but instead it is infiltrated with racist actions and ideologies that have produced
atrocities such as Nazi doctors, forced sterilization, cultural imperialism and death. Indigenous beliefs and cultural are
not only lost but can never be recovered from this nuclear colonization.
Trask in 2004
Haunani Kay Trask. The Color of Violence. Social Justice, Vol. 31, 2004
We reject the role of nuclear weapons as it pertains to the creation of the nuclear landscape.
Kuletz 98 The Tainted Desert
Traditionally, debate produces a particular type of scholarship that consistently ignores and rejects alternative
viewpoints and systems of knowledge. We believe that nuclear weapons are a necessary technological development
that protects our great nation from foreign predators, all the while forgetting about those that have to endure the
repercussions of nuclear development, those on the margins that have felt the violence of colonization and western
imperialism. It is our advocacy that that we should interrupt the dominant paradigm embedded within academia by
investigating other forms of knowledge production in order to make liberation possible.
Vine Deloria Jr. in 1999
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Clarion Ciak/Swanlek (Critical-Democracy) [DCH]
Observation I: Fear of Risk
We begin with a brief synopsis of the development of the nuclear bomb

from the book Danger and Survival by McGeorge Bundy, who served as
National Security Advisor to JFK. Despite the fear that Germany would
be racing towards the bomb, Bundy tells of a German scientific elite
detached from Hitler’s politics who explicitly, and successfully,
worked to keep a German bomb off the table. In America however, Bundy
identifies two key scientists, Leo Szilard and Vannevar Bush, who
feared the risk of a German bomb and persuaded FDR that Hitler
couldn’t be allowed to get there, and that the British MAUD Report was
accurate in arguing for the bomb as a deterrent but as a weapon of
use. Furthermore, the American General Leslie Groves continued the
full court press for the bomb even after American intelligence had
clear evidence that there was no German bomb.
We open with this brief history as a way of attenuating the fact that
we inhabit a world of risk. This is not a world where we know what
will occur around us but instead is a world where we think we know.
It is a world not understood in terms of immediate threats or even
risk as probability times magnitude, but rather a world of
uncertainty. Ulrich Beck is wrong: it is not the Risk Society but the
Risk Perception Society. Bill Durodie, a senior lecturer at Cranfield
University in Risk and Security, explains in 2005:
Durodié, Senior Lecturer in Risk and Security at Cranfield University, 2005

[Bill, The Concept of Risk, http://www.durodie.net/pdf/HEALTH.pdf,
access 6-19-09]
Risk is an abstraction that represents AND our understanding,

competence and will.
The use risk to identify low probability, big impact claims justifies
policy based on the possible over the probable resulting in
ineffective but high-prolife policies.

access 6-19-09]
Combined with the contemporary cultural proclivity AND thereby driving

those concerns still further.
The result is that risks come to be seen as things to be feared and

managed because some action is better than no action
McInnes, Professor of International Politics at the University of

Wales-Aberystwyth, 2005
[Colin, HEALTH, SECURITY AND THE RISK SOCIETY,
http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/ecomm/files/HSecrisksoc.pdf, access
6-19-09]
A number of points emerge from AND risk is absolute rather than probabilistic.
The logic of risk relies on a politics of fear that cedes the

political to managers. This kills public deliberation.
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access 6-19-09]
All of these developments have had AND the issues of health and security.
Deliberation is essential for solving all problems. Boggs, National

University Social Science Professor, in 2000:
Carl Boggs, Professor of Social Sciences and Film Studies at National

University, Los Angeles, 2000, The End of Politics, p. 245.
The disintegration of political life in AND shape the future of human societies.
Observation II: Nuclear Risk

The conceptualization of risk identified above dominates current
understandings of the nuclear arms race. The logic of risk is
constantly deployed to justify control and management of the nuclear
arsenal. Hugh Gusterson, a George Mason Anthropology professor,
explains in May of 2009:
Gusterson, professor of anthropology and sociology at George Mason, 2009

[Hugh, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, May/June, BAS database]
The status quo. Our established AND that keep the avalanche at bay.
Accepting the bomb as inevitable reduces policy to management and

destroys human agency. Gusterson, previously cited:

But the status quo narrative also AND weapons exist because the weapons exist.
We don’t have to spin a giant story about the risk of nuclear weapons
“proliferation” because the danger created by the presence of the bomb
sells itself. Frida Berrigan, Senior Program Associate at the New
America Foundation's Arms and Security Initiative, recounts the horror
of Hiroshima and Nagasaki earlier in 2009:
Berrigan, a Senior Program Associate at the New America Foundation's

Arms and Security Initiative, 2009
[Frida, For the Sixty-Fourth Time: No More Nuclear War - Reflections
on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Our World,
http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news/1/4470-again-no-nukes.html,
access 9-4-09]
In Hiroshima, Little Boy's huge AND an outspoken proponent of nuclear

disarmament.
Movement towards the elimination of nuclear weapons is at a

standstill. Fear of the risk has left us with a policy of management
and control instead of elimination. The time for arms control has
passed; disarm is needed now. Tim Wright of the International
Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, 2009:
Wright, President, of the Peace Organisation of Australia and Board
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Member of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, 2009

[Tim, Melbourne Journal of International Law, ebsco]
In 1996, the International Court AND elimination, not merely arms control.
And, before you say “Obama,” even his call for disarm falls short of
sincere. Schell, 09:
Schell, Peace Fellow at The Nation Institute and teaches a course on

the nuclear dilemma at Yale, 4-15-09
[Jonathan, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090504/schell]
Unfortunately, as soon as he AND , will go on as before.
Therefore the plan: The United States Federal Government should

eliminate its nuclear weapons arsenal and all roles and missions for
its nuclear weapons.
Observation III: Taking Risks
We need to reject the fear-based, piecemeal politics of the status quo

and learn to take risks. Durodie, 02:
Durodié, Director of the International Centre for Security Analysis at

King’s College London, 2002
[Bill, Homeland Security & Resilience Monitor Vol.1, No.4, November
2002, pp.16-18, http://www.durodie.net/pdf/PerceptionandThreat.pdf,
access 6-19-09]
The main asymmetry exploited by those AND greater purpose, drive and meaning?
The endorsement of abolition is our effort to demonstrate the power of

human agency. Gusterson, 2009:

Clearly the abolitionist narrative has momentum AND last speech before
he was assassinated.
Government based on risk as fear can never solve. Reversing the

understanding of risk is critical to solving our Boggs evidence and
providing true security
Durodie, Senior Fellow co-ordinating the Homeland Defence research

programme in the Centre of Excellence for National Security of the
S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang
Technological University, Singapore and Associate Fellow of the
International Security Programme at the Royal Institute of
International Affairs, 8-3-09
[Bill, Straits Times, http://www.durodie.net/index.php/site/article/130/]
THE proper role, composition and AND in order to achieve great things.
Viewing disarm through obstacles skews the world in which nuclear

abolition can actually occur – All of the current risk logic assumes a
world of negatives. We aren’t just saying end the double standard of
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US Nuclear ambitions we are also affirming the idea that your

“authors” cannot assume the world of abolition in which we endorse.
Other countries would not have the ability to argue anymore, and all
powers would unite in our cause. Schell 09:
Schell, Peace Fellow at the Nation Institute and teaches a course on

[Jonathon, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/abolishing_nuclear_weapons_debate.pdf,
pa 9-14-9]
The very editorial restriction that has AND world on its way to abolition.
It is up to us to help turn Obama’s invitation to disarm into a

reality. Only our participation can generate the historic. Schell,
one more time:
Schell, Peace Fellow at The Nation Institute and teaches a course on

[Jonathan, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090504/schell]
The answer, of course, AND while he is still among us.
GSU Round 2 vs. Wake DT
AT: Consult NATO
1. Case is a DA – CP enables Elites to control the public through a Politics of Fear over *NB*
2. Case is a DA – CP leaves some nuclear weapons – Berrigan Identifies the weapons as innately bad
3. No Solvency – The source of the question is key

Dillon 96
Michael Dillon senior lecturer in politics and international relations @ university of Lancaster Politics of Security
Towards a Political Philosophy of Continental Thought 1996 p 22-23
However much it is therefore stimulated by the interrogatory disposition of the genealogist... offers a way - I think,
perhaps, the way - of opening-up the question of the political.
4. No Solvency – PIC re-entrenches Status Quo Risk Technologies and leads to bad policies – McInnes in the 1AC
5. No Solvency – CP is a vulnerability-led response based on avoiding Harms which our Guterson Solvency evidence
indites
6. No Solvency – CP does not embrace a narrative of DisArm which is crucial to lasting change and is proven to be a
more believable
7. CP Links to Das
8. Consult Bad Theory
9. CP doesn’t solve – the inclusion of the Net Benefit rhetoric ensures the perception of a risk, even if accepting a lack
of probability
Daase, Chair in International Organisation at the University of Frankfurt, 2007
[Christopher, International Risks and the Perils of Proactive Security Policy, Sept 12-15,
http://archive.sgir.eu/uploads/Daase-daase_perils.pdf, access 6-24-09]
After the attacks of 9/11, the cooperation in the fight against international terrorism... artificially enhances the threat
perception and leads to policies that are out of proportion to the real danger.
AT: Deterrence
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1. DA is an embodiment of Risk – Insert Reason (Motivation/Cap/Ect.)
2. No Link – Da Does not Assume a world post-plan – There will be a positive view of Disarm, Countries will react
favorably, and Disarm will snowball, that’s Schell in the 1AC
3. Turn – DA leads to bad policies - The risk mentality of the DA leads to bad policymaking that takes bad actions to
‘prevent’ harms that’s McKinnis in the 1AC
4. Turn – DA cedes politics to the elite – Only embracing risks and through the affirmative can public deliberation avoid
DA’s Impacts
5. The Negative’s View of deterrence proves its flawed nature

Oerlich, Acting President of Federation of American Scientists, 2008
[Ivan, What Are Nuclear Weapons for?, April, http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200804/oelrich.cfm]
This approach is irrelevant today because the threat I need to pose is tied to the prizes... sane situation would call for
such an act, that we should find ways of dramatically reducing Russian and American arsenals.
6. Turn – DisAd claims destroy science and inhibit real efforts to solve
[Bill, The Concept of Risk, http://www.durodie.net/pdf/HEALTH.pdf, access 6-19-09]
Combined with the contemporary cultural proclivity to speculate wildly... out to make a fast buck by exploiting public
concerns, and thereby driving those concerns still further.
7. No Impact
8. Case Out Weighs – Our view of risk outweighs any possible new risks
[Bill, The Concept of Risk, http://www.durodie.net/pdf/HEALTH.pdf, access 6-19-09]
But, rather than the world changing any faster today than in the past... themselves to identifying everything as a risk.
More on Case
1. Maintaining the arsenal to justify hegemony crushes hegemony – this proves our Boggs argument
Fromm, renowned social psychologist, psychoanalyst, humanistic philosopher and democratic socialist, 1960
[Erich, Daedalus, no 4, jstor]
Finally, to take up one last criticism... the position for unilateral disarmament is the one which is most radically opposed
to the Soviet principle.
2. Only absolute rejection of nuclear weapons solves – our action can inspire the world
Prasad, First President of the Republic of India, 1962
[Rajendra, The Case for Unilateral Disarmament, 6-16,
http://www.indianembassy.org/policy/Disarmament/disarm8.htm]
We have seen disarmament conferences dragging on their weary course endlessly only to bog down in a morass of
equivocation and double talk... in terms of readiness to suffer, and of the intensity of sympathy and active or passive
support of the thousands of nonterrorists.
3. Disarm solves war – it eliminate the fear that motivates others to respond to our arsenal with their own
Fromm, renowned social psychologist, psychoanalyst, humanistic philosopher and democratic socialist, 1960
[Erich, Daedalus, no 4, jstor]
The most likely result of unilateral disarmament-whether it be undertaken... the Soviet Union or the United States
would most likely do away with this major cause and, thus, with the probability of war.
4. Disarm doesn’t cause nuclear war. The worst-case scenario is that an adversary can just walk in and take over but
without bloodshed.
Schell, 2000
[Jonathan, Fate of the Earth and the Abolition, p107]
Sometimes it is suggested that unilateral disarmament might itself lead to the use of nuclear weapons... Defeat could
be entirely “stable.”
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5. Accepting domination is a better fate than nuclear conflict

Irvine, University of British Columbia Philosophy Professor, 1999
[A.D., Bertrand Russell: Critical Assessments Vol 1, p 184-5]
The real reasons for Russell’s conversion say more for his motives than his judgment... In effect, to avoid the risk of
war Russell was willing to settle for peace at any price. [p184-5]
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Columbia Awsare/Dentler (Critical-Preemption) [Daryl]
<<aslso: see Redlands>>
I will have the first three words/last three words of each card once I get back home and have a real template to do so.
-Shree
UNLV RR Round 1 1AC
Chapter 1: PreCrime
The Obama Administration has expanded the doctrine of pre-emption to include nuclear strikes
Lantier ‘8 (Alex, Writer @ the World Socialist Web Site, 10/30, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/oct2008/gate-
o30.shtml shree)
Logics of pre-emption and deterrence breed perpetual apocalypse by actualizing potential threats
Massumi ‘7 (Brian, Prof of Comm at U of Montreal, “Potential Politics and the Primacy of Preemption”, Theory & Event
10:2shree, evidence under erasure)
This war on uncertainty prevents an affirmation of life and fuels genocide
Seem 83 (Prof @ U of Minn, Introduction of the 1983 printing of Anti-Oedipus; Anti-Oedipus p xvi-xviishree, evidence
under erasure)
The logic of pre-emption normalizes knowledge production about the unknown, requiring the elimination of all potential
threats and causing extinction
Hoffman ‘7 (Kasper, International Development Studies at Roskilde University, May, Militarized Bodies and Spirits of
Resistance, http://diggy.ruc.dk:8080/handle/1800/2766 shree, ev under erasure)
Thus, we refuse to endorse the pre-emptive use of the United States’ nuclear weapons by the United States Federal
Government.
Chapter 2: Minority Report
Vote affirmative to validate a minority report against pre-emptive violence. Pre-emption is bad if it’s wrong even once.
Weber ‘7 (Cynthia, Prof of IR at Lancaster, The Logics of Biopower and the War on Terror: Living, Dying, Surviving, p
124-6shree)
We are defined relationally to others, given over to them in ways we cannot irreducibly know. A politics centered on a
shared condition of precariousness challenges frames of war which make us normatively script our agency and
mourning
Butler ‘9 (Judith, Prof of Rhetoric @ Cal, Frames of War, p 26-36shree)
Pre-emptive state violence and static notions of subjectivity are two sides of the same coin. Avowing injurability without
considering our shared precariousness perpetuates an epistemology that necessitates violence.
Norms that produce subjects are iterable and thus fragile. This demands an ethical practice of responsiblity that
divorces itself from absolutism and seeks to protect the other from violence
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Using government practices as a focal point is not the same as a totalizing endorsement of instrumentality—our
demand testifies to the strategic reversibility of power relations
Campbell 98 (David, Prof of IR at Newcastle, Writing Security, p 204-5shree)
Disavowing the iterability of norms is a sovereign act that justifies unconditional violence
Rasch ‘4 (William, Prof of Germanic Studies – Indiana, Sovereignty and its Discontents p. 3-4shree)
How we envision the social construction of the body defines our relationship to the world
Pizzini 2K (Franca, Prof of Socio @ Milan, “The Medicalization of Women’s Body”, October,
http://www.women.it/quarta/workshops/epistemological4/pizzini.htm shree)
On the negative (in UNLV RR Round 2 and 4), we have read--
Agamben K
The affirmative divides Being between zoe and bios, producing both the normative subject of the law and a
concomitant zone of indistinction between the two poles where the Muselmann arises as the zero point of atrocity,
annihilating meaning and value.
Giorgio Agamben, Professor of Philosophy at University of Verona, Remnants of Auschwitz: The Witness and the
Archive, 1999, 155-157
Furthermore, their framing of impacts solipsistically avoids becoming because of a reactionary desire to preserve
structure- this fuels a genocidal fascism that makes death desirable.
Deleuze and Guattari 72 (Gilles, ex-Prof at U of Paris at Vincennes, Felix, ex-psychiatrist at La Borde Anti-Oedipus
330-9shree)
Fortunately, the creation of molar fascist structures is not inevitable but is rather the result of limiting desire to one
ontological strata- that of biological existence- which then becomes the ground for sovereign power and the
concomitant production of bare life. Vote negative in order to endorse Whatever-being in opposition to the affirmative’s
attempt to lodge existence within the biological strata.
Anne Caldwell, Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Louisville, 2004, Theory
& Event, 7.2
Baudrillard K
The 1ac prefigures the object of their discourse by reading a biopolitical code into nuclear weapons. The assumption
that nuclear signifiers still attach to a realm of known effects leaves the structures of nuclearism in place. Instead, we
should adopt an ironic strategy that radically decenters meaning.
Chaloupka, William. 1992. “Knowing Nukes : The Politics and Culture of the Atom.”
Minneapolis, MN, USA: University of Minnesota Press, xiii-xv.
All that power asks of us is that we take it seriously enough to oppose it. Rather than decrying the abuses of power, we
should let power work on us in mute silence, exposing it to its own lack of substance and reality.
Jean Baudrillard. Professor of Philosophy of Culture and Media Criticism at the European Graduate School, 1981,
Simulacra and Simulation, p. 24-25.
Shit is already vacuous and discourse doesn’t determine anything. You double-turn yourself by talking and prescribing
things. Conflict can only break through systems of control in the form of accidents, events beyond all agency and
responsibility which means you don’t solve.
Chaloupka, William. 1992. “Knowing Nukes : The Politics and Culture of the Atom.”Minneapolis, MN, USA: University
of Minnesota Press, 39-41.
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The affirmative posits themselves as subjects of knowledge and power, using the discourse of the 1AC to establish
critical distance and intervene in the nuclear scene, but this strategy is bound to fail because it is not the subject that
wills the world into existence but rather the object that seduces it. Any attempt to revive the strategy of the subject
simply breeds self-hatred and repression which reproduces their harms.
Baudrillard 90__ (Jean, Professor of Philosophy of Culture and Media Criticism at the European Graduate School,
Fatal Strategies, p. 111-13)
Disalienation and liberation through discourse is impossible because society exchanges signs in a generalized system
that includes the 1AC. Efforts at liberation only lead to deeper and deeper depths of unhappy consciousness because
the freed slave is never spared the master’s gift of life.
Lotringer ‘7 (Sylvere, French post-structuralist critical thinker. “Forget Foucault: A semiotexte of the present” pg. 9-17,
introduction.)
The Nuclear Bomb isn’t evil! The bomb has liberated us from the tyranny of the subject, discourse and representation.
Chaloupka, William. 1992. “Knowing Nukes : The Politics and Culture of the Atom.”
Minneapolis, MN, USA: University of Minnesota Press, 27-28.
Deterrence DA
Nuclear Weapons deter conflict

Murdock 08
From a systemic perspective...deterrence holds fast
Millions of people die as a result of conventional wars because there is no incentive to de-escalate conflict
Disarmament and International Security 99
Limitless and unrestricted...expense of these weapons
War is the ultimate creation and exercise of biopolitical control

Moretti '3
It is the suspension of...cohering into a form-of-life.
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CSU-Fullerton Bridge/Gray (Critical-Body) [Daryl]
Gonzaga Disclosure
We begin with a discussion the bodies that the nuclear weapons arsenal is built on, including the bodies of those left
dead and injured by the bombs dropped at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear testing, radiation tests, the nuclear fuel
cycle, and depleted uranium weapons.
The nuclear weapons regime creates these bodies in pain to make real its power and anchor its ideological belief
systems.
Gusterson, 98 (Hugh Gusterson, Professor of Anthropology and Sociology at George Mason University. Nuclear Rites:
A Weapons Laboratory at the End of the Cold War. 1998. pp. 108-109)
The marked bodies of all these …dominance in the international power structure (Luke 1989).
These bodies are only allowed to appear fragmented, decontextualized, and objectifed. The transformation of bodily
pain into precise, objective, scientific data erases the subjectivity, suffering and person that inhabit the body, enabling
the scientific task to continue unimpeded by awareness of the real pain it inflicts. This erasure is what enables the
physical destruction of these bodies.
Gusterson, 98 (Hugh Gusterson, Professor of Anthropology and Sociology at George Mason University. Nuclear Rites:
A Weapons Laboratory at the End of the Cold War. 1998. pp. 109-111)
The discourse of scientists and other experts …pain itself getting in the way (Hafferty 1991; Kenner 1987; Taussig
1980).
Denial of appearance leaves lives unmarked, able to be taken without recourse.

Butler, 04 (Judith Butler, professor of rhetoric and comparative literature at UC Berkeley. Precarious Life: the Powers
of Mourning and Violence. 2004. pp. xx-xi)
Public policy, including foreign policy…publicly about the effects of war.
Techno-scientific solipsism is organized around disappearance of the body. We become mortified of the flesh and seek
to empty the world of substance, resulting in hatred of living matter and extermination of entire peoples under the guise
of progress.
Virilio, 02. (Paul Virilio, Emeritus Professor at the Ecole Spéciale d'Architecture in Paris. Ground Zero. 2002. pp. 12-
13).
If, according to Francois Raspail…but the madness of the mightiest.
To counter the disappearance of the body enacted by the US nuclear project, an activist group called Baring Witness
has laid their bodies on the line.
Garofoli, 03 (Joe Garofoli. “A Cheeky Protest: Bay Area Anti-War Activists Go Nude in Surge of Creative Vigils.” the
San Francisco Chronicle. January 12, 2003. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0112-09.htm)
Even as U.S. troops inch … in San Francisco this Saturday.
We ask you to use your ballot to Bare Witness to the dismembered body. Confronting the body that we have
abandoned and repressed is a step necessary to challenge the role our nuclear weapons arsenal plays in
dismembering the body, distancing us from it so that it can be destroyed.
Public criticism is an embodied act of exile that reorients violent relations by subverting the exclusion of bodies from
the domain of public representation.
Kennedy, 99 (Kristen Kennedy, Visiting Assistant Professor of English at Wake Forest University. “Hipparchia the
Cynic: Feminist Rhetoric and the Ethics of Embodiment,” Hypatia 14.2 (1999) Muse.)
Hipparchia's use of exile as an ethical …has no need of something to conceal him.] (n.d., 135-37)
Applying the lessons we gain from the body of the suffering other to the process of ordering our daily lives overcomes
the socioengineering schemes that deny the body agency in their pursuit of transcendence through reason. Beginning
with embodiment opens up space for authentic politics by retrieving context and motivating praxis.
Rajan, 90 (Roby Rajan, School of Business at the University of Wisconsin, Parkside. Alternatives, Volume XV. 1990)
It ought to be stressed here that for Gandhi, …it is always and irretrievably situated.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Same as Gonzaga
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Dartmouth Manns/Sterman (Critical-Prolif Racism) [Courtney]
Current descriptions and responses to proliferation are based in Imperial Control Proliferation is destabilizing only
through a colonial lens
Andreas Behnke, Prof. of Poli Sci @ Towson, 2k [January, International Journal of Peace Studies 5.1, "Inscriptions of
the Imperial Order,"http://www.gmu.edu/academic/ijps/vol5_1/behnke.htm]
While sticking to our critical hermeneutics...it is unwilling to listen to.
Proliferation threats are not self evident but seeped in a Racist description of the world The current ideological
approach insures unending war and genocide
Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin Prof. of Scociology @ Vassar, '7 ["The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and
Genocide," in Handbook of the The Soiology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]
At the turn of the ...up with genocide, in Darfur.
And the construction of proliferation danger is the central element in current war, global inequality, and racial
dominance - It Prevents Non-Violent Approaches
Matthew Woods, PhD in IR @ Brown - Researcher @ Thomas Watson Institute of International Relations, '7 [Journal
of Language and Politics 6.1"Unnatural Acts: Nuclear Language, proliferation, and order," p. 116-7]
It is important to identify, ...possibilities and co-opting subordinates.
Colonial Discourse is a Decision Rule The role it plays in destroying the vast majority of the planet requires its
rejection, it is the deciding factor in contemporary war
Nermeen Shaikh, @ Asia Source '7, [Development 50, "Interrogating Charity and the Benevolence of Empire,"
palgrave-journals]
It would probably be incorrect to ...and the Mediterranean generally (Anidjar, 2003, 2007).
And we must reject all racism or risk worldwide destruction

Joseph Barndt 1991 Dismantling Racism: The Continuing Challenge to White America, p. 155-56
To study racism is to study ...dare not allow it to continue.
The Discourse of Proliferation danger utilizes racial ideology solidifying colonial domination and justifying use of
nuclear weapons.
Bryan C. Taylor, Prof. of Comm. @ Univ. of Colorado-Boulder, '7 [Presidential Studies Quarterly 37.4, "The Means to
Match Their Hatred": Nuclear Weapons, Rhetorical Democracy, and Presidential Discourse," p. wiley]
Critical concern with the first President ...resisting further arms control and reduction.
Representations of prolif naturalize these racist assumptions of Non-Western States as irrational. The supposed
inability to deter makes the use of nuclear weapons on "rogue" proliferators inevitable.
Hugh Gusterson, @ MIT Center for International Studies, '1 [Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 57.6, "Tall Tells and
Deceptive Discourses," p. http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/1773264770n77769/fulltext.pdf]
The new discourse, like its ...called the "second nuclear age."
The discourse of irrationality is used to justify nuclear strikes against rogues in the international order.
Michel Chossudovsky, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Center for Research on
Globalization, Feb 11 2008, "The US-NATO Preemptive Nuclear Doctrine: Trigger a Middle East Nuclear Holocaust to
Defend "The Western Way of Life"" Global Research
Threatening the use of nuclear weapons in counter proliferation enforces nuclear colonialism while slaughtering
civilians.
Michel Chossudovsky, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Center for Research on
Globalization, Feb 11 2008, "The Dangers of a Middle East Nuclear War New Pentagon Doctrine: Mini-Nukes are
"Safe for the Surrounding Civilian Population""" Global Research
As part of a stance against nuclear colonialism, we present the following plan,
Plan: The United States Federal Government should eliminate the use of nuclear weapons against proliferating states
and states that transfer nuclear technology from its counter-proliferation policy.
We reserve the right to clarify.
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The Aff's discussion reorients scholarship, changes the way we conceptualize the problem of proliferation
Rebecca S. Bjork, Prof of Communications @ University of Utah, '95 [inWarranting Assent, "Public Policy
Argumentation and Colonialist Ideology in the Post-Cold War Era," p. 232]
The assumption, all too ...be logically prior to suggesting alternatives.
Refusing racial practices and representations prepares an alternative knowledge base that is a pre-req to effective
policymaking
Diana Brydon, University of Western Ontario, '6 [Postcolonial Test 2.1, "Is There a Politics of Postcoloniality?"
http://journals.sfu.ca/pocol/index.php/pct/article/viewArticle/508/175]
For Hasseler and Krebs, then...under which genuine dialogue might begin.
Imperial representations are not natural or inevitable Arguments about inevitability are used to justify the colonial
status quo.
Hugh Gusterson, @ MIT Center for International Studies, '9 [Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Narrating abolition,
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/h26825722134k888/fulltext.pdf]
Arms control experts speak in terms ...half nuclear and half nuclear free."
Discourse should be privileged in our analysis-Racist Representations ensure racial elimination and are ideologically
constructed to justify the status quo
Roxanne Doty, Prof. of Political Science @ ASU [Woot], '96 [Imperial Encounters: The Politics of Reprsentations in
North-South Relations, p. 166-71]
One of the deadly traces ...responsibility and complicity in dominant representations.
May change a little bit, will report
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Emporia Fifelski/Loghry (Critical-Democracy) [DCH]
Kentucky Cards
This card replaced Croyle:

The recent UN resolution was a façade to extend the secrecy of nuclear expansion abroad and to whitewash the
development of its own nuclear program
Mazari in 2009 (Shireen M; The facade of nuclear disarmament; September 26, 2009; http://www.nation.com.pk/
pakistan-news-newspaper-daily- english-online/Politics/26- Sep-2009/The-facade-of- nuclear-disarmament/1; kdf)
The UN Security … nuclear arsenals.
And this card was added:
The nuclear veil of secrecy makes standard decision making epistemologically unsound – the manufacturing of
intelligence to build support for the Iraq war proves that the plans reactivation of the public sphere is a prerequisite to
making any accurate political assessments
Masco in 2007 [Joseph [Dept. of Anthropology @ U Chicago], “The Nuclear Public Sphere,” Ethnografeast III:
Ethnography and the Public Sphere, http://ceas.iscte.pt/ ethnografeast/papers/joseph_ masco.pdf, kdf]
Finally, the secret …basis for action.
Aff v.Northwestern FS
Gonzaga, Round 3 :
vs:
Plan texts:
The United States federal government should abolish its nuclear weapons arsenal.
The United States should abolish its nuclear arsenal.
The United States federal government should abolish its nuclear arsenal.
1ac cites:
Politicians love to talk about a world free of nuclear weapons – sadly, this is usually political posturing, as it is with
Obama – Politics in this way results in the United States inevitably maintain nuclear weapons
Coyle 2008 (Phillip, Election Special—Nonproliferation Views, Part 1, September 12, Written by Holly Lindamood,
Program Director and Research Associate, Daisy Alliance
http://blog.daisyalliance.org/2008/09/12/election-special%E2%80%94nonproliferation-views-part-1/; sm)
Senator Obama … weapons states.
This gap between rhetoric and reality is steeped in nuclear reclusion – nuclear war is unthinkably horrifying so our
common response is to just to ignore it – this also means that debates about nuclear weapons become depoliticized—
leaving us paralyzed by fear
Fishel in 2008 (Stefanie [Dept of Political Science @ John Hopkins], "Nuclear Collective Memories, Hidden Histories,
and Remembering the Future", Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION,
BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA Online, kdf)
Historically, nuclear … the atom.
The culture of deterrence has naturalized all forms of conflict through the framework of depoliticization—we have
become culturalized to feel safe in a world full of chaos—this is because are truly afraid to question the horrors of
nuclear weapons and to recognize out complicity in the erosion of the political—ultimately resulting in the paralysis of a
culture of violence
Brown in 2006 (Wendy [ Prof of political science @ UC Berkeley]; Regulating Aversion: tolerance in the Age of Identity
and Empire; p. 15-16, kdf)
Part of …to culture.
Thus, the plan: The United States federal government should abolish its nuclear weapons arsenal.
We must demand the impossible when it comes to nuclear weapons—each time we pass up the opportunity we fail to
question the underlying political order—while it might be difficult to achieve our goal we must stay resilient—otherwise
we continue to legitimate proliferation, constantly risk cosmic catastrophe, reverse trends of denuclearization, spark an
arms race, and allow for the depoliticization of our culture
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Booth and Wheeler in 92 (Ken [Personal Chair in the Department of International Politics @ University of Wales] and
Nicholas J. [UN Security Council]; Security Without Nuclear Weapons; ed: Regina Cowen Karp; p. 51-5; kdf)
There is …appear achievable.
Disarm movements continue to think complete disarmament can be easily achieved—and realist strategies have
ceded to the inevitability of nuclear weapons—we reject both of these paths as failed forms of utopianism—instead we
adopt a method that says because of the current political process complete disarmament will be difficult but because of
the unethical nature of nuclear weapons we should tie ourselves to zero rather than seeing them as inevitable
Karp in 92 (Regina Cowen [Senior Researcher and leader of the SIPRI Security Without Nuclear Weapons? Project;
frmr Resident Fellow @ the Institute for East-West Security Studies]; Security Without Nuclear Weapons?; p. 1-3; kdf)
More …over policy.
We are a unique form of a utopian demand—all of their criticisms will assume a fictional utopia where the goal seems
easily obtained—instead we are a form of process of utopianism where we project the goal at zero and then engage
the political process maintaining that goal—this ordering of events is important because it reverses the trends of the
current political order
Karp in 92 (Regina Cowen [Senior Researcher and leader of the SIPRI Security Without Nuclear Weapons? Project;
frmr Resident Fellow @ the Institute for East-West Security Studies]; Security Without Nuclear Weapons?; p. 1-3; kdf)
In chapter … be legitimized.
The current political reality considers what “is” resulting in the reclusion of nuclear weapons—the affirmative focuses
on what the world “should” be in order to transcend the current order
Kampleman in 2006 (Max M. [headed the nU.S. delegation to the negotiations on nuclear and space arms in Geneva
from 1985 to 1989], We Should, so we Can: Life Without the Bomb, http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0424-
21.htm, kdf)
In my … the will.
The aff is a strategic demand because it creates a rupture within institutional politics by enacting a utopian imagination
of abolition—anything less continues the paralysis of depoliticization which is committed to powerless and meaningless
reform
Jameson Professor of Comparative Literature at Duke 2004 Fredric New Left Review 25 p 43-46
How should … conventional slogans.
Through our utopian demand we examine the problems within calls for abolition—at the same time only this demand
can create a break with the securization inherent in deterrence
Booth and Wheeler in 92 (Ken [Personal Chair in the Department of International Politics @ University of Wales] and
Nicholas J. [UN Security Council]; Security Without Nuclear Weapons; ed: Regina Cowen Karp; p. 21-4; kdf)
The problem of … in the thinking'.11
Voting affirmative resonates into something beyond just the act of voting—it creates the space for universal politics by
exposing the violence of the current system and wills a new one into existence
Dean in 2005 (Jodi [Associate Prof of Political Theory @ Hobart & William Smith]; Zizek Against Democracy;
jdeanicite.typepad.com/.../zizek_against_democracy_new_version.doc, kdf)
I’ve argued thus … absent this ‘beyond’).
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Emporia Williams-Green/Wash (Critical) [Phil]
whoa
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Florida State Fixell/Silver [Critical-Capitalism) [Mark]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Imaginary world of debate is in crisis of sublimation. Attempts to encounter the real of politics give fals value to a form
of debate which substitutes “real action” with role playing. Key to any acto f solvency is realizing the valuelessness of
debate and the extent to which it subverts our passions and abilities to break free of capitalism
Zupancic 03 The shortest shadow: nietzsche’s philosophy of the two.
Capitalism uses debaters to reify hegemony

Spanos 93 The end of education: toward posthumanism
State power uses debate and education t teach us to play with politics as fantasy and to always have to operate within
its given framework
Sarup 84 Marxism/structuralism/education: theoretical developments the sociology of education p1-2
Capitalisms disciplinary gaze ensures violence

Spanos 93
Capitalism causes technorational thought

Spanos 93
Zero point
Dillon 99
Myth of western progress is root of destruction

Spanos 93
No value to life
Debord 77 society of the spectacle
Individual rejection solves

Roszak 92 The voice of the earth p315-17
Nihilism inevitable
Zupancic 03
Active nihilism key

Zupancic 03
Critical to our embracing o factive nihilism is knowing which enemy to fight

Hardt and negri, empire,
Role o fballot is to use the ballot as means of production against capitalism

Stone www.by.edu/wcp/Papers/Soci/SociSton.htm
“capitalism is both an” AND “provides no proof”
Discursive activities such as debate are crucial to expose hidden assumptions

Pacheco 78 Philosophy of education p219
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George Mason Owens/Reynolds (Critical) [Courtney]
OBS 1 THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Humanity’s development through time has created an unstable environment that throws us into a longing for Eden.
The role of nuclear weapons is to achieve our dream of timelessness by becoming our Alpha and the Omega. They
are the deity which steers our destiny as it wishes, toward an inevitable Apocalypse that will occur at the will of the
Bomb. We are helpless to its symbolism that tells us the end is already here.
Chernus 1986 (cochair of the religion peace and war group of the american academy of religion) Dr. Strangegod p25-8
Although there are other signs of society’s quest for ritualistic doom, the Nuclear Armageddon is the most concrete
embodiment of humanity’s fatalistic self-extinction. This creates, AND reinforces worship of and acquiescence to the
Bomb in both religious and secular society. The public sphere’s emphasis on the Bomb as a necessary tool of strategy
has only made things worse.
Wojcik 1997 (Associate Prof of English and Folklore at the U of Oregon, PhD from U of California LA) The End of the
World as we know it p99-103
Current political dialogue only reinforces the current role of nuclear weapons. Even the quest to reduce emphasis still
reveres their awesome and God-like power. The government relies on the logic that the Bomb is the solution to its own
problem, that deterrence will somehow eliminate our dependence.
President Barack Obama 2009 Obama Prague Speech On Nuclear Weapons: FULL TEXT
Huffington Post 9/17/2009 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/05/obama-prague-speech-on-nu_n_183219.html?
view=print
The Bomb will never be relinquished as the ultimate solution to our international troubles because it symbolizes our
goals as a nation. Its existence as the definitive power and freedom mandates an enemy after the same goals,
bringing us to neverending war. Even if the plan fails, we are in no more danger than the SQ. Avoiding the link to the
disad is only a band-aid solution to a deeper problem. Plan is our ONLY hope.
Our aspiration to meet God and know limitless Truth leads us to death as we attempt to break the barriers between
reality and the cosmos. The search for death lives in all of us and is inescapably ground into the foundations of our
national and local politics. It does not matter whether or not the Bomb CAN bring the Apocalypse because the
Apocalypse is already upon us so long as we adhere to the religion of the Bomb.
In addition to the psychological state of extinction, a literal form of suicide is inevitable in order to release our
frustrations and take back final control over our numbed existence.
Chernus 1986 (cochair of the religion peace and war group of the american academy of religion) Dr. Strangegod p124-
7
Plan: The United States Federal Government should eliminate the role of its nuclear weapons arsenal.
OBS 2 TAKING BACK OUR LIVES

We advocate deemphasizing nuclear weapons not because we are in awe of what they are or what they do, but
because of what they have become in the mind of society. Eliminating the role of the US nuclear arsenal clears the air
so we can take back our lives. We will no longer be pawns of a nuclear God, but a society with a future and the ability
to feel again. We cannot afford to make compromises. Any concession to the Bomb is 100% concession. The purpose
of fiat is to create a political container for our plan where we can immediately envision the effects. This will guide
further policies.
Chernus 1991 (same quals) Nuclear Madness p287-90
Humanity gets its feeling of agency from vicariously living through the Bomb because the USFG’s “experts” show us
that’s how it should be. Only a top-down approach solves.
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It’s tempting to vote for the comfortable short-term impact calc arguments, but trusting the traditional realist modes of
politics without question is a religious ritual of re-establishing our current logic. Each time around the cycle makes our
situation more dangerous.
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George Mason James/Leinbach (Critical) [Daryl]
Throughout the course of history, mankind has been compelled by the desire to create and destroy. We are slaves to
the technological imperative- the demand to justify the use of our newest creations even if it culminates in our
destruction. In the context on nuclear weapons- this makes total annihilation inevitable.
Kultgen 99
Kultgen, John H. “In the valley of the shadow: reflections on the morality of nuclear deterrence” 1999 pages 334-335
Additionally, the massive amounts of funding that have been poured into nuclear weapons demand their use. Intense
pressure on leaders in times of crisis, empirical strategies of violence and lack of restraint, and the nature of probability
make use of nuclear weapons inevitable as long as they exist. Unavoidable escalation of violence, by political leaders,
officers in the field facing dehumanizing conditions, or in the nuclear wars sure to follow, dash any hope for a just or
survivable war.
Kultgen 99
Kultgen, John H. “In the valley of the shadow: reflections on the morality of nuclear deterrence” 1999 224-228
By their very nature, use of nuclear weapons is unjustifiable. Their indiscriminate and disproportional character makes
a just war impossible, and their devastating effects make any war unsurvivable. Even if they are never used, the
conditional intent to use them, euphemized as ‘deterrence’, ensures our complicity in immorality.
Kultgen 99
Kultgen, John H. “In the valley of the shadow: reflections on the morality of nuclear deterrence” 1999, pages 257-258
Conditional intentions increase the probability of the use of nuclear weapons, and are inherently immoral by their
commitment to an immoral act. ‘Escalation control’ assumes the enemy can, or will, limit their violent reactions. In
reality, a disproportionate response would be the most likely retaliation by an enemy.
Kultgen 99
Additionally, conditional intentions to use nuclear weapons are a result of a predisposition towards violence which has
characterized international affairs. This increases the probability of using nuclear weapons in crisis situations, while
simultaneously creating the incentive for enemies to preempt. This cycle of violence and Realpolitik is unending and
increasingly escalatory.
Kultgen 99
Claims that deterrence works are grounded in a dangerously simplistic illusion about the causal chain in foreign affairs.
It is impossible to prove that deterrence works- the causal chain is far too complex. It is more likely deterrence has
raised the probabilities of nuclear war from 1 in 100 to 1 in 10- even if it hasn’t happened yet.
Kultgen 99
Thus,
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Plan Text: The United States federal government should disarm its nuclear weapons arsenal.
Deterrence is a form of using innocents as hostages in the international arena: stripping citizens of their autonomy.
Kultgen 99
Kultgen, John H. “In the valley of the shadow: reflections on the morality of nuclear deterrence” 1999, page 293
To be stripped of autonomy condemns us to insanity or utter dehumanization. This is the biggest impact in the round-
all of their impacts assume a life worth living, they are all written in the context of human beings experiencing these
impacts- not shells of people.
Rousseau 1762
Big Deal Philosopher. The Social Contract. www.constitution.org/jjr/socon_01.htm#006
We understand ourselves in relation to others- knowingly taking the first step in a nuclear war via nuclear deterrence is
an immoral act which has paramount meaning to our lives. All U.S citizens are morally complicit. Disarmament is the
first step in ending international relations based in violence and fulfilling its moral obligation
Kultgen 99
It doesn’t matter if we cant see the ultimate goal of disarmament- we must move in the right direction.
Nunn 09
Former Senator Sam Nunn, Co-Chairman, Nuclear Threat Initiative, American Nuclear Society Annual Meeting, June
15, 2009.
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George Washington Olmsted-Rumsey/Helgeson (Critical)

[Stiffy]
Plan text:
PLAN: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ISSUE AND SIGN A PRESIDENTIAL POLICY
DIRECTIVE THAT DICTATES THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS WILL NOT BE USED ON EITHER COUNTER-FORCE
OR COUNTER-VALUE TARGETS INCLUDING TERROR CENTERS.
1ac cites:
OBSERVATION ONE IS STASIS.
THE US MAINTAINS A POLICY OF AGGRESSIVE NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AGAINST THE THREAT OF

NUCLEAR TERRORISM.
Nuclear Threat Initiative, “PREFACE: THE NEW THREAT FROM NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL
WEAPONS.” 2007 by MIIS. http://nuclearthreatinitiative.org/db/china/engdocs/dodproli/preface.htm
Our progress is good news…DoD support for various nonpproliferation agreements.
OBSERVATION TWO IS THE SIMULATION
THE WAR GAMES OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE ABSTRACT THE TECHNOLOGY OF WAR INTO A SIMULATION,
SOMETHING UNREAL.
JAMES Der Derian. “The Simulation Syndrome: From War Games to game Wars” Social Text No. 24 1990 Duke
University Press. Muse. Accessed 10/5.
We all have some notion of the reality of war… (a point brought home by the botched bombing of the Panamanian
military barracks by a stealth FB-117)
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY DISSOCIATES VIOLENCE FROM THE INDIVIDUAL, DIVERTING BLAME.

CONTEMPORARY REALISM IS A SELF-REINFORCING THEOREM THAT SIMULATES CONTROL OVER EVENTS
WE HAVE NO CONTROL OVER.
Elshtain “Reflections on War and Political Discourse: Realism, Just War and Feminism in a Nuclear Age” POLITICAL
THEORY Vol. 13 No. 1 p. 37-57. Sage Publications inc. / FEBRUARY 1985 Muse 10/7
Hannah Arendt's attempt to rescue politics from war deepens …indiscriminately usable for our strategic planning.
DETERRENCE MASKS THE DESTRUCTIVE NATURE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS BY OBSCURING THE REALITY
OF NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE.
Kristenson, Norris, and Olerich, April 2k9. Hans M. Kristenson is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the
Federation of American Scientists. Robert S. Norris is a senior research associate with the Natural Resources Defense
Council nuclear program and director of the Nuclear Weapons Databook project. Ivan Oelrich is vice president for
Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists. “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A
New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons,” report from Federation of American Scientists
and the Natural Resources Defense Council.
In part, the overuse and misuse …deterrence no matter what mission they have.
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THE IMBALANCES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM HAVE CREATED A WORLD OF PERPETUAL WAR. THE
YOUNG “TERRORISTS” IN THE WORLD RESORT TO VIOLENCE BECAUSE IT IS THE ONLY OPTION IN THE UN-
ENDING WAR AGAINST THE WEST.
Keith P. Feldman, Professor at University of Washington, The New Centenniel Review, “Seattle Imperial Formation
and “Permanent State of War”” Volume 8, Number 2, Fall 2008 Project Muse.
Let us first consider the analytical purchase …of historical narrative as a tool of the state and as a subversive weapon
against it” (Stoler 1995, 62).
OBSERVATION THREE IS IDENTITY
OUR NUCLEAR ARSENAL ENFRAMES HUMANS AS MEANS TO ENDS AND AGENTS OF DESTRUCTION
EXISTING IN A PERPETUAL STATIS. OUR FOREIGN POLICY OBJECTIVES ARE NEVER ACHIEVABLE.
Anthony Burke, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at UNSW, Sydney “Ontologies of War: Violence,
Existence and Reason” 10:2 | © 2007 Theory and Event. Johns Hopkins University Press. Project Muse 9/30/2008.
This essay describes firstly the ontology … commitments but their own substance'. 21
THIS PERPETUAL STATE OF WAR CREATES A CONSTANT ENEMY: WE ONLY KNOW THE TERRORIST OTHER
THROUGH OUR RHETORIC OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE.
Modern thinkers of the abstracted unthinkable … good citizens for doing so.
“TERROR” AS AN INTENTIOANLLY OBSCURE TERM FEEDS THE FICTION OF US FOREIGN POLICY THAT
BECOMES REALITY.
Peg Birmingham, Professor at DePaul University and the author of Hannah Arendt and Human Rights The Good
Society Volume 16, Number 2, 2007 “A Lying World Order: Deception and the Rhetoric of Terror” Project Muse.
In these early pages of Origins of Totalitarianism, …One can say that to some extent fascism has added a new
variation to the old art of lying—the most devilish variation—that of lying the truth".6
IN THIS STATE OF PERPETUAL WAR, INDIVIDUAL IDENTITY IS IMPOSSIBLE, FREEDOM IS CRUSHED UNDER
THE WAR MACHINE THAT OBSCURES BEING.
Hegel indeed argues that 'sacrifice … form of the national security state.
THIS STATE-CENTERED IDEOLOGY SHAPES OUR THINKING TO CONDONE DEHUMINAZATION AND

VIOLENCE AND A MASS-SCALE.
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Identity, even more than physical security ... rationalistic conceptions of war into a theoretical unity.44
OBSERVATION FOUR IS OUR ONLY OPTION
DETERRENCE IS BASED ON THE LOGIC OF COST-BENEFIT CALCULATION, CONDEMINING STATES TO THE

LOGIC OF SELF-PRESERVATION.
Maximum Deterrence
Gauthier, David. “Deterrence, Maximization and Rationality” Ethics, Vol. 94. 1984 University of Chicago Press. Muse
Accessed 10/5
Retaliation would therefore seem to … this argument succeeds and the former argument fails.
US FOREIGN POLICY HAS TWO HISTORICAL OBJECTIVES: TO ENTRENCH US HEGEMONY AND MAINTAIN
EQUILIBRIUM. THIS PERSPECTIVE ROOTS POLICY FIRMLY IN THE STATUS QUO. NO SOLVENCY IS
POSSIBLE INSIDE THIS FRAMEWORK.
At the same time, Kissinger's hubris and hunger … divisive war to remove Saddam Hussein from power.
THIS WAY OF THINKING OBSCURES OUR CONCEPTIONS OF RIGHT AND WRONG AND REMOVES THE US
FROM ALL CULPABILITY.
Hannah Arendt's On Violence responds … a temporary manifestation of a still-hidden good."
EVEN IN NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY THE US ADOPTS A ZERO-SUM STANCE THAT MAKES VIOLENCE
INEVITABLE.
In his Politics Among Nations Hans Morgenthau … for conventional weapons is a rational instrument of international
politics'.28
THE US DEFINES THE WAR ON TERROR IN NEGATIVE TERMS, MAKING WAR A NECESSITY.
Rosalind C. Morris Copyright © 2002 Duke University Press. All rights reserved. Social Text 20.3 (2002) 149-175
Access provided by George Washington University Theses on the Questions of War: History, Media, Terror
The Bush administration's repeated …globality that is deeply, perhaps irreducibly, American.
THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM HAS GIVEN TERROR A RECIPROCAL ABILITY TO
DESTABILIZE AMERICAN POWER, MAKING AN END TO TERROR IMPOSSIBLE.
Leonard Wilcox Head of the Department of American Studies at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New
Zealand2003 Baudrillard, September 11, and the Haunting Abyss of Reversal PMC 14.1. Muse 10/6
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Another aspect of the system's propensity to … targeted; we had our own scenes of anthrax terror--we were "real."
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Georgeton Hantel/Shen (Critical-Hiroshima) [Katie]
<<get cards from Phil>>
GSU Aff Disclosure

The resolution’s invocation of America’s nuclear arsenal and posture is like every debater’s dream, drawing a quick
straight line to extinction scenarios. For once, this tendency is not unique to debaters, because nuclear weapons in our
collective imagination have become significant only as agents of Armageddon, some future scenario of fantastic
apocalypse looming overhead. Whether on the left or the right, hawk or dove, this focus on the coming Armageddon is
actually a fantasy precluding an earnest investigation into the meaning of our nuclear age. In particular, it displaces the
single and most important historical resource we have to draw upon, the US atomic bombing of Japan in World War II.
The fun of apocalyptic imagery has become a toxic fiction, written to disarm critical thought and to avoid the work of
memory and remembrance demanded by Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Foard 97 (JH, JAAR, Prof of Religion at ASU, "Imagining Nuclear Weapons," JSTOR)
This ambivalence about… self evident fact.
The erasure of Hiroshima or Nagasaki as events to be mourned and engaged with is embodied by the right wing
approach to history. The possibility of open-ended memory-work threatens a transcendental, fixed, and redemptive
reading of history which affirms the eternal rightness of American nationalism.
Nash et al. 97 (Gary, Ross Dunn, Charlotte Crabtree, History on Trial: Culture Wars and the Teachings of the Past,
125-127)
Despite such a… just being born.
This detached relationship from Hiroshima is in reality an ideological prison binding us to a quest for total omnipotence
and the future use of nuclear weapons.
Lifton and Mitchell 1996 (Psychologist at Harvard Medical School, Editor of E and P and author of 9 books, Hiroshima
in America, 302)
Since Hiroshima, we… Lewis Mumford observed.
The liberal-humanist appropriation of Hiroshima is no better - it represents the same transcendental project, ultimately
complicit with virulent forms of racism and nationalism. Instead of a glorified American referent, ‘us’ becomes the
human community who look endlessly upon the victims of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as the abject reminders of our own
rightness and humanity. They are frozen in time, and all of history along with them, in a narrative of linear progress
through a single political project.
Haver 1994 (William, positions, 2.1, “A World of Corpses”)
What is in… as it were.
Hiroshima always has and always will resist these moralizing and prohibitive containers that attempt to establish and
fix the meaning of the atomic bombings within the totality of linear history. We are not simply a cry to “Remember
Hiroshima”, demanding the constant repetition, in documentary form, of the statistics of the violence that transpired.
This quest for a positivist recollection is an attempt to soothe the crisis of representation caused by Hiroshima, but it is
this very failure of representation that provides the critical starting point for a new politics of memory.
Lambert 2 [Non-Philosophy of Gilles Deleuze, p. 95-96]
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In order to… zone in time
And so, our 1AC asks how to go about constructing new public spaces of memory. First and foremost, we must
escape the confines of monumental history--the fixed and rigid relationship to the past—such as the right wing censure
of Hiroshima or the liberal-humanist appropriation. The solution is not, however, a simple oppositional anti-
monumentalism which elides the past altogether and makes critical examination impossible.
Luciano 2004 (Dana, Georgetown English Professor and Max’s Thesis advisor, Arizona Quarterly, Autumn, proquest)
The antebellum inclination… melancholically denies it.
Our solution is the very disavowal of capital H history and the static representational practices that entails., not a top-
down centralized political project The radical potential of our intervention into the memory of Hiroshima is precisely this
open-ended lack of guarantees that makes the public space of rememberance contested and always-becoming. This
is the only way to effectively challenge the forms of oppression that take root when the meaning of History is
tyrannically fixed.
Haver 1994 (“A World of Corpses,” Positions)
What I have… demand the impossible.
We open the space of historical grieving. This interrupts the representational practices that fuel endless war and
destroy the possibility of our humanity.
Butler 2009 (Judith, Prof of Rhetoric at Berkeley, Frames of War, 182-184)
Non-violence thus… time and again.
This counter-monumental approach refuses the easy resolution of right-wing redemption or liberal sentimentality in the
name of critical and polyvocal relationships to history that radically reshape our present and open the way for new and
alternative futures.
Luciano 2004 (Dana, Georgetown English Professor and Max’s Thesis advisor, Arizona Quarterly, Autumn, proquest)
The counter-monument… in monumental history.
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Gonzaga Corrigan/Joseph (Critical-Patriarchy) [Phil[
1AC ROUND 2 -- HARVARD

CONTENTION ONE – THE NUCLEAR FAMILY; OR HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE MY STEP-
FATHER.
UNDER THE GUISE OF PARENTAL OBLIGATION, AMERICAN NUCLEAR POLICY HAS TAKEN A PARTICULARLY
INCESTUOUS TURN. DECADES OF URANIUM MINING AND RADIATION TESTING HAVE VIOLATED MILLIONS
WHO PLACE THEIR TRUST IN THE NUCLEAR FATHER FOR PROTECTION. JUST LIKE EXPERIENCES
DESCRIBED BY VICTIMS OF INCEST, DEVOTION TO THE BOMB AND ITS POLICIES FORCE THE SELF TO
SPLIT FROM THE BODY, WARPING AND PERVERTING IDEAS LIKE SURVIVAL, TRUST AND FAMILY TO MAKE
DAILY VIOLENCE AND PENETRATION NOT ONLY PSYCHOLOGICALLY PALATABLE BUT THE EXPECTED
NORM.
CAPUTI, 1994
Jane. Unthinkable Fathering: Connecting Incest and Nuclearism, Hypatia, Vol. 9, 1994. 21 pgs
THE NUCLEAR FATHER: WARHEAD OF THE FAMILY
An uncanny image appears on the cover of a 1985 children's comic book The Outsiders. A band of tiny costumed
heroes, ready for battle, approaches an enormous mushroom cloud, upon which is inscribed a face that is broadly
reminiscent of a 1950s sitcom dad. A pipe juts from his mouth and his expression is a lordly know-it-all and sadistic
smirk. Here is a prime portrait of the cultural figure whom I call the "nuclear father" -- the quintessential patriarch, the
man who nominally provides for and protects his dependents but who actually threatens and violates them. This
"nuclear father" figure can be found ruling over a family, a laboratory, a corporation, a military force, a church, or a
nation.
In his astute study Fathering the Unthinkable ( 1983) Brian Easlea, a physicist and historian, points to a predominance
of metaphors of male birth and fatherhood in the language of the Manhattan Project, the U.S. government's mission to
develop the atom bomb. He and Carol Cohn ( 1987) perceive these metaphors as indicators of the masculinist bias
steering the development of nuclear weapons. For example, at Los Alamos in 1945, as scientists struggled to produce
the bomb before the war ended, they took bets on whether they would produce a dud or a success-in their lingo, a
"girl" or a "boy." Their project was a success, and the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was nicknamed "Little Boy." The
National Baby Association reacted to this birth/explosion by naming J. Robert Oppenheimer "Father of the Year."
Oppenheimer remains the paradigmatic father figure in a select nuclear club that includes such men as Edward Teller,
"father of the U.S. H-bomb"; Glenn Seaborg, one of the "five fathers of plutonium"; Andrei Sakharov, "father of the
Soviet H-bomb"; and Admiral Hyman B. Rickover, "father of America's nuclear navy."
Oppenheimer, Teller, and other such scientific nuclear fathers were widely heroized after World War II. Astutely, their
colleague Leo Szitard observed, "It is remarkable that all these scientists . . . should be listened to, but mass
murderers have always commanded the attention of the public, and atomic scientists are no exception to this rule"
(cited in Boyer 1985 , 61). This linkage of fatherhood and mass murder is eerily reflected in the contemporary nuclear
family, where murderous mayhem is an increasingly common event.
Another kind of nuclear father was exemplified by forty-one-year-old Ernie Lasiter of Roswell, New Mexico, who in
January 1992 strangled his wife and four of his children and then shot himself. A couple of days earlier, his seventeen-
year-old daughter had been removed from the home by police, who were investigating her complaint of incestuous
assault by Lasiter. In the aftermath of the atrocity, a number of friends confirmed, as is typical in such cases, that
Lasiter was a "good guy" and fine family man. A secretary in the highway department where he worked added, "He
was very conscientious and a hard worker. He was almost like a machine" ( Jadrnak 1992, 3E). The machine that a
family (war)head like Ernie Lasiter most resembles is the unendingly lethal nuclear weapon. Not only does the
apocalyptically raging nuclear father have an immediate mass kill from his "blast," but the effects of his lethality linger
forever in the bodies and psyches of his survivors. Eerily, the mass murder/suicide pattern of the nuclear father
presages the probable fate of any nation that initiates nuclear war.
Nuclear-family men such as Lasiter seem omnipresent these days. Other recent family mass murderers include John
List, Jeffrey MacDonald, Ramon Salcido, George Franklin, Gene Simmons, and even the god-identified,
apocalyptically aimed, and allegedly sexually abusive father figure of the Branch Davidian Christian cult, David Koresh.
This lethally abusive nuclear father is also represented by fictional "pop" figures such as Leland Palmer in "Twin
Peaks" (1989-1990), Jerry Blake in The Stepfather ( 1988), "De-Fens" in the despicably racist Falling Down ( 1993),
and Freddy Kruger in A Nightmare on Elm Street ( 1984).
Moreover, in all sorts of stories with explicit themes of nuclear weaponry and power -- from comic books to popular
films to elite literature -- abusive fathers appear as prime metaphors for the Bomb. Examples include the novels The
Nuclear Age by Tim O'Brien ( 1985), Falling Angels by Barbara Gowdy ( 1990), The Mosquito Coast by Paul Theroux (
1982), The Prince of Tides by Pat Conroy ( 1986), the films Star Wars ( 1977), Forbidden Planet ( 1956), and Desert
Bloom ( 1986), and even, humorously, the current hit television show "The Simpsons."
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Of course, in his original mythic manifestations, primarily in television sitcoms, the fictionalized head of the nuclear
family is the benevolent patriarch who always "knows best." During the 1950s, the heyday of atomic culture,
fatherhood became a much valorized role, and Father's Day became for the first time a holiday of national significance
( May 1988 , 146). In The Feminine Mystique ( 1963) Betty Friedan connected the cult of the (white, middle-class)
nuclear family with a national psyche scarred by "the loneliness of the war and the unspeakableness of the bomb."
These conditions, she argued, made women particularly vulnerable to "the feminine mystique," the belief that the
highest value for women was fulfillment in a femininity characterized by "sexual passivity, male domination, and
nurturing maternal love" (37). At the same time, women and men also were vulnerable to a "masculine mystique," the
illusion that a man's rightful position was head of the family, where he was all-powerful, protective, a provider,
benevolent, omniscient, essentially godlike -- attributes simultaneously ascribed to America's newest weapon.
In truth, the bomb, while purportedly protecting actually threatens. So too does the nuclear father. Just as those
seeking refuge in a fallout shelter from an atomic bomb attack might instead find themselves roasted alive, those
seeking security in the nuclear family might instead find themselves under attack in the form of battery, rape, incest,
and mass murder. Affirming the connection of the political to the personal, and in subliminal recognition of the often
apocalyptic experience of American family life, the phrase "nuclear family" established itself firmly in the national
vernacular by 1947.
The film Atomic Cafe ( Rafferty, Loader, Rafferty 1982) is a witty compilation of clips from 1950s government and
military disinformation. These clips demonstrate the efficacy of that inflated Great White Father image to such
nuclearist propaganda. Over and over, they present heavily iconic white family images: dads coming home from work;
moms in the kitchen, cooking and serving; and Dick and Jane-type kids in the living room, watching TV.
Simultaneously, we see white governmental father figures blithely assuring us of the safety of radiation and indeed of
nuclear war itself. This genuflection to paternal authority was equally apparent in mainstream popular culture.
Television boasted popular shows with such masterfully subtle titles as "Father Knows Best" and "Make Room for
Daddy." So dominant was the image of the white, middle-class, patriarchally ordered family that one critic claimed,
"Dad's authority around the house appeared to be the whole point of the spectacle" ( Miller 1986 , 196). Of course, that
televised paternal authority also served to legitimate and ordain "Dad's" authority around the globe.
Benevolent nuclear father imagery was resurrected with great vigor during the Reagan-Bush era when the federal
government spent four billion dollars per year on the Strategic Defense Initiative or "Star Wars" -- Reagan's proposed
space-based nuclear "defense" system. In order to persuade Americans to place their trust in him and his utterly
specious project, Reagan smoothly donned the mask of the father protector, promising that his plan would offer a "new
hope for our children in the twenty-first century." (1983, 20)
Reagan's "good father" image continued in a 1985 television commercial produced by High Frontier, a pro-Star Wars
lobbying group. The spot opened with a childlike drawing of a simple house: stick figures represented a family, and
there was a gloomy-faced sun. A syrupy little girl voice chirped, "I asked my daddy what this Star Wars stuff is all
about. He said that right now we can't protect ourselves from nuclear weapons, and that's why the president wants to
build a Peace Shield." At this point, large red missiles appeared to threaten the house, but they harmlessly disintegrate
when met by a blue arc in the sky. Like magic, the grumpy sun began to smile and the arc was transformed into a
shimmering rainbow. This scenario was about as believable as Reagan's hair color. Yet, credibility was not really the
point. The essential message of this little package was that we, the much vaunted "American people," are children, in
need of the loving protection of the all-powerful father/president. See, he can even make the sun smile.
Reagan again assumed the mask of the benevolent nuclear father in his 1984 address to the peoples of Micronesia
acknowledging the cessation of their "trust" relationship with the United States. In 1947, the United Nations had made
the United States the administrator of Micronesia (which encompasses more than two thousand islands) as a "strategic
trust." This action authorized the United States to use the area for military purposes. In exchange, the United States
would "protect" the islands from invaders. Ironically, over the next eleven years, the real invader was the protector --
the United States itself. The U.S. government tested sixty-nine atomic and hydrogen bombs on the islands, rendering
some of them permanently uninhabitable. Diana Davenport (1989), a native of Rongelap Atoll, remembers witnessing
the blast of the hydrogen bomb Bravo, dropped on neighboring Bikini Atoll in 1954:
Electricity crackled through my father's body, and during the flash my mother saw all her bones, her arms and legs,
and hips, glowing through her skin. Windows shattered, animals bled through their eyes. Bikini Atoll become
debris. . . . Six hours after the "Bravo" blast, something rioted down on us, on our water and food. Like starflakes, or
shavings of the moon. We danced in it, we played with it. It didn't go away. . . . We were caught in the fallout that
scientists named "Bikini Snow." (61)
Within twenty-four hours, everyone on Rongelap showed signs of radiation sickness. The legacy of this contamination
continues in the form of all sorts of health calamities, including "Blindness. Thyroid tumors. Miscarriages. Jelly. fish
babies. Mental retardation. Sterility. Lung cancer. Kidney cancer. Liver cancer. Sarcoma. Lymphoma. Leukemia. . . .
Retardation. Infants born who leaked through one's fingers like breathing bags of jelly. Others with long, twisted
pincers like crabs" ( Davenport 1989 , 62). More than 50 percent of the deaths on Rongelap each year are children
under five.
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Childbirth has become, in Davenport's word, a "metaphor" for the monstrosity of the future in a postnuclear world. With
no sense of irony, nuclear father Reagan employed a metaphor of healthy children growing up and leaving home in his
formal 1984 good-bye to the Marshall Islands:
Greetings. For many years a very special relationship has existed between the United States and the people of the
trust territory. . . . Under the trusteeship, we've come to know and respect you as members of our American family.
And now, as happens to all families, members grow up and leave home. I want you to know that we wish you all the
best. . . . We look forward to continuing our close relationship to you in your new status. But you'll always be family to
us. ( O'Rourke 1986)
Here Reagan revealed himself as the ultimate unthinking and unthinkable father. His own role and the "American
family" to which he referred represented, on a global scale, the "toxic parenting" and "dysfunctional family" of scores of
best-selling recovery books. The "family" he described is one afflicted by a severely disordered and abusive father --
one who more or less destroys the next generation, physically and/or psychically, and then denies his own horrendous
behavior and tries to coerce everyone else into the denial as well.
Incest is the atrocity most paradigmatic of fatherly abuse. In her essay "The Color of Holocaust," novelist Patricia A.
Murphy (1985) uses nuclear metaphors to describe both her incest experience and the interior self of her
father/perpetrator:
The nuclear winter resonates through our culture reaching into our global imagery as expressed through television. It
extends into the secret heart of the family and finally into that private space inside our own skins. The color of this
winter is ash, which seems to be the color of all holocausts public and private. My father and I were once children of
the sky. That great blue bowl which hangs over the limitless prairie where we both experienced our childhoods a
generation apart. He is the color of ash now like a stain on that sky. He smudges life itself. . . . My father has
surrendered to the nuclear winter within. ( Murphy 1985, unpaged)
Murphy reminds us that there would not be an external bomb unless a bomb also existed in the hearts of men, and
that the nuclear winter is a psychic state of blight as well as a physical one. Her father, she tells us, is an artificial
season, a destroyed atmosphere, a stifler of breath, life, and color, a sorry substitute for that older, original, nurturing
father she simultaneously invokes: Father Sky. Barbara Gowdy's Falling Angels ( 1990) also sets up a metaphoric link
between nuclear devastation and incest. This novel tells the story of a 1960s nuclear family consisting of a tyrannical
and crazed father, a nearly catatonic alcoholic mother, and three daughters. One Christmas, the father bestows
minimal and despised presents on his daughters, telling them that in the summer they will take a trip to Disneyland.
However, in the spring, heeding media messages of an imminent Soviet attack, the father begins frenzied work on a
basement A-bomb shelter. When summer arrives, his daughters find that instead of going to one newly constructed,
controlled environment, Disneyland, they are to spend two weeks together in another such environment -- their father's
brandnew bomb shelter.
The experience in the bomb shelter is, of course, hell on earth: the water supply is insufficient and everyone drinks
whiskey incessantly; the oldest daughter gets her first period, to her unbearable shame; the tyrannical father grows
increasingly cranky, angry, and unpredictable; the air is foul; the toilet backs up, and the stench is unbearable. The
metaphor is unmistakable: nuclear family life, while advertised like Disneyland, to be "the happiest place on earth,"
actually is a lot more like life in a bomb shelter: waiting in cramped quarters amid insane behavior for the "bomb" to
drop. In Gowdy's novel, of course, some years later it does: the father eventually makes incestuous advances toward
the oldest daughter, and the mother eventually kills herself by jumping off the roof of the house. The daughters, with
varying degrees of damage, manage to survive.
The incest-nuclear connection also appears in the 1986 film Desert Bloom, a movie that could easily be subtitled: Or
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love My Stepfather. The setting of the film is Las Vegas in the early 1950s as the
city awaits an impending bomb test. The film focuses on a family composed of a mother, Lilly, her three daughters, and
a stepfather, Jack. Jack is a World War II veteran, wounded in both body and spirit, who desperately seeks esteem
and power through possession of "secret" information obtained via his shortwave radio. Significantly, the family keeps
a number of secrets of its own. Jack is an alcoholic and a bully, lording it over his stepdaughters and his wife, who
placatingly calls him Daddy. Jack's relationship with Rose, the "blooming" pubescent oldest daughter, is charged with
sexual tension: we see him verbally and physically abuse her. Moreover, Rose tells us that "Momma had a way of not
seeing things." In these and other ways, the film strongly implies Jack's sexual abuse of Rose.
Eventually Rose, seeking safety, runs away. Ironically, she ends up at the eminently dangerous nuclear test site,
where she is rounded up by the authorities and returned to Jack, who has followed her trail. As they drive back to the
house, he tells her that he just wants to "protect" her. "From whom?" Rose asks pointedly. The film's parallel between
the incestuous/abusive father and nuclear weapons is extremely persuasive. Each purportedly protects the family and
yet each, in reality, invades it and threatens to destroy its members.
"TRUST ME"
A world once divided into two armed camps now recognizes one sole and preeminent power, the United States of
America. And they regard this with no dread. For the world trusts us with power, and the world is right. They trust us to
be fair, and restrained. They trust us to be on the side of decency. They trust us to do what's right. . . . As long as I am
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president we will continue to lead in support of freedom everywhere, not out of arrogance and not out of altruism, but
for the safety and security of our children. (State of the Union Address, George Bush, 1992)
The incest survivor can be said to be incapable of experiencing trust. She has in fact learned that words don't mean
what they say, that things are not always what they seem, and that what appears safe is generally not to be believed. (
E. Sue Blume, Secret Survivors: Uncovering Incest and its Aftereffects in Women)
"Trust" is one of the key words linking incest and the Bomb on the Newsweek "Future of the Bomb" cover. Witness the
similarity between the incest headline, "Can Memories Be Trusted?" and the bomb headline, "Can We Trust the
Soviets?" Frankly, both of these questions desperately displace the really important concern about trust. That is: can
we trust our fathers, grandfathers, uncles, brothers, priests, old family friends, neighbors, doctors, and teachers around
issues of safety for children? At the same time, based on past deceptions by nuclear authorities, it is absurd to place
much trust in the U.S. government, military, and associated nuclear facilities around issues of nuclear safety.
When I was about twelve, the older boys in my neighborhood used to sexually harass girls by playing a game called
"Trust Me." A boy would put his hand on the top button of a girl's blouse, unbutton it, and ask "Trust me?" The girl was
supposed to say "Yes," even as he proceeded to uncover her breasts or shove his hand down her pants, all the while
reiterating, "Trust me?"
During the 1950s, United States military and government officials played "Trust Me" not only with the Pacific peoples of
the United Nations "trust territory" but also with countless U.S. citizens, including: lower-echelon military personnel
who, as part of their duties, were exposed to radiation from bomb tests; the residents of northern Arizona, Nevada, and
Utah who regularly were hit with fallout from above-ground bomb tests; uranium miners (a great number of whom were
Lakota, Kaibab Paiute, Navaho, and Pueblo Native Americans); and the residents of areas where nuclear production
facilities like Hanford and Oak Ridge were located.
Throughout the era of above-ground testing ( 1951-1963), the Atomic Energy Commission and the United States
government engaged in a "sustained and wide-ranging effort" (Boyer 1985, 318) to fool the public about the dangers
associated with nuclear development and above-ground bomb testing. In the aftermath of the attacks on Japan, the
U.S. government actually denied the lethal and disabling effects of the radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki
bombs by dismissing statements about them as "Japanese propaganda." By 1950, the Federal Civil Defense Agency
was claiming that nuclear war survival was simply a matter of "keeping one's head" and making sure to "duck and
cover." In 1953, President Eisenhower advised the Atomic Energy Commission to keep the public "confused" about
any hazards associated with radiation. Despite warnings from scientists such as Linus Pauling, the official line was that
"low" levels of radiation were perfectly safe, that people could trust the government to protect them, and that bomb
tests were in our best interest. By and large, U.S. citizens believed the government, embraced the bomb through a
million popular songs and artifacts, and accepted the notion of the "peaceful atom." Many of these people later
developed cancer, sterility, and other serious and frequently lethal health problems in return for their trust ( Gallagher
1993).
Now, after decades of enforced secrecy, information is beginning to be released about the massive extent of this
betrayal of trust by the nuclear industry, the Atomic Energy Commission, and their supporters throughout the
government. Tom Bailie ( 1990) is a resident of the desperately contaminated area in Washington state around the
Hanford Nuclear Reservation. He characterizes his experience as a virtual rape since the day he was born:
As downwinders, born and raised downwind of the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington, we learned several
years ago that the government decided -- with cold deliberation -- to use us as guinea pigs by releasing radioactivity
into our food, water, milk and air without our consent. Now, we've learned that we can expect continuing cancer cases
from our exposure in their "experiment." Is this what it feels like to be raped? The exposure began the same day our
lives began. ( Bailie 1990 , 19)
Bailie observes that even after the government admitted that radioactivity had been released, residents were
continually reassured there would be no "observable" health consequences. However, the reason that negative health
effects were not observable was not because there was an absence of harm, but because the consequences of
radioactive contamination were perceived as normal: "Unknowingly, we had been seeing the effects for a long time.
For us, the unusual was the usual!" (19) Bailie recalls nuclear cleanup crews, "men dressed in space suits," wandering
around his town throughout his childhood, nice guys who gave him candy. He remembers the "neck massages" he and
other children received from the school nurse, who was actually looking for thyroid problems. He remembers farm
animal mutations, a high rate of human and animal miscarriage, and a high local cancer rate. To Bailie, all of this was
perceived as "normal," including his own horrific health consequences, starting with underdeveloped lungs and
numerous birth defects. Eventually he "underwent multiple surgeries, endured paralysis, endured thyroid medication, a
stint in an iron lung, loss of hair, sores all over my body, fevers, dizziness, poor hearing, asthma, teeth rotting out and,
at age 18, a diagnosis of sterility."
Bailie's perception of the normalcy of abuse corresponds. almost perfectly with testimony from people who literally
were raped from birth. One incest survivor, Kyos Featherdancing, was raped by her father from the time she was a
baby. Until she was nine years old, she thought that "every father did that with their daughter" (in Bass and Davis 1988
, 395). Just as Bailie "thought all kids lived with death and deformity," Featherdancing assumed that all kids lived with
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incest. She too mistook the abnormal for the normal and suffered long-term damage from the normalized abuse. In her
case, this included drug addiction, alcoholism, and self-hatred.
Lifton points to the shame of many Hiroshima survivors, their "sense of impaired body substance." He observes:
"Radiation effects . . . are such that the experience has had no cutoff point. Survivors have the possibility of
experiencing delayed but deadly radiation effects for the rest of their lives. That possibility extends to their children, to
their children's children, indefinitely into the future" ( Lifton and Falk 1992 , 45-46). Like many survivors of Hiroshima,
the survivors of incest often are frightened to have children, for the effects of incest, like the effects of radiation, are
insidious, long term, and transmitted through generations. They, too, often lie harbored in the victim until they later
erupt into disease or disorder. Some of the long-term effects of incest include fear, anxiety, anger, and hostility; eating
disorders; allergies and asthma; shame; low self-esteem; guilt; depression; inability to trust or to establish
relationships; phobias; multiple personality disorder; sexual dysfunction; a tendency toward revictimization through
participating in such activities as prostitution; drug addiction; alcoholism; self-mutilation; and suicide ( Wyatt and Powell
1988).
OFFICIAL SECRECY
Except possibly for the word "silence" and maybe the word "safety," the word "secret" recurs more than any other in
feminist discussions of incest. Psychiatric social worker Florence Rush ( 1980) calls the sexual abuse of children
patriarchy's "best-kept secret." Sociologist Diana Russell ( 1984) speaks of incest as "the secret trauma," marked by "a
vicious cycle of betrayal, secrecy, unaccountability, repetition, and damaged lives" (16). Similarly, as any analyst of
nuclear culture knows, an unprecedented and profoundly enforced official secrecy is the most prominent feature of the
history of nuclear development ( Lifton and Falk 1992 , 26). Secrecy is fundamental to the abuse of power -- sexual
and otherwise. Protected by the cult of secrecy, fathers molest their daughters; priests violate their flocks;
governments test nuclear weapons on human populations; including their own; and weapons laboratories and defense
contractors plan, manufacture, and mismanage weapons without public knowledge, scrutiny, or criticism. Secrecy in
the nuclear world, moreover, creates a select club of those "in the know," bestows a sense of privilege, and fosters in-
group loyalty. It encourages the arms race, allows safety problems to remain uninvestigated and unresolved at any
number of nuclear weapons facilities in both the United States and the former Soviet Union, and has enabled
disastrous accidents to be completely covered up.
So, too, the truth about child sexual abuse is covered up regularly, by individual perpetrators and the enabling culture.
At the outset, children are told by abusers that their sexual activity is a secret that must never be told, frequently under
threat of abandonment or death (for themselves or loved ones). If the children disregard that prohibition and tell the
truth, they all too often are not believed. The invalidation of children's words, the characterization of their reports as
fantasy, and massive community denial and resistance to believing in the abusive practices of paternal authorities
(individual or institutional) have long histories in psychoanalytic theory and everyday practice ( Summitt 1988).
This scenario of silence, secrecy, denial, avoidance, erasure, initial embrace of the trusted father-figure abuser, and
victim blaming unerringly mirrors the typical responses of nuclear communities to complaints against the institutional
abusers in their midst. Tom Bailie ( 1990) reveals what happened when his family blew the whistle on the devastation
caused by Hanford:
Our patriotism has been impugned, our credibility questioned. . . . We have been slandered as the "glow in the dark
family" by friends and strangers alike. . . . Moscow was condemned for its three days of silence after the Chernobyl
nuclear accident. What about Washington's 40 years of silence? ( Bailie 1990 , 19)
Marylia Kelley is a resident of Livermore, California -- home of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory. She is also a
founder of Tri-Valley CARE -- Citizens Against a Radioactive Environment. When she moved to Livermore in 1976,
she knew there was some "super-secret government facility" where almost everyone worked, but neither she nor
anyone she spoke to seemed to have a clear idea about what went on there. There was some awareness that nuclear
weapons work was occurring there, but most people dismissed it as constituting only a small proportion, maybe 10
percent, of the lab's actual endeavors. (In truth, weapons work accounted for about 90 percent of the lab's activities.)
As antinuclear activists increasingly converged upon Livermore in the 1980s, local residents like Kelley became
interested in finding out the truth. Yet local activism faced a certain measure of resistance since so many community
members were economically dependent on the nuclear facility. After several years of deliberate non - cooperation,
some of the churches agreed in 1989 to sponsor a series of talks entitled "Pathways to Peace," to be held in
neighboring Pleasanton. Lectures were given over a six-week period, but, Kelley reports, not once did anyone mention
Lawrence Livermore lab. As she told me in a 1993 conversation, "I felt like the community was keeping a dirty secret,
and it was breaking a taboo to speak the name Livermore in a public way.
In other words, making genocidal bombs isn't taboo, but speaking out against them is. So too, as many observers
note, incest is not really taboo in our culture, but speaking out against it is. The "dirty secret" scenario Kelley describes
parallels the protection by family members of a trusted and/or economically powerful child abuser and the concomitant
silencing of victims. Kelley concludes that one of the most important features of CARE's activism is to overcome this
obeisance to secrecy and to get people to "name things by their true names, to find their voice." Indeed, in order to
thwart both child sexual abuse and nuclearism, we must, in the phrase commonly used by survivors, "break silence."
We must begin to spill those long held and closely guarded secrets and, concomitantly, believe the unbelievable, be it
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that a fine churchgoing family man is sexually abusing his daughter or that high rates of thyroid and brain cancer (such
as those in Los Alamos) are due to radioactive contamination.
KEEPING SECRETS FROM ONESELF
"What was your family life like, Savannah?" I asked, pretending I was conducting an interview.
"Hiroshima," she whispered.
"And what has life been like since you left the warm, abiding bosom of your nurturing, close-knit family?"
"Nagasaki," she said, a bitter smile on her face. ( The Prince of Tides, Pat Conroy.)
Victims of incest often seek temporary refuge in numbing, denial, and massive repression, keeping their worst secret
even from themselves because confronting incest in their own lives is truly "thinking about the unthinkable." Pat
Conroy's best-selling novel, The Prince of Tides, elaborates a complex narrative, encompassing nuclear devastations,
the secrets of family life, and child rape. The book's narrator, Tom Wingo, tells us that he and his twin sister Savannah
"entered the scene in the middle of a world war at the fearful dawning of the atomic age" (9). Their childhood was
simultaneously haunted by a terror of their father's recurrent brutality, directed against them and their mother. While
the world anticipated nuclear war, their "childhood was spent waiting for him to attack."
Tom further reveals that his is "a family of well-kept secrets and they all nearly end up killing us" (97). His father, Henry
Wingo, relentlessly batters his family. His mother, Lila Wingo, adamantly forbids her three children to reveal their
father's brutality. She also conceals the fact that she has been stalked by a rapist and murderer. Yet, the repressed
returns, this time with apocalyptic virulence. The stalker and two other men escape from prison and come to the
family's home while Henry is absent. They rape and try to kill Lila, Tom, and Savannah and are thwarted only because
Luke, the oldest son, manages to disrupt the assaults and lead a lethal attack against the invaders. Lila orders
everyone to render the event permanently unspeakable and unthinkable, meaning that everyone must wipe it from
memory. Tom can't stop himself from remembering; still, he brackets that knowledge and refuses to deal with its
implications or speak of it. Savannah completely expunges this and other horrific memories from her consciousness.
She goes on to become an extraordinarily gifted poet, yet she regularly attempts suicide. Some years later, Lila
conspires to sell off the Wingo family South Carolina island home to the U.S. government so that it can build a nuclear
weapons facility there. Utterly opposed to nuclear weapons, Luke becomes a one-man guerrilla army, battling the
construction of the plant. In a few months, he is shot and killed.
Savannah Wingo's name is not arbitrary. One of the United States'primary nuclear weapons facilities is the Savannah
River Plant, located in South Carolina. For years, Savannah River was the major source of tritium for U.S. nuclear
weapons, but it was closed for the first time in 1988 due to its unsafe practices. As recent investigations reveal, the
Savannah River facility has a "long and shocking record of serious incidents of radioactive contamination and unsafe
disposal of waste," hazards that the Department of Energy "has long attempted to keep . . . from public view" ( Glenn
1988 ). The Savannah River, like the Columbia, is one of the most toxic bodies of water in the world.
Numbing, repression of memory, and denial characterize the Wingo family, patterns that serve as microcosmic mirrors
for larger nuclearist abuse. Robert Jay Lifton and Eric Markusen ( 1990 , 13) detail that denial, numbing, dissociation
or splitting, and even "doubling" ("the formation of a functional second self") are not only classic responses of victims of
genocidal practices but also characterize victimizer consciousness. In special circles, these ways of numbing are
actually celebrated and encouraged. For example, General Curtis LeMay, who oversaw the Hiroshima bombing and
the creation of the Strategic Air Command (SAC), was popularly portrayed, with no onus attached, as "more machine
than man." Spencer Weart notes that in his capacity as head of SAC, "LeMay took care to select only officers like
himself, men who kept their feelings under strict control" ( Weart 1989 , 149). Bombing, as one writer explained in the
Saturday Evening Post, "had to be done 'mechanically, with swift, sure precision, undisturbed by emotion, either of fear
. . . or pity' " (cited in Weart 1989 , 149). LeMay himself recalled that when he flew bombers over Germany, "his
imagination had caught a picture of a little girl down below, horribly burned and crying for her mother. 'You have to turn
away from the picture, he said, 'if you intend to keep on doing the work your Nation expects of you' " (cited in Weart
1989 , 149).
I wager that unapologetic incestuous abusers might sound very much like LeMay-riveted on their own conquest or
pleasure and steeling themselves to turn away from the "little girl down below," crying, injured, and annihilated. Just as
the survivor splits into a "day child" and a "night child" ( Atler 1991 , 90), so does the abuser create a second self,
enabling him to perform atrocities and to keep the secret of his depredations even from himself. With such abusers,
psychic numbing means never having to say you're sorry.
Another method of inculcating nuclear numbing is to render weapons work an always unfinished jigsaw puzzle.
General Leslie Groves, who was the military chief of the Manhattan Project, initiated a policy of "compartmentalization
of knowledge." This policy ensured that "each man should know everything he needed to know about doing his job and
nothing else" ( Lifton and Falk 1992 , 26). The internalization of this mentality among nuclear workers guarantees that
none of them needs to face what he or she is doing. After living in Albuquerque for over ten years and speaking to
scores of people who work at either Sandia or Los Alamos national laboratories, I rarely meet anyone who
acknowledges working on nuclear weapons. Nearly everyone claims to perform some specialized, unrelated task.
Even those technicians who acknowledge that they are making weapons often mute their awareness with truly
stunning doublethink. As one weapons designer at Lawrence Livermore lab told an interviewer, "We're working on
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weapons of life, ones that will save people from weapons of death" (cited in Broad 1985 , 47). Similarly, many
incesters deny that they are grievously injuring children. In their minds, they are pleasuring the children, helping them
to attain adulthood, loving them, giving them only what they want, responding to their initiation of sex play, and so on.
A January 1991 issue of Time magazine opted to name George Bush not "Man," but "Men of the Year" and actually
depicted a two-faced presidential image on its cover. Such doubling nominally referred to Bush's disparate record on
international and domestic affairs. Yet, this image simultaneously portrayed the "doubling" propensity of nuclear fathers
and prepared the nation for Bush's role as commander in chief of the Persian Gulf War and mass murderous activities
by the U.S. military. A similar construction appeared in a 1991 advertisement for the Army National Guard. It depicted
a young man whose face was split precisely down the middle. On the right, it was a relatively normal face. On the left,
the face was heavily painted camouflage style; the eye was widely opened and stared threateningly. This ad was stark
testimony to the military's normative inculcation of a secret "killer self" within the soldier. It also portrayed the fissioned
configurations of not only official femininity but also of official masculinity in the nuclear-fathered world.
TABOO VIOLATION: JUST DO IT
Our mission: to boldly go where no man has gone before. (Star Trek)
In scores of nuclear movies such as the 1958Teenage Caveman and the 1968 Planet of the Apes, there is a recurrent
motif: the "forbidden zone," an area closely guarded by taboo that no one may enter. Usually, this area is contaminated
by radiation from some long-ago nuclear war. In pro-technology films like Teenage Caveman the hero is the one who
disregards the taboo and boldly strides into the proscribed area.
The 1956 film Forbidden Planet puts a different twist on this theme. A scientist, Morbius, lives alone on the
paradisiacal planet Altair with his full,grown daughter, Altaira. Domestic chores are performed by a marvelously
efficient robot named Robby. A spaceship from earth arrives to find out what happened to the original landing party
that came to the planet twenty years ago. Morbius attempts to make them go away. He tells them that, in essence, the
entire planet is taboo to them, for there is a deadly force on the planet that killed everyone in the landing party except
himself and his daughter. Nevertheless, the captain of the ship refuses to leave.
As a sexual attraction develops between the captain and the daughter, the deadly planetary force again makes an
appearance, threatening the men and their ship. Ultimately, we learn that the lethal force is generated by the jealous
Morbius's own mind. The planet Altair formerly was inhabited by members of a technologically superior civilization, the
Krell. Although they wiped themselves out years ago "in a single night," the Krell left behind the agent of their own
destruction, a vast nuclear-powered machine. Morbius, lusting for the Krell's technological knowledge, has been able
to tap into the machine's power, allowing him to produce externally all that he can imagine, such as the marvelous
Robby. But, Morbius is operating under a serious mantle of denial. He is transgressing profoundly against self-, family-,
and planetary-preservative taboos in his unbounded quest for both sexual and technological knowledge. The Krell
machine manifests in material reality not only his conscious wishes but also his most awful unconscious thoughts and
desires, unleashing "monsters from the id." The lethal planetary force, then, is actually an externalization of Morbius's
unconscious. When his incestuous paradise with his "forbidden partner," his daughter, is threatened, his unconscious
strikes out to eliminate the threat. In the film's climactic moment, Morbius faces his own evil self and the experience
does indeed destroy him. Romance, however, manages to "save" Altaira. She and the captain escape into space,
bringing Robby with them, while Morbius and the planet that shares Altaira's name are blown to bits.
The word forbidden in the film's title speaks not only to the archetypal "forbidden knowledge" that structures both
ancient myths and mad-scientist movies, but also to the forbidden incestuous relationship that the father imposes on
his daughter. Forbidden Planet is basically a conservative movie: it sets up pairs of false dichotomies and then in a tidy
resolution replaces the "bad" heterosexual domination -- incest with her father -- with "good" heterosexual domination
-- marriage to the captain. Similarly, the "bad" nuclear technology -- represented by the Krell machine -- is replaced
with "good" nuclear technology -- in the form of Robby the Robot.
Yet, however conventional, Forbidden Planet once again holds up for view the connection between the incestuous
father and nuclearism. If we look past the film's false oppositions, we can discern an unmistakable parallel between
Morbius's unbounded quest for knowledge and his incestuous depredations. As Catharine MacKinnon sums it up,
"Sexual metaphors for knowing are no coincidence. . . . Feminists are beginning to understand that to know has meant
to fuck" (1983, 636). Manifestly, in the patriarchal tradition, knowledge is power (domination) just as space exists to be
invaded. It was this reigning pornographic paradigm of knowledge that fired the drive to gain nuclear knowledge or, as
the most common scientific metaphors put it, "to penetrate the hidden mysteries," to investigate "the most intimate
properties of matter," and even to "smash resistant atoms" (Weart 1989, 58).
While social lip service is widely given to the incest taboo, Diana Russell (1986, 16) suggests that a minimum of one of
every six women in the United States has been incestuously abused. The violation of life-preservative taboo so
characteristic of incestuous practice equally underwrites much technological adventuring. J. Robert Oppenheimer, for
example, reflecting on the quest to split the atom, avowed, "It is my judgment in these things that when you see
something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it, and you argue about what to do about it only after you
have had your technical success" (cited in Lifton 1979 , 425). Under the reigning ideologies of knowledge, power, and
progress, there is no ethic of respect for others, no limit on phallic desires, no prudent calculation of future
consequences. Whether advancing upon the "final frontier" of outer space, probing the "most intimate properties of
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matter," taking possession of desirable and colonizable "virgin land," or staking a claim on the body of a child,
patriarchal men routinely disregard any notion of taboo or limitation and continually give themselves permission to
"boldly go where no man has gone before."
NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE PSYCHOLOGICALLY ROOTED IN THE SEPARATION BETWEEN “SPIRIT” AND
“BODY” REQUIRING THE CONSTRUCTION OF A DUAL SELF THAT SEPARATES AND SUPPRESSES EMOTIVE,
EMBODIED FORMS OF KNOWING. THIS DUALISM CREATES AN INTERNAL SENSE OF SELF HATRED AND A
DESIRE FOR TOTAL ANNIHILATION TO ESCAPE THE FLESH OF THIS WORLD.
GRIFFIN, 1984
Susan, Ideologies of Madness, Exposing Nuclear Phallacies pg 75-83
If one approaches the explosion of a nuclear weapon as if this were symptomatic of an underlying mental condition,
certain facets begin to take on metaphorical meaning. Even the simplest physical aspects of a nuclear chain reaction
carry a psychological significance. In order for a chain reaction to be created, the atom must be split apart, the fabric of
matter has to be torn asunder. In a different vein, it is important to realize that the first atomic weapons were dropped
over a people regarded in the demonology of our civilization as racially inferior. Tangentially, and carrying a similar
significance, the first nuclear device exploded over Bikini Atoll had a pin-up of Rita Hayworth pasted to its surface. And
then, taking from a history that has largely been forgotten or ignored, the prototype of the first missiles capable of
carrying nuclear warheads was invented and designed in the Third Reich. And those first rockets, the German V-2
rockets, were produced in underground tunnels by prisoners of concentration camps who were worked to death in this
production.
These facts of the existence of nuclear weaponry can lead us to a deeper understanding of the troubled mind that has
created our current nuclear crisis. To begin at one particular kind of beginning, with the history of thought, one can see
the philosophical roots of our current crisis in the splitting of the atom. In the most basic terms, what occurs when the
atom is split is a division between energy and matter. Until this century, modern science assumed matter and energy
to be separate. This assumption began not with scientific observation but out of a religious bias. Examining the early
history of science, one discovers that the first scientists were associated with and supported by the church (as was
most scholarship at that time) and that they asked questions derived from Christian theology. “What is the nature of
light?” a question intimately bound up with the theory of relativity and quantum physics began as a religious question.
And the guiding paradigm of the religion that posed this question has been a fundamental dualism degraded regions,
belonging to the devil and corruption. Spirit, or the realm of pure intellect and heavenly influence, belonged to God,
and was, in human experience, won only at the expense of flesh.
Of course, science does not recognize the categories of spirit and matter any longer, except through a process of
translation. The new vocabulary, though, the old dualism has been preserved. Now, matter the equivalent of spirit, is
described as a free agent, inspiring and enlivening. Newtonian physics continued the old dualism, but Einsteinian
physics does not.
When Einstein discovered the formula that eventually led to the development of the atomic bomb, what he saw was a
continuum between matter and energy, instead of a separation. What we call solid matter is not solid, nor is it static.
Matter is, instead, a process of continual change. There is no way to divide the energy of this motion from the physical
property of matter. What is more, energy has mass. And not only is there no division between matter and energy as
such, but to divide any single entity from any other single entity becomes an impossibility. No particular point exists
where my skin definitely ends and the air in the atmosphere begins and this atmosphere ends and your skin begins.
We are all in a kind of field together. And finally, with the new physics, the old line between subject and object has also
disappeared. According to Heisenberg’s Principle of Uncertainty, whatever we observe we change through our
participation. Objectivity with its implied superiority and control has also vanished.
One might imagine that with the disappearance of a scientific basis for dualism and the appearance of a physical view
that is unified and whole a different philosophy might arise, one which might help us make peace with nature. But
instead what this civilization chose to do with this new insight was to find a way to separate matter from energy (it is
spoken of as “liberating” the energy from the atom). And this separation has in turn produced a technology of violence
which has divided the world into two separate camps who regard each other as enemies.
The real enemy, however, in dualistic thinking, is hidden: the real enemy is ourselves. The same dualism which
imagines matter and energy to be separate also divides human nature, separating what we call our material existence
from consciousness. This dualism is difficult to describe without using dualistic language. Actually, the mind cannot be
separated from the body. The brain is part of the body, and is affect by blood flow, temperature, nourishment, muscular
movement. The order and rhythm of the body, bodily metaphors, are reflect in the medium of thought, in our patterns
of speech. Yet, we conceive of the mind as separate and above the body. And through a subtle process of
socialization since birth, we learn to regard the body and our natural existence as something inferior, and without
intelligence. Most of the rules of polite behavior are designed to conceal the demands of the body. We excuse
ourselves, and refer to our bodily functions through euphemism.
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From this dualistic frame of mind two selves are born: one acknowledged and one hidden. The acknowledged self
identifies with spirit, with intellect, with what we imagine is free of the influence of natural law. The hidden self is part of
nature, earthbound, inextricable from the matrix of physical existence. We have become very seriously alienated from
this denied self. So seriously that our alienation has become a kind of self-hatred, and this self-hatred is leading us
today toward the suicidal notion of nuclear combat.
Of course, the body and mind are not separate. And ironically, the warfare incipient between our ideas of who we are
and who we really are is made more intense through this unity. Consciousness cannot exclude bodily knowledge. We
are inseparable from nature, dependent on the biosphere, vulnerable to the processes of natural law. We cannot
destroy the air we breath without destroying ourselves. We are reliant on one another for our survival. We are all
mortal. And this knowledge comes to us, whether we want to receive it or not, with every breath.
The dominant philosophies of this civilization have attempted to posit a different order of being over and against this
bodily knowledge. According to this order of being, we are separate from nature and hence above natural process. In
the logic of this order, we are meant to dominate nature, control life, and in some sense felt largely unconsciously,
avoid the natural event of death.
Yet, in order to maintain a belief in this hierarchy one must repress bodily knowledge. And this is no easy task. Our
own knowledge of our own natural existence comes to us not only with every breath, but with hunger, with intimacy,
with dreams, with all the unpredictable eventualities of life. Our imagined superiority over nature is constantly
challenged by consciousness itself. Consciousness emergence from and is immersed in material experience
Consciousness is not separated from perception, which is not to sensuality, and as such cannot be separated from
matter. Even through the process of the most abstract thought, we cannot entirely forget that we are part of nature. In
the biosphere nothing is ever entirely lost. Death itself is not an absolute end, but rather a transformation. What
appears to be lost in a fire becomes heat and ash. So, too, no knowledge can ever really be lost to consciousness. It
must remain, even if disguised as a mere symbol of itself.
If I choose to bury a part of myself, what I bury will come back to haunt me in another form, as dream, or fear, or
projection. This civilization, which has buried part of the human self, has created many projections. Out of the material
of self-hatred several categories of otherness have been fashioned existing on a mass scale and by social agreement,
these categories form a repository for our hidden selves.
The misogynist’s idea of women is a fundamental category of otherness for this civilization. In the ideology of
misogyny, a woman is a lesser being than a man. And the root cause of her inferiority is that she is closer to the earth,
more animal, and hence, material in her nature. She is thus described as more susceptible to temptations of the flesh
(or devils, or serpents), more emotional and hence less capable of abstract thought than a man. Similarly in the
ideology of racism, a person with dark skin is perceived as, at one and the same time, more sensual and erotic and
less intelligent.
During the rise of fascism in Europe, a fictitious document was created called the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. In
this “document” Jewish elders plan to corrupt and eventually seize Aryan bloodlines through the rape and seduction of
Aryan women. If one has projected a part of the self upon another, one must always be afraid that this self will return,
perhaps even entering one’s own bloodstream. But what is equally significant about this myth, and much of the racist
and anti-Semitic imagination, is that a sexual act, and especially rape, lies at the heart of its mythos.
It was in writing a book on pornography that I first began to understand the ideology of misogynist protection. Since so
much in pornography is violent, I began to ask myself why sexual experience is associated with violence. This is a
question which poses itself again in the context of nuclear weaponry, not only because Rita Hayworth’s image
happened to adorn an experimental nuclear bomb, nor simply because of the phallic shape of the missile, nor the
language employed to describe the weapons—the first atomic bomb called “little boy,” the next “big boy”—but also
because of the sexualization of warfare itself, the eroticization of violence in war, the supposed virility of the soldier, the
test of virility which is supposed to take place on the battlefield, and the general equivalency between masculine
virtues and prowess in battle.
Over time in my study of pornography I began to understand pornographic imagery as an expression of the fear of
sexual experience itself. Sexual experience takes one back to a direct knowledge of nature and of one’s own body
before culture has intervened to create the delusion of dominance. It is part of the nature of sexual pleasure and of
orgasm to lose control. And finally the feel of a woman’s breast, or of human skin against bare skin at all, must recall
infancy and the powerlessness of infancy.
As infants we all experience an understanding of dependence and vulnerability. Our first experience of a natural,
material power outside ourselves was through the bodies of our mothers. In this way we have all come to associate
nature with the body of a woman. It was our mother who could feed us, give us warmth and comfort, or withhold these
things. She had the power of life and death over us as natural process does now.
It was also as infants that we confronted what we have come to know as death. What we call death—coldness,
isolation, fear, darkness, despair, trembling—is really the experience of an infant. What death really is lies in the
dimension of the unknown. But from the infantile experience of what we call death, one can seethe psychological
derivation of civilization’s association between women and death. (One sees this clearly in the creation myth from
Genesis, as Eve the seductress brings death into the world.) In this sense, too, sexual experience returns one to a
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primal fear of death. And through this understanding one can begin to see that at the center of the impulse to rape is
the desire to dominate the power of sexual experience itself, and to deny the power of nature as this is felt through
sexual experience.
The connection between sexuality and violence exists as a kind of subterranean theme in the fascists and authoritarian
mentality. In several places in Jacobo Timmerman’s book, Prisoner Without a Name, Cell Without a Number, he points
out a relationship between the violence of the dictator and a pornographic attitude toward sexuality. Imprisoned and
tortured himself, he recalls that those who did not do “a good scrubbing job” when ordered to clean the prison floors,
were forced to “undress, lean over with their index finger on the ground and have them rotate round and round
dragging their finger on the ground without lifting it. You felt,” he writes, “as if your kidneys were bursting.” Another
punishment was to force prisoners to run naked along the passageway “reciting aloud sayings dictated” tot hem, such
as “my mother is a whore, I masturbate, I respect the guard, the police love me.”
That, to the fascist mind, “the other” represents a denied part of the self becomes clear in the following story about
Adolf Hitler. In a famous passage in Mein Kampf he describes the moment when he decided to devote his life’s work to
anti-Semitism. He recounts that while walking through the streets of Vienna, he happened to see an old man dressed
in the traditional clothes of Jewish men in that city at that time i.e., in a Kaftan. The first question he asked was, “Is this
man Jewish?” and he corrected himself, and replaced that question with another, “is this man German?”
If you are to project a denied self onto another, you must first establish that this other is different from yourself. Were
you to notice any similarity, you would be endangered by the perception that what you project may belong to you. The
question that Hitler asked himself became a standard part of German textbooks in the Third Reich. A stereotypical
portrait of a Jewish man’s face was shown under the question, “Is this man German?” and the correct answer the
students were taught was, of course, “No.” In fact, Germany became a nation rather late. For centuries it existed as a
collection of separate tribes, and one of the oldest tribes in that nation was Jewish.
Hitler’s story of the man in the Kaftan became a standard part of his orations. He would become nearly hysterical at
times telling the story, and is said to have even vomited once. In the light of this history, a seemingly trivial story from
Hitler’s early life becomes significant. As a young art student he bought his clothes secondhand, because like many
students, he was poor. In this period most of those selling secondhand clothing were Jewish and Hitler bought from a
Jewish clothes seller one item of clothing that he wore so often that he began to be identified with this apparel. And
that was a Kaftan.
What is also interesting historically is that the Kaftan was a form of medieval German dress. Exiled from Germany
during a period of persecution, many Jews, who then lived in ghettoes, continued to wear this traditional German dress
and were still fearing it when they returned to Germany centuries later. Not only did Hitler fail to recognize an image of
himself encountered in the streets of Vienna, but so did an entire generation of Germans. So an entire civilization, that
to which we all belong, is in conflict with a part of human nature, which we try to bury and eventually even destroy.
The weapons that now threaten the destruction of the earth and life as we know it were developed because the allied
nations feared that the fascist powers were making them. The missiles which are now part and parcel of nuclear
weaponry were first developed in the Third Reich. It is crucial now in our understanding of ourselves and what it is in
us that has led to the nuclear crisis that we begin to look at the Nazi holocaust as a mirror, finding a self-portrait in “the
other” who is persecuted and denied, and seeing a part of ourselves too in the fascist dictator who would destroy that
denied self.
The illusion this civilization retains, that we are somehow above nature, is so severe that in a sense we have come to
believe that we can end material existence without dying. The absurdity of nuclear weaponry as a strategy for defense,
when the use of those weapons would annihilate us, would in itself argue this. But if you look closely at the particulars
of certain strategies within the overall nuclear strategy you again encounter the same estranged relationship with
reality. A man who used to be in Reagan’s administration, T.K. Jones, actually proposed that a viable method of civil
defense would be to issue each citizen a shovel.
It took an eight year old boy to point out that this plan cannot work because after you dig a hole and get into it for
protection, someone else must stand outside the hole and shovel dirt on top. The Pentagon refers to its strategies for
waging nuclear war as SIOP. One year the Pentagon actually went through the paces of a SIOP plan. As a literary
scholar I found the scenario which the Pentagon wrote for this dramatization very disturbing. The Pentagon could write
this play any way that they wished, and they wrote that the President was killed with a direct hit to the self. But this
death is not experienced as real. Though the earthly self dies, in the Pentagon’s version, the sky self does not die; The
Vice President goes up in an airplane fully equipped to wage nuclear war by computer. There is such a plane flying
above us now, and at every hour of the day and night.
The division that we experience from the natural self, the self that is material and embedded in nature, impairs our
perceptions of reality. As Timmerman writes:
The devices are recurrent in all totalitarian ideology, to ignore the complexities of reality, or even eliminate reality, and
instead establish a simple goal and a simple means of attaining that goal.
Proceeding both from an alienation from nature, and an estrangement from the natural self, our civilization replaces
reality with an idea of reality. Through maintaining the supremacy of the idea, one creates a delusion of a supernatural
power over nature.
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In the development of this alienation as a slate of mind, the delusion of well-being and safety eventually becomes more
important than the realistic considerations which will actually effect well-being or safety. Hannah Arendt writes of an
illusionary world created by totalitarian movements”…in which through sheer imagination uprooted masses can feel at
home, and are spared the never ending shocks which real life and real experience deal to human beings…” Later, in
the Origins of Totalitarianism, she speaks of the mass state of mind under the third Reich in which people ceased to
believe in what they perceived with their own eyes and ears, preferring the conflicting reports issued by the Fuhrer.
One encounters the same failure to confront reality in Stalin’s psychology as it is described by Isaac Derutchsher in his
biography:
He [Stalin] was now completely possessed by the idea that he could achieve a miraculous transformation of the whole
of Russia by a single tour de force. He seemed to live in a half-real and half-dreamy world of statistical figures and
indices of industrial orders and instructions, a world in which no target and no objective seemed beyond his and the
party’s grasp.
During the period of forced collectivization of farms, Stalin destroyed actual farms before the collectivized farms were
created. As Deutscher writes, it was as if a whole nation destroyed its real houses and moved “lock, stock and barrel
into some illusory buildings.”
We are, in fact, now living in such an illusory building, the entire manner in which plans for a nuclear war are
discussed, rehearsed, and envisioned, partakes of a kind of unreality, an anesthetized and nearly automatic
functioning, in which cerebration is strangely unrelated to experience or feeling. The Generals imagine themselves
conducting nuclear war from a room without windows, with no natural light, choosing strategies and targets by looking
at enormous computerized maps. The language they use to communicate their decisions is all in code. No one uses
the word “war,: the word “bomb,” the word “death,” or the words “blood,” “pain,” “loss,” “grief,” “shock,” or “horror.” In
Siegfried Sassoon’s recollection of World War I, he remembers encountering a man, a soldier like himself, who has
just learned that his brother was killed. The man is half-crazy, tearing his clothes off, and cursing at war. As Sassoon
passed beyond this man into the dark of the war, he could still hear “his uncouth howlings.” It is those “uncouth
howlings” that those who are planning nuclear war have managed to mute in their imagination.
But of course that howling is not entirely lost. In the shared imagination of our civilization, it is the “other” who carries
emotion, the women who howl. And far from wishing to protect the vulnerable and the innocent, it is the secret desire
of this civilization to destroy those who feel, and to silence feeling. This hidden desire becomes apparent in
pornography where women are pictured in a traditional way as weaker than men and needing protection, and yet,
where erotic feeling is freely mixed with the desire to brutalize and even murder women.
One can find a grim picture of the insane logic of the alienated mind of our civilization in the pornographic film “Peeping
Tom.” The hero of this movie is a pornographic film maker. He has a camera armed with a spear. As he photographs a
woman’s naked body, the camera releases the weapon and he makes a record of her death agonies. The final victory
of the alienated mind over reality is to destroy that reality (and one’s experience of it) and replace reality with a record
of that destruction. One finds the same pattern in the history of actual atrocities. In California, a man lured women into
the desert with a promise of work as pornographic models. There, while he tortured and murdered them, he made a
photographic record of the event. The Nazis themselves kept the best documentation of atrocities committed in the
concentration camps. And the most complete records of the destruction of native Americans have been kept by the
United States military.
Now, the state of conflict in which this civilization finds itself has worsened. The enemy is not simply “the other” but life
itself. And it is in keeping with the insane logic of alienation that the Pentagon has found a way that it believes we can
win nuclear war. We have situated satellites in space that will record the process of annihilation of life, and the
Pentagon counts, as a future victor, that nation which has gathered the best documentation of the destruction.
There is however another form of reflection available to us by virtue of our human nature. We are our own witnesses.
We can see ourselves. We are part of nature. And nature is not divided. Matter is intelligent. Feeling, sense, the needs
of the body, all that has been consigned to the “other,” made the province of women, of darkness, contains a deeper
and a sustaining wisdom. It remains for us to empower that knowledge and to carry it into the world. In insanity and
madness, one is lost to oneself. It is only by coming home to ourselves that we can survive.
MERE SURVIVAL IS INSUFFICIENT IN THE FACE OF ONGOING NUCLEAR WAR. DEATH IS INEVITABLE BUT
AFFIRMING THE STRUGGLE AGAINST NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE FACE OF ANNIHILATION IS A LIFE
AFFIRMING ACT NECESSARY FOR INDIVIDUAL VALUE TO EMERGE.
KOVEL, 1984
Joel, Against the State of Nuclear Terror, pg 153-155
To focus only upon survival reveals technocratic politics as opportunistic. Doubtless, everybody wants to survive, but
not everybody wants to survive in a way that values life or dignifies it. The nuclear age, after all, can be interpreted as
an augury of Armageddon, and responded to as such. Thus we have a rash of survivalist periodicals, and cults to
match, in the U.S. The premise of this movement is to imagine a Hobbesian society of “all against all” as a result of the
bomb, and to encourage people to revert to open brutality in order to survive. For example, a recent issue of the
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magazine Survival Guide Describes how to make stone-age weapons (“Using the legacy of prehistory to survive
without the benefit of conventional weapons”), and offers T-shirt with the slogans such as “Gun control is being able to
hit your target” and “Peace through superior firepower.” While this sort of thing might be too repulsive for the average
citizen, what is one to do about the fact that a number of those fundamentally responsible for the conduct of the war in
Vietnam (for example, William Colby, former director of the CIA, and originator of the Phoenix program of
assassinations in Vietnam) have clambered aboard the peace movement, evidently out of fear for their lives. The
question is not whether such as Colby—or Presidential adviser McGeorge Bundy or Robert McNamara, former head of
the Deparment of Defense and World Bank—are to be forgiven for their sins, now that they have declared themselves
for the nuclear freeze. It is rather to establish a basis of antinuclear politics which will allow such questions to be
considered. Mere survival is not enough: everybody wants to survive, mass murderers along with innocent children. An
antinuclear movement has to establish conditions where the value of life is affirmed, and then consider whether or not
somebody is entitled to join it. Technocracy blurs this point and, in so doing, critically weakens the essential thrust
against the state.
Finally, the use of scare tactics only fertilizes the soil once again for nuclear terror. When we experience nothing but
fear, we will stop at nothing to be reassured. But who under these conditions, will reassure us best? The state with its
salve and its projection of the all-justifying Soviet threat –or the peace movement, proposing the novel and risky course
of disarmament? It is no contest. Unless the peace movement can provide an affirmative vision, it is defeated in
advance.
If this is the value of the facts, what is the value beyond the facts? I think this can best be seen through a critique of
mere survival as the ground for antinuclear politics. The point is not only to survive, but to struggle for a life worth
having. This means the realization that nuclear war has already been going on for some time—and that it has
assaulted and degraded us during this time. Therefore, a life worth living is to be attained through the struggle against
the weapons and not simply as an abstract condition for controlling or eliminating them. Once one appreciates this
value, there is no settling for arms control. Strategic arms are themselves an abomination, wielded all the time whether
or not they ever get exploded. Therefore only elimination will do. If Messrs, McNamara and Bundy are willing to
recognize this truth and to own up to all the havoc that their decisions and ways of governing have wreaked upon the
world, then I, for one, would welcome them into the peace movement. If, however, they are simply afraid for their lives
because their machine has gone haywire, and wish to confine themselves to tinkering with it so that it becomes a more
efficient instrument of domination, then I would prefer to keep my distance from them.
One does not attack nuclear arms because they do not work properly, nor because they have become suddenly
dangerous to their masters. One attacks them because they are fiendish instruments of domination. The fact that they
will kill us unless checked is not the main point, since we are all here to die in any case. What galls us is the way this
will happen, the wanton, omnicidal, future-destroying way of it, and what the system of nuclear states mean to the
world right now.
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ABOLISH THE UNITED STATES NUCLEAR ARSENAL
CONTENTION TWO – UNIVERSAL PARENTHOOD

IN REJECTING UNILATERAL DISARMAMENT OPENS OURSELVES TO NEW FORM OF RELATIONS WITH
BIRTH. IN BREAKING THE ATOMIC SWORD, THE AFFIRMATIVE ENABLES A NEW STORY OF HOPE
ENGRAINED IN THE FLESH THAT STANDS IN OPPOSITION TO THE INCESTUOUS NARRATIVE OF
SEPARATION AND DEATH.
ELSHTAIN, FEBRUARY 1985
Jean Bethke, Reflections on War and Political Discourse: Realism, Just War, and Feminism in a Nuclear Age, Political
Theory, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Feb., 1985), pp. 39-57
Evidence of hopelessness is all around us. The majority of young people say they do not believe there will be a future
of any sort. We shake our heads in dismay, failing to see that our social arrangements produce hopelessness and
require it to hold themselves intact. But the ontological possibility for hope is always present, rooted, ultimately, in “the
fact of natality.” Arendt’s metaphor, mostly fully elaborated in the following passage from The Human Condition, is
worth quoting in full:
The miracle that saves the world, the realm of human affairs, from its normal, “natural” ruin is ultimately the fact of
natality, in which the faculty of action is ontologically rooted. It is, in other words, the birth of new human beings and
the new beginning, the action they are capable of by being born. Only the full experience of this capacity can bestow
upon human affairs faith and hope, those two essential characteristics of human existence…that found perhaps their
most glorious and most succinct expression in the new words with which the Gospels accounted their “glad tiding”: ‘A
Child has been born unto us.’
The infant, like all beginnings is vulnerable. We must nurture that beginning, not knowing and not being able to control
the “end” of the story.
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Arendt’s evocation of natal imagery through its most dramatic urrarrative is not offered as an abstraction to be
endorsed abstractly. Rather, she invites us to restore long atrophied dispositions of commemoration and awe; birth,
she declares, is a “miracle,” a beginning that renews and irreversibly alters the world. Hers is a fragile yet haunting
figuration that stirs recognition of our own vulnerable beginnings and our necessary dependency on others. Placed
alongside the reality of human beginnings, many accounts of political beginnings construed as the actions of male
hordes or contractionalists seems parodic in part because of the massive denial (of “the female”) on which they
depend. A “full experience” of the “capacity” rooted in birth helps us to keep before our mind’s eye the living reality of
singularities, differences, and individualities rather than a human mass as objects of possible control or manipulation.
By offering an alternative genealogy that problemzatizes collective violence and visions of triumph, Arendt devirilizes
discourse, not in favor of feminization (for the feminized and masculinized emerged in tandem and both embody
dangerous distortions), but politicalization, constituting her male and female objects as citizens who share alike the
“faculty of action.” At this juncture, Arendt’s discourse makes contact with that feminism I characterized as a modified
vision of the beautiful soul. Her bracing ideal of the citizen adds political robustness to a feminist picture of women
drawn to action from their sense of being and their epistemic and social location. Arendt’s citizen, for example, may act
from her maternal thinking but not as a mother—an important distinction that could help to chasten sentimentalism or
claims of moral superiority.
But war is the central concern of this essay. Does Arendt’s discourse offer a specifiable orientation toward international
relations? Her discourse shifts the ground on which we stand when we think about states and their relations. We
become skeptical about the forms and the claims of the sovereign state; we deflate fantasies of control inspired by the
reigning teleology of progress; we recognize the (phony) parity painted by a picture or equally “sovereign states” and
are thereby alert to the many forms hegemony can take. Additionally, Arendt grants “forgiveness” a central political role
as the only way human beings have to break remorseless cycles of vengeance. She embraces an “ascesis,” a
refraining or withholding that allows refusal to bring one’s force to bear to surface as a strength not a weakness.
Take the dilemma of the nuclear arms race that seems to have a life and dynamic of its own. From an Arendtian
perspective, we see current arms control efforts for what they are-the arms race under another name negotiated by a
bevy of experts with a vested interest in keeping the race alive so they can "control" it. On the other hand, her
recognition of the limiting conditions internal to the international political order precludes a leap into utopian fantasies
of world order or total disarmament. For neither the arms control option (as currently defined) nor calls for immediate
disarmament are bold-the first because it is a way of doing business as usual; the second because it covertly sustains
business as usual by proclaiming "solutions" that lie outside the reach of possibility. Instead, Arendt's perspective
invites us-as a strong and dominant nation of awesome potential force-to take unilateral initiatives in order to break
symbolically the cycle of vengeance and fear signified by our nuclear arsenals. Just as action from an individual or
group may disrupt the automisms of everyday life, action from a single state may send shock waves that reverberate
throughout the system. Arendt cannot be pegged as either a "systems dominance" nor "sub-systems dominance"
thinker-a form of argumentation with which she has no patience in any case. She recognizes systemic imperatives yet
sees space for potentially effective change from "individual (state) action." The war system is so deeply rooted that to
begin to dismantle it in its current and highly dangerous form requires bold strokes.
At this juncture, intimations of an alternative genealogy emerge. Freeman Dyson suggests the Odyssey or the theme
of homecoming rather than the Iliad or the theme of remorseless force as a dominant ur-political myth if we break the
deadlock of victims versus warriors. Socrates, Jesus of Nazareth, and Nietzsche, in some of his teachings, emerge as
articulators of the prototypical virtues of restraint and refusal to bring all one's power to bear. For it was Nietzsche, from
his disillusionment, who proclaimed the only way out of "armed peace" to be a people, distinguished by their wars and
victories who, from strength, not weakness, "break the sword" thereby giving peace a chance. "Rather perish than hate
and fear," he wrote, "and twice rather perish than make onself hated and feared." 40 Historic feminist thinkers and
movements who rejected politics as force take center stage rather than being relegated to the periphery in this
alternative story.
To take up war-as-discourse compels us to recognize the powerful sway of received narratives and reminds us that the
concepts through which we think about war, peace, and politics get repeated endlessly, shaping debates, constraining
consideration of alternatives, often reassuring us that things cannot really be much different than they are. As we nod
an automatic yes when we hear the truism (though we may despair of the truth it tells) that "there have always been
wars," we acknowledge tacitly that "there have always been war stories," for wars are deeded to us as texts. We
cannot identify "war itself" as an entity apart from a powerful literary tradition that includes poems, epics, myths, official
histories, first-person accounts, as well as the articulated theories I have discussed. War and the discourse of war are
imbricate d, part and parcel of political reality. Contesting the discursive terrain that identifies and gives meaning to
what we take these realities to be does not mean one grants a self-subsisting, unwarranted autonomy to discourse;
rather, it implies a recognition of the ways in which received doctrines, "war stories," may lull our critical faculties to
sleep, blinding us to possibilities that lie within our reach.
ADDITIONALLY, WE MUST ADOPT THE PERSPECTIVE OF UNIVERSAL PARENTS TO ADEQUATELY DEAL
WITH THE NUCLEAR ERA – WE MUST EXTEND THE ETHICS OF CARE TO ALL BEINGS.
MCFAGUE, 1987
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Sallie, Models of God: theology for an ecological, nuclear age, pg 120-122
If we were to see ourselves as universal parents, as profoundly desiring not our own lives to go on forever but the lives
of others to come into being, we would have a model highly appropriate to our time. Schell limits the model to the
human species and to birth (or the simple willing of others into existence); I, on the other hand, would extend it both to
other species and to nurturing activities beyond birth and feeding. Before amplifying these two points, however, I would
stress that the power of the model rests on the base Schell has given it: the will deep within all of us which could be
called the parental instinct, the will not to save ourselves but to bring others into existence. Most broadly, whether or
not one is a biological or adoptive parent, the parental instinct says to others, “It is good that you exist!” even if this
involves a diminishment and, in some cases, the demise of the self. Or to put it a little differently, we realize, if we
contemplate the possible death of our species (or worse still, the extinction of all life), that it is not our own individual
end that is most appalling to us but the death of birth. We all want to be life givers, to pass life on, and when we do we
can face our own deaths more easily. Therefore, to suggest universal parenthood as a model to help bring about
justice through care calls upon our deepest instincts, where life and death mingle and where the preservation of life for
others takes precedence over concern for the self.
Universal parenthood, however, cannot be limited to our species or to birth. To limit it to our species displays the
anthropocentric focus that fails to appreciate the interdependence and interrelatedness of all levels of life. Since
human beings are the only “conscious” parents—that is the only ones who can, both for their own species and as
surrogate parents for other species, will to help birth take place—we have the special responsibility to help administer
the process: to join God the creator-mother in so arranging the cosmic household that the birth and growth of other
species will take place in an ecologically balanced way, both for our own well-being and for the well-being of other
species. We must become the gardeners and caretakers of our Eden, our beautiful, bountiful garden, not taming and
ruling it, let alone despoiling and desecrating it, as we so often do, but being to it as a universal parent, willing the
existence of all species and, as a good householder, ordering the just distribution of the necessities of existence. We
are, of course, speaking here of an attitude, of a role model that, if assumed, can begin to change both how one sees
the world and how one acts in and toward it. If one thought of oneself as parent to the world, that is, if one moved
oneself inside that model and walked around in it, acting the role of parent, what changes might come about in, say,
how one spent one’s time, one’s money, one’s vote? The universalizing of our most basic loves, extending them
beyond the confines of our immediate families and primary communities and even beyond our own species, is, I
believe, the necessary direction in our search for models for behavior in an ecological, nuclear age.
The other direction in which we must universalize parenthood is in extending it beyond birth and an attention to basic
nurture, to an attention to the entire well-being of our successors. As creator, God the mother is concerned not only
with birth and nourishment but also with fulfillment. We have noted that female deities in other religious traditions and
female attributes or personas of God in ours were not limited to bearing and caring for new life but were also pictured
as involved in the fulfillment of life through the ordering of justice, the impartation of wisdom, the invitation to the
oppressed, the transformation of life, and so forth. Parenthood is not limited to birth and nurture but includes all
creative activities supported the next generation—and by implication, the weak and vulnerable as well. This, of course,
once again undercuts the split between nature and history, for in the humans species at least, nurture and fulfillment
involve all ranges of the body, mind, and spirit. All people, therefore, who engage in work, paid or unpaid, that helps to
sustain the present and coming generations are universal parents. The agapic, just love that we have designated as
parental, the love that gives without calculating the return, that wills the existence and fulfillment of other beings—this
love is manifest in ways beyond counting. It is found in the teacher who gives extra time to the slow or gifted students,
in the social worker whose clients are drug-addicted pregnant women, in the librarian who lovingly restores old books,
in the specialist in world population control whose days are spent on planes and in board meetings, in the zoologist
who patiently studies the behavior of the great apes in the wild, in the owner of the local supermarket who employs ex-
juvenile delinquents, in the politician who supports more funds for public education, in the botanist who catalogues new
strains of plants, in rock stars who give their talents to famine relief. All of these are examples of universal parenthood:
the examples are independent both of gender and of biological parenthood and are not limited to our own species. Nor
are they unusual. In fact, much paid work in any society and almost all volunteer work have potential parental
dimensions. It is these dimensions that need to be uncovered and encouraged in order to work within the ethic of God
as mother-creator, the ethic of justice.
Needless to say, individual examples alone will not accomplish revolution. Is it possible to think of governments
modeling themselves as universal parents? The model in most capitalist democracies is a mechanical one, balancing
the rights and responsibilities of various constituencies while focusing on the freedom of the individual. In such a model
the vulnerable and the weak, including children and the natural world, tend to do poorly, since they do not have a voice
strong enough—if they have any voice at all—to sway the balance of power or to protect themselves against rapacious
individualism. Some forms of socialism do approach the parental model more closely, both in understanding the
political order in organic rather than mechanistic terms and in providing better support for the necessities of life to the
young, the sick, and the vulnerable.
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The intention of these remarks on the ethic of God the mother-creator as justice is not, however, to provide the
blueprint for the reconstitution of society but to sketch the change in attitude, the conversion of consciousness, that
could come about were we to begin to live inside the model and allow it to become a lens through which we looked out
on the world, We would no longer see a world we named and ruled or, like the artist God, made: mothers and fathers
to the world do not rule or fashion it. Our positive role in creation is as preservers, those who pass life along and who
care for all forms of life so they may prosper. Our role as preservers is a very high calling, our peculiar calling as
human beings, the calling implied in the model of God as mother.
THE PROBLEM WITH NUCLEAR POLICY IS IT ATTEMPTS TO PRESCRIBE THE CONTENT OF THE FUTURE BY
RESTRICTING HUMAN NATURE TO A SELECT FORM OF VIOLENT RELATIONS. THESE PREDICTIONS
PROCEED FROM A STATE OF HOPELESSNESS THAT MAKES NUCLEAR VIOLENCE A SELF FULFILLING
PROPHECY. INSTEAD, OUR REJECTION OF NUCLEARISM IS EMBODIED IN AN OPEN HOPE FOR THE
FUTURE WHICH DOES NOT SEEK TO PRESCRIBE ITS CONTENT BUT RATHER RECOGNIZES THAT THE
RELATIONSHIPS SURROUNDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR CLOSE THE POSSIBILITY OF HOPE.
NOYALIS, 1989
Walter, Associate Professor and Chairman of Religious Studies at Anna Maria College, Doing the Truth: Peacemaking
as Hopeful Activity, A Shuddering Dawn, pg 163
We now return to the theme of hope and hopelessness to examine how this sheds light on making peace and making
war. As one of the theological virtues, hope proceeds from our rootedness in God. It is nevertheless far from an
optimistic attitude to the future. Such an attitude might say “I am optimistic that there will be no nuclear war. Who
would be so crazy? Besides, God would not allow it.” Or, “Deterrence has worked so far; it will continue to work.” The
optimists have been wrong about every war we have had until now. The trouble with such optimism is that it envisions
the content of the future; it attempts to predict and so does not take into account the freedom of history to move
beyond our conceptualizations.
War-making, including preparing for war, and especially for a protracted nuclear war, involves a similar optimism—that
our technological capacity and penchant for control can account for every future contingency. It, too, tries to predict the
future (as Clarke Chapman clearly demonstrates in Chapter 8 of this book). But war-making also proceeds from
hopelessness. It envisions the future simply by extrapolating from a content currently known. From an understanding
of the past and the present that is taken as the ultimate potential for the future. It assumes that the unreconciled,
unpeaceful world that relies on nuclear weapons is the norm—that conflict is the norm and can be avoided finally only
by the threat of greater conflict. It does not see any deeper grounding for human existence than self-interest defined as
current or expected benefits. To the extent that we see this extrapolation as definitive, there can be no possibility,
newness, or surprise, because the ground of imagination has become closed to ongoing future experience.
The maxim “If you want peace, prepare for war” is thus the maxim of hopelessness, of the failure to imagine an open
future due to conceptual identification of the structure of the future within the events of the past. What we think
becomes the future; our sense of its content precludes experiential awareness of the specific, concrete horizon of our
being. The nuclear vision of the future is thus closed, constricted, profoundly antimetaphorical. (The examples of
nuclear fatalism offered by John McDargh in Chapter 6 of this book testify to this.) If there is any saving grace in
nuclear weapons, it lies in the Bomb’s power to expose this dimension of the war-making mythos. The prospect of the
destruction of the species through war has compelled many people to see war in an entirely new attitude. This now
means to see the hopelessness behind all war, to see how removed war is from the true horizon òf our life.
This is not to say that it is wrong to expect benefits from the future. The problem arises when the content of what is
expected is separated from awareness of human grounding in a nonmanipulable way in the absolute future, the free
future. To oppose nuclear war, on the other hand, is to become aware of this deepest grounding. It is hopeful activity,
even if we sense little basis for optimism in current history. To write on the subject, to speak, to demonstrate, to
engage in civil disobedience are concrete actions geared to change the situation. As such, they themselves point to
that deeper horizon, the grounding in the future. They do not assign the future a specific content but they say that its
reality, its structure as presently experienced, is incompatible with nuclear conceptualization. They are metaphors of
an open future that is known only in exploring its surprising manifestations, in committing ourselves to a practical
value. Working for peace, building a peaceful world, is not mere opposition to nuclear weapons, it is a positive
expression of a specific truth—in Christian terms, the Kingdom of God that is the working out of the deepest truth of
creation. And in experiencing the structure of true peace while attempting to help it blossom, we encounter in the
veiled metaphorical manner of our actions the Ultimate truth itself. As metaphors, these actions are experiences of the
concrete reality of the Ultimate and express its shape, its structure.
Peacemaking, then, reminds us of what war-making forgets, that our constructs of reality are profoundly metaphorical.
The truth of our life is not conceptually known. It is done, lived out. We live out the nonviolent alternative to war,
discerning its shape as we go along. Peacemaking is thus creative, able to compose, to texture and tone, a peaceful
reality because of openness and commitment to the deepest structures of living, of our ultimate future. War-making,
which it its nuclear expression may be the ultimate form of Cartesian dualism, is closed to these structures, denies the
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possibility of such vision, and lives in a conceptualized future of its own making, alienated from the concrete structures
of life. This, it threatens the future of us all.
New 1ac - round 7 @ UNLV -- Sorry that it took so long to get this up all, (james fault) basically same aff minus the
incest metaphor - Lets debate the aff, start writing strategies about disarm!
CONTENTION ONE – MAN I FEEL LIKE A WOMAN
NUCLEAR POLICY IS MAINTAINED THROUGH A STRICT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE EMOTIVE AND THE
RATIONAL, THE ABSTRACT AND THE EMBODIED. THIS SEPARATE ENABLES NUMBED POLICY
CONSTRUCTION THAT MAKES THE ILLUSORY DREAM OF DETERRENCE STILL DESIRABLE IN THE FACE OF
THE INCALCULABLE CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR POLICY ON THE MILLIONS OF “DOWNWINDERS,”
INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS AND MILITARY PERSONNEL INTENTIONALLY IRRADIATED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF OUR NUCLEAR ARSENAL.
COHN & RUDDICK, 2003
Carol and Sara, A Feminist Ethical Perspective on Weapons of Mass Destruction, Boston Consortium on Gender,
Security and Human Rights, Working Paper No. 104, http://genderandsecurity.umb.edu/cohnruddick.pdf
Abstract language and a penchant for distinctions are… development and deployment.
DESIRE FOR TOTAL ANNIHILATION TO ESCAPE THE FLESH OF THIS WORLD VIA NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST.
GRIFFIN, 1984
the simplest physical aspects of a nuclear chain reaction carry… home to ourselves that we can survive.
KOVEL, 1984
Mere survival is not enough… states mean to the world
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ABOLISH THE UNITED STATES NUCLEAR
ARSENAL.
CONTENTION TWO – PEACE AS PRACTICE

UNILATERAL DISARMAMENT IS A NECESSARY BREAK WITH THE HOPELESSNESS THAT SURROUNDS ARMS
CONTROL THOUGH AN AFFIRMATION OF PEACE AS PRACTICE THAT WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM. BY BREAKING THE ATOMIC SWORD, VOTING AFFIRMATIVE DOES NOT ONLY
EMBRACE A NEW POLICY BUT A NEW POLITICAL NARRATIVE OF HOPE BASED ON CONNECTION AND
NATALITY RATHER THAN THE INCESTUOUS NARRATIVE OF SEPARATION AND DEATH.
hopelessness is all around us… that lie within our reach.
THE QUEST FOR PEACE IS A QUESTION OF PRACTICE. THE PROBLEM WITH NUCLEAR POLICY IS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PRESCRIBE THE CONTENT OF THE FUTURE BY RESTRICTING HUMAN NATURE TO A SELECT
FORM OF VIOLENT RELATIONS. THESE PREDICTIONS PROCEED FROM A STATE OF HOPELESSNESS THAT
MAKES SURVIVAL IMPOSSIBLE AND NUCLEAR VIOLENCE INEVITABLE. INSTEAD, OUR REJECTION OF
NUCLEARISM IS EMBODIED IN AN OPEN HOPE FOR THE FUTURE WHICH DOES NOT SEEK TO PRESCRIBE
IT’S CONTENT BUT RATHER RECOGNIZES THAT THE RELATIONSHIPS SURROUNDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
FOR CLOSE THE POSSIBILITY OF HOPE.
NOYALIS, 1989
The trouble with such optimism… future of us all.
UNLV RR - ROUND 4
NIETZSCHE/WAR GOOD/PROGRESS BAD 2AC
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PERMUTATION UNILATERALLY DISARM AS AN ACT OF WAR AGAINST NUCLEAR WEAPONS – THIS

DEVISTATES THEM BECAUSE NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE NOT WEAPONS OF WAR – INFACT THERE USE
WOULD GUARANTEE THE END OF ALL WARS EVER.
CHERNUS, 1985
Ira, War and Myth: "The Show Must Go on," Journal of the American Academy of Religion, Vol. 53, No. 3 (Sep., 1985),
pp. 449-464
War approached as play...
plague us so perilously.
NO HONOR IN NUCLEAR WAR.

AXINN, 1986
Sidney, Honor Patriotism, and Ultimate Loyalty, Nuclear Weapons and the Future of Humanity, pg273
military honor requires that...
of those actions
We should be neither for nor against the State: critiques of totalization open up the possibility of strategically using the
State when necessary whereas totalizing rejection produces oppression.
Soloman 1988 [J. Fisher, Assistant Professor of English as UCLA. Discourse and Reference in the Nuclear Age, pp.
270-271]
we cannot simply...
play as identity.
PEOPLE WHO SAY SUFFERING IS GOOD HATE THE WOMEN.

DONAHUE, JANUARY 1ST 2005
Sean, Beyond the Myth of Ritual Sacrifice, http://www.counterpunch.org/donahue01012005.html
which our own physical sacrifice...
them with moralistic abstractions.
ACTION GOOD -- SAME AS BELOW

SCHELL, SUMMER 2002
Jonathan, A politics of natality, Social Research,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2267/is_2_69/ai_90439541/pg_5/?tag=content;col1
EDELMAN 2AC
IDENTIFYING THE CHILD WITH A REJECTION OF QUEERNESS NECESSARILY REJECTS FEMININITY AND
AFFIRMS THE MASCULINE POLITICS OF THE STATUS QUO – THIS TURNS THE K AND MAKES CASE A DISAD.
FRAIMAN, 2003
Susan, Cool Men and the Second Sex, pg 132-133
The problem with this is...
more familiar than China or Guatemala.
Their psychoanalytic reading of the social body as always-already impervious to real change by queers and other
movements is a reductive falsehood.
John Brenkman, Distinguished Professor of English and Comparative Literature at the CUNY Graduate Center and
Baruch College, 2002, Narrative, Vol. 10, No. 2, p. 176
the political realm—whether viewed...
institutions of compulsory heterosexuality
( ) Political engagement isn’t just queer assimilation – it radically changes the terms of the political itself. The social
order is NOT inevitably exclusive to queers – working through the political process can and does produce not just a
better but a different social order for queers.
Baruch College, 2002, Narrative, Vol. 10, No. 2, p. 188-189
Innovation is a crucial...
within the nonpolitical realm.
() PERM DO BOTH – Despite their polemic against futurism, it doesn’t link to our arguments about the necessity of
attending to the political consequences of our actions. If our counterplan agrees with the need to displace the child as
the center of politics, we don’t link to Edelman’s critique of futurism – we just disagree with their radically negative
solution.
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Baruch College, 2002, Narrative, Vol. 10, No. 2, p. 189-190
claim that this discourse defines...
its representation of the "real" fails
() THE ALTERNATIVE WILL BE ROLLED BACK – If it’s true that the social order inherently represses and expels
queerness, then directly assuming the traits of negativity for which queers are stigmatized literally does nothing to
confront that violence.
R Benjamin Bateman, doctoral candidate in English at the University of Virginia, Spring 2006, The Minnesota Review,
online: http://www.theminnesotareview.org/journal/ns6566/bateman_r_benjamin_ns6566_stf1.shtml, accessed March
15, 2007
if the Real must exist for the Symbolic...
strategy less than appealing
BAURDILLARD/CHALOUPKA NONSENSE K
CHALOUPKA HATES THE NATIVES.
TAYLOR 2007
Chaloupka ...
confronted with a long list of witnesses
Relegating human suffering to the realm of the sign and simulation is just disguised nihilism, which crushes the
possibility for effective politics
Douglas Kellner, Phil. Chair @ UCLA, 1989, Jean Baudrillard, p. 107-8
Baudrillard advocates really...
lead him to embrace nihilism
Baudrillard’s critique is naïve – without a distinction between the reduction of reality to image and a mediation of reality
by image, we allow the worst atrocities of the status quo to continue unabated
James Marsh, Professor of Philosophy, Fordham University, 1995, Critique, Action, and Liberation, pp. 292-293
a reduction of everything to image or...
institutionalizing the ideals of free, full, public expression and discussion
ACTION GOOD
SCHELL, SUMMER 2002
Jonathan, A politics of natality, Social Research,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2267/is_2_69/ai_90439541/pg_5/?tag=content;col1
What Arendt finds in both...
each of us is something new
UNLV RR - ROUND 2
New 1ac Card - Did not read the Galtung evidence
KOVEL, 1984
GIVE THE LAND BACK 2AC

We should employ state sovereignty when the specificity of a situation demands it – the state is essential to combating
the forces of neoliberalism that are impacted by our Balibar evidence. The only way to act on responsibility is to
support the state in particular instances like the plan.
Jacques Derrida, Directeur d’Etudes at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris, and Professor of
Philosophy, French and Comparative Literature at the University of California, Irvine, 2004, For What Tomorrow? A
Dialogue With Elisabeth Roudinesco, p. 91-92
It is necessary to deconstruct...
question the principle of sovereignty.
() CHURCHILL FABRICATES AND PLAGIARIZES EVIDENCE; ALL CLAIMS FROM HIM SHOULD BE SUSPECT.
THE NEW CRITERION, 07 (http://www.newcriterion.com/archives/25/06/a-footnote-on-ward-churchill/)
Much of what Churchill...
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be suspended for a year
() LINKING INDIGENOUS PEOPLES TO LAND INCARCERATES THEM IN A SINGLE SPACE FOR COLONIAL
OBSERVATION – TURNS THE K.
APPADURAI, 1988
Arjun, February Professor at the Department of Anthropology at the University of Pennsylvania, Cultural Anthropology,
Volume 3, No.1, Place and Voice in Anthropological Theory,pp. 36-49, Putting Hierarchy in Its Place, JSTOR
natives are not only persons...
language of incarceration
() GIVING THE LAND BACK WHITE WASHINGS COLONIAL VIOLENCE BY ATTRIBUTING IT TO SOLELY
MATERIAL SOURCES AND OFFERS NO BENEFICIAL STRATEGY FOR THOSE CURRENTLY OPPRESSED TO
FIGHT AGAINST GOVERNMENTAL ABUSE.
BRADFORD, 05
William, Chiricahua Apache and Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, Beyond Reparations:
An American Indian Theory of Justice, 66 Ohio St. L.J. 1
a serious commitment to justice...harmony and peace between peoples
() ALTERNATIVE LEADS TO GENOCIDE AGAINST THE ‘WHITE ELITE’ – HISTORY PROVES.

JONES, 05
Adam, Research Fellow in the Genocide Studies Program at Yale University, Genocide: A Personal History, Sept,
http://www.genocidetext.net/personal_journey.htm
Between 1847 and 1849...would be banished forever
CASE
A2 -- YOU EMPOWER THE STATE/ANTI NUCLEAR NUCLEARISM Y ARGS.
UNILATERAL DISARMAMENT SENDS SHOCKWAVES THROUGH THE GLOBAL STATE SYSTEM – THIS CARD IS
MILES AHEAD OF ANY EVIDENCE THEY READ
KOVEL, 1984
Joel, Against the State of Nuclear Terror, pg 190
GU - ROUND 1 TO QUARTERS (PRETTY SURE THIS IS ALL THE AFF CARDS WE READ AT THE
TOURNAMENT :)
CONTENTION ONE – WARHEADS OF THE FAMILY; OR HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE MY
(STEP)FATHER
UNDER THE GUISE OF PARENTAL OBLIGATION, AMERICAN NUCLEAR POLICY HAS TAKEN A PARTICULARLY
INCESTUOUS TURN. DECADES OF URANIUM MINING AND RADIATION TESTING HAVE VIOLATED MILLIONS
WHO PLACE THEIR TRUST IN THE NUCLEAR FATHER FOR PROTECTION. JUST LIKE EXPERIENCES
DESCRIBED BY VICTIMS OF INCEST, DEVOTION TO THE BOMB AND ITS POLICIES FORCE THE SELF TO
SPLIT FROM THE BODY, WARPING AND PERVERTING IDEAS LIKE SURVIVAL, TRUST AND FAMILY TO MAKE
DAILY VIOLENCE AND PENETRATION NOT ONLY PSYCHOLOGICALLY PALATABLE BUT THE EXPECTED
NORM.
CAPUTI, 1994
Jane. Unthinkable Fathering: Connecting Incest and Nuclearism, Hypatia, Vol. 9, 1994. 21 pgs
the "nuclear father"… has gone before
DESIRE FOR TOTAL ANNIHILATION TO ESCAPE THE FLESH OF THIS WORLD VIA NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST.
GRIFFIN, 1984
the simplest physical aspects… that we can survive
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ABOLISH THE UNITED STATES NUCLEAR
ARSENAL.
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CONTENTION TWO – PEACEMAKING

UNILATERAL DISARMAMENT IS A NECESSARY BREAK WITH THE HOPELESSNESS THAT SURROUNDS ARMS
CONTROL THOUGH AN AFFIRMATION OF PEACE AS PRACTICE THAT WILL REVERBERATE THROUGH THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM. BY BREAKING THE ATOMIC SWORD, VOTING AFFIRMATIVE DOES NOT ONLY
EMBRACE A NEW POLICY BUT A NEW POLITICAL NARRATIVE OF HOPE BASED ON CONNECTION AND
NATALITY RATHER THAN THE INCESTUOUS NARRATIVE OF SEPARATION AND DEATH.
hopelessness is all around us… lie within our reach.
THE QUEST FOR PEACE IS A QUESTION OF PRACTICE. THE PROBLEM WITH NUCLEAR POLICY IS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PRESCRIBE THE CONTENT OF THE FUTURE BY RESTRICTING HUMAN NATURE TO A SELECT
FORM OF VIOLENT RELATIONS. THESE PREDICTIONS PROCEED FROM A STATE OF HOPELESSNESS THAT
MAKES SURVIVAL IMPOSSIBLE AND NUCLEAR VIOLENCE INEVITABLE. INSTEAD, OUR REJECTION OF
NUCLEARISM IS EMBODIED IN AN OPEN HOPE FOR THE FUTURE WHICH DOES NOT SEEK TO PRESCRIBE
IT’S CONTENT BUT RATHER RECOGNIZES THAT THE RELATIONSHIPS SURROUNDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
FOR CLOSE THE POSSIBILITY OF HOPE.
NOYALIS, 1989
The trouble with… the future of us all
THE UNITED STATES MUST ABOLISH ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL – TO ENGAGE IN TREATIES OR TIT FOR TAT
NEGOTIATIONS CONCEDES LEGITIMACY TO NUCLEAR DEVICES THAT MAKES THEIR POSSESSION
POSSIBLE.
GALTUNG, 2003
Johan, Norwegian sociologist and a principal founder of the discipline of Peace and conflict studies, holds more than 7
doctorate degrees, published more than 1000 articles and over 100 books, Towards the Abolition of Nuculear
Weaponry: A Theological Approach, International Symposium for Peace, http://salsa.net/peace/article63.html
The key lies in the word… and similar instruments.
2ac cards
A2 DETERRENCE
DETERRENCE RELIES ON RATIONAL ACTOR THEORY THAT DISREGARDS THE INEVITABILITY OF
MISCOMMUNICATION, SYSTEM MALFUNCTIONS AND CULTURAL DIFFERENCE THAT MAKE ACCIDENTAL OR
PURPOSEFUL USE INEVITABLE.
COHN AND RUDDICK, 2003
Deterrence theory is… or purposive use possible
A2 FRAMEWORK
NARRATIVES K TO POLICY MAKING EDUCATION.
McDONOUGH, 2006
John E., Using and Misusing Anecdote in Policy Making, Narrative Matters, pg 9-12
Why is narrative… why agreement is not possible
A2 WASTE DISPOSAL DA
NON UNIQUE AND NO LINK – 15 YEAR NUCLEAR BACKLOG.
MERCHANT, 09
Brian, The US and Russia Agreed to Disarm Hundreds of Nukes - But Where Will They Go?
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/07/where-us-nuclear-bombs-go.php
2AC K OF PROLIF
YOU ARE A RACIST
COHN AND RUDDICK, 2003
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A2 REDUCE ARSENAL TO 200 CP

THE CP RELIES ON A “SAFE BOMB” FANTASY THAT REPRESSES NUCLEAR SIGNIFICANCE GUARANTEEING
ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH.
CHERNUS, 1991
Ira, Professor of Religious Studies at UC Boulder, Nuclear Madness: on Religion and Psychology in the Nuclear Age, p
92-93
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Idaho State Brantley/Murphy (Critical-Patriarchy) [Juju]
Acheson & Wright, recount a story explaining the problems techno strategic discourse in nuclear weapons –
disarmament has been put on the back burner because masculine assumptions embedded it the following story
examines a male physicist who unlike is colleagues was opposed to allowing for the destruction that nuclear weapons
casued. As he spoke out against them they didn’t talk to him – join us now and lets see the conclusion of the story 08
[Speaker: Ray Acheson, Reaching Critical Will of the Women's International League for Peace andFreedom; Tim
Wright, International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom08/ngostatements/Gender.pdf Gender and Nuclear Disarmament
STPL]
A white male physicist...status is very difficult.
THE DISCOURSE SURROUNDING WMD'S DEVALUES THE FEMININE WHILE LINKING MASCULINITY WITH
VIOLENCE. COHN, HILL AND RUDDICK, '05 (Carol, Felicity and Sara, "The Relevance of Gender for Eliminating
Weapons of Mass Destruction", Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 80, Autumn 2005, The Acronym Institute,
http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd80/80ccfhsr.htm, accessed through Google Scholar, June 11th, 2009)
The impact of ideas...in American politics.
DISARMAMENT BECOMES AN EXPRESSION OF FEMININITY AND WEAKNESS--REVEALING AND
CHALLENGING THE GENDER ASSUMPTIONS BEHIND NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS KEY TO DECONSTRUCTING
THESE INTELLECTUAL AND POLITICAL PROCESSES. SWEDISH PEACE AND ARBITRATION SOCIETY, '08
("Gender and Sex: Learn About Nuclear Weapons", Swedish Physicians Against Nuclear Weapons, accessed through
Google Scholar, June 11th, 2009) Most states want... associated with femininity.
GENDER IS KEY – IT PREVETNS US FROM ABSTRACTING VIOLENCE AND THE HUMAN BODY FROM
ANALYSIS OF WARCOHN, HILL AND RUDDICK, '05 (Carol, Felicity and Sara, "The Relevance of Gender for
Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction", Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 80, Autumn 2005, The Acronym
Institute, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd80/80ccfhsr.htm, accessed through Google Scholar, June 11th, 2009)
We start with...plans and WMD.
Traditional frame of IR fails – challenging masculine assumptions is key to effective change

Ann J. Tickner Gendering World Politics: Issues and Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era Columbia University Press.
Place of Publication: New York. Publication Year: 2001. [page 2]
The title of...that analyzes them.
Current IR has relied too heavily on rationality excluding feminist methodological approaches to IR – understanding
feminist methodologies is key to creating a shift in politics and adopting new effective epistemologies
Place of Publication: New York. Publication Year: 2001. [page 4-5]
These different realities...realities discussed above.
NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT LEGITIMIZES PATRIARCHY BY GENDERING NUCLEAR ISSUES, REINFORCING A

RIGID DICHOTOMY THAT EQUATES VIOLENCE WITH MASCULINITY.
COHN AND RUDDICK '03 ("A Feminist Ethical Perspective on Weapons of Mass Destruction", Boston Consortium on
Gender, Security and Human Rights, Working Paper No. 104, Pg. 14-15, accessed through Google Scholar, June 8th,
2009)
Further, feminists are...and protect against.
THE DISCOURSE SURROUNDING WMD'S DEVALUES THE FEMININE WHILE LINKING MASCULINITY WITH
VIOLENCE.
COHN, HILL AND RUDDICK, '05 (Carol, Felicity and Sara, "The Relevance of Gender for Eliminating Weapons of
Mass Destruction", Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 80, Autumn 2005, The Acronym Institute,
The impact of...in American politics.
NUCLEAR IMAGERY IS PART OF A CONTINUOUSLY ESCALATING COMPULSIVE ADDICTION TO CONFRONT

EXTINCTION: LARGER DOSES OF DESTRUCTION BECOME NECESSARY UNTIL ANYTHING LESS THAN
COMPLETE DESTRUCTION BECOMES A VICTORY FOR HUMANITY.
LAMARRE ’08 (Thomas, “Born of Trauma: Akira and Capitalist Modes of Production”, Positions: East Asia Cultures
Critique, Volume 16, Number 1, accessed through Project Muse,
http://oboler.isu.edu:2110/journals/positions/v016/16.1.lamarre.html, June 28th, 2009)
Images of atomic...vent remains incomprehensible.
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GENDER IS KEY--IDEAS ABOUT GENDER SHAPE POLITICAL DISCOURSE AND INFLUENCE THE WAY PEOPLE
THINK ABOUT BOTH NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND MASCULINITY.
COHN, HILL AND RUDDICK, '05 (Carol, Felicity and Sara, "The Relevance of Gender for Eliminating Weapons of
Mass Destruction", Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 80, Autumn 2005, The Acronym Institute,
The ways in...effective WMD disarmament.
Thus we present the following plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size of its
nuclear weapons arsenal, and/or substantially reduce and restrict the role and/or missions of its nuclear weapons
arsenal.
(Rd 4: We belive the United States fedeal government should disarm.)
DEBATE IS AN EPISTEMIC COMMUNITY. ENGAGING OUR SOCIAL LOCATION FROM WITHIN THIS
COMMUNITY IS KEY TO BREAKING DOWN DOMINANT EPISTEMOLOGIES THAT MASK THE SUFFERING
NUCLEAR WEAPONS INFLICT, NATURALIZING THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT.
COHN AND RUDDICK '03 ("A Feminist Ethical Perspective on Weapons of Mass Destruction", Boston Consortium on
Gender, Security and Human Rights, Working Paper No. 104, Pg. 8-9, accessed through Google Scholar, June 8th,
2009
Both in philosophy...the frame itself.
Taking a feminist epistemology is the most viable solution to creating liberation and breaking away from the social
norms that develop masculine discourse
Place of Publication: New York. Publication Year: 2001. [Page 17] Although all of...of these experiences.
Critical evaluation of social situations through taking a feminist epistemology strengthens objectivity and creates
“reality” that lies in the human condition
Place of Publication: New York. Publication Year: 2001. [Page 17] Similarly, Sandra Harding... the human condition.
UNLV New ending
What does it mean when 30 million people are killed instantly from a nuclear bomb? What about the survivors? The
following quote is the recount from a Hiroshima survivor explaining her experience of being a post nuclear apocalyptic
survivor
Carol Cohn and Sara Ruddick 2003 A Feminist Ethical Perspective on Weapons of Mass Destruction [page 3]
http://www.genderandsecurity.umb.edu/cohnruddick.pdf
ISU 1AC
We start by talking about the expectations that we have as men in the debate community and rather we want to be the
vulnerable and represent the oppostie of the masuline.
We read our same story about the nuclear phyisist.
Then we Read the quote from the Hiroshima survivor.
Then we read the Tickner evi from the original 1AC that talks about standpoint and then we read the gender is key
from Cohn Hill and Ruddick.
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Idaho State Jennings/Johnson (Critical) [DCH}
daho State JJ Aff

Gonzaga Disclosure
The 1ac is a story about Tony walking into a debate round and finding a cube, as he looks into it the cube vibrates and
vascilates and begins to speak to him. Here is a line from the 1ac, "and as my anxiety began to peak a voice spoke
deeply as if through me: I am you, like it or not, you are becoming me… I have been waiting… all summer."
we quote White 2000 (Stephen K.Political theory prof @ Univ of Virginia)Sustaining Affirmation: The Strengths of
Weak Ontology in Political Theory. Princeton University Press, 2000. P. 14-15 Questia.)
The familiar image of the disengaged self implies an agent whose identity is secure......the uncanny not as something
necessarily in need of mastery or moral categorization, but rather as something to be prized as a manifestation of the
“abundance” or “richness of being.”
the cube then reveals itself as a crazy confluence of many topical words, ideas and images, here is a line from the
story, "the closer I look the more it seemed that this cube could not be contained, expanding and contracting, and/or,
and/or, mission/role, seeds, propane, seeds propane, cultivation, not agriculture, thank god, but cultivation, the
complexity of the cube revealed itself, myself, in flash,"
we quote White 2000 (Stephen K. Political theory prof @ Univ of Virginia)Sustaining Affirmation: The Strengths of
Weak Ontology in Political Theory. Princeton University Press, 2000. p. 6-7 Questia.)
The first commonality emerges around the question:...I want to shift the intellectual burden here from a preoccupation
with what is opposed and deconstructed, to an engagement with what must be articulated, cultivated, and affirmed in
its wake.
the cube then shrinks, from the 1ac, "and in seconds I saw the cube again, miniature but still fluctuating in my hand, it
spoke again: does this make you feel better?" Do you like it better when all of this is within your grasp? Don't worry this
doesn't change the fact,… the fact of what? I did not feel better, I felt sick, some deep revulsion, taking me over, “what
are you,” I wheezed through the tortured pains of disgust, I am you whether you like it or not, “but what is that?” I
yelled, all of these things you have seen and understood but none of them alone, “how? Where does that come from?”
Actually it comes from a piece of language, as most things do:
The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal, and/or
substantially reduce and restrict the role and/or missions of its nuclear weapons arsenal."
we quote White 2000 (Stephen K.Political theory prof @ Univ of Virginia)Sustaining Affirmation: The Strengths of
Weak Ontology in Political Theory. Princeton University Press, 2000. p. 14-15 Questia.)
One of the characteristics of a felicitous weak ontology.... A better alternative is to take on the affirmative burden of
large narratives, but in such a way that one's story signals its own contestability.
then the story shifts a bit and tony finds himself at some sort of crazy craps table with strange historical figures and
debate icons. soon it will be tony's turn to throw, from the 1ac, "Prometheus is already throwing, Athena next and then
me, where's the cube? Why won’t it tell me what to do now? Wait! The cube is still in my hand, I can feel it, I open up
my palm and there it was just as it was in the past tense, the cube resting there in its same unstable and miniature
way, buzzing,… but wait-- its two cubes—its… its… a pair of dice, what… I am feeling a cold sweat, oh god I am
gonna be sick, suddenly the voice of the cube is speaking in my head, would you throw me forever and ever eternally,
I shake myself out of my trance, and as I come to, the whole dimension is chanting “its your turn,”"
we quote Hawes 99 (Leonard C, professor in the Department of Communication @ U of Utah)The Dialogics of

Conversation: Power, Control, Vulnerability Communication Theory, Vol. 9, 1999.)
In Ecce Homo, Nietzsche claims that the idea of the eternal return is the highest formula of affirmation...
is an active love of fate that forces self to will whatever happens as the necessary manifestation of chance.
the 1ac ends with tony taking his turn, from the 1ac, "hey, its Mike Baxter Kauf, he’s smiling, “Just throw it tony,” “but
there are a lot of people out there with a lot of different bets,” and MBK just grins and gives a quick chuckle, “don’t
worry I’ll like it,” and at once I understand, not with finality or truth, but with purpose, with contingency and openness,
and I throw,"
we quote Farrar 2000 (Margaret E., Chair of political science @ Augustana, “Health and Beauty in the Body Politic:
Subjectivity and the Urban Space,” Polity volume 33 issue 1, questia)
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These responses occur below the level of discursive consciousness, in what Iris Marion Young refers to as the
subject's sense of ontological integrity...Coherence, unity, and sameness in the representational space of the nation
are achieved only by setting out parameters for the citizen body/body politic and ignoring or displacing elements of the
social body that fall outside of those parameters, by establishing a space for the abject and keeping it at bay.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Same as Gonzaga
GSU Doubles
Aff vs. Emory NS
2AC
Recognizing finitude is necessary to celebrate life.
White 2000, The strengths of weak ontology in political theory, pg. 14-15
“a persistent engagement with one’s finitude” and “noble acceptance of
our own death”
Disarmament is a rouse–the aff just makes power seem more benevolent

and accountable but ignores the way sovereignty makes existential
ontology inevitable. You cannot escape the problems of security
without active interrogations.
Burke 2007, Ontologies of war: violence, existence and reason
“I was motivated to begin the larger project” and “dealing with
conflict and difference”
We cannot win the struggle against violence with logical argument

alone–we must undermine the dominant stories of warfare by creating
our own counterstories every place at every time.
Chernus 2003,
“In the long run, the most important” and “living rooms all over the country”
Weak ontologies are a process of critiquing and reflecting—we cannot

just declare out ontologies as acceptable truths.
White 2000 “
“weak ontologies respond to two pressing” and “enacted rather than
just announced”
Weak ontologies configure the ways which humans are constituted by the
indeterminate, such as language and finitude.
White 2000 “
“When I speak of “existential realities”” and “attentive to vivifying
our finitude”
Founding community based on a linguistic commonality or a set of

appropreate agreements destroys difference, their frame work requires
homogeneity and destruction of all perspectives that are deemed
outside of it
Secomb 2000, Fractured community, Hypatia volume 15, pp 138-139
“This reformulated universalist model of community” and “that assume
homogeneity and transparency”
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John Carroll Brossmann/Miranda (Critical-Heidegger) [Arif]
GSU Aff Disclosure

For 60 years the United States has been using its nuclear arsenal to further its sphere of influence, dominate the world
and maintain the global arrangement.
Gerson ‘7 (Dr. Joseph Gerson is Director of Programs of the American Friends Service Committee in New England)
Empire and the Bomb: How the U.S. Uses Nuclear Weapons to Dominate the World, pg 12 2007.
It is widely understood that the AND for the twenty-first century.”
The US’ nuclear arsenal is used as a means of securing world order and access to commodity resources.
Gerson ‘7 (Dr. Joseph Gerson is Director of Programs of the American Friends Service Committee in New England)
Empire and the Bomb: How the U.S. Uses Nuclear Weapons to Dominate the World, pg. 207-9 2007.
On the night of January 17, 1991, … nations from joining the nuclear club.
This world order thinking cannot avoid the trap of subjectivism, which depends on an ontological commitment to
human dominion over the globe, which necessarily includes valuation and calculation.
Swazo 2(Norman K. Swazo, Professor of Philosophy and Chair of the Department of Philosophy and Humanities at the
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Crisis Theory and World Order: Heideggerian Reflections pgs. 119-20) 2002
Political theory and practice are ever … unavoidably remains steeped in subjectivism.
Power wars and ecocide are inevitable when humans see themselves as the center of a world of resources; ontologies
which enframe make all other impacts inevitable.
Zimmerman ’81 (Michael E. Zimmerman [prof of Philosophy @ Tulane U]; Eclipse of the Self: The Development of
Heidegger’s Concept of Authenticity, pp. 220-224)
In 1951, Heidegger noted that Spengler’s … a capitalist gone mad, the capitalist is a rational miser.”
The focus on achieving and preserving world order depends on a system of understanding reality necessarily couched
in our technological horizons. The pervasiveness of this technological understanding is what’s known as “enframing.”
This organizes the way the world is understood and reproduces its technocratic politics.
Swazo 2(Norman K. Swazo, Professor of Philosophy and Chair of the Department of Philosophy and Humanities at the
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Crisis Theory and World Order: Heideggerian Reflections pgs. 125-6) 2002
Today, we noted, philosophy finds … is not a course either inevitable or unalterable.
By casting all other being as Standing Reserve, enframing predetermines our relationship to all things. This ontological
destruction is more dangerous than the nuclear annihilation that inevitably follows.
John Caputo, Demythologizing Heidegger, 1993 p. 136-41
The essence of technology is nothing …, profound, essential, authentic, ontological destruction.
Ontologies that seek long-term certainty and sustainability relies on a larger framework of calculation and technology
which renders the all beings standing reserve.
Elden 6 (Stuart Elden [reader in Political Geography @ the U of Durham]; Speaking Against Number: Heidegger,
Language, and the Politics of Calculation, pp. 154-157) 2006
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One of the most extensive discussions … understanding some of their more problematic aims.
Security challenges such as terrorism are a confirmation of technological enframing and standing reserve.
Mitchell 5 [Andrew J. Mitchell, Post-Doctoral Fellow in the Humanities at Stanford University, "Heidegger and
Terrorism," Research in Phenomenology, Volume 35, Number 1, 2005 , pp. 181-218]
Heideggerian thinking is a thinking that … too obstinately squelch them.
It is in that context that we’re resolved:
The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal, and/or
substantially reduce and restrict the role and/or missions of its nuclear weapons arsenal.
Our resolve puts us outside of the traditional notions of willful action, but recalls that power nonetheless. Resoluteness
is the ultimate act of the authentic being; the beginning of a move towards releasement and openness.
Pezze, '6 (Barbara Dalle), "Heidegger on Gelassenheit," Minerva - Internet Journal of Philosophy 10 (2006): 94-122
http://www.mic.ul.ie/stephen/vol10/Heidegger.pdf (accessed 2/12/09)
Let us pause for a moment to … open towards the openness itself.
Our subjectivist posture is that of resoluteness- our political advocacy doesn’t spring from a will to act, such as
decisionism, but rather is a steadfastness opposed to continued technological enframing of being
Odeysseos 07 (Louiza, Senior Lecturer in Internation Relations at the University of Sussex) The Subject of
Coexistence: Otherness in International Relations (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2007 pp. 108)
What is of concern is whether the … by the optics of coexistence in chapter 3.
This resolving towards releasement is necessary to break from the domination of self-will.
Zimmerman 81 (Michael E. Zimmerman [prof of Philosophy @ Tulane U]; Eclipse of the Self: The Development of
Heidegger’s Concept of Authenticity, pp. 245-248)
Under the domination of egoism … beyond the personal God of Creation.
We create space for meditative thought where calculative/technological thought currently dominates. This pursuit of
ontological questioning is interrupts the closing off of technological enframement.
Korous 97 (JD, Emory BA Philosophy, Become What you Are) 1997 22-25
The thought that inhabits critique …potential energy waiting to be unleashed.
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Kansas State Denney/Reynolds (Critical-Genealogy)

[Nick/Heather]
KSU DR is running a genealogy of Los Alamos.
We begin with a look at the start of the nuclear age:

Masco 2008 (Joseph, The Nuclear Borderlands: The Manhattan Project in Post-Cold War New Mexico, pg 1)
"The nuclear age began in earnest...yet lasting, achievements."
We start at a beginning - the origins of the nuclear complex in America

But even in periods ...impacted everyday lives"
As we delve deeper, we uncover the start of the Manhattan Project in New Mexico,
When the Manhattan Project arrived ... progression into the nuclear age.
genealogical approach reveals the micropolitical

May 95 (Todd, Between genealogy and Epistemology, pg 100)
genealogies =/= histories

Colwell 97 (http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/theory_and_event/v001/1.2colwell.html, Deleuze and Foucault: Series, Event,
Genealogy, C)
|| back to los alamos - masco ||
|| we start at a beginning - origins of nuclear complex in america masco ||
|| uncover start of manhattan project - masco ||
|| important to understand locality of the bomb - masco ||
|| genealogial appoarch allows to rediscover history of nuclear weapons -- may ||
|| see that our fetish dooms us to extinction that we try to avoid - masco 2008 ||
|| open up to the micropolitical -- may ||
|| alternate disco on weapons - masco ||
|| operation crossroads masco 2008 ||
|| what a genealogy is - colwell ||
|| understand importance in nuclear age masco 2008 ||
DR AFF from EMPORIA
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The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size, role, and missions of its nuclear weapons
arsenal by disarming all USFG owned or operated nuclear weapons.
the plan is enacted as a form of buddhist meditation known as contemplative action
To act in a meditative mode called contemplative action means that it is not the results of the action that matters it is
the process in which we approach the action that can provide us with human liberation by the simple act of acting
Hahito explains in 2005
Ruhen L. F. Hahito, resident teacher at Maria Kannon Zen Center in Dallas, Texas and teacher at Perkins School of
Theology, Southern Methodist University. Hooked; Buddhist Writings on Greed, Desire, and the Urge to Consume.
edited by Stephanie Kaza. 2005 p. 42-43
"Let me illustrate" ... "fullness of being."
We must disarm our inner selves, laying down these weapons and embracing peace
Dalai Lama ‘98
"The Need for Compassion in Society: The Case of Tibet," The Art of Peace: Nobel Peace Laureates Discuss Human
Rights, Conflict and Reconciliation, ed. by Jeffrey Hopkins – transcript of a speech by the Dalai Lama, 1998
http://www.snowlionpub.com/pages/N56_3.html
"So, tranquillity or peace" ... "that is external disarmament."
Current negative karma can be reshaped through our meditative approach to the topic and its resulting understanding
of interdependency, this reshaping is an establishment of a positive karma which becomes the basis for future
approaches to the world
Jones explains in 2003
Ken Jones, lifelong activist and a Zen practitioner for over 30 years and founding member of the UK Network of
Engaged Buddhist. The New Social Face of Buddhism; a Call to action. 2003 p 25-26
"Some understanding of karma" ... "of our lives."
The current epistemological approach to the world is rooted in scientific knowledge that demands a dualistic
understanding of the world—this negates our ability to comprehend the interdependency that exists
Hahito explains again
edited by Stephanie Kaza. 2005 p.44-45
"The realization that" ... "whole of nature in its beauty."
It is through our lack of understanding interdependency that our ego created selves emerge, these ego selves are the
root why we suffer in the first place, understanding interdependency is critical to promote human liberation
Brown explains in 1995
Michael Brown, Department of Philosophy of Saint Mary's University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Degree of Master of Arts Saint Mary's Univers:ty, Halifax, Nova Scotia. THE MYTH OF ABSURDITY: ACRITICAL
EXAMINATION OF ALBERT CAMUS'THE MYTH OF SISYPHUS FROM A BUDDHIST PERSPECTIVE, A Thesis for
Masters of Arts at Saint Mary’s University, Halifax, Nova Scotia. April 1995 pg 51
"Because the Buddha's experience" ... "the Cessation of Suffering."
Through our understanding of interdependency and our radical embracement of the way the world is now through our
contemplative action affirms one’s ability to achieve human liberation because of the new relationship established with
the inevitable suffering that our life will incur which is the most important thing, even more important than preventing
nuclear war
Jones again explains
Ken Jones, lifelong activist and a Zen practitioner for over 30 years and founding member of the UK Network of
Engaged Buddhist. The New Social Face of Buddhism; a Call to action. 2003 p 39-41
"1n 1859, in the Preface to his Critique" ... "comprehensible -and liberative."
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This is not to say that we can solve all of the worlds suffering, we acknowledge that suffering is an inevitable part of
life, but through understanding our interdependency and accepting the way the world is allows us to reform the
relationship we have to that suffering
Bortholin explains 2005
Matthew Bortholin, Huge Star Wars nerd and ordained member of Thich Nhat Hanh’s Buddhist community, and lived in
Buddhist monasteries. The Dharma of Star Wars. 2005 p. 20-23
"Recognizing that suffering is" ... "time to carefully examine it."
The quest for knowledge only ensure conflict and environmental destruction as knowledge can’t be used correctly
because of the dualistic understanding of the world
Hahito ‘05
edited by Stephanie Kaza. 2005 p. 38-39
"A second area of craving is" ... "my own happiness."
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Kansas State Farmer/Funcheon (Critical-Poesis) [Logan]
Gonzaga Intel
Gonzaga Round 1
Poem – Suheir Hammad’s “In America”
From this cadence we find a motivation to action and a need to be, to live in and to start the change. But this is not
action, as we may know it, we do not call for the US off the Rock nor do we foresee a world free of Western techne.
Rather, we see it fit to re-evaluate history so as to better understand the meaning of our modern age. We are the
containers of infinite potentiality and the choices we make spill fourth and construct the world in which we dwell.
“At the beginning of this cycle … waiting to hear... waiting to hear... - “North American Indian Prophecies “Talk Given
by Lee Brown 1986 Continental Indigenous Council http://www.ausbcomp.com/redman/hopi_prophecy.htm
The point of or historical investigation has not been to defame or discredit any one group nor to point fingers at any
particular person or act. The world is continuing on exactly as it was meant to for us at this point in time, for this
moment as was said is important and special. It is a great honor to be here now at this point in the storm. We have
reached this point of crisis in the modern age precisely because we have always been destined to meet this crossroad
A bold vision of what it means to be in the world was delivered to the United Nations by Leon Shenandoah of the
Onondaga people …
“We were instructed to carry … one body, one heart and one mind for peace.” - Address to the General Assembly of
the United NationsDelivered October 25, 1985 by Leon Shenandoah, Tadodaho, Haudenosaunee
http://www.dreamscape.com/morgana/atlas.htm
The time has come to change the way we listen to shift our understanding to a spiritually balanced perspective. The
time has come to listens to the keepers of the Eastern door, to stop shutting out prophecy based on scientific or
religious bias. We finally listen to the words of Ira Kennedy a Cherokee activist as he explains the meaning and
importance of prophesy in the modern age:
“Written in the 1970s, … threshold into a new earth.” - Ira Kenedy 1999
http://www.texfiles.com/features/prophecies.htm “American Indian Prophecies: A Brief History of the Future of
America”
Missions Aff
We begin with the etymology of the word mission:

http://www.myetymology.com/english/mission.html
http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=mission
Kinney 2000 (Katherine, Friendly Fire: American Images of the Vietnam War, p. 54-55)
It is clear from the etymology of the word mission that it is a statement of purpose that pertains to something ‘out
there.’ This provides us with a clear problematic when considering the relevance to this year’s resolution and the use
of the word ‘mission’ in reference to the United States nuclear arsenal. In light of this history we are compelled to ask a
very fundamental question; what is the USFG’s mission in regard to nuclear weapons? And more important and
perhaps disturbing, what does using the word mission imprint on the psyche of those with their hands on the levers of
power?
The Department of Defense defines the term mission as:
mission
Definitions:
(DOD) 1. The task, together with the purpose, that clearly indicates the action to be taken and the reason therefore.
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/doddict/data/m/5569.html
To give this definition some context we will quote at length from a 2008 report, from the influential Center for
International and Strategic Studies, entitled “The Department of Defense and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st Century”:
The United States, of course […]nuclear deterrent failed.
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Clark A. Murdock, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080305-murdock-nuclearmission.pdf
The United States federal government should substantially reduce and restrict the missions of nuclear arsenal.
Our call to end mission is not a political action, it is a value statement in favor in evaluating the question of the role of
missions in the 1AC.
Spanos in 2000 (William, Americas Shadow, 20-23)
Spanos in 1996 (“Culture and Colonization: The Imperial Imperatives of the Centered Circle”, William V. Spanos,
boundary 2, Vol. 23, No. 1., Spring, 1996)
Our thinking in debate is NOT an ahistorical fact, nor is it an unseen occurrence. Debate societies do instill a
pedagogical method and are laboratories for thinking. The casual promotion of abhorrent argumentation and the
reliance on normative political assumptions only perpetuate the structures of American Imperialist exceptionalism. The
purpose of our scholarship is to call into question the way we go about making assumptions about the ends of our
actions. This methodological questioning is more important than the immediate political consequences of our
arguments. The affirmative plan does not ‘pass’ it is not enacted in congress, but it fundamentally affairs the resolution
as a statement that call us to question the role of missions in current government structures. This shift is crucial to
making debate conscious and to changing the war hungry structure of politics as usual. In a correspondence with Joe
Miller about the American Debate circuit, Spanos lays out exactly the dangers of mission-centric and metaphysically
driven thought and the stakes of changing debate itself…
Stenstad 2006 (Gail, professor in the Department of Philosophy and Humanities at East Tennessee State University,
associate editor of Heidegger Studies, and a member of the board of directors of the International Association for
Environmental Philosophy. “Transformations Thinking After Heidegger” University of Wisconsin Press. Pages )
Recalling the former meanings of words and performing etymology opens space for new meaning. Additionally, it
creates a context for the ‘how we got here’ of the word. This fundamental interrogation is essential if we are
reconceptualize our current place in the world. These meditations are not empty questions, nor calls for
resignifications, rather it part of a task of remaining open ot the possibilities of the future that allow us to escape the
violent conceptualization of static interpretations. Gail Stenstead explains …
Stenstad 2006 (Gail, professor in the Department of Philosophy and Humanities at East Tennessee State University,
associate editor of Heidegger Studies, and a member of the board of directors of the International Association for
Environmental Philosophy. “Transformations Thinking After Heidegger” University of Wisconsin Press. Pages )
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Kansas State Hallinan/Woods (Critical-Kato) [Arif]
We do not read the 1ac in the usual tag-cite-card fashion.

We instead read in block-like, paragraph format. However we read the following ev:
Nuclear Fathering:
(Jane Caputi, 1994, Hypatia 9.n2 (Spring 1994): pp102(21). )
“In truth, the bomb … national vernacular by 1947.”
A. Definition: nuclear posturing is tantamount to positioning within the nuclear family, the warhead as the father of the
world
Caputi in 94
“In his astute study …father of America's nuclear navy."”
Kato discusses and Jane Caputi reiterates the annihilation of the spirit of being that is NOT discussed in the realm of
nuclear annihilation talks, Mutually Assured Destruction, the Bay of Pigs incident etc.
but rather in the heinous previous and currently ongoing genocide of indigenous cultures, not only within a
Superpower’s own boundaries, but outside of playground too.
Following is a story of Bikini Atoll in Micronesia:

The story of Rongelap, effects of radiation...
Caputi
“Within twenty-four hours…are children under five.”
And we reference Cuomo – War as an Event.
Our argument: moments of centering (we cite the plan, the nuclear phallus, nuclear weapons) cause a hero worship. If
we choose not to engage in hero worship we are cast out and removed from dominant discourse. This is not only
politically asphyxiating but is the reason why patriarchy, hierarchical value structures and ontological violence occurs.
Blake and I are happy to field any questions you have about the 1ac/citations. We can be reached at our team account
: ksuhwdebate@gmail.com
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Kentucky Gautam/Gentile (Critical-Disarm) [Daryl]
Kentucky GG
GSU Aff Disclosure
Contention One: Same As It Ever Was….

The Nuclear Weapons Topic is okay but I liked it much better when it was called the Mid-East Topic….or the China
topic….or the Courts topic…or the Ag topic….
Okay that’s a lie, no one liked the Ag topic….but when are we are not debating about nuclear weapons -- or more
specifically nuclear wars – and the chance they will bring about human or even planetary extinction? In a very real
sense policy debate has become exclusively nuclear-orientated – every issue of public policy viewed through the lens
of how it relates to the always already imminent (and, yet, somehow unique) nuclear apocalypse. We may be using all
this nuclear jibber-jabber to deal with our collective fear of mortality, but it’s more than that. After September 11th, an
escalation in the discourse of nuclear terror went orbital – the threat of superpower war and nuclear proliferation was
magnified by the fear of a terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons – while at the same time the nuclear weapons
complex wants to normalize or make the existence of this weapons a banality of life – this discursive tension is an
effective strategy to maintain the relevance of nuclear weapons in current national security policies
Masco 06 (Joseph, Assistant Professor of Anthropology @ University of Chicago, Nuclear Borderlands: The
Manhattan Project in Post-Cold War New Mexico, pg. 329-331)
This is not just a scare tactic and these nuclear weapons are do not exist in a vacuum – we participate in an activity
that rewards those with the biggest impacts – we fetishize body counts and collect nuclear war scenarios from
policymakers so that one day we might be successful enough become part of the nuclear glitterati and get our CSIS
internship…
But our sub-culture is not alone - we are merely a microcosm. We live a culture that preserves nuclear weapons as an
essential part of its heritage – the bomb is a organizing principal in 21stAmerican life
This fetishizing of the bomb through radioactive nation-building has its costs – for the debate community, we obfuscate
the central questions of each topic – whether we should have agricultural subsides is decided not by questions of
economics or food security in themselves but only expressed as a function of how many nuclear wars they access.
Many of us have spent most of the summer teaching high school students not about the chronic problem of poverty
and homelessness in the US but how the states counterplan and politics will peel off those issues so we can focus
clearly on the impact calculus. Just as we ignore the in-depth debates about these (quote-unquote) Real World issues
because of the looming threat of war, the nuclear weapons complex uses the threat of impending war to silence
opposition in the public sphere to nuclear weapons production and creates them as objects of banality to make
invisible the systemic damage the nuclear weapons complex does on a daily basis in the United States.
Ultimately, it is a question of nuclear citizenship – of those who are allowed to speak about and “know” nuclear
weapons – to produce knowledge about nuclear weapons and nuclear policy - and the marginalization of groups who
are most directly affected by the nuclear economy: those who experience the environmental consequences of the
ongoing Manhattan Project. Closing off who is authorized to speak in the debate over nuclear weapons policy
promotes and polices a norm of secrecy that forecloses any meaningful way to democratically engage nuclear
weapons
The screening out of marginalized nuclear experience is prime example of a disinterested knowledge of the Other that
is the enabling mechanism for the destruction of that alterity. All quote unquote pragmatic nuclear solutions attempt to
fill in the blind spots in our map of all human interaction ensures that we can only see these marginalized voices as the
targets of the bomb
Rey Chow, Humanities and Modern Culture & Media Studies at Brown University, 2006 (The Age of the World Target:
Self-Referentiality in War, Theory, and Comparative Work, 40-1)
Contention Two: Time Isn’t After Us
The 1AC is an act of resistance against limiting nuclear politics exclusively to the realm of international relations –
studying the effects of the bomb on everyday national life is necessary to expose the normalizing effects of the Bomb
and highlights the diverse experiences of nuclear citizens that challenge notions of a stable and all-encompassing
national security strategy.
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To put it another way, we must interrogate the repressed spaces of the nuclear project. This allows us to fully examine
the local effects of nuclear weapons complex and fundamentally rewrite the story of the nuclear age to include those
that have been displaced to margins of nuclear history.
Engagement with the symbolic elements of the Bomb is crucial – yes the genie is out of the bottle but that doesn’t
mean that the genie has control over the production of nuclear truth – judges should be provided with a package of
strategies to intervene in the apolitical construction of agency that current constraints on nuclear citizenship engender.
Chaloupka 92 (William, Professor of Political Science @ Colorado State, Knowing Nukes: The Politics and Culture of
the Atom, pg. 137-138)
And voting affirmative is critically to reorienting the scope of the nuclear weapons debate within our own community –
we can choose to view the question of nuclear weapons from a vantage point of nuclear freemasonary and trust in
their rituals, expert knowledge and strict secrecy – or we can break with the past and recognize our mutual interest
with downwinder communities – the collection of groups that live in fallout zone of ever expanding nuclear economy.
Because of Policy Debate’s unique position in relation to the actual decision-makers of real world, policy engagements
like the 1AC are a VITAL avenue of communication between those future policymakers and the public that offers the
possibility of a more genuine democratic engagement.
Kinsella and Mullen 07 (William J., Associate Professor of Communication @ North Carolina State University and Jay,
Professor of History @ South Oregon University, “Becoming Hanford Downwinders: Producing Community and
Challenging Discursive Containment,” Nuclear Legacies: Communication, Controversy, and the US Nuclear Weapons
Complex, ed. Taylor, Kinsella, Depoe, and Metzler, pg. 99-101)
While there will always be shortcomings within any political system, the best thing that democracy can do is constantly
re-imagine itself to be more inclusive of new communities and dissenters – nuclear criticism provides a strategy to
provide the necessary pre-conditions for an unrelenting democratic engagement
Peterson 07 (Tarla Rai., Boone and Crockett Chair of Wildlife and Conservation Policy @ Texas A&M University,
“Response: Nuclear Legacies and Opportunities for Politically and Ethically Engaged Communication Scholarship,”
Nuclear Legacies: Communication, Controversy, and the US Nuclear Weapons Complex, ed. Taylor, Kinsella, Depoe,
and Metzler, pg. 252-253)
Finally, whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, we are all implicated in the violence perpetuated by the nuclear
weapons complex. Instead of giving into the ultimately hollow impulse to “change the world,” you should use the ballot
as a means of initiating a change in yourself. Only by centering our interrogations at the level of our lived experience
can we make possible modes of relating to each other which do not fall back into the pattern of violent ordering.
Jayan Nayar, Law—University of Warwick, 1999 (“SYMPOSIUM: RE-FRAMING INTERNATIONAL LAW FOR THE
21ST CENTURY: Orders of Inhumanity ,” 9 Transnat'l L. & Contemp. Probs. 599)
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Macalester Chen/Copeland (Critical-Zizek) [DCH]
Team: Aff v. Wichita BR

RD. 1 UNI
JUDGE: Max Archer
Plan text:
The United States Federal Government Should Reduce the Size of Its Nuclear Weapons Arsenal By Immediately and
Permanently Disarming Its Nuclear Weapons and Banning the Use of Nuclear Weapons.
1ac cites:
Observation 1 is Weapons:
Despite Obama’s Call—The Path to Disarmament Will be Thwarted By the Nuclear Establishment’s Resistance
Ron Rosenbaum, Freelance Author, “Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama's Dream of Zero?” Slate.com, August 21st,
2009 (http://www.slate.com/id/2225817/)
Obama put Zero on the map at...managers of the path to Zero.
The Fear of the Enemy Which Motivates the American Nuclear Option is the Same as the Neurotic Protection of Terry
Shciavo—We Focus on the Risk of the Massive Strike Despite the Danger of the Millions of Minute Acts of Violence
Everyday—The Result is a Desire for a Nation that Lives Up to Our Impossible Standards Or Immediately Becomes
Our Enemy
Slavoj Zizek, “Biopolitics: Between Terri Schiavo and Guantanamo ,” Artforum, December 2006
(http://www.lacan.com/zizartforum1205.htm)
In March 2005, the US ... desire for conquests." __3__

This Fantasy of Security is the Basis of All Violence—The Inevitable Failure of the Other To Live Up to Our Standards
Justifies Its Destruction
Slavoj Zizek, “Ideology between Fiction and Fantasy,” Cardozo Law Review, 1995, p. lexis
Our argument can be briefly summarized ...acquired by the remainder...
Observation 2 is Deterrence:
We Use and Target Weapons as an Attempt to Secure a National Identity—Our Justifications of Deterrence and
National Security Serve to Cover the Lack in Desire
Michael Shapiro, Prof of Poli Sci at University of Hawaii, “That obscure object of violence: Logistics and Desire in the
Gulf War ,” The Political Subject of Violence, 1993 (Google Books)
Ultimately, the imposition of meaning ...an effective and virile male entity.
The Fear of Failed Deterrence is Precisely the Wrong Solution—the Ultimate Example of Nuclear Détente Proves that
it is the Refusal to Acknowledge the Message of Deterrence that Solves
Slavoj Zizek, “A Letter Which Did Not Reach its Destination..........(and thereby saved the world),” Lacan.com, 2007
(http://www.lacan.com/zizdidnot.htm)
Kennedy's stroke of genius ...Soviet missiles from Cuba.)
The Mentality of Deterrence and the Immanence of Violence—We Must Threaten Apocalypse to Avoid Apocalypse—
Ensures Destruction—We Must Intervene Into the Ideology of War to Solve
Mark B. Borg, Jr, practicing psychoanalyst and community/organizational consultant, “Psychoanalytic Pure War:
Interactions with the Post-Apocalyptic Unconscious,”Journal for the Psychoanalysis of Culture and Society, Spring
2003 (Project Muse)
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Paul Virilio and Sylvere Lotringer’s concept o... social, and cultural death.
Nuclear Weapons and the Language and Logic of Deterrence Encourages Rivalry and Violence—Removing Nuclear
Weapons Presents Us With the Opportunity to Intervene Into the Dialogue Responsible for Enmity Itself
Ian Whitehouse, Prof of English at Vancouver Island University, “Nukespeak: Review,” Textual Practice, Winter, 1987
(Google Books)
A striking parallel ...with alternative views.
Don’t Trust the Negative Impact Comparisons—Our Primary Mission Must Be a Confrontation With Desire—Focusing
on Utilitarian Impact Calculations Can Only Lead Us to Ignore the Primacy of these Issues and Cause the Impacts You
Aim To Avoid
Rolando Gaete, “ARTICLE: Law & The Sacred: Desecration, Law and Evil,” Law/Text/Culture, 2000, p. lexis
This is the terror that Burke wrote about, "...return as the repressed" (La Capra 1992: 126).
The Affirmative is an Act of Ethical Responsibility—Rather than Deferring the Question of Duty We Must Universally
Assume Our Actions and the Basis For Those Actions
Slavoj Zizek, Robespierre or the "Divine Violence" of Terror, Lacan.com, 2007 (http://www.lacan.com/zizrobes.htm)
We can see now why Lacan's motto ...what my duty is.
Nuclear Weapons are The Physical Component of the Textual Fantasy that is Nuclear Warfare—Telling the Stories of
Deterrence, Speaking the Potential of Nuclear War is Precisely What Realizes this Impossible Violence
Jacques Derrida, Philosopher Extraordinaire, “No Apocalypse, Not Now (Full Speed Ahead, Seven Missiles, Seven
Missives), DIACRITICS, v. 14 n. 2, Summer 1984, p. 23-24.
Third reason. In our techno-scientifico...a grand premiere appearance.
RD. 2 UNI
AFF.vs. WSU BR
2ac tricks, Add-ons:
Answers to off-case args:
1ar strategy notes:
2ar strategy notes:

none
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Macalester (Freeman/Indarte) (Critical-Zizek) [DCH]
Plan text:
1ac cites:
Observation 1 is Weapons:
Despite Obama’s Call—The Path to Disarmament Will be Thwarted By the Nuclear Establishment’s Resistance
Ron Rosenbaum, Freelance Author, “Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama's Dream of Zero?” Slate.com, August 21st,
2009 (http://www.slate.com/id/2225817/)
Obama put Zero on the map at...managers of the path to Zero.
The Fear of the Enemy Which Motivates the American Nuclear Option is the Same as the Neurotic Protection of Terry
Shciavo—We Focus on the Risk of the Massive Strike Despite the Danger of the Millions of Minute Acts of Violence
Everyday—The Result is a Desire for a Nation that Lives Up to Our Impossible Standards Or Immediately Becomes
Our Enemy
Slavoj Zizek, “Biopolitics: Between Terri Schiavo and Guantanamo ,” Artforum, December 2006
(http://www.lacan.com/zizartforum1205.htm)
In March 2005, the US ... desire for conquests." __3__

This Fantasy of Security is the Basis of All Violence—The Inevitable Failure of the Other To Live Up to Our Standards
Justifies Its Destruction
Slavoj Zizek, “Ideology between Fiction and Fantasy,” Cardozo Law Review, 1995, p. lexis
Our argument can be briefly summarized ...acquired by the remainder...
Observation 2 is Deterrence:
We Use and Target Weapons as an Attempt to Secure a National Identity—Our Justifications of Deterrence and
National Security Serve to Cover the Lack in Desire
Michael Shapiro, Prof of Poli Sci at University of Hawaii, “That obscure object of violence: Logistics and Desire in the
Gulf War ,” The Political Subject of Violence, 1993 (Google Books)
Ultimately, the imposition of meaning ...an effective and virile male entity.
The Fear of Failed Deterrence is Precisely the Wrong Solution—the Ultimate Example of Nuclear Détente Proves that
it is the Refusal to Acknowledge the Message of Deterrence that Solves
Slavoj Zizek, “A Letter Which Did Not Reach its Destination..........(and thereby saved the world),” Lacan.com, 2007
(http://www.lacan.com/zizdidnot.htm)
Kennedy's stroke of genius ...Soviet missiles from Cuba.)
The Mentality of Deterrence and the Immanence of Violence—We Must Threaten Apocalypse to Avoid Apocalypse—
Ensures Destruction—We Must Intervene Into the Ideology of War to Solve
Mark B. Borg, Jr, practicing psychoanalyst and community/organizational consultant, “Psychoanalytic Pure War:
Interactions with the Post-Apocalyptic Unconscious,”Journal for the Psychoanalysis of Culture and Society, Spring
2003 (Project Muse)
Paul Virilio and Sylvere Lotringer’s concept o... social, and cultural death.
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Nuclear Weapons and the Language and Logic of Deterrence Encourages Rivalry and Violence—Removing Nuclear
Weapons Presents Us With the Opportunity to Intervene Into the Dialogue Responsible for Enmity Itself
Ian Whitehouse, Prof of English at Vancouver Island University, “Nukespeak: Review,” Textual Practice, Winter, 1987
(Google Books)
A striking parallel ...with alternative views.
Don’t Trust the Negative Impact Comparisons—Our Primary Mission Must Be a Confrontation With Desire—Focusing
on Utilitarian Impact Calculations Can Only Lead Us to Ignore the Primacy of these Issues and Cause the Impacts You
Aim To Avoid
Rolando Gaete, “ARTICLE: Law & The Sacred: Desecration, Law and Evil,” Law/Text/Culture, 2000, p. lexis
This is the terror that Burke wrote about, "...return as the repressed" (La Capra 1992: 126).
The Affirmative is an Act of Ethical Responsibility—Rather than Deferring the Question of Duty We Must Universally
Assume Our Actions and the Basis For Those Actions
Slavoj Zizek, Robespierre or the "Divine Violence" of Terror, Lacan.com, 2007 (http://www.lacan.com/zizrobes.htm)
We can see now why Lacan's motto ...what my duty is.
Nuclear Weapons are The Physical Component of the Textual Fantasy that is Nuclear Warfare—Telling the Stories of
Deterrence, Speaking the Potential of Nuclear War is Precisely What Realizes this Impossible Violence
Jacques Derrida, Philosopher Extraordinaire, “No Apocalypse, Not Now (Full Speed Ahead, Seven Missiles, Seven
Missives), DIACRITICS, v. 14 n. 2, Summer 1984, p. 23-24.
Third reason. In our techno-scientifico...a grand premiere appearance.
2ac tricks, Add-ons:
Answers to off-case args:
1ar strategy notes:
2ar strategy notes:
WSU BR Aff
Round # 2
vs Team: Macalester FI
Judge: Neal Travis
Plan Text-
The United States federal government should end all roles and missions of its forward deployed non-strategic nuclear
weapons and remove all of the United States federal governments forward deployed non-strategic nuclear weapons
from North Atlantic Treaty Organization host nations.
1ac w/ cites
Adv. 1- NATO-
Deployment of TNW’s in Europe is creating a divide within NATO

Hans Kristensen, 2006 (F.A.S. “U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Current Posture and Policy Implications”. ONLINE.)
Formally, at least…withdrawn from Europe
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Removing our TNW’s wouldn’t cripple NATO- would strengthen the alliance by modernizing its mission-
Kristensen (above)
Then there is the…post-Cold War alliance.
NATO will collapse without modernizing

International Analyst Network 2008 (“The Gap between nato missions and means is growing as we speak”.
www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=1607)
This is the key…best possible way
NATO is facing a legitimacy crisis, the key litmus test for the survival of the organization is redefining its strategic
posture
Ian Davis 2009 (“the shadow nato summit: options for nato- pressing the rest button on the strategic concept”)
There are good…of this war.
NATO is key to solve Afghanistan war

Ian Davis 2009 (above)
Afghanistan is where…pulling its weight.
Afghan conflict spills over to central asia

Szayna and Oliker 5 (“Faultlines of conflict in central asia and the south Caucasus”
www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/RAND_MR1598.sum.pdf)
The situation in Afghanistan…South Caucasus conflicts.
Nuclear War
S. Fredrick Starr (“The war terrorism and u.s. bilateral relations with the nations of central asia” Dec. 13.
www.cacianalyst.org/Publications/Starr_Testimony.htm)
However, this does not mean…the U.S. cannot ignore.
ADVANTAGE 2- Proliferation
Ending nuclear sharing prevents proliferation of nuclear weapons- it would restore western non-prolif credibility and
legitimacy to the NPT
Shawn Beatty et al 6 ( “Advancing Disarmament: Canada and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Nuclear Policy”.
ONLINE)
American nuclear weapons…with double standards.
Nuclear weapons in Europe do not deter proliferation

Kristensen (above)
The suggestion that U.S. nuclear…and cultural disasters.
Proliferation causes extinction- nuclear arms races and miscalculated nuclear war
Victor Utgoff, 2 (“Proliferation, Missile Defense, and American Ambitions”. Survival, Vol. 44, Number 2, summer 2002)
First, the dynamics…even whole nations.
The NPT is proven to prevent prolif- recent set backs are a lack of enforcement and international support
Simon Morgan 8 (“40 years on, NPT in urgent need of overhaul: exerpts”. June 29. Agent France Presse. Lexis)
Experts acknowledge the… bargain- and soon
NPT Key to prevent terrorists from acquiring nukes

Mary kaldor 9 (“Dismantling the Global Nuclear Infrastructure”. ONLINE)
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It is often…monitoring and verification
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Marshall Speice 6 (“Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-
Russian nonproliferation assistance program” 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. LEXIS)
The potential consequences…use of nuclear weapons.
Prolif cred is essential to prevent prolif

James E. Goodby 8 (Washington Times. July 9. “The Test of Leadership”)
Fewer than 10 nations…of nuclear weapons
SCENARIO 1- NPT
The NPT is on the verge of collapse- the most important step is to end NATO nuclear sharing in Europe
John Avery 9 (“The way is open for a nuclear weapon-free northern europe”
www.peoplesdecade.org/experts/detail.php?id=45)
The strongest argument…along the road.
The NPT is dying because of hypocrisy

Amulya Ganguli 9 (“NPT is dying”. www.dnaindia.com/opinion/main-article_npt-is-dying_1280284)
Pakistan, on the other…rogue nuclear states.
SCENARIO 2- NORTH KOREA
Nuclear sharing destroys US negotiating leverage with Iran and Korea

Christos Katsioulis and Christoph Pilger 8 (“Nuclear Weapons in NATO’s New Strategic Concept” library.fes.de/pdf-
files/id/ipa/05425.pdf)
The nuclear-sharing arrangements…the security of Europe.
Border skirmish with south korea would cause miscalc and nuclear war
Peter Goodspeed 9 (“Kim’s return brings instability back to Korean peninsula”.
www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=1246135)
After months out of…the study said.
SCENARIO 3- IRAN
Iran is going for nukes- they ar in the final stages

Debka 8-31 (“Six nations may reveal data concealed by ELBaradei in Iran’s nuclear progress”
www.debka.com/headlin.php?hid=6244)
US, Israel and four…discuss nuclear proliferation.
Removing tactical nukes from Turkey is key to prevent Iranian prolif

Mustaga Kibaroglu 7 (“A Turkish nuclear turnaround” Bulletin of Atomic Scientist. Nov/Dec.)
However, the tide has…lead the way.
Nuclear Iran causes Extinction

Enders Wimbush 7 (“Testimony before committee on house foreign affairs” Jan. 31. LEXIS)
From my perspective…Islam’s triumph worldwide
SOLVENCY
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The US should withdraw tactical nuclear weapons from Europe

The Acronym Institute 9 (“Nation nuclear policy: opportunities to strengthen the NPT”
www.acronym.org.ok/nato/briefing.htm)
As part of its…forces as well.
Multiple NATO countries have phased out strike capabilities already

Kristensen 6 (above)
That NATO permits this…no longer necessary.
Withdrawing our nuclear forces wouldn’t have any negative impact and is inevitable within 10 years
2ac Tricks, Add-Ons,
Answers To Off Case Args
Answers To Major Case Args
1ar Strategy Notes
2ar Strategy Notes
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Miami Fox/Lopez (Critical-Pitstuffing) [Amy]
Miami (Florida) LF
GSU Aff Disclosure

plan:
The United States federal government, specifically the executive branch, should mandate verifiable pit stuffing for all
nuclear warheads awaiting dismantlement. Implementation through normal means.
Observation One: TRANSPARENCY
Obama will pursue deep cuts in operationally deployed warheads, pressure allies and enemies alike to do the same,
ban testing and production of fissile material, and revise u.s. nuclear posture – even if some of these efforts ultimately
fail, unilateral reductions are inevitable
Oliver Stuenkel, 6-16-2009, M.A. Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Washington Office, KAS is a think tank and consulting agency, offering political education and conducting scientific
fact-finding research for political projects, Country Reports: United States, “More Than a Dream? Obama’s Vision of a
Nuclear Arms-Free World,” http://www.kas.de/proj/home/pub/1/2/dokument_id-16799/index.html
Obama’s plan has three steps. First, the United States will recognize that nuclear weapons have only a deterrent
function … Russian President Medvedev has signaled that he is ready to engage in negotiations with Mr. Obama to
accelerate the reduction of nuclear arsenals. US Assistant Secretary of State Gottemoeller held talks in Moscow on a
replacement for the START, which will expire in December 2009.
Current warhead counting rules mean that pledged reductions exist in name only – thousands of warheads awaiting
dismantlement are maintained to provide significant “upload” potential
Jeffrey Lewis and Meri Lugo, 4-13-2009, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New
America Foundation; research intern at the New America Foundation, “Where nuclear weapons go to die,” Foreign
Policy, http://experts.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/13/where_nuclear_weapons_go_to_die
Speaking in Prague on April 5, U.S. President Barack Obama called the thousands of nuclear weapons sitting in world
arsenals "the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War." He proposed deep cuts in U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles.
But when policymakers talk about nuclear reductions, what do they mean in practice? ... So, even if we agree to get rid
of them, nuclear weapons will be with us for quite a while.
this means any future reductions only increase the dismantlement backlog – and the infrastructure necessary to store
them safely doesn’t exist
Charles Digges, 5-13-2009, Editor of Bellona Web, Bellona Foundation, “Problems of where to store extra plutonium
from deeper Cold war weapons cuts dog Obama,”
http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2009/obama_weapons_cuts_storage
US President Barack Obama plans for deep new cuts in America’s nuclear arsenal comes at a time when the
government is facing a 15-year backlog of warheads already awaiting dismantlement, and billions of dollars are
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needed for new facilities to store and dispose of plutonium. … Among those areas where a US backlog in weapons
dismantlement are likely to become apparent quickly are a Texas storage site for plutonium pits, which will start hitting
space shortages in 2014, an inspector general audit released earlier this years said.
implementing further reductions without verifiably disabling warheads awaiting dismantlement makes all progress in
arms control easily reversible, failing to generate confidence that the reductions are meaningful
Steven E. Miller, Sep 2000, “A Comprehensive Approach to Nuclear Arms Control,” in Arms Control and Disarmament:
A New Conceptual Approach, United Nations Publications, Department for Disarmament Affairs, DDA Occasional
Papers, No.4, p.22-24, googlebooks
3 A comprehensive approach to nuclear arms control would seek to control warheads in reserve as well as deployed
warheads. Washington and Moscow generally have retained inventories of nuclear weapons that were not actually
deployed with either strategic or tactical forces. … Such rules would be a desirable component of a comprehensive
approach to nuclear arms control, since this would prevent rapid redeployment of weapons slated for destruction.
this reversibility dramatically increases the risk of breakout, ensuring multiple scenarios for a failure of deterrence and
subsequent nuclear war:
first, fears of greater upload potential risk miscalculation and force regeneration, which uncontrollably escalates
second, inexperience with force regeneration also risks accidental launch
third, centralizing warhead storage jeopardizes survivability and creates perverse incentives for first-strikes
and, the visibility and time required to upload means there’s no upside
Dr. Kathleen C. Bailey, 3-31-1998, Senior Fellow at National Institute for Public Policy, former Assistant Director for
Nuclear and Weapons Control, Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State,
Statement Before the US Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, http://armed-
services.senate.gov/statemnt/980331kb.htm
Proposed de-alerting measures have a number of significant detrimental effects, one of the most important being their
impact on deterrence. … If warheads were dispersed in many storage facilities to make them less inviting targets, the
task of protecting them would be extraordinarily demanding compared to the security required for either warheads on
missiles, or warheads in few storage areas.
pit-stuffing is the only process which can irreversibly and verifiably disarm nuclear warheads within minutes without
compromising sensitive information
Matthew Bunn, 1998, Assistant Director of the Science, Technology and Public Policy Program in the Belfar Center for
Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, “‘Pit-Stuffing’: How
To Disable Thousands of Warheads and Easily Verify Their Dismantlement,” FAS Public Interest Report, 51(2),
Mar/Apr, http://www.fas.org/faspir/pir0498.htm
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Technology exists which makes it possible to disable thousands of nuclear warheads, rapidly, permanently, and
verifiably -- and to verify their dismantlement with a minimum of cost and intrusion. … This technology can offer policy-
makers new options - and deprive them of excuses for not pursuing deep, transparent, and irreversible reductions in
nuclear arms.
this resolves dismantlement bottlenecks and eliminates problems with storage
Jeremy J. Stone, 1998, President, Federation of American Scientists, Ph.D. Mathematics, Stanford University,
“Disarmament By Pit-stuffing: Bomb Disablement Need Not Await Bomb Dismantlement,” FAS Public Interest Report,
51(2), Mar/Apr, http://www.fas.org/faspir/pir0498.htm
Post Cold-War U.S.-Russian relations provide a unique window of opportunity for disarmament. How frustrating then to
find that political leaders on both sides are failing to seize these opportunities, and to discover that bottlenecks in
dismantling warheads, or storing them securely, can turn potentially rapid progress in disabling nuclear weapons into
eyeball glazing decade-long disarmament processes. … In sum, pit-stuffing makes large-scale "instant" disarmament a
real and a live option. And this could change a lot in the calculations of decision-makers on whether to attempt fuller
exploitation of the present window of opportunity for disarmament.
implementing pit-stuffing now is key – verification after deep cuts is too late to solve confidence
Bruce Blair, et al., 1999, Jonathan Dean, James Goodby, Steve Fetter, Hal Feiveson, George Lewis, Janne Nolan,
Theodore Postol, and Frank von Hippel, “11. Verifying Deep Reductions in Nuclear Forces,” The Nuclear Turning
Point, Brookings Institution Press, p.225-227, googlebook
Verifying the warhead and fissile material declarations of the United States and Russia will be an enormous endeavor.
Because it will take many years for states to gain confidence in the accuracy and completeness of the declaration,
verification should begin as far in advance of deep reductions as possible. … Such operations could be readily verified
by existing materials measurement and accounting procedures.
observation two: RUSSIA
consultations with russia over reductions are ongoing, and although a treaty is inevitable, disagreements over warhead
counting rules and european missile defense have resulted in lowered expectations and drawn-out negotiations,
bolstering the position of hard-liners in the russian defense establishment and preventing meaningful progress
Charles Ferguson, and Stephen Sestanovich, 6-30-2009, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow for Science and Technology,
Council on Foreign Relations; George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Council on Foreign
Relations, Presider: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, Council on Foreign Relations, “Media Conference Call:
The Obama-Medvedev Summit,” http://www.cfr.org/publication/19731/
CHARLES D. FERGUSON: Well, Bernie, because the START agreement is going to expire in early December, that's
one of the main motivations to have this summit here in -- you know, coming in early July -- as you point out, it's still
early in the -- President Obama's term -- but because there are relatively few months left to have a follow-on START
agreement. … There was some work done on that in the late 1990s and I think the presidents may talk about trying to
get interest going again in that particular area.
upload capability is the primary concern of the russian defense establishment – absent transparency measures,
mistrust will collapse the entire nonproliferation agenda
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Stephen J. Blank, Mar 2009, the Strategic Studies Institute’s expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since
1989, former Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education,
Maxwell Air Force Base, and taught at the University of Texas, San Antonio, and at the University of California,
Riverside, Ph.D., M.A. History, University of Chicago, B.A. History, University of Pennsylvania, “Russia and Arms
Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Whereas Russia is destroying or cannot replace nuclear weapons equal to the enhancement of U.S. conventional and
nuclear capabilities, America, by walking out of the ABM treaty and refusing any kind of verification or constraint upon
its ability to upload or replenish weapons, has a huge strategic nuclear reserve that can be quickly mobilized for
military purposes. … Absent such reassurance and such an anchor, we will all be sailing on very stormy seas without a
rudder and with a corpse in the cargo.
scenario a: stockpile security
russia has demanded the u.s. make nuclear reductions irreversible by destroying warheads awaiting dismantlement –
u.s. agreement is critical to boost the position of russian moderates and secure access to russian stockpiles
Pavel Podvig and Frank von Hippel, 3-18-2002, member of the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists, researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, former
researcher at the Center for Arms Control Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, recipient of the
American Physical Society’s Leo Szilard Lectureship Award of 2008, Ph.D. Political Science, Moscow Institute of
World Economy and International Relations, degree in physics from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology;
Professor of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, former Assistant Director for National Security in
the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, “Take Russia’s ‘Yes’ for an Answer,”
http://www.bu.edu/globalbeat/syndicate/podvighippel031802.html
Long term concerns about the security of Russia’s fissile materials have now been compounded by the fear that some
terrorist groups would use nuclear weapons if they could acquire them. … Resolving remaining technical and legal
issues may still require considerable effort, but the two presidents could signal their political decision to move ahead by
coupling their agreement on reductions of deployed nuclear warheads with a joint statement on warhead elimination.
This would make the May summit both a guaranteed success and an encouraging first step toward securing and
reducing the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War.
specifically, absent transparent warhead elimination, russia won’t bugde on inspections, warhead and fissile material
security, or tactial nuclear weapons
Hans M. Kristensen, Dec 2001, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists,
co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (widely regarded as the most
accurate source of information on nuclear weapons and weapons facilities available to the public) and the World
Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook, “The Unruly Hedge: Cold War Thinking at the Crawford Summit,”
Arms Control Today, http://www.armscontrol.org/print/961
This article presents new information about the hedge that has recently been declassified and released under the
Freedom of Information Act. Newly available documents demonstrate that the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM),
which is responsible for U.S. nuclear forces, repeatedly warned during the 1990s that increased transparency of the
nuclear arms reduction process was more important after START II than new cuts, suggesting that Bush’s inclusion of
only operationally deployed strategic warheads in the new round of cuts is unwise because it will contribute to the
hedge and therefore the opacity of U.S. forces. … If Bush wants to transform our strategic relations with Russia, he
must make the entire stockpile accountable.
offering the plan ensures a verifiable framework for securing russian nuclear stockpiles
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Matthew Bunn, Mar 2000, Assistant Director of the Science, Technology and Public Policy Program in the Belfar
Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, “The Next
Wave: Urgently Needed Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Material,” Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/bum01/index.html
ASSISTANCE FOR TRANSPARENT DISMANTLEMENT OF THOUSANDS OF WARHEADS. Increased transparency

in the management of nuclear warhead and fissile material stockpiles (while maintaining protection for legitimate
nuclear secrets) will be fundamental to achieving deep reductions in nuclear arms, as well as cooperation to secure
nuclear stockpiles—and hence to reducing the nuclear threat to the United States. … Preliminary U.S.-Russian lab-to-
lab work in designing such measures is already under way. The total cost of such an effort, including the financial
assistance for warhead dismantlement, might be in the range of half a billion dollars over several years.
this is critical to prevent the most likely scenarios for nuclear terrorism
Jon Wolfsthal, 4-9-2002, Deputy Director for Nonproliferation, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former
special policy advisor on nonproliferation, U.S. Department of Energy, former on-site monitor, Yongbyon nuclear
facility, North Korea, founder of New Analysts in International Security, term member of the Council on Foreign
Relations, B.A. Emory University, “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism,” Carnegie Proliferation Brief, 5(7),
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=950&prog=zgp&proj=znpp
Bush administration officials say that because the United States and Russia are no longer enemies, the size of the
Russian nuclear arsenal no longer matters. But that sentiment ignores the main risk from Russia: not from a deliberate
nuclear attack but the possible leakage of nuclear weapons or material to would-be nuclear states or terrorist groups.
… The improving nature of the U.S.-Russian relationship should expand to include effective, transparent, and
reciprocal steps to ensure the safety and security of nuclear weapons as they wind their way toward eventual and
permanent elimination.
Nuclear terrorism ensures global nuclear war
Jerome Corsi, 2005, PHD in political science from Harvard, Expert in Antiwar movements and political violence,
excerpt from “Atomic Iran”, http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html
The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation will demand that the president retaliate for the
incomprehensible damage done by the attack. … That we might believe we can solve the problem diplomatically is
exactly the conclusion the mullahs are praying we will come to.
Scenario b: European theater missile defense
obama is planning to trade away the proposed european missile defense system in the hope of accelerating arms
reduction talks
The Washington Times, 8-28-2009, “Obama jilts Poland and the Czech Republic; America reneges on missile defense
for New Europe,” l/n
The United States is poised to dump a critical missile-defense agreement with two of its most dependable NATO allies.
… We are afraid to contemplate how long it will be before the Obama administration's national-security blunders have
serious and irreversible consequences.
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russian concerns over the missile shield are intrinsically tied to perceptions of u.s. upload capability – a concession on
one of the two issues is inevitable
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, 7-4-2009, a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, assignments included the
Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, “A moment of
truth for Obama in Moscow,” Asia Times Online, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KG04Ag01.html
Washington has a pressing need to engage Russia specifically and selectively on certain issues. … Possibly, even a
framework for a new accord may be announced, as it is customary for US-Russia summits to produce some results.
But a final deal could still be hampered.
alternative u.s. concessions are key to russian aquiescence to the missile shield
Pavel Podvig, 7-22-2009, member of the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, researcher at the
Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, former researcher at the Center for Arms
Control Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, recipient of the American Physical Society’s Leo
Szilard Lectureship Award of 2008, Ph.D. Political Science, Moscow Institute of World Economy and International
Relations, degree in physics from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, “The Moscow summit: A positive first
step,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/pavel-podvig/the-moscow-summit-
positive-first-step
Missile defense also drew significant attention during the talks. Russia has strenuously opposed the deployment of a
U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe for some time and has tried to force Washington to abandon it as part
of the arms control talks. … Better still, if they get this right, coming to an agreement on nuclear reductions and missile
defense will be much easier.
European missile defense uniquely prevents allies in the middle east from initiating nuclear weapons programs
Eckart von Klaeden, 5-10-2007, German MP and foreign-affairs spokesman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group,
“Missile Defense Means Common Security for Russia Too,” Atlantic Community, http://www.atlantic-
community.org/index/articles/view/Missile_Defense_Means_Common_Security_for_Russia_Too
Moscow should not cling to the old zero-sum game from the Cold War era. … The US missile-defense program will
serve the same purpose. It does not foment a nuclear arms race, but rather seeks to prevent it.
these rapid crash programs will overwhelm any stabilizing effects
Peter Madson, Mar 2006, master’s thesis for the naval postgraduate school, “the sky is not falling: regional reaction to
a nuclear-armed iran,” http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A445779&Location=U2&doc=Getrdoc.pdf
If the Gulf States were to embark on independent nuclear programs three dangerous side effects could emerge. … As
Nuclear Optimists have stressed, stability from nuclear proliferation comes from the slow addition of nuclear states, not
haphazard races for production.
this scenario for proliferation is uniquely destabilizing and risks multiple scenarios for nuclear war
Richard L. Russell, 11-1-2006, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy and
professor in Georgetown’s security studies program, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled
with Nuclear Weapons,” http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-155824168.html
How would the Middle East be affected by numerous states armed with nuclear weapons? The good news is that
some international security experts argue that the spread of such weapons would actually stabilize the region. … In
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short, in the Middle East of the future, numerous nuclear weapons stores will sit atop potentially explosive political
powder kegs like the one that exists in Pakistan today.
this ensures escalation to global nuclear war
John Steinbach, March 2002, DC Iraq Coalition, Centre for Research on Globalisation, “Israeli Weapons of Mass
Destruction: a Threat to Peace,” http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm
Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications
for future arms control and disarmament negotiations, and even the threat of nuclear war. … In the words of Mark
Gaffney, "... if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.S. complicity) is not reversed
soon - for whatever reason - the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration."
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Missouri State Steiner/Stout (Critical) [Britt]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Omelas Story at Beginning
“With a clamor of bells” and “the ones who walk away from Omelas.” *1
Planet Earth is beginning to look a lot like Omelas to the nuclear weapons states (NWS). The citizens of these states
are happy and joyous, rejoicing in the pristine eloquence of the nations they have created. They are secure from
enemies, militaries, crime, and guilt. The story represents our collective ability to bracket certain groups in society
(those who should not possess nuclear weapons) based on the threat of catastrophe. Our affirmative is not only about
the political consequences of our nuclear weapons policy, but also about the way the policy and the missions of
nuclear weapons are framed. Our argument is that this framing structures the very fabric of our existence. We become
unable to create new forms of ordering the world. A society without violence and into the void of happiness and joy is
not possible as long as the weight of our nuclear missions hang above us like the parabolic Sword of Damocles, that at
any minute can drop and destroy everything we have worked for. Caitlin Ward, Vincent Parascandolo and Lourdes
Villanueva*2 explains how this internalization of fear destructs identity and causes every situation to be viewed through
a lens of catastrophe. The goal of this world framing is to create a normalized community of nations.
“On July 16, 1945” and “Why is that never discussed?” she asked.”
This normalized community, like the community of Omelas, has several goals. One of which is to ontologically
construct the way our identity functions. Elimination is an inevitable result of this process. The will to radical
securitization, as indicated by Michael Shapiro *3 represents a deep seeded desire for ontological completion, a need
to define oneself in terms of particular policy prescription. In the context of our story people construct this identity on
the basis of the excluded non-nuclear powers. In the context of nuclear weapons policy other nations have become
forced to structure their policies and lives around the global goal of accepting only the declared nuclear powers as
legitimately owning and threatening the use of nuclear weapons. This desire for a coherent national identity is more
important than the political implications of the 1AC:
“…what is represented as quest for accomplishing political “ and “a violent confrontation with an enemy.”
The desire to manifest threats, to map and know the world geopolitically despite the cost is part of an active nihilism. A
way of knowing the world that mandates new fears to be eliminated. A way of knowing that creates a hatred and
invariably draws us closer together. Perhaps we do not directly interact with the people constructed as enemies. That
said, we are aware they are there. We are forced to remember our enemies through projected nuclear simulations,
through violent forms of science, and through a lack of discussion about our role in nuclear weapons policy. Instead of
forgetting about our enemies and releasing their control of us we are forced to remember. Indeed, this drive to
remember our fears is what prevents our ability to overcome our drive to control the globe. The memory that any
second we could be destroyed by a nuclear weapon or through a failure to develop a new weapons technology creates
a forced choice. Some of us choose to go back to our home, our utopias, convincing ourselves that we really are
special, we really do need nuclear weapons but others don’t. After all, it is not our place to continuously criticize global
structures of control. Those of us that choose not to go home wander endlessly, perhaps to another country or another
community. It is not important. Whether we stay and do nothing or run away, as long as we allow these nuclear
policies to remain in place it becomes impossible to actualize true human freedom. A freedom in which relationships
are not mediated by continual ethical domination.
Nuclear weapons remind us that anyone can be dangerous. No longer must we only fear international terrorism,
organized crime, environmental degredation, sexual slavery, faltering economies, racism, poverty, AIDS, world hunger
and swine flu we must also worry about what every country is developing in their basement and whether they are
being influenced by our strategies of deterrence. The mission of our nuclear weapons converts the population into an
object subject to managerial control. We become responsible for enforcing the policy of non nuclearization and as
Alain Badiou*4 explains this forces us to live a life free of its excess:
“…Ethics is the ideology of this insularity” and “whose other name is: death drive. “
The fundamental premise of this policy is that the government must avoid disaster of any flavor. In our endless pursuits
to calm our fears we create an existence in which the drive to be safe overrides the drive to live. No where is this more
clear than in the current mission of our nuclear weapons arsenal. Don’t create nuclear weapons. Don’t pursue nuclear
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technology. Don’t even think about trying to become like us. Alenka Zupancic*5 explains the way this policy forces us
to exist:
“An emblematic contemporary figure of this” and “most trivial and daily level of our lives”
Not only is life dangerous, it is also limited. Life is inherently about conflict. Why do we run from this? Why do we act
as if we are only a little safer, a little more protected, that we alone can escape on a ship of immortality. As a way of
giving up and embracing our inability to manage and control the world we stand resolved that: The United States
Federal Government should substantially reduce and restrict the missions of its nuclear weapons arsenal.
This affirmation embraces the totality of life. It is the recognition of the fundamental agonism and pain of existence. Our
affirmation is what creates an existence of meaning as opposed to the one based entirely on the have and have nots
of the nuclear game. The affirmation that someday you will die is based on the notion that we must cease to make
decisions based entirely on death avoidance. It affirms exactly what the mission of our nuclear weapons policy seeks
to deny……the idea that life is not free from conflict.
"Our father's were our models for god” and “ that we are free to do anything…” *6
1) LE Guin Ursala K “The ones who walked away from Omelas”

2) Caitlin Ward, Vincent Parascandolo and Lourdes Villanueva(insert quals later) “Nuclear Turning Point. North Korea,
Iran, and Nuclear Disarmament” International Policy Report November 2006
http://ciponline.org/asia/publications/1106_NTP.pdf
3) Michael Shapiro Violent Cartographies pg 97
4) Alain Badiou Ethics
5) Alenka Zupancic, The shortest shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two
6) Fight club
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Oklahoma Bunas/Tomik (Critical-Disarm) [DCH]
Oklahoma TW
Round # 3
vs Team: Wake BM
Judge: Ed Lee
Plan Text
The United States Federal Government should permanently disarm the United States’ entire nuclear arsenal.
1ac w/ cites
On caselist. Advantage is Nietzschean Stuff

2AC Tricks, Add-Ons
No Add-Ons
Answers to Off-case Arguments
Uses case to critique nearly everything—DAs based on value systems, causes to securitize everything in name of
security, few cards read
Also plays generic defense
Answers to Major Case Arguments
Answer varied based off the case argument but essentially created distinctions between the case and what the 1NC
argument was making—
1NC and block had Nuclear Fear Good, Calculations Good, Sassurian Language Bad, Nietzsche = Atrocity, We should
still act even if violence is inevitable
1AR Strategy Notes
Went for three main arguments across the flow—

1. No reason to vote Neg—justification for stopping death = value system that is arbitrary
2. Securitizing causes impacts—causes irrational fear of the other, means violence is inevitable
3. Violence Inevitable—can’t stop it, means only a reason why the Aff is good
2AR Strategy Notes
Went for a lot of external offense (was very similar to 1AR in argumentation)
Oklahoma TW Aff @ Gonzaga
Intro from aesthetics of ruins
P 432 “weapons that can destroy…you decide”
Nuclear buildup structues itself around the notion of a threat out there that we must protect ourselves against, a
dangerous other who wants to do us harm. During the cold war this image was that of Russia eagter to destroy, not
just everything we hold valuable and good, but the country as well. With theend of the cold war a new threat has
presenced itself, the image of the terrorist. This new enemy is invisible however, always lurking and waiting for our
mistakes ready to strike. The united states becomes viewed as merely looking to defend itself, removing any check on
its power.
Zizek in 05 “give Iranian nukes a chance __www.inthesetimes.com/article/ 2280__
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“every power structure has to rely…the real criminal”
The world is will to power and nothing besides. The image of the dangerous other we must protect ourselves against is
a power seizure, it is the realization of only one possibility and only one explanation of the world. Instead of accepting
this as moral law, we should see it for what it is, what we all are, merely an expression of one will to power
Ciano aydin Nietzsche on reality as will to power: toward and organization struggle model the journal of Nietzsche
studies 22 spring 07
“we can begin with some…always remain possible”
The logic of MAD is the logic of ressentiment par excellence, it attempts to make us feel secure without ever reaching
us there, doing nothing to remove the dangers of threats themselves. The strange and alien become identified as evil,
labeled a threat that must be dealt with. This strikes at difference itself. Deterrence strikes away at all that makes life
worth while
James der derian 1993 the political subject of violence p 101-105

“one must begin with nietzsche’s idea….calculation of risks and benefits”
THE USFG SHOULD PERMANENTLY DISARM THE UNITED STATES’ ENTIRE NUCLEAR ARSENAL
OUR BUILDUP OF WEAPONS IS ROOTED IN A NOTION OF DEFENSE. THIS CRETS A NEVER ENDING CYLE
OF PROLIFERATION AS WE SECURITIZE LIFE IN THE NAME OF SAFETY. Instead we view disarm as a break
away from the system, casing the sword down shattering it once and for all, only out of a height of feeling.
Nietzsche human all to human aphorism 284 1878

“the means to real peace…and from up high”
Nuclear weapons are a part of a larger system to approach to conflict itself. Assumed to keep us safe, small scale
disasters that are unimaginable under mad become incomprehensible. In fact it is the very notion that nuclear
weapons deter conflict that results in grander events of violence.
James der derian national security: an accident waiting to happen, predicting the present 27:3 2k5
“it often takes a catastrophe…total war by other means”
Disarm may make us more safe to break away from the web of bureaucracy and demonization, but we don’t really
care about that. Our claim is not that somehow extinction is immoral, but rather that our focus should instead be on the
affirmation of life itself. The number of threats we can imagine is never ending, and our responses similarly. Rather the
value of the aff is the opening up of vulnerability, the acceptane of the contingency and disorder inside of the world.
This reclaims life for ourselves
Themi in 8 Themi Deakin University 2008 Tim Cosmos and History: The Journal of
Natural and Social Philosophy, 4.1-2
__http://www.cosmosandhistory. org/index.php/journal/article/ view/96/192__
“but with psychoanalysis, rightly or wrongly…accidentally finishes us”
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Oklahoma Giglio/Watts (Critical) [Phil]
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 8 (Aff vs. California)
The nuclear umbrella argument relies upon an arbitrary elevation of military security over economic and cultural
decisionmaking
William c. Potter, 2008 Gaukhar Mukhatzanova. “divining nuclear intentions” international security vol. 33, no. 1 p. 142-
144
“perhaps the most startling findings pertain” and “negotiation of the NPT”
Be skeptical of their media reports – they overemphasize violence because it is exciting – these portrayals make
resolving conflict more difficult and risk escalation, turning the case
Tejas Patel.
“according to Galtung, the way media operate” and “to test Galtung’s claims”
All political appeals to managing terorirsm obscure the cycle of terrorism the affirmative is engaged in. terrorism is the
inevitable phenomenon of the war on terror terrorizing being
Andrew Mitchell. “Heidegger and Terrorism” research in phenomenology vol.35
“this does not mean that” and “which terrorism takes place”
Predictive disaster planning strips us of the tragedy and beauty of loss

Mitchell
“with everything available as stranding-reserve” AND “war in the mirror of technology”
The insecurity of the domino effect, especially in southeast asia, is a byproduct of a capitalist anxiety about the loss of
predictability and control over the countries described
Spanos American exceptionalism in the age of globalization. P 65-66
“the historical context” and “collapse of the soviet union”
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 3 (Aff vs. Michigan State)
Plan: The United States federal government should disarm the United State's nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear have weapons changed warfare from practice to doctrine. The emphasis on perception and process defined
not only how wars would be fought, but also the horizon of international politics and social lives in general. In a world
where war is omnicide, we are all living according to nuclear doctrine
Chow, 2k6 (Rey, Andrew W. Mellon Professor of the Humanities and Professor of Modern Culture & Media Studies,
Comparative Literature, and English, The Age of the World Target: Self-Referentiality in War, Theory, and
Comparative Work, Duke University Press, pg. 33-34)
The dropping of the atomic bombs … powers of visibility and control.
Contention 1 is The Age of The World Target
U.S. nuclear weapons policy is designed to foster control, not of international politics, but of global ideology. Our
nuclear policy defines certain things as worthy goals, like safety and security, but does so at the exclusion of global
environmental, economic, and social/humanitarian needs. These now-invisible costs are mounting toward a global
crisis making war and irreversible environmental damage inevitable
In the essay cited above, …the same level of visibility.
Current attempts to create a peaceful global order are draped in a rational and benign garb which depoliticize the
violent knowledge production inherent in the creation of the world as a mere object to be organized in accordance to
enlightened principles
Once the relations among war, … practices of peacetime learning.
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Failure to engage the West’s current egotistical knowledge production make warfare inevitable
Often under the modest …"the problem of the vanishing object."
The Impact is extinction
Zimmerman 81 (Micheal E., Prof of philosophy @ Tulane; Eclipse of the Self: The development of Heidegger’s
Concept of Authenticity. Pp 220-224
In 1951…rational miser
224)
Contention 2 is Pure War

Clausewitz had it backwards--Current economic and political activity is merely the continuation of war by other means
James, 2k7 (Ian, Lecturer in French and Fellow of Downing College at the U of Cambridge, Paul Virilio, Routledge,
pg.69-70)
The priority Virilio … of urban and geopolitical space.

The “total peace” promised by nuclear deterrence is an inversion of the “total war” of World War Two and constitutes a
virtualization of war through the bombardment of threats and the creation of insecurity in civilian populations aimed at
structuring the world in such a way as to eliminate the friction involved in traditional warmaking while maintaing total
control over populations
James, 2k7 (Ian, Lecturer in French and Fellow of Downing College at the U of Cambridge, Paul Virilio, Routledge,
pg.77-80)
Perhaps one of the most … order of security based on nuclear weapons.
Contention 3 is Site of Politics

The 1ac is a political act--Modernity’s emphasis on technology and speed has destroyed a traditional undersanding of
the locus of politics which now takes place in the sphere of communication itself. James, 2k7 (Ian, Lecturer in French
and Fellow of Downing College at the U of Cambridge, Paul Virilio, Routledge, pg. 95-97)
As his writing develops … temporality of real time proper to them.
Our psychologization of the current state of internationl politics exposes the tendency to ignore the connections
between such seemingly different concepts as war and peace, the only alternative is an ignorant attempt to engage the
world through a hegemonic lens of sameness
James, 2k7 (Ian, Lecturer in French and Fellow of Downing College at the U of Cambridge, Paul Virilio, Routledge, pg.
18-19)
If Virilio's account … towards those who see differently.
Bleiker everyday politics evidence
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 1 (Aff vs. Emory)

CONTENTION ONE: PRE-EMPTION
Continued reliance on a nuclear deterrent leads to societal anxiety which necessitates pre-emptive use – the very
presence of nuclear weapons creates the conditions for a violent social pathology which incessantly creates enemies
to be constructed and destroyed
Koehler PhD NYU 2005 Brian The International Society for the Psychological Treatments Of the Schizophrenias and
Other Psychoses 5/07http://www.isps-us.org/koehler/nuclear_arms.htm
Hanna Segal, Kleinian psychoanalyst, … guilt over destructiveness, etc.
While it is true that all power structures rely on an implicit threat, the political structures of the 20th century have
radically shifted where this threat is located by externalizing threats onto an Outsider Enemy which creates the
permanent state of emergency that serves as the primordial justification for violence Zizek in 2005 Slavoj, In These
Times, August 11, http://www.lacan.com/zizekiranian.htm
Every power structure … Jean Charles de Menezes).
This enemy construction creates incessant actualization of violent measures against a threat – the policy of Mutually
Assured Destruction has led us to the politics of one sole madman – this is the most dangerous politics because
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defense of an arbitrary and dangerous ideology can justify all violence – the presupposition of an enemy’s bad
intentions is inhumane and a form of constant war
Zizek in 2005 (Slavoj, In These Times, August 11, http://www.lacan.com/zizekiranian.htm)
Classic power functioned … completely as the desire for conquests.
The MAD ideology does not lead to international security – it instead necessitates the maintenance of asymmetry
through a violent build up of weapons
Massumi, Comm Department at University of Montreal, 2007 Brian, Theory & Event 10.2
Now for a future cause … you can't very well stop.
This asymmetry necessitates a politics of preemption
Deterrence does not work … return to a Cold War logic.
This logic of nuclear preemption is based on the assessment of future threat –unfortunately the global situation is
threat-o-genic because it is capable of producing an infinite number of future potential threats – this makes it eerily
simple to justify the use of nuclear weapons
Preemption shares many characteristics … entirely different plane.
Plan: The United States federal government should disarm the United State’s nuclear arsenal.
CONTENTION TWO: POLITICS

The advent of nuclear weapons has radically reconfigured the political sphere. The nuclear security state uses the ever
present threat of nuclear use to preclude civic engagement by formulating its policy beneath a matrix of secrecy
Masco, 2007 [Joseph , Dept. of Anthropology @ U Chicago, “The Nuclear Public Sphere,” Ethnografeast III:
Ethnography and the Public Sphere, available athttp://ceas.iscte.pt/ethnografeast/papers/joseph_masco.pdf]
The power of the secret … a highly distorted public sphere.
The crisis of the nuclear arsenal necessitates robust and public deliberation – unfortunately the security state limits the
possibility for open deliberation by maintaining a rhetoric of guardianship
Bryan C. Taylor, Associate Professor of Communications @ University of Colorado @ Boulder, and Judith Hendry,
Lecturer in Communication @ U New Mexico Albuquerque, 2008,“Insisting on Persisting: The Nuclear Rhetoric of
“Stockpile Stewardship””, Rhetoric and Public Affairs Vol. 11 No.28
In response, rhetorical critics … to ensure their adequate consideration?
Abdication of the public sphere leads to conservative fill-in guaranteeing authoritarianism and extinction
Boggs, Professor of Political Science, ’97 (Carl, National University, Theory & Society 26, December, p. 773-4)
The decline of the public sphere … from civil society.75
The lack of deliberation over nuclear doctrine creates a public that is numb to the normality of nuclear use
Granoff, 2k3 (Jonathan, President of the Global Security Institute, “Power Over the Ultimate Evil”, Bimonthly Jewish
Critique of Politics, Culture & Society,http://www.gsinstitute.org/archives/000211.shtml)
Over time, … banality of nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, the nuclear security state’s insistence on the secrecy of deterrence policy assures policy failure and
conflict escalation
Arbatov and Dvorkin, 2k5 (Alexei and Vladimir, Center for International and Security Studies @ Maryland, Revisiting
Nuclear Weapons”,http://74.125.155.132/search?
q=cache:dti5awEM5Y4J:www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/arbatov_dvorkin.pdf+nuclear+deterrence+projection+rationa
lity&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a#13)
In a real crisis situation, …he fateful hour comes.
And, this makes the decision to launch our nuclear arsenal a mere formality
Arbatov and Dvorkin, 2k5 (Alexei and Vladimir, Center for International and Security Studies @ Maryland, Revisiting
Nuclear Weapons”,http://74.125.155.132/search?
q=cache:dti5awEM5Y4J:www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/arbatov_dvorkin.pdf+nuclear+deterrence+projection+rationa
lity&cd=13&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a#13)
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Moreover, at such time the … potential attack azimuths.
The nuclear veil of secrecy makes standard decision making epistemologically unsound – the manufacturing of
intelligence to build support for the Iraq war proves that the plans reactivation of the public sphere is a prerequisite to
making any accurate political assessments Masco, 2007 [Joseph , Dept. of Anthropology @ U Chicago, “The Nuclear
Public Sphere,” Ethnografeast III: Ethnography and the Public Sphere, available
athttp://ceas.iscte.pt/ethnografeast/papers/joseph_masco.pdf]
Finally, the secret society that is the …remains as the basis for action.
We must reclaim control over nuclear decision making – the plans refusal of government secrecy is necessary to
reactivate a productive political sphere
Giroux, 2k9 (Henry A., Global TV Network chair in English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University in Canada,
“The Politics of Lying and the Culture of Deceit in Obama’s America: The Rule of Damaged Politics”, Truthout, Sept.
21, 2k9, http://www.truthout.org/092109R) The politics of lying … ignorance and widespread injustice.
2AC Stuff --
AT: Government will Still be secretive without nukes
The material existence of the nukes is the foundation of governmental secrecy
Joseph Masco, Dept of Anthropology @ U Chicago, 2007

(“The Nuclear Public Sphere,” Ethnografeast III: Ethnography and the Public Sphere,
http://ceas.iscte.pt/ethnografeast/papers/joseph_masco .pdf)
“The classified universe is…the secrecy/threat matrix”
AT: Deterrence Good
Deterrence theory is draped in expertism
Derber and Schwartz, 89 (Charles and William A., Prof of Sociology @ Boston College, The Nuclear Seduction: Why
the Arms Race Doesn’t Matter and What Does, Pg. 230-31)
“Similarly, to dominate the….can get on blacklisted”
AT: Health Care
Unilateral cuts coming – Obama Plan
Weekly Standard 9-24 (http://www.weeklystandard .com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/993kkohs.asp)
“John Noonan recently wrote….or international community thinks.”
Perception is non-unique – UN speech
International Relations & Security Network 9-25
“A big week in….work toward these ends”
Narratives of weather disaster provide a spectacular fixation for a displaced desire to control nature absolutely.
Sturken, Associate Prof of Communication @ UC, 2001

(Marita, “Desiring the Weather: El Nino, the Media and California Identity,” Public Culture 13.2, project muse online)
“One of the primary narratives….El Nino’s ornery little sister.”
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Gonzaga Round 2
Death Drive – 1AC
The international system is plagued by the fantasy that we are omniscient masters who can conquer and defeat the
violence that permeates our internal order. The ideology and desire of late Capital and modernity structure this fantasy
to overcome and conquer the psychic death drive. This fantasmic desire to overcome the drive produces an endless
cycle of error replication because we repeatedly mis-target the sources of conflict and violence. This cycle is an
inevitable march toward ultimate destruction. Paradoxically, the drive structures the logic of the international system,
yet also poses as the radical possibility to move beyond it. Acknowledging that death is not the mark of human finitude
allows us to take pleasure in the pain of continually missing our goal. This confrontation with the death drive allows for
a radical break beyond this cycle of violence and corruption.
Zizek, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Social Studies, Ljubljana 1999Slavoj, The Ticklish Subject, page 293- 297
The lesson of drive … repeatedly missing one’s goal. 65
To confront the internal order constituted by the death drive, we must accept the apolitical and destructive logic of the
status quo. Any partial embracing of the death drive is underwritten by the desire to avoid authentically confronting it
and to violently maintain the ideological fantasies of Truth and Goodness
Zizek, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Social Studies, Ljubljana 1999 Slavoj, The Ticklish Subject, page 160-161
In Lacanese, the subject … Truth and/or Goodness.
In the realm of nuclear weapons the death drive is manipulated in the name of deterrence and eradication of those
who contradict the sovereign notion of good. We are confronted with the chaos of the death drive at a time when the
advancements in technology have outpaced our ability to advance an understanding of ethics. Deterrence ideologies
act as ignorance of the Thing of the nuclear age which surpasses all rational calculation. Our path to destruction is
buttressed by our lack of theorization and application of a theory of the Real and our insistence on policing the
boundaries of the Good
Themi Deakin University 2008 Tim Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy, 4.1-
2http://www.cosmosandhistory.org/index.php/journal/article/view/96/192
But with our advancements …our most tragic problems.
Continued reliance on an ideology of the Good causes us to project evil onto the enemy other
The goal here … hinted at self-amusement.[54]
And this enemy construction creates an ever-expanding measures against ever present threats – the ideology of
deterrence has extended from an ideology amongst nation states to one that can be extended to a Sole Madman – this
ideology guarantees infinite violence in the international realm
Zizek in 2005 (Slavoj, In These Times, August 11, http://www.lacan.com/zizekiranian.htm)
Classic power … desire for conquests.
We must overcome the nihilism inherent in this denial and manipulation of desire by saying yes to life and opposing
the aesthetic of nuclear destruction - only this act can serve as an adequate confrontation with the real
But with psychoanalysis, … until it accidentally finishes us!
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In order to confront and overcome the nihilism created by the ideology of deterrence we affirm that:
The United States Federal Government should permanently disarm the United States’ entire nuclear arsenal. We can
clarify
Recognition of the death drive abolishes the source of totalitarian temptations – our attempt to articulate a new way of
living free of nuclear weapons is the only hope to break away from our violent international order.
Zizek Senior Researcher at the Institute for Social Studies, Ljubljana 1999 Slavoj, The Ticklish Subject, page 390-391
On the other hand, …order is profoundly misleading.
The particular construction of enemies is the ideological knot that holds together the universal system of deterrence
and nuclear weapons – untying this disintegrates the system as a whole
Zizek 1999 Slavoj, The Ticklish Subject, page 175-176
Ridiculous as this notion … by addressing the sinthome. . . .
The affirmative creates the space necessary for politics by using a universal gesture to expose the exclusions and
violence created by democratic systems - our demand for disarmament is for more then just a call to reduce weapons -
it creates a particular call that can be written onto the universal struggle against capital
Dean, Associate Professor of Political Theory at Hobart & William Smith, 2005 Jodi, Zizek against Democracy,
jdeanicite.typepad.com/i_cite/files/zizek_against_ democracy_new_version.doc
I’ve argued thus far … ‘itself’ absent this ‘beyond’)
Our affirmative is a gesture of state suicide--rather than attempt to subvert the state from out, we force the law to
confront the death drive at the heart of its constitution by pitting the logic of deterrence against nuclear annihilation.
Only this gesture of internal subversion strikes at the heart of law which is symbolic legitimacy, turning it against itself.
Slavoj Zizek, Senior researchaer @ Ljubljana, 2002 For The Know Not What The Do: Enjoyment as a POlitical Factor,
Pg. 206-7
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Pepperdine Franklin/Yagheszian (Critical-Patriarchy) [Juju]
Pepperdine FY
Chapter One: Sexbombs
Nuclear rhetoric is marked by sexually violent imagery that double as pornographic glorifications of the phallus.
Caputi, 2004 (Jane. Professor of Women’s Studies and Communication at Florida Atlantic University. Goddesses and
Monsters: Women, Myth, Power and Popular Culture. p. 245-247)
Nuclearist culture creates and sustains a symbolic system in which bombs are sexy and nuclear weapons are
extensions of the penis. These images and rhetoric posit nuclear blasts as the ultimate orgasm, eroticizing domination
and legitimizing violence against women and the Earth.
Caputi,1993. (Jane. Professor of American Studies at the University of New Mexico. Gossips, Gorgons, and Crones:
The Fates of the Earth. p.53-54
Chapter Two: Bodies as Weapons
Our war culture constructs weapons as bodies and bodies as weapons, systematically gendering the war system
through Western mass media and culture
MYRTTINEN 2003 (Henri. “Disarming Masculinities.” Women, Men, Peace, and Security. Accessed via Google
Scholar)
The body is our basic framework for internalizing knowledge, meaning and truth. Cultural and national style is marked
on our bodies and internalized to be expressed in our relations with others and the material world around us.
Mann in 07 (Bonnie. “How America Justifies Its War: A Modern/Postmodern Aesthetics of Masculinity and
Sovereignty”)
Thus, we stand resolved that we should disarm the technostrategic and sexualized rhetoric of the bomb.
The Bomb is a cultural paradox that can be utilized for radical change. While it has radically altered our existence, it
also illuminates the utter failure of masculinist domination. Rendering the nuclearist narrative obsolete can
reconceptualize the reigning narratives.
Caputi,1993. (Jane. Professor of American Studies at the University of New Mexico. Gossips, Gorgons, and Crones:
The Fates of the Earth. p.29-30)
The political is grounded in aesthetics used to construct meaning and identity. The successful production of war
depends upon the successful production of an aesthetic of war. Only our exposure and rejection of the nuclear
aesthetic can solve.
Mann in 07 (Bonnie. “How America Justifies Its War: A Modern/Postmodern Aesthetics of Masculinity and
Sovereignty”)
The system of nuclear icons is embedded in a system of power. These icons produce truth, objectify of the Other, and
reinforce dominant narratives in order to justify state action and violence.
Harriman 2007 (No Caption Needed. P 1-4)
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Pittsburgh Karlovic/Mangus (Critical-Megamachine) [Jay]
Obs. 1 Rise of the Megamachine
The megamachine is the emergence of a system of power that uses humans as its constituent parts. It is an ideology
that unites the ancient and modern world that molds life to fortify its powers complex – the collective dedication of
death in nuclear war. These modes of extermination are rooted upon the psychic irrationality that sustains the fantasty
of absolute weapons.
“The ideology hat underlies and…..mankind is finally to save itself” p. 260-262
The priests of this religion of the megamachine are the scientists who created and envisioned the world as a
landscape without figures – a purely mechanical system that eclipsed the human, bent on harnessing and controlling
the power of the sun to reshape the world according to the sun God’s strict commands.
“Plainly, it was not the….the ‘music of spheres’” p. 33
These priests replaced the human world of the Christian with a purely impersonal universe of science as law and truth.
History is replete with a progression from the personal human to the austere religion that positions science as the only
source of meaning and the achievement of scientific truth as its ultimate purpose. From Copernicus to Kepler, to Louis
XIV and Atum-Re – the sun as reigned supreme.
“If one ignore the religious aura…Eliade observes, ‘the sun is supreme’” (p. 34-35)
Obs 2. The Omnipresence of Death
The modern megamachine has recoded the Sun worship of the technocratic religion through nuclear technology. The
pyramids of Egypt have become the stockpile of nuclear weapons, space rockets, control centers, and collective
nuclear shelters used to validate and exalt the new religion that has unified all systems and institutions , ways of life,
and being into its ever proliferatory and expansive umbrella of death
“The modernized megamachine has reproduced….as had escaped instant incineration” )p. 300-302)
The production of the nuclear weapon was critical to the constitution and emergence of the modern megamachine. It
gave scientists their new place atop the power hierarchy. Every part of the megamachine is deliberately sterilized of
human values – the relentless pursuit of knowledge, the methods were same but the purpose as mad.
“The production of the atom….dreadful ultimate consequences of their effort” p. 255
Increasing physical power without a corresponding increase of intellectual insight gives scientific and technological
backing to a totalitarian de-moralization of society that released moral inhibitions and life – conserving taboos
concerning technology. This explosive increase of energy has reimposed infantile ambitions and psychotic
hallucinations in the very foundation of society.
“What Adams forsaw in this…..infatile ambitions and psychotic hallucinations” p. 232-233
Total automation has reduced society to the role of automatons – a giving up of all of the conditions to prerogatives for
being human. Surrendering life at the source consigns our existence to the central bureaucratic programming of the
megamachine.
“For the sake of material and…..has always dreamed of? Quite true?” p. 332
The universal imposition of the megamachine as the ultimate instrument of pure intelligence by the construction of the
nuclear pyramid makes the extermination of humanity pale in comparison. A nuclear Ragnarok from which there is no
return – the end of gods and humans.
“In short, up to the present….now perhaps actually taking place.” P. 302-303
Observation 3: Dismantling the Megamachine
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We affirm that the United States Federal Government should eliminate its nuclear weapons arsenal.
The megamachine is not a natural or a priori phenomenon it is the result of human thinking and must be confronted as
such. Technocratic society will continue to cannibalize our vital organs to prolong its meaningless existence until we
recognize that the technocratic prison will open if we just choose to walk out.
“As long as man’s life prospers….as we choose to walk out.” P. 435
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Richmond Hakkenberg/Leeworthy (Critical-Labs) [Phil]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention One: We have a unique opportunity to consider the elimination of nuclear weapons
It is possible to reduce nuclear weapons now and, although we do not agree with a standard impact calculus, we may
all be doomed to an inevitable world of nuclear weapons and an eventual nuclear war.
A Panel of Six Unbelievable Experts on Nuclear Weapons, 2009 (“Imagine there's no bomb”, The Age (Melbourne,
Australia), April 8, 2009 Wednesday, NEWS; Opinion; Pg. 17 Malcolm Fraser (former prime minister), Sir Gustav
Nossal (research scientist), Dr Barry Jones (former Labor government minister), General Peter Gration (former
Defense Force chief), Lieutenant-General John Sanderson (former chief of the army and former governor of South
Australia) and Assistant Professor Tilman Ruff (national president of the Medical Association for Prevention of War
Australia).
THERE has never …and is basically immoral.
Yes, we know the Cold War is over, and yet we are still surrounded by nuclear weapons. They have been stockpiled in
warehouses, tucked “safely” onto their bunker shelves, maintained and protected by the rhetoric of politicians and
nuclear scholars since the 1950s. The language of nuclear “guardianship” is still alive and well, naturalizing nuclear
weapons as a part of everyday American life.
Taylor and Hendry 08. Bryan C. Taylor is a Professor of Communication at the University of Colorado-Boulder and
Judith Hendry is a Lecturer in the Department of Communication and Journalism at the University of New Mexico.
“Insisting on Persisting: The Nuclear Rhetoric of “Stockpile Stewardship,” Rhetoric and Public Affairs Vol. 11, No. 2,
2008, pg. 303-304
Audiences attempting to follow
PLAN: The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce and restrict the role of its nuclear weapons
arsenal.
Contention Two: Rhetorically Reversing the Pile! The Stockpile Stewardship Program or SSP.
The SSP is a major component of the US’s nuclear program.
2008, pg. 306
As planned, …located in seven states.
The SSP is a LEGAL excuse to build more dangerous weapons than EVER imagined. Previous federal statements
prove.
2008, pg. 306-308
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In planning and implementing the SSP,
Nuclear policy, public opinion and official rhetoric are one and the same. Ignoring the power of nuclear rhetoric dooms
any policy to failure.
Taylor 07. Bryan C. Taylor is a Professor of Communication at the University of Colorado-Boulder. “‘The Means to
Match Their Hatred’: Nuclear Weapons, Rhetorical Democracy, and Presidential Discourse,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 37, No. 4, December 2007, pgs. 667-692.
In his related critique …media, and the people?
The language of stewardship simultaneously depicts the nuclear stockpile as an outdated relic and a cornerstone of
US national security. Rearticulating the importance of nuclear weapons in the hegemonic discourse of commodity
production replaces their destructive power with tame rationality, and allows officials to, literally, keep the ticking bomb
on the shelf for a rainy day without any objection.
2008, pg. 311-312
This claim is demonstrated in the April 2005
2008, pg. 313-315
The second strategy …on this planet.
Nuclear weapons are art. Poets and Presidents have manipulated the language and imagery of nuclear war to control
public opinion. Now is the time paint our own pictures and take control of the debate about nuclear weapons.
Taylor 07. Bryan C. Taylor is a Professor of Communication at the University of Colorado-Boulder. “‘The Means to
Match Their Hatred’: Nuclear Weapons, Rhetorical Democracy, and Presidential Discourse,” Presidential Studies
Quarterly 37, No. 4, December 2007, pgs. 667-692.
In the summer of 1987, ….civic deliberation.
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Richmond Farr/Kelly (Critical-Chernus) [Arif]
GSU Aff Disclosure

The cornerstone of Western ethics is reducible to the aesthetic experience of the Kantian sublime – an experience of a
natural or technological phenomenon occurring with such spectacular enormity so as to overwhelm human sensibility
and provoke a ‘feeling’ of ‘transcendental totality.’ Nuclear weapons form the perfect sublime object from which we
derive pleasure, devaluing the real world in their false-confirmation of a ‘God’ of some ‘Sovereign Good.’
Professor Scott Stroud of the Philosophy Department at Temple University, and Assistant Professor in
Communications Studies at UT Austin, explains in 2003,
[Stroud, Scott “Living Large: Kant and the Sublimity of Technology.” Teaching Ethics, Fall 2003. Pg. 53-59.]
If the Bomb is a material replacement for God, our possession of it gives us a God complex. This complex stems from
a desire to baptize Earth by fire—or an attempt to re-fashion the world into one without death or suffering.
[Chernus, Ira. Dr. Strangegod. South Carolina: University of South Carolina Press, 1986. Pg. 133-5, 143-5.]
This complex is symptomatic of a nihilistic death drive. The repression of Death paradoxically aligns us with it, making
life here—in the real—undesirable.
Professor Tim Themi, senior researcher of Philosophy at Deakin University explains in 2008,
[Themi, Tim. “How Lacan's Ethics might improve our understanding of Nietzsche's critique of Platonism.” Cosmos and
History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy, Vol. 4.1, Spring 2008: pp. 328-346.]
Thus, Mycal and I advocate that:

The United States Federal Government should eliminate its nuclear weapons.
We cannot begin to confront the psychological-symbolic level of nuclear weapons as long as they exist. Our plan is the
first step in an ethic of “imagining the real.” Imagining the real means accepting the world, suffering and all. The
ultimate failure of successive conceptions of God cannot be resolved by identifying with a new conception of God. Our
focus must be on the dislocation of these symbolizations itself.
Chernus above.
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Texas Boyle/Singh (Critical-TSD) [Nick/Heather]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Observation one is the Iron Curtain-
The way we think about nuclear weapons is inextricably tied to a narrative of techno-strategic discourse that creates
“terministic screens” that strategically construct our nuclear reality in ways that domesticate nuclear weapons use. This
systematic disenfranchisement of the public sphere from the very language of nuclear decision-making places our
collective future in the hands of puppet officials and techocrats who obfuscate their ethics for simply “getting the job
done.”
Edward Sciappa. Assistant Professor of Speech at Kansas State University. “The Rhetoric of Nukespeak.”
Communication Monographs. 56: September 1989. pp.253-272
The second methodological and…. women, and children is called “demographic” or “countervalue” targeting (Cohn,
1987, p. 691; Hilgartner et al., 1982, pp. 209-210; Totten, 1984, p. 45).
Modern technocratic nuclear discourse is a form of discursive discipline - determining who and who may not speak,
privileging expert rationalities that colonize global commons, and providing for false dichotomies between the
“technical” and “public” spheres in other policy arenas.
Kinsella ’05 [William, Associate Professor at North Carolina State University, Interdisciplinary Program Director—
Science, Technology and Society, “One Hundred Years of Nuclear Discourse: Four Master Themes and Their
Implications for Environmental Communication”, in The Environmental Communication Yearbook by Susan Senecah,
pg.52-54]
Additionally, Ruthven pointed out that… illuminate the roots of this value preference.
Observation two is the Tech-not-so-strategic situation -

Our bodies are the battlegrounds upon which the war for consent to militerism is fought – and the weapons used by
the state is a rhetoric which connects pain, fear and statist ideology. Technostrategic discourse presents us with the
option of “conform or die” – either we speak the language of the state or experience the silence of our own voices, we
cease to have subjectivity, becoming objects of the state & parrots to state violence. This denial of political consent
accounts for nuclear weapons moral obscenity in the realm of warmaking.
Grimes, Asst. Pf. of Theater and English @ St. Leo University, '05 (Charles, Harold Pinter's Politics-A Silence Beyond
Echo, p. )
If silence is the endpoint ….. of the state unites Pinter's political plays.
Furthermore, nukespeak maintains this genocidal ideology through modes of psychological brutalization and
dissociation, by displacing responsibility for our individual actions on larger structures we are numb to their
reprocussions. We become the doctors of Auschwitz, performing gruesome experiments while displacing responsibility
on the Nazis. The decision to use nuclear weapons is no longer seen as a choice but as an inevitability that we could
have done nothing to prevent.
LIFTON AND MARKUSEN, 1990
Robert Jay, Eric, The Genocidal Mentality Pt 3: In defense of Idealistic Moralism vs 'Pragmatism',
http://www.awitness.org/journal/idealistic_moralism.html
In the end the genocidal system…. of its purpose (see also Hales 1997).
By Relying on a reality created by the scientific official Other with a vested interest in the nuclear complex makes, we
are blind and to the violence they inflict, making nuclear war the most likely outcome.
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Schiappa, 1989
(Edward, Assistant Professor of Speech at Kansas State University, The Rhetoric of Nukespeak, Communication
Monographs, Volume 56, September, p. 253-272)
Farrell and Goodnight have…. nuclear war-making.
Thus Shikhar and I endorse the following plan:
United States missileers should choose not to turn the key to launch nuclear weapons.
We’ll clarify.
Just as all policy debate is necessarily a persuasive act towards a change from the status quo, The 1AC is a
persuasive act toward the question of whether the missileer should break with the status quo and choose not to turn
the key to launch nuclear weapons.
Our answer is an unequivocal yes – In the face of the atrocity of nuclear weapons, we affirm the disobedience inherent
in refusing to turn the key – the missileer decision to disobey the orders of the nuclear bureaucracy is an infusion of
presence into the weapons, a re-establishment of ethical agency, and a re-personalization of war.
Guenter Lewy. Professor of Political Science at Smith College. “Superior Orders, Nuclear Warfare, and the Dictates of
Conscience: The Dilemma of Military Obedience in the Atomic Age.” The American Political Science Review. 55.1:
March 1961. pp. 2-23 [THIS EVIDENCE HAS BEEN GENDER-MODIFIED]
When Francis Gary Powers…. ahead, would have been born into life.
Our ethical framework is the care of the self – the individual’s manipulation of power relations for the purpose of self-
formation, a delimitation of his or her ethical agency through an identification and reversal of disciplinary strategies.
The missileer’s disobedience in the face of the disciplinary forces of the nuclear complex is a recognition and
transgression of its normalizing limitations that is irreducible to political success or failure.
Our argument is not that we "free" ourselves or the missileer from military domination. "Freedom" of the individual is
not a pre-existing, natural state that can be returned to. Freedom exists only in practices of liberty. Disobedience is an
act imbued with the message that ethics is the only practice of liberty and liberty the only meaning of ethics. Rejection
of consent to nuclear murder through an act of disobedience communicates the "ethos of freedom," the epitome of
caring for others through care of self. This is a radical reorientation of politics that demolishes the barrier between
ethical and political.
Bernauer and Mahon ‘05[James W, Professor of Philosophy and Boston College, and Michael, associate professor of
humanities at Boston University’s College of General Studies, “Foucault’s Ethical Imagination” in The Cambridge
Companion to Foucault Second Edition, edited by Gary Gutting]
The explicit ethical voice that …those who made the revolution
And, our ethics requires looking beyond the politics of life and death – the engagement with and transgression of the
nuclear complex represents an impatience for liberty that will not submit to a hypothetical, messianic future
Bernauer and Mahon ‘94 [James W, Professor of Philosophy and Boston College, and Michael, associate professor of
humanities at Boston University’s College of General Studies, “The Ethics of Michel Foucault” in The Cambridge
Companion to Foucault, edited by Gary Gutting]
What is the necessity/….. name itself the human essence.
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A true ethical evaluation necessitates forgoing strict morality and utilitarian rationalism – both are only outgrowths of
law’s conceptual domination that limit ethical possibilities. We affirm a loose moral framework that allows for an ‘ethics
of existence’, the ability for individuals to negotiate their position relative to this framework.
Bevir ’99 [Mark Bevir, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley “Foucault and Critique:
Deploying Agency Against Autonomy” (1999). Political Theory. 27, pp. 65-84]
I hope my discussion of…. though our personal, ethical conduct.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRIMARY ROLE IS RHETORICAL – YET POLICY DEBATE RARELY TOUCHES ON
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AS A CULTURAL PRODUCTION – DISCOURSE, PSYCHOLOGY, AND THE
STRATEGIC PRODUCTION OF CULTURAL MEANING ARE THE VERY FIELDS IN WHICH CLAIMS OF THE
VALIDITY OF NUCLEAR POLICY REST – BY INTERROGATING THIS CRITICAL SOCIAL RELATION INHERENT IN
NUCLEAR POLICY-MAKING, OUR ARGUMENT PRESENTS A DEEP CHALLENGE TO THE LEGITIMACY OF ANTI-
DEMOCRATIC STATE PRACTICES.
TAYLOR, Asst. Pf. of Communications @ UC Boulder, ’07 (Bryan C., Presidential Studies Quarterly 37, no. 4
(December), p. 667-)
This interdependency between… and legitimate icon
WHEN THE TOPIC WAS ANNOUNCED, WE WERE FACED WITH A SERIES OF CHOICES: HOW WILL WE
APPROACH THE TOPIC?, WHAT WILL WE CHOOSE TO TALK ABOUT?, AND ALSO, WHO MIGHT WE BECOME?
THE AFFIRMATIVE SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD AS AN ADORNMENT OF OUR DEBATERLY BODIES - THE

AFFIRMATIVE IS PART OF THE PROCESS OF SUBJECT-FORMATION AS AN ART - WRITING AND READING
THE AFF IS PART OF OUR AESTHETICS OF EXISTENCE - - - WHAT WE ARE DOING HERE, NOW, IS A MODEL
OF ETHICAL CONDUCT
SIMONS, Pf. Philosophy @ U of Leicester, '95 (Jon, Foucault and the Political, p. 76)
Foucault affirms an aesthetics of…. subjection in the contemporary world.
Claims to nuclear expertise and war planning are nothing more than shamanism – they are based in tenuous
assumptions and not real research. Expertise is manufactured using fantasy doccuments that are self-confirming to
silence voices of dissent – by challenging the legitimacy of this fictional nuclear reality the affirmative is a call to
abandon our reliance on “nuclear experts” in favor of public debate.
Clarke 99
[Lee Ben, sociologist at Rutgers University. He is author of “acceptable risk? Making decisions in a toxic environment
and coauthor of organizations, uncertainties and risk, Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame
Disaster]
colin gray, long-time contributor… that would be required.
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Texas Cauthen/McNeil (Critical-Anthro) [Daryl]
Gonzaga Intel
Observation I. The War on Nature
Nuclear weapons wage war upon animals and nature—their deployment violates the intrinsic worth of non-human life
Roderick Nash, Professor of History and Environmental Studies at UC-SB, 1989

[The Rights of Nature p. 211-213]
Environmental advocates have found significant …it is not fault of history.
Nuclear weapons wage war upon animals and the earth. You must reject the way nuclear war treats the land and sea
as lifeless.
Rebecca Garcia Lucas Rose, Trinity College, University of Melbourne, 2006

[text theory critique 12 (2006)]
Damage by military conflict is generally …. maybe for unforeseen generations.
We are all complicit with the American government’s war on animals and the Earth. You have a personal ethical
responsibility to reject all use of nuclear weapons
FRANCESCA CAIGATTI 2007
[http://www.allmediap.org/cyrano/?p=167] all caps in original
It is beyond my comprehension how our president …… threats to massively poison people and the Earth?
The United States federal government should ban the utilization of its nuclear forces.
Observation II. The Moral Imperative
Animal liberation is the next stage of human moral evolution. A free and peaceful society will not become possible until
we end the domination of animals.
Steven Best, Chair of Philosophy at UT-EP, no date given

[http://www.animalliberationfront.com/Philosophy/ARNewEnlightenment.htm]
During this turbulent period of social strife…. .. The message of nature is evolve or die.
We must extend rights and dignity to all non-human existence—the boundaries of our moral frontiers must expand
from humans… to animals… to life… to the Earth… and to the universe as a whole
Roderick Nash, Professor of History and Environmental Studies at UC-SB, 1989

[The Rights of Nature p. 4-10]
This book concerns the history and implications …….the American environmental movement since World War II.
Animal standpoint theory recognizes the role that animal oppression plays in racism, sexism, warfare, and genocide.
This makes animal liberation a radical challenge to all forms of hierarchy
Steven Best, Chair of Philosophy at UT-EP, 2007

[JCAS 5.2]
While a welcome advance over the anthropocentric ….Judaic moral baggage official Christianity left behind.
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You have an absolute moral obligation to vote for the plan. We cannot adopt a detached and objective attitude towards
the continued subordination of non-human life.
Steven Best, Chair of Philosophy at UT-EP, no date given

[http://www.animalliberationfront.com/Philosophy/ARNewEnlightenment.htm]
So, as for those who have burned …….but one must take it simply because it is right.”
The question is NOT whether the plan will produce good consequences. You have an ethical obligation to vote for our
policy because it affirms a moral universe in which non-human existence is treated with dignity and respect.
Eric Katz, Director of Science, Technology, and Society Program at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, 1997
[Nature as Subject p. 9-10]
Utilitarianism might be salvaged for ……is the only choice open to preservationists.
Ethical justifications for policy must come first—anthropocentric reasoning weakens the case for respecting non-
human life
J. Baird Callicott, Professor of Philosphy at UNT, 2002
[Environmental Ethics p. 548-550]
Bryan Norton, another environmental antiphilosopher, ….come to be regarded as equally unconscionable.
Animal liberation does not require us to prevent suffering—only that we respect the dignity of non-humans
Angus Taylor, philosophy at the University of Victoria, 2002
[Land Value Community p. 230-231]
The rights version of animal liberation, ……. or by cancer, or by a hungry cougar, or by a knifewielding madman.
We must tackle specieism head-on
Katherine Perdlo, PhD, 2007

[Journal of Critical Animal Studies 5.1]
Animal rights campaigners disagree as to whether empirical arguments…. or governments’ aggressive protection of
animal-abusing industries.
Observation III: Evolve or Die
Nietzsche writes…
[http://www.scribd.com/doc/6903256/Friedrich-W-Nietzsche-On-truth-and-lie]
In some remote corner of the universe,….focused form all sides on his actions and thoughts.
The threat of nuclear destruction challenges us to overcome speciesism. You must take the next step in moral
evolution, embracing your part in a cosmic dance going back billions of years.
Sneed, 1995 (John, “Beyond Anthropocentrism”, online)
"Anthropocentrism" or "homocentrism" means human chauvinism…… and in harmony with life again
This evolutionary dance is often catastrophic. At least five times in the past half billion years, the Earth cleared away
most of its existing life. And after fifty thousand years of human ascendancy, we are mid-way through the sixth mass
extinction event.
Foreman 2004, (Dave, Co-founder of Earth First!, ‘6th great extinction coming’)
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http://www.rewilding.org/thesixthgreatextinction.htm
"Soon a millennium will end. With it will pass … exterminating only individual species, but “entire higher taxa.”
Do not despair over the inevitability of extinction, but instead use this moment to initiate a consciousness shift towards
the interconnectedness of existence.
Richard Epstein, Laboratory of Computational Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, 2009
[with Y. Zhao Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 52:1, Winter 2009]
The end of the human race is …. in minimizing the eventual cumulative burden of human suffering.
Werner Krieglstein no date given

Werner Josef Krieglstein, Ph.D. (October 31, 1941), a Fulbright Scholar and University of Chicago fellow,[1] is an
award winning[2] and internationally recognized scholar, director and actor. Krieglstein is the founder of a neo-
Nietzschean philosophical school called Transcendental Perspectivism. Krieglstein's "philosophy of compassion"[3]
has been the subject of symposium lectures at many prominent conferences including the recent UNESCO section of
the World Congress for Philosophy] conference in Seoul Korea (August, 2008),[4] the ISAIL "Fields of Conflict-Fields of
Wisdom": 4th International Congress in Wuerzburg, Germany (May, 2008),[5] the Meeting of the American
Philosophical Association in Washington D.C.(Symposium Chair: Sept. 2006),[6] and the ISUD Fourth World
Conference of the International Society for Universal Dialogue (Summer, 2001),[1] among many others.
[http://papers.isud.org/files/Kreiglstein_Werner.doc.]
In my paper I will suggest that, as Nietzsche demanded…… Zarathustra’s vision would finally become reality.
Consequentialist analysis is impossible—especially in a non-speciesist context

Nicholas Agar, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy at Victoria University, 2001
[Life’s Intrinsic Value p. 155-157]
According to consequentialists, the consequences…… Decision-making paralysis looms
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Texas-Dallas Leach/Takeda (Critical-Dr. Seuss) [Jay]
Updated 1AC
*(Changes made to previous version of the 1AC were to plan text and the last two cards of the advantage - otherwise
it's all the same.)
We begin this discussion of nuclear weapons with the reading of a familiar childhood artifact which acts as a metaphor
for the contemporary problem of nuclear weapons. This is from Dr. Seuss’s The Butter Battle Book, originally
published in 1984…
[Theodore Seuss Geisel, The Butter Battle Book, Random House, 1984, available online:
http://www.angelfire.com/tn2/minsrecipes/ChildrensCookBookNook/ButterBattle.htm]
On the last day of summer,

Ten hours before fall,
…
“Be patient,” said Grandpa.
“We’ll see. We will see…”
Like the boys in the back room in the Butter Battle, nuclear discourse in the United States is founded on the imperialist
urge to dominate. This nuclear imperialism is rooted in the technostrategic discourse whose homogenizing view leads
to the destruction of difference and legitimates exploitation. This view marginalizes alternative forms of knowing and
informs the entirety of American culture. The debate community is part and parcel with this system of exclusion as
debate arguments and research practices create a false sense of omnipotence about global politics – this vision is
predicated on a uniquely western vantage point that continues the suppression of difference
Kato, Department of Political Science Univ. of Hawaii, 93
(Masahide, “Nuclear Globalism: Traversing Rockets, Satellites and Nuclear War via the Strategic Gaze” Alternatives
18)
As I have argued, the objectification of Earth from the absolute…discourse, recapture the classic teleological narrative
of the linear "progression" of capitalism.
Unraveling technostrategic discourse is vital not only to resist the closing of political discourse and the extermination of
the periphery, but also to reformulating debate and debate research practice. We must resist both policy experts’
narrowing of global space and time and the debate community’s neautralization of space space through the
technosubjectivization of the globe which is predicated on a belief in western omnipotence
Kato, Department of Political Science Univ. of Hawaii, 93 (Masahide, “Nuclear Globalism: Traversing Rockets,
Satellites and Nuclear War via the Strategic Gaze” Alternatives 18)
Frederic Jameson's proposed formula to cope…recreating space against the global integration of capital.55
The securitization nuclear policy seeps into all aspects of life through deterrence, manifesting as a total warfare in
which all knowledge is colonized by war preparedness. Technical expertise and weapons modernization only magnify
the problem, because they require increasingly advanced and destructive technology, which in turn requires greater
militarization of thought and the scientific sector
Mann 96 (Paul, Department of English @ Pomona College, “The Nine Grounds of Intellectual Warfare,” Postmodern
Culture, Volume 6, Number 2, January 1996, Project Muse)
It is commonplace to reduce intellectual production to economic terms. …have become the ground and stakes of
bloody wars.10
Advocacy Text:
From here you might ask,

As may be your task,
So what now? What’s the plan?
Shouldn’t we do whatever we can?
There’s one road to take, we can make our own road,
But like all thinkers, we must say it in code:
The United States federal government, or the Yooks we might say,
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Should reduce its reliance on Big-Boy Boomeroos this day

By reducing the number of its Big-Boy Boomeroos,
And/or whatever we happen to choose
Perhaps by restricting, and perhaps by reducing
The roles and/or missions of our Big-Boy Boomeroo arsenal.
Think hard, for the question’s quite germinal

After all, at the end of the day, who can say?
“Who’s gonna drop it?
Will you… Or will he…?
“Be patient,” said Grandpa. “We’ll see.
We will see…”
Imagining a different world is the key prerequisite to being able to effectively change it – Suess’s permissive language
and nonsense images disrupt containment policies and Cold War paranoia by using imagination to break through
dominant systems of language and knowledge.
Nel 99 (Philip, PhD @ Vanderbilt, Prof @ Kansas State, “Dada Knows Best: Growing up "Surreal" with Dr. Seuss,”
Children's Literature, Volume 27, 1999, pgs. 150-184, PM)
Given Seuss's challenges to common sense,…wrote in a letter to Seuss, "Dr. Seuss, you have an imagination with a
long tail" (Cott 18).
This ability to imagine a happy ending in spite of an uncertain future is critical to The Butter Battle’s questioning the
logic of mutually assured destruction. Only by using absurdity to reveal the irrationality of existing nuclear policies can
we encourage readers to create new solutions to the problem of nuclear arms
Nel 99 (Philip, PhD @ Vanderbilt, Prof @ Kansas State, “Dada Knows Best: Growing up "Surreal" with Dr. Seuss,”
Children's Literature, Volume 27, 1999, pgs. 150-184, PM)
Although the Times reviewer was correct in saying that The Butter Battle…using their imaginations as a source of
strength.
We don’t need a concrete political counter-proposal to the status quo – that form of resistance is empirically ineffective
in the context of nuclear policy. Instead, we must expose the existing order as the big joke it really is – we must lighten
the mood, and blur the lines between the real and unreal, to puncture the balloon of status quo politics.
Chaloupka 92 (William, Professor of Political Science @ U of Montana, Knowing Nukes, 1992, pgs. 133-135)
Even knowing when that last lecture will be is a problem. N…thoroughly problematic. We enter the era of the puzzle.
@ GSU
Aff Disclosure
We begin this discussion of nuclear weapons with the reading of a familiar childhood artifact which acts as a metaphor
for the contemporary problem of nuclear weapons. This is from Dr. Seuss’s The Butter Battle Book, originally
published in 1984…
[Theodore Seuss Geisel, The Butter Battle Book, Random House, 1984, available online:
http://www.angelfire.com/tn2/minsrecipes/ChildrensCookBookNook/ButterBattle.htm]
On the last day of summer,

Ten hours before fall,
…
“Be patient,” said Grandpa.
“We’ll see. We will see…”
Like the world Dr. Suess creates in the Butter Battle, the ending of the nuclear age is still open, but also loaded.
Although a nuclear shoot-out has not yet occurred, it hangs over us as an ever-present possibility. As long as nuclear
weapons remain a part of our security policy, they will pose a threat to human survival and the earth’s ecosystem –
reconceptualizing our relationship to nuclear weapons and to warfare is key to undermining the social systems that
perpetuate the risk of nuclear war
Lifton & Falk ’82 [Richard, Professor of Psychology @ City University in NY, Jay, Professor of Politics at Princeton,
The Indefensible Weapons.]
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If moderate postures (that is, as a weaponry of ultimate recourse …prospect of a major military defeat.
And, these social systems are propped up by strategic nuclear discourse and the securitizing ideology of deterrence,
creating a worldview that makes nuclear extinction inevitable.
Hilgartner, Bell and O'Connor ‘82
[Stephen, Associate Professor and Chair of Science & Technology Studies @ Cornell, Richard C, Rory, Nukespeak:
Nuclear Language, Visions and Mindset, 1982 p 209]
The world of nuclear warfare…all the hostages will be destroyed.
This securitization seeps into all aspects of life through deterrence, manifesting as a total warfare in which all
knowledge is colonized by war preparedness. Technical expertise and weapons modernization only magnify the
problem, because they require increasingly advanced and destructive technology, which in turn requires greater
militarization of the scientific sector
Mann 96
[Paul, Department of English @ Pomona College, “The Nine Grounds of Intellectual Warfare,” Postmodern Culture,
Volume 6, Number 2, January 1996, Project Muse]
It is commonplace to reduce intellectual production to economic terms…become the ground and stakes of bloody
wars.10
Plan Text/Advocacy Statement:
From here you might ask,
As may be your task,
So what now? What’s the plan?
Shouldn’t we do whatever we can?
There’s one road to take, we can make our own road,
But like all thinkers, we must say it in code:
The United States federal government, or the Yooks we might say,
Should reduce its reliance on nuclear weapons this day
By reducing the number of its Big-Boy Boomeroos,
And/or whatever we happen to choose
Perhaps by restricting, and perhaps by reducing
The roles and/or missions of our Big-Boy Boomeroo arsenal.
Think hard, for the question’s quite germinal
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After all, at the end of the day, who can say?
“Who’s gonna drop it?
Will you… Or will he…?

“Be patient,” said Grandpa. “We’ll see.
We will see…”
Imagining a different world is the key prerequisite to being able to effectively change it – Suess’s permissive language
and nonsense images disrupt containment policies and Cold War paranoia by using imagination to break through
dominant systems of language and knowledge.
Nel 99
[Philip, PhD @ Vanderbilt, Prof @ Kansas State, “Dada Knows Best: Growing up "Surreal" with Dr. Seuss,” Children's
Literature, Volume 27, 1999, pgs. 150-184 ]
Given Seuss's challenges to common sense,… "Dr. Seuss, you have an imagination with a long tail" (Cott 18).
This ability to imagine a happy ending in spite of an uncertain future is critical to The Butter Battle’s questioning the
logic of mutually assured destruction. Only by using absurdity to reveal the irrationality of existing nuclear policies can
we encourage readers to create new solutions to the problem of nuclear arms
Nel 99
[Philip, PhD @ Vanderbilt, Prof @ Kansas State, “Dada Knows Best: Growing up "Surreal" with Dr. Seuss,” Children's
Literature, Volume 27, 1999, pgs. 150-184 ]
Although the Times reviewer was correct in saying…using their imaginations as a source of strength.
We don’t need a concrete political counter-proposal to the status quo – that form of resistance is empirically ineffective
in the context of nuclear policy. Instead, we must expose the existing order as the big joke it really is – we must lighten
the mood, and blur the lines between the real and unreal, to puncture the balloon of status quo politics.
Chaloupka 92 [William, Knowing Nukes, 1992, pgs. 133-135]
Even knowing when that last lecture will be is a problem…seem thoroughly problematic. We enter the era of the
puzzle.
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Texas-San Antonio Montee/Thomas (Critical-Queer) [Brittany]
Texas-San Antonio TM
GSU Aff Disclosure

Observation One is the Monster in the Closet...
The rhetoric of the war on terror centers on possession of weapons of mass destruction. Thes questions of who should
or should not be able to possess “high-tech” weaponry cannot be seperated from the nuclear posture of the United
States. Historically, the role of our nuclear arsenal has been the symbolic legitimization of state violence under the
guise of fighting “clean wars” while condemning the barbarity of terrorists or rogue nations who do not possess
legitimate weapons of war.
Kelly Oliver. Women as Weapons of War: Iraq, Sex, and the Media. 2007, pg 125-128
“One issue in the current 'war against terror'...realm of the monstrous and unnatural”
We are witnessing the uncanny return of monstrosity in terrorism studies. As children we were thrilled and terrified by
stories of the boogeyman who would steal our eyes in the middle of the night. Now it seems that the Southpark
nightmare of Imaginationland has come true as the image of the terrorist begins to haunt the collective American
psyche. These representations are highly sexualized through techniques of normalization and discipline in which a
heteronormative morality acts to seperate good from evil, normality from abnormality.
Jasbir K. Puar and Amit S. Rai. “Monster, Terrorist, Fag: the War on Terrorism and the Production of Docile Patriots.”
Social Text 20:3, 2002
“To begin, let us consider the monster...discourse of monstrosity in 'terrorism studies'”
The discourse of monstrosity presupposes the existence of a “normal” psyche. In this context, terrorism is the
byproduct of a sick mind – deviance that connotes a failed heterosexuality. This attempt to reduce the complexities of
culture and politics to a model of sexual perversity underwrites the history of Western modernity and colonial
subjugation.
“What all these models and theories...practices and rituals of heteronormativity.”
Observation Two is Queer and Loathing in America...
Heteronormative thought establishes an invisible center – one that is definable and sanitary, constantly producing and
reproducing standards for rationality, desireability, and superiority. This becomes the primary instrument for oppressive
power relations and the production of knowledge. Modern institutions rely upon these unspoken rules in order to
rationalize the systemic marginalization of the abnormal.
Gust A. Yep. “The Violence of Heteronormativity in Communication Studies: Notes on Injury, Healing, and Queer
World-Making.” Journal of Homosexuality. 45:2-3, September 2003
“In this passage...race, class, gender, and sexuality”
The political demand to universalize identity results in self-repression, violent assimilation and the eradication of
others.
William Connolly. Identity/Difference: Democratic Negotiations of Political Paradox. 2002, pg 176-178
“Finally, then, there is a dimension...tactics of self-modification.”
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This is not just empty theorizing. Representations that tie queerness as sexual deviancy to the monstrous figure of the
terrorist act to otherize and quarantine subjects classified as terrorists and to normalize and discipline a population
through the invocation of these monstrous figures that translates into actual violence.
“Yet again, we could interrogate...body of the normalized nation.”
Therefore, we affirm the resolution through a rearticulation of the terrorist body as an assemblage that resists
queerness-as-sexual-identity withing the dominant narrative of U.S. Nuclear exceptionalism
Observation Three is They Want to Recruit our Children...
Restricting the role of nuclear weapons demands a rethinking of identity. Wars are no longer fought solely on the
material landscape. On the symbolic level, the normalizing function of nuclear weapons confers the status of
“legitimacy” for America's “right to violence” against populations marked as enemies who lack the proper, high-tech
instruments of warfare. We need to question the moralizing rhetoric of monstrosity and sexual deviancy that justifies
state-based atrocities committed on a global scale.
Kelly Oliver. Women as Weapons of War: Iraq, Sex, and the Media. 2007, pg 128-130
“How can a few guys with box cutters...legitimate versus illegitimate violence.”
Identity, intersectionality, and traditional queer studies reflect the postmodern politics of liberal-multiculturalism that
conforms to the disciplinary apparatus of the state. The 1AC affirms queerness, not as an identiy or even anti-identity,
but as an assemblage that is spatially and temporally contingent, dismantling the representational mandates of
visibility and stability in identity politics that feed narratives of U.S. sexual exceptionalism. This is not a strategy of
“queering” human subjects, but of allowing subjects to appear in all their queerness – a method that allows for the
temporality of being as always becoming.
Jasbir K. Puar. Terrorist Assemblages: Homonationalism in Queer Times. 2007, pg 211-216
“There is no entity, no identity...becoming beyond or without being.”
The ballot acts as a point of rupture within the dominant narrative of U.S. sexual exceptionalism that demands
conformity to heteronormative institutions and practices. This is a specific strategy of criticism which should not be
excluded – attempts to define our affirmative by placing arbitrary limits on the game of debate is an extension of a
conservative strategy which produces new normativities and exceptionalisms through the mastery of the unknowable.
You should reject strategies that seperate the body from politics and instead affirma a queer praxis of assemblage that
reshapes the terrain of intersectionality.
Jasbir K. Puar. Terrorist Assemblages: Homonationalism in Queer Times. 2007, pg 221-222
“Mbembe and Spivak each articulate...perhaps even forever unknowable.”
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Towson Crossan/Kirkman (Critical) [Phil]
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Towson Evans/Morgan (Critical) [Phil]
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Towson Jackson/Murray (Critical) [Phil]
Towson JM
GSU Aff Disclosure

Na'im Akbar – Professor of Psychology at Florida State University- 1989- Paradigms Of African American Research-
Akbar Paper- - page 32-33
Unfortunately, “research” is not like the “searches” which characterized the Ancient African scholars who devoted their
scientific endeavors to the pursuit of “Truth”. ….. The models constitute the definition' of what to look for. In sociology,
the model is the underlying theory of society; in educational and psychological research, it is the underlying theory of
man or mind.
Quantitative focus = white paradigm
Another assumption of the traditional Western model or conceptualization of the normal human being that guides
research activity is the idea that what is real or knowable is material, quantifiable and directly observable. ….. "Non-
whiteness," communalism, cooperation, femininity would all be in some way viewed as deviant or at best,
nonnormative.
Khun (1970) asserts: “for a time paradigms provided model problems and solution to the community of (scientific)
practitioners.” The paradigm that has operated throughout much of the Euro-American history of social science has
been the affirmation of the normality of the male, Caucasian of European descent and his relative superiority to other
peoples. ….. The way a person frames a question determines the limits within which his answer can possibly fall.
Policy impact
The method confirms the model; then the model is perpetuated in the modalities of implementing tbe research findings.
The modalities are the ways in which the research findings are implemented. …..Denial of the African American's
humanity simply confirms the original thesis that being human means that one is necessarily a male, Caucasian of
European descent.
AA research paradigm
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Akbar Paper- - page 46
The new paradigm should offer a balance between the materialistic preoccupation of the Western or traditional
Eurocentric ….. personal 'Worldview,' his concept of' Nature,' etc., indicate what possibilities there might be that
research results may be unwittingly filtered through unsuspected or unacknowledged prejudices.
Methods of the paradigm
Racial ascription is the common denominator that is systematically woven through the international fabric of human life
on this planet. Thus, understanding the depth, ….. Rather than test children's knowledge of alien environmental
artifacts to determine intelligence, they could be tested on their knowledge of indigenous cultural artifacts.
4 tenates of the africam American research modle and why they are good
The African American model in its holistic approach encourages methodologies that look at people in a non-
fragmented way. McGee and Clark(1973) observe: The Western inability to synthesize body (material) and mind
(spiritual) has led some respected scientists to make the absurd comment that black people in America are "good" in
athletics but poor in thinking. Such scientists fail to recognize that to have a good body means that one has a good
mind and vice versa; one cannot exist without the other. If the body is poor, the mind is also, and vice versa. The
second issue of methodology is the "how" or types of research procedures that appropriately address the model. There
are four (4) general types of research which are most relevant to an African American paradigm: (1) theoretical, (2)
critique of falsification (deconstruction) research, (3) ethnographic and (4) heuristic (construction or reconstruction)
research. ….. advancing us in the light of the model of enhanced human growth described in the research model that
we described above.
Intitutions are key
Akbar Paper- - page 51
The final modality of our research ….All of these modalities provide the ultimate objective of augmenting and
institutionalizing the African American paradigm rooted in nature and respect for humankind.
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UMKC Allsup/Bonnet (Critical-Patriarchy) [Phil]
Observation One: Men and their Missiles

In the status quo discussions of nuclear weapons only focus on matters of hardware and statistics at the expense of
questions regarding the cultural assumptions that are used to justify the bombs existence – this is the product of a
patriarchal militaristic state that constantly seeks hierarchal dominance through processes of dehumanization and
otherization – this worldview see’s war as an inevitability and uses it to justify a global arms race to build bigger and
more powerful weapons – this sacrifice of the feminine locks us into a closed set of possibilities that constantly
reproduces the violence of the status quo and will only culminate in extinction
Spretnak 83
[Charlene, MA in English and American Literature from the University o0f California Berkeley, Naming the Cultural
Forces That Push Us to War, found in the book “Exposing Nuclear Phallacies,” pgs 53-61]
"Women and men can live together and can relate to other societies in any number of cultural "
AND
"unchecked terminal patriarchy will be nuclear holocaust. "
This system of patriarchy turns nuclear weapons into masculine symbols of power and likens questions of
disarmament to weakness and femininity – this has created a global hierarchy of power fueled by a militaristic drive to
eliminate insecurity by eliminating the feminine itself
SPAS 2k8
[Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society, Learn about Nuclear Weapons 2008, 2008,
http://www.laromkarnvapen.slmk.org/ENG/Dokument/Ethics/Gender%20ADVANCED.pdf]
"The final report of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission concludes “ In particular, women‟s organisations
have "
AND
"masculinity. "
The ultimate impact is extinction—the dysfunctionality of patriarchy guarantees continued violence, war, and
environmental destruction, making any impact inevitable. Only moving away from this system can create opportunities
for survival.
Karen Warren and Duane Cady, Professors of Philosophy at Macalester College and Hamline University. “Feminism
and Peace: Seeking Connections.” Hypatia. Vol. 9, Iss. 2; pg. 4 Spring 1994 Proquest
"The notion of patriarchy as a socially dysfunctional system enables feminist philosophers to "
AND
"national, and global contexts. "
In a society dominated by masculinity where males are more likely to commit violent crimes it is imperative that we
examine the relationship between gender and nuclear weapons because there is no way to predict when political loss
or national self-interest might drive leaders to use nuclear weapons and causing all-out annihilation
Russell 87
[Diane, Professor of Sociology at Mills College, Sexism, Violence, and the Nuclear Mentality, found in the book
“Exposing Nuclear Phallacies,” pgs 63-68]
"Although Freud probably didn't intend to place the entire responsibility for control over nature on men, his use of sexist
"
AND
"much greater than all other weapons that they deserve a unique analysis and response. "
Thus,
The United States federal government should permanently dismantle the United States federal government’s nuclear
arsenal.
Observation Two: Vulnerability
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The US should pursue unilateral reductions in nuclear weapons, even if it is gradual. Fears of other states reacting are
rooted in the notion that not having nuclear weapons is a sign of vulnerability and femininity. Rejecting this flawed view
of international relations is necessary to prevent the inevitable disasters that nuclear weapons bring.
Cohn and Ruddick in 2003(Carol, Director of the Consortium on Gender, Security and Human Rights, Sara, Professor
Emerita of Philosophy and Feminist Studies at Lang College of the New School for Social Research “A Feminist
Ethical Perspective on Weapons of Mass Destruction”, Boston Consortium on Gender, Security and Human Rights
Working Paper No. 104)
"Our tradition has advocated and will continue to advocate unilateral reduction in nuclear "
AND
"dream” that nuclear weapons inspire. "
Attempts to erase vulnerability and deny disorder are founded on the fantasy that the world can maintain orderliness—
they inevitably incite a violent response. We should instead be mindful of and embrace our vulnerability to violence in
order to craft more responsible political solutions that do not incite violence.
Butler in 2 (Judith, Prof. of Rhetoric and Comparative Lit at Berkley, “Precarious Life”, pg. 28-30)
"Let us return to the issue of grief, to the moments in which one undergoes something outside "
AND
"formerly was orderly. "
Retaliation makes violence inevitable—it creates a cycle of violence wherein retaliation is met with further retaliation.
This increases the likelihood of violence as a reaction to conflict and results in masculine domination. The plan’s
suspension of response is an act of vulnerability—this creates an international politics of mutual understanding and
nonviolence.
Butler in 3 (Judith, prof at Berkley, Interview with The Believer Magazine, May,
http://www.believermag.com/issues/200305/?read=interview_butler)
"JS: If revenge becomes cyclical because one strike leads to another ad infinitum, one way to stop "
AND
"quickly, didn’t we? "
Observation Three: Ethics

This development of nuclear weaponry exacts violence against entire populations especially women. Nuclear
development also genders nuclear weapons fetishizing them and turning all ethical questioning into a feminine
characteristic that should be rejected in exchange for the masculine ideas of rationality.
Cohn and Ruddick in 2003
(Carol, Director of the Consortium on Gender, Security and Human Rights, Sara, Professor Emerita of Philosophy and
Feminist Studies at Lang College of the New School for Social Research “A Feminist Ethical Perspective on Weapons
of Mass Destruction”, Boston Consortium on Gender, Security and Human Rights Working Paper No. 104)
"One of the constitutive positions of anti-war feminism is that in thinking about weapons and wars, we must "
AND
"peace and morality, can have disastrous consequences for both men and women.34 "
You have an ethical duty to reject nuclear weapons and the patriarchal system that harbors them – they plot the
deaths of hundreds of millions of people and hold the whole world hostage to their destructive potential – all other
concerns should be viewed secondary to the elimination of nuclear weapons
Russell 87
[Diane, Professor of Sociology at Mills College, Sexism, Violence, and the Nuclear Mentality, found in the book
“Exposing Nuclear Phallacies,” pgs 69-74]
"Nuclear war is the ultimate act of violence. Since men in patriarchal cultures have been and "
AND
"we must rid ourselves of the other. "
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UMKC Beatty/Sadowski (Critical-Patriarchy) [Phil]
Status quo possession of nuclear weaponry exacts violence upon entire populations—especially women. Nuclear
development also genders nuclear weapons, fetishizing them and turning all ethical questioning into a feminine
characteristic that should be rejected in exchange for the masculine ideas of “rationality.”
Cohn and Ruddick in 3 (Carol, Director of the Consortium on Gender, Security and Human Rights, Sara, Professor
One of the constitutive...men and women.
And, disarmament is rejected in the status quo because it’s regarded as feminine and weak—this system of patriarchy
turns nuclear weapons into masculine symbols of power and domination. This has created a global hierarchy of power
fueled by a militaristic drive to eliminate insecurity by eliminating the feminine itself.
SPAS 8 [Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society, Learn about Nuclear Weapons 2008, 2008,
http://www.laromkarnvapen.slmk.org/ENG/Dokument/Ethics/Gender%20ADVANCED.pdf]
The final report...lacking in masculinity.
And, techno-strategic discourse surrounding weapons is used to only consider the rational aspects of their existence
and use. This is a product of gender coding wherein “masculine” ideals of rationality are used as a means to silence
“feminine’ objections concerning the violence that these calculations produce.
Cohn, Hill, and Ruddick in 5 (Carol, Director of the Boston Consortium on Gender, Security and Human Rights,
Felicity, Greenpeace International Political Adviser on Nuclear and Disarmament Issues, former Peace & Security
Advisor to UNIFEM's Governance Peace and Security team, Sara, Professor Emerita of Philosophy and Feminist
Studies at Lang College of the New School for Social Research, “The Relevance of Gender for Eliminating Weapons
of Mass Destruction”, Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, Adapted from a presentation on June 12, 2005)
Why did he feel that way?...strategic plans and WMD.
And, deterrence theory is a myth. It is used to re-inscribes the masculine drive for dominance by prioritizing values of
“military necessity” and “defense” over so-called feminine concerns for human life—this justifies massive arms
buildups.
A so-called “realist”...and arms racing.
And, traditional conceptions of security assume an anarchic system of international relations characterized by
stereotypes of threatening femininity. This worldview sees war as inevitable, generating self-fulfilling expectations
regarding conflict, foreclosing real explanations of it. This impedes our understanding of the structural causes of
violence, forms of violence which are more life threatening than inter-state conflicts.
Peterson in 2K (V Spike, Associate Professor of Political Science @ Arizona, SAIS Review, 20.2, rereading public and
private: the dichotomy that is not one, project muse)
Next I undertake...violence, and security.
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The ultimate impact is extinction—the dysfunctionality of patriarchy guarantees continued violence, war, and
environmental destruction, making any impact inevitable. Only moving away from this system can create opportunities
for survival.
Warren & Cady in 94 (Karen and Duane, Professors of Philosophy at Macalester College and Hamline University.
“Feminism and Peace: Seeking Connections.” Hypatia. Vol. 9, Iss. 2; pg. 4 Spring, Proquest)
The notion of patriarchy...national, and global contexts.
And, culture has programmed itself for self-destruction—extinction is inevitable in a world where nuclear weapons
exist.
Ross in 3 (Larry- Founder of NZ Nuclear-Free Peacemaking Association, “RACING TOWARD EXTINCTION”, Dec 10,
http://nuclearfree.lynx.co.nz/racing.htm)
We have greatly changed...escalation would follow.
Thus,
The United States federal government should reduce the United States federal government’s nuclear arsenal to zero.
And, the United States should embrace a position of vulnerability in pursuing a policy of disarmament—relying on
nuclear weapons forecloses non-violent modes of conflict resolution and actually increases the likelihood of dangerous
conflict. Fear of violence in the wake of disarmament is rooted in masculine conceptions of reality which seek
domination.
Our tradition has ... nuclear weapons inspire.
And, nuclear weapons represent the ultimate endpoint of realist international relations and US security politics—they
are a form of protection against the anarchic international system and a move to assert the United States’
invulnerability. They have instead made us more vulnerable—we must instead reject this form of security politics and
embrace our globally shared position of vulnerability.
Rolfsen in 8 (Cdr. Sen. Gr. Raag Rolfsen, Yale Center For Faith and Culture, Breakout Session, “The Significance of
Vulnerability in a Time of Crisis” Remarks: Sarah Smith Memorial Conferences 2008: “Are we safe yet?”)
The aim of this paper... calculation and technology.
And, attempts to erase vulnerability and deny disorder are founded on the fantasy that the world can maintain
orderliness—they inevitably incite a violent response. We should instead embrace our vulnerability to violence in order
to craft more responsible political solutions that do not create violence.
Let us return to... formerly was orderly.
And, denying vulnerability makes violence inevitable. The plan’s suspension of response is an act of vulnerability
which creates an international politics of mutual understanding and nonviolence.
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Butler in 3 (Judith, prof at Berkley, Interview with The Believer Magazine, May,
http://www.believermag.com/issues/200305/?read=interview_butler)
JS: If revenge becomes cyclical...quickly, didn’t we?
Finally, we must be willing to accept the loss of American ‘superiority’—this allows us to create new international ties
that can reformulate politics by reconstituting the American subject in a position of vulnerability
I condemn on several..."other to" itself.
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Weber State Dawson/Nikolopoulos (Critical-God) [Mark]
Affirmative
Observation one, the nuclear heresy

First, discussion surrounding nuclear weapons are nothing short of apocalyptic humanism. This obsession with out
survival has forced us to ignore what makes our lives and deaths worthwhile and such a secular age is doomed to
wage wars even more dangerous than the ones before.
Hauerwaus 85 (against the nations, pp. 132-133)
And, this survival centered attitutde has given birth to a new religion that worships the bomb. This discussion means
we must engage in talks about God because the boundaries of our mortality have been met which demands a
remapping of our transcendent vision. If mankind is truly approach the problems created by nuclear weapons we must
transform the current secular model into a religious one renouncing nuclear arms.
Chapman in 85 (G. Clarke, Speaking of God in a nuclear age, Anglican Theological Journal, SUmmer 1991)
It is our obsession with the bomb and its destruction that renders us blind to the destruction going on all around us,
Violence takes place all over the world, but is hidden by the big apocalypse.
Plate and Linafelt in 2003 (Brent and Todd, "Seeing Beyond the End of the World" Journal of religion and Film, APril,
2003, unomaha.edu/`jrf/Vol7No1/seebeyond)
The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size and/or reduce and restrict the role of its
nuclear weapons arsenal by disarming its entire nuclear weapons arsenal.
Plan
Observation two the theological imperative:
IF we are to understand nuclear weapons must expose their mythology. Science is not neutral. Existence of weapons
guarantees violence only disarm =s hope.
Stringfellow in 82 (William, Keeper of the Word, pp. 103-113
Observation three speaking the word.
Everyday language will not suffice, it is utilitarian. Speaking requires that we theology. Life and our relationship with it
is meaning leass without the appositional power of theology
Wentz in 91 (Richard, FIrst THings, February 1991)
Both Eschatological visions of the end and nuclear weapons are created by language and cannot be imagined. THey
reveal that every apocalypse is survivable. THis making present the survivors allows a reimagination and embrace of
eschatological hope.
Plate and Linafelt in 2003
Last, the discourse of everyday language is nihilism. It is only imminent and epistemic which means life can have no
value.
Cunningham in 2002 (Conor, Geneology of Nihilism, pp. 174-175)
Negative
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West Georgia Boykin/Schultz (Critical) [Logan]
West Georgia BoSc
LANL aff
Chapter One- The world we know

Policy debate has become exclusivy oriented around the bomb and nuclear war—everything always already has issue
specific uniqueness to end up in the ever present threat of nuclear apocalypse. September 11th escalated this
discourse and mobilized it around the terrorist threat to our super power status all while the nuclear bomb a banal
everpresent condition boring ass fact of life- we have been duped inot normalizing national security.
Masco 06 (Joseph, Nuclear Boderlands: the Manhattan project in post-cold war new mexico pg 328-31
“a weapon has been developed that is potentially…and ambiguities within American military technoscientific self-
fashining.”
Our rush to accumulate the most specific the widest array, oh, the biggest impact is debate fetishizing the bomb, don’t
get it twisted I want a CSIS internship as bad as my idol Jon Warden, but our community is not alone—we are one
example of the American culture that organizes the bomb as a central figure of political life.
“While the nuclear phantasmagoria…both imagined and material risk.”
Nuclear weapons are the national fetish par excellence- the international hierarchy of nation states is mediated through
possession of a weapon designed to prevent its own use, here the bomb is an impassioned object linking the
government, military, and scientific communities in the projection of national culture.
“to describe nuclear weapons as the national fetish…political, industrial, academiuc, and scientific relationships in
American society”
The nuclear uncanny always retursn in repression here national building, legitmation of violence and genocide become
the toxic politics ties to race and class.
Masco 06 (Joseph, Nuclear Boderlands: the Manhattan project in post-cold war new mexico pg 34
“within the us nuclear complex…post cold war anxiety”
The US is the country of the bomb- radioactive nation building has left us anesthetized to the fact that the US is the
most bombed country in the world, all Americans participate in the nuclear complex, our bodies carry radiation from the
fall out of thousands of above ground tests. There have already been 400,000 cancer deaths from the nuclear colonial
project that targets minority communities for the most dangers experiments – we must shake the nuclear fetish.
Masco 06 p 24-7
“The strange new intimacy of life…and with them, new psychosocial realities.”
The very logic of nuclear weapons is mad- we can see the alienation and blinding our senses to violence of the nuclear
ages in operation upshot knothole
Maco 06 (Joseph, Nuclear Boderlands: the Manhattan project in post-cold war new mexico pg 8-11
“nuclear weapons, however, quickly became note merely…quite meticulously, blinded.”
Chapter Two- a new , old, history

We cannot conitue limitg nuclear politics to the realm of international relations—an ethnographic account of the varied
experiences of us citizens callenges the idea of a stable national subject, unmooring the psycho social affects of
nuclear nationalism, wrapped in national secirty and terrorist discourse- this is an act of resistance against apocalyptic
violence currently normalized in american life
To be clear, the roll of the ballot is to write a new history of the nuclear age focusing on the tactile, individual, local
experiences in the nuclear complex
"In a post-Cold War world, then, we might usefully interrogate ... American power in the twenty-first century."
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The Manhattan Project provides a uniqe site for exploring the "state of emergency" which gets everyday life caught up
in normalizing MAD politics and where governmentality achieves producing instruments of apocalypse in order to stop
it
"The historical process that registers each new "catastrophic technology" ... in order to even begin to answer such
questions?"
Whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, we are all implicated in the violence perpetuated by the nuclear weapons
complex. Instead of giving into the ultimately hollow impulse to "change the world," you should use the ballot as a
means of initiating a change in yourself. Only by centering our interrogations at the level of our lived experience can
we make possible modes of relating to each other which do not fall back into the pattern of violent ordering
Jayan Nayar 99 (9 Transnat'l L. & Contemp. Probs. 599)
"Despite the fixation of the beneficiaries of ordered worlds ... the essential message of Mahatmas."
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 2 (Aff vs. Whitman)
Depleted Uranium
PLAN - The USFG should cease all use of depleted uranium in its nuclear arsenal missions. Any future usage should
be restricted until its safety and legality can be conclusively proven by systematic independent research. We can
clarify.
1ac
no tag: card says the army has been testing DU weapons - they are deadly and the army knows it
Dan Fahey 1997 - "Swords to Plowshares" 3-28-97 - nuclearfiles.org
kw - the army and DU weapons manufacturers spent two decades testing --> as a result of their exposure
following the gulf war, attempts to study DU missions were rebuffed by deceptive DOD practices
Dan Fahey - Depleted Uranium Weapons and International Law 08 - pg 66-67
kw - the most comprehensive study of humans --> were enrolled in the study
A proposal to restrict and reduce this use of the arseanl was rejected
Tod Ensign 99 - Depleted Uranium Education Project - Metal of Dishonor: How the Pentagon Radiates soldiers and
civilians with DU weapons"
p. 75
kw - the PAC reported little success with its effort --> weapons will fade away
as a result, DU missions continue

ICBUW - international coalition to ban uranium weapons - 7-17-09 - www.bandepleteduranium.org/en/i/77.html
kw - governments have often intitially denied using DU --> contaomination virtually impossible
Contention 2 - the trojan horse of nuke war

US military lies to cover up DU use and abuse
dinyar Godrej 07 - New Internationist - www.newint.org/features/2007/11/01/keynote
kw - the answers official bodies have given to valid questions about DU --> rising nearly tenfold in some places
AND - DU harms will only get worse w/ future use

Vishnu Bhagwat 2-29-04 - "silent WMD's: effects of depleted uranium - online
kw - the induction of DU weapons in 1991 in Iraq, the radio-active trash --> on mistaken Intelligence reports
The pentagon's DU policy is one of unfettered use of its nuclear weapons arsenal
Sara Flounders - Metal of Dishonor: How the Pentagon Radiates soldiers and civilians with DU weapons. p. 8-10
kw - the gulf war showed that those countries that already held nuclear monopolies --> urgent need for an independent
inquiry.
US policy on DU is grounded in deception and propoganda

Dinyar Godrej 07 "Toxic Souvenirs" - New Internationalist November - issue 406
kw - contamination hangs around depleted uranium (DU) --> don't scupper their use
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Military industrial complex is self-reinforcing

Lenora Foerstel 99 - Metal of Dishonor - cite above - p. 63
kw the relationship between corporations, the Pentagon and the news media --> campuses and in the public sphere
cover up masks nuke warfare

Anne Gut & Vitale Bruno 03 - Depleted UraniuM: Deadly, Dangerous, and Indiscriminate - p. 12-13
kw - since may 2002, when the original edition of this book appeared in French --> to a kind of nuclear war
this mentality places us all in jeopardy

AMy Worthington 04 - "Chemtrails and Terror int he Age of Nuclear War" june 3rd
kw - the sociopaths who brazenly pervent skies, climate and weather --> we are all in mortal jeopardy
each round of DU is an additional nail int he collective coffin of Afghanistan

Mohammed Miraki 03 - "The silent genocide from America" - online
kw - the perpetuation of the perpetual death in AFghanistan continues with the passage of each day --> collective
coffin of the AFghan people
DU is painfully killing victims and threatnes to destroy all life on the planet
Leuren Moret 07 - "Depleted Uranium: A Scientific Perspective." The Lone Star Ironoclast 7-21
kw - it remobilizes all the radiation, but those are the larger chunks --> it effects everything
C3 - solvency
honesty is the best policy to challenge this DU slaughtergate
Vincent Guarisco 03 - "Axis of Logic" - democraticundgeround - 10/20/03
kw - welcome to the 21st century uranium slaughtergate, an age-old curse --> aimed at causing unnecessary suffering
restrictions needed
Avril McDonald - Depleted Uranium Weapons and INternational Law - p. 283 -
kw - the question of the legality of a weapon as such --> suffering and proporionality
precautionary approach solves best

Avril McDonald - again -
kw - the cornerstron of a precautionary approach to DU weapons must be systematic --> particularly children, in
different ways
and a moratorium provids immediate relief via reduction

Avril McDonald 8 - again p. 316
kw - the ultimate in precaution would be the adoption of a moratorium on the use of DU --> commitment to a
moratorium on DU use
precautionary obligations solve

Theo Boutruches & Jann K. Kleffner 08 - Depleted Uranium Weapons and International Law - - no page number
kw - the importance of precautionary measures in IHL is twofold --> will use another means of warfare
independent review is the crucial restriction

Avril McDonald - 08 again - p. 306-307
kw - given that new information about the effects of a weapon can come --> investigate the lawfulness of weapons
2AC Topicality Reduce Missions
* w/m – 1ac proves DU key to ongoing mil ops

* neg int begs Q on nuclear weapons – buys into pentagon’s policy that hides reality of DU as part of the arsenal
* Lit checks – military acknowledges DU missions
Annd Gut and Vitale Bruno 2003, Depleted Uranium: Deadly, Dangerous, and Indiscriminate, p. 24
“The use of DU Weaponry…DU ammunition was used.”
* C/I – reduce means to lessen in number, restrict refers to codification of the reduction
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Plan meets – standards used to evaluate DU missions are restricting

Avril McDonald, 2008, Depleted Uranium Weapons and international Law, p. 286
“It is therefore…alternatives are available.”
Aff use is same as NFU – NFU plans condition usage – weapons can only be used after x occurs – our plan is the
same – review process as a precondition is regulation as restriction
Avril McDonald, 2008, Depleted Uranium Weapons and international Law, p. 305-6
“An important legal element of a…moratorium or ban on DU use.”
2ac Healthcare
Dems support the plan
Congress Daily, 8/4/09
“Sen. Byron Dorgan…called the situation “appaling.””
2AC Politics
Dem’s key to HC
John Dickerson, www.slate.com/id/2230817, 9/29
“So liberals who helped…from within his own party.”
DU weapons are politically untenable

Mike Hughlett, 2001, www.pioneerplanet.com/secen-days/tod/business/docs/027289.htm
“There’s just one potential problem…untenable weapon,” he said.”
DU unpopularity is growing
Same cite
“As alliant has been…for $180 million.)”
PresCap not significant

Jon R. Bond and Richard Fleisher, the president in legislation p. 223, 1996
“Neustadt is correct that weak…of success or failure”
2ac on case – DU Bad
2AC Case Cards
DOD studies prove cancer dangers

Bill Griffin, the new nuclear danger, www.peacehost.net/pacifistnation/caldicottanddu.htm
“At the same time…eventually causing lung cancers”
DU harms spread globally – worse than 20th century testing

Leuren Moret – “Depleted Uranium: A scientific perspective”
Kw – is there a danger of depleted uranium, being used in weaponry pollution with this radiation
DU risks omnicide
Moret, Leuren – “Depleted uranium: the Trojan horse of nuclear war.” World Affairs: The journal of international issues.
July
Kw – the use of depleted uranium weaponry by the United States new word to describe it: omnicide
GSU Aff Disclosure

WEST GEORGIA BS
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially limit use of its nuclear weapons arsenal by
renouncing launch on warning, ensuring that retaliation would not take place without confirmation of a nuclear
detonation.
Contention One Get Low
First is the Mentality
Currently the United States is on a Launch on Warning status that is rooted in Cold War calculations
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Rosenbaum 9
Ron, “Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama’s Dream of Zero?” Aug 21, http://www.slate.com/id/2225817/pagenum/all/
In his campaign, Obama… launch on warning.
And this mentality of Launch on Warning developed as a component of the system of Mutually Assured Destruction.
Collapse of the Soviet Union did not change these systems, and even with recent reductions there are still enough
weapons to destroy human civilization
Corcoran 9
Ed, Ph.D., serves as a Senior Fellow on national security issues at GlobalSecurity.org., Frmr. Strategic Analyst at the
US Army War College where he chaired studies for the Office of the Deputy Chief of Operations and member of the
National Advisory Board for the Alsos Digital Library for Nuclear Issues, we win the qualification game, April 21,
http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090421301-strategic-nuclear-targets.htm
That brings us to Russia… a total nuclear exchange.
The US system of hair trigger alert is a relic of the cold war that is perpetuated by the lack of reporting journalism gives
it. This system risks extinction
Mintz 5
Morton, covered the Supreme Court for The Washington Post from 1964 to 1965 and again from 1977 to 1980. He is
also a former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism, Nov/Dec, Columbia Journalism Review Vol 44, Iss. 4
The reporting that allows… Nunn nor Habiger.
Second is the Mechanics of Low

The process whereby LOW as operational doctrine causes time crunches which create stress and makes mistakes
likely
Blair 99
Interview Dr. Bruce Blair, September 13, 1999 ADM's Mark Sugg interviews the Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy
Studies at the Brookings Institution, for "Innovation in Arms Control: De-Alerting",
http://www.cdi.org/adm/1316/Blair.html
BLAIR: Well, launch… at a moment's notice.
The confidence and reports of technology being “perfect” is exactly the reason why mistaken launch is more probable
Podvig 5
Pavel PhD CISAC Research Associate and Acting Associate Director for Research Reducing the Risk of Accidental
Launch: A Case for Unilateral Action,
http://cisac.stanford.edu/news/reducing_the_risk_of_accidental_launch_a_case_for_unilateral_action_20050908/
History shows that… regardless of reciprocity.
Contention Two Nukes are Bad

Scenario One is A Weapon
One nuclear weapon would kill over 6 million, jack the environment, and disrupt urbanized areas
Forrow 4
Forrow et al, 2004. Accidental Nuclear War — A Post–Cold War Assessment. The New England Journal of Medicine.
MD
We assume that eight…
Scenario two is “limited nuclear war”

A limited nuclear would kill millions and escalate to counterforce strikes
Fetter 90
Steve, member of the U of Maryland faculty since 1988, serving as dean from 2005 to 2009, He is currently on leave
as Assistant Director in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy,
http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/1990-CSIA-NuclearPrimer.pdf
The “limited” war.. numbers of Soviet citizens.
Scenario 3 is escalation
Accidental launch of nuclear weapons is no small thing – Even limited escalation sets the stage to eradicate all
complex life
Starr 8
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Steven, Scientists for Global Responsibility, Autumn, SGR Newsletter, issue 36,
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/nucleardarkness/files/high-
General knowledge of… nuclear environmental treaty.
Contention 3 The Risk of Mistaken Launches

Accidental war is more likely than intentional war
Phillips 3
Alan, Physicians for Global Survival , An Introduction to No Launch on Warning
An interview with Dr. Alan Phillips in Hamilton, Ontario, June, http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm
At the present time… hasn't happened already.
Massive attacks are not possible neither side has a mutual interest in annihilating each other
Rosenbaum 8
Ron, Acclaimed Journalist Of The New Yorker, The New York Times Magazine, The Atlantic, Harper’s Magazine,
Vanity Fair, Esquire And Slate “A Real Nuclear Option For The Nominees Averting "Inadvertent" War In Two Easy
Steps”, May 9, 2008, Http:Www.Slate.Com/Id/2191104/Pagenum/All/
In Phase 1, he recommends… instant "inadvertent" use?
The only plausible scenario of a false attack is one based on a false warning – other causalities such as bad tech is
unwarranted
Abrams 98
Herbert L. Abrams - Faculty Member at CISAC, Accidental Nuclear War: A Post-Cold War Assessment Published by
New England Journal of Medicine, 1998,
http://fsi.stanford.edu/publications/accidental_nuclear_war_a_postcold_war_assessment/
A particular danger stems… Russian launch-on-warning protocols.
Even if war occurs having posture of hair trigger is worse because is worse because it degrades the rationality of
nuclear decision making
NAS 7
Executive Summary of the National Academy of Sciences Report, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons
Policyhttp:www.armscontrol.org/act/1997_05/nas
"The nuclear command systems… hair-trigger is clear."
Contention Four Solvency

A policy of no launch on warning would solve the risk of accidental war, and is effective even if it isn’t reciprocated
Phillips 02
Alan, graduated with honours in physics at Cambridge University in 1941. He spent the rest of World War II doing
radar research for the British Army. After the war he qualified in medicine at Edinburgh University and specialized in
the treatment of cancer by radiation. He retired in 1984. His retirement activities have included the study of nuclear
armaments and the risks of accidental nuclear war., May, No Launch on Warning,
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/05/00_phillips_no-launch.htm
To change from L-o-W… the change has been made.
A policy of No Low solves the risk of accidents

Phillips 02
It is argued that the… weapons systems.
Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation would be easily limited

Phillips, 03
Q21: How easy… than a year.
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West Georgia Aff - GSU Quarters
Contention One:
Nuclear War planning specifying China has poisoned relationships and eroded trust
Pan Zhenqiang may 12 2009 “Nuclear Weapons in a Changing Security Environment in North East Asia”
“The second characteristic feature of the US new nuclear” and “confidence and trust among states”
This U.S. analysis of China is based on unquestioned assumptions which legitimate politics and constructs the reality it
imagines
Chengxin pan 2004 “The china therat in American self-imagination: the discursive construction of other as power
politics”
“China and its relationship with the” and "by those common positivist assumptions.”
Contention Two: Mission Accomplished

Scenario one Securitization
Flawed neorealist assumptions define the mission of the US nuclear policy toward china identifying uncertainty as
threat and equating militarism to absolute security
Pan 4 “the china threat in American self imagination alternatives v 29 via google
“the discursive contruction of ….lacks necessary weights”
Attempts to regulate disorder inevitably fail to do anything but legitimate statist institutions and the escalation of
biopolitical violence
Bell 2005 online
“as an instrument of governance…or even humans”
Scenario 2
Covering up racialized thinking in ir has long been standard operating procedure for US policy in the pacific
Furedi 98 The silent war: imperialism and the changing perception of race
“the sentiment that it is best not to talk….subjects of this book “ pg. 73-5
In this way us nuclear war planning is best understood in the context of cultural conflict and manifest destiny
Pan 4 v. 29
“at this point it seems there has been…where can we not prevail”
Objectified in war planning, china becomes the other, an orientalist move by us policy makers
Pan 4 Alternatives v. 29
“by now it seems clear that….become they accordingly”
This form of threat construction is racism

Robins 93 11 Cardozo arts&ent lj 387
“these questions raise the deep the …..suffocated or swamped”
Rejecting racism is a moral imperative which outweighs all other impacts conflict and destruction are inevitable within a
society that allows it
Memmi 2000 Racism, p. 165
“of course, this is debatable…..but the stakes are also irrestibile”
Foreign policy estabilishes a basis from which one can view differences as otherness and commit violence of
neutralize it because of its an ethical prsenation
Campbell 1998 pg. 70-71
“all meaning is constituted….representation of danger”
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The activity of calculation with the calm turns life into a process of death work. The lue of ultimate power sexualizes the
activity of calculation the lure of utilmate you we supposed
Walter davis Deracarationpg. 76-9
“though tank it is abolutely….shatterer of worlds
Plan The usfg should eliminate present targeting plans against china from its nuclear arenal
Contention 3 Vote Aff
Substantially limiting the role of its nuclear arenal is great place to start
Hans Kristensen et al 2006 Chinese nuclear forces and us nucearplanning
The pentagon often depctts…..role if its nuclear weapons in its security policy
Eliminating preset dargete
NRDC 2998
“the united states should eliminate” and “process for flexible planning”
The aff is the crucil supplement to status quo quantitative reductios
Zhenqiang 99 pdf online

“a momentum seems …..and other related aspects at the same time
Curtailing the mission of targeting china in nuclear war planning is the best option
Kristenson and Norris and delrich

“united states and russ-or
“china likewise might, if the united stated, the nuclear mission”
China Aff – GSU Quarters

Contention One: The center of the target.
Nuclear war planning specifying China as poisoned relationships and eroded trust
Zhenqiang 09 [Major General Pan Zhenqiang Deputy Chaiirman, China Foundation for International Studies May 12,
“Nuclear Weapons in a Changing Security Environment in North East Asia”
www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/Paper_Pan_June09.pdf/
“The second characteristic feature … confidence and trust among states.”
This US analysis of China is based on unquestioned assumptions which legitmate power politics and constcuts the
reality it imagines.
Pan 4 (Chengxin, PhD Poli Sci and IR, Australia National Univ. “The China Threat” In American Self-Imagination: The
discursive Construction of Other as Power Politics” Alternatives: Global, Local, Political v29
“China and its relationship with the United States … rendered largely invisible by those common positivist
assumptions”
Contention 2: Mission Accomplished
Scenario 1: Securitization
Flawed Neo-realist assumptions define the mission of U.S nuclear policy toward China, identifying uncertainty as
threat and equating militarism to absolute security.
“Having examined how the “China Threat” literature … Islam is rather vague, and Iran lacks necessary weights).”
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Colleen Bell 05 (Biopolitical Strategies of Security: Considerations on Canada’s New National Security Policy
www.yorku.ca/yciss/publications/documents/WP34-Bell.pdf/
“As an instrument of governance, security operates quite separately … our ability to be citizens, democrats, or even
humans.”
Scenario 2: The ‘Other’ Mission
Covering up racialized thinking IR has long been standard operating procedure for US policy in the Pacific
Frank Ferudi 98 (Professor of Sociology at the University off Kent The Silent War: Imperialism and the Changing
Perception of Race pg 73-75
“The sentiment that it is ‘best not to talk about it’ … racial equality is one of the subjects of this book.”
In this way, US nuclear war planning is best understood in the context of cultural conflict and Manifest Destiny
“At this point, it seems there has been … radically different culture can be won, where can we not prevail?”
Objectified in war planning, China becomes the other, an Orientalist move by US policymakers
“By now, it seems clear that neither China’s capabilities nor intentions … ‘they’ become ‘they’ accordingly.”
This form or threat construction is Racism

Kevin Robins 93 (Professor of Geography, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 11 Cardozo Arts & Ent LJ 387 ln)
“These questions raise “the deep, the profoundly perturbed … I will be suffocated or swamped.”
Rejecting racism outweighs all other impacts – conflict and destruction are inevitable within a society which allows it.
Albert Memmi 2k (Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ U of Paris, Naiteire, Racism, transl. Steve Martinot p 165)
“Of course, this is debatable. There are those who think … it is a wager, but the stakes are irresistabble.”
Text: The USFG should eliminate preset targeting plans against China from its nuclear arsenal missions
Contention 3: Vote Aff
Substantially limiting the role of its nuclear arsenal is a great place to start
Hans Kristenson et al, November 06 (Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning published by the
Federation of American Scientists/Natural Resources Defense Council, google it)
“The Pentagon often depicts the Chinese military in general – and their nuclear forces in particular as looming threats
… advancing disarmament and nonproliferation goals by diminishing the role of nuclear weapons in its security policy.”
Eliminating preset targeting is key

NRDC February 08 (Toward true security: Ten steps the next President should take to transform U.S. Nuclear
weapons policy published by the Federation of American Scientists/Natural Resources Defense Council, google it)
“The United States should eliminate preset targeting plans … facilitate the development of options tailored to
unanticipated situations.”
The aff is the crucial supplement to status quo quantitative reductions

“A momentum seems to be gathering … qualitative and other related aspects of the issue.”
Curtailing the mission of targeting China in nuclear war planning is the best option
Hans Kristensen & Robert Norris & Ivan Oelrich April, 09 (From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear
Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons published by the Federation of American Scientists & The
Natural Resources Defense Council, Occasional Paper no. 7)
“China, likewise, might, if the United States and Russia relaxed their postures … clear benefits from curtailing the
nuclear mission.”
China Aff – GSU Semis
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Contention One: Nuclear Missions should be reduced.

Nuclear war planning specifying China as poisoned relationships and eroded trust
“The second characteristic feature … confidence and trust among states.”
This US analysis of China is based on unquestioned assumptions which legitmate power politics and constcuts the
reality it imagines.
“China and its relationship with the United States … rendered largely invisible by those common positivist
assumptions”
Contention 2: Mission Accomplished

Scenario 1: Securitization
Flawed Neo-realist assumptions define the mission of U.S nuclear policy toward China, identifying uncertainty as
threat and equating militarism to absolute security.
“Having examined how the “China Threat” literature … Islam is rather vague, and Iran lacks necessary weights).”
Colleen Bell 05 (Biopolitical Strategies of Security: Considerations on Canada’s New National Security Policy
www.yorku.ca/yciss/publications/documents/WP34-Bell.pdf/
“As an instrument of governance, security operates quite separately … our ability to be citizens, democrats, or even
humans.”
The activity of calculating with the bomb turns life into a process of death-work. The lure of ultimate power sexualizes
the activity of calculation itself, smearing life with the fear of death. The ideology of the bomb interpolates us into
obsessive excesses of scientific objectivity and intellectual masturbation out of fear of its absolute power.
Walter Davis 2001 (professor of English at ohio state, Deracination, New York, page 76-79
“Though Kant is deliberately ambiguous about it … fulfills all that is Unconscious-avid and atavistic-in the other.”
Scenario 2: The ‘Other’ Mission

Covering up racialized thinking IR has long been standard operating procedure for US policy in the Pacific
Frank Ferudi 98 (Professor of Sociology at the University off Kent The Silent War: Imperialism and the Changing
Perception of Race pg 73-75
“The sentiment that it is ‘best not to talk about it’ … racial equality is one of the subjects of this book.”
In this way, US nuclear war planning is best understood in the context of cultural conflict and Manifest Destiny
“At this point, it seems there has been … radically different culture can be won, where can we not prevail?”
Objectified in war planning, China becomes the other, an Orientalist move by US policymakers
“By now, it seems clear that neither China’s capabilities nor intentions … ‘they’ become ‘they’ accordingly.”
This form or threat construction is Racism

Kevin Robins 93 (Professor of Geography, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 11 Cardozo Arts & Ent LJ 387 ln)
“These questions raise “the deep, the profoundly perturbed … I will be suffocated or swamped.”
Rejecting racism outweighs all other impacts – conflict and destruction are inevitable within a society which allows it.
Albert Memmi 2k (Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ U of Paris, Naiteire, Racism, transl. Steve Martinot p 165)
“Of course, this is debatable. There are those who think … it is a wager, but the stakes are irresistabble.”
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Foreign policy establishes a basis from which one can view difference as otherness and commit violence or neutralize
it because of this representation
David Campbell, 98 (professor of international politics at the university of Newcastle, Writing Security pg 70-71)
“All meaning is constituted through difference … sharpened by the representation of danger.”
Contention 3: A Brand New Hope

The aff is the crucial supplement to status quo quantitative reductions
“A momentum seems to be gathering … qualitative and other related aspects of the issue.”
Problem-solution frameworks accept the status quo as a given, foreclosing radically transformative approaches in
favor of domination
Roland Bleiker 2k (Senior Lecturer and Coordinator of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program at Queensland,
Popular Dissent, Human Agency and Global Politics, pg 16-17
“Dissent in global politics is precisely about redirecting this path … shaping the course of contemporary global politics.”
Questioning the search for solutions opens up the space for alternative politics
William Chaloupka 92 (Associate professor of political science at the University of Montana Knowing Nukes pg 134-
135
“We could, at least, protest against the kind of selves produced in the modern era … enter the era of the puzzle.”
We are a critical deconstruction of the way nuclear weapons have taken over our lives and our politics. The 1ac
constitutes a challenge to the way nuclear weapons are written in a culture of fear.
William Chaloupka 92 (Associate professor of political science at the University of Montana Knowing Nukes pg 137-
138
“In Stanley Kubrick’s file Dr. Strangelove, the end of the world stands for hope … The laughing, cynical, fractal, ironic
cyborg – at last.”
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West Virginai Coffman/Powers (Critical-Patriarchy)

[Nick/Heather]
Observation One Inherency

1. Everyday around the world women, and by women we are including girls over the age of 6 and above, are subject to
grotesque violence solely because they are women. If the news report we are about to read shocks you or in any way
moves you, just remember its one of millions that is happens everyday. The United States Government has done little
to nothing to address this issue, while they continue to funnel billions of dollars a year into a failing and oppressive
nuclear weapons system. In order to make sure there was food for herself and her family Dina, at the age of 17, went
to the farm the crops she was abducted and raped by militia nearby, and left to die.
Nicholas D. Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn
Half the Sky: Turning Oppression into Oppurtunity For Women Worldwide
2009
In light of this ongoing violence against women Meghan and I advocate the following plan:
The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal and
substantially reduce the role of its nuclear weapons arsenal by an unconditional disarm of its nuclear weapons arsenal
Funding and enforcement guaranteed, we reserve the right to clarify in cross-ex
Observation Two Harms
Harm One: Violence Against Women
A. The United States’ investments do not serve its citizens, or the citizens of the world. As humans we are homeless,
impoverished, and unprotected against the most basic and obscene crimes. While we are struggling to get by the
United States Federal Government is spending billions of dollars into an oppressive nuclear program.
OREPA 2006-2009
Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance. Stop the Racism
B. While the United States Federal Government pours billions of dollars into it’s nuclear program they are not only
ignoring social issues they are creating a militaristic society with a tendency to weigh military impacts over the impacts
of everyday violence.
Callaghan 2003
C. Women around the world are under attack. The United Nations reports that one in three women around the world
will experience violent acts against them. This is not only an alarming statistic, but the fact of the matter is it denies
women full access to their lives. These violent acts only seem to increase in times of conflict and militarization.
Violence against women takes a back seat to the overarching fear of war, that is promoted by this militaristic society.
Cuomo 1996
D. Everyday violence, such as violence against women, encompasses all areas of society, which kills more human
beings than any instance of nuclear war that has happened in the past. This by far outweighs any nuclear war scenario
you could outline.
Gilligan 1996
Harm Two Nuclear Rhetoric
A. The United States’ continuation of nuclear policies produces a rhetoric that promotes patriarchal domination and
control
Carol Cohn and Sara Ruddick

A Feminist Ethical Perspective on Weapons of Mass Destruction
2003
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B. Nuclear Discourse is culturally constructed by male norms that perpetuate patriarchal practices.

2003
C. These patriarchal norms allow for the continued persistence of nuclear weapons. Until we disarm we will continue
the cycle of violence created by the persistence of nuclear rhetoric.
Observation Three Solvency
A. When nuclear weapons are present in society even if there is not a declared “war” going on, militarism continues to
run rampant. Through a complete disarm there would be a complete reduction of nuclear discourse.

2003
B. Only through a complete disarm with the United States begin to challenge the militaristic and patriarchal norms that
are prevalent in society. Not only would a disarmament be the way to challenge an existence of patriarchy in status
quo, overall it is the best moral option that faces this years resolution.
C. A full on rejection of militarism will be a critical way we can challenge and denounce patriarchal practices that allow
for violence to persist in the status quo.
Observation Four
The Ballot
Meghan and I advocate that the ballot should be given to the team that best debates within this round. Our job as the
affirmative is to provide a topical affirmative that addresses important issues that affect our lives. Throughout our lives
as rural, white women we have experienced patriarchy at its finest, and through our academic studies of international
relations we have seen the impact patriarchy has on societies around the world. We are in no way claiming to solve for
every instance of patriarchy or for every person in the world. Meghan and I came to this resolution with a question of
how to find a way to challenge the dominance that exists in our world and how nuclear weapons policy perpetuates
that dominance. Meghan and I are also not claiming that every woman or every society has the same problems or
solutions. Through our individual experiences we are able to begin break this system of domination that perpetuates
gross abuses against humanity. Though we don’t necessarily believe that taking a stance against gender-motivated
violence and nuclear rhetoric necessarily makes us feminists, we will advocate global feminism in this round as the
best ideology to challenge patriarchy.
Bring on your Feminism is essentializing, racist, and ignores intersections of oppression all you want. We are not and
should not be held responsible for forms of feminism we do not advocate in this round. Feminism is a theory that has
multiple different schisms within the discipline. We will not be held responsible for every piece of feminist scholarship
that has ever been produced.
Global Feminism is an ideology that works for women’s rights around the globe. Global feminism challenges patriarchy
as well as western domination in theoretical practice. Overall each person in the world will have different needs, and
understanding this intersection is the first step to challenging and dismantling patriarchy.
Chamallas 2003 Introduction to Feminist Legal Theory
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Whitman Edwards/Janyk (Critical) [Arif]
Whitman EdJa AFF outline:
Role Play 1: debate coach and pre-frosh discussing the rules of debate
Role Play 2: nuclear strategist and new PR rep discussing nuclear PR strategy
The focus on the nuclear gadget is a myopic gaze that distracts us from the role that nuclear weapons play, which is to
secure national prosperity. Museums, memorials and tourists events act as a replacement for actual weapons
accumulation that operate through the accumulation of bodies captured via the “State apparatus.”
Marc Lafleur, 2008, PhD student in anthropology at the University of Toronto. “The Bomb and the Bombshell: The
Body as Virtual Battlefront” Interculture 5.1.
Throughout New Mexico are signs of war’s techno-boom... This counter-proliferation is rooted, seemingly
paradoxically, in the recognition and proliferation of the body’s affective intensities, unassimilable moments of
becoming that mark out a new politics of potential
We only talk about nuclear war; it does not exist. It is the non-event without referent. Even speculations are only
specularizations creating fear and assimilation of the unanticapatable other. It is this fable of war that leads us to
stockpile and assimilate society and politics to the war effort.
Jacques Derrida, French dead white guy, Summer 1984, No Apocalypse, Not Now (Full Speed Ahead, Seven Missiles,
Seven Missives), Diacrtics, vol 14, no 2, Nuclear Criticism, p20-31, JStor.
Third reason...An invention because it depends upon new technical mechanisms, to be surer but an invention also
because it does not exist and especially because, at whatever point it should come into existence, it would be a grand
premiere appearance.
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**CTBT**
Boston College Benedict/Stacy (CTBT) (Rohan]
CTBT Affirmative – Horizontal & Vertical Proliferation Advantages
Contention One: Horizontal Proliferation
The NPT is collapsing now—2010 conference failure will spark global nuclear arms races and nuclear war
New Scientist, May 30, 2009:
[editorial,“Thanks for the blast, North Korea”, p.3]
Is a nuclear explosion ever good news? and need testing, and a test ban
NPT collapse will cause global proliferation—9 new states will go nuclear
Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund President, 2007:
[Bomb Scare: The history & Future of Nuclear weapons, Joseph, p.108]
Most nations would continue to and first time in some twenty years.
Rapid proliferation increases the risk of nuclear war in 5 ways—and the outbreak of a regional nuclear war in the
Middle East is a 5 in 6 probability
Allison, Harvard JFK professor and Belfer Center Director, 2006:
(The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Fall, Graham, p. 20-21)
Were a cascade of nuclear proliferation and regional nuclear war.
Regional nuclear wars will escalate to global nuclear war

Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, 2008:
[New Internationalist, June, [Paul], p. http://www.newint.org/features/2008/06/01/warheads/]
The risk is that some time and devastation across much of the world.
Global nuclear war will cause a full blown Ice Age, ending in extinction
Helfand and Pastore, Physicians for Social Responsibility past presidents, 2009:
[U.S.-Russia nuclear war still a threat, March 31; Ira; John, p.
http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html]
Recent studies by the eminent and would become extinct.
Contention Two: Vertical Proliferation
Without US ratification, the moratorium on nuclear testing will collapse--China and other nuclear powers will resume
testing
Joseph, senior foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate, 2009:
[Washington Quarterly, April, Jofi, p. 85]
Obama’s national security team and . The time to move is now.
Breakdown in non-testing norm will lead to the proliferation of MIRVed weapons

McGrath, Monterey Institute for International Studies Research Associate, 2009:
[Issue Brief: Battle Lines Being Drawn in the CTBT Debate: an Analysis of the Strategic Posture Commission's
Arguments against U.S. Ratification, July 8, [Keegan], p. http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_us_ratification.html]
The authors' assertion that there is no and that this breakdown could occur.
MIRVs enable counterforce targeting, increasing the risk of preemptive nuclear war
Karp, Professor at Old Dominion University and the U.S. Joint Forces Staff College, 2004: [Weapons of Mass
Destruction: An Encyclopedia of Worldwide Policy, Technology, and History, volume 2, eds by E. Coddy, J. Wirtz, and
J. Larsen, [Aaron], p. 225]
Individually too small to insure and in times of crisis (see Crisis Stability; Deterrence).
Nuclear testing and weapons buildup by India and Pakistan increases the risk of nuclear war
Nelson, senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009:
[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April, Robert, p . 55]
In South Asia, both Pakistan and India and unstable nuclear arms race in South Asia.
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Renewed testing will allow China to MIRV weapons

Nelson, senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, observed in 2009:
[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April, p . 54-55]
For example, China is thought to possess and develop multiple-warhead missiles.
Chinese MIRVs increase the risk of a US-China nuclear war

Fuerth, Shapiro professor of international relations at George Washington argued in 2001:
[Washington Quarterly, Fall 2001, Leon, p. 105]
As for China, its resources may limit and with the Soviet Union.
Chinese nuclear buildup will cause instability and war in Asia

Chu & Rong, Tsingua University professor and PHD student, 2008:
[The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia, ed. by M. Alagappa, [Shulong; Yu], p. 182]
If China modernizes its strategic military and be both an “Asian century” and a peaceful century.
Therefore we offer the following plan:

The United States Federal Government should ratify and implement the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and
prohibit the development and deployment of any new nuclear warheads.
Contention III: Solvency
US ratification of the CTBT is key to achieving a successful 2010 NPT review conference and gaining support for
stronger IAEA safeguards and enforcement
Joseph, senior foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate, argued in 2009:
[Washington Quarterly, April, Jofi, p. 82]
In light of this recent discouraging history, and that violate their IAEA obligations.
US leadership is key to bolstering NPT norms and preventing proliferation by Iran and North Korea
Halperin, Center for American progress senior fellow, 2009:
[The Nuclear Order--Build or Break, April 6, Morton, p.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/npc_build_or_break4.pdf]
PERKOVICH: Well, this – that actually leads to a and other countries and take their interests into account.
95% probability exists that China will ratify the CTBT after the US does
Matishak, Global Security Newswire, June 4, 2009,
[Nuclear Test Ban Could Become Reality Without North Korea, Experts Say, Martin, p.
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090602_5876.php]
"The CTBT is one of the best ways to further and China likely will follow suit.
CTBT prevents China from MIRVing weapons

Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, 2009:
[Arms Control Today, May, Daryl, p. 3]
Indeed, the CTBT remains an essential and with multiple warheads.
IMS Global monitoring system will detect all militarily significant testing. That’s the conclusion of the National Academy
of Sciences.
Nelson, senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009:
[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April, Robert, p. 55-56]
The CTBT is verifiable where it counts. And underground nuclear explosions.
Cavity decoupling is not feasible for countries without nuclear weapons and China and Russia would not gain militarily
significant information if they cheated
Sharp, Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, 2009:
[Corral that bomb testing, March 17, Travis, http://nukesofhazardblog.com/story/2009/3/17/115629/402]
Cavity decoupling involves constructing a cavity and We just know so little about it).
SSP will maintain the reliability and safety of nuclear weapons without testing—3 technical achievements over the past
10 years proves effectiveness
Drell, Stanford Linear Accelerator Laboratory, 2009:
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[The Future of the CTBT, April 7, Sidney, p. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/npc_ctbt1.pdf]

I can tell you what I consider the main and significant advances in understanding.
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Emory Gordon/Jegadeesh (CTBT) [Rohan]
GSU Aff Disclosure

PLAN TEXT
The United States federal government should consent to be bound by the international agreement prohibiting nuclear
explosion tests.
Soft Power 1ac
Advantage 1- Soft Power

Obama improved the US image – but it isn’t translating into soft power – action on nuclear issues key
Ghitis 09 independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor
(Frida, World Citizen: Obama Must Parlay Soft Power Gains into Real Results, april 9)
When viewed through a wide lens, the tour …Obama will have to score more solid results.
CTBT ratification is the NUMBER ONE sign that we respect the international community, are committed to
multilateralism, and revamps soft power
Joseph 09 senior Democratic foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate
(Jofi, Renew the Drive for CTBT Ratification, The Washington Quarterly, Volume 32, Issue 2 April 2009 , pages 79 - 90
…. states reached the conclusion that ratification of the CTBT ‘‘would send a very strong signal’’ to demonstrate the
U.S. commitment to disarmament.
Nuclear issues are the best way to change the perception of US leadership – it shores up our soft power – that’s key to
solving a litany of issues
Stanley 07 PhD in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University
(Elizabeth A, , “International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy,” independent research project for the Advanced
Concepts Group at Sandia National Laboratories, Feb,)
Seen in light of this wider debate about cooperation ..The strategic interaction is complex and incredibly difficult to
model.
Soft power & perception is key to effective leadership – builds alliances, checks counter-balancing, maintains domestic
support – multilateral co-op is the best internal link to solving terrorism
Jervis 09 professor of international politics at Columbia University.
(Robert, Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective, World Politics Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009
To say that the system is unipolar is not to argue that the … its leadership is benign.
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Terrorism causes extinction
SID – AHMED 04 Political Analyst
[Mohamed, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
…. nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
Commitment to multilateralism is vital to prevent counter-balancing and overstretch – which destroy US leadership
Grygiel 06 George H. W. Bush Chair in International Relations at Johns Hopkins University
(Jakub “Imperial Allies” Orbis, Volume 50, Issue 2 (ScienceDirect)
But the fact that the United States has achieved overwhelming …. detriment of American interests.
US decline won’t be peaceful – it’ll explode into global chaos & WMD conflicts – mending our image is vital
Brzezinski 05 National Security Advisor in the Carter Administration, Professor of Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins
University
[Zbigniew “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership” (p. 2-4)]
History is a record of change, a reminder that nothing endures indefinitely. It can …. power to enlist others in a
common effort to shape a more secure international environment.
Leadership stops multiple nuclear conflicts – solves all the worlds problems
Kagan 07 Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Robert “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review

(http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)]
Finally, there is the United States itself. As a matter of national … will provide an easier path.
Prolif 1AC
ADVANTAGE 2 - Prolif
US ratification is key – restores international prolif credibility, prevents future testing, stops horizontal and vertical
proliferation and creates hurdles to would be proliferators
GOODBY 4 – 7 – 09 Senior Fellow, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute and a member
of the Bipartisan Security Group, Negotiated the Helsinki Accords with NATO, Vice Chair for the US during START
negotiations, chief US Negotiator for the Safe and Secure Dismantlement of Nuclear Weapons. 1st Heinz Award
Winner for Public Policy. Former Diplomat and Ambassador
[James, “Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference on the Future of the CTBT,”

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/npc_CTBT1.pdf]
AMBASSADOR JAMES GOODBY: Thank you…. as realistic or possible. It’s that important.
Thanks.
AND – the internal links of credibility, barriers, & US leadership are vital to checking nuclear annihalation
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Cohn 09 Lecturer law, ethics and logic at the University of New York in Prague and advisor to a leading international
law firm in central Europe.
(William, A Call to Disarm, Australia.TO International Edition - Local and World News, may 19th)
The status quo, however, is unsustainable with ….. beef-up its nuclear weapons capacity.
And, Modernization – Ratification is key to halting a new round of modernization
Joseph 09 – senior Democratic foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate
(Jofi, “Renew the Drive for CTBT Ratification” http://ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016181_13955.pdf)
As Obama himself recognizes, the road to a …. multiple warhead ballistic missiles.10
Modernization efforts will spark global proliferation
Civiak, 2k nuclear weapons policy analyst of 24 years
(Robert, Managing the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, July,

http://www.trivalleycares.org/ManagingStockpileReport.pdf)
The DOE Stockpile Stewardship Option (_) rates poor …. this problem.
AND – new mini-nukes lower the threshold and make nuke wars inevitable
Western States Legal Foundation, 2001
(Fewer But Newer: the Role of Nuclear Weapons in U.S. Plans for Global Military Dominance, Fall,
http://www.wslfweb.org/docs/fewerbutnewer.pdf)
Last year, the U.S. Congress passed ….t states which do not have them.8
And, TESTING – its inevitable – the impact is global prolif. US ratification jumpstarts the move to reverse the trend
PEDEN & HILL, 06 nuclear analyst and researcher for Greenpeace International; Felicity is the political adviser on
nuclear and disarmament issues for Greenpeace
[William, “Testing the Test-Ban Treaty,” United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research,
http://www.unidir.org/pdf/articles/pdf-art2489.pdf]
Without the CTBT’s entry into force, the damage caused ….: and this is where we should all be directing our energy.
And, GLOBAL NORMS – US action creates a norm that prevents prolif. AND – that is an independent internal link to
preventing conflicts from escalating
Graham and Kampelman 08 Ambassador, involved in the negotiation and/or review process of every major
international arms control agreement in which the United States participated between 1970 and 1997 and Ambassador
to the Conference on Security and cooperation in Europe from 1980 to 1984
(Thomas and Max, Nuclear Weapons: A n Existential Threat to Humanity, CTBTO Spectrum 1, September 2008,)
Sixty-three years ago last month, the beautiful ….. to live up to its potential.
Proliferation risks extinction. It probably doesn’t reduce conventional war but the benefits don’t justify jacking with the
human future.
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Krieger ‘9 (David, Pres. Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Councilor – World Future Council, “Still Loving the Bomb
After All These Years”, 9-4, https://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2009/09/04_krieger_newsweek_response.php?
krieger)
Jonathan Tepperman’s article in the September 7, 2009 ….. and his successors are more rational than Mr.
Tepperman?
Prolif uniquely contributes to war. Lack of rationality, bad C and C and short distances.
Cimbala ‘8 (Stephen, Distinguished Prof. Pol. Sci. – Penn. State Brandywine, Comparative Strategy, “Anticipatory
Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia”, 27, InformaWorld)
If the possibility existed of a …… or marginalization of major interstate warfare.
Nuclear prolif poses unique risks. Four reasons it could spread quickly and escalate.
Cirincione ‘7 (Joe, Pres. Ploughshares Fund and Senior Fellow and Dir. Nuclear Policy – Center for American
Progress, National Interest, “Symposium: Apocalypse When?” November/December, L/N)
Let me be clear: Nuclear proliferation is a real danger. ….. risks a return to the 1950s nuclear free-for-all.
Ere massively against proliferation – the catastrophic nature of our impacts demand 100% certainty before you would
vote against us
Busch ‘4 (Nathan, Visiting Ass. Prof. Public & Int’l Affairs – Center for Int’l. Trade & Security – UGA, “ No End in Sight:
The continuing Menace of Nuclear Proliferation”, p. 313)
While abstract theorizing can be found on both sides of …. of the policymaker, would lead to policy recommendations
that are more sound.
Deterrence is unstable. Failure is likely even with minimal deterrence.
Arbatov ‘6 (Alexei, PhD History and Dir. Center for International Security, Institute of the World Economy and
International Relations and Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Politics and Law, “Nuclear Deterrence and
Proliferation The Dialectics of “Doomsday Weapons””, 44:5, September-October, 35-60)
The enormous ambivalence of nuclear deterrence ….. all the diversity of political reality—or do nothing at all, taking
the chance that no retaliatory strike will take place. This makes it extremely likely that someone will unleash nuclear
war through miscalculation or a technical error.
Deterrence failure is likely, especially with new powers. Proliferation isn’t stabilizing.
Preston ‘7 (Thomas, Associate Prof. IR – Washington State U. and Faculty Research Associate – Moynihan Institute of
Global Affairs, “From Lambs to Lions: Future Security relationships in a World of Biological and Nuclear Weapons”, p.
29-31)
Essentially, the arguments raised by the pessimist school of ……. to force considering the use of nuclear weapons
(Snyder 1961).
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James Madison Brass/Deck (CTBT) [Rohan]
GSU Aff Disclosure

All of the JMU teams at GSU will be running some variation of this Aff.
Inherency
1) Testing is on the rise now- other countries are waiting on U.S. ratification of the CTBT in order to bring the treaty
and its inspections regime into force
The Economist, 6/4/09. “Making a Start”
But some things … not in the mood.
2) And despite Obama’s spring pledge at Prague, the U.S. has yet to ratify the CTBT. The votes just aren’t there and
there has been no rush to push the treaty in the status quo
PONI 9/10/09. Project on Nuclear Issues blog. “Top Chef CTBT,” Center for Strategic and International Studies. /sal
Can they get …very thorny issues?
Advantage – Iran/NoKo
Advantage ) is Iran and North Korea:
1) The CTBT is at the heart of America’s disarmament hypocrisy as a result the U.S. has alienated diplomatic talks
with so-called “rogue states”
Habib 4/8/09. Adam, is deputy vice-chancellor of research, innovation and advancement at the University of
Johannesburg.
“Africa; Springtime for Disarmament After Obama's Leap in Prague” Africa News. LexisNexis. [SAL]
PRESIDENT Barack Obama … US this year.
2) The CTBT is key to build the international coalitions necessary to boost diplomatic efforts on nuclear weapons
programs in Iran and North Korea
Berger 6/2/09. Samuel R. Berger was national security advisor from 1997-2001. He is co-chairman of Stonebridge
International. Sam Nunn is co-chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and a former U.S. Senator. William J. Perry, a
professor at Stanford University, is a former U.S. secretary of Defense., Politico.com.
Let's be clear: …preventing nuclear dangers.
Advantage - Iran Module
Our first internal link is Iran:
a) Iran is willing to negotiate over its nuclear program now- it’s time to finally seal the deal
BBC News 9/8/09. “Iran 'to submit nuclear package'” /sal
Iran is preparing … its peaceful use.
b) The specter of Iran’s nuclear weapons program has set the world on high-alert. A Middle East arms race has
resulted, causing destabilizing, fast proliferation. This makes nuclear war inevitable.
Cirincione and Leventer 07. Joseph Cirincione is director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress and
the author of "Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons." Uri Leventer is a graduate student at the
Harvard University John F. Kennedy School of Government. "The Middle East Nuclear Surge," Int’l Herald Tribune
(8/21).
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Iran is …promoting their products.
c) A nuclear Middle East would not be stable- deterrence will be unable to prevent cascading proliferation, nuclear war
and nuclear terrorism
Kurtz 06. Stanley, Ethics and Public Policy Center senior fellow. "Our Fallout-Shelter Future," National Review (8/28).
Proliferation optimists, on …into nuclear confrontations.
d) Middle-East wars will escalate to global nuclear war
Steinbach 2002 (John; DC Iraq Coalition) “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace”
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html
Meanwhile, the existence … a world conflagration."
e) And nuclear terrorism will cause global nuclear war and extinction.
Sid-Ahmed 2004 (Mohamed; Al-Ahram staff) “Extinction!” Al-Ahram Weekly issue no. 705 WBW
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
What would be … all be losers.
Advantage – North Korea Module
Our second internal link is North Korea:
a) North Korea is ready to reopen diplomatic negotiations- every issue will be on the table
Sheridan 8/20/09. Mary Beth, staff writer “After Meeting, N.M. Governor Says N. Koreans Are Ready for 'Dialogue'”
Washington Post. /sal
In the latest … the U.S. government.
b) Failure of a peaceful, diplomatic deal with Pyongyang causes strikes on North Korea
Evans 07. Gareth Evans is chief executive of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group and a former foreign
minister and deputy Labor leader (Australia). “Maintaining anti-nuclear rage” The Canberra Times (Aug 17). Lexis.
Nobody wants to … long as we live.
c) Strikes will fail and independently lead to extinction
Choi 02. Kim Myong, Executive Director of the Center for Korean-American Peace, Tokyo, and the former editor of
People's Korea. “Agreed framework is brain dead: shotgun wedding is the only option to defuse crisis” Oct 24,
http://www.nautilis.org/for a/security0212A_Choi.html
The second choice is …second-class nuclear power.
d) And a strike on Korea will lead to a regional nuclear war that will draw in the U.S.
Chol, ’02 (Kim Myong, PhD in Political Science and Executive Director of the Center for Korean-American Peace. “The
Agreed Framework is Brain Dead,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html)
Three facts may … a million people."
Advantage – Multilateralism
Advantage _) is Multilateralism:
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1) Multilateralism is down now- the U.S. economic crisis has turned political attention inward as international
obligations are put on the back burner
Altman 8/09. Roger C., Chair and CEO of Evercore Partners. He was U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary in 1993-94.
“Globalization in Retreat” Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug (V.88, I.4).
The World Bank … quarter of the world.
2) CTBT ratification will be seen as a signal that the U.S. is committed to multilateralism
Joseph 4/09. Jofi Joseph is a senior Democratic foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate, Washington
Quarterly, April 2009, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Joseph.pdf “Renew the Drive for CTBT Ratification.”
First, a pledge …so much promise.
3) Multilateral cooperation leads to the end of nuclear war, and prevents the impacts to escalating environmental
destruction
Dyer 04. Gwynne, "The end of war," Toronto Star, LN 12/30/2004
War is deeply … existing state system.

Advantage – India-Pakistan
Advantage ) is India-Pakistan:
1) India is warming up to the CTBT now, but U.S. leadership on ratification is key to get India to actually sign it
BBC 3/25/09. “India calls for universal abolition of atomic weapons” BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political. LexisNexis.
[SAL]
Text of report … 2005, he observed.
2) Despite its harsh rhetoric, Indian leaders will not prevent the CTBT entry into force. Pakistan will follow India’s
ratification
Johnson 06. Rebecca, Executive Director of the Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy, London. “Is it time to
consider provisional application of the CTBT?” /sal
At the time … of Republican loyalty.
3) CTBT ratification slows down the ongoing Indo-Pak arms races and limits the chances for and lethality of any
exchange
Kimball 08. Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, May 2008, http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3300, The Enduring
Value of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and Prospects for Its Entry Into Force
The CTBT is … possible nuclear testing.
4) A full scale India-Pakistan nuclear war would break-out with other nations being drawn in causing extinction.
Helen Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002 [The New Nuclear Danger, The New Press]
The use of … life on earth.
Plan Text
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Thus, we offer the following plan:
The United States federal government should ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and support its
provisional ratification. Funding and implementation are guaranteed.
Solvency
The post-Bush political climate is the critical time; the other entry into force states will follow the U.S.’ lead
Kurosawa 8/4/09. Mitsuru, a professor at Osaka Jogakuin College who in spring was appointed president of the newly
launched Japan Association of Disarmament Studies. “Declaration praised for clear visions on nuclear policies” by
Shinichi Yanagawa (editor), The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo). /sal
Q: What is the … toward nuclear disarmament.
U.S. ratification is THE litmus test for global nonproliferation efforts by creating a strong international norm. In
particular, it will strip any benefit of a nuclear program for states like North Korea and India
Perry and Scowcroft 09. William J., Secretary of Defense under Clinton and Brent, National Security Advisor to Ford
and George HW Bush. “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy- Independent Task Force Report No. 62” Council on Foreign
Relations (Spring). /sal
The CTBT’s entry … technical benefits discussed.
Provisional ratification bolsters the legal authority of the treaty and will bring non-signatories in during the transitory
stage
Unlike in 1999 … UN General Assembly:8 1.
Synergies within the monitoring system solves cheating and verification
Shalikashvili 01. General John M. (USA, ret.), Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State for the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.“Letter to the President and Report on the Findings and Recommendations
Concerning the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty” (Jan. 4).
How Big a Problem is Evasion?… might not uncover.
The CTBT is a key candidate for provisional ratification
With regard to … are less ideological.
The CTBT is fully verifiable- synergies among monitoring tech means that cheaters will get caught
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James Madison Chaganti/Lowry (CTBT) [Rohan]
JMU CL
Round #5 KY
vs Team: Wake MS
Judge: Nick Ryan
Plan Text
CTBT – on caselist
1ac w/ cites
CTBT – prolif adv, multilat adv, Japan relations adv
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons
None
Read impact turns to health care

James Madison CL
We ran this Aff primarily at Clarion- S.L.
Advantage 1 is Nuclear Testing:
The history of U.S. nuclear tests on indigenous populations in the Pacific show: nuclear testing disproportionately
affects women and children, as they are forced to bear the worst of the health impacts.
EVE Online 93. Ecofeminist Visions Emerging. "Pacific Women Speak" a discussion by Colleen M., Robin Z., Mary
Ellen B., and Cathleen M. on July 6, 1993 about Woman of Power by Darlene, Lijon Eknilang, and Chailang Palacios.
Fall 1990. /sal
http://eve.enviroweb.org/perspectives/issues/nuclear.html
This month we read …new cosmologies.
And the May 2009 nuclear test by North Korea is a contemporary metaphor for a system of international relations that
values physical security over the human and environmental security. Ratifying the CTBT will create a system of
international norms to prevent nuclear testing on a global scale.
Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom 5/26/09. WILPF was founded in April 1915, in the Hague, the
Netherlands, by some 1300 women from Europe and North America, from countries at war against each other and
neutral ones, who came together in a Congress of Women to protest the killing and destruction of the war then raging
in Europe. “Response to the Nuclear Weapons Test of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea).” /sal
http://www.wilpf.int.ch/statements/2009/26May2009_DPRK.html
The Women’s International …for thousands of generations
Out of the radioactive dust of nuclear tests, women’s movements have proven to be a powerful force in influencing
government policy. Their unique perspective is key to address for an patriarchical legacy of nuclear testing and to
prevent a continuation of testing in the future.
Watters 04. Kate, the environmental programs director and coordinator of the Central Asia Project at ISAR. “Women
Lead the Way: Environmental Activism in Central Asia.” Institute for Soviet and American Relations.
http://www.isar.org/pubs/ST/Kate.html /sal
Soviet industrialization and …our civilization.
Perpetuating patriarchy makes nuclear war inevitable

Peterson 00. V. Spike, Prof of Poli Sci @ Arizona. “Global Gender Issues: Revisited” 99.
Finally, gender sensitive…in the world
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Advantage 2 is Multilateralism:
1) Multilateralism is down now- the U.S. economic crisis has turned political attention inward as any duty towards
international obligations are put on the back burner
First, a pledge … so much promise.
3) Post the plan, multilateral cooperation will be capable of ending the dangerous spread of weapons and war, as well
as the negative environmental impacts associated with them
War is deeply …the existing state system.
Thus we advocate the following plan:

The United States federal government should ratify and implement the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
We being with the observation that the belief that America’s past requires a rejection of America’s future destroys any
hope of political change and obliterates national pride
Rorty, 1999
(Richard, Professor Emeritus of Comparative Literature and, by courtesy, of Philosophy at Stanford University,
Achieving Our Country) MKD
One does not … national hope.
Rejecting the stats quo trivialization of gendered issues is essential to the broader struggle against gendered violence
– concerns for political consequences assure the continued erasure of violence.
Enloe, 04
(Research Professor – Clark University, The Curious Feminist, Google Book)
Thus we need … to add "lesbian").
Don’t discard these lives in favor of a constructed off case scenario. To label the status quo as "peaceful." We must
challenge this domination and objectification wherever it occurs.
Ray, 97
(Law Clerk to the Honorable Clyde H. Hamilton, United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, Feb46 Am. U.L.
Rev. 793)
Because, as currently … silence women. 268
Race and gender can’t be an either/or proposition – to do so silences women of color

Crenshaw 1991 [Kimberlé Williams, Law Professor, UCLA, “Mapping the Margins: Intersectionality, Identity Politics,
and Violence Against Women of Color,” Stanford Law Review, http://www.wcsap.org/Events/Workshop07/mapping-
margins.pdf http://www.wcsap.org/Events/Workshop07/mapping-margins.pdf ]
The problem with …that resists telling.
Failure to adopt an intersectional approach reproduces BOTH racist subordination of people of color and sexist
subordination of women
Crenshaw 1991 [Kimberlé Williams, Law Professor, UCLA, “Mapping the Margins: Intersectionality, Identity Politics,
and Violence Against Women of Color,” Stanford Law Review, http://www.wcsap.org/Events/Workshop07/mapping-
margins.pdf http://www.wcsap.org/Events/Workshop07/mapping-margins.pdf ]
Among the … women of color.
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GSU Aff Disclosure

All of the JMU teams at GSU will be running some variation of this Aff.
Inherency
1) Testing is on the rise now- other countries are waiting on U.S. ratification of the CTBT in order to bring the treaty
and its inspections regime into force
The Economist, 6/4/09. “Making a Start”
But some things … not in the mood.
2) And despite Obama’s spring pledge at Prague, the U.S. has yet to ratify the CTBT. The votes just aren’t there and
there has been no rush to push the treaty in the status quo
PONI 9/10/09. Project on Nuclear Issues blog. “Top Chef CTBT,” Center for Strategic and International Studies. /sal
Can they get …very thorny issues?
Advantage – Iran/NoKo
Advantage ) is Iran and North Korea:
1) The CTBT is at the heart of America’s disarmament hypocrisy as a result the U.S. has alienated diplomatic talks
with so-called “rogue states”
Habib 4/8/09. Adam, is deputy vice-chancellor of research, innovation and advancement at the University of
Johannesburg.
“Africa; Springtime for Disarmament After Obama's Leap in Prague” Africa News. LexisNexis. [SAL]
PRESIDENT Barack Obama … US this year.
2) The CTBT is key to build the international coalitions necessary to boost diplomatic efforts on nuclear weapons
programs in Iran and North Korea
Berger 6/2/09. Samuel R. Berger was national security advisor from 1997-2001. He is co-chairman of Stonebridge
International. Sam Nunn is co-chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and a former U.S. Senator. William J. Perry, a
professor at Stanford University, is a former U.S. secretary of Defense., Politico.com.
Let's be clear: …preventing nuclear dangers.
Advantage - Iran Module
Our first internal link is Iran:
a) Iran is willing to negotiate over its nuclear program now- it’s time to finally seal the deal
BBC News 9/8/09. “Iran 'to submit nuclear package'” /sal
Iran is preparing … its peaceful use.
b) The specter of Iran’s nuclear weapons program has set the world on high-alert. A Middle East arms race has
resulted, causing destabilizing, fast proliferation. This makes nuclear war inevitable.
Cirincione and Leventer 07. Joseph Cirincione is director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress and
the author of "Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons." Uri Leventer is a graduate student at the
Harvard University John F. Kennedy School of Government. "The Middle East Nuclear Surge," Int’l Herald Tribune
(8/21).
Iran is …promoting their products.
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c) A nuclear Middle East would not be stable- deterrence will be unable to prevent cascading proliferation, nuclear war
and nuclear terrorism
Kurtz 06. Stanley, Ethics and Public Policy Center senior fellow. "Our Fallout-Shelter Future," National Review (8/28).
Proliferation optimists, on …into nuclear confrontations.
d) Middle-East wars will escalate to global nuclear war
Steinbach 2002 (John; DC Iraq Coalition) “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace”
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html
Meanwhile, the existence … a world conflagration."
e) And nuclear terrorism will cause global nuclear war and extinction.
Sid-Ahmed 2004 (Mohamed; Al-Ahram staff) “Extinction!” Al-Ahram Weekly issue no. 705 WBW
What would be … all be losers.
Advantage – North Korea Module
Our second internal link is North Korea:
a) North Korea is ready to reopen diplomatic negotiations- every issue will be on the table
Sheridan 8/20/09. Mary Beth, staff writer “After Meeting, N.M. Governor Says N. Koreans Are Ready for 'Dialogue'”
Washington Post. /sal
In the latest … the U.S. government.
b) Failure of a peaceful, diplomatic deal with Pyongyang causes strikes on North Korea
Evans 07. Gareth Evans is chief executive of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group and a former foreign
minister and deputy Labor leader (Australia). “Maintaining anti-nuclear rage” The Canberra Times (Aug 17). Lexis.
Nobody wants to … long as we live.
c) Strikes will fail and independently lead to extinction
Choi 02. Kim Myong, Executive Director of the Center for Korean-American Peace, Tokyo, and the former editor of
People's Korea. “Agreed framework is brain dead: shotgun wedding is the only option to defuse crisis” Oct 24,
http://www.nautilis.org/for a/security0212A_Choi.html
The second choice is …second-class nuclear power.
d) And a strike on Korea will lead to a regional nuclear war that will draw in the U.S.
Chol, ’02 (Kim Myong, PhD in Political Science and Executive Director of the Center for Korean-American Peace. “The
Agreed Framework is Brain Dead,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html)
Three facts may … a million people."
Advantage – Multilateralism
Advantage _) is Multilateralism:
1) Multilateralism is down now- the U.S. economic crisis has turned political attention inward as international
obligations are put on the back burner
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First, a pledge …so much promise.
3) Multilateral cooperation leads to the end of nuclear war, and prevents the impacts to escalating environmental
destruction
War is deeply … existing state system.

Advantage – India-Pakistan
Advantage ) is India-Pakistan:
1) India is warming up to the CTBT now, but U.S. leadership on ratification is key to get India to actually sign it
BBC 3/25/09. “India calls for universal abolition of atomic weapons” BBC Monitoring South Asia – Political. LexisNexis.
[SAL]
Text of report … 2005, he observed.
2) Despite its harsh rhetoric, Indian leaders will not prevent the CTBT entry into force. Pakistan will follow India’s
ratification
At the time … of Republican loyalty.
3) CTBT ratification slows down the ongoing Indo-Pak arms races and limits the chances for and lethality of any
exchange
Kimball 08. Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, May 2008, http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3300, The Enduring
Value of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and Prospects for Its Entry Into Force
The CTBT is … possible nuclear testing.
4) A full scale India-Pakistan nuclear war would break-out with other nations being drawn in causing extinction.
Helen Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002 [The New Nuclear Danger, The New Press]
The use of … life on earth.
Plan Text
Thus, we offer the following plan:
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The United States federal government should ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and support its
provisional ratification. Funding and implementation are guaranteed.
Solvency
The post-Bush political climate is the critical time; the other entry into force states will follow the U.S.’ lead
Kurosawa 8/4/09. Mitsuru, a professor at Osaka Jogakuin College who in spring was appointed president of the newly
launched Japan Association of Disarmament Studies. “Declaration praised for clear visions on nuclear policies” by
Shinichi Yanagawa (editor), The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo). /sal
Q: What is the … toward nuclear disarmament.
U.S. ratification is THE litmus test for global nonproliferation efforts by creating a strong international norm. In
particular, it will strip any benefit of a nuclear program for states like North Korea and India
Perry and Scowcroft 09. William J., Secretary of Defense under Clinton and Brent, National Security Advisor to Ford
and George HW Bush. “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy- Independent Task Force Report No. 62” Council on Foreign
Relations (Spring). /sal
The CTBT’s entry … technical benefits discussed.
Provisional ratification bolsters the legal authority of the treaty and will bring non-signatories in during the transitory
stage
Unlike in 1999 … UN General Assembly:8 1.
Synergies within the monitoring system solves cheating and verification
The CTBT is a key candidate for provisional ratification
With regard to … are less ideological.
The CTBT is fully verifiable- synergies among monitoring tech means that cheaters will get caught
GSU Round 4
versus Trinity BH
2AC
TURN--Abdicating political engagement causes extinction
Boggs1997(Carl, Professor of Political Sience – National University, Theory & Society 26, December, p. 773-4)
The decline of the public sphere AND had vanished from civil society.75
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5. Turn - Life Affirming - nuclear death images reaffirm the value of human life – the only way to love is to experience
nuclear fear
Fox 1985 [Michael Allen , AND . Groarke) p. 127]
Nor can we rid ourselves of AND often the road to their transcendence.
7. Turn - Prevention – failure to imagine nuclear war causes denial and makes nuclear conflict more likely
Lenz 1990 [Millicent, Professor AND ) p. 9-10]
Since Americans have escaped the devastation AND moreover, takes a psychic toll.
8. TURN—Strategic decisions are inevitable. Dismissing risk calculus legitimizes neoconservative adventurism.
Freier 2007 (Nathan P. AND Assessment,” Strategic Studies Institute) Bankey
Risk in Webster’s is “the AND interests of equal or greater importance.
1. Violence is inherent in human nature – play, toddlers, violent fantasies and literature, sports, social metaphors and
self defense all prove
Pinker, 2002
Steven, phD from Harvard in experimental psychology, director of the Center for Cognitive Neuroscience at MIT,
Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology at Harvard, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature”, p. 316-
317
Boys in all cultures spontaneously engage AND they learn not to aggress."44
Violence continues to preoccupy the mind AND AIDS, the War on Cancer).
In fact, the entire question AND from those of their vilified counterparts.
Even if representations shape reality, recognizing evolution is a better way to deal with representations – the
alternative is to give all power to elites and give up the attempt to expose falsehoods
Pinker, 2002
Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology at Harvard, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature”, p. 217-
218
Recognizing that we are equipped with AND look good or to sell products.
But we can best protect ourselves AND to understand how they are promulgated.
Any theory which contradicts evolution will be destroyed

Pinker, 2002
Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology at Harvard, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature”, p.
30/31
IN 1755 SAMUEL JOHNSON wrote that AND segregating them into a parallel universe.
AT: T
We meet they belong to the US
Kristensen 2005 (Hans M. AND Resources Defense Council, February) Bankey
The contradiction also colors NATO’s position AND S. nuclear weapons in Europe.
200 B61s now

Van Der Zwaan 2009 (Bob van der Zwaan, Ph.D., is senior scientist at the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands
and Columbia University's Lenfest Center for Sustainable Energy, “Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for
Disarmament?, Report for the Pugwash Conference, http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/time_for_disarmament.htm)
Bankey
The total number of US tactical AND
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in Europe anno 2009.[1]
US determines NATO policy

Diakov et. al. 2004 (Anatoli Diakov, Ph.D., Professor of Physics at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology
and since 1991 the Director, Eugene Miasnikov, Ph.D is a senior research scientist, Timur Kadyshev, Ph.D., senior
staff scientist at the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics
and Technology, “Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Problems of Control and Reduction,”
http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/en/NSNW_en_v1b.pdf) Bankey
Though NATO official documents and statements AND , to include those in Europe"
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Liberty Dillard/Garrett (CTBT) [Rohan]
2AC Add-Ons
US ratification is key to prevent South Asian nuclear arms racing
Bureau of Arms Control, 10-8-1999
[U.S. Department of State Bureau of Arms Control, "CTBT: Regional Issues and U.S. Interests," Fact Sheet,
http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/ctbt/news/fs_991008_adherence.htm, accessed 10-9-9, mss]
India and Pakistan promise to adhere to the Treaty * At the UN General Assembly in September 1998, the Indian and
… U.S. rejects this treaty, Indian and Pakistani adherence could be all but precluded.
This causes rapid escalation to nuclear war

Fisher and Dori, Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center senior policy analyst and research associate (respectively),
98
[Richard and John, "The Strategic Implications Of China's nuclear Aid To Pakistan," 6-16-1998,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/EM532.cfm, mss]
Because India will continue to grow in strength relative to Pakistan, … and could escalate rapidly from a conventional
conflict to an actual nuclear exchange.
This is the most likely global nuclear war

Fai, Kashmiri American Council Executive Director, 2001
[Dr. Ghulam Nabi, “India-Pakistan Summit and the Issue of Kashmir,” July 8, Washington Times,
http://www.pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html, mss]
The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and … that is home to one
fifth of total human race. We will support any initiative that will bring Pakistan and India into greater harmony and
amity.
CTBT solves conflict and tensions that lead to Middle East war
Israel participated actively in the negotiation of the CTBT. Throughout those negotiations, the …about inspections.
Inspections will reinforce confidence about the benign nature of activities in the region.
Impact is nuclear war

Steinbach, Center for Research on Globalization, 3-2-2002
[John, http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html, accessed 2006ish, mss]
Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn …) is not reversed soon-
for whatever reason- the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration."
Japan prolif 2AC

No chance of Japanese prolif-
A. Economic suicide
Mochizuki, George Washington University political science and international affairs professor, and GWU Elliot School
of International Affairs chair in Japan-U.S. Relations, 7-1-2007
[Mike, "Japan Tests the Nuclear Taboo," The Nonproliferation Review, informaworld, mss]
Such a move would also violate bilateral agreements that enable Japan to …sell uranium only to NPT member
states.38
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B. Feasibility- transparency and lack of testing ground prevent Japanese prolif

Endo, Atomic Energy Commission of Japan former vice chair, 8-23-2007
[Tetsuya, "How Realistic Is a Nuclear-Armed Japan?" Policy Forum Online,
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/07063Endo.html]
Technologically, Japan is capable of developing nuclear weapons …suitable place for such a test in Japan.
C. International standing
Furukawa, Japan Science and Technology Agency research fellow and Izumi, University of Shizuoka professor, 7-19-
2007
[Katsuhisa and Hajime, "Not Going Nuclear: Japan's Response to North Korea's Nuclear Test," Nautilus Institute,
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/07053IzumiFurukawa.html]
Perhaps even more importantly, Tokyo today aspires to enhance its diplomatic standing … against North Korea's
nuclear weapons programs.
Turn- strengthening the non-proliferation regime is key to prevent Japanese prolif

Campbell and Sunohara, CSIS International Security Program director, 2004
[Kurt, National Security chair and CSIS ISP director, former deputy assistant secretary of defense at the Pentagon
from 1995 to 2000, former director on the National Security Council in 1994, former associate professor of public policy
and international relations and assistant director for the Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F.
Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and International Institute for Strategic Studies and Council on
Foreign Relations member; and Tsuyoshi, CSIS ISP visiting fellow, “Japan: Thinking the Unthinkable,” in The Nuclear
Tipping Point, mss]
The Japanese have long held that the best way …had to join the nuclear bandwagon.
Turn- CTBT is key to extended deterrence with Japan

Furukawa, Monterey Institute for International Studies’ Center for Nonprolif Studies researcher, 2003
[Katsuhisa, former Council on Foreign Relations research associate working on Japan, former Chief of Policy Planning
Staff at the Reform of Heisei, an NGO specializing in promoting political and economic reform in Japan, "Japan's
Nuclear Option: Security, Politics, and Policy in the 21st Century," Stimson Center, December,
http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=91, mss]
As noted before, the Japanese Foreign Ministry has continued to …Stockpile Stewardship Program will be steadily
pursued.
[Matt note: MOFA = Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs]
US-China ratification solves 6 party talks- leads to North Korean ratification

Choubey, Carnegie Nonprolif Program deputy director, 2007
[Deepti, 11-7, former director of the Peace and Security Initiative (PSI) for the Ploughshares Fund, formerly worked for
Ambassador Nancy Soderberg at the International Crisis Group, "A CHANCE FOR NUCLEAR LEADERSHIP," States
News Service, l/n]
China could conceivably be persuaded to do so …six parties -- the U.S. and China -- ratified the treaty.
U.S. ratification of CTBT key to getting China on board and that’s key to getting North Korea to ratify.
Arias, Nobel Peace Prize Winner, 2008
(Oscar., President of Costa Rica international spokesman for disarmament and democracy promotion. "The
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban T reaty (CTBT): The Way Forward", September 2008,
http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Spectrum/2008_Sept_spectrum11_p4-6.pdf). jt
China has openly indicated that it is looking towards the … the Six-Party Talks, particularly after the U.S. ratification is
secured.
Turn- solving North Korea is key to prevent a nuclear Japan

Kurosawa, Osaka University School of International Public Policy law professor, 9-1-2004
[Mitsuru, "Moving beyond the debate on a nuclear Japan," The Nonproliferation Review, informaworld, mss]
Given this tentative conclusion that a nuclear-armed Japan is very …Japan will not diminish and may even intensify.
Solving North Korea prevents Japanese prolif- removes the motive

Tomohiko, Australian National University Department of International Relations PhD candidate, 5-21-2009
[Satake, "Japan’s Nuclear Policy: Between Non-Nuclear Identity and US Extended Deterrence," Nautilus Institute,
http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/apsnet/policy-forum/2009/japans-nuclear-policy]
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It is highly unlikely that Japan will immediately … while maintaining its non-nuclear national identity in the years to
come.
No threshold- the broader alliance solves the link

Schoff, IFPA Asia-Pacific Studies associate-director, March 2009
[James L., Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis specialist in East Asian Security and non-proliferation issues,
"Realigning Priorities: The U.S.-Japan Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence,"
http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf]
A key challenge is the fact that perceptions are …as long as the alliance remains strong.
India Relations 2AC

US-India relations are down now—nuclear deals being blocked by US with the G8—and the only way to solve this is
by ratifying CTBT
Sud, Investment strategies analyst, 9
Hari, 9/18, “New delays mar Indo-U.S. nuclear deal,” UPI Asia,
http://www.upiasia.com/Politics/2009/09/18/new_delays_mar_indo-us_nuclear_deal/8114/ rmg
Another setback for India was the call by … closing the door on the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal unless India signs the
CTBT.
US-India relations low now

Karthikeya, CSIS Hills Government Research Program, 9/28/09
Raja, “India's CTBT debate: Conviction or Confusion,” http://csis.org/blog/indias-ctbt-debate-conviction-or-confusion-
raja-karthikeya rmg
The U.S.-sponsored Security Council resolution on non-proliferation …non-existent "no first-use" policy respectively.
China will ratify if US does-backchannel talks have already confirmed

Gulati, Observer Research Foundation, 9
Sahib, Summer, “The US Domestic Debate on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal Under the Obama Administration:
Implications for India,” http://www.observerindia.com/cms/export/orfonline/modules/analysis/attachments/implications-
for-india_1253193126213.pdf rmg
There have been various speculations about the …any further complication of the nuclear deal.28
Link Turn—pressuring China on proliferation increases US-India relations

Karthikeya, CSIS Hills Government Research Program, 9/28/09
Raja, “India's CTBT debate: Conviction or Confusion,” http://csis.org/blog/indias-ctbt-debate-conviction-or-confusion-
raja-karthikeya rmg
And while India welcomed Obama's Prague speech and … sharing on this issue between the two governments.
No link—High level statements and US will just share test data with India to restore relations
Bagchi, Writer Times of India, 9/26/09
Indrani, “India to drive tough bargain as US pushes hard for CTBT,”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/india/India-to-drive-tough-bargain-as-US-pushes-hard-for-
CTBT/articleshow/5057708.cms rmg
With Anil Kakodkar, secretary in the Department …if the right to test is signed away.
No impact—U.S. India Relations are resilient

Fernandes and Marks, India’s Defense Minister 2
[George and Simon, India’s Defense Minister and Special Correspndent, 2002, News Hour with Jim Lehrer August
29th]
George Fernandes: Our relations with the United States … more potential for growth as both sides learn to trust one
another.
T-Reduce 2AC
1. We meet- the CTBT prohibits nuclear tests and other nuclear explosions
Jonas, Counsel on Nuclear Strategy for DOE, 07
David, Adjunct Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center and George Washington University Law School,
“SYMPOSIUM: EXISTING AND EMERGING LEGAL APPROACHES TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE TWENTY-
FIRST CENTURY: THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY: CURRENT LEGAL STATUS IN THE
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UNITED STATES AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF A NUCLEAR TEST EXPLOSION,” NYU Journal of International Law
and Politics, l/n, rmg
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) n1 prohibits … 136 have ratified it, the treaty still has not entered
into force. N3
AND 2 –A) Reduce is meaningless in the resolution without defining role or missions
B) Counter-interpretation- 15 Nuclear missions---we reduce multiple
Oelrich, FAS Strategic Security Program director, Jan 2005
[Ivan, "Missions for NuclearWeapons after theCold War," Occasional Paper No. 3, Federation of American Scientists,
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/non-proliferation_and_arms_control/missionsaftercwrptfull.pdf, mss]
Table 2
Nuclear Missions
1 Survive and … terminate a regional conventional war
Substantial means considerable in importance
thefreedictionary.com ("substantial", accessed on 8-18-09, http://www.thefreedictionary.com/substantial). jt
substantial (sb-stnshl)
adj.
1. Of, relating to, or …; well-to-do.
We meet- plan removes the option to test which exists to hedge against future uncertainties over long-term nuclear
weapons viability
3. Counter Standards
A. Aff ground- their definition forces the aff to concede the link to deterrence to be topical- means the aff can’t make
link turns or even defensive arguments- this skews the debate by forcing an unrealistic burden on the aff.
B. Education – CTBT is the most timely affirmative with the biggest lit base. It’s essential to any discussion of the NPT
because it’s an unfulfilled obligation under that treaty, which makes it the core of the topic.
4. Prefer reasonability—competing interpretations always moves the goal line and therefore never creates a
predictable topic.
5. Don’t vote on potential abuse its like a potential DA
6. Literature checks abuse—CTBT has the broadest lit base.
Kentucky Leadership Advantage

Obama’s international popularity is not translating into cooperation - soft power consolidation is necessary – more
concrete action on nuclear policy is key.
Ghitis, independent commentator on world affairs, 2009. (Frida., ": Obama Must Parlay Soft Power Gains into Real
Results", 4-9-09, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3587). jt
When viewed through a wide lens, ...Obama will have to score more solid results.
Not ratifying CTBT has eroded our soft power and leadership– it makes us look hypocritical. Others perceive our
nuclear weapons policies more than anything else.
Stanley, professor of foreign policy at Georgetown, 2007. (Elizabeth., Ph.D. in political science. "International
Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy", independent research project for the Advanced Concepts Group at Sandia National
Laboratories, February 2007, http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-control.cgi/2007/070903.pdf). Jt
Seen in light of this wider debate .... The strategic interaction is complex and incredibly difficult to model.
Ratification of CTBT will do more than any other measure to show the world that it respects the views of the
international community and that we’re committed to multilateralism.
Joseph, Policy Analyst Senate Foreign Relations, 2009.
(Jofi., "Renew the Drive for Ratification", The Washington Quarterly, April 2009, http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-
issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/testing/PDFs/09apr_Joseph%5B1%5D.pdf).
Senate ratification of the CTBT ...free of nuclear weapons must include the entry into force of the nuclear test ban
treaty.
Soft power is critical to effective US leadership – it builds alliances that prevent counterbalancing and sustains
domestic support. Resulting multilateral cooperation is necessary to deal with terrorism and every global threat
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Jervis, Professor of IR at Colombia, 2009. (Robert., Ph.D. from UC Berkley. "UNIPOLARITY: A Structural Perspective",
January 2009, Project Muse). jt
To say that the system is unipolar ... vision and believe that its leadership is benign.
Terrorism risks world war and extinction, even if it doesn’t work

Sid-Ahmed, 04
(Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, ’04, Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705,
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
What would be the consequences ... infects the whole planet, we will all be loser
Credible adherence to multilateralism builds alliances that prevents counterbalancing and overstretch that would
destroy US leadership.
Grygiel, Professor of IR at John Hopkins, 2006. (Jakub., Ph.D. in political science. "Imperial Alliances", Orbis, Vol 50,
Issue 2, 2-8-09, Science Direct). jt
But the fact that the United States ...increasing that nation's sphere of influence to the detriment of American interests.
US decline won’t be peaceful – it leads to global chaos & WMD conflicts – mending our image is vital
Brzezinkski, Profess or foreign policy at John Hopkins, 2005 (Zbigniew., Ph.D. in International Affairs, former National
Security Advisor to Carter, and counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies., The Choice: Global
Domination of Global Leadership, Basic Book Publishing, pg 2-4). jt
History is a record of change, a reminder...in a common effort to shape a more secure international environment.
Kentucky IMS Advantage
Contention 3 is IMS
Quick entry into force is key to the effectiveness of the IMS – further delays risk collapse
Aust et al, Professor of engineering at George Washington, 2008
(Anthony, Deputy Legal Adviser of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London and Legal Adviser of the UK
Mission to the UN in New York. Professor of Engineering at The George Washington University, focusing on
monitoring and verification systems, digital signal processing, controls and systems theory and information systems.
“A new look at the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty (CTBT),” International Group on Global Security, September,
http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/External_Reports/A_New_Look_at_the_Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-
Ban_Treaty.pdf) sjd
In addition to the political arguments put ... as States lose interest and decrease their funding.
5 meteors every year can be mistaken for nuclear weapons--IMS distinguishes meteors from nuclear explosions –
solving accidental nuclear war.
Clarke, in the Journal nature, 2002
(Tom, Association of British Science Writers Award for the Best Feature on a Science Subject in a Specialist
Periodical, “Microphones tell asteroids from A-bombs”, Nature, July 17,
http://www.nature.com/news/2002/020717/full/news020715-4.html) sjd
Free data from a global array of microphones ... tell just how many Tunguskas we can expect".
That results in extinction.
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PR Newswire, April 29, 1998, (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, “NEJM Study Warns of Increasing Risk of
Accidental Nuclear Attack”)
An 'AnchorAnchoraccidental' nuclear attack would ... with billions of casualties worldwide
IMS is key to detect and prepare for volcanic eruptions.

CTBTO, 2006
(“Potential civil and scientific applications”, CTBTO Spectrum, Vol 8, July,
http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/content/reference/outreach/spectrum_issues_singles/ctbto_spectrum_8/p20_21.pdf) sjd
Besides its mandate, to monitor the potential occurrence ... tool to other, already existing, monitoring systems.
Volcanoes put over a billion people at risk – better monitoring is key to solve.
National Geographic, 2002
(“Volcanoes Loom as Sleeping Threat for Millions”, June 14,
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/15889420.html) sjd
Researchers have estimated that more than one billion people... has erupted at least 15 times in the last 400 years.
IMS is key to nuclear forensics and attirbution

Ban_Treaty.pdf) sjd
The problem of identifying the attacker...however, until the Treaty enters into force
A nuclear terrorist attack on Russia is inevitable—nuclear forensics prevents it from causing US-Russia war.
Dunlop and Smith, Livermore Lab, 2006
(William, scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories and Harold, distinguished visiting scholar and
professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California at Berkeley, “Who did it? Using international
forensics to detect and deter nuclear terrorism,” Arms Control Today, October 1,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_10/CVRForensics sjd
Although Washington has naturally focused on.......constituencies that appropriate action must wait until the evidence
is clear.
US-Russia war is the most likely scenario for extinction

Bostrom, Oxford philosophy faculty, March 2002
[Nick, “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Journal of Evolution and
Technology, Vol. 9, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html, mss]
A much greater existential risk emerged ...thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Liberty DG 1AC Cites
Not enough votes to get CTBT to pass in the senate

Isaacs, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 2009
(John,” A strategy for achieving Senate approval of the CTBT” April, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-
edition/features/strategy-achieving-senate-approval-of-the-ctbt)
At present, there are 56 Democratic …finish line of a 10-mile hike.
Thus we offer the following plan:

The United States Federal Government should ratify and implement the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
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Contention 1 is Global Ratification
Passing the plan leads to global CTBT ratification

McGrath, CNS (Center for Nonproliferation Studies) research associate, 09
[Keegan, 7-8, Monterey Institute for International Studies; James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "Battle
Lines Being Drawn in the CTBT Debate: an Analysis of the Strategic Posture Commission's Arguments against U.S.
Ratification," http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_us_ratification.html, mss]
Although maintaining that the treaty is held up in … in the architecture of the nonproliferation regime.
U.S. ratification of CTBT is key to getting China, India, Pakistan, and Israel on board
Choubey, deputy director of Nonproliferation, 2009.
(Deepti., "April Perspectives from CTBTO", April 2009,

http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Spectrum/2009/2009_April_Spectrum12_p10-11.pdf). jt
Almost counter-intuitively, senators … could help with security-building.
If it came down to just a few holdouts the ratification rules would be amended
Although the likelihood of such … of the entry into force requirements.
Contention 2 is Proliferation
A) Internal Links
US ratification of CTBT strengthens our ability for multilateral imposition of sanctions for non-proliferation
Aacton and Perkovich, associate and director of the Nonprolif program at Carnegie, 2009.
(James M., George., "Defending U.S. Leadership on Disarmament", 7-7-09,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=23354&prog=zgp&proj=znpp&zoom_highlight=CTBT+). jt
The US frequently finds itself … has recognized, except that of George W. Bush.
The international community has powerful non-proliferation sanctioning tools—consensus and will are key
Kanwar, Professor Loyola Law School, 09
Vik, LLM from NYU, “Two Crises of Confidence: Securing Non-Proliferation and the Rule of Law Through Security
Council Resolutions,” 35 Ohio N.U.L. Rev. 171, l/n rmg
The use of Chapter VII sanctions multiplied during …Security Council's power to enforce nonproliferation. n305
CTBT ratification solves US prolif leadership – key to stop prolif

Choubey, Carnegie Endowment Nonprolif deputy director, -2007
[Deepti, 11-7 former director of the Peace and Security Initiative (PSI) for the Ploughshares Fund, formerly worked for
News Service, l/n]
Whoever wins in 2008, the most …prevent the emergence of more nuclear weapon states.
CTBT ratification key to stop collapse of NPT starting with Article VI

Wable, J.D. from Brooklyn Law School, 2008
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(Kesav Murthy., "The U.S.-India Strategic Nuclear Partnership: A Debilitating Blow to the Non-Proliferation Regime",
Brooklyn Journal of International Law, Vol 33, Issue 719, 2008, l/n). jt
Contemplating the difficulties that … and threaten the very survival of the treaty itself.
NPT is critical to preventing proliferation it is the only possible framework for international cooperation
Thranert, Senior fellow German security policy group, 08
Oliver, Spring, “Would we really miss the nuclear nonproliferation treaty?” International Journal, rmg
The jury is still out on whether … the destabilization of international order.
B) Impacts
We’re on the brink of runaway proliferation- it’s already underway by at least 6 new countries and could be undertaken
by 40
Roche is National Nuclear Campaigner at Greenpeace UK 08
Pete “The Civil Nuclear Power Revival and Nuclear Proliferation,” May 2008 http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk
<http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk> )
The history of the International … weapons-useable plutonium and enriched uranium. [4]
And proliferation guarantees massive nuclear escalation and war – deterrence fails.
Utgoff, Institute for Defense Analyses Deputy Director, 2002
(Victor, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” Survival, vol. 44, p85-102, ldg)
Worse still, in a highly proliferated … of dead cities or even whole nations.
Contention 3 is Israel
Ratifying the CTBT before September 24th is key—UN non-proliferation conference chaired by Obama is a critical
global proliferation signal
Goodenough, CNS international editor, 09
Patrick, 9/9, “Test-Ban Treaty Advocates See ‘Window of Opportunity’ Opened by Obama,”
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/53698 rmg
Indonesia last June said that it … “nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament powerhouse.”
Getting international support for non-prolif is key to Iran sanctions—and meetings in September give the opportunity
Coats et. al. Former Senators, 09
Daniel, Charles Robb, Charles Ward, “Taking Iran Seriously,”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203440104574402583170409334.html?mod=googlenews_wsj rmg
It is critical that Mr. Obama use … on Iran without international cooperation.
Without action on Iran by this September Israel will strike

Zenko, Council on Foreign Relations Fellow, 09
Micah, 8/30, “Israel has Iran in its sights,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-zenko30-

2009aug30,0,7428703.story rmg
Iran has until late September to respond … U.S. permission, or even a warning.
Iran would certainly draw US into a war if Israel strikes

Wall Street Journal, 09
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8/30, “Israel, Iran and Obama,”

It's no wonder, then, that … into a larger Mideast war.
War with Iran will go nuclear, cause worldwide proliferation and conflict, and destroy the world
Hirsch, October 17, 2005
(Jorge E., professor of physics at UC San Diego, Ph.D. from UChicago, "Israel, Iran, and the US: Nuclear War, Here
We Come," http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=7649)
Once the U.S. enters the conflict, … an absolute certainty. Bye-bye, world.
Strikes on Iran would destabilize the Middle East—and cut off Strait of Hormuz
Hughes, Chicago geopolitics analyst at Examiner, 09
Michael, 9/9, “Examiner Bio Why bombing Iran's nuclear sites will not be easy,” http://www.examiner.com/x-4454-
Chicago-Geopolitics-Examiner~y2009m9d9-Why-bombing-Irans-nuclear-sites-will-not-be-easy rmg
So sophisticated is Iran’s intelligence … Hamas in Gaza to inflict damage in Israel.
Strait of Hormuz is key to global economy

Mead, fellow at council on foreign relations, 2008
(Walter, “Iran’s Provocation”, Wall Street Journal, 1-10-08, lexis)
The link between global freedom of … perhaps far greater than the Iranians expect.
Economic collapse causes nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld, Professor IR at Princeton University, 2008
(Aaron and Gabriel, visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, Wall Street
Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html)
Pressures to cut defense spending, … from internal travails with external adventures.
Contention 4 is multilateralism
CTBT is the single best policy for renewing multilateral institutions
issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/testing/PDFs/09apr_Joseph%5B1%5D.pdf).
Senate ratification of the CTBT … CTBT ratification during his first term in office.
Multilateral institutions key to prevent nuclear war

Dyer, Ph.D. Military History U of London, 04
Gwynee, 12/30 ,“The End of War Our Task Over the Next Few Years is to Transform the World of Independent States
into a Genuine Global Village,” The Toronto Star, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm rmg
War is deeply embedded in … within the context of the existing state system.
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Liberty Garrett/Woodruff (CTBT) [Rohan]
Liberty GW (Garrett and Woodruff)

Note: there was a team swap between Poapst, Turnage, Garrett and Woodruff at the Richmond tournament.
Information from GSU, Clarion and Kentucky applies to the team before the swap.
Richmond and Vanderbilt 1AC

Plan: The United States Federal Government should ratify and implement the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty.
Contention 1: Proliferation
by 40
Pete “The Civil Nuclear Power Revival and Nuclear Proliferation,” May 2008 http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk )asa
The history of the International AND plutonium and enriched uranium. [4]
We’ll Isolate Four Internal Links
First is US leadership-it creates international support and barriers to prolif

News Service, l/n]
Whoever wins in 2008, the most AND for the next Congress and President
Second is NPT Credibility-CTBT restores faith and leads to a successful RevCon

issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/testing/PDFs/09apr_Joseph%5B1%5D.pdf)
Senate ratification of the CTBT AND violate their IAEA obligations.
NPT collapse would end the nonproliferation norm resulting in massive proliferation.
Thranert, Senior fellow German security policy group, 08
Oliver, Spring, “Would we really miss the nuclear nonproliferation treaty?” International Journal, rmg
The jury is still out on AND destabilization of international order
Independently RevCon failure sparks a new wave of proliferation

Raghavan, President of the Centre for Security Analysis, 09
Director of the Delhi Policy Group and, Chennai. [V. R. Raghavan (Council member of the International Institute of
Strategic Studies, Adviser to the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation & Disarmament, Former
commissioner of the UN Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, and Visiting fellow at CISAC, Stanford University
and the Henry L. Stimson Center), “Nuclear Abolition: Need for a Phased Plan,” Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: a
debate, Edited By: George Perkovich and James M. Acton, Adelphi Paper 396, 2009]
Should the 2010 NPT Review Conference AND United States give its allies.
Third is International cooperative action-CTBT strengthens multilateral cooperation against proliferators

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The US frequently finds itself trying AND , except that of George W. Bush.
Fourth, ratification is key to stopping a new round of modernization

As Obama himself recognizes, AND fielding multiple warhead ballistic missiles.10
And, modernization efforts will spark global proliferation

Civak, nuclear weapons policy analyst, 2000
(Robert, Managing the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, July, http://www.trivalleycares.org/
ManagingStockpileReport.pdf)
The DOE Stockpile Stewardship Option AND can only exacerbate this problem.
Next is the impacts
The impact is nuclear war-deterrence fails in a proliferated world

Worse still, in a highly proliferated AND to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.
Prolif leads to nuclear war, accidental launch, and nuclear terrorism- prolif good arguments are wrong-optimists make
flawed assumptions and non-empirical theories.
Glenn, Chronicle staff, 9-2-3004
[David, "A Bomb In Every Backyard," Chronicle of Higher Eduation, ebsco, mss]
Mr. Busch has spent the last seven years—AND that means, if you ever had any doubt, that there's no good
proliferation.
Nuclear terrorism causes a full-scale nuclear war

Spiece, Associate @ Gibson, Dunn and Cruthcr Washington DC 2006 (William and Mary Law Review, February 2006,
lexis)
The potential consequences of AND and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons

PR Newswire, April 29, 1998
(Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, “NEJM Study Warns of Increasing Risk of Accidental Nuclear Attack”)
An 'AnchorAnchoraccidental' nuclear attack AND billions of casualties worldwide
Contention 2: Leadership
Obama’s popularity isn’t translating into cooperation. Soft power consolidation is necessary-concrete action on nuclear
policy is key.
Ghitis, independent commentator on world affairs, 2009.
(Frida., ": Obama Must Parlay Soft Power Gains into Real Results", 4-9-09,
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3587).
When viewed through a wide lens AND have to score more solid results
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CTBT ratification is the NUMBER ONE signal that the US respects international community-revamps our soft power
and independently revives multilateralism.
First, a pledge to work toward CTBT AND to demonstrate the U.S. commitment to disarmament
And, Multilateralism key to prevent nuclear war

Dyer, Ph.D. Military History U of London, 04
Gwynee, 12/30 ,“The End of War Our Task Over the Next Few Years is to Transform the World of Independent States
into a Genuine Global Village,” The Toronto Star, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm rmg
War is deeply embedded in our history AND context of the existing state system.
Nuclear issues are key to change perception of US leadership-solves multiple issues.

Stanley, professor of foreign policy at Georgetown, 2007.
(Elizabeth., Ph.D. in political science. "International Perceptions of US Nuclear Policy", independent research project
for the Advanced Concepts Group at Sandia National Laboratories, February 2007,
http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-control.cgi/2007/070903.pdf). Jt
Seen in light of this wider debate AND complex and incredibly difficult to model
Credible adherence to multilateralism builds alliances that prevents counterbalancing and overstretch that would
destroy US leadership.
Grygiel, Professor of IR at John Hopkins, 2006.
(Jakub., Ph.D. in political science. "Imperial Alliances", Orbis, Vol 50, Issue 2, 2-8-09, Science Direct).
But the fact that the United States AND influence to the detriment of American interests.
Maintenance of U.S. global leadership is vital to preventing numerous scenarios for nuclear conflict
Thayer, 06 (Bradley, "In Defense of Primacy," The National Interest, November/December 2006, p. lexis)
Throughout history, peace and stability AND solving the world's ills.

Although maintaining that the treaty is held AND the architecture of the nonproliferation regime
CTBT is verifiable- North Korea proves the IMS solves AND clandestine tests would have no military value
Nelson, Union of Concerned Scientists senior scientist, 2009
[Robert, March/April Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow in science and technology, previously he worked on
technical arms control and nonproliferation issues in the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton
University, "3 reasons why the U.S. Senate should ratify the test ban treaty," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, ebsco,
mss]
The CTBT is verifiable where AND nuclear weapons
Testing not key to maintain deterrence- SSP solves use computer testing
Perry et al., Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US chair, 2009
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[William Perry, 5-6, Stanford University professor and Preventive Defense Project co-director, former co-director of
Center for International Security and Cooperation, former Secretary of Defense; James R. Schlesinger, Commission
vice-chair, MITRE Board chair, consultant to the Departments of Defense and State, Defense Policy Board member,
and International Security Advisory Board member, American Academy of Diplomacy member, first U.S. Secretary of
Energy , former Secretary of Defense, former CIA director, former chair of the Atomic Energy Commission; AND Harry
Cartland, John Foster John Glenn, Morton Halperin, Lee Hamilton, Fred Ikle, Keith Payne, Bruce Tarter, Ellen
Williams, and James Woolsey, Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, "America’s
Strategic Posture: The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,"
United States Institute of Peace, http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf, mss]
First, knowledge gained from past nuclear AND U.S. warhead safety and reliability.
2AC Add-On's
Middle East War

CTBT solves conflict and tensions that lead to Middle East war
Israel participated actively AND activities in the region.
Impact is nuclear war

Steinbach, Center for Research on Globalization, 3-2-2002
[John, http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html, accessed 2006ish, mss]
Meanwhile, the existence of an AND trigger a world conflagration."
Volcanoes
Quick entry into force is key to the effectiveness of the IMS – further delays risk collapse
Ban_Treaty.pdf) sjd
In addition to the political AND decrease their funding.
IMS is key to detect and prepare for volcanic eruptions.

CTBTO, 2006
(“Potential civil and scientific applications”, CTBTO Spectrum, Vol 8, July,
http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/content/reference/outreach/spectrum_issues_singles/ctbto_spectrum_8/p20_21.pdf) sjd
Besides its mandate, to monitor AND existing, monitoring systems.
Volcanoes put over a billion people at risk – better monitoring is key to solve.
National Geographic, 2002
(“Volcanoes Loom as Sleeping Threat for Millions”, June 14,
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/15889420.html) sjd
Researchers have estimated that AND 15 times in the last 400 years.
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Kentucky Aff (Round 4) - Covert De-alert

Kentucky- Round 4 vs Mary Washington KS
Plan: The United States Federal Government should issue a top secret directive covertly removing all batteries from all
of its land-based nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missiles.
Contention One: Inadvertent Launch

US inadvertent launch is inevitable now- 6 independent reasons
1. Unauthorized launches- high alert guarantees unauthorized launches- air force mistakes PROVE safeguards alone
are insufficient
Blair et al, US nuclear command-and-control expert and former nuclear launch control officer, February 2008
[Bruce, from 1970 to 1974, Dr. Blair served in the U.S. Air Force, serving as a Minuteman ICBM launch control officer
and support officer for the Strategic Air Command’s Airborne Command Post, World Security Institute president,
Global Zero co-founder, former Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program senior fellow, former project
director at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, "Toward True Security,"
http://www.fas.org/press/_docs/Toward%20True%20Security%202008%20.pdf, mss]
Maintaining forces on high alert also increases the risk of unauthorized launches
The military was unaware of the missing warheads for 36 hours.
Status quo barriers are embarrassing- launch officers test and defeat them out of boredom with simple ingenuity and
elbow grease
Rosenbaum, Slate columnist, 8-31-2007
[Ron, "The Return of the Doomsday Machine?" Slate Magazine, http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/, mss]
One crew member even disclosed to me a flaw in the "command
American ingenuity! Can't beat it for finding a new way to end the world.
2. Human error- stress and mental breakdowns will lead to mistakes and war
Pikaev et al, Non-proliferation and Arms Reduction Center head, 2001
[Alexander Alexeevich, RAS IMEMO PMFC Non-Proliferation and Arms Reduction Center head, Assistant State Duma
Deputy, "De-alerting Russian and US nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers,"
http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html, mss]
The Role Of The Human Factor In Causing A War
it is precisely the human factor that constitutes the weakest link in the nuclear safety assurance system.
This is complicated by drug and alcohol use by launch officers

Boring, University of Washington computer science professor, 2001
[Alan, Dr. Borning's work with Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility resulted in a definitive analysis of the
role of computer failure in accidental nuclear war, "Computer System Reliability and Nuclear War," http://www-
ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/chapters/borning.html, mss]
Another source of failure is human operator error.
about alcohol, drug abuse, and aberrant behavior among American military personnel with access to nuclear weapons.
3. Computer error- complex military codes are doomed to fail

Naturally, in the latter case, the level of nervousness
tragic consequences due to their intrinsic lack of reliability.
4. False warnings- the high rate of false alarms is not only intrinsically dangerous but demonstrates a significant
probability that false alarms will OVERLAP increasing their credibility- spurring nuclear war
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Phillips, physicist and radar technician, and Starr, nuclear engineer, May-June 2004
[Alan and Steven, "Let's go No-LOW," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, general onefile, mss]
The most likely cause of accidental nuclear war is "launch on warning"
when forces are placed on alert, the complexity of warning systems may not only cease to provide redundancy--it may
amplify mistakes. (6)
AND- Timing is key- high alert status reduces decision time forcing nuclear launch
Blair, US nuclear command-and-control expert and former nuclear launch control officer, 10-13-2007
[Bruce, from 1970 to 1974, Dr. Blair served in the U.S. Air Force, serving as a Minuteman ICBM launch control officer
and support officer for the Strategic Air Command’s Airborne Command Post, World Security Institute president,
Global Zero co-founder, former Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program senior fellow, former project
director at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, "A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on the Alert Status
of U.S. Nuclear Forces," http://lcnp.org/disarmament/opstatus-blair.htm, mss]
If their early warning assessment determines that a
would “drive the president inevitably toward [such] a decision.”[8]
5. Cyber attacks- electronic backdoors allow false launch orders and credible false-warnings
[Ron, "A Real Nuclear Option for the Nominees," http://www.slate.com/id/2191104, mss]
So it's insanely short-fused as it is. But when I spoke to Blair in Washington last week
powerful argument for Blair's de-alerting proposals.
Motive and opportunity exists- sophisticated tactics easily overwhelm safeguards

Fritz, International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament researcher and former Army officer and
consultant, 2009
[Jason, master of international relations at Bond University, "Hacking Nuclear Command and Control," accessed 9-30-
9 via google cache, mss]
This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism
could be enough to launch nuclear weapons on its own, without the need for compromising command and control
centres directly.
Easy to create appearance of detonation through EMP burst

Fritz, former Army officer and consultant, 2009
[Jason, International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament researcher, master of international
relations at Bond University, "Hacking Nuclear Command and Control," accessed 9-30-9 via google cache, mss]
Creating a false signal in these early warning
This could add pressure to the decision making process, and if coordinated precisely, could appear as a first round
EMP burst.
Some cyber-terror claims are exaggerated but these are real- lack of a unified preparation and difficulty of defending
against cyber-weakness prove
Despite the possibility of exaggerated claims
, there would also be considerable confusion as to the coordination of a relief effort (Carfano 2008, Lewis 2002).
Timing is key and makes it easy- cyber-deception need only be believable for 15 minutes
The US nuclear arsenal remains designed for the Cold War
would be equivalent to approximately 100,000 Hiroshima bombs (Blair 2008).
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6. Complacency makes the future is much more dangerous than the past
Martin, Stanley Foundation program officer, July 2008
[Matt, "Avoiding an Accidental Nuclear War," http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/articles.cfm?id=498, mss]
Common sense might indicate that better relations
succeeding in this new world will as well.
NEXT- is the risk calculus- you should give massive weight to the risk of accidental launch even if they severely
mitigate the case-
1. Probability- each risk factor builds on the other- in the end our chance of survival is no better than in Russian
roulette
Phillips, Physicians for Global Survival, April 2002
[Alan, retired physician who did radar research for the British army during World War II, "20 Mishaps That Might Have
Started Accidental Nuclear War," http://www.web.net/~cnanw/20mishaps.htm, mss]
The probability of actual progression to nuclear war on
of the trigger at Russian roulette played with a 6 shooter.
This flips presumption aff

FAS, 11-26-2007
[Federation of American Scientists Security Blog, "A Rebuttal to Brown and Deutch Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal ,"
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/a_rebuttal_to_brown_and_deutch.php, mss]
There would be some sense in holding defenders of the status quo to less stringent
effort to move toward a global prohibition on nuclear weapons.
2. General nuclear incompetence is the icing on the cake- multiple recent US incidents prove the risk is too high
Martin, Stanley Foundation program officer, July 2008
[Matt, "Avoiding an Accidental Nuclear War," http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/articles.cfm?id=498, mss]
Finally, three disturbing lapses in US nuclear weapons safety
making accidents more prone to occur.
AND- Accidental nuclear attack triggers global nuclear war

The capability of delivering a sudden massive strike on the SNF of the adversary
weapons which are maintained on alert, in an exchange of massive nuclear strikes.
AND- Even without intentional escalation US inadvertent launch triggers Russian doomsday machine- causes
automatic extinction response
[Ron, "The Return of the Doomsday Machine?" Slate Magazine, http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/, mss]
"The nuclear doomsday machine." It's a Cold War term that has long seemed obsolete
Its code name was Perimetr. It went fully operational in January 1985. It is still in place."
Zombie doomsday retaliation means an accident will trigger automated extinction

Thompson, Wired senior editor, 9-21-2009
[Nicholas, "Inside the Apocalyptic Soviet Doomsday Machine," Wired,
http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/17-10/mf_deadhand?currentPage=all, mss]
Once initiated, the counterattack would be controlled by
one mistake that could end it all.
US-Russia war is the only scenario for extinction

Bostrom, Oxford philosophy faculty, March 2002
[Nick, “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Journal of Evolution and
Technology, Vol. 9, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html, mss]
A much greater existential risk emerged with the build
since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
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Even a one percent risk of extinction outweighs any impact or moral imperative
Bostrom, Oxford philosophy professor, July 2005
[Nick, Transcribed by Matt Struth, 4:38-6:12 of the talk at http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/44, accessed 2-2-
8, mss]
Now if we think about what just reducing the probability
people and ignore the potential that could be loss if people went extinct it should still have a high priority.
Contention Two: Solvency

De-alerting completely eliminates risk of accidents
Steinbruner, University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies director, June 2009
[Dr. John, Arms Control Association board chair, "Reframing De-Alert,"
http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Steinbruner.pdf, mss]
Most individuals not embedded in the contemporary
establish much higher standards of protection against unauthorized access.
Battery removal is more successful than warhead removal without any of the security costs
Feiveson et al, Princeton Science and Global Security Program co-director, 1999
[Harold, Princeton's Nuclear Policy Alternatives Research Program co-principal investigator, Senior Research Policy
Scientist at Princeton University's Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, The Nuclear Turning Point: A
Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-alerting of Nuclear Weapons, 118-125, mss]
They are therefore now considering other options, including
A third possibility would be to replace the aerodynamic missile nose cones with flat-faced covers, which would shelter
the warheads but not allow the missiles to fly a normal trajectory.
Missiles don’t fly without batteries

Dvorkin, Fourth Central Research Institute (Moscow) director, Feb 1999
[General Vladimir, recently retired from Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, now the Director of the Fourth Central
Research Institute in Moscow, which is responsible for strategic nuclear planning and policy. He is a top advisor to the
Russian Minister of Defense, General Igor Sergeyev and acts as a liaison to the U.S. military and the Department of
Defense, "Russian Roulette," http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/debate/comments.html, mss]
While the essence of the proposal is that there are a number of technical measures which
the missile would not fly anywhere until those on-board sources of power batteries are replaced.
AND- there’s no risk of leaks-

No-drama-Obama doesn’t leak- he runs a tight ship
Tomasky, Guardian American editor, 9-27-2008
[Michael, Democracy: A Journal of Ideas editor in chief and The American Prospect contributing editor, "Wall Street
bail-out: US election briefing How McCain made a drama out of a crisis," The Guardian (London) l/n, mss]
As I write, Congress has yet to reach a deal on the Wall Street bail-out.
beyond legitimate disagreement, no leaking, no grandstanding. He's run a tight ship, and the mantra is credited with
having a lot to do with getting him this far.
Nuclear secrets are kept- intensified controls

Weeks and Holdrenis, Harvard Science, Technology and Public Policy professor, 2000
[Jennifer, Havard John F. Kennedy School of Government Managing the Atom Project director, and John, served on
the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Balancing Scientific Openness and National Security, "Energy's
secrets: Finding the balance," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, l/n, mss]
But the openness trend has been reversed. In response to possible leaks
restrictions on international cooperation at Energy Department laboratories.
TNW operations prove nuclear secrets don’t leak- we removed all our TNW from Britain in total secrecy
Borger, Guardian diplomatic editor, 6-26-2008
[Julian, "US removes its nuclear arms from Britain: Exit of 110 gravity bombs ends 54-year presence: Change
happened secretly over years, say scientists," The Guardian, l/n, mss]
The US has removed its nuclear weapons from Britain
It's so puzzling why Nato goes about the reduction in total secrecy. Keeping this secret completely undercuts our
foreign policy interests."
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Cold war security mechanisms ensure secrecy of classified decisions

Aftergood, FAS Project on Government Secrecy director, Nov/Dec 2000
[Steven, Federation of American Scientists Project on Government Secrecy director, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
"Secrecy is back in fashion," ebscohost, mss]
The dominant attitude of the 106th Congress to government
"original classification authorities"-that is, officials who were authorized to designate an item of information as
classified-totalled 3,846.
Atomic secrecy is categorically different and extraordinary

Cheh, GW associate law professor, December 1982
[Mary, associate professor of law at the George Washington University Law Center in Washington, "Secrecy: Why is it
Still With Us?" , ebsco, mss]
Imagine a law that declared an entire body of scientific
atomic energy secrecy is like no other government secrecy.
Even if we lose the leaks debate accidents outweigh- leaks makes their impacts inevitable:
Leaks makes their prolif and deterrence impacts inevitable
Weeks and Holdrenis, Harvard Science, Technology and Public Policy professor, 2000
[Jennifer, Havard John F. Kennedy School of Government Managing the Atom Project director, and John, served on
the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Balancing Scientific Openness and National Security, "Energy's
secrets: Finding the balance," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, l/n, mss]
It is, of course, essential to protect nuclear secrets
by revealing what we know about other countries' nuclear programs.
Covertly de-alerting solves accidental and unauthorized launch and avoids dangerous re-alerting that turns the case
Podvig, Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation Research Director, 2006
[Pavel, former Center for Arms Control Studies fellow, and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Board of Directors member,
"Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch," Science and Global Security, 14:75–115, http://iis-
db.stanford.edu/pubs/21283/14_2-3Podvig.pdf, mss]
Another consideration that should be taken into account is that attempts to
Should an accident occur, no launchers would be available for an immediate attack, allowing enough time to recognize
the error.
GSU Aff Disclosure

by 40
Pete “The Civil Nuclear Power Revival and Nuclear Proliferation,” May 2008 http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk
<http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk> )asa
The history of the International Atomic... plutonium and enriched uranium
We solve proliferation – Three ways.

1). U.S. Prolif cred - CTBT ratification restores US prolif leadership.
News Service, l/n]
Whoever wins in 2008… more nuclear weapon states.
U.S. prolif leadership is key to stopping prolif and helps progress for disarmament at the 2010 NPT review.
Perry et. al, fromer Secretary of Defense, 2009. (William., "Aamerica's Strategic Posture: The Final Report of the
Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States", 2009,
http://www.usip.org/files/file/strat_posture_exec_sum.pdf). jt
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This is also an opportune… the 2010 NPT Review Conference.
2). NPT is collapsing now. CTBT ratification restores credibility for NPT
Kimball, Executive director of Arms Control, 2008
(Daryl, Aug 22. www.armscontrol.org/node/3300) sjd
Today, the 1996 Comprehensive…2000 NPT Review Conference document
NPT credibility is key to stop non-proliferation

Dhanapala, On the International Board at Martin Non-prolif center, 01
Jayantha, “The State of the Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime: 2001,”
http://www.un.org/disarmament/HomePage/HR/docs/2001/2001May21_France.pdf
For their part… a safer world for everybody
3). International cooperative action against proliferators - CTBT strengthens our ability for multilateral imposition of
sanctions and other actions against proliferators.
The US frequently finds… except that of George W. Bush.
The international community has powerful non-proliferation sanctioning tools—consensus and will are key
Kanwar, Professor Loyola Law School, 09
Vik, LLM from NYU, “Two Crises of Confidence: Securing Non-Proliferation and the Rule of Law Through Security
Council Resolutions,” 35 Ohio N.U.L. Rev. 171, l/n rmg
The use of Chapter VII sanctions… to enforce nonproliferation.
Impacts -
Proliferation guarantees massive nuclear escalation and war and deterrence fails.
Worse still, in a… dead cities or even whole nations.
Prolif leads to nuclear war, accidental launch, and nuclear terrorism- AND prolif good arguments are wrong- prefer our
empirical studies- optimists use bad research methodology and make flawed assumptions about rationality and
leaders learning the lessons of past conflict
Glenn, Chronicle staff, 9-2-3004
[David, "A Bomb In Every Backyard," Chronicle of Higher Eduation, ebsco, mss]
Mr. Busch has spent the… that there's no good proliferation.

lexis)
The potential consequences of the unchecked… the use of nuclear weapons.
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PR Newswire, April 29, 1998
(Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, “NEJM Study Warns of Increasing Risk of Accidental Nuclear Attack”)
An 'accidental' nuclear attack… billions of casualties worldwide
Contention Two – Israel
Ratifying the CTBT before September 24th is key—UN non-proliferation conference chaired by Obama is a critical
global proliferation signal
Goodenough, CNS international editor, 09
Patrick, 9/9, “Test-Ban Treaty Advocates See ‘Window of Opportunity’ Opened by Obama,”
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/53698 rmg
Indonesia last June.. disarmament powerhouse.
Getting international support for non-prolif is key to Iran sanctions—and meetings in September give the opportunity
Coats et. al. Former Senators, 09
Daniel, Charles Robb, Charles Ward, “Taking Iran Seriously,”
It is critical that… without international cooperation.

Although maintaining that the… the nonproliferation regime.
U.S. ratification of CTBT is key to getting China, India, Pakistan, and Israel on board – this solves for Middle East and
Asian arms races and increase regional security efforts.
Choubey, deputy director of Nonproliferation, 2009.
(Deepti., "April Perspectives from CTBTO", April 2009,
http://www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Spectrum/2009/2009_April_Spectrum12_p10-11.pdf). jt
Almost counter-intuitively… help with security-building.
Thus we offer the following plan:

The United States Federal Government should ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
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Liberty Poapst/Turnage (CTBT) [Rohan]
Liberty PT (Poapst & Turnage)

Note: there was a team swap between Poapst, Turnage, Garrett and Woodruff at the Richmond tournament.
Information from GSU, Clarion and Kentucky applies to the team before the swap. Both teams read CTBT at
Richmond.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention One: Inherency
Current NPR commitments maintain that nuclear weapons are still necessary for military options
Scott D. Sagan, CISAC Center for International Security and Cooperation co-director and political science professor. 6-
1-2009 (“The Case for No First Use” Survival 51:3, 163-182)jap
In his April 2009 speech … conventional military force’3.
Contention Two: Advantages

Advantage One: Proliferation
Proliferation is at its tipping point

Smith, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs 08/09
(Hon Stephen Smith MP Australian Minister For Foreign Affairs “Building Momentum: Australia, Nuclear Non-
Proliferation and Disarmament” http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/2009/090812_tange.html) mee
Nuclear weapons continue … non state actors.
Proliferation happens fast-nuclear hedging

Levite, Fellow at CISAC 2003 (Ariel, Visiting Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)
at Stanford University, “Never Say Never Again,” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/evnts/3863/LeviteAriel_2004-0513.pdf
<http://iis-db.stanford.edu/evnts/3863/LeviteAriel_2004-0513.pdf> )PRC
Japan provides the … the Middle East.
Current policy of calculated ambiguity makes a US nuclear response to perceived threats more likely.
Scott D. Sagan, Co-director of CISAC. June 1, 2009
(Scott Sagan is a professor of political science and co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation,
“The Case for No First Use” Survival 51:3, 163-182)jap
The Bush administration’s… chemical or biological attack.
We solve proliferation in four different ways:
First, NFU increases US Non-proliferation credibility-solves proliferation

Scott D. Sagan, Co-director of CISAC. June 1, 2009
(Scott Sagan is a professor of political science and co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation,
“The Case for No First Use” Survival 51:3, 163-182)jap
example emphasized that … against non-combatants21.
Second, NFU is key to international cooperation against potential proliferators, which also solves proliferation
Scott D. Sagan, professor of political science and co-director of Center for International Security And Cooperation.
June 1, 2009 (“The Case for No First Use” Survival 51:3, 163-182)jap
A US no-first-use … faces nuclear threats.
Third, NFU solves proliferation-changes international nuclear norms, and this is key to solve proliferation.
The Stanley Foundation 08
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(The Stanley Foundation “A new look at no first use of nuclear weapons,” August 22,
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm
<http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm> ,) mee
Participants noted that …destruction against noncombatants.”
Fourth, a no first use policy ends possible US first strike-stopping adversary proliferation
Jan Lodal <file:///C:\Users\Owner\AppData\Local\Temp\%20\%20bio> , principal deputy undersecretary of defense for
policy and as deputy for program analysis at the National Security Council, March 2001(Pledging 'No First Strike': A
Step Toward Real WMD Cooperation http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001_03/lodal)jap
Challenges to the …and rogue states.
And Impacts
First, Proliferation guarantees massive nuclear escalation and war-current deterrence fails
Utgoff, Institute for Defense Analyses Deputy Director, 2002 (Victor, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American
Ambitions,” Survival, vol. 44, p85-102, ldg)
Worse still, in a … even whole nations.
Proliferation increases risk of nuclear terrorism, accidental launch, regional nuclear war and NPT collapse-culminates
in extinction
Cirincione, Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007 (Joseph,
“Symposium: Apocalypse When?”, National Interest, November/December 2007, lexis, ldg)
Let me be clear: Nuclear … nuclear free-for-all.

lexis)
The potential consequences…of nuclear weapons
Accidental launch causes extinction

PR Newswire, April 29, 1998, (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, “NEJM Study Warns of Increasing Risk of
Accidental Nuclear Attack”)
An 'accidental' nuclear … casualties worldwide
NPT collapse causes nuclear war

Stares, vice president for conflict analysis and prevention US Institute of Peace, 2007 (Paul, “To Ban the Bomb, Sign
the Peace”, New York Times, January 30, 2007, lexis, ldg)
Of all the crises …to a nuclear war.
Advantage Two: Hegemony
A policy of first-use cripples US soft power globally.

Helfstein et al. 8 (Dr. Scott, Col. Michael Meese, Don Rassler, Maj. Reid Sawyer, Maj. Troy Schnack, Maj. Mathew
Sheiffer, Dr. Scott Silverstone, Maj. Scott Taylor, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/pdf/Terrorist_Deterrence.pdf)
In contrast to … outweigh potential benefits.
Soft Power is critical to maintaining public and international support for American hegemony
Daalder and Lindsay 3 (Ivo H. and James M., Senior Fellows in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution,
Summer, http://www.brookings.edu/dybdocroot/views/papers/daalder/20030814.pdf)
The more others … mean very little.
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Maintenance of U.S. global leadership is vital to preventing numerous scenarios for nuclear conflict—loss of U.S.
power turns the case in numerous ways
Thayer, 06 (Bradley, "In Defense of Primacy," The National Interest, November/December 2006, p. lexis)
Throughout history… the world's ills.
Plan: The United States federal government should adopt a nuclear no first use declaratory policy
Solvency:
The time where threat of first use was needed is over. Current analyses of the role of nuclear weapons are narrow and
exaggerated. We must now adopt a nuclear weapons no first use declaratory policy.
Is the threat … that deterrence fails’.
A No first use Declaratory policy enhances deterrence, reassurance, counterterrorism, and non-proliferation.
Declaratory policy and … nuclear-weapons acquisition.
No-First Use would continue and enhance deterrence and extended-deterrence commitments
Given the current …non-proliferation benefits.
No first use doctrines are credible-three reasons

The second objection … be significantly enhanced.
GSU Round 5
Proliferation Good Frontline

Asian proliferation would occur quickly-rivalries and overreacting
Rosen, Professor of National Security and Military Affairs at Harvard University, 2005 (Stephen, “After Proliferation:
What to Do If More States Go Nuclear”, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005, lexis)jap
Nuclear arms races might … by a nuclear Middle East
Chances of nuclear terrorism high-proliferation increases risk

Allison, Professor of Government Harvard University, 2007 (Graham, “Symposium: Apocalypse When?”, National
Interest, November/December 2007, lexis, ldg)
MUELLER IS entitled to his … way that it won't happen
Proliferation causes nuclear accidents-that destroys deterrence-3 reasons.

Sagan, professor political science Stanford University, 2003
(Scott, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed”, pg 74-75, ldg)
My own book, The Limits of Safety… organizational cover-ups
Health Care Frontline
Obama political capital will not pass health care-opposing crowd out
The Advertiser 9-17-09
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(Us health reform vital for Obama, LN)jap

In the United States, President Barack … space and crowd out more reasoned voices.
4. Turn-Addressing the first use of nuclear weapons is popular

Alexei Arbatov, Chairman of Duma Defense Committee, November 2008
(Alexei Arbatov, Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee of the State Duma in the Federal Assembly of the
Russian Federation, November 2008 “Non-First Use As a Way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons,” International
Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf)jap
Reducing the role of nuclear … first use of nuclear weapons.
5. Obama needs a win to be able to pass health care-plan is the win*

Washington Times 9-8-09
(Kara Rowland, Obama faces critical test; He needs victory as poll ratings on decline, LN)jap
With health care, financial … Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said
6. Other issues take Obama’s political capital away from Health care-Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan
Washington Post 8-30-09
(David S Broder, A Scary Season for Obama, LN)jap
He launched a series of ambitious … broad support at home, is increasingly unpopular.
Security K Frontline
There are a number of possible …be wished away. (R. Walker 1997: 76)
2. Ethical policymaking must be grounded in consequences

Jeffrey C. Isaac, Indiana University James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and Center for the Study of
Democracy and Public Life director, Spring 2002, “Ends, Means, and Politics,” Dissent Magazine
Power is not a dirty …undermines political effectiveness.
3. Turn-
Security studies causes conflict—it produces a false understanding of ‘societal’ identity that causes conflicts
Williams 2003
Michael C. University of Wales-Aberystwyth, "Words, Images, Enemies: Securitization and International Politics
International Studies Quarterly (2003) 47, 519) ge
The concept of societal security …, that make conflicts more likely (74–78).
5. Critical Theory Lacks Concrete Alternatives

Mearsheimer 95**
(John, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago, International Security, “The False Promise of International
Institutions,” Winter 94/95p36) gek
Critical theory is well-suited for challenging … on what that movement might achieve." (13 3)
Consult CP Frontline
2. Japan says no-Fears North Korea

Michael J. Green, senior fellow for Asian security at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Katsuhisa Furukawa,
research associate for Asian security at the Council on Foreign Relations. 2000
(http://www.cfr.org/publication/3701/new_ambitions_old_obstacles.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication
%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Djournal_article%26page%3D49 New Ambitions, Old Obstacles: Japan and Its Search
For an Arms Control Strategy)jap
The orthodox … American nuclear umbrella."26
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3. The US would reassure Japan

Landler and Fackler, staff writers The New York Times, February 09
(Mark and Martin, staff writers The New York Times, “Clinton Offers Words of Reassurance” lexis) mee
In words and … the Obama White House.
Japan won’t proliferate
A. No public support
Newsweek 6/22
(Takashi Yakota, The N Word: Why Japan won't go nuclear, http://www.newsweek.com/id/201859)jap
Yet this is all … possessing such a deterrent.
B. Undermines the alliance

Newsweek 6/22
(Takashi Yakota, The N Word: Why Japan won't go nuclear, http://www.newsweek.com/id/201859)jap
Japan, moreover, now … would get the blame.
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Texas-Dallas Dwyer/Roark (CTBT) [Rohan]
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Vermont Edelman/Ritchie (Critical-Testing) [Rohan]
OBSERVATION ONE: FINALLY, A NUCLEAR WEAPONS TOPIC!

This resolution hails the debate community to test it. We are presented with the question of whether or not the federal
government should make change… a call to master the simulation … to prove why our visions of alternate futures are
superior. We are called to roleplay as the federal government to test the efficacy of different courses of action … to be
actors – to put our humanness aside… to test the merit of competing ideas.
Ronell2005 (Avital Ronell [Prof of German, comparative lit, and English @ NYU]; The Test Drive. 190-193)
To the extent that… …into itself from distance or future.
In order to prove our hypotheses about the resolution, we are called to dive into a structure of incessant research… to
find the “what is” of the Resolution. The Resolution becomes a testing site for our competing claims of value and truth.
We must be cautious, however, because elevating the site of testing to a position of truth-confirming can replace the
value of human life with the value of testing.
Whether you mean to prove… … will to scientific knowledge.'
If we follow the Resolutional call to test, we position our techniques of debating in relation to our literature base in ways
that infuse politics with illusory values to confirm reality through violence. Our obsession with death to prove our claims
in debate is the very thing that holds the structure of testing together.
Ronell2005 (Avital Ronell [Prof of German, comparative lit, and English @ NYU]; The Test Drive.8-10)
The test, which belongs… … the field gets heavily technologized.
This obsession with the immanence of destruction is at the heart of the test drive. This impulse is perhaps most
evident in the laboratories of the U.S. nuclear complex. The key to post-Cold War national security is understood to be
caring for an aging arsenal through constant testing to fight the effects of old age. Here, the personification of the
bomb is so complete that the body of the bomb has replaced the human body. This obsession with testing to preserve
a fragile arsenal ensures that the value of military technology will take precedence over human life.
Masco2004 (Joseph Masco [Dept of Anthropology; Univ of Chicago], “Nuclear technoaesthetics: Sensory politics from
Trinity to the virtual bomb in Los Alamos,” American Ethnologist, 31, 349-373)
In Los Alamos, the post–Cold War period… .. protecting the human body.
Therefore, we affirm the resolution as a test site whose (de)merits itself must be interrogated before we evaluate the
individual claims that the resolution asks us to test.
OBSERVATION TWO: TOPICAL TESTING

Our affirmation recognizes the test site itself as the place where we are called to determine all ethical claims. Only
through this recognition can we even begin to pose the question of not engaging the test drive. Our affirmation
considers the structure of debate as a site of experimentation, and recognizes our obsession with testing is also an
obsession with violence. Our affirmation seeks to read the links between violence and testing through the topology of
the test site itself.
The normatively secured test… … disruption be at all possible?
UNTIL WE QUESTION OUR INCESSANT DRIVE TO TEST (i.e., our need to prove the reality and truth of the world),
we will continue TO NEGATE LIFE as it is AND TO STRENGTHEN and SPREAD the prevailing culture of
RESSENTIMENT and NIHILISM. Instead we must recognize that our truths and values ARE illusions and embrace
them as such. The only question we should be asking ourselves--as debaters, people, beings-in-and-of-the-world--is
how can we AFFIRM LIFE in any and every instance. In this sense, AFFIRMATION is the pre-requisite to life itself.
Deleuze2006 (Gilles Deleuze, Nietzsche & Philosophy, pp. 86-87)
If one can see through… … is an indication of nihilism.
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Vermont Martel/Robertson (Critical-Testing) [Rohan]
observation 1 - Point and shoot, I know just what you mean...

Nuclear discourse is defined by two regimes of discourse - the discourse of the nation-state and that of the non-nation
state - both construct nuclear war as comparable only to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, subordinating the
constant nuclear war waged against fourth world peoples, revealing a form of capitalist domination focused on
destruction of the periphery.
Masahide Kato (professor of political science @university of hawaii) "Nuclear Globalism: Transversing Rockets,
Satellites and Nuclear War via the Strategic Gaze," Alternatives vol. 18; 1993 p. 339
Nuclear war has been… … a historical fact.
observation 2 - in a world that's full of shit and gasoline...

And, the rhetoric of nuclear globalism employs the techno-strategic gaze, rendering obsolete the notion of perspective,
creating an illusion of homogeneity. the absolutization of the strategic gaze makes possible capitalist domination over
the periphery
Satellites and Nuclear War via the Strategic Gaze," Alternatives vol. 18; 1993 p. 341
Historical contestations over… … illusion of homogeneity.
we'll isolate a few impacts -

Specifically, capitalism of late has become focused not upon incorporation of those in the periphery, but a complete
domination of it. Nuclear war has been waged since 1945 - the primary targets being the inhabitants of the periphery.
Satellites and Nuclear War via the Strategic Gaze," Alternatives vol. 18; 1993 p. 347-8
The vigorous invasion… … and Indigenous Nations.
Nuclear globalism constructs a nuclear fantasy bringing about the extinction of all life forms on earth, delegitimizing the
continuing oppression of the fourth world, blinding us to the nuclear violence being waged continually.
Nuclear criticism finds… …manifested in nuclear criticism.
These instances of nuclear war are, quite simply, genocidal acts of human sacrifice, with a disparate effect on the
indigenous peoples they target.
Jessica Barkas Threet, Testing the Bomb: Disparate Impacts on Indigenous Peoples in the American West, the
Marshall Islands, and in Kazakhstan 13 U. Balt. J. Envtl. L. 29 (2005).
Neither the Western Native Americans… … some as genocide.
Thus, the plan: The United States Federal Government should ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
observation 3 - solvency
Ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is an important step towards healing the injuries to the peoples and
cultures who we have tested on.
Jessica Barkas Threet, Testing the Bomb: Disparate Impacts on Indigenous Peoples in the American West, the
Marshall Islands, and in Kazakhstan 13 U. Balt. J. Envtl. L. 29 (2005)
The burden of assuring… … by nuclear weapons testing.
reform, vision, and strategy, are key to overcoming systemic forms of oppression. Our project requires critical reforms
Albert 99 (Michael, longtime activist, speaker, and writer, is co-editor of ZNet, and co-editor and co-founder of Z
Magazine.) Talking about a RevolutionSouth End Press, July, p. 1-9)
What achievements of the… … organizing are about.
Our ethic is a rejection of globalist technosubjectivity, and discursive movements which destroy third world
movements.
The dialectic… … "real" of the latter.
The sole focus on methodology, epistemology and ontology destroy the effectiveness of theory – only by refocusing
our discussions on practical policy matters can allow theory to resonate outside of the debate.
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Lepgold and Nincic 2001 [Joseph, associate professor of Government at Georgetown and Miroslav professor of
political science at UC-Davis, Beyond the Ivory Tower: International Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy
Relevance pg. 6-7]
This broad purpose covers… …outside the Ivory Tower.
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**DE-ALERT**
Arizona State Brasch/Brimhall (Dealert) [Logan]
Team: Aff v.
Tournament, Round # : Gonzaga, all prelims
vs:
Judge(s):
Plan text: The United States federal government should de-alert its nuclear weapons arsenal.
1ac cites:
1AC-Inherency
Contention One: Fingers on the Trigger
The US has thousands on nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert.
Wayman 2009 (Rick, Director of Programs at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Thousands of Nuclear Weapons Still
on Hair-Trigger Alert, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation,
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2007/11/06_wayman_hair_trigger.php)
Several thousand nuclear weapons are currently AND all members of the human race.
Russia and China have weapons on High Alert Status

Steinbruner 2k9 [Professor John STEINBRUNER, Director, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland,
University of Maryland; Chairman of the Board, Arms Control Association, “Reframing De-Alert” June 2009,
http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Steinbruner.pdf]
Institutionalized policy in the United States AND preemptive attack could not be completely decisive
Plan Text
Resolved: The United States federal government should de-alert its nuclear weapons arsenal.
1AC-Miscalculations-Russia
Observation 2: Miscalculations
Scenario 1: Russia
Maintaining this policy ensures Russia and the United States are constantly on the brink of nuclear war. The slightly
miscalculation can end the world in minutes
Blair 2K8 [Bruce, President of the World Security Institute and former Minuteman launch officer, February 27,
“Increasing Warning and Decision Time (‘De-Alerting’)” http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp-
content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_Blair.pdf]
A high degree of vigilance suffuses AND less than one hour.
And, De-Alert is key to preventing accidental nuclear war with Russia

NAPF 9 (Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, “US Leadership for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World An Appeal to President
Obama,”http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/action/urgent-actions/appeal_to_next_pres/moredetail.php. March
11,Accessed July 29, 2009)
About one third of the deployed AND aggressive and dangerous for all humanity.
Accidental launch/miscalculations leads to full-scale nuclear war.
Rosenberg 06 [staff writer“Experts Warn of Accidental Atomic War” http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?
file=/c/a/2006/10/06/MNGF9LJSMM1.DTL]
A Pentagon project to modify its AND nuclear strike on the United States.
There are Three Scenarios with Russia that leads to Nuclear War.
Giacomo 03 [Writer for Common Dreams. “Experts Fear US-Russia nuclear miscalculation”
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0522-03.htm]
Nunn said the post-Cold AND based on incorrect or incomplete information.
US De-alert of nuclear weapons is a model for Russian de-alert

Krieger and Ong 2002 (David, a founder and president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Carah Policy Analyst
at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, April, De-Alert, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation,
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/04/00_krieger_de-alert.htm)
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The US and Russia have come AND by the nuclear weapons states unilaterally."
1AC-Miscalcuations-China
Scenario 2: China
Increased Nuclear Weapons in China increase the risk of an accidental launch,
NTI 2003 (Nuclear Threats Initative, China's Nuclear Weapon Development, Modernization and Testing,
http://www.nti.org/db/China/wnwmdat.htm)
Through these modernization efforts, China AND and the remaining warheads on SLBMs.
Chinese Nuclear Secrecy risks nuclear miscalculation

Burns 2009 (Robert, Associated Press National Security Writer, January 14, Bush Official Urges China to Lift Nuclear
Secrecy, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/WireStory?id=6648475&page=1)
"The difficulty I see is AND has a much larger nuclear force.
An Accidental Nuclear launch will lead to a nuclear apocalypse by Russia, the US and China
Chomsky 2006 (Noam, Professor of American linguistics at MIT, philosopher, cognitive scientist, political activist,
author, and lecturer, Failed states: the abuse of power and the assault on democracy, page 14-15)
The probability of “apocalypse soonAND nuclear proliferators are even more acute.”
China wont De-Alert because of the United States alert Status. If the US de-alerts china will follow.
Ramdas 2000 (Admiral L. Former Chief of the Indian Navy, Nuclear Disarmament and South Asia,
http://www.ieer.org/latest/ramdas.html)
Finally, what can we do AND we have to keep at it.
De-alerting our forces prevent nuclear accidents or theft.

Blair 2k7 [Bruce G. Blair January/February 2007. Blair, a nuclear missile launch officer in the early 1970s, is president
of the World Security Institute in Washington,D.C. “Primed and Ready”. The Bulletin of Aromic Scientists. Volume 63,
Number 1. http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/wl66350172162k87/fulltext.pdf
Why take these real risks for AND of nuclear security on both sides.
If US nuclear weapons were de-alerted all threats weather cyber or international would be solved
Blair and Samson 2008 (Bruce, President, World Security Institute, Victoria, Senior Analyst, Center for Defense
Information, Taking Nuclear Forces off Day to Day Alert, http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-nuclear-forces-day-day-
alert)
Because of this legacy posture of AND missile defenses in Europe would decline.
1AC-Accidents-Cyber Terror
Contention Three: McVeigh in the Basement
Weapons on Hair Trigger Alert Status make it easier for terrorist to provoke a launch.
Fritz 2009 (Jason, International Commission on nuclear Non-proliferation and disarmament. July 24, Hacking Nuclear
Command and Control http://128.100.171.10/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=2435)
In order to see how cyber AND takes to disseminate plans to nuclear forces
may expand the use of computers AND fail-deadly and autonomous systems.
Cyber terrorists can use a computer to hack into they system and cause the launch of a nuclear missile.
Fritz 2009 (Jason, International Commission on nuclear Non-proliferation and disarmament. July 24, Hacking Nuclear
Command and Control http://128.100.171.10/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=2435)
Cyber terrorists could cause incorrect information AND be readily found on the internet.
If a cyber terrorist obtained access to a nuke its destructive power would be magnified by their ability to enter
misinformation shutting down key infrastructures.
Fritz 2009 (Jason, Head of the International Commission on nuclear Non-proliferation and disarmament. July 24,
Hacking Nuclear Command and Control http://128.100.171.10/modules.php?
op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=2435)
This research has shown that nuclear AND misinformation or shutting down key infrastructure.
A Cyber Terror attack would be Apocalyptic
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Chomsky 2006 (Noam, Professor of American linguistics at MIT, philosopher, cognitive scientist, political activist,
author, and lecturer, Failed states: the abuse of power and the assault on democracy, page 15-16)
Blair warns that “this perpetual AND an accident that could be apocalyptic.
De-alert solves risk from cyber-terrorism

Blair and Samson. 2008. “Taking Nuclear Forces Off Day-to-Day Alert.” Bruce Blair, President, World Security
Institute, and Victoria Samson, Senior Analyst, Center for Defense Information. http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-
nuclear-forces-day-day-alert
The hair-trigger configuration of AND Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
1AC-Solvency
Removing warheads from delivery vehicles is feasible and takes only days
Arjun Makhijani, October 1998. De-Alerting: A First Step, http://www.ieer.org/latest/de-alert.html. President of the
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research.
The surest way of preventing accidental AND depending on the specific circumstances).5
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California Gannon/Weiner (Dealert-RLOAD) [Logan]
New Cal De-Alert Adv
World War one was not an intentional war- all sides mobilized for war in the belief that if they were not the first army
ready on the battlefield that they were going to be the losing side- the problem with the hair-trigger alert during the
WWI was that when one side began the mobilization race it required the other side to reciprocate – increasing the risk
of accidental conflict when mobilization began and could not be halted
Kahn 69 “On Thermonuclear War” p 358-375
As Taylor says, World War … be really like that
Nuclear decision-makers are still dominated by conventional war-planning – possibility of accidental war ensures
escalation because nuclear consequences are not realized
Cullberg-Weston 1993 “Why We Canot rely on deciion makers in Times of Crisis” published in “Inadvertent Nuclear
War: The Implications of the Changing Global Order” p 117-132
Many researchers (Frank, 1986…acting in a nuclear world
Inherent narcissism in decision-makers makes accidental conflict dangerous – possibility of escalation and retaliatory
response increases
Cullberg-Weston Same Cite p 117-132
Basic psychological needs in leaders…occur as Bradley (1988) reports
Group decision-making renders all rationality arguments null- the only way to guarantee rational calculations is to
increase the amount of time leaders have to make a launch decision
Cullberg-Weston Same Cite p 117-132
It is generally recognized…the new nuclear powers
2AC AT: Agamben K/Framework
The “secret” workings of nuclear decisions creates an amoral space for “experts” to set policy- democratic involvement
of the public is necessary to challenge the legitimizing discourse of nuclear weapons
Taylor 7 “The means to Match Their Hatred: Nuclear Weapons, Rhetorical Democracy, and Presidential Discourse”
Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol 37 Iss 4 pg 667-692
First there is general…political fetish of weaponry
Overturning specific weapons policy invigorates citizen movements for disarm

Mian 9 “Beyond the Security Debate: The Moral and Legal Dimensions of Abolition in Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A
Debate”
Framing abolition in moral…to formally democratic societies
High alert land based ICBMs serve no deterrence purpose for the US arsenal- only a risk they increase the chance of
miscalculated launch
Daalder 8 “The Logci of Zero” Foreign Affairs Vol 87 No 6
The united states also…no strategic sense today
Political strategies that address state netweorks are needed to remedy systemic violence and inequalities
Shaw 1 “The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations”
While booth explicitly rejects…fashion a new agenda
Turn- Humanitarianism is the restriction on state violence not the cause- no internal link to their bare life impact
Heins 2005 German Law Journal Vol 6 No 5 “Giorgio Agamben and the Current state of Affairs”
His sweeping critique also…for international humanitarian law
Extending western global norms through peaceful state interaction is vital to integrate states into a global civil
community. The impact is nuclear war and genocide
Shaw 2001 Review of International Studies, 27, 3, October
The new politics of…and politics, are intertwined
AT: Fear K
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Fear is the driving factor behind every single effort to avoid nuclear war
Carrea 1990 Beyond 1995 ed. Pilat and Pendley
For millennia, humanity has…obscured the real problem.
Arms control strategies make nuclear fear productive and avoid cooption- key to preventing nuclear war and achieving
disarmament
Wittner 4 “The power of Protest”, online
Decades of struggle against the…before, it can do it again
Fear mobilizes people and gives meaning to life – Flight 93 proves

Greenspan 3 “An excerpt from healing through the Dark Emotions: The Wisdom of Grief, Fear and Despair by Miriam
Greenspan”
Fear is a very powerful…live together without fear
Fear of death prevents extinction- it creates a consciousness which preserves peace

Futterman 94 “Obscenity and peace: Meditations on the Bomb”
But the inhibitory effect…our future technological breakthroughs
Fear over extinction is a rational fear that incites action- prevents inevitable catastrophe and solves paralysis
Wink 1 “Apocalypse Now?” Christian Century
Positive apocalyptic by contrast…none of our business
Good fear of death is distinct from irrational fear – it allows us to reduce danger, live ethically, and prepare for a
peaceful death on our terms
Gyatso “Fear of Death” THarpa Publications 2003
Generally, our fear of…attain a deathless body
Discussions of Real fears solve their anxiety arg

Greenspan 3 “An excerpt from healing through the Dark Emotions: The Wisdom of Grief, Fear and Despair by Miriam
Greenspan”
While it would be…become epidemic in our time
Cal Gannon Weiner Aff Gonzaga
The United States federal government should move land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles to non-deployed
status.
ADVANTAGE 1 – UNITED STATES
SCENARIO 1 – ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH
Current US nuclear weapons are placed on high alert status – this increases the risk of glitches or tech malfunctions
causing accidental launch – guarantees retaliation and escalating war
Blair, President of the World Security Institute, ‘9 (Bruce, February, “Toward True Security”
www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/truesecurity.html)
While Russia retains the ability to ...the missing warheads for 36 hours.
Flawed early warning system makes accidental launch more likely – de-alerting key
Pikaev, Assistant State Duma Deputy, ‘1 (A.G. ARBATOV- Ph.D., Head of RAS IMEMO PMFC, State Duma Deputy,
Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, V.S. BELOUS- Ph.D., Leading Research Associate of the
Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of
the Military Sciences Academy, Major General (Ret.), A.A. PIKAEV- Candidate of Political Sciences, Head of the RAS
IMEMO PMFC Non-Proliferation and Arms Reduction Center, Assistant State Duma Deputy, V.G. BARANOVSKY-
Ph.D., Deputy Director, RAS IMEMO, “De-alerting Russian and US nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear
dangers” Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences,
http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html)
It seems that the launch-...preventive surprise strike by the adversary.
De-alerting eliminates the possibility of accidental launch by the United States
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Steinbruner, Director at CISS, ‘9 (John, Director at the Center for International and Security Studies and Chairman at
the Arms Control Association, June 21-23, “Reframing De-alert” Re-framing De-Alert: Decreasing the Operational
Readiness of Nuclear Weapons Systems in the U.S.-Russia Context, http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Steinbruner.pdf)
Most individuals not embedded in the ...standards of protection against unauthorized access.
Accidental launch causes World War 3

Pikaev, ‘1 (A.G. ARBATOV- Ph.D., Head of RAS IMEMO PMFC, State Duma Deputy, Deputy Chairman of the State
Duma Defense Committee, V.S. BELOUS- Ph.D., Leading Research Associate of the Institute of International
Economy and Foreign Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of the Military Sciences
Academy, Major General (Ret.), A.A. PIKAEV- Candidate of Political Sciences, Head of the RAS IMEMO PMFC Non-
Proliferation and Arms Reduction Center, Assistant State Duma Deputy, V.G. BARANOVSKY- Ph.D., Deputy Director,
RAS IMEMO, “De-alerting Russian and US nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers” Institute of
International Economy and Foreign Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences,
http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html)
The capability of delivering a sudden ...an exchange of massive nuclear strikes.
SCENARIO 2 – MISCALCULATED LAUNCH
Top US officials have less than 30 seconds to decide whether the White House should be informed of a potential
attack – this increases the risk of miscalculation where we retaliate against a perceived threat that does not actually
exist
Blair, ‘4 (Bruce, “Aren’t Hair-Trigger Nuclear Missiles a Target for Terrorists?”
http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=ask_this.view&askthisid=007)
This anachronistic nuclear thinking has perpetuated ...real threat of unintentional Russian attack.
Limited human cognition makes it psychologically impossible for leaders to act rationally – the rigged game of policy-
making ensures offensive action by the White House
Blair, ‘4 (Bruce-Professor of Security Studies at Yale University, February 16, “Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark”
Center for Defense Information, http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch%E2%80%90on%E2%80%90warning.cfm)
Given the awesome responsibility and authority ...in order to alleviate this danger.
High alert land-based ICBMs serve no deterrence purpose for the US arsenal – only a risk they increase the chance of
miscalculated launch
Daalder, Senior Fellow at Brookings, ‘8 (Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal-President of the Atlantic Council,
January/February, “The Logic Of Zero” Foreign Affairs, Vol 87 No 6)
The United States also needs to ...It makes no strategic sense today.
US ICBMs are first strike only – our current posture guarantees a thousand warheads launched at Russia in the event
of a perceived attack
Nyland, US Arms Control and Disarm Agency, ‘1 (Frederic, “Russian-American Nuclear Stability Issues: Opportunities
and Risks in the Twenty-First Century” published in ‘Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-First Century’
by Stephen Cimbala, p 79-98)
With regard to U.S...effect in an operational war plan.
The resulting miscalculated launch causes US-Russia war and extinction

Helfand, President of Physicians for Social Responsibility, ‘9 (Ira Helfand and John Pastore-Former President of
Physicians for Social Responsibility, “Take All Nukes Off Ready Alert Status” lexis)
PRESIDENT OBAMA and Russian President Medvedev ...our own, would become extinct.
SCENARIO 3 – UNAUTHORIZED LAUNCH
High alert weapons cause highest risk of terrorism

Blair, ‘3 (Bruce- President of the World Security Institute and Professor of Security Studies at Yale University, April 29,
“Hair-Trigger Missiles Risk Catastrophic Terrorism” Center for Defense Information, http://www.cdi.org/blair/hair-
trigger-dangers.cfm)
It behooves the former enemies to ...alert, before it's too late.
High alert makes the US vulnerable to tech espionage – prevents survivability and effective response to attack
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Blair, ‘8 (Bruce-Professor of Security Studies at Yale University, February 26-27, “Increasing Warning and Decision
Time (‘De-alerting’)” Achieving the Vision of a World Free of Nuclear Weapons International Conference on Nuclear
Disarmament, http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_Blair.pdf)
There are a host of reasons .... (China is especially active.)
Terrorist attack with a stolen weapon kills millions and the economy
Bunn, Research Associate at Harvard, ‘3 (Mathew-Senior Research Associate in the Project on Managing the Atom at
Harvard’s JFK School of Government, “Controlling Nuclear Warheads and Materials: A Report Card and Action Plan”
http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/overview/report.asp)
In short, once terrorists get ..., we cannot afford to wait.
ADVANTAGE 2 - RUSSIA
Likelihood of Russia misperceiving a US nuclear launch guarantees escalation – only scenario for Russia to attack the
United States is a miscalculation about US actions
Blair, ‘9 (Bruce-President of the World Security Institute, February, “Toward True Security”
The greatest nuclear dangers to the ...to an accidental or unauthorized attack.
Russia’s alert posture increases the risk of unintentional war – accidental launch, miscalculation, and unauthorized
launch are the highest risks
Paul, Professor of IR at McGill University, ‘5 (T.V, “The Risk of Nuclear War Does Not Belong to History” published in
‘The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates’ by Raimo Vayryen, p 113-135)
Accidental wars The probability of accidental ...this time of a larger magnitude.
Unilaterally de-alerting causes Russian reciprocation – alleviates fears about first strike
Blair, ‘7 (Bruce, “Reykjavik Revisited Steps Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons, De-Alerting Strategic Forces”
http://www.hoover.org/publications/books/online/15766737.html)
De-alerting is feasible. ...and would thus not be recommended.
A small concession up front is the only way to ensure the success of future bilateral negotiations – plan reduces the
risk of Russian miscalculation and accidental launch
Civiak, Science Policy Research at CRS, ‘9 (Robert, Spring, “Towards a New US Nuclear Posture” Disarmament
Diplomacy, No 90, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd90/90us01.htm#en01)
As with reducing the number of ...other and from its delivery systems.
US de-alert reduces Russia’s incentive to keep its weapons on accident-prone posture – subs allows us to maintain
deterrence without posing a threat of accidental or unauthorized launch
Blair, ‘9 (Bruce-President of the World Security Institute, February, “Toward True Security”
2. The United States should ...United States would facilitate such measures.
US-Russia reciprocal de-alert prevents accidental nuclear war

Blair, ‘8 (Bruce, Victoria Samson-Senior Analyst at the Center for Defense Information, “Taking Nuclear Forces Off
Day-to-Day Alert” Peace Action Maine, http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-nuclear-forces-day-day-alert)
This launch-ready posture—...as well as other nations’ systems.
Russian accidental launch has highest magnitude – worse conflict than intentional war
Blair, ‘1 (Bruce, June, “Toward True Security A US Nuclear Posture for the Next Decade” Center for Defense
Information, http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/010600-posture.pdf)
While Russia retains the ability to ...large portion of Russia’s missile force.
ADVANTAGE 3 – CRISIS ESCALATION
Land-based ICBMs cause crisis instability – highest risk of accidental launch and lack of survivability ensures high alert
posture used to escalate a conflict
Brooks, Vice President of the Center for Naval Analysis, ‘1 (Linton-Commanding Officer of USS Whale and START I
Negotiator, Spring, “Arms Control and the Future Sub Force”
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_11/future_subforce.html)
Predictability is a familiar term; ..., they are highly effective weapons.
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Crisis instability most likely scenario for disrupting international peace – miscalculation makes it more likely
Shiels, Professor of Government at Mercy College, ’93 (Frederick, “Preventing the Ultimate Disaster: Misperception at
the Top” published in ‘Inadvertent Nuclear War: The Implications of the Changing Global Order’ by Hakan Wiberg, Ib
Damgaard Petersen, and Paul Smoker, p 133-148)
...they would not necessarily be used.
Nuclear taboo in the status quo prevents a nation from launching first but doesn’t stop them from retaliating –
accidents are the only scenario in which the taboo is broken
Paul, Professor of International Relations at McGill University, ‘5 (T.V, “The Risk of Nuclear War Does Not Belong to
History” published in ‘The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates’ by Raimo Vayryen, p 113-135)
Risk of nuclear war during the ...as well as by terrorist groups.
Assume the worst-case scenario of accidental launch when comparing impacts – consequence is too catastrophic
Shiels, Professor of Government at Mercy College, ’93 (Frederick, “Preventing the Ultimate Disaster: Misperception at
Damgaard Petersen, and Paul Smoker, p 133-148)
The existence of an elaborate machinery ...to destroy our world within minutes.
2AC Obama Good Disadvantage
Bipartisan support for de-alerting our nuclear weapons

Blair et al, President World Security Institute, ‘8 (Bruce, Victoria Samson-Senior Analyst at the Center for Defense
Information, “Taking Nuclear Forces Off Day-to-Day Alert” Peace Action Maine, http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-
nuclear-forces-day-day-alert)
There is a groundswell of support ...risks of accidental or unauthorized attacks.”
De-alert has congressional support

Blair et al, President of the World Security Institute, ’97 (Bruce Blair, Professor of Security Studies at Yale University,
Harold Feiveson, Professor of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, and Frank von Hippel, Assistant
Director for National Security, November “Taking Nuclear Weapons Off Hair-Trigger Alert” Scientific American)
The chance of an accidental launch ...is seriously studying such an alteration.
Their evidence assumes Russia won’t reciprocate

Von Hippel, Prof Public and International Affairs at Princeton, ’98 (Frank, Chairman of the research arm of the
Federation of American Scientists, October 29-November 1, “De-alerting Nuclear Missiles” The Sixth ISODARCO
Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, http://www.nautilus.org/archives/library/security/papers/von_hippelISODARCO.PDF)
The Congress, whose Republican leadership ...and Soviet Armies and surface Navies.
Funding ICBM’s isn’t popular- deterioration proves

Thayer and Skypek- prof. at U of Minnesota- ‘9
Bradley A. Thayer (Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, Duluth) &Thomas M.
Skypek (defense analyst), Spring 2009, Journal of International Security Affairs, Number 16, The Perilous Future of
U.S. Strategic Forces, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2009/16/thayer&skypek.php
It is painfully clear that Washington’s ...American power in the years ahead.
No perception of ICBM changes- Cold War relics

John Clay- Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems- April 22, 2009, John Clay Addresses ICBM Conference,
http://www.northropgrumman.com/presentations/2009/042209-john-clay-future-of-the-us-icbm.html
I want to thank the conference ...element of this suddenly unfashionable subject.
Plan popular- Bush reductions and WSJ op-eds prove

Blair and Samson- World Security Institute and Center for Defense Info- ‘8
Bruce Blair and Victoria Samson, Taking Nuclear Forces Off Day-to-Day Alert, http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-
nuclear-forces-day-day-alert, (2008 – last cite)
De-alerting U.S...risks of accidental or unauthorized attacks.”
De-alert saves money and fosters arms control- builds political capital
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James Kitfield, National Journal, Nov. 18, 2008, Obama Will Have Opening on Arms Initiatives, Expert Says, Global
Security Newswire, http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20081118_9029.php
Cirincione: Yes. I think ...would see the opposite of blowback.
Congressmen don’t have the expertise or time to care about the plan
Kristensen and Woolf- The Stanley Foundation- ‘7
November 13, Policy Dialogue Brief, US Nuclear Weapons Policy and Arms Control, Presenters: Hans Kristensen
(Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists) and Amy Woolf (Specialist in National
Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, Congressional Research Service),
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/US_NukePDB508.pdf
Congressional interest in nuclear weapons is...are motivated by outside pressure groups.
2AC RLOAD Counterplan
Unilateral de-alert solves Russian reciprocation and is a stepping stone for further nuclear cooperation – negotiations
now get bogged down
Blair et al, President of the Center for Defense Information, ‘1 (Bruce, June, “Toward True Security A US Nuclear
Posture for the Next Decade” Center for Defense Information, http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/010600-posture.pdf)
The United States should structure its ...to make it difficult to reverse.
US has to de-alert unilaterally – solves US credibility and causes Russian reciprocation

Schram ‘3 (Martin-, Avoiding Armageddon: our future, our choice, P. 108-109)
A Proposal for Unilateral U....suggestion for unilateral de-alerting.
2AC Deterrence DA
Cost of maintaining ICBMs means withdraw is inevitable

Richardson, Nonproliferation Division at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, ‘9 (Jeff, September/October, “Shifting from
a nuclear triad to a nuclear dyad” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/f36h7r5624w18035/fulltext.pdf)
There are fewer compelling reasons to ...but dwindling risk-mitigation argument.
Rapid nuclear response not needed for deterrence

Buchan et al, RAND Corporation, ‘3 (Glenn, “Future Roles of US Nuclear Forces: Implications for US Strategy” Rand
Project Air Force, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1231.pdf)
The effect of a delay in ...on a threat of nuclear retaliation.
Plan doesn’t sacrifice our nuclear deterrent – we need to lead by example

Richardson, Nonproliferation Division at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, ‘9 (Jeff, September/October, “Shifting from
a nuclear triad to a nuclear dyad” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/f36h7r5624w18035/fulltext.pdf)
In response to those who suggest ...their viewpoint, sufficient nuclear deterrence.
The threat of potential re-alerting deters nations from proliferating

Mazarr, Prof National Security at US National War College, ’95 (Michael, Autumn, “Virtual Nuclear Arsenals” Survival,
Vol 37 Issue 3, p 7, Proquest)
In the early phases of a ...arsenals could continue to do so.
Maintaining subs solves deterrence

Von Hippel, Prof Public and International Affairs at Princeton, ’98 (Frank, Chairman of the research arm of the
Federation of American Scientists, October 29-November 1, “De-alerting Nuclear Missiles” The Sixth ISODARCO
Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, http://www.nautilus.org/archives/library/security/papers/von_hippelISODARCO.PDF)
The answer to this question from ...should provide more than ample deterrence.
Conventional weapons solve deterrence

Ferguson et al, Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University, ‘9 (William-Director of the Nuclear Policy
Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Brent Perry-Professor at Stanford University and Former Secretary of
Defense, Charles Scowcroft-Former National Security Advisor and President’s Advisory Committee on Arms Control,
April, “US Nuclear Weapons Policy” Council on Foreign Relations Task Force Report,
http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Nuclear_Weapons_TFR62.pdf)
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During much of the Cold War...States from intervening on their territories.
US unilateral cuts boost public support for deterrence – European arsenals solve
Kamp, Head of the International Planning Staff at the Konrad Adenauer Stifung in Germany,’3 (Karl-Heinz, “NATO’s
Nuclear Future: A Rationale for NATO’s Deterrence Capabilities,” in NATO and European Security: Alliance Politics
from the End of the Cold War to the Age of Terrorism, eds. Moens, Cohen, and Sens)
Do NATO's European allies still regard ...cut its nonstrategic forces as well. 147-148
And restoring public support is critical to deterrence credibility

Kamp, Head of the International Planning Staff at the Konrad Adenauer Stifung in Germany,’3 (Karl-Heinz, “NATO’s
Nuclear Future: A Rationale for NATO’s Deterrence Capabilities,” in NATO and European Security: Alliance Politics
from the End of the Cold War to the Age of Terrorism, eds. Moens, Cohen, and Sens)
The concept of nuclear deterrence, ...the idea of total nuclear disarmament.
2AC Topicality Role/Mission
Our readiness posture is one of the roles of our nuclear weapons

Kimball Executive Director Strategic Deterrence Symposium US Strat Com ‘9
(Daryl G., July 29, ACA Director Addresses STRATCOM Deterrence Symposium, “What Are Nuclear Weapons For?
Reassessing and Reducing the Role of Nuclear Weapons in 21st Century U.S. Security Policy”, http://www.arms
control.org/print/3779)
Unfortunately, even after two post...suspected chemical or biological weapons threats.
Separating warheads reduces the role and saliency of our nuclear weapons
Blair, President of the World Security Institute, ‘8 (Bruce-Professor of Security Studies at Yale University, February 26-
27, “Increasing Warning and Decision Time (‘De-alerting’)” Achieving the Vision of a World Free of Nuclear Weapons
International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament, http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp-
content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_Blair.pdf)
In phase three, which would ...a mistaken launch on false warning.
De-alerting and warhead separation decreases missions

Oelrich Security Studies Georgetown ‘8 (Ivan-, VP Strategic Security Programs Federation of American Scientists,
April, American Physical Society Forum on Physics & Society “What Are Nuclear Weapons For?”,
http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200804/ oelrich.cfm)
The nuclear “posture” we ...certainly only in the double digits.
Placing weapons in the operational reserve means they are no longer part of the arsenal
NRDC ‘7 (Natural Resources Defense Council, Jan./Feb., Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “U.S. nuclear forces”, Vol.
63 #1 http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/91n36687821608un/fulltext.pdf)
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Emory Nikolic/Swenson (Dealert) [Logan]
Emory NS
GSU Aff Disclosure
Dealert 1AC
Contention One - War
U.S. forces are on high alert – it only takes a couple of minutes to launch
Blair 8 (Bruce, president of the World Security Institute, “Increasing Warning and Decision Time (‘De-Alerting’)”
International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament, Oslo Feb. 26 – 27, http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp-
content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_ Blair.pdf)
Both the Kremlin and the White House … would be run in less than one hour.
Accidental conflict is inevitable—
Deteriorating early warning systems guarantee it –

UPI 8 (Andrei Kislyakov, political commentator for RIA Novosti, “Outside view: Nuke force plans,” July 14, Lexis)
This entails three things: … is constantly being postponed.
Hair trigger postures are staking humanity’s survival – cyberterrorists will spoof early warning systems or gain control
of nuclear weapons either through theft or command and control – unauthorized launch becomes a major possibility –
current threat reduction programs will fail
Blair 8 (James, president of the Center for Defense Information and World Security Institute, former senior fellow in
foreign policy for the Brookings Insittution and former Minuteman officer, baller, “De-alerting Strategic Forces,”
Reykjavik Revisited: Steps Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons, published by the Hoover Institute)
Beyond the familiar arguments … special training to learn them.
None of your take-outs apply – cyberterrorists can get around any US defense
Fritz, 09 – researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer
and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University (Jason, “Hacking Nuclear Command and
Control,” July, http://www.icnnd.org/latest/ research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_ NC2.pdf)
This paper will analyse the threat… command and control centres directly.
Nuclear terrorism independently guarantees extinction

Beres 87, Professor of Political Science and International Law at Purdue University [Louis René, Terrorism and Global
Security: The Nuclear Threat, p. 42-43]
Nuclear terrorism could even spark … bodies and imbecile imaginations.
De-alerting is key – new climate studies prove US-Russia accidental nuke war causes the apocalypse
News Blaze 9 (Qualifications for Organizations Below “Organizations Worldwide Urge Obama, Medvedev: Take
Weapons Off Alert,” July 6, http://newsblaze.com/story/ 20090706130809zzzz.nb/ topstory.html)
In a letter faxed last week to Presidents … towards the abolition of nuclear weapons.
No other impact threatens human extinction – high magnitude impacts should come first despite low probability
Sandberg et al, 8 (Anders, James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University,
PhD in computational neuroscience from Stockholm University and is a postdoctoral research assistant for the EU
Enhance project; Jason Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health. He is also a special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh
Medical Center and co-founder of New Harvest; and Milan Ćirković, senior research associate at the Astronomical
Observatory of Belgrade. He is also an assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and
Montenegro ,“How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists,
http://www.thebulletin.org/ web-edition/features/how-can- we-reduce-the-risk-of-human- extinction)
In 1983, discussion of human extinction … reduce the risk of catastrophic accidents.
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Launch inhibitors and target downloading create a survivable force that maintains deterrence, boosts confidence and
solves the risk of accidental launch
Blair 8 – president of World Security Institute (Bruce, “De-alerting Strategic Forces,” in, Reykjavik Revisited: Steps
Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons (preliminary report) Edited by George P. Shultz, Sidney D. Drell and James
Goodby, http://media.hoover.org/ documents/Drell_Goodby_ Schultz_Reykjavik_Revisited_ 25.pdf)
This report evaluates several … cause a nuclear incident or actual firing.

Only the first 2 phases of Blair’s plan are necessary
Rosenbaum, 08 (Ron, Slate Magazine, “A Real Nuclear Option for the Nominees,” 5/9, lexis)
This cyber threat offers yet … from "inadvertently" destroying itself.

Lessened pressure will convince Russia to de-alert, but even without reciprocation, the plan will extend decision times
in Russian launch
Woolf 9 (Amy, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service, “Nuclear Force Posture and
Alert Rates: Issues and Options,” Presented at the seminar on Re-framing De-Alert: Decreasing the Operational
Readiness of Nuclear Weapons Systems in the US-Russia Context in Yverdon, Switzerland, June 21-23)
Concerns about inadvertent launch … remove its weapons from alert, too.
Finally, small conflicts won’t cause a large scale reconstitution of nuclear forces or escalate crisis instability
Blair 95 (Bruce, president of the World Security Institute and Center for Defense Information, former senior fellow for
the Brookings Institute in public and foreign policy, “Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces,” Brookings Occasional
Papers, pg. 100-8)
Transitional Stability. Scenarios requiring, … response by the on looking power.
Contention 2 – Strategic cooperation
Despite the NMD concession, the underlying pattern of relations is negative

AP 9 (Fred Weir, “Russia’s response to US missile shield shift,” September 17, http://features.csmonitor.com/
globalnews/2009/09/17/russias- response-to-us-missile- defense-shield-shift/
MOSCOW – President Barack Obama’s decision to shelve… unlikely to change in any basic way.”
This makes relations crises inevitable and eliminates the possibility of strategic cooperation – even if relations improve
in the short term
Arbatov and Dvorkin, 06 - * Scholar-in-Residence and Program Co-chair of Nuclear Nonproliferation at the Carnegie
Moscow Center and head of the Center for International Security at the Institute for International Economy and
International Relationships of the Russian Academy of Sciences AND senior researcher at the Center for International
Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Alexei
and Vladimir, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence http://www.carnegieendowment. org/files/arbatov_intro.pdf)
Even when dramatic changes occur in … economic integration with the West.
Reducing tension in the nuclear relationship is the vital internal link to cooperation – this is vital to solving global
proliferation and the spread of cruise missiles
Blank, 09 - has served as the Strategic Studies Institute’s expert on the Soviet bloc and the post- Soviet world since
1989. Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and
Education, Maxwell Air Force Base (Stephen, “PROSPECTS FOR RUSSO-AMERICAN COOPERATION IN HALTING
NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION”, March, http://www. strategicstudiesinstitute. army.mil/pdffiles/PUB892.pdf
Therefore the urgency of bilateral … many other reasons for reviving this dialogue.
Cruise missile proliferation will allow even minor regional power to counterbalance US hegemony.
Nicholls 2000 [David J., Lt Colonel, USAF May, Cruise Missiles and Modern War Strategic and Technological
Implications, http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/ awcgate/cst/csat13.pdf]
The unavoidable conclusion is that … beginning of the twenty-first century.
US leadership prevents multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict – prefer it to all other alternatives
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Kagan 7 , Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert “End of Dreams, Return of
History” Policy Review http://www.hoover.org/ publications/policyreview/ 8552512.html#n10]
Finally, there is the United States… global involvement will provide an easier path.
Prolif risks nuclear war
Taylor ‘1 (Theodore, Chairman of NOVA, Former Nuclear Weapons Designer and Recipient of the US Atomic Energy
Commission’s 1965 Lawrence Memorial Award and former Deputy Dir. of Defense Nuclear Agency, “Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons”, in “Breakthrough: Emerging New Thinking”, http://www-ee.stanford.edu/~
hellman/Breakthrough/book/ chapters/taylor.html)
Nuclear proliferation - be it among … into a global nuclear war.

Relations key to solve all global problems
Taylor 8 - Atlantic correspondent living in Moscow – Jeffrey, Medvedev Spoils the Party, November,
http://www.theatlantic.com/ doc/200811u/medvedev-obama
Like it or not, the United … future arm in arm.

Changing the nuclear relationship will make NATO expansion and missile defense palatable to Russia
NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION”, March, http://www. strategicstudiesinstitute. army.mil/pdffiles/PUB892.pdf)
However, today’s world is rather different. … adversarial relationship with the United States.
Unilateral de-alerting will shift away from the perception of a U.S. first strike posture and induce Russian reciprocation
Blair, 08 – president of World Security Institute (Bruce, “De-alerting Strategic Forces,” in, Reykjavik Revisited: Steps
Goodby, http://media.hoover.org/ documents/Drell_Goodby_ Schultz_Reykjavik_Revisited_ 25.pdf)
De-alerting is feasible. Wholesale … would thus not be recommended.

Alert status has a crucial symbolic effect – the message the plan conveys about the likelihood of conflict will have a
moderating effect
Karas, 01 – Sandia National Labs (Thomas, “De-alerting and De-activating Strategic Nuclear Weapons,” April,
http://www.nti.org/e_research/ official_docs/labs/de_alt_act_ tnw.pdf
Note that not all forms of high alert … would convey the opposite message.
De-alerting will fundamentally transform the deterrent relationship with Russia

Blair, 08 – president of the World Security Institute (Bruce, “Increasing Warning and Decision Time (‘De-Alerting’)”
International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament, Oslo February 26 – 27 2008,
http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp- content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_ Blair.pdf)
De-alerting even at the initial … standing down their launch-ready forces.
Plan: The United States federal government should detarget its strategic missile forces and adopt de-alerting
measures including missile safing and refraining from installing launch inverters.
GSU round 4**

AFF V. JMU HS
judge: Will Mosley-Jensen
tricks- Does not defend US will maintain de-alert if faced with a nuclear threat.
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Iowa Hunt/Petersen (Dealert) [Logan]
Iowa HP Aff- UNI
Iowa HP (Ryan Hunt & David Petersen) Dealert Aff
Contention One: Accidents
Scenario 1: US-Russia Arsenals
World remains tense and dangerous—flashpoints and high alert weapons are a bad mix
Parkinson, '8
(Stuart Parkinson Director -- Scientists for Global Responsibility, Autumn, http://www.sgr.org.uk/newsletters/NL36.pdf)
Tensions are again… to become more acute.
Both US and Russian weapons remain on high alert—an accidental nuclear war remains a high risk
Blair and Sampson ‘8

(Bruce Blair and Victoria Samson, president of world security institute and security analyst at CDI respectively, 2008
http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-nuclear-forces-day-day-alert)
At the end…strike and nuclear war
US systems alone pose a risk
Podvig ‘6
(Pavel Podvig, physicist and dir. of security center at Stanford Science and Global Security 14 2006 “Reducing the
Risk…”)
The situation with… may be higher.
Russian and US safeguards and procedures are inadequate and declining—risk of a miscalculation or accident is high
Martin ‘8
(Matt Martin research analyst at Stanley foundation (nonpartisan think tank) 2008 p.
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/articles.cfm?id=498)
It should be… to avoid an accidental nuclear war
Claims that we are no longer on “hair trigger” alert are false and vapid military proclamations—risk of an accident and
a strike is enormous. Only
de-alerting pulls us back from the brink
Blair ‘7
Bruce Blair, world policy institute fellow, 11/6/07 p. "A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on the Alert Status of U.S.
Nuclear Forces" http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?
documentid=4135&programID=32&from_page=../friendlyversion/printversion.cfm
The statement by… launch and terrorist exploitation.
Scenario 2: Cyber Terror
Cyber ware fare penetrates nuclear control systems
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Blair ‘8
(Bruce G. Blair, 2008 [Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute, President of the Center for
Defense Information, Taking Nuclear Forces off day-to-day alert, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the
Brookings Institute, President of the Center for Defense Information Pg. 13
http://www.cdi.org/pdfs/2009NSNPbriefingbook.pdf)
A new concern has… cyber-penetration.
Hair trigger launch makes cyber warfare uniquely dangerous
Fritz ‘9
(Jason, BS (St. Cloud), MIR (bond), The International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation, "Hacking Nuclear
Command and Control"
http://74.125.95.132/search?
q=cache:_9fWutEK5tMJ:www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf+Hacking+Nuclear+Command+
and+Control&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)
Nuclear command and control… and autonomous systems
Cyber warfare can create accidents and false positives easily
Fritz 9
(Jason, BS (St. Cloud), MIR (bond), The International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation, "Hacking Nuclear
Command and Control"
http://74.125.95.132/search?
q=cache:_9fWutEK5tMJ:www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf+Hacking+Nuclear+Command+
and+Control&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)
Cyber terrorists could… found on the internet
Cyber terrorism risks starting an accidental nuclear war
Blair ‘8
(Bruce Blair, world policy institute founder and former missile soldier “Increasing Warning Time and Decisionmaking”
2008)
There are a host.. carries real risk.
Impacts:
1. Accidental launch between US or Russia leads to nuclear war
Blair ‘8
(Bruce-President of the World Security Institute, February, “Toward True Security”
www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/truesecurity.html Federation of American Scientists Natural
Resources Defense Council Union of Concerned Scientists February 2008)
While Russia retains… missing warheads for 36 hours.
2. High alert weapons create the best chance for extinction

Philips and Star ‘4
(Alan Phillips and Steven Starr, 2004 [Eliminate Launch on Warning, Phillips: Ph. D. with honours in physics at
Cambridge University, former Radar operator for the British Army, Starr: trained in nuclear engineering and works at a
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medical technologist in Columbia, MI, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation,

http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2004/09/00_phillips_eliminate-launch-warning.htm)
As long as… failure of that kind
3. Accidents and miscalculation outweigh other impacts
Stienbruner ‘8
(John Steinbruner, security studies professor at Maryland “Reframing DeAlert 2008)
Second, the continuous… for doing so.
Contention Two: Terrorism
De-alert signals multilateral efforts creating Russian co-operation
Gottemoeller ‘8
(Rose Gottemoeller Director, Carnegie Moscow Center October 2008 “Russian–American Security relations After
Georgia”
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/russia_us_security_relations_after_georgia.pdf)
In self-justification… in fact strengthening it.
US-Russian Co-operation prevents WMD terrorism
Hahn ‘9
(Gordon M. Hahn “U.S.-Russian Relations and the War against Jihadism” MAY 18, 2009
Gordon M. Hahn is a senior researcher, Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program, and visiting assistant
professor, Graduate School of International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, California;
senior researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies A Century Foundation Report.
http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2009/05/usrussian-relations-and-the-war-against-jihadism.html)
At the September 2008 World…U.S.-Russian security cooperation
US-Russia partnerships creates global effort against terrorism
Allison ‘4
(Allison, Graham Douglas Dillon Professor of Government and Director of the Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs, JFK School of Government, Harvard University, How to Stop Nuclear Terror Foreign Affairs;
Jan/Feb2004, Vol. 83 Issue 1, p64-74, 11p, 2 bw)
AS THE PRECEDING DISCUSSION… would quickly follow.
Nuclear terrorism results in extinction.
Speice ‘6
(Patrick, JD 2006 College of William and Mary, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, lexis)
Organizations such as the Russian… a full-scale nuclear conflict
US Russia relations tenuous from launch on warning—de-alert fosters positive relations
Arbatov et al ‘6
(Alexei Arbatov, Head of the Center for International Security Center of the Institute for International Economy and
International Relationships of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Dvorkin, John Steinbruner, Rose
Gottemoeller Beyond “Nuclear Deterence: Transforming the US-Russia Equation”
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2006 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetail&id=913&prog=zru)
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Alexei Arbatov: Given the current…between the US and Russia
PLAN: The United States federal government should eliminate launch-on-warning from the set of response options
available to nuclear decision-makers, and nuclear missiles in silos will be removed from external launch control. These
measures will be communicated to the Russian Federation.
Contention Three: Solvency
Implementing external controls and revised war plans buys time preventing accidents and miscalculation
Rosenbaum ‘8
(Ron Rosenbaum, Slate contributor and German historian, A Real Nuclear Option for the Nominees5/9/08 p.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/all/)
His plan has four phases… Phases 1 and 2 could be
US De-alert leads to Russia reciprocation and further security guarantees in the future
Blair ‘8
(Bruce-President of the World Security Institute, February, “Toward True Security”
www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/truesecurity.html Federation of American Scientists Natural
Resources Defense Council Union of Concerned Scientists February 2008)
By revamping its deployment… that of a deliberate attack
Unconditional unilateral actions allow for a reduction in tensions
Maise ‘3
(Michelle Maiese, professor of polisci @ Emmanuel College, 2003
http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/confidence_building_measures/)
Confidence building measures… historic Camp David Accords a year later
Unilateral US action Leads to Russian reciprocation and Negotiations—solves any case turns
Mosher et al ‘3
David E. Mosher Principal analyst, National Security Division, Congressional Budget Office; Associate Physicist,
Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University, Lowell H. Schwartz, David R. Howell, Lynn E. Davis Beyond
the Nuclear Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S-Russian Relations
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/index.html 2003
Which of the 10 options examined…and long term
US Unilaterally De-alerting now creates future bilateral agreements with Russia
Civiak ‘9
(Robert Civiak, Science Policy Research at CRS, ‘9 (Robert, Spring, “Towards a New US Nuclear Posture”
Disarmament Diplomacy, No 90, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd90/90us01.htm#en01)
As with reducing the… Non-Proliferation Treaty
Unconditional unilateral is best—results in reciprocation and preserves relations
Power ‘9
(Jonathan Power, Khaleej Times London based foreign affairs commentator “On How Not to Press the Reset Button”,
3/16/09 p. l/n)
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Precise quid pro… mood remains good
De-alert doesn’t reduce our deterrent or anger our allies
Regehr ‘9
“Ernie Regehr, professor of peace and conflict studies @ U of Waterloo, 3/26/09 p. NATO’s Strategic Concept and the
Emerging Nuclear Abolition Imperative http://www.cigionline.org/blogs/2009/3/canada%E2%80%99s-unseemly-take-
de-alerting”
In explaining its action… a retaliatory strike
Re-alert is a risk in the status quo—plan reduces, not increase its probability
Blair ‘7
(Bruce Blair, cmon, he wrote lots of these cards already 2007 Rejakavik Revisited)
De-alerting could also… alleviate this danger.
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Kansas Petersen/Wilkins (Dealert) [Logan]
Harvard Rd 5
North Korea Advantage
US engaging North Korea now, but it will fail
Bloomberg 9/30
A top U.S. diplomat said…commit to abandoning nuclear weapons
Scenario 1—Arms Race
Failure of North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons ensures a fast regional arms race and Asian economic
collapse
Jackson 7/6/9
“Obama’s nuclear plan could prevent Asian arms race,” examiner
From an East Asian security perspective…arms race described above
Regional arms race goes nuclear

Cirincione 2k
“The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain,” Foreign Policy, Spring
The blocks would fall quickest…use of a nuclear weapon since 1945
Asian recession goes global—causes millions to die and wars everywhere

Lopez 98
“Towards global recession,” Business World, Lexis
The current regional recession in Asia…away from the global recession
Growth prevents conflicts that lead to nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld 8
“The Dangers of a Diminised America,” 10/21, WSJ, Proquest
Pressures to cut defense spending…internal travails with external adventures
Plan solves—North Korean officials have explicitly linked denuclearization to US first use
Jee-ho 9/30
“North says nuclear negotiation ball in US court,” Joong Ang Daily
North Korea has thrown the ball…from the DPRK will go,” he said
Even if the US isn’t the sole reason for North Korean proliferation, the plan makes anti-proliferation efforts credible
Schwartz 8
“U.S. Security Strategy: Empowering Kim Jong-Il?” Lexis (Law Review)
North Korea has long proclaimed that its…global norm of non-proliferation
Scenario 2—War
High risk of war with North Korea now—multiple warrants

MacDonald 9
“Danger Zone,” Maclean’s 122 no29/30 22-4 Ag 3-10
Two months earlier, Yonhap, South…any point in the past two decades
It would cause extinction

Africa News 99
Oct 25, Lexis
If there is one place today where the…normalizing relations with North Korea
Most likely scenario for great power war

Stares 9
2/3, CFR
Why should we care? As a nuclear…uncoordinated actions is considerable
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The plan solves—it de-escalates tensions and prevents nuclear war

Makhijani 3
3/4, ieer.org/op-eds/radio/4nkorea.html
As the world’s attention is focused….North Korea but for all countries
Asian wars will go global

Emmott 8
“Power Rises in the East,” June 4, The Australian, Lexis
The rise of Asia is not just…danger if the relationship goes wrong
High risk of conflict in Asial—several emerging powers

Armacost and Roy 8
“America’s Role in Asia 2008,” asiafoundation.oeg
Despite this, the region needs…to become a “moral normal nation”
Kentucky Rd. 1
Pre-empton Advantage
The list of first use missions is expanding. It creates multiple scenarios for nuclear preemption
Butfoy ‘8
Senior Lecturer in International Relations @ Monash University, Melbourne, Australia [Andy Butfoy, “Washington's
Apparent Readiness to Start Nuclear War,” Survival | vol. 50 no. 5 | October–November 2008 | pp. 115–140]
A study of the opinions of non-US nationals ... policy than perhaps its proponents intend.
This collapses the nuclear firebreak without improving our deterrence – this makes nuclear war possible
Huntley ‘6
Huntley 06 - Program Director of the Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research @ University of
British Columbia. [WADE L. HUNTLEY (Former Professor of security studies @ Hiroshima Peace Institute and Director
of the Global Peace and Security Program @ Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development), “Threats all
the way down: US strategic initiatives in a unipolar world,” Review of International Studies (2006), 32, 49–67]
However, the Bush Administration’s approach ... significant practical and ethical consequences.
And, merely maintaing the option creates escalating expectations that makes use inevitable under minor
circumstances.
Gerson ‘7
Joseph, Director of Programs of the American Friends Service Committee's New England Regional Office, Peace
News, 8/16, “The Obama-Clinton Nuclear Madness”, http://www.peacenews.info/news/article/406]
I was in Hiroshima, participating in ..., further increased the dangers of nuclear war.
This perception extends globally- the US is perceived as always about to launch, baiting smaller nuclear powers to
break the taboo first.
Glaser & Fetter ‘5
Professor of Public Policy w/ a focus on security and defense policy @ University of Chicago & Professor of Public
Policy w/ a focus on nuclear arms control and nonproliferation @ University of Maryland. [Charles L. Glaser (Deputy
Dean of the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago) & Steve Fetter
(Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland), “Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear
Posture Review's New Missions,” International Security 30.2 (2005) 84-126Project Muse]
A state with vulnerable nuclear ... damage the United States’ international reputation.
Any of these scenarios would result in extinction- must have defense to any potential aggressor to win impact D.
Lopez ‘8
[Bernardo V., “UPSHOT; Nuclear psywar”, Business World, 7/18, Lexis]
With the proliferation of nuclear missiles ... the essence of the war without winners.
And, it causes cascading wars, even if the initial attack doesn’t escalate.
Blair ‘2
Bruce G. Blair, President of the Center for Defense Information & former launch officer in the Strategic Air Command,
2002
Nuclear Time Warp, http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/time-warp-pr.cfm
Even more dangerously counter-productive ... the nuclear fuse in many regional confrontations.
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An NFU specifically resolves any risk of the impact.

Peng and Rong ‘9
Peng and Rong yu, Peng Guangqian is editor-in-chief of Strategic Sciences and has long been engaged in research
on military strategy and international affairs. Rong Yu is a Ph. D. candidate at the Institute of International Strategy and
Development, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, China Security, Vol. 5 No. 1 Winter
2009, pp. 78-87, World Security Institute, http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Peng_and_Rong.pdf
In crisis situations, both first-use and NFU policies are highly ... power of wars will be under control.
Nothing else can effectively resolve inevitable global nuclear conflicts.

Grossman ‘7
Jerome, the Chairman Emeritus of the Council for a Livable World in Washington, Washington Post Writers Group.
“U.S. should promise no first use of nukes”, 6/15, http://www.cjonline.com/stories/061507/opi_177295240.shtml
When American military officials and ... by declaring a "No First Use" policy.
This also includes the modeling and solvency part of the prolif advantage.
Commitment Trap Add-on

(A) Deterrence collapse inevitable- plan solves perception of necessary retalation.
Sagan in ‘9
Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at
Stanford University, “The Case for No First Use,” June 5, 2009, Routledge, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Advocates of calculated ambiguity maintain ... nuclear retaliation in the event deterrence fails.
(B) Only retalation would escalate

Speice 6
Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-
Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded
Academic ASAP.
The potential consequences of the unchecked spread ... and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. (53)
ASAT Add-on
(A) Absent ending conventional first use ASAT pre-emption is inevitable, leads to US-China escalation.
Martel and Yoshihara ‘3
The Washington Quarterly, 26.4 (2003) 19-35 http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/washington_quarterly/v026/26.4martel.html
Strategists in the United States and in China ... given that many states depend on satellites for their economic well-
being.
(B) US will escalate with nukes

Barry ‘8
John, Newsweek, Military Section, “It's time for the United States to push for limits to what China and other countries
can do in earth orbit,” http://www.newsweek.com/id/160107, September 21, 2008
Conflict with China is unlikely ... one would not rule out even a nuclear response if those interests were attacked."
PGS Add-on/PGS DA Answers

The plan solves war with North Korea – it de-escalates tensions and prevents escalation
Makhijani 3
Arjun. President of IEER, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California
at Berkeley. He has produced many studies and articles on nuclear fuel cycle related issues, including weapons
production, testing, and nuclear waste, over the past twenty years. 3/4/3. http://www.ieer.org/op-
eds/radio/4nkorea.html.
As the world's attention is focused on Iraq ... not only for North Korea but for all countries.
NFU leads to conventional strike posture

Stanley Foundation 8
“US Nuclear Weapons Doctrine: Can We Adopt No First Use?” Policy Dialogue Brief, April 4, 2008.
Throughout the Cold War, the United States ... need a mission for weapons they already have.
Conventional upgrades key to US military leadership

Horowitz and Shalmon 9
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Michael C. Horowitz and Dan A. Shalmon, Professor of Political Science @ University of Pennsylvania & Senior
Analyst @ Lincoln Group, LLC. “The Future of War and American Military Strategy,” Orbis, Spring 2009.
Hedging will be the optimal strategy for the U.S. ... generation, but also for the next, as well.
CGS key to prevent erosion of US power projection and credibility

Ochmanek and Schwartz 8
David Ochmanek (Foreign Service of the United States (80 to 85), An officer in the United States Air Force (73 to 78)
and Master of Public Affairs degree from Princeton University) & Lowell H. Schwartz (Ph.D. candidate in War Studies
@ King's College London and M.A. in international affairs @ Johns Hopkins University), The Challenge of Nuclear-
armed Regional Adversaries, 2008
None of the analysis laid out here suggests ... they would have dangerous escalatory potential.
Hegemony solves wars across the globe

Kagan 7
Robert. (Senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund), “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review,
August & September 2007, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html
The jostling for status and influence among these ... involvement will provide an easier path.
GSU Rd. 3 Vs. Fullerton RS

The US's policy of holding potential detonation of its nuclear arsenal over the world is like holding a gun to someone's
head- it is a way for the US to force the world to comply with its wishes. This forces countries to prepare for war or bow
to the US.
Ellsberg 9/11
Daniel. Senior Fellow of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. 9/11/9. http://www. bloomingtonalternative.com/
node/10137.
In the United States … reasoning in doing so.
The squo treats implicit threats of nuclear war as something to trade in negotiations, a bargaining chip. The US says
"we won't strike you if you give us what we ask for"- our pledge not to make these threats delegitimizes
instrumentalization of nuclear weapons. This solves violence of the squo's coercive threats.
Dolar '3
Professor Department of Philosophy @ University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, Senior Research Fellow, "The Power of the
Invisible," http://static.kiberpipa.org/~break/old/dolar.htm
This leads us to the simple conclusion...it moulds our behavior in its very non-completion.
Our status quo policy of threatening first strikes is like an extortionist that sells protection insurance to a local store to
keep the extorionist from destroying the store. We force people into accepting security gaurentees of protection from
nuclear strieks in exchange for utter submission to US security paradigms. This instrumentalizes other nations.
Tilly in '85
Charles Tilly, Prof of Social Science @ Columbia, "Bringing the State Back In," 1985, p. 170-171
In contemporary American parlance,...the government has organized a protection racket.
And, even though the US would not use its nuclear weapons, the implict threat is enough. It militarizes our relations
with the world and depoliticizes nuclear war as a constant spectacle from which all should flee. Thus, the US
simultaneously inflates the value of nukes and asks for others to give up their freedom for their future.
Dolar '3
To make a step further...explicit form of a threat.
Specifically, implicit threats are the worst, they push violent language underground and make the discursive violence
the US employs invisible.
Dolar '3
The threat works at its best...an immaterial, a virtual existence.
And, this process of instrumentalizing implied threats makes war depoliticized and necessary- it becomes self-fulfilling-
we must manufacture threats to force others to seek our protection, but they only need our protection because we
made up the danger. The aff ends this vicious cycle.
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Dabashi in '7
Hamid, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/831/focus.htm, 2007
Once again the drums of war are roaring...that we must learn how to respond.
And, failure to reject the ontology of traditional instrumentalization makes you complicit in perpetuation of a state of
warfare.
Bilgin in '5
Pinar, Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow, Assistant Prof of IR @ Bilken U in Turkey, "Regional Security in the Middle
East: A Critical Perspective," p. 164
Then, given the ways in which...perpetuating regional insecurity in the Middle East.
And, the affirmative rejects an instrumental ontology that allows the exploitation of threats of warfare reducing humans
to calculable objects within the logic of a state of war. (Don't endorse gendered language).
Burke in '7
Anthony Burke, Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR @UNSW, "Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason,"
2007
Heidegger's insights into this phenomenon...strategy as 'the power to hurt.'
This ontology is worse than our nuclear threats.

Zimmerman in '93
Michael, Prof of Philosophy @ Tulane, "Contesting Earth's Future: Radical Ecology and Postmodernity," Pg. 119-120,
1993
Heidegger asserted that human self-assertion...lessened because they were never "disclosed" by humanity.
Plan: The United States federal government should ban first use of its nuclear arsenal.
The role of the ballot is to endorse a political strategy for civic engagement of nuclear institutions.
McClean '1
David, Lecturer in Philosophy @ Molloy College, 2001
Leftist American culture critics might put their...disrespect for the so-called "managerial class."
The undisclosed nature of nuclear policy allows "experts" to control decisions- encouraging citizen envolvement is key
to challenging the discourse.
Taylor '7
Bryan, associate professor in Comms @ U. Colorado-Boulder, "The Means to Match Their Hatred: Nuclear Weapons,
Rhetorical Democracy and Presidential Discourse," Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 37, Iss 4, pg 667-692
First, there is general agreement...in fueling the political fetish of weaponry.
Specific policy perscriptions are key- leaving the alterantive in the hands of (the agent) is not enough.
Martin in '90
Brain, http://www.uow.edu.au/~bmartin/pubs/90uw/uw00.html
In looking at structures such as bureaucracy or...reject them, and take action.
Public engagement on nuclear issues is key to hold policymakers accountable.

Stimson Center '1
"Beyond Deterrence: A Global Approach to Reducing Nuclear Dangers"
Ironically, a full decade out since the end...who act with political impunity.
Debates by researchers of nuclear policy are critical to shaping the way the government acts- failure to do so resutls in
secret changes in posture by the government.
Gabel '5
Josiane, Research assistant @ CSIS, Washington Quarterly, 28:1, Winter 2004-2005
The literature on the role of nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War...help inform and advatnace this debate.
Rejection of predictions ensures bureaucratic norms and regidity.

Fitzsimmons '6
Michael, defense analyst in Washington DC, "The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning," December 1, 2006,
Survival, Vol. 48, Issue 4
Another well-publicised instance where...planning rather than flexibility.
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2AC F/W Cards

Citizen advocacy for government action is a necessary step- it is key to avoid apathy and solve extinction.
Krieger '7
David, Prez Nukclear Age Peace Foundation
U.S. citizens have a critical role...depends on what we do now.
State-centric views of the topic are key to emancipatory politics- the K fails without engaging the state.
Shaw '1
Martin, Professor of IR @ U. Sussex, Review of International Studies, October 2001,
http://www.martinshaw.org/unfinished.pdf
The mistakes in this passage are also...begun to fashion a new agenda.
Freire's utopianism dooms the political allies that are necessary to overcome oppression.
Stanley '72
"Literacy," Paulo Freire
Utopianism is a problem in Freire's thought...would turn out to be in short supply.
Lack of tackling specific forms of oppression makes freire's alternative fail.

Bugbee and Elias 75/76
"Reflections on Griffith, Freire and Beyond," Literacy Discussion
One can hope that Freire will choose to address himself...and all others as oppressors.
And, our argument is empirically true- Freire conceeded his alternative has never worked.
MacEion '72
"Conscientization for the Masses," National Catholic Reporter
For years I have been...he admitted that neither has he.
Standpoint epistemology and social location arguments fetishize an impossible authentic identity.
Rolin in '6
Kristina, "The Bias Paradox in Feminist Standpoint Epistemology," Episteme: A Journal of Social Epistemology, 2006
For a long time feminist standpoint...specify a context of epistemic justification.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention 1 – No Disads
Contention 1 is no disads
Size and role

Loukianova 9
Anya. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 8/19/9. http://www.nti.org/e_research/
e3_nuclear_posture_review_ debate.html.
In August 2009, … U.S. security guarantees.
Arms control now – START, CTBT, FMCT

Marlowe 9
Lara Marlowe, Irish Times, 7-7-2009, “Nuclear-free world,” http://www.irishtimes.com/ newspaper/world/2009/0707/
1224250171705.html.
Despite continuing tensions … progress until now.

Plan
The United States federal government should adopt a nuclear no first use policy for state and non-state actors. We can
clarify.
Contention 2 – Proliferation
Contention 2 is proliferation
The world is on the brink of breakout proliferation that will lead to nuclear use – new strategies are key to solve
Wirjawan 9
Gita. Chairman of Ancora International. 6/25/9. Jakarta Post. http://www.thejakartapost.com/ news/2009/06/24/a-
global- nuclear-disorder.html.
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The world is edging … that fragile peace.
2 links
A) Security – even if we don’t detonate these weapons against a state, the policy of first use is akin to holding a gun to
someone’s head – it is the impetus for proliferation
Ellsberg 9/11
node/10137.
Later in 1990, … the rest of the world).
B) Prestige – the policy of first use inscribes military value to nuclear weapons, that reinforces the prestige of the bomb
Mendelsohn 99
Jack Mendelsohn, vice president and executive director of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security (LAWS) in
Washington, DC, is former deputy director of the Arms Control Association, “NATO’s Nuclear Weapons: The Rationale
for ‘No First Use,’” 1999, Arms Control Association,__http://www.armscontrol.org/ print/520__
The United States affirms … own nuclear arsenals.
Proliferation will be fast – multiple reasons

Utgoff 2
Victor A., Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division, Institute for Defense Analyses, “Proliferation,
Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” Survival, v. 44 n. 2, Summer 2002, p. 86-87.
As proliferation continues, … overcome all restraint.
Leads to miscalc and nuclear use

Drell and Goodby 8
Sidney (professor of physics emeritus at Stanford University and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution) and
James (a former U.S. ambassador, is currently a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a nonresident senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution). Summer 2008. The Washington Quarterly. “The Reality: A Goal of a World without
Nuclear Weapons Is Essential.” Muse.
Being caught in … a nuclear exchange.
You should err aff on this risk calculus – we only have to right in one instance
Knopf 2
Jeffrey, Department of National Security Affairs at Naval Postgraduate School, Security Studies, “Recasting the
Proliferation Optimism-Pessimism Debate”, Oct. 2002.
DEVELOPING AND testing theories … to run the experiment.”24
Additionally, this is the most dangerous form of proliferation – US policy encourages modeling that ensures first strikes
Ellsberg 9/11
node/10137.
This leads to Russian, Israeli and North Korean aggression

Hitchens 3
Theresa, Vice President, Center for Defense Information Presented at a conference on U.S. NUCLEAR POLICY AND
COUNTERPROLIFERATION http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/ counterproliferation- conference.cfm
The goal of the … it's own nuclear aggression?
Russian aggression against Chechnya goes nuclear

Pandita 1
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Dr. K.N., obtained his M.A. in Persian from the Panjab U and Ph.D. in Iranian from Teheran U, He served as a long
time as professor in the Persian Department and the Centre of Central Asian Studies @ the Jammu and Kashmir U,
__http://www.kashmir- information.com/KNPandita/ article9.html__.
This decision of the … or in the Caucasus?
Israel-Iran conflict leads to worldwar 3

Ivashov 7
Leonid, analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation, 4/21, Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War, http://www.megachip.info/
modules.php?name=Sections&op= viewarticle&artid=3871
What might cause … nightmarish than WWII.
High risk escalation

Kam 7
Ephraim, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head @ Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/
memoranda/memo88.pdf
The statements by … risk do not yet exist.
North Korean war leads to extinction

Africa News 99
October 25, LN.
If there is one … relations with North Korea.
Deterrence theory doesn’t apply in this world of nuclear weapons

Kreiger and Ong 2
David and Carah, “No First Use,” president and director of publications research at the Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, April 2002.
The fact that the … with a weapon of mass destruction.
The plan reshapes doctrines globally – ensures first strike is an illegitimate use of nuclear weapons
Sagan 9
Nuclear declaratory policy … or potential nuclear-weapons acquisition.
Finally, you should view negative arguments with skepticism – they exaggerate the benefits of deterrence and the
costs of a no first use policy
Sagan 9
Stanford University, “The Case for No First Use,” June 5, 2009, Routledge, International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Is the threat of … event that deterrence fails’.

Contention 3 – India
Contention 3 is India
First, India and Pakistan are on the brink of conflict in the status quo
Bhatt 9
Sheela Bhatt, India Abroad, “Pakistan Simmers Again; India, world, Feel the Heat,” March 20, 2009, Vol. 39, Issue 25,
pg. A20
However, Zardari's policies … same - more terrorism.
India will model a US no first use pledge – it’s key to preventing escalation
Sagan 9
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The best example … in the opposite direction.
US first use policy influences Indian strategists to broaden the role and size of its nuclear arsenal – this causes
Pakistani nuclear expansion
Koshy 9
Ninan, Fellow Harvard Law , 6/4/9. “Maximizing minimum nuclear deterrence”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/
South_Asia/KF04Df03.html.
The new Indian Minister … we are witnessing now.
That causes offensive systems to be emphasized – leads to instability

Khan 9
Feroz Hassan, Fellow Woodrow Wilson Center , PAKISTAN’S PERSPECTIVE ON THE GLOBAL ELIMINATION OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, March, http://www.stimson.org/pub. cfm?ID=798.
India’s strategic modernization … perceives from India.
Offensive doctrinal shifts guarantee a nuclear exchange – deterrence will fail

Kapur 8
(S. Paul.-, National Security Affairs Naval Postgraduate School, International Security, “Ten Years of Instability in a
Nuclear South Asia...”, Fall Lexis) __http://iis-db.stanford.edu/ pubs/22297/isec.2008.33.2.pdf__.
As noted above, nuclear … in a largely rational manner.
Extinction
Washington Times 1
July 8, LN.
The most dangerous … Material/Cut-off Convention.
GSU Round 1
versus Harvard JP
Aff—NFU Prolif, S. Asia
Neg—Weaponitis, Defense of Last Resort, Allied Prolif Da, Healthcare Good Politics
AT Allied Prolif DA
Plan solves allied prolif – inevitable now
Sagan 9
Given the current superiority…changes in declaratory policy.
1AR
Allied prolif now—NMD cut killed confidence in the umbrella, guarantees nuclear tipping point for our allies
David 9.18
[Jack, deputy assistant secretary of defense for combating weapons of mass destruction from 2004-2006, WallStreet
Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574419173653298610.html?
mod=googlenews_wsj]
The "smarter" missile-defense system …ability to protect them.
Missile defense decision guarantees allied proliferation through Europe, Japan and the Middle East now
David 9.18
mod=googlenews_wsj]
Start with Japan. Tokyo has … Iran on its own.
Obama’s pledges already triggered the link
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Halloran 9
Richard. 5/27/9. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2009/05/27/2003444613.
In addition, Japanese noted … Japan’s nuclear defense.
No Japan nuclearization – multiple constraints

Chanlett-Avery and Nikitin 9
Emma (specialist in Asian affairs) and Mary Beth (analyist in nonproliferation). “Japan’s nuclear future: policy debate,
prospects, and US interests.” Congressional Research Service. 2/19/9. Online.
This paper examines the … approach is analyzed.
Japanese nuclearization doesn’t trigger proliferation

White 8
Hugh. Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian
National University. 7/17/8. http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2008/07/A-nuclear-Japan-The-least-bad-option.aspx.
Second, more specifically, … because Japan had them?
No link
Fukuyama and Umbeyashi 9
“Japan ready for ‘no nukes’.” Google.
In fact, there are signs…Japan is ready.
AT DLR
Only a risk of a solvency deficit – no real threat
Stanley Foundation, US Nuclear Review project, Reported by Maxims News Service, 8/22/08, “The Stanley
Foundation: A New Look at No First Use of Nuclear Weapons,”
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm.
Some conference participants questioned…mating warheads to missiles.
CP is squo
Some participants were not sure that NFU…in extenuating circumstances.
Only escalation in the CP

Bernstein et al 82
www.nybooks.com/articles/6489
Draper is right to be skeptical …Europe means nuclear war.
Politics 2AC
Healthcare won’t pass
Lightman 9-17-09 www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/1238775.hmtl
“little consensus”
Healthcare derailed by future controversy

Hornick 9-8-09 edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/08/congress.priorities
“possibility of taking up a second stimulus plan”
Snowe’s key—will vote against

Goldstein 9-16-09 http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/19962
“Democrats aren’t even certain to get everyone with a “D” after their name”
Afghanistan hurts capital

Dimascio 9-16-09 www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27202.html
“drop-off couldn’t come at a worse time for Obama”
Congress only cares about numbers of nukes—not doctrine
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Amy Woolf ‘7 Nonproliferation Review 14 (3)

“divided jurisdiction over nuclear weapons policy”
Winners win
Plan is a win
Cirincione ‘8 http://lostintransition.nationaljournal.com/2008/11/arms-control.php
“represent an early political victory”
Key to agenda
Johnathan Singer ‘9 www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428
“political capital can be regenerated”
Public o/w military

Steinbruner and Gallagher ‘8 www.armscontrol.org/print/2615
“evoke broad public approval despite the resistance they might encounter in their security bureaucracies”
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Missouri State Frederick/Gilmore (Dealert) [Logan]
Missouri State FG
GSU Aff Disclosure

The START process makes De-alerting inevitable in the future but is too slow to solve our impacts – de-alerting now is
key
Bruce Blair (President, world security institute) September 1999 “Back from the Brink - Interview - Dr. Bruce Blair”
http://www.argumentations.com/Argumentations/StoryDetail_595.aspx
Does de-alerting fit neatly….. this immediate problem.
Also, the US has already de-alerted a large fraction of its forces
Pavel Podvig (researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University) May 2006
“Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/21283/14_2-3__Podvig.pdf
As a practical step, the….. by de-alerting measures
And, recently Obama and Medvedev agreed to de-alert 200 warheads
Pasadena Weekly August 5, 2009 “Defusing a global threat”

http://www.pasadenaweekly.com/cms/story/detail/defusing_a_global_threat/7565/
Negotiate a new treaty with Russia….. still poised to launch.
De-mating is they surest way to solve
Arjun Makhijani (President of IEER, holds a Ph.D. in engineering) October 1998 “De-Alerting: A First Step”
http://www.ieer.org/latest/de-alert.html
The surest way of…. capable of carrying them.
Keeping subs on ‘modified alert’ solves – doesn’t decrease survivability at all
Frank von Hippel (a professor of public and international affairs at Princeton) November 1998 “De-alerting Nuclear
Missiles” http://www.nautilus.org/archives/library/security/papers/von_hippelISODARCO.PDF
SLBMs. U.S. Trident submarines…. the forces were de-alerted.
Plan is key to give Russia political cover to take their weapons off of alert
Bruce Blair et al (President, World Security Institute) February 2008 “toward True Security Ten Steps the Next
President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy”
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/toward-true-security.pdf
While Russia’s deployed…. intercept Russia’s remaining missiles.
Hold all of their evidence to a higher standard in the context of de-alerting
Federation of American Scientists November 2007 “A Rebuttal to Brown and Deutch Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal”
Online
Arguments justifying the continuing…. prohibition on nuclear weapons.
This reverses presumption
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Sam Nunn ( ) July 2004 “A Safer Form of Deterrence and Security Proliferation Brief”
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2004/07/07_nunn_safer-deterrence.htm
The presidents should then…. in the United States
Advantage 1 is Accidental Launch
The threat of miscalculation and accidents is extremely high now – false alarms happen multiple times daily with very
limited time to assess. This makes rational deliberation impossible
Bruce Blair (President, World Security Institute) February 2008 “Increasing Warning and Decision Time (‘De-Alerting’)”
http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_Blair.pdf
A high degree of vigilance…. less than one hour
US military command and control structure rigs the decision-making process to make massive retaliation a near
certainty
Bruce Blair (president, World Security Institute) February 2004 “Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark”
http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch‐on‐warning.cfm
Given the awesome responsibility… ducks for very long
Russia is about to deploy missiles with multiple warheads making pushing Russia even closer to the trigger
With the demise of… as on their numbers
Extremely frequent hacking and Cyber-terror attacks make accidental launch inevitable without de-alerting
There are a host of reasons…. signals carries real risk
This avoids all your generic defense and ensures escalation – Cyberterrorists have empirically made attempts to hack
our submarines
Jason Fritz (Director of New Media Learning & Development and editor of the Office of Information Technology) May
2009 “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control” http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf
This paper will analyse the… control centres directly.
Multiple factors make accidental launch more likely than in the Cold War
The Washington Office (public policy information and advocacy office of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian
Church) August 2008 “Launch on Warning and the Nuclear Hair Trigger”
http://www.pcusa.org/washington/issuenet/gs-001211.htm
Accordingly, within just a few… planes had been launched.
The threshold for our impact is pretty low – it only takes one mishap or computer glitch to cause escalation
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Allan Phillips (retired physician who did radar research for the British army during WWII) and Steven Starr (trained in
nuclear engineering, works as a medical technologist in Columbia, Missouri) 2004 “Eliminate Launch on Warning”
http://www.scienceforpeace.ca/0409-eliminate-launch-on-warning
One of the most likely… This is inexcusably dangerous.
Accidental launch from high alert weapons causes extinction
Ira Helfand and John Pastore (both past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility) March 31, 2009, “U.S.-
Russia nuclear war still a threat”, http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-
09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html
President Obama and Russian… remains in place today.
Our impact is the fastest and most important – dealerting is key to solve global nuclear incineration that could occur in
a matter of minutes
Douglas Mattern (a Silicon Valley engineer, is president of the Association of World Citizens) at least 2005 (latest cited
work) “A Critical Time in Human History - Escalating Nuclear Disarmament”
http://www.worldcitizens.org/criticaltime.html
In his article "Apocalypse Now… until the goal is reached.
Our internal link is the only plausible scenario for full scale nuclear war – keeping missiles on alert is the only way for
global nuclear war to happen
Bruce Blair (President, World Security Institute) June 2000 “Trapped in the Nuclear Math”
http://www.cdi.org/issues/proliferation/blairnytimes6.12.00.html
Getting to below 2,000… country other than Russia.
Advantage 2 is Indo-Pak
There is tension in South Asia now and there will be inevitably. Both countries are ramping up their nuclear capabilities
Zia Mian (physicist with the Program on Science and Global Security at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and
International Affairs at Princeton University) July 27, 2009 “Pushing South Asia Toward the Brink”
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6295
The contradictions and… India as prisoners of war.
South Asia will model US-Russian high alert posture in the future – plan is key to prevent Indo-pak hair trigger status
and solve an inevitable war
Zia Mian (a Pakistani physicist on the research staff of Princeton University) R. Rajaraman (a professor of physics at
the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi) and Frank von Hippel (a professor of public and international affairs at
Princeton) August 2002 “U.S.-Russian Lessons for South Asia” http://www.fpif.org/pdf/gac/0208nukelessons.pdf
The current South Asian… Down that path lies disaster
Accidents are uniquely likely now - India just bought their first early warning system and Pakistan will follow soon
Dr. Ajey Lele (a New Delhi based defence analyst at the Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict) June 9, 2009
“Induction of Airborne Warning System: Revolutionizing Indian Air Force” http://sspconline.org/article_details.asp?
artid=art185
On 27 May 2009… sovereign state at its own will!
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De-alerting prevents Indo-pak war
Morton Mintz ((a former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter)
February 2001 “Two Minutes to Launch” http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch
By creating an international… hair-trigger-alert procedures.
Impact is extinction
The Washington Times July 08, 2001
The most dangerous place… Material/Cut-off Convention.
Advantage 3 is Prolif
Wildfire proliferation is inevitable now because of US hair trigger alert status – it sends a very potent signal that the US
isn’t serious about elimination of nuclear weapons
Bhuwan Thapaliya (Nepal-based economist, author, analyst, and journalist. He serves as an Associate Editor of The
Global Politician) October 2005 “America's Catastrophic Nuclear Administration”
http://www.globalpolitician.com/21289-nuclear
The hyper destructive power… a further catastrophic dilemma.
And, Proliferation will snowball.
Utgoff, 2002 (Victor A., Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense
Analyses. In 1998–99, he established the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office, former senior member of the
National Security Council Staff, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and
American Ambitions”)
As proliferation continues… that already has them.
Here’s reverse causal evidence - this visible form of de-alerting sends a key signal that Cold War intentions are gone.
Academics agree that this is key
Amy F. Woolf (Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service) June 2009 “Nuclear Force
Posture and Alert Rates: Issues and Options” http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Woolf.pdf
During the Cold War… in the right direction.
Plan is key to international coalition that exerts crucial pressure and creates an international norm that deters potential
proliferators
Sam Nunn (Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, former US senator) 2007 ““The
Mountaintop: A World Free of Nuclear Weapons” http://www.nti.org/c_press/speech_samnunn_cfr07.pdf
Recently, former President… a nuclear weapon.
This signal spills over into other proliferation issues - Full de-alerting is key to solving a multitude of internal links to
proliferation
Bruce Blair (President, World Security Institute) 2000 “Nuclear Dealerting: A Solution to Proliferation Problems”
http://www.cdi.org/dm/2000/issue3/dealerting.html
When President Clinton announced… beset the nuclear universe.
De-alerting solves conflict escalation – aff solves your terminal impacts
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Thomas H. Karas (Advanced Concepts Group Sandia National Laboratories) April 2001 “De-alerting and De-activating
Strategic Nuclear Weapons” http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/labs/de_alt_act_tnw.pdf
On the other hand.. it might slow the pace
The impact is extinction
Stuart Taylor (Senior Writer with the National Journal and editor at Newsweek) 2002 Legal Times, 9-16-2002]
The truth is, no matter… nuclear attack by others.
And, rapid proliferation is uniquely bad – preemption, biological weapons.
Many readers are probably… as biological weapons.
Deterrence does not check escalation – history and human nature.
We can almost hear the kinds of words… iolence are readily accessible.
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Missour State Foley/Kearney (Dealert) [Logan]
Missouri State FK
Various versions:
Plan: The United States Federal Government should de-alert its nuclear weapons arsenal by de-mating nuclear
warheads from intercontinental ballistic missiles and placing submarines on modified alert.
Plan: Wake Forest should relax about the plan text, which was in the original email.
GSU Aff Disclosure

*1AC No Disads (1)*
Contention One: No Disads
Slow de-alerting inevitable now but doing plan now key
Bruce Blair (President, world security institute) September 1999 “Back from the Brink - Interview - Dr. Bruce Blair”
http://www.argumentations.com/Argumentations/StoryDetail_595.aspx
Does de-alerting fit neatly AND de-alerting to address this immediate problem.
The US has already de-alerted a large fraction of its forces
Pavel Podvig (researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University) May 2006
“Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/21283/14_2-3Podvig.pdf
As a practical step, the AND be seriously affected by de-alerting measures
Plus, in 1991 both the US and Russia unilaterally de-alerted ALL of our bombers, hundreds of missiles, and ten
submarines
TFF (Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research) March 2009 “On how not to press the re-set button”
http://www.transnational.org/Columns_Power/2009/10.ResetButton.html
Two great presidents were responsible AND their launch keys taken away from them
And, recently Obama and Medvedev announced to de-alert 200 warheads
Pasadena Weekly August 5, 2009 “Defusing a global threat”

http://www.pasadenaweekly.com/cms/story/detail/defusing_a_global_threat/7565/
Negotiate a new treaty with Russia AND which each nation is still poised to launch.
*1AC Solvency (1)*
De-mating key to completely eliminate risk of accidental launch and solves conflict escalation
Douglas Mattern (a Silicon Valley engineer, is president of the Association of World Citizens) 2001 “The Time of the
Nuclear Nightmare Must Have a Stop” http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0810-06.htm
The highest priority in our world AND could be reloaded on the missiles
Modified alert solves – doesn’t decrease survivability
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Frank von Hippel (a professor of public and international affairs at Princeton) November 1998 “De-alerting Nuclear
Missiles” http://www.nautilus.org/archives/library/security/papers/von_hippelISODARCO.PDF
SLBMs. U.S. Trident submarines AND option would have to be abandoned if the forces were de-alerted.
*1AC Solvency (2)*
Only reducing operational readiness of high alert weapons solves extinction – plan is key
John Hallam (Nuclear campaigner and editor Nuclear Flashpoints) June 2009 “Commonsense Measures to Avoid An
Accidental Apocalypse” http://pndnsw.org.au/articles/features/91-commonsense-measures-to-avoid-an-accidental-
apocalypse.html
Nuclear weapons Operating Status or Operational Readiness AND. This presents a vital opportunity that must be
seized
Plan is key to give Russia political cover to take their weapons off of alert
While Russia’s deployed arsenal will AND intercept Russia’s remaining missiles.
*1AC Solvency (3)*
Hold all of their evidence to a higher standard in the context of de-alerting
Federation of American Scientists November 2007 “A Rebuttal to Brown and Deutch Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal”
Online
Arguments justifying the continuing AND every effort to move toward a global prohibition on nuclear weapons.
This reverses presumption
Sam Nunn ( ) July 2004 “A Safer Form of Deterrence and Security Proliferation Brief”
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2004/07/07_nunn_safer-deterrence.htm
The presidents should then jointly adopt an approach and a timetable to get the job done and challenge other nuclear
nations to follow this lead. If the defense establishments AND in Russia and in the United States
Accidents Adv
*1AC Accidental Launch Advantage (1)*
Advantage is Accidental Launch
The threat of miscalculation and accidents is extremely high now – false alarms happen multiple times daily with very
limited time to assess. This makes rational deliberation impossible
A high degree of vigilance suffuses the AND essential course would be run in less than one hour.
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*1AC Accidental Launch Adv (2)*
US military command and control structure rigs the decision-making process to make massive retaliation a near
certainty
Bruce Blair (president, World Security Institute) February 2004 “Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark”
http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm
Given the awesome responsibility and AND that U.S. missiles did not remain sitting ducks for very long
*1AC Accidental Launch (3)*
Now is the key time – we’ll isolate several specific internal links
First - Russia is about to mount multiple warheads on ICBMs pushing Russia even closer to the trigger
With the demise of START II And on their operational status as on their numbers
Second - Extremely frequent hacking and Cyber-terror attacks make accidental launch inevitable
There are a host of reasons why AND of computer signals carries real risk.
This avoids all your generic defense and ensures escalation – Cyberterrorists have empirically made attempts to hack
our submarines
Jason Fritz (Director of New Media Learning & Development and editor of the Office of Information Technology) May
2009 “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control” http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf
This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism AND need for compromising command and control centres
directly.
Third is Russia – multiple factors make accidental launch more likely than in the Cold War
The Washington Office (public policy information and advocacy office of the General Assembly of the Presbyterian
Church) August 2008 “Launch on Warning and the Nuclear Hair Trigger”
http://www.pcusa.org/washington/issuenet/gs-001211.htm
Accordingly, within just a few minutes AND after Air Force planes had been launched.
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Fourth is simple human error and boredom
Lloyd J. Dumas (Professor of political economy at the University of Texas at Dallas) 2004 “Waking up to the Real
Threats to Security in the Post-Cold War World” http://www.slmk.org/main/artiklar/Human_Factor.pdf
According to a 1998 study by the U.S. General AND does not solve the human reliability problem.
The threshold for our impact is pretty low – it only takes one mishap cause escalation
Allan Phillips (retired physician who did radar research for the British army during WWII) and Steven Starr (trained in
nuclear engineering, works as a medical technologist in Columbia, Missouri) 2004 “Eliminate Launch on Warning”
http://www.scienceforpeace.ca/0409-eliminate-launch-on-warning
One of the most likely causes AND . This is inexcusably dangerous.
Extinction
Ira Helfand and John Pastore (both past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility) March 31, 2009, “U.S.-
Russia nuclear war still a threat”, http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-
09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html
President Obama and Russian President AND weapons that existed in 1995 remains in place today.
This is the most probable scenario
John Hallam (Nuclear campaigner and editor Nuclear Flashpoints) June 2009 “Commonsense Measures to Avoid An
Accidental Apocalypse” http://pndnsw.org.au/articles/features/91-commonsense-measures-to-avoid-an-accidental-
apocalypse.html
Even in the case of the ‘rogue AND have been very, very, high.
Our impact is the fastest and most important – dealerting is key to solve global nuclear incineration that could occur in
a matter of minutes – we have been lucky up until now
Douglas Mattern (a Silicon Valley engineer, is president of the Association of World Citizens) at least 2005 (latest cited
work) “A Critical Time in Human History - Escalating Nuclear Disarmament”
http://www.worldcitizens.org/criticaltime.html
In his article "Apocalypse Now" published AND the struggle continuously until the goal is reached.
De-alerting solves conflict escalation – aff solves your terminal impacts
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On the other hand, it seems AND, but it might slow the pace
India/Pakistan Adv
*1AC India Pakistan Adv (1)*
There is tension in South Asia now - both countries are ramping up their nuclear capabilities
Zia Mian (physicist with the Program on Science and Global Security at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and
International Affairs at Princeton University) July 27, 2009 “Pushing South Asia Toward the Brink”
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6295
The contradictions and confusions AND, with India's help, and 90,000 Pakistani soldiers captured by India as prisoners
of war.
*1AC India-Pakistan Adv (2)*
South Asia nuclear alert is inevitable without US de-alerting – plan sends a key signal
Zia Mian (a Pakistani physicist on the research staff of Princeton University) R. Rajaraman (a professor of physics at
the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi) and Frank von Hippel (a professor of public and international affairs at
Princeton) August 2002 “U.S.-Russian Lessons for South Asia” http://www.fpif.org/pdf/gac/0208nukelessons.pdf
The current South Asian crisis AND Down that path lies disaster
Accidents are uniquely likely now – new early warning systems
Dr. Ajey Lele (a New Delhi based defence analyst at the Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict) June 9, 2009
“Induction of Airborne Warning System: Revolutionizing Indian Air Force” http://sspconline.org/article_details.asp?
artid=art185
On 27 May 2009 Indian AND their sovereign state at its own will!
De-alerting prevents Indo-pak war
Morton Mintz ((a former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter)
February 2001 “Two Minutes to Launch” http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch
By creating an international AND -alert procedures.
Extinction
Parveen Chopra (writer for Tai Kazi – a Pakistani News Agency) April 2008 “India-Pakistan nuclear war would spell
global calamity: study” http://www.naitazi.com/2008/04/08/india-pakistan-nuclear-war-would-spell-global-calamity-
study/
A brief nuclear war between AND n, thus polluting the food chain.
Nunn-Lugar Adv
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*1AC Nunn-Lugar Adv (1)*
Advantage is Nunn-Lugar
Physical de-mating is key to ensure nunn-lugar success – otherwise theft is inevitable – Hair trigger alert is the Achilles
heel of nuclear security
Bruce Blair (President, World Security Institute) 2007 “Primed and Ready” EBSCO
Since the inception of the Cooperative AND unauthorized or inadvertent missile launch.
Plan is key to prevent complete program collapse
The simple fact that AND combat-ready forces is ended
*1AC Nunn-Lugar Adv (3)*
And now is key - Russia recently imposed massive restrictions on CTR programs because of a lack of equal access for
inspections and monitoring
Richard Weitz (a Hudson Institute senior fellow and a World Politics Review senior editor) August 4, 2009 “Global
Insights: Opportunities and Challenges Await New DTRA Director” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?
id=4158
Since the enactment of AND certain Russian WMD sites.
De-alerting key to create momentum for a robust verification regime that solves Russian suspicion
Bruce Blair (president, World Security Initiative) March 1998 “Hearings on The Changing Strategic Landscape of
Nuclear Policy” http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/1998/0331defense_blair.aspx
* It would project, over the long run, AND fear that covert stockpiles exist.
*Nunn-Lugar Adv (4)*
This ensures a window of observation into the US reduction process – solves a key impediment
Joseph Cirincione (the Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) 2001
“Senator Richard Lugar on Threat Reduction and Defense”
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=721&prog=zgp&proj=znpp&zoom_highlight=
%22nunn-lugar%22
I am convinced that Nunn-Lugar AND under an arms control regime.

Even failed terrorist attacks risk global escalatory conflict culminating in extinction
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed (staff writer, Al-Ahram) September 1, 2004 issue number 705, “Extinction!”,
We have reached a point AND the whole planet, we will all be losers.
Russian politics Adv
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Advantage is Russian Politics
Recent missile defense concession by the US gives Medvedev a political win now – but his recently softened position
on Iran has made Russian elites uniquely cautious towards any concessions to the West
George Bovt (Russian journalist and commentator who served as editor-in-chief of Profil (a Russian weekly magazine)
and Business Week Russia from 2004 to 2007) September 30, 2009 “Where do the “concessions” to the US end for
Medvedev?” http://www.eu-russiacentre.org/our-publications/column/concessions-medvedev.html
Of course, President AND Russian economy and society.
Internal political stability is dependent on this posture of maintaining macho posturing against the West to divert
attention from internal economic crises
Lilia Shevtsova (senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Centre) October 2008 “Russıan Roulette”
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/theworldtoday.pdf
The war between Russia and Georgia AND state before it collapses and Russia repeats the end of the Soviet Union.
Massive nuclear concessions are inevitable now – Russia can’t sustain current deployments – they are looking to
disguise weakness through reciprocal nuclear reductions
The Telegraph July 6, 2009 “Russia has little bargaining power in negotiations with Barack Obama”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/5758792/Russia-has-little-bargaining-power-in-negotiations-
with-Barack-Obama.html
Instead, Mr Medvedev leads AND perfectly capable of maintaining this arsenal.
Plan provides the cover Russia needs to save face

While Russia’s deployed AND Russia’s remaining missiles.
Biden’s recent comments ensure that any unilateral concession by Russia on security issues will be pinned directly on
their economy – political cover is critical to solve backlash
Daniel Larison (a Ph.D. student at the University of Chicago and Contributing Editor to The American Conservative)
July 25, 2009 “Reset” Means Obedience” http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2009/07/25/reset-means-obedience/
What may be most remarkable about AND was never the administration’s goal.
Internal Russian crisis causes global armageddon

Bruce Blair (President, World Security Initiative) 1998 “Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose
Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_n52/ai_20852430/?
tag=content;col1
Whereas the principal aim of American AND current military weakness increases their susceptibility to fear and panic.
Crisis stability Adv
*1AC Crisis Stability Advantage*
Adv __ is crisis escalation
International crises are inevitable – they can happen at any time

Ward Wilson (former Fellow at the Robert Kennedy Memorial Foundation) 2006 “Rationale for a study of City
Annihilations,” http://wardhayeswilson.squarespace.com/city_annihilation/
One of the characteristics of AND about risk and rationality
This makes breakneck re-alerting inevitable – de-alerting key to solve

Bruce Blair (president of World Security Institute) 2008 “De-alerting Strategic Forces,” in, Reykjavik Revisited: Steps
Goodby, http://media.hoover.org/documents/Drell_Goodby_Schultz_Reykjavik_Revisited_25.pdf
De-alerting could also strengthen crisis AND to alleviate this danger.
De-alerting sends a key signal that eases international tensions – squo reversal signals incrased willingness to use
nukes
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At the same time, most AND important role for them.
We’ll isolate several internal links to escalation

First – Nuclear signaling - Surging alert levels uniquely lead to miscalculations during crises that cause rapid
escalatory nuclear conflicts
Stephen J. Cimbala (professor of political science at Penn State University) 1999 “Nuclear Crisis Management and
Information Warfare” Parameters
Crisis management, including AND of the other's beliefs about what the first side will do.[21]
Second – command authority - Rapid escalation in alert levels causes decentralized command authority – makes
uncontrollable escalation inevitable
Scott Sagan (professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and
Cooperation) 1990 “Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management” in “Nuclear diplomacy and crisis management: an
International security reader” p. 191-3
A “NO-ALERTS” POLICY? It would AND steps might lead to uncontrolled escalation.
No offense – signal of resolve is drowned out by domestic political backlash – compounds mixed signal –
independently collapses the economy
Scott Sagan (professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and
Cooperation) 1990 “Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management” in “Nuclear diplomacy and crisis management: an
International security reader” p. 191-7
The third point that the AND for escalation or deescalation.’°3
Extinction
T.E. Bearden (LTC U.S. Army (ret) Director of Association of Distinguished American Scientists and Fellow Emeritus,
Alpha Foundation’s Institute for Advanced Study) 2000 “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly”, 6-
24-2k, http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm
History bears out that AND for many decades
Plan leads to strict international norms against nuclear alert that solves crisis instability and escalation – re-alerting
post-plan either won’t happen or will be stable – key to prevent global nuclear war
Bruce Blair (president, World Security Institute) 1997 “Command, Control, and Warning for Virtual Arsenals” in Mazaar
‘Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World” p. 62-71
After reviewing the U.S. nuclear posture, the AND harmony with improved political relations.
Unilateral US de-alerting spills over and lead to deeper de-alerting measures over time – dramatically improves global
nuclear safety
David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz, David R. Howell, and Lynn E. Davis, BEYOND THE NUCLEAR SHADOW: A
PHASED APPROACH FOR IMPROVING NUCLEAR SAFETY AND U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, 2003, RAND
Corporation p. 141.
The initiative would begin AND militaries will have to work closely together to achieve success.
Most probable scenario

Franklin Shiels (Professor of Government at Mercy College) 1993 “Preventing the Ultimate Disaster: Misperception at
Damgaard Petersen, and Paul Smoker, p 135-6
Some recent strategic AND before the Austrian archduke’s assassination.
none
Looking for tags?

"Details and Tags".
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Northwestern Gregg/Lee (Dealert-RLOAD) [Logan]
Northwestern GL
Nwstrn Gregg-Lee aff vs. Idaho State Copenhaver & Weedon
Gonzaga Round 3
Judge: Vega, Matt ==
Obama overtures won’t solve—breeding resentment and increasing the potential for crises
Brij Khindaria, 7/25/2009 [International Columnist on International Politics for The Moderate Voice, Obama and Biden
are seeing a new “cool war” with Russia, http://themoderatevoice.com/40689/obama-and-biden-are-seeding-a-
new-“cool-war”-with-russia/]
"Even as he asserts his desire to reset relations with Russia in a positive direction, President Barack Obama is "
AND
"and gas, so Obama will not be able to easily unite Europeans to confront Russia’s political ambitions."
These crisis conditions exacerbate the potential for accidents—stress and short decision time make launch inevitable,
even with faulty or questionable data
A. G. Arbatov, et. Al, 2001 [V. S. Delous, A.A. Pikaev, V. G. Baranovsky, Institute of International Economy and
Foreign Relations at the the Russian Academy of Sciences, De-Alerting Russian and US nuclear weapons: A path to
reducing nuclear dangers, http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html]
"Experts in the area of complex systems notice a deep correlation between the probability of occurrence of "
AND
"active inventory."
There is no “ride-out” option under Launch on Warning—any perceived strike will be responded to with nuclear
retaliation
Bruce G. Blair, 2004 [Ph. D, Center for Defense Information President, Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark,
http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm]
"What is misleading about the briefing is that the president’s supporting command system is not actually geared to "
AND
"very long."
Glitches exacerbate the potential for accidents

"As historical experience demonstrates, the highest potential danger of an accidental nuclear conflict lies in the "
AND
"false alarms of an incoming nuclear missile attack by the adversary."
These accidents quickly escalate into full-scale war

Morton Mintz, 2001 [former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter, The
American Prospect, Two Minutes to Launch, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch]
"Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and fueled at all times. Two "
AND
"all of us," explains Bruce Blair. "It would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote.""
Modern weaponry coupled with Launch on Warning increases potential for escalation
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"An accidental launch of an intercontinental missile, from land or from sea, or a detonation of a nuclear "
AND
"the launch of all weapons which are maintained on alert, in an exchange of massive nuclear strikes."
Rationality goes out the window after a perceived launch—quickly escalates

"Such instability causes a situation in which, as Professor Paul Braken correctly stated, "no one wants war, but "
AND
"from many failures and false alarms in the early missile warning systems."
Launch on Warning guarantees extinction

Alan Phillips and Steven Starr, 2004 [Eliminate Launch on Warning, Phillips: Ph. D. with honours in physics at
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2004/09/00_phillips_eliminate-launch-warning.htm]
"As long as the United States and Russia retain their arsenals of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles, "
AND
"that kind."
This is the most likely scenario for war

Dr. Alan Phillips, 2003 [Ph. D. with honours in physics at Cambridge University, former Radar operator for the British
Army, Interview, http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]
"At the present time, I think an accidental war is far more likely than an intentional one. An intentional one could
happen I "
AND
"happened already."
Accidental war is the most probable scenario for US-Russia nuclear war
FAS et al, Federation of American Scientists, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Union of Concerned Scientists,
2008
Toward True Security, http://www.fas.org/press/_docs/Toward%20True%20Security%202008%20.pdf
"By revamping its deployment practices so it could no longer launch its nuclear forces promptly, the United States
would reduce Russia’s incentive to "
AND
"prevent the United States from retaliating with its surviving nuclear weapons."
Extinction
Bostrom 02 (Dr. Nick Bostrom, Dr. & Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale, 3/8/02, “Existential Risks:
Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” http://www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html)
"With the exception of a species-destroying comet or asteroid impact (an extremely rare occurrence), there "
AND
"encounter in the 21st century."
Abandoning Launch on Warning solves the risk of accidental warfare with Russia
Army, No Launch on Warning, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/05/00_phillips_no-launch.htm]
"If Russia and the US were actually to abandon the option of launching on warning, even while they retained "
AND
"does not even depend on the other side knowing that the change has been made."
Russian posture is irrelevant—plan dramatically reduces chance of accidents

Army, An Introduction to No Launch on Warning, http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]
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Q9: Why do you say that reciprocity with "No Launch on Warning" is not important?
"Because not responding to a false alarm does not put that side at any disadvantage. If one side is at "no "
AND
"would be halved because the risk on the Russian side may be greater."
Contention II: Politics of Vulnerability

Violence is inevitably part of the human condition—making ourselves vulnerable in the face of that violence is the only
way to build effective relationships with each other
Katherine Mills, 2002 [Professor of Philosophy at University of South Wales in Sydney, Australia, Normative Violence,
Vulnerability, and Responsibility, http://differences.dukejournals.org/cgi/reprint/18/2/133.pdf]
"In contrast, Butler moves toward a conception of responsibility that is founded not only on our mutual "
AND
"understanding of ethics would necessitate letting go of at least some dimensions of the account of subjectivation."
The vulnerability to death accepted by the plan is the only true ethical gesture—allows us to recognize shared
vulnerability and build relationships with the Other
John Milbank, 1999 [Francis Gall Professor of Philosophical Theology at the University of Virginia, The Ethics of Self-
Sacrifice, http://www.leaderu.com/ftissues/ft9903/articles/milbank.html]
"Secondly, they hold that death, far from being complicit with evil as religious traditions have often taken it to "
AND
"self–interest."
The plan suspends the reaction to violence by making immediate retaliation impossible—allows reflection on shared
vulnerability and a meaningful relationship with violence and the Other
Fiona Jenkins, 2007 [Senior Lecturer in Philosophy at the Australian National University, Toward a Nonviolent Ethic:
Reponse to Catherine Mills, http://differences.dukejournals.org/cgi/reprint/18/2/157.pdf]
"What might it mean,” Judith Butler asks in the context of a reflection on responsibility, “to undergo "
AND
"essential to what is (not) done in refusing a reciprocal gesture of returning injury."
The plan’s suspension of response inculcates an ethic of nonviolence and mutual vulnerability in US foreign policy
Judith Butler, 2003 [Maxine Elliot professor in the Departments of Rhetoric and Comparative Literature at University of
California, Berkeley, Interview, http://www.believermag.com/issues/200305/?read=interview_butler]
"JS: If revenge becomes cyclical because one strike leads to another ad infinitum, one way to stop the cycle "
AND
"There, we got to gender pretty quickly, didn’t we?"
Answers to Security/Raisch K
Role of the ballot is to indorse a political strat of civic engagement with nuclear institutions
Mcclean 1 “leftist American culture” and “philosophers and culture critics”
Public engagement in nuclear issues holds policymakers accountable

Stimson 1 “nuclear dangers are more clear” and to reduce nuclear dangers”
Academia key
Shaw 9 web bas
“higher education must educate” and “behind in preparing our best and brightest”
Specific demands and institutuional engagement solves righ-wing takeover

Hogan 94 the nuclear freeze campaign p30-1
“further narrowing the agenda” and “house freeze resolution”
Turns and outweighs – boggs p 250-1

“but it is a very deceptive” and “ muddling-through theories”
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Public engagement in nuc issues holds policymakers accountable

Stimson 1
“nuclear dangers are more” and “to reduce nuclear dangers”
Students must debate nuclear policy – next generations experts solve extinction
Shaw 9 “higher education must educate” and higher education institutions”
Informed citizenry’s crucial to disarm debates

Hogan 94
P162 “ideological bias” and journalists regarded themselves”
Reducing the threat of nuclear war’s key to engage the public and challenge the state – the al’t extinction
Beres 94 lexis LR
“educating people to the truth” and “international cooperation”
Combining realism with ethical prohibitions agains the use of nuc weapons solves their impacts and prevents war
Sagan 4
“leaders of states behave in a highly” and nature of their actions”
Linking disarm to security builds momentum for global zero

Perkovich 9
“in any debate, there is a tendency” and “Washington must lead”
Strategic analysis of security issues fosters responsible use of force – the alt’s unrestrained military intervention
Betts 97 Project muse
“a specter is haunting strategic studies” and “disjoining political and military logic”
Nwstrn Gregg-Lee aff vs. UNLV Bato-Meneses
Gonzaga Round 1
Judge: Mckeehan, Grant ==
Sub encroachment proves the possibility for miscalculation—Russia is posturing and U.S. warning systems are
unreliable
Caspar Weinberger, Jr., 8/12/2009 [1968 graduate of Harvard College, former telivision writer, and served in both
California Gov and President Reagan’s administrations, ‘The Russians are Coming, the Russians are Coming,’ Yet
Again, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=33101]
Are the Russians coming to ...
serious thought to a first strike.
Obama overtures won’t solve—breeding resentment and increasing the potential for crises
Brij Khindaria, 7/25/2009 [International Columnist on International Politics for The Moderate Voice, Obama and Biden
are seeing a new “cool war” with Russia, http://themoderatevoice.com/40689/obama-and-biden-are-seeding-a-
new-“cool-war”-with-russia/]
Even as he asserts his ...
to confront Russia’s political ambitions.
These crisis conditions exacerbate the potential for accidents—stress and short decision time make launch inevitable,
even with faulty or questionable data
Experts in the area of ...
which are retained in active inventory.
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There is no “ride-out” option under Launch on Warning—any perceived strike will be responded to with nuclear
retaliation
Bruce G. Blair, 2004 [Ph. D, Center for Defense Information President, Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark,
What is misleading about the briefing is that the …
U.S. missiles did not remain sitting ducks for very long.
The arsenal is still maintained on high alert

Washington Post, 2007 [U.S. official is faulted for nuclear weapons claim, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/10/31/AR2007103102801.html]
Speaking at an Oct. 9 U.N. conference, Christina Rocca, …
some of it is an evasion, and some of it is just an outright lie."
Terrorists will target early warning systems

Bruce G. Blair, 2008 [Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute, President of the Center for
Defense Information, Taking Nuclear Forces off day-to-day alert, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the
Brookings Institute, President of the Center for Defense Information]
A new concern has arisen about nuclear command and control: ….leaps of faith in an era of increasingly sophisticated
cyber-penetration.
They’ll hire experts

Fritz 9 [Jason, BS (St. Cloud), MIR (bond), The International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation, "Hacking
Nuclear Command and Control"]
Cyber terrorists may not ... Indian Mujahedeen (Rahman 2008, Denning 1999).
Launch on warning makes these attacks successful

Nuclear command and control has inherent weaknesses in …. lead to the introduction of fail-deadly and autonomous
systems.
Early warning systems aren’t airlocked—provides easy access

Cyber terrorists could cause incorrect ... be readily found on the internet.
Glitches exacerbate the potential for accidents

As historical experience …. of an incoming nuclear missile attack by the adversary.
These accidents quickly escalate into full-scale war

Morton Mintz, 2001 [former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter, The
American Prospect, Two Minutes to Launch, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch]
Hair-trigger alert means ... by checklist, by rote."
War games prove escalation

PR Newswire 4/29/98
An 'accidental' nuclear attack would ... to Forrow and his colleagues.
Modern weaponry coupled with Launch on Warning increases potential for escalation
An accidental launch of an ... exchange of massive nuclear strikes.
Rationality goes out the window after a perceived launch—quickly escalates
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Such instability causes a situation ... the early missile warning systems.
Launch on Warning guarantees extinction

Alan Phillips and Steven Starr, 2004 [Eliminate Launch on Warning, Phillips: Ph. D. with honours in physics at
As long as the United States and Russia retain their arsenals …. system to make it safer after one failure of that kind.
This is the most likely scenario for war

At the present time, ... that it hasn't happened already.
Accidental war is the most probable scenario for US-Russia nuclear war
FAS et al, Federation of American Scientists, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Union of Concerned Scientists,
2008
Toward True Security, http://www.fas.org/press/_docs/Toward%20True%20Security%202008%20.pdf
By revamping its deployment practices ... with its surviving nuclear weapons
Extinction
Metta Spencer 2005 [Emeritus Professor of sociology at the University of Toronto and Coordinator of Peace and
Conflict Studies, Instead of Launch on Warming… http://metta-spencer.blogspot.com/2005/12/instead-of-launching-on-
warming.html]
Compare the outcome of the two options…. I vote for RLOAD.
Solvency:
Abandoning Launch on Warning solves the risk of accidental warfare with Russia—maintains deterrence and potential
for retaliation
If Russia and the US were actually... that the change has been made.
Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation maintains retaliatory launch capabilities

Q7. Is "RLOAD easier to implement... Therefore deterrence is not significantly affected.
Russian posture is irrelevant—plan dramatically reduces chance of accidents

Army, An Introduction to No Launch on Warning, http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]
Q9: Why do you …risk on the Russian side may be greater.
Plan solves deterrence—maintains retaliatory capabilities

There can be few grounds ... started by accident or by intention.
Altering the Op Plan solves

NDRC, 2001 [National Resource Defense Council, Exposing the U.S. Nuclear War Plan,
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nwarplan.asp]
The war plan looms large ... of STRATCOM, General George Butler.
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Plan: The United States Strategic Command should amend Operations Plan 8010 to include a ‘Retaliatory Launch
Only After Detonation’ policy in the event of a suspected nuclear attack on the United States.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Same as Gonzaga
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Oklahoma Abbas/Defilippis (Dealert-RLOAD) [Logan]
Oklahoma AD - Aff
Kentucky 1AC
PLAN: The United States President should issue an executive order that requires the United States to not launch a
nuclear retaliatory strike without prior confirmation of detonation in the United States.
The United States maintains a system of ‘Launch on Warning’ which means the US will launch purely on detection
rather than an actual detonation.
Rosenbaum ’09 [Ron, spectator columnist for Slate Magazine and author of critically acclaimed books, Aug 21, “Will
the Pentagon Thwart Obama’s Dream of Zero?” http://www.slate.com/id/2225817/]
But Obama's got to make like a commander… de facto launch on warning.
The prospects for miscalculation are high – Russia is posturing and US systems are suspect. Weinberger ’09 [Caspar,
writer and lecturer that served in Reagan’s administrations, Aug 12, “The Russians are Coming, the Russians are
Coming, Yet Again,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=33101]
Are the Russians coming to… thought to a first strike.
And, the scrapping of missile defense only made matters worse. Varner ’09 [Bill, UN Reporter for Bloomberg, Sep 21,
“Obama Displays Cold War Mindset, Russian Envoy Says,” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601103&sid=aOCMsh7RomfE]
President Barack Obama’s explanation… of the decision in our eyes.”
These conditions exacerbate the potential for accidents – stress and short decision time make launch inevitable.
Arbatov et al ’01 [A.G., V.S. Belous, A.A. Pikaev, V.G. Baranovsky, Institute of International Economy and Foreign
Relations Russian Academy of Sciences, “De-alerting Russian and US nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear
dangers,” http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html]
Experts in the area… hand dramatically increases.
Glitches exacerbate the potential for accidents. Arbatov et al ’01 [A.G., V.S. Belous, A.A. Pikaev, V.G. Baranovsky,
Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations Russian Academy of Sciences, “De-alerting Russian and US
nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers,” http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html]
As historical experience demonstrates… nuclear missile attack by the adversary.
Accidents will quickly escalate into full-scale war ending in extinction. Mintz ’01 [Michael, former chair of the Fund for
Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter, Feb 26, “Two Minutes to Launch,”
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch]
Hair-trigger alert means… by checklist, by rote."
Modern weaponry guarantees escalation. Arbatov et al ’01 [A.G., V.S. Belous, A.A. Pikaev, V.G. Baranovsky, Institute
of International Economy and Foreign Relations Russian Academy of Sciences, “De-alerting Russian and US nuclear
weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers,” http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html]
An accidental launch… massive nuclear strikes.
And irrationality ensures this escalation is quick. Arbatov et al ’01 [A.G., V.S. Belous, A.A. Pikaev, V.G. Baranovsky,
Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations Russian Academy of Sciences, “De-alerting Russian and US
nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers,” http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html]
Such instability causes… alarms in the early missile warning systems.
Launch-on-warning ensures extinction – it makes accidental nuclear war inevitable. Phillips & Starr ’07 [Dr. Alan
(Physicist who did research for the British army during World War II) & Steven (Nuclear engineering expert and senior
scientist for social responsibility, international network of engineers and scientists against proliferation, Jan 8, “Change
Launch on Warning Policy,” http://www.worldfederalistscanada.org/rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan.pdf]
As long as the United States… it is inexcusably dangerous.
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And there is no ride-out option under Launch-on-Warning – any perceived strike will be responded to with nuclear
retaliation. Blair ’04 [Bruce, PhD and President of the CDI, Feb 16, “Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark,”
What is misleading about… for very long.
Accidental war is the most probable scenario for US-Russian nuclear war. FAS ’08 [Federation of American Scientists,
Natural Resources Defense Council, and Union of Concerned Scientists, Feb, “Toward True Security,”
http://www.fas.org/press/_docs/Toward%20True%20Security%202008%20.pdf]
By revamping its deployment practices… its surviving nuclear weapons.
Russian posture is irrelevant – the plan dramatically reduces the chance of accidents. Phillips ’03 [Dr. Alan, Physicist
who did research for the British army during World War II, “An Introduction to No Launch on Warning,”
http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]
Why do you say that reciprocity… Russian side may be greater.
The only plausible scenario for attack is based on false warning. Blair et al ’98 [Bruce, PhD and president of the World
Security Institute, Lachlan Forrow, M.D., Ira Helfand, M.D., George Lewis, Ph.D., Theodore Postol, Ph.D., Victor Sidel,
M.D., Barry S. Levy, M.D., Herbert Abrams, M.D., and Christine Cassel, M.D. , Apr 30, “Accidental Nuclear War — A
Post–Cold War Assessment,” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20625/acciden_nuke_war.pdf]
A particular danger stems… launch-on-warning protocols.
Inadvertent nuclear war is the most probable scenario for escalating nuclear conflict – mathematically, the
accumulation of small probabilities makes the concept of Launch-on-Warning more dangerous than a try at Russian
roulette. Phillips ’09 [Dr. Alan, Physicist who did research for the British army during World War II, “20 Mishaps that
might have started accidental nuclear war,” http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-
weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm]
Ever since the two adversaries… been less than 50:50.
And, each year the risk of miscalculation increases by 1-2% – there’s a 50% chance right now that a security event
could be misperceived and cause extinction. Phillips & Starr ’07 [Dr. Alan (Physicist who did research for the British
army during World War II) & Steven (Nuclear engineering expert and senior scientist for social responsibility,
international network of engineers and scientists against proliferation, Jan 8, “Change Launch on Warning Policy,”
http://www.worldfederalistscanada.org/rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan.pdf]
It is very dangerous to allow… civilization, by a mere accident.
Abandoning Launch-on-Warning solves the risk of accidental war with Russia. Phillips ’02 [Dr. Alan, Physicist who did
research for the British army during World War II, “No Launch on Warning,”
http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/WorkingPapers/wp021.html]
If Russia and the US were… change has been made.
RLOAD would be quick and easy to implement. Phillips ’03 [Dr. Alan, Physicist who did research for the British army
during World War II, “An Introduction to No Launch on Warning,” http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]
How easy would it be… done in way less than a year.
Hotlines can’t solve accidental launch. Phillips ’03 [Dr. Alan, Physicist who did research for the British army during
World War II, “An Introduction to No Launch on Warning,” http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]
They have the "hot line" to resolve… enemy confused.
Obama is pushing the CTBT in the Senate now. Kelly 9/21 [Lorelei, director of the New Strategic Security Initiative
project, “To Stop Nuclear Proliferation, Washington Must Lead by Example,”
http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2009/09/21/18622647.php]
On Sept. 24, the United Nations… votes for ratification difficult.
Obama already rejected the nuclear posture review because it didn’t include deep enough cuts – any disad is
inevitable. Borger 9/23 [Julian, Global Security Blog for Guardian, “Obama pledges radical cuts in nuclear arsenal,”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2009/sep/23/obama-nuclear-unitednations]
On Monday, The Guardian… ratified. These are strong words.
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Current U.S. nuclear policy is based on a concept called “Launch on Warning.” This means that the U.S. will retaliate
to a perceived enemy missile before that missile detonates on U.S. soil. Incontrovertible evidence points to the fact
that the military will dictate presidential decision-making in times of stress to rely on Launch on Warning. This
drastically increases the probability of an accidental nuclear war based on false alarms. Our early detection systems
are faulty, susceptible to malfunction and mistakes—we’re literally playing Russian roulette every day with the world.
Blair 4 [president of the World Security Institute, expert on U.S. and Russian security policies, specializing in nuclear
forces and command-control systems. Testified before Congress and has taught security studies as a visiting
professor at Yale and Princeton universities. Awarded a MacArthur Fellowship Prize for his work and leadership on de-
alerting nuclear forces. Dr. Blair earned a Ph.D. in operations research at Yale University in 1984. He received his B.S.
in communications from the University of Illinois in 1970.
Bruce G. Blair, Ph.D., CDI President, Feb 16, “Keeping Presidents in the Nuclear Dark, Episode #2: The SIOP Option
that Wasn’t”, http://www.cdi.org/blair/ launch-on-warning.cfm]
Presidents were innocent …. of the nuclear footballs beware.
Contention 2: Consequences are vast

Inadvertent nuclear war is the most probable scenario for escalating nuclear war. Mathematically, the accumulation of
small probabilities makes the concept of launch on warning more dangerous then a try at Russian roulette.
Philips, 2009 [Alan F, 20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War, http://www.nuclearfiles.org/
menu/key-issues/nuclear- weapons/issues/accidents/20- mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear- war.htm, NuclearFiles.org,
M.D.]
Ever since the … less than 50:50.
false alarms are frequent makes probabilities of accidental war exponentially explode. nuclear war has almost broken
out multiple times-- each year we delay the probability of human extinction increases by 1%. This year alone we have
a 1/3 probability of being wiped out by accident.
Phillips 2 [Alan F., “No Launch on Warning”, Dr. Alan Phillips graduated with honours in physics at Cambridge
University in 1941. He spent the rest of World War II doing radar research for the British Army. specialized in the
treatment of cancer by radiation. http://www.ploughshares.ca/ libraries/WorkingPapers/wp021. html]
To get an idea of how … pose a threat to Russia."20
This Launch on Warning policy makes accidental nuclear war inevitable – responsibility for unintended extinction
would rest solely on the feet of this policy.
Phillips and Starr 7 [Dr. Alan Phillips- physicist and physician who did radar research for the British army during World
War II. Steven Starr- Nuclear Engineering Expert, Senior Scientist, Physicians for Social Responsibility, International
Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP) and Physicians for Global Survival ,Jan 8, 2007,
“Change Launch On Warning Policy”, Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at MIPT,
http://www. worldfederalistscanada.org/ rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan. pdf]
As long as the United States …, and they are generally believed to be continuing their LoW policies. If this is the case,
it is inexcusably dangerous.
Here’s more risk calculus—each year the risk of miscalculation increases by 1-2%; there’s a 50% chance right now
that a security event could be misperceived and could cause human extinction
Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP) and Physicians for Global Survival
Jan 8, 2007, “Change Launch On Warning Policy”, Center for Arms Control,http://www. worldfederalistscanada.org/
rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan. pdf]
It is very dangerous …, by a mere accident.
It gets worse; not only can pure accident exploit L-o-W’s problems, one also has to factor in the possibility of
individuals or state-sponsored terrorists faking it on purpose—multiple declassified files proves it happens on a regular
basis. Continued hair-trigger alert will catalyze a global nuclear war that will destroy all life on Earth.
Starr 8 [Steven- Nuclear Engineering Expert, Senior Scientist, Physicians for Social Responsibility, International
Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP) and Physicians for Global Survival, Autumn 2008,
“High-alert nuclear weapons: the Forgotten Danger”, Scientists for Global Responsibility, http://www.nucleardarkness.
org/include/nucleardarkness/ files/high-alert_nuclear_ weapons_the_forgotten_danger. pdf ]
On January 24, 1995, …, global nuclear environmental treaty.
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Triggering our early warning systems intentionally is the new most likely form of cyber-nuclear-terrorism. The
combined possibility of intentional and unintentional triggering of our early warning systems makes the L-o-W policy
the most probable scenario for extinction in the status quo.
Mullison 2009 [August 27!, Kevin, Cyber Terrorists Trigger Nuclear Bombs?, Hackers Can Launch Early Warning ID
Networks, http://www.orato.com/world- affairs/cyber-terrorists- trigger-nuclear-bombs - Reporting on facts from ICNND]
Terrorist weapons …Barack Obama has said that, "America's computer systems will be a national security priority."
Contention Three: Why RLOAD?

RLOAD, or Retaliatory Launch ONLY after Detonation, can with one pen stroke immediately remove the danger of
accidental war because of early warning systems, intuitively, because we only retaliate after the REAL bomb blows up.
Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP) and Physicians for Global Survival, Jan 8, 2007,
Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation (RLOAD) … We believe he would be under great pressure to do so.4
Removing the Launch-on-Warning doctrine prevents miscalculation-- instantly eliminates 90% of current potential
nuclear wars between the U.S. and Russia that would occur due to false alarms. The actual political procedure it
outlined in this card.
Phillips 3 [February 3rd, “No Launch on Warning, by Alan F. Phillips, M.D.”, Dr. Alan Phillips graduated with honors in
physics at Cambridge University in 1941. He spent the rest of World War II doing radar research for the British Army.
After the war he qualified in medicine at Edinburgh University and specialized in the treatment of cancer by radiation.
He retired in 1984. His retirement activities have included the study of nuclear armaments and the risks of accidental
nuclear warhttp:www.web.net/~cnanw/ nolaunch.htm]
A very simple change can be mad…It does not depend on the other side knowing that the change has been made.
The plan uses an executive order, is instantly effective, done in secret, doesn’t decrease deterrence, and instantly
decreases the risk of nuclear miscalculation.
Phillips 3 [February 3rd, “No Launch on Warning, by Alan F. Phillips, M.D.”, Dr. Alan Phillips graduated with honors in
physics at Cambridge University in 1941. He spent the rest of World War II doing radar research for the British Army.
After the war he qualified in medicine at Edinburgh University and specialized in the treatment of cancer by radiation.
He retired in 1984. His retirement activities have included the study of nuclear armaments and the risks of accidental
nuclear warhttp:www.web.net/~cnanw/ nolaunch.htm]
Compared with real de-alerting that introduces a … weapons from their arsenals.
Replacing L-O-W doesn’t effect deterrence—first strike can’t disarm retaliatory capacity, EMP is ineffective against
military, and the other side doesn’t know about the plan because it is done in secret.
Phillips 2 [Alan F., “No Launch on Warning”, Dr. Alan Phillips graduated with honours in physics at Cambridge
University in 1941. He spent the rest of World War II doing radar research for the British Army. After the war he
qualified in medicine at Edinburgh University and specialized in the treatment of cancer by radiation. He retired in
1984. His retirement activities have included the study of nuclear armaments and the risks of accidental nuclear
war,http://www.ploughshares.ca/ libraries/WorkingPapers/wp021. html]
There can be few grounds for objection…whether started by accident or by intention.
RLOAD reduces the probability of a nuclear accident

Phillips and Starr 7, Dr. Alan Phillips- physicist and physician who did radar research for the British army during World
“Change Launch On Warning Policy”, Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at MIPT,http://www.
worldfederalistscanada.org/ rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan. pdf]
De-alerting compared with RLOAD… detonation had been detected; and there would be no launch.
Finally, RLOAD doesn’t require multilateral verification—a unilateral decision can be done in secrecy so that other
countries don’t perceive U.S. weakness. The action would cut the risk of accidental launch in half, implementation
would be instantaneous, and, again, would not effect deterrence.
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RLOAD does not need verification. … and there would be no launch
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Samford Bagwell/Gramzinski (Dealert) [Logan]
Team Name: Samford BG
Re-Alert DA 2AC
Durable Fiat solves
We solve the impact – we also get rid of LOW
Realert is a risk in the squo – plan solves crisis instability

Blair 7
http://www.nuclearsecurityproject.org/atf/cf/%7B1FCE2821-C31C-4560-BEC1-
BB4BB58B54D9%7D/DRELL_GOODBY_REYKJAVIK2_REV0D.PDF
“De-alerting could also strengthen crisis””can be designed to alleviate this danger”
Squo is worse – no checks or assurance of a real threat – means it’s more likely we will misinterpret
We just extend the timeframe – launching a missile o/w's re-alerting – we don’t re-alert the whole arsenal
Deterrence DA 2AC
Rapid response not key to deterrence

Buchan et al 3
“the effect of a delay in a U.S.””based on a threat of nuclear retaliation”
De-alerting doesn’t affect deterrence, and US deterrence isn’t credible anyway

Steinbruner 9
“Reframing De-Alert”
“First, the magnitude of threat””defy global opinion indefinitely”
De-alerting key to conceptualize new forms of deterrence

Blair 8
“De-alerting even at the initial phase””conception of national and international security”
Alert posture is counterproductive and increases prolif

Daalder and Lodal 8
“The Logic of Zero”
“Now, nearly two decades after the end””with the changed threats it now confronts”
Politics 2AC
No perception of ICBM changes
Clay 9
“I want to thank the conference””this suddenly unfashionable subject”
Congress doesn’t care about the plan

Kristensen and Woolf 7
Perm do plan and cap and trade
No spillover
Normal means is Dems vote for the plan, and Obama would distance himself
Bottom of the docket
Obama is Teflon
Feldmann 9
“If the public, and their elected””A contract is a contract”
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Obama is Teflon
The Age 9
“Despite America’s struggling economy””or more capital in the bank”
Winners Win
Singer 9 – Jonathan, Berkeley law, My Direct Democracy editor
[Mar 3, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428]
Round # Doubles KY
vs Team: Wake MS
Judge: Perkins, Lee, Harris
Plan Text
Asteroids – on wiki
1ac w/ cites
Full text on wiki
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons
For AT: Topicality see Iowa
1AR Strategy Notes
2AR Strategy Notes
Asteroids Aff - Doubles Kentucky
Samford also read an impact calculus contention that included no war (Mandelbaum), Deterrence checks conflict
(Waltz type card from Boston Globe) and nuke war doesn't cause extinction.
The odds of an asteroid strike on earth are high now:

Gregg Easterbrook, 2008 (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/asteroids)
Breakthrough ideas have a way....harvests in 536 and 537.
There’s a high risk and the terminal impact is extinction—previous assumptions that the risk of being hit by a space
rock is low are just plain wrong—and if we get hit it could literally end life on the planet:
Gregg Easterbrook, 2008 (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/asteroids)
These standard assumptions—that remaining..... which may need a new name.
We’re overdue for our next big asteroid hit—the impact is billions of deaths:
A. Ghayur, 5/3/2007 (Lecturer, University Institute of Information Technology,
http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/2007papers/P5-1--Ghayur--Paper.pdf)
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I. Introduction 694 was the year ....displacement of billions, if not more.
Unlike their speculative disad impacts, it is statistically inevitable that Earth will be struck by asteroids and comets:
Clark R. Chapman, 2004 (Southwest Research Institute, March 4, 2004,
http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/Chapman_hazard_EPSL.pdf.)
Even after discovery of the Chicxulub impact structure in Mexico and its temporal simultaneity with the Cretaceous–
Tertiary (K–T) boundary and mass extinctions [18], it has taken some earth ..... consequences every time.
Kilometer wide asteroids could create a nuclear winter—causing extinction:

Tom Blackwell, 8/29/2002 (National Post, Lexis)
Asteroids a kilometre-wide could .... planet, said Mr. Balam.
Our case massively outweighs any disad: A single asteroid collision is capable of doing more damage than all nuclear
weapons in existence combined…
LIEUTENANT COLONEL JOHN C. KUNICH, 1997 (Staff Judge Advocate, 50th Space Wing, Falcon Air Force Base,
Colorado, Air Force Law Review, 41 A.F. L. Rev. 119; Lexis)
If you were standing on......approximately 9 million megatons of TNT. n4
And…Extinction is categorically different from any other impact—even if they win a nuclear war kills 99 percent of the
population, an asteroid strike still outweighs by an order of magnitude:
Jason G. Matheny, 2007 (Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health,
http://jgmatheny.org/matheny_extinction_risk.htm)
Even if extinction events are improbable, the .....threaten 99% of humanity and those that threaten 100%.
It is beyond dispute that the Earth will be hit again—this risks human extinction and mass species extinction:
LIEUTENANT COLONEL JOHN C. KUNICH, 1997 (Staff Judge Advocate, 50th Space Wing, Falcon Air Force Base,
Colorado, Air Force Law Review, 41 A.F. L. Rev. 119; Lexis)
Irrespective of the ultimate resolution ...... bodies with the Earth on long time scales.
Species extinction risks human extinction:

California Academy of Sciences, last modified 8/21/2004 (http://www.calacademy.org/research/library/biodiv.htm)
Currently, more than 10,000 .....associated with that life form.
And, a hit on the ocean is no safer: It would devastate world ecosystems:

JUSTIN L. KOPLOW, 2005 (J.D., Georgetown University Law Center, Georgetown International Environmental Law
Review, Winter 2005, 17 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 273; Lexis)
Yet, more likely, as the Earth ....... with catastrophic loss of life. n16
Even a small asteroid strike would cause worldwide famine:

Thomas D. Jones, 2008 (Aerospace America, October,
http://www.aiaa.org/aerospace/images/articleimages/pdf/View%20from%20Here1.pdf)
Of course, Earth’s long history ..... and worldwide famine.
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Abrupt agricultural shortfalls trigger worldwide conflict:

William Calvin, 1991 Whole Earth Review, 12/22/91; LEXIS
But non-Europeans are ......while others starve").
Even small asteroids could decimate the ozone layer:

Ivan Bekey, 2009 (Dealing with the THREAT TO EARTH From ASTEROIDS and COMETS, International Academy of
Astronautics, http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission
%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf)
There has also been ..... Team (SDT) (See ref.22).
Ozone depletion threatens human survival:

Turco, 2003 (http://www.ioe.ucla.edu/academic/M1BReadings/Ozone%20Handout-03doc.pdf)
Ozone is singled out as ...... on this planet.
The US has obligated itself to take the lead in NEO defense—superiority of US nuclear weapons policy, space policy,
and customs governing missile defense mean the world will pressure to the US to deflect
JUSTIN L. KOPLOW, 2005 (J.D., Georgetown University Law Center, Georgetown International Environmental Law
Review, Winter 2005, 17 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 273; Lexis)
The fundamental procedures of intercepting..... opportunities for self-defense and protection.
NASA is committing the US to a nuclear-only deflection system:

Clark R. Chapman, 2007 (Senior Scientist, Southwest Research Institute Dept. of Space Studies, Critique of "2006
Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report", http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-
CritChap.doc)
Furthermore, the Report takes ..... middle paragraph of pg. 61.].)
The nuclear option will fail, but the public will demand nuclear weapons unless we reduce their role:
Russell L. Schweickart, 2004 (Chair, B612 Foundation, “Asteroid Deflection; Hopes and Fears,”
www.b612foundation.org/papers/Asteroid_Deflection.doc)
The nuclear explosive options ....., can reliably be used.
The problem is…nukes won’t work…Multiple uncertainties make nuclear weapons a bad option to deflect asteroids:
In both these cases the characteristics.....the nuclear options.
Nuclear deflection will fail—the warheads will explode on earth:

Ivan Bekey, 2009 (Dealing with the THREAT TO EARTH From ASTEROIDS and COMETS, International Academy of
Astronautics, http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission
%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf)
There is a persistent notion in ......not essentially ruled out.
Even worse, we won’t just nuke asteroids that will guaranteed hit the earth: fear and the necessary lead time will cause
us to execute an asteroid deflection campaign before we are certain an impact will occur—we will face such a decision
once every ten years--
Thomas D. Jones, 2008 (Aerospace America, October,
http://www.aiaa.org/aerospace/images/articleimages/pdf/View%20from%20Here1.pdf)
Of the several thousand PHAs ...... every 10 years.
Using a nuclear weapon fragments the asteroid: increasing the overall threat:
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The hard options consist of various .... of the asteroid in question.
Plan:
The United States federal government should require that its nuclear explosive devices may be used only as a means
of last resort for Near Earth Object deflection. Questions, please ask.
Observation 3: We have the technology…

Nuclear weapons should be considered a means of last resort—98% of asteroids can be deflected with non-nuclear
means:
Larry Klaes, 3/21/2007 (staff writer, http://seti.sentry.net/archive/bioastro/2007/Mar/0159.html)
In contrast, Schweickart argues ..... is obviously the way to go," he said.
Current emphasis on nuclear deflection siphons resources from alternatives—reducing the role of nuclear weapons
forces NASA to turn to slow push techniques
Boyle, 2007 (Alan Boyle, March 21, winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society
Award, member of the board of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing, and staff writer for
MSNBC.com,“Dueling Over Asteroids,” http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/03/21/97410.aspx)
That's why he's taking the new report ..... is that NASA ought to be doing that research. "
Nuclear weapon deflection fails—softer forms of deflection are superior:

Henry Fountain, 11/19/2002 (staff writer, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/science/space/19ASTE.html)
But it is becoming clear ..... a hit into a close call.
Key capabilities to deflect asteroids are already in the pipeline:

Rusty Schweickart, 2004 (April 7, Chairman of the Board, B612 Foundation,
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12482)
Mounting a mission to assure the public .....a matter of policy.
U.S. leadership is essential to effective planetary defense:

Taylor Dinerman, 7/20/2009 (staff writer, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1418/1)
Yet in the end, it is likely that ..... setting the stage for a disaster.
Gravity tractor solves

Stone 2008 (Richard, editor for Science Magazine, National Geographic, “Target Earth,” 8-1, lexis,
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2008/08/earth-scars/stone-text)
Then he and Stanley Love,..... of thousands of miles.
Solar sails will solve:

Canadian Dave Balam, one of the ..... that could do the same thing.
Space mirrors solve

Engineer 2007 (The Engineer, The Big Picture: Mirrored Army to Protect Earth, 10-15, lexis,
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/Articles/302586/Satellite+saviours.htm)
A fleet of satellites carrying ..... our launch capabilities.’
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Direct push can deflect an asteroid:

Finally there is the concept ...... should be the B612 mission to a near Earth asteroid.
Air pillows will solve:

Hollywood dispatched Bruce Willis .....comet out of Earth's path and prevent mass death and destruction.
Color changing solves:

Henry Fountain, 11/19/2002 (staff writer, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/science/space/19ASTE.html)
Perhaps the most intriguing idea ....., one photon at a time.
Space Tugs solve:

Clark R. Chapman, 2007 (Senior Scientist, Southwest Research Institute Dept. of Space Studies, Critique of "2006
Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report", http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-
CritChap.doc)
* Pg. 82, Table 25. This contains yet more ..... in this table are wrong.
GSU Aff Disclosure
Observation 1- The Status Quo
The US has thousands of alert nukes both at home and abroad- they could put us on the fast track to extinction in
minutes
Mohling ’09 [Judith, May 14, staff writer for The Colorado Daily, “Peace Train: We must disarm”
http://www.coloradodaily.com/news/2009/may/14/we-must-disarm/]
President Barack Obama is… very meaning of civilization."
We’ve been very lucky so far- every day runs the risk of accidental exinction
Crandell ’09 [Steven, Director of Development & Public Affairs for the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, July 13, “Start a
Revolution With A Video -- A 17 Year-Old Wins National Competition” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-
crandell/start-a-revolution-with-a_b_247941.html]
Nuclear weapons proponents…suffer a nuclear winter).
Thus we offer the following plan: The United States federal government should revise U.S. strategic plans to eliminate
launch on warning from available response options for its nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles and isolate
silos from external launch control for its nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles. Questions, ask.
Observation 2 is Solvency
Removing “launch on warning” and launch control isolation solves accidental war and cyberterrorism while avoiding
politics and sparking Russian reciprocity
Rosenbaum ’08 [Ron, The Spectator columnist, May 9, “A Real Nuclear Option for the Nominees: Averting
"inadvertent" war in two easy steps.” http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/all/]
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In a footnote, Blair cites …leave us vulnerable to now.
Unilateral de-alerting would be seen as an incentive for Russian reciprocity
Podvig ’04 [Pavel, SAC Research Associate and Acting Associate Director for Research at Stanford University, Nov. 1,
“Reducing the Risk of Accidental Launch: A Case for Unilateral Action”
http://cisac.stanford.edu/news/reducing_the_risk_of_accidental_launch_a_case_for_unilateral_action_20050908/]
The dangers of this…for Russia to reciprocate.
And, even if we only solve for the US, we’re the most dangerous- overconfidence makes us overlook system errors
The United States, on the other hand,…regardless of reciprocity.
And, a consensus of strategic thinkers think that alert status doesn’t affect US deterrent strategy
Blair ’08 [Bruce, President of the World Security Institute and former Minuteman launch officer, February 27,
An emerging consensus…use of a nuclear weapon.”
Conventional weapons solve all their deterrence arguments
Daley and Martin, 6-26-2009. Tad and Kevin, “North Korea, Iran, and the Demise of Nuclear Deterrence.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tad-daley/north-korea-iran-and-the_b_221243.html
When one includes such things as …alone can fully do the job.
Advantage 1 is Terrorism-
Cyber attacks are on the rise and the US isn’t prepared for a strong attack- North Korea proves
Baldor ’09 [Lolita, writer for the Associated Press, July 9, “US officials eye North Korea in cyber attack”
http://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/1225ad4269dbdc34]
U.S. authorities on …in South Korea.
Our alert systems are extremely susceptible to cyber-terrorism - hijacking, viruses and hackers can trigger the entire
arsenal
Beyond the familiar … signals carries real risk.
Cyber-terrorism causes nuclear war

Stephen Cimbala, professor of political science at the Pennsylvania State University Delaware County Campus,
Summer 1999, Armed Forces & Society: An Interdisciplinary Journal
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The nuclear shadow … unfortunate byproducts.
And, alert nukes makes terrorist interception inevitable- only de-alerting solves terrorist access to our entire arsenal
Blair ’04 [Bruce, president of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information and a former Minuteman launch
officer, Sept. 19, “The Wrong Deterrence: The Threat of Loose Nukes is One of Our Own Making”
http://www.nuclearfreenz.org.nz/bruceblair.htm]
Even the U.S. nuclear …ourselves against the real threats.
That causes extinction
Sid Ahmed 2004. (Mohammed. Extinction! http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
What would be the consequences…we will all be losers.
Advantage 2 is Accidental War
Alert nuclear weapons make accidents inevitable- even the best control systems can’t stop an accidental launch
Sidhu ’08 [Waheguru, MacArthur Fellow at Oxford, St. Antony's College, “De-alert Nuclear Weapons,
http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/nwc/mon1sidhu.html]
The Berlin Wall was…as soon as possible.
Human error is especially likely
Blair ’08 [Bruce, President of the World Security Institute and former Minuteman launch officer, “Taking Nuclear Forces
Off Day-to-Day Alert” http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-nuclear-forces-day-day-alert]
This launch-ready posture… the executing forces.
Maintaining ICBMs on high alert makes accidental nuclear war with Russia inevitable
Phillips and Starr ’06 [“Change ‘Launch on Warning’ Policy”, Alan Phillips is a retired physicist and physician who did
radar research for the British army. Steven Starr is a medical technologist trained in nuclear engineering.
http://archive.peacemagazine.org/v22n3p14.htm]
As long as the United States …is inexcusably dangerous.
US-Russian nuclear war outweighs all other nuclear conflicts
radar research for the British army. Steven Starr is a medical technologist trained in nuclear engineering. ]
We address only … flight times involved.
Our nuclear war outweighs– war with Russia is the only scenario that ensures planetary extinction.
Caldicott 2k2 [(Helen- Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)]
If launched from Russia… annihilation of the planet.
Try or die for the aff- it only takes one accidental launch to end civilization
The disaster of an …failure of that kind.
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Even a slight risk of our impacts cumulate every year- we’re playing Russian roulette
Phillips and Starr ’04 [“Eliminate Launch on Warning”, Alan Phillips is a retired physicist and physician who did radar
research for the British army. Steven Starr is a medical technologist trained in nuclear engineering.
It is very …at Russian roulette (7).
Current systems are faulty- recent slip-ups prove that the US arsenal is still highly susceptible to accidents
Even with the decades … nation’s ICBM force.”
Safeguards don’t solve any of the advantages- modern systems are more at risk than ever
LCNP ‘07 (“A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on the Alert Status of U.S. Nuclear Forces,” Bruce G. Blair (President of
the World Security Institute), October 13, http://lcnp.org/disarmament/opstatus-blair.htm)
De-alerting would increase …imprudent in the extreme.
Advantage 3 is Miscalculation
Short response time makes miscalculation and nuclear annihilation inevitable
Rosenbaum ’08 [Ron, The Spectator columnist, May 9, “The Return of the Doomsday Machine?”
http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/#page_start]
What are the United States' and …unhappy end of history.
And, it would only take minutes to unleash our nuclear weapons
If the Kremlin and the White House ordered… launch order from higher authority.
Nuclear containment would be impossible after a first strike
McNamara ’05 [Robert, May/June, “Apocalypse Soon” Robert S. McNamara was U.S. secretary of defense from 1961
to 1968 and president of the World Bank from 1968 to 1981, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?
story_id=2829]
There is no way to effectively…other nations and to our own.
It’s easier to prematurely launch alert nukes than to withhold them
Blair ’04 [Bruce, President of the World Security Institute and former Minuteman launch officer, “Keeping Presidents in
the Nuclear Dark” http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm]
What is misleading about the … has been kept from the presidents intentionally.
Observation 4 is the Underview:
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All their disads are empirically denied: The US has cuts its nuclear forces by 50% over the last 15 years—more cuts
are on the way:
U.S. Defense and Energy Departments, 2008
(National Security and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century, September, http:
www.defenselink.mil/news/nuclearweaponspolicy.pdf)
While maintaining these security commitments…replacement components as needed.
Obama and Medvedev have agreed to cut the arsenal by a third in the status quo:
Guy Faulconbridge, 7/6/2009 (staff writer,
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ARMS+HAGGLING/1764423/story.html)
MOSCOW - U.S. President Barack Obama … the friction of recent years.
Any perception disad is non-unique: nuclear disarmament is already a priority for Obama:
Jonathan Tepperman, 8/29/2009 (staff writer, Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/id/214248)
On Sept. 24, President Barack Obama…key parts of this campaign.
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Samford Cloninger/Elliott (Dealert) [Logan]
Observation 1- The Status Quo
The US has thousands of alert nukes both at home and abroad- they could put us on the fast track to extinction in
minutes
Mohling ’09 [Judith, May 14, staff writer for The Colorado Daily, “Peace Train: We must disarm”
http://www.coloradodaily.com/news/2009/may/14/we-must-disarm/]
President Barack Obama is… very meaning of civilization."
We’ve been very lucky so far- every day runs the risk of accidental exinction
Crandell ’09 [Steven, Director of Development & Public Affairs for the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, July 13, “Start a
Revolution With A Video -- A 17 Year-Old Wins National Competition” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-
crandell/start-a-revolution-with-a_b_247941.html]
Nuclear weapons proponents…suffer a nuclear winter).
Thus we offer the following plan: The United States federal government should revise U.S. strategic plans to eliminate
launch on warning from available response options for its nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles and isolate
silos from external launch control for its nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles. Questions, ask.
Removing “launch on warning” and launch control isolation solves accidental war and cyberterrorism while avoiding
politics and sparking Russian reciprocity
Rosenbaum ’08 [Ron, The Spectator columnist, May 9, “A Real Nuclear Option for the Nominees: Averting
"inadvertent" war in two easy steps.” http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/all/]
In a footnote, Blair cites …leave us vulnerable to now.
Unilateral de-alerting would be seen as an incentive for Russian reciprocity
The dangers of this…for Russia to reciprocate.
And, even if we only solve for the US, we’re the most dangerous- overconfidence makes us overlook system errors
The United States, on the other hand,…regardless of reciprocity.
And, a consensus of strategic thinkers think that alert status doesn’t affect US deterrent strategy
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An emerging consensus…use of a nuclear weapon.”
Conventional weapons solve all their deterrence arguments
Daley and Martin, 6-26-2009. Tad and Kevin, “North Korea, Iran, and the Demise of Nuclear Deterrence.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tad-daley/north-korea-iran-and-the_b_221243.html
When one includes such things as …alone can fully do the job.
Advantage 1 is Terrorism-
Cyber attacks are on the rise and the US isn’t prepared for a strong attack- North Korea proves
Baldor ’09 [Lolita, writer for the Associated Press, July 9, “US officials eye North Korea in cyber attack”
http://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/1225ad4269dbdc34]
U.S. authorities on …in South Korea.
Our alert systems are extremely susceptible to cyber-terrorism - hijacking, viruses and hackers can trigger the entire
arsenal
Beyond the familiar … signals carries real risk.
Cyber-terrorism causes nuclear war

Stephen Cimbala, professor of political science at the Pennsylvania State University Delaware County Campus,
Summer 1999, Armed Forces & Society: An Interdisciplinary Journal
The nuclear shadow … unfortunate byproducts.
And, alert nukes makes terrorist interception inevitable- only de-alerting solves terrorist access to our entire arsenal
Blair ’04 [Bruce, president of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information and a former Minuteman launch
officer, Sept. 19, “The Wrong Deterrence: The Threat of Loose Nukes is One of Our Own Making”
http://www.nuclearfreenz.org.nz/bruceblair.htm]
Even the U.S. nuclear …ourselves against the real threats.
Sid Ahmed 2004. (Mohammed. Extinction! http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
What would be the consequences…we will all be losers.
Advantage 2 is Accidental War
Alert nuclear weapons make accidents inevitable- even the best control systems can’t stop an accidental launch
Sidhu ’08 [Waheguru, MacArthur Fellow at Oxford, St. Antony's College, “De-alert Nuclear Weapons,
http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/nwc/mon1sidhu.html]
The Berlin Wall was…as soon as possible.
Human error is especially likely
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This launch-ready posture… the executing forces.
Maintaining ICBMs on high alert makes accidental nuclear war with Russia inevitable
As long as the United States …is inexcusably dangerous.
US-Russian nuclear war outweighs all other nuclear conflicts
radar research for the British army. Steven Starr is a medical technologist trained in nuclear engineering. ]
We address only … flight times involved.
Our nuclear war outweighs– war with Russia is the only scenario that ensures planetary extinction.
Caldicott 2k2 [(Helen- Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)]
If launched from Russia… annihilation of the planet.
Try or die for the aff- it only takes one accidental launch to end civilization
The disaster of an …failure of that kind.
Even a slight risk of our impacts cumulate every year- we’re playing Russian roulette
Phillips and Starr ’04 [“Eliminate Launch on Warning”, Alan Phillips is a retired physicist and physician who did radar
It is very …at Russian roulette (7).
Current systems are faulty- recent slip-ups prove that the US arsenal is still highly susceptible to accidents
Even with the decades … nation’s ICBM force.”
Safeguards don’t solve any of the advantages- modern systems are more at risk than ever
LCNP ‘07 (“A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on the Alert Status of U.S. Nuclear Forces,” Bruce G. Blair (President of
the World Security Institute), October 13, http://lcnp.org/disarmament/opstatus-blair.htm)
De-alerting would increase …imprudent in the extreme.
Advantage 3 is Miscalculation
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Short response time makes miscalculation and nuclear annihilation inevitable
Rosenbaum ’08 [Ron, The Spectator columnist, May 9, “The Return of the Doomsday Machine?”
http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/#page_start]
What are the United States' and …unhappy end of history.
And, it would only take minutes to unleash our nuclear weapons
If the Kremlin and the White House ordered… launch order from higher authority.
Nuclear containment would be impossible after a first strike
McNamara ’05 [Robert, May/June, “Apocalypse Soon” Robert S. McNamara was U.S. secretary of defense from 1961
to 1968 and president of the World Bank from 1968 to 1981, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?
story_id=2829]
There is no way to effectively…other nations and to our own.
It’s easier to prematurely launch alert nukes than to withhold them
Blair ’04 [Bruce, President of the World Security Institute and former Minuteman launch officer, “Keeping Presidents in
the Nuclear Dark” http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm]
What is misleading about the … has been kept from the presidents intentionally.
Observation 4 is the Underview:
All their disads are empirically denied: The US has cuts its nuclear forces by 50% over the last 15 years—more cuts
are on the way:
U.S. Defense and Energy Departments, 2008
(National Security and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century, September, http:
www.defenselink.mil/news/nuclearweaponspolicy.pdf)
While maintaining these security commitments…replacement components as needed.
Obama and Medvedev have agreed to cut the arsenal by a third in the status quo:
Guy Faulconbridge, 7/6/2009 (staff writer,
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ARMS+HAGGLING/1764423/story.html)
MOSCOW - U.S. President Barack Obama … the friction of recent years.
Any perception disad is non-unique: nuclear disarmament is already a priority for Obama:
Jonathan Tepperman, 8/29/2009 (staff writer, Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/id/214248)
On Sept. 24, President Barack Obama…key parts of this campaign.
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Vanderbilt Abrams/Waller (Dealert) [Logan]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention 1 is Inherency:
The U.S. currently maintains a policy of Launch on Warning, or LoW, which has the U.S. launch its nuclear weapons
upon detection of an incoming attack rather than waiting for actual detonation
Rosenbaum 9 – Ron, author and journalist
[Aug 21, LEXIS]cn
But Obama's got to make like a commander in chief if he wants … Both locks can be opened in minutes.
Contention 2 is Miscalc:
LoW poses the biggest threat of accidental nuclear war – compounding risk factors make accidents impossible to
prevent
Phillips & Starr 4 – Alan, M.D., Cambridge physicist, radar researcher during WW2 , and Steven, nuclear engineer,
medical technologist
[May/Jun, “Let’s go No-LOW,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol 60: No 3]cn
As long as the United States and Russia retain their arsenals of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles… to
provide redundancy—it may amplify mistakes.
LoW makes prudent decisionmaking impossible – short timeframes and pre-scripted launch scenarios make accidental
nuclear war extremely likely
Blair 4 – Bruce, Ph.D., President of the Center for Defense Information and former U.S. Air Force nuclear launch
officer
[Feb 16, http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm]cn
One of the most rarefied experiences of a newly installed president is his receiving of the “nuclear football” …that U.S.
missiles did not remain sitting ducks for very long.
False alarms will trigger full-scale nuclear war with Russia – the impact is extinction
Caldicott 2 – Helen, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility
[The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12]pr
If launched from Russia, nuclear weapons would explode over American cities thirty minutes after takeoff. …became
even more significant after the September 11 attack.
Russia will retaliate – semi-automatic Perimeter system ensures it
Roth 6 – George Simmons, author
[“A Simple Solution for Accidental Nuclear War”]cn
Finally, and most dangerous of all, the Russians…in turn, would automatically launch their ICBMs.
Even a small accident obliterates deterrence and makes the Earth uninhabitable
Starr 8 – Steven, M.D., educator and consultant on nuclear weapons issues
[http://www.ipacademy.org/asset/file/395/starr.pdf]cn
What if deterrence fails? �Deterrence requires rational behavior and rational … then isn’t nuclear war a form of global
suicide?
Multiple examples prove serious mishaps are inevitable and increasingly probable
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Phillips 3 – Alan, M.D., Cambridge physicist, radar researcher for the British during WW2
[Jun, http://www.web.net/~cnanw/nolowinterview.htm]cn
There have been many mistakes in the operation of nuclear deterrence … it was not going to land in Russia. They still
didn't know it wasn't a nuclear bomb.
The past is not predictive – close calls prove the risk of accidental war is high
Sagan 93 – Scott Douglas, professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security
and Cooperation
[“The limits of safety: Organizations, accidents, and nuclear weapons” pp. 11-12]cn
One possibility is to assume that this central fact proves that the danger of nuclear weapons accidents and …may not
inspire extreme confidence.
LoW makes the U.S. particularly susceptible to deliberate cyber attacks on early warning systems
PNA 9 – Project for Nuclear Awareness
[Acc. Aug 14, http://www.nucleardarkness.org/highalert/nuclearwarcausedbyterrorism/]cn
As long as the US and Russia maintain LoW capability … nuclear strike based on a terrorist-generated false warning
when in fact no attack had occurred.
It’s try or die for the aff – failure to change LoW guarantees extinction
Spencer 5 – Metta, Professor of Sociology at the University of Toronto
[Dec 31, http://metta-spencer.blogspot.com/2005_12_01_archive.html]cn
The problem with “launch-on-warning” is that … is as courageous and independent as Colonel Petrov.
Accidents are the most probable nuclear escalation scenario
At the present time, I think an accidental war is far more …seems rather a miracle that it hasn't happened already.
No alt causes – LoW creates the only scenario for an accidental nuke war
Podvig 6 – Pavel, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University
[“Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch,” Science and Global Security, http://iis-
db.stanford.edu/pubs/21283/14_2-3__Podvig.pdf]cn
There are several scenarios that can lead to an … between these events and the actions that would be taken in
response to the attack warning.13
Unilateral abandonment of LoW solves accidents
I can't answer that question directly, but there are a lot of things that bear on … that it would be halved because the
risk on the Russian side may be greater.
A policy of Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation, or RLOAD, solves accidental nuclear war
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[Jan 8, http://www.worldfederalistscanada.org/rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan.pdf]cn
Replacing LoW with RLOAD would require, in the American system, … revert to peacetime readiness.
Contention 3 is Russia:
U.S. LoW posture causes Russia to maintain a highly mobile and vulnerable nuclear posture – this makes terrorist
acquisition and use of a nuclear weapon inevitable
officer
[Jan/Feb, http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/policy/russian-nuclear-
policy/PDFs/Primed%20and%20Ready.pdf]cn
It is surprising to many people that so much firepower, representing such an apocalyptic threat… weapon remains
under terrorist control.
It’s try or die – terrorists have the means and motivation to steal and use a Russian nuke
Allison 7 – Graham, Director of the Center for Science and International Affairs and Professor of Government at
Harvard
[Nov/Dec, LEXIS]cn
Mueller is entitled to his opinion that the threat of nuclear proliferation …could hide it in a bale of marijuana.
Deterrence won’t prevent nuclear terrorism – 3 reasons
Chyba & Crouch 9 – Christopher, professor of astrophysics and international affairs at Princeton University, and J.D.,
former deputy national security advisor
[Jul, http://www.twq.com/09july/docs/09jul_ChybaCrouch.pdf]cn
There is broad agreement that at least some terrorist groups … nuclear deterrence with respect to certain ‘‘rogue’’
regimes.7
The public would demand a response to the attack – the U.S. would target the Muslim world, escalating to extinction
Corsi 5 – Jerome, Ph.D. from Harvard, best-selling author
[Apr 20, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=43817]cn
In the span of less than one hour, the nation's largest city will have been virtually wiped off the … while the country
was still capable of exacting revenge.
This is true even if the attack fails
Sid-Ahmed 4 – Mohamed, Al-Ahram senior columnist
[Extinction! Issue No. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]cn
What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by …whole planet, we will all be losers.
Terrorist use of a nuclear weapon triggers global nuclear war, despite the location
Moore 7 – Carol, author, activist, leader of Libertarians for Peace
[Sept 5, http://www.carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/alternatescenarios.html#scenario6]cn
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Terrorists or some unknown nation … attack each other, to destroy nuclear and military capabilities.
Getting rid of U.S. LoW policies causes Russian modeling – it eliminates the need for a first strike posture and the
focus on speedy counterforce strikes
Karas 1 – Thomas, Advanced Concepts Group, Sandia National Laboratories
[Apr, http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/labs/de_alt_act_tnw.pdf]cn
As noted in Box 1, current U.S. declaratory policy is to … be stronger political incentives to ride out an enemy first
strike.)
The plan removes the incentive for massive Russian transportation, which eliminates the threat of theft
officer
[Sept 19, http://www.cdi.org/blair/loose-nukes.cfm]cn
On any given day, many hundreds of Russian nuclear weapons are moving around the … a few keystrokes on a
launch console.
Contention 4 is India/Pakistan:
India and Pakistan model U.S. LoW posture, developing early warning systems and high-alert forces
Mian et al 2 – Zia, Pakistani physicist; R. Rajaraman, professor of physics at Jawaharlal Nehru University; Frank von
Hippel, professor of public and international affairs at Princeton
[Aug 2, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/437]cn
The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying … of sending them forward in a threatening
manner--as it does today.
We are on the brink – India is close to adopting LoW
NRDC 7 – National Resources Defense Council
[July/Aug, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “India’s nuclear forces”]nb
As India’s nuclear capabilities and ambitions continue to … of alert and launch,” according to the MOD.5
Declaration of LoW in South Asia will trigger preemptive nuclear strikes
Beres 98 – Louis, Professor at Purdue
[American University International Law Review, LEXIS]cn
Indian and Pakistani inclinations to launch preemptive … attacks against each state's own armaments and population
centers. 27
Indo-Pak nuclear exchange escalates into global nuclear war
India-Pakistan nuclear exchange escalates to … initiates revenge attacks against Arab and Muslim capitols.
Even a limited nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would trigger planetary extinction
Greaney 7 – T.J., writer for the Columbia Daily Tribune
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[Nov 7, LEXIS]cn
Starr further explained that a "small, regional" nuclear war those … down to it, we have to start looking at ourselves as
a species."
Independently, accidents and proximity ensure Indo-Pak acquisition of early warning capabilities will trigger nuclear
war
Ramana 2 – M.V., Ph.D., physicist, Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies in Environment and Development
[Nov 7, http://www.geocities.com/m_v_ramana/nucleararticles/earlywarning_accidents.htm]cn
General Worden’s statement was probably wrong on … that can be launched at short notice.
Nuclear accidents are extremely probable for India and Pakistan – no matter the scenario, the impact will be full-scale
nuclear war
Hoodbhoy 98 – Pervez, Ph.D., Professor of Nuclear Physics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
[Dec 8, http://www.chowk.com/articles/4419]cn
Are these fictional, exaggerated, fears? I wish it …post-nuclear age is an act of supreme folly.
The plan is a key gesture that ensures India and Pakistan model the U.S. and abandon LoW capabilities
Mintz 1 – Morton, former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter
[Feb 26, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch]nb
2. By creating an international norm of operational safety … of U.S. hair-trigger-alert procedures.
Thus, the Plan:

The United States Federal Government should adopt a policy of Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation.
Contention 5 is No Disads:
19 separate unilateral de-alerting measures disprove their DAs
Habiger accessed 9 – Eugene, U.S. Air Force four-star general, former top U.S. nuclear commander at Stratcom
[Acc. Aug 14, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/debate/comments.html]cn
We've taken some aggressive steps…. The Russians have reciprocated in six of those 19. Who won the cold war?
Obama has already sent a global signal and will inevitably push for multiple anti-nuclear reforms
Lindamood 9 – Holly, Program Director and Research Associate, Daisy Alliance
[Jun 10, http://blog.daisyalliance.org/2009/06/10/obama%E2%80%99s-100-day-nonproliferation-report-card/]cn
Publicly, President Obama continues to be committed to his nonproliferation and disarmament … in order to have a
new treaty in place before START 1 expires.
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GSU Aff Disclosure

The U.S. currently maintains a policy of Launch on Warning, or LoW, which has the U.S. launch its nuclear weapons
upon detection of an incoming attack rather than waiting for actual detonation
Rosenbaum 9 – Ron, author and journalist
[Aug 21, LEXIS]cn
But Obama's got to make like a commander in chief if he wants … Both locks can be opened in minutes.
Contention 2 is Miscalc:
LoW poses the biggest threat of accidental nuclear war – compounding risk factors make accidents impossible to
prevent
[May/Jun, “Let’s go No-LOW,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol 60: No 3]cn
As long as the United States and Russia retain their arsenals of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles… to
provide redundancy—it may amplify mistakes.
LoW makes prudent decisionmaking impossible – short timeframes and pre-scripted launch scenarios make accidental
nuclear war extremely likely
officer
[Feb 16, http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm]cn
One of the most rarefied experiences of a newly installed president is his receiving of the “nuclear football” …that U.S.
missiles did not remain sitting ducks for very long.
False alarms will trigger full-scale nuclear war with Russia – the impact is extinction
Caldicott 2 – Helen, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility
[The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12]pr
If launched from Russia, nuclear weapons would explode over American cities thirty minutes after takeoff. …became
even more significant after the September 11 attack.
Russia will retaliate – semi-automatic Perimeter system ensures it
Roth 6 – George Simmons, author
[“A Simple Solution for Accidental Nuclear War”]cn
Finally, and most dangerous of all, the Russians…in turn, would automatically launch their ICBMs.
Even a small accident obliterates deterrence and makes the Earth uninhabitable
Starr 8 – Steven, M.D., educator and consultant on nuclear weapons issues
[http://www.ipacademy.org/asset/file/395/starr.pdf]cn
What if deterrence fails? �Deterrence requires rational behavior and rational … then isn’t nuclear war a form of global
suicide?
Multiple examples prove serious mishaps are inevitable and increasingly probable
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There have been many mistakes in the operation of nuclear deterrence … it was not going to land in Russia. They still
didn't know it wasn't a nuclear bomb.
The past is not predictive – close calls prove the risk of accidental war is high
Sagan 93 – Scott Douglas, professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security
and Cooperation
[“The limits of safety: Organizations, accidents, and nuclear weapons” pp. 11-12]cn
One possibility is to assume that this central fact proves that the danger of nuclear weapons accidents and …may not
inspire extreme confidence.
LoW makes the U.S. particularly susceptible to deliberate cyber attacks on early warning systems
PNA 9 – Project for Nuclear Awareness
[Acc. Aug 14, http://www.nucleardarkness.org/highalert/nuclearwarcausedbyterrorism/]cn
As long as the US and Russia maintain LoW capability … nuclear strike based on a terrorist-generated false warning
when in fact no attack had occurred.
It’s try or die for the aff – failure to change LoW guarantees extinction
Spencer 5 – Metta, Professor of Sociology at the University of Toronto
[Dec 31, http://metta-spencer.blogspot.com/2005_12_01_archive.html]cn
The problem with “launch-on-warning” is that … is as courageous and independent as Colonel Petrov.
Accidents are the most probable nuclear escalation scenario
At the present time, I think an accidental war is far more …seems rather a miracle that it hasn't happened already.
No alt causes – LoW creates the only scenario for an accidental nuke war
Podvig 6 – Pavel, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University
[“Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch,” Science and Global Security, http://iis-
db.stanford.edu/pubs/21283/14_2-3__Podvig.pdf]cn
There are several scenarios that can lead to an … between these events and the actions that would be taken in
response to the attack warning.13
Unilateral abandonment of LoW solves accidents
I can't answer that question directly, but there are a lot of things that bear on … that it would be halved because the
risk on the Russian side may be greater.
A policy of Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation, or RLOAD, solves accidental nuclear war
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[Jan 8, http://www.worldfederalistscanada.org/rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan.pdf]cn
Replacing LoW with RLOAD would require, in the American system, … revert to peacetime readiness.
Contention 3 is Russia:
U.S. LoW posture causes Russia to maintain a highly mobile and vulnerable nuclear posture – this makes terrorist
acquisition and use of a nuclear weapon inevitable
officer
[Jan/Feb, http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/policy/russian-nuclear-
policy/PDFs/Primed%20and%20Ready.pdf]cn
It is surprising to many people that so much firepower, representing such an apocalyptic threat… weapon remains
under terrorist control.
It’s try or die – terrorists have the means and motivation to steal and use a Russian nuke
Allison 7 – Graham, Director of the Center for Science and International Affairs and Professor of Government at
Harvard
[Nov/Dec, LEXIS]cn
Mueller is entitled to his opinion that the threat of nuclear proliferation …could hide it in a bale of marijuana.
Deterrence won’t prevent nuclear terrorism – 3 reasons
Chyba & Crouch 9 – Christopher, professor of astrophysics and international affairs at Princeton University, and J.D.,
former deputy national security advisor
[Jul, http://www.twq.com/09july/docs/09jul_ChybaCrouch.pdf]cn
There is broad agreement that at least some terrorist groups … nuclear deterrence with respect to certain ‘‘rogue’’
regimes.7
The public would demand a response to the attack – the U.S. would target the Muslim world, escalating to extinction
Corsi 5 – Jerome, Ph.D. from Harvard, best-selling author
[Apr 20, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=43817]cn
In the span of less than one hour, the nation's largest city will have been virtually wiped off the … while the country
was still capable of exacting revenge.
This is true even if the attack fails
Sid-Ahmed 4 – Mohamed, Al-Ahram senior columnist
[Extinction! Issue No. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]cn
What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by …whole planet, we will all be losers.
Terrorist use of a nuclear weapon triggers global nuclear war, despite the location
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Terrorists or some unknown nation … attack each other, to destroy nuclear and military capabilities.
Getting rid of U.S. LoW policies causes Russian modeling – it eliminates the need for a first strike posture and the
focus on speedy counterforce strikes
Karas 1 – Thomas, Advanced Concepts Group, Sandia National Laboratories
[Apr, http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/labs/de_alt_act_tnw.pdf]cn
As noted in Box 1, current U.S. declaratory policy is to … be stronger political incentives to ride out an enemy first
strike.)
The plan removes the incentive for massive Russian transportation, which eliminates the threat of theft
officer
[Sept 19, http://www.cdi.org/blair/loose-nukes.cfm]cn
On any given day, many hundreds of Russian nuclear weapons are moving around the … a few keystrokes on a
launch console.
Contention 4 is India/Pakistan:
India and Pakistan model U.S. LoW posture, developing early warning systems and high-alert forces
Mian et al 2 – Zia, Pakistani physicist; R. Rajaraman, professor of physics at Jawaharlal Nehru University; Frank von
Hippel, professor of public and international affairs at Princeton
[Aug 2, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/437]cn
The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying … of sending them forward in a threatening
manner--as it does today.
We are on the brink – India is close to adopting LoW
NRDC 7 – National Resources Defense Council
[July/Aug, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “India’s nuclear forces”]nb
As India’s nuclear capabilities and ambitions continue to … of alert and launch,” according to the MOD.5
Declaration of LoW in South Asia will trigger preemptive nuclear strikes
Beres 98 – Louis, Professor at Purdue
[American University International Law Review, LEXIS]cn
Indian and Pakistani inclinations to launch preemptive … attacks against each state's own armaments and population
centers. 27
Indo-Pak nuclear exchange escalates into global nuclear war
India-Pakistan nuclear exchange escalates to … initiates revenge attacks against Arab and Muslim capitols.
Even a limited nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would trigger planetary extinction
Greaney 7 – T.J., writer for the Columbia Daily Tribune
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[Nov 7, LEXIS]cn
Starr further explained that a "small, regional" nuclear war those … down to it, we have to start looking at ourselves as
a species."
Independently, accidents and proximity ensure Indo-Pak acquisition of early warning capabilities will trigger nuclear
war
Ramana 2 – M.V., Ph.D., physicist, Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies in Environment and Development
[Nov 7, http://www.geocities.com/m_v_ramana/nucleararticles/earlywarning_accidents.htm]cn
General Worden’s statement was probably wrong on … that can be launched at short notice.
Nuclear accidents are extremely probable for India and Pakistan – no matter the scenario, the impact will be full-scale
nuclear war
Hoodbhoy 98 – Pervez, Ph.D., Professor of Nuclear Physics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
[Dec 8, http://www.chowk.com/articles/4419]cn
Are these fictional, exaggerated, fears? I wish it …post-nuclear age is an act of supreme folly.
The plan is a key gesture that ensures India and Pakistan model the U.S. and abandon LoW capabilities
Mintz 1 – Morton, former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism and a former Washington Post reporter
[Feb 26, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch]nb
2. By creating an international norm of operational safety … of U.S. hair-trigger-alert procedures.
Thus, the Plan:

The United States Federal Government should adopt a policy of Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation.
Contention 5 is No Disads:
19 separate unilateral de-alerting measures disprove their DAs
Habiger accessed 9 – Eugene, U.S. Air Force four-star general, former top U.S. nuclear commander at Stratcom
[Acc. Aug 14, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/debate/comments.html]cn
We've taken some aggressive steps…. The Russians have reciprocated in six of those 19. Who won the cold war?
Obama has already sent a global signal and will inevitably push for multiple anti-nuclear reforms
Lindamood 9 – Holly, Program Director and Research Associate, Daisy Alliance
[Jun 10, http://blog.daisyalliance.org/2009/06/10/obama%E2%80%99s-100-day-nonproliferation-report-card/]cn
Publicly, President Obama continues to be committed to his nonproliferation and disarmament … in order to have a
new treaty in place before START 1 expires.
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West Georgia Grellinger/Marianetti (Dealert) [Logan]
Vanderbilt Russia Relations Adv.

Despite the nmd concession, the underlying pattern of US-Russian relations is negative
Assoc. Press 09 [Fred Weir, “Russia’s response to US missle shield shift,” Sept 17, http://features.csmonitor
.com/globalnews/2009/09/17/russias-response-to-us-missle-defesne-shield-shift/
MOSCOW—President Barack Obama’s decision…but the underlying patter of relations is unlikely to change in any
basic way.”
High alert status is the most important source of tension that undermines strategic cooperation
Starr, 08 [senior scientists with physicians for social responsibility, Stephen, “Cold War Has Thawed Only Slightly,”
6/30, http://www.nucleardarkness.org/solutions/disarmamentversusdeterrence/]
At the conclusion of their April 2008 summit,…about its proposed European missle defense system
Launch on warning perpetuates a relationship system that precludes genuine trust—well control the internal link better
than their cps
Arbatov and Dvorkin 6 [Scholar in Residence and Program Co-chair of Nuclear Nonproliferation at the Carnegie
Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexei
and Vladimir, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence. http://www.caregieendowment.org/files/arbatov_intro.pdf]
General and complete nuclear disarmament, as noble…among the great powers, further undercutting their ability to
think and act together.
Alert status has a crucial symbolic effect—the message of the plan conveys about the likelihood of conflict will have a
moderating effect
Karas, o1 [Sandia National Labs, Thomas, “De-alerting and De-activating Strategic Nuclear Weapons,” April,
http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_doc/labs/de_alt_act_tnw.pdf]
Note that not all forms of high alert statsu…would convey the opposite message.
Cooperation key to solve Russian economy and terror

Arbatov and Dvorkin 6 [Scholar in Residence and Program Co-chair of Nuclear Nonproliferation at the Carnegie
Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexei
and Vladimir, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence. http://www.caregieendowment.org/files/arbatov_intro.pdf]
Still it is worth mentioning. Russia’s domestic economic…and economic integration with the West.
Stable Russian Economy key to prevent Civil War

David, professor of Political Sci. at Johns Hopkins University, jan/Feb 1999 [steven, “saving America from the Coming
Civil Wars,” Foreign Affairsp.ln]
<If internal war does strike Russia, economic…would quickly draw in Russia’s military.>
Ensures proxy wars and nuclear exchange

David, professor of Political Sci. at Johns Hopkins University, jan/Feb 1999 [steven, “saving America from the Coming
Civil Wars,” Foreign Affairsp.ln]
<Should Russia succumb to internal war, the consequences…would follow a Russian civil war.>
US-Russian cooperation critical to international weapon security efforts against terror

Allison 2004. “How to Stop Nuclear Terror.” Grahm. Foreign Affairs. LN
As the preceding discussion sucggests, the rest of the nuclear club would quickly follow.
Even if an attempted nuclear terrorist attack failed—US would retaliate causing extinction
Sid-Ahmed 2004 [Mohamed sid-ahmed, political analyst, aug. 26-sept 1, 2004, al aharm weekly online,
We have reached a point in human history where…infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
Due to Russia’s unique geographic and geopolitical qualities cooperation is key to preventing multiple regional conflicts
and WMD terrorism, as well as solving global problems
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Nixon Center 2
[“advancing american interests and the U.S.-Russia relationship:interim report – September 2003]
“As the report of the commission on American National Interests””vital and extremely important U.S. interests”
Cuts Now:
Obama is going to decrease nukes – makes their links inevitable

Kaufman 9
“in her prepared remarks for the general””by the conference on Disarmament, she said”
Obama’s reducing the role of nukes now

Grossman 9
“U.S. President Barack Obama, shown addressing” “that we can hardly imagine”
GSU Aff Disclosure
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially limit use of its nuclear weapons arsenal by
renouncing launch on warning, ensuring that retaliation would not take place without confirmation of a nuclear
detonation.
Contention One Get Low
First is the Mentality
Currently the United States is on a Launch on Warning status that is rooted in Cold War calculations
Rosenbaum 9
Ron, “Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama’s Dream of Zero?” Aug 21, http://www.slate.com/id/2225817/pagenum/all/
In his campaign, Obama… launch on warning.
And this mentality of Launch on Warning developed as a component of the system of Mutually Assured Destruction.
Collapse of the Soviet Union did not change these systems, and even with recent reductions there are still enough
weapons to destroy human civilization
Corcoran 9
Ed, Ph.D., serves as a Senior Fellow on national security issues at GlobalSecurity.org., Frmr. Strategic Analyst at the
US Army War College where he chaired studies for the Office of the Deputy Chief of Operations and member of the
National Advisory Board for the Alsos Digital Library for Nuclear Issues, we win the qualification game, April 21,
http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090421301-strategic-nuclear-targets.htm
That brings us to Russia… a total nuclear exchange.
The US system of hair trigger alert is a relic of the cold war that is perpetuated by the lack of reporting journalism gives
it. This system risks extinction
Mintz 5
Morton, covered the Supreme Court for The Washington Post from 1964 to 1965 and again from 1977 to 1980. He is
also a former chair of the Fund for Investigative Journalism, Nov/Dec, Columbia Journalism Review Vol 44, Iss. 4
The reporting that allows… Nunn nor Habiger.
Second is the Mechanics of Low

The process whereby LOW as operational doctrine causes time crunches which create stress and makes mistakes
likely
Blair 99
Interview Dr. Bruce Blair, September 13, 1999 ADM's Mark Sugg interviews the Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy
Studies at the Brookings Institution, for "Innovation in Arms Control: De-Alerting",
http://www.cdi.org/adm/1316/Blair.html
BLAIR: Well, launch… at a moment's notice.
The confidence and reports of technology being “perfect” is exactly the reason why mistaken launch is more probable
Podvig 5
Pavel PhD CISAC Research Associate and Acting Associate Director for Research Reducing the Risk of Accidental
Launch: A Case for Unilateral Action,
http://cisac.stanford.edu/news/reducing_the_risk_of_accidental_launch_a_case_for_unilateral_action_20050908/
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History shows that… regardless of reciprocity.
Contention Two Nukes are Bad

Scenario One is A Weapon
One nuclear weapon would kill over 6 million, jack the environment, and disrupt urbanized areas
Forrow 4
Forrow et al, 2004. Accidental Nuclear War — A Post–Cold War Assessment. The New England Journal of Medicine.
MD
We assume that eight…
Scenario two is “limited nuclear war”

A limited nuclear would kill millions and escalate to counterforce strikes
Fetter 90
Steve, member of the U of Maryland faculty since 1988, serving as dean from 2005 to 2009, He is currently on leave
as Assistant Director in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy,
http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/1990-CSIA-NuclearPrimer.pdf
The “limited” war.. numbers of Soviet citizens.
Scenario 3 is escalation
Accidental launch of nuclear weapons is no small thing – Even limited escalation sets the stage to eradicate all
complex life
Starr 8
Steven, Scientists for Global Responsibility, Autumn, SGR Newsletter, issue 36,
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/nucleardarkness/files/high-
General knowledge of… nuclear environmental treaty.
Contention 3 The Risk of Mistaken Launches

Accidental war is more likely than intentional war
Phillips 3
At the present time… hasn't happened already.
Massive attacks are not possible neither side has a mutual interest in annihilating each other
Rosenbaum 8
Ron, Acclaimed Journalist Of The New Yorker, The New York Times Magazine, The Atlantic, Harper’s Magazine,
Vanity Fair, Esquire And Slate “A Real Nuclear Option For The Nominees Averting "Inadvertent" War In Two Easy
Steps”, May 9, 2008, Http:Www.Slate.Com/Id/2191104/Pagenum/All/
In Phase 1, he recommends… instant "inadvertent" use?
The only plausible scenario of a false attack is one based on a false warning – other causalities such as bad tech is
unwarranted
Abrams 98
Herbert L. Abrams - Faculty Member at CISAC, Accidental Nuclear War: A Post-Cold War Assessment Published by
New England Journal of Medicine, 1998,
http://fsi.stanford.edu/publications/accidental_nuclear_war_a_postcold_war_assessment/
A particular danger stems… Russian launch-on-warning protocols.
Even if war occurs having posture of hair trigger is worse because is worse because it degrades the rationality of
nuclear decision making
NAS 7
Executive Summary of the National Academy of Sciences Report, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons
Policyhttp:www.armscontrol.org/act/1997_05/nas
"The nuclear command systems… hair-trigger is clear."
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Contention Four Solvency

A policy of no launch on warning would solve the risk of accidental war, and is effective even if it isn’t reciprocated
Phillips 02
To change from L-o-W… the change has been made.
A policy of No Low solves the risk of accidents

Phillips 02
It is argued that the… weapons systems.
Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation would be easily limited

Phillips, 03
Q21: How easy… than a year.
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**FORCE POSTURE**
Case Western Parker/Yeranossian (W-88s) [Logan]
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Cornell Himmelstein/Karin (Counterforce) [Logan]
Plan: The United States federal government should adopt a policy of minimal deterrence. We'll clarify.
counterforce TARGETING currently informs all decisions about U.S. nuclear posture AND LOCKS ALL OTHER
NUCLEAR POWERS INTO A COUNTERFORCE MINDSET
Kristensen et al 9 Hans- director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Robert S.
Norris & Ivan Oelrich "From counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A new Nuclear policy on the path toward eliminating
nuclear weapons". April
With the Cold War over, the ideological battle with …It is time for something new.
Russia Advantage
COUNTERFORCE STRATEGY FUELS AN ONGOING ARMS RACE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND RUSSIA AND
MAKES MISCALCULATION INCREASINGLY LIKELY
Harkabi et al 8. Yehoshafat- Harvard University, Alan Dowty, Derek Orlans, Yigal Shenkman “Nuclear War and
Nuclear Peace” Page 77
On the other hand, it may be claimed that ….transformed into a conflict of interests.
RUSSIA’S AGING DETECTION SYSTEMS COUPLED WITH THE TIME PRESSURES TO LAUNCH CAUSED BY
COUNTERFORCE TARGETING CREATE AN INCREASING AND PERSISTENT RISK OF ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH
Cirincione 9, Joseph- President of the Ploughshares Fund “The Continuing Threat of Nuclear War” in Global
Catastrophic Risks by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Ćirković p. 383-4
Although much was made of the 1994 joint decision by Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin to no longer target
each other with their weapons,…, to avoid an accidental or unauthorized launch.'
AND, EVEN DURING PEACETIME ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH IS A REAL POSSIBILITY
Podvig 6 Pavel- Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University “Reducing the risk of an
accidental launch” Science and Global Security, vol. 14:75-115
http://russianforces.org/podvig/2006/10/reducing_the_risk_of_an_accide.shtml
An argument has been made that in peacetime, … as it might be the case if the system reported a large-scale attack.
IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO ARTICULATE THE EXACT SEQUENCE OF EVENTS CAUSING THE ACCIDENTAL
LAUNCHES BUT THAT DOESN’T PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY
Podvig 6 Pavel- Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University “Reducing the risk of an
accidental launch” Science and Global Security, vol. 14:75-115
http://russianforces.org/podvig/2006/10/reducing_the_risk_of_an_accide.shtml
The short timelines and very … response to the attack warning.[13]
MISCALCULATION WOULD CAUSE EXTINCTION
Helfand & Pastore 9, Ira- President of Physicians for Social Responsibility and John- Former President of Physicians
for Social Responsibility, “U.S.-Russia nuclear war still a threat”
President Obama and Russian President … many species, including perhaps our own, would become extinct.
The US and Russia are taking minute-by-minute risks by keeping their weapons on high alert – we must move to
minimal deterrence now
Kristensen 9 Hans- director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Robert S.
The missions assigned to nuclear weapons …more effectively than retaliating in a day or a week.
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REMOVING SUBMARINES, SWITCHING TO INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING, AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCING

THE SIZE OF THE ARSENAL ARE NECESSARY STEPS TO PREVENT MISCALC AND INCREASING RUSSIAN
RELIANCE ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS
The second nuclear-only mission is a first strike …day-by-day increase in the threat to the United States.
China Advantage
TIPPING POINT- CHINA IS RAPIDLY MODERNIZING ITS MILITARY
Zhang 7 Baohui- Associate Professor At Lingnan University "Modernization of Chinese Nuclear Forces and its impact
on Sino-US Relations" Asian Affairs. June 22
Indeed, given China’s rapid progress…. of a new qualitative level.”20
CHINA WANTS TO MATCH THE SIZE OF THE U.S. ARSENAL
Lewis 9 Jeffery, “Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force Modernization,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, July.
Routledge
What is driving China’s development … shaped by bureaucratic and ideological factors
THE UNITED STATES’ INSISTENCE ON COUNTERFORCE TARGETING IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF THIS
MODERNIZATION
The U.S. Intelligence Community has repeatedly …Chinese arsenal size and deployment could result.
MODERNIZATION CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR EXCHANGE IS INEVITABLE
Lewis 9 Jeffrey G. “Chinese nuclear posture and force modernization” The Nonproliferation Review, Volume 16, Issue
2 July 2009, pages 197-209
Today, however, China is changing rapidly. …to China's nuclear-armed DF-21 and DF-21As?
COUNTER-INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING IS SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE DETERRENCE
We believe there are no targets for nuclear weapons …United States or its allies with nuclear weapons.
ERRONEOUS USE IS THE ONLY CAUSE OF ACCIDENTS
National Academy of Sciences 97 “The Future of US Nuclear Weapons Policy,” The National Academis Press,
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5796&page=17
Although the term "accidental" …particularly troubling in this regard.
Accidents are the only risk of INTER-STATE NUCLEAR WAR nuclear war
Lewis 8 Jeffrey- director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation
July/August Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
In addition, scholars began … the stability of deterrence.
ACCIDENTS ARE THE ONLY SCENARIO FOR MAJOR WAR
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Fettweis 6 Christopher, National Security Decision Making Department, US Naval War College, 2006, “A Revolution in
International Relation Theory: Or, What If Mueller Is Right?” International Studies Review (2006) 8, 677–697]
The argument is founded upon a traditional…"sub-rationally unthinkable."
Solvency
None of their disads are unique- The U.S. has cut its nuclear arsenal many times
Since the end of the Cold War, the …Bush cut it in half again in the 2002-2008 period.
OBAMA WILL MAKE FURTHER CUTS WITHIN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
Traynor & Wintour 9 Ian and Patrick “Barack Obama's new offensive against nuclear weapons” The Gaurdian. 4 April
2009 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/04/barack-obama-nuclear-weapons
Barack Obama yesterday … It changes everything."
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Cornell Pasha/Wright (Counterforce) [Logan]
Harvard 1AC
The United States currently maintains the traditional strategic triad despite arms reduction agreements
Woolf 8
[Amy F., CRS Report for Congress, Specialist in National Defense, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Divisoon,
“U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues”]
The Bush Administration stated … of the reductions.
Thus the plan –
The United States federal government should adopt a policy of minimal deterrence.
Advantage 1 – Accidents
U.S. counter force capability forces Russia to keep its nuclear weapons on high alert and maintain a “launch on
warning” policy
Kristensen, et al. 9
[Hans, "From counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A new Nuclear policy on the path toward eliminating nuclear
weapons" director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. April. online]
Adopting a minimal … a false alarm.
Launch on warning options and high alerts ensure a persistently high risk of accidental launch
Cirincione 9
[Joseph- President of the Ploughshares Fund “The Continuing Threat of Nuclear War” in Global Catastrophic Risks by
Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Ćirković p. 383-4]
Although much was … or unauthorized launch.'
Accidental launch leads to extinction
Helfand & Pastore 9

[Ira- President of Physicians for Social Responsibility and John- Former President of Physicians for Social
Responsibility, “U.S.-Russia nuclear war still a threat” ]
President Obama and … would become extinct.
U.S. counter force targeting and submarines cause dispersion of Russian nuclear weapons and makes terrorist
acquisition inevitable
Blair 4
[Bruce president of the Center for Defense Information, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute “The Wrong Deterrence:
The Threat of Loose Nukes is One of Our Own Making” http://www.cdi.org/blair/loose-nukes.cfm]
On any given day, … and selling them).
Terrorists can easily acquire and build a nuclear weapon because of lack of Russian nuclear safeguards. This causes
U.S. retaliation and nuclear war – and independently the fear of Russian loose nukes causes global proliferation
Speice 6
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[Patrick F. Speice, Jr., JD Candidate @ College of William and Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR
NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN
NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, February 2006, 47 Wm and Mary L.
Rev. 1427]
Accordingly, there is a … use of nuclear weapons. 53
Advantage 2 – China
Chinese modernization now and accelerating – U.S. counterforce targeting is the key driver
Chase 9
[Michael S., Andrew S. Erickson and Christopher Yeaw, Journal of Strategic Studies, “Chinese Theater and Strategic
Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the United States,” February, 32, Issue 1, pp. 67 – 114]
The People's Liberation Army … missile defense environment.
Modernization fuels an India-Pakistan-China proliferation triangle, which destabilizes the region
Krepon 9
[Michael, “Nuclear Arms and the Future of South Asia,” Joint Force Quarterly, April. Online.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0KNN/is_53/ai_n31464292/pg_4/?tag=content;col1]
The accelerating pace … on the subcontinent.
This leads to South Asia nuclear war
ANI 8
[December 7, 2008 Sunday, Asian News International, HEADLINE: US commission says urgent need to secure
Pakistan's biological and nuclear weapons]
China is also fuelling … their strategic postures.
U.S. counterforce targeting forces China to put its deterrent out to sea increasing the risk of accidental nuclear
exchange
Beljac 8
[Foreign Policy In Focus contributor, teaches at the University of Melbourne, April 1, 2008 Tuesday, Foreign Policy in
Focus, HEADLINE: Arms Race in Space, p. Lexis]
The noted space and … accidental nuclear exchange.
Sea battles are the most likely point of approach for US-Sino accidents
Chase 9
[Michael S., Andrew S. Erickson and Christopher Yeaw, Journal of Strategic Studies, “Chinese Theater and Strategic
Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the United States,” February, 32, Issue 1, pp. 67 – 114]
An additional aspect … perhaps discussion, for both sides.
Chinese submarines destabilize the region and ensure a nuclear exchange in Asia
Beljac 8
[Marko, “Is the Navy Talking up China’s Nuclear Submarine Threat,” September 12th. Online]
This should alarm us, … being faced by Washington.
Additionally, U.S. tailing makes U.S. – Sino nuclear war inevitable
Lewis 9
[Jeffrey G. “Chinese nuclear posture and force modernization” The Nonproliferation Review, Volume 16, Issue 2 July
2009, pages 197-209]
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Today, however, China is changing …nuclear-armed DF-21 and DF-21As
Advantage 3 – Proliferation
Rapid proliferation is occurring now & likely to increase in coming years – causing miscalculation and nuclear war
Ferguson et al 9
[Charles D – Project Director, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, with chairs William J Perry - professor at Stanford
University, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and serves as codirector of the
Preventive Defense Project, and Brent Scowcroft - resident trustee of the Forum for International Policy, served as the
national security adviser to both Presidents Ford and Bush. “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy”, Independent Task Force
Report No. 62, April, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Nuclear_Weapons_TFR62.pdf]
Increasing global access …the security of American allies.
The plan creates international cooperation to prevent the global spread of nuclear weapons
Perry & Schlessenger 9

[William J, James, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor at Stanford University, and MITRA Chairman "America's
Strategic Posture" May 2009]
While the programs …rolling back proliferation.
Boosting U.S. leadership on nonproliferation is critical to garner global support for multilateral initiatives that prevent
proliferation
National Security Advisory Group 7

[“Reducing Nuclear Threats and Preventing Nuclear Terrorism”, October 19, under the direction of Wendy R.
Sherman, Principal, The Albright Group LLC and Robert J. Einhorn, Senior Advisor, International Security Programs,
Center for Strategic and International Studies]
Reducing the nuclear threats … rather than the rule.
Proliferation diplomacy solves nuclear terrorism – traditional deterrence can’t deter stateless actors, but international
cooperation can create a monitoring & detection regime that indirectly deters terrorists
Ferguson et al 9
[Charles D – Project Director, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, with chairs William J Perry - professor at Stanford
University, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and serves as codirector of the
Preventive Defense Project, and Brent Scowcroft - resident trustee of the Forum for International Policy, served as the
national security adviser to both Presidents Ford and Bush. “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy”, Independent Task Force
Report No. 62, April, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Nuclear_Weapons_TFR62.pdf]
Traditional means of deterrence—…of the nuclear attack.
Nuclear terrorism is probable and likely in the status quo – creating a new inspections & verification regime is
necessary to prevent a cataclysmic attack
Andelman 9
[David, editor of the World Policy Journal, former executive editor of Forbes, “ONWARD TO ARMAGEDDON?”, World
Policy Journal, Fall, Vol. 26, No. 3, Pages 115-121]
But the concept of …., or the United States.
Proliferation causes conflict escalation and nuclear war – deterrence doesn’t check
Muller 8
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[Harald, Executive Director, Head of Research Department (RD) Peace Research Institute of Frankfurt, “The Future of
Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World” The Washington Quarterly, Spring,
http://www.twq.com/08spring/docs/08spring_muller.pdf]
A world populated by many … available to terrorists.
Further spread of nuclear weapons collapses the international order and alliance relationships – deterrence will break-
down because no one will know who is responsible for deterring who, causing miscalculation and war
Kissinger 4
[Henry Kissinger, former secretary of state, 11/8/04, Newsweek, p. lexis]
While militant Islam … support of terrorism.
Contention 2 is Solvency
A U.S. move to minimal deterrence ensures that we prevent accidental launch, arms races and drive to modernization
weapons" director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. April. P.online]
The missions assigned … retaliating in a day or a week.
We must eliminate U.S. counter force targeting – it informs the decisions of all nuclear weapons states and locks the
world in a capability race
With the Cold War over, … for something new
Moreover, counterforce makes conflicts more likely to escalate and prevents damage limitation
Glaser & Fetter 5

[Charles L.-Professor and Deputy Dean of the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the
University of Chicago, Steve- Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland.
“Counterforce Revisited” International Security 30.2 (2005) 84-126]
Although U.S. damage-limitation …accompanying risks of nuclear attack.55
Our argument is reverse causal – China and Russia would no longer engage in dangerous behavior post plan
If the United States abandons its …. MIRVing will be easier.
U.S. minimal deterrence eliminates the risk of accidental launch and proliferation
Podvig 6
[Pavel, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, “Reducing the Risk of an Accidental
Launch” Science and Global Security, 75-115]
Reduction of the number … of genuine force reductions.
Adopting a minimal deterrence posture is a sufficient and necessary condition to prevent global proliferation
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The counterforce mission, and all … reevaluated and loosened.
The U.S. only needs a few hundred warheads to deter potential adversaries
In this analysis, we consider …with nuclear weapons.
Conventional weapons are sufficient to prevent war post-plan
The essence of deterring …. weapons must offset.
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George Mason Herbert/Offenbach (Dissuasion) [Arif]
George Mason OH
Harvard Aff
George Mason HO:
Plan: The United States federal government should end the role of nuclear weapons in serving the national defense
goal of dissuasion to prevent nuclear parity.
Adv 1- China modernization

The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review put the dissuasion spotlight on China- subverting the logic of dissuasion,
increasing the voice of PLA hawks and driving Chinese modernization
Conetta 2006 ( Carl Conetta has been co-director of the Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA). Prior to joining PDA,
Mr. Conetta was a Research Fellow of the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies (IDDS) and also served for
three years as editor of the IDDS journal Defense and Disarmament Alternatives, and the Arms Control Reporter.As
co-director of PDA, Mr. Conetta has authored and co-authored numerous reports on security issues and has published
in Defense News, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, NOD and Conversion Journal, the Boston Review, the
Washington Post, the Boston Globe, the American Sentinel, Security Dialogue, and Hawk, the journal of the Royal Air
Force Staff College of the United Kingdom. Mr. Conetta has also made presentations at the Pentagon, US State
Department, US House Armed Services Committee, Army War College, National Defense University, UNIDIR, and
other governmental and nongovernmental institutions in the United States and abroad. He is a frequent expert
commentator on radio and TV. He edits the Chinese Military Power and Revolution in Military Affairs WebPages,
“Dissuading China and Fighting the “Long War” http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/06conetta.pdf)
As a result, three avenues have been pursued- strategic competition, political and economic costs, and increasing
economic and strategic cooperation. All fail to solve modernization.
Saunders July 2009 (Phillip C. Saunders has been a senior research fellow at the National Defense University's
Institute for National Strategic Studies since January 2004. He previously worked at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies, where he served as director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003 and
taught courses on Chinese politics, Chinese foreign policy, and East Asian security. Dr. Saunders has conducted
research and consulted on East Asian security issues for Princeton University and the Council on Foreign Relations
and previously worked on Asia policy issues as an officer in the United States Air Force. Dr. Saunders has published
numerous articles on China and Asian security including the monograph China’s Global Activism: Strategy, Drivers,
and Tools, and the article “Bridge over Troubled Water? Envisioning a China-Taiwan Peace Agreement” in
International Security, “Managing Strategic Competition with China” National Defense University, The National
Defense University is the premier center for Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) and is under the direction of
the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF244China_Saunders.pdf)
No arms race between the US and China now; however, continued interlocked US and Chinese modernization make it
inevitable. Lack of clear end point and increasing role of nuclear weapons shatter the strategic balance.
Twomey Feb 2009 (Christopher P co-directs the Center for Contemporary Conflict and is an assistant professor in the
Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Arms Control Today, Chinese-U.S.
Strategic Affairs: Dangerous Dynamism, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_01-02/china_us_dangerous_dynamism)
Specifically, interlocked modernization increase the risk of an arms race and confrontation. Subs and really, really
accurate nukes provide unique opportunities for escalation. History proves dissuasion increases Chinese
modernization.
Nuclear War
Cirincione 00 (Joseph, Director of Ploughshares Fund, Foreign Policy, 3-22, Lexis)
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Interlocked US/ Chinese modernization increases the risk of war over Taiwan- it’s the only scenario for war. A war with
China outweighs and accesses the economy, trade, and climate change. Now key to right the relationship.
Pollock Aug 2009 (Joshua, Consultant on Arms Control and Non-proliferation, He has conducted studies in several
areas, including arms control, verification technologies, proliferation, deterrence, intelligence, homeland security,
counterterrorism, and Middle East security affairs. He is a regular contributor at the prominent blog Arms Control
Wonk, focusing primarily on current challenges to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Bulletin of Atomic Scientists,
“Emerging Strategic Dilemmas in US-China Relations”
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/24783518wg6304j7/fulltext.pdf
War over Taiwan is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war.
Ikegami 2008 (Dr. Masako, Professor of Sociology and Peace & Conflict Studies and Director of the Center for Pacific
Asia Studies – Stockholm University “Time for Conflict Prevention Across the Taiwan Strait”, China Brief, 8(7), 3-28,
Indeed, a cross-Strait conflict… to worldwide criticism and boycotts of Chinese products.
Interlocked US/China modernization makes war over Taiwan that much worse- potential for miscalculation and
escalation means war will spiral out of control. Rogue PLA means nothing checks.
Scobell 2009 (Dr. Andrew Scobell is Associate Professor of International Affairs and Director of the China Certificate
Program in the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. He is the
author of China’s Use of Military Force and co-author of China’s Search for Security, Director of the China Certificate
Program – Texas A&M University, “Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise?”, Parameters, Summer,
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/09summer/scobell.pdf)
The actions suggest…. Commission was established in early 2008
War in Asia would escalate- no institutional checks and everybody has a beef with one another.
Chang October 2 2009 (Gordon, Published author, counsel to an American law firm in Shanghai and writes a column
for Forbes http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/01/war-in-asia-trade-opinions-columnists-gordon-chang.html?
feed=rss_popstories.)
Asia, unfortunately, is full of intractable…. can all guess what happens next.
Dissuasion doesn’t prevent Chinese modernization- they want mutual vulnerability.

Saunders July 2009 (Phillip C. Saunders has been a senior research fellow at the National Defense University's
Institute for National Strategic Studies since January 2004. He previously worked at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies, where he served as director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003 and
taught courses on Chinese politics, Chinese foreign policy, and East Asian security. Dr. Saunders has conducted
research and consulted on East Asian security issues for Princeton University and the Council on Foreign Relations
and previously worked on Asia policy issues as an officer in the United States Air Force. Dr. Saunders has published
numerous articles on China and Asian security including the monograph China’s Global Activism: Strategy, Drivers,
and Tools, and the article “Bridge over Troubled Water? Envisioning a China-Taiwan Peace Agreement” in
International Security, “Managing Strategic Competition with China” National Defense University, The National
Defense University is the premier center for Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) and is under the direction of
the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF244China_Saunders.pdf)
Although dissuasion is unlikely… Taiwan declaration of independence.
Scenario Two is A New Relationship
Everybody but the U.S. knows US primacy is over- Washington’s attempts to hang only fuel Beijing’s concerns.
Medeiros Aug 2009 (Evan S. Medeiros is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation in the Washington, DC
office. He specializes in research on the international politics of East Asia, China’s foreign and national security policy,
U.S.-China relations and Chinese defense industrial issues. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the
London School of Economics and Political Science, an M.Phil in International Relations from the University of
Cambridge (where he was a Fulbright Scholar), an M.A. in China Studies from the University of London’s School of
Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), He travels to Asia frequently and speaks, reads and writes Mandarin
Chinese.”China’s international behavior : activism, opportunism, and diversification”
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG850.pdf
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A third, defining Chinese… containment from the outside.”
Dissuasion ignores rapidly changing Chinese foreign policy. Interlocked U.S. and Chinese nuclear modernization
efforts will replace economic cooperation with strategic competition- destabilizing the relationship and creating a new
arms race.
It is critical that… dynamics in Chinese-U.S. strategic relations
Good US China relations key to solve the economy, proliferation, Doha, and terrorism.
Irish 2005 (Charles R. Irish, Director of the East Asian Legal Studies Center - University of Wisconsin, Madison &
Robert W. Irish, associate with the law firm of Alston and Bird, August 2005, Journal of World Trade, (Vol 39: 4), p.
719, “Misdirected Ire and Lost Opportunities: The False Crisis in Sino-American Relations”
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=895538951&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=4676&RQT=309&VName=PQD
The news is not good… image of the United States.
Terrorist attack will result in extinction

SID-AHMED, internationally renowned reporter and columnist in Al Ahram, 2K4 Mohamed, “Extinction!” Al-Ahram
Weekly, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
What would be the consequences… we will all be losers.
Major power transitions risk international war in Asia – Strong Sino-US ties key to maintaining peace
Velloor 2k7 [Ravi, The Straits Times (Singapore), January 19, 2007, “Good US-China ties vital for Asian peace]
ASIA'S big challenge… what the US is thinking,' he said.
Eliminating dissuasion reduces reliance and ends a mission

Brooks 08 (Linton F. Brooks, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and an advisor to
two of the Department of Energy weapons laboratories, has over four decades of experience in national security,
including service as assistant director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, chief U.S. negotiator for the
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, director of defense programs and arms control on the National Security Council
staff , and a number of Navy and Defense Department assignments as a 30-year career naval officer, 12/08, Taking
Disarmament Seriously: Prospects for Changing Strategic Doctrines, Prospects for Changing Strategic Doctrines,
Nuclear Challenges and Policy Options for the Next U.S. Administration, Jean du Preez, Editor, Occasional Paper No.
14)
There are several actions… of nuclear weapons.
2AC tricks:
Your modernization arguments don't apply--our evidence is about "interlocked modernization" which is uniquely
destabilizing.
GSU Aff Disclosure
George Mason HO:
Plan: The United States federal government should ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
2010 Adv
The NPT is under heavy strain- Iran, North Korea, and risk of terrorism
Joseph April 2009 (Jofi, Senior Democratic Foreign Policy Staffer, The Washington Quarterly April 2009 “Renew the
Drive for CTBT Ratification” http://www.twq.com/09april/ docs/09apr_Joseph.pdf)
Obama has assumed… top of any president’s to-do list.
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All signs point towards disaster for the 2010 Review Conference. Another NPT failure erodes confidence and
increases risk of nuclear breakouts. Negotiations credibility key to a successful review conference
Preez October 2008 (Jean du, Arms Control Today, Avoiding a Perfect Storm: Recharting the NPT Review Process”
Vol. 28, Issue 8, pg 13)
Since the milestone 2000 review… how outcomes are defined
2010 represents a crucial moment for the NPT. Washington’s failure to ratify the CTBT contributes directly to the
NPT’s tailspin, making good on past commitments sets the stage for a successful review conference- British Officials
Hampton Sept 9th 2009 (Olivia, “Parliamentary group presses Obama on nuclear policy” http://www.google.com/
hostednews/afp/article/ ALeqM5h25QIs9hv7fNinwRlcgmRE4R BxIg
UK lawmakers Wednesday…. global summit on nuclear security
Without a credible, robust NPT the world goes to hell in a hand basket
Muller 2008 (Harold, director of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt and professor of international relations at
Frankfurt University, “The Future of Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World”, Washington Quarterly 31.2
The NPT is the cornerstone…… are available to terrorists.
The 2010 Review Conference will repeat history without new negotiating tools-CTBT ratification makes good on
Washington’s past promises
Johnson June 2009 (Rebecca, “Enhanced Prospects for 2010: AN analysis of the Third PrepCom and the Outlook for
the 2010 NPT Review Conference” Arms Control Today, Washington: Jun 2009. Vol. 39, Issue. 5; pg. 16, 7 pgs
If sustained in the…. determined in the coming year
Fuel Cycle Adv:
The NPT is at a nuclear tipping point-50 states now possess breakout capability. Absent renewed, robust US
commitment to article VI non-nuclear states won’t budge on stronger fuel cycle
Gard Aug 25th 2009 (Robert, Chairman Center for Arms Control, “Zero Nuclear Weapons: A Feasible
Goal?”http://www. armscontrolcenter.org/policy/ nuclearweapons/articles/ 082509_zero_nuclear_weapons_ feasible/
There are ominous signs…. situation posited by El Baradei
Broken promises have destroyed US negotiating credibility preventing successful fuel cycle agreements. Egypt, South
Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, Algeria, Canada, Malaysia, South Korea, Switzerland, and Turkey all say FU to Washington.
Fuel cycle technology is “the greatest proliferation risk”.
Perkovich October 2008 (George, Vice President for Studies @ the Carnegie Institute for Peace and Director of
Nonproliferation Program at Carnegie, “Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States should lead”)
Key non–nuclear-weapon states…. the greatest proliferation risk.”
Robust US commitment to non-proliferation green-lights stronger controls on fuel cycle technology

Perkovich October 2008 (George, Vice President for Studies @ the Carnegie Institute for Peace and Director of
Nonproliferation Program at Carnegie, “Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States should lead”)
U.S. officials, occasionally…. conditions for achieving them
Strong fuel cycle controls are key- fuel cycle access puts countries weeks away from a bomb.
Sokolski July 2009 (Henry, “Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd” Policy Review Washington Issue 1555)
Also, nuclear fuel-making… the nuclear threats we already face.
Iranian weaponization causes rapid proliferation throughout the middle east- risks nuclear war
Cirincione Dec 2008 (Joseph, President of the Ploughshares Foundation, “A Mideast Nuclear Chain Reaction?”
Journal of Current History Philadelphia: __Dec 2008__. Vol. 107, Iss. 713; pg. 439, 4 pgs)
Thus, the true danger of… based on a variety of factors."
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Without renewed commitment by Washington to Article VI other countries will continue to use Article IV as a cover-
increases risk of regional proliferation cascades
Dunn July 2009 (Lewis, senior vice president of Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC), served as assistant
director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and ambassador for the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in
the Reagan administration, THE NPT Assessing the Past, Building the Future
Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009)
The use of the Article IV… for pursuing nuclear weapons.
Escalates to the most ridiculous power war ever

Sokolski July 2009 (Henry, “Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd” Policy Review Washington Issue 1555)
AT A MINIMUM, such….. however, is inevitable
NPT regime lacks consensus over fuel cycle tech-risking nuclear breakouts. The plan directs the conversation towards
international fuel bank.
Dupuis March 7th 2008 (Matt, NTI, “An International Fuel Bank for Nuclear Power”, http://www.atlanticcommunity.
org/index/Open_Think_Tank_ Article/An_International_Fuel_ Bank_for_Nuclear_Power)
The challenge of….. further production of fissile material.
US ratification causes all of the dominos to fall

McGrath July 8th 2009 (Keegan, Research Associate Monterary Institute for International Studies, James Martin
Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, “Battle Lines Being Drawn in the CTBT Debate: an Analysis of the Strategic
Posture Commission's Arguments against U.S. Ratification” http://www.nti.org/e_research/ e3_us_ratification.html)
Although maintaining that… entry into force requirements
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Kansas State Mendenhall/Ziegler (Bombers) [Travis]
Kentucky Doubles - Stratcom Adv
Stratcom adv
Tech expertise and budget constraints due to nuke weapons infrastructure stops stratcom from pursuing space and
cyber war threats
Stanley foundation 2008 “The Stanley Foundation:Policy Dialogue Brief: US nuclear weapons policy and arms control”
Maxims news 6/24/08
Participants speculated that military…resist nuclear arms cuts
Plan saves tons of money for stratcom maintaining ballistic missiles is most expensive
NTI 2008 “The costs of US nuclear weapons”
The costs of U.S. nuclear weapons…percent of the total ($3.2 trillion)
Stratcom lacks infrast to fight cyberwar protection ensures econ decline

Tom Rinne 5/9/09 “Stratcom and the Domination of cyber space”
With a simple go ahead… no timeline has been sent
Cyber terrorist gain control and start offensive war

Jason Fritz “Hacking nuclear command and control” July 24 2009
This research has shown… shutting down key infrastructure.
Cyberterror is apocalyptic
Noam Chomsky “Failed States the abuse of power and the assault on democracy” pg 15-16
More ominously the seizure… that could be apocalyptic
No risk of offense us has abil to atk do not have defense capabilities

Todd Fluhr 2005 “US military elite hacker crew”
To better understand the secret… Berg sparked a…
Scen 2 Intel Gathering

Stratcom space intelligence are key to us hard power through intel gathering
US Strategic Command 2004 “Space Missions”
Space assets today are more… pinpoint their positions.
Heg collapse leads to wars and terror

Niall Ferguson “The end of power without American hegemony the world would likely return to the dark ages” WSJ
2004
Waning empires, religious rivals… careful what you wish for
No balancing from EU
Niall Ferguson “Colossus: The Price of America’s Empire” 2004 pg 256-257
The conclusion of this chapter… and perhaps unattainable ambition
Asteroids
Asteroid attack is coming and causes global extinction
Al Globus “Asteroid Shield” Lifeboat foundation 2006
In 1908 a small asteroid… will then miss earth
700 asteroids heading for us

Niel Boyce NPR “NASA report on Asteroids suggests nuclear option”
BOYCE: NASA has found about 700… another telescope in space
Even if not extinction causes nuclear winter and global wars

All Experts 2009 “Asteroid Deflection strategies”
Asteroid deflection strategies are methods… attack and returned fire.
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STRATCOM is taking lead in asteroid prevention

US Strategic Command “Space Missions” 2004
Space force application encompasses… high cost high risk conflicts.
STRATOm lacks funding and focus for planning to take on the mission
Lt Col Peter Garretson USAF 2007 “Potential DOD Roles”
There are many adequacy and.. better understand one anothers roles.
STRATCOM is the best actor to prevent asteroids can mobilize international community must take the lead
Since there are no US assigned… the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
No other agency can fill in asteroids are coming

The first and most important… solid planetary defense plan.
Gonzaga Intel
The START follow-on will inevitably pass, its just a question of the terms
Burgess Laird, national security analyst, July 21, 2009
(Carnegie Council, A Guide to the Challenges Facing President Obama's Nuclear Abolition Agenda,
http://www.cceia.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0025.html, CMH)
So, let's begin with … were even being met.
START will only reduce delivery systems to 1000 even though Moscow is pushing for tighter delivery vehicle
restrictions
Laird 2009
Burgess, national security analyst, July 21st, Carnegie Council, “A Guide to the Challenges Facing President Obama's
Nuclear Abolition Agenda”, http://www.cceia.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0025.html
It would be reasonable … likely to agree to this condition.
Obama will enforce provisionally if the Senate refuses to ratify

ABC News 2009
July 5th, Jake Tapper, “US-Russian Arms Negotiators “Under the Gun” Might Temporarily Bypass Senate Ratification
for Treaty”, http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/07/us-russian-arms-negotiators-under-the-gun-might-
temporarily-bypass-senate-ratification-for-treaty.html
With the clock running out … understand it, that would require Duma approval.”
The military will respond to the START follow-on by transitioning delivery vehicles to precision-guided conventional
weapons
Miasnikov 2009
Yevgeniy, Senior Research Scientist at the Moscow Centre for Arms Control, International Commission on Nuclear
Non-proliferation and Disarmament, 7/6, “LONG-RANGE PRECISION-GUIDED CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS:
IMPLICATIONS FOR STRATEGIC BALANCE, ARMS CONTROL AND NON-PROLIFERATION”,
http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Miasnikov_Long_Range_Missiles.doc
Decisions taken by the … delivery vehicles for precision-guided weapons.
Scenario 1 is ballistic missiles:
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Investments in precision conventional weaponry will cause minor conflicts to escalate to global nuclear war by
destabilizing the global deterrence balance
Lichterman 2007
Andrew, lawyer and policy analyst for the Western States Legal Foundation, April 7th, Disarmament Activist, “Next
generation strategic weapons and the possibility of arms races to come”,
http://disarmamentactivist.org/2007/04/07/next-generation-strategic-weapons-and-the-possibility-of-arms-races-to-
come/
It should be noted in this context that …, speech at Air Warfare Symposium - Orlando, Florida, February 18, 2005
The nuclear and non-nuclear weapons that exist today have the capability to destroy civilization in a single day – the
ONLY hope of avoiding this catastrophe is reducing ballistic missiles
Lichterman 2007
Andrew, lawyer and policy analyst for the Western States Legal Foundation, April 7th, Disarmament Activist, “Next
generation strategic weapons and the possibility of arms races to come”,
http://disarmamentactivist.org/2007/04/07/next-generation-strategic-weapons-and-the-possibility-of-arms-races-to-
come/
Those in power in the United States … test ban could be explored
Scenario 2 is Global Strike Force

Conventional Global Strike is going to start operations in October using currently nuclear delivery vehicles for non-
nuclear precision guided weapons
NTI 2009
Elaine M. Grossman, April 27th, “New U.S. Global Strike Command to Juggle Nuclear, Conventional Missions”,
http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090427_2483.php
Currently, two different Air Force commands … under the new command's purview, as well.
Prompt global strike force lowers the threshold for military intervention and escalates to GNW because of
misperception
Boese 2008
June, Wade, Arms Control Association, “Russia Wants Limits on Prompt Global Strike”,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_06/GlobalStrike
Current U.S. efforts to develop long-range … nuclear missiles, to minimize possible misperceptions. (See ACT, May
2006 .)
Global strike force’s primary function is warfighting – the US will pre-emptively attack any potential adversaries if
precision guided conventional weapons are developed
FAS 2006
Federation of American Scientists, March 15th, Hans M. Kristensen, “Global Strike A Chronology of the Pentagon’s
New Offensive Strike Plan”, http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/GlobalStrikeReport.pdf
It is important to understand that the … about warfighting rather than deterrence.
Global Conventional Strike Force causes accidental nuclear war with Russia and will not act successfully since US
intelligence is bad
Pavel Podvig, Stanford University 2006
“Russia and the Prompt Global Strike Plan” PONARS Policy Memo No. 417
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/pm_0417.pdf
Serious questions exist about the … ICBMs or SLBMs to be used in an actual combat situation.
KINETIC WEAPONS – ballistic missiles are the only vehicle we have to deliver kinetic weapons
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2007
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“A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on Nuclear Weapons Alert, Dismantlements and Reductions”
http://lcnp.org/disarmament/kristensen-rebuttal_oct07.pdf
Global Strike incorporates … Global Strike kinetic weapons.
These kinetic weapons give us ASAT abilities

Jeremy Hsu 2008
“Satellite Kill would prove US capability” http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/080220-tw-satellite-
shootdown.html
The looming U.S. Navy … chances at "less than 50-50."
ASATS make war nuclear war more likely and prevents de-escalation of any conflict
Michael Krepon August 27, 2009
ASAT TESTBANS - http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2444/asat-test-bans
Daedalus published two volumes … can support such a ban.”
PREEMPTIVE WAR _ Ballistic Missiles in the global strike force plan will cause nuclear war when deployed
Popular Mechanics 2007
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military_law/4203874.html?page=3 “Hypersonic Cruise Missile:
America's New Global Strike Weapon”
Hypersonic Cruise Missile: America's New Global … them as a weapon that does not make the impact zone
uninhabitable.
Advantage 2 – Russian Politics

In the recent Russia-US summit Obama praised Medvedev for not attempting to bully the US, driving a wedge
between he and Putin – Medvedev’s failure to get further reductions undermines his political standing
Professor Stephen Blank, the U.S. Army War College, July 10th 2009
http://www.law.msu.edu/news/2009//BeanRussiaProfileWeekly.html MSU FACULTY IN THE NEWS
I don't think that Obama is following … interference was both necessary and desirable.
Specifically - The Russian Prime minister has asked for deeper reductions in US delivery vehicles to appease fellow
Russian politicians – the plan would be a win for Medvedev
Guy Faulconbridge May 3, 2009

“Russia Wants US to Limit Delivery Vehicles” http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-38296020090302?
pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 REUTERS
Russia wants the United States to agree to … have really much less than is allowed by the current agreement."
And the plan appeases the Russian Military who is currently upset
Michael Fletcher July 7 2009
WASHINGTON POST “U.S. and Russia to Reduce Arsenals Obama, Medvedev Discuss Cooperation On Missile
Defense”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/06/AR2009070600784.html
But the two leaders were unable to resolve a … even if armed with non-nuclear warheads.
SCENARIO I – INTERNAL DEMOCRACY

Medvedev is not yet strong enough to challenge Putin – he wishes to move away from authoritarianism
Ethan S. Burger, Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, July 10 2009
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http://www.law.msu.edu/news/2009//BeanRussiaProfileWeekly.html “Is Obama Wading Into Russian Politics?” MSU

LAW FACULTY IN THE NEWS
There is a reasonable possibility … have exercised power in Moscow in since 2004.
Russian public follows international events – they can help domestic strength
Ethan S. Burger, Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C: July 10 2009
http://www.law.msu.edu/news/2009//BeanRussiaProfileWeekly.html MSU FACULTY IN THE NEWS
Russian politics do not …demonstrates his realism.
Putin control of Medvedev is causing Russia to move down a path of internal autocracy
Cathy Youg April 2009
http://www.reason.com/news/show/131970.html REASON MAGAZINE “Unclenching the Fist
U.S.-Russian relations in the age of Obama”
There are plenty of signs that Russia … working with, say, Amnesty International.
This is generating domestic unrest in Russia causing civil war resulting in a totalitarian take-over and war in the
Caucuses

In December, Russia heard the first rumblings … into chaos or a totalitarian takeover.
Russian civil war leads to nuclear war with the US

Steven R. David, Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs Jan 1999
Should Russia succumb to internal war, the … that would follow a Russian civil war.
Extinction
Yesin, Colonel General Vladimir Senior Vice President of the Russian Academy of the Problems of Security, Defense,
and Law. “WILL AMERICA FIGHT RUSSIA?;”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN July 2007
Yesin: Should the Russian-American …of what weapons will be used in the first phase.
Conflict in the Caucuses could go nuclear even if not with the US

Yuri Fedorov 2002
http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/federov.htm “No First Use of Nuclear Weapons”
The major conclusion is that …or to recognize the defeat.
Russian totalitarianism results in mass genocide

Alexander Dugin, political scientist, 2006
(“RUSSIA'S FUTURE: A UNITARY STATE OR AN ETHNO-FEDERATION?” Translated by Denis Shcherbakov
Rossiia, No. 4, February ) Lexis
Experts and political scientists … ethnic groups, or Eurasian federalism.
Voting negative means moral responsibility for genocide - refusal to action in the face of genocide, even as individuals,
is complicity and allows atrocities to continue
Vetlesen 00
Arne Johan, Philosophy@Oslo, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 37, No. 4 pp. 530 "Genocide: A Case for the
Responsibility of the Bystander"
The third lesson is that the failure to act … was the case in Rwanda and in Bosnia alike.
Scenario II – Russian Expansionism
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Fear of American aggression is used to justify domestic and foreign Russian aggression

It could be that … many of its neighbors join the alliance.
Independently further Russian military aggression causes nuclear war over Poland
WORLD PRESS 2008
http://endofcapitalism.com/2008/08/26/imperialism%E2%80%99s-chess-board-war-in-the-caucuses-and-the-fall-of-
pax-americana/ “Imperialism’s Chess Board: War in the Caucuses and the Fall of Pax Americana”
Poland: a Nuclear War Flashpoint U.S. …and the U.S. seem perfectly willing to risk provoking one.
Expansionist Russia makes all your impacts inevitable

Nyquist 2K6
(J.R., analyst with Financial Sense, “Refusing to face reality, June 23, pg.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2006/0623.html, accessed 6/30/06, AJJ)
Behind Washington’s infighting there … who already possess untold numbers of WMDs
Medvedev is attempting to Break from Putin now to liberalize the economy and stop corruption of big state.corporate
ventures
Sarahngu 9/11/2009
“Russian President Distancing Himself from Putin” http://www.tothecenter.com/index.php?readmore=11156
Just a year into his office, President Dmitry … and "excessive government presence" in society and the economy.
These state-run corporate ventures are critical to funding the Russian mafia
Asa Dahlvik, Manchester Metropolitan University, May 8th 2003
http://www.mv.helsinki.fi/dahlvik/corruptionrussia.html, "Corruption in Russia Since 1990", date accessed 8/27/2004
Major problems in Russian organized ... over 50% of the Russian economy in GDP terms. ( Danks, p.12)
the Mafia will start a superpower war with the United States – especially if Putin is in control
Ryan Mauro, former geopolitical analyst for Tactical Defense Concepts, February 9th 2004
http://www.worldthreats.com/russia_former_ussr/Russias%20Anti-American%20Destiny.htm, "Russia's Anti-American
Destiny", date accessed 8/26/2004
The Russian free market system … Russia is willing to risk war to minimize that threat.
Russian Mafia causes biological and nuclear weapons attack in the hands of terrorists
Col. Stanislav Lunev, highest-ranking Soviet military intelligence officer ever to defect from Russia, 2002
date accessed 8/26/2002, http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/3/19/212847.shtml, "Russian Mafia has
Kremlin Ties"
We know that since the end … Americans and other people.
TERRORISM ATTACK RESULTS IN EXTINCTION

Yonah Alexander; Senior Fellow and Director of the International Center for Terrorism Studies, 2/28/2002 (The
University of Wisconsin Press; Terrorism in the 21st Century; http://www.wisc.edu/wisconsinpress/terrorism.html)
The September 11, 2001 attacks in the … potential challenge to the very survival of civilization.
Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate 700 ballistic missiles that can be equipped with nuclear
warheads.
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Liberty Atkins/Bass (Counterforce) [Logan]
Liberty AB
Richmond Round 1
v Harvard SS
2AC
Case - Heg
‘Heg bad’ isn’t responsive – it speaks to a type and not a trait of power – unipolarity is distinct
Ikenberry et al, ‘9. “Unipolarity, State Behavior, and Systemic Consequences,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1,
January.
Scholars use the term … and organizational-institutional “competence

No First Use CP
1. Infrastructure targeting doesn’t require high alert status
Kristensen et al, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Norris, senior
research associate with the Natural Resources Defense Council, and Oelrich, Acting President of the Federation of
American Scientists, 09
(Hans M, Robert S, Ivan, April Occasional Paper No. 7, Federation Of American Scientists & The Natural Resources
Defense Council, “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating
Nuclear Weapons”,
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf) asa
The practice of maintaining … the number of weapons.
Damage Limitation
1. Infrastructure targeting solves for deterrence - It makes it too expensive economically and militarily to attack
Nuclear Weapons”,
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf) RKB
The targeting scheme offered … allies with nuclear weapons.
2. Status quo nuclear deterrence is failing- our policies blur the lines between nuclear and conventional weapon use
Nuclear Weapons”,
The deterrence challenge … to the deterrence equation.
3. Counterforce targeting is the problem- the US leads in conventional deterrence, but other countries retaliate against
counterforce policies
Steve Fetter, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and an affiliate of the Project on
Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Charles Glasser,
Former Research Fellow at the International Security Program Fall 2005
(International Security, volume 30, issue 2, pages 84-126, “Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear Posture
Review's New Missions") RKB
We examine three types of …against the United States or its allies.
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1. Executive orders which are covered by presidential role allow presidents to implement policies without spending
political capital trying to persuade congress.
Mayer, professor of political science at University of Wisconsin Madison, and Price, teaching assistant in political
science at University of Wisconsin Madison, 2002
[Kenneth and Kevin, Presidential Studies Quarterly, June 1]
By using their formal powers, … the issuance of executive orders.
2. XO isn’t publically perceived - Even the most informed citizens don’t pay attention to executive orders
Cooper, Professor of Liberal Arts at University of Vermont, 99
(Phillip Federal News Service , October 28, l/n)
Few Americans, even those … with the stroke of a pen.
3. Obama isn’t using political capital for health care-Congress has all the power
The Washington Times September 8, 2009
(Joseph Curl, Democrats talk openly about midterm losses, LN)jap
Many analysts and Democratic … allegation against the plan.
4. No Link – congress and the public don’t care about changes in U.S. strategic posture
Kirkpatrick, Wall Street Journal Deputy Editor, 7-11-09 (Melanie, “Why We Don't Want a Nuclear-Free World,” Wall
Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124726489588925407.html)
Mr. Schlesinger sees another … stalemate in expenditures."
5. Obama political capital will not pass health care-opposing crowd out
The Advertiser 9-17-09
(Us health reform vital for Obama, LN)jap
In the United States, President … out more reasoned voices.
6. No Impact—the global economy is resilient—geopolitical instability can’t derail it
Zakaria, 08 (Fareed, editor of Newsweek International, The Post American World, page 18)
Today's relative calm … at least a decade.
7. Economic decline doesn’t cause war-people see conflict as unaffordable

Deudney 97
(Daniel, Asooc Prof of Poly Sci @ John Hopkins, Flashpoints in Evinironmental Policymaking: Controversies in
Achieving Sustainability, p.303)
Second, even if economic … exacerbate the problem.
8. Other issues take Obama’s political capital away from Health care-Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan
Washington Post 8-30-09
(David S Broder, A Scary Season for Obama, LN)jap
He launched a series of … home, is increasingly unpopular.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Nuclear counterforce doctrine is a relic of the Cold War- it’s the foundation of an outdated nuclear policy that won’t be
changed
Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Norris, senior
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Nuclear Weapons”,
To realize President Barack Obama’s vision of …with different guidance and directives.
Plan:
The United States Federal Government should restrict nuclear targeting to infrastructure targeting.
Contention Two: China
Counterforce kills US/China relations- unbalances the US/China relationship- MAD, deterrence and economic ties are
irrelevant, rivalry will escalate to war with China
Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Notre Dame and Press, Associate Professor of Government at
Dartmouth, 2007
(Keir A. and Daryl G. “Superiority complex” in The Atlantic Monthly July/August,
http://www.nuclearweaponslaw.com/Superiority_Complex_article.pdf)asa
In the coming years, as China’s …important – than in the Sino-U.S. relationship
AND- Counterforce is spurring nuclear bunker buster research

David S. McDonough, a PhD candidate in political science and a Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Foreign Policy
Studies at Dalhousie University, 3-4-2009
(March 4, “Strategic Datalink”,
http://www.canadianinternationalcouncil.org/download/resourcece/archives/strategicd~2/sd_no8_200)asa
Despite the move towards capability-based … offensive strike leg of the New Triad.
This destroys US-China relations making war more likely

Marvin, Presidential Management Fellow at Firstwatch International, 2004
(Brett, “Assessing the International Response to the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator,” Center for Contemporary
Conflict, http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/si/si_3_6/si_3_6_mab01.pdf) JBA
By declaring its doctrine of preemption and … and deploying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles
(MIRVs).
US-China war sucks in Russia, India, and Pakistan and ends in extinction
Straits Times 00 Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan, June 25 LEXIS
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war … see the destruction of civilisation.
Contention three: Russia
Counterforce makes US-Russia tensions inevitable- leads to massive Russian weapons buildup
Nuclear Weapons”,
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Changes in the Russian and Chinese nuclear forces would not … increase in the threat to the United States.
This weapons buildup cause massive destruction, the launch of Russian missiles, and the theft or diversion of nuclear
weapons to hostiles starting a war with Russia
Nuclear Weapons”,
While vulnerability could increase in the unlikely near-term case of a … or diversion to terrorists.
We’ll impact both:
Full scale nuclear war with Russia causes extinction

Bostrom, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, 2002
(Nick, Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”,
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html <http://www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html> )
The US and Russia still have huge stockpiles … than other animal species.
And, nuclear terrorist attack leads to global nuclear war and extinction
Sid-Ahmed, Political Analyst, 04
(Mohamed, “Extinction!,” Al-Ahram Weekly, 8-26-04, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
<http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm> )
What would be the consequences … whole planet, we will all be losers.
Contention Four: Targeting Doctrine
Scenario One:
Counterforce leads to a more aggressive US international posture that causes other countries to nuclear strike us
Fetter, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and Glasser, Former Research Fellow at the
International Security Program 2005
(Steve and Charles, Fetter, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and an affiliate of the
Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs International
Security, volume 30, issue 2, pages 84-126, “Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear Posture Review's New
Missions") asa
Although U.S. damage-limitation capabilities … because it already enjoys a large advantage in resolve.
In retaliation against a first strike, Counterforce targets command and control targets making escalation control
impossible, no one will be able to call it off until the US is destroyed, all of your impacts assume escalation that the
plan solves
Feiveson, Senior Research Policy Scientist, et al, 99
(Harold, Woodrow Wilson School, “The Nuclear Turning Point: A blueprint for deep cuts and de-alerting of nuclear
weapons”. Brookings Institutional press, pg 51)asa
Targeting command and control and political … States had already been destroyed. Leadership should be targeted
last, if at all.
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Scenario Two:
Counterforce is a throwback to Cold War worst-case thinking- the United States plans for a game-theory style
apocalyptic attack
Nuclear Weapons”,
The deterrence challenge of today is quite … outside geopolitical context or triggering event.
This makes nuclear conflict inevitable- planning for a worst case scenario makes the threshold for retaliation lower
making war inevitable
Nancy Kanwisher, professor at UC Berkeley, 1989
(“Cognitive Heuristics and American Security Policy” Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 33 No. 4, JSTOR)
Consideration of particular war-fighting scenarios has long …became necessary again, the problem of psychological
distortions would resurface.
Contention Five: Solvency
Infrastructure targeting solves for deterrence in its purest form- guaranteeing pain if another country attacks. It makes it
too expensive economically and militarily to attack
Nuclear Weapons”,
The targeting scheme offered here is for the transitional minimal deterrence mission on the path toward zero. … an
adversary unwisely attacks the United States or its allies with nuclear weapons.
Nuclear counterforce is never in the best interest of the US

Fetter, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and Glasser, Former Research Fellow at the
International Security Program 2005
(Steve and Charles, Fetter, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and an affiliate of the
Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs International
Security, volume 30, issue 2, pages 84-126, “Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear Posture Review's New
Missions") asa
Other roles for nuclear counterforce are less likely to increase U.S. … be designed to have little impact on the breadth
or assertiveness of U.S. foreign policy and therefore would not increase the probability of nuclear war.
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Mary Washington Kallmyer/Susko (ICBMs) [Arif]
Mary Washington KS
Harvard
Round 5 - Aff vs. Emory IW
AT: Deterrence Disad
ICBM focus trades-off with bomber focus

Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 4/27/2009
["New U.S. Global Strike Command to Juggle Nuclear, Conventional Missions,"
U.S. Air Force AND

forces, the task force stated.
Bombers key to global deterrence and power projection

Carpenter, Maj. General, 6/3/2009
[Floyd, "SUBJECT: Air Force Strategic Programs," Congressional testimony, http://armed-
services.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/June/Carpenter%2006-03-09.pdf, 10/25]
Chairman Nelson, Ranking Member VitterAND

I look forward to your questions.
Link Non-unique – ICBMs are not credible now – not perceived as usable
Faunda, USAF Major, Maxwell-Gunter Air Force Base Ranking Officer, Air Force University Executive Officer Aid,
2009
[Mike, “America‘s Last ICBM: Why now is the best time to eliminate land-based ICBMs,” The Wright Stuff,
http://www.au.af.mil/au/aunews/ - need to get a subsciprtion to access article, access 9/13]
An equally, if not moreAND

strike conducted by a state actor.
NMD triggers the link

David, Former US Assistant Defens Secretary for WMD, and Kirkpatrick, Former WSJ Deputy Editor, 9/17/2009
[Jack, Melanie, "A New Nuclear-Arms Race,"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574419173653298610.html?mod=googlenews_wsj]
Call it a shot heard round AND

nuclear deterrent affords are plainly diminished.
Turn – the dyad solves AND deterrence collapse inevitable in squo because of defense cuts
2009
Rather than maintaining a costly and AND

made without sacrificing capabilities or security.
6. Deterrence inevitable – even a small arsenal is sufficient for deterrence and conventional deterrence is more
effective
Glaser, U Chicago Public Policy Studies School Deputy Dean and Professor, and Fetter, UMD Public Policy Dean and
Professor, 2005
[Charles, Steve, "Counterforce Revisited," International Security 30.2 ]
We expect that the U.AND

help to solve this credibility problem.
Recent arms developments solve – SLBMs are just as accurate as ICBMs now
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Grossman, Global Security Newswire staff writer, 10/1/2009

[Elaine, "U.S. Sea-Based Missiles Seen as "Core" Nukes, Maybe at ICBM Expense,"
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20091001_4226.php, 10/22]
"The submarines got bigger, AND

, from land-based missiles."
No risk of Russian aggression- economic weakness

Ferguson, Harvard economic historian, 2/23/9
[Niall, interview with Heather Scoffield, Globe and Mail, "There will be blood,"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090223.wferguson0223/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home/?
pageRequested=all [accessed 3/26/9]
The question is whether the general AND

help if they do another Georgia.”
Kentucky
Octos - Aff vs. Emory GJ
AT: CMR
CMR down now – McChrystal circumventing Obama

Cohen, Senior Research Fellow in the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, 10/1/2009
(Michael, “Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Civil Military Relations Version,”
http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2009/10/afghanistan-mission-creep-watch-the-civil-military-relations-version.html)
It seems that a lot of AND
the Obama Administration to accept them.
Obama rejected the first draft of the NPR and is now fighting the Pentagon and the Congress. (And some cuts are
inevitable.)
Borger, diplomacy editor of the Guardian, 9/23/09
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2009/sep/23/obama-nuclear-unitednations)
Obama has just said some striking AND
ratified. These are strong words.
No link – Pro-nuclear bureaucrats are dead

Murdock, CSIS Senior Advisor, March 2008
[Clark, "The Department of Defense and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st Century,”
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080305-murdock-nuclearmission.pdf]
In the March/April 2006 AND

an indicator of current strategic priorities.
Afghanistan leak is the biggest CMR challenge possible – non-unique

Feaver, professor of political science at Duke University, 9/21/2009
(Peter, “Woodward Discloses Troops Needed,” http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113022583)
The Obama Administration has been Woodwarded AND
. This is significant and serious.
This overwhelms the plan – senior officials are pissed

The Telegraph 10/5/2009
(“Barack Obama furious at General Stanley McChrystal speech on Afghanistan,”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6259582/Barack-Obama-furious-at-
General-Stanley-McChrystal-speech-on-Afghanistan.html#article)
Bruce Ackerman, an expert on AND
once since his appointment in June.
No link and alt causes – generals oppose things like de-alert, not the plan
Rosenbaum, Slate staff writer, 8/21/2009
[Ron, "Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama's Dream of Zero?," http://www.slate.com/id/2225817/pagenum/all/, 9/16]
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But there have been recent indications AND

us vulnerable to accidental nuclear war.
The dyad solves AND CMR collapse inevitable in squo because of defense cuts
2009
Rather than maintaining a costly and AND

made without sacrificing capabilities or security.
Doubles - Aff vs. Cal GW
Some 2AC evidence:

Afghan politics
Republicans are attacking Obama on foreign policy now
Webber, CQ staff writer, 9/22/2009
[Caitlin, "Conservatives Cast Obama as ‘Reluctant, Timid’," http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-
000003207575, 9/25]
In a preview of campaign refrains AND

brought to the Senate in 1999.
Winners win – political leadership in tough fights builds capital

Singer, My Direct Democracy editor, 9
(Jonathan, My Direct Democracy, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital”, 3-3-9,
http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428, accessed 7-8-9, AFB)
From the latest NBC News-AND

the American public as a result.
No impactAfghanistan won’t collapse

CNN, 10-1, 2009, (“Obama adviser: Afghanistan in no immediate danger of falling”)
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/10/04/us.afghanistan/
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- There AND

-- imminent danger -- of falling."
Chicago Olympics loss

Leicester, writer for the Associated Press, 10/2/09
(John, “Rio de Janeiro wins right to host 2016 Olympics,”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hH9JJ1DfoPLIegRa3XdI6RlJaIHAD9B32VJO3)
Obama had held out the enticing AND
political capital on the bid backfired.
Obama is spending all of his capital on healthcare and it won’t come back for other agenda items
Porter, Slant staff writer, 9/22/2009
[Ethan, "Obama’s political capital problem," http://trueslant.com/ethanporter/2009/09/22/obamas-political-capital-
problem/, 9/25]
What will happen to President Obama AND

can be perilously short-lived.
Healthcare, not the plan, determines Obama’s Afghanistan strategy

Klein, TIME Staff writer, 9/24/2009
[Joe, "Obama's Foreign Policy Needs a Domestic Boost,"
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1925834,00.html, 9/25]
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The Afghan election mess will probably AND

the military, or against it.
Link cards below
Don’t Decommission CP/Disads
Perm do cp – the CP doesn’t compete because putting warheads in storage still reduces them from the arsenal
Los Alamos National Laboratory 8
(http://www.lanl.gov/natlsecurity/nuclear/stockpile/, accessed 9-7-9)
The stockpile, also called the nuclear arsenal, refers to a country's supply of readily available nuclear weapons. The
term nuclear weapons refers to the explosive warheads and the bombs and missiles that can deliver them to enemy
targets.
Implementing a policy of verifiable dismantlement guarantees only the plan solves this signal – status quo reductions
won’t solve credibility
Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment VP, Non-Proliferation Program Director, CFR US Nuclear Policy Task Force
Member, International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Adviser, and Acton, Carnegie
Endowment Non-Proliferation Program Associate, Kings College Science and Security Studies Centre, Former
member of nuclear dismantlement programs (UK-Norway Dialogue, Verification Research, Training and Information
Centre (VERTIC)), February 2009
[George, James“Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=22748&prog=zgp&proj=znpp]
iv. Next steps: demonstrating AND
Your internal link is disproved –t ons of material that is not begin dismantled now
Eisler, USA Today, 09
(Peter, “U.S. nuke-disposal logjam to grow; Obama’s plan to cut arsenal will add to 15-year backlog”, USA Today, May
13, p. 1A)
WASHINGTON -- President Obama plans deep AND

rates have risen sharply since 2006.
No net-benefits the US currently does decommission some nuclear weapons

Kristensen, FAS Nuclear Information Project Director, Norris, NRDC Nuclear Program Senior Research Associate, and
Oelrich, FAS Strategic Security Programs VP, April 2009
[Hans, Robert, Ivan, "From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence,"
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf]
Reductions implemented by the George WAND

in warheads that were already inactive.
CTBT / decommission da
CTBT won’t pass
Butler, AP Staff writer, 9/3/2009
[Desmond, "Obama facing hurdles to nuclear disarmament goals,"
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gOqXb1Q8Q6zN19utO6Z2b-oaXKegD9AG3CM00, 9/16/9]
If the Senate doesn't ratify itAND

, and key Republicans remain skeptical.
Arms reductions leads to support for CTBT

Butler, AP Staff writer, 9/3/2009
[Desmond, "Obama facing hurdles to nuclear disarmament goals,"
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gOqXb1Q8Q6zN19utO6Z2b-oaXKegD9AG3CM00, 9/16/9]
"I think they are dead AND

treaty will give the issue momentum.
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Plan is sufficient to boost credibility and leads to the CTBT

Daalder, Brookings Institute Senior Fellow, and Lodal, US Atlantic Council Former President, Former White House and
Defense Department Official (to Nixon, Ford, Clinton), 2008
[Ivo, Jan, Foreign Affairs, "The Logic of Zero," Vol. 87, Issue 6]
SUCH A DRAMATIC change in UAND

all nuclear weapons had been eliminated.
Stockpile management increases now

Foreign Policy, staff writer, 9/15/2009
["Tauscher: Sorry, Republicans: no return of the Reliable Replacement Warhead,"
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/15/tauscher_sorry_republicans_no_return_of_the_reliable_replaceme
nt_warhead, 9/16]
The House's version of the bill AND

about stockpile management," she declared.
No solvency – signal is negligible

David, former deputy assistant secretary of defense, ‘09
[Jack, There's No Reason for a Nuclear Test Ban, Wall Street Journal, February 21, Factiva]
Treaty proponents argue that U.AND
Iran to respect a testing ban?
NPR CP
CP doesn’t solve
A. Bureaucracy checks implementation of the plan
Nolan, Pittsburg University International Affairs Professor, Georgetown University Diplomacy Program Director, and
Holmes, US Naval War College Associate Strategy Professor, UGA International Trade and Security Center Senior
Fellow, April 2008
[Janne, James, "The Bureaucracy of Deterrence," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Proquest]
As Max Weber might have predictedAND

the U.S. military.
Denied strong presidential support, many of Clinton’s foreign policy appointees turned to other challenges looming on
the horizon when the effort to do away with nuclear orthodoxy proved too arduous. They ceded the ground to military
officers and career Defense Department officials.
B. Only executive implementation solves – recommending the plan is insufficient

Loukianova, Montery Institute for International Studies Center for Nonprolif Studies, 8/19/2009
[Anya, "The Nuclear Posture Review Debate,"
http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_nuclear_posture_review_debate.html#fnB8, access 9/3]
In light of these intricacies, AND

," says Jeffrey Lewis .[20]
perm do cp
( ) Resolution says “should,” not “shall” – means it’s not unconditional

Atlas Collaboration, 1999, “Use of shall, should, may can,” http://rd13doc.cern.ch/Atlas/DaqSoft/sde/inspect/shall.html
'shall' describes something that is AND

nothing of defining what 'thoroughly' means).
( ) Should means “ought to” – we only have to defend the desirability of the plan, not its certainty
American Heritage, 2009, “should,” http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/should
Like the rules governing the AND
at if, rather, shall.
5. Counterplan is normal means
Skypek, Defense Analyst, 3/3/2009
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[Thomas, "thinking about the unthinkable: priorities for the upcoming nuclear posture review," lexis]
The 2009 NPR will be the AND

weapons employment will also be addressed.
Round 6 - Aff vs. Cal GP
Only through focusing on weapons can we developn the technical language to influence nuclear policy – rejecting
maintstream weapon expertise makes political engagement impossible
Dr. Glenn. W. Hawkes, Executive Director, Parents, Teachers & Students for Social Responsibility, 1987
[Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, “Sex, power, and nuclear language,” Sept., v43, no.7, pg. 59-60]
As an activist, howeverAND
clout needed to change national policy.
AND – this education spillsover – the plan focus on nuanced and complex policy is key to transform current nuclear
politics
Douglas Shaw, GWU Elliott School of Int’l Affairs Associate Dean, 2009
[“Reintroducing arms control to higher education”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 5-26-09,
http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/reintroducing-arms-control-to-higher-education]
The first set of tensions involves AND

, goal for higher education institutions.
Nuclear focus is good – Our use of nuclear fear and discourse is necessary to check extinction- it provides the
consciousness to ensure peace in the face of nuclear war and worse
JAH Futterman, former US Nuclear Weapons Scientist, 1994
[“Obscenity and Peace: Meditations on the Morality of Nuclear Weapons Work,”
http://www.dogchurch.org/scriptorium/nuke.html ]
But the inhibitory effect of reliable AND

urgency that it might otherwise lack.
AND – it motivates political action

Pittock, Atmospheric Research Scientist, published over 200 articles, Climate Impact Group Chair, CSIRO Senior
Scientist, Australian Public Service Medal Winner, 1984
[Barrie, "Comment on Brian Martin's 'Exinction Politics,' http://www.uow.edu.au/~bmartin/pubs/84sanap.pdf access 9/5]
It is difficult to assess AND
to how we view nuclear weapons.
Acting on nuclear weapons is essential - it shifts military thinking, has a huge symbolic value, and insures against
deterrence failure.
Douglas P. Lackey, Baruch Philosophy Professor, 1990
[American Political Science Review, Review of The Nuclear Seduction, v84, n4, pg. 1456-1457]
One can admire the historical narrative AND

arsenal that will do the job).
perm is the best way to solve for better politics while preventing global violence
Yost, Naval Postgraduate School Associate Professor, Former DOD Official, Woodrow Wilson International Center
Security Studies Fellow, John Hopkins Visiting Scholar, May 2007
[David, “Analysing international nuclear order,” Int'l Affairs, 83.3, access 9/3]
The challenges of constructing a safer AND

increase the risk of nuclear war.
nukes do not create apartheid - the kritik’s idea of nuclear equality destroys accountability – the mass impact of
nuclear weapons outweighs
Biswas, Whitman College Politics Professor, December 2001
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[Shampa, ""Nuclear apartheid" as political position: race as a postcolonial resource?," Alternatives 26.4]
At one level, as Partha AND
to undemocratic governance. (60)
Round 3 - Aff vs. Emory IW
Politics Link Turns
Obama spin guarantees the plan is popular

Nukes of Hazard, 5/21/2009, "Poll Shows Support for Obama’s Nuke Policies, But...,"
http://www.nukesofhazardblog.com/story/2009/5/21/111659/733
A controlled experiment suggests that invoking AND

states like North Korea and Iran.
Winners win – political leadership in tough fights builds capital

Singer, My Direct Democracy editor, 9
(Jonathan, My Direct Democracy, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital”, 3-3-9,
http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428, accessed 7-8-9, AFB)
From the latest NBC News-AND

the American public as a result.
Pro-nuclear constituencies are gone – Congress has an allergy to pro-nuclear positions

Murdock, CSIS Senior Advisor, March 2008
[Clark, "The Department of Defense and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st Century,”
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080305-murdock-nuclearmission.pdf]
The decay of the U.AND

anti-nuclear song book.59
Turn – Plan has bipartisan support

Omestad, US news and world report staff writer, 1/15/2009
[Thomas, "Nuclear Weapons for All? The Risks of a New Scramble for the Bomb,"
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/world/2009/01/15/nuclear-weapons-for-all-the-risks-of-a-new-scramble-for-the-
bomb_print.htm, access 9/6]
But Obama will also find surprising AND

required to effectively address today's threats."
Case Debate - Prolif Bad
Prolif Not Stable

Power proliferating won’t be stable – making extinction inevitable – only plan reduces the risk of prolif
Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 9
(Dennis Ray, Yongin Campus - South Korea, Futures, December 2009, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction
of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race”, SECTION: Pg. 683 Vol. 41 No. 10 ISSN: 0016-3287)
What a precarious foundation of power AND of strategic weapons. [10]
Even if deterrence is successful 99% of the time, any risk of failure is unacceptable
Payne, National Institute for Public Policy President, DOD Forces Policy Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (2002-
2003), Missouri State Defense and Strategic Studies Grad. Dept. Head, Nuclear Strategy Forum Co-Chairman,
Comparative Strategy Editor-In-Chief, 2003
[Keith, "The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction,"
http://www.unm.edu/~gleasong/300/su2006/keith_payne_fallacies.pdf]
Noted British historian A.JAND viability of our great American democracy.
AT: No Accidents
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ICBM elimination is key to check accidents and effective non-prolif cred – they are not key to deterrence
Mackey, Ph.D., Retired US Army Liutenant Colonel, West Point Military History Assistant Professor, 2/11/2009
[Robert, "The Only Real "Existential Threat": A Sane Path for Reducing Nuclear Arsenals,"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-mackey/the-only-real-existential_b_165949.html, access 9/13/09]
The new administration, with the AND

, than an ICBM that cannot.
Land-based ICBMs cause crisis instability – highest risk of accidental launch and lack of survivability ensures high alert
posture used to escalate a conflict
Brooks, Vice President of the Center for Naval Analysis, START I Negotiator, Ambassador, Commanding Officer of
USS Whale 2001
[Linton, “Arms Control and the Future Sub Force”
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_11/future_subforce.html, access 9/12]
Predictability is a familiar term; AND , they are highly effective weapons.
Russia’s satellite system watching US ICBMs raises the risk of accidents

Mosher, et al, RAND Senior Policy Analyst, 2003
[David, "Beyond the Nuclear Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S-Russian Relations,"
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/index.html, access 9/13]
2. Russia’s early-warning AND launch- on-warning strategy.
AT: Conventional Wars

Proliferation leads to low-level conventional conflicts – nuclear escalation is inevitable
Sagan, Stanford University Political Science Professor, and Montgomery, Reed College Political Science Professor,
2009
[Scott, Alexander, "The Perils of Predicting Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution," 10.5, access 9/5]
Rauchhaus’s article—“Evaluating the Nuclear AND game of chicken with unpredictable consequences.
Turn - Plan is key to credibility that stops ballistic missile prolif

Pettis, Director of National Intelligence Senior System Engineer, Ph.D., Former Lockheed Missile and Space Chief
System Engineer, 2002
[Roy, "DO WE STILL NEED BALLISTIC MISSILES?," http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?
AD=ADA441621&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, access 9/15]
Finally, removing strategic ballistic missiles AND element in discouraging ballistic missile proliferation.
This is key to check global war and WMD conflict

Mistry, Cincinnati University Assistant Professor, 2003
[Dinshaw, "Beyond the MTCR," International Security, 27.4, acces 9/15]
1. Ballistic missiles provide rapid AND proliferation strengthens the WMD nonproliferation regime.
AT: Nuke war doesn’t cause extinction

Nuclear war leads to environmental collapse and extinction
Scientists for Global Responsibility, July 03, "Does Anybody Remember the Nuclear Winter," SGR Newsletter 27,
http://www.sgr.org.uk/climate/NuclearWinter_NL27.htm
Obviously, when a nuclear bomb AND the 3 billion years of evolution.
1AR
Asian ballistic arms races now
Gormley, Montery Institute Nonproliferation Studies Center Senior Fellow, September 2008
[Dennis, "The Risks and Challenges of a Cruise Missile Tipping Point,"
http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_missile_tipping_point.html, access 9/13]
Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, the AND
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. delegation in April 2007 that it
Ballistic Missile prolif leads to war and Asian conflict

Gormley, Montery Institute Nonproliferation Studies Center Senior Fellow, September 2008
[Dennis, "The Risks and Challenges of a Cruise Missile Tipping Point,"
http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_missile_tipping_point.html, access 9/13]
Though new weapons do not

down, if not entirely eliminating, the preemption option.
GSU Aff Disclosure
Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate its land-based intercontinental ballistic missile nuclear
warheads.
Contention One: Proliferation

The world is facing a cascade of fast proliferation – the massive US nuclear arsenal creates incentives to proliferate
and prevents effective non-proliferation – the result is the disintegration of global non-prolif norms causing global
conflict
Cirincione, Ploughshares President, Former Center for American Progress and Carnegie Endowment Nonproliferation
program Directors, Former House Armed Services Committee member, Georgetown University Foreign Service
Professor, CFR member, nonproliferation expert, 2007
[Joe, Bomb Scare, p. 105-8]
The longest-term, but AND first time in some twenty years.
Proliferation will be fast – action now is critical to reverse trends

Blechman, Stimson Center Co-Founder, Stimson Center Nuclear Disarm Distinguished Fellow, Ph.D., 9/29/2008
[Barry, "Nuclear Proliferation: Avoding a Pandemic," http://www.stimson.org/ Presidential_Inbox_2009/
BBlechman_Final_Format.pdf access 9/5]
There is serious risk that the AND world completely free of nuclear weapons.
Entrenched ongoing disputes among new nuclear powers means prolif will go nuclear – this raises the risk of accidents
and nuclear terror
Blechman, Stimson Center Co-Founder, Stimson Center Nuclear Disarm Distinguished Fellow, Ph.D., 9/29/2008
[Barry, "Nuclear Proliferation: Avoding a Pandemic," http://www.stimson.org/ Presidential_Inbox_2009/
BBlechman_Final_Format.pdf access 9/5]
The world has been spared the AND on reining in the nuclear danger.
Proliferation will be uneven causing destabilizing arms races and miscalc – new nuclear powers and escalation of
regional conflicts independently raise the risk of conflict
Sokolsi, Hoover Institute Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Executive Director, July 2009
[Henry, "Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd," http://www.hoover.org/ publications/policyreview/ 46390537.html#n11, access
8/27]
So far, the U.AND this, however, is inevitable.
Deterrence theory is incoherent – it can’t account for all of the factors that make human decision-making prone to error
Comparative Strategy Editor-In-Chief, 2003
[Keith, "The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction," http://www.unm.edu/~gleasong/
300/su2006/keith_payne_ fallacies.pdf]
The assumption of the Cold War AND , or an inner “voice.”
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The ultimate impact of proliferation is extinction

Victor A. Utgoff, Deputy Dir – Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division, Institute for Defense Analysis, Proliferation,
Missile Defence and American Ambitions, Survival, Vol. 44, No. 2, 2002, p. 87-90
Many readers are probably willing to AND dead cities or even whole nations.
US accidents – US land-based ICBMs lead to crisis instability and make nuclear accidents inevitable
The United States also needs to AND or weeks to make that decision.
Accidental launch causes global nuclear war

Forrow, Harvard Associate Medicine Professor, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War Chairman,
Harvard Ethics Program Associate, 1998
[Lachlan,THE NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, http://www.nejm.org/public/ 1998/0338/0018/1326/5.htm#]
Public health professionals now recognize that AND of direct and indirect casualties worldwide.
Current proliferation trends dramatically increase the nuclear terrorism threat

That reality has yet to sink AND nuclear weapon will be used greater.
Terrorists have means and motive – even if skeptics are right, the magnitude of the impact should be prioritized
Allison, Harvard Belfer Center for International Affairs and Science Director, JFK Government Professor, 11/12/2007
[Graham, "The Three 'Nos' knows," http://www.nationalinterest. org/Article.aspx?id=16004, access 8/29]
MUELLER IS entitled to his opinion AND it in a bale of marijuana.
Nuclear terrorism leads to global nuclear war

Speice, JD Candidate, February 2006
[Patrick, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, Lexis]
The potential consequences of the unchecked AND to the use of nuclear weapons.
Even if it fails it leads to retaliation that leads to extinction

Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, ‘04
[Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/ 2004/705/op5.htm]
What would be the consequences of AND , we will all be losers.
Contention Two: Credibility
Nuclear reductions through eliminating ICBMs solves non-prolif credibility

2009
http://www.au.af.mil/au/ aunews/ - need to get a subsciprtion to access article, access 9/13]
Finally, eliminating ICBMs gives America AND global environment has already made obsolete.
This credibility will spillover to non-proliferation cooperation – now is key

Curtis, Nuclear Threat Initiative President, COO, Former Energy Dept. Under Secretary and Deputy Secretary, Former
United Nations Foundation Executive Vice President, November 2007
[Charles, "Reducing the Global Nuclear Danger: International Cooperation-the Indispensable Security Imperative,"
http://nti.org/c_press/speech_ curtis_reducing1107.pdf, access 9/2]
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If the United States cannot defend AND danger and underscore America’s bona fides.
Credibility solves impacts – 2 Reasons

First, Cooperation – Non-proliferation credibility leads to international cooperation on non-proliferation
Schoff, Foreign Policy Analysis Institute Asia-Pacific Studies Associate Director, March 2009
[James, "Realigning Priorities," www.ifpa.org/pdf/ RealignPriorities.pdf]
A common theme in many of AND at the 2010 NPT Review Conference.
AND – International non-proliferation cooperation solves prolif and terrorism

Choubey, Carnegie Endowment Nonproliferation Program Deputy Director, October 2008
[Deepti, "Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?," http://www.carnegieendowment. org/publications/index.cfm?fa=
view&id=22229]
Critics of the recommendations of this AND and possibly burnish its own reputation.
Second, Fissile Material –The plan causes international acceptance of bolstered safeguard systems to check fissile
material diversion
Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment VP, Non-Proliferation Program Director, CFR US Nuclear Policy Task Force
Member, International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Adviser, and Acton, Carnegie
Endowment Non-Proliferation Program Associate, Kings College Science and Security Studies Centre, Former
member of nuclear dismantlement programs (UK-Norway Dialogue, Verification Research, Training and Information
Centre (VERTIC)), February 2009
[George, James“Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate,” http://www.carnegieendowment. org/publications/index.cfm?
fa= view&id=22748&prog=zgp&proj= znpp]
What appears to have motivated much AND weapons and those that do not.
Effective safeguard regimes solve proliferation

Quilop, Philippines University Political Science Associate Professor, 2008
[Raymond Jose, "The Evolving Face of Nuclear Proliferation," Philippine Political Science Journal 29 (52),
http://www.philpolsci.net/pdf/ ppsj2008_quilop2.pdf, access 9/5]
Underpinning these mechanisms is what is AND facilities (Walker 2004: 36).
Even if credibility doesn’t solve for status quo prolif, it checks cascades of proliferation
Sokolsi, Hoover Institute Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Executive Director, July 2009
[Henry, "Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd," http://www.hoover.org/ publications/policyreview/ 46390537.html#n11, access
8/27]
Second, there must be a AND ) would be self-defeating.
Elimiating ICBMs from the nuclear arsenal solves US nuclear commitments and deterrence
Richardson, Lawrence Livermore National Lab Staff, Nuclear Weapons Expert, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Sept./Oct.
2009
[Jeff, "Shifting From a nuclear triad to a nucelar dyad," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 65.5]
A potential end state. In AND of the Defence and Foreign ministries.
Only unconditional action solves these arguments

Lodal, Lodal & Company Chairman (National Security Advisors to the government), Former Kissinger Advisor,
5/19/2009
[Jan, "What Is Needed to Ensure the Long Term Survival of the Regime?," http://www.cfr.org/
publication/19496/what_is_ needed_to_ensure_the_long_ term_survival_of_the_regime. html]
The last thing we have to AND anyhow which are just as dangerous?"
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Missouri State Kruse/Rumbaugh (Damage Limitation)
Missouri State KR
GSU Aff Disclosure

Advantage: Counterforce
Counterforce is our current doctrine
Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Robert S.
Norris, senior research associate with the Natural Resources Defense Council nuclear program and director of the
Nuclear Weapons Databook project. Ivan Oelrich vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of
American Scientists. April 09 From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward
Eliminating Nuclear Weapons, http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf, Accessed 6/22/09, ZS)
With the Cold War over, … for something new.
Counterforce bias increases likelihood of nuclear war
Charles L. Glaser is Professor and Deputy Dean of the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the
University of Chicago, and Steve Fetter is Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of
Maryland International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 84–126
Although U.S. damage-limitation … accompanying risks of nuclear attack
Counterforce leads to retaliatory strikes and a false sense of confidence that increases likelihood of use
Brian Klein Scoville Fellow Global Security Program Sean Meyer Project Manager, U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy
Global Security Program Lisbeth Gronlund Co-Director & Senior Scientist Global Security Program December 15,
2008 “Memo Debunking the Damage Limitation Strategy” Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/nuclear_weapons/policy_issues/memo-debunking-
damage.html
Despite the claim of heightened … nuclear weapons use.
Limited nuclear warfighting is impossible, it would escalate
Michael Krepon Co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center Disarmament Diplomacy Issue No. 75, January/February
2004 “From Arms Control to Cooperative Threat Reduction” http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd75/75mk.htm
The second test, as noted … its nuclear warfighting plans.
Counterforce prompts Chinese modernization and magnifies the risk that those wars would escalate
Keir A. Lieber is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame and the author of War and the
Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology. Daryl G. Press is Associate Professor of Government at
Dartmouth College and the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats. China Security
Winter 2007 “U.S. Nuclear Primacy and the Future of the Chinese Deterrent” www.wsichina.org/cs5_5.pdf
Our research on U.S. nuclear … on China’s vulnerable missile force.
The option of nuclear preemption would be the first choice in a future confrontation of Taiwan
Taiho Lin December 2005 (Assistant Professor, Department of International Trade, Shih Chien University) The
Implications of U.S. Nuclear Strategy for Taiwan’s Security http://www2.scu.edu.tw/politics/journal/doc/j252/3.pdf
To settle the requirements for … but a military doctrine.
Taiwan conflict causes extinction
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Chalmers Johnson (President of Japan Policy Research Institute) 2001 The Nation, May 14, LN
China is another … no deterrent effect.
Counterforce leads to accidental launch
Harold Feiveson, ed., The Nuclear Turning Point: A Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-alerting of Nuclear Weapons
(Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1999).
Counterforce doctrine increases … origin of the attack.
Accidental nuclear war is extinction.
PR Newswire, 1998 (authors of the NEJM study include Christine Cassel, immediate past president of the American
College of Physicians, Victor Sidel, co-president of IPPNW and former president of the American Public Health
Association (APHA), Dr. Ira Helfand, past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility, Barry Levy, immediate
past president of APHA; Bruce Blair, MD, of Brookings, one of the world's leading authorities on the command and
control of nuclear weapons, and Drs. Theodore Postol and George Lewis, leading experts on nuclear weapons
systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “NEJM Study Warns of Increasing Risk of Accidental Nuclear
Attack”, April 29, lexis)
"It is politically and morally … of casualties worldwide.
Counterforce targeting leads to Russian arms build ups magnifying the risk of accidental launch
Hans M.Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Robert
S.Norris, senior research associate with the Natural Resources Defense Council nuclear program and director of the
Nuclear Weapons Databook project. Ivan Oelrich vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of
American Scientists. April 09 From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward
Eliminating Nuclear Weapons, http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf, Accessed 6/22/09, ZS)
On the other side of … threat to the United States.
Plan:
The United States Federal Government should end its damage limitation mission toward Russia and the People’s
Republic of China and restrict all National Nuclear Security Administration activities inconsistent with a curatorship
approach for the nuclear weapons complex.
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Navy Averill/Palacios (Navy) [Amy]
Observation One is the status quo- our nuclear arsenal is structured the same way as it was during the Cold War,
which means we ignore the threat of proliferation and nuclear weapons.
Daalder and Loda, 2008
(Ivo and Jan, “The Logic of Zero: Toward a World without Nuclear Weapons,” Foreign Affairs, Volume 87, number 6,
page 83-84)
Advantage 1= Space Weaponization

First, US military leaders are creating syergy between nuclear strategy and space operations
Nichols and Johnson-Freeze 2007
(Thomas and Jaon, Brown Journal of World Affairs, “Space, Security and the New Nuclear Triad,”
http://www.brittanica.com/bps/additionalcontent/18/33119800/Space-Security-and-the-New-Nuclear-Triad
And, ICBMs are being transformed into dual use technologies capable of waging warfare in space
Pincus 05
(Walter, “Commander Seeks Alternate Uses for ICBMs” Washington Post Staff Writer, April 21st 2005)
Weaponization isn’t inevitable- we must maintain the distinction
Krepon, 20005
(Michael, Director of Space Security Project at Henry L. Stimson Center, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005,
Vol 61, No 3, pg 68)
US Weaponization of space would draw other countries in resulting in a massive proliferation of nuclear weapons
Hitchens 2k3
(Thersea, Vice President Center for Defense Information, September 29,2003, “US Weaponization of Space:
Implications for International Security”)
Space weapons would lead to an accidental strike from Russia- resulting in an all out nuclear battle
Beljac 2008
(Marko, Teaches at the University of Melbourne, Foreign Policy in Focus, “Arms Race in Space”
http://www.fpip.org/fpitxt/5113)
Advantage 2=prolif
US investments in strategic defense are causing Chinese rearmament
Nicols and Johnson-Freese 2007
(Thomas and Jaon, Brown Journal of World Affairs, “Space, Security, and the New Nuclear Triad,”
http://www.brittanica.com/bps/additonalcontent/18/33119800/Space-Security-and-the-New-Triad)
Abandoning counterforce capability is necessary to get Russia and China on board for reciprocal reductions
Kristensen Norris and Oelrich 09
(Hans, Director of the Nuclear Information Project @ the Federation of American Scientists, Robert, Senior Research
Associate with the Natural Resources Defense Council Nuclear Program and Director of the Nuclear Weapons
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Wayne 2009
Databook, Ivan, president for Strategic Security Program@ the Federation of American Scientists, “From Counterforce
to Minimal Deterrence: A new nuclear policy on the path toward eliminating nuclear weapons,” Federation of American
Scientsts and the Natureal Resources Defense Council, Occasional Paper no. 7, April 2009)
And, US leadership in reductions is key-it’s the only way to preserve non-proliferation leadership and get other
countries on board for cuts.
Krepinevich 2007
(Andrew F, Executive Director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, “Forging a Path
to a post-nuclear US military” http://www.issues.org/13.3/krepin.htm)
Proliferation makes extinction inevitable-terrorism, miscalculation, and retaliation
Utgoff 02
(Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of Institute for Defense Analysis, “Proliferation, Missile
defense, and American Ambitions,” Survival, Summer, pg 87-90)
1 percent risk of nuclear terrorism outweighs- the magnitude of the event is literally unthinkable
Mowatt-Larssen, 2009
(Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, senior fellow at Harvard, former director of intelligence and counterintelligence at the
Department of Energy, “The Armageddon test: Preventing nuclear terrorism,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
September/October 2009, vol 65, no.5, pp 60-70)
Avantage 3= Beat Air Force!

The USAF is an obvious candidate for traiad reductions- too many nuclear accidents and mistakes
Lewis 2009
(Jeffery, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, Arms Control
Wonk.com, “Gates to Triad: Drop Dead”, April 30th, http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2265/gates-f-the-triad)
There has been a massive organizational decline in the nuclear mission of the Air Force since the 1990s- the highest
ranking Air Force officer with only nuclear responsibilities is a colonel- which contributes to the decline in the Air
Force’s nuclear competency.
Murdock 2008
(Clar, senior advisor in CSIS specializing in strategic planning, defense policy, and national security affairs, “The
Department of Defense and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st century,” March,
htt[://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080305-murdock-nuclearmission.pdf)
And, ground and air based weapons are poised to launch on warning-massively increasing the chance of an accidental
launch
Podvig 2006
(Pavel, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, “Reducing the Risk of an Accidental
Launch” Science and Global Security, 75-115)
A reduction in military posture is necessary to stop accidental launch
Lewis 2008
(Jeffery, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, Dr. Lewis was
Executive Director of the Managing the Atom Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, July/August 2008, “Minimum Deterrence”
http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2008/minimum_deterrence_7552)
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USAF miscalculation makes war inevitable by making first strike the only viable option-it severs the connection
between the president and nuclear deployment
Carnesale 1983
(Albert, Harvard Nuclear Strategy Group, Living with Nuclear Weapons, pg 58)
And, We cannot afford the chance of miscalc-any misreading of intentions would lead to full scale nuclear war
immediately
Cohen and Lee 1989
(Avner and Steven, Nuclear weapons and the future of humanity, pg. 11)
Plan text- The United States federal government should substancially reduce the size of the US nuclear arsenal by
dismantling nuclear weapons currently deployed on ground and air bases.
Observation 3= The Navy to the Rescue

The technical realities of nuclear weapons lead scientists to believe that sea-based nuclear weapons are the best
option
Lewis 2008
Submarine based nuclear weapons are a credible deterrent- 500 warheads are enough
Richardson 2009
(Jeff Richarson, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Shifting from a nuclear triad to a nuclear dyad, “Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists,” September/October 2009, vol 65, no. 5, pg 33-42)
A shift to sea-based weapons is necessary to an effective limited deterrence
Ghosh 01
(P.K., “Emerging Trends in the Nuclear Triad,” Strategic Analysis A monthly Journal of the IDSA, May 2001, Vol. XXV,
no. 2)
Minimum Deterrence isn’t a pipe dream- Oppenheimer and Eisenhower both believed it was the best nuclear strategy
Lewis 2008
Minimum deterrence requires a Presidential Policy directive that changes the role of nuclear weapons- no other branch
can act
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Navy Branton/Erxleben (Navy) [Amy]
Observation One is the status quo- our nuclear arsenal is structured the same way as it was during the Cold War,
which means we ignore the threat of proliferation and nuclear weapons.
Daalder and Loda, 2008
(Ivo and Jan, “The Logic of Zero: Toward a World without Nuclear Weapons,” Foreign Affairs, Volume 87, number 6,
page 83-84)
Advantage 1= Space Weaponization

First, US military leaders are creating syergy between nuclear strategy and space operations
Nichols and Johnson-Freeze 2007
(Thomas and Jaon, Brown Journal of World Affairs, “Space, Security and the New Nuclear Triad,”
http://www.brittanica.com/bps/additionalcontent/18/33119800/Space-Security-and-the-New-Nuclear-Triad
And, ICBMs are being transformed into dual use technologies capable of waging warfare in space
Pincus 05
(Walter, “Commander Seeks Alternate Uses for ICBMs” Washington Post Staff Writer, April 21st 2005)
Weaponization isn’t inevitable- we must maintain the distinction
Krepon, 20005
(Michael, Director of Space Security Project at Henry L. Stimson Center, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005,
Vol 61, No 3, pg 68)
US Weaponization of space would draw other countries in resulting in a massive proliferation of nuclear weapons
Hitchens 2k3
(Thersea, Vice President Center for Defense Information, September 29,2003, “US Weaponization of Space:
Implications for International Security”)
Space weapons would lead to an accidental strike from Russia- resulting in an all out nuclear battle
Beljac 2008
(Marko, Teaches at the University of Melbourne, Foreign Policy in Focus, “Arms Race in Space”
http://www.fpip.org/fpitxt/5113)
Advantage 2=prolif
US investments in strategic defense are causing Chinese rearmament
Nicols and Johnson-Freese 2007
(Thomas and Jaon, Brown Journal of World Affairs, “Space, Security, and the New Nuclear Triad,”
http://www.brittanica.com/bps/additonalcontent/18/33119800/Space-Security-and-the-New-Triad)
Abandoning counterforce capability is necessary to get Russia and China on board for reciprocal reductions
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And, US leadership in reductions is key-it’s the only way to preserve non-proliferation leadership and get other
countries on board for cuts.
Krepinevich 2007
(Andrew F, Executive Director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, “Forging a Path
to a post-nuclear US military” http://www.issues.org/13.3/krepin.htm)
Proliferation makes extinction inevitable-terrorism, miscalculation, and retaliation
Utgoff 02
(Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of Institute for Defense Analysis, “Proliferation, Missile
defense, and American Ambitions,” Survival, Summer, pg 87-90)
1 percent risk of nuclear terrorism outweighs- the magnitude of the event is literally unthinkable
Mowatt-Larssen, 2009
(Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, senior fellow at Harvard, former director of intelligence and counterintelligence at the
Department of Energy, “The Armageddon test: Preventing nuclear terrorism,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
September/October 2009, vol 65, no.5, pp 60-70)
Avantage 3= Beat Air Force!

The USAF is an obvious candidate for traiad reductions- too many nuclear accidents and mistakes
Lewis 2009
(Jeffery, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, Arms Control
Wonk.com, “Gates to Triad: Drop Dead”, April 30th, http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2265/gates-f-the-triad)
There has been a massive organizational decline in the nuclear mission of the Air Force since the 1990s- the highest
ranking Air Force officer with only nuclear responsibilities is a colonel- which contributes to the decline in the Air
Force’s nuclear competency.
Murdock 2008
(Clar, senior advisor in CSIS specializing in strategic planning, defense policy, and national security affairs, “The
Department of Defense and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st century,” March,
htt[://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080305-murdock-nuclearmission.pdf)
And, ground and air based weapons are poised to launch on warning-massively increasing the chance of an accidental
launch
Podvig 2006
(Pavel, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, “Reducing the Risk of an Accidental
Launch” Science and Global Security, 75-115)
A reduction in military posture is necessary to stop accidental launch
Lewis 2008
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Wayne 2009
USAF miscalculation makes war inevitable by making first strike the only viable option-it severs the connection
between the president and nuclear deployment
Carnesale 1983
(Albert, Harvard Nuclear Strategy Group, Living with Nuclear Weapons, pg 58)
And, We cannot afford the chance of miscalc-any misreading of intentions would lead to full scale nuclear war
immediately
Cohen and Lee 1989
(Avner and Steven, Nuclear weapons and the future of humanity, pg. 11)
Plan text- The United States federal government should substancially reduce the size of the US nuclear arsenal by
dismantling nuclear weapons currently deployed on ground and air bases.
Observation 3= The Navy to the Rescue

The technical realities of nuclear weapons lead scientists to believe that sea-based nuclear weapons are the best
option
Lewis 2008
Submarine based nuclear weapons are a credible deterrent- 500 warheads are enough
Richardson 2009
(Jeff Richarson, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Shifting from a nuclear triad to a nuclear dyad, “Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists,” September/October 2009, vol 65, no. 5, pg 33-42)
A shift to sea-based weapons is necessary to an effective limited deterrence
Ghosh 01
(P.K., “Emerging Trends in the Nuclear Triad,” Strategic Analysis A monthly Journal of the IDSA, May 2001, Vol. XXV,
no. 2)
Minimum Deterrence isn’t a pipe dream- Oppenheimer and Eisenhower both believed it was the best nuclear strategy
Lewis 2008
Minimum deterrence requires a Presidential Policy directive that changes the role of nuclear weapons- no other branch
can act
Page 333 of 703

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Wayne 2009
Page 334 of 703

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Wayne 2009
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Wayne 2009
North Texas Peretz/Rowe (W-88s) [Logan]
GSU Aff Disclosure
Contention One is Inherency:

The U.S. deploys two warheads on submarines – the power and accuracy of the W-88 warhead makes it the key factor
in undermining nuclear stability
Mosher et al, ‘03
[David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz, David R. Howell, Lynn E. Davis, RAND Corporation, “Beyond the Nuclear
Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S.–Russian Relations,”
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/index.html]
Trident submarines carry ... command and control systems.
New upgrades to the W-88 did nothing – they are still unstable
USA Today, ‘08
[“Quality of warhead triggers questioned,” January 20, http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/gear/2008-01-20-

triggers_N.htm]
WASHINGTON — Resting atop the ... producing a stronger product.
Advantage One is Accidental Detonation:
W-88 warheads are accident prone – even small shocks could cause detonation
Aldridge, ‘99
[Bob, Pacific Life Research Center, “Trident Warhead Hazards: Considerations and Consequences,” Dec 8,
http://www.plrc.org/docs/991208.pdf]
Nuclear weapons are, ... causing a nuclear detonation."3
Accidental detonation causes nuclear war and extinction
Canberra Commission, ‘95
[The Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, “Statement,” November,

http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/CanberraCommission.pdf]
No theoretical calculation ... accidental or miscalculated use.
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Submarine detonation causes radioactive contamination
Newtan, ‘07
[Samuel Upton, PhD in Engineering, Nuclear War I and Other Major Nuclear Disasters of the 20th Century161-162]
Perhaps the most devastating ... submarine deployment in the future.
Even without detonation, the W-88 is prone to water damage that would irradiate the oceans
Morland, ‘07
[Howard, Journalist and activist, revealed the Teller-Ullam H-bomb design, “The Holocaust Bomb: a Question of Time,”
Feb 8, http://www.fas.org/sgp/eprint/morland.html]
This use of uranium-235 ... the official reason.
Ocean radiation contaminates the food chain
Krieger, ‘96
[David, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, “Denuclearization of the Oceans: Linking Our Common
Heritage with Our Common Future,” March,
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/1996/03/00_krieger_denuclearization-oceans.htm]
From an environmental perspective, ... submarines breach their containment.
Caldicott, ‘94
[Helen, Physician, Nuclear Madness: What You Can Do, p 21-22]
As a physician, ... world’s pronuclear policies.
Radiation leaks are the worst from of pollution – outweighs any alt cause
Stapleton, ‘07
[Richard M. Stapleton, Pollution Issues, “Disasters: Nuclear Accidents,” http://www.pollutionissues.com/index.html]
Of all the environmental disaster ...contamination for hundreds of years.
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Wayne 2009
Independently, ocean destruction causes extinction
Craig, ‘03
[Robin Kundis, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, Winter 2003, McGeorge Law Review, 34
McGeorge L. Rev. 155]
The world's oceans ... to future generations.
Advantage Two is Russia:

Russia maintains high alert and the Dead Hand in response to the threat of US submarines – many factors threaten to
trigger the machine and cause nuclear war independently from accidental launch
Rosenbaum, ‘07
[Ron Rosenbaum is the author of The Shakespeare Wars and Explaining Hitler, Slate, August 31,
http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/]
An extreme fantasy, ... rather than policy.
Even a moderate scenario for accidental launch would escalate and kill billions
Forrow et al, ‘98
[Lachlan Forrow, Bruce G Blair, Ira Helfand, George Lewis, et al, Author Affiliation: From the Division of Gencral
Medicine and Primary Care, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, (L.F.); the Brookings
Institution, Washington, D.C. (B.G.B.); Physicians for Social Responsibility, (I.H.); Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, (G.L., TP); the Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert
Einstein College of Medicine, (VS.); Barry S. Levy Associates and Tufts University School of Medicine, (B.S.L.); the
Department of Radiology and the Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, (H.A.); and
Mount Sinai School of Medicine; New England Journal of Medicine, April 30]
A missile launch ... indirect casualties worldwide.4
Independently, the W-88 is a unique threat to crisis stability – this guarantees escalation to nuclear use
Morland, ‘07
This warhead, which ... terror highly unstable.
Safeguards don’t reduce the risk of accidental war
Boldrick, ‘94
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Wayne 2009
[Michael R., Retired Air Force Colonel who commanded a unit of Minuteman ICBMs, “Dr. Strangelaunch” Reason
Magazine, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Dr.+Strangelaunch-a015473469]
Western governments have ... to nuclear launches.
Eliminating the W-88 encourages Russia to end high alert and deactivate the Dead Hand
Roth, ‘06
[George Simmons, author and military/political commentator, “A Simple Solution for Accidental Nuclear War,”
http://www.crazedfanboy.com/roth/nukes.html]
At this point, ... at a later time.
The plan increases Russian response time – this solves accidents caused by any other factor
Mosher et al, ‘03
Contribution to Reducing ... will lead to nuclear use.
CBMs and safety measures are not enough – only eliminating the W-88 can prevent accidental war
Roth, ‘06
The second part ... solves the problem.
Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate W-88 warheads from its ballistic missile submarines.
Contention Three is Solvency:

W-88 removal is verifiable without compromising security
Mosher et al, ‘03
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Wayne 2009
To reduce Russia’s ... confidence-building measure.
W-88 removal is fast, cheap, and doesn’t compromise trident security
Mosher et al, ‘03
Feasibility and Affordability. ... inspections each year.
The W-88 is a unique first-strike weapon – replacing it with the W-76 will not allow hard target counterforce missions
even if the Trident Missile is upgraded
Gossman, ‘07
[Elaine, Global Security Newswire, “More Accurate U.S. Nuclear Trident Faces Controversy,” Aug 17,
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/GSN_20070817_65AC8206.php]
The conventional version ... according to officials.
Russia still relies on early warning systems and unilateral cuts are key
Karas, ‘01
[Thomas, Stanley Foundation, Sandia Report, “De-Alerting and De-activating nuclear weapons”]
Russian military leaders ... between the two sides.
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Wayne 2009
North Texas Quinn/Wey (W-88s) [Logan]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention One is Inherency:
The U.S. deploys two warheads on submarines – the power and accuracy of the W-88 warhead makes it the key factor
in undermining nuclear stability
Mosher et al, ‘03
Trident submarines carry ... command and control systems.
New upgrades to the W-88 did nothing – they are still unstable
USA Today, ‘08
[“Quality of warhead triggers questioned,” January 20, http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/gear/2008-01-20-

triggers_N.htm]
WASHINGTON — Resting atop the ... producing a stronger product.
Advantage One is Accidental Detonation:
W-88 warheads are accident prone – even small shocks could cause detonation
Aldridge, ‘99
[Bob, Pacific Life Research Center, “Trident Warhead Hazards: Considerations and Consequences,” Dec 8,
http://www.plrc.org/docs/991208.pdf]
Nuclear weapons are, ... causing a nuclear detonation."3
Accidental detonation causes nuclear war and extinction
Canberra Commission, ‘95
[The Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, “Statement,” November,

http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/CanberraCommission.pdf]
No theoretical calculation ... accidental or miscalculated use.
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Wayne 2009
Submarine detonation causes radioactive contamination
Newtan, ‘07
[Samuel Upton, PhD in Engineering, Nuclear War I and Other Major Nuclear Disasters of the 20th Century161-162]
Perhaps the most devastating ... submarine deployment in the future.
Even without detonation, the W-88 is prone to water damage that would irradiate the oceans
Morland, ‘07
This use of uranium-235 ... the official reason.
Ocean radiation contaminates the food chain
Krieger, ‘96
[David, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, “Denuclearization of the Oceans: Linking Our Common
Heritage with Our Common Future,” March,
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/1996/03/00_krieger_denuclearization-oceans.htm]
From an environmental perspective, ... submarines breach their containment.
Caldicott, ‘94
[Helen, Physician, Nuclear Madness: What You Can Do, p 21-22]
As a physician, ... world’s pronuclear policies.
Radiation leaks are the worst from of pollution – outweighs any alt cause
Stapleton, ‘07
[Richard M. Stapleton, Pollution Issues, “Disasters: Nuclear Accidents,” http://www.pollutionissues.com/index.html]
Of all the environmental disaster ...contamination for hundreds of years.
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Wayne 2009
Independently, ocean destruction causes extinction
Craig, ‘03
[Robin Kundis, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, Winter 2003, McGeorge Law Review, 34
McGeorge L. Rev. 155]
The world's oceans ... to future generations.
Advantage Two is Russia:

Russia maintains high alert and the Dead Hand in response to the threat of US submarines – many factors threaten to
trigger the machine and cause nuclear war independently from accidental launch
Rosenbaum, ‘07
[Ron Rosenbaum is the author of The Shakespeare Wars and Explaining Hitler, Slate, August 31,
http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/]
An extreme fantasy, ... rather than policy.
Even a moderate scenario for accidental launch would escalate and kill billions
Forrow et al, ‘98
[Lachlan Forrow, Bruce G Blair, Ira Helfand, George Lewis, et al, Author Affiliation: From the Division of Gencral
Medicine and Primary Care, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, (L.F.); the Brookings
Institution, Washington, D.C. (B.G.B.); Physicians for Social Responsibility, (I.H.); Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, (G.L., TP); the Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert
Einstein College of Medicine, (VS.); Barry S. Levy Associates and Tufts University School of Medicine, (B.S.L.); the
Department of Radiology and the Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, (H.A.); and
Mount Sinai School of Medicine; New England Journal of Medicine, April 30]
A missile launch ... indirect casualties worldwide.4
Independently, the W-88 is a unique threat to crisis stability – this guarantees escalation to nuclear use
Morland, ‘07
This warhead, which ... terror highly unstable.
Safeguards don’t reduce the risk of accidental war
Boldrick, ‘94
[Michael R., Retired Air Force Colonel who commanded a unit of Minuteman ICBMs, “Dr. Strangelaunch” Reason
Magazine, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Dr.+Strangelaunch-a015473469]
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Western governments have ... to nuclear launches.
Eliminating the W-88 encourages Russia to end high alert and deactivate the Dead Hand
Roth, ‘06
At this point, ... at a later time.
The plan increases Russian response time – this solves accidents caused by any other factor
Mosher et al, ‘03
Contribution to Reducing ... will lead to nuclear use.
CBMs and safety measures are not enough – only eliminating the W-88 can prevent accidental war
Roth, ‘06
The second part ... solves the problem.
Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate W-88 warheads from its ballistic missile submarines.
Contention Three is Solvency:

W-88 removal is verifiable without compromising security
Mosher et al, ‘03
Page 344 of 703

Minnesota CWRU Neg
Wayne 2009
To reduce Russia’s ... confidence-building measure.
W-88 removal is fast, cheap, and doesn’t compromise trident security
Mosher et al, ‘03
Feasibility and Affordability. ... inspections each year.
The W-88 is a unique first-strike weapon – replacing it with the W-76 will not allow hard target counterforce missions
even if the Trident Missile is upgraded
Gossman, ‘07
[Elaine, Global Security Newswire, “More Accurate U.S. Nuclear Trident Faces Controversy,” Aug 17,
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/GSN_20070817_65AC8206.php]
The conventional version ... according to officials.
Russia still relies on early warning systems and unilateral cuts are key
Karas, ‘01
[Thomas, Stanley Foundation, Sandia Report, “De-Alerting and De-activating nuclear weapons”]
Russian military leaders ... between the two sides.
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Northern Iowa Chase/Hiland (PGS) [Phil]
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Wayne 2009
Northwestern Fisher/Spies (PGS) [Phil]
Northwestern Matt Fisher and Stephanie Spies

All of the plans we have read (Gonzaga-GSU)
The United States Federal Government should substitute some of its nuclear warheads on long-range ballistic missiles
with conventional warheads.
The United States Federal Government should substitute some nuclear payloads on long-range ballistic missiles with
conventional payloads.
The United States Federal Government should make necessary conventional warhead substitutions to replace the
nuclear role in warfighting with a prompt global strike capability.
The United States Federal Government should substitute warheads on W-76's and W-87's with conventional
warheads.
The United States Federal Government should substitute a portion of its nuclear payloads on long-range ballistic
missiles with conventional payloads.
Harvard Round 6
Aff vs. UMW
AT: ‘Role in time-oriented targets’ CP – competition
Aff maintains the defensive role of nukes but doesn’t blur conventional and nuclear weapons for offensive missions –
aff preserves the ‘defensive role’ of nukes
Arkin 5, “not just a last resort?”
In the secret world of military planning … about the defensive role of nuclear weapons.
Plan eliminates bolt out of the blue attacks but not US responses
Arkin 6, “attack iran? We’re ready”
Last Man, I wrote about US preparations for … resulting in constant revisions of the choreography.
Global Strike mission definition

Kristensen 6, ‘global strike: a chronology of the pentagon’s new offensive strike plan’
Although global strike is primarily a non-nuclear mission based…the range of the weapons.
Global strike = bolt out of the blue attacks

Kristensen 7, ‘US strategic war planning after 9/11”
At a first glance, calling global strike a ‘new mission’ may seem like a misnomer… and prevent an adversary’s strikes.
Global strike mission includes nuclear use against WMD, missiles, command and control, or bunkers in HDBT
Flory 6, ‘global strike issues’
But the NPR was only a starting point for the transformation of US strategic capabilities … currently limited to nuclear
weapons.
AT: Deterrence
Forward deployed bombers triggers escalation with NK – impact is global biowars
Seaquist 3, ‘listen to the nuclear chatter: the noise of war distracts attention from dangerous escalation of threats’
Welcome to the world of nuclear signaling. ... needs to repeat that experience
Kentucky Doubles (Aff vs. Vandy)
AT: Politics
GOP wants conventional capabilities - pushing for preservation in START

Cable, 9/16 (The Cable: Foreign Policy, 2009, "House Republicans ding Obama")
"Yesterday, The Cable...conventional strike systems"
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Kentucky Round Robin - Race 8 (Aff vs. West Georgia)
REFERENDUM COUNTERPLAN ANSWERS

Public says no, freak out over perceived unilater reductions
CR, Chain Reaction (Political News analysis, 2009 “Poll shows support for Obama’s nuke policies, but…)
“On Tuesday, may 19, a new deomocracy corps poll” “our message depending on our audience”
Referendum on the plan causes a strike on iran

Silber 7 (It’s up to us now, www.powerofnarative.blogspot.com/2007/07/its-up-to-us-now.html
“second, I am an admierer of Paul Craig” “unimaginable in the current circumstances”
CP requires congress to create a national referendum, no mechanism in place now

“national referendum.org 6
Reasons for a petition for a naitnal referendum on the transportation of high level nuclear waste
“in 23 states and many foreign countries” “on the transportation of high level nuclear waste”
NEW PROLIF ADVANTAGE CARDS

Nuclear global strike = aggressive nuclear modernization in Russia and china and crushes stability
Kristensen 2007 “US strategic war planning after 9/11”
“the new triad has been sold” “justifying their own modernizations”
Causes misperceptions and global nuclear conflict

Engdahl 2007 “Russia and the new cold war”
“conplan 8022 included” “of the cold war”
Triggers rapid global offensive nuclear modernization – plan sets an example of restraint
Muller 2007 “a new arms race? We’re in the middle of it”
“the symbolic abandonment of target” “in the midst of it”
Iran can have nukes in months

WND 2009
“meanwhile, the Barack Obama” “before the end of 2009”
So can north korea

Harden 2009
“north korea announced early Friday” “countries that the North subsequently canceled”
russia thinks teh t? The Nunn-Lugar program to help Russia destroy its nuclear weapons no longer makes sense. ...
online.wsj.com/.../SB10001424052970203
POLITICS ANSWERS
No political capital
A. Olympics
Michael Roston, 9-28-09, “Obama’s boneheaded plan to get involved in Chicago’s 2016 Olympics bid,” Online
So there is nothing essential about the Olympics bid to…pay for it; but then again; so will we all.
B. Cap & Trade

John M. Border, 9-29-09, “Curtain Rises on Senate Struggle Over Climate Legislation, Online
WASHINGTON – A draft of a climate bill that Senate Democrats will…debates its own version of the bill.
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Fiat solves the think --- immediacy mean’s the plan’s not debated
Plan’s bipartisan --- Congress hates nuclear ambiguity.
Julian borger, 5-30-06, The Guardian, “Congress balks at Pentagon ‘war on terror’ missile,” Online
Congress has stalled Pentagon plans to put conventional…of a long-range ballistic missile.
No health care reform and anything that passes will fail miserably.
Times Union, 10-1-09, “Grim prognosis for health care,” Online
Tuesday’s events are potentially fatal setbacks for…to pass a public insurance option.
No healthcare – seniors’ opposition.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis, 9-26-09, “Analysis : On health care, beware wrath of seniors, Online
WASHINGTON – Beware the wrath of the nation’s seniors…compared with 31 percent in support.
Tauscher and Levin love the plan.

Wade Boese, June 2007, Arms Control Today, “Panel Endorses U.S. Global Strike Initiative,” Online
The experts said policy makers should explore…idea in the minds of many of us.”
Tauscher’s key to the agenda.

Matthew B. Stannard, 6-9-09, “Tauscher in hot seat for key State Dept. post,” San Francisco Chronicle,” Online
“During the Cold War…Americans of all stripes were…Armed Services Strategic Force Subcommittee.
So is Levin.
Eugene Mulero, 5-21-09, “Roll Call: CongressNow Overview – Levin is Key ally for Obama’s Reform Efforts,” Online
Ask most lawmakers and they will tell you that the…compromises on policy and budgetary matters.
Plan goes to the bottom of the docket --- solves the da
No impact to the economy --- already in a financial crisis and the U.S. isn’t key to global interdependence
Snowe loves the plan.

Robert Spencer, 2-25-04, “Tenet: al-Qaida Weakened, Extremism Isn’t,” Online
Largely ignoring an appeal from the committee…with a pre-emptive war.”
She’s the key to healthcare – on the fence now.

AP, 9-28-09, “Snowe is the woman with clout on health care,” Online
WASHINTON --- they call her “President Snowe” in the blogosphere…a very, very important senator.”
Triggers will never be triggered.

Jason Rosenbaum, 9-4-09, “A Trigger for the Public Option – a plan to Kill the Public Option, Online
3. Triggers will never the triggered We’ve tried triggers before….It should be rejected.
Plans funded as “black budget” program

“watts 2005 “long-range strike: imperatives, urgency and options”
“given the preceding chapter’s” “since that time”
Avoids congress
Snow 2003 “out of the blue”
“naturally, as we are always” “sphere of democratic activity”
BOMBERS ADD-ON
Nuclear global srike crushes bomber readiness –requires dual training
Grossman 2009 “new US global strike command to juggle nuclear, conventional missions”
“U.S. air force leaders say” the task force stated”
Key to global deterrence and power projection

Carpenter 2009 “
“chairman Nelson, ranking member” “I look forward to your questions” “key power projection capabilities”
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CHINA/RUSSIA ANSWERS
PGS is not a conventional build-up – increasing usability of missils isn’t modeled
Andreasen 2006 “Cartwright sought to dismiss” “to do the same”
China’s used to US conventional superiority - mobile forces increase stability

Shull 2005 “Bernard brodie theorized nearly” “a similar nuclear posture”
No conventional arms race – china cant keep up and Russia has no incentives
Owens 2008 “the use of a CSM or CTM” “achieve first-strike capability”
AT: INTEL
PGS increases available intel

Sugden 2009 “speed kills: analyzing the deployment of conventional ballistic missiles”
“although lack of access to” “vehicles could exploit”
Cooperation solves misperception – transparency stabilizes reactions

Owens 2008
“the us must take the lead in establishing” “reactions to a CTM launch”
ASATs CARDS
Space debris = accidental nuke war
Lewis 2004 “
“this is the second of two” “not available about the Russian”
2010 key
Kan 2007
“the longer-term implications concern some” “could threaten U.S. Satellites”
AT: NEGOTIATING LEVERAGE LINK

Plan won’t change degree of leverage – disparity is power is too great
Goldgeier 9/11
“the Russians have….remains quite limited”
Russia already has leverage – Iran

Tobey 9/4
“the iran nuclear issue….extract further gratuities”
AT: START DA
Global strike collapses start – Russia thinks the us will put nukes back on icbms
Boese 8
“one divisive issue….missile is launched”
Not counting conventional missiles is worse for start – collapses verification

McLaughlin 9
“conventionally armed delivery…those currently in play”
Current discussions are only superficial – real negotiations won’t occur until late 2010
Kazyonnov 9/9
“sergei Kazyonnov, chief analyst with the ….trial balloons the analyst said.”
Start won’t solve relations

RN 9/10/09
“the process of resetting the relations….destabilize the status quo”
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 1 (Aff vs. Harvard)
PLAN:
The United States Federal Government should end the nuclear role in the Global Strike mission.
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ADVANTAGE 1: AMBIGUITY
Global Strike Command has dual capabilities but prioritizes the nuclear mission --- trades off with conventional strike
deterrence and sends a global signal that nukes are the preferred option for prompt global strike
Elaine M. Grossman 9, former Inside the Pentagon Senior Correspondent & prize winning investigative journalist,
“New U.S. Global Strike Command to Juggle Nuclear, Conventional Missions”, Global Security Newswire, April 2009,
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090427_2483.php
U.S. Air ... a back seat, he said.
This combination of nuclear and conventional capabilities into a single ‘offensive strike force’ triggers ambiguity and
risks nuclear war
Amy E Woolf 9, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service, “Conventional Warheads for
Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues for Congress”, January 26, 2009,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33067.pdf
Those who believe that conventional ... use of nuclear weapons more likely.
Causes full scale escalation

Steve Andreasen 6, a national security consultant & teaches at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs & former director for defense policy and arms control on the National Security Council, “Off Target? The
Bush Administration's Plan to Arm Long-Range Ballistic Missiles with Conventional Warheads”, Arms Control Today,
July/August 2006, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_07-08/CoverStory?print
Dating back to the Clinton ... say, not as we do.”
Removing nukes from the global strike mission resolves the ambiguity of the US global strike posture by identifying
them as last resort weapons like the rest of the arsenal
Hans M. Kristensen 8, Federation of American Scientists, “STRATCOM Cancels Controversial Preemption Strike
Plan”, July 25, 2008, http://www.rightsidenews.com/200807251534/global-terrorism/stratcom-cancels-controversial-
preemption-strike-plan.html
CONPLAN 8022 was the first ... next administration's Nuclear Posture Review will.
ADVANTAGE 2: STRIKES
Blurring nuclear and conventional capabilities within the global strike mission risks nuclear strikes on other countries
like Iran and North Korea
William M. Arkin 5, writes frequently about military affairs & author of "Code Names: Deciphering U.S. Military Plans,
Programs and Operations in the 9/11 World", “Not Just A Last Resort?”, Washington Post, May 15 2005,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/14/AR2005051400071.html
In the secret world of …, Syria and China.
Nuclear first use for counterprolif crushes the firebreak

Wade L. Huntley, Director of the Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research at the Liu Institute
for Global Issues, University of British Columbia, 2006, Threats all the way down, http://www.nautilus.org/gr/wade.jpg
Although maintaining the… and ethical consequences.
Nuclear first strike option lowers the threshold – causes nuclear proliferation and use across the globe
2002
Even more dangerously… many regional confrontations.
US will strike with nuclear bunker-busters triggering global nuclear war and total destruction
Hirsch – ‘6 – Prof. of Physics @ U.C.S.D.
February 20, 2006, America and Iran: At the Brink of the Abyss We can stop a "preemptive" nuclear strike, Jorge
Hirsch, http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8577
The U.S. has just declared … and unimaginable destruction.
ADVANTAGE 3: THE SWITCH
Nuclear terrorist attack’s coming --- Al Qaeda’s regrouping
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Anthony L. Kimery 9, Homeland Security Today, "Al Qaeda seen as the primary terrorist threat for many years",
August 7th, 2009, http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9715/150/
“Adaptive and highly resilient ... knows about bin Laden’s “whereabouts.”
That escalates to full-scale nuclear war

Speice 6 [Patrick F. Speice, Jr. is an associate in Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher's Washington, D.C. office. Mr. Speice
currently practices in the firm’s International Trade Regulation and Compliance Department, focusing on export
controls and economic sanctions compliance, and in the firm's Litigation Department. He earned his J.D. in 2006 from
the Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of William & Mary, where he served as an Articles Editor for the
William and Mary Law Review and as a Graduate Research Fellow. Mr. Speice earned a B.A. in political science cum
laude in 2003 from Wake Forest University “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation,” William & Mary Law Review, 47
Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February]
Accordingly, there is a ... to the use of nuclear weapons.
Terrorists will target the food supply

James D. Zirin4, LLP – Sydney Austin and Staff – Council on Foreign Relations, “Agro-terror alert”, Washington Times,
12-27-2004, Lexis
The food supply is an ... for pathogenic transmission."
Destroys genetic diversity

JP Dudley 2, Institute of Arctic B
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Texas-Dallas Baker/Rubaie (Counterforce) [Logan]
Harvard Quarters
Aff vs. Cal BP
New unipolarity 1ac
Big consensus for a shift away from US dominance
Chua 10-25, lexis
Neoliberalism, which dominated for the decade … a return to the past
Maintaining military intervention blocks shift to multipolarity

Chomsky, 10-5
Every powerful state … change in history
Lieber and press are right about perception but wrong about roles – counterforce and primacy cause escalatory
nuclear wars
Eckel 10-21, ‘nuclear logic,’ fp watch
To their credit, lieber and press do point out some … more rational way to go.
1ar unipolarity
Unipolarity = heg collapse inevitable
Ikenberry et al 9, wold politics, 61.1, muse
Articles in this special issue argue that the shift … capabilities of the united states.
Unipolarity hurts alliances

Walt 9, world politics, 61.1
Over time, the literature on intra-alliance relations … seek more reliable partners
Brooks and wolforth answer

Layne 09, ‘the waning of us hegemony—myth or reality?’ International security
Unipolarity remains the focus of intense debate among … process of multipolarization
Peaceful transition now

Starobin 9
In a multipolar world of nation-states … heartless that way
Transition theory flawed

Nexon 9, ‘world politics,’ 61.2, muse
Hegemonic order and power transition accounts … hegemonic overextension.
Conventional counterforce solves

Lieber and press, 9, foreign affairs, 88.6, ‘the nukes we need’
The united states also needs conventional counterforce … fair chance of success.
Clay 1AC
(Mix of previous China advantages, some new cards @ the bottom of primacy -- same plan read rounds 5 through the
doubles. Aff rounds 1-4 was the 1AC we read against West Georgia.)
ADVANTAGE ONE is PRIMACY –
Counterforce targeting fuels and locks in nuclear primacy, inspiring Russian and Chinese moves toward parity
Lieber and Press, ‘6. Keir A. Lieber is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame and
author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology. Daryl G. Press has worked as a consultant
on military analysis projects for the U.S. Department of Defense far 13 years, and is associate professor of
government at Dartmouth College. “The End of MAD?; The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy,” International
Security, Spring. Lexis.
For nearly half a century, the world's most powerful nuclear-armed states have been locked in a condition of mutual
assured destruction. Since the end of the Cold War, however, the nuclear balance has shifted dramatically.
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Nuclear weapons may no longer produce the peace-inducing stalemate that they did during the Cold War. n10
Counterforce is the *key internal link*

Marko, 6-15-09. PhD from Monash University, masters focusing on nuclear strategy. “US Nuclear Strategy and the
Counterforce Mission,” http://scisec.net/?p=147.
One final point must be made.
Absent this I am not optimistic about a move toward mutual deterrence at low numbers.
Two internal links – FIRST is SUPERPOWER WAR –
Conflicts will escalate to great power nuclear warfare – perception-based conflict will fuel arms races, accidents, and
unauthorized use – *even if* Russia and China don’t modernize it will still trigger nuclear war in a crisis
One might argue that the various new U.S. initiatives discussed above do not reflect the deliberate pursuit of nuclear
primacy, but rather the need to counter threats posed by terrorists or rogue states.
In a new era of U.S. nuclear primacy, U.S. policymakers may once again be tempted to consider nuclear escalation
during intense crises or if nonnuclear military operations go unexpectedly badly for the United States (e.g., in Korea).
n72
SECOND is TRANSITION –
Primacy will inevitably collapse – attempts to reform the squo accelerate decline – only a shift in strategy can soften
the effects of America’s landing
Robert A. Pape, ‘9. Professor of political science at the University of Chicago. “Empire Falls,” The National Interest,
January 2009 - February 2009. Lexis.
AMERICA IS in unprecedented decline.
Like so many great powers that have come and gone before, our own hubris may be our downfall.
Multipolarity is coming – global balance is key to preventing extinction

Feffer, ‘9. John, Contributing Member/Researcher at Foreign Policy in Focus, “World Beat,” FPIF, Feb 17. Vol. 4 No. 7.
Lexis.
The neoconservative movement thrilled to what it called the "unipolar moment."
Debt has been the gravedigger of many an empire. I can hear the adding machine totting up the numbers.
Hegemony arguments miss the boat – they speaks to traits of power, not types of power
Ikenberry et al, ‘9. G. John Ikenberry is a professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, Michael
Mastanduno is a professor of government and associate dean for social sciences at Dartmouth College, and William
C. Wohlforth is a professor of government at Dartmouth College. “Unipolarity, State Behavior, and Systemic
Consequences,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009, p. Muse.
Scholars use the term unipolarity to distinguish a system with one extremely capable state from systems with two or
more great powers (bi-, tri-, and multipolarity).
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International relations scholars have long defined a pole as a state that (1) commands an especially large share of the
resources or capabilities states can use to achieve their ends and that (2) excels in all the component elements of
state capability, conventionally defined as size of population and territory, resource endowment, economic capacity,
military might, and organizational-institutional “competence.”8
Unipolarity collapses the ‘double-disciplining’ effect that sustains all foreign and domestic policy
Political scientists have placed greater emphasis on the impact of regime type on foreign policy than on how changes
in the relative international position of a country affect the role domestic politics play in its foreign policy.32
Developments in American politics such as political polarization have not only encouraged this effort by leaders but
have also enabled interest groups to tie their particular domestic concerns to the more activist foreign policy agenda,
and they have encouraged opportunistic leaders to use foreign policy as a salient issue in domestic political debate.
Unipolarity threatens the stability of the *entire international order*

A second hypothesis, however, suggests the opposite.
…
Jervis suggests that because the unipole has wide discretion in determining the nature and the extent of the goods
provided, its efforts are likely to be perceived by less powerful states as hypocritical attempts to mask the actual
pursuit of private goods.
ADVANTAGE TWO is CHINA –
Counterforce results in a nuclear arms race with China, heightening risk of use during a crisis
Our findings should lead U.S. decisionmakers and foreign policy analysts to consider the wisdom of continued im-
provements to the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
However, a frantic Chinese nuclear alert during ongoing military operations (e.g., during a war over Taiwan) could lead
to crisis dynamics (e.g., U.S. fears that China is preparing to escalate, and resulting temptations to preempt) more
dangerous than those seen for decades. n13
Doctrine change in China is on the BRINK and leaning towards a shift to nuclear war fighting.
Chase, ‘9
[Michael, Andrew & Christopher, assistant professor in the Strategy and Policy Department at the US Naval War
College, Assistant Professor China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), “Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile Force
Modernization and its Implications for the United States” The Journal of Strategic Studies, 32:1, February 2009]
Where the groundwork is possibly being prepared for making substantive modifications to historical PRC nuclear
doctrine and nuclear use policy is in the areas of tactical and theater nuclear warfare and the provisos being proposed
against NFU.
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Certainly, the debate within China on ‘no first use’ is real, with the later generation of officers, diplomats, and scholars
leaning significantly farther forward toward modifying or jettisoning such a declaratory policy.133
Doctrinal shift leads to aggressive escalation by China inviting an escalating conflict.

Chase, ‘9 [Michael, Andrew & Christopher, assistant professor in the Strategy and Policy Department at the US Naval
War College, Assistant Professor China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), “Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile
Force Modernization and its Implications for the United States” The Journal of Strategic Studies, 32:1, February 2009]
At the strategic level, China’s nuclear force modernization is focused on improving survivability to make its nuclear
deterrence posture more credible, a task that has taken on increased urgency as a result of growing concerns
regarding US nuclear preeminence, missile defense plans and conventional precision strike capabilities.
It is possible that employing conventional intercontinental strike capabilities, or perhaps even simply placing such
assets on higher alert levels, would result in miscalculation if either side interpreted such moves as preparations for a
nuclear first strike.
Despite modernization China is not deploying new forces but is in a position to rapidly deploy if its doctrine shifts
Sokolski, ‘8 [Henry, Executive Director The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, “China and Nuclear Proliferation:
Rethinking the Link” Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission "China's
Proliferation Practices, and the Development of its Cyber and Space Warfare Capabilities," May 20, 2008,
http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2008hearings/written_testimonies/08_05_20_wrts/08_05_20_sokolski_statement.pdf]
As already noted, it is unclear if China is intent on ramping up its nuclear weapons program or not.
This is enough material conservatively to make one to two thousand additional advanced nuclear weapons.
US-China war due to counterforce is the deadliest war imaginable – primacy shapes and outweighs every alternate
cause
government at Dartmouth College. “Superiority complex: why America's growing nuclear supremacy may make war
with China more likely,” The Atlantic Monthly, Pg. 86(7) Vol. 300 No. 1, 7-1. Lexis.
In the coming years, as China's economy booms and its armed forces grow, the United States will seek to curb
Chinese military power and influence.
The Navy also recently tested a GPS guidance system that would dramatically boost the accuracy, and thus lethality,
of the submarine missile arsenal.
It independently triggers South Asia nuclear conflict – most likely region for war
Cirincione, 2k [Joseph, director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain” Carnegie Proliferation Brief, 3:3,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=76&prog=zgp&proj=znpp]
Unfortunately, these firewalls are now crumbling in much of the world - particularly in Asia, where declining faith in
arms control is prompting advanced and developing countries alike to contemplate the acquisition or development of
nuclear weapons.
Only by expanding the resources devoted to international negotiations and leading by example in reducing nuclear
dangers can the US hope to prevent a nuclear tsunami from sweeping out of Asia.
The risk of war is incredibly high – increasing provocation will have severe consequences
Chang, 10-2-09. Gordon, Published author, counsel to an American law firm in Shanghai and freelance journalist with
the New York Times, the Asian Wall Street Journal and elsewhere. http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/01/war-in-asia-
trade-opinions-columnists-gordon-chang.html?feed=rss_popstories.
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Asia, unfortunately, is full of intractable disputes.
Asian nations have not come to terms with their neighbors, the institutional links among rising powers remain weak,
and disagreements in the region are sharpening. We can all guess what happens next.
Ending US counterforce will be modeled by China – solves offensive modernization and doctrinal shifts. .
[Hans, Robert & Ivan, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, senior
research associate with the Natural Resources Defense Council nuclear program and director of the Nuclear Weapons
Databook project, & vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists., “From
Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Posture an the Path Toward eliminating Nuclear Weapons”
Occasional Paper No. 7, April 2009, http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf]
The U.S. Intelligence Community has repeatedly stated that U.S. counterforce capabilities have triggered Chinese
nuclear modernizations, developments that are now seen as strategic challenges to U.S. national security and
constraining its options in the Pacific.
An American focus on retaliation alone will allow negotiation of changes in the Russian force structure and, with both
nuclear superpower arsenals being less offensively-oriented, Chinese constraint on missile numbers, payload, and
MIRVing will be easier.
All of our internal links are reverse causal – reducing the threat of US first-strike will reduce the Chinese desire to
deploy
Lewis, ‘9 [Jeffrey, director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation and
publishes the leading blog on nuclear arms control and nonproliferation, Arms Control Wonk.com “Engaging China on
Nuclear Disarmament” Hansell & Potter, Eds. Center for Nonproliferation Studies, March, 2009,
http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op15/index.htm]
This posture, which emphasized possession of modern military capabilities, was well-suited to the ideological and
bureaucratic structure of Mao Zedong’s China.
At the same time, Chinese leaders continue to believe that China’s small nuclear deterrent protects China against
open-ended U.S. strategic modernization that includes the development of precision conventional strike capabilities
and missile defenses, particularly relying on assets based in space.
Plan
The President of the United States of America should order the commander of United States Strategic Command to
eliminate first-strike nuclear counterforce missions.
SOLVENCY –
Only a direct order from Obama to Chilton can change targeting – counterforce is the KEY mission in shaping US
doctrine requirements
Kriestensen, Norris & Oelrich, 9
This report argues that, as long as the United States continues these nuclear missions unjustifiably held over from the
Cold War, nuclear weapons will contribute more to the nation’s and the world’s insecurity than they contribute to their
security.
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Nuclear weapons are so destructive that much smaller forces, of initially 1,000 warheads, and later a few hundred
warheads, are more than adequate to serve as a deterrent against anyone unwise enough to attack the United States
with nuclear weapons.
The plan solves escalation and miscalculation risks while resolving the failures of deterrence
Dr Marko Beljac, ‘9. PhD at Monash University and he has taught at the University of Melbourne. “The Case for
Minimum Nuclear Deterrence,” Science and Global Security, 7-24-09, http://scisec.net/?p=154.
Nuclear war can best be seen as a form of risk externality …
But everything has its proper time and place.
Declaratory policy alone is only propaganda unless our missions change.

Arbatov, ‘8 [Alexi, Professor of IR, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army, “Non-First Use as a Way of Outlawing Nuclear
Weapons” Research Paper commission for the Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament,
November, 2008, http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf]
However, as mentioned above, the main deficiency of the NFU idea is that it remains wishful thinking, completely
detached from real defense and security considerations of nuclear weapon states
...
Otherwise either the NFU pledge of nuclear powers will remain saturated with exemptions depriving it of any tangible
meaning – or such a pledge will be a PR exercise having no more sense than the Soviet pledge of 1982 (or for that
matter than China’s negative assurance of 1995 which will be addressed in more detail below).
Oelrich, ‘9 [Ivan, vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists, FAS Security
Blog, April 8, http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/04/ending-nuclear-counterforce.php]
While the language we use, our euphemisms, fools us into thinking that nuclear weapons are already restricted to this
thing called deterrence, whatever that is, that was not true during the Cold War and it is not true today.
…
By giving up a first strike capability the United States will increase the likelihood that it can negotiate down to a level
that it would have otherwise hoped to get to through a first strike.
Plan: The President of the United States of America should order the commander of the United States Strategic
Command to eliminate first-strike nuclear counterforce missions.
CHINA MODERNIZATION ADVANTAGE
Counterforce results in nuke arms race with China, heightening risk of use during a crisis
Lieber and Press 6 “End of Mad”
Our findings should lead…those seen for decades.
FIRST—CHINA IS INCREASING THE PACE OF MODERNIZATION AND RETHINKING ITS MINIMAL

DETERRENCE DOCTRINE – THE US IS KEY TO DRIVER IN THESE STRATEGIC CHANGES
Chase 2009 (“Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the United States,”
China Maritime Studies Institute, The Hournal of Strategic Studies – 32:1, Feb 2009)
The People’s Liberation Army … straight crisis or conflict?
DOCTRINAL CHANGE IN CHINA IS ON THE BRINK AND LEANING TOWARDS A SHIFT TO NUCLEAR WAR
FIGHTIN
Where the groundwork is … such a declaratory policy
DOCTRINAL SHIFTS LEADS TO AGGRESSIVE ESCALATION BY CHINA INVITING AN ESCALATING CONFLICT

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At the strategic level, … preparations for a nuclear first strike
AND DESPITE MODERNIZATION CHINA IS NOT DEPLOYING THE NEW WEAPONS BUT IS IN A POSITION IT
QUICKLY RAMP ON
Sokolski 2008 (“China and Nuclear Proliferation: Rethinking the Link,” Testimony before the US-China Economic and
Security Review Commission”
As already noted, it is … additional advanced nuclear weapons”
THAT STARTS NUCLEAR WAR

Cirincione 2000 (Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain)
“Unfortunately, these firewalls are” … tsunami from sweeping out of Asia
AND donctine shift makes de-escalation impossible –even post crisis scenarios will invite war
Fourth, the transition to … particularly for smaller nuclear power
US nuclear counterforce capability to in taiwin drives Chinese aggression –

Niou 2003 “nuclear deterrence over Taiwan”
Since 1950 the Us security commitment … considerably in China’s favor
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 5 (Aff vs. Northwestern)
New Plan
Plan: The President of the United States of America should order the commander of United States Strategic Command
to end missions required to carry out Major Attack Operations 1-4.
CHINA ADVANTAGE
Counterforce results in nuke arms race with China, heightening risk of use during a crisis
Lieber and Press 6 “End of Mad”
Our findings should lead…those seen for decades.
The pace of Chinese modernization is irrelevant—the perception triggers accidents and preemptive attacks
Lieber and Press 2007 “Superiority complex: why America’s growing nuclear supremacy may make war with China
more likely”
But America’s growing counterforce…meant to forestall.
TWO INTERNAL LINKS: FIRST IS CHINESE COUNTERFORCE

Counterforce triggers reciprocal Chinese nuclear buildup—this causes serious friction
Lieber and Press 07
How Will Russia and…considerable leap of faith.
Chinese reciprocity ensures nuke war over Taiwan-nationalism will dilute restraint—the risk grows daily
Schneider 2007 “The Nuclear Doctrine and Forces of the People’s Republic of China,”
The conventional wisdom is…process of war.
SECOND IS WAR DYNAMICS

US-China war due to counterforce is the deadliest war imaginable—the threat of nuclear strike is real and shapes and
outweighs every alt cause
Lieber and Press 07
In the coming years…the submarine missile arsenal.
The spiraling arms race, miscalc, accidents, and high alert ensure escalation
Lieber and Press “The End of MAD?”
The shift in the nuclear…United States (e.g., in Korea). N72
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Any risk of our internal link is a high risk for nuclear war
Corcoran 2008 “Strategic Nuclear Targets”
China is neither ally…few high-yield weapons.
Ending US counterforce will be modeled by China

nuclear modernizations… Chinese constraint on missile numbers, payload, and MIRVing will be easier.
PRIMACY ADVANTAGE
Unipolarity à GNW
Calleo 2k3 www.sais-jhu.edu/faculty/calleo/DGAP.doc
Military superiority is frequently vulnerable…carry a high risk of nuclear war.
Primacy will collapse inevitably

Pape 09
America is in unprecedented decline…may be our downfall.
This shapes the framing of the debate – primacy doesn’t solve heg and isn’t attainable
Clark 9 “Bringing hegemony back in: the United States and international order”
Above all, the richness of these…future international order.
Unipolarity heightens the likelihood of conflict

Ikenberry et al 9
Political scientists have placed…domestic political debate.
Unraveling will be slow but certain

Ikenberry 9
A second hypothesis, however, suggests…actual pursuit of private goods.
2AC SECRECY CARDS
SIOP is heavily classified – no civilian has ever seen it

Burr 4 “The Creation of SIOP” July 13 2004
Since it was first ccreated…the devil out of me.”
SIOP is the most secret government doc – even CONGRESS doesn’t know when changes are made
Mathew McKenzie et. Al 1 “The US Nuclear War Plan: A Time for a Chance”
Despite the end of the Cold War…reverential, almost Delphic awe.” 14
2AC CMR DISAD
CMR low now – NPR forces a huge battle

Ambinder 9/3
When a collection of nuclear arms control…but they declined to offer specifics.
Afghanistan constrains CMR Haddock 9/4

Gen. Stannley McChrystal’s report on…or for civil-military relations.
It’s the defining moment of CMR

Feaver 9/24
It is not good to have a document…thing for him to do.
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Even if the military is initially disappointed by the plan they’ll accepts it as the inevitable outcome of the political
process and keep chain of command
Scott Weston 8 http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2008/Dec/weston2Dec08.pdf

Minimal deterrence and eventual disarmament…that is all it has to work with.
Disputes in CMR with Obama are carefully managed and healthy for security
Biddle 9/23
As far as the civil-military relations aspects of this go…to avoid that are minor – are modest.
Intractable Issues
Hsai 8/25
Did the end of the draft, and the beginning of an all volunteer force dissolve…and intellectual laziness.
Iraaq, budgets, and priorities and social battles all prove

Kohn 8
While civil-military relations at the beginning…being the most incendiary.

NEW PLAN – usfg should eliminate first-strike nuclear counter-force missions.
CTR Advantage --
Obama is increasing funding for threat reduction assistance to Russia.

Harvey & Horner, ‘9
[Cole and Daniel, “Non-Proliferation Budget Sees Some Hikes” Arms Control Today, June, 2009,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_6/NonPro]
"The administration is asking for funding increases of 20 to 50 percent for various programs that aim to bolster nuclear
"
AND
""advanced safeguards approaches, technologies, and equipment" and to cultivate a new generation of safeguards
specialists. "
Unfortunately, US counterforce strategy increases mistrust and fears of espionage drawing CTR to a near standstill
Robichaud, ‘7
[Carl, Program Officer at The Century Foundation and co-editor of Breaking the Nuclear Impasse: New Prospects for
Security against Weapons Threats, “The Perils of Primacy” The Century Foundation, 9-5-2007,
http://www.tcf.org/print.asp?type=NC&pubid=1673]
"For decades during the Cold War, the United States sought nuclear primacy. Now it may be on the verge of achieving
it. As America’s "
AND
"reversed its post-Soviet economic decline, it now can afford to reverse a U.S. bid for nuclear primacy. "
Terror organizations are actively seeking nuclear weapons and capabilities – we dismiss the risk at our own peril.
Bunn, ‘8
[Matthew, Associate Professorat Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government Project on Managing
the Atom, Belfer Center Science and International Affairs and the Kennedy School for Government, “Securing the
Bomb 2008” November 2008, www.nti.org/securingthebomb]
"Do terrorists want nuclear weapons? For most terrorists, focused on small-scale violence to att ain local objectives,
the answer is “no.” But for a small set of "
AND
"Qaeda will succeed in recruiting nuclear guards, nuclear physicists, uranium metallurgists, and others who could help
the group fulfi ll its nuclear ambitions. "
Access to nuclear material from Russia could easily be fashioned into a bomb and exploded in the US – cooperative
programs are key to solving the risk, but are hampered by a slow pace.
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Gard, ‘8 [Robert, Sr. Military Fellow, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Nuclear Terrorism is a Likely
Event” Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, May 10, 2008,
http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nuclearterrorism/articles/nuclear_terrorism_likely_event/]
"At a Senate hearing recently, Undersecretary of Energy for Intelligence and Analysis Charles Allen testified, "Al-Qaida
wants a nuclear weapon to use." It is well-known that "
AND
"territory of the United States, which would forever change our way of life. "
Terror is the most likely scenario for nuclear use – ending joint mistrust in CTR is key to preventing attack.
Allison & Kokoshin, ‘2 [Graham & Andrei, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at
Harvard'’s Kennedy School & Director of the Institute for International Security Studies of the Russian Academy of
Sciences, “Bush and Putin Must confront Nuclear Terror” The Belfer Center, May, 2002,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1179/bush_and_putin_must_confront_nuclear_terror.html]
"If the United States or Russia finds itself the victim of a nuclear attack next week or next year, the perpetrator will
almost certainly "
AND
"joint programs bogged down on a timetable that extends into the next decade. "
Cooperative threat both precludes the risk of theft and makes deterrence more effective.
Levi, ‘4
[Micahel, a physicist, is the science and technology policy fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution
“Deterring Nuclear Terrorism” Science and Technology, Spring 2004,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2004/spring_technology_levi/20040401.pdf]
"Has terrorism made deterrence obsolete? President Bush articulated the prevailing view in his June 2002 West Point
address: "Deterrence—the promise of massive "
AND
"the right investment in cooperative threat reduction, that possibility can be precluded."
CTR is the single most effective tool in preventing nuclear terrorism.

Pena, ‘7
[Charles, “Cooperative Threat Reduction is Worth the Cost” Anti-War, June 20, 2007, http://www.antiwar.com/pena/?
articleid=11161]
"The concern about a nuclear terrorist attack prompted the creation within the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS) of the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office "
AND
"needed to build a nuclear device. "
An attack on the US leads to nuclear retaliation drawing in every major nuclear weapon state – the impact is extinction.
Corsi, ‘05
[Jerome, Columnist for WorldNetDaily and Ph.D. from Harvard University, “Atomic Iran: How the Terrorist Regime
Bought the Bomb and American Politicians” April 20]
"In the span of less than one hour, the nation's largest city will have been virtually wiped off the map. Removal of
debris will take several years, and "
AND
"somebody. The American people would feel a price had to be paid while the country was still capable of exacting
revenge. "
AT: HEALTH CARE DISAD
Turn capital –
A. Capital sepdning inev – plan can only build it
Jill Lawrence, Obama to world: we’re back and ready to ratify, 2009, www.politicsdaily.com/2009/07/08/obamas-
mission-reviving-stalled-treaties
“Obama is moving ahead…university of southern California”
B. reverse-causal comparative ev based ona study
John Steinbrunner and Nancy Gallagher, 2008, if you lead they will follow
“yet, should a leader choose…effective international verification.”
The stars are aligning for the turn – link UQ only goes one way but the SQ won’t solve the aff
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Ivan oelrich, 9/24, net obama speech: the pentagon, www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/09/next-obama-speech-the-

pentagon.php
“president obama has once again…not to settle for gradualism.”
Turn outweighs the link – wins outweigh costs
Lincoln Mitchell, 2009, time for obama to start spending political capital, huffington post
“throughout his presidential campaign…likely most important, test.”
Double bind – obama either restrains himself and there’s no push or he pushes and it solves the internal link
Martin Matishak, 2009, experts warn npt conference will test obama’s nonproliferation goals
“the president’s personal involvement…according to Dunn.”
NPR provides political cover
Micah Zenko, 2009, Ban the bomb? Ask the generals
“Once the nuclear posture review…must take the first step.”
Backlash is limited
Melanie Kirkpatrick 2009, why we don’t want a nuclear-free world,
online.wsj.com/article/SB124726489588925407.html
“Mr. Schlesinger sees another…ignore it at their peril”
Already used substantial polcap on nuclear issues
Richard Lardner, 2009, defense secretary scores big wins on weapons cuts
“the grounding of the $65…Capitol Hill’s help with.”
DISAD/CP ANSWERS
Plan à low yield easier delivery = better managed

Kriestensen, Norris, & Oelrich 09 –
Kw – the composition of the nuclear force structure à nuclear command and control system.
The plan does not prevent updates to Weapons that decrease yields
Kriestensen et al – above
Kw – a common argument in favor of new à requirements can be relaxed
Deter 2ac
Smart conventional weapons solve the link bu avoid our turns
Gromley 06 – survival – 48:3 – Autumn, -
Kw – America can confidently turn to convetional weapons to meet à would entail
Commander of stratcom agrees

Gromley 06 – same as above
Kw – even if US intelligence managed to obtain the targeting à through multiple attacks
Turn o/w – they don’t have an internal to conflict escalation –

Edwoard a. Corcoran – “Strategic nuclear weapons and deterrence” 11-29-05
Kw – strategic nuclear weapons on the other hand à could easily act similarly
Neg’s only direct link is damage limitation – only a risk relying on cforce leads to assertive fopo that increases the risk
of nuclear attack
Glaser and fetter, counterforce revistited, 2005
“Other roles for nuclear counterforce…probability of nuclear war.”
Cforce undermines deterrence – flex only makes the hit worse

Brian Hall, overkill is not dead, 1998
“the military has always devoted itself…escalate to nuclear use.”
Cforce magnifies the size of conflict by forcing a first strike – deterrence would be useless
Ochmanek and Schwartz, the challenge of nuclear-armed regional adversaries, 2008
“In several conflicts, …to escalate to nuclear use.”
PRIMACY EXTENSIONS
AT: Ferguson
Ferugson concedes near term shift to multipol inev
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Ferguson 09
The bad news for Bush’s successor…of upheaval starts now.
Lack of GPW in unipol is coincidence

Ikenberry et al 09 “Unipolarity, State Beehavior, and Systemic Consequences” World Politics Vol 61 Num 1 January 09
Two major theoretical traditions…little to do with unipolarity.
AT: Balancing = Soft
Even soft balancing upsets unipolarity and it’s inevitable

Nexon 09
Aspects of both theories…toward preeminent powers. 30
Unipolarity makes heg collapse inevitable

Ikenberry et al 09
Articles in this special issue argue that…preponderant capabilities of the United States.
Unipol collapses heg – bargain failure, dependence, free riding, and die off
Ikenberry et al 09
A third research area concerns how unipolarity…becomes relatively less capable.
Try or die – unipol causes internal unraveling

Ikenberry et al 09
Political scientists have placed greater emphasis on…in domestic political debate.
Plan: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE FIRST STRIKE NUCLEAR
COUNTERFORCE CAPABILITIES RELATED TO DAMAGE LIMITATION. WE'LL CLARIFY.
Russia adv--same except a little shorter--corcoran card a new "use or lose" mentality card then the impacts.
Primacy adv--same internal links---impacts are: unipolarity enables colonialism and imperialism, plan leads to new
relationships which break down security concerns and prevents anhiliation.
solvency-at bottom they read a "we're deliberative democracy and thats good" section
New 1ac Cards:
Creating a trans-civilizational society is crucial to re-framing academic paradigms to prevent coloization and anhiliation
Makarand Paranjape 2000, "Re-thinking America: A Trans-Civilizational Approach," Advantages of A Trans-
Civilzational Approach...I have outlined briefly, will enable.
Unipolarity makes global imperialism, colonialism, and genocide inevitable via military technological dominance--plan
is crucial to a return to principled politics
Makarand Paranjape 2000, "Re-thinking America: A Trans-Civilizational Approach,"
Yet, even granting the Americans...said worse about themselves.
Public debates about unipolarity among university undergraduates are key to shaping policy--this approach is key to
civic engagement
Lepgold and Nincic 2001 "Beyond the Ivory Tower: Interntional Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy Relevance,"
p. 6-7
This broad purpose covers...outside the ivory tower.
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Our advocacy solves the impact turns--the deliberative democratic approach to security ensures that all opinions are
subject to scrutiny. The risks of the critique of security being depoliticized and intemeshed with violence are prevented
by constant renegotiation of opinions and views in a democratic forum
Loader and Walker 2007, Civilizing Security, p. 227-231
Reasons---or, more accurately...the public in question.
2AC – Referendum Counterplan
Modifying the arsenal is highly controversial, contentious and risky

Harris 5 “The Nuclear Force Postures, powerpolitics.org
“The issue should really be divided…counterproductive and wasteful policy”
Link outweighs the turn- comparative evidence

Falk 9-24, “Obama and Nukes: Talking the Talk and Awaiting the walk” www.miller-mccune.com
“We have to acknowledge that the place where democracy seems to be least effective…invariably arouses formidable
bureaucratic resistance”
Leadership cant sovle entrenched bureaucracy or control spin.

Falk and Kreiger, 9-24 “Obama and Nukes: Talking the Talk and Awaiting the walk” www.miller-mccune.com
“DK: we don’t yet know how the new negotiations. .. in favor of denuclearizing initiatives and visions”
GOP will blast concessions- their leverage on nuclear issues is huge.

Solanki, ‘9 “Obama fightes US Republicans and blue dog dems on nuclear treaty and concessions with Russia” 7-27
India Daily
“the us lawmakers, especially the Republicans…obama or the shadow of the failed president george w. bush!”
GOP support is make or break

Tomasky 9-8, “Why Obama needa big play as a reality take over” Gaurdian
“It’s football season in America. They file their candidates, are egging the lunacy on”
Turn- Agenda overlaod cuases massive capital expenditure and failure.

Ornstein ‘9, “Barack Vs. The Hill” The New Republic 3-12
“If the prediednt’s agenda were relegated only to fixing…some more republicans, especially in the senate, to make up
the slack”
2AC – Chaloupka Kritik
Turn- reprsentations of nuclear war are key to delegitimizing use and preventing extinction
Lee, 93, Morality, prudence and nuclear weapons p, 325-28
“The problem lies in the fact that the habits of delegitimation….image psychologically depends on constant re-
reminders.”
Your psychological critique of nuclear weapons is a fantasy that never affects policymaker. Your focus tradesoff with
policy solutions that can avert the nuclear danger.
Blight 88 “Must the Psychology of Avoiding nucearl war remain free and insignificant?” American Psychologist April
43:4
“Psychologists concerened with involving themselves professionally…been too heavy for most psychologists to bear.”
Even oif the root of the nuclear threat is psychological, the world does not operate under the ondions the alternative
assumes. Internationl Relations are more like gangland than a doctors office. Your alternative has zero change of
tansforming society.
Blight 87 “Towards a policy-relevant psychology of avoiding nuclear war: lessons for Psychologists from the Cuban
missle crisis” American Psychologists Janurary 42.1
“Why should this be so? Why have the patients seemed to be so incorrigibly…nuclear policymakers believe they face.”
Analyzing potential nuclear crisis and developing policy solutions is vital to averting nuclear war.
Blight 87 “Towards a policy-relevant psychology of avoiding nuclear war: lessons for Psychologists from the Cuban
missle crisis” American Psychologists Janurary 42.1
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“What, then is to be done by those who seek a policy-relevant psychology…intelligible form to succeeding leadership.
Round 5 Georgia State versus Wake CC

*2AC Politics
Obama losing capital now – plan would rebuild it, only turn is causal
Lawrence, 2009, “Obama to World: We’re Back and Ready to Ratify”
“Obama is moving ahead of his own in some…director of the Center for International Studies at the University of
Southern California.”
Reducing the role and size of the arsenal builds capital – studies prove
Steinbrunner and Gallagher, “If you lead, they will follow: Public Opinion and Repairing the U.S.-Russian Strategic
Relationship”
“Yet, should a leader choose the path of nuclear cooperation, our poll results…action could be taken under effective
international verification.”
The only way to generate new capital is to spend it and win
Lincoln Mitchell, 2009, “Time for Obama to start Spending Political Capital”
“Throughout his presidential campaign, but more notably, during his…health care will be the first and very likely most
important, test.
GSU PLAN Rds 1-4
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE NUCLEAR COUNTERFORCE

CAPABILITIES RELATED TO DAMAGE LIMITATION. WE'LL CLARIFY.
GSU PLAN Rd 5 v Wake CC --> Finals
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE FIRST STRIKE NUCLEAR
COUNTERFORCE CAPABILITIES RELATED TO DAMAGE LIMITATION. WE'LL CLARIFY.
GSU Aff Disclosure

ADVANTAGE ONE: ACCIDENTS
Counterforce is strategically bankrupt – it increases the scope and risks of accidental nuclear war with Russia by
fueling hair-trigger alert that would escalate – US removal of counterforce would spur cooperation
Corcoran, ‘5.
[Edward A. Corcoran LTC Edward Corcoran, USA-retired, Ph.D., serves as a Senior Fellow on national security issues
at GlobalSecurity.org. Ed ended his military career as a Strategic Analyst at the US Army War College where he
chaired studies for the Office of the Deputy Chief of Operations. “STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
DETERRENCE ,” 29 November 2005, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/sndeterrence.htm ]
Old habits die hard. … It would improve security for both sides as well as providing incentive to President Putin to
revitalize cooperation with the West.
The risk of US – Russian accidental war are high - three reasons -

First, the accidents risks are uniquely higher in Russia due to failed warning systems.
Mosher, ‘3
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[David, Senior Policy Analyst for the RAND corporation, “Beyond the Nuclear Shadow: A Phased Approach for
improving Nuclear Safety and US-Russia Relations”
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/MR1666.ch2.pdf]
Nuclear forces at a high state of readiness … specific Russian targets in order to fulfill the U.S. deterrence criteria.
Second - high alert leads to pre-delegation, and shorter response times, massively increasing the risks of accidents.
Mosher, ‘3
This high level of launch readiness in both … it would need to maintain control over the missiles for only a short time in
order to launch them.
Finally, escalation is ensured – Dead Hand will automatically launch on warning.
Mosher, ‘3
When the perceived vulnerability of Russia’s nuclear forces and command and control … At this point, however, there
is serious debate about this system’s existence.
The risk is real – many opportunities for miscalculation exist between Russia and the US.
Hellman, ‘8
[Martin, Professor, Stanford University, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” The bent of Tau Beta Pi, Spring, 2008,
http://www.nuclearrisk.org/1why_now.php]
There are many potential triggers for World War III, … Israel and its neighbors have resulted in nuclear threats
between the superpowers, and could again in the future.
The risk of deterrence failure is high and increases as steadily as solutions are deferred.
Hellman, ‘8
[Martin, Professor, Stanford University, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” The bent of Tau Beta Pi, Spring, 2008,
A full-scale nuclear war is not the only threat to humanity’s continued existence, and we should allocate resources
commensurate with the various risks… In that case, we must immediately start work to reduce the risk of a failure of
nuclear deterrence and not stop until it reaches an acceptable level.
The US-Russia arsenals put human extinction only 5 minutes away from miscalculated launch.
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Ira Helfand, M.D., and John O. Pastore, M.D., ‘9 – Past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility. “U.S.-
Russia nuclear war still a threat,” 3-31, http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-
09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html.
Since the end of the Cold Wa r… Presidents Obama and Medvedev can do this on their own by executive order.
Even a limited attack would end life on Earth.
Hellman, ‘8
[Martin, Professor, Stanford University, “Defusing the Nuclear Threat: A primer” Spring, 2008,
There are two primary failure modes of deterrence: a partial one that results in either a nuclear terrorist incident … and
there a reasonable possibility that no human beings would survive.
The plan is immediately modeled by Russia – increasing trust and cooperation.
nuclear modernizations… Chinese constraint on missile numbers, payload, and MIRVing will be easier.
Damage limitation sends a profound global signal against nuclear security – the perception of the plan alone would be
a large step forwards
Klein et al, ‘8. Brian Klein Scoville Fellow Global Security Program. Sean Meyer Project Manager, U.S. Nuclear
Weapons Policy Global Security Program. Lisbeth Gronlund Co-Director & Senior Scientist Global Security Program.
“Memo Debunking the Damage Limitation Strategy,” 12-15,
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/nuclear_weapons/policy_issues/memo-debunking-
damage.html.
Damage limitation advocates refuse to acknowledge … The damage limitation strategy would be a hedge against the
worst, but it would not bring the United States closer to true security.
Ending counterforce as a mission de-escalates tensions with Russia and is key to any future negotiations on limits to
numbers and posture.
Oelrich, ‘9
[Ivan, vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists, FAS Security Blog, April
8, http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/04/ending-nuclear-counterforce.php]
There are three things we describe in this paper. … the United States will increase the likelihood that it can negotiate
down to a level that it would have otherwise hoped to get to through a first strike.
ADVANTAGE TWO is PRIMACY –
First, counterforce targeting fuels and locks in nuclear primacy
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For nearly half a century, the world's most powerful nuclear-armed states have been locked in a condition of mutual
assured destruction… n9 Nuclear weapons may no longer produce the peace-inducing stalemate that they did during
the Cold War. n10
Counterforce is the *key internal link* to nuclear primacy
Marko, 6-15-09. PhD from Monash University, masters focusing on nuclear strategy. “US Nuclear Strategy and the
Counterforce Mission,” http://scisec.net/?p=147.
One final point must be made… Absent this I am not optimistic about a move toward mutual deterrence at low
numbers.
Two internal links – FIRST is SUPERPOWER WAR –
Conflicts will escalate to great power nuclear warfare – perception-based conflict will fuel arms races, accidents, and
unauthorized use – *even if* Russia and China don’t modernize it will still trigger nuclear war in a crisis
One might argue that the various new U.S. initiatives discussed above do not reflect the deliberate pursuit of nuclear
primacy,… In a new era of U.S. nuclear primacy, U.S. policymakers may once again be tempted to consider nuclear
escalation during intense crises or if nonnuclear military operations go unexpectedly badly for the United States (e.g.,
in Korea). n72
SECOND is TRANSITION –
Primacy will inevitably collapse – attempts to reform the squo accelerate decline – only a shift in strategy can soften
the effects of America’s landing
Robert A. Pape, ‘9. “Empire Falls,” The National Interest, January 2009 - February 2009. Lexis.
AMERICA IS in unprecedented decline. … our own hubris may be our downfall.
Multipolarity is coming – global balance is key to preventing extinction
Feffer, ‘9. John, Contributing Member/Researcher at Foreign Policy in Focus, “World Beat,” FPIF, Feb 17. Vol. 4 No. 7.
Lexis.
The neoconservative movement thrilled to what it called the "unipolar moment." … Debt has been the gravedigger of
many an empire. I can hear the adding machine totting up the numbers.
‘Heg bad’ isn’t responsive – it speaks to a type and not a trait of power – unipolarity is distinct
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Ikenberry et al, ‘9. “Unipolarity, State Behavior, and Systemic Consequences,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1,
January.
Scholars use the term unipolarity to distinguish a system with one extremely capable state from systems with two or
more great powers (bi-, tri-, and multipolarity)…conventionally defined as size of population and territory, resource
endowment, economic capacity, military might, and organizational-institutional “competence.”8
*Even if* primacy is good, counterforce decimates the available arsenal and allows a third nation to assume primacy
Wirtz, ‘7. “The Short Shadow of U.S. Primacy?” International Security 31.3 (2007)
There is a final irony embodied in Lieber and Press's scenario… Given the variety of dynamics that might animate
multipolar nuclear relationships, it might be time to explore the nature and points of crisis stability among several states
that possess nuclear arsenals that differ in size and survivability.
OBSERVATION TWO – SOLVENCY
The plan solves escalation and miscalculation risks – comparatively ending the counterforce mission is the most
effective way to reduce all current posture risks.
Dr Marko Beljac, ‘9. “The Case for Minimum Nuclear Deterrence,” Science and Global Security, 7-24-09,
http://scisec.net/?p=154.
Nuclear war can best be seen as a form of risk externality. … But everything has its proper time and place.
Declaratory policy alone is only propaganda unless our missions change.
Arbatov, ‘8
[Alexi, Professor of IR, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army, “Non-First Use as a Way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons”
Research Paper commission for the Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, November, 2008,
http://www.icnnd.org/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf]
However, as mentioned above, the main deficiency of the NFU idea is that it remains wishful thinking, completely
detached from real defense and security considerations of nuclear weapon states.…or such a pledge will be a PR
exercise having no more sense than the Soviet pledge of 1982 (or for that matter than China’s negative assurance of
1995 which will be addressed in more detail below).
Only the case can solve – counterforce is the mission that drives ALL US nuclear doctrinal requirement – ONLY A
DRIRECT order from the president can change how STRATCOM targets.
Kriestensen, Norris & Oelrich, ‘9
[Hans, Robert & Ivan, “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Posture an the Path Toward
eliminating Nuclear Weapons” Occasional Paper No. 7, April 2009,
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf]
This report argues that, as long as the United States continues these nuclear missions unjustifiably held over from the
Cold War, nuclear weapons will contribute more to the nation’s and the world’s insecurity than they contribute to their
security. …Nuclear weapons are so destructive that much smaller forces, of initially 1,000 warheads, and later a few
hundred warheads, are more than adequate to serve as a deterrent against anyone unwise enough to attack the
United States with nuclear weapons.
SUBS POSTURE ADV @ GSU Finals
Nuclear counterforce distorts Russian threat perception and ensures Russian nuclear modernization and posturing
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on military analysis projects for the U.S. Department of Defense for 13 years, and is associate professor of
government at Dartmouth College. “The Short Shadow of U.S. Primacy?” International Security 31.3 (2007) 174-193,
Muse.
How Will Russia and China Respond to U.S Nuclear Primacy? … Former Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar
Predicts That Russian concerns about U.S. nuclear primacy will trigger increased spending on Russia's nuclear
forces.5
The recent nuclear subs incident locks the US and Russia into a nuclear standoff – future Russian involvement in the
Western hemisphere is inevitable and heightens US nuclear capabilities
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, 8-11-09. Professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College. Former Editor of
The National Interest magazine and a Senior Fellow of Strategic Studies at The Nixon Center in Washington, DC.
Former Rhodes Scholar. “The Russians are Coming?” Global Security,
http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090811443-the-russians-are-coming-3.htm.
Have we gone back in time? Russian bombers shadow U.S. naval vessels in the Pacific; … If the
United States involves itself in what Russia sees as its neighborhood, then the Western Hemisphere is not off limits to
Moscow. Expect these missions to continue--but recognize them for what they are.
Muscle-flexing is targeted at the US and fuels a growing trend of provocative acts and threats
Peter Brookes, 8-7-09. Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense.
“WARNING SIGN,” New York Post,
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08072009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/warning_sign_183368.htm.
First, there's international politics. The Russians are trying to exert themselves as a great power … Which raises the
question: What's Russia's next move along these lines? That's something the Pentagon and its superiors should be
worrying about now.
The Pentagon perceives subs as Russian reassertion of military might

NPR, 8-5-09. “Russian Sub Patrols Reminiscent Of Cold War,” http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?
storyId=111589232&ft=1&f=1004.
MELISSA BLOCK, host: Now to a story that sounds as if it were ripped from the pages of a Cold War spy novel. ….
And we note it, and we're mindful of it but again, no one here is overly concerned by it.
Specifically, new anti-submarine technology will enhance the threat of US nuclear counterforce, culminating in
uncontrollable nuclear escalation
Benjamin Schwarz, ‘6. Editor of the Atlantic. “The Perils of Primacy,” The Atlantic, January/February,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/primacy.
These improvements are inconsistent with the aim of simply deterring an adversary's nuclear attack—a goal that would
require merely a "countervalue" strike on the enemy's cities. … The ramifications of this state of affairs are of the
gravest significance to America's security—and the world's. It's time for scrutiny and debate to begin.
Counterforce provokes the highest likelihood of a Russian strike – a single launch would cause total devastation –
unilateral reductions reflect a posture that enables effective dialogue without any hit to deterrence
Corcoran, ‘5. Edward A. Corcoran LTC Edward Corcoran, USA-retired, Ph.D., serves as a Senior Fellow on national
security issues at GlobalSecurity.org. Ed ended his military career as a Strategic Analyst at the US Army War College
where he chaired studies for the Office of the Deputy Chief of Operations. “STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
DETERRENCE,” 29 November 2005, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/sndeterrence.htm
A counterforce attack, no matter how effective, would essentially be committing national suicide. … A hard look at the
continuing utility of strategic nuclear weapons needs to be a key part of any such review.
Ending counterforce solves accidental and determined weapons launch and nuclear war
Glaser & Fetter, ‘5 [Charles & Steve, Professor and Deputy Dean of the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public
Policy Studies at the University of Chicago & Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland
“Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear Posture Review’s New Missions” International Security, 30:2, 2005]
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We have found at most a very limited set of scenarios in which nuclear counterforce missions might increase U.S.
security … These costs lead us to conclude that the United States should not rely on nuclear counterforce to reduce
the constraining effects of nuclear proliferation on its foreign policy.
Mole Add-On
Counteforce collapses security – targeting directly heightens the risk of nuclear conflict
Ed Corcoran, ‘9. Edward A. Corcoran LTC Edward Corcoran, USA-retired, Ph.D., serves as a Senior Fellow on
national security issues at GlobalSecurity.org. Ed ended his military career as a Strategic Analyst at the US Army War
College where he chaired studies for the Office of the Deputy Chief of Operations. “STRATEGIC NUCLEAR
TARGETS,” 4-21, http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090421301-strategic-nuclear-targets.htm.
- Cyber attacks are rated by the FBI as a threat second only to nuclear war and weapons of mass destruction. … And
depending on the circumstances, an insider action could be mistakenly evaluated as an intended action, sparking a
nuclear conflict.
UNIPOLARITY IMPACT ADD-ONs @ GSU FINALS

Unipolarity exacerbates the risks of economic shocks, disease, and environmental collapse
Jervis, ‘9. Robert, professor of international politics at Columbia University. “Unipolarity; A Structural Perspective.”
World Politics. Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009. Lexis.
A related question is what kinds of threats can challenge the security of the unipole and which ones cannot. … On
balance, then, we are left with only the milder conclusion that even if unipolarity almost by definition involves [End
Page 193] security against other state actors in the system, it is not necessarily stable against all forms of threat.
(_) New pandemics cause extinction

Greger, ‘6 – Director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at The Humane Society of the United States [Michael,
graduate of the Cornell University School of Agriculture and the Tufts University School of Medicine. Also an
internationally recognized lecturer, he has presented at the Conference on World Affairs, the National Institutes of
Health, and the International Bird Flu Summit, among countless other symposia and institutions. “Get rid of the ‘if.’This
is going to occur.” http://www.Birdflubook.com]
Other public health authorities have expressed similar sentiments on a global scale. …“The reality is that if a pandemic
hits,” explained the executive director of Trust for America’s Health, a public health policy group, “it’s not just a health
emergency. It’s the big one.”584
(_) The loss of biodiversity is incalculably disastrous

Chen, 2K (Chen, Jim. Professor. Law. Vance K. Opperman Research Scholar. Law School. University of Minnesota .
"Globalization and its Losers." Minnesota Journal of Global Trade. 9 Minn. J. Global Trade 157. Winter, 2000. Lexis-
Nexis.)
The value of endangered species and the biodiversity they embody is "literally ... incalculable." 343 … Natural
evolution may in due course renew the earth with a diversity of species approximating that of a world unspoiled by
Homo sapiens -- in ten million years, perhaps a hundred million.
(___) Loss of growth guarantees global nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfield, ‘8 [Mr. Friedberg is a professor of politics and international relations at Princeton
University's Woodrow Wilson School. Mr. Schoenfeld, senior editor of Commentary, is a visiting scholar at the
Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, N.J., “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, WSJ, 10-21,
http://online.wsj.vom/articles/SB122455074012352571.html]
Then there are the dolorous consequences of a potential collapse of the world's financial architecture. … Today we run
the risk that rogue states may choose to become ever more reckless with their nuclear toys, just at our moment of
maximum vulnerability.
Deterrence 2AC
Counterforce not key
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Beljac 09 7/2 "the case for tailored deterrence...instantly rendered superfluous"
Zero link
Corcoran 05
"the united states could...challenges facing the nation"
we control conflict escalation internals

Corcoran 05
"strategic nuclear weapons...could easily act similarly"
conventional deterrence solves

Gromley 06 "Securing Nuclear Obscolesence" Survival 48.3 p. 127-148
"america can confidently...would entail"
STRATCOM concurs
Gromley 06
"even if US intelligence...through multiple attacks"
solves CBW
Blair et al 2008
"however, chemical weapons...just such considerations"
Counterforce worsens deterrence

Hall 1998
"the military has always devoted itself...to expand their resources"
Consult 2AC
No solvo advocate – plan is a nuclear secret which is distinct – CP crushes ground and equity
Mckenzie et al 1 “The US Nuclear War Plan: A Time for a Change,” online
Despite the end of the Cold War, two features of the SIOP…reverential, almost Delphic awe.
Rising expectations turn

National Journal 2 “One Thing That Did Not Change: How the World Sees America”
Sometimes, admittedly, it is tempting…all the more furiously for reneging on its promises.
IBC Turn:
Consult causes it
Newsom 92 The Allies and Arms Control, p. 282
The reluctance of an administration to consult fully with the Congress…cause serious executive-legislative tensions.
Causes prolif, AIDS, envtl collapse

Jamison 93 “Executive-Legislative Relations After the Cold War,” Wash Quarterly
Indeed there are very few domestic issues that do not…dialogue that goes beyond the executive branch (Mann 1990,
28-29).
Envtl collapse = extinction

Yu 9 “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of our Fate”
All five mass extinctions of the past…although extinction rates fluctuate over time.
AIDS causes extinction

Yu 9 above
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In the past, humans have indeed…weakening of the immune system.
Say no and delay – Okazaki 7-2 2009 “Pro-Japan Obama officials could deepen the alliance”
Now the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance rests not…can be expected for the country is political paralysis.
Delay – Japan Times 2, “Economic policy adrift”

However, Mr. Takenaka and his task force…usual route of prior consultation.
GSU Octos 1AC
US nuclear primacy is part and parcel with the US imperial project of domination of the world through expanded
nuclear capability through threats of first strike
Gerson 07 (Joseph, “Beyond Empire and the Bomb” Common Dreams, online)
I want to thank gensuikyo. . .abolition with new resolve
The preservation of US primacy has historically manifests itself in racist and imperial practices that sacrifice the life to
persuade the world of its dominance
Gerson 07 (Joseph, Empire and the Bomb, pp 40-1)
Four calculations drove. . .life-ending nuclear winter
The atrocities at Nagasaki and Hiroshima illustrate the direct utilization of the imperial drive that sacrificed Japan as a
testing ground for nuclear primacy
Gerson 07 (Joseph, Empire and the Bomb, pg 15-17
Although it is not. . .Pakistan and North Korea
US nuclear primacy is built on a racist strategy to cure the diseases of the Japanese savages
Gerson 07 (Joseph Empire and the Bomb, pg 45
Political decisions including. . .wiped off the face of the earth
The violence of American nuclear imperialism is rooted in an objectification of the through the technostrategic
discourse of late capitalism whose homogenizing view leads to the destruction of difference and legitimates the
expansion of capitalist exploitation for too long this view of the globe has been the foundation of first world views that
have lead to marginilizations of populations. These vision of the globe informs the entirety of American culture. The
debate community is part and parcel with this system of exclusion as debate arguments and research practices create
a false sense of omnipotence about global politics this vision is predicated on a uniquely western vantage point that
continues the suppression of difference
Kato 93 (Masahide, ‘nuclear Globalism: Traversing Rockets, Satellites and Nuclear war via the strategic gaze”
Alternatives, 18)
As I have argued, the objectification. . .progression of capitalism
The Western Rationality that drives US nuclear primacy is responsible for ongoing and racist nuclear war atrocities of
nuclear use in Japan and ongoing nuclear conflict against indigenous and Fourth World peoples is the ultimate
example of the worst forms of strategy
Kato 93 (Masahide, ‘nuclear Globalism: Traversing Rockets, Satellites and Nuclear war via the strategic gaze”
Alternatives, 18)
The vigorous invasion of. . .Nations almost on a daily basis
Plan – the United States will end all activities which attempt to enshrine American nuclear primacy.
2 Vote aff – this is crucial to unraveling the construction of global space and time that is leading to the extermination of
the periphery. Only our aff allows for a reinvention of space allowing marginalized communities to resist the global
integration of capital – this unraveling of technostrategic discourse is vital not just to end US primacy but in the
reformulation of debate and debate research practices. We must end the debate community’s neutralization of space
through the technosubjectivization of the glove which is predicated on a belief in western omnipotence
Kato, polisci uni of Hawaii, 93, “Nuclear Globalism: Traversing Rockets, Satellites, and Nuclear War via the Strategic
Gaze,” Alternatives 18
“Frederic jameson’s proposed formula to cope…space against the global integration of capital.”
3 Only by total abandonment of technosubjectivity as the first step can we create meaningful opposition to the
extermination of the periphery
Kato 93
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“the question now becomes: can there be…face to face with the “real” of the latter.”
Policy focus is good and turns their offense
Themba-Nixon 2k (makani, Changing the rules what public policy means for organizing Colorlines 3.2)
This is all about policy. . .committed to making it so
The focus on methodology, epistemology, and ontology destroy the effectiveness of theory- only by refocusing our
discussions on practical policy matters can allow theory to resonate outside the debate
Lepgold and Nincic 2k1 (Joseph and Miroslav, Beyond the Ivory Towre: International Relations Theory and the Issue
of policy relevance pg 6-7)
This broad purpose covers. . .outside the ivory tower
GSU Octos 2AC
The focus on methodology, epistemology and ontology destroy the effectiveness of theory – only by refocusing our
discussions on practical policy matters can allow theory to resonate outside of the debate
Lepgold and Nincic 2001

[Joseph, associate professor of Government at Georgetown and Miroslav professor of political science at UC-Davis,
Beyond the Ivory Tower: International Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy Relevance pg. 6-7]
This broad purpose covers a lot of specific ground… to resonate outside the ivory tower
Unmarked cultural spaces are not whiteness they are a radical new imagination of how we can be in the world – only
this opening of space allows us to transcend existential death and racialized violence
Robinson 2000
[Reginald Leaman, Professor of Law at Harvard University, “Symposium: The first National meeting of the regional
people of color legal scholarship conferences: celebrating our emerging voices: people of color speak: “expert”
knowledge: introductory comments on race conciousness” Boston College Third World Law Journal Winter 20 B.C.
Third World L.J. 145]
Can blacks, whites, and others who have for hundreds of years… Is love possible? Is freedom possible?
Saying “we don’t exclude those people” is the link – It’s the omission that creates the black/white paradigm with
effaces difference
Perea 1997
[Juan F., Professor of law university of Florida, Race, Ethnicity & Nationhood: Article: The Black/White Binary
Paradigm of Race: The “Normal Science” of American Racial Thought October 85 Calif. L. Rev. 1213]
Thomas Kuhn, in the Structure of Scientific Revolutions, describes the properties of paradigms and their power…
presentation of the evolution of equality doctrines.
The negative’s discussion of race makes individuals only intelligible through the black/white paradigm
Perea 1997
[Juan F., Professor of law university of Florida, Race, Ethnicity & Nationhood: Article: The Black/White Binary
Paradigm of Race: The “Normal Science” of American Racial Thought October 85 Calif. L. Rev. 1213]
Paradigms of race shape our understanding of race and our definition of racial problems… “those that will not fit the
box are often not seen at all.”
Reject the affirmative – they are an inappropriate method for analyzing social relations – their monolithic conception of
whiteness and white privilege short-circuits access to solvency and leads to the duplication of stereotypes
Hartigan 2005
[John, associate professor of anthropology at Texas, “Odd Tribes: Toward a Cultural Analysis of White People, pg.
279-282]
At stake in these various critiques of whiteness is the matter of whether this mode of inquiry is a reliable means… self-
reflection about these types of problems.
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UNLV Bato/Meneses (Subs) [Travis]
UNLV at Gonzaga tournament
Plan: The United States federal government should prohibit forward deployed ballistic missile-carrying submarine
patrols within 6,000 nautical miles of Russia
Sub Bumping Advantage

Advantage I is Sub-Bumping
1. Deployment of submarines off the Russian coast is a remaining Cold War nuclear mission and role that carries
devastating risks
Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists et al., 9 [Hans M., who
is also the co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear
Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook, Robert S. Norris, senior research associate with the Natural Resources
Defense Council nuclear program and director of the Nuclear Weapons Databook project, and Ivan Oelrich, vice
president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists and author of Missions for Nuclear
Weapons after the Cold War, “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward
Eliminating Nuclear Weapons”, pg. 20, AVLB]
http://www.fas.org/pubs/_pages/occ_pap7.html
Similarly, we rarely find …flight speed of the delivery vehicles.

2. U.S. subs patrolling around Russian coast will lead to sub bumping and hostility between the two countries
Miasnikov, Ph. D in Physics-Oceanography, 98 [Eugene, who got his Ph.D. from the Moscow Institute of Physics and
Technology and who is a Senior Research Scientist @MIPT, “Collision of Two U.S. Nuclear Powered Submarines on
March 19, 1998”, http://www.armscontrol.ru/subs/collisions/comm0319.htm#smi, AVLB]
* U.S. attack submarines are technically ….building confidence between the U.S. and Russia.
3. Sub bumping results in the release of radioactive nuclear materials and the breakup of missiles-Empirical evidence
proves
Technology and who is a Senior Research Scientist @MIPT, “Preventing Submarine Collisions: Answers to the
questions of U.S. nationwide policy debaters”, http://www.armscontrol.ru/subs/collisions/debates.htm , AVLB]
The danger of a collision is … the U.S. submarine as well.
4. Submarine impact is the biggest chance for nuclear disaster through the ‘popcorning’ effect-subs close to the coast
are the biggest risk
Edwards, environment journalist of the year in the British Environment and Media Awards, 8 [Rob, freelance journalist
who specializes in environmental issues, “Could Nuclear Warheads Go Off ‘like popcorn’”, June 26th,
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826625.000-could-nuclear-warheads-go-off-like-popcorn.html, AVLB]
YOU might think nuclear …."It's a very, very scary thought."
5. Removing from Russian territorial waters solves-most likely scenario for a collision
Q: It appears that you … deeper trust in each other to make this possible.
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6. A Single Accidental Launch Would Kill Billions In An Escalating Conflict

PR Newswire, 4-29-98
An 'accidental' nuclear attack would … be all but impossible, according to Forrow and his colleagues.
* "An ‘accidental’ nuclear attack would... according to Forrow and his colleagues."
Launch on Warning Advantage

Advantage II is Launch on Warning
1. The presence of U.S. subs causes a Russian “launch-on-warning” strategy-leads to a Russian first strike when
benign events are confused for U.S. strikes. The timeframe is immediate.
Nuclear Threat Reduction Campaign, a program of Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation and The Justice Project,
8 [“U.S.-Russian Ballistic-Missile Early-Warning Cooperation”, 1/22, http://www.veteransforamerica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2008/01/22-early-warning-final.pdf, AVLB]
I. The Issue Background The United States’ … catastrophic nuclear launch by Russia on the United States was
averted.
2.Russian accidental launch is a huge risk to the U.S.-High alert, Russia’s economic difficulties, and U.S. strength all
prove the plan is necessary
Mosher, Rand senior policy analyst, and Schwartz, Rand associate policy analyst, 3 [David E.’s expertise is in nuclear
weapons policy and ballistic missile defense, and Lowell, “Why Russian and U.S. Nuclear Postures Perpetuate Cold
War Risks”, Rand Review, Fall, http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/fall2003/force.html, AVLB]
A Lingering Threat
The past decade has brought …. its incentive to launch its forces preemptively.

3. The failure of early warning systems is the most likely scenario for accidental launch-its catastrophic consequences
should not be ignored which means we control probability
Podvig, researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation @Stanford, 6 [Pavel, “Reducing the risk of
an accidental launch”, http://russianforces.org/podvig/2006/10/reducing_the_risk_of_an_accide.shtml#_ftnref37, 10/1,
AVLB]Reducing the risk of an accidental launch
Posted on October 1, 2006 | Printer-friendly version
Possibility of an accidental launch
There are several scenarios that … probability should not be ignored or tolerated.
4. U.S. will retaliate immediately after Russian attack-prefer our evidence because its specific to military attitudes, not
just plans on paper
Blair, president of CDI and Ph.D, 4 [Bruce, CDI is the Center for Defense Information. He was a seniro fellow
@Brookings from 87-2000 and earned his Ph.D in Operations Research at Yale and is considered one of the foremost
experts on U.S. and Russian security policies, specializing in nuclear forces and command-control systems, “Keeping
Presidents in the Nuclear Dark”, http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm, AVLB]
To his great credit, one senior general spoke candidly of the matter soon after retiring from his exhalted position as
commander in chief of the Strategic Command in 1994. Former Air Force Gen. George Lee Butler gave an interview in
which the truth was finally laid bare for all to read. Here are some excerpts:
“Part of the insidiousness of the evolution of …. Let the holders of the nuclear footballs beware.

5. US-Russian nuclear war ensures planetary extinction
Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2
(Helen, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)
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http://www.cross-x.com/vb/showpost.php?p=1446718&postcount=11
If launched from Russia, nuclear … after the September 11 attack.

C. Plan solves
1. The U.S. should pull its ballistic missile submarines away from Russia to provide the best chance of shrinking the
risk of accidental launch to zero-This is the only extinction risk to the United States.
Russian strategic nuclear forces remain … with presidential leadership and commitment.

2. Miscalc will occur because of the dismal state of Russian early warning systems in the status quo-removing U.S.
trident subs from Russian waters solves
Hughes, editor @Aviation Week, 3 [David, “Russia ICBM’s Could Launch Accidentally: Defense Rand Study Finds
ICBM Standoff Unabated Between U.S. and Russia”, 6/30,
http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/03_Global/030710.Russia.ICBMs.could.html, AVLB]
Russia's early warning system, … backing off from the current operational posture.

3. Monitoring ensures Russian confidence and decreases the risk of nuclear use
Mosher, senior policy analyst @ Rand, et al., 03 [David E., Lowell H. Schwartz, international policy analyst @ Rand,
Chief Human Capital Officer @USCIS, Lynn E. Davis, director of Rand’s Washington office, Beyond the Nuclear
Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S.—Russian Relations, pgs. 67-82, AVLB]
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/index.html
Approach 2: Pull Tridents away from … confidence in the survivability of its forces.

4. The plan causes Russia to take its force off high-alert
Evaluation Contribution to Reducing the … could launch a debilitating first strike.
5. Plan increases warning time to twenty five minutes by pushing subs back 6,000 nautical miles.
Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S.—Russian Relations,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/MR1666.pref.pdf, pg. xi, AVLB]
Under this approach, the United States … or verification requirements, it has no effect on costs.
Loose Nuclear Weapons Advantage

Advantage III is Loose Nuclear Weapons
A. U.S. subs lurking off the coast of Russia cause the constant transportation of Russian nukes-greatly increasing the
risk that terrorists will steal an intact weapon
experts on U.S. and Russian security policies, specializing in nuclear forces and command-control systems, “The
Wrong Deterrence: The Threat of Loose Nukes is One of Our Own Making”, http://www.cdi.org/blair/loose-nukes.cfm,
AVLB]
On any given day, many … guards from stealing and selling them).
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B. Terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons is dangerous
1.Seizure of an intact weapon is uniquely dangerous and takes out your defense-it leads to extinction.
AVLB]
And terrorists grabbing such a … be apocalyptic for entire nations.

2. Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Sid-Ahmed,4
(Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, "Extinction!" 8/26, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
What would be the consequences … the whole planet, we will all be losers.
C. Solvency- The plan reduces the risk that loose nukes get in terrorists hands—also more solvency for our other
advantages
Reuters, 3 [“Experts fear U.S.-Russia Nuclear Miscalculation”, 3/22, http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0522-
03.htm, AVLB]
More than a decade after the …outside U.S. and Russian missile silos.
Framework
Shively, 2000 – Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M

(Ruth Lessl, Political Theory and Partisan Politics, p. 181-2)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2576184/at-join-my-social-movement
The requirements given thus … basic agreement or harmony.
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UNLV Eisenstadt/Lucas-Bolin (Subs) [Travis]
UNLV at Gonzaga tournament
Plan: The United States federal government should prohibit forward deployed ballistic missile-carrying submarine
patrols within 6,000 nautical miles of Russia

Advantage I is Sub-Bumping
1. Deployment of submarines off the Russian coast is a remaining Cold War nuclear mission and role that carries
devastating risks
Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists et al., 9 [Hans M., who
is also the co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear
Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook, Robert S. Norris, senior research associate with the Natural Resources
Defense Council nuclear program and director of the Nuclear Weapons Databook project, and Ivan Oelrich, vice
president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists and author of Missions for Nuclear
Weapons after the Cold War, “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward
Eliminating Nuclear Weapons”, pg. 20, AVLB]
http://www.fas.org/pubs/_pages/occ_pap7.html
Similarly, we rarely find …flight speed of the delivery vehicles.

2. U.S. subs patrolling around Russian coast will lead to sub bumping and hostility between the two countries
Technology and who is a Senior Research Scientist @MIPT, “Collision of Two U.S. Nuclear Powered Submarines on
March 19, 1998”, http://www.armscontrol.ru/subs/collisions/comm0319.htm#smi, AVLB]
* U.S. attack submarines are technically ….building confidence between the U.S. and Russia.
3. Sub bumping results in the release of radioactive nuclear materials and the breakup of missiles-Empirical evidence
proves
The danger of a collision is … the U.S. submarine as well.
4. Submarine impact is the biggest chance for nuclear disaster through the ‘popcorning’ effect-subs close to the coast
are the biggest risk
Edwards, environment journalist of the year in the British Environment and Media Awards, 8 [Rob, freelance journalist
who specializes in environmental issues, “Could Nuclear Warheads Go Off ‘like popcorn’”, June 26th,
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826625.000-could-nuclear-warheads-go-off-like-popcorn.html, AVLB]
YOU might think nuclear …."It's a very, very scary thought."
5. Removing from Russian territorial waters solves-most likely scenario for a collision
Q: It appears that you … deeper trust in each other to make this possible.
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6. A Single Accidental Launch Would Kill Billions In An Escalating Conflict

PR Newswire, 4-29-98
An 'accidental' nuclear attack would … be all but impossible, according to Forrow and his colleagues.
* "An ‘accidental’ nuclear attack would... according to Forrow and his colleagues."

Advantage II is Launch on Warning
1. The presence of U.S. subs causes a Russian “launch-on-warning” strategy-leads to a Russian first strike when
benign events are confused for U.S. strikes. The timeframe is immediate.
Nuclear Threat Reduction Campaign, a program of Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation and The Justice Project,
8 [“U.S.-Russian Ballistic-Missile Early-Warning Cooperation”, 1/22, http://www.veteransforamerica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2008/01/22-early-warning-final.pdf, AVLB]
I. The Issue Background The United States’ … catastrophic nuclear launch by Russia on the United States was
averted.
2.Russian accidental launch is a huge risk to the U.S.-High alert, Russia’s economic difficulties, and U.S. strength all
prove the plan is necessary
A Lingering Threat
The past decade has brought …. its incentive to launch its forces preemptively.

3. The failure of early warning systems is the most likely scenario for accidental launch-its catastrophic consequences
should not be ignored which means we control probability
Podvig, researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation @Stanford, 6 [Pavel, “Reducing the risk of
an accidental launch”, http://russianforces.org/podvig/2006/10/reducing_the_risk_of_an_accide.shtml#_ftnref37, 10/1,
AVLB]Reducing the risk of an accidental launch
Posted on October 1, 2006 | Printer-friendly version
Possibility of an accidental launch
There are several scenarios that … probability should not be ignored or tolerated.
4. U.S. will retaliate immediately after Russian attack-prefer our evidence because its specific to military attitudes, not
just plans on paper
experts on U.S. and Russian security policies, specializing in nuclear forces and command-control systems, “Keeping
Presidents in the Nuclear Dark”, http://www.cdi.org/blair/launch-on-warning.cfm, AVLB]
To his great credit, one senior general spoke candidly of the matter soon after retiring from his exhalted position as
commander in chief of the Strategic Command in 1994. Former Air Force Gen. George Lee Butler gave an interview in
which the truth was finally laid bare for all to read. Here are some excerpts:
“Part of the insidiousness of the evolution of …. Let the holders of the nuclear footballs beware.

5. US-Russian nuclear war ensures planetary extinction
Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2
(Helen, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)
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If launched from Russia, nuclear … after the September 11 attack.

C. Plan solves
1. The U.S. should pull its ballistic missile submarines away from Russia to provide the best chance of shrinking the
risk of accidental launch to zero-This is the only extinction risk to the United States.
Russian strategic nuclear forces remain … with presidential leadership and commitment.

2. Miscalc will occur because of the dismal state of Russian early warning systems in the status quo-removing U.S.
trident subs from Russian waters solves
Hughes, editor @Aviation Week, 3 [David, “Russia ICBM’s Could Launch Accidentally: Defense Rand Study Finds
ICBM Standoff Unabated Between U.S. and Russia”, 6/30,
http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/03_Global/030710.Russia.ICBMs.could.html, AVLB]
Russia's early warning system, … backing off from the current operational posture.

3. Monitoring ensures Russian confidence and decreases the risk of nuclear use
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/index.html
Approach 2: Pull Tridents away from … confidence in the survivability of its forces.

4. The plan causes Russia to take its force off high-alert
Evaluation Contribution to Reducing the … could launch a debilitating first strike.
5. Plan increases warning time to twenty five minutes by pushing subs back 6,000 nautical miles.
Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S.—Russian Relations,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1666/MR1666.pref.pdf, pg. xi, AVLB]
Under this approach, the United States … or verification requirements, it has no effect on costs.

Advantage III is Loose Nuclear Weapons
A. U.S. subs lurking off the coast of Russia cause the constant transportation of Russian nukes-greatly increasing the
risk that terrorists will steal an intact weapon
AVLB]
On any given day, many … guards from stealing and selling them).
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B. Terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons is dangerous
1.Seizure of an intact weapon is uniquely dangerous and takes out your defense-it leads to extinction.
AVLB]
And terrorists grabbing such a … be apocalyptic for entire nations.

2. Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Sid-Ahmed,4
(Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, "Extinction!" 8/26, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
What would be the consequences … the whole planet, we will all be losers.
C. Solvency- The plan reduces the risk that loose nukes get in terrorists hands—also more solvency for our other
advantages
Reuters, 3 [“Experts fear U.S.-Russia Nuclear Miscalculation”, 3/22, http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0522-
03.htm, AVLB]
More than a decade after the …outside U.S. and Russian missile silos.
Framework
Shively, 2000 – Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M

(Ruth Lessl, Political Theory and Partisan Politics, p. 181-2)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2576184/at-join-my-social-movement
The requirements given thus … basic agreement or harmony.
Idaho State Semis-Nevada Test Site Aff

No plan text- Aff affirms using our social location to bear witness to the attrocities committed at the Nevada Test Site
We read two narratives-Ruby Davis and General Anderson's stories from American Ground Zero: The Secret Nuclear
War (93)-Book is edited by Carol Gallagher
Other cards:
Read from the Nevada Desert Experience's mission statement-Nevadadesertexperience.org
The harms that General Anderson describes were no accident. The Nevada Test site was chosen specifically because
it is located in an isolated area where one of the poorest populations resides. The federal government was aware that
it could not get away with undertaking such a program with a larger and wealthier population. This has led to massive
radiation exposure and cancer rates among the Shoshone and others exposed to radiation.
Clark, sociology doctoral student at the University of Oregon, 2 [Brett, “The indigenous environmental movement in the
United States”, Organization and Environment, Vol. 15, pg. 4, pg. ProQuest. AVLB]
"The Western Shoshone...radioactive ecocide"

We approach the resolution through using our social location to relate to the indigenous environmental movement’s
struggles against the harms perpetuated by the Nevada Test Site. This method is the best way to confront racism and
take an intersectional approach to confront oppression. The affirmative takes a local standpoint that allows for dialogue
with larger movements, which provides a nexus for analyzing diverse struggles and historical conditions.
Clark, sociology doctoral student at the University of Oregon, 2 [Brett, “The indigenous environmental movement in the
United States”, Organization and Environment, Vol. 15, pg. 4, pg. ProQuest. AVLB]
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Social movement theory ...environmental struggles"
Vote affirmative to bear witness to 60 years of local nuclear atrocity. Our testimony is recognition of the space between
the living and speaking beings which opens space for us to reconstruct subjectivity
Agamben 99, philosopher and professor of aesthetics at University of Verona Italy, Remnants of Auschwitz: The
Witness and the Archive, 1999, 142-3,145-6
Does this mean ...intimacy is testimony"
Finally, we should take a cue from indigenous notions of localism and step away from the global project of objective
truth and justification in the context of our advocacy-Our stance is the best methodology.
Gustavo Esteva and Madhu Suri Prakash 1998 Grassroots Postmodernism: Remaking the Soil of Cultures 28
There is a legitimate ....communal spaces
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**MISCELLANEOUS**
Binghamton Jaret/Timmons (DUBs) [Logan]
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Emory Caporal/Senghas (START) [TJ]
GSU Aff Disclosure
The United States Federal Government should consent to be bound by the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty follow-on
agreement.
CONTENTION _: Proliferation
The START follow-on won’t pass until after START I expires—this shatters progress on disarm—kills NPT credibility
Kimball 6/19/09, Executive Director, Arms Control Association (Daryl G., Background Briefing for Reporters: The
START Follow-On Agreement and Beyond, Arms Control Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3711)
Maintaining the status quo by simply... necessary to strengthen the NPT.
If START isn’t ratified before December 5 Obama will implement the reductions without congressional consent—this
precludes an effective global model for arms reductions—also empowers nationalists in Russia who block ratification
Rogin 7/11/09, Congressional Quarterly Staff (Josh, Nuclear Arms Pact Faces Slow Go, CQ Politics,
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003163957)
Despite progress by U.S. and Russian ... focuses on trans-Atlantic relations.
Without a new START, the 2010 NPT review conference will be a fiasco—prompts threshold country nuclearization
Esin 7/21/09, science fellow at the Institute of the US and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, fmr. chief of
staff of the Russian Federation Strategic Missile Force (Viktor, Possible Attributes of a New Russian-American Treaty
on Strategic Offensive Weapons: The View from Russia, U.S. Global Engagement program, Carnegie Council,
http://www.cceia.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0024.html) SOA = strategic offensive arms
On March 2, 2009, Russian Deputy ... necessary for achieving success.
Perception of the US abandoning treaty obligations on arsenal cuts causes potential proliferators to abandon the NPT
Sagan ‘4 - Professor of Political Science @ Stanford University [Scott D. Sagan (Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation.), “Dissuasion and the NPT Regime: Complementary or Contradictory
Strategies?,” Strategic Insights, Volume III, Issue 10 (October 2004), pg.
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2004/oct/saganOct04.asp]
While a number of current and former ... outcome of such debates. [10] 1ac
1AC—NPT
Failed RevCon risks a chain reaction of defections
Carranza ‘6 - Professor of Political Science @ Texas A & M University, Kingsville [MARIO E. CARRANZA, “Can the
NPT Survive? The Theory and Practice of US Nuclear Non-proliferation Policy after September 11,” Contemporary
Security Policy, Vol.27, No.3 (December 2006), pp.489–525]
A World Without the NPT? - If ...nuclear activities in Iran. Pg. 509-510
Each withdrawal risks preventive strikes on nuclear facilities

McCgwire ‘5 - Professor of International Politics @ University of Wales [MICHAEL MCCGWIRE, “The rise and fall of
the NPT: an opportunity for Britain,” International Affairs 81, 1 (2005) 115-140]
In sum, the primary ‘threat’ to the... favoured will join the club? Pg. 124
These states will be left uninhabitable.
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Nissani ‘92 – Professor of Biological Sciences @ Wayne State University. [Moti Nissani, “Chapter 2:
CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR WAR.” Lives in the Balance: the Cold War and American Politics, 1945-1991, 1992,
pg. http://www.is.wayne.edu/mnissani/pagepub/CH2.html.]
On each of the projections above we need to ... before buying land in these regions.
Over 40 countries could quickly breakout. Strong NPT prevents

Rublee ‘8 - Professor of Government and World Affairs @ University of Tampa [Maria Rost Rublee, “Taking Stock of
the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: Using Social Psychology to Understand Regime Effectiveness,” International
Studies Review, 22 Aug 2008, Volume 10, Issue 3, Pages 420-450WileyInterScience]
However, I would argue that before ...it that the papers turns to next.
NPT prevents runaway global proliferation

Dunn ‘9 – Senior vice president of Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) [Lewis A. Dunn (Former assistant
the Reagan administration), “THE NPT: Assessing the Past, Building the Future,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No.
2, July 2009]
Metric: Does NPT adherence ...compliance with NPT obligations. Pg. 149-151
Nuclear latency poses a unique risk. Rapid prolif risks nuclear war.
Horowitz ‘9 – Professor of Political Science @ University of Pennsylvania [Michael Horowitz (Former Emory debater
and NDT Champion), “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?,” Journal
of Conflict Resolution, Volume 53 Number 2, April 2009 pg. 234-257]
Learning as states gain ... the preferences of the adopter. Pg. 237-239 1ac
Miscalculation is likely. Cold War deterrence model is not applicable

Cimbala ‘8 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala,
“Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008,
pages 113 – 132Informaworld]
The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia ... of war outside of Europe.19
Prolif transforms ongoing disputes into shooting wars.

Sobek et al ‘9 – Professor of Political Science @ Louisiana State University [David Sobek, Dennis M. Foster (Professor
of International Studies and Political Science @ Virginia Military Institute) & Samuel B. Robison (Ph.D. Candidate in
Political Science @ Louisiana State University) “Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed
Conflict, 1945-2001,” Prepared for presentation at the 2009 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago.
2009-05-22, pg. http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p362138_index.html]
At the active pursuit stage, one can ...exploring and non-proliferating states.
They will escalate to great power nuclear wars

Below ‘8 – Wing Commander for the Royal Air Force [TIM D. Q. BELOW (Master of Arts degree in Defence Studies
from Kings College London), “OPTIONS FOR US NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: EXEMPLARY LEADERSHIP OR
EXTRAORDINARY LUNACY?,” A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIR
AND SPACE STUDIES FOR COMPLETION OF GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS, AIR UNIVERSITY MAXWELL AIR
FORCE BASE, ALABAMA, JUNE 2008]
Proliferation. Roger Molander, of RAND Corporation, ... by its allies or their opponents.54
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The end result is nuclear winter that destroys the vast majority of the world’s population
Toon et al ‘7 – Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences @ University of Colorado [Owen B. Toon, Alan
Robock (Professor of Environmental Sciences @ Rutgers University), Richard P. Turco (Professor of Atmospheric and
Oceanic Sciences @ UCLA, Charles Bardeen (Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences @ University of
Colorado), Luke Oman (Professor of of Earth and Planetary Sciences @ Johns Hopkins University), Georgiy L.
Stenchikov (Professor of Environmental Sciences @ Rutgers University), “NUCLEAR WAR: Consequences of
Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts,” Science, 2 March 2007, Vol. 315. no. 5816, pp. 1224 – 1225]
The world may no longer face a ...since the dawn of humans.
The risk of extinction from nuclear war trumps every impact—reducing numbers of weapons is key to decrease the risk
Sandberg, Matheny, and Ćirković ‘8, James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford
University and PhD in computational neuroscience from Stockholm University; PhD candidate in Health Policy and
Management at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at UPitt
Medical Center; senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of
physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro (Anders, Jason G, and Milan M., How can we reduce
the risk of human extinction? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9/9, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-
can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction)
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at ...risk of catastrophic accidents.
Quick START completion sets the tone for the 2010 NPT Review Conference—it displays binding commitment to
mutual cuts
Orlov 4/06/09, Center For Policy Studies in Russia (Peter, Rebecca and Vladimir, International Expectations of the
Obama Administration, Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/nppcon2009/)
ORLOV: I think, Naila, first of all, as we started ...in further counts.
START is the most important issue for the US and Russia meeting Article VI commitments—verification is key
Pomper 5/25/09, Senior Research Associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (Miles, Report from the NPT
Preparatory Committee 2009, http://cns.miis.edu/stories/090526_npt_report.htm)
President Obama's election and policy... not meet these criteria.
A new commitment to arms control is vital to the global nonproliferation regime

Collins, 09 - Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and US
Ambassador (James, “A Chance for a Nuclear-Free World,” Foreign Policy, 7/6,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23356)
A renewed bilateral commitment to ... threats to both countries.
CONTENTION __: Strategic cooperation
The US is trying to boost strategic coop with Russia – it made concessions on NATO and Polish NMD that has created
a window of opportunity
Goldgeier, 09 - professor of political science at George Washington University and a senior fellow at the Council on
Foreign Relations (James, “A Realistic Reset with Russia,” Policy Review, August-September,
http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/51403357.html)
When the Obama administration entered ... immediate heartburn in Moscow.
Despite this and the Obama summit, US-Russian relations are fragile and are easily derailed
Collins, 09- Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and US
Ambassador (James, The Moscow Times, “Not the Best Way to Reset Relations,” 8/3,
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http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/380047.htm)
If there were any doubts as to how ...in the absence of sustained dialogue.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
START failure will dangerously irritate strained US-Russia relations and remove a major source of nuclear
transparency
Kristensen, Brooks, et al., ‘9, Director of the Nuclear Information Project, FAS, and Ambassador, former Administrator
for the National Nuclear Security Administration. Also featuring: Daryl Kimball, Executive Director for Arms Control
Association, and Greg Thielmann, Senior Fellow at the ACA (Hans and Linton, NEXT STEPS IN U.S.-RUSSIAN
NUCLEAR ARMS REDUCTIONS: THE START FOLLOW-ON NEGOTIATIONS AND BEYOND, Arms Control
Association, 4/27, http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3632)
And just as importantly, ... U.S.-Russian relations.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
This makes relations crises inevitable and eliminates the possibility of strategic cooperation even if relations improve in
the short term
Arbatov and Dvorkin, 06 - * Scholar-in-Residence and Program Co-chair of Nuclear Nonproliferation at the Carnegie
International Relationships of the Russian Academy of Sciences AND ** senior researcher at the Center for
International Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of
Sciences (Alexei and Vladimir, Beyond Nuclear Deterrence http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/arbatov_intro.pdf)
Even when dramatic changes ...integration with the West.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
Collapsing US-Russian cooperation will increase global missile sales and the risk of conflict—it will destroy U.S.
leadership
Simes, 07 - President of the Nixon Center and Publisher of The National Interest. (Dimitri, Foreign Affairs, “Losing
Russia; The Costs of Renewed Confrontation,” Nov/Dec, proquest)
A BLUEPRINT FOR COOPERATION

Working constructively ... potentially catastrophic results.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
US leadership prevents multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict – prefer it to all other alternatives
Kagan ‘7, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert “End of Dreams, Return of
History” Policy Review http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10]
Finally, there is the United States itself. As a ... global involvement will provide an easier path.
Hegemony prevents global nuclear exchange

Khalilzad 95 Defense Analyst at RAND, (Zalmay, “Losing the Moment? The United States and the World After the Cold
War” The Washington Quarterly, RETHINKING GRAND STRATEGY; Vol. 18, No. 2; Pg. 84)
Under the third option, the United States ... balance of power system.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
Taylor - Atlantic correspondent living in Moscow – ‘8 Jeffrey, Medvedev Spoils the Party, November,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811u/medvedev-obama
Like it or not, the United States cannot ... face a volatile future arm in arm.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
Reducing tension in the nuclear relationship is vital to cooperation—key to stopping the spread of cruise missiles
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NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION”, March, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB892.pdf
Therefore the urgency of bilateral ... reasons for reviving this dialogue.
1AC—RUSSIA ADV
A new START agreement is the linchpin of US-Russian relations
Collins, 09 - Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and US
Ambassador (James, “A Chance for a Nuclear-Free World,” Foreign Policy, 7/6,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23356)
Two decades later, as U.S. President ... goals that much more difficult.
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Georgetown Hector/Rice (NWFZ) [Arif]
Pelindaba Aff- Harvard
THE UNITED STATES’ CBW EXCEPTIONS TO ITS NON-USE COMMITMENTS TO THE AFRICAN NUCLEAR
WEAPONS FREE ZONE DESTROY ITS COMPLIANCE AND GUT ITS NON-PROLIFERATION CREDIBILITY
Bunn, 96
George Bunn, “Expanding nuclear options: Is the U.S. negating its non-use pledges?,” Arms Control Today, May/Jun
1996, Proquest
On April 11, 1996, … be de-emphasizing them.
THE UNITED STATES’ REFUSAL TO BE BOUND TO THE TREATY OF PELINDABA LEAVES THE AFRICAN
NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE IN LIMBO AND ON THE EDGE OF COLLAPSE
Sand, 9
Peter Sand, lecturer in international environmental law at the University of Munich and a former legal adviser for the
U.N. Environment Programme and the World Bank, October 8, 2009, “Diego Garcia: A thorn in the side of Africa's
nuclear-weapon-free zone,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/diego-garcia-
thorn-the-side-of-africas-nuclear-weapon-free-zone
On July 15, the Pelindaba … weapons after all.
THUS THE PLAN: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD CONSENT TO BE BOUND BY
PROTOCOLS 1 THROUGH 3 OF THE TREATY OF PELINDABA
Proliferation
PELINDABA SUCCESS SPILLS OVER TO BROADER NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE EFFECTIVENESS
Ogunbanwo, 3
Sola Ogunbanwo, Chief Expert Advisor on the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, was a delegate of Nigeria to the
2000 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Spring 2003, Nonproliferation
Review, “Accelerate the Ratification of the Pelindaba Treaty,” < http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/101ogunb.pdf>
When the Pelindaba Treaty …the African Nuclear- Weapon-Free Zone).
NWFZ EFFECTIVENESS IS ON THE BRINK, A REVITALIZATION OF THEIR UTILITY IS CRUCIAL TO SOLVE FOR
GLOBAL PROLIFERATION
Parrish and du Preez, 6
Scott Parrish, and Jean du Preez, Academics at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Nuclear-
Weapon-Free Zones: Still a Useful Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Tool?,” Weapons of Mass Destruction
Commission, Paper No. 6, June 1, 2006
Just as the optimism ...the nonproliferation regime.
MASS PROLIFERATION LEADS TO NUCLEAR WAR

Utgoff, survival v. 44 no 2 summer 2002, p. 90
African Relations
U.S. – AFRICAN RELATIONS ARE WEAK DUE TO U.S. MILITARY POLICY’S FAILURE TO ENGAGE IN AFRICAN
MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS
Putman, 8
Dr. Diane Putman, USAID and M.A. in Strategic Studies from the U.S. Army War College, Mar 15, 2008, “
COMBATING AFRICAN QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF AFRICOM,” < http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-
bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA479332&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf>
The creation of a new … security in the region.
U.S. RATIFICATION OF PELINDABA BOOSTS U.S. – AFRICAN RELATIONS
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Lewis, 9
Jeffery Lewis, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation. Dr.
Lewis is the author of Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age (MIT Press, 2007).
Dr. Lewis is a research scholar at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland
School of Public Policy, August 17, 2009, “African Nuclear Weapons Free Zone,” ArmsControlWonk, <
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2429/african-nuclear-weapons-free-zone>
As I noted above…of his choosing.
U.S. – AFRICAN RELATIONS KEY TO BOLSTERING U.S. LEADERSHIP IN THE UN

Pham 07
J. Peter, Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University as well as
Associate Professor of Justice Studies, Political Science and Africana Studies. “America in Africa: Securing U.S.
Interests and Promoting a Continents Development” <http://www.jmu.edu/nelsoninstitute/America_in_Africa.pdf>
U.S. foreign … Human Rights Council).
U.S. U.N. LEADERSHIP BREAKS DEADLOCKS AND IS KEY TO EFFECTIVE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS
PROMOTION
Drier and Hamilton et. Al, 2
David Drier, California republican representative, member of the CFR and Lee Hamilton, Director of the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars California republican, “Enhancing U.S. Leadership at the United Nations,”
Council on Foreign Relations and Freedom House, CIAONET,
Enhanced American leadership …are additional problems.
DEMOCRACY PROMOTION SOLVES FOR EXTINCTION

Diamond, 95
Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990’s,” October 1995.
http://www.carnegie.org/sub/pubs/deadly/dia95_01.html,
This hardly exhausts … can be built.
Nuclear Terrorism
PELINDABA IS CRUCIAL TO AVERTING NUCLEAR TERRORISM

Ogunbanwo, 3
Sola Ogunbanwo, Chief Expert Advisor on the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, was a delegate of Nigeria to the
2000 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Spring 2003, Nonproliferation
Review, “Accelerate the Ratification of the Pelindaba Treaty,” < http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/101ogunb.pdf>
After 9/11, …uranium in Africa.
NUCLEAR TERRORISM TRIGGERS GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR

Speice, 6
Patrick Speice, JD Candidate, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February 2006, Lexis
Solvency
LEGALLY BINDING NEGATIVE SECURITY ASSURANCES PREVENT THE COLLAPSE OF PELINDABA

Du Preez, 8
Jean du Preez, Director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program for the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, March 31, 2008, “The Race Towards Entry Into Force of the Pelindaba Treaty: Mozambique
Leading the Charge,” Center for Non-proliferation Studies < http://cns.miis.edu/stories/080331_pelindaba.htm>
Given Libya's 2006 … to be left in limbo.
U.S. ADHERENCE TO NWFZ NON-USE PROTOCOLS SOLVES FOR PROLIFERATION
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Spector and Ohlde, 5

Leonard S. Spector is deputy director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies and leads the center’s Washington, DC, office. Aubrie Ohlde is a research associate at the
center, April 2005, Arms Control Today, “Negative Security Assurances: Revisiting the Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone
Option,” < http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_04/Spector_Ohlde>
Negative security assurances …reinforcing these trends.[10]
ONLY UNCONDITIONAL AND LEGALLY BINDING NON-USE ASSURANCES SOLVE – STATES DOUBT THE
CREDIBILITY OF ANYTHING LESS
Du Preeze et al, 3 [Jean, CNS IONP Director , March 15, 2003, “Challenges Facing the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Regime ,” http://cns.miis.edu/treaty_npt/annedy.htm]
It was noted that …by the NWS.
GSU Aff Disclosure

1ac
Plan: The United States federal government should remove nuclear strike plans from its Global Strike planning.
the global strike plan includes a nuclear option. these warplans enable a nuclear first strike as a counterproliferation
strategy
KRISTENSEN 8/8/6
The roots of … 8022 continues.
the formal warplan for nuclear global strike was covertly cancelled, leaving it in secret limbo
Kristensen 8
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/07/globalstrike.php
The U.S. military … didn’t go anywhere.”
Taking the nuclear strike plans out of globaL strike solves. our global strike plans are a total mess. this chaos raises
the nuclear risk and makes global strike deterrence impossible
KRISTENSEN 8
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/07/globalstrike.php
Global Strike Confusion… Posture Review will.
contention one: global strike causes us intentional nuclear use
we will intentionally use nuclear weapons as a result of global strike
ARKIN 5/15/5
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=1704 – REPRINT FROM WASHINGTON POST
This blurring of … unanticipated consequences.
global strike causes us nuclear escalation when small wars fail
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Schell 5
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/2837/jonathan_schell_on_crossing_nuclear_thresholds
History suggests a… nuclear option?
Contention 2: accidental
GLOBAL STRIKE’S NUCLeAR OPTION HAS PUT THE BOMBER FORCE ON PERMANENT HIGH ALERT
ARKIN 5/15/5
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=1704 – REPRINT FROM WASHINGTON POST
Early last summer,… of nuclear weapons.
bomber high alert from global strike risks both peacetime and crisis accidental nuclear use
Van Auken 9-9-7
(Bill, politician and activist for the Socialist Equality Party and was a presidential candidate in the U.S. election of 2004,
a full time reporter for the World Socialist Web Site, “Why was a nuclear-armed bomber allowed to fly over the US?”)
Wednesday’s revelation that… immediate threat.
consolidated stratcom power under global strike causes accidental war risk. the timeframe is hourly
Rinne 8/6/9
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/45020
What about computer… exercising vigilante justice.
the global strike nuclear option is the greatest risk of extinction
Lendman 7/27/9
http://mathaba.net/news/?x=621199
With missile "defenses"… the nuclear trigger.
contention two: global strike’s nuclear option makes nuclear use more likely globally
global strike force blurring makes others pre-empt because of use-them-or-lose-them fears
KRISTENSEN 7
“U.S. STRATEGIC WAR PLANNING AFTER 9/11”
Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, July 2007
Pros and Cons… affect potential adversaries?
global strike destroys crisis stability and raises nuclear escalation risk by driving the conventional arming of ballistic
missiles
kristensen 6
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http://www.nukestrat.com/pubs/GlobalStrikeReport.pdf
The addition of… China as well.
NUCLEAR OPTION IN GLOBAL STRIKE DRIVES DESTABILIZING FORCE POSTURE AND MODERNIZATION IN
THE PACIFIC, causing north korean lashout
MCDONOUGH 6
The US Nuclear Shift to the Pacific: Implications for 'Strategic Stability'
David McDonough. RUSI Journal. London: Apr 2006. Vol. 151, Iss. 2; pg. 64, 5 pgs
But while weapon… appear especially threatening.
extinction
Lee 99Wha Rang, Korea Web Weekly, September 13, 1999, http://www.kimsoft.com/1997/lee0913.htm, accessed
3/17/03
Meanwhile, Kim Dae… for human habitation.
contention three: global strike causes global nuclear armament
global strike is nuclear operation of preventive war doctrine, spurring the new acquistion of nuclear weapons
Schell 5
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/2837/jonathan_schell_on_crossing_nuclear_thresholds
The order to… nuclear proliferation.
global strike causes proliferation through modeling
DOYLE 6
The Nonproliferation Review, Volume 13, Issue 1 March 2006 , pages 89 – 111
Finally, major aspects…nuclear weapons.36
global strike pushes HORIZONTAL and russian VERTICAL prolif
KRISTENSEN 7
Two ’’rogue’’ states…proliferation and 9/11.
horizontal prolif causes extinction
Utgoff, survival v. 44 no 2 summer 2002, p. 90
Widespread proliferation … even whole nations.
contention four: global strike causes russia modernization
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BLURRING FROM NUCLEAR GLOBAL STRIKE DRIVES RUSSIAN STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION
KRISTENSEN 7
Pros and Cons… their own modernizations.
russia will modernize topol-m and bulava
Ria Novosti 06/10/09. “Topol-M, Bulava missles to be core of Russian nuclear triad” Russian News Agency.
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20090610/155218930.html
Topol-M and… global economic crisis.
russian topols will have ramjet hypersonic delivery systems
Pravda 12/18/6
http://english.pravda.ru/russia/kremlin/85971-1/
The missile’s warhead… an rocket engine.
Hypersonic missiles = nuclear miscalc between US and Russian by reducing flight times
Science and Global Security 10/19/6 http://sciencesecurity.livejournal.com/9634.html
Consider. The Russian’s… nuclear war”
this will cause a new cold war and global extinction
Engdahl 2007 “Russia And The New Cold War When cowboys don't shoot straight“ Asia Times F William Engdahl.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IC01Ag05.html
Conplan 8022 included… mutual deterrence?
GSU Round 2
versus Case Western MW
Indo-Pak add-on
Unconditionally Eliminating Pre-emptive Global Nuclear Strikes Prevents Indo-Pak Nuclear conflict – India Models
Berry, 9
Ken Berry, ICNND Research Coordinator and former assistant secretary for Arms Control and disarmament in the
Australian department of foreign affairs and trade, June 2009, “Draft Treaty on Non-First Use of Nuclear Weapons,”
http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Berry_No_First_Use_Treaty.pdf
While some nuclear-armed… in certain circumstances.
Extinction
University of Colorado Boulder, 8
April 7, 2008, “Regional nuclear conflict would create near-global ozone hole, says C.U.-Boulder
study,”<http://www.colorado.edu/news/r/1fac2c9873881f656efa3029f6ffb551.html>
A limited nuclear… a nuclear exchange."
CBMS good add-on

Without nuclear strike options we would use cbms which effectivly destroy targets
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Sugden 9 Bruce M. consultant for the Department of Defense and commercial clients on combating weapons of mass
destruction, future global strike force structure alternatives, nuclear policy and strategy & MA in international relations
and public policy studies at the University of Chicago & former U.S. Air Force missile launch officer, “Speed Kills:
Analyzing the Deployment of Conventional Ballistic Missiles”, International Security, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Summer 2009)
Proponents of the… PGS weapons system.
That’s key to time-sensitive high-value targets—deters terrorists and rogue nuclear attacks
Owens 8. Jonathan M., Colonel USAF & Masters in Aeronautical Science from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
“Precision Global Strike: Is There A Role For The Navy Conventional Trident Modification Or The Air Force
Conventional Strike Missile?”, Air War College, Air University, 15 February 2008
A wide range of… contemplating another attack.
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Harvard Karlson/Rogan (Dismantlement) [Amy]
Harvard KR
GSU Aff Disclosure

CONTENTION ONE: Dismantlement
FIRST NOTE-National Nuclear Safety Administration nuclear dismantlement is drastically underfunded
Dr. Robert Civak, Budget Examiner with the Office of Management and Budget, April 2005 (America's One-Nation
Arms Race, http://www.trivalleycares.org/TVC-Civiak_2006Rpt.pdf)
In the summer of 2004, the … and Stockpile System Programs.
This has resulted in a large backlog of nuclear weapons slated for dismantlement-at current rates retired weapons
must be maintained in storage for 20 years
Lewis and Lugo 2009 [Jeffrey Lewis, Director Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at New America
Foundation and Meri Lugo, Intern. Foreign Policy “Where Weapons go to Die” 4/13/09]
Speaking in Prague … be with us for quite a while.
As a result, “cut” warheads awaiting dismantlement remain at their bases
Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, 18 December
2007 (White House Announces (Secret) Nuclear Weapons Cuts, FAS Strategic Security Blog,
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/12/white_house_announces_secret_n.php)
The White House’s announcement to …Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico.
THERE ARE TWO IMPACT SCENARIOS—

First-Accidents
Excess nuclear weapons awaiting dismantlement remain at DOD bases long after transfer to the DOE
Bruce Blair and Hans Kristensen et al., February 2008 (FAS NRDC and UCS, Toward True Security,
http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_08021201A.pdf)
In December 2007, the United States…where it dismantles warheads.
This storage at Air Force bases results in significant accounting errors and bent spear nuclear accidents
Walter Pincus, Washington Post Staff Writer, 28 September 2007 (Errors Behind Warheads' Flight, Washington Post,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/27/AR2007092702216.html)
An Air Force decision to … they were turned over to the NNSA.
Status quo reforms of Air Force procedure are insufficient and accidents remain inevitable-the pervasive culture of
nuclear laxity means that only reducing the number of weapons can solve
Pavel Podvig, research associate at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation and former
head of the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Research Project, 12 September 2007 (U.S. loose nukes, Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists, he Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Research Project, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-
edition/columnists/pavel-podvig/us-loose-nukes)
We simply don't know how … safe and secure manner.
And, future bent spear incidents risk escalatory accidental nuclear war-reducing the number of weapons in the arsenal
is key to solve
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Jeff Lindemyer, Policy Fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 21 September 2007 (One Mistake
Too Many, Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation,
http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nuclearweapons/articles/one_mistake_too_many/)
The Minot incident raises … mistakes can and do happen.
Accidental nuclear war escalates and kills billions
PR Newswire 1998 (“NEJM Study Warns of Increasing Risk of Accidental Nuclear Attack; Over 6.8 Million Immediate
U.S. Deaths Possible,” Apr 29, LN)
An 'accidental' nuclear attack…with billions of casualties worldwide.
The Second Impact Scenario is Nuclear Terrorism
The bent spear incident demonstrates the lax nuclear safety at Air Force bases-weak security makes nuclear theft and
use inevitable
The Independent 2008 [“Major Lapses in Nuclear Security are Routine” 5-19-08]
In the US, an even-more … an explosion sooner or later.
Weapons awaiting dismantlement are uniquely vulnerable to terrorist acquisition and use-they have already been
striped of protective security devices
Jenkins 2008 [Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President of the RAND Corporation, Will Terrorists Go
Nuclear? Prometheus Books: Amherst (NY) 2008. P 141]
Here again, however, vulnerabilities…render the bombs usable.
And, the bent spear incident proves loose U.S. nuclear weapons are vulnerable to terrorist theft and pose an
existential threat – status quo reforms are insufficient – only getting rid of the weapons solves
Kristensen 2007 [Hans Kristensen, Director Nuclear Information Project at FAS “Nuclear Safety and the Saga about
the Missing Bent Spear” FAS Strategic Security Blog 10-31-07
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/02/nuclear_safety_and_the_saga_ab.php ]
One of the most important …quest seems like a fallacy.
Terrorists have both the means and motivation to detonate a nuclear weapon-acquisition is the only remaining barrier
Matthew Bunn, Harvard Senior Research Associate, Managing the Atom Project, 2004 [Securing the Bomb: An
Agenda for Action, w/ Anthony Wier, May, http://www.nti.org/e_research/analysis_cnwmupdate_052404.pdf]
Reality: This conclusion is …in a Moscow park in 1995).
Finally, nuclear terrorism escalates, culminating in nuclear war and extinction
Speice 2006 – 06 JD Candidate @ College of William and Mary [Patrick F. Speice, Jr., “NEGLIGENCE AND
NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-
RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, February 2006, 47 Wm
and Mary L. Rev. 1427
Accordingly, there is a significant…use of nuclear weapons.
CONTENTION TWO: Russia
Russia is existentially concerned with the U.S. nuclear arsenal-size, not reliability, is the critical factor in Russia’s
security calculus
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Lieber and Press, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame and Associate Professor of
Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, 2006 (Keir A and Daryl G, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy,”
Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006)
Even as Russia's nuclear forces …even more likely to succeed.)
As a result, Russia responds to the U.S. failure to dismantle its nuclear weapons with aggressive force posturing
Amy Woolf, Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs Defense and Trade Division, 16 May 2002 (Arms Control
and Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Unilateral vs. Bilateral Reductions, http://wikileaks.org/leak/crs/RL31222.txt)
Potential for Destabilizing Reversal….and deeply than U.S. forces.
This creates three scenarios for nuclear war: accidents, crisis escalation and pre-emption
Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, 2006 (Keir A and Daryl G, “The End of MAD? The Nuclear
Dimension of U.S. Primacy,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4)
The shift in the nuclear balance…the United States (e.g., in Korea).
And, whether the US intended to threaten Russia is irrelevant—the perception of current nuclear primacy increases the
risk of great power wars, crisis escalation, and accidental nuclear war
Schwartz 2006 (Benjamin, literary editor and the national editor of The Atlantic, “The Perils of Primacy,” The Atlantic
Monthly, Jan/Feb, The Agenda)
To be sure., America's emerging … scrutiny and debate to begin.
Russia-U.S. nuclear war escalates-only scenario for extinction
Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, March, 2002 www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html
A much greater existential…humankind’s potential permanently.
ADDITIONALLY-Russia models U.S. dismantlement rates-fear of U.S. breakout capability precludes Russian
dismantlement creating multiple scenarios for nuclear theft
Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director for Non-Proliferation at Carnegie, 3 April 2002 (Nuclear Terrorism and Warhead Control
in Russia, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=946)
The catch is that, if…early stages of deployment.
And, Russian nuclear security is a joke – weapons are highly vulnerable to terrorist theft
Allison, 2004 (Graham, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Prof of Government at
Harvard, former assistance Sec. Of Defense for policy, Nuclear Terrorism, p. 9-10)
The imminence of this threat…know that I don't know.""
Moreover, lax security means transporting a nuclear weapon would be easy
Allison, ‘4 (Graham, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Prof of Government at
Third, terrorists would not … smuggle in a nuclear bomb."
BUT-Dismantling retired weapons would solve:
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First-Upload Potential.
The massive backlog of nuclear weapons awaiting dismantlement gives the U.S. an unparalleled upload potential for
massive and rapid arsenal breakout.
Bukharin 2002 [Oleg Bukharin Research Scientist at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School “A Breakdown of Breakout”
Arms Control Association October 2002]
Despite Russia’s larger … of concern to the Russians.
Settling the upload would lay the ground work for resolving all nuclear reduction disputes.
Ria Novosti 2009 (“An in-depth look at the Russian press,” 4-22, Lexis)
Russia ready for nuclear…seriously complicate the talks."
Second-Arms control.
As long as the U.S. maintains thousands of weapons in storage to be dismantled status quo reductions in arsenal size
are little more than changes in paperwork.
Jim McBride, Morris News Service, 20 October 2006 (Nuclear Security Administration proposes wider role for Pantex,
http://www.lubbockonline.com/stories/102006/sta_102006110.shtml)
The NNSA wants to keep… in the warheads themselves."
Fortunately, accelerating dismantlement would boost our arms control credibility, assuaging fears of a new arms race.
Walter Pincus, WPost Staff Writer, 4 May 2006 (U.S. to Step Up Disassembly of Older Nuclear Warheads, washington
post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/03/AR2006050302136.html)
Members of Congress have been…in the last few years."
That’s key to prevent multiple scenarios for nuclear escalation
Blank 2009 (Stephen J, Strategic Studies Institute’s expert on the Soviet bloc and the post- Soviet world since 1989
“RUSSIA AND ARMS CONTROL: ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION?,” March,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf.)
Even if one is skeptical … if not nuclear proliferation.
Third-Transparency.
Now is a key time-Russia is cautiously optimistic about trusting Obama; future U.S. actions are key to build confidence
Russia Today 1 April 2009 (Cool Russian Optimism towards USA, http://russiatoday.com/Politics/2009-04-
11/Cool_Russian_optimism_towards_USA.html)
Moscow is optimistic about… said the Russian Foreign Minister.
And, a fulfilling dismantlement obligations would solve Russian perception of verification and U.S. implementation of
arms reductions
William Perry and Brent Scowcroft et al. 2009 (Former Secretary of Defense U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy under
Nixon and Ford and Former Secretary of Defense Under Clinton, Council on Foreign Relations Task Force Report No.
62, http://www.ciaonet.org/pbei/cfr/0016410/f_0016410_14193.pdf)
A proper assessment of progress…setting an international standard.
The plan solves: backlogs contribute to a perception of covert arms racing; accelerating the rate of dismantlement
reassures other powers
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Thomas D'Agostino, director NNSA, 9 May 2007 (The Reliable Replacement Warhead and the Future of U.S. Nuclear
Weapons Program, Remarks at National Defense University,
http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs/speech_DAgostino_NDUHillBreakfastSeries-09May07.pdf)
Our near-term strategy includes…programs of North Korea and Iran.
FORTUNATELY-creating a smaller more credible arsenal is able to walk the line between reassuring allies and
dissuading potential nuclear adversaries
William Perry 2009 (Former Secretary of Defense U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy under Clinton, America's Strategic
Posture, United States Institute of Peace Press, http://www.usip.org/files/America's_Strategic_Posture_Auth_Ed.pdf)
President Obama has stated… only as a defensive last resort.
FINALLY, only dismantling nuclear weapons solves-the plan is necessary to reassure adversaries and allies of the
benign yet credible U.S. arsenal and ensure that nuclear accounting errors won’t continue
Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, 2 May 2007
(Estimates of the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, FAS Strategic Security Blog,
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/05/estimates_of_us_nuclear_weapon.php)
Dismantling the nearly 4,900… about US long-term intentions.
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Harvard Santos/Smith (Dismantlement) [Amy]
Team Name: Harvard SS

Round # 7
vs Team: Wake CaCr
Judge: Mick Sauders
Plan Text
The United States federal government should fund and mandate accelerated dismantlement of its nuclear warheads
slated for dismantlement.
1ac w/ cites
Wiki
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons

Uses uniqueness trick against pretty much everything

Deterrence/Allied Prolif – Dismantlement inevitable, cuts now, allies want smaller arsenal, smaller arsenal better for
deterrence, Acceleration solves best by stabilizing relations w/ Russia
RRW –
Obama won’t trade – Tauscher blocks
RRW Solves Deterrence
RRW Solves Prolif
RRW Solves Terrorism
RAMOS CP –
Analytics about how case is key to solve both Russia and Accidents/Terrorism

Accidents Turn – We did it fast before, can do it again, no impact
1AR Strategy Notes

Nothing in particular
2AR Strategy Notes

Kicked Russia advantage to get out of RAMOS CP, extended reasons RAMOS doesn’t solve
Harvard SS
Round # 2
vs Team: Wake MS
Judge: Nick Miller
Plan Text
Negligence doctrine – on caselist
1ac w/ cites
On caselist
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons
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Impact turned RRW with testing and prolif
Coop outweighs terror turns
1AR Strategy Notes
All in on impact turns – kicked Russia advantage
Harvard SS
GSU Aff Disclosure


First-Accidents
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is key to solve
use inevitable
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security calculus
fa=view&id=946)
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Third-Transparency.
arms reductions
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2AC T
First, we meet-Weapons awaiting dismantlement are in the stockpile; DOD budgeting proves
Melo, Lichterman and Weida 99 [Greg Mello, Los Alamos Study Group, Andrew Lichterman, Los Alamos Study Group
and William Weida, Global Resource Action Center for the Environment “Potential Savings from Reform of DOE
Nuclear Weapons Stewardship and from Nuclear Stockpile Reduction” Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public
Policy Vol. 5 Issue 2]
Direct stockpile activities encompass
Second, your interpretation is bad-does not exclusively define what is not in the stockpile; only a list of possible
weapons in the stockpile. Moreover, your interpretation is not exclusive of what is the nuclear weapons arsenal, but
merely the stockpile.
And, the stockpile and arsenal are distinct terms

MOSHER 2006 [DAVID FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE 1/25/06]
But the topic here today
might change over time
Third, the counter-interpretation: The nuclear weapons arsenal is comprised of all INTACT U.S. nuclear weapons
Tulliu and Schmalberger 2003 [“Coming to terms with security : a lexicon for arms control, disarmament and
confidence-building,” Steve Tulliu and Thomas Schmalberger]
The nuclear infrastructure, note Arkin and Field-house
the nuclear battlefields Civil defense
The weapons must be still intact to be in the arsenal-solves all your interp’s offense
Friedman 2003 [ Benjamin, Research Fellow in Defense and Homeland Security at the CATO Institute, "When is a
Nuke not a Nuke? Center for Defense Information http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?
documentID=928]
According to the NRDC, the United
restricted by the Bush-Putin agreement
And, that includes weapons waiting dismantlement
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Schwartz and Choubey 2009 [Stephen I. Schwartz, Editor of the Non Proliferation Review and Deepti Choubey,
Deputy Director Non Proliferation Program at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace "Nuclear Security Spending"
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace January 2009]
The U.S. nuclear arsenal currently
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64 (March/April 2008): 50–53, 58
Our interpretation is best-
Predictable ground-Dismantling weapons faster is the only way for the neg to generate genuine links off the size
portion of the topic to the deterrence and nuke power DAs. Otherwise, the aff will always win that mere changes in
weapon classification don’t trigger the link.
It’s key core education-Debates in the literature about nuclear disarmament and size reductions are all in the context of
dismantling weapons and the speed with which that should be done.
Default to reasonability-
Otherwise the aff can never win, since they will limit out only one more case
It also shifts the debate to theory rather than substance-that’s boring and bad for education.
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Iowa Stone/Vint (Asteroids) [Stiffy]
Iowa SV
IOWA SV GSU DOUBLES AFF V. MISSOURI STATE FK
Plan:
The United States federal government should require that its nuclear explosive devices may be used only as a means
of last resort for Near Earth Object deflection. We can clarify.
Contention One—No Negative Impact
Major war is obsolete

Mandelbaum ‘99
(Michael, American Foreign Policy Professor in the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, 2-25,
Council on Foreign Relations Great Debate Series, “Is Major War Obsolete?” http://www.ciaonet.org/conf/cfr10/)
So if I am right, then what has been the motor …., slowly, haltingly but increasingly, like that.
Best data proves nuclear war cannot cause nuclear winter

Ball ‘6
(Desmond, prof at the Strategic and Defense Studies Centre at the Australian National Univ, “The Probabilities of On
the Beach: Assessing ‘Armageddon Scenarios’ in the 21st Century,” Working Paper No. 401, Strategic and Defence
Studies Centre at The Australian National University, http://rspas.anu.edu.au/papers/sdsc/wp/wp_sdsc_401.pdf)
I argued vigorously with Sagan about ….. underestimate them (e.g., by omitting fallout casualties).
Contention Two—Near Earth Objects
Risk of a strike is high

Easterbrook ‘8
(Gregg, Editor of The Atlantic and The New Republic and Sr. Fellow at Brookings, “The Sky is Falling,” June,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/asteroids)
Breakthrough ideas have a way of seeming obvious …..entire human race is riding on the plane.”
We’re overdue for a major collision

Ghayur ‘7
(Lecturer, University Institute of Information Technology, UAAR, 07 <A., Developing a Three Period Strategy to Face a
Global Threat: A Preliminary Analysis http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/2007papers/P5-1--Ghayur--
Paper.pdf)
Human civilization has come a long …an institution to respond timely and effectively?
Detection is improving—we’ll discover thousands of potentially hazardous NEOs

Jones ‘8
(Thomas, fellow at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, “Asteroid deflection: Planning for the
inevitable,” Aerospace America, October, lexis)
AS NASA's Spaceguard Survey searches ….. planning, and timely decision-making.
Probability and magnitude are 100 percent

Kunich ’97
(John, Lt. Colonel USAF, B.S., M.S., University of Illinois; J.D., Harvard Law School; LL.M., George Washington
University School of Law, Staff Judge Advocate 50th Space Wing, Falcon Air Force Base, 41 Air Force L. Rev. 119,
lexis)
Irrespective of the ultimate resolution of these controversies, …..with a role played by the military, including the United
States Air Force.
Even a small NEO strike outweighs nuclear war

Schweickart ‘4
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(Russell, Chair of the B612 Foundation, “Near-Earth Objects,” testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce,
Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, Apr.7 CQ, lexis)
First I'd like to thank you for the invitation to …..weapon in the current U.S. nuclear arsenal.
Small NEO could kill the planet via ozone depletion

MacCracken ‘7
(Michael C., fellow at the Climate Institute, Ch. 16: The Climatic Effects of Asteroid and Comet Impacts:
Consequences for an Increasingly Interconnected Society, in Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An
Interdisciplinary Approach, SpringLink)
During and following an impact, nitric …. from the largest impacts appears quite plausible.
Ozone depletion causes complete extinction

Greenpeace ‘95
(Full of Holes: Montreal Protocol and the Continuing Destruction of the Ozone Layer -- A GREENPEACE REPORT
with contributions from OZONE ACTION -- http://archive.greenpeace.org/ozone/holes/holebg.html)
When chemists Sherwood Rowland and ….. literally the continuation of life on earth.
Extinction is categorically different from any other impact—even if they win a nuclear war kills 99 percent of the
population, an asteroid strike still outweighs by an order of magnitude
Matheny ‘7
(Jason G., Prof of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University,
“Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” Risk Analysis, v27n5)
Even if extinction events are improbable, …. humanity and those that threaten 100%.
Contention Three—Role of the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal
The US has obligated itself to take the lead in NEO defense—superiority of US nuclear weapons policy, space policy,
and customs governing missile defense mean the world will pressure to the US to deflect
Koplow ‘5
(Justin, JD Candidate Georgetown Univ. Law Center, 17 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 273, lexis)
The fundamental procedures of intercepting ….. in the bargaining for such deals and understandings. 132
NASA is committing the US into a nuclear-only deflection system that’s doomed to fail
Chapman ‘6
<Clark, Senior Scientist, Southwest Research Institute Dept. of Space Studies, Boulder CO and Member of the Board,
B612 Foundation, Critique of "2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report" Published 28 Dec.
2006 by NASA Hq. Program Analysis & Evaluation Office, http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-CritChap.doc>
Furthermore, the Report takes a totally ….t is "developed" in the middle paragraph of pg. 61.].)
Nuclear option will fail, but the public will demand nuclear weapons unless we reduce their role
Schweickart ‘4
(Russell, Chair of the B612 Foundation, former astronaut, Executive Vice President of CTA Commercial Systems, Inc.
and Director of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Systems and research, and scientist at the Experimental Astronomy Laboratory
of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), “Asteroid Deflection; Hopes and Fears,” Aug., Presented at the
World Federation of Scientists Workshop on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Sicily, August 2004
http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/Asteroid_Deflection.doc)
The nuclear explosive options will all be strongly …. even the most fragile, can reliably be used.
NASA commitment to nuclear weapons is flawed—nuclear blast causes return orbit

Schweickart ‘7
(Russell, Apollo 9 astronaut & Chair of the B612 Foundation, “Near-Earth Objects,” testimony before the Committee on
House Science and Technology Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics, Nov. 8, CQ, lexis)
B612 Foundation believes that NASA's analysis of ….. revisit this matter. I list below, inter alia, a few suggestions in
this regard.
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Our nuclear deflection method will fail, and the warheads will explode on Earth
IAA ‘9
(International Academy of Astronautics, “Dealing with the Threat To Earth From Asteroids and Comets,”
http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf)
There is a persistent notion in lay circles …. undesirable if not essentially ruled out.
Nuclear explosions are imprecise and cause fragmentation making the impact worse
Lu ‘4
(Statement of Dr. Ed Lu President, B612 Foundation, “Near-Earth Objects,” testimony before the Committee on Senate
Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, Apr.7 CQ, lexis)
Why does the asteroid need to be moved in …..other asteroids for the purposes of resource utilization.
Even dust fragments cause an explosion on Earth

Nemchinov et al. ‘8
(Ivan Nemchinov, Valery Shuvalov, & Vladmir Svetsov, Institute for Dynamics of Geospheres, Russian Academy of
Sciences, “Main Factors of Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids,” in Catastrophic Events Caused by Cosmic
Objects, pg 58-59)
If the NEO cannot be deflected away from …. for obtaining such data for small cosmic objects.
Fragmentation causes oxygen depletion and extinction

Verschurr ‘96
(Gerrit, adjunct professor of physics for the U of Memphis, Impact: The Threat of Asteroids and Comets, pg. 40)
Did consider are potential risk to earth ….. transformed into a desolate and barren rock.
Fragmentation prevents other forms of deflection

Chapman ‘3
(Clark, scientist at the Southwest Research Institute's Department of Space Studies, Great Impact Debates, Collision
Course for Earth 3/03 http://www.astrobio.net/index.php?option=com_debate&task=detail&id=389)
Clark Chapman: The advantage of using …. to affect what happens next. In short, it is a very bad idea.
Stand-off blast fails

Schweickart ‘4
The hard options consist of various ….. remain skeptical about the nuclear options.
Stand-off blast will be absorbed

Fountain ‘2
(Henry, New York Times correspondent, Armageddon Can Wait: Stopping Killer Asteroids, November 19,
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/science/space/19ASTE.html)
But it is becoming clear that a longtime …. orbit enough to change a hit into a close call.
Standoff blast carries the same risk as a direct strike

Merali ‘5
(Zeeya, PhD in physics, New Scientist, lexis)
WHEN it comes to deflecting an asteroid ….this would require makes it impractical, says Lu.
Nuclear deflection has a long timeframe

Carusi et al. ‘2
(Andrea Carusi, Giovanni B. Valsecchi, Germano D’Abramo, and Andrea Boattini, Area Ricerca Tor Vergata, IASF-
CNR, Via del Fosso del Cavaliere, Rome, Italy, “Deflecting NEOs in Route of Collision with the Earth,” Icarus, vol. 159,
pg. 417 – 22)
However, the use of very large (Gigaton) ….. weapons and about the risk of failure in orbiting them.
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Nuclear weapons fail to deflect porous NEOs

Fountain ‘2
(Henry, New York Times correspondent, Armageddon Can Wait: Stopping Killer Asteroids, November 19,
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/science/space/19ASTE.html)
What makes some of these alternatives promising …..would work equally well whether an asteroid is porous or not,"
he added.
Most NEOs are porous

Housen ‘3
(Kevin and Keith Holsapple, Physical Sciences, MS 2T-50, The Boeing Company and Department of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, 352400, U of Washington Impact cratering on porous asteroids, Icarus 163 (2003) 102–119)
Although asteroids have long been suspected of having ….. estimated porosity of _50% (Veverka et al., 1999; Britt et
al., 2002).
Contention Four—Non-Nuclear Alternatives
Nuclear weapons should be considered a means of last resort

IAA ‘9
(International Academy of Astronautics, “Dealing with the Threat To Earth From Asteroids and Comets,”
http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf
It is also a fact that enshrined in the ….. of last resort, much as they are generally considered for use against targets
on the Earth.
The world is awaiting America’s lead

France ‘2k
(Martin, Lt. Colonel, USAF, “Planetary Defense: Eliminating the Giggle Factor, Air & Space Power Journal,
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/france2.html)
A key component of the Shoemaker …..identification to concerned groups and fellow participants.
U.S. unilateral action solves best

Barrett ‘6
(Scott, Professor and Director of International Policy, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins
University and Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Center for the Study of Globalization, Yale University, 6 Chi. J. Int'l L. 527,
lexis)
But can we expect that this public good will …. their obligation to pay their fair share.
U.S. leadership essential to effective planetary defense

Dinerman ‘9
(Taylor, journalist for the Space Review “The new politics of planetary defense,” The Space Review, 7-20,
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1418/1)
While the US is obviously going to have to ......setting the stage for a disaster.
Current emphasis on nuclear deflection siphons resources from alternatives—reducing the role of nuclear weapons
forces NASA to turn to slow push techniques
Boyle ‘7
(Alan, winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award, member of the board of
the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing, and staff writer for MSNBC.com, “Dueling Over Asteroids,”
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/03/21/97410.aspx)
That's why he's taking the new report ....... wanted to do non-nuclear," Yeomans told me.
Early warning means deflection tech will be ready in time

British National Space Centre ‘2k
(British National Space Centre, Report of the Task Force on Potentially Hazardous Near Earth Objects,
http://www.spacecentre.co.uk/neo/report.html)
A number of possible mechanisms have …. into the practical possibilities of deflection.
Gravity tractor solves

Stone ‘8
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(Richard, editor for Science Magazine, National Geographic, “Target Earth,” 8-1, lexis)
Then he and Stanley Love, a fellow …..missing Earth by tens of thousands of miles.
Mirrors solve
Engineer ‘7
(The Engineer, The Big Picture: Mirrored Army to Protect Earth, 10-15, lexis)
A fleet of satellites carrying ….. 10 satellites and 200 days.'
Kinetic impactor solves

Koenig & Chyba ‘7
(Jesse D. and Christopher F., SpaceDev Inc and Department of Astrophysical Sciences and Program on Science and
Global Security, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Impact Deflection of Potentially Hazardous
Asteroids Using Current Launch Vehicles, http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/2007papers/S2-3--
Koenig-Paper.pdf)
Nuclear explosions, and a wide variety …..least risky, and fastest to effect.
Direct push solves

Schweickart ‘4
Finally there is the concept of the direct ….. polite interest but nothing more.
Deflection technologies can work together

Schweickart ‘7
(Rusty, former astronaut head of B612 Foundation, The Sky Is Falling. Really. March 16,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/16/opinion/16schweickart.html?_r=1)
The good news is that scientists feel ….. near the asteroid — to fine-tune its new trajectory to our liking.
topicality 2ac
Reduce means to diminish in size, amount, extent, or number : lessen—Webster’s ’93

(Webster’s Third New International Dictionary, 1993, “reduce,” p. 1905)
Substantial is arbitrary—must be defined in context

Words & Phrases ‘2
(Vol. 40A, 2002, p. 464)
Substantial means “of real worth and importance, distinguished from something nominal”—Blacks Law ’90 (Black’s
Law Dictionary, 6th ed. p.1428)
Substantial means 50 percent

Young ‘1
(William, Chief Judge, U.S. District Court for the Dist. of Mass., author of majority opinion, Davignon v. Clemmey, 176
F. Supp. 2d 77 (Dist. Mass. 2001)).
What is a "substantial reduction"?
NEO deflection is a mission

Pilat & Scheinman ’93
(Joseph and Lawrence, Panel I: What is the Nuclear Mission?, Defense Conversion and the Future of the National
Nuclear Weapons Laboratories, Proceedings of a Conference Held at Cornell University,
http://www.einaudi.cornell.edu/PeaceProgram/publications/occasional_papers/occasional-paper18.pdf)
The future of extended …. necessary functions of nuclear weapons.
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The resolution does not include the phrase “in national security strategy”
Sagan ‘9
Scott D., Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for International
Security and Cooperation Survival, vol 51, #3, June-July, 163-182
In his 5 April 2009 speech in Prague, US President Barack Obama promised that ‘to put an end to Cold War thinking,
we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and urge others to do the same’. The
forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), mandated by Congress, provides the administration an opportunity to
honour that commitment. To reduce the role of nuclear weapons in national security strategy, however, the next NPR
must abandon the long-standing US policy of threatening to use its nuclear weapons first in a variety of military
scenarios. This basic step was not taken in the George W. Bush administration’s 2001 NPR, despite its claim to
institute ‘a major change in our approach to the role of nuclear offensive forces in our deterrent strategy’ and call to
‘both reduce our dependence on nuclear weapons and improve our ability to deter attack in the face of proliferating
[weapons of mass destruction (WMD)] capabilities’. Indeed, the 2001 NPR contradicted these stated ambitions by
maintaining that nuclear weapons were still necessary to ‘provide credible military options to deter a wide range of
threats, including WMD and large-scale conventional military force’.
This means it’s topical to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in near earth object defense. The resolution is not limited
to deterrence or national security. Those terms were excluded from the resolution, and you have to presume that
words were excluded for a purpose
Mahon ‘1
(Eldon, Federal Judge for the Northern Dist. of TX, U.S. Fleet Servs. v. City of Fort Worth, 141 F. Supp. 2d 631
(2001)).
To find that the Flammable Liquids ….of the Flammable Liquids Administrative Rules in favor of U.S. Fleet.
Mission means destroying a particular type of target, and this is distinct from goal
Oelrich ‘5
Ivan, Director, Strategic Security Program, Federation of American Scientists, Missions for Nuclear Weapons after the
Cold War, January, http:// www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/armscontrol/missionsaftercwrptfull.pdf, pp. 15-16
Before proceeding, we need two definitions….. between specific missions and general goals.
NEO deflection is a mission

NASA ‘6
(“2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study” http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-finalrpt.pdf)
The use of nuclear explosives was found …. were ineffective against most threats.
Role is a function performed by something in a particular situation, process, or operation—Webster’s ’93

(Webster’s Third New International Dictionary, 1993, “role,” p.1968)
NEO deflection is NASA’s argument against disarm

Schweickart & Graham ‘8
(Russell, former astronaut who flew on Apollo 9, heads the B612 Foundation, & Thomas, special representative of the
president for arms control in the 1990s and now chairs Thorium Power Ltd., “NASA's Flimsy Argument for Nuclear
Weapons,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=nasas-flimsy-argument-for-nuclear-
weapons)
On January 4, 2007, the Wall Street Journal …. Love, in Nature; November 10, 2005].
Roles and missions are vague—give us leeway

Browne et al. ‘8
John, Los Alamos National Laboratory Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century: U.S. National Security, Joint Working
Group Report, December,http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/upload/nuclear-weapons.PDF, p. 3
U.S. nuclear policy and strategy ….. emerging nuclear-armed neighboring states.
AFF GSU Disclosure

Contention 1: Non Proliferation
The Obama administration will continue to maintain a policy of first use- this flies in the face of NPT commitments
Butfoy 2008[Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, Survival vol.
50 no. 5]
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But Washington’s first-use stance was supposedly …. back from ruling out first-use options.9
Scenario 1: 2010 Conference
Short of a NFU the 2010 conference will fail- This would collapse the NPT
Bunn and du Preez 07 [George, First general counsel for the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, helped
negotiate the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and later became U.S. ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament.
Jean, director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies in the Monterey Institute of International Studies. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_07-08/NonUse?.]
Although it is too early to predict how the 2010 …. in the context of the NPT is the way to go.
A unilateral no first use policy brings holdouts to the review conference
Berry 09 [Ken, ICNND Research Coordinator, International Commission on Nuclear Non proliferation and
Disarmament, http://www.icnnd.org/research/Berry_Non_Use_Treaty.pdf]
As noted in the Introduction, one obvious ….they would be prepared to consider.

A change in policy by the Obama administration creates momentum that allows for a successful Conference
Preez 06 [Jean Du, director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation program at the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies in the Monterey Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Lexis]
Like-minded coalitions, new and existing, could …. and positive message to the wider NPT membership.
The 2010 conference is the litmus test for the NPT
Preez 06 [Jean Du, director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation program at the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies in the Monterey Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Lexis]
The treaty is not yet on the brink of …. way in which it was extended in perpetuity.
Collapse of the 2010 conference independently causes rapid proliferation, speeds up current nuclear acquisition
efforts, and remove the drive to resolve Iranian nuclear ambitions. A universal NFU that includes chemical and
biological weapons is key
Raghavan 09 [Lieutenant General V.R., India’s leading military strategic thinkers. “Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A
Debate” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/abolishing_nuclear_weapons_debate.pdf]
This fine paper combines political and ….. that the United States give its allies.
NPT collapse causes rapid global proliferation.
Bromley et al 02 [Mark, British American Security Information Council analyst, July 2002 Bunker Busters:
Washington’s Drive for New Nuclear Weapons, p. 71 http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2002BB.pdf]
Of all the international regimes to be affected … real and universally recognised.

NPT collapse causes extinction.
Akiba03 [Tadatoshi, Mayor, City of Hiroshima, 4-25 Mayor's Speech at the MPI Strategy Meeting
http://www.city.hiroshima.jp/shimin/heiwa/mpi-speech.html]
The NPT has long been the only brake ….. the extinction of the entire human species.
Scenario 2: Non-Proliferation Norms
Plan builds goodwill within the NPT
Graham 06 [Thomas Jr., Chairman, Bipartisan Security Group, Global Security Institute, CQ Congressional Testimony,
Lexis]
Some have argued that if the U.S. were ….nuclear weapons by others.
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And a NFU creates coalitions that allows the US to push for more stringent non-prolif norms
Stanley Foundation 08 [Conference including, Sagan, Martin, Linton Brooks, Bunn, Podvig, Tannenwald, Nolan, Miller,
Drell, Scoblic, Eden, Ferguson, Hecker, Holloway, Isaacs, Jeanloz, May, Nacht, Wilkening, Youngsmith, Mehta, and
Tessler. In other words there were a lot over very qualified people helping craft the report. “The Stanley Foundation: A
New Look At No First Use Of Nuclear Weapon”,
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm]
NFU could also affect US policy …. telling your children not to smoke.”
First use undermines credibility at the NPT review conferences and minimizes the state departments diplomatic
leverage over non proliferation
Butfoy 02 [Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, Contemporary
Security Policy, Vol.23, No.2 (August 2002)]
Threats of first-use make it awkward …. role of nuclear weapons.22
This policy undermines multilateral arms control and lowers the nuclear threshold
Butfoy 08 [Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, Survival vol. 50
no. 5]
A study of the opinions of non-US …. on nuclear weapons.60
Moreover the norm shift will cause rapid proliferation- risks nuclear war
Freidman 02 [Benjamin, The Center for Defense Information, http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/frb02/index.html]
Arms control advocates attack proponents …. power with their potential adversaries.
Rapid prolif will end in escalating nuclear shootouts.
Utgoff, ‘2 (Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses.
Survival. 44:2 Summer)
Many readers are probably …. of dead cities or even whole nations.
Scenario 3: Iran
The US will negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program now
Aljazeera 9/12 [Lexis]
The US and five partner countries …. in the future," Crowley said.
Regardless of the outcome threat of nuclear first use prevents effective solutions
Regehr 06 [Ernie, co-founder of Project Ploughshares, adjunct associate professor in peace studies at Conrad Grebel
University College, and fellow ….with any nuclear weapon state.
NSA increases the efficacy of diplomacy with Iran- undermines domestic forces pushing for nuclear weapons
Sagan 09 [Scott D., Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation. Survival vol. 51 no. 3]
A US no-first-use declaration would also …. it faces nuclear threats.
These domestic forces are the causes of nuclearization- NFU’s solve
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Goldemberg 06 [Jose, Secretary for the environment for the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo. He has served as the
country's secretary of state for science and technology as well as minister of education and was also president of the
Brazilian Association for the Advancement of Science. Arms Control Today, Lexis]
In the Middle East, only political …. rather than traditional nonproliferation tools.
The nuclear threat outweighs others
Butfoy 08 [Andy, Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia,
http://apo.org.au/commentary/will-us-surrender-nuclear-first-use-option]
It’s not that Bush wants to press the button. …. 160 countries, the US said “no.”
1AC (11/ )
Without the plan Iran won’t come to the table
Blix and Gross 06 [Hans, former director of International Atomic Energy Agency and now head of Weapons of Mass
Destruction Commission, talks about the commission's goal and its report to the UN on weapons of mass destruction,
and Terry, at Fresh Air. Fresh Air, Lexis]
GROSS: Let's take a look at Iran… they don't want to stop the uranium.
NFU solves Iranian proliferation
Sagan 06 [Scott D., Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation
at Stanford University, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2006]
Most important, however, would be a … Tehran from getting the bomb.
Negative security assurances alleviate Iranian security fears- negotiations will require a NSA to all states in the Middle
East
Jakobsen and Bowen 07 [Martin F. and Nicholas at the Danish Institute for International Studies,
http://www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/Briefs2007/mja_iranien_nuclear_crisis.pdf]
Whilst the ongoing discussions in the …. could be a stepping stone to a lasting solution.
They will give up their nuclear program
Albright, 06 [President of the Institute for Science and International Security and a former weapons inspector for the
IAEA, 2-6, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9780/albright.html]
I think so. Both North Korea and Iran face the problem that the Bush administration has been very aggressive about
challenging both regimes. And …. security guarantee to Iran.
Plan guarantees support from Russia and China that allows for successful engagement with Iran
Steinbruner 08
[John, director of the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) and chairman of the board of
directors of the Arms Control Association. Arms Control Today, October Lexis]
It is not evident that entanglement in civil …. interpreted history may appear to be. ACT
Iranian prolif causes a cascade of prolif throughout the region and hair-trigger nuclear crises – nuclear war is
guaranteed.
Allison, 06 [Graham, Harvard Government Professor, Boston Globe, May 12]
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Before accepting the answer that the … of a regional nuclear war.
Contention 2: Conflict Instability

Scenario 1: India
Shift in US policy will spur India to remove its first use policy which lowers risk of nuclear conflict with Pakistan
Sagan 09 [Scott D., Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation. Survival vol. 51 no. 3]
US officials have long claimed that US … in the opposite direction.
Plan solidifies India’s NFU
Berry June 09 [Ken, ICNND Research Coordinator, International Commission on Nuclear Non proliferation and
While some nuclear-armed states such …. use them, currently remain unclear.
A nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan now- US force posture is the cause
Koshy 6/4 [Ninan, formerly Visiting Fellow, Harvard Law School and author of War on Terror: Reordering the World
and Under the Empire: India's New Foreign Policy. Asia Times,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF04Df03.html]
The new Indian Minister of State for Defense ….are witnessing now.
Modernization runs the risk of instability
Khan 09 [Feroz, Hassan, on the faculty of the US Naval Postgraduate School. He is a former director of Arms Control
and Disarmament Affairs in Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, Joint Services Quarters. The Henry L. Stimson Center.
http://www.stimson.org/nuke/pdf/PAKISTAN_ISRAEL.pdf]
India’s strategic modernization program includes …growing threat it perceives from India.
Weaponization destabilizes deterrence in South Asia – causing crisis escalation and accidents.
Chari, 01
(P.R., Director of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, “Nuclear Restraint, Nuclear Risk Reduction, and the
Security-Insecurity Paradox in South Asia,” THE STABILITY-INSTABILJTY PARADOX: NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
BRINKSMANSHIP IN SOUTH ASIA, Eds; Michael Krepon & Chris Gagne, June)
It could be argued that the non-weaponized nuclear …. in a deployed nuclear posture.

Indo-Pak conflict causes extinction.
Fai, 01 (Executive Director of the Washington-based Kashmiri American Council.

http://pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html )
The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than
53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars between the estranged
South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the
entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. The Director
of Central Intelligence, the Department of Defense, and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their
nuclear worries. Both India and Pakistan are racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced
delivery vehicles. Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. Neither
country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an
inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.
Scenario 2: Accidents
First use policy obscures nuclear chain of command- causes accidental launch
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Guangqian and Yu 09 [Peng, editor-in-chief of Strategic Sciences and has long been engaged in research on military
strategy and international affairs. Rong, Ph. D. candidate at the Institute of International Strategy and Development,
School of Public Policy and Management. China Security, Vol. 5 No. 1 Winter 2009, pp. 78-87]
Another challenge to the NFU movement …unauthorized launch cannot be ruled out.12
The change in posture decreases risks of accidents
Milne 02 [Tom, Staff Writer for Pugwash, http://ciaonet.org/wps/mit01/]
This was the basis of the case made … changes to force posture.
The plan prevents unauthorized launches- nuclear cannon shells
The risk of accidental or unauthorized … essentially a first strike weapon.
It leads to de-alert posture
A NFU commitment could take …. environment in which first use is less likely.
Plan results in a de-alert posture
Miller 02 [Steven E., Director, International Security Program; Editor-in-Chief, International Security; Co-Principal
Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
http://ciaonet.org/wps/mis01/]
This proposition - that states should seek …dominated by deterrence and NFU.
Instant nuclear war via accident, miscalculation, and fear remains a high probability—short timeline for nuclear
response and Launch on Warning doctrine guarantee it
Blair and Samson 08 (Bruce and Victoria, president of world security institute and security analyst at CDI respectively,
http://www.peaceactionme.org/taking-nuclear-forces-day-day-alert)
At the end of the Cold War, both …. spark a nuclear strike and nuclear war
Accidental nuclear launch likely and will cause extinction
Caldicott ‘9 (Helen, MD and Pediatrician Founding President, Physicians for Social Responsibility, Canadian Medical
Association Journal, Jan. 20, http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2621284)
As US President Barack Obama assumes …. to eliminate global hunger and preventable diseases.
Text: The United States federal government should declare a policy of no first use, remove the expectation of first use
of nuclear weapons from the military war plans, end military training exercises that involve scenarios of first use of
nuclear weapons, and modify the force composition to be compatible with a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons
Contention 3: Solvency
Plan solves- doing all the steps is necessary for the proposal to appear legitimate
Miller 02 [Steven E., Director, International Security Program; Editor-in-Chief, International Security; Co-Principal
Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
http://ciaonet.org/wps/mis01/]
If NFU is to be more than a declaratory policy, …no one has them no one needs them.
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Changing the war plans is essential to shore up non-proliferation norms
Stanley Foundation 08 [Conference including, Sagan, Martin, Linton Brooks, Bunn, Podvig, Tannenwald, Nolan, Miller,
Drell, Scoblic, Eden, Ferguson, Hecker, Holloway, Isaacs, Jeanloz, May, Nacht, Wilkening, Youngsmith, Mehta, and
Tessler. In other words there were a lot over very qualified people helping craft the report. “The Stanley Foundation: A
New Look At No First Use Of Nuclear Weapon”,
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm]
Throughout the Cold War, the United … norms and aid its nonproliferation efforts.
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Johnson County Bresllin/Hartkopp (Preemption)
<<should run caroline doctrine cp>>
plan text: The US federal government should eliminate any expansion of

the role or missions of (nuclear w/our using word) that was originally
proposed as part of the revisions made to the Doctrine for Joint
Nuclear Operations.
Observation I: The Status Quo

First, A highly controversial decision to publish documents detailing the plan to allow use of nuclear weapons to
preemptively strike targets was cancelled. This does not mean the program was cancelled, merely that public
disclosure of the program was cancelled. There are still plans to allow the US to premptively attack certain targets.
The Nuclear Information Project in 2006
A Project Directed By Hans Kristenson, (co-authors the World Nuclear Forces for the __SIPRI Yearbook__ (Sweden)
and the __Nuclear Notebook__ in the //__Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists__//. Kristensen has more than 15 years
experience in using the Freedom of Information Act) “The American Federation of Scientists “Pentagon Cancels
Controversial Doctrine” http://www.nukestrat.com/us/ jcs/canceled.htm
Second, This new doctrine dramatically expands the role of nuclear weapons allowing for preemptive strikes against
"rogue" groups. It also expands the role and mission of nuclear weapons away from mere deterrence to battlefield
destruction of targets
Arms Control Association, Sept. 2005
“The Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons: New Doctrine Falls Short of Bush Pledge” __http://www.armscontrol.org/
act/2005_09/Kristensen__
Third, the doctrinal shift resulted in a new global strike plan for the use of nuclear weapons in regional scenarios. This
global strike plan allow for the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons in regional scenarios against rogue states and non-
state actors.

“The Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons: New Doctrine Falls Short of Bush Pledge” http://www.armscontrol.org/
act/2005_09/Kristensen
Finally, The nuclear option is currently the only executable component of the Global Strike Plan
Kristenson in 2007
Hans, (The Federation of American Scientists in 2007) “STRATCOM Cancels Controversial Preemption Strike Plan”
FAS Strategic Security Blog. __http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/ 2008/07/globalstrike.php__
Thus the Plan:

The United States Federal Government should eliminate any expansion of the role or missions of nuclear weapons
that was originally proposed as part of the 2005 revisions made to the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations.
Advantage One: Terrorist Discourse

First, the change in policy is specifically meant to allow for the preemptive use of nuclear weapons against what the
United States considers terrorist organizations or rogue states. This codifies into US nuclear policy a new role of
nuclear weapons in the War on Terrorism.
“The Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons: New Doctrine Falls Short of Bush Pledge” http://www.armscontrol.org/
act/2005_09/Kristensen
Second, Increasing the militarized response to the terrorist threat is an action based on fear. The sense of danger and
fear inscribed by these responses leads to militarism and constructed lines between superiority and inferiority.
Campbell, '98 [David, Professor International Politics at University of New Castle, "Writing Security; United States
Foreign Policy the Politics of Identity," p. 31-33]
The militarized response is used as a justification for neoliberal, imperialist wars. They represent the basis for United
States Genocidal expansion.
Singh, associate professor of history @ univ of Washington ,2K6
(Nikhil “The Afterlife of Fascism” South Atlantic Quarterly 105:1 Winter)
The terminal impact to this ideology is extinction. The belief that we need to save humanity through imperialism,
neoliberalism, militarism, and genocide will eventually lead to the destruction of humanity.
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Santos in 2k3 (Boaventura de Sousa, director of the Center for Social Studies at the University of Coimbra,
EUROZINE, COLLECTIVE SUICIDE OR GLOBALIZATION FROM BELOW, __http://www.eurozine.com/ article/2003-
03-26-santos-en. html__)
Advantage II: Nuclear Orientalism
The decision to develop a premeptive nuclear response was almost exclusively based on the fear of and the need to
prevent Middle Eastern Nuclear Proliferation. This is the central focus of the policy to target what the United States
Considers "Rogue States"
Chossudovsky in 2006
Michael, (__Canadian__ __economist__. He is a __professor__ of economics at the __University of Ottawa__ and
Prominent member of the Candian Anti-war Movement) "The Next Phase of the Middle East War" Global Research
__http://www.globalexchange.org/ countries/mideast/lebanon/ 4187.html__
This policy is rooted in the desire to control disorder through a racialized construction of people who live in these so-
called "rogue nations" This desire is accomplished by nuclear apartheid in which the minority are assumed irrational
and sub-humanBiswas 01
Shampa, “nuclear apartheid as a political position: race as a postcolonial resource?” Alternatives: Global, Local,
Political V26 N4 __http://findarticles.com/p/ articles/mi_hb3225/is_4_26/ai_ n28886584/__ jms
Also, The binary that racism creates is the root of war, genocide, and colonialism. It is the root of fear that forces us to
be ready to kill and destroy, with premeptive use of nuclear weapons, that which we feel threatened by.
Mendieta in 2002
Eduardo, Professor SUNY at Stony Brook: ‘To make live and to let die’ –Foucault on Racism APA Central Division
Meeting –Chicago, April 25th, 2002 __http://www.sunysb.edu/ philosophy/faculty/emendieta/ articles/foucault.pdf__
Finally, Politics of fear creates socially constructed enemies we need to deter. This fear is a self-fulfilling prophecy in
which our social construction of enemies creates real enemies that we must destroy in order to remain insecure.
Chernus in 2005
IRA, PROFESSOR OF RELIGIOUS STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDERBeyond the In-security
State:Where Fear Can’t Take Us, __http://spot.colorado.edu/~ chernus/NewspaperColumns/
OtherTopics/GripOfFear.htm__
Observation II: Solvency

The Affirmative’s critique of these hegemonic discourses opens up space for better and more responsible discourses
and narratives
Jackson in 2007
Richard, “Constructing Enemies: ‘Islamic Terrorism’ in Political and Academic Discourse”
Government and Opposition 42 (3), p. 394–426.
The identification and criticism of problematic labels codified by the state opens up critical space for effective policy
solutions
Jackson in 2007
Richard, “Constructing Enemies: ‘Islamic Terrorism’ in Political and Academic Discourse”
Government and Opposition 42 (3), p. 394–426.
Allowing for the use of nuclear weapons against non-state actors is based on the desire to limit proliferation. The policy
is based on racist and orientalist ideology that is rooted in fear. The plan is necessary to overcome the failures of US
Policy.
Izadi and Saghaye-Biria 07
Foad and Hakimeh, (Mass Com. Professors at the LSU) “The case of Iran’s Nuclear Program” Journal of
Communication Inquiry v31 n2 (jms)
The plan is the mechanism by which problematic ideological representations can be challenged. This real world
approach has value even if the mechanism is unsuccessful. The plan is a prerequisite to any change outside of the
state.
Gorham in 99
(Bradley, Doctoral Candidate at University of Wisconsin-Madison, The Howard Journal of Communications,
Stereotypes in the Media: So What?, Spring)
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Kansas Kennedy/Quigley (Labs?) [Phil]
AFF - Harvard Round 3 - v Michigan LZ
The SSP replaced the original testing mission of the nuclear arsenal with a never-ending nuclear science fair. The SSP
has created machines that abstract the destructive power of the bomb in science projects that study the first
microseconds of explosions. These tests are fun, exciting; they offer weapons scientists a chance to ignore the already
existing weapons and instead search for the mythic first-principles of the bomb’s power. The SSP is an attempt to run
from the bodily terror produced by the bomb and convert it into a purely useful form. Through endless simulation, the
materials science of the bomb becomes an end in itself, dedicated only to giving bored scientists something to do. The
ends of the bomb are lost as the stockpile is converted from a political institution into an object of aesthetic fascination
Joseph Masco, “Nuclear Borderlands”, 53-55, 2006
By separating the nuclear future from an arms race that the United States… articulate an expanding view of the
nuclear future.
Purely aesthetic rendering of nuclear science depoliticizes it – renders the reproduction of nuclear technology
inevitable. It is not the beauty of the bomb that is bad, rather it is the scientists
Masco, 96-98, 2006
The question SBSS ultimately exposes, I would argue, is not how to maintain nuclear weapons… technoaesthetic
spectacle par excellence.
The SSP makes technological progress appear an inevitable part of the world rather than a series of everyday
decisions.
Masco, p. 14-15, 2006
But if, as Stein argues, the bomb is banal, how did it come to be… always preparing for the “unthinkable.”
Even if the materials science itself doesn’t depoliticize technology, any remaining vestige of the stewardship mandate
will be redeployed by DOE to close off nuclear policy from deliberation and ensure technocratic control.
Bryan Taylor and Judith Henry, Rhetoric & Public Affairs, “Insisting on Persisting: The Nuclear Rhetoric of “Stockpile
Stewardship””, 11:2, 2008
Audiences attempting to follow the story of nuclear weapons in the post-Cold War era… SSP and its rhetorical
situation.
Stewardship mandates gives this depoliticized science control on the levers of power
Taylor and Henry, 2008
Through these arguments, we come to understand how the potential… levers of U.S. nuclear weapons policy.”
There is also structural spillover – certification process ensures that this knowledge determines broader nuclear policy
Andrew Lichterman and Jacqueline Cabasso, 2000, Online
The SS&M program will increase the political power of the nuclear weapons labs and their control over weapons-
reltaed information, and may thus help… essentially a judgement call by the laboratories.
This depoliticized knowledge creates regimes oftruth within nuclear science which makes more effective science
impossible – policy action can reverse it
Laura McNamara, “Nuclear Legacies, Communication, Controversy, and the US Nuclear Weapons Complex”, p. 193,
2006
So, even without a return to testing, the weapons laboratories seem… remarkably resilient regime of nuclear truth.
AND This depoliticization mandates escalatory war and makes peaceful resolution of conflicts impossible
Anthony Burke, “Ontologies of War”, Theory and Event, 10:2, 2007
This closed circle of existential and strategic reason generates… arguably examples of such ontologies in action.
Depoliticized weapons science leads to extinction – must have democratic forms of knowledge to contest complex
expansion
Marko Beljac, “Mission Statement”, 2008, Online
But it cannot be stated that the mere existence of a faculty of scientific cognition foreordains an extinction event…
remove the public subsidy that undergirds the pentagon system.
Collapses security priorities within the scientific community – moving away from status-quo national security science is
key to environmental science that prevents extinction
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Joseph Masco, “Bad Weather: On Planetary Crisis”, 2008, 11-14

Returning to the synthetic forest of 1953 (see figure 1) we can see in the fury of the nuclear blast… post-national vision
of American power.
We’re not saying that tech, science, or rationality are always bad, we’re just not able to tell us what we should do ro
value – SSP scientist’s blind faith in technology to produce positive outcomes ensures the worst totalitarian society
Fuyuki Kurasawa, “The Ties to bind: Techno-science, ethics, and democracy”, Philosophy and social criticism”, 30:2,
2004
This erosion of ethics and publicness creates a disturbing situation, according to which the sources… and according to
what and whose values?
The aff is a pre-req to yoru impact turns – only social change and public deliberation can ensure positive use of
science and technology
Christian Fuchs, “On the Topicality of Selected Aspects and Herbert Marcuse’s Work”, 2002, Online
When Marcuse says, that domination is a technology… machines as well as the role they play in life.
The nuclear complex has been obscured from our vision of everyday life – our aff is critical to establish linkages
between the imagined use of nuclear weapons, the false apocalypse of the nuclear scientists and the everyday
activities that determine how we understand these weapons.
Masco, “Nuclear Borderlands”, 4-5 and 23-25
The “unthinkability” of the nuclear age has right from the beginning, then, produced its rhetorical… American power in
the twenty-first century… Nuclear weapons, as “impassioned objects,” are not only the material… to a large extent,
through the bomb.
Add-Ons
NIF Add-On
NIF leads to pure fusion weapons causing quick and secret global prolif
Shimbun 2k
(Akira, The Daily Yomiuri, February 1, 2000, “Whither American
dominance? / 'Ultimate nuclear weapon' could be fallout of fusion
study”, LN)
"NIF experiments can … ultimate nuclear weapon.
Science Add-On
Orienting science around nuclear terror trades off with productive
environmental research that is key to solve extinction
Masco (Department of Anthropology, University of Chicago) 8
(Joseph, Bad Weather: On Planetary Crisis, Berkeley Environmental
Studies Colloquium, November 14)
Returning to the synthetic forest … of American power.
Kansas KQ
Round # 3 KY
vs Team: Wake MS
Judge: Justin Kirk
Plan Text
SSP – on caselist
1ac w/ cites
SSP – on caselist
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2AC Tricks, Add-Ons
Subcritical testing/NIF add on
AT: T Missions
We’re correct about arsenal
American Heritage ‘09
“Arsenal: a governmental establishment…of a state”
Etymoloy proves
Online etymology dictionary ‘01
Arsenal includes entire infrastructure
Wheeler ‘97
In, “Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World” p. Google books
“I use the phrases reassembling, reconstituting…more expansive”
WM mission
NPT Prep Committee 07
“Meanwhile, the United States has been working to reduce all aspects of
its nuclear weapons arsenal...misunderstood or overlooked”
Stewardship is the primary mission
Bohan ‘08
“The eight labs primary missions is running….will be announced”
Mission of the entire NNSA
US Fed news 9/21
“The Mesa platform is being developed…by 2018”
Our interp means Affs must eliminate a mission of the entire complex
Nuclear complex is 8 sites
IPT ‘08
“The nuclear Weapons Complex consists of eight…retired weapons”
Mission of all 8 sites
Young, Toblin, and Rose ‘08
“The national security policies…to special nuclear materials”
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NBs
a. Education – including SSP key to education
Taylor and Henry ‘08
“In conclusion, it is clear that public debate….their legacies”
b. Literature
c. Aff creativity
No limits explosion
Competing interps bad – our interp of reasonability
A) Must have a spec definition with intent to include aff within mass noun
B) Specified advocate for inclusion of aff within public policy debates
Taylor and Henry ‘08
“As a result, we judge official SSP rhetoric…the future of nuclear weapons”
Kansas KQ
Round # 1 Kentucky
vs Team: Wake BM
Judge: Tripp Rebrovick
Plan Text
SSP – on caselist
1ac w/ cites
SSP – on caselist
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons
None
AT: T Missions
We’re correct about arsenal
American Heritage ‘09
“Arsenal: a governmental establishment…of a state”
Etymoloy proves
Online etymology dictionary ‘01
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Arsenal includes entire infrastructure
Wheeler ‘97
In, “Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World” p. Google books
“I use the phrases reassembling, reconstituting…more expansive”
WM mission
NPT Prep Committee 07
“Meanwhile, the United States has been working to reduce all aspects of
its nuclear weapons arsenal...misunderstood or overlooked”
Stewardship is the primary mission
Bohan ‘08
“The eight labs primary missions is running….will be announced”
Mission of the entire NNSA
US Fed news 9/21
“The Mesa platform is being developed…by 2018”
Our interp means Affs must eliminate a mission of the entire complex
Nuclear complex is 8 sites
IPT ‘08
“The nuclear Weapons Complex consists of eight…retired weapons”
Mission of all 8 sites
Young, Toblin, and Rose ‘08
“The national security policies…to special nuclear materials”
AT: Deterrence—
1. Aff scenarios are made up justifications to continue superfluous experiments, no truth to them, impact is
aestheticization
2. N/U—nuclear primacy declining now
3. N/L—basic lab capabilities left post plan—solves maintenance of arsenal, that’s the 1NC Link
AT: Foucault (w/ Ethnography Link)
1. Perm—do both
2. Perm—do the alt
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3. K is the Aff—we stop the aestheticization of the weapons complex, causes public deliberation and individual
resistance
4. Ethnography key—analysis necessary to create genealogy of weapons, Aff solves that
5. Biopolitics not one way street—has good and bad forms
6. Democracy checks
AT: Russia Bilateral CP

Need to acquire cites
None Read Beyond Impact Defense
1AR Strategy Notes
1AR spent large amounts of time on T debate, focused in on what arsenal meant
2AR Strategy Notes

2NR went for T
Framed T was topical Affs should be what we do TO nuclear weapons, not what we do WITH them.
Kansas KQ
KY SSP Aff
The Stockpile Stewardship Program replaced the original testing mission of the nuclear arsenal with a never-ending
nuclear science fair. According to the DOE the SSP’s mission is to]
Support a focused, multifaceted program to increase the understanding of the enduring stockpile;
Predict, detect, and evaluate potential problems of the aging of the stockpile;
Refurbish and re-manufacture weapons and components, as required; and
Maintain the science and engineering institutions needed to support the nation’s nuclear deterrent, now and in the
future.
Yet it is more. The SSP was created in the days of uncertainty following Clinton’s defacto test ban, supposedly simply
to maintain the existing arsenal. It has created machines that abstract the destructive power of the bomb in science
projects that study the first microseconds of explosions. These tests are fun, exciting; they offer weapons scientists a
chance to ignore the already existing weapons and instead search for the mythic first-principles of the bomb’s power.
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The Stockpile Stewardship program is an attempt to run from the bodily terror produced by the bomb and convert it
into a purely useful form. Through endless simulation, the materials science of the bomb becomes an end in itself,
dedicated only to giving bored scientists something to do. The ends of the bomb are lost as the stockpile is converted
from a political institution to an object of aesthetic fascination.
Masco (Associate Professor of Anthropology, University of Chicago) 6
(Joseph, The Nuclear Borderlands: The Manhattan Project in Post-Cold War New Mexico, pg. 96-8)
The question SBSS … spectacle par excellence.
AND The mission of the stockpile is being converted from an political institution to an endless work of art – to examine
the scientific relation to the bomb is to interrogate the very basis for America’s relation to nuclear weapons
By separating the nuclear … the nuclear future.
AND This aestheticization makes war inevitable and public deliberation of the bomb impossible
Koepnick 99
(Lutz, WALTER BENJAMIN AND THE AESTHETICS OF POWER, pg. 3-5)
As it revisits Walter Benjamin’s …the aestheticization of politics. 5
Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate stockpile stewardship as a mission of the nuclear
arsenal.
The SBSS depoliticizes the development of nuclear technology – making technological progress appear an inevitable
part of the world rather than a series of everyday decisions
But if, as Stein argues, … preparing for the “unthinkable.”
AND This makes us numb ourselves to the joy of life, always hoping the next biggest bomb will be the last
(Joseph, The Nuclear Borderlands: The Manhattan Project in Post-Cold War New Mexico, pg. 11)
The historical process … of the bomb.
AND even if the materials science itself doesn’t depoliticize technology, any remaining vestige of the stewardship
mandate will be redeployed by DOE to close off nuclear policy from deliberation and ensure technocratic control
Taylor and Henry (Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Colorado-Boulder; Lecturer in the
Department of Communication and Journalism at the University of New Mexico) 8
(Bryan and Judith, Insisting on Persisting: The Nuclear Rhetoric of “Stockpile Stewardship”, Rhetoric & Public Affairs
Vol. 11, No. 2, MUSE)
Audiences attempting to … its rhetorical situation.
AND This spills over to all aspects of nuclear policy

A. Stewardship Prestige
Through these arguments, … U.S. nuclear weapons policy.”
AND B. Certification Process

Lichterman and Cabasso 2k
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(Andrew Lichterman is an attorney and Program Director with WSLF. Jacqueline Cabasso is the Executive Director
WESTERN STATES LEGAL FOUNDATION FAUSTIAN BARGAIN 2000:WHY ‘STOCKPILE STEWARDSHIP’ Is
FUNDAMENTALLY INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE PROCESS OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
http://www.wslfweb.org/docs/fb2000.pdf.)
The SS&M program …the laboratories.11
AND C. Knowledge Production – policy action can reverse it

McNamara 6
(Laura, Nuclear Legacies, Communication, Controversy, and the US Nuclear Weapons Complex, pg. 193
So, even without a return … of nuclear truth.

AND This depoliticization mandates escalatory war and makes peaceful resolution of conflicts impossible
Burke (Prof on Int’l Relations, University of New South Wales) 7
(Anthony, Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason, Theory and Event, 10:2, MUSE)
This closed circle of …ontologies in action.
The desire to preserve the knowledge of nuclear scientists though the SSP fails and leads to a resumption of nuclear
testing
Taylor and Kinsella 6
(Bryan C. and William J., Nuclear Legacies, Communication, Controversy, and the US Nuclear Weapons Complex, pg.
25-27)
In the following chapter, “TRUTH …as that regime evolves.
The nuclear complex has been obscured from our vision of everyday life – our Aff is critical to establish linkages
between the imagined use of nuclear weapons, the false apocalypse of the nuclear scientists and the everyday
activities that determine how we understand these weapons
The “unthinkability” … of American power in the twenty-first century.
Masco continues…
Nuclear weapons, as “impassioned … through the bomb.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention 1 – Aesthetics
The Stockpile Stewardship Program replaced the original testing mission of the nuclear arsenal with a never-ending
nuclear science fair. According to the DOE the SSP’s mission is to1
Support a focused, multifaceted program to increase the understanding of the enduring stockpile;
Predict, detect, and evaluate potential problems of the aging of the stockpile;
Refurbish and re-manufacture weapons and components, as required; and
Maintain the science and engineering institutions needed to support the nation’s nuclear deterrent, now and in the
future.
Yet it is more. The SSP was created in the days of uncertainty following Clinton’s defacto test ban, supposedly simply
to maintain the existing arsenal. It has created machines that abstract the destructive power of the bomb in science
projects that study the first microseconds of explosions. To observe a nuclear explosion now means to take a trip to
the Assessment Theater to view the Power Wall.2 Or go over to the National Ignition Facility to light up a pellet of
frozen hydrogen to create a miniature nuclear explosion for a fraction of a second.3These tests are fun, exciting; they
offer weapons scientists a chance to ignore the already existing weapons and instead search for the mythic first-
principles of the bomb’s power.
The Stockpile Stewardship program is an attempt to run from the bodily terror produced by the bomb and convert it
into a purely useful form. Through endless simulation, the materials science of the bomb becomes an end in itself,
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dedicated only to giving bored scientists something to do. The ends of the bomb are lost as the stockpile is converted
from a political institution to an object of aesthetic fascination.
The question SBSS ultimately poses, … spectacle par excellence.

The mission of the stockpile is being converted from an political institution to an endless work of art – to examine the
scientific relation to the bomb is to interrogate the very basis for America’s relation to nuclear weapons
By separating the nuclear future … view of the nuclear future.

To push the effects of the bomb into the aesthetic realm places them as objects outside of public deliberation making
war inevitable and denies the everyday pleasure of the body as individuals are forced to identify with the power that
holds them hostage
Koepnick 99
(Lutz, WALTER BENJAMIN AND THE AESTHETICS OF POWER, pg. 3-5)
As it revisits Walter Benjamin’s …aestheticization of politics. 5

Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate the Stockpile Stewardship Program.
Contention 2 – Depoliticization
The SBSS depoliticizes the development of nuclear technology – making technological progress appear an inevitable
part of the world rather than a series of everyday decisions
But if, as Stein argues, … preparing for the “unthinkable.”

In this view of technology we constantly hold out hope that the next, biggest bomb will be the last yet to compensate
for the ever increasing pace of technology we are forced us to destroy our senses and consequently all that makes life
worth living
(Joseph, The Nuclear Borderlands: The Manhattan Project in Post-Cold War New Mexico, pg. 11)
The historical process …the bomb.

Relating to technological development as an inevitable process makes extinction level disasters inevitable
James (Lecturer @ University of Cambridge) 7
(Ian, Paul Virilio, pg. 117-8)
It would seem then that … the technological accident.

And even if the materials science itself doesn’t depoliticize technology, any remaining vestige of the stewardship
mandate will be redeployed by DOE to close off nuclear policy from deliberation and ensure technocratic control
Audiences attempting to … its rhetorical situation.

This spillsover to all aspects of nuclear policy
Through these arguments,…U.S. nuclear weapons policy.”

This depoliticization mandates escalatory war and makes peaceful resolution of conflicts impossible
Burke (Prof on Int’l Relations, University of New South Wales) 7
(Anthony, Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason, Theory and Event, 10:2, MUSE)
This closed circle of … ontologies in action.
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Contention 3 – Everyday Life

Discussions about nuclear weapons are thus stuck gravitating between two extreme poles- on the one hand there are
the materials scientists, absentmindedly disconnected from the nuclear complex of which they are a part, participating
in the production of new technologies whose social function and impact they will never attempt to understand- on the
other there is the citizenry, constantly fed images of nuclear apocalypse, instilling fear within them in order to create
financial and political support for a burgeoning nuclear industry. And yet, despite the fact that political and social life
have been oriented obsessively towards the construction of the nuclear complex, the complex itself has disappeared
from everyday life, its effects mysteriously rendered invisible in the realm of nuclear policymaking. Our plan is critical to
establish the linkages between these two extremes, creating a vision of everyday life that can politicize the bomb
rather than allow it to become a banal feature of our everyday existence
The “unthinkability” of the … the twenty-first century.

Masco continues…
Nuclear weapons, as … through the bomb.

A banal relation to the bomb forces individuals to either numb themselves to the everyday threat or separate
themselves from the pleasure of their own lives
(Joseph, The Nuclear Borderlands: The Manhattan Project in Post-Cold War New Mexico, 32)
For radiation traverses space …experiences of everyday life.
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Mary Washington Saundes/Slattery (START) [TJ]
Cooperation Affirmative
Contention One: Conflict
The US and Russia are focusing on START now- but the treaty is only a cosmetic solution- this won’t revive collapsing
relations
Andryev, Political Commentator, 09
(Pavel, “Valdil Sees Security as way back to the future”, RIA Novosti, 09/09/09,
http://en.rian.ru/valdai_op/20090910/156085687.html, accessed: 09/10/09)
Security issues dominated the second day ….will not destabilize the status quo.
And START will fail- 3 reasons:

Negotiation positions – differences over what should be included in talks have gutted momentum – failure to reach an
agreement by December will solidify deadlock
Washington Post, 9/21/9
(Mary Beth Sheridan and Philip P. Pan "Obama Missile Decision May Smooth U.S.-Russia Arms Talks"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/20/AR2009092002376_pf.html [accessed 9/23/9])
But after six months of negotiations, …. "These are existential issues."
Second- Transparency – current perception of Russian violations in status quo

Comparative Strategy Editor-In-Chief, 6/24/2009
[Keith, "U.S. RUSSIA NUCLEAR TALKS," Congressional Testimony, Lexis, access 9/13]
The same caveat is appropriate …... it constitutes a step toward nuclear zero.
Third - Nuclear Security- START is a cold war relic that focuses on verification measures-not expanding cooperative
threat reductions
Cooper, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University Senior Research
Fellow, 7-30-9
[David A. "Aligning disarmament to nuclear dangers: off to a hasty START?; Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty", Lexis,
accessed: 9-2-9]
Finally, loose nuke dangers extend ….., post-START offers little, if any, remediation for nuclear security dangers.
START’s failure exacerbates tensions- collapsing bilateral relations- ensures US leadership erosion and makes
nuclear conflict escalation and global proliferation unavoidable
Blank, Soviet Bloc Strategic Studies Institute Expert, 2009
[Dr. Stephen J, “RUSSIA AND ARMS CONTROL: ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION?”, http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/, Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the
Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base, editor of Imperial Decline: Russia's
Changing Position in Asia, coeditor of Soviet Military and the Future, author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin's
Commissariat of Nationalities, 1917-1924.]
Even if one is ….. missile if not nuclear proliferation.77
And- this arms control failure locks Russia and the US into a relationship that presupposes conflict- manifesting the
“mutual hostage relationship”-guarantees inevitable future relations collapse and enables Russian opportunism
ADMINISTRATION?”, http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/, Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the
Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base, editor of Imperial Decline: Russia's
Changing Position in Asia, coeditor of Soviet Military and the Future, author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin's
Commissariat of Nationalities, 1917-1924.]
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The current discord on arms … in world affairs.
This relationship is capable of producing conflict at any moment

ADMINISTRATION?”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=908, Associate Professor
of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base, editor of
Imperial Decline: Russia's Changing Position in Asia, coeditor of Soviet Military and the Future, author of The Sorcerer
as Apprentice: Stalin's Commissariat of Nationalities, 1917-1924.]
Similarly, arguing against the …. interstate relations at any moment.55
This is the only scenario for extinction

Bostrom, Oxford philosophy faculty, 2
[Nick, “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Published in the Journal of
Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html]
A much greater … thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
Contention Two: Cooperation
The perverse nature of treaties assumes adversarial relations- thwarting efforts toward major arms reduction- only
contracts by convention engenders mutual trust and cooperation- solves global instability, inevitable arms race and
global cooperation
Hardin, U. Chicago Political Science Professor, Public Policy Studies Committee Chairman, Ethics Journal Editor,
1984 [Russell, "Contracts, Promises, and Arms Control," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, October, 40.8]
But treaties are ultimately not sufficient….—to survive they must also be partners.
The outcome of engagement is determined by the assumptions of states involved. Legally binding conditioning
assumes non-cooperation, sustaining a conflictual relationship
Wendt, University of Chicago associate professor, 99
[Alexander, former professor at Yale and Dartmouth, Social Theory of International Politics, 368-369]
Power relations play a crucial …., and the kind of anarchy they will make.
The creation of a conflictual relationship premised on non-cooperation guarantees war and sustains modes of thinking
that make violence and extinction inevitable
Bagshaw, South Australia U. Conflict Management Research Group Director, 2001
[Dale, "Challenging discourses on violence" http://www.conferences.unimelb.edu.au/flagship/Abstracts/Bagshaw.pdf]
All human beings are implicated … - a phenomena which is also evident in the current global crisis involving Iraq.
Contention Three: Relations
Now is key- post-START negotiations are critical to restore collapsing US-Russian relations- arms cooperation this
prevents cascading proliferation and global instability.
ADMINISTRATION?”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=908, Associate Professor
of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base, editor of
Imperial Decline: Russia's Changing Position in Asia, coeditor of Soviet Military and the Future, author of The Sorcerer
as Apprentice: Stalin's Commissariat of Nationalities, 1917-1924., accessed: 9-7-9]
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Even before the Russian invasion of Georgia … than was the 2005 session.
The ultimate impact of proliferation is extinction

Victor A. Utgoff, Deputy Dir – Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division, Institute for Defense Analysis, Proliferation,
Missile Defence and American Ambitions, Survival, Vol. 44, No. 2, 2002, p. 87-90
Many readers are … cities or even whole nations.
Additionally, current proliferation trends dramatically increase the nuclear terrorism threat
That reality has yet to sink ….. a nuclear weapon will be used greater.
Nuclear terrorism leads to global nuclear war

Speice, JD Candidate, February 2006
[Patrick, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, Lexis]
The potential consequences of the …. to the use of nuclear weapons.
US unilateral arms reduction elicits Russian reciprocity- this transforms the logic of the nuclear bilateral relationship-
independently solves non-proliferation credibility
Sokolsky, Strategic Forum, Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University, February 2001
[Richard D. Sokolsky, "Renovating U.S. Strategic Arms Control Policy",
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF178/sf178.html, accessed: 9-13-9]
None of the features of the Cold War …. to gain unilateral military advantages.
This credibility will spillover to non-proliferation cooperation – now is key

Curtis, Nuclear Threat Initiative President, COO, Former Energy Dept. Under Secretary and Deputy Secretary, Former
United Nations Foundation Executive Vice President, November 2007
[Charles, "Reducing the Global Nuclear Danger: International Cooperation-the Indispensable Security Imperative,"
http://nti.org/c_press/speech_curtis_reducing1107.pdf, access 9/2]
If the United States cannot defend ….underscore America’s bona fides.
International non-proliferation cooperation solves prolif and terrorism

Choubey, Carnegie Endowment Nonproliferation Program Deputy Director, October 2008
[Deepti, "Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=22229]
Critics of the … burnish its own reputation.
Thus the plan: The United States federal Government should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear weapons
arsenal to levels commensurate with ratification provisions of the START II treaty
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Pittsburgh Kurr/Solis (Asteroids) [Stiffy]
Pittsburgh KS
West Point
Text: The Executive Branch of the United States federal government should use the nuclear weapons of the United
States federal government for deflection of near-Earth objects only as a means of last resort.
Richmond
Text: The United States federal government should use its nuclear weapons for deflection of near-Earth objects only
as a means of last resort.
The US president must act unilaterally without consulting any other nation or international institution in order to solve
Dinerman 09 (Taylor, journalist for the Space Review “The new politics of planetary defense,” The Space Review, 7-
20, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1418/1)
While the US ... for a disaster
Contention 4: No War
Four reasons war is obsolete
Vayrynen 06 - President of the Academy of Finland, Professor of Political Science at University of Notre Dame (Raimo,
The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates, pg 6-7)
The commercial peace ...mass consumer culture.’
Nuclear war would not cause extinction

Nyquist 99 WorldNetDaily contributing editor and author of ‘Origins of the Fourth World War,’ May 20, 1999, (J.R.,
Antipas, “Is Nuclear War Survivable?” http://www.antipas.org/news/world/nuclear_war.html)
I patiently reply ... disastrous social disorganization."
Clarion
Text: The United States federal government should adopt a policy of using its nuclear weapons arsenal as a means of
last resort for deflection of near-Earth objects.
GSU Aff Disclosure (Only Pitt K was at GSU)

Contention 1: Deep Impact
Detection of new asteroids, historical records and a move away from crater counting all indicate the risk of asteroids is
high.
Easterbrook 08, contributing editor of The Atlantic and The New Republic, fellow at the Brookings Institution <Gregg,
June, The Sky Is Falling, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/asteroids/3 >
These standard assumptions—... would be the issue.
Detection is improving—we’ll discover thousands of potentially hazardous NEOs

Jones 08 - American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (Thomas, “Asteroid deflection: Planning for the
inevitable,” Aerospace America, October, lexis)
AS NASA's Spaceguard ... once every 10 years.
Asteroid strikes will usher in a host of impacts

Marusek 07, Nuclear Physicist & Engineer <James, Comet and Asteroid Threat Impact Analysis
http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/2007papers/P4-3--Marusek-Paper.pdf>
A comet or asteroid ... starvation and plagues.
Probability and magnitude are at 100 percent—timeframe is irrelevant

Kunich 97 Lt. Colonel USAF, B.S., M.S., University of Illinois; J.D., Harvard Law School; LL.M., George Washington
University School of Law, Staff Judge Advocate 50th Space Wing, Falcon Air Force Base (John, , 41 Air Force L. Rev.
119, lexis)
Consequently, it is easy ... United States Air Force.
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Contention 2: Michael Bay was wrong about nukes
The US takes the lead in NEO defense—superiority of US nuclear weapons policy, space policy, and customs
governing missile defense mean the world will pressure to the US to shoot at an incoming NEO
Koplow 05 (Justin, JD Candidate Georgetown Univ. Law Center, 17 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 273, lexis)
What the United States ... deals and understandings. 132
NASA’s Report codifies current US policy towards NEO objects.

Schweickart and Graham 08, former astronaut head of B612 Foundation and special representative of the president
for arms control in the 1990s, < Thomas and Russell, NASA's Flimsy Argument for Nuclear Weapons Scientific
American Magazine, NASA's Flimsy Argument for Nuclear Weapons http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?
id=nasas-flimsy-argument-for-nuclear-weapons>
On January 4, 2007, ... such a procedure.
Policy is to use nuclear weapons against any asteroid threatening earth

Chapman 06 - Senior Scientist, Southwest Research Institute Dept. of Space Studies, Boulder CO and Member of the
Board, B612 Foundation <Clark, Critique of "2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report"
Published 28 Dec. 2006 by NASA Hq. Program Analysis & Evaluation Office,
http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-CritChap.doc>
Furthermore, the Report ... paragraph of pg. 61.].)
The NASA document is seriously flawed

New Scientist, 07 <Jeff, Hecht, NASA REPORT BIASED NASA analysis of asteroid risk deeply flawed, critics say, May
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11901-nasa-analysis-of-asteroid-risk-deeply-flawed-critics-say.html>
A NASA working ... Schweickart about their criticisms.
Nukes aren’t controllable and ensure return route

Schweickart and Graham 08, former astronaut who flew on Apollo 9, heads the B612 Foundation, & Thomas, special
representative of the president for arms control in the 1990s and now chairs Thorium Power Ltd. < Thomas and
Russell, NASA's Flimsy Argument for Nuclear Weapons Scientific American Magazine, NASA's Flimsy Argument for
Nuclear Weapons http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=nasas-flimsy-argument-for-nuclear-weapons>
This analysis is seriously flawed. ..., in Nature; November 10, 2005].
Nukes don’t work on porous asteroids

NY Times 02 <Armageddon Can Wait: Stopping Killer Asteroids By HENRY FOUNTAIN Published: Tuesday,
November 19, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/science/space/19ASTE.html>
What makes some of these ... or not," he added.
Most asteroids are porous

Housen and Holsapple 03 - Physical Sciences, MS 2T-50, The Boeing Company and Department of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, 352400, University of Washington <Kevin and Keith, Impact cratering on porous asteroids, Icarus 163
(2003) 102–119>
Although asteroids have long ... estimated porosity of _50% (Veverka et al., 1999; Britt et al., 2002).
Detonating away from the asteroid is too small causing absorption

Fountain 02 <Henry, New York Times correspondent, Armageddon Can Wait: Stopping Killer Asteroids, November 19,
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/science/space/19ASTE.html>
But it is becoming clear that ... into a close call.
Nuclear explosions are imprecise and cause fragmentation making the impact worse
Lu 04 - President, B612 Foundation -(Statement of Dr. Ed Lu, “Near-Earth Objects,” testimony before the Committee
on Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, Apr.7 CQ,
lexis)
Why does the asteroid ... the purposes of resource utilization.
Fragmentation causes oxygen depletion and extinction

Verschurr 96, adjunct professor of physics for the U of Memphis (Gerrit, , Impact: The Threat of Asteroids and Comets,
pg. 40)
Did consider are potential ... desolate and barren rock.
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Even if the asteroid is turned to dust the results could be catastrophic

Nemchinov et al 08, Institute for Dynamics of Geospheres, Russian Academy of Sciences <WAN NEMCHINOV,
VALERY SHUVALOV AND VLADIMIR SVETSOV, MAIN FACTORS OF HAZARDS DUE TO COMETS AND
ASTEROIDS, in Catastrophic Events Caused by Cosmic Objects, pg 58-59>
If the NEO cannot ... for small cosmic objects.
Nuclear weapons undermine any other form of deflection

Chapman 03, scientist at the Southwest Research Institute's Department of Space Studies <Great Impact Debates,
Collision Course for Earth 3/03 http://www.astrobio.net/index.php?option=com_debate&task=detail&id=389 >
Clark Chapman: The advantage ... is a very bad idea.
Will not have necessary info and can’t verify success

Schweickart 04 - Chairman of the Board of the B612, Foundation Former astronaut, Executive Vice President of CTA
Commercial Systems, Inc. and Director of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Systems and research, and scientist at the
Experimental Astronomy Laboratory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) <Russell, Asteroid Deflection;
Hopes and Fears Presented at the World Federation of Scientists Workshop on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Sicily,
August 2004 http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/Asteroid_Deflection.doc>
The nuclear explosive options ... may well be impossible.
Requires lots of fuel and precision

Schweickart 04 - Chairman of the Board of the B612, Foundation Former astronaut, Executive Vice President of CTA
Commercial Systems, Inc. and Director of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Systems and research, and scientist at the
Experimental Astronomy Laboratory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) <Russell, Asteroid Deflection;
Hopes and Fears Presented at the World Federation of Scientists Workshop on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Sicily,
August 2004 http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/Asteroid_Deflection.doc>
The more favored nuclear ... about the nuclear options.
Resolved: The United States Federal Government should changes its policy so that nuclear weapons are only used to
deflect near Earth objects as a last resort.
Contention 3: The Next Generation
Conventional Technology can deflect 98% of NEOs a last resort policy makes the most sense and sends the signal
that ensures alternatives to nuclear weapons continue to be developed.
Boyle 07 - Covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for
MSNBC.com. He is a winner of the AAAS Science Journalism Award, the NASW Science-in-Society Award, 07 < Alan
DUELING OVER ASTEROIDS Posted: Wednesday, March 21,
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/03/21/97410.aspx>
That's why he's taking the ... to be doing that research.
Gravity tractor solves best—simplest and most feasible option

Merali 05 (Zeeya, phd in physics, November 12, “Don’t nuke asteroids - tow them”, New Scientist, lexis)
WHEN it comes to ... vehicle, propelled by nuclear fission.
Kinetic Impactors are ready and can solve

Koenig and Chyba 07 - SpaceDev Inc and Department of Astrophysical Sciences and Program on Science and Global
Security, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs < Jesse D. and Christopher F. Impact Deflection
of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids Using Current Launch Vehicles,
http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/2007papers/S2-3--Koenig-Paper.pdf>
Nuclear explosions, and ... and fastest to effect.
They work for big asteroids and short time as well

Koenig and Chyba 07 - SpaceDev Inc and Department of Astrophysical Sciences and Program on Science and Global
Security, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs < Jesse D. and Christopher F. Impact Deflection
of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids Using Current Launch Vehicles,
http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/2007papers/S2-3--Koenig-Paper.pdf>
Assuming lead time of two ... of 1 km rock-like PHAs.
Kinetic Impacts are proven effective
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International Academy of Astronautics Study Group, 09 < January 2009 http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific

%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf>
Kinetic impact is a practical ... that resulted from the heat of impact.
Most NEOs can be deflected by conventional means, only a few will require nuclear weapons
International Academy of Astronautics Study Group, 09 < January 2009 http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific
%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf>
A number of sufficiently ... their use only in this context
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Puget Sound Gent/Johnson-Freyd (MD-Hawaii) [Rohan]
In the 1800s, Westerners arrived in Hawaii. In the tide of immigration that followed, settlers from Europe and the US
undermined Native cultures and ultimately ousted the Hawaiian queen by military coup. Since then, the US military has
used Hawaii as a base for hegemonic dominance and colonialism at the expense of indigenous autonomy.
Katy Rose, “Space Invaders: Star Wars in Hawaii,” DMZ Hawaii, April 17, 2009,
http://www.space4peace.org/actions/gnconf_09/space%20invaders%20in%20hawaii.htm
Today, the military has a devastating stranglehold on Hawaii that causes rampant environmental destruction, militarism
and violence directed against indigenous peoples. Hawaiian missile defense is the vital lynchpin of this oppressive
system.
And, current US doctrine expressly integrates missile defense into the offensive strike and deterrent missions of the
nuclear weapons arsenal.
Carl Osgood, “Missile Defense: Cheney’s Nuclear War Doctrine,” Executive Intelligence Review, June 29, 2007,
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3426abm_cheney.html
The militarization of Hawaiian culture and civilization is both visible and invisible. This paradox of “hiding in plain sight”
naturalizes a supposedly organized social order built upon the military and dismisses alternative histories and politics
as disorderly.
Kathy E. Ferguson and Phyllis Turnbull, Professor of Women’s Studies and Political Science @ University of Hawaii
and Associate Professor of Political Science @ University of Hawaii, Oh, Say Can You See? The Semiotics of the
Military in Hawaii, 1998
And, allowing the militarization of the social order to remain hidden and dismissive of disorderly histories and politics
cedes control over memory to the State and creates an “official” narrative that humiliates and isolates particular social
groups. Only critical history and remembering can create restorative politics.
Peter A. Petrakis, Associate Prof. of Political Science @ SE Louisiana University, Eric Voegelin and Paul Ricoeur on
Memory and History, 2006
Further, repressing feelings of hostility caused by the whitewashing of history ultimately resurface as scapegoating,
victimization, genocide and nuclear war.
Dominick LaCapra, Representing the Holocaust, 1994
Second, Hawaii has become the locus of response to the so-called North Korean threat. Specifically, on June 19,
2009, in response to a North Korean missile launch and nuclear test, the United States deployed a missile defense
system in Hawaii. The Obama administration claimed to be protecting Hawaii from inevitable North Korean attack.
Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124535285705228571.html
And, deployment of missile defense in Hawaii is part of a problem-solution mindset that demonizes North Korea and
ignores the history of US arms trade and support for oppressive regimes. Their identification of the North Korean threat
is nothing but a means of sustaining the military industrial complex by aspiring for “security” from non-existent threats
and manufactured crises.
Kurt Nimmo, “North Korean Missile Threat,” July 3, 2009, http://www.infowars.com/north-korean-missile-threat-made-
in-the-usa/
Reject the epistemologically and ontologically flawed lens of security – accepting elite-defined security threats without
questioning results in Otherization and self-fulfilling prophecies such as a nuclear North Korea.
Prerna Lal, Post-Graduate Student in International Relations, Deconstructing the National Security State, No Date
Given, http://prernalal.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/css-deconstructing-the-nat-sec-state.pdf
Further, their objective “facts” relating to North Korea aren’t true. Their evidence is tainted by a racist metanarrative
that both relies on race to justify persecution of North Korea and ignores race in the larger scheme of international
relations.
Prerna Lal, Post-Graduate Student in International Relations, “North Korea is Not a Threat: Unveiling Hegemonic
Discourses,” April 5, 2009, http://prernalal.com/2009/04/05/north-korea-is-not-a-threat-unveiling-hegemonic-
discourses/
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And, international relations is premised on a strategy of silence on the issue of race. This silence causes genocide,
enslavement and the disappearance of the Other from view. Endorse our critical history as a means of forgetting IR.
Sankaran Krishna, Prof. of Political Science @ U. of Hawaii, “Race, Amnesia, and the Education of International
Relations,” Alternatives, Volume 26, 2001, 406-7
Third, “rogue” regimes such as North Korea are a created and sustained through systems of surveillance such as
those used in missile defense. Surveillance is the ultimate tool to divide the rational “civilized” state from the irrational
“rogue.” This new spin on an old tale justifies militarism and global intervention.
Bruce Cumings, Prof. of History @ U. of Chicago, Parallax Visions, 1999
And, militarism causes extinction and makes war inevitable.

Mike Pesa, Chief Editor, “THE STUDENT ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION COALITION (SEAC) WINTER NATIONAL
CONVERGENCE,” Threshold, November 2004, http://www.seac.org/threshold-backup/nov04.pdf
Thus, the plan.
The United States federal government should dismantle all missile defense systems in Hawaii. We’ll clarify.
Our critical history uncovers social orders of militarism in Hawaii and fosters broader examinations of American
narratives of war and the state. Only the affirmative can open space for counterhegemonic stories, recounting of
memories and explorations of silence.
Kathy E. Ferguson and Phyllis Turnbull, Professor of Women’s Studies and Political Science @ University of Hawaii
and Associate Professor of Political Science @ University of Hawaii, Oh, Say Can You See? The Semiotics of the
Military in Hawaii, 1998
Finally, missile defense is a vital hook for militarism in Hawaii. Removing missile defense and questioning our
understandings of “security” are the first steps in demilitarization and creating an ethic of respect for indigenous
peoples.
Gonzaga 2AC T Cards
Counter interpretation: “nuclear weapons arsenal” means the triad and includes missile defense.
Mark Bromley, David Grahame and Christine Kucia, “Bunker Busters,” British American Security Information Council,
July 2002, http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2002BB.pdf
A “New Triad” AND system based on AEGIS ships.4
We meet- “roles” includes 10 topical affs, missile defense is one of them.

Union of Concerned Scientists, “Ten Steps the Next President Should Take to Transform US Nuclear Weapons
Policy,” February 2008,
To prevent more nations—and AND enhance both national and international security.
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**NO FIRST USE**

Arizona State Ko/Mushtaq (NFU) [DCH]
Plan Text: The United States federal government should adopt a policy of No First Use.
Obama has committed to reducing the size and role of our nuclear arsenal through the NPT, disarmament, START,
CTBT, and the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty
Burk 8/12 [Susan F. Burk, Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation, Geneva Center for
Security Policy, Geneva, Switzerland, “Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: A Blueprint for Progress”,
August 12, 2009]
On April 5 of this year in Prague, President Obama AND On April 5 of this year in Prague, President Obama
Contention (_): China
Lack of an NFU policy fuels Chinese fears of U.S. intentions and leads to modernization
Pyon 7 (Junbeom, Fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, Jul, http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?
serviceID=RESSpecNet&fileid=EECB663A-4C80-4EA6-CC05-5C614B0070B3&lng=en)
Since the U.S. does not have a no first use policy AND that the U.S. adopt a no first use policy against China.
US first-use posture is the driving force behind the PLA’s push for modernization and rollback of China’s NFU policy
NTI 3 (Nuclear Threat Initiative, Jun 26, “No-First-Use (NFU),” http://nuclearthreatinitiative.org/db/china/nfuorg.htm)
China remains publicly committed to a policy of no-first-use AND Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies,
2003, forthcoming.]
Chinese modernization creates an overly aggressive PLA which collapses loyalty to the CCP and triggers regime
collapse
Krawitz 3 (Howard, research fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies, Dec, “Modernizing China’s Military: A
High-Stakes Gamble?”, Strategic Forum, No. 204)
To understand the dilemma faced by the CCP AND possibilities for this sort of worst-case scenario.
Military modernization creates irresolvable tensions in China, which collapses the CCP and destabilizes all of Asia
High-Stakes Gamble?”, Strategic Forum, No. 204)
China is committed to modernizing almost every AND outright anarchy, could threaten all of Asia.
The CCP won’t go down without a fight – regime collapse causes them to initiate a global nuclear war in a last ditch
effort to maintain control
Epoch Times 5 [Aug 3, http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-3/30975.html]
Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” AND people hostage and gamble with their lives.
But it only gets worse from there – Chinese modernization, PLA control, and rollback of China’s NFU policy snowball
destroying US china relations making an arms race inevitable and crisis management impossible resulting in a
preemptive or accidental nuclear war
Zhenqiang 5 [Pan, Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, retired Major General of
the People’s Liberation Army, Autumn, “China Insistence on No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons,”
http://www.irchina.org/en/news/view.asp?id=403]
Second, if the NFU rationale is to be changed AND these are in the best interest of China.
Continued Chinese nuclear modernization makes war with the U.S. inevitable
Gaffney 5 (Frank, columnist for The Washington Times and author, Nov 15, “Get Real About China,”
http://www.en8848.com.cn/yingyu/90/6290-60956.html)
In that happens, history may record AND clearly designed to disrupt American systems."
US-China war goes nuclear culminating in extinction

Straits Times 2k [Jun 25, LEXIS]
THE high-intensity scenario postulates AND China puts sovereignty above everything else.
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Even if China doesn’t explicitly roll back their no-first-use policy – United States first use ensures a nuclear exchange
Zhang 8 (Hui, March, Research Associate at Harvard University, “Chinese Perspectives On Space Weapons,”
http://www.wsichina.org/attach/CS2_3.pdf)
Some Chinese analysts argue that AND outside of the United States alliance system
A unilateral declaration of no first use would ease tensions and prevent nuclear exchange
Berry 9 [Ken, ICNND Research Coordinator “DRAFT TREATY ON NON-FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS”
International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, June 2009,
http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Berry_No_First_Use_Treaty.pdf)
As noted in the Introduction AND all they would be prepared to consider.
Contention (_): India
The United States policy of first-use is directly modeled by the Indian government and will result in Indian
modernization and Indo-Pak conflict
Sagan 9 (Scott, Professor of Political Science and co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and
Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use,” Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3 June 2009 , pages 163 – 182, InformaWorld)
US officials have long claimed AND India in the opposite direction.
India and Pakistan will model US first strike posture making pre-emption and conflict escalation inevitable
Daalder 2 (Ivo, US Representative to NATO, “Policy Implications of the Bush Doctrine on Preemption,” Council on
Foreign Relations, November 16, http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=5251)
The doctrine of preemption is AND understanding of precisely this distinction
Extinction
Fai 4 [Nabi, Staff, Islamic Horizons, January 2004 - February, 2004; LEXIS]
The Kashmir dispute involves AND nuclear controls or disarmament.
Contention (_): Escalation
A terrorist WMD attack is inevitable by 2013 – biological weapons are the most likely scenario
Cohen and Talent 8 [Alex Cohen and Jim Talent, vice chair of The Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass
Destruction, Proliferation, and Terrorism, former senator from Missouri, Report: WMD Attack Inevitable Before 2013,
NPR, transcript, December 2, 2008 http://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=97693884]
Sometime during the next five years AND using these kinds of methods.
Status quo first use policy is a racist ideology of violence – a terrorist attack with WMDs would result is full-scale
nuclear destruction of the Middle East
Schell 1 (Jonathan, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, The Nation)
Bush made the concern official AND target in a dozen Muslim countries."
Calculated ambiguity creates a commitment trap that forces nuclear retaliation after CBW attack
Huntley 6 [Wade L. Huntley, Director of the Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research at the Liu
Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia, 2006, Threats all the way down]
Beneath the question of whether AND avoid reputation costs in future conflicts.
WMD attack leads to US nuclear retaliation leading to global nuclear war and extinction
Hirsh 9 [Jorge Hirsh, professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. 11/1/05, “The Real Reason for
Nuking Iran, Why a nuclear attack is on the neocon agenda” http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=7861]
The real reason for nuking Iran AND including the United States of America.
NFU solves preventative attacks and backlash against biological attacks

Sagan 9 (Scott D., Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use”, Survival, vol. 51 no. 3, June–July 2009, pp. 171-
172)
This is a useful conceptual innovation AND mass destruction against non-combatants.
Contention (_): Political Discourse
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Critics must understand empirical functions to effectively criticize repressive institutions – debate is key.
McClean, prof. of law at U of Sheffield, ’01 (David E., “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope,”
http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/ 2001%20Conference/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm)
Leftist American culture critics might AND for the so-called "managerial class."
Consequentialist framework is necessary to fulfilling our ethical responsibilities- moral absolutism is self-contradictory.
Nye 1986 (Joseph, Prof. of government at Harvard, Nuclear Ethics, pg. 18-19)
The significance and the limits AND proof in the nuclear age than ever before.
Their framework makes extinction inevitable- viewing survival as the first priority before all is key.
Schell, 1982 (Jonathan, prof. at Wesleyan U, Fate of the Earth, pg. 129-30)
For the generations that now have AND interest of the one who commits it.
Debate is key to reinvigoration – the critique is only another form of domination.

Coverstone, academic dean at montgomery bell, ’95 (alan, “an inward glance: a response to mitchell's outward activist
turn,” online)
As we enter the twenty-first century AND discourse to our own level of deliberation.
Calculation is inevitable – reinterpretation is key.

Derrida, prof. of social studies at Ecole des Hautes Etudes, ’92 (Jacques, “In Deconstruction and the Possibility of
Justice,” p. 28-9)
That justice exceeds law and calculation AND remain quite obscure, if not quite traditional).
The critique fails to create social transformation – alignment with politics is key.
Banash, asst. prof. of english Western Illinois U, ’02 (David, “Activist Desire, Cultural Criticism, and the Situationist
International,” http://www. reconstruction.ws/021/Activist.htm)
The ethos that defines the situationists seems AND erosion of an efficacious political left.
Death outweighs all their impacts – it’s the only impact you can’t recover from
Zygmunt Bauman, University Of Leeds Professor Emeritus Of Sociology, Life In Fragments: Essays In Postmodern
Morality, 95, p. 66-71.
The being for is like living towards AND dissolves straightaway into potentialities'.
Contention (___): Solvency
Declaring a No First Use policy boosts US credibility and creates a credible firewall between nuclear and conventional
war that trickles down and shifts our entire strategic decision-making paradigm to one that excludes the use of nuclear
weapons
Stanley Foundation 8 (“THE STANLEY FOUNDATION: A NEW LOOK AT NO FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS,”
MaximsNews Network, August 22,
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm)
Throughout the Cold War, the United States AND telling your children not to smoke.”
A credible nuclear firewall makes nuclear war impossible

Schwartz&Derber 91 (Schwartz, William A., and Charles Derber, et al The Nuclear Seduction: Why the Arms Race
Doesn't Matter--And What Does. Berkeley: University of California Press, c1990.
http://ark.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft1n39n7wg/)
Before examining whether the arms race AND the risk of global annihilation would skyrocket.
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Augustana Fischer/Heidtke (NFU) [DCH]
(JV) Augustana FH Aff

The Executive Branch of the United States federal government should substantially reduce the role of the Unites
States’ nuclear arsenal through a declaratory policy of no first use.
Modernization
Preservation of U.S. first strike drives Chinese to modernization.
FAS 09 (April 2009, “Ending Nuclear Counterforce,” Federation of American Scientists)
Even so, if the benefits . . . through a first strike.
Now is the brink – Australia proves.

Reuters 09 (May 6, 2009 “China Military is US-focused”)
China’s buildup of sea and air . . . the Western Pacific.
Chinese modernization creates aggressive PLA, collapse loyalty to CCP and triggers regime collapse.
Krawitz 03 (Howard, “Modernizing China’s Military: A High-Stakes Battle,” Strategic Forum N. 204)
To understand the dilemma . . . of worst-case scenario.
! = global nuke war.

Epoch Times 05 (August 3, 2005, http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-3/30975.html)
Since the Party’s life . . . with their lives.
Declaration of NFU solves Chinese modernization.

Arbatov 08 (Alexei, “No-first Use as a way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons”)
In this context a real problem . . . the USA and China.
U.S first use is modeled by India and will result in Indian proliferation and Indian-Pak conflict.
Sagan 09 (Scott, “The Case for No First Use,” Survival, Vol. 51, Issue 3, pg. 163-182, June 3, 2009)
US officials have long claimed . . . in the opposite direction.
Indo-Pak conflict threatens all life.

Fai 04 (Nabi, Islamic Horizons)
The Kashmir dispute . . . nuclear controls or disarmament.
US declaration of NFU prevents Indian backsliding.

Berry 09 (Ken, “DRAFT TREATY ON NON-FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” June 2009)
While some nuclear-armed states . . . currently remain unclear.
Nuclear first strike against North Korea is likely.

Turner 09 (Hal, 5/29/2009, http://forum.pakistanidefense.com/lofiversion/index.php/t82918.html)
Worst development since . . . whatever resistance remains.
US first use ensures nuclear exchange with China.

Zhang 08 (Hui, “Chinese Perspectives on Space Weapons”)
Some Chinese analysts . . . Unites States alliance system.
! = extinction.
Straits Times 2000 (LEXIS)
The high-intensity scenario . . . above everything else.
NFU key to firewall.

Stanley Foundation 08 (August 22, 2008, “A NEW LOOK AT NO FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS”)
Throughout the Cold War . . . children not to smoke.
Nuclear firewall solves every instance of nuclear war.

Schwartz & Derber 91 (William A. and Charles, “The Nuclear Seduction: Why the Arms Race Doesn’t Matter – And
What Does”)
Before examining whether . . . annihilation would skyrocket.
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California Bowen/Polin (NFU) [DCH]
AT: NPR CP
Can’t solve prolif – NNWS don’t perceive as binding
Du Preez 2 “The Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime”
Developments at the October 2002 First Main Committee…abstained from supporting it.
Plan dictates review:

US NFU now immediately shifts towards a liberal NPR
Ambinder 9-3 “More Nukes?”
On September 24, Obama will address the United Nations and chair…submit early next year.
Turn – backing down encourages the military to run over Obama’s agenda
New Mexico Independent 11-13-8 “Productive Obama-military relationship possible”
During Clinton’s transition from candidate to president…chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time.
Process is corrupt and will be dominated by defense contractors and hawks

Cirincione 9 “The Nuclear Posture Landmine”
So the nuclear bureaucracy – that is, the nuclear laboratories…from that kind of process.
Review process will create exceptions

Nolan 99 The Elusive Consensus p. 8
In both of the case studies, the clash of views among midlevel officials…parallel to the cases under consideration here.
Congress won’t adopt

Cirincione 9 Nuclear Posture Landmine
So ideally it would come straight…President wanted it to.
Leaks
Nolan 99 Elusive Consensus 54-55
The letter, intendent to prevent Carter…China and other nations.
AT: Treaty CP
China says no – wants ambiguity
Towmey 9 “Chinese-U.S. Strategic Affairs: Dangerous Dynamism”
There is no simple solution for this set…might be fomented.
CP looks like cherry picking obligations – collapses NPT

Du Preez 5 “Previewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Conference”
The continued vitality and efficacy of the NPT…but in particular for the United States.
Goal post shifting – plan asks for concessions from NNWS – backlash
Choubey 8 “Are new nuclear bargains attainable?”
Policy makers have returned to the debate over whether…conditions for future bargains.
CP strengthens Iran hardliners

Sagan 9 Survival, Case for NFU
A US no-first-use declaration would also enhance…claim it faces nuclear threats.
Moderate Iranian foreign policy accesses all your scenarios – prevents terrorism
Copley 6 “Iran’s Delicate year of Living Dangerously”
Iran is the dynamic element in the current global…basin in the 21st century.
Kentucky - Octos - AFF vs Wake MS
Israel Opacity
ending opacity massively strengthens Israeli deterrence, preventing attack.
Table of Contents
Harvard Round 5
Aff vs. MSU LW
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AT: NPR CP
AT: Treaty CP
Kentucky - Octos - AFF vs Wake MS
Israel Opacity
2AC CBW CP
SLBMs addons
A2 Declatory CP
A2: Politics - Healthcare
A2: START DA
A2: Bioweapons
A2: CMR
A2: Allied Prolif
At consult japan
Gonzaga
Aff v. WhitmanFrMa
Beres, 2001, israel insider, google

"What is required now, immediately" "appropriately implemented as quickly as possible."
Israel opacity prevents C3 development and causes accidental escalation in crisis
Steinberg, 1986, security or armageddon, p. 39-40
Critics of Israeli nuclear ambiguity asl note AND dangerous contributor to nuclear war.
Pressure now.
Cobban, 2009, Obama's Aide puts Israel's Nukes in the Diplomatic Mix, google
"regarding Palestine, Obama has argued" "washington has long employed in israel's favour"
won't change opacity
Kemp, 2001, Regional Strategic Programs, google
"Since september 11, israeli security" "which is one of studied ambiguity."
2AC CBW CP
CP provides incentives for aquisition and nudermines nonprolif norm
National Academy of Science, 1997, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, p. 75
A policy of nuclear deterrence of CBW AND consensus throughout the world.
Nuclear war outweighs CBWs.
Mendelsohn, 2006, "Deligitimizing Nuclear Weapons" google
"Second, despite efforts by the clinton" "cause 570,000 to 1,900,000 deaths"
proliferation turns any deterrence gain - conventional weapons prevent CBW use
Blair, 2009, Toward True SEcurity, google
"These added roles for U.S. nuclear weapons" "non-nuclear threat to their security"
SLBMs addons
first use option phases out ICBMS - plan shifts to SLBM relatiatory posture Martin, 2008, " A new look at No first use"
google
"By cultivating a culture of nonuse" "rolling in his grave"
Solves two interna llinks to crisis instability - nuclear war.
Brooks, 2001, Amrs Control and The Future Sub Force, google
"Predictability is a familiar term" "they are highly effective weapons"
more SLBMs key to prevent erosion of naval hegemony.
Hsiung, 2005, Law of the sea, and china-japan east china sea "resource War" google
"third, with the increasing importance" "alarming event for japan"
outweighs and solves all their impacts.
Friedman, 2007, "The limiations and necessity of naval power", google
"the argument for slashing the navy" "foremost, a maritime power."
A2 Declatory CP
NSA credibility - any qualification eviscerates it
Arbatov, 2008, Non-first use as a way of outlawing nuclear weapons" google
"When the NPT was signed in 1968" "foreign policy and defense strategy of the P5."
Modernization - china and russia model US first use - any retention of the option destroys the cred of the entire pledge
Miller, 2002, No first use of nuclear weapons" pugwash online, google
"NFU cannot be real if militaries develop" "calculalations of military commanders"
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CP politicizes the NPT - collapsing it Bali, 2008, At the Nuclear Precipice, p. 138-9
For this reason, it is imperative AND damaging the reputation of the IAEA.
Iran moderates turn
streghthens hardliners - only an unconditional NFU solves
Sagan, 2009, The case for no first use, survival
A US no-first-use declaration would also enhance AND faces nuclear threats.
Moderate Iranian FP accesses all your scenarios - and prevents terrorism
Copley, 2006, Iran's delicate year of living dangerously, lexis
Iran is the dynamic element in the curent AND Ocean basin in the 21st century.
extinction
sid-ahmen 2004
aggressive iranian foreign policy sparks ME warfare.
Salem 2007, dealing with iran's rapid rise in regional influence, lexis
Iran's rise is cuasing alarm in the arab middle east AND cooperative solutions before it is too late.
escalating nuclear wars most likely in the middle east
Kam, 2007, A nuclear iran, google
"The statements by Iranian president" "reducing the risk do not yet exist"
It’s the SQ – cant solve NSA credibility or their NB

Gombert et al 1995 “Us Nuclear declaratory policy: the question of nuclear first use”
“unfortunately, what the united states” … “given the right declaratory policy.”
CP leaves open first strike options

Martin et al 2008 “a new look at no first use”
“conference participants” … “ weapons they already have”
NPT collapse turns and solves the NB

Rublee 2009 The future of the Japanese Nuclear Policy
“Breakdown of the NPT.” …. “but it does increase the odds.”
Diplomatic posturing solves the link

Ambinder 9 – 24 – the atlantic
“as the United Nations Security Council” …. “Turkey, won’t feel anxious.”
ANY preemptive mission necessitates high alert and reliability standards

Oelrich, 9 – 24 “FAS Strategic Security Blog
“To achieve a fundamental change” … the foundation to build on”
CTBT => computer exports

Leitner 1998 – FDCH
As we meet today, the” … “performance computers to Russia”
Turns cp solvency/=> prolif

LEitner 1998
U.S. actions to promote … rejected by the U.S. Senate
Ratification => increase funding for INF

Fusion Power Report 1/1/98
“The $1.2 billion NIF project” … factors changes current thinking
Fusion research componenet of the SSP program undermines the ctb and sparks prolif
Institue for Energy and Environmental Research – 6-15-98
Key portions of the US ”stockpile stewardship” … “be immense,” he said”
CTBT horsetrading DA
Grossman etc
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Russian testing impacts
NUKE POWER DA ANSWERS
Intl fuel back solves nuclear power and avoids prolif

Store 8 “Norwegian Government: Arms Control, disarmament, and non-proliferation. A Norwegian perspective” lexis
Fifthly, we cannot make genuine progress…broad international support for this initiative
Cant bring enough reactors online

Ferguson 7 Charles D
Nuclear energy is unlikely to play a major role…power plants in permanent repositories
Nuke power doesn’t solve warming

Green 9 Jim, “Nuclear weapons and fourth generation nuclear power”
Others are less circumspect, with one advocate…Australia’s emissions by just 4%

Cals a2: Disarm K
Alternative is dismissed as utopian

Hellman-professor emeritus, Electrical Engineering, Stanford 8
Martin, Risk analysis of Nuclear Deterrence, Spring, www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf

“IF the proposed studies show” “which those steps will be taken”
2AC No Use CP
perm do both
text comp bad- minute, no opp cost, plan plus, no nb to the cp
solve loopholes- martin
SLBM Add-on
slbm shift- key to primacy
Hawkins 4-3-2009 (“Obama: ignoring china’s military buildup” Front page magazine, online)
“Testing just how much of a supplicant Clinton had been…major weapons programs that would be needed.
plan shifts slbm to retaliatory posture <>
Martin et al. Stanley foundation, 2008
(Matt, “A new look at No First Use” online)
“By cultivating a culture of nonuse. Rolling in his grave.”
More slbms’ key to prevent erosion of naval hegemony
Hsuing- NYU- 2005
(James, Sea Power, Low of the Sea and China-Japan East china Sea “Resource War”, online)
“Third, with the increatin importance of seaborne trade…an alarming event of Japan.”
outweighs all your impacts < >

Friedman 2k7
(George, “the limitations and necessity of naval power” online)
“The argument for slaching the Navy… first and foremost a maritime power.”
Iran add on
NFU solves Iranian nuclearization
Sagan, june 2009
(Scott, “The case for no first use”, Survival, issue 3, pg 163-182)
“A US no-first-use declaration…claim it faces nuclear threats.”
CP gives up leverage <>

Pickering, 2007
(Thomas R.. 1-31-07, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, online)
“There is no certainty of course that diplomacy can make a major difference… full agreement, as being trustworthy
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Terror attack = extinction <sid ahmed 04 >
No link to Kato, must recognize the possibility of other nuclear wars.

Kato, 93
(“Nuclear globalism: traversing rockets, satellites, and nuclear war” Alternatives. V. 18 N. 3)
“Nuclear criticism finds the likelyhood of extinction…unlocatable, global catastrophe”
Kato doesn’t differentiate between indigenous and assumes 4th world is obliterated <>
Kato 93
“Although Firth’s book is definitely a remarkable study of history…nations almost on a daily basis.”
essentialism – on indigenous community is colonialist<>

Velie, 98
(Alan, 23 Okla. City U.L. Rev. 189)
“It seems tha in common parlance…outsider’s vies, and an inaccurate one”
disarm-- conflict < 93>
Disarm leads to oppression worldwide, turns your morality arguments.

Fisher, 85
Morality of the Bomb p.61
“these then are the advantages of unilateral… inconsistent with the just war tradition.”
Disarm leads to conflict.
Lee 93
(Morality, Prudence and Nuclear weapons, p. 39-40)
“What would be the consequences…maintain their policies of nuclear deterrence”
perm do the cp
Aff v. Northwestern FiSp Gonzaga Round 5

Judge: Thompson, Jake
A2: Politics - Healthcare
Healthcare won’t pass – dems divided

LA Times 9-10 “Obama’s health address: the middle man returns”
“on the surface, obama’s speech to”
“will mean they lose their jobs in November 2010”
Biden pushes the plan

Grossman 9-18 “Inside Obama Administration, a Tug of War Over Nuclear Warheads”
“Though James Steinberg, Clinton’s deputy”
“to lead the administration’s nonproliferation initiatives”
Doesn’t require congressional approval

Mendelsohn 6 “Delegitimizing nuclear weapons”
“to this end, three actions can be taken”
“our declaratory policy in a day”
Normal means is pdd

Pilat 5 “Reassessing Security assurances in a Unipolar world”
“In November 1997, President Bill Clinton”
“would potentially affect a U.S. decision”
Declaratory posture shapes political opions on nukes

Martin 8 “A new look at no first use”
“participants noted that declaratory statements”
“adopted NFU, that debate would change”
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Winners win
Singer 9
A2: START DA
Aff is a prereq
Khlopkov 8-31
“The July Moscow summit didn’t produce any significant” “it was basically ignored altogether”
NFU gains concessions from Russia – they’ll negotiate down

Oelrich 9 “Ending nuclear counterforce”
“Even so, if the benefits could be potentially huge”
“hoped to get to through a first strike”
Russia won’t implement – cheating

Brookes 9-1 “Don’t Get Scammed by Russia again”
“American and Russian teams will start” “further jeopardizing our national security”
START won’t pass – gop

Pan 9 “Obama seeks new start with Russia”
“The Obama administration can bring the U.S.”
“would eat him alive,” Podvig said”
A2: Bioweapons
BCW prolif now
Fraser 12-7 “Inevitability of a WMD attack?”
“Earlier this week Vice President elect Joseph Biden”
“BSL4 laboratories around the country?”
Nuclear war outweighs CBWs

Mendelsohn 6 “Delegitimizing nuclear weapons”
“Second, despite efforts by the Clinton and Bush administrations to equate” “and cause 570,000 to 1,900,00 deaths”
International norms prevent CBW use

National Academy of Science 97 “The future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy”
“The United States has other means to deal with the” “or about to use, such weapons”
A2: CMR
Other issues swamp relations

US fed new 4-9
“The four areas where Kohn see” “the most problems of those four areas”
NFU phases out ICBMs

Martin 8 “A New Look at No First Use”
“By cultivating a culture of nonuse within the military” “Curtis LeMay would be rolling in his grave”
Land-based ICBMs destabilizing – SLBMs solve

Brooks 1 “Arms Control and the Future Sub Force”
“Predictability is a familiar term; crisis stability is not” “launch, they are highly effective weapons”
A2: Allied Prolif

NFU does not weaken perception of alliance commitments
Perkovich 9
“as long as the us has nuclear weapons” and the role of nuclear weapons in extended”
Bcw add on – first use threats encourage bcw attacks – forces the us to follow through to reestablish cred
Huntly 6 threats all the way down: us strategic initiatives p49-67
“beneath the question of whether US” and “with conventional retaliation”
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At consult japan
Says no
Flitton 9
“kawaguchi said deliberations” and “major conventional and other attack from north korea”
Green cfr 2000

“the orthodox managers of the alliance” and “ objected strenuously”
No public support
Yokoti 6/22
“the Japanese people remain” and “possessing such a deterrent”
Not enough space to test

Yokoti
“japan – a crowded island nation” and “ such a densely populated nation”
Undermines the alliance

Yokoti
“now occupies the nuke-free high ground” and “japan would get the blame”
Consulting over nfu makes us look like its conditioned on article 6 commitments
Butfoy 8 survival
“washington’s claim” and “us policy is hypocritical”
The npt – any qualification makes nsas meaningless nnws don’t trust them
Du preez et al 3 security assurances and nwfzs
“security assurances are currently” and “ from the nws under the npt”
Especially conditions – saying no nfu if japan causes nnws backlash

Goldblat 6
“the pledge made by” and “these assurances unconditional”
Gonzaga
Aff v. WhitmanFrMa
Gonzaga Round 1- Hamilton, B
Plan: The United States federal government should adopt a no nuclear first-use declaration.
Advantage 1: Non-Proliferation
Negative security assurances will make or break the 2010 Review Conference- US retention of the first use option will
collapse it and the NPT
Bunn International Studies Stanford ‘7
George and Jean Preez, Nonproliferation Director, Monterey Institute, More Than Words: The Value of U.S. Non-
Nuclear-Use Promises, April, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_07-08/NonUse
As a consequence of the ...weapons against states not having them.
Disputes over first use during the conference cause rapid proliferation breakout
Raghavan President Centre for Security Analysis ‘9
V.R., Nuclear Abolition: Need for a Phased Plan, February,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22748
Inability to agree by 2010 ...the United States give its allies.
And the regime is in crisis – proliferation is approaching a tipping point- Obama’s efforts to strengthen the NPT will fail
absent renewed commitment to Article 6
Gard Chairman Center for Arms Control 8-25
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Robert, Zero Nuclear Weapons: A Feasible Goal?,

http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nuclearweapons/articles/082509_zero_nuclear_weapons_feasible/
There are ominous signs that ...World Security Institute ‘9
Bruce, Toward True Security, February, www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/truesecurity.html - 3
Absent an unequivocal no-first-use declaration all other non-proliferation efforts will fail
Butfoy IR Monash ‘1
Andrew, The Politics of Nuclear Non-Proliferation, p. 162
Criticism of US ambiguity on ...
Ellsberg, Former Analyst RAND ‘8

Daniel, At the Nuclear Precipice, p. 85-6
Later in 1990, after ...states, led by our own.
Horizontal proliferation will be fast and destabilizing

Roberts Research Staff Institute for Defense Analyses ‘99
(Brad, Member of the at the & Member of the Editorial Board for the Nonproliferation Review, “VIEWPOINT:
PROLIFERATION AND NONPROLIFERATION IN THE 1990S: LOOKING FOR THE RIGHT LESSONS,” The Non
Proliferation Review, Fall, located at: http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol06/64/robert64.pdf)
NBC weapons are weapons of ...to deter nuclear attack by others.
Every conflict will go nuclear – extinction

Taylor Sr. Fellow Brookings ‘2
(Stuart, 9-14, “Invading Iraq Wouldn't Necessarily Make Us Safer”)
That risk dwarfs anything that Saddam Hussein … deter nuclear attack by others
US NFU strengthens norms against acquisition, boosts diplomatic momentum towards nonproliferation efforts
Martin Policy Analysis Stanley ‘8
Matt, A New Look at No First Use, http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/resources.cfm?id=334
NFU could also affect US ...to bear against Iran’s enrichment program.
A renewed US commitment to Article VI spurs international cooperation that prevents proliferation

Reif Nonproliferation Director Center for Arms Control ‘9
Kingston, Nuclear Reductions and Nonproliferation, July,
http://www.nukesofhazardblog.com/story/2009/7/15/134152/310
As I noted at the ...nuclear arms. [emphasis mine].
The NPT solves holdouts, props up associated regimes and remedies the security dilemma
Huntley Director Non Proliferation Program Liu Institute ‘7
Wade, Nuclear Nonproliferation: Time for ...New Thinking?, March
http://convention3.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/7/9/2/2/p179229_index.html
Behind the flash-points ...are marginal – far from it.
And the NPT creates domestic political pressure for nonproliferation

Sagan Poli Sci Stanford ‘00
(The Coming Crisis ...p36-37)
A different perspective on the ...of nuclear first-use doctrines.
And, U.S. retention of the first use option motivates global first strike modernization
Doyle Political Science UC Irvine ‘9
Thomas, The moral implications of the subversion of the Nonproliferation Treaty regime, Ethics & Global Politics, Vol
2, No 2 (2009)
http://www.ethicsandglobalpolitics.net/coaction/index.php/egp/article/view/1916/2263
A second fundamental change arises ...and its allies will be disastrous.
First strike modernization causes qualitative arms racing – guarantees preemptive nuclear use
Fuerth IR GW ‘1
Leon, Washington Quarterly Autumn
http://www.twq.com/01autumn/fuerth.pdf
Following Bush's meeting with Russian president… ts allies will be disastrous.
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And it creates global first strike anxiety – miscalculations will trigger nuclear war
McDonough Research Associate CIPS ‘6
David, Center for International Policy Stuides, 'Nuclear superiority' and the dilemmas for strategic stability, Adelphi
series, Volume ...46, Issue 383
'Strategic stability' and the appropriate ...exchange, would be dramatically increased.
NFU reverses international offensive shift and revives non-proliferation norms

Laird – Security Analyst – ‘9
Burgess, A Guide to the Challenges Facing President Obama's Nuclear Abolition Agenda, July,
http://www.cceia.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0025.html
There is another initiative that ..., bolster non-proliferation efforts.
US no-first-use is modeled and spurs regional solutions to address the root causes of proliferation
Civiak Specialist in Energy Technology CRS ‘9
Robert, Towards a new US Nuclear Posture, Disarmament Diplomacy Issue No. 90, Spring 2009, Spring,
http://pogoarchives.org/m/nss/nwccpn-report-20090401.pdf
The nuclear weapons posture of ...for preemptive or preventive nuclear attacks.
Advantage 2: South Asia
Another war is likely – US first use policy undermines external crisis mediation
Ellsberg Former Analyst RAND ‘8
Daniel, At the Nuclear Precipice, p. 84-5
U....S. NUCLEAR POLICIES ENCOURAGING PROLIFERATION
The retention of US first use influences Indian strategists to broaden the role and size of its nuclear arsenal – this
prompts Pakistani nuclear expansion
Koshy Fellow Harvard Law 6/4
Ninan, Maximizing minimum nuclear deterrence, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF04Df03.html
The new Indian Minister of ...is what we are witnessing now.
India models US first-use declarations– making a nuclear strike against Pakistan likely
Sagan Political Science Stanford ‘9
Scott, The Case for No First Use, Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3 June 2009 , ...pages 163 – 182
US officials have long claimed ...pushing India in the opposite direction.
South Asian modernization tips the strategic balance towards offensive systems – creating instability
Khan Fellow Woodrow Wilson Center ‘9
Feroz Hassan, PAKISTAN’S PERSPECTIVE ON THE GLOBAL
ELIMINATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS, March, http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=798
India’s strategic modernization program includes ...growing threat it perceives from India.
Offensive doctrinal shifts guarantee a nuclear exchange – deterrence doesn’t stand a chance
Kapur National Security Affairs Naval Postgraduate School ‘8
(S. Paul.-, International Security, “Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia...”, Fall Lexis)
http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22297/isec.2008.33.2.pdf
As noted above, nuclear ...behave in a largely rational manner.
Nuclear winter
Washington Times ‘1
(July 8, “The most dangerous place”, Lexis)
The foreign policy of the ...
Fox Independent Journalist ‘8
(Maggie, April 8, “India-Pakistan Nuclear War Would Cause Ozone Hole”
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/47829/story.htm)
WASHINGTON - Nuclear war between ...," Toon said in a statement.
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Indian nuclear policy is based DIRECTLY on the perceived need to mimic US doctrinal policy – plan sends a signal
that shifts power back to moderate strategists
Scott, The Evolution of Pakistani and Indian Nuclear Doctrine, October, www.stanford.edu/group/ir.../Sagan%20Ch
%206%20102907.doc
http://www.stanford.edu/group/ir_workshop/Sagan%20Ch%206%20102907.doc
A third important change in ...nuclear legitimacy and responsibility in India.
This signal can alter the internal dynamics in India and Pakistan – reversing the trend towards more flexible doctrines
Scott, The Evolution of Pakistani and Indian Nuclear Doctrine, October, www.stanford.edu/group/ir.../Sagan%20Ch
%206%20102907.doc
http://www.stanford.edu/group/ir_workshop/Sagan%20Ch%206%20102907.doc
Islamabad officials’ statements about nuclear ...nuclear arsenal, in the future.
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CSU-Chico McNutt/Reyes (NFU) [DCH]
Plan Text: The United States federal government should establish a declaratory policy of no-first-use of our nuclear
weapons.
Contention 1: India
India on the brink of rolling back its NFU policy
India Times 9/6 (“May have to revisit nuclear no first use policy: Army Chief”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/india/May-have-to-revisit-nuclear-no-first-use-policy-Army-
chief/articleshow/4977129.cms)
The United States policy of first-use is directly modeled by the Indian government and will result in Indian proliferation
and rollback
Sagan 9 (Scott, Professor of Political Science and co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and
Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use,” Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3 June 2009 , pages 163 – 182, InformaWorld,
AD: 7-28-09)
India models the United States declaratory policy
The Stanley Foundation 8 (“THE STANLEY FOUNDATION: A NEW LOOK AT NO FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR
WEAPONS,” MaximsNews Network, August 22,
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm, AD: 7-28-09)
US declaration of NFU would prevent Indian backsliding
Berry 9 (Ken, ICNND Research Coordinator “DRAFT TREATY ON NON-FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS”
http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Berry_No_First_Use_Treaty.pdf, AD: 7-31-09)
India and Pakistan will model United States policies that lend themselves to pre-emption – makes conflict inevitable
Daalder 2 (Ivo, US Representative to NATO, “Policy Implications of the Bush Doctrine on Preemption,” Council on
Foreign Relations, November 16, http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=5251, AD: 7-28-09)
Indo/Pak war inevitable without a US NFU model
Ninan, 6/4 ( Koshy, “Maximizing minimum nuclear deterrence”,

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF04Df03.html,
Aggressive Indian nuclear policies cause catastrophic escalation
Kapur ‘8 (S. Paul.-, International Security, “Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia...”, Fall 2008
http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22297/isec.2008.33.2.pdf)
India-Pakistan conflict leads to nuclear war
Hindutva News Analysis 07 (“The Ominous Symptoms of a post-Musharraf Indo-Pak Nuclear War,” July 15, 2007
http://64.233.167.104/search?
q=cache:ft9cT9nqp_4J:hindutva.org/indopakwar.html+musharraf+coup+pakistan+war+india&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=7&gl=
us)
Regional instability leads to nuclear war and destruction of the world.
Michael May, Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford, Washington Quarterly, Summer 1997.
Contention 2: Proliferation
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Status quo declaratory policy drastically undermines our non-proliferation credibility – no-first-use is key to restoring it
Sagan 9 [Scott, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use” July 28
http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/325449_731200419_911401295.pdf]
The alternative to no first use is rapid-wildfire proliferation
Krieger and Ong 2 (David & Carah, president and Director of Publications and Research at the Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, Apr, “No First Use,” http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/04/00_krieger_no-first-use.htm, Acc. Jul
28, 2009)
Prolif is the most likely scenario for extinction
Miller 2 (James D. Miller, professor of economics, Smith College, NATIONAL REVIEW, January 23, 2002, p.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-miller012302.shtml, AD: 7-31-09)
Declaring a no first use policy solves proliferation and nuclear war – it trickles down to changing our strategic decision-
making and enhances our credibility
We solve rogue and allied proliferation
Yu 9 [Rong, Ph. D. candidate at the Institute of International Strategy and Development, “Nuclear No-First-Use
Revisited,” http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=225&Itemid=8, Acc. Jul 28,
2009)
Contention 3: Terror
First use makes us unable to win the war on terror
Helfstein et al. 8 (Dr. Scott, Col. Michael Meese, Don Rassler, Maj. Reid Sawyer, Maj. Troy Schnack, Maj. Mathew
Sheiffer, Dr. Scott Silverstone, Maj. Scott Taylor, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/pdf/Terrorist_Deterrence.pdf, AD: 7-30-09)
Extinction
Sid-Ahmed 04 [Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, Extinction! http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
Terrorist attacks against the US are inevitable
Winkates 5 (Jim, Professor of International Affairs at Air War College“ "Suicide Terrorism: Are There Important
Counterterrorist Lessons To Be Learned?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies
Association, March 5, http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p71205_index.html, AD: 7-31-09)
NFU policy can function as escalation control against terrorists – first use ensures extinction
Peng and Rong 9 (Yu and Guangqian, PhD candidate at the Institute of International Strategy and Development,
School of Public Policy and Management and editor-in-chief of Strategic Sciences and has long been engaged in
research on military strategy and international affairs. http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=225&Itemid=8, AD: 7-28-09)
A terrorist attack destroys the global economy
Bunn 7 (Matthew, John P. Holdren, Anthony Wier, Assistant Director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy
program at Harvard's School of Gov't, "Securing The Bomb: 2007” September, Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer
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Center for Science and International Affairs, Commissioned by the Nuclear Threat
Initiative,www.nti.org/securingthebomb)
Economic decline causes extinction
Phil Kerpen, National Review Online, October 29, 2008, Don't Turn Panic Into Depression,
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/29/opinion/main4555821.shtml
Contention 4: Hegemony
NFU pledge locks in US conventional leadership.
Stanley Foundation 8 (Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, “A new look at no first use” DA: 7-
28-09
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/NoFirstUsePDB708.pdf,)
Perception of our conventional superiority ensures hegemony.
Posen 3 (Barry R., Prof of Poli Sci @ MIT, “Command of the Commons”
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/international_security/v028/28.1posen.html, International Security 28.1 DA: 7-30-09)
No-First-Use secures soft power
Maynes 6 (Charles W, “A soft power tool-kit for dealing with Russia,” Europe’s World, Summer 2006,
http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home/Article/tabid/191/ArticleType/articleview/ArticleID/20599/Default.aspx)
Soft power is key to sustain hegemony due to alliances and information sharing.
Nye 4 (Joseph S, “Soft Power and American Foreign Policy”, Harvard IR prof., vol. 119, no. 2, p. 261)
Hegemony prevents nuclear war
Khalilzad, 95 (Zalmay, Washington Quarterly, Spring, lexis)
2ar strategy notes: All in on conditionality bad
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Dartmouth Chenoweth/Rein (NFU-NoKo) [Jake]
Harvard Round 2 -- New Aff
Plan: The United States Federal Government should adopt a nuclear no first use policy against the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea
Contention One is The Talks
US taking a hard line with North Korea now—assures talks fail

“U.S. Says Will Never Have Normal Ties With Nuclear North Korea,”
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/10/21/us/politics/politics-us-korea-north-clinton.html
U.S. Secretary of ...be accepted as a nuclear state.
The talks will fail unless we end our nuclear aggression against North Korea
“Fresh South Korea nuclear proposal "ridiculous": North,”
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE58T1RS20090930
North Korea Wednesday rejected a proposal ...the West considers top atomic threats.
No first use against North Korea is critical to a Grand Bargain with North Korea
Kim Kyong-soo, international politics professor at Myongji University, 9-30-9, “Making the ‘grand bargain’ stick,”
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2910676
North Korea has so far kept ...by an adversary using nuclear arms.
Talks would cap North Korean nuclearization and prevents regime collapse
Paul B. Stares, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and coauthor of "Preparing for Sudden Change in
North Korea," 10-16-2009. [Los Angeles Times, Pyongyang duck,
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-stares16-2009oct16,0,2100772.story ]
So why bother talking to Pyongyang ...Korea should the situation suddenly deteriorate.
The process of continual negotiations is key to prevent North Korean aggression.

Virginie Grzelczyk, Ph.D. (Political Science @ Maryland), specialist in Northeast Asia and Korean peninsula affairs,
2009. [International Negotiation 14, Six-Party Talks and Negotiation Strategy: When Do We Get There?, p. 95-119]
The Six-Party Talks process ...full of matches in its hands.
Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy
School of Government, 2-17-5, “The Specter of Nuclear Proliferation,”
http://articles.latimes.com/2005/feb/17/opinion/oe-allison17
If North Korea has, in ...catastrophic transformation for the United States.
Miscalculation in Asia is likely. Cold War deterrence model is not applicable

Stephen J. Cimbala, Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University – Brandywine, March 2008,
“Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2, pages 113 –
132, Informaworld
The spread of nuclear weapons in ...avoidance of war outside of Europe.19
Extinction
Van Jackson, Examiner, 7/6/9, “Obama’s Nuclear Plan Could Prevent Asian Arms Race,” The Examiner Online,
http://www.examiner.com/x-16317-DC-Asia-Policy-Examiner~y2009m7d6-Obamas-nuclear-plan-could-prevent-Asian-
arms-race
From an East Asian security perspective ...spiral model arms race described above.
Only a large carrot in the form of a No First Use pledge can assuage Korean fears and prevent all-out Asian war
Hui Zhang, leading a research initiative on China's nuclear policies for Harvard Kennedy School's Managing the Atom
project. He is a physicist and specialist in issues related to nuclear arms control and Chinese nuclear policy, June
2009, “Don't Play Nuclear Chicken with a Desperate Pariah,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?
story_id=5020
In retaliation for tightened U....could ultimately leave both sides bloodied.
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Asian war goes nuclear and kills the economy

Jon Landay, 3/10/2000, Knight Ridder, Washington Bureau, lexis
The 3,700-mile ...the already shaky international nonproliferation regime.
Econ collapse causes nuclear war

Walter Russell Mead, the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations,
February 4, 2009, “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic
History may suggest that financial crises ...we may still have to fight.
North Korea is on the brink of regime collapse

Paul Stares, senior fellow at CFR, and Joel Wit, senior fellow at Weatherhead East Asia, January 2009, “Preparing for
Sudden Chance in North Korea,” CFR,
http://www.cfr.org/publication/18019/preparing_for_sudden_change_in_north_korea.html
However, other scenarios that bring ...state might finally come to pass.
North Korean regime collapse causes superpower conflict

Paul Stares, senior fellow at CFR, and Joel Wit, senior fellow at Weatherhead East Asia, January 2009, “Preparing for
These various scenarios would present the ...and American intervention in the North.
US maintenance of first strike options against North Korea drives perception of vulnerability, encouraging prolif and
undermining crisis stability—causes nuclear war
David McDonough, Consultant at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, May-June 2006, “The Us
Nuclear Shift To The Pacific: Implications For ‘Strategic Stability,’” http://www.rcmi.org/archives/SITREP/06/06-
3%20Sitrep.pdf
The American deployment of sophisticated counter...already fraught with instability and distrust.
North Korea wants to use nukes—triggers nuclear exchange

Kim Myong Chol, Exec. Dir. of Center for Korean-American Peace, “The Agreed Framework is Brain Dead,”
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html
Three facts may suggest the extent ...towards normalising relations with North Korea.
Changing our nuclear posture is key

Wade L. Huntley, Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research Liu Institute for Global Issues,
University of British Columbia, 21 September 2005, “Waiting to Exhale: The Six-Party Talks Agreement,”
http://liu.xplorex.com/sites/liu/files/Publications/waitingtoexhale.pdf
Beyond these immediate obstacles, however...put everything else on the table.
A no first use establishes clear red lines that solve

International Crisis Group, “North Korea: Getting Back To Talks,” Asia Report N°169 – 18 June 2009,
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/09051AICGTalks.pdf
There needs to be a clearly ...by non-nuclear military means.
NK will respond to a US policy change

Wade L. Huntley, Program Director at the Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research, in the Liu
Institute for Global Studies, University of British Columbia, Summer 2004, “Ostrich Engagement,” The Nonproliferation
Review, p. 109-110
On the other hand, North ...its head out of the sand.
Contention Two is Bluffing
No one believes US wants to escalate to nuclear level over Korea.

Michael Horowitz, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University, 2009. [Journal of COnflcit
Resolution,
of Pennsylvania, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?]
The results for defenders could represent ...allies to influence North Korean behavior.23
Eliminating the nuclear threat results in credible deterrence
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for Global Issues, University of British Columbia, “Threats all the way down,” Cambridge Journals
The situation in North Korea is ...of the regime’s own nuclear ambitions.57
South Korea doesn’t believe the US nuke umbrella is credible

“U.S. Called on to Redeploy Nuclear Weapons in South Korea,”
Amid fears of North Korea's nuclear...effectively deter North Korea's nuclear threats."
North Korea’s a key test of US credibility—failure to live up to tough talk will undermine US credibility.
Dan Spencer, J.D., practicing attorney in NY, 4-6-2009. [U.N. Security Council fails to act on North Korean rocket
launch, http://www.redcounty.com/un-security-council-fails-act-north-korean-rocket-launch]
The North Korean rocket launch presents ...their support for a military response.
Statistics prove acquiescing solves deterrence due to bluffing—causes massive wars

Anne E. Sartori, (associate professor of political science at Northwestern University), Winter 2002, International
Organization 56, 1, Winter 2002, pp. 105-9
However, these two arguments are ...are robust to this alternative specification.
Bluffing kills hegemony regardless of hard power

Anne E. Sartori, (associate professor of political science at Northwestern University), Winter 2002, International
Organization 56, 1, Winter 2002, pp. 116
My view is that the military ...even controlling for the military balance.
Collapse of heg results in global nuclear conflicts in every region of the world
Robert, Senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History,” 7/19,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html
This is a good thing, ...involvement will provide an easier path.
A2: Japan Prolif DA

1. Plan solves the impact—North Korea prolif causes Japan to nuclearize
2. The alliance is dead

“Tokyo smackdown,” http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/10/23/tokyo_smackdown
Hatoyama came into office a month ...the alliance within Japan's Foreign Ministry.
3. Korean prolif destroys the US nuclear umbrella—causes Japan prolif

Bruce Bennett, senior policy analyst at RAND, 4/9/2009, “N.K. provocation suggests regime in trouble,”
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/04/09/KH.html
Potentially, North Korea can now ...that this was a space launch.
4. Successful talks solve allied fears

Wade L. Huntley, Program Director at the Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research, in the Liu
Institute for Global Studies, University of British Columbia, Summer 2004, “Ostrich Engagement,” The Nonproliferation
Review, p. 107
Specifically, such a bold U...its absence with respect to Iraq.
5. Japan wants US NFU pledge.

Bernama 10-19-2009. [Japanese FM Urges U.S. Not To Use Nuclear Weapons First,
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=447826]
Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada on ...-first use of nuclear weapons.
6. First use pledge strengthens forces for Japanese rearm

Mitsuru Kurosawa, Professor Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University, 3-11-2004, “East
Asian Regional Security and Arguments for a Nuclear Japan,” http://serv.peace.hiroshima-
cu.ac.jp/image/Kurosawa.pdf
In addition, the United States ...weapons states parties to the NPT.
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A2: Generic Extended Deterrence DAs
1. Disad inevitable—made cuts recently and will make cuts in the future—that’s Ingram and Kristensen
2. NMD decision undermines credibility of US extended deterrence.

David and Kirkpatrick 9-17
Jack David, deputy assistant secretary of defense for combating weapons of mass destruction 2004-2006, senior
fellow at the Hudson Institute, Melanie Kirkpatrick, former deputy editor of the Wall Street Journal, 9-17-2009. [Wall
Street Journal, A New Nuclear-Arms Race,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574419173653298610.html?mod=googlenews_wsj]
Call it a shot heard round ...nuclear deterrent affords are plainly diminished.
3. Extended deterrence doesn’t affect allied prolif—survey of allies shows

Shaw 9
Douglas B. Shaw, Ph.D., Associate Dean for Planning, Research, and External Relations at the George Washington
University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, 3-17-2009. [Nuclear allies should talk more,
http://nukesonablog.blogspot.com/search/label/extended%20deterrence]
A recurring argument on the American ...S. allies to nuclear nonproliferation.
4. Allies are more concerned about TNWs and the NPT than the nuclear umbrella
George Perkovich, vice president for studies and director of the Nonproliferation Program at the Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace, March/April 2003, “Bush's Nuclear Revolution: A Regime Change in Nonproliferation,” Foreign
Affairs, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16207
On the "demand" side...as called for by the NPT.
A2: Deterrence DA
1. TNWs are useless and have no deterrent effect—our nuclear umbrella is a sufficient deterrent—that’s Kristensen
and Blair
2. Removing nuclear sharing does not undermine NATO deterrence

Otfried Nassauer, Analyst @ Berlin Information Center for Transatlantic Security, April 2002 (“NATO’s Nuclear Posture
Review: Should Europe End Nuclear Sharing?” – BITS) http://www.bits.de/public/policynote/pn02-1.htm
The example of the new NATO ...the credibility of the Alliance’s deterrent.
3. TNWs are a useless security blanket—must get rid of them to bolster NATO’s credibility
Paul Ingram, Executive Director, British American Security Information Council, April 2009, “Eliminating battlefield
nuclear weapons from Europe and moving towards the adoption of a non-nuclear weapon security doctrine for the
Alliance,” in “The Shadow NATO Summit: Options for NATO - pressing the reset button on the strategic concept,”
British American Security Information Council, http://www.basicint.org/pubs/natoshadow.pdf
TNWs have no realistic or credible ...dramatically over the next few years.
4. TNWs are not a credible deterrent—only removing them can effectively deter
Brian Polser, Air Force Major, Master's in National Security Affairs from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School,
September 2004, “Theater Nuclear Weapons in Europe: The Contemporary Debate,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-
bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA427697&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
Moreover, the same logic leading ...are irrelevant in today’s security environment.
A2: Turkey Relations
1. Disad inevitable—made cuts recently and will make cuts in the future—that’s Ingram and Kristensen
2. Turkish confidence in NATO and American security guarantees is low.

Chipman 8
John Chipman, Ph.D., Director-General and Chief Executive of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, 5-20-
2008. [IISS, Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran, p.
http://www.iiss.org/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=23353]
Some in Turkey believe that the ...confidence in American leadership remains low.
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3. Plan increasing our security guarantee to Turkey by bolstering our conventional superiority
4. Relations low and impact empirically denied

Turkish NY, 9/10/9, “Transatlantic survey: Turkey warming toward US, Europe but still ‘outlier'”
http://www.turkishny.com/en/english-news/15153-transatlantic-survey-turkey-warming-toward-us-europe-but-still-.html
Demonstrators protest US President Barack Obama ...Turkish people who valued NATO in 2004.
5. TNWs unpopular in Turkey

Claudine Lamond and Paul Ingram, British American Security Information Council, January 23, 2009, “Politics around
US tactical nuclear weapons in European host states,” BASIC Getting to Zero Paper,
www.atlanticcommunity.org/app/webroot/files/articlepdf/CLamondTNWinNATO.pdf
There is a rising sentiment amongst ...and delay in the Turkish parliament.
6. Conventional deterrence fills in—Turkey actively supports withdrawing TNWs

Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, September 2009. [Arms Control Today, Change
U.S. Nuclear Policy? Yes, We Can, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_09/focus]
Given the United States’ conventional military ...view to their reduction and elimination.”
Kentucky 1ac
Contention One is the Status Quo

We’ve recently pulled out lots of tactical nukes from Europe
Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, June 26,
2008, “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Withdrawn From the United Kingdom,” http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/06/us-nuclear-
weapons-withdrawn-from-the-united-kingdom.php
The United States has withdrawn nuclear ...continuing deployment in other European countries.
We will inevitably remove our tactical nukes from Europe due to prohibitive costs—must cut now
I conclude by observing that in ...force in the Alliance warn of.
Debate on American TNWs is inevitable

Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Foundation for Strategic Research, 9-26-2008. [Real Instituto Elcano, The
Coming NATO Nuclear Debate, http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_eng/Content?
WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT
=/Elcano_in/Zonas_in/ARI117-2008]
It is the contention of this ...NATO’s nuclear and missile defence policy.
Plan: The United States federal government should remove B61 bombs from North Atlantic Treaty Organization
countries and cease sharing B61 bombs through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Contention Two is Prolif
The NPT is on the brink and prolif is reaching the tipping point—failure to boost NPT credibility causes rapid and
worldwide prolif
John F. Reichart, director, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University, June
2009, “Are We Prepared?” http://www.ndu.edu/WMDCenter/docUploaded/Are%20We%20Prepared.pdf
The crisis scenario. The nonproliferation ...could be targeted by such weapons.
50 countries have “breakout capabilities”—NPT collapse causes them to proliferate

Lt. General Robert G. Gard, Chairman of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 8/25/9, “Zero Nuclear
Weapons: A Feasible Goal?”
The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of ...he terms "breakout" capability.
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Proliferation snowballs and puts everyone on hair trigger – every small crisis will go nuclear.
Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional
Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, ‘9 (Henry, Avoiding a
Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)
At a minimum, such developments ...their critics, would ever want.

Stephen J. Cimbala, Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University – Brandywine, March 2008,
“Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2, pages 113 –
132, Informaworld
The spread of nuclear weapons in ...avoidance of war outside of Europe.19
Owen B. Toon et al, Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at University of Colorado, March 2007, “Nuclear
War: Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts,” Science, Vol. 315. no. 5816, pp. 1224 – 1225
The world may no longer face ...society since the dawn of humans.
Withdrawal of TNWs revitalizes the NPT at the 2010 Review—solves prolif

Bob van der Zwaan, Pugwash Council, January 12, 2009, “Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for Disarmament?” An
International Workshop of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs,
http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/time_for_disarmament.htm
Continuing the practice of forward deploying ...or non-nuclear weapon states.
Removing TNWs boosts the NPT

Ernie Regehr, cofounder of Project Ploughshares, adjunct associate professor in peace studies at Conrad Grebel
University College, and fellow of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, February 18, 2009, “NATO
Summit: A Chance to Kick the Nuclear Habit,”
http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/Articles/ErnieEMBASSYOPEDFeb1809.pdf
NATO thus has the opportunity to ...in the process revitalize the NPT.
Failure to remove TNWs assures NPT collapse

John Avery, former member of Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, Associate Professor in quantum
chemistry at Copenhagen, 1/22/9, “The way is open for a Nuclear weapon free Northern Europe,” http://www.active-
nonviolence.org/?p=196
The strongest argument for the removal ...the 2010 Review Conference from failure.
Contention Three is Terrorism
Unilateral TNW removal jump-starts US-Russian relations and triggers Russian transparency—solves loose nukes
U.S. theater nuclear ...in the current international nonproliferation effort.
European TNWs and Russian opacity cause terrorism

Dr. William C. Potter, Director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Dr. Charles D. Ferguson, Scientist-in-
Residence based in the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2005, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism,
http://www.nti.org/c_press/analysis_4faces.pdf, p. 94-5
Russia, too, it should ...seeking to reduce further their number.133
Terrorist use of a Russian nuke causes full-out nuclear war

Marko Beljac, PhD at Monash University, Teaches at LaTrobe University and the University of Melbourne, June 2009,
“The nuclear terror of Bush 'negligence policy,” Eureka Street, Vo 18 No 12,
http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=7585
It was not widely reported, ...al Qaeda the keys to Armageddon.
Terrorism causes extinction and kills the economy

O. B. Toon et al, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics,
University of Colorado, Boulder, April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale
nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” https://eprints.kfupm.edu.sa/107056/1/107056_1.pdf
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To an increasing extent, people ...the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Only a unilateral action solves and results in Russian transparency

Łukasz Kulesa, analyst at The Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 2009, “Reduce US Nukes in Europe to
Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and Nuclear). A View from Poland,” PISM Strategic Files (PISM Strategic Files), issue:
#7, pages: 14, www.ceeol.com
Should NATO engage Russia as a ...up part of its nuclear potential.
Contention Four is Russian Relations
Tactical nukes preclude US-Russian cooperation—the plan shifts security away from a zero-sum game
Jeff King, Chris Lindborg, Philip Maxon, British American Security Information Council, October 2008, “NATO Nuclear
Sharing: Opportunity for Change?” BASIC Getting to Zero Papers Number 9,
se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/92368/.../gtz09.pdf
Despite the underlying post-Cold ...that is critical to global security.
TNWs in Europe dooms US-Russia cooperation

Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army
War College, March 2009, “Introduction: Prospects For U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation,”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=892)
Nonetheless, obviously the rise of ...of U.S. policies.9
Russia thinks TNWs will be placed in new NATO countries—causes an arms race
Dimitry Solovyvov, writer for Reuters, Oct 1, 2008, “Russia fears U.S. nuclear arms on its borders,”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4907RV20081001
Accession of Russia's neighbors Ukraine and ...South Ossetia -- as independent states.

Jeffrey Taylor, Atlantic correspondent living in Moscow, November 2008, Medvedev Spoils the Party,
http://www.theatlantic.com/ doc/200811u/medvedev-obama
Like it or not, the ...a volatile future arm in arm.
Relations solve Russian war—goes nuclear

Dr. Andreas Umland, teaches at the Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Upper Bavaria, 2/19/9, “NATO-Russia
War: A Scenario,” http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/nato-russia-war-scenario
A plain extrapolation of recent political ...between two nuclear super-powers.
US-Russian nuclear war causes extinction

Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, Recipient of the Gannon Award, March 2002,
www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html
A much greater existential risk emerged ...destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
Specifically, Russian relations solve Arctic security

Sven G. Holtsmark, Deputy Director at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, and Brooke A. Smith-Windsor,
Canada’s Senior National Representative at the NATO Defense College, May 2009, “Introduction,” in “Security
prospects in the High North: geostrategic thaw or freeze?” ed. Sven G. Holtsmark and Brooke A. Smith-Windsor,
NATO Defense College
More than anything else, Katarzyna ...important signalling effect of exercise scenarios.
Causes conflict
Scott G. Borgerson, International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Lieutenant
Commander in the U.S. Coast Guard, March/April 2008, “Arctic Meltdown,” Foreign Affairs
Despite the melting icecap's potential to ...no clear picture of ownership exists.
That goes nuclear
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Rob Huebert, Professor of Political Science/Strategic Studies Program at University of Calgary, 2007, “Canada and the
Circumpolar World: Meeting the Challenges of Cooperation into the Twenty-First Century: A Critique of Chapter 4,”
http://www.carc.org/calgary/a4.htm
The potential for an accidental nuclear ...continue to build the Borei class.
Contention Five is Solvency
Ending nuclear sharing solve NPT cred, results in Russian TNW transparency, and avoids undermining NATO
cohesion
By making a decision on the ...possibly also by Greece and Turkey.
The mission of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe should be eliminated

Bruce G. Blair, president of the World Security Institute, er al February 2008, “Toward True Security: Ten Steps the
Next President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy,” Report by FAS, NRDC, and UCS
6. The United States should ...this effort contingent on Russian actions.
Plan assuages European concerns about the US

Hans M. Kristensen, Project Director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists,
January 2009, “The Minot Investigations: From Fixing Problems to Nuclear Advocacy,”
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/01/schlesingerreport.php
The TLAM and DCA are weapons ...Nuclear Posture Review can do better.
GSU Round 1 v. UTD

2AC Deterrence DA
TNW usless and no deterrent effect, umbrella OK, Christen and Blair
Not undermine umbrella, Nastar 2 (conventional and strategic)
TNWs are not a credible deterrent—only removing them can effectively deter
Moreover, the same logic leading ...are irrelevant in today’s security environment.
Using nuclear threats in uncredible situations undermines deterrence.

George Perkovich, Ph.D., vice president for studies and director of the Nonproliferation Program at the Carnegie
Endowment, May 2009. [Paper commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and
Disarmament, Extended Deterrence on the Way to a Nuclear-Free World, p.
www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Perkovich_Deterrence.pdf]
This tension is the heart of ...nuclear deterrence during the Cold War.
2AC NATO Consult

NATO wants the US to take unilateral action—consultation means NATO says no
Dr. Nikolai N. Sokov, Senior Research Associate at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 2009,
“Tactical (Substrategic) Nuclear Weapons,” in “Four Emerging Issues in Arms Control, Disarmament, and
Nonproliferation: Opportunities for German Leadership,”
http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/090717_german_leadership/german_leadership_full.pdf
European NATO members, however, ...but silent drawdown of these weapons.
Turn—Heg—Consultation destroys heg

Charles Krauthammer, The National Interest, Winter, 2003
America must be guided by its ..., if you will keep it.
Heg solves nuclear war
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Zalmay Khalilzad, Former Assist Prof of Poli Sci at Columbia, Spring 1995, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2;
P. 84
Under the third option, the ...a multipolar balance of power system.
Britain and France say no

Lukasz Kulesa, Acting Head of the Research Office and Deputy Head of the Research Office at the Polish Institute of
International Affairs, 4-6-2009, “Are the Requirements for Extended Deterrence Changing?” Carnegie International
Nonproliferation Conference,
About the consultations and discussions, ...this is a very important point.
Case impacts come faster—consultation is too slow

Atis Lejins, director of the Latvian Foreign Policy Institute, 11-23-2006. [Interview with BBC Worldwide Monitoring,
Latvian foreign policy expert discusses NATO Summit, US 'mistakes', p. lexis]
[ Diena ] So basically the ...because it does not need it.
Perm do the CP – J b/c not text comp – should not would not immediacy
Perm both
Perm do plan and consult
Consult bad Inf number impossible be aff Moot aff – change non-germane # world – modify yes no
Perm do the plan and then the CP – J b/c timeframe
Plan solve NB – reassure allies protected
Perm do the CP if NATo says yes
Condo voter – skew strat moving target – damage done – one dispo solve
DA inevitable – cuts in the future – Christenson

1AC says NMD undermine extended deterrence
Plan assuage EU fears, Christenson in 1AC
Sharing undermine NATO coherence, X 5
Umbrella dead to Turkey, x
Nuclear sharing cause structural prolif, x
Plan bolster NPT solves prolif args means terminal MPX
2AC Politics (Afghan surge good)

Says NMD should be enough – CX – take out DA
Obama no capital pushing HC now – ev discuss
Dm opposition troop surge, Guardian 9-18
Plan bipart – cost
Thomas Withington, “The Tactical Nuclear weapons game”, 8-13-08, Online
Moreover, the two main parties in the US have indicated that they want to revisit… effect on the US defense budget.
Plan is a massive win.
James Kitfield, National Journal, 11-18-08, “Obama will have opening on arms initiatives, expert says”, Online
National Journal: Do you agree with those who argue that the Obama admnistrations hould move… think you would
see the opposite of blowback.
Turn – win win a) Obama pushing TNW removal now – Tertais
b) Winners win, controversial issue kt Obama agenda
Singer, 3-3-09, Onlin
Peter Hart gets at a key point. Some believe that political capital is finite… univleras lhealthcare to energy reform to
ending the war in Iraq.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention One is the Status Quo
We’ve recently pulled out lots of tactical nukes from Europe

Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, June 26,
2008, “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Withdrawn From the United Kingdom,” http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/06/us-nuclear-
weapons-withdrawn-from-the-united-kingdom.php
The United States has withdrawn nuclear ...continuing deployment in other European countries.
We will inevitably remove our tactical nukes from Europe due to prohibitive costs—must cut now
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I conclude by observing that in ...force in the Alliance warn of.
Debate on American TNWs is inevitable

Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Foundation for Strategic Research, 9-26-2008. [Real Instituto Elcano, The
Coming NATO Nuclear Debate, http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_eng/Content?
WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT
=/Elcano_in/Zonas_in/ARI117-2008]
It is the contention of this ...NATO’s nuclear and missile defence policy.
Plan: The United States federal government should end the deployment of nuclear weapons in North Atlantic Treaty
Organization countries and cease sharing nuclear weapons through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Contention Two is Prolif
The NPT is on the brink and prolif is reaching the tipping point—failure to boost NPT credibility causes rapid and
worldwide prolif
John F. Reichart, director, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University, June
2009, “Are We Prepared?” http://www.ndu.edu/WMDCenter/docUploaded/Are%20We%20Prepared.pdf
The crisis scenario. The nonproliferation ...could be targeted by such weapons.
Proliferation snowballs, breaks alliance stability, and puts everyone on hair trigger – every small crisis will go nuclear.
Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional
Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, ‘9 (Henry, Avoiding a
Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)
At a minimum, such developments ...their critics, would ever want.
Withdrawal of TNWs revitalizes the NPT at the 2010 Review—solves prolif

Bob van der Zwaan, Pugwash Council, January 12, 2009, “Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for Disarmament?” An
International Workshop of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs,
http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/time_for_disarmament.htm
Continuing the practice of forward deploying ...or non-nuclear weapon states.
Removing TNWs boosts the NPT

Ernie Regehr, cofounder of Project Ploughshares, adjunct associate professor in peace studies at Conrad Grebel
University College, and fellow of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, February 18, 2009, “NATO
Summit: A Chance to Kick the Nuclear Habit,”
http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/Articles/ErnieEMBASSYOPEDFeb1809.pdf
NATO thus has the opportunity to ...in the process revitalize the NPT.
Contention Three is Terrorism
Unilateral TNW removal jump-starts US-Russian relations and triggers Russian transparency—solves loose nukes
U.S. theater nuclear ...in the current international nonproliferation effort.
European TNWs and Russian opacity cause terrorism

Dr. William C. Potter, Director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Dr. Charles D. Ferguson, Scientist-in-
Residence based in the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2005, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism,
http://www.nti.org/c_press/analysis_4faces.pdf, p. 94-5
Russia, too, it should ...seeking to reduce further their number.133
Russian loose nukes cause nuclear war

Patrick F. Speice, Jr., JD from and Graduate Research Fellow at Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of
William & Mary, February 2006, “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation” 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427
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Accordingly, there is a significant ...the use of nuclear weapons. n53
Terrorism causes extinction and kills the economy

O. B. Toon et al, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics,
University of Colorado, Boulder, April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale
nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” https://eprints.kfupm.edu.sa/107056/1/107056_1.pdf
To an increasing extent, people ...the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Only a unilateral action solves and results in Russian transparency

Should NATO engage Russia as a ...up part of its nuclear potential.
Contention Four is Russian Relations
Tactical nukes preclude US-Russian cooperation—the plan shifts security away from a zero-sum game
Jeff King, Chris Lindborg, Philip Maxon, British American Security Information Council, October 2008, “NATO Nuclear
Despite the underlying post-Cold ...that is critical to global security.

Dr. Andreas Umland, teaches at the Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Upper Bavaria, 2/19/9, “NATO-Russia
War: A Scenario,” http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/nato-russia-war-scenario
A plain extrapolation of recent political ...between two nuclear super-powers.
US-Russian nuclear war causes extinction

Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, Recipient of the Gannon Award, March 2002,
www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html
A much greater existential risk emerged ...destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
Specifically, Russian relations solve Arctic security

Sven G. Holtsmark, Deputy Director at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, and Brooke A. Smith-Windsor,
Canada’s Senior National Representative at the NATO Defense College, May 2009, “Introduction,” in “Security
prospects in the High North: geostrategic thaw or freeze?” ed. Sven G. Holtsmark and Brooke A. Smith-Windsor,
NATO Defense College
More than anything else, Katarzyna ...important signalling effect of exercise scenarios.
Causes conflict
Scott G. Borgerson, International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Lieutenant
Commander in the U.S. Coast Guard, March/April 2008, “Arctic Meltdown,” Foreign Affairs
Despite the melting icecap's potential to ...no clear picture of ownership exists.
That goes nuclear

Rob Huebert, Professor of Political Science/Strategic Studies Program at University of Calgary, 2007, “Canada and the
Circumpolar World: Meeting the Challenges of Cooperation into the Twenty-First Century: A Critique of Chapter 4,”
http://www.carc.org/calgary/a4.htm
The potential for an accidental nuclear ...continue to build the Borei class.
TNW removal restores Russian relations

Alex Bollfrass, Research Assistant for the Nuclear Weapons and International Security Program of the Henry L.
Stimson Center, October 30, 2008, “The US-German Tactical Nuclear Weapons Dilemma,”
http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=703
The incoming administration should take advantage ...over tactical arms as its foundation.
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Contention Five is Solvency
Ending nuclear sharing solve NPT cred, results in Russian TNW transparency, and avoids undermining NATO
cohesion
By making a decision on the ...possibly also by Greece and Turkey.
The mission of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe should be eliminated

Bruce G. Blair, president of the World Security Institute, er al February 2008, “Toward True Security: Ten Steps the
Next President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy,” Report by FAS, NRDC, and UCS
6. The United States should ...this effort contingent on Russian actions.
Plan assuages European concerns about the US

Hans M. Kristensen, Project Director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists,
January 2009, “The Minot Investigations: From Fixing Problems to Nuclear Advocacy,”
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/01/schlesingerreport.php
The TLAM and DCA are weapons ...Nuclear Posture Review can do better.
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Emory Inamullah/Weil (NFU) [DCH]
Obama pushing for UN sanctions

Hall 9/25/09 [KEVIN G. HALL, “Iran faces sanctions, which could include targeting gasoline imports,” Kansas City Star,
Posted on Fri, Sep. 25, 2009 05:29 PM, pg. http://www.kansascity.com/444/story/1470964.html]
The announcement and confirmation Friday that Iran has constructed ... global buy-in, but that could change.
UN sanctions by December needed to prevent Israeli strikes

Groening 9/21/09 [Chad Groening “Frustrated Israel - preparing to strike Iran?,” - OneNewsNow - 9/21/2009 4:00:00
AM, pg. http://www.onenewsnow.com/Security/Default.aspx?id=687474]
A Pentagon advisor and senior military ... very little confidence at this point in Obama."
That risks a great powers war

Trabanco 09 – Independent researcher of geopoltical and military affairs [José Miguel Alonso Trabanco (Degree in
international relations @ Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Studies, Mexico City & frequent contributor to
Global Research), “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime,” Global Research, January 13, 2009,
pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762]
China has become an important buyer of Iranian petroleum ... playing with fire right in the middle of a powder keg.
All life on the planet will be destroyed

Hirsch 06 - Professor of physics @ University of California, San Diego. [Jorge Hirsch, “Israel, Iran and the US: Who
Will be Blamed for Nuclear War?,” Global Research, July 24, 2006, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=va&aid=2807.]
In the end of course we will all lose. Because ... life on planet Earth, comes to an end.
The lack of international consensus for action is forcing the security council to pursue half-assed sanctions ---- this
shatters the credibility and effectiveness of the UN and independently pushed Iran towards nuclearization
Comras ‘7 (Victor, Eren Law Firm, CQ Congressional Testimony, House Financial Services Committee, 4-18, L/N)
Let's be clear. The low-impact sanctions ... pursuing, especially given the high stakes involved.
And, Sanctions key to the UN credibility

AFP 06 [Agence France Presse, “US says UN must act on Iran to uphold credibility,” April 27 (AFP) Apr 28, 2006, pg.
http://www.spacewar.com/2006/060427232302.07kf084k.html]
The United States called Thursday for strong UN action against Iran ... Security Council of course has to act."
Credible UN solves for multiple hotspots

Fréchette 09 - Distinguished fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ont. [Louise
Fréchette (former deputy secretary-general of the United Nations.) “A new America, a new UN?,” From Wednesday's
Globe and Mail Last updated on Thursday, Apr. 09, 2009 11:02PM EDT, pg.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/article968894.ece
Developing countries have been reassured ... should do all it can to help him in this enterprise.
Great power nuclear wars

Dean 95 – Adviser on international security issues for the Union of Concerned Scientists [Dean, Jonathan. (P
articipated in East-West arms control negotiations and worked with U.N. peacekeepers in the field and in the State
Department) “A stronger U.N. strengthens America,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Chicago: Mar 1995. Vol. 51, Iss.
2; pg. 45Ebscohost]
Experts throughout the world ... head off an increasing number of conflicts.
US unilateral concessions on NFU gets Russian coop on Iran

Stanley Foundation 08 [“Evolving Nuclear Realities and US-Russian Relations,” International Nuclear Disarmament
Dialogue The Stanley Foundation April 22, 2008 St. Petersburg, Russia]
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In the manner of the previous unilateral actions of ... nonproliferation and disarmament framework.
NFU key to getting UN sanctions on Iran

Stanley Foundation 09 [“Realizing Nuclear Disarmament,” 40th United Nations Issues Conference, Sponsored by The
Stanley Foundation, February 20-22, 2009]
In 1997, an eminent US National Academies of Science panel ... eventually eliminate nuclear weapons as a threat to
the world.5
US concessions to Russia are key

Migranyan 09 - Director of the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation in New York. [Andranik Migranyan, (Professor
at the Institute of International Relations in Moscow. Member of the Public Chamber and former member of the
Russian Presidential Council.) Moscow’s Iran Connection,” National Interest, 08.13.2009, pg.
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=21982.]
It is imperative that our U.S. partners understand ... and take American concerns into account.
UN sanctions needed to prevent US unilateral sanctions

Kyoto Perspective 9/15/09 [“Bayh urges president to prepare new sanctions against Iran,” Posted: Saturday, August
15, 2009 12:00 am | Updated: 5:09 pm, Tue Sep 15, 2009., pg.
http://www.kokomoperspective.com/news/local_news/article_37b8224a-2193-5e79-b649-414a1318229e.html.]
U.S. Senators Evan Bayh (D-IN), Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Joe Lieberman (ID-CT), and ... Security Council adopts more
stringent multilateral sanctions.
This is necessary to halt their prolif

Kam, 7 [Ephraim Kam, deputy head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, February 2007. “A
Nuclear Iran: What Does it Mean,and What Can be Done,” Institute for National Security Studies, Memorandum 88,
www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf.]
The key factor is the ability to achieve the international cooperation necessary for applying significant and continuous
economic pressure on Iran. Since the Carter administration, the American government has maintained broad
economic sanctions against Iran, beginning in 1979 ....... of Iran’s nuclear program, due to the vulnerability of the
Iranian economy and the implications of economic distress on domestic stability.
Iranian prolif causes global nuclear war and nuclear terrorism

Fingar 08 Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
(Thomas, NIC Report, Global Trands 2025)
A number of states in the region are already thinking about developing ........ weapons capabilities in reaction to an
Iranian capability that countries beyond the region would begin pursuing their own nuclear weapons programs
Extinction
Beres 87, Professor of Political Science and International Law at Purdue University [Louis René, Terrorism and Global
Security: The Nuclear Threat, p. 42-43]
Nuclear terrorism could even spark full-scale war between ........ actual extent of injuries and fatalities, such a war
would entomb the spirit of the entire species in a planetary casket strewn with shorn bodies and imbecile imaginations.
Team Name: Emory IW

Round # 2
vs Team: Wake CaCR
Judge: Mandy Castle
Plan Text
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The United States federal government should adopt a no first use declaratory policy.
1ac w/ cites
NPT and CGS advantages, both on Wiki
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons

CBW add-on – NPT credibility solves effective BWC which solves bioweapon attacks
India Add-on – India models US declaratory policy, Indian NFU solves n. war
Russia add-on – NPT solves US-Russian war, extinction

No first strike CP –
CP maintains ambiguity, means no CGS solvency
CP allows first use vs. bioweapons, means violates NPT, no NPT solvency
CP doesn’t solve commitment trap, ! = no solvency/à attacks
Deterrence –
Retaliation solves
CGS solves
RRW DA –
Obama won’t trade it – Tauscher arg
Plan generates pol cap
Obama has no pol cap

NPT Bad –
Collapse à Breakout
Opaque Prolif Now
International Norms check
Solves nuclear terrorism
1AR Strategy Notes

Doesn’t spend much time on deterrence – spends most time on case/CP
2AR Strategy Notes

Same
POLITICS ANSWERS
Plan boosts capital – 80% of congress likes it
Kitfield and cirincione 2008 “insider interview”
“do you agree with those” “opposite of blowback”
ISRAEL DA ANSWERS
Obama wont let Israel strike

Lake 2009 Washington Times
“prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his top deputies have” “iran out fo the blue”
NFU causes UN to succeed against Iran

Sagan 2009 “the case for no first use”
“a US no-first-use declaration” “it faces nuclear threats”
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That solves Israel strikes

Abrams 2009 “why Israel is nervous”
“to the Israelis this seems” “come to that country”
NUKE ENERGY DA ANSWERS

Non-unique – their card
Squassoni 2009
“enthusiasm for nuclear energy” “still in operation”
Reducing reliance on nuclear weapons decreases the DOE nuclear weapons budget
Ling 2009
“obama particularly highlighted the” “New Mexico, California, Nevada, Tennessee and Idaho”
Nuclaer weapons funding trades-off with funding for nuke power – cuts from the NNSA budget will be funneled into
nuclear energy programs
Munger 2009
“I’d been trying unsuccessfully” “because that is the $64”
NORTH KOREA DA ANSWERS
NFU key to successful 6 Party talks Grand Bargain

Kyong-soo 9/30
“North Korea has so far” “during the Cold War”
North korea wants a security assurance from the US

Abramowitz and Laney 2003
“Pyongyang’s apparent desire for” “was little in doubt”
We establish clear red lines that solve

ICG 2009
“there needs to be a” “non-nuclear military means”
No premeditated attack form DPRK

Ramberg 2009
“of the challenged presented by a” “Korea for decades”
Kim wont give up the bomb

Bush 2009
“third, Norht Korea is in” “his succession plan”
Long range strike capability solves prolif – can attack nu clear facitlies worldwide in minutes
Bryan D. Watts 5 “Long-Range Strike: Imperatives, Urgency and Options”
The eventual emergence of a hostile China armed…could be moved or hidden.
Hedging encourages allies to call our bluff – US will be pressured into escalation
Butfoy 8 “Washington’s Apparent Readiness to Start Nuclear War”
Many critics believe that the first-use option…to be a high priority.
The exemption does solve global strikes adv Miller 2 “The Utility of Nuclear Weapons and the Strategy of No-First-
Use”
Exercises and training. Militaries, goes the old aphorism…in the calculations of military commanders.
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NEW CHINA ADVANTAGE--
US first use policy will force China to modify its NFU pledge and
develop mobile nukes. US restraint is key to reestablishing strategic
stability
Chase et al 09 – Professor in the Strategy and Policy Department @
Naval War College [Michael S. Chase, Andrew S. Erickson (Professor in
the Strategic Research Department @e U.S. Naval War College),
Christopher Yeaw (Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research
Department at the U.S. Naval War College), “The Future of Chinese
Deterrence Strategy,” The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief Volume: 9
Issue: 5, March 4, 2009 04:34 PM pg.
http://www.jamestown.org/ programs/chinabrief/single/? tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34661& tx_ttnews%5BbackPid
%5D=25& cHash=8df75e4936.]
Newly available Chinese language publications ...shared interests in

regional security and strategic stability.
Mobile nukes risks accidental and miscalculated nuclear wars. US NFU

removes this threat and encourages China to remain within the confines
of its current NFU pledge
Lewis 09 - Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation
Initiative @ New America Foundation [Jeffrey Lewis (Former executive
director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center for
Science and International Affairs. Ph.D. in policy studies
(international security and economic policy) from the University of
Maryland), “Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force Modernization,” Engaging
China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament, Editors: Cristina Hansell and
William C. Potter, Occasional Paper No. 15, April 2009]
In the United States, we tend to think about two implications that

will arise from China’s deployment of new mobile ... reduce the
possibility of accidents, miscalculations, or misunderstandings. Pg.
45-46
AND, changes to the PRC NFU pledge results in nuclear war and destroys
cooperation in the interim
Pan 05 - Professor of International Relations @ National Defence
University of the People's Liberation Army of China, Beijing [Pan
Zhenqiang (Retired Major General of the People's Liberation Army)
“China Insistence on No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons,” China Security,
2005, Issue 1, pg.
http://www.chinasecurity.us/ index.php?option=com_content& view=article&id=258&Itemid=8.]
Second, if the NFU rationale is to be changed or even vaguely modified

...accidental, inadvertent or unauthorized launches on either side.
Clearly, none of these are in the best interest of China.
US-China war triggers multiple other wars in Asia and the Mideast. No
US ally will be left unpunished
Korea Times 00 [“Hearts and Minds Taiwan Will Surely Hatch A US-China
War,” March 17, 2000, Friday, pg. ln]
As for a war between Beijing and Washington, although the

circumstances ...severely damaging price at the end.
Even without alteration to China’s NFU, US first strike threat hinders

cooperation. It is the litmus test
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Saalman 09 – Ph.D. candidate in International Relations @ Tsinghua

University [Lora Saalman (Former research associate at the Wisconsin
Project on Nuclear Arms Control and Former graduate research assistant
at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.), “How
Chinese Analysts View Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nuclear
Deterrence after the Cold War,” Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear
Disarmament, Editors: Cristina Hansell and William C. Potter,
Occasional Paper No. 15, April 2009]
U.S. Nuclear Posture Review - The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review

...unexpected contingencies.77 pg. 57
Nuclear tensions will destabilize broader US-China relations

Saunders 09 - Senior research professor @ National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies
[Phillip C. Saunders, “Managing Strategic Competition with China,” Strategic Forum, No. 242, July 2009]
The dynamics of U.S.-China strate¬gic competition in areas such...particular strategic domains is likely to be an
enduring policy tension. Pg. 8
Cooperation is key to the global expansion of nuclear power and

halting climate change
Lyman 09 - Co-director of the Energy, Environment and Economics
Program @ Atlantic Council [John R. Lyman, “On Nuclear Power: An
Opportunity for Fostering Sustainable Energy Security,” Based on the
Dialogue Sponsored by the Atlantic Council and the U.S./China Energy
and Environment Technology Center, The Atlantic Council, Washington,
DC March 4-6, 2009]
The time for debate about the winners and losers in the supply of
energy is over. ... burgeoning nuclear trade between the two
countries. Pg. 31-32
Nuclear power is the only practical solution to this coming crisis

Eerkens 08 - Research Professor @ Nuclear Science and Engineering
Institute, University of Missouri [Jeff W. Eerkens (MS degree in
Nuclear Engineering and a PhD in Engineering Science from the
University of California at Berkeley.), “Nuclear and Coal: The Energy
'Dream Team' for Years to Come,” Seeking Alpha, December 14, 2008, Pg.
http://seekingalpha.com/user/ 319497/comments]
Green nuclear power is the only practical solution to simultaneously

...sightedness and follies of prior administrations. 1ac
Energy shortages risks mass starvation. 95% of the population will die-off
Lundberg 05 [Jan Lundberg, “End-Time for U.S.A. Upon Oil Collapse - A
scenario for a sustainable future,” Culture Change, Published Jun 17
2005, pg. http://www.energybulletin.net/ node/6933.]
There is no Plan B for coping with a terminal oil shock to the

economy...And petroleum is how food is grown, distributed, packaged
and prepared.
Our very existence hangs in the balance

Tickell ‘8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C
hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, 8-11,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/ commentisfree/2008/aug/11/ climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson
told the Guardian last week. ... warming caused by human emissions
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could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.
1% risk of the impact outweighs their DAs

Strom in ‘7 - Prof. Emeritus Planetary Sciences @ U. Arizona (Robert,
Prof. Emeritus Planetary Sciences @ U. Arizona and Former Dir. Space
Imagery Center of NASA, “Hot House: Global Climate Change and the
Human Condition”, Online: SpringerLink, p. 246)
Keep in mind that the current consequences of global warming ...The

time for action is now.
All other efforts are futile without US-China cooperation

Hachigian et al 08 - Senior Vice President @ Center for American
Progress [Nina Hachigian (Former Senior Political Scientist at RAND
Corporation and Former director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific
Policy), Michael Schiffer (Program officer in Policy Analysis and
Dialogue @ Stanley Foundation) & Winny Chen ( Research Associate for
the National Security and International Policy Team @ Center for
American Progress) A Global Imperative: A Progressive Approach to
U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century, Center for American
Progress, August 2008]
Without the full engagement of both countries...cumulative emissions

over the past century. Pg. 27
NFU removes the motive for China’s nuke modernization and paves the
way for long-term cooperation
Yuan 09 – Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program @ James
Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies [Jing-dong Yuan (Professor
of international policy studies @ Monterey Institute of International
Studies & Ph.D. in political science from Queen’s University), “China
and the Nuclear-Free World,” Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear
Disarmament, Editors: Cristina Hansell and William C. Potter,
Occasional Paper No. 15, April 2009]
China’s support of an FMCT and its ratification of the CTBT would

largely ...multipolar world for both China and the United States. Pg.
35-36
Now is the key time. Obama has a short window of opportunity before
he locks in our impact scenarios
Hansell & Perfilyev 09 - Director of the Newly Independent States
Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies & Fulbright fellow at the Monterey Institute
of International Studies [Cristina Hansell and Nikita Perfilyev,
“Strategic Relations between the United States, Russia, and China and
the Possibility of Cooperation on Disarmament,” ,” Engaging China and
Russia on Nuclear Disarmament, Editors: Cristina Hansell and William
C. Potter, Occasional Paper No. 15, April 2009]
The current opportunity to improve U.S.-Russian, U.S.-Chinese, ...

control, the nuclear nonproliferation regime itself will be
endangered. Pg. 148
2AC WEAPONITIS--
IR predictions are feasible and effects

Chernoff 2005 “The power of international theory: reforging the link to foreign policy making through scientific enquiry,”
157-9
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“in the social sciences the” … “international stability from each scenario”
Root cause isn’t offense—we can still solve something—no root causes –violence is proximately caused
Curtler 1997 “rediscovering values: coming to terms with postnmodernism” 164-5
“at the same time, we” “problems with postmodernism, however.”
Structural violence is down

Russettt et al 2006 International studies quartlerly, 50:3, “the declining risk of death in battle,”
“the correlates of war (COW)” “the end of the cold war”
Arms control creates momentum for peace

Knopf 1997 “Coalitions and political movements: the lessons of the nuclear freeze,” 157-8
“The anti-nuclear weapons movement” … “the end of the cold war”
Arms can create a war risk by justifying internvention which their authors concede
Mayer 1992 “review: avoiding nuclear war” 12:1 JSTOR
“the nuclear seduction, a” … “movement as they claim”
The alt fails
Robinowitch 1971
“stoning of America” bulletin of the atomic scientists 27:9
“this appeared to many” … “ real and important improvement”
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 2 (Aff vs. Texas Dallas)

North Korea Counterplan 2AC
NFU key to successful 6 party talks

Kyong-soo – 9/30 – joongang daily
“north korea has so far kept silent on” and “military power during the cold war”
No escalation – us and sk would crush the threat

VOA News – 7-14-09
“a senior U.S. military commander says” and “towards targets in the south”
doesn’t solve global strikes adv

miller 02
“exercises and training” and “calculations of military commanders”
cp must be unequivocal
butfoy 01
“threats of first-use obviously” and “that nuclear threats have utility”
formal agreements are time consuming

karchner and pitman 02
“furthermore, prospective parties to an” and “Russian nuclear weapons”
other non nuclear states will demand participation in the consultation

process – this causes a long tf
berry 09
“some of these states might wish” and “signature by all states”
this collapses the revcon

Johnson 09, arms control today
“in multilateral diplomacy, the agenda is” and “2000 review conference”
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QPQs with nuclear states pisses off the NAM – they resent being excluded
Choubey 08
“such quid pro quo bargains are going nowhere” and “for future bargains”
GSU Intel
GSU Aff Disclosure
PLAN: The United States federal government should adopt a no first use pledge.
2010 NPT Review Conference will fail without No-First-Use

Raghavan 09 – Director of the Delhi Policy Group and President of the Centre for Security Analysis, Chennai. [V. R.
Raghavan (Council member of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Adviser to the International Commission
on Nuclear Non-Proliferation & Disarmament, Former commissioner of the UN Weapons of Mass Destruction
Commission, and Visiting fellow at CISAC, Stanford University and the Henry L. Stimson Center), “Nuclear Abolition:
Need for a Phased Plan,” Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: a debate, Edited By: George Perkovich and James M. Acton,
Adelphi Paper 396, 2009]
This fine paper combines political and technical aspects that are immediately feasible ... as important as the assurance
the paper recommends that the United States give its allies. Pg. 268-269
NPT 1AC 2/13
History is on our side.

Bunn & du Preez 07 - First general counsel @ U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency & Director of the
International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program @ Monterey Institute of International Studies. [George Bunn
(Helped negotiate the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and later became U.S. ambassador to the Conference on
Disarmament) & Jean du Preez, “More Than Words: The Value of U.S. Non-Nuclear-Use Promises,” Arms Control
Today, July/August 2007, pg. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_07-08/NonUse]
The Bush administration in various ways has said that it is not bound to refrain from the use of ...non-nuclear-weapon
states. To build confidence in its nuclear intentions, it should allow the conference to establish a mechanism to
consider ways to provide legally binding NSAs. In this regard, a new administration could consider several options. 1ac
NPT 1AC 3/13
Failed RevCon risks a chain reaction of defections

Carranza 06 - Professor of Political Science @ Texas A & M University, Kingsville [MARIO E. CARRANZA, “Can the
NPT Survive? The Theory and Practice of US Nuclear Non-proliferation Policy after September 11,” Contemporary
Security Policy, Vol.27, No.3 (December 2006), pp.489–525]
A World Without the NPT? - If present trends continue, the nuclear non-proliferation regime risks being turned ... in
Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and North Korea and by the discovery of undisclosed – suspicious – nuclear activities in
Iran.Pg. 509-510
NPT 1AC 4/13
Over 40 countries could quickly breakout. Strong NPT prevents

Rublee 08 - Professor of Government and World Affairs @ University of Tampa [Maria Rost Rublee, “Taking Stock of
the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: Using Social Psychology to Understand Regime Effectiveness,” International
Studies Review, 22 Aug 2008, Volume 10, Issue 3, Pages 420-450WileyInterScience]
However, I would argue that before the United States (or any other country) gives up on the NPT and associated
nuclear nonproliferation regime, we should take full account of not only the regime's failures, but also its successes.
Indeed, the success ... ... distinct mechanisms. Without the NPT, those mechanisms fall apart. It is to this social
environment and the "influence" mechanisms fostered by it that the papers turns to next.
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NPT 1AC 6/13
NPT prevents runaway global proliferation

Dunn 09 – Senior vice president of Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) [Lewis A. Dunn (Former assistant
the Reagan administration), “THE NPT: Assessing the Past, Building the Future,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No.
2, July 2009]
Metric: Does NPT adherence provide a leverage point for outside influence and action to prevent proliferation?
NPT adherence clearly provides a point of leverage, although the nature of that leverage - and its likely
effectiveness ... adherence to Article II still provides a potentially valuable means to counter renewed fears of such a
world - assuming there is compliance with NPT obligations. Pg. 149-151
NPT 1AC 7/13
Nuclear latency poses a unique risk. Rapid prolif risks nuclear war.
Horowitz 09 – Professor of Political Science @ University of Pennsylvania [Michael Horowitz (Former Emory debater
and NDT Champion), “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?,” Journal
of Conflict Resolution, Volume 53 Number 2, April 2009 pg. 234-257]
Learning as states gain experience with nuclear weapons is complicated. While to some extent, nuclear acquisition
might provide information about resolve or capabilities, it also generates ...about the trajectory of a war, the balance of
power, and the preferences of the adopter. Pg. 237-239 1ac
*A/T – Conventional war turn – Poorly select adversaries that will mliltarize disputes
NPT 1AC 8/13

Cimbala 08 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala,
“Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008,
pages 113 – 132Informaworld]
The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents a complicated mosaic of possibilities in this regard. States ... or allied
Western concepts might be inaccurate guides to the avoidance of war outside of Europe.19
NPT 1AC 9/13
Prolif transforms ongoing disputes into shooting wars.

Sobek et al 09 – Professor of Political Science @ Louisiana State University [David Sobek, Dennis M. Foster
(Professor of International Studies and Political Science @ Virginia Military Institute) & Samuel B. Robison (Ph.D.
Candidate in Political Science @ Louisiana State University) “Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear
Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945-2001,” Prepared for presentation at the 2009 Midwest Political Science
Association Meeting, Chicago. 2009-05-22, pg. http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p362138_index.html]
At the active pursuit stage, one can assume that previous efforts to dissuade proliferators have been unsuccessful and
that acquisition is much more likely to become a r... both non-proliferators and nuclear “explorers.” Hypothesis 1b:
States that are actively pursuing nuclear weapons are more at risk of being targeted in a conventional militarized
dispute than exploring and non-proliferating states.
A/T: Nukes deter conventional war
They will escalate to great power nuclear wars

Below 08 – Wing Commander for the Royal Air Force [TIM D. Q. BELOW (Master of Arts degree in Defence Studies
from Kings College London), “OPTIONS FOR US NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: EXEMPLARY LEADERSHIP OR
EXTRAORDINARY LUNACY?,” A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIR
AND SPACE STUDIES FOR COMPLETION OF GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS, AIR UNIVERSITY MAXWELL AIR
FORCE BASE, ALABAMA, JUNE 2008]
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Proliferation. Roger Molander, of RAND Corporation, asserts that “in the near future, a large number of countries are
each going to develop a small number of nuclear weapons.”50 The Union of Concerned Scientists considers this to be
the greatest ... far removed from the objectives of the proliferating nations, and in the United States’ specific case, a
risk that the nation could get sucked into a conventional regional conflict which is subsequently escalated into nuclear
warfare by its allies or their opponents.54
NPT 1AC 10/13
Toon et al 07 – Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences @ University of Colorado [Owen B. Toon, Alan
Robock (Professor of Environmental Sciences @ Rutgers University), Richard P. Turco (Professor of Atmospheric and
Oceanic Sciences @ UCLA, Charles Bardeen (Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences @ University of
Colorado), Luke Oman (Professor of of Earth and Planetary Sciences @ Johns Hopkins University), Georgiy L.
Stenchikov (Professor of Environmental Sciences @ Rutgers University), “NUCLEAR WAR: Consequences of
Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts,” Science, 2 March 2007, Vol. 315. no. 5816, pp. 1224 – 1225]
The world may no longer face a serious threat of global nuclear warfare, but regional conflicts continue. Within this
milieu, acquiring nuclear weapons has been considered a potent ...political instability, and urban demographics may
constitute one of the greatest dangers to the stability of society since the dawn of humans.
NPT 1AC 11/13
NFU strengthens anti-proliferation norms.

Civiak 09 – Consultant in Nuclear Weapons Policy w/ Ph.D. in physics from the University of Pittsburgh [Robert L.
Civiak (Former Specialist in Energy Technology in the Science Policy Division of the Congressional Research Service
(10 years) & Former Program and Budget Examiner with the Office of Management and Budget, primary responsible
for oversight of the Department of Energy’s stewardship of the nuclear weapons stockpile (11 years)), Transforming
the U.S. Strategic Posture and Weapons Complex: for Transition to a Nuclear Weapons-Free World, Prepared by the
Nuclear Weapons Complex Consolidation (NWCC) Policy Network, April 2009]
In the near term, it is unlikely that we can eliminate the risk that more nations will acquire nuclear weapons. However,
the assertive use of nuclear threats—as was the policy of the Bush ...weapons by others. The Department of Defense
and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) should structure U.S. nuclear forces and the weapons
complex accordingly. Pg. 24-25 1ac
NPT 1AC 12/13
Changing US nuclear posture is key to sustain cooperation needed to halt prolif

Hanson 05 – Reader in International Relations @ University of Queensland, Australia [MARIANNE HANSON (Director
of the Rotary Centre for International Studies in Peace and Conflict Resolution @ University of Queensland, Former
Lecturer in Politics @ Oxford University, Former Visiting Scholar of International Relations @ University of British
Columbia, and a Former Visiting Fellow of International Politics @ University of Wales) “The future of the NPT,”
Australian Journal of International Affairs Vol. 59, No. 3,pp. 301_/316, September 2005]
Also obvious at the 2005 Review Conference was a deep sense of unease over the direction and nature of US security
... inability is due largely to the actions (or inactions) of key players in the international system. Pg. 308-311
NPT 1AC 13/13
US action changes the decision calculus of potential proliferants

Drell & Goodby 08 - Professor of physics @ Stanford University & Research fellow @ Hoover Institution [Sidney Drell
(Senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution). & James Goodby (senior fellow at the Brookings Institution), “The
Reality: A Goal of a World without Nuclear Weapons Is Essential,” The Washington Quarterly, Volume 31, Number 3,
Summer 2008 pg. ProjectMuse]
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Being caught in the nuclear deterrence trap at present levels of nuclear weapons is not a safe ... by nuclear-armed
superpowers, as it was during the Cold War.
----The list of first use missions is expanding. It creates multiple scenarios for nuclear preemption
Butfoy 08 – Senior Lecturer in International Relations @ Monash University, Melbourne, Australia [Andy Butfoy,
“Washington's Apparent Readiness to Start Nuclear War,” Survival | vol. 50 no. 5 | October–November 2008 | pp. 115–
140]
Contextual issues - A study of the opinions of non-US nationals notes: ‘other countries view U.S. nuclear policy
through the lens of an overall perception of U.S. foreign and ...however, calculated ambiguity can seem to be a far
more unsettling – even menacing – policy than perhaps its proponents intend. Pg. 128-132
Preemption 1AC
Obama is maintaining nuclear attacks as an option – that could raise expectations that lead to actual usage
Gerson, 7 [Joseph, Director of Programs of the American Friends Service Committee's New England Regional Office,
Peace News, 8/16, “The Obama-Clinton Nuclear Madness”, http://www.peacenews.info/news/article/406]
I was in Hiroshima, participating in the World Conference against Atomic and Hydrogen... driving nuclear weapons
proliferation, which in turn, further increased the dangers of nuclear war.
Preemption 1AC
Obama will not adopt NFU

Butfoy 08 – Senior Lecturer in International Relations @ Monash University, Melbourne, Australia [Andy Butfoy,
“Washington's Apparent Readiness to Start Nuclear War,” Survival | vol. 50 no. 5 | October–November 2008 | pp. 115–
140]
To be sure, many informed observers found the fuss surrounding Washington’s supposed nuclear recklessness almost
routine, and reminiscent of previous... institutionalised in Washington, but the incoming administration will likely
continue to face the sort of strategic challenges that have persistently held the United States back from ruling out first-
use options.9 pg. 116-117
Preemption 1AC
First use threats erodes the nuclear firebreak without improving our deterrence – this makes nuclear war possible
However, the Bush Administration’s approach does break dramatically from US Cold War policy by ... US nuclear
posture in a qualitatively more aggressive stance, carrying with it significant practical and ethical consequences. Pg.
51-53
Preemption 1AC
First strike threats will force adversaries to preemptively strike before the US can
Glaser & Fetter 05 - Professor of Public Policy w/ a focus on security and defense policy @ University of Chicago &
Professor of Public Policy w/ a focus on nuclear arms control and nonproliferation @ University of Maryland. [Charles
L. Glaser (Deputy Dean of the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago) &
Steve Fetter (Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland), “Counterforce Revisited: Assessing
the Nuclear Posture Review's New Missions,” International Security 30.2 (2005) 84-126Project Muse]
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A state with vulnerable nuclear weapons might also have some incentive to use them early in a crisis or conventional
war. An adversary that plans to rely on limited nuclear attacks to...could result in extensive collateral damage with
large humanitarian costs. And as noted above, this otherwise avoidable use of nuclear weapons would likely weaken
the nuclear taboo and damage the United States' international reputation.
Preemption 1AC
US NFU is modelled
Feiveson & Hogendoorn 03 - Co-director & Research Asst. in the Program on Science and Global Security @
Princeton University [Harold A. Feiveson (Senior research scientist @ Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University)
& Ernst Jan Hogendoorn, “No First Use of Nuclear Weapons,” The Nonproliferation Review, Summer 2003]
But for declaratory policies more generally (considering first the United States alone), in our view, the simplest, most
direct, and most powerful approach is an unambiguous U.S. commitment not to use nuclear weapons first under any
circumstances. The present ... In the case of a no-first-use pledge, a unilateral declaration by the United States would
greatly increase pressure on other nuclear weapons states also to commit to no first use of nuclear weapons. Pg. 8//
1ac
NFU Prevents conflicts from escalating to nuclear levels

Guangkian, 9 [Peng and Rong yu, Peng Guangqian is editor-in-chief of Strategic Sciences and has long been engaged
in research on military strategy and international affairs. Rong Yu is a Ph. D. candidate at the Institute of International
Strategy and Development, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, China Security, Vol. 5 No.
1 Winter 2009, pp. 78-87, World Security Institute, http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Peng_and_Rong.pdf]
In crisis situations, both first-use and NFU policies are highly problematic. However, NFU policy is more... escalation is
much smaller and the destructive power of wars will be under control.
Preemption 1AC
INDIA/PAKISTAN, RUSSIAN AGGRESSION, NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION, ISRAEL-IRAN WAR,

AND BIOWEAPON USE ALL BECOME INEVITABLE ABSENT A PLEDGE OF NUCLEAR NON-FIRST USE
Hitchens 3 [Theresa, Vice President, Center for Defense Information Presented at a conference on U.S. NUCLEAR
POLICY AND COUNTERPROLIFERATION, http://www.cdi.org/nuclear /counterproliferation-conference.cfm]
During most of the Cold War and in the immediate aftermath of Soviet Union's collapse, ... up the treaty itself, which,
despite Republican bashing, has been fairly successful in limiting the number of nuclear states.
Preemption 1AC
A no first use policy solves global nuclear attacks

Grossman 07 [Jerome, the Chairman Emeritus of the Council for a Livable World in Washington, Washington Post
Writers Group. “U.S. should promise no first use of nukes”, 6/15,
http://www.cjonline.com/stories/061507/opi_177295240.shtml]
When American military officials and politicians are asked about relations with Iran and North Korea, too ... as the
United States is today. It is time to match our pious words with pious actions and take the nuclear option off the table
by declaring a "No First Use" policy.
The Impact is extinction

Lopez, 8 [Bernardo V., “UPSHOT; Nuclear psywar”, Business World, 7/18, Lexis]
With the proliferation of nuclear missiles, t... the damage of a first strike but simply add to it, the essence of the war
without winners.
PGS Adv
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Advantage _: Global Strike
Nukes are the focus of the Global Strike Command. They are perceived as the weapon of choice
Grossman 09 [Elaine M. Grossman, “New U.S. Global Strike Command to Juggle Nuclear, Conventional Missions,”
Global Security Newswire, Monday, April 27, 2009, pg.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. Air Force leaders say nuclear …conventional strike missions taking a back seat, he said.
This nuclear emphasis is part of an antiquated deterrence model that is no longer credible
Chilton 08 – Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command @ United States Air Force [Kevin P. Chilton, “FISCAL 2009
BUDGET: U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE,” Committee on House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces,
CQ Congressional Testimony, February 27, 2008 Wednesday, pg. l/n]
During the Cold War, the US model for deterrence … emphasis on a near-term solution to fill a gap that exists today.
Nuclear ambiguity exacerbates the problem. It makes deterrence impossible.

Kristensen 07 – Project Director for the Nuclear Information Project @ Federation of American Scientists [Hans M.
Kristensen (Former Special Advisor to the Danish Defence Commission and Former Senior Researcher @Nautilus
Institute), “U.S. STRATEGIC WAR PLANNING AFTER 9/11,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, July 2007]
The New Triad has been sold on the presumption … especially if the target includes both soft and deeply buried
hardened time-urgent targets.
Nukes are inadequate. Only a shift to conventional global strike deters contemporary adversaries
Kerber & Stein 09 – Co-Chairs of the Defense Science Board [Dr. Ronald Kerber (Visiting Professor at Darden
Business School at the University of Virginia and Masters and Doctorate degrees in engineering science from
California Institute of Technology) & Dr. Robert Stein (Raytheon's Director of Advanced Programs), “Time Critical
Conventional Strike from Strategic Standoff,” Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force, Office of the Under
Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, March 2009]
The U.S. strategic deterrence and strike environment has changed … effectively providing national leadership with a
prompt global strike option.
CGS is key. It strengthens alliances and deters adversaries

Flory 06 - Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy [Mr. Peter C. W. Flory (Principal advisor to
the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and the Secretary of Defense on issues that relate to nonproliferation and
counterproliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons), “Global Strike Issues,” The Senate Armed Services
Committee, Strategic Forces Subcommittee Hearing, 16 March 2006, pg.
www.dod.mil/dodgc/olc/docs/TestFlory060316.doc]
During the Cold War, the main challenge facing the United States ... dissuade potential adversaries from investing in
capabilities to challenge the United States, and help deter aggression.
CGS prevents erosion of US power projection and credibility

Ochmanek & Schwartz 08 - Senior defense analyst & International Policy Analyst @ RAND Corporation [David
Ochmanek (Foreign Service of the United States (80 to 85), An officer in the United States Air Force (73 to 78) and
Master of Public Affairs degree from Princeton University) & Lowell H. Schwartz (Ph.D. candidate in War Studies @
King's College London and M.A. in international affairs @ Johns Hopkins University), The Challenge of Nuclear-armed
Regional Adversaries, 2008]
None of the analysis laid out here suggests …, they would have dangerous escalatory potential.
The impact is a global power vacuum that risks of great power wars.
Thayer 06 – Professor of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University [Bradley A. Thayer, “In Defense
of Primacy,” The National Interest, 11.10.2006, pg. http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=13020]
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A grand strategy based on American primacy means …. … Let’s face it: for the time being, American primacy remains
humanity’s only practical hope of solving the world’s ills.
And, Heg collapse causes wars in every region of the world.

Kagan 07 – Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert Kagan (Senior transatlantic
fellow at the German Marshall Fund), “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review, August & September 2007,
pg. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html]
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations …American influence and global involvement will
provide an easier path.
NFU forces the Global Strike Command to adopt conventional strike posture
The Stanley Foundation 08 [“US Nuclear Weapons Doctrine: Can We Adopt No First Use?” Policy Dialogue Brief, April
4, 2008]
Throughout the Cold War, the United States reserved the right to … options in war plans simply because they need a
mission for weapons they already have. Pg. 2
NFU is key to a successful CGS roll-out and solves international opposition

Randorf 00 – Graduate of the US Army War College [JEFFREY ALLEN RANDORF, “CONVENTIONAL
INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES - NEW WEAPON, NEW WORLD,” U.S. Army War College, Strategy
Research Project, 7 April 2000, pg. handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA378081]
To take advantage of the CBM, one needs them … rockets flying into space at random times from random places with
no notice. Time will tell if this new world arrives. Pg. 18
*CBM = conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile
Conventional upgrades sustain US global military leadership

Horowitz & Shalmon 09 - Professor of Political Science @ University of Pennsylvania & Senior Analyst @ Lincoln
Group, LLC. [Michael C. Horowitz and Dan A. Shalmon, “The Future of War and American Military Strategy,” Orbis,
Spring 2009]
Hedging will be the optimal strategy for the U.S. military … the United States can ensure that it remains the leading
global military power not only for this generation, but also for the next, as well. Pg. 315-318
CGS is not enough. NFU is key to sending the proper signal about the role of the program
Gormley 06 - Senior Fellow @ Monterey Institute’s Center for Nonproliferation Studies [Dennis M. Gormley (Professor
of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh., “Securing Nuclear Obsolescence,” Survival | vol. 48
no. 3 | Autumn 2006 | pp. 127–148]
Instead of building modernised nuclear weapons for …establishing near-exclusive reliance on robust conventional
forces will be key to that policy’s utility.
NFU is key to alter risk caculations. Adversaries will be forced to account for our conventional assets
DFI International 01 [“Non-Nuclear Strategic Deterrence of State and Non-State Adversaries: Potential Approaches
and Prospects for Success,” A Study for The Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts
Office, FINAL REPORT, October 2001, pg. handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA459871]
Alternatively, the US could explicitly exclude …deterrence strategy than not addressing nuclear weapons at all.
Japanese prolif answers
No impact to Japan prolif

White 8 “A nuclear japan: the least bad option?”
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However, it is also fair to say that I weigh some of the factors…accommodating India as a nuclear-armed country.
DPJ likes the plan

Cirincione 8-10
“The Pendagon’s Nuclear Posture Landmine”
This last theme is particularly insidious…attack countries without nuclear capability.
Japanese prolif not cause more prolif

Halperin 99 “The Nuclear Dimension of the U.S.-Japan Alliance”
U.S. policy continues to be premised on the assumption…move to develop nuclear weapons.
Zero chance
Yokota 9 “why Japan won’t go nuclear” newsweek
North Korea’s recent nuclear test has spawned…against North Korea’s launchpads.
IAEA built japan’s plants – impossible for them to get weapons

Avery 9 “Japan’s nuclear future: policy debate, prospects, and U.S. interests”
However, the ability to develop a few nuclear weapons…ideal for military use, in compliance with Japanese law.
Jack the nuclear power industry – never do it

Mochizuki 7 “Japan tests the nuclear taboo”
If Japan wanted to move toward the development…reliable sources of natural uranium.
Develops non-nuclear responses

Mochizuki above
There is now a potential for at least partial…such a change is requested by the United States.
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George Washington Sommers/Tan (NFU) [DCH]
GSU AFF Disclosure

NFU 1AC Outline for Opponents
1AC Tentative Outline
Despite the end of the Cold War – the United States still clings to its policy of nuclear
first use Sagan 9
Text: The United State federal government should adopt a policy of No First Use
The preservation of the U.S. first strike option determines the Chinese nuclear force
structure – it drives them to modernization FAS 9
Chinese modernization creates an overly aggressive PLA which collapses loyalty to the
CCP and triggers regime collapse Krawitz 3
The impact is global nuclear war Epoch Times 5
Chinese modernization triggers Japan rearm Saunders & Yuan 2k
Global nuclear war Richardson 6
Chinese modernization leads to adventurism and miscalculation in Asia Krawitz 3
The impact is global nuclear war Landay 2k
A unilateral declaration of no-first use solves Chinese modernization and precludes
their aggressive modernization Arbatov 8
China is on the brink of rolling back its no-first-use pledge Zhenqiang 5
Maintenance of our doctrine of nuclear pre-emption will force rollback NTI 3
Rollback of China’s No-First-Use policy will result in an accidental nuclear launch that
escalates to a Sino-US conflict Zhenqiang 5
The impact is extinction Straits Times 2k
Even if China doesn’t explicitly roll back their no-first-use policy – United States first use
ensures a nuclear exchange Zhang 8
A unilateral declaration of no first use would ease tensions and prevent nuclear
exchange Berry 9
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Georgia Cambre/Lacy (NFU) [DCH]
No Specific Target - 2AC

We meet role
International Security and Cooperation, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 3, June–July,
In his 5 April 2009 speech in Prague, US President … but also in their national interests.
Counter-interpretation – missions are specific tasks – here’s a list

Oelrich 5 (Ivan, Vice President for Strategic Security Programs – Federation of American Scientists, “Missions for
Nuclear Weapons after the Cold War”, FAS Occasional Paper 3, January,
http://www.fas.org/resource/01282005175922.pdf)
Defining Nuclear Missions This study does not set out to promote …shock to terminate a regional conventional war
--Substantially means specified to a large degree

Arkush 2 (David, JD Candidate – Harvard University, “Preserving "Catalyst" Attorneys' Fees Under the Freedom of
Information Act in the Wake of Buckhannon Board and Care Home v. West Virginia Department of Health and Human
Resources”, Harvard Civil Rights-Civil Liberties Law Review, Winter,
37 Harv. C.R.-C.L. L. Rev. 131)
Plaintiffs should argue that the term "substantially …amount, quantity or dimensions"). 101
--Restrict means to confine – NOT prohibit

Words and Phrases 7 (37A W&P, p. 406)
Miss. 1927. To “restrict” is to restrain within bounds; to limit; to confine, and does not mean to destroy or prohibit.—
Dart v. City of Gulfport, 113 So. 441, 147 Miss. 534
--Topic education – country-specific change is the heart of contemporary nuclear policy
Woolf 8 (Amy, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy – Congressional Research Service, “Nuclear Weapons in U.S.
National Security Policy: Past, Present, and Prospects”, CRS Report, 12-30,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34226.pdf)
The Bush Administration has outlined a strategy of “tailored … the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security
strategy.
Modernization/MIRV Advantage:
Recent evidence shows China is modernizing its nuclear force in posture and technological developments – US signs
of restraint are key to prevent the development of the DF-31A
Chase 9 (Dr. Michael S., Assistant Professor in the Strategy and Policy Department – Naval War College, et al., “The
Future of Chinese Deterrence Strategy”, China Brief, 9(5), 3-4, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ chinabrief/single/?
tx_ttnews[tt_news]=34661&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=8df75e4936)
The development of China’s nuclear and conventional …similarly realistic understanding of U.S. views and
motivations.
And, China has the capability to modernize – MIRV development will be rapid
Chase 9 (Dr. Michael S., Assistant Professor in the Strategy and Policy Department – Naval War College, et al.,
“Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the United States,” Journal of
Strategic Studies, Vol. 23, Iss. 1, Feb., http://www.informaworld.com.proxy-remote.galib.uga.edu/smpp/section?
content=a908916446&fulltext=713240928)
This section presents an overview of China's evolving … to believe that China will do so, however, and perhaps quite
soon.38
Technological restraints are irrelevant – China has MIRV technology

Schaffer 2 (Bob, Senator – Colorado, “CHINA'S LONG-RANGE MISSILE PROGRAM,” 2-28,
http://ftp.fas.org/irp/congress/2002_cr/h022802.html)
One point is how China's program for multiple … information about China's ballistic missile threat.
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Possibility of US first strike is the largest driver of overall modernization

Oelrich 9 (Ivan, vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists, “Ending
Nuclear Counterforce,” 4-13, http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/04/ending-nuclear-counterforce.php)
Even so, if the benefits could be potentially huge, then even … to a level that it would have otherwise hoped to get to
through a first strike.
Threat of first strike has created a new round of arms competition – modernization is becoming rapid and destabilizing
Zhenquiang 9 (Pan, retired Major General and Deputy Chairman – China Foundation for International Studies,
“Nuclear Weapons in a Changing Security Environment in North East Asia,” A Background Paper for the ICNND, 5-12)
The United States has been the primary driver …of numbers of nuclear weapons in isolation
Only a No First Use pledge to China stops the arms race – reciprocity is key
Glaser 8 (Bonnie, senior fellow with the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, “Conference on “U.S.-China Strategic
Nuclear Dynamics”: Introduction and Key Findings,” co-organized by CSIS, IDA, RAND, and CFISS, 6-10,
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081015_intro_and_key_findings.pdf)
China’s expert community clearly views the source of instability … stability in the strategic military relationship in ways
that serve shared political objectives.
Development of the DF-31 causes China to MIRV it weapons – that ensures an Asian arms race
Brookes 2k (Peter, Principal Adviser – East Asian Affairs – Committee on International Relations, “Theater Missile
Defense: How Will It Recast Security and Diplomacy in East Asia?,” The Heritage Foundation, 8-17,
http://www.heritage.org/research/missiledefense/hl683.cfm)
CHINA'S NEW STRATEGIC CHALLENGE In perhaps the most … deadly risk of miscalculation and military conflict.
Global nuclear war

Cirincione 00 (Joseph, Director of the Non-Proliferation Project – CEIP, Foreign Policy, 3-22, Lexis)
The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, …, the first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.
MIRV development ensures Korean War and spurs Chinese use of EMP weapons
Helprin 7 (Mark, Senior Fellow – Claremont Institute, “Helprin on the Chinese Nuclear Threat,” Missile Threat, 3-5,
http://www.missilethreat.com/archives/id.5123/detail.asp)
This has led the United States unwittingly … lost their intelligence and the other half have lost their nerve.
Korean conflict causes extinction

Africa News 99 (10-25, Lexis)
Lusaka - If there is one place today where the … that it was moving towards normalising relations with North Korea.
EMP attack causes extinction

Kessler 9 (Ronald, chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com, EMP Attack Could Wipe Out U.S. Attack, 9-9,
http://www.newsmax.com/kessler/emp_attack/2009/09/09/257870.html)
The federal government is doing “nothing” … infrastructures, especially the electric power grid.”
Taiwan advantage:
Pro-independence push is gaining momentum – Taiwan’s new President flip-flopped spurring political aggression
Junbo 9 (“Taiwan's 'opportunist' president alters tack,” Asia Times Online, 8-11,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KH11Ad01.html)
If one had to use a single word to describe Taiwan's …, and it will never budge on this issue.
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US backing is key – gives Taiwan a green light on independence

Carpenter 6 (Ted Galen, vice president of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, “What Strategic
Ambiguity?” South China Morning Post, 6-12, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6438)
For decades, the United States has practised a policy of … Taiwan. Mr. Zoellick's inadvertent candor has eliminated
that option.
Nuclear ambiguity over Taiwan makes political and military miscalculation structurally inevitable
Blair 5 (Bruce, President – World Security Institute, “General Zhu and Chinese Nuclear Preemption”, China Security, 1,
Autumn, http://www.wsichina.org/attach/china_security.pdf)
U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity By casting a dollop of doubt on China’s … must have a briefcase full of ideas that this writer
and many others are eager to hear, and debate.
The impact is nuclear war

Johnson 1 (Chalmers, President – Japan Policy Research Institute, “Time to Bring the Troops Home”, The Nation, 4-
26, http://ieas.berkeley.edu/cks/k12/girling_troops.doc)
In East Asia, the United States maintains massive … easily escalate into a nuclear holocaust.
Taiwan is the biggest impact – most likely scenario for global nuclear escalation
Ikegami 8 (Dr. Masako, Professor of Sociology and Peace & Conflict Studies and Director of the Center for Pacific Asia
Studies – Stockholm University “Time for Conflict Prevention Across the Taiwan Strait”, China Brief, 8(7), 3-28,
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=4822)
Indeed, a cross-Strait conflict is potentially … lead to worldwide criticism and boycotts of Chinese products.
Crises likely and escalate rapidly – nothing checks

Scobell 9 (Dr. Andrew, Professor of International Affairs and Director of the China Certificate Program – Texas A&M
University, “Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise?”, Parameters, Summer,
The actions suggest a lack of civilian control, … with the Central Military Commission was established in early 2008.
Clarifying strategic intentions and ending nuclear ambiguity over Taiwan makes deterrence effective and prevents an
over-aggressive independence push
Wang 5 (Dong, professor of Political Science at UCLA, “Comprehending Strategic Ambiguity: A Game Theoretic View
of the Taiwan Issue,” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, 9-1,
http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/4/2/1/9/pages42191/p42191-1.php)
However, there comes another ambiguity, that is, the … relations between the United States, Mainland China, and
Taiwan.
Even if independence fails – the perception of a Taiwan push for independence causes CCP collapse and Chinese
breakup
Swaine 4 (Michael D., Senior Associate and Co-Director of the China Program – Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, “Trouble in Taiwan”, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis)
China very much wants to avoid conflict over Taiwan. But … enforcement of international nonproliferation regimes; and
prosecuting the war on terrorism.
CCP collapse causes lashout – kills billions

Rexing 5 (San, Staff – Epoch Times, The CCP’s Last Ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War, 8-5,
http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30975.html)
Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” … to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives.
Chinese breakup causes Asian war

Economist 95 (“A long, hard road,” 3-18, lexis)
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Fragmentation along military lines might … result would be an Asian nightmare.
Asian conflict escalates to global nuclear war

Dibb 1 (Paul, Professor – Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College
Review, Winter, http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Winter/art2-w01.htm)
The areas of maximum danger and instability … Forum have shown themselves to be ineffective when confronted with
major crises.
Tibet independence independently causes extinction

Dekhang 98 (Tsultrim, Executive He ad of the EDD and Environmental Studies –Yale University, “Nuclear Weapons on
the Tibetan Plateau, http://www.tibet.com/Eco/Green98/chap6.html)
The Tibetan Plateau has been militarised by …and share with all other sentient beings.
Taiwan push for independence causes global secessionism

Carlson 5 (Allen, Professor of Government – Cornell University, Unifying China, Integrating With The World: Securing
Chinese Sovereignty in the Reform Era, p. 128)
Lacer in the decade, in the months …Hong Kong, Macao also have this right to secession?”
Global nuclear war

Shehadi 93 (Kamal, Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, December, Ethnic Self
Determination and the Break Up of States, p. 81)
This paper has argued that self-determination …will erupt over national minorities and borders.
Contention 1: Chinese Modernization –
of restraint are key to prevent widespread instability
Future of Chinese Deterrence Strategy”, China Brief, 9(5), 3-4, http://www.jamestown.org/ programs/
chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[ tt_news]=34661&tx_ttnews[ backPid]=25&cHash=8df75e4936)
The development of China’s nuclear … understanding of U.S. views and motivations.
China’s transitioning to fast modernization

Strategic Studies, Vol. 23, Iss. 1, Feb., http://www.informaworld.com. proxy-remote.galib.uga.edu/ smpp/section?
content= a908916446&fulltext=713240928)
The People's Liberation Army (PLA), once widely dismissed as a bloated … deterrence stability in a Taiwan Strait
crisis or conflict?

Nuclear Counterforce,” 4-13, http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/ 2009/04/ending-nuclear- counterforce.php)
Even so, if the benefits could be potentially huge … otherwise hoped to get to through a first strike.
he United States has been the primary driver for this new … than the reduction of numbers of nuclear weapons in
isolation
It’s reverse causal – No First Use towards China massively decreases modernization – creates certainty, reduces the
threat, and is a concession to China – even if not – it slows modernization
Lewis 9 (Jeffrey, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation,
“Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force Modernization,” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July,
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http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/ Digital-Library/Publications/ Detail/?ots591=0C54E3B3-1E9C- BE1E-2C24-

A6A8C7060233&lng=en& id=98894)
The United States and China have begun a formal dialogue … accidents, miscalculations, or misunderstandings.
And it sends a signal of restraint that gets modeled – solves war globally
Kimball 5 (Daryl, director – Arms Control Association, “Of Madmen and Nukes,” 12-4, http://www.counterpunch.org/
kimball11042005.html)
Chinese Major General Zhu Chenghu told journalists … reconsider and readjust the role of U.S. nuclear forces.
Only a No First Use pledge to China stops the arms race

http://csis.org/files/media/ csis/pubs/081015_intro_and_ key_findings.pdf)
China’s expert community clearly views the source of instability in the … military relationship in ways that serve shared
political objectives.
Modernization causes Russia-China war

Wilkins 8 (Warren, writer – Center for Threat Awareness, “Pondering China's Military Buildup,” 3-24,
http://threatswatch.org/ rapidrecon/2008/03/pondering- chinas-military-buil/)
With the latest ominous disclosure of China’s burgeoning … independent states of Soviet Russia that remain under
Russian influence."
Goes nuclear
Sharavin 1 (Alexander, Russian Military Officer, 10-3, Defense and Security, Lexis)
Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us … even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.
Modernization causes PLA backlash - causes CCP collapse and Asian war
High-Stakes Gamble?” Strategic Forum, No. 204)
China is committed to modernizing almost every aspect … outright anarchy, could threaten all of Asia.

http://english.epochtimes.com/ news/5-8-5/30975.html)
Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” it would … one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives.

Review, Winter, http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/ Review/2001/Winter/art2-w01. htm)
The areas of maximum danger and instability … have shown themselves to be ineffective when confronted with major
crises.
Escalation is likely – PLA lashout draws in major powers

Klintworth 94 (Gary, Former Senior Researcher – Northeast Asia Project, Australian Journal of International Affairs,
November, p. 219)
China also has many problems, not least the degradation … China poses the greatest risk to regional and global
security.
China’s main focus of modernization is cyber and ASAT technology

Bajoria 9 (Jayshree, staff writer – Council on Foreign Relations, “China's Military Power,” 2-4, http://www.cfr.org/
publication/18459/)
As part of this modernization agenda, China is acquiring … the networks that support them," he said.
No First Use stops that

AAAS 7 (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, “China’s Nuclear Arms Posture Examined in New Book from the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences,” 5-16, http://www.amacad.org/news/ nuclear_china.aspx)
Lewis reasons that while a major buildup of strategic … defense systems that undermine China’s security.
Chinese ASAT development causes global nuclear shootouts
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Hitchens 5 (Theresa, Vice President and Director of the Space Security Project at the Center for Defense Information,
Defense News, Worst-Case Mentality Clouds USAF Space Strategy, 2-14, http://www.cdi.org/program/ document.cfm?
DocumentID=2885& StartRow=11&ListRows=10&& Orderby=D.DateLastUpdated& ProgramID=68&typeID=(8)&from_
page=relateditems.cfm)
The case being argued by space weapon enthusiasts goes like this … U.S. satellite conked out due to faulty
manufacturing processes.
And it causes space debris

Forden 8 (Dr. Geoffrey, M.I.T. research associate and a former UN weapons inspector and strategic weapons analyst
Congressional Budget Office, “How China Loses the Coming Space War”, 1/10, http://blog.wired.com/defense/
2008/01/inside-the-chin.html# more )
But if the short term military consequences to the United States … it is clear that diplomacy is in every country's
interest.
Space debris causes accidental US-Russia nuclear war

Lewis 4 (Jeffrey, Postdoctoral Fellow in the Advanced Methods of Cooperative Study Program, Worked In the Office of
the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Center for Defense Information, What if Space Were Weaponized? July,
http://www.cdi.org/PDFs/ scenarios.pdf)
This is the second of two scenarios that consider how U.S. space weapons … confidence that allows national nuclear
forces to operate safely.
Cyber attacks cause grid failure

Toner 3 (Mike, writer – Atlanta Journal Constitution, “Aging U.S. Power Grid System 'Extraordinarily Vulnerable',” 8-16,
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/ 1G1-106673595.html)
The biggest blackout in North American history wasn't caused … mandate rolling blackouts for as long as several
years."
Causes accidental nuclear launch

Earth Island Journal 00 (Winter, Vol. 14, No. 4, http://www.earthisland.org/ eijournal/win2000/wr_ win2000y2k.html)
NIRS notes that increasingly severe winter storms have caused power outages … all other nuclear weapons states are
in de-alert status."
Accidents escalate – killing billions

Forrow 98 (Lachlan, MD, et al, “Accidental Nuclear War – A Post-Cold War Assessment”, New England Journal of
Medicine, iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/ 20625/acciden_nuke_war.pdf)
Earlier assessments have documented in detail the problems … billions of direct and indirect casualties worldwide.
Cyber attack kills readiness

Williamson 2 (Jenny, LT Colonel, Strategy research project, “Information Operations: Computer Network Attack in the
21st Century,” US Army War College, 4-9)
DOD computer network systems are the nucleus … to deploy and sustain military forces.
Causes conflict escalation – readiness key to prevent war

Spencer 00 (Jack, Policy Analyst – Heritage Foundation, The Facts About Military Readiness, 9-15,
http://www.heritage.org/ Research/MissileDefense/ BG1394.cfm)
The evidence indicates that the U.S. armed forces are not ready … in regions of vital national interest, thereby
preserving peace.
Contention 2: Military Contacts
US/Chinese economic and political ties are strong – but military cooperation is low because the U.S. refuses to adopt
NFU
Bajoria 9 (Jayshree, Asian Writer – Council on Foreign Relations, “Backgrounder: China’s Military Power”, New York
Times, 2-5, http://www.nytimes.com/cfr/ world/slot3_20090204.html)
Since the 1990s, China has dramatically improved … we would need more active cooperation with the Chinese."
Reversing U.S. declaratory policy builds trust and military cooperation with China
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Wu 8 (Anne, Associate of the Managing the Atom Project in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs –
Harvard University, “Engage China in Nuclear-Proliferation Issue”, Providence Journal, 10-27, http://belfercenter.ksg.
harvard.edu/publication/18639/ engage_china_in_ nuclearproliferation_issue. html)
THE POSITIONS of Barack Obama and John McCain … for the benefit of both parties and the world.
It’s the vital internal link – China views NFU as a key barometer of U.S. strategic intentions
Garrett and Glaser 96 (Banning N., and Bonnie S., Consultants on Asian Affairs, “Chinese Perspectives on Nuclear
Arms Control”, International Security, Winter, 20(3), p. 64-65)
For three decades, China has urged the other four nuclear-weapon … better able to establish stable relationships
among themselves.
Only immediate and unconditional NFU creates this symbolic and political benefit
Arbatov 8 (Dr. Alexei, Head of the Center for International Security Center of the Institute for International Economy
and International Relationships – Russian Academy of Sciences, “No First Use As a Way of Outlawing Nuclear
Weapons”, November, http://www.icnnd.org/latest/ research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.rtf )
However, as mentioned above, the main deficiency of the NFU idea … so its pledge towards the USA would be
strategically credible.
Impact is global leadership – US/China military relations underpin essential cooperation in every hotspot
Holslag 9 (Jonathan, Research Fund Flanders Fellow – Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, “Embracing
Chinese Global Security Ambitions”, Washington Quarterly, July, http://www.twq.com/09july/ docs/09jul_Holslag.pdf)
The United States has sent ambivalent signals about this evolution … mitigated by continuing to move forward in
others.
That stops global nuclear war

Kagan 7 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History:
International Rivalry and American Leadership”, Policy Review, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/
publications/policyreview/ 8552512.html#n10)
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations … draw the United States back in under
unfavorable circumstances.
Specifically – China refuses nuclear dialogue until the U.S. adopts NFU. This blocks cooperation to stop arms sales
Nacht 98 (Michael, Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy – University of California, “Strategic Assessment
– Engaging Power for Peace”, Chapter 12, Institute for International Studies, March, http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/
awcgate/sa98/sa98ch12.htm)
There is nothing like this in the dialogue with China … reduce tensions and minimize misunderstandings.
Chinese arms sales cause Middle East war

Gaffney 97 (Frank, Director – Center for Security Policy, “China Arms the Rogues”, Middle East Quarterly, September,
4(3), http://www.meforum.org/ article/360)
The foregoing transactions represent but a fraction of … unilateral where necessary-to resist and curb these perils.
Global nuclear war

Steinbach 2 (John, DC Iraq Coalition, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace”, Center for Research
on Globalization, 3-3, http://www.globalresearch.ca/ articles/STE203A.html)
Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such … Middle East conflict could trigger a world
conflagration." (44)
Also – sparks South Asian nuclear war – goes global

Saunders 00 (Phillip, Director of the East Asia Program – Center for Nonproliferation Studies, et al., Rediff Special, 8-
20, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/org/ cwp/projects/us_armscontrol/ rediff_china.htm)
Continuing Chinese missile proliferation to Pakistan will … one of the most important and difficult challenges for global
nonproliferation efforts.
Initiating proliferation dialogue alone shores up U.S. credibility and solves the impact
Sledge 1 (Nathaniel H., Lieutenant Colonel – United States Army, “Broken Promises: The United States, China, and
Nuclear Nonproliferation”, US Army War College Research Project, 1-1, Lexis)
If the United States does not effectively enforce its nonproliferation … to the notion that someday it will eliminate all
nuclear weapons.
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Even if relations are strong – lack of NFU cuts off mutual trust and lines of communication, ensuring future accidents,
miscalculation, and escalation
Lewis 9 (Dr. Jeffrey, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation,
“Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force Modernization”, Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament, Ed.
Hansell and Potter, p. 44-46)
In the United States, we tend to think about two implications that will arise … possibility of accidents, miscalculations,
or misunderstandings.

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ usawc/parameters/09summer/ scobell.pdf)
The actions suggest a lack of civilian control, although … Central Military Commission was established in early 2008.

26, http://ieas.berkeley.edu/cks/ k12/girling_troops.doc)
In East Asia, the United States maintains massive and expensive … More seriously, it could easily escalate into a
nuclear holocaust.
And – draw a line –
Cuts now – START follow-up ensures deep cuts by December and more next year
Loukianova 9 (Anya, Research Associate – James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute
of International Studies, “The Nuclear Posture Review Debate,” Issue Brief, Nuclear Threat Initiative, 8-19,
http://www.nti.org/e_research/ e3_nuclear_posture_review_ debate.html)
In a landmark April 5, 2009, speech in Prague, President Obama stated … all aspects of nuclear doctrine and
strategy."[13]
And CTBT and FMCT
Marlowe 9 (Lara, “Nuclear-free world,” Irish Times, 7-7, http://www.irishtimes.com/ newspaper/world/2009/0707/
1224250171705.html)
Despite continuing tensions over the US anti-missile system … Strategic Defence Initiative) blocked progress until
now.
The United States Federal Government should preclude nuclear first use against the People’s Republic of Ch
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Georgia Harrison/Layton (NFU-China) [DCH]
GSU Aff Disclosure


crisis or conflict?

isolation
A6A8C7060233&lng=en& id=98894)


Russian influence."
Goes nuclear
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crises.

November, p. 219)
security.

publication/18459/)



interest.


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years."




preserving peace.
NFU
among themselves.
others.
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Global nuclear war


nuclear weapons.


nuclear holocaust.
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strategy."[13]
And CTBT and FMCT
1224250171705.html)
now.
The United States Federal Government should preclude nuclear first use against the People’s Republic of China.
GSU Round 1
versus Wake GM
2AC
AT: T - no specific target
We meet – reducing a part reduces the whole – first use is a mission – we make it less
And we meet role

International Security and Cooperation, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 3, June–July,
In his 5 April 2009 …..also in their national interests.
We meet all of their definitions – – means their interpretation is contrived – that’s bad – infinitely regressive and
unpredictable and they can always have a more limiting interpretation.
Counter-interpretation – affs can target specific countries –
--Nuclear missions are specific tasks including damage limitation attacks against China
Oelrich 5 (Ivan, Ph.D. and Acting President – Federation of American Scientists, “Missions for Nuclear Weapons after
the Cold War”, FAS Occasional Paper 3, January, http://www.fas.org/resource/01282005175922.pdf)
Defining Nuclear Missions ....This study…..terminate a regional conventional war
--Substantially means specified to a large degree

Arkush 2 (David, JD Candidate – Harvard University, “Preserving "Catalyst" Attorneys' Fees Under the Freedom of
Information Act in the Wake of Buckhannon Board and Care Home v. West Virginia Department of Health and Human
Resources”, Harvard Civil Rights-Civil Liberties Law Review, Winter,
37 Harv. C.R.-C.L. L. Rev. 131)
Plaintiffs should argue that the…..considerable amount, quantity or dimensions"). 101
--Restrict means to confine – NOT to completely prohibit

Words and Phrases 7 (37A W&P, p. 406)
Miss. 1927. To “restrict” is…..So. 441, 147 Miss. 534
It’s best –
--Aff ground – specific country research is inevitable – small affs are better than PICs – neg gets the block and
guaranteed generic and specific strategies – big affs create unbeatable PICs – kills predictability and research.
--Topic education – country-specific change is the heart of contemporary nuclear policy

Woolf 8 (Amy, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy – Congressional Research Service, “Nuclear Weapons in U.S.
National Security Policy: Past, Present, and Prospects”, CRS Report, 12-30,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34226.pdf)
The Bush Administration has outlined…..in U.S. national security strategy.
No impact – we only target 7 countries – literature, advantages, and stable mechanisms ensure neg ground
Reasonability is best – and competing interpretations causes race to the smallest topic
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Case
QDR makes conventional weapons shift inevitable
Sammon 9 (Richard, Senior Associate Editor – Washington Matters, “Pentagon Review Spurring Large Changes,”
Washington Matters, 8-25, http://blog.kiplinger.com/politics/2009/08/pentagon-review-promises-host.html)
Transformational shifts in defense policy….. defense is creating with Russia.
Conventional forces high and no escalation

Axe 9 (David, Military Correspondent – World Politics Review, “War is Boring: U.S. Struggles to Adapt to China's
Economic Strategy,” World Politics Review, 4-15, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3614)
The same holds true across…..greatest threat to U.S. interests.
AT: Consult NATO

-- NATO says no –
A) Germany
JT 5 (Japan Times, “U.S. Retained First-Strike Option to Keep Japan Under Nuke Umbrella”, 3-6,
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20050306a3.html)
The discussions involved such options….. want to send that signal."
B) Britain
Espinoza 94 (Paul E., Lieutenant – United States Navy and MA – Naval Postgraduate School, “No-First-Use:
Implications for Deterrence, Alliance Cohesion, and Nonproliferation”, Naval Postgraduate School Thesis, December,
http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/1994/Dec/94Dec_Espinosa.pdf)
If the United States were …..the European balance of power.
-- Consultation jacks NATO cohesion

Michael 2 (Rebecca, The Bologna Center Journal of International Affairs, Spring,
www.jhubc.it/bcjournal/archive/print/2002/nato.pdf)
Consultation and cooperation in the …..legitimate basis for intervention
-- NATO is strong and resilient

Trueblood 4 (Tad, National Security Analyst and Fmr Military Officer with 20 Years Experience, “Not Your Father’s
NATO”, 4-1, http://www.southernutah.com/Articles/World_Affairs/Document.2004-04-01.2317)
Not your father's NATO …..not your father’s NATO anymore.
-- Doesn’t solve –
Unconditional signal key – exceptions cause China to doubt credibility and ambiguity undercuts symbolism – that’s
Arbatov
Backlash – China hates US commitment to extended deterrence

NTI 3 (Nuclear Threat Initiative, “China's Attitude Toward Nuclear Deterrence,” 6-26,
http://nuclearthreatinitiative.org/db/china/deterpos.htm)
China's official position on nuclear…..credibility of China's nuclear doctrine.
Consult shows lack of commitment

Harris 3 (Tobias, Editor, Concord Bridge Magazine, Gulliver Unbound, Concord Bridge Magazine, 5-20,
http://people.brandeis.edu/~cbmag/Articles/2003%20May/Gulliver%20unbound-%20May%202003.pdf)
At what point does asymmetrical…..equivocation and watered down positions.
Clarity key – CP gets mispercieved

Sagan 00 (Scott, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation –
Stanford University, “The Commitment Trap”, International Security, Spring, p. 112-115)
The U.S. government should not…..certainly be easier to maintain.
-- Turn – CMR –
CP makes military policy public – military will backlash

Desch 96 (Michael, Assistant Director – Institute for Strategic Studies – Harvard U., Civil-Military Relations and
Democracy, Ed. Diamond and Plattner, p. 14
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In contrast, if a country….. pattern of civil-military relations.
Takes out solvency – no enforcement

Feaver 3 (Peter D., Professor of Political Science – Duke, Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military
Relations, p. 68)
In practical terms, military shirking…..policy will never be implemented.
Independently – causes global war

Cohen 97 (Eliot, Professor of Strategic Studies – Johns Hopkins U., “Civil-Military Relations”, Orbis, Spring)
Left uncorrected, the trends in…..cannot be taken for granted.
-- NATO collapse doesn’t cause war

Conry 95 (Barbara, Foreign Policy Analyst – Cato, Cato Policy Analysis, “The Western European Union as NATO’s
Successor”, 9-18, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-239.html
Europe after NATO: Bogus Nightmare…..European and, indirectly, American interests.
-- No European war
Asmus 3 (Ronald, Senior Fellow – German Marshall Fund, Foreign Affairs, September / October, Lexis)
Several factors make the recent…..peace over the last decade.
AT: Politics
-- Missile defense –
Cuts announced Thursday – tanked capital
Shear 9-17 (Michael D., Staff Writer – WP, “Obama to Scrap European Missile Shield Plan”, Washington Post,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/17/AR2009091700639.html?hpid=topnews)
President Obama said Thursday that…..as "a giant step forward."
-- Debt ceiling vote soon – triggers the link

Sahadi 9-16 (Jeanne, Senior Writer – CNN Money, “U.S. About to Hit Debt Ceiling – Again”, CNN Money, 2009,
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/16/news/economy/debt_ceiling/?postversion=2009091610)
Congress has raised the debt …..who's responsible for the debt."
-- Won’t pass – vote counts

Hoover 9-16 (Kent, Washington Bureau Chief – American City Business Journals, “One Is the Loneliest Number for
Baucus”, Portfolio, 2009, http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/capital/2009/09/16/max-baucus-seems-to-go-it-alone-
on-health-care-reform/)
Senator Max Baucus thinks he’s…..for the American Medical Association.
-- Broad opposition blocks

Young 9-16 (Jeffrey, Staff Writer – The Hill, “Ganging up on Baucus: Senator's Plan Garners Bipartisan Grumbles”,
The Hill, 2009, http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/59149-ganging-up-on-baucus)
Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) finally…..bill by a simple majority.
-- Court will strike down healthcare reform

Trumbull 9-17 (Mark, Writer – CSM, “Healthcare Reform Tussle, Seen Through the Lens of Constitution Day”,
Christian Science Monitor, 2009, Lexis
The judicial branch. Any major…..in The Wall Street Journal.
-- Reform fails
Connolly 9-16 (Kate, “The Baucus Health-Care Reform Bill: Nothing for Something”, 2009,
Senate Finance chair Max Baucus …..gaining anything on the right.
-- No war impact
Miller 00 (Morris, Economist, Adjunct Professor in the Faculty of Administration – University of Ottawa, Former
Executive Director and Senior Economist – World Bank, “Poverty as a Cause of Wars?”, Interdisciplinary Science
Reviews, Winter, p. 273)
The question may be reformulated…… of violence to abort another).
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-- Econ resilient
Behravesh 6 (Nariman, Most Accurate Economist – Tracked by USA Today and Chief Global Economist and
Executive Vice President – Global Insight, “The Great Shock Absorber; Good Macroeconomic Policies and Improved
Microeconomic Flexibility have Strengthened the Global Economy's 'Immune System.'”, Newsweek, 10-15,
www.newsweek.com/id/47483)
The U.S. and global economies …..impact on overall GDP growth.
-- U.S. not key to global economy

ML 6 (Merrill Lynch, “US Downturn Won’t Derail World Economy”, 9-18, http://www.ml.com/index.asp?
id=7695_7696_8149_63464_70786_71164)
A sharp slowdown in the …..Brazil is set to decouple.
--Normal means is the DOD – Obama can blame the plan on them
-- No backlash – plan doesn’t need Congressional approval

Mendelsohn 6 (Jack, Adjunct Professor – George Washington University and American University, Member – SALT I
and START II, and Former Deputy Director – Arms Control Association, “Delegitimizing Nuclear Weapons”, Issues in
Science and Technology, Spring, http://www.issues.org/22.3/mendelsohn.html)
There are no indications that…..declaratory policy in a day."
--Cuts now – START follow up, CTBT, and FMCT all make the link inevitable
--Normal means is to put it in the NPR and back channel it to China – avoids the link
Perry and Schlesinger 9 (William, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor (at FSI and Engineering) and Co-director
of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC and James, chairman of MITRE, member of the U.S. Department of State
International Security Advisory Board, and former Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Defense, Director of Central
Intelligence, and Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, “America’s Strategic Posture,” The Final Report of the
Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States)
Declaratory policy is a signal…..the United Nations Security Council.
-- No opposition to the plan

Martin 7 (Matt, Program Officer for Policy Analysis and Dialogue – Stanley Foundation, “US Nuclear Weapons Policy
and Arms Control”, Stanley Foundation Policy Dialogue Brief, 11-13,
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/US_NukePDB508.pdf)
Congress Congressional interest in nuclear …..motivated by outside pressure groups.
-- Obama won’t be tied to the plan

Ritchie 9 (Nick, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow – Bradford Disarmament Research Centre and Research Specializing
in Nuclear Weapons – Oxford Research Group, US Nuclear Weapons Policy after the Cold War, p. 6)
At the centre of the….the president or the NSC.
--Congress opposes first use toward China

Times Colonist 5 (“America vows to strike first: The Pentagon proposes to use nuclear pre-emptive attacks against
potential enemies” 9/13, lexis)
A chilling proposal that military….deterrents against possible terrorist attacks.
--Congress is pro-China and supports measures to strengthen relations

Xinhua 9 (“Top Chinese legislator meets leaders of U.S. parliament group on China” 9/10,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/10/content_12031987.htm)
WASHINGTON, Sept. 9 (Xinhua) -- Visiting top Chinese legislator Wu…..development of U.S.-China relations.
-- Public likes the plan

Young 5 (Stephen, Senior Analyst and. Washington Representative – UCS, “Americans Oppose New Nuclear
Weapons”, Union of Concerned Scientists Fact Sheet, 7-29, http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/library/opinion-
polls/nuclear-weapons/PIPA-Poll-FactSheet-FINAL.pdf)
A 2004 poll found that…..countries from using nuclear weapons.
--Public key to the agenda
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Feldmann 9 (Linda, Staff Writer – Christian Science Monitor, “Is Obama Taking too Much?”, Christian Science Monitor,
3-11, http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2009/03/11/is-obama-taking-on-too-much/)
All the while, the nation…Clinton, in The New Republic.
--McCain likes the plan

Xuan 9 (Song, Executive Director – Yardway Group Limited, “Chinese defense minister meets U.S. Senator McCain”,
PLA Daily, 4-9, http://eng.mod.gov.cn/Database/Leadership/2009-04/09/content_4005296.htm)
Liang stressed that China hopes…..in various fields including anti-piracy.
--He’s key to the agenda

Cilizza 8 (Chris, Political Reporter – Washington Post, “What’s Next for McCain”, Washington Post, 11-17,
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/republican-party/whats-next-for-mccain.html)
In many ways, McCain is…… over the next few years.
AT: RRW
-- NFU quick – doesn’t bog down Congress
Mendelsohn 6 (Jack, Adjunct Professor – George Washington University, Member of SALT I and START II
Delegations, and Former Deputy Director – Arms Control Association, “Delegitimizing Nuclear Weapons”, Issues in
Science and Technology, 3-22, Lexis)
All nuclear first-use policies are…..declaratory policy in a day."
-- Uniqueness overwhelms the link – RRW is completely dead

IMD 09 (Inside Missile Defense, 7/15, Vol. 15 No. 14, Lexis)
The Senate Armed Services Committee….nuclear weapons, the source said.
-- No Concession – the plan only changes our policy towards China – there is ZERO reason why they would want a
quid pro quo if we maintain the size of our arsenal and the role of most of our weapons.
Secret RRW inevitable
The Guardian 9 ("US using British atomic weapons factory for its nuclear programme," 2-9,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/09/us-uk-atomic-weapons-nuclear-power)
The extent of US involvement at…..around the restrictions at home.
-- Status quo triggers the link
A. Deep Cuts
China View 9-5 (“Russia, U.S. begin working on new nuclear arms deal,” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-
09/05/content_12002342.htm)
Russia and the United States …..allows the inspection of weapons
That causes RRW

Sauer 5 (Tom, Lecturer in International Politics – University of Antwerp and Post-Doctoral Research Fellow – Flemish
Fund for Scientific Research, Nuclear Inertia: US Nuclear Weapons Policy After the Cold War, p. 88-89)
The nuclear establishment, the Air…..support of the START agreement'36
B. CTBT
Samay Live 4-5 (“Obama to aggressively seek CTBT ratification,” http://www.samaylive.com/news/obama-to-
aggressively-seek-ctbt-ratification/616925.html)
Bringing the CTBT back on…..House said in a statement.
That triggers the link

GSN 09 (Global Security Newswire, Elaine M. Grossman, 8/18, http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090818_1478.php)
During the interagency meeting, Gates …..Senate aide said last week.
-- No Impact – RRW is decades away

UCS 07 (Union of Concerned Scientists, May, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/new-nuclear-
weapons-rrw.html)
New weapons program will not ……in nuclear arsenals worldwide.
Harvard Round 7
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Case
NFU towards China prevents rollback of their NFU policy

Minnick 6 (Wendell, Asia Bureau Chief – Defense News, “China speeds ICBM plans”, Center for International Security
and Cooperation, 7-10,
http://cisac.stanford.edu/news/experts_judge_likely_effects_of_new_icbm_on_chinas_nuclear_policies_20060807/)
In July 2005, Maj. Gen. Zhu Chengdu

countries' nuclear arsenals."
AT: Capitalism
Perm – do the plan and non-competitive parts of the alt – solves best –
Incorporating the precise political objective of the plan is key – unspecific and broadly critical demands are easily co-
opted by the nuclear establishment
Nolan 89 (Janne E., Adjunct Professor of International Studies – Georgetown University and Senior Fellow in Foreign
Policy Studies – Brookings Institution, Guardians of the Arsenal, p. 282-285)
To many, the idea that nuclear war planning

capable of bringing down the walls of Jericho.
Resistance within the system is a positive step that should be supported

Robinson and Tormey 6 (Andrew, Leverhulme Trust Early Career Fellow in the School of Politics – University of
Nottingham and Simon, Professor of Politics and Critical Theory and Head of the School of Politics – University of
Nottingham, “Zizek’s Marx: ‘Sublime Object’ or a ‘Plague of Fantasies’?”, Historical Materialism, 14(3))
Thinking, fourthly, about the formal characteristics

should be supported by all means.
Perm solves
Rothkrug 90 (Paul, Founder – Environmental Rescue Fund, Monthly Review, March, 41(10), p. 38)
No institution is or ever has been

for that very effort.
Predictions good
Kurasawa 4 (Fuyuki, Professor of Sociology – York University of Toronto, “Cautionary Tales: The Global Culture of
Prevention and the Work of Foresight”, Constellations, 11(4))
A radically postmodern line

action on the global stage.
AT: NPR
CP gets leaked and decrease political capital

Beljac 9 (Marko, PhD – Monash University, “Bob Gates Leaks Info on Obama’s Nuclear Posture Review,” The Nuke
Strategy Wonk, 9-23, http://scisec.net/?p=177)
More news leaks out on the Obama

W76 and the B61.
--Normal means is to put the plan in the NPR and back channel it to China – avoids the link
Perry and Schlesinger 9 (William, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor (at FSI and Engineering) and Co-director
of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC and James, chairman of MITRE, member of the U.S. Department of State
International Security Advisory Board, and former Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Defense, Director of Central
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Intelligence, and Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, “America’s Strategic Posture,” The Final Report of the
Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States)
Declaratory policy is a signal of

United Nations Security Council.
-- Say no –
Bureaucracy
Oelrich 9 (Ivan, vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists, “Next Obama
Speech: The Pentagon,” 9-24, http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/09/next-obama-speech-the-pentagon.php)
The President’s remarks are

not to settle for gradualism.
Military blocks
Guangqian and Yu 9 (Peng, Editor-in-Chief – Strategic Sciences and Rong, Ph.D. Candidate – Institute of International
Strategy and Development, “Nuclear No-First-Use Revisited”, China Security, 5(1), Winter, p. 80)
Therefore, for states that

obstacle to NFU policy.
Condition shows lack of commitment

Harris 3 (Tobias, Editor, Concord Bridge Magazine, Gulliver Unbound, Concord Bridge Magazine, 5-20,
http://people.brandeis.edu/~cbmag/Articles/2003%20May/Gulliver%20unbound-%20May%202003.pdf)
At what point does asymmetrical

and watered down positions.
AT: CMR
CMR Low –
-- NMD and budget cuts

Smith 9-21 (Jeffrey, Staff Writer – Washington Post, “Missile Defense's Shelving Reflected Military's Concerns”,
Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/20/AR2009092002532.html)
Call it another revolt of the

develop and field and operate."
--Afghan report
Haddick 9-4 (Robert, Managing Editor – Small Wars Journal, “This Week At War: McChrystal Plays Defense”, Foreign
Policy, 2009, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/04/this_week_at_war_mcchrystal _plays_defense)
Gen. Stanley McChrystal's report

Afghanistan and beyond.
Military support the plan – no backlash

Martin 7 (Matt, Program Officer for Policy Analysis and Dialogue – Stanley Foundation, “US Nuclear Weapons Policy
and Arms Control”, Stanley Foundation Policy Dialogue Brief, 11-13,
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/US_NukePDB508.pdf)
Participants speculated that military

the military is not likely to resist nuclear arms cuts.
Plan is a win – boosts CMR

Ackerman 8 (Spencer, The Washington Independent, 11/13, “Productive Obama-Military Relationship Possible,”
http://washingtonindependent.com/18335/productive-obama-military-relationship-possible)
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Robert Mackey, a retired Army officer, said that both

provide commentary on the decisions that have been made.”
-- African war inevitable
Thakur 6 (Ramesh, Senior Vice Rector – UN University (Tokyo), “At Least No New Wars Began”, Japan Times, 2-15,
Lexis)
In Africa, the Ethiopia-Eritrea

and legislative elections.
-- Democracy doesn’t solve war
Taner 2 (Binner, PhD Candidate – Syracuse U., Alternatives: Turkish Journal of Int’l Relations, 1(3), p. 43-44,
http://www.alternativesjournal.com/binnur.pdf)
The discussion above

empirically overdetermined.
AT: Healthcare
-- Won’t pass – Lieberman, key moderates, and Snowe
Fox News 10/27 (Trish Turner, Reid Hits Roadblocks in Bid to Pass Health Bill With Government Insurance Plan,
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/27/lieberman-announces-opposition-health-care-government-plan/)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was struggling

Snowe said. But she said Reid told her the
-- Court will strike down healthcare reform
Trumbull 9-17 (Mark, Writer – CSM, “Healthcare Reform Tussle, Seen Through the Lens of Constitution Day”,
Christian Science Monitor, 2009, Lexis)
The judicial branch. Any major

argued recently in The Wall Street Journal.
-- No backlash – plan doesn’t need Congressional approval

Mendelsohn 6 (Jack, Adjunct Professor – George Washington University and American University, Member – SALT I
and START II, and Former Deputy Director – Arms Control Association, “Delegitimizing Nuclear Weapons”, Issues in
Science and Technology, Spring, http://www.issues.org/22.3/mendelsohn.html)
There are no indications that the Bush administration,

declaratory policy in a day."
--Congress opposes first use toward China

Times Colonist 5 (“America vows to strike first: The Pentagon proposes to use nuclear pre-emptive attacks against
potential enemies” 9/13, lexis)
A chilling proposal that military

possible terrorist attacks.
Plan causes democratic unity

Steinberg 3 (Jeffrey, “US Preemptive Nuclear Strike Plan” 3-7, Executive Intelligence Review,
http://www.nuclearfreenz.org.nz/maptoextinction.htm)
The Jan. 10, 2003 memo from

are making a big stink over this insane utopian shift in policy.
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Key to health care

Dickerson 9 (John, 9/29, “Playing Health Care Politics”, Slate, http://www.slate.com/id/2230817/)
Whether the president's hands-off

divides in his own party.
-- Won’t pass – Moderates
Frates 10/22 (Chris, Politico, House Dem mods threaten opposition over costs,
http://www.politico.com/livepulse/1009/House_Dem_mods_threaten_opposition_over_costs_.html)
A group of 36 moderate House

deficit by $81 billion and drives down the cost of health care.
-- No short term solvency – impacts won’t be felt for a decade
Landers 10/27 (Jim, Dallas Morning News, Health bill won't insure us from mounting deficit,
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/jlanders/stories/DN-
landers_27bus.1.ART0.State.Edition1.3f6b796.html)
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's

from compelling action until then.
-- Tech hurdles prevent bioterror
Mueller 6 (John, Chair of National Security Studies – Mershon Center and Professor of Political Science – Ohio State
University, Overblown, p. 24)
Not only has the science

that greatly inhibit their effective use.
-- Healthcare doesn’t provide more capital, even if it does its long term
Porter 9/22 (Ethan, True-Slant, Obama’s political capital problem, http://trueslant.com/ethanporter/2009/09/22/obamas-

political-capital-problem/)
But as Mark Twain pointed out,

thing that’s easy to get back.
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Georgia Sudarshan/Zhang (NFU-China) [DCH]
GSU Aff Disclosure


crisis or conflict?

isolation
A6A8C7060233&lng=en& id=98894)


Russian influence."
Goes nuclear
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crises.

November, p. 219)
security.

publication/18459/)



interest.


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years."




preserving peace.
NFU
among themselves.
others.
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Global nuclear war


nuclear weapons.


nuclear holocaust.
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strategy."[13]
And CTBT and FMCT
1224250171705.html)
now.
The United States Federal Government should preclude nuclear first use against the People’s Republic of China.
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Gonzaga Moczulski/Kannellopoulos (NFU) [DCH]
Kentucky Tournament
Text: The United States federal government should establish a declaratory policy of No First Use.
Contention One: No disadvantages

1) Unilateral cuts now
New York Times 9-8 Pentagon Checks Arsenal in Race for Nuclear Treaty”, 9/8/09,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/09/world/09arms.html, Z]
2) Prague speech should’ve triggered their links

Anya Loukianova 8-19 (Anya, Monterey Institute for International Studies – James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
STudies “The Nuclear Posture Review Debate,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, August 19,
http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_nuclear_posture_review_debate.html)
3) Anticipation to START follow-up will change our posture

4) The NPR will have deep cuts and eliminate missions

5) FMCT and CTBT

Marlowe 9 (Lara, “Nuclear-Free World Inches Closer To Reality,” The Irish Times, July 7,
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0707/1224250171705.html)
Contention Two: Accidents

The United States is teetering on the edge of miscalculated nuclear launch with Russia – slight miscalculation could
end the world in minutes
Blair 8 [Bruce, President of the World Security Institute and former Minuteman launch officer, February 27, “Increasing
Warning and Decision Time (‘De-Alerting’)” http://disarmament.nrpa.no/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Paper_Blair.pdf)
This means we will be within 5 minutes of extinction at all time unless our force posture is changed
Helfland and Pastore 9 (Ira and John, past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility, “Ira Helfand/John
Pastore: U.S.-Russia Nuclear War Still A Threat,” March 31,
http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html)
The lack of a previous accident doesn’t mitigate the probability of one – we run the risk of failure every day
Crandell 9 (Steven, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, “Start a Revolution With A Video -- A 17 Year-Old Wins National
Competition,” Huffington Post, July 31, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-crandell/start-a-revolution-with-
a_b_247941.html)
The risk accumulates every year – we’re playing Russian Roulette

Phillips and Starr 4 [“Eliminate Launch on Warning”, Alan Phillips is a retired physicist and physician who did radar
Two scenarios for accidental launch:

Scenario One: The United States
Catastrophic accidents extremely likely unless our counterforce mission is changed
Steinbruner 9 (John, Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, Chairman of the
Board at Arms Control Association, “Reframing De-Alert,” EastWest Institute)
Our detection systems are terrible – makes accidental nuclear launches by the United States extremely likely
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Georgievich et al 1 (Alexei, Ph.D and Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir
Semyonovich, Ph.D and leading Research Associate of the Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations of
the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of the Military Sciences Academy, Major General (Ret.), Alexander
Alexeevich, Head of the RAS IMEMO PMFC Non-Proliferation and Arms Reduction Center and Assistant State Duma
Deputy, and Vladimir Georgievich Baranovsky, Ph.D and Deputy Director, RAS IMEMO, 2001 “De-alerting Russian
and US nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers” http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html)
Plan changes the requirements of the counterforce mission to solve accidental launch
Federation of American Scientists 9 (Hans Kristensen, Robert Norris, Ivan Oelrich, “From Counterforce to Minimal
Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons,” Occasional Paper No. 7, April)
NFU spills over to solve accidental nuclear war

http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Berry_No_First_Use_Treaty.pdf)
Scenario Two: Russia

First strike encourages Russian Launch on Warning Status – unauthorized launch is inevitable
Current safeguards are unreliable – accidental launch is inevitable – five Reasons (1) Road Mobile Launchers too
expensive, 2) Bad Early Warning Systems, 3) Submarines have shorter launch times, 4) Generals too much
autonomy, 5) Launch systems automated)
Roth 9 (George Simmons, “A Simple Solution for Accidental Nuclear War,”
http://www.crazedfanboy.com/roth/nukes.html)
Changing our counterforce posture is key to lowering their alert levels and preventing the only scenario for nuclear
exchange
Corcoran 5 (Edward A. Corcoran LTC Edward Corcoran, USA-retired, Ph.D., serves as a Senior Fellow on national
security issues at GlobalSecurity.org. Ed ended his military career as a Strategic Analyst at the US Army War College
where he chaired studies for the Office of the Deputy Chief of Operations. “STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
DETERRENCE ,” 29 November 2005, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/sndeterrence.htm )
The plan gets Russia to give up their counterforce strategies

Roth 9 (George Simmons, “A Simple Solution for Accidental Nuclear War,” html)
Contention Three: Chinese Nuclear Modernization
China is rapidly modernizing its nuclear arsenal as a response to our first strike capabilities
Our first strike missions dictate their force structure – everything China is doing with their nuclear weapons is a
response to our stated nuclear posture
Oelrich 9 (Ivan, President of the Federation of American Scientists, “Ending Nuclear Counterfource,” Federation of
American Scientists, April, http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/04/ending-nuclear-counterforce.php)
Even if China’s response to our nuclear pre-eminence is defensive in nature – it heightens crisis instability, encourages
miscalculation, and shaters mutual trust. NFU is key to restoring confidence.
Chase 9 (Michael S., Assistant Professor in the Strategy and Policy Department at the Naval War College, “The Future
of Chinese Deterrence Strategy,” The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, Volume: 9 Issue: 5
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34661&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid
%5D=25&cHash=8df75e4936)
Five Internal links:

1) High Chinese alert levels will cause escalation based on misperception
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“Chinese Nuclear Force Posture and Force Modernization,” Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament,
p44-46, http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op15/op15.pdf)
2) The Second Artillery will begin putting nuclear and conventional warheads in the same firing units – lowers the
threshold for nuclear use
Cimbala 8 (Stephen, Professor of Political Science at Penn State University, “Nuclear First Use: Prudence or Peril,”
Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 51, 4th Quarter, p27-36, www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/editions/i51/11.pdf)
3) Civilian control over nuclear weapons will be loosened – forces warplanners hands in a crisis
4) Diplomacy Breakdown
Twomey 9 (Christopher, Assistant Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Chinese-U.S. Strategic Affairs:
Dangerous Dynamism,” Arms Control Association,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_0102/china_us_dangerous_dynamism#Twomey)
5) Fait accompli over Taiwan

Rickard 8 (James, “Sun Tzu, Nuclear Weapons and China's Grand Strategy,” Strategic Insights, July,
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2008/Jul/rickardJul08.asp)

Straits Times 2k [Jun 25, LEXIS]
A declaration of no-first use solves – it generates mutual trust and lowers the risk of misunderstandings
“Chinese Nuclear Force Posture and Force Modernization,” Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament,
p44-46, http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op15/op15.pdf)
We solve the underlying reason behind Chinese modernization

Arbatov 8 (Alexei, Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee of the State Duma in the Federal Assembly of
the Russian Federation, “Non-First Use As a Way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons,” International Commission on
Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, November, AD: 7-30-09)
No first use is THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE when it comes to nuclear relations between the United States and China
and would be perceived as credible – nothing else solves
Saalman 9 (Lora, Research Associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, Engaging China and Russia
on Nuclear Disarmament,” Monterey Institute of International Studies, p55, http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/op15/op15.pdf)
Our nuclear posture literally determines the pace of Chinese modernization – if its threatening China will sprint towards
instability – the plan lowers it to a steady jog
Roberts 1 (Brad, “China-U.S. Nuclear Relations: What Relationship Best Serves U.S. Interests,” Institute for Defense
Analyses, August, http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/dtra/china_us_nuc.pdf)
Gonzaga Tournament
1AC - Advantage
Contention One: the Status Quo
Status quo declaratory is still locked in the Reagan Administration’s desire to achieve unassailability – the Nuclear
Posture review is the epitome of the attempt to lock the United States in as the shining city on a hill by attempting to
coerce “rogue” states into succumbing to the United States security agenda through threats of nuclear first strike.
Huntley 4 (Wade, Program Director at the Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research in the Liu
Institute for Global Studies at the University of British Columbia, “Unthinking the Unthinkable: U.S. Nuclear Policy and
Asymmetric Threats,” Strategic Insights, Volume II, Issue 2, February)
The NPR portrays this shift...threats America already faces
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We will use our nuclear weapons and the threat of their use as a means of preserving the so-called “Western Way of
Life” ignoring the millions of people abroad that would die as a result of our nuclear brinksmaship
Chussodovsky 8 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Center for Research
on Globalization, “The US-NATO Preemptive Nuclear Doctrine: Trigger a Middle East Nuclear Holocaust to Defend
"The Western Way of Life" February 11,http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8048)
Deterrence and Pre-emption...nonexistent nuclear weapons program.
Our declaratory policy sets the precedent for first use globally as a response to the United States’ clinging to first use
as a perceived vital source of status
Ellsberg 9 (Daniel, “Ending Nuclear Terrorism: By America and Others,” August 8,
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/32385&Itemid=1)
All these expressions of nuclear ...first-use nuclear threats.
The continued emphasize of nuclear weapons as an important instrument of security and issuances of nuclear threats
will shatter the nuclear fire-break and create pressure for their use
Tannenwald 5 (Nina, Director of International Relations Program and Professor at Brown University, “Stigmatizing the
Bomb,” International Security, Spring, L/n)
What are the future prospects ..of nuclear weapons.
Our policy of nuclear first strike fundamentally shatters the nuclear taboo
Russell 9 (James, Managing Editor of Strategic Insights and Senior Lecturer in the Department of National Security
Affairs at The Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War
in the Middle East,” Security Studies Institute, Spring)
In itself, the “taboo” ...necessary for survival.”
That makes nuclear war inevitable

Schwartz and Derber 91 (William and Charles, “The Nuclear Seduction: Why the Arms Race Doesn't Matter--And
What Does,”Berkeley: University of California Press, http://ark.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft1n39n7wg/)
Before examining whether the arm...annihilation would skyrocket.
1AC - Plan
Text: The United States federal government should establish a declaratory policy of No First Use.
1AC - Solvency

The plan is key to preventing nuclear use – even if we can’t prevent new states from acquiring weapons
Ellsberg 9 (Daniel, “Ending Nuclear Terrorism: By America and Others,” August 8,
http://mwcnews.net/content/view/32385&Itemid=1)
By the same token, contrary ...states, led by our own.
The plan is key to reversing status quo declaratory policy and ensuring the credibility of the nuclear firebreak
Miller 2 (Steven, Director of the International Security Program at Harvard University, “The Utility of Nuclear Weapons
and the Strategy of No-First-Use,”Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, November 15-17, CIAOnet)
This is the crux of the issue. ..no one needs them.
Declaring a no first use policy solves proliferation and nuclear war – it trickles down to changing our strategic decision-
making and enhances our credibility
Throughout the Cold War...children not to smoke.”
Strengthening anti-nuclear norms solves even if states pursue nuclear weapons for security interests
Most participants expressed the opinion ...the United States and Russia.”
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NFU shores up US credibility for creating a consensus against nuclear use

Sagan 9 (Scott D. Sagan, Poly Sci Prof @ Stanford, June 2009, “The Case for No First Use,” Survival, v. 51, no. 3, p.
informa)
This is a useful conceptual ...against non-combatants.21
A declaration of No-First-Use – would be a drastic alteration in our nuclear posture

Miller 2 (Steven, Director of the International Security Program at Harvard University, “The Utility of Nuclear Weapons
and the Strategy of No-First-Use,”Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, November 15-17, CIAOnet)
A strategy of NFU would ....by deterrence and NFU.
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Harvard Jacobs/Parkinson (NFU-Terror) [DCH]
Harvard JP
Rd 5 @ UK vs. Trinity BU
A2: Exclude NK CP
Hihg risk of HEU theft
Wolfstahl no date given "the risk that a....over nuclear assets"
US strikes ecalate to extinction

"Africa times 1999
"it is true too...relations with north korea"
Whole Plan key--middle ground fails

Levi 2008
"One might argue...security and attribution efforts"
Threatening NK --> nuclearization and war

mcdonough 2006 RUSI Journal
"the american deployment...instability and distrust"
establishing nuclear coop solves instability

Stares and WIt 2009
"establishing broader contacts...have similar benefits"
superpower war is terminal impact

Stares and wit 2009
"these various scenarios...intervention in the North"
No solvency--prevents US-NK cop

Levi 2008
"there is one...strong but limited"
Cp means NK won't tell about stolen material

Levi 2008
"indeed, one might...have gone missing"
NK coop solves attrbution capabilities

Levi 2008
"credibility has also emerged...of technical advances"
key to solve future attacks Levi 2006

"it will also be important...could avert tragedy"
More ev
Fory 2006 "Global Strike Issues" march 2006
"during the cold war...help deter aggression"
A2: Intentional Transfer

no risk
Montgomery 2009
"a second possibility...sponsoring regime itself"
No intentional transfer--many reasons

Montgomery 2009
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"while the direct transfer...sponsoring regime itself"
A2: japan
Japan hated bush era terror policies

the economist 9/17/09
"the importance of the...okinawa to guam"
DPJ hated bush era stuff

Tsurumi 2007
"Australian voters replaced...democratic new deal systems"
No japan prolifer schoff 09

"it is impotant to note...change in nuclear policy"
No nuclearization--cost
Green and furukawa
"not surprisingly, hedging...engineering capabilities"
No japan prolif--comparative ev
Hughes 2007
"nevertheless, a hollowing out of...with the united states"
Nuclear Forensics Good
bolstered detection sovles impending attacks

Montgomery 2009
"ultimately, detection can play...partial solution"
Tracking substances deters attacks

science daily 2008
"tracing bomb material...reaching retirement age"
Perception of forensic capabilities deters

miller 2007
"more important than technology...post-explosion attribution"
POLITICS ANSWERS
Snowe and Lincoln jumped ship an hour ago while you were debating
Montgomery 10-1 online
“a sweeping overhaul of…earn less than $250000 a year”
Wont get out of committee

Foley 9-16-09 online
“you’ve heard endlessly…has of getting to 12”
Public option won’t pass – not 60 votes

Nyt 9-30
“after an intense….on the senate floor”
Vote count
Hoover 9-16 online
“senator max Baucus thinks….american medical association”
No votes or committee support

Washington post 9-29 online
“white house officials and senate…to help make it happen”
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Econ collapse doesn’t cause war

Miller 2k interdisciplinary science reviews vol 25 4 proquest
“the question may be
Obama is taking over the npr it will be a radical change in size and posture non unique all the das
Mail and guardian 9/27 online
“united states president barack obama has demanded….world without nuclear weapons”
National security link is non unique

Guantanamo closure
Fabian 9-26
“the obama administration has experienced…mcconnells statement said”
Cia investigations
Hess 9-19 online
“seven former cia directors who served…with the united states”
Public has abandoned obama on national security looks weak now

Rasmussen reports 2009 online
“forty one percent of us voters….34% say its poor”
Obama’s capital is super resilient – network of support allows for issue control
Melber 2008 online
“so even after the gauzy…the economy and Iraq”
Obama’s capital is infinite prefer our ev assumes previous capital spent

The age 3-5-09
“despite america’s struggling…more capital in the bank”
No link NSD
Not go through congress
Beljack 2009 Another hint for a negligence doctrine
“I have been following…nspd 58”
Congress doesn’t know

Cooper 2002 by order of the president pg. 144-5
“the nsds clearly have…and others classified”
Winners win
Clifton and Luban 9-8-09 obama struggles to regain early momentum
“the united states congress returns to work…terms of foreign policy
Plan is spun as middle ground means to bolster nuclear attribution and deterrence
Beljac 2009 The nuke strategy wonk, nuclear forensics and attribution act before congress
“the nuclear forensics and attribution act…or radiological materials”
Congress supports plan = oppose threatening Russia and Pakistan

Levi 2008
“many us policy makers…like Russia and Pakistan”
Resolving the backlash over the continuation of bush’s war on terror is key to health care
Greenwald 2009 online
“paul krugman has an excellent…vowed to subvert”
Dems are angy with obama’s continuation of bush era wot policies plan appeases them
Nyt 9-9-09
“from the gallery overlooking…fractious democratic lawmakers”
Democrats want obama to back away from bush’s anti terror strats
Nyt 9-9
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“William galston, a policy…up the afghan war”
AT: REFERENDUM COUNTERPLAN

Perm-Netbenifit- Referenda do not accurately represent the concerns of the people relative to other issues since they
are only yes or no questions- combining representations is key to solve
Clark ’98 Lexis
“By equating the preferences”…”the world as a whole.”
Public says no- they may favor disarm but favor storage not dismantlement
Harris Interactive May 2002
“When asked by Harris”….”two nuclear arsenals.”
Referendums incite counter lobbies that will force voters to say no

Medelsohn 01
“Even though the pool”…”to all of them.”
Referendum causes massive delay

Swissworld 2005
“Direct democracy enables large”…”inhibiting effect on innovation
Solvency Turn- Holding democratic sessions in the status quo would doom any for future deliberative democracy
success
Kennicott 9’
“Alexis de Tocqueville”…”deliberative democracy” businesses.”
2ac T substantial
We meet plan is historic reduction in the size of the nuclear weapons arsenal context is critical in determining what is
or isn’t substantial
Words and phrases 2007
“the world substantially’ and “accordance with context”
Counterinterp: substantially means large in size or importance

Cambridge dictionary of American English 2000
“substantial/adj large in size, value or importance. He took a substantial amount of money. They do a substantial
portion of their business by phone”
Quantified that means at least 30%

Ferraro. American university law review. Lexis
“the federal circuit noted that” and “court of federal claims”
We meet the c/I weapons awaiting dismantlement are 45% of the nuclear weapons arsenal
Stephen Schwartz “nuclear security spending”
“the u.s. nuclear arsenal currently” and “bulleting of the atomic scientists 64”
The United States federal government should repudiate and ban policies authorizing nuclear use against a
government for inadvertently releasing nuclear material used in an attack against the United States or its allies.
FIRST-The U.S. is losing the war on terror, despite recent gains experts agree the U.S. position is weakening
Foreign Policy September/October 2008 (The Terrorism Index 2008, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?
story_id=4431)
For the first time since the terrorist… the war on terror continues.
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Specifically, acts of nuclear terrorism are inevitable in the status quo-it’s a question of when not if
Allison, 2007 (Graham T., director of Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, “How Likely is a
Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States?,” Council on Foreign Relations, April 16,
http://www.cfr.org/publication/13097/how_likely_is_a_nuclear_terrorist_attack_on_the_united_states.html
I also agree. This debate asks how…the bomb, untested, on Hiroshima.
Terrorists have the means to detonate a nuclear device

Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the
John F. Kennedy School of Government, November 2008 (Securing the Bomb 2008, p. v)
Terrorists are still seeking nuclear weapons… they are effectively secured.
Terrorists will be able to steal nuclear material from Russia

Graham Allison, Harvard Government Prof, 2005 [The American Prospect, "The Gravest Danger," March, LN]
Russia's 12-time-zone expanse contains… padlock and an unarmed guard.
Additionally, lax security makes gaining access to nuclear material in Pakistan relatively simple
Allison 2004 (Graham, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Prof of Government at
Musharraf's alignment with the United… can carry out bin Laden's vision.
And, once terrorists have the necessary fissile material, weaponization is quick and easy
Unfortunately, repeated examinations… and a jack-of-all trades technician.
Moreover, terrorists have multiple points of entry to the U.S., making delivery impossible to stop
Third, terrorists would not find it difficult…smuggle in a nuclear bomb."
Once the bomb has been delivered terrorists have the motive to detonate
Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the
John F. Kennedy School of Government, November 2008 (Securing the Bomb 2008, p. v)
Do terrorists want nuclear weapons… years of the 21st century.”
And, Al Qaeda is preparing for more attacks

Kimery 2009 (Homeland Security Today, "Al Qaeda seen as the primary terrorist threat for many years", August 7th,
2009,http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9715/150/)
“Adaptive and highly resilient,” Al Qaeda… its hands on such weapons.
THERE ARE TWO IMPACT SCENARIOS:
FIRST-U.S. Nuclear Retaliation
Nuclear terrorism in and of itself does not pose an existential threat to survival
Kavan Wolfe 2009 (a Canadian author, IT consultant, “Imaginary Existential Threats”,
http://thewaronbullshit.com/2009/06/25/exaggerated_threats/)
Without venturing into the…bombing of another major city.
The U.S. has made its intent to retaliate against nuclear terrorists attacks with nuclear weapons unambiguously clear
Michael Levi, September 2008 (Deterring State Sponsorship of Nuclear Terrorism, CFR, Special Report No. 39)
That debate took center stage in October… might resort to a nuclear response.
And, the U.S. will target the state from which the nuclear material was acquired-this escalates to nuclear apocalypse
Beljac 2008 (Marko, PhD at Monash University, Teaches at LaTrobe University and the University of Melbourne, "The
nuclear terror of Bush 'negligence policy", June 16th, Eureka Street, Vo 18 No 12,
http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=75850
It was not widely reported, but in February… there is in military posturing.
That escalates to global nuclear war and extinction
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Accordingly, there is a significant and ever-… the use of nuclear weapons.
Central Asia war escalates, drawing in all the great powers culminating in nuclear war
Peimani, 2002 (Hooman, Central Asia and Caucasus specialist at the Department of Peace Studies at the University of
Bradford, “Failed Transition, Bleak Future: War and Instability in Central Asia and the Caucasus”)
The impact of war and instability… many other countries in Asia and Europe.
And, U.S./Russia nuclear wars escalate to extinction

A much greater existential risk emerged… humankind’s potential permanently.
Moreover, threats of retaliation INCENTIVIZE nuclear terrorism—gives terrorists political support needed to carry out
attacks because retaliation would set off a chain of warfare
Beljac 2008 (Marko, PhD at Monash University, Teaches at LaTrobe University and the University of Melbourne,
“Pakistan and the prospects for nuclear terrorism”, Australian Policy Online, February 8th,
http://apo.org.au/commentary/pakistan-and-prospects-nuclear-terrorism)
One disturbing option that has beeen opened… detailed actionable intelligence.
THE SECOND IMPACT SCENARIO IS-Bluffing
The commitment to calculated ambiguity undermines U.S. credibility on terrorism-failure to respond with nuclear
weapons would make deterrence failure inevitable
Uri Fisher, PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado, February 2007
(Deterrence Terrorism and American Values, Homeland Security Affairs, Vol. 3 No. 1)
Currently, the U.S. maintains a position… perhaps overly sensitive to public opinion.
And, a failure to follow through with threatened retaliation would make multiple deterrence failures and collapse of
leadership inevitable-bluffing outweighs resolve-best multivariate studies prove
Anne Sartori, Assc Prof of Poly Sci and Managerial Econ and Decision Sciences @ Northwestern University, 2005
(Deterrence by diplomacy, Princeton UP, pp. 105-109)
If my theory is correct, a reputation for honesty… reputation for resolve also does so.
Independently, this deterrence bluffing sparks competitor CBW attacks

Peter Huessey, President of GeoStrategic Analysis, a defense and national security consulting business and guest
lecturer @ School of Advanced International Affairs, Johns Hopkins University, 29 January 2009 (Nukes for Peace:
Nuclear Terrorism and the State of US Deterrent Policy)
In short, deterrence cannot be a “bluff… biological, or chemical weapons.
Collapse of US leadership causes global instability and major war --- no viable replacement
Robert Knowles 2009, Assistant Professor – New York University School of Law, AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND THE
FOREIGN AFFAIRS CONSTITUTION, Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 41, 2009
First, the "hybrid" hegemonic model assumes that the… consumer, it would suffer the most.
These conflicts go nuclear-leadership difusses them

Kagan 2007 (Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert Kagan (Senior transatlantic
fellow at the German Marshall Fund), “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review, August & September 2007,
pg. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html)
The jostling for status and… make them more catastrophic.
CONTENTION TWO IS RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
Now’s a critical time in the US-Russian relationship-Putin has yet to make up his mind on rapprochement with the US
Stephen Clark 9/24 (Medvedev Suggests Agreement on Iran Sanctions but Putin Still Silent,
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/24/russias-pivot-iran-seen-possible-tradeoff-obama-shelving-missile-shield/)
If President Obama's attempt…Putin has yet to speak his turn.
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Unfortunately-Overt US threats of nuclear retaliation threaten to spillover and damage the entire relationship
Philipp Bleck, a doctoral candidate in international relations at Georgetown University, August 2006 (Would
'Deterrence of Negligence' Reduce the Risk of Catastrophic Terrorism?, Prepared for delivery at the 2006 Annual
Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/5/1/5/4/pages151547/p151547-1.php)
Assuming everything else stays constant… effects on the relationship.
And, Russian relations are key to solve every impact-critical to prevent crisis escalation and war
THE COMMISSION ON U.S. POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA 2009
(US Senate, “THE RIGHT DIRECTION FOR U.S. POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA,” March)
Securing America’s vital national interests… Failure could impose significant costs.
Specifically, Russian cooperation is key to stabilizing Afghanistan-gains in the relationship can easily be lost
THE COMMISSION ON U.S. POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA 2009 (US Senate, “THE RIGHT DIRECTION FOR U.S.
POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA,” March)
The September 11 attacks starkly demonstrated the common threat of terrorism to America and Russia. Moscow has
since provided important assistanceto the United States… terrorism in the region.
Instability in Afghanistan is the most likely scenario for regional war

Ashdown 2007 (July 19, high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2002 until 2006, "We are failing in
Afghanistan", Guardian Unlimited, Online)
The costs of failure in Afghanistan are much more dangerous… security guarantee for Europe.
This war escalates-drawing in all the major powers-goes nuclear

Starr 2001 (December 13, Chair of Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at John Hopkins University, “The War Against
Terrorism and U.S. Bilateral Relations with the Nations of Central Asia,” Testimony before Senate Subcommittee on
Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus)
However, this does not mean that… without imperiling the security of all the others.
CONTENTION THREE IS SOLVENCY
Retaliatory threats gut international cooperation and fosters mistrust of the US—shared intelligence with other
countries is key to containing post-terror-attack responses
Bleek 2007 (Phillip C., Nonresident Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a PhD candidate in the
Department of Government at Georgetown University. This paper was written while he was a Visiting Fellow at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Deterring, Compelling, and Cooperating with States to Bar Non-State
Routes to the Bomb", A collection of Papers From the 2007 PONI Conference Series", CSIS)
Compellence refers to threats of punishment… their cooperation to prevent further attacks.
Lack of international cooperation means states will cover-up stolen materials in the event of terrorist theft
Levi 2008 (Michael A., PhD in war studies, University of London, David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energ and the
environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. former fellow on foreign policy at the Brookings Institute, "Deterring
State Sponsorship of Terrorism", Council Special Report No. 39, September 2008)
Threat perception is, of course… providing others with warning that a theft had occurred.
Cooperation and trust with other states is key to interdict terrorist plots and smuggling chains
Lee 2009 (Rens, author of "Smuggling Armageddon" and a senior fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute, "Toward
an Intelligence-based Nuclear Cooperation Regime", July,
http://www.fpri.org/enotes/200907.lee.intelligencenuclarcooperation.html)
Russian-American collaboration against the spread… time and place that we least expect.
Additionally, the plan spurs international cooperation and information sharing

Michael Levi, September 2008 (Deterring State Sponsorship of Nuclear Terrorism, CFR, Special Report No. 39)
Threatening retaliation against countries like Russia…while explicitly ruling out retribution.
That’s key to international cooperation and preventing the initial attack

Daniel Chivers, assistant research scientist, August 2008 (Before the Day After: Using Pre-Detonation Nuclear
Forensics to Improve Fissile Material Security, Arms Control Association)
The next U.S. administration will face many daunting challenges… material accountability ultimately rests with states.
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GSU Aff Disclosure
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD FUND AND MANDATE ACCELERATED
DISMANTLEMENT OF ITS NUCLEAR WARHEADS SLATED FOR DISMANTLEMENT


First-Accidents
is key to solve
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use inevitable
security calculus
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fa=view&id=946)
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Third-Transparency.
arms reductions
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"Details and Tags".
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Harvard Jordan/Smart (NFU-Terror) [DCH]
<<see Harvard JP??
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Kansas Kennedy/Stone (NFU) [DCH]
Harvard Rd 5
North Korea Advantage
US engaging North Korea now, but it will fail
Bloomberg 9/30
A top U.S. diplomat said…commit to abandoning nuclear weapons
Scenario 1—Arms Race
Failure of North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons ensures a fast regional arms race and Asian economic
collapse
Jackson 7/6/9
“Obama’s nuclear plan could prevent Asian arms race,” examiner
From an East Asian security perspective…arms race described above
Regional arms race goes nuclear

Cirincione 2k
“The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain,” Foreign Policy, Spring
The blocks would fall quickest…use of a nuclear weapon since 1945
Asian recession goes global—causes millions to die and wars everywhere

Lopez 98
“Towards global recession,” Business World, Lexis
The current regional recession in Asia…away from the global recession
Growth prevents conflicts that lead to nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld 8
“The Dangers of a Diminised America,” 10/21, WSJ, Proquest
Pressures to cut defense spending…internal travails with external adventures
Plan solves—North Korean officials have explicitly linked denuclearization to US first use
Jee-ho 9/30
“North says nuclear negotiation ball in US court,” Joong Ang Daily
North Korea has thrown the ball…from the DPRK will go,” he said
Even if the US isn’t the sole reason for North Korean proliferation, the plan makes anti-proliferation efforts credible
Schwartz 8
“U.S. Security Strategy: Empowering Kim Jong-Il?” Lexis (Law Review)
North Korea has long proclaimed that its…global norm of non-proliferation
Scenario 2—War
High risk of war with North Korea now—multiple warrants

MacDonald 9
“Danger Zone,” Maclean’s 122 no29/30 22-4 Ag 3-10
Two months earlier, Yonhap, South…any point in the past two decades
It would cause extinction

Africa News 99
Oct 25, Lexis
If there is one place today where the…normalizing relations with North Korea
Most likely scenario for great power war

Stares 9
2/3, CFR
Why should we care? As a nuclear…uncoordinated actions is considerable
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The plan solves—it de-escalates tensions and prevents nuclear war

Makhijani 3
3/4, ieer.org/op-eds/radio/4nkorea.html
As the world’s attention is focused….North Korea but for all countries
Asian wars will go global

Emmott 8
“Power Rises in the East,” June 4, The Australian, Lexis
The rise of Asia is not just…danger if the relationship goes wrong
High risk of conflict in Asial—several emerging powers

Armacost and Roy 8
“America’s Role in Asia 2008,” asiafoundation.oeg
Despite this, the region needs…to become a “moral normal nation”
Kentucky Rd. 1
Pre-empton Advantage
The list of first use missions is expanding. It creates multiple scenarios for nuclear preemption
Butfoy ‘8
Senior Lecturer in International Relations @ Monash University, Melbourne, Australia [Andy Butfoy, “Washington's
Apparent Readiness to Start Nuclear War,” Survival | vol. 50 no. 5 | October–November 2008 | pp. 115–140]
A study of the opinions of non-US nationals ... policy than perhaps its proponents intend.
This collapses the nuclear firebreak without improving our deterrence – this makes nuclear war possible
Huntley ‘6
However, the Bush Administration’s approach ... significant practical and ethical consequences.
And, merely maintaing the option creates escalating expectations that makes use inevitable under minor
circumstances.
Gerson ‘7
Joseph, Director of Programs of the American Friends Service Committee's New England Regional Office, Peace
News, 8/16, “The Obama-Clinton Nuclear Madness”, http://www.peacenews.info/news/article/406]
I was in Hiroshima, participating in ..., further increased the dangers of nuclear war.
This perception extends globally- the US is perceived as always about to launch, baiting smaller nuclear powers to
break the taboo first.
Glaser & Fetter ‘5
Professor of Public Policy w/ a focus on security and defense policy @ University of Chicago & Professor of Public
Policy w/ a focus on nuclear arms control and nonproliferation @ University of Maryland. [Charles L. Glaser (Deputy
Dean of the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago) & Steve Fetter
(Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland), “Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear
Posture Review's New Missions,” International Security 30.2 (2005) 84-126Project Muse]
A state with vulnerable nuclear ... damage the United States’ international reputation.
Any of these scenarios would result in extinction- must have defense to any potential aggressor to win impact D.
Lopez ‘8
[Bernardo V., “UPSHOT; Nuclear psywar”, Business World, 7/18, Lexis]
With the proliferation of nuclear missiles ... the essence of the war without winners.
And, it causes cascading wars, even if the initial attack doesn’t escalate.
Blair ‘2
2002
Even more dangerously counter-productive ... the nuclear fuse in many regional confrontations.
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An NFU specifically resolves any risk of the impact.

Peng and Rong ‘9
Peng and Rong yu, Peng Guangqian is editor-in-chief of Strategic Sciences and has long been engaged in research
on military strategy and international affairs. Rong Yu is a Ph. D. candidate at the Institute of International Strategy and
Development, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, China Security, Vol. 5 No. 1 Winter
2009, pp. 78-87, World Security Institute, http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Peng_and_Rong.pdf
In crisis situations, both first-use and NFU policies are highly ... power of wars will be under control.
Nothing else can effectively resolve inevitable global nuclear conflicts.

Grossman ‘7
Jerome, the Chairman Emeritus of the Council for a Livable World in Washington, Washington Post Writers Group.
“U.S. should promise no first use of nukes”, 6/15, http://www.cjonline.com/stories/061507/opi_177295240.shtml
When American military officials and ... by declaring a "No First Use" policy.
This also includes the modeling and solvency part of the prolif advantage.
Commitment Trap Add-on

(A) Deterrence collapse inevitable- plan solves perception of necessary retalation.
Sagan in ‘9
Advocates of calculated ambiguity maintain ... nuclear retaliation in the event deterrence fails.
(B) Only retalation would escalate

Speice 6
Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-
Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded
Academic ASAP.
The potential consequences of the unchecked spread ... and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. (53)
ASAT Add-on
(A) Absent ending conventional first use ASAT pre-emption is inevitable, leads to US-China escalation.
Martel and Yoshihara ‘3
The Washington Quarterly, 26.4 (2003) 19-35 http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/washington_quarterly/v026/26.4martel.html
Strategists in the United States and in China ... given that many states depend on satellites for their economic well-
being.
(B) US will escalate with nukes

Barry ‘8
John, Newsweek, Military Section, “It's time for the United States to push for limits to what China and other countries
can do in earth orbit,” http://www.newsweek.com/id/160107, September 21, 2008
Conflict with China is unlikely ... one would not rule out even a nuclear response if those interests were attacked."
PGS Add-on/PGS DA Answers

The plan solves war with North Korea – it de-escalates tensions and prevents escalation
Makhijani 3
Arjun. President of IEER, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California
at Berkeley. He has produced many studies and articles on nuclear fuel cycle related issues, including weapons
production, testing, and nuclear waste, over the past twenty years. 3/4/3. http://www.ieer.org/op-
eds/radio/4nkorea.html.
As the world's attention is focused on Iraq ... not only for North Korea but for all countries.
NFU leads to conventional strike posture

“US Nuclear Weapons Doctrine: Can We Adopt No First Use?” Policy Dialogue Brief, April 4, 2008.
Throughout the Cold War, the United States ... need a mission for weapons they already have.
Conventional upgrades key to US military leadership

Horowitz and Shalmon 9
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Michael C. Horowitz and Dan A. Shalmon, Professor of Political Science @ University of Pennsylvania & Senior
Analyst @ Lincoln Group, LLC. “The Future of War and American Military Strategy,” Orbis, Spring 2009.
Hedging will be the optimal strategy for the U.S. ... generation, but also for the next, as well.
CGS key to prevent erosion of US power projection and credibility

Ochmanek and Schwartz 8
David Ochmanek (Foreign Service of the United States (80 to 85), An officer in the United States Air Force (73 to 78)
and Master of Public Affairs degree from Princeton University) & Lowell H. Schwartz (Ph.D. candidate in War Studies
@ King's College London and M.A. in international affairs @ Johns Hopkins University), The Challenge of Nuclear-
armed Regional Adversaries, 2008
None of the analysis laid out here suggests ... they would have dangerous escalatory potential.
Hegemony solves wars across the globe

Kagan 7
Robert. (Senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund), “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review,
August & September 2007, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html
The jostling for status and influence among these ... involvement will provide an easier path.
GSU Rd. 3 Vs. Fullerton RS

The US's policy of holding potential detonation of its nuclear arsenal over the world is like holding a gun to someone's
head- it is a way for the US to force the world to comply with its wishes. This forces countries to prepare for war or bow
to the US.
Ellsberg 9/11
node/10137.
The squo treats implicit threats of nuclear war as something to trade in negotiations, a bargaining chip. The US says
"we won't strike you if you give us what we ask for"- our pledge not to make these threats delegitimizes
instrumentalization of nuclear weapons. This solves violence of the squo's coercive threats.
Dolar '3
This leads us to the simple conclusion...it moulds our behavior in its very non-completion.
Our status quo policy of threatening first strikes is like an extortionist that sells protection insurance to a local store to
keep the extorionist from destroying the store. We force people into accepting security gaurentees of protection from
nuclear strieks in exchange for utter submission to US security paradigms. This instrumentalizes other nations.
Tilly in '85
Charles Tilly, Prof of Social Science @ Columbia, "Bringing the State Back In," 1985, p. 170-171
In contemporary American parlance,...the government has organized a protection racket.
And, even though the US would not use its nuclear weapons, the implict threat is enough. It militarizes our relations
with the world and depoliticizes nuclear war as a constant spectacle from which all should flee. Thus, the US
simultaneously inflates the value of nukes and asks for others to give up their freedom for their future.
Dolar '3
To make a step further...explicit form of a threat.
Specifically, implicit threats are the worst, they push violent language underground and make the discursive violence
the US employs invisible.
Dolar '3
The threat works at its best...an immaterial, a virtual existence.
And, this process of instrumentalizing implied threats makes war depoliticized and necessary- it becomes self-fulfilling-
we must manufacture threats to force others to seek our protection, but they only need our protection because we
made up the danger. The aff ends this vicious cycle.
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Dabashi in '7
Hamid, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/831/focus.htm, 2007
Once again the drums of war are roaring...that we must learn how to respond.
And, failure to reject the ontology of traditional instrumentalization makes you complicit in perpetuation of a state of
warfare.
Bilgin in '5
Pinar, Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow, Assistant Prof of IR @ Bilken U in Turkey, "Regional Security in the Middle
East: A Critical Perspective," p. 164
Then, given the ways in which...perpetuating regional insecurity in the Middle East.
And, the affirmative rejects an instrumental ontology that allows the exploitation of threats of warfare reducing humans
to calculable objects within the logic of a state of war. (Don't endorse gendered language).
Burke in '7
Anthony Burke, Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR @UNSW, "Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason,"
2007
Heidegger's insights into this phenomenon...strategy as 'the power to hurt.'
This ontology is worse than our nuclear threats.

Zimmerman in '93
Michael, Prof of Philosophy @ Tulane, "Contesting Earth's Future: Radical Ecology and Postmodernity," Pg. 119-120,
1993
Heidegger asserted that human self-assertion...lessened because they were never "disclosed" by humanity.
Plan: The United States federal government should ban first use of its nuclear arsenal.
The role of the ballot is to endorse a political strategy for civic engagement of nuclear institutions.
McClean '1
David, Lecturer in Philosophy @ Molloy College, 2001
Leftist American culture critics might put their...disrespect for the so-called "managerial class."
The undisclosed nature of nuclear policy allows "experts" to control decisions- encouraging citizen envolvement is key
to challenging the discourse.
Taylor '7
Bryan, associate professor in Comms @ U. Colorado-Boulder, "The Means to Match Their Hatred: Nuclear Weapons,
Rhetorical Democracy and Presidential Discourse," Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 37, Iss 4, pg 667-692
First, there is general agreement...in fueling the political fetish of weaponry.
Specific policy perscriptions are key- leaving the alterantive in the hands of (the agent) is not enough.
Martin in '90
Brain, http://www.uow.edu.au/~bmartin/pubs/90uw/uw00.html
In looking at structures such as bureaucracy or...reject them, and take action.
Public engagement on nuclear issues is key to hold policymakers accountable.

Stimson Center '1
"Beyond Deterrence: A Global Approach to Reducing Nuclear Dangers"
Ironically, a full decade out since the end...who act with political impunity.
Debates by researchers of nuclear policy are critical to shaping the way the government acts- failure to do so resutls in
secret changes in posture by the government.
Gabel '5
Josiane, Research assistant @ CSIS, Washington Quarterly, 28:1, Winter 2004-2005
The literature on the role of nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War...help inform and advatnace this debate.
Rejection of predictions ensures bureaucratic norms and regidity.

Fitzsimmons '6
Michael, defense analyst in Washington DC, "The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning," December 1, 2006,
Survival, Vol. 48, Issue 4
Another well-publicised instance where...planning rather than flexibility.
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2AC F/W Cards

Citizen advocacy for government action is a necessary step- it is key to avoid apathy and solve extinction.
Krieger '7
David, Prez Nukclear Age Peace Foundation
U.S. citizens have a critical role...depends on what we do now.
State-centric views of the topic are key to emancipatory politics- the K fails without engaging the state.
Shaw '1
Martin, Professor of IR @ U. Sussex, Review of International Studies, October 2001,
http://www.martinshaw.org/unfinished.pdf
The mistakes in this passage are also...begun to fashion a new agenda.
Freire's utopianism dooms the political allies that are necessary to overcome oppression.
Stanley '72
"Literacy," Paulo Freire
Utopianism is a problem in Freire's thought...would turn out to be in short supply.
Lack of tackling specific forms of oppression makes freire's alternative fail.

Bugbee and Elias 75/76
"Reflections on Griffith, Freire and Beyond," Literacy Discussion
One can hope that Freire will choose to address himself...and all others as oppressors.
And, our argument is empirically true- Freire conceeded his alternative has never worked.
MacEion '72
"Conscientization for the Masses," National Catholic Reporter
For years I have been...he admitted that neither has he.
Standpoint epistemology and social location arguments fetishize an impossible authentic identity.
Rolin in '6
Kristina, "The Bias Paradox in Feminist Standpoint Epistemology," Episteme: A Journal of Social Epistemology, 2006
For a long time feminist standpoint...specify a context of epistemic justification.
GSU Aff Disclosure

Contention 1 – No Disads
Contention 1 is no disads
Size and role

Loukianova 9
Anya. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 8/19/9. http://www.nti.org/e_research/
e3_nuclear_posture_review_ debate.html.
In August 2009, … U.S. security guarantees.
Arms control now – START, CTBT, FMCT

Marlowe 9
Lara Marlowe, Irish Times, 7-7-2009, “Nuclear-free world,” http://www.irishtimes.com/ newspaper/world/2009/0707/
1224250171705.html.
Despite continuing tensions … progress until now.

Plan
The United States federal government should adopt a nuclear no first use policy for state and non-state actors. We can
clarify.
Contention 2 – Proliferation
Contention 2 is proliferation
The world is on the brink of breakout proliferation that will lead to nuclear use – new strategies are key to solve
Wirjawan 9
Gita. Chairman of Ancora International. 6/25/9. Jakarta Post. http://www.thejakartapost.com/ news/2009/06/24/a-
global- nuclear-disorder.html.
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The world is edging … that fragile peace.
2 links
A) Security – even if we don’t detonate these weapons against a state, the policy of first use is akin to holding a gun to
someone’s head – it is the impetus for proliferation
Ellsberg 9/11
node/10137.
Later in 1990, … the rest of the world).
B) Prestige – the policy of first use inscribes military value to nuclear weapons, that reinforces the prestige of the bomb
Mendelsohn 99
Jack Mendelsohn, vice president and executive director of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security (LAWS) in
Washington, DC, is former deputy director of the Arms Control Association, “NATO’s Nuclear Weapons: The Rationale
for ‘No First Use,’” 1999, Arms Control Association,__http://www.armscontrol.org/ print/520__
The United States affirms … own nuclear arsenals.
Proliferation will be fast – multiple reasons

Utgoff 2
Victor A., Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division, Institute for Defense Analyses, “Proliferation,
Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” Survival, v. 44 n. 2, Summer 2002, p. 86-87.
As proliferation continues, … overcome all restraint.
Leads to miscalc and nuclear use

Drell and Goodby 8
Sidney (professor of physics emeritus at Stanford University and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution) and
James (a former U.S. ambassador, is currently a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a nonresident senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution). Summer 2008. The Washington Quarterly. “The Reality: A Goal of a World without
Nuclear Weapons Is Essential.” Muse.
Being caught in … a nuclear exchange.
You should err aff on this risk calculus – we only have to right in one instance
Knopf 2
Jeffrey, Department of National Security Affairs at Naval Postgraduate School, Security Studies, “Recasting the
Proliferation Optimism-Pessimism Debate”, Oct. 2002.
DEVELOPING AND testing theories … to run the experiment.”24
Additionally, this is the most dangerous form of proliferation – US policy encourages modeling that ensures first strikes
Ellsberg 9/11
node/10137.
This leads to Russian, Israeli and North Korean aggression

Hitchens 3
Theresa, Vice President, Center for Defense Information Presented at a conference on U.S. NUCLEAR POLICY AND
COUNTERPROLIFERATION http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/ counterproliferation- conference.cfm
The goal of the … it's own nuclear aggression?
Russian aggression against Chechnya goes nuclear

Pandita 1
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Dr. K.N., obtained his M.A. in Persian from the Panjab U and Ph.D. in Iranian from Teheran U, He served as a long
time as professor in the Persian Department and the Centre of Central Asian Studies @ the Jammu and Kashmir U,
__http://www.kashmir- information.com/KNPandita/ article9.html__.
This decision of the … or in the Caucasus?
Israel-Iran conflict leads to worldwar 3

Ivashov 7
Leonid, analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation, 4/21, Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War, http://www.megachip.info/
modules.php?name=Sections&op= viewarticle&artid=3871
What might cause … nightmarish than WWII.
High risk escalation

Kam 7
Ephraim, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head @ Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/
memoranda/memo88.pdf
The statements by … risk do not yet exist.
North Korean war leads to extinction

Africa News 99
October 25, LN.
If there is one … relations with North Korea.
Deterrence theory doesn’t apply in this world of nuclear weapons

Kreiger and Ong 2
David and Carah, “No First Use,” president and director of publications research at the Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, April 2002.
The fact that the … with a weapon of mass destruction.
The plan reshapes doctrines globally – ensures first strike is an illegitimate use of nuclear weapons
Sagan 9
Nuclear declaratory policy … or potential nuclear-weapons acquisition.
Finally, you should view negative arguments with skepticism – they exaggerate the benefits of deterrence and the
costs of a no first use policy
Sagan 9
Stanford University, “The Case for No First Use,” June 5, 2009, Routledge, International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Is the threat of … event that deterrence fails’.

Contention 3 – India
Contention 3 is India
First, India and Pakistan are on the brink of conflict in the status quo
Bhatt 9
Sheela Bhatt, India Abroad, “Pakistan Simmers Again; India, world, Feel the Heat,” March 20, 2009, Vol. 39, Issue 25,
pg. A20
However, Zardari's policies … same - more terrorism.
India will model a US no first use pledge – it’s key to preventing escalation
Sagan 9
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The best example … in the opposite direction.
US first use policy influences Indian strategists to broaden the role and size of its nuclear arsenal – this causes
Pakistani nuclear expansion
Koshy 9
Ninan, Fellow Harvard Law , 6/4/9. “Maximizing minimum nuclear deterrence”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/
South_Asia/KF04Df03.html.
The new Indian Minister … we are witnessing now.
That causes offensive systems to be emphasized – leads to instability

Khan 9
Feroz Hassan, Fellow Woodrow Wilson Center , PAKISTAN’S PERSPECTIVE ON THE GLOBAL ELIMINATION OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, March, http://www.stimson.org/pub. cfm?ID=798.
India’s strategic modernization … perceives from India.
Offensive doctrinal shifts guarantee a nuclear exchange – deterrence will fail

Kapur 8
(S. Paul.-, National Security Affairs Naval Postgraduate School, International Security, “Ten Years of Instability in a
Nuclear South Asia...”, Fall Lexis) __http://iis-db.stanford.edu/ pubs/22297/isec.2008.33.2.pdf__.
As noted above, nuclear … in a largely rational manner.
Extinction
Washington Times 1
July 8, LN.
The most dangerous … Material/Cut-off Convention.
GSU Round 1
versus Harvard JP
Aff—NFU Prolif, S. Asia
Neg—Weaponitis, Defense of Last Resort, Allied Prolif Da, Healthcare Good Politics
AT Allied Prolif DA
Plan solves allied prolif – inevitable now
Sagan 9
Given the current superiority…changes in declaratory policy.
1AR
Allied prolif now—NMD cut killed confidence in the umbrella, guarantees nuclear tipping point for our allies
David 9.18
mod=googlenews_wsj]
The "smarter" missile-defense system …ability to protect them.
Missile defense decision guarantees allied proliferation through Europe, Japan and the Middle East now
David 9.18
mod=googlenews_wsj]
Start with Japan. Tokyo has … Iran on its own.
Obama’s pledges already triggered the link
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Halloran 9
Richard. 5/27/9. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2009/05/27/2003444613.
In addition, Japanese noted … Japan’s nuclear defense.
No Japan nuclearization – multiple constraints

Chanlett-Avery and Nikitin 9
Emma (specialist in Asian affairs) and Mary Beth (analyist in nonproliferation). “Japan’s nuclear future: policy debate,
prospects, and US interests.” Congressional Research Service. 2/19/9. Online.
This paper examines the … approach is analyzed.
Japanese nuclearization doesn’t trigger proliferation

White 8
Hugh. Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian
National University. 7/17/8. http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2008/07/A-nuclear-Japan-The-least-bad-option.aspx.
Second, more specifically, … because Japan had them?
No link
Fukuyama and Umbeyashi 9
“Japan ready for ‘no nukes’.” Google.
In fact, there are signs…Japan is ready.
AT DLR
Only a risk of a solvency deficit – no real threat
Some conference participants questioned…mating warheads to missiles.
CP is squo
Some participants were not sure that NFU…in extenuating circumstances.
Only escalation in the CP

Bernstein et al 82
www.nybooks.com/articles/6489
Draper is right to be skeptical …Europe means nuclear war.
Politics 2AC
Healthcare won’t pass
Lightman 9-17-09 www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/1238775.hmtl
“little consensus”
Healthcare derailed by future controversy

Hornick 9-8-09 edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/08/congress.priorities
“possibility of taking up a second stimulus plan”
Snowe’s key—will vote against

Goldstein 9-16-09 http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/19962
“Democrats aren’t even certain to get everyone with a “D” after their name”
Afghanistan hurts capital

Dimascio 9-16-09 www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27202.html
“drop-off couldn’t come at a worse time for Obama”
Congress only cares about numbers of nukes—not doctrine
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Amy Woolf ‘7 Nonproliferation Review 14 (3)

“divided jurisdiction over nuclear weapons policy”
Winners win
Plan is a win
Cirincione ‘8 http://lostintransition.nationaljournal.com/2008/11/arms-control.php
“represent an early political victory”
Key to agenda
Johnathan Singer ‘9 www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428
“political capital can be regenerated”
Public o/w military

Steinbruner and Gallagher ‘8 www.armscontrol.org/print/2615
“evoke broad public approval despite the resistance they might encounter in their security bureaucracies”
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Kentucky Cavalier/Gort (NFU) [DCH]
Kentucky CG
GSU Aff Disclosure

1AC – Advantage 1.0
Advantage One – Thinkability –
Obama intends to maintain first use of nuclear weapons
Daniel Ellsberg, Phd from Harvard in Economics, former military analyst for Rand, “Ending Terrorism: By America and
Others”, MWC News, 8/9/2009 http://mwcnews.new/content/view/32385&Itemid=1
“Perhaps most dangerously…governments of the world”
And, Nuclear threats lower the threshold for nuclear use
Scott D. Sagan, Assoc Prof of Poly Sci, “The commitment Trap, Why the United States Should not Use Nuclear
Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks”, International Security, Vol. 24, Spring 2000 pg. 111
“the greatest danger created…against its strategic costs”
And, The plan is vital to maintain the firebreak that stops nuclear use
Nina Tannenwald, Director of the International Relations Program and Joukowsky Family Research Assistant
Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, “Stigmatizing the Bomb,” International
Security, Spring 2005, project muse
What are the future …any use of nuclear weapons.
Credible nuclear firewall solves extinction
Schwartz, William A., and Charles Derber, Phd. From U Chicago, et al The Nuclear Seduction: Why the Arms Race
Doesn't Matter--And What Does. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990
http://ark.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft1n39n7wg/
Before examining whether the … to large-scale thermonuclear war."[13]
1AC – Advantage 2
Advantage 2 - NPT
Scenario A. 2010 NPT Review Conference
Negative security assurances are the most important issue for the 2010 Review Conference- US first use option will
collapse the conference and the NPT
George Bunn, the first general counsel for the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, helped negotiate the
nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and later became U.S. ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament and Jean du
Preez, director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies in the Monterey Institute of International Studies , “More Than Words: The Value of U.S. Non-Nuclear-Use
Promises”, Arms Control Association, July 2007 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_07-08/NonUse
Although it is too early … having them.
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And, failure to declare No-First-Use causes rapid proliferation in 2010
V.R. Raghavan, President Centre for Security Analysis Nuclear Abolition: Need for a Phased Plan, 2009 February,
Inability to agree by 2010 …States give its allies.
Scenario B – Article 6
NFU commitments are key to strengthening article six norms
Matt Martin, et al. Program Officer, Policy Analysis and Dialogue, The Stanley Foundation, “The Stanley Foundation:A
NEW LOOK AT NO FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” MaximsNews Network, August 22, 2008
“NFU could also affect US policy…children not to smoke”
Failure to reinvigorate article 6 collapses the NPT and causes rapid and escalatory nuclear wars
Harald Muller, director of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt in Germany and a professor of international relations
at Frankfurt University, “The Future of Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World”, The Washington Quarterly 31.2
2008 63-75
The NPT is the cornerstone ….are available to terrorists.
The NPT provides deterrence for states who seek nuclear weapons – collapse causes rapid proliferation
Wade L. Huntley, Director of the Simons Centre, Liu Institute, University of British Columbia, “Nuclear Nonproliferation:
Time for New Thinking?”, Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research, March 3, 2007
A somewhat longer term …respect to one another.
Prolif risks nuclear war --- even small disagreements will escalate
Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional
Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, Avoiding a Nuclear
Crowd, Policy Review June & July 2009 http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html
There are limits, … would ever want.
1AC – Advantage 2
No first use solves extinction
Tadatoshi Akiba, Ph. D. from MIT, Councillor at the World Future Council, “Letter of Request, His Excellency George
W. Bush” July 7, 2005
“The world today teeters…of the human race”
India is moving away from their No-First-Use doctrine which guarantees escalatory nuclear war with Pakistan --- only a
strict No-First-Use commitment from the U.S. can prevent this
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Scott D. Sagan, Professor of political science and co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and
Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use”, Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3 June 2009 pages 163-182
“US behaviour is in fact..in the opposite direction”
Ninan Koshy, formerly Visiting Fellow, Harvard Law School, “ Maximizing minimum nuclear deterrence”, Asia Times
Online, 6-4-09 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF04Df03.html
The new Indian Minister of State …is what we are witnessing now.
New india-pakistan arms race causes offensive posturing
Feroz Khan, faculty of the US Naval Postgraduate School. He is a former director of Arms Control and Disarmament
Affairs in Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, Joint Services Quarters, The Henry L. Stimson Center, “Pakistan’s
perspective on the global elimination of nuclear weapons”, March, 2009
www.stimson.org/nuke/pdf/PAKISTAN_ISRAEL.pdf
India’s strategic modernization program…it perceives from India.
No deterrence in a world of offensive nuclear doctrines – nuclear escalation is inevitable
S. Paul. Kapur, National Security Affairs Naval Postgraduate School, International Security, “Ten Years of Instability in
a Nuclear South Asia”, Fall 2008
As noted above, nuclear … largely rational manner.
India-Pakistan Nuclear exchange causes massive ozone depletion, infectious disease outbreaks, famine, food riots,
and escalatory war– one billion deaths from starvation alone
John Loretz, Program Director, IPPNW, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, “2008 NPT
PrepCom”, May 16, 2008, http://www.ippnw.org/ResourceLibrary/NPTPrepCom2008.pdf
“The studies looked at…to food supplies”
Nuclear escalation causes extinction

Ghulam Nabi Fai, Washington Times, 7-8-2001
The most dangerous …enjoy no sanctuary.
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Kentucky Gautam/O’Donnell (NFU) [DCH]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Advantage One – Thinkability –
Obama intends to maintain first use of nuclear weapons
Daniel Ellsberg, Phd from Harvard in Economics, former military analyst for Rand, “Ending Terrorism: By America and
Others”, MWC News, 8/9/2009 http://mwcnews.new/content/view/32385&Itemid=1
“Perhaps most dangerously…governments of the world”
And, Nuclear threats lower the threshold for nuclear use
Scott D. Sagan, Assoc Prof of Poly Sci, “The commitment Trap, Why the United States Should not Use Nuclear
Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks”, International Security, Vol. 24, Spring 2000 pg. 111
“the greatest danger created…against its strategic costs”
And, The plan is vital to maintain the firebreak that stops nuclear use
Nina Tannenwald, Director of the International Relations Program and Joukowsky Family Research Assistant
Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, “Stigmatizing the Bomb,” International
Security, Spring 2005, project muse
What are the future …any use of nuclear weapons.
Credible nuclear firewall solves extinction
Schwartz, William A., and Charles Derber, Phd. From U Chicago, et al The Nuclear Seduction: Why the Arms Race
Doesn't Matter--And What Does. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990
http://ark.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft1n39n7wg/
Before examining whether the … to large-scale thermonuclear war."[13]
1AC – Advantage 2
Advantage 2 - NPT
Scenario A. 2010 NPT Review Conference
Negative security assurances are the most important issue for the 2010 Review Conference- US first use option will
collapse the conference and the NPT
George Bunn, the first general counsel for the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, helped negotiate the
nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and later became U.S. ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament and Jean du
Preez, director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies in the Monterey Institute of International Studies , “More Than Words: The Value of U.S. Non-Nuclear-Use
Promises”, Arms Control Association, July 2007 http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_07-08/NonUse
Although it is too early … having them.
And, failure to declare No-First-Use causes rapid proliferation in 2010
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V.R. Raghavan, President Centre for Security Analysis Nuclear Abolition: Need for a Phased Plan, 2009 February,
Inability to agree by 2010 …States give its allies.
Scenario B – Article 6
NFU commitments are key to strengthening article six norms
Matt Martin, et al. Program Officer, Policy Analysis and Dialogue, The Stanley Foundation, “The Stanley Foundation:A
NEW LOOK AT NO FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” MaximsNews Network, August 22, 2008
“NFU could also affect US policy…children not to smoke”
Failure to reinvigorate article 6 collapses the NPT and causes rapid and escalatory nuclear wars
Harald Muller, director of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt in Germany and a professor of international relations
at Frankfurt University, “The Future of Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World”, The Washington Quarterly 31.2
2008 63-75
The NPT is the cornerstone ….are available to terrorists.
The NPT provides deterrence for states who seek nuclear weapons – collapse causes rapid proliferation
Wade L. Huntley, Director of the Simons Centre, Liu Institute, University of British Columbia, “Nuclear Nonproliferation:
Time for New Thinking?”, Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Research, March 3, 2007
A somewhat longer term …respect to one another.
Prolif risks nuclear war --- even small disagreements will escalate
Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, Avoiding a Nuclear
Crowd, Policy Review June & July 2009 http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html
There are limits, … would ever want.
1AC – Advantage 2
No first use solves extinction
Tadatoshi Akiba, Ph. D. from MIT, Councillor at the World Future Council, “Letter of Request, His Excellency George
W. Bush” July 7, 2005
“The world today teeters…of the human race”
India is moving away from their No-First-Use doctrine which guarantees escalatory nuclear war with Pakistan --- only a
strict No-First-Use commitment from the U.S. can prevent this
Scott D. Sagan, Professor of political science and co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and
Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use”, Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3 June 2009 pages 163-182
“US behaviour is in fact..in the opposite direction”
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Ninan Koshy, formerly Visiting Fellow, Harvard Law School, “ Maximizing minimum nuclear deterrence”, Asia Times
Online, 6-4-09 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF04Df03.html
The new Indian Minister of State …is what we are witnessing now.
New india-pakistan arms race causes offensive posturing
Feroz Khan, faculty of the US Naval Postgraduate School. He is a former director of Arms Control and Disarmament
Affairs in Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, Joint Services Quarters, The Henry L. Stimson Center, “Pakistan’s
perspective on the global elimination of nuclear weapons”, March, 2009
www.stimson.org/nuke/pdf/PAKISTAN_ISRAEL.pdf
India’s strategic modernization program…it perceives from India.
No deterrence in a world of offensive nuclear doctrines – nuclear escalation is inevitable
S. Paul. Kapur, National Security Affairs Naval Postgraduate School, International Security, “Ten Years of Instability in
a Nuclear South Asia”, Fall 2008
As noted above, nuclear … largely rational manner.
India-Pakistan Nuclear exchange causes massive ozone depletion, infectious disease outbreaks, famine, food riots,
and escalatory war– one billion deaths from starvation alone
John Loretz, Program Director, IPPNW, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, “2008 NPT
PrepCom”, May 16, 2008, http://www.ippnw.org/ResourceLibrary/NPTPrepCom2008.pdf
“The studies looked at…to food supplies”
Nuclear escalation causes extinction

Ghulam Nabi Fai, Washington Times, 7-8-2001
The most dangerous …enjoy no sanctuary.
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Michigan State Gliniecki/Shore (NFU) [DCH]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Prolif Advantage:
First, US strategy of nuclear ambiguity fails to contain proliferation- a declaration of no first use would set international
norms, underscore commitment to the NPT, and reduce the salience of nuclear weapons
Laird, National Security Analyst at the Carnegie Council on Ethics in International Policy, 2009 (Burgess, “A Guide to
the Challenges Facing President Obama’s Nuclear Abolition Agenda,” July 21,
http://www.cceia.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0025.html)
There is another initiative… non-proliferation efforts.
Second, a U.S. declaration of no first use would change strategic calculations of nuclear weapons states- further
expansion of offensive nuclear weapons capabilities causes modernization and arms races
Krieger and Ong 2002(David & Carah, president and Director of Publications and Research at the Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, Apr, “No First Use,” http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/04/00_krieger_no-first-use.htm
In March 2002,… that may attack it with a weapon of mass destruction.
Nuclear proliferation causes extinction

Utgoff 02 (Victor, Deputy Director for Strategy, Forces and Resources at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Survival,
“Proliferation, Missile Defense and American Ambitions”, Volume 44, Number 2, Summer, p. 87-90)
First, the dynamics of getting to… cities or even whole nations
Theories of deterrence in a world of proliferation are wrong

Karl Heinz Chock, Professor of Political Science at the University of Vienna 2006, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons –
More May be Worse, www.iuvienna.edu/788_EN-Documents-PDFs-Spread-of-Nuclear-Weapons-Paper.pdf -
Walt’s rational deterrence… compatible with assured protection. (Whitmore)
We’ll prempt your inevitability claims- prolif isn’t inevitable – satisfying key security conditions negates the desire for
nuclear weapons
Sagan, Professor of political science and co-director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation,
2006 (Scott, Foreign Affairs, September-October, Lexis)
But both deterrence… guarantees to Tehran.
Nuclear proliferation has reached a tipping point- now is a vital time to deescalate tensions
CFR 2009 (Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task force chaired by William J Perry and Brent Scowcroft
under Project Director Charles Ferguson, “US Nuclear Weapons Policy,” April, entire report available at
http://www.cfr.org/publication/19226/us_nuclear_weapons_policy.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fby_type
%2Ftask_force_report)
Despite nearly universal opposition… it will increase.
Independently, US declaratory postures creates a perverse incentive for horizontal proliferation- it’s the best incentive
FOR nuclear acquisition
NFU incentives new nuclear states- increase credibility with the US
LYNN WALSH., editor, April 2002 http://www.socialismtoday.org/64/nuclear.html
The US, however, is now… retaliation against the US
This rogue state acquisition and horizontal proliferation vastly increases the chances of miscalculation and accidental
nuclear war
Grotto and Cirincione, ’08 (Andrew, Center American Progress, Joseph, if you need to ask you don’t work hard
enough, Center American Progress, November,
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/11/pdf/nuclear_posture.pdf)
Rogue state acquisition… nuclear weapons more attractive for weaker powers.
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Miscalculation causes extintion

PR NEWSWIRE 98 [“NEJM STUDY WARNS OF INCREASING RISK OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR ATTACK; OVER
6.8 MILLION IMMEDIATE U.S. DEATHS POSSIBLE,” APR 29, LN]
Despite the end of the Cold War,… billions of casualties worldwide.
Nuclear Terror Advantage:

NFU key to delegitimize the use of nuclear weapons – that’s key to prevent nuclear terrorism.
Sagan, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation, 2009 (Scott, Survival, June-July, pp.171-172)
It has been widely argued, especially… against non-combatants.21
Nuclear terrorist attacks will cause extinction

Sid-Ahmed 04 (Mohamed, Egyptian Political Analyst, 8/26/04¸ “Extinction!”)
What would be the consequences… we will all be losers.
Comparatively, nuclear terrorism is most likely threat to the US

There is no single greater …HEU monitoring removed.4
Soft Power Advantage:

US lack of nonproliferation credibility causes a loss of soft power
Deepti Choubey, Deputy director of the Nonproliferation Program at the Carnegie Endowment, former director of the
Peace and Security Initiative (PSI) for the Ploughshares Fund, Master of International Affairs, with a focus on South
Asia security policy, from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, 2008
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/new_nuclear_bargains.pdf
Forty years after the NPT… power competition.
We’ll preempt your alt cause arguments- reverse causal evidence that nonproliferation spills over and overwhelms
those issues
A final challenge… position, remains intact.
Soft power is key to solve a laundry list of harms

Lex Rieffel, Former U.S. Treasury official and a graduate professor at George Washington University, 2005, “Reaching
Out: Americans Serving Overseas”, NM, http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/20051207rieffel.pdf
Accordingly, one of the great… on “soft” instruments
Soft power vital internal link to hegemony

Nye 04 (Joseph S., Professor of International Relations at Harvard. “Soft Power and American Foreign Policy,”
Summer 2004, Political Science Quarterly, Volume 119, Issue 2; page 255, proquest, download date: 9-21-07)
In the global information age… We cannot afford that.
Decline in US hegemony leads to an apolar world of plagues, economic stagnation and nuclear wars
Niall Ferguson is Herzog professor of history at New York University's Stern School of Business and senior fellow at
the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “A world without power,” Foreign Policy July 1, 2004
So what is left?... a not-so-new world disorder.
Independently, NFU shores up US credibility at the NPT and for compromise

Butfoy, senior lecturer in international relations at Monash University, 2008 (Andy, Survival, October/November,
InformaWorld online)
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Washington's claim that… most of its key allies.52

Without movement by the RevCon the US will wreck its reputation
Progress on disarmament… standing in the world.
China Modernization Advantage:

US NFU pledge key to solve Chinese modernization
Arbatov, Chair of the non-proliferation program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, 2008 (Alexei, “Non-First Use as a
Way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons,” November, http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf)
In this context a real… the USA and China.
Major Chinese nuclear expansion would cause Asian domino effect – causes Taiwanese, Japanese, Russian, Indian,
and Pakistani prolif – destroys regional stability.
Moltz, Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, 2006 (James Clay, Nonproliferation Review, November,
pp.599-600)
The major proliferation… proliferation problems.
Deterrence fails in Asia – new arms races cause instability and nuclear conflict.
Cimbala, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University, 2008 (Stephen J., Comparative
Strategy, Vol 27 No 2, pp.120-1)
The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia… marginalization of major interstate warfare.
Change in US nuclear posture key – the impacts are accidental nuclear war, allied prolif, and US/Sino relations.
Yuan, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2007 (Jing-
Dong, Nonproliferation Review, July, available online via InformaWorld)
China's nuclear doctrine remains subordinate… continued rise as a major global power.
Plan: The United States Federal Government should prohibit the use of the United States Federal Government's
explosive devices designed to release the energy that accompanies the splitting or combining of atomic nuclei for
destructive purposes against an organization or government that has not used an explosive device designed to release
the energy that accompanies the splitting or combining of atomic nuclei for destructive purposes against another
organization or government
And we solve,
Universal NFU key to solve – only way to devalue possession of nuclear weapons
Rebecca Johnson, Spring 2009, disarmament diplomacy, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd90/90sa.htm
“The problem with the traditional approaches…obligations and responsibilities.”
We can solve without verification – implemented NFU creates a new multilateral norm
Rebecca Johnson, Spring 2009, disarmament diplomacy, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd90/90sa.htm
“Unlike the nuclear weapon convention…security in the real world.”
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Michigan State Lanning/Wunderlich (NFU) [DCH]
Michigan State LW
CBWs Adv
US threat of nuclear first strike in response to chemical and biological weapons simultaneously increases the risk that
these weapons are accidentally launched and that the US is forces to respond with nuclear weapons
Stanford University 2000 “The Commitment Trap: Why the United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter
Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks”
The fifth and final … nuclear attack has occurred.
Explicit change in US doctrine is vital even under the Obama administration- ambiguity allows government officials to
make statements of nuclear threats
A central reason why … ambiguity and commitment.
Bioweapons represent the single greatest risk of extinction

Richard Ochs, BS in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University, with honors, 2002 BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS MUST BE IMMEDIATELY ABOLISHED, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons … IS NOW POSSIBLE.
US nuclear retaliation would cause extinction

The American Prospect, 2/26/01
The bitter disputes …war by checklist, by rote."
Nuclear weapons have no deterrent capabilities against chemical and biological weapons- conventional deterrence
solves better
Tom Milne, Staff Member, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, 2002,
http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/milne.htm
To reiterate, for the … nuclear weapons had been renounced.

AT: Japan ReArm DA
Neg links ignore changed political environment in Japan – they won’t nuclearize in response to NFU.
Fukuyama and Umebayashi, secretary general of the Japan Congress Against A- and H-Bombs and special adviser to
Peace Depot, 2009 (Shingo and Hiromichi, Japan Times, August 25, http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-
bin/eo20090825a1.html)
It is distressing to note that …you. Japan is ready.
No shot of nuclearization – new election increased anti-nuclear movement.

Wittner, professor of history at the State University of New York–Albany, 9/4 (Lawrence, Foreign Policy in Focus,
“Japan's Election and Anti-Nuclear Momentum,” http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6401)
Although the smashing … vision to pragmatic politics.
Turn- first use pledge strengthens forces for Japanese rearm

Mitsuru Kurosawa Professor Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University 3-11-2004
http://serv.peace.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp/image/Kurosawa.pdf
In addition, the United States …states parties to the NPT.
Conventional weapons key to Japanese security umbrella – prefer our evidence, which speaks to Japan’s perception.
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Schoff, Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, 2009 (James, “Realigning
Priorities: The US-Japan Alliance and the Future of Extended Deterrence,” March,
http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf)
Many Japanese scholars … on the conventional aspects.
US nuclear umbrella shot now- not credible

Selig Harrison, specialized in South Asia and East Asia for fifty years as a journalist and scholar , Fall 2006
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/wopj.2006.23.3.1
In South Korea, the withdrawal … a second Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”20

China Mediation Adv
NFU key to US-China nuclear cooperation – that’s key to solve for North Korean conflict escalation.
Wu, associate of the Managing the Atom Project, 2008 (Anne Wu is also at associate at the International Security
Program of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University s Kennedy School, Providence
Journal-Bulletin, October 27, Lexis Academic)
China s crucial role … both parties and the world.
Continued North Korean nuclearization causes Asian arms races and escalating conflict.
Jackson, Founder and Executive Editor of Asia Chronicle, 2009 (Van Jackson, also a Contributing Analyst for Foreign
Policy in Focus and a nationally recognized expert in U.S.-Asia relation, Examiner, July 6, http://www.examiner.com/x-
16317-DC-Asia-Policy-Examiner~y2009m7d6-Obamas-nuclear-plan-could-prevent-Asian-arms-race)
From an East Asian security … arms race described above.
We control uniqueness – recent diplomatic moves won’t solve without Chinese intervention.
Yonhap 8/22 (2009, Lexis Academic)
A U.S. expert on Korea …China is the host of the six-party talks.
Cooperation over North Korea is key to establish a forum for multilateral cooperation in Asia.
Haggard and Noland, Professor at the UC-San Diego Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies,
and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2008 (Stephan and Marcus, “A Security and
Peace Mechanism for Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension,” April,
http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb08-4.pdf)
A continuing leitmotif of … Security Mechanism (NEAPSM).
That’s key to solve the spread of infectious disease.

Tanaka, Senior Fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange, 2007 (Hitoshi, East Asia Insights, April,
http://www.jcie.or.jp/insights/2-2.html)
The East Asian region … an "East Asia Security Forum."
Diseases cause human extinction

Ryan, M.D., 1997 (Frank, virus X, p. 366)
How might the human … pandemic virus cause the extinction of the human species?
India Pakistan Advantage

India’s posture of nuclear ambiguity raises the chances of nuclear war by accident or in a future war- US NFU
declaration will be modeled by India which massively reduces the risk of war
International Security and Cooperation, 2009 (Scott, Survival, June-July, p.173)
US officials have long … in the opposite direction
Independently, there are a dozen scenarios that could result undermine stability between India and Pakistan
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John E. Peters et al, RAND Corporation, 2006 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG367-1.pdf
Many forces work … the South Asian region.
US NFU shores up US credibility to mediate India-Pakistan conflict and stop escalation

Patterson, professor at the UW Medical School, 2002 (Jeffrey J., also a U.S. delegate from Physicians for Social
Responsibility to the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, Capital Times, June 13, Lexis
Academic)
In the past few …nuclear weapons forever. *
No restraint in the wake of an Indian air assault – nuclear escalation

Stratfor ‘8 (Strategic Forecasting -- December 3rd --
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081203_india_pakistan_dynamics_conflict)
Even the border between … that cannot be ignored.
Even if the conflict never goes nuclear, insurgents still acquire nuclear weapons.
Friedman ‘8 (George – CEO of Stratfor – Stratfor -- December 8, 2008 --
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081208_next_steps_indo_pakistani_crisis)
Islamabad also … the Pakistanis find unlikely.
That independently triggers nuclear war

Wallis ‘8 (Paul – co-founder of Stroma – and, during 2002, was elected a Fellow of the Institute of Analysts and
Programmers. He also blogs at keystonesandrivets.com and has had his articles appear in Digital Journal – Digital
Journal -- August 18th -- http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/258755)
If you were looking … their rhetoric ever came true.
Even a limited war between India and Pakistan would cause extinction
Alexis Madrigal, Energy Science Tech and Journalist, 4-7-2008, Wired, “Regional Nuclear War Would Cause
Worldwide Destruction,” http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/regional-nuclea.html
Imagine that the long-simmering …structure of the atmosphere itself.
We’ll preempt your generic deterrence arguments- it fails in the context of India/Pakistan because there is no lead time
Savail Hussain, economist, about to begin graduate work at University College London, 8-8-2004
http://www.chowk.com/articles/7840
In the case of India and Pakistan … creating a nuclear bomb.

Carriers Advantage
US NFU causes an expansion of conventional capabilities but there’s no risk of offense- no fist use pledge means
there’s no risk of escalation from these conventional buildups
Matt Martin, Program Officer, Policy Analysis and Dialogue, The Stanley Foundation Scott and Sagan, Co-Director of
CISAC and Professor of Political Science, Stanford University, 8-22-2008
Conference participants noted … LeMay would be rolling in his grave.”
US shift to conventional weapons vital to maintaining aircraft carriers. These carriers are the vital internal link to
maritime security, diplomacy and humanitarian efforts
Mackenzie Eaglen is Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at The Heritage Foundation, 8-1-2008
http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed080108b.cfm
It might take all summer to …heighten or ease political pressure.
Maritime security is vital to trade, economy and ending illegal trafficing

Mackenzie Eaglen is Senior Policy Analyst and Eric Sayers is a Research Assistant for National Security at The
Heritage Foundation, 3-24-2009 http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed032409b.cfm
Beyond the vagaries of history …, and among nation states.

Now key- it is too dangerous to postpone development of maritime power
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Mackenzie Eaglen is Senior Policy Analyst and Eric Sayers is a Research Assistant for National Security at The
Heritage Foundation, 3-24-2009 http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed032409b.cfm
Solutions to complex … inept force planning model.
Decline in US hegemony leads to an apolar world of nuclear wars

So what is left? Waning empires. …such a not-so-new world disorder.
Russia Advantage
Russia has adopted an expansionist policy in the wake of the war with Georgia- military basing and posture proves
that this is the case
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in
the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation, 3-19-2009
http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/tst031909a.cfm#_ftn1
Since the …the Kremlin for transit.
Without a US NFU pledge, there are the conditions for the most likely breakout of WWIII- “first use” makes hot war
hotter and magnifies the risks of accidents
Nicholas Thompson, senior editor of Wired Magazine, 5-11-2009 http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/will-
obama-give-up-americas-nuke-first-strike/
President Obama wants … attack by biological weapons.”
Even if that hot war is only a limited nuclear exchange it will cause extinction- wind and smoke create an apocalyptic
scenario
Toon ’07 (et al, O. B. Toon -- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and
Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, -- “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional
scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism” – Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics – April 19th --
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/1973/2007/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)
We assess the potential … as we propose are executable.
None of your impact defense makes sense in the context of actual nuclear exchange- very short lead times and
heightened threats change the calculus of decision makers
Ron Rosenbaum, graduated from Yale University in and won a Carnegie Fellowship to attend Yale's graduate
program, . He wrote for the The Village Voice for several years, leaving in 1975 after which he wrote for Esquire,
Harper's, High Times, Vanity Fair, New York Times Magazine, and Slate 5-9-2009
http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/3
According to a recent … targets in less than 15 minutes.
There is a presumption in favor of use- military planners lower the threshold for introduction of nuclear weapons-
emphasis on short term planning
Scott D Sagan, Political Science Professor at Stanford, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, 2003, p.
171-3
The second disagreement is … rapid escalation or none at all.
Independently, absent escalation, miscalculation results in extinction- Russian nuclear bombers prove the risk is at an
all-time high
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Harper's, High Times, Vanity Fair, New York Times Magazine, and Slate, 8-31-2007
http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/#page_start
"The nuclear doomsday machine." … retaliation to a decapitating strike."
NORTH KOREA ADVANTAGE
Current US nuclear posture causes North Korean nuclear expansion, launch-on-warning, and pre-delegation – causes
nuclear war.
McDonough, consultant at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2006 (David, RUSI Journal, April, ProQuest)
The American deployment …fraught with instability and distrust.
Even if we don’t solve nuclearization, diplomatic progress is key to solve the impacts of regime collapse.
Stares and Wit, senior fellow for Conflict Prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations and adjunct senior research
fellow at the Weatherhead East Asia Institute, Columbia University, 2009 (Paul and Joel, “Preparing for Sudden
Change in North Korea,” January, available for download athttp://www.cfr.org/ publication/18019/preparing_
for_sudden_change_in_north_ korea.html)
Establishing broader …would have similar benefits.
The impact is superpower conflict.

Change in North Korea,” January, available for download athttp://www.cfr.org/ publication/18019/preparing_
for_sudden_change_in_north_ korea.html)
These various scenarios …American intervention in the North.
CHINA LIMITED DETERRENCE ADVANTAGE

China mod inev – us nfu key to china commitment to minimal deterrence posture – impact is us/china accidental
nuclear war
Lewis 9 Jeffery G, Nonproliferation Review July InformaWorld
Both of these views emphasize the role of nuclear weapons…disarming first strike against another nuclear-armed
power
Strait Times
Your Imact D doesn’t apply – changes to nuclear strategy causes us/china conflict – even absent escalation, hostility
crushes global econ and solutions to warming
Pollack 9 Joshua
But the present calm is not guaranteed to last…arms race before it becomes self-fulfilling
Mead 9
So far, such half hearted…may still have to fight
Warming Impact – Tickell
NFU is the central question for china
Saalman 9
Lora, Engaging CHina and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament, April
NFU remains a central and unquestioned tenet…commitment to the basic spirit of arms control
Relations high args aren’t responsive – inev misperceptions doom us china relations in squo
Yuan 9
Despite the overall positive assessments by both leaders…mismanagement of the bilateral relationship
Shift in china posture destroys cred of our deterrent and causes regional arms races
Yuan 00 “China’s strategic force modernization: issues and implications”
A doctrinal shift from minimal deterrence…fragile consensus among the nuclear weapons states
AT: NPR CP
Doesn’t solve npt
Feiveson 3
At the npt renew conference of 1995…nuclear weapon states themselves, especially the United States
NPR doesn’t solve intl perception
Handler 3 Joshua “National Missile Defense, Proliferation, Arms Control, Russia and the United States”
In this regard, Russia’s disarmament…question is not resolves satisfactorily
Npr doesn’t shift operational policy
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Nolan and Holmes 8

Bureaucratic institutions have two intrinsic…purposes of the US nuclear arsenal
Causes inev first use
Feiveson 3
This argument has some merit…to use nuclear weapons in some crisis
that causes prolif
Fitzpatrick 9
Use by one of the established…part of other Muslim-majority countries
At cuts outside npt bad
Usa today 9 lexis
During president obama’s trip to Russia…idea that another would show
Fights inev with military – npr
Guardian 9/23 lexis
Obama has just said some striking things…these are strong words
Guardian 9/23
After Mr Obama’s decision…lowering america’s guard
A2 Taubman – military fights
President obama must make sure…a step Mr. Obama has rejected
Afghanistan makes impact inev
CSM 9/26
The top US military officers…Al Qaeda and fewer troops
Military supports nfu
By cultivating a culture of nonuse…would be rolling in his grave
AT: RRW DISAD

Your link makes zero sense in the context of our aff- plan doesn’t require congressional action
Mendelsohn 06 (issues in science and technology. www.issues.org/22. 3/mendelsohn.html
“to this end, three actions” “we can change our declaratory policy in a day.”
Even if rrw was horsetraded it would still be arms control victory

PONI, 9-11 (http://forums.csis.org/poni/
“the Obama administration could likely” “international nuclear arms reductions”
NATO ADV
Nato doctrine prohibits nfu except in extremely emote situations – exceptions increase chance of first use as NATO
engagement expands
Arjun Makhijani and Nicole Deller
The 1999 strategic concept recognizes the changes in the world…command of the security force in CONTINUED
afghanistan from the United Nations…japan might itself acquire nuclear weapons
US policy spills over to nato doctrine

Same cite
Another significant factor in analyzing…those of NATO is required
w/o changes in nuclear doctrine, first use of nuclear weapons would undermine nato’s role in managing conflicts
graham and mendelsohn 99 “NATO’s nuclear weapons policy and the no first use option”
thirdly, the first use…or even the threat of use of nuclear weapons
NATO’s mediation is essential to stop global super power war

O’Sullivan 98
Some of those ideas—notably, dissolution…main guarantor of European stability
NATO cohesion k2 afghanistan

NYT 8/31 “Groundwork is laid for new troops in Afghanistan”
The situation in Afghanistan…before sending it to the White House
Afghan Instability spills over

Starr 1 “The War against terrorism and US bilateral relations with the nations of central asia”
However, this does not mean…threats to world peace that the US cannot ignore
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No offense – recommendations for NATO fu policy are bad for security

Davis 8
The five retired military commanders…alert and a commitment to no first use
AT: CHINA QPQ CP

Binding qpq tanks us cred
Jamie Caroll 2009 “back to the future: redefining the foreign investment and national security act’s conception of
national security”
See Thomas Friedman, Op-Ed…See also Khalilzad, supra note
Unequivocal pledges key to npt

Kirk C Bansak 8/18/09
Employed in concert, positive and negative…credibility of pledges by the NWS
Don’t solve your il nb

Hoekman 2 Bernard “strengthening the global trade architecture for development”
A corollary of the above argument is that greater care is required…and development institutions in numerous countries
QPQ not key six party talks

Asia pulse 9/29
Top diplomats from south korea and china…back to the stalled six-party talks
China rejects qpq

Hathaway 2 Ntl Bureau of Asia Research Vol 13 No 1
Fourth, the united states must pay more…will find reason to be firm in the face of perceived US pressure
Precedent
Drury 3 “US economic sanction threats against china: failing to leverage better human rights”
Our analysis suggests that the MFN threats…therefore was unwilling to give any ground
Legally binding nfu key to 6 party talks

Pabst 9/25 critics will be correct to argue…abandon their nuclear arsenals
AT: Nuclear Industry DA

bolstering npt good for nuclear industry
Chyba 9 “understanding the US nuclear weapons policy debate”
This area of disagreement…views are willing to accept
No il – subsidies save industry

Mercury 9
A reckless energy proposal to provide…against liabilities and losses
AT: North Korean Exception CP

Nk only agrees to legally binding
Ohmy news 5
Furthermore, since the start of the Bush…accommodating such demands
Mreo ev
Pabst 9/25
Critics will be correct to argue…abandon their nuclear arsenals
Carrots are key

Only large carrots solve
Time 9/19
Since the US started negotiating with North korea…will have gone way, way up
NFU k NoKo
Yonhap 9 lexis
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A private US think tank Thursday..for itself and its allies
NFU solves aggression

Mcdonough 6 (david, proquest)
The American deployment of sophisticated…fraught with instability and distrust
GSU NFU Aff

GSU 1AC (1/6)
Observation 1
The US has an ambiguous nuclear doctrine, without explicit clarification the perception is that the US has an
aggressive nuclear stance
Many conference participants … moral legitimacy of nuclear arms.
The NPR will not be successful without further commitments- Obama’s agenda has been hijacked by Cold War
architectures
Cirincionne, 8/10/09 (Joseph, Total Arms Control Badass, Huffington Post, http://bx.businessweek.com/defense-
industry/view?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2Fjoe-cirincione%2Fthe-pentagons-nuclear-
pos_b_255517.html)
The Pentagon's Nuclear Posture …" and "maintain extended deterrence."
Advantage One is Proliferation
There is another initiative …, bolster non-proliferation efforts.
In March 2002, major US … a weapon of mass destruction.
First, the dynamics of getting to a … dead cities or even whole nations.
We’ll preempt your deterrence arguments- proliferation isn’t re-enforcing
Walt’s rational deterrence theory …compatible with assured protection.
Also- prolif isn’t inevitable – satisfying key security conditions negates the desire for nuclear weapons
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But both deterrence optimism and …security guarantees to Tehran.
Despite nearly universal…., it will increase.

The US, however, is now … retaliation against the US
nuclear war
Rogue state acquisition …for weaker powers.
Miscalculation causes extinction
Despite the end of the …casualties worldwide

Advantage Two is China
In this context a real problem is US readiness… in nuclear weapons limitation negotiations
pp.599-600)
The major proliferation question… cause serious proliferation problems

In addition to the existing nuclear powers in Asia… major interstate warfare

Beijing hedges against these developments… rise as a major global power.

Plan:
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The United States Federal Government should prohibit the use of the United States Federal Government’s nuclear
weapons against an organization or government that has not used nuclear weapons against another an organization
or government.
Universal NFU key to solve – only way to devalue possession of nuclear weaposn.
Johnson, Executive Director of the Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy, 2009 (Rebecca, Disarmament
Diplomacy, Spring, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd90/90sa.htm)
traditional approaches on security assurances… nuclear weapons for everyone
We can solve without verification –implemented NFU pledges create a new multilateral norm.
the process of stigmatising and outlawing… actual deterrence and security in the real world.
NPT Addition to Prolif

First, a declaration of “No First Use” fulfills Article VI disarmament commitments- action before the 2010 Review
conference is key
A no-first-use declaration … help address that concern.
There is a premium on time- without successful progress at the RevCon the NPT will crash and burn
Jean DuPreez Arms Control Today, 2006 “Half Full or Half Empty? Realizing the Promise of the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty”
Although the NPT … reinvigorate the 40-year-old treaty
Your NPT bad args are hype- the aff solves the DAs and the alternative is worse
Daryl G. Kimball, President of Arms Control Association, 2003 http://www.armscontrol.org/print/1422
Even as the nonproliferation … the risk of nuclear war.
Iran Addition to Prolif

NFU pledge key to solve Iranian prolif – increases international support for coercive diplomacy and reduces power of
Iranian hawks.
A US no-first-use declaration …claim it faces nuclear threats.
None of your Iran evidence from before this Summer matters- the election has drastically changed the politics inside
Iran- US NFU key to a long term strategy
Henri Barkey, visiting scholar in the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor
at Lehigh University 8-13-2009 “Why America Should Play the Long Game in Iran”
Iran’s post-election … of the fraudulent elections.
Perception is key – other countries think Iran is going nuclear.

Eisenstadt, senior fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute for Near
East Policy, 05
(Michael, “Getting Ready for a Nuclear Ready Iran”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub629.pdf)
Tehran’s ability to derive … in containing a nuclear Iran.
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Iranian nuclearization will cause global proliferation and nuclear war – none of the normal deterrence arguments apply.
Wimbush, 2007 (S. Enders,- senior fellow at Hudson Institute and director of its Center for Future Security Strategies,
“The End of Deterrence: A nuclear Iran will change everything”, January 11th,
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/154auoqp.asp?pg=1)
Iran is fast building its … once broken, cannot be restored.
You can’t win offense - Iran lacks the necessary prerequisites for prolif to be stabilizing.
Kibaroglu, teaches courses on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, arms control, and disarmament in the
Department of International Relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, 06
(Mustafa, “Good for the Shah, Banned for the Mullahs: the West and Iran’s Quest for Nuclear Power,” Middle East
Journal, Spring, Expanded Academic ASAP Online)
Notwithstanding these possible … of catastrophe is very high indeed.

Iranian proliferation ensures Israeli strike with or without the US- window of opportunity is closing
James A. Russell is managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for
Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School, Spring 2009
http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
As suggested by Schelling, asymmetries …d Hezbollah underground bunkers.57
Israeli strikes on Iran results in TEN independent scenarios for nuclear escalation to Armageddon
James A. Russell is managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for
Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School, Spring 2009
http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
China Space Weapons 1AC

Failure to issue an NFU causes Chinese pursuit of space weapons.
Zhang, research associate in the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of
Governmen, 2005 (Hui, Arms Control Today, December, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_12/DEC-CVR)
Chinese officials have expressed … China over Taiwan.
Space arms race causes Chinese first strikes.

Twomey, Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, 2007 (Christopher, Asian
Survey, July/August, p.556)
Early signs of strategic …unstable crisis dynamics.48
Destruction of US satellites destroys US hegemony.

Easton, Research Affiliate at the Project 2049 Institute, 2009 (Ian, former researcher for the Asia Bureau of Defense
News as well as translator services for FAPS (the Foundation on Asia Pacific Peace Studies), June 24,
http://project2049.net/documents/china_asat_weapons_the_great_game_in_space.pdf)
GPS Satellites. Twenty-four (plus spares) …will go to the adversary.”35
Leadership is essential to prevent global nuclear exchange

Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1995
US satellites key to the global economy.

Easton, Research Affiliate at the Project 2049 Institute, 2009 (Ian, former researcher for the Asia Bureau of Defense
News as well as translator services for FAPS (the Foundation on Asia Pacific Peace Studies), June 24,
http://project2049.net/documents/china_asat_weapons_the_great_game_in_space.pdf)
Many specialists also argue …vulnerabilities to Chinese attack.37
Economic decline causes global great power war.

Mead 09 (Walter Russell, Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, New Republic,
February 4, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)
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CBWs Add-On
US threat of nuclear first strike in response to chemical and biological weapons simultaneously increases the risk that
these weapons are accidentally launched and that the US is forces to respond with nuclear weapons
The fifth and final type of …U.S. nuclear attack has occurred.
Explicit change in US doctrine is vital even under the Obama administration- ambiguity allows government officials to
make statements of nuclear threats
A central reason why Clinton administration … ambiguity and commitment.
US nuclear retaliation would cause extinction

The American Prospect, 2/26/01
The bitter disputes over national … war by checklist, by rote."
North Korea Add-On

Current US nuclear posture causes North Korean nuclear expansion, launch-on-warning, and pre-delegation – causes
nuclear war.
McDonough, consultant at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2006 (David, RUSI Journal, April, ProQuest)
The American deployment …fraught with instability and distrust.
Even if we don’t solve nuclearization, diplomatic progress is key to solve the impacts of regime collapse.
Change in North Korea,” January, available for download at
http://www.cfr.org/publication/18019/preparing_for_sudden_change_in_north_korea.html)
Establishing broader …would have similar benefits.
The impact is superpower conflict.

Change in North Korea,” January, available for download at
http://www.cfr.org/publication/18019/preparing_for_sudden_change_in_north_korea.html)
These various scenarios …American intervention in the North.
NFU key to solve North Korean nuclearization.

Yonhap 2009 (May 1, Lexis Academic)
A private U.S. think … for itself and its allies."
GSU Plan Texts

Prelim Plan Texts
The United States Federal Government should prohibit the use of the United States Federal Government's explosive
devices designed to release the energy that accompanies the splitting or combining of atomic nuclei for destructive
purposes against an organization or government that has not used an explosive device designed to release the energy
that accompanies the splitting or combining of atomic nuclei for destructive purposes against another organization or
government
Octos Plan Text

The United States Federal Government should forbid the use of the United States Federal Government?s instruments
that match the description provided in Article Five of the Treaty of Tlatelolco against a governmental entity, proxy, or
group that has not used an instrument matching the description provided in Article Five of the Treaty of Tlatelolco
against another governmental entity or group.
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Harvard Round 7
Aff vs NU FS
New AT: NPR CP

NPR doesn’t solve international perception
Yost 2004, ‘the us nuclear posture review and the nato allies’
The successful pursuit of these constructive initiatives … terrorism and wmd proliferation
Congress blocks
Cirincione 8-16
Well, the way that you could do it successfully … the President wanted it to.
Russia NFU Adv

Russia is in the process of setting its military doctrine for the next 20 years. The draft submitted to Medvedev by the
end of the year reverses the no first use
RIA Novasti, 10-9-2009 http://www.defpro.com/news/details/10400/
Russia's new military … by the end of 2009.
Two Scenarios for Conflict

First, Eastern Europe
The change in nuclear doctrine makes Russian expansionism and nuclear conflict in Georgia and Ukraine inevitable-
the last war in Georgia proves
Eistein Guldseth, Adviser in Strategic Communication. Post graduate in "Media, Communication and ICT" 10-14-2009
http://writern.blogspot.com/2009/10/russia-might-open-for-first-strike.html
The Russian newspaper … terrorist attacs in several regions.
Russian first strike causes extinction

Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal, Specialist on State Terrorism Delhi based Research Scholar in International Studies 10-21-
2009 http://www.kashmirwatch.com/showarticles.php?
subaction=showfull&id=1256150102&archive=&start_from=&ucat=3&var0news=value0news
Since the collapse of … turns the clock backward.
Even without a first strike, Russian expansionism in the Soviet Bloc is the most likely scenario for extinction. 8 warrants
Blank 1999 (Steven. Prof of Research @ Strategic Studies Institute of US Army War College. Oil and Geopolitics in the
Caspian Region.1999 Page 31-32)
The regional structure … of settling the situation.
Second, China
Russia-China border incursions are inevitable- tech advances in China and demographic imbalance
Derek J. Mitchell, senior fellow and director for Asia in the CSIS International Security Program (ISP), 2007 “China and
Russia” online
The stark cross-border … West than with each other.
Russian first use means that these skirmishes will go nuclear- won’t risk conventional defeat
Bruce Clarke Defense Dept. Examiner 10-15-2009 http://www.examiner.com/x-17537-Defense-Dept-
Examiner~y2009m10d15-Supposed-change-in-Russian-nuclear-doctrine
Recent news headlines … any border incursion risks all.

Alexander Sharavin, 10-3-2001, Defense and Security
Chinese propaganda has … the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.
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US NFU would pressure Russia to adopt a similar policy- satisfies security concerns that won’t be addressed with
START
MODERATOR: JAMES ACTON, ASSOCIATE, NONPROLIFERATION PROGRAM, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT
SPEAKERS: MICHAEL S. GERSON, RESEARCH ANALYST, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES JEFFREY G. and
LEWIS, DIRECTOR, NUCLEAR STRATEGY AND NONPROLIFERATION INITIATIVE, NEW AMERICA
FOUNDATION 9-29-2009 “RETHINKING U.S. NUCLEAR POSTURE” online
Q: Greg Thielmann, Arms Control … to the follow- on looks like.
Even if they win that theoretical risk of these conflicts is low- the magnitude means they should be preferred- season
changes also increase the risk of nuclear use
Stratfor, 2000 http://www.bu.edu/globalbeat/nuclear/GIU011700.html
Until a few months ago, … massive domestic payoff for Putin.
Nuclear deterrence fails to deal with Russian threats – risks crisis instability and nuclear war – decreasing reliance on
nuclear weapons is key.
Perkovich, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009 (George, “EXTENDED
DETERRENCE ON THE WAY TO A NUCLEAR-FREE WORLD,” May,
http://www.icnnd.org/research/Perkovich_Deterrence.pdf)
This tension is the … deterrence should be avoided.
Chechnya Module
International aid in Chechnya is vital to building up infrastructure and long-term growth. This is the only way to limit the
spread of terrorism
Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Anatol Lieven, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace and Thomas de Waal Caucasus editor at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting 2005 “A
Spreading Danger: Time for a New Policy Toward Chechnya”
This approach should … and other areas of concern.
This crisis threatens to spillover and cause terrorism and instability

Bart Staes, MEP, Member of the Delegation to the EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, 2005
http://www.ceps.eu/content/new-western-strategy-towards-chechnya
Lieven prefaced his … dimension requiring international attention.
This is especially true now- killings are increasing and threaten to destabilize the entire region
Alan Cullison, Moscow correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and a Nieman fellow at Harvard University 8-12-
2009 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124998987038222463.html
The head of a … and, more recently, humanitarian workers.
That draws in great powers- causing extinction

Tsepkalo ‘98 (Valery V., Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, The Remaking of Eurasia,
March/April, lexis)
But abetting the continuing … less predictable and more dangerous place.
Terrorism causes the U.S. to lash out, precipitating global war

Nicole Schwartz-Morgan, Assistant Professor of Politics and Economics at Royal Military College of Canada,
10/10/2001, “Wild Globalization and Terrorism,” http://www.wfs.org/mmmorgan.htm
The terrorist act can … themselves merchants or terrorists.
Force Structure Module

Russia first use doctrine decks US-Russian relations and mandates changes in force structure. These force structure
changes mean dramatic increases in forward deployed TNWs
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Andrei Kislyakov is a political correspondent for RIA Novosti, 2008

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/A_New_Nuclear_Weapons_Doctrine_2008_Part_Two_999.html
If the Kremlin's new military … the ground, in the air and at sea.
Relations prevent a laundry list of impacts

Nixon Center 2k3 (“Advancing American Interests and the U.S.-Russian Relationship: INTERIM REPORT,”
SEPTEMBER 2K3 HTTP:WWW.NIXONCENTER.ORG/PUBLICATIONS/MONOGRAPHS/FR.HTM) WLT
The proper starting point in … source of political support.
US Russian Coopt Adv

US-Russia nuclear cooperation is handicapped by the threat of “first strike.” NFU pledge would shore up cooperation
on WMD and nuclear issues
Jan Lodal has served as principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy and as deputy for program analysis at
the National Security Council, 2001 http://legacy.armscontrol.org/act/2001_03/lodal
The strategic arms … terrorists and rogue states.
Nuclear cooperation is specifically needed to ensure nuclear safety

ACGNC, American Council on Global Nuclear Competitiveness, December 2006,
http://www.nuclearcompetitiveness.org/images/Council_123_White_Paper-Final.doc.
Based on this … Russian commercial nuclear industry.
Unsafe nuclear material in Russia will result in global nuclear war

Patrick Spiece (Associate @ Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, Washington, D.C.) WILLIAM & MARY LAW REVIEW, Feb
2006, LexisNexis)
The potential consequences … to the use of nuclear weapons. (53)
Reactor meltdowns obliterate the planet

Wasserman ’02 (Harvey, Senior Editor – Free Press, Earth Island Journal, Spring,
www.earthisland.org/eijournal/new_articles.cfm?articleID=457&journalID=63)
The intense radioactive heat within today's … future generations must be shut down.
Russia Plan
weapons against the Russian Federation unless the Russian Federation has used a nuclear weapon against another
nation or national agency.
Newest Miscalc Adv

Without a US NFU pledge, there are the conditions for the most likely breakout of WWIII- “first use” magnifies the risks
of accidents with Russia
Nicholas Thompson, senior editor of Wired Magazine, 5-11-2009 http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/will-
obama-give-up-americas-nuke-first-strike/
President Obama … to the deterrence of attack by biological weapons.”
None of your impact defense makes sense in the context of actual nuclear exchange- very short lead times and
heightened threats change the calculus of decision makers
According to a recent paper … reach coastal targets in less than 15 minutes.
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There is a presumption in favor of use- military planners lower the threshold for introduction of nuclear weapons-
emphasis on short term planning
Scott D Sagan, Political Science Professor at Stanford, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, 2003, p.
171-3
The second disagreement is … call for rapid escalation or none at all.
Independently, absent escalation, miscalculation results in extinction- Russian nuclear bombers prove the risk is at an
all-time high
"The nuclear doomsday machine." … semi-automatic retaliation to a decapitating strike."
Miscalc is the most likely spark for nuclear use between US and Russia
Blair's primary recent … foremost experts on Russian arms.)
US-Russia nuclear conflict results in extinction- best scientific studies prove

Starr 9. [Steven, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and Moscow Inst. Of Physics, “Catastrophic Climatic Consequences of
Nuclear Conflict,” Int’l Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation,http://inesap.org/node/11]
Using the vastly more modern … over centuries or millennia.
Even if the accident risk is low, it should come first in your risk calculus.
program, He wrote for the The Village Voice for several years, leaving in 1975 after which he wrote for Esquire,
And one of the few mainstream …. It's time to avert "inadvertence."
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Michigan State Klante/Miller (NFU) [DCH]
Michigan State LM
GSU Aff Disclosure

GSU 1AC (1/6)
Observation 1
The US has an ambiguous nuclear doctrine, without explicit clarification the perception is that the US has an
aggressive nuclear stance
Many conference participants … moral legitimacy of nuclear arms.
The NPR will not be successful without further commitments- Obama’s agenda has been hijacked by Cold War
architectures
Cirincionne, 8/10/09 (Joseph, Total Arms Control Badass, Huffington Post, http://bx.businessweek.com/defense-
industry/view?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2Fjoe-cirincione%2Fthe-pentagons-nuclear-
pos_b_255517.html)
The Pentagon's Nuclear Posture …" and "maintain extended deterrence."
Advantage One is Proliferation
There is another initiative …, bolster non-proliferation efforts.
In March 2002, major US … a weapon of mass destruction.
First, the dynamics of getting to a … dead cities or even whole nations.
We’ll preempt your deterrence arguments- proliferation isn’t re-enforcing
Walt’s rational deterrence theory …compatible with assured protection.
Also- prolif isn’t inevitable – satisfying key security conditions negates the desire for nuclear weapons
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But both deterrence optimism and …security guarantees to Tehran.
Despite nearly universal…., it will increase.

The US, however, is now … retaliation against the US
nuclear war
Rogue state acquisition …for weaker powers.
Miscalculation causes extinction
Despite the end of the …casualties worldwide

Advantage Two is China
In this context a real problem is US readiness… in nuclear weapons limitation negotiations
pp.599-600)
The major proliferation question… cause serious proliferation problems

In addition to the existing nuclear powers in Asia… major interstate warfare

Beijing hedges against these developments… rise as a major global power.

Plan:
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weapons against an organization or government that has not used nuclear weapons against another an organization
or government.
Universal NFU key to solve – only way to devalue possession of nuclear weaposn.
traditional approaches on security assurances… nuclear weapons for everyone
We can solve without verification –implemented NFU pledges create a new multilateral norm.
the process of stigmatising and outlawing… actual deterrence and security in the real world.
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Michigan Cronin/Gupta (NFU-NSA) [DCH]
GSU Aff Disclosure

United States should declare not to use nuclear weapons first against countries in good standing under the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty.
Advantage One---Prolif:
Assurance replaces deterrence in the current security environment. Unqualified NFU critical
John Steinbruner, director of the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) and chairman of
the board of directors of the Arms Control Association, "Carter's 1978 Declaration and the Significance of Security
Assurances" Arms Control Today, October 2k8
The relentless underlying reality is that the process of globalization
the degree of military superiority it will retain for quite some time.
Obama has a unique chance to reverse dynamics that place high political value on nukes
Jonathan Granoff, President Global Security Institute; The Imperative of Preserving and Strengthening the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty; 2009 http://www.gsinstitute.org/gsi/pubs/03_26_09_NPT.pdf
The NPR was reinforced in December 2002 by a presidentially approved
now be recognized fully and countered.
US Leadership revives the NPT
William Walker, School of International Relations, University of St Andrews; Nuclear enlightenment and counter-
enlightenment; International Affairs 83: 3 (2007) 427–430
In conclusion, nuclear history has been shaped from
exercises of military might, they are surely deluding themselves.
Helps at the 2010 Prep Com
Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation; Survival, vol. 51 no. 3, June–July 2009, pp. 163–182
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A no-first-use declaration would also
declaration would help address that concern.
The alternative to US NPT leadership is degraded politics---prolif causes conflict
William Walker, School of International Relations, University of St Andrews; Nuclear enlightenment and counter-
enlightenment; International Affairs 83: 3 (2007) 427–430
Nuclear weapons were an unintended consequence
violence and a perpetual vulnerability to catastrophe.
Unambiguous NFU spurs others on
Harold A Feiveson, senior research scientists, co-director of the Program on Science and Global Security at Woodrow
Wilson School at Princeton, and Ernst Jan Hogendoorn, Ph.D. student at the Woodrow Wilson School, “no first use of
nuclear weapons” The Nonproliferation Review, 2k3
Countries advocating a legally binding no-first-use commitment emphasize that
to no first use of nuclear weapons.
Prolif causes nuke war
Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism; Avoiding a Nuclear
Crowd; June/July 2009 http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html#n14
Combine these proliferation trends with the others
abolition, nor their critics, would ever want.
Deterrence ensures conventionalization
Andrew Lichterman, Western States Legal Foundation, “Deterrence Revisited: U.S. Nuclear Weapons and Power
Politics”, March 2007, http://storage.paxchristi.net/07-0182.pdf
General Butler described deterrence as “a slippery
employment, and escalatory courses of action.”17
Commitment traps inevitable
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Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit partnership of scientists and citizens combining rigorous scientific analysis,
innovative policy development, and effective citizen advocacy to achieve practical environmental solutions, “Toward
True Security: Ten Steps the Next President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy,” 2k8,
http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_08021201A.pdf
Threatening to use nuclear weapons in
and, if necessary, respond to nuclear attacks.
Calculated ambiguity lowers the threshold for nukes while providing no comfort
2002 Nuclear Time Warp, http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/time-warp-pr.cfm
President George W. Bush's new Nuclear Posture Review harks back to the
of nukes falling into the wrong hands.
Advantage Two---Chinese Modernization:
NFU creates mutual strategic trust for relations to contain modernization---Chinese officials themselves prove
Jeffrey G. Lewis is Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation;
Ph.D. in policy studies (international security and economic policy) from the University of Maryland; Nonproliferation
Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009
The United States and China have begun a
the possibility of accidents, miscalculations, or misunderstandings.
NFU is what China wants---brings them to the nuclear bargaining table
Stephen Herzog, British American Security Information Council; The Dilemma between Deterrence and Disarmament:
Moving beyond the Perception of China as a Nuclear Threat; BASIC PAPERS OCCASIONAL PAPERS ON
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY August 2008. Number 57; http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Papers/BP57.pdf
In the past, Chinese leaders have sought
weapons bargaining table.
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Mutual strategic trust solves miscalculation conflict over Taiwan---US nuclear policy change is the only way to solve
Chinese mistrust. Stopping modernization is the only way to stop American mistrust.
Martin 9 (Dan, staffwriter, Agence France Presse, China warns US on Taiwan as military talks resume, February 27,
2009, Lexis)
China told the United States Friday US arms sales to Taiwan remained a
its power more boldly in the region.
Extinction
Straits Times (Singapore) June 25, 2k
THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a
be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.
Relations aren’t enough. Redefining the relationship around mutual strategic trust solves Asian conflict---deterioration
causes it
Freeman 8 (Chas W, Ambassador, US Foreign Service (retired), president of the Middle East Policy Council; Strategic
Studies Quarterly ? Fall 2008; http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2008/Fall/freeman.pdf)
Finally, to return very briefly to military matters, it is
they want a strategic partnership with America.
Asian miscalc conflict most likely
Landay 2k (Jonathan S. Landay, Writer for Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service,"Top Administration Officials Warn
Stakes for US are high in Asian Conflicts" – Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 3/10/2000, lexis)
WASHINGTON _ The 3,700-mile arc that begins at the heavily
already shaky international nonproliferation regime
Korea—extinction
Africa News 99
“If there is one place today where
technically still at war.”
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Indo-Pak—extinction
Helen Caldicott, MD, 1/20/09 “Obama has the Opportunity to eliminate Nuclear Weapons”, CMAJ
India has about 65 nuclear weapons and Pakistan

global hunger and preventable diseases.
Unequivocal statement key
Andrew Butfoy 2002 (PHD Senior Lecturer specialising in international security issues; Monash University, Australia;
Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.23, No.2 (August 2002), pp. 149-168)
During the 1990s Washington's apparent
and national missile defences.
And, slow Chinese modernization will speed up without a guarantee
Jing-dong Yuan, PHD; Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Senior consultant to the CNS Education
Program; Associate Professor of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies;
graduate of the Xi'an Foreign Language University, People's Republic of China; Ph.D. in political science from Queen's
University in 1995 and has had research and teaching appointments at Queen's University, York University; University
of Toronto; University of British Columbia, recipient of the Iaazk Killam Postdoctoral Research Fellowship;
EFFECTIVE, RELIABLE, AND CREDIBLE: China’s Nuclear Modernization; The Nonproliferation Review, 2k7 14:2,
275 - 301
Yet, despite the changing security environment
hence it is counter-coercion or counter-deterrence.73
Modernization makes miscalc nuclear war likely---multiple reasons:
--Dual-class missiles, doctrine, and counterforce
Dr. Stephen J. Cimbala is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the Pennsylvania State University-
Brandywine; Joint Force Quarterly October 1, 2008
A further concern for U.S. military observers is
warning, command and control, and missile defense. (9)
--Causes PLA adventurism
Michael S. Chase et al, Andrew Erickson, and Christopher Yeaw 2009 (PHD, Assistant Professor in the Strategy and
Policy Department at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island; PHD, Assistant Professor. China Maritime
Studies Institute (CMSI), Naval War College; Associate Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department
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at the U.S. Naval War College; Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the
United States; Journal of Strategic Studies,32:1,67 — 114)
At the same time, however, there are reasons to
drag China into a military misadventure with the US.’144
--US reacts
Jeffrey G. Lewis, PHD; Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation;
Today, however, China is
DF-21 and DF-21As?
--Especially because tanks extended deterrence and causes Chinese NFU change
275 - 301
It is clear from the above discussions that current Chinese
United States that China is striving for regional hegemony.
Miscalc war is more likely than deliberate---empirics---spirals nuclear
The Daily Standard May 21, 2009
Indeed, U.S. military planners
it seems everyone miscalculated in August 1914.
And, modernization causes East Asian arms racing
M. Taylor Fravel, Assistant professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; The
Washington Quarterly 2008, 31:3 pp. 125–141
When viewed through the lens of the security dilemma,
about China’s long-term intentions.
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Any conflict goes global
Ogura and Oh 97 (Toshimaru and Ingyu, Monthly Review, “Nuclear clouds over the Korean peninsula and Japan”,
Volume 48, Issue 11, April, Proquest)
North Korea, South Korea, and Japan have
to escalate into a global conflagration.
Now key to prevent further modernization or force posture shift
275 - 301
Chinese nuclear modernization is at a
as a major global power.
China even vaguely modifying its NFU causes regional instability, proliferation, and US-China nuclear war
Pan Zhenqiang, Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, National Defence University
of the People’s Liberation Army of China, Beijing, where he earlier served as Director of the Institute. Mr Zhenqiang is
a retired Major General of the People’s Liberation Army; China Security; Autumn 2005 Issue No 1
http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/sr/2005/0574Hagt_Yali.pdf
First, NFU highlights China’s philosophical belief that
in a nuclear war.
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Michigan Deming/Sekaran (NFU-NSA) [DCH]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Observation: Inherency
Current US declaratory policy is calculated ambiguity
Robert L. Civiak 2009 (Ph.D. in physics from the University of Pittsburgh; former Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) Examiner for the Department of Energy’s u8 Nuclear Weapons Programs, and is now an independent
consultant; Nuclear Weapons Complex Consolidation (NWCC) Policy Network; Transforming the U.S. Strategic
Posture and Weapons Complex for Transition to a Nuclear Weapons-Free World;
http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_09040701a.pdf)
Offering a public ….
…capability for its own defense.
The plan:
The Executive Branch of the United States federal government should declare that the April 1995 Presidential
declaration on non-use of nuclear weapons is policy including all words except "non-nuclear weapon states that are".
For clarification - not part of the plan:
Federation of American Scientists - April 6, 2005 (http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/docs/940405-nsa.htm)
CLINTON ISSUES PLEDGE TO NPT NON-NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES (NPT Texts: Declaration, Christopher
statement on it) (1850) Washington -- President Clinton, in a declaration issued April 5, reaffirms that the United States
"will not use nuclear weapons against (non-nuclear weapon states") that are parties to the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT).
Advantage: Chinese Modernization
China is beginning to modernize in the face of a changing security environment -the depth of changes and decisions
about changes in posture will be driven by US decisions
Jing-dong Yuan 2007(PHD; Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Senior consultant to the CNS
Education Program; Associate Professor of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies; graduate of the Xi'an Foreign Language University, People's Republic of China (1982); Ph.D. in political
science from Queen's University in 1995 and has had research and teaching appointments at Queen's University, York
University; University of Toronto; University of British Columbia, recipient of the Iaazk Killam Postdoctoral Research
Fellowship; EFFECTIVE, RELIABLE, AND CREDIBLE: China’s Nuclear Modernization; The Nonproliferation
Review,14:2,275 — 301)
Chinese nuclear modernization is at a critical juncture…..
…..China’s continued rise as a major global power.

US first-use posture is a key driver of Chinese modernization
Alexei Arbatov 2008 (Alexei G. Arbatov is the Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee of the State Duma in
the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. He is responsible for Russia's defense budget, arms control treaties,
and defense industries. Dr. Arbatov was first elected to the Russian State Duma in 1993 as a member of the
Democratic Party of Grigory Yavlinsky (Yabloko Party). He is a 1973 graduate of the Moscow State Institute for
International Relations and has done postgraduate work at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations
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(IMEMO) of the Academy of Sciences of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; NON-FIRST USE AS A WAY OF
OUTLAWING NUCLEAR WEAPONS; International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament;
http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf)
In this context …
…may join in nuclear weapons limitation negotiations.
We will isolate three impacts

First, Accidents, modernization makes US-China escalation to nuclear conflict by miscalculation or accident much
more likely – multiple scenarios
Jeffrey G. Lewis 7/2009 (PHD; Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America
Foundation; Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009)
In the United States, we tend to think about
externally, are identical to China’s nuclear-armed DF-21 and DF-21As?
Multiple reasons miscalculation is a real risk between the US and China
Cimbala, Stephen J. 2008 (Dr. Stephen J. Cimbala is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the Pennsylvania
State University-Brandywine; Joint Force Quarterly October 1, 2008)
A further concern for….
…warning, command and control, and missile defense. (9)
Strategic Submarine Based Missiles in nuclear submarines make such a crisis MUCH more dangerous – high risk of
nuclear escalation
Michael S. Chase, Andrew Erickson, and Christopher Yeaw 2009 (PHD, Assistant Professor in the Strategy and Policy
Department at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island; PHD, Assistant Professor. China Maritime Studies
Institute (CMSI), Naval War College; Associate Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department at the
U.S. Naval War College; Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the United
States; Journal of Strategic Studies,32:1,67 — 114)
An additional aspect of China’s …
…beyond mere conventional or even theater warfare.
The Transition to secure second-strike capabilities underway in China would cause escalation even without a crisis
At the same time, however, …
…a military misadventure with the US.’
And, that makes questioning US extended deterrence inevitable risking miscalculation and escalation- modernization
will increase pressure on China to abandon NFU
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Jing-dong Yuan 2007 (PHD; Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Senior consultant to the CNS
Review,14:2,275 — 301)
It is clear from the above discussions that current…
…United States that China is striving for regional hegemony.
Second, If China moves or even modifies it’s No First Use Doctrine the end result would the end of Sino-US relations,
conservative overreaction and total destruction arms control, proliferation, arms racing, nuclear war over Taiwan, and
accidental wars - turns all DA impacts
Pan Zhenqiang 2005 (Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, National Defence
University of the People’s Liberation Army of China, Beijing, where he earlier served as Director of the Institute. Mr
Zhenqiang is a retired Major General of the People’s Liberation Army; China Security; Autumn 2005 Issue No 1
http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/sr/2005/0574Hagt_Yali.pdf)
First, NFU highlights China’s…
…There is no winner in a nuclear war.
Third, Arms racing

Modernization causes spirals of insecurity and maritime arms-racing behavior throughout Asia
M. Taylor Fravel 2008 (Assistant professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; The
Washington Quarterly • 31:3 pp. 125–141)
When viewed through the lens of the security dilemma…
…raising, not reducing, suspicions about China’s long-term intentions.
Kills the US and Chinese economy
COMMANDER ANDREW ARNOLD 2008 (United States Navy; U.S. Army War College; STRATEGIC
CONSEQUENCES OF CHINA’S EXPANDING MARITIME POWER)
Two issues that…
…backbone for their economic survival.
Failure would kill the global economy
South China Morning Post January 25, 2009
The Sino-US trade regime that…
…and the health of the global economy
Nuclear War
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Walter Russell Mead, Senior Fellow in American Foreign policy @ the Council on Foreign Relations, World Policy
Institute, 1992
What if the Global Economy…
…than Germany and Japan did in the ‘30s.
The plan is a pre-condition and the only means of solving nuclear talks over modernization
Stephen Herzog 2008 (British American Security Information Council; The Dilemma between Deterrence and
Disarmament:
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY August 2008. Number 57; http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Papers/BP57.pdf)
In the past, Chinese leaders …
…nuclear weapons bargaining table.
Only the topic creates leverage with the Chinese over the issues that most concern them
Stephen Herzog 2008 (British American Security Information Council; The Dilemma between Deterrence and
Disarmament:
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY August 2008. Number 57; http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Papers/BP57.pdf)
Statements by Chinese leaders…
…the credibility of China’s strategic nuclear deterrent.
US Pledge would be credible
Hence, its potential NFU pledge to China would have…
…so its pledge towards the USA would be strategically credible.
Its reversible, all of your turns become inevitable in a world of Chinese insecurity
Review,14:2,275 — 301)
Yet, despite the changing security environment …
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…and hence it is counter-coercion or counter-deterrence
A pledge of No First Use by the United States is the critical element in creating the “mutual strategic trust” necessary
for relations to contain modernization, miscalculation, and accidents that could lead to war
Jeffrey G. Lewis 7/2009 (Jeffrey G. Lewis is Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New
America Foundation; Ph.D. in policy studies (international security and economic policy) from the University of
Maryland; Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009)
The United States and China have begun a formal dialogue…
…reduce the possibility of accidents, miscalculations, or misunderstandings.

U.S.-Sino relations are critical to solve several scenarios for extinction
Sidney Rittenberg 2008 (former Frey Distinguished Professor of Chinese History at the University of North Carolina
(Chapel Hill), where an endowed chair has been announced in his name. He currently is Visiting Professor of China
Studies at Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, Washington, Quoted in the China Daily, (Rikki N. Massand and
Gazelle Emami, “U.S.-China relations at the world's fingertips,” 4-20-2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-
04/20/content_6629700.htm, JMP)
To frame the importance of this discussion and the topics that must be met…
…axis that holds the whole thing together is the U.S. and China," Rittenberg said.
Deeper strategic coordination is the ONLY way to get to strategic stability in the transition to China’s secure second-
strike capabilities
As China continues to modernize its nuclear and missile forces…
.... to help safeguard shared interests in strategic and crisis stability.
Advantage: Deterrence
First use isn’t a credible threat and leads to commitment traps that are likely to cause escalation in real emergencies -
Deterrence did not solve Iraq’s chemical weapons
Toward True Security:Ten Steps the Next President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy 2008
(Federation of American Scientists; http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_08021201A.pdf)
Advocates of an explicit U.S. nuclear threat often claim…
…nuclear weapons is to deter and, if necessary, respond to nuclear attacks.
The alternative to the plan is to believe in the primacy of nuclear deterrence – this hubris results in nuclear conflicts
with major powers - even the best deterrence can lead to escalation in crisis
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Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press 2006 (Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame;
Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania; The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension
of U.S. Primacy; International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4 (Spring 2006), pp. 7–44)
Third, if Russia and China do not adequately reduce the vulnerability of their nuclear forces
nuclear weapons were the preferred means of defending U.S. vital interests abroad.
US policy is modeled– Obama must act to return to negative security assurances – key to preventing other countries
from using weapons in crisis and restoring US credibility on non-proliferation leadership
Jonathan Granoff 2009 (President Global Security Institute; The Imperative of Preserving and Strengthening the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty; http://www.gsinstitute.org/gsi/pubs/03_26_09_NPT.pdf)
The NPR was reinforced in December 2002 by a presidentially…
…dynamic that we set in motion in 2002 must now be recognized fully and countered.
Proliferation causes much more likely nuclear war
Henry Sokolski, June/July 2009 (executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S.
congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism; Avoiding a
Nuclear Crowd; http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html#n14)
Combine these proliferation trends with the others noted…
…proponents of nuclear abolition, nor their critics, would ever want.
The plan can reverse the decline of the NPT and the alternative to the NPT is nuclear anarchy – deterrence failure and
nuclear power blocs
WILLIAM WALKER 2007 (School of International Relations, University of St Andrews; Nuclear enlightenment and
counter-enlightenment; International Affairs 83: 3 (2007) 427–430)
In conclusion, nuclear history has been shaped
A no-first-use declaration would help address that concern.
And we remove arguments that justify new programs – increasing our credibility for creating coalitions for counter-
proliferation
Scott D. Sagan 6/2009 (Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation; Survival, vol. 51 no. 3, June–July 2009, pp. 163–182)
A US no-first-use declaration would also enhance US non-proliferation…
…as would the ability of Tehran to claim it faces nuclear threats.
First use will not deter terrorists– it will increase their support– international cooperation is the solution
The threat of nuclear first use against terrorists…
…and lethal nonnuclear munitions.
And the risk of WMD terrorism is tiny and decreasing
John Mueller 2009 (PHD; Department of Political Science, Ohio State University; International Commission on Nuclear
Non-proliferation and Disarmament; 5/30; http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Mueller_Terrorism.pdf)
The odds considered so far are for a single attempt by a single…
…In addition, the science of nuclear forensics will advance.
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Also true of CBW’s
The concept of a nuclear response to a CW or BTW…
…still harder to foresee a nuclear response to such an attack.
And true of Extended Deterrence – the links has no empirical basis and all available evidence points the other way
Douglas B. Shaw 2009 (Associate Dean for Planning, Research, and External Relations at the George Washington
University’s Elliott School of International Affairs with a concurrent appointment as an Assistant Professor of
International Affairs. Doug previously served on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Material Security Task
Force, at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency; http://nukesonablog.blogspot.com/2009/03/nuclear-allies-
should-talk-more.html)
A recurring argument on the American side…
…the commitments of U.S. allies to nuclear nonproliferation.
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Michigan Liu/Zagorin (NFU/Critical) [DCH]
Michigan ZL
GSU Aff Disclosure

President Barack Obama should declare that the United States will not use nuclear weapons first against any ally, non-
nuclear state, party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty or in the event of an attack by a non-state actor.
Advantage One is The T in China
China is beginning to modernize in the face of a changing security environment the depth of changes and decisions
about changes in posture will be driven by US decisions
Review,14:2,275 — 301)
Chinese nuclear modernization...global power.
US first-use posture is a key driver of Chinese modernization

In this context...limitation negotiations.
We will isolate two impacts
First, Accidents, modernization makes US-China escalation to nuclear conflict by miscalculation or accident much
more likely – multiple scenarios
Jeffrey G. Lewis 7/2009 (PHD; Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America
Foundation; Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009)
In the United States,... and DF-21As?
Multiple reasons miscalculation is a real risk between the US and China
A further concern... missile defense. (9)
Strategic Submarine Based Missiles in nuclear submarines make such a crisis MUCH more dangerous – high risk of
nuclear escalation
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An additional aspect...theater warfare.
The Transition to secure second-strike capabilities underway in China would cause escalation even without a crisis
At the same time, however,...with the US.’144
And, that makes questioning US extended deterrence inevitable also risking miscalculation and escalation
Jing-dong Yuan 2007 (PHD; Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Senior consultant to the CNS
Review,14:2,275 — 301)
It is clear from the above discussions...regional hegemony.
Second, repeal of Chinese No First Use, If China moves or even modifies it’s No First Use Doctrine the end result
would be multiple nuclear wars – the end of Sino-US relations and all cooperation conservative overreaction and total
destruction of leadership and arms control, would result in horizontal and vertical proliferation, arms racing, war over
Taiwan, and accidental wars - it’s the worst of all worlds and turns all the DA impacts
Pan Zhenqiang 2005 (Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, National Defence
University of the People’s Liberation Army of China, Beijing, where he earlier served as Director of the Institute. Mr
Zhenqiang is a retired Major General of the People’s Liberation Army; China Security; Autumn 2005 Issue No 1
http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/sr/2005/0574Hagt_Yali.pdf)
First, NFU...in a nuclear war.
Kills the US and Chinese economy
COMMANDER ANDREW ARNOLD 2008 (United States Navy; U.S. Army War College; STRATEGIC
CONSEQUENCES OF CHINA’S EXPANDING MARITIME POWER)
Two issues...economic survival.
Failure would kill the global economy
South China Morning Post January 25, 2009
The Sino-US...global economy.
Bearden
US Pledge would be credible
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Hence, its...credible.
Its reversible, all of your turns become inevitable in a world of Chinese insecurity
Review,14:2,275 — 301)
Yet, despite...counter-deterrence.73
A pledge of No First Use by the United States is the critical element in creating the “mutual strategic trust” necessary
for relations to contain modernization, miscalculation, and accidents that could lead to war
Jeffrey G. Lewis 7/2009 (Jeffrey G. Lewis is Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New
America Foundation; Ph.D. in policy studies (international security and economic policy) from the University of
Maryland; Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009)
The United States...misunderstandings.
U.S.-Sino relations are critical to solve several scenarios for extinction
Sidney Rittenberg 2008 (former Frey Distinguished Professor of Chinese History at the University of North Carolina
(Chapel Hill), where an endowed chair has been announced in his name. He currently is Visiting Professor of China
Studies at Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, Washington, Quoted in the China Daily, (Rikki N. Massand and
Gazelle Emami, “U.S.-China relations at the world's fingertips,” 4-20-2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-
04/20/content_6629700.htm, JMP)
To frame the importance...Rittenberg said.
Deeper strategic coordination is the ONLY way to get to strategic stability in the transition to China’s secure second-
strike capabilities
As China continues...crisis stability.
Advantage Two is “IT’S A TRAP!”
First use isn’t a credible threat and leads to commitment traps that are likely to cause escalation in real emergencies =
higher risk of nuclear conflict – Deterrence did not solve Iraq’s chemical weapons
Toward True Security:Ten Steps the Next President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy 2008
(Federation of American Scientists; http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_08021201A.pdf)
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Advocates of an explicit...nuclear attacks.
Current nuclear posture makes nuclear weapons desirable and more easily useable globally – US policy is modeled
both ways – Obama must act to return to negative security assurances – key to preventing other countries from using
weapons in crisis, preventing proliferation, and restoring US credibility on non-proliferation leadership
Jonathan Granoff 2009 (President Global Security Institute; The Imperative of Preserving and Strengthening the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty; http://www.gsinstitute.org/gsi/pubs/03_26_09_NPT.pdf)
The NPR was...countered.
Proliferation causes much more likely nuclear war
Henry Sokolski, June/July 2009 (executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S.
congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism; Avoiding a
Nuclear Crowd; http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html#n14)
Combine these...ever want.
The alternative to the plan is to believe in the primacy of nuclear deterrence – this hubris results in nuclear conflicts
with major powers - even the best intentions and best deterrence can lead to escalation in crisis
Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press 2006 (Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame;
Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania; The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension
of U.S. Primacy; International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4 (Spring 2006), pp. 7–44)
Third, if Russia...interests abroad.
Lost at Sea 1AC
Cast adrift in a amidst the seas we float an absurd life-raft kamikaze spectacle, a speck of yellow rubber amidst the
frothing black waves and can we really expect anything after the next crest? We have never labored for the sea and its
churning depths are reciprocally indifferent, no different are our precious lives than so much drift wood, equally to be
dashed to pieces against the sharp rocks or to be deposited exhausted onto a beach of soft coral sand still warm from
the day’s sun, and to wake up to a new mystery of life. But though we may leave the sea to return to our safe homes
we have changed very little; the wave-structure of uncertainty is pervasive throughout our psychological realities, and
one day we wake up stolen away by the kidnapping Fates only to be cast adrift once again and find ourselves lost at
sea, drowning in our own irrepressible tides that thrust upon us the hospitality of their dark depths, that grab us by the
hand and lead us down their nightmare-slippery stairwells spiraling towards death. How shall we mourn the dead sailor
who we will all one day become?
Petronius replies:
<< “Think of it,” I exclaimed sadly. “Somewhere in this world some wife perhaps sits waiting for that man, never
doubting his return. Or somewhere a son to whom this storm at sea has no meaning yet. Or a father perhaps; but
surely, surely there ws someone whom he kissed goodbye when he sailed away to death. But drowned! To think our
every human hope must someday come to this, this corpse of great ambitions, this poor drowned body of our dreams!
O gods, and was this once a man, this thing that floats now merely?”
Up unto now I thought I was mourning a stranger, some man I never knew, but at that moment the surf dropped the
body on the beach, face up, its every feature distinct and I recognized the face of Lichas. The very man, Lichas
himself, once so formidable, so terrible and relentless in his hatred of me, now tossed up by the sea almost at my feet!
Fighting my tears no longer, I wept openly, unashamedly, and beat my breast in a frenzy of grief.
“Where are they now,” I cried, “all your anger and your greatness? But two little hours ago you boasted of your pride of
power and your manhood’s strength and yet, what are you now? Food for the fish, for every crawling creature in the
sea. Of all that mighty ship you once commanded, not one poor saving spar is left you in your utter shipwreck. And yet
we scheme and hope, stuffing our foolish hearts with dreams, scrimping and saving, hoarding the wealth we win by
wrong, planning our lives as though we had a thousand years to live! Why, why? One little day ago this man too looked
over his accounts and reckoned up his worth; he too had fixed the day on which he thought his ship would dock. And
now, O gods, how far he lies from his destination! Why, doom is everywhere, at any time. And other things betray, not
just the sea alone. Look how the soldier’s weapons fail him. You see the consummation of your every hope, and what
happens? The great house you built falls in, crumbles, buries you in the rubble of your dreams. The man who had no
time to lose falls from his chariot and loses his time forever. The glutton chokes to death; the miser starves of his own
stinginess. Why, if you calculate our changes in this life, what do they cry but death? Shipwreck is everywhere. But I
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hear someone object: those who drown at sea die unburied. Lord, lord, as though it mattered how this deathbound
flesh should die! Fire or water or wear and tear of time, what does it matter? Death or death: the end is always the
same. But objections again: wild beasts may mutilate the body. And so? Is the fire that someday cremates your corpse
more friendly? Gentle fire, the cruelest death to which an angry master can sentence his slave? Why, what madness al
this frantic pother is, these great efforts to annihilate our bodies completely, so they won’t be mutilated after death!
>>[[#_ftn1|[1]]]
We in debate hold onto our own arbitrary formulas of certainty that we believe infuse our activity with vitality, where in
reality they are merely the patchwork of a lifeboat lost at sea that constantly appears to be coming apart at the seams.
We have built an activity out of logical artifice, frames of reference for competition designed to established norms and
inject them with moral meaning: this right, that wrong, this good, that bad and so on. This process of coding debate
through morality is the same impossible task of preserving the body for perfect immolation: why need the holy object of
sacrifice be pure? This type of naive devotion to eternal purity becomes truly pathetic in the face of the waves crashing
down around us. There has never been a question of if, debate will change because like the sea itself change is the
character of its very structure, and just as in life we must use debate to abandon form and become students of the
mind, as Chuang Tzu elucidates:
<< Once a man receives this fixed bodily form, he holds on to it, waiting for the end. Sometimes clashing with things,
sometimes bending before them, he runs his course like a galloping steed, and nothing can stop him. Is he not
pathetic? Sweating and laboring to the end of his days and never seeing his accomplishment, utterly exhausting
himself and never knowing where to look for rest— can you help pitying him? His body decays, his mind follows it—
can you deny that this is a great sorrow? Man’s life has always been a muddle like this. How could I be the only
muddled one, and other men not muddled?>>[[#_ftn2|[2]]]
Those who struggle in their lifeboats must be realists in order to avoid being pathetic, in order to refuse being reduced
to merely the thrust of their inept wills, the sum of their inadvertent consequences and perverse mistakes. How little in
this life do we intend that actually takes place? Our disposition towards the swelling sea is a grim sense of this reality
approaching us, washing over us, taking us further. And by the twist of fates, we wake up, sick with our own
monstrosity, sick with guilt over foiled plans and the repression of our liberated futures, sick with our own betrayal of
the chaotic world.
We wake from the dreams of our own uncontrolled insanities to find ourselves still dreaming new illusions of control,
illusions of stability, of peace, of justice, of right and wrong and good and evil locked in unending hatred of the of the
solar matador’s mocking temptations, that makes our will charge flailingly pell-mell upon the innocent sky that shrieks
in terror and flees over the horizon, leaving us alone to die in gasping darkness. This moment of wakefulness is the
negative epiphany of utter humility, where the structures of oppression and control are illuminated as a treason against
the Sun, against the uncertainty of the chaotic world and a vision that waking up adrift on a life raft lost at sea we can
somehow continue building our castle ramparts from the crashing waves. Gordon narrates:
I have a recurring dream: I am lost at sea. Murderous waves crash down, a gale howls. Barely able to stay afloat, I
thrash about, panic-stricken. Without direction, I have no idea how to get to safety. The feeling is utter chaos.
Desperate, I’m bailing like a madman, trying to empty the ocean with a bucket. I am, as Alice would say, running twice
as hard as I can to stay exactly where I am. Through my confusion and despair, I hear whispered words, “Lord help me
for my boat is so small and your sea is so immense.” This is the point when I inevitably wake up. Naturally, I am greatly
relieved that it has only been a dream, until it dawns on me that there’s not much difference between my dreaming and
waking life. Making my way through the day, I am indeed overwhelmed by a sea of detail that I can’t ever seem to get
a handle on—family, finances, health, job—all the variables of my life rushing toward me in flood of chaotic uncertainty.
This is not my beautiful life. Where are the security and order that was promised me? All my carefully constructed
truths, everything I have counted on and identified with, seems suddenly false or lost or changing. And when I pick up
the morning newspaper, there’s more. Not only my life but the whole world seems to be deconstructing. I’m back in my
dream—drowning in a sea of uncertainty. Having practiced for many years as a psychotherapist, I have good reason to
believe that I am not alone in my anxiety; it is common to a great majority of those of us living in the modern industri-
alized world. In Care of the Soul, one of the most widely read books of the past decade, psychologist Thomas Moore
(1992) lists emptiness, a loss of core values, and the general malaise of meaninglessness as hallmarks of our culture.
It is hard to deny Moore’s assertion. Only pick up a copy of Time magazine or turn on the TV. Everywhere we look,
images of discord and dissent remind us that the political, economic, and social structures we once held as inviolable
are rapidly eroding. Our typical response to chaos is an instinctual drive to impose order and regain control. Our fear of
uncertainty often impels us toward irrational and sometimes bizarre behavior. As in my dream where I am trying to
empty the ocean with a bucket, such neurotic activity does little to assuage our anxiety and may even serve to
increase it. And neither should we imagine that only individuals can be affected in this way. Stalinism, Nazism,
McCarthyism, and fundamentalism of all stripes are examples of the kind of irrationality of which institutions and
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governments are capable in the name of order. Rollo May (1977) stated that totalitarianism “may be viewed as serving
a purpose on a cultural scale parallel to that in which a neurotic symptom protects an individual from a situation of
unbearable anxiety” (p. 12). His further statement that “people grasp at political authoritarianism in the desperate need
for relief from anxiety” (May, 1977, p. 12) suggests that perhaps, in the end, it is precisely our resistance to chaos and
uncertainty and our almost pathological need to impose order where there may, in fact, be none at all, that is the cause
of so much of our dis-ease. I am reminded of the words of systems theorist Kenneth Boulding, who warned that we
always “run into the temptation of imposing an order on the universe which may not really be there” (Stamps, 1980, p.
i).]
We refuse to impose false order onto the rushing waves of chaos, nor do we feel obliged to plan our own futile future,
for as Petronius says: “There is little point in expecting much of your own projects, when Fate has projects of her own.”
Plans are not predictable loci of definite action, but rather false blueprints for impossible buildings that exist in the
nowhere continuum of the future that cannot be specified before it is accomplished. Nuclear weapons are exactly such
false blueprints, built and sealed in silos to decay for fifty years as their plutonium cores break down and dissipate, as
their radioactivity infects the world with vibrant mutation and poisons our blood with leukemia and death. We will affirm
the resolution as an affirmation against the plan of nuclear weapons as eternal, as the irrevocable flux of their
radioactive decay transmitting a micropolitics of dissolution for the oppressive structures that crush the life out from the
assemblages of all vital materials. Like all best laid plans of mice, men and universes, we must love the quixotic fate of
the nuclear weapons becoming, as they will return to the swirling particles in the manifold ocean of strange waves of
flux and adrift alone, lost at sea.
Plan from Kentucky Doubles v. Wichita
The United States federal government should allow the radioactive components of its nuclear arsenal to decay.
] Petronius “The Satyricon” trans. William Arrowsmith, New York: Meridian Books, 1959 p. 124-125
] Chuang Tzu “Chuang Tzu: Basic Writings” trans. Burton Watson, New York: Columbia University Press, 1964 p.33-
34
] Kerry Gordon, “The Impermanence of Being: Toward A Psychology Of Uncertainty” Journal of Humanistic
Psychology 2003; 43; 96
Gordon is a PhD psychology of philosophy and director of a research center on chaos/uncertainty
War Games 1AC Kentucky Octas v. WGA
We play "Interview with T.A." a youtube cartoon by Brad Neely
The nuclear discourse of these hysterical academics is the modern day equivalent of playing with toy soldiers except
that the territory of the battlefield has now become virtual. There is nowhere to outflank your enemy or organize troops
into formation; the nuclear battlefield is conducted in the space of representation, ordering and re-ordering the
phalanxes of imagined mushroom clouds aesthetically around the invisible enemy. Like Professors Frank and Steve, it
is our sterile sequestration in the academic sphere that cause our longing to playing with “real shit” and ultimately
represents a retreat into apocalyptic nonsense as our imaginations endlessly re-enact the playful catastrophes in a
futile attempt to escape from our truncated realities: the elevator door has opened and we find ourselves choked with
the sulfurs of our own present Hell.This juvenalia of desperate imaginations are an endless replication of subjectivity
into a million miniaturized apocalypse figures: individuals are transformed by the massnuclear annihilation into a
generic “us against us” that erases humanity
Mengham ‘8 Rod, White Cube, gallery “JAKE AND DINOS CHAPMAN AND THE SURPLUS VALUE OF HELL” May
http://www.whitecube.com/artists/chapman/texts/156/
This reproducibility of subjectivity is re-enacted in the simulation of nuclear war games where our forces are set on
alert against a horde of mythical invented enemies that enter arrive from the digital imaginations of military planners to
become complicit with academic constructions of violence. Armies are constantly mobilized for the war that will never
happen, however it is paradoxically this mobilization that creates the condition for real-world atrocities
Der Derian '90 James, Professor of International Affairs at Brown University"The Simulation Syndrome: From War
Games to Game Wars"
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Source: Social Text, No. 24 (1990), pp. 187-192
And that's why we oppose the United States federal government nuclear arsenal's war games mission.
Danger and fear are not apolitical—the hysteria of frustrated meaninglessness towards the unknown through
academia and university spaces like this debate round generate a feeling of entertainment that creates the illusion that
we are spectators of political action as we might be spectators of a horror movie. We therefore become passive and
cede our agency to the violence of the state
Schaffer ‘2 Butler, Law Professor at Southwestern University, “The Bogeyman is Hiding” Lew Rockwell, October 5
http://www.lewrockwell.com/shaffer/shaffer29.html
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Northwestern Beiermeister/Xu (NFU-Terror) [DCH]
Vs Fullerton BG
Terrorists have the capacity to build nuclear weapons

Bunn et al 7 [Matthew, John P. Holdren, Anthony Wier, Assistant Director of the Science, Technology, and Public
Policy program at Harvard's School of Gov't, "Securing The Bomb: 2007” September, Project on Managing the Atom,
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative,
www.nti.org/securingthebomb]
If terrorists could …..until it was too late.27
And Al Qaeda is gearing up for attacks

Kimery 8/7 [Anthony L., Homeland Security Today, "Al Qaeda seen as the primary terrorist threat for many years",
August 7th, 2009, http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9715/150/]
“Adaptive and highly resilient…. bin Laden’s “whereabouts.”
Even though Nuclear Terrorism would kills thousands or millions of people, it is NOT an existential risk – Government
exaggerate the threat for political reasons
Kavan Wolfe, 2009 [Kavan Wolfe is a Canadian author, IT consultant, “Imaginary Existential Threats”,
http://thewaronbullshit.com/2009/06/25/exaggerated_threats/]
Without venturing into ….things: money and power.
In particular, Current deterrence policy commits the US to nuclear strikes against any country that leaks nuclear
materials to terrorists. This prescribes a nuclear solution to a diplomatic problem—ensures retaliation against ALL
negligent countries post-terror attack—escalates to fullscale nuclear war
Beljac 8 [Marko, PhD at Monash University, Teaches at LaTrobe University and the University of Melbourne, "The
nuclear terror of Bush 'negligence policy", June 16th, Eureka Street, Vo 18 No 12,
http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=7585]
It was not widely reported, ….is in military posturing.
Retaliatory threats gut international cooperation and fosters mistrust of the US—shared intelligence with other
countries is key to containing post-terror-attack responses
Bleek 7 [Phillip C., Nonresident Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a PhD candidate in
the Department of Government at Georgetown University. This paper was written while he was a Visiting
Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Deterring, Compelling, and Cooperating with States to
Bar Non-State Routes to the Bomb", A collection of Papers From the 2007 PONI Conference Series", CSIS,]
Compellence Compellence refers to ….elaborated on in the conclusion, below.
Lack of international cooperation means states will cover-up stolen matierals in the event of terrorist theft
Levi 8 [Michael A., PhD in war studies, University of London, David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energ and the
environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. former fellow on foreign policy at the Brookings Institute, "Deterring
State Sponsorship of Terrorism", Council Special Report No. 39, September 2008]
U.S. threats will not ….theft might open a state to punishment.
Cooperation and trust with other states is key to interdict terrorist plots and smuggling chains
Lee 9 [Rens, author of "Smuggling Armageddon" and a senior fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute, "Toward an
Intelligence-based Nuclear Cooperation Regime", July,
http://www.fpri.org/enotes/200907.lee.intelligencenuclarcooperation.html]
Russian-American collaboration against …a time and place that we least expect.
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Threats of retaliation INCENTIVIZE nuclear terrorism—gives terrorists political support needed to carry out attacks
because retaliation would set off a chain of warfare
Beljac 8 [Marko, PhD at Monash University, Teaches at LaTrobe University and the University of Melbourne, “Pakistan
and the prospects for nuclear terrorism”, Australian Policy Online, February 8th,
http://apo.org.au/commentary/pakistan-and-prospects-nuclear-terrorism]
One disturbing option that …without detailed actionable intelligence.
PLAN: The United States Federal Government should declare that the United States will not initiate nuclear retaliation
against states for the transfer of nuclear explosive devices or materials.
Calls for massive retaliation is part of the ongoing militarization of the public sphere that reads terrorism through the
language of war
Henry A. Giroux, Professor of Education at Boston University, 2003
Public Spaces, Private Lives
In the aftermath of the monstrous events….work before the terrorist attacks
We must recognize terrorism is a legitimate threat while rejecting its militarization—the politics of fear employed by
Bush doctrine strategies make endless military intervention, the erosion of rights, and the very conditions for terrorism
inevitable
Kohn 9 [Richard H., Professor of History and Adjunct Professor of Peace, War, and Defense at the University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill. A two-term president of the Society for Military History (1989–93), he has served on the
faculties of the City College of the City University of New York, Rutgers University–New Brunswick, Dickinson College,
and the Army and National war colleges, and as the Chief of Air Force History for the U.S. Air Force (1981–91), "The
Danger of Militarization in an Endless "War" on Terrorism, Journal of Military HIstory, Volume 73, Number 1, January,
Project Muse]
A Global War on Terrorism that may last….to get the better of them."111
This militarism is pervasive—causes paralyzing fear that strips citizens of democratic rights—leads to permanent
warfare and silencing of the public sphere
Giroux 4 [Henry A., PhD, Professor of Education at Boston Univesrity, "War on Terror, The Militarising of Public Space
and the Culture in the United States, Third Text, Vol. 18, Issue 4, 2004. 211-221]
Militarism in both its old ….any real semblance of democracy.
The response to Terrorist must be Hope, not fear --- It is the only thing that can challenge the depoliticization of the
publicsphere
“WHEN HOPE IS SUBVERSIVE”, 40 TIKKUN VOL. 19, NO. 6
Is it possible to imagine hope …. for a global democracy.
Engaging the political sphere by connecting anti-militarist strategies to international cooperation is the only effective
way to challenge and expose the looming culture of fear
Giroux 4 [Henry A., PhD, Professor of Education at Boston Univesrity, "War on Terror, The Militarising of Public Space
and the Culture in the United States, Third Text, Vol. 18, Issue 4, 2004. 211-221]
As militarisation spreads its influence …. abroad stands in the balance.
And Hope must be grounded in the political – The alternative can’t challenge the far right’s militarization of the public
sphere
“Cultural Studies in Dark Times: Public Pedagogy and the Challenge of Neoliberalism”
As the Right wages a …. vital to a substantive democracy.
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Northwestern Blumenthal/Friend (NFU-CBW) [DCH]
Northwestern Blumenthal and Friend AFF

Gonzaga Octos
Framework Answers
Adherence to demo established norms of communication is the baseline for effective politics
Richard wolin the seduction of unreason p 312-313
“the postmodernists, on the other hand…..more than lost cause”
Lack of a postivie of specific desription of a better world leave project inept

Stephen duncombe in 2k1 notes from underground p 184-185
“I regularly ask…..a political strategy”
Specific demand and institutional engagement solves right wing takeover

Michael Hogan in 94, the nuclear freeze campaign: rhetoric and foreign policy in the telpolitical age pg 30-31
“confused by the mixed messages….a two to one margin”
Pg 19
“yet the rhetoric of the freeze….gathering in us history”
Pg 192
“looking closely at their rhetoric…ideas without selling out”
Failure to prioritize policy cedes public sphere to elites makes war inevitable
Carl boggs the end of politics pg 250-251
“but it is a very deceptive and misleading…muddling-through theories”
Concrete policy action gets co opted by bureaucracy

Joe cirincione in 2k9, the nuclear posture landmine: an interview with joe cirincione, online
“going from there….just the way they are”
Political strategy of civic engagement with nuclear institutions

Mcclean 1 “the cultural left and the limits of social hope” online
“leftist American culture….so-called managerial class”
Public engagement in nucler issues holds policymakers accountable

stimson center in 2k1 beyon deterrence: a global approach to reducing nuclear dangers, online
“ironically, a full decade out….with political impunity”
Acadmia is key on nuclear debates-translates into political change

Doug shaw, the role of higher education in transforming nuclear weapons policy, online
“the one thing we know…it a long time ago”
Rejecting predictions makes it impossible to convince policymakers to reduce arms

Michael fitzsimmons survival vol 48 no 4 p 139
“admittedly, the role played by strategic uncertainty…bureaucratic political power”
“another well-publicised instance….rather than flexibility”
“finally, the planning….to these predictions”
This training is vital to activism and politics learning how to defend specific demand key to movements
Makani themba Nixon, colorlines 3.2
“much of the work…..making it so”
People will ignore 1ac bc you don’t give the other sid ea fair chance to respond
Michael underwood, psychology of communication, online
“whether or not you should include…more intelligent audience”
The aff can’t get off the ground it is considered too utopian allows opponents to dominate the debate
Daniel deudney on security, ciao
“the third consequence of the public’s….emergence of the working class
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Failure to inform ourselves about the policy process guarantees an endless cycle of iraqs
Doublas kellner in 2k3, an Orwellian nightmare: critical reflections on the bush administration, online
“after the collapse of the baath regime…..a human being”
Fracture of left causes things like war in iraq

Jessica Dempsey and james rowe
www.praxis-epress.org/rtcp/jdjkr.pdf
“epstein’s essay was published in the wake….mobilizing against the war”
Gonzaga Prelims
1ac
The United States Federal Government should retract the policy of potential nuclear retaliation in response to chemical
and biological attacks.
The current US position of calculated ambiguity allows the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to CBW
attacks.
Uri Fisher, PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado-Boulder, 2007
Deterrence, Terrorism, and American Values, http://www.hsaj.org/?fullarticle=3.1.4
Currently, the U.S. …target audience.” 15
Obama’s NPR will continue calculated ambiguity

Anya Loukianova, Monterey Institute for Int’l Studies, and James Martin, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2009
The Nuclear Posture Review Debate, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_nuclear_posture_review_debate.html
The congressional Strategic Posture …only in extreme circumstances."
Advantage 1: Deterrence Failure
CBW deterrence failure’s inevitable under calculated ambiguity

Scott D. Sagan, Associate Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and
Cooperation at Stanford University, 2000 The Commitment Trap, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 4 (Spring 2000),
pp. 85–115
What is relevant, however, is …U.S. attack on their rival.
The threat of nuclear retaliation increases deterrence failure

Cooperation at Stanford University, 2000
The Commitment Trap, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 4 (Spring 2000), pp. 85–115
The fifth and final type of /…warrant extreme retribution.
Lack of low-yield options crushes nuclear deterrence credibility

Uri Fisher, PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado-Boulder, 2007
Deterrence, Terrorism, and American Values, Homeland Security Affairs Journal 3.1, http://www.hsaj.org/?
fullarticle=3.1.4
In addition to articulating …transferring CBRN capabilities to terrorists.
Bio-weapons use goes global—extinction

Alexander, ‘7 (Timothy, M.A. in European Studies, Former Scottish Editor of Burke’s Peerage, B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. &
History; October 22nd, “War On Iran = You Die from Biowar”, Op Ed News, Lord Stirling,
http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_lord_sti_071020_war_on_iran__3d_you_di.htm)
We have been conditioned, by … profound risk to their own lives.
Conventional weapons solve deterrence – more credible

Charles L. Glaser, Professor Deputy Dean of Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago,
and Steve Fetter, Professor and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, 2005
Counterforce Revisited, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 84–126
Moreover, the U.S. …credibility problem.
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Conventional retaliation and existential deterrence solve best

As noted previously, …commitment trap’ problems.
Advantage Two: The Commitment Trap
Calculated ambiguity creates a commitment trap that forces nuclear retaliation after CBW attack
Beneath the question of…forthcoming, bolstering deterrence.
Calculated ambiguity guarantees nuclear retaliation in the most likely future conflicts
Scott D. Sagan, Associate Prof of PoliSci & Co-Dir of the Center for International Security And Cooperation at
Stanford, 2001
Responding to Chemical and Biological Threats, International Security 25.4 (2001) 196-198
Nuclear threats are a …nuclear weapons in retaliation.
And, the threat of nuclear retaliation forces nuclear retaliation even after rational deterrence failures – collapses US
leadership
Deterrence may fail for …an ultimate ‘commitment trap’.
And, the Cold war proves the most likely scenarios for nuclear war result from nuclear threats
Cooperation at Stanford University, 2000 The Commitment Trap, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 4 (Spring 2000),
pp. 85–115
It is disturbing to note that …with chemical and biological weapons.
Even absent retaliation, calculated ambiguity provides the greatest incentive for nuclear early use
Martin Butcher, director of security programs for Physicians for Social Responsibility, former director of the British
American Security Information Council, former director of the Center for European Security and Disarmament, 2003
The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Counterproliferation, www.psr.org/documents/psrwhatwrong03.pdf
In 1997, President Clinton …nuclear use by a U.S. enemy.
Collpase of US hegemony causes global instability and major war --- no viable replacement
Robert Knowles 9, Assistant Professor – New York University School of Law, AMERICAN HEGEMONY AND THE
FOREIGN AFFAIRS CONSTITUTION, Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 41, 2009
First, the “hybrid” hegemonic …it would suffer the most.
These conflicts go nuclear --- leadership diffuses them

Robert Kagan 7, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior transatlantic fellow at
the German Marshall Fund, August/September 2007, The Hoover Policy Review, online:
http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html, accessed August 17, 2007
The jostling for status and influence a…or it could simply make them more catastrophic.
Nuclear response to deterrence failure causes WMD terrorism and prolif

Michael J. Garcia, federal prosecutor with the Office of the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, 2003
A Necessary Response: The Lack of Domestic and International Constraints Upon a U.S. Nuclear Response to a
Terrorist Attack, 1 Geo. J.L. & Pub. Pol'y 515
If certain actors are …ever-growing nuclear threat by the U.S." n207
Nuclear retaliation’s not key – only a risk the threat emboldens terrorists
Richard Butler, Distinguished Scholar of International Peace and Security at Penn State, 2003
Fatal Choice, p.91
Although to many this might …the brutal image they hold of it.
Terrorists can acquire and use nukes --- attack escalates to full-scale nuclear war
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Speice 6 [Patrick F. Speice, Jr. is an associate in Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher's Washington, D.C. office. Mr. Speice
currently practices in the firm’s International Trade Regulation and Compliance Department, focusing on export
controls and economic sanctions compliance, and in the firm's Litigation Department. He earned his J.D. in 2006 from
the Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of William & Mary, where he served as an Articles Editor for the
William and Mary Law Review and as a Graduate Research Fellow. Mr. Speice earned a B.A. in political science cum
laude in 2003 from Wake Forest University “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation,” William & Mary Law Review, 47
Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February]
Accordingly, there is a …use of nuclear weapons.
Calculated ambiguity lowers the threshold of nuclear use across the globe – guarantees nuclear escalation of regional
confrontations
2002
Even more dangerously counter…in many regional confrontations.
Nuclear use backfires – emboldens enemies and alienates allies

Jason Arvak, former professor of International Relations, spent 15 years in USAF, 5 at Stratcom, 2008
Of Linus and Nuclear Weapons, http://www.poligazette.com/2008/01/02/of-linus-and-nuclear-weapons/
Politically, use of nuclear …China during the Korean War.
And, the costs of nuclear retaliation outweigh the benefits – adversaries are deterred from worst-case strikes
regardless of US posture
Scott D. Sagan, Associate Prof of PoliSci & Co-Dir of the Center for International Security And Cooperation at
Stanford, 2001
Responding to Chemical and Biological Threats, International Security 25.4 (2001) 196-198
I agree that the differentiation …regardless of statements made ahead of time.
Advantage Three: Proliferation
Prolif’s increasing --- will cause nuclear catastrophe

William J. Perry, Chairman, and James R. Schlesinger, Vice-Chairman, Congressional Commission on the Strategic
Posture of the United States, 2009
America’s Strategic Posture, http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf
We stand today at a …preventing nuclear catastrophe.
Calculated ambiguity elevates the value of WMD’s – increases prolif

HSC, Henry L. Stimson Center, nonprofit, nonpartisan global security think tank based in Washington, DC, 2001
Beyond Deterrence: A Global Approach to Reducing Nuclear Dangers http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-
Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0C54E3B3-1E9C-BE1E-2C24-A6A8C7060233&lng=en&id=93679
General John Shalikashvili, …and biological weapons as well.
Threats of nuclear retaliation incentivize WMD prolif

Harold A. Feiveson, Senior Research Policy Scientist and Lecturer in Public and Int’l Affairs at Princeton, 1999
The Nuclear Turning Point: A Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-alerting of Nuclear Weapons,
http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/1999-Brook-c3.pdf
There are also practical …the inutility of these weapons.
Calculated ambiguity undermines the nuclear taboo and cooperation necessary to solve proliferation
Steve Fetter, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland and an affiliate of the Project on
Managing the Atom at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2003
U.S. Nuclear Posture: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back, http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/2003-P&S-
NPR.pdf
The benefits of these …or any country is beyond the pale.
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And, keeping nuclear retaliation on the table crushes NPT and NSA credibility
Martin Butcher, director of security programs for Physicians for Social Responsibility, former director of the British
American Security Information Council, former director of the Center for European Security and Disarmament, 2003
The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Counterproliferation, www.psr.org/documents/psrwhatwrong03.pdf
The National Strategy to …controversy in the NPT review process.
Widespread proliferation causes quick nuclear escalation of every security development

Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, 2009
Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July
There are limits, however, /…nor their critics, would ever want.
Failure to reinvigorate the nuke nonprolif regime guarantees rapid and escalatory nuke wars
Muller, director of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt and professor of international relations at Frankfurt
University, 2008
Harald, The Future of Nuclear Weapons in an Interdependent World, Washington Quarterly 31.2
The NPT is the …access are available to terrorists.
Ending ambiguity’s key to solve proliferation

Robert Civiak, former Office of Management and Budget Examiner for the DOE’s Nuclear Weapons Programs, 2009
Transforming the U.S. Strategic Posture and Weapons Complex for Transition to a Nuclear Weapons-Free World,
http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_09040701a.pdf
Rather than calming …from its global military posture.
Damage to nonproliferation outweighs any small deterrence addition – existential capabilities are enough
Harold A. Feiveson, Senior Research Policy Scientist and Lecturer in Public and Int’l Affairs at Princeton, 1999
The Nuclear Turning Point: A Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-alerting of Nuclear Weapons,
http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/1999-Brook-c3.pdf
Even if the use of …use nuclear weapons.
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Wayne State Jarrett/Pasquinelli (NFU) [DCH]
AFF at Richmond
C1: NFU
Obama will not adopt NFU
Andy Butfoy, Survival, Oct-Nov 2008, pp 115-140
Plan: The United States Federal Government should adopt a no nuclear first use declaratory policy towards Non-
Nuclear Weapon States, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, India, and Pakistan.
A1: NK
NFU is an incentive that gets NK to roll back
Pilat, Washhington Quarterly, 2005, p 167-168
“The security assurances to these Soviet successor states...address the Iranian nuclear program.”
NK on the brink of negotiation, talks will make security assurance \s conditional on nuclear disarmament now
Reuters 9-21-2009
“U.S. President Barack Obama said North Korean leader...laid down the process in several states.”
The irrational nature of NK leadership make a nuke strike against Japan, SK, or the US one of the most probable
scenarios for strike and massive retaliation
George Quester, Nuclear First Strike: Consequences of a Broken Taboo, 2005, p 5-7
NK prolif increaes the risk of Asian War
Jonathan Pollack, North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program to 2015: Three Scenarios, January 2007, RAND
Asian Conflict goes nuclear
Jonathan Landry, Knight Ridder, Marhc 10, 2000
NK prolif = Nuke terrorism
Terrorism is the most probable impact—an attack inevitable in 5 years if we fail to act
This results in extinction
Even if we don’t solve nuclearization, diplomatic progress is key t osolve the impacts of regime collapse
Stares and Wit, 2009, “Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea.”
“Establishing broader contacts with Pyongyang...would have similar benefits”
The impact is superpower conflict
Stares and Wit, 2009, “Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea.”
“These various scenarios would preent the United States...American intervention in the North.”
Non-nuclear NPT states have explictily called for the plan—it’s vital to resolve U.S. Hypocrisy on prolif and fears of
preemption
A2: UN Sanctions
Obama pushing for UN sanctions (Iran)
UN sanctions needed by December to solve Israeili Strikes
This risks a great power war
All life on the planet will be destroyed
And, sanctions key to UN credibility
Credible UN solves multiple hotspots
Great power nuclear wars
US unilateral cconcessions on NFU get Russian coop on Iran
Stanley Foundation, April 22, 2008
“In the manner of the previous unilateral...nonproliferaion and disarmament framework.”
NFU key to getting UN sanctions on Iran
Stanley Foundation February 20-22, 2009
“Commenting on this post-Cold War panel’s results...eliminate nuclear weapons as a threat to the worlds.”
US concessions to Russia are key
Andranik Migranyan, National Interest, 8/13/2009
“It is imperative that our U.S. Partners understand that maintaining...and take American concerns into account.”
UN sanctions are needed to prevent US unilateral sanctions
Kyoto Perspective, 9/15/2009
“U.S. Senators Evan Bayh...Security Council adopts more stringent multilateral sanctions.”
Advantages: UN Sanctions, North Korea, Iran
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West Georgia McCampbell/Simonis (NFU) [DCH]
Observation 1: The window of opportunity
In the forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review, the Obama administration has a chance to reduce the role of nuclear
weapons in our national security strategy by repudiating Cold War thinking and adopting a no-first use doctrine.
Sagan 9 [Scott D., Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center
forInternational Security and Cooperation. Survival vol. 51 no. 3 June–July pp. 163–182]
Hence the plan: The United States Federal Government should adopt a declaratory posture committing to no first use
of nuclear weapons.
Advantage One: US nuclear escalation
Scenario One- Commitment trap
Multiple scenarios cause deterrence failure for chemical or biological weapons
Sagan 2K [Scott D., Director of CISAC and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University; "The Commitment
Trap: Why the United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks."
International Security, September, Vol. 24, No. 4 http://www.jstor.org/stable/2539316]
The status quo policy of “calculated ambiguity” toward CBWs creates a commitment trap, causing the US to escalate
to nuclear first use in the event of deterrence failure in order maintain the credibility of its threat.
International Security and Cooperation. Survival vol. 51 no. 3 June–July pp. 163–182)
Scenario 2: Mission Creep

Using nuclear weapons as a deterrent to non-nuclear “WMDs” causes mission creep which justifies nuclear first use in
an increasing number of contingencies.
Butfoy 8(Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 01 October,
Survival, vol. 50 no. 5)
Scenario 3: Mini-Nukes
Retaining first use options against CBWs causes reliance on low-yield nuclear weapons which make nuclear weapons
appear more usable.
Tannenwald 5 [Nina, Director of the International Relations Program and Joukowsky Family Research Assistant
Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, “Stigmatizing the Bomb Origins of the
Nuclear Taboo”, International Security, Vol. 29, No. 4, Spring, pp. 5–49, http://ts.isil.westga.edu/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=17434672&site=ehost-live]
A credible firebreak between nuclear and conventional weapons is the only barrier to global nuclear annihilation.
Schwartz & Derber 91 (Schwartz, William A., and Charles Derber, et al The Nuclear Seduction: Why the Arms Race
Doesn't Matter--And What Does. Berkeley: University of California Press, c1990.
http://ark.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft1n39n7wg/)
Finally, actual first use by the US would be catastrophic- it would shatter the NPT, destroy the taboo against nuclear
use for terrorists and states alike, and encourage further nuclear use by Russia, China, India, and Pakistan.
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Feiveson and Hogendoorn 3 (Harold A., senior research scientist and co-director of the Program on Science and
Global Security at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University, and Ernst Jan, Ph.D. student at the Woodrow
Wilson School, “No First Use of Nuclear Weapons”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer)
Advantage Two: Proliferation- we’ll isolate ___ internal links
First, Hypocrisy:
US use of nuclear weapons for diplomatic objectives undermines the credibility of our NPT disarmament commitments
Butfoy 8(Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 01 October,
Second, Prestige:
First use policies inflate the value of nuclear weapons by affirming that they are a military necessity- adopting an NFU
posture is key to reinforcing international norms against nuclear acquisition and use.
Graham and Mendelsohn 99 (Thomas, President of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security, and Jack, Executive
Director and Vice President of LAWS, "NATO's Nuclear Weapons Policy and the No-First-Use Option", THE
INTERNATIONAL SPECTATOR VOLUME XXXIV, No. 4, October – December, http://www.iai.it/pdf/articles/graham
%20and%20mendelssohn.pdf)
Third, Negative Security Assurances:
First use options undermine negative security assurances which are key to the viability of the entire nonproliferation
regime.
Graham and Mendelsohn 99

(Thomas, President of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security, and Jack, Executive Director and Vice President of
LAWS, "NATO's Nuclear Weapons Policy and the No-First-Use Option", THE INTERNATIONAL SPECTATOR
VOLUME XXXIV, No. 4, October – December, http://www.iai.it/pdf/articles/graham%20and%20mendelssohn.pdf)
Fourth, Iran
US no-first-use declaration will increase international diplomatic support for tougher measures against new
proliferators like Iran. Further, US nuclear threats empower forces which favor nuclear weapons development in Iran.
Advantage 3: India
India directly models US first use “hedges” in their own nuclear doctrine. This increases the likelihood of nuclear
escalation in future conflicts with Pakistan, and causes regional proliferation.
India-Pakistan war means extinction

Ghulam Nabi Fai, Executive Director, Kashmiri American Council,
WASHINGTON TIMES, September 8, 2001, p. 1
Proliferation causes extinction – nuclear arms races and miscalculated nuclear war.
Utgoff 2 (Deputy Director of the Strategy Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, Victor,
“Proliferation, Missile Defence, and American Ambitions,” Survival, Volume 44, Number 2, Summer)
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Advantage 4: China
A. US first use plans undermine the foundation of non-proliferation, causing destructive arms races with Russia and
China, and pushing other countries to adopt similar postures. This risks Chinese revocation of their No First Use
pledge.
Krieger and Ong ‘2 (David and Carah, president and Director of Publications and Research at the Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, “No First Use”, April, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/04/00_krieger_no-first-use.htm)
Rollback of China’s No-First-Use policy will result in increased tension, a nuclear arms race, and increases risks of
both intentional and accidental or unauthorized global nuclear exchange.
Zhenqiang 5 (Pan, Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, retired Major General of
http://se1.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=ISN&fileid=A755A706-0DEF-9BDE-0865-
85AAED920C65&lng=en, Acc. Jul 28, 2009)
Even if China doesn’t explicitly roll back their no-first-use policy – United States first use postures increase risk of US-
China nuclear conflict.
http://www.wsichina.org/attach/CS2_3.pdf, AD: 7-29-09)
Straits Times 2k [“Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan,” lexis]
A US declaration of no first use would ease tensions, and prevent a US-Sino arms race.
Observation 2:
Declaratory policy matters- Even if the plan is only symbolic, adopting a NFU policy has “trickle down” effects on war
planners, signaling that nuclear use is not appropriate in any contingency. Plan also changes the context for debates
among both policymakers and the public regarding the usability of nuclear weapons, and reinforces international
norms against the spread and use of nuclear weapons.
Martin and Sagan et al 8
(Matt Martin, Program Officer, Policy Analysis and Dialogue @ The Stanley Foundation, Scott Sagan, Co-Director of
the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Professor of Political Science @ Stanford, and the staff of
the Stanley Foundation, “A New Look at No First Use of Nuclear Weapons”, August 22, MaximsNews Network,
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm, Accessed:
8/03/09)
Your arguments about extended deterrence are rhetorical tactics to keep weapons that have no basis in the real world
Butfoy 8 (Andy, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 01 October,
Adopting an NFU policy reinforces the credibility of our extended deterrent by emphasizing conventional responses to
conventional acts, eliminating fears that the US will renege on its commitments.
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Now is the key time- a NFU declaration ends US inconsistency regarding negative security assurances, which is key to
a successful 2010 NPT Review Conference.
Negative arguments based on defenses of “ambiguity” or uncertainty, CBW deterrence, and lack of verification
collapse under scrutiny. The benefits of NFU far outweigh any of their case turns.
Feiveson and Hogendoorn 3 (Harold A., senior research scientist and co-director of the Program on Science and
Global Security at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University, and Ernst Jan, Ph.D. student at the Woodrow
Wilson School, “No First Use of Nuclear Weapons”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer) *modified for gendered
language
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Whitman Cohn/Strauss (NFU) [DCH]
Harvard - Round 6 (Aff vs. Georgetown)

India Pakistan Add-On
Chinese nuclear modernization drives destabilizing Indo-Pak arms competition
Michael Krepon, founder of Stimson Center, 2nd Quarter 2009, “Nuclear Arms and the Future of South Asia,” Joint
Force Quarterly, iss. 53, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/editions/i53/9.pdf#search=%22%27nuclear%20arms
%20and%20the%20future%20of%20south%20asia%22
The accelerating pace of China’s strategic modernization programs will feed into India’s calculations for a minimal
nuclear deterrent, which in turn will feed into Pakistan’s perceived needs. The China-India- Pakistan nuclear triangle is
likely to be the primary axis of vertical proliferation over the next 10 years or more. While this competition will fall well
short of an arms race—at least in Cold War terms—it will work against nuclear stabilization on the subcontinent.
Sparks a nuclear war

Asian News International, 12-7-2008, “US commission says urgent need,” ln
China is also fuelling the arms race, both by increasing its own strategic forces and by not stopping the Chinese
entities from supporting Pakistan's strategic programmes, says the report, adding, at present, all three are expanding
their nuclear arsenals with no clear end in sight. The report also warned that Pakistan's tense relationship with India
and its build-up of nuclear weapons; could exacerbate the prospect of a dangerous nuclear arms race in South Asia
that could lead to a nuclear conflict.
Kentucky Round Robin - Race 7 (Aff vs. Oklahoma)
Russian securitization of US strategic capabilities results in first strike

Benjamin Schwarz, national editor of The Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2006, “The Perils of Primacy,” The Atlantic,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/primacy
Today, however, one countryAND for scrutiny and debate to begin.
Russian strikes would be designed for counterforce disarming – wouldn’t hit population centers
Richard Fleetwood, founder of SurvivalRing, 9-27-2009, “Civil Defense Now,” http://www.survivalring.org/cd-
targets.php
Starting in the fifties, when AND to force our leadership to capitulate.
Ensures a US countervalue retaliation targeting cities

Edward Corcoran, Senior Fellow on national security issues at GlobalSecurity, 11-29-2005, “Strategic nuclear
Weapons and Deterrence,” Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/sndeterrence.htm
The presence of highly survivable mobile AND potential for disaster from faulty warnings.
Nuclear retaliation would cause nuclear winter – prefer our studies

Alan Robock, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Dep. of Env. Sciences @ Rutgers, April 2007, “Nuclear Winter
Revisited,” J. of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~gera/nwinter/nw6accepted.pdf
As first suggested by Crutzen and AND can still produce a nuclear winter.
City attacks are the key internal link to nuclear winter – Prefer our evidence, it cites peer-reviewed consensus and their
authors are part of a smear campaign by the nuclear establishment
Steven Starr, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and Moscow Inst. Of Physics, 2009, “Catastrophic Climatic Consequences
of Nuclear Conflict,” Int’l Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation, http://inesap.org/node/11
Nuclear detonations within urban and industrial AND been strengthened by the latest studies.
We shouldn’t retaliate in the face of nuclear attack – it does nothing but kill more people and tangibly raise the risk of
extinction
Daily Kos, 8-31-2009, “Nuclear Fallout,” http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/31/775019/-Nuclear-Fallout:-How-Do-
You-Respond-to-a-Nuclear-Attack
Most people think they know the AND that lesson, should you respond!)
Nuclear winter causes extinction

Carl Sagan, Astrophysicist Prof, 2-8-1985, “Nuclear War and Nuclear Winter,” Commonwealth Club,
http://www.commonwealthclub.org/archive/20thcentury/85-02sagan-speech.html
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Now, if you imagine all AND , how certain are these results?
Public engagement on nuclear issues holds policymakers accountable

Stimson Center, 2001, “Beyond Deterrence,” http://www.stimson.org/n2d2/?sn=n22001110726
Ironically, a full decade out AND policymakers who act with political impunity.
Arcane debates about the SIOP are critical to driving public knowledge of the consequences of nuclear war and
exposing the flawed methodology of nuclear war planners
Bret Lortie, managing editor of the BAS, July/August 2001, “A Do-It-Yourself SIOP,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, v.
57, no. 4, http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/u336438840l60828/fulltext.pdf
The impact on policy-makers AND chisels at its ‘sacred’ nature.”
( ) The technicality of our discussion over the SIOP is key to breaking down the veil of secrecy over US nuclear policy
Bret Lortie, managing editor of the BAS, July/August 2001, “A Do-It-Yourself SIOP,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, v.
57, no. 4, http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/u336438840l60828/fulltext.pdf
Cochran believes the interactivity of their AND see if the other side matches.”
Ending targeting of Russia stops enemy creation and technostrategizing

Matthew G. McKinzie, et al, 2001, “The US Nuclear War Plan,” NRDC,
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/warplan/warplan_start.pdf#search=%22the%20us%20nuclear%20war%20plan%3a%20a
%20time%20for%20a%20change%2c%22
2. Clarify the U.AND forces and plans for their use.
( ) Realizing the limits to deterrence is a radical departure from the Cold War mindset that allows for the consideration
of localities within the nuclear paradigm
Dr. Keith B. Payne, President, National Institute for Public Policy, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
for Forces Policy, December 2003 “Deterrence: A New Paradigm” http://www.nipp.org/National%20Institute
%20Press/Archives/Publication%20Archive%20PDF/Deterrence%20Paradigm.pdf
First, we should immediately AND will or will not be stable.
Discussions about nuclear deterrence require dependence on uncertain predictions

Michael Ruhle, Policy Planning Unit, NATO Political Affairs Division, 1-1-09, “NATO and Extended Deterrence in a
Multinuclear World”. Comparative Strategy, An International Journal, vol 24 – n.2,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01495930802679686
To a considerable extent, questions AND important to separate facts from fiction.
Discussions about nuclear deterrence require dependence on uncertain predictions

Michael Ruhle, Policy Planning Unit, NATO Political Affairs Division, 1-1-09, “NATO and Extended Deterrence in a
Multinuclear World”. Comparative Strategy, An International Journal, vol 24 – n.2,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01495930802679686
To a considerable extent, questions AND important to separate facts from fiction.
( ) We must use the institutions that exercise power to change them

Lawrence Grossburg, University of Illinois, We Gotta Get Outta This Place, 1992, p. 391-393
The Left needs institutions which can AND organize minorities into a new majority.
Disengagement from traditional politics is the worst in cynical leftist garbage – our hypothesizing about the complex
inner-working of government is key to creating space for the critique
David E. McClean, 2001, “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope,” Am. Phil. Conf., www.american-
philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm
Yet for some reason, at AND so-called "managerial class."
Attempting to change the world is crucial to celebrating life. Refusing to try denies our own lives while condemning
others to unnecessary suffering*
Todd May, prof @ Clemson. “To change the world, to celebrate life,” Philosophy & Social Criticism 2005 Vol 31 nos 5–
6 pp. 517–531
To change the world and to AND take your world up for you.
( ) Relying on individual-level strategies fails and guarantees global politics is dominated by violence
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George Monbiot, journalist, academic, and political and environmental activist, 2004, Manifesto for a New World Order,
p. 11-13
The quest for global solutions is AND conditions it requires for its survival.
Fiat is good – key to educational strategy and real world change

Paul Streeten, Econ prof @ Boston, 1999, Development, v. 42, n. 2, p 118
First, Utopian thinking can be AND want to preserve the status quo.
( ) Death outweighs all their impacts – it’s the only impact you can’t recover from
Zygmunt Bauman, University Of Leeds Professor Emeritus Of Sociology, Life In Fragments: Essays In Postmodern
Morality, 95, p. 66-71.
The being-for is like AND too, dissolves straightaway into potentialities'.
( ) We don’t need to win our epistemology is perfect – but it’s better to try and understand the world through flawed
empiricism than just give up on all meaning – it’s key to persuading audiences
Rudra Sil, assistant professor of Political Science at University of Pennsylvania. “Against Epistemological Absolutism:
Toward a “Pragmatic” Center,” in Beyond Boundaries ed Sil and Eileen M. Doherty 2000 p160-161
An even stronger case is made AND but the most extreme epistemological positions.
Ontology / Epistemology is not a prerequisite to the affirmative

David Owen, University of Southampton, July 2002, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism,
and Practical Reasoning,” Millennium – Journal of International Studies, 31.3, p. 655-656
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ AND even necessarily the most important kind.
( ) Rejecting the aff forecloses an epistemic middle ground that allows designing effective political responses – they
undermine the possibility of interdisciplinary knowledge
Rudra Sil, assistant professor of Political Science at University of Pennsylvania. “Against Epistemological Absolutism:
Toward a “Pragmatic” Center,” in Beyond Boundaries ed Sil and Eileen M. Doherty 2000 p164-166
These categories along the “epistemological AND the basis of different foundational assumptions.
( ) Critique fails without a specific policy goal

Stephen Eric Bronner, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University, 2004, Reclaiming the Enlightenment:
Toward a Politics of Radical Engagement, p. 124-25
But the battles between the supporters AND vulgarity of the life they live.
They can’t dispute this claim – Nietzsche's beliefs about how to value life aren’t meant to refute other people's
opinions. Everyone should affirm life with their own perspective
Lawrence Hatab. A Nietzschean defense of democracy, 1995 p152-3
Nietzsche is willing to offer judgments AND . (Z 111,11)
The United States federal government should not authorize nuclear retaliation targeting cities in the event of a nuclear
strike on the United States by the Russian Federation.
US counterforce capabilities make Russian nuclear strikes on the US inevitable – escalation is uncontrollable
Benjamin Schwarz, national editor of The Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2006, “The Perils of Primacy,” The Atlantic,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/primacy
Today, however, one countryAND for scrutiny and debate to begin.
( ) Full-scale accidental launch inevitable – EWS failures

Bruce G. Blair et al, Ph.D. in operations research, president of the World Security Institute, and former visiting
professor at Yale and Princeton, 2008, “Toward True Security: Ten Steps The Next President Should Take To
Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” http://www.fas.org/press/_docs/Toward%20True%20Security
%202008%20.pdf
While Russia retains the ability to AND could be fooled by false alarms.
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Obama’s status quo cuts will wreck deterrence and cause a Russian first strike
Stuart Koehl, 9-24-2009, “Destabilization and Disarmament,” Weekly Standard,
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/993kkohs.asp?pg=2
On the other hand, Obama AND of automated command and control systems.
Russian first strike inevitable – they’re under use it or lose it pressure and accident risk is high
Carol Giacomo, 5-22-2003, “Experts Fear U.S.-Russia Nuclear ‘Miscalculation’,” Common Dreams,
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0522-03.htm
More than a decade after the AND based on incorrect or incomplete information.
Russia is planning a first strike on the US – they view nuclear war as winnable
TLDM, 6-19-2009, “Nuclear First Strike,” These Last Days Ministries, http://www.tldm.org/news2/first_strike.htm
Many Americans are of the opinion AND such a war.” [v]
Russian strikes would be designed for counterforce disarming – wouldn’t hit population centers
Richard Fleetwood, founder of SurvivalRing, 9-27-2009, “Civil Defense Now,” http://www.survivalring.org/cd-
targets.php
Starting in the fifties, when AND to force our leadership to capitulate.
But, the Russian first strike would fail – subs are survivable
Aby the Liberal, 8-27-2007, “The Future of Nuclear Deterrence,” http://www.abytheliberal.com/world-politics/the-future-
of-nuclear-deterrence-between-us-and-russia
This is the primary fail-AND in case of a failed attempt.
Ensures a US countervalue retaliation targeting cities

Edward Corcoran, Senior Fellow on national security issues at GlobalSecurity, 11-29-2005, “Strategic nuclear
Weapons and Deterrence,” Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/sndeterrence.htm
The presence of highly survivable mobile AND potential for disaster from faulty warnings.
Nuclear retaliation would cause nuclear winter – prefer our studies

Alan Robock, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Dep. of Env. Sciences @ Rutgers, April 2007, “Nuclear Winter
Revisited,” J. of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~gera/nwinter/nw6accepted.pdf
As first suggested by Crutzen and AND can still produce a nuclear winter.
Targeting matters – the amount of smoke produced is directly related to whether we hit cities
Alan Robock, climatology prof @ Rutgers, 2009, “Nuclear Winter,” Earth Portal, http://www.earthportal.org/?p=1481
A nuclear explosion is like bringing AND of smoke could still be produced.
City attacks are the key internal link to nuclear winter – Prefer our evidence, it cites peer-reviewed consensus and their
authors are part of a smear campaign by the nuclear establishment
Steven Starr, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and Moscow Inst. Of Physics, 2009, “Catastrophic Climatic Consequences
of Nuclear Conflict,” Int’l Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation, http://inesap.org/node/11
Nuclear detonations within urban and industrial AND been strengthened by the latest studies.
We shouldn’t retaliate in the face of nuclear attack – it does nothing but kill more people and tangibly raise the risk of
extinction
Daily Kos, 8-31-2009, “Nuclear Fallout,” http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/31/775019/-Nuclear-Fallout:-How-Do-
You-Respond-to-a-Nuclear-Attack
Most people think they know the AND that lesson, should you respond!)
Nuclear winter causes extinction

Carl Sagan, Astrophysicist Prof, 2-8-1985, “Nuclear War and Nuclear Winter,” Commonwealth Club,
http://www.commonwealthclub.org/archive/20thcentury/85-02sagan-speech.html
Now, if you imagine all AND , how certain are these results?
( ) Full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and Russia is the only existential risk
Nick Bostrom, PhD Faculty of Philosophy, Oxford University, 2002 “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction
Scenarios and Related Hazards” Published in the Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002
http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html
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Risks in this sixth category are AND future benefits [15,16].
The risk of extinction through nuclear war outweighs everything

Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth, 1982, p. 93-96
To say that human extinction is AND race—shall cease to be.
Prefer our impacts – even a tiny risk of extinction outweighs everything else
Jason Matheny, Ph.D. student in Agricultural Policy at the University of Maryland and a researcher at the Bloomberg
School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, Director, New Harvest, October, 2006, Reducing the risk of
human extinction
We may be poorly equipped to AND only a fraction of a second.
Plan doesn’t prohibit all retaliation, it just restricts it – we could still target infrastructure
Hans M. Kristensen, dir. Nuclear Information Project, Robert S. Norris, senior research associate with NRDC, and Ivan
Oelrich, VP for Strategic Security Programs at FAS, April 2009, “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence,”
Federation of American Scientists, Occasional Paper No. 7,
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf
We believe that there are no AND or its allies with nuclear weapons.
( ) Moral imperative not to respond – comparatively better to submit

Douglas P. Lackey, 1984, Moral Principles and Nuclear Weapons, p. 92-3
Suppose that the United States suffers AND not usually regarded as an appeaser.
Retaliatory strike is genocide – there’s literally no point other than mass murder
Ron Rosenbaum, author, 1-9-2009, “The Letter of Last Resort,” Slate, http://www.slate.com/id/2208219/
And it seems stunningly foolish, AND , genocide pure if not simple.
Genocide is a decision rule – it makes both life and death meaningless

Claudia Card, Philosophy Prof @ U of Wisconsin-Madison. "Genocide and Social Death," Hypatia, Vol.18, Iss. 1 2003
Yet such atrocities, it may AND view, however, is controversial.

China Advantage
( ) US maintenance of counterforce options against China undermines crisis stability and makes nuclear war inevitable
– spurs them to adopt risky nuclear posture
Benjamin Schwarz, literary editor and the national editor of The Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2006, “The Perils of Primacy,” The
Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/primacy
To be sure, America's emerging AND and in America's nuclear-war plans
the overwhelming number of targets remain AND could lead to inadvertent nuclear war.
Counterforce is also the driver for Chinese nuclear modernization – US posture changes can reverse this trend
The U.S. Intelligence AND stated repeatedly by the Pentagon.27
Chinese nuclear modernization causes an arms race – ensures miscalc and escalation
Christopher P. Twomey, Prof @ Naval Postgrad, Jan/Feb 2009, “Chinese-U.S. Strategic Affairs,” Arms Control
Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_01-02/china_us_dangerous_dynamism
China and the United States are AND reciprocal responses have the potential to move
toward a tightly coupled arms race AND undermine stability in an intense crisis.
In particular, US counterforce drives China to increase reliance on survivable systems like subs – increases the risk of
accidental war
Marko Beljac, PhD Monash, 4-1-2008, “Arms Race In Space,” Foreign Policy In Focus, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5113
The noted space and missile analyst AND likelihood of an accidental nuclear exchange.
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Development of survivable systems makes crisis escalation inevitable

Jeffrey Lewis, Dir. of Nuclear Strategy @ New America Foundation, July 2009, “Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force
Modernization,” Nonproliferation Review, v. 16, iss. 2, informa
Both of these views emphasize the AND -21 and DF-21As?
Nuclear sub modernization causes accidents and escalation during a crisis – US would engage in aggressive anti-sub
warfare
Michael Glosny, Fellow @ Harvard Institute for Strategic Studies, and Jeffery Lewis, dir. @ NAF, 1-9-2008, “China’s
Boomers,” FNS, ln
MR. GLOSNY: Okay, AND it. And I'll just stop.
Lack of sufficient C2 supercharges our args – increased Chinese reliance on survivable platforms increases the risk of
accidental war
Michael S. Chase, Andrew S. Erickson, and Christopher Yeaw, Profs @ Naval War College, February 2009, “Chinese
Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization,” Journal of Strategic Studies, v. 32, iss. 1, p. informa
Fourth, the transition to landAND extremely unstable situation in a crisis.
Link only goes one way – primacy adds nothing to US coercive power, but it negatively impacts escalatory stability
Li Bin, Dir. Arms Control and Prof @ Tsinghua, 2006, “Paper Tiger with Whitened Teeth,” China Security, Iss. 4,
http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=213&Itemid=8&lang=zh
Lieber and Press seem to suggest AND the Cold War’s worst nightmare scenarios.
( ) China is willing to use nuclear weapons over Taiwan, but it’s not inevitable – moderating the potential for accidents
and miscalc is the key internal link to stopping nuclear war
Brad Roberts, PhD, Inst. For Defense Analysis, Ashley J. Tellis, senior associate @ Carnegie, and Michael Swaine,
China expert @ Carnegie, 1-26-2005, “The Nuclear Dimension of a Taiwan Crisis,” Carnegie Endowment,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetail&id=740
Dr. Roberts began his presentation AND States, on this important subject.
US perception of nuclear primacy means we’d try a disarming first strike in a crisis – even though we’re wrong about
China’s capabilities
Baohui Zhang, Lingnan University, Summer 2007, “The Modernization of Chinese Nuclear Forces and Its Impact on
Sino-U.S. Relations,” Asian Affairs: An American Review, 34.2, p. 89
I disagree with Lieber and Press’s AND . strike on Beijing’s arsenal.”7
US first strike on China would fail – their second strike is already survivable and would kill millions
Aby The Liberal, 7-14-2007, “China’s MAD Nuclear Deterrence Against USA,” http://www.abytheliberal.com/world-
politics/chinas-mad-nuclear-deterrance-usa
China’s nuclear force is based on AND nuclear weapons stockpile and delivery systems.
Also shatters the nuclear taboo – makes global use of nuclear weapons inevitable
T.V. Paul, IR Prof @ Mcgill, 2009, The Tradition of Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons, p. amazon
Emulation Risk States tend to emulate AND area of nuclear use as well.
( ) US-China escalation causes extinction

Straits Times (Singapore), June 25, 2000, No one gains in war over Taiwan
THE high-intensity scenario postulates AND would see the destruction of civilisation.
Most probable impact

Columbia University Press, 2005, “Dangerous Strait,” http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-13564-1/dangerous-
strait
Today the most dangerous place on AND in which catastrophe can be avoided.
Our miscalc scenarios are unique – tense conflicts with China are inevitable
Robert Kagan, PhD American, 2009, “Ambition and Anxiety,” in The Rise Of China, ed. Schmitt, p. 2-3
The struggle between China and the AND to take no for an answer.
Taiwan crisis is inevitable

China Opinion, 8-21-2009, “America’s Coming War with China,” http://chinaopinion.com/2009/08/americas-coming-
war-with-china-a-collision-course-over-taiwan-introduction/
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The trade deficit, China’s proliferation AND is not reunification but formal separation.
NFU to China solves miscalc and Chinese modernization – sparks cooperative negotiations that stop accidents
Jeffrey Lewis, Dir. of Nuclear Strategy @ New America Foundation, April 2009, “Chinese Nuclear Posture,” Occasional
Paper No. 15, Center for Nonprolif Studies,
http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/98894/ichaptersection_singledocument/BC5FFEA7-2859-4C5B-
992B-7597CBFA85FB/en/Chapter+3.pdf#search=%22accidents%2c%20miscalculations%2c%20or
%20misunderstandings.%22
China’s strategic modernization continues to be AND accidents, miscalculations, or misunderstandings.
US NFU pledge to China stops the arms race

Bonnie Glaser, senior fellow @ CSIS, 6-10-2008, “Conference on US-China Strategic Nuclear Dynamics,”
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081015_intro_and_key_findings.pdf#search=%22china%e2%80%99s%20expert
%20community%20clearly%20views%20the%20source%20of%20instability%20in%20the%22
China’s expert community clearly views the AND ways that serve shared political objectives.
NORTH KOREA ADVANTAGE

Current North Korea negotiations will fail – too focused on sanctions
AP, 9-28-2009, “North Korea warns against sanctions,”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jWiDtOO-M7FQqUWzFFuj9bsF6AFAD9B0LIRG0
UNITED NATIONS — North Korea says AND punitive U.N. measures.
US maintenance of first strike options against North Korea drives perception of vulnerability, encouraging acquisition
and undermining crisis stability
David McDonough, April 2006, “The US Nuclear Shift to the Pacific,” RUSI Journal, pq
The American deployment of sophisticated counterAND already fraught with instability and distrust.
North Korean crisis escalates to extinction – gender modified.

Kim Myong Choi, Exec. Dir. of Center for Korean-American Peace, 10-24-2002, “Agreed framework is brain dead,”
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html#sect2
The second choice is for the AND a second-class nuclear power.
Removing nuclear threats are the key internal link to denuclearization – NFU sparks diplomatic progress
Yoo Jee-ho, staff writer, 9-30-2009, “North says nuclear negotiation ball in U.S. court,” Joong Ang Daily,
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2910728
North Korea has thrown the ball AND DPRK will go,” he said.
Even without denuclearization, diplomatic progress lessens the dangers of regime collapse
Paul Stares, senior fellow @ CFR, and Joel Wit, senior fellow @ Weatherhead East Asia, January 2009, “Preparing for
Establishing broader contacts with Pyongyang during AND programs—would have similar benefits.
( ) North Korea is on the brink of regime collapse – despite outward signs of strength
However, other scenarios that bring AND state might finally come to pass.
North Korean regime collapse causes superpower conflict

These various scenarios would present the AND unlikely. Beijing, however, would
...
certainly look on any attempt AND and American intervention in the North.
AT: CMR DISAD
Heg is dominant—there are no challengers
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G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University.
America Abroad. Weary Titan or Poorly Led Superpower? 9/5/05.
http://houseoflabor.tpmcafe.com/story/2005/9/5/135627/8001. accessed 9/11/05
If America is overstretched, it AND terms and its rivals further behind.
US heg is not going anywhere—expect it for at least another century

Financial Times, 2/17, 2006 The American century shows no sign of ending MICHAEL LIND P.L
The rise and fall of great AND so for another century or more.
Disputes over RRW puts Obama and Gates at odds.

Mark Tompson, 1-26-2009, “Obama's Showdown Over Nukes”, Times,
“http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1873887,00.html”
The latest U.S. AND and Obama have discussed the matter.
CMR doomed – Afghanistan, budget, DADT, restructuring

Will King, defense analyst, 3-27-2009 “Panel discusses civil-military relations at Fort Leavenworth,”
http://www.army.mil/-news/2009/03/27/18852-panel-discusses-civil-military-relations-at-fort-leavenworth/
"The president has arranged it AND most problems of those four areas.
No link – military thinks nuclear weapons are useless.

Clark A Murdock. a senior adviser in the CSIS International Security Program, March 2008, “The Department of
Defense and the Nuclear Missions in the 21st Century”, “http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080305-murdock-
nuclearmission.pdf”
During the Cold War, a AND a U.S. president).
AT: POLITICS
Health care won’t pass

Mark Silva, Staff Writer LA Times, 9-21-2009, “Obama touts health plan in TV blitz,” Lexis.
Republicans are not the only ones AND pass a bill that includes one.
No capital now
CNN, 9-22, ln
ROBERTS: And Robin, last AND will be over really this week.
Health care reform would immediately reduce Army recruitment

Floyd Norris, comments on finance and economics for the New York Times, 5-30-2008, “Health’s Gain May Be Army’s
Loss,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/30/business/30norris.html?
ei=5124&en=48a84acfacec6f7c&ex=1369886400&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&pagewanted=print
Call it the law of unintended consequences. When you fix one thing, it messes up other things.
If the Democrats win the election AND but that is what could happen.
Kills heg
William Perry, Madeleine Albright, Sandy Berger, and John Shalikashvili, January 2006, The National Security
Advisory Group, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/us-military_nsag-report_01252006.pdf
If recruiting trends do not improve AND conditions on the ground may be.
NW
Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND, Washington Quarterly, Spring, 1995
Under the third option, the AND a multipolar balance of power system.
No warming impact that they can solve

Bjarn Lomborg, director of the AND Carbon cuts won’t work,” Lexis.
The careful work of mainstream climate AND .22 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Health care passage blocks it

Christopher Beam, Staff writer for slate magazine, 8-28-2009, “Hot in here,” Lexis.
But as the health care debate AND care-could be Obama's Waterloo.
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Obama’s pushing banking reforms not cap and trade

The Hotline, 9-17, ln
The "climate bill is not AND , Time, 9/16).
Obama’s reforms kill innovation

Forbes, 7-13-2009, “Largely Useless, Even Harmful,” ln
What about Obama's proposals themselves? AND other financial services to their customers.
Innovation is key to economic resiliency

China Daily, 4-6-2009, “Innovation is best way out of financial crisis,”
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-04/06/content_7651289.htm
The world's development history tells us AND need an indiscriminate expansive financial policy.
Extinction
Phil Kerpen, National Review Online, October 29, 2008, Don't Turn Panic Into Depression,
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/29/opinion/main4555821.shtml
It’s important that we avoid all AND conflicts on an even greater scale.
AT: JAPAN REARM
East Asian prolif is inevitable – Chinese modernization drives threat perceptions

Thomas E. Doyle, Department of Political Science at the University of California, 2009, “The moral implications fo the
subversion of the Nonproliferation Treaty regime,” Ethics and Global Politics, 2.2
A second fundamental change arises from AND facto dissolution of the NPT regime.
Chinese Modernization = Japanese Rearm

Phillip C. Saunders and Jing-dong Yuan Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies,
07-2000, “China’s Strategic Force Modernization: Issues and Implications,” Discussion Paper Prepared for the
Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group, http://www.emergingfromconflict.org/readings/saunders.pdf
Any significant expansion of China’s nuclear AND S. presence in Northeast Asia.
( ) Japan won’t rearm in response to the plan – your evidence assumes the LDP
Lawrence Wittner, professor of history at SUNY-Albany, 9-4-2009, “Japan’s Election and Anti-Nuclear Momentum,”
FPIF, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6401
Although the smashing victory of the AND apparently utopian vision to pragmatic politics.
First-use is totally unnecessary for deterrence – our conventional forces are super badass and their evidence is based
on rhetoric, not analysis
Andy Butfoy, senior lecturer in IR at Monash, October 2008, “Washington’s Apparent Readiness To Start Nuclear
War,” Survival, v. 50, iss. 5, p. informa
Many critics believe that the firstAND by Japan and others, as if
the threat of first use is AND there is for the link.49
No Asian arms race – cost, history, and unstrategic

James Manicom, Ph.D. student, and Andrew O’Neil, Associate Professor of International Relations at Flinders
University, 8-26-2009, “Sino-Japanese strategic relations: will rivalry lead to confrontation?” Australian Journal of
International Affairs, 63.2, p. 224-225
The first claim concerning the likelihood AND judged as highly credible in Tokyo.
Japan won’t go nuclear – no capability

Matake Kamiya, Winter 2002, W.Q., “Nuclear Japan, p ln
Those who emphasize the potential for AND the technological hurdles without international assistance.
1AC - Condition CP Bad

( ) Resolution says “should,” not “shall” – means it’s not unconditional
Atlas Collaboration, 1999, “Use of shall, should, may can,” http://rd13doc.cern.ch/Atlas/DaqSoft/sde/inspect/shall.html
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shall 'shall' describes something that is AND nothing of defining what 'thoroughly' means).
( ) Should means “ought to” – we only have to defend the desirability of the plan, not its certainty
American Heritage, 2009, “should,” http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/should
Like the rules governing the use AND at if, rather, shall.
1AC - Cuts Now
( ) Obama makes cuts and reduced role of nuclear weapons inevitable

Investor Business Daily, 9-20-2008, http://www.brookesnews.com/080906obamamilitary.html
Defense Policy: In the middle AND and now Russia's aggressive military buildup.
1AC - Advantage
( ) US maintenance of counterforce options against China undermines crisis stability and makes nuclear war inevitable
– spurs them to adopt risky nuclear posture
Benjamin Schwarz, literary editor and the national editor of The Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2006, “The Perils of Primacy,” The
Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/primacy
To be sure, America's emerging AND and in America's nuclear-war plans
the overwhelming number of targets remain AND could lead to inadvertent nuclear war.
Counterforce is also the driver for Chinese nuclear modernization – US posture changes can reverse this trend
The U.S. Intelligence AND stated repeatedly by the Pentagon.27
Chinese nuclear modernization causes an arms race – ensures miscalc and escalation
Christopher P. Twomey, Prof @ Naval Postgrad, Jan/Feb 2009, “Chinese-U.S. Strategic Affairs,” Arms Control
Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_01-02/china_us_dangerous_dynamism
China and the United States are AND reciprocal responses have the potential to move
toward a tightly coupled arms race AND undermine stability in an intense crisis.
In particular, US counterforce drives China to increase reliance on survivable systems like subs – increases the risk of
accidental war
Marko Beljac, PhD Monash, 4-1-2008, “Arms Race In Space,” Foreign Policy In Focus, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5113
The noted space and missile analyst AND likelihood of an accidental nuclear exchange.
Development of survivable systems makes crisis escalation inevitable

Jeffrey Lewis, Dir. of Nuclear Strategy @ New America Foundation, July 2009, “Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force
Modernization,” Nonproliferation Review, v. 16, iss. 2, informa
Both of these views emphasize the AND -21 and DF-21As?
Nuclear sub modernization causes accidents and escalation during a crisis – US would engage in aggressive anti-sub
warfare
Michael Glosny, Fellow @ Harvard Institute for Strategic Studies, and Jeffery Lewis, dir. @ NAF, 1-9-2008, “China’s
Boomers,” FNS, ln
MR. GLOSNY: Okay, AND it. And I'll just stop.
Lack of sufficient C2 supercharges our args – increased Chinese reliance on survivable platforms increases the risk of
accidental war
Michael S. Chase, Andrew S. Erickson, and Christopher Yeaw, Profs @ Naval War College, February 2009, “Chinese
Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization,” Journal of Strategic Studies, v. 32, iss. 1, p. informa
Fourth, the transition to landAND extremely unstable situation in a crisis.
Link only goes one way – primacy adds nothing to US coercive power, but it negatively impacts escalatory stability
Li Bin, Dir. Arms Control and Prof @ Tsinghua, 2006, “Paper Tiger with Whitened Teeth,” China Security, Iss. 4,
http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=213&Itemid=8&lang=zh
Lieber and Press seem to suggest AND the Cold War’s worst nightmare scenarios.
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( ) China is willing to use nuclear weapons over Taiwan, but it’s not inevitable – moderating the potential for accidents
and miscalc is the key internal link to stopping nuclear war
Brad Roberts, PhD, Inst. For Defense Analysis, Ashley J. Tellis, senior associate @ Carnegie, and Michael Swaine,
China expert @ Carnegie, 1-26-2005, “The Nuclear Dimension of a Taiwan Crisis,” Carnegie Endowment,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetail&id=740
Dr. Roberts began his presentation AND States, on this important subject.
US perception of nuclear primacy means we’d try a disarming first strike in a crisis – even though we’re wrong about
China’s capabilities
Baohui Zhang, Lingnan University, Summer 2007, “The Modernization of Chinese Nuclear Forces and Its Impact on
Sino-U.S. Relations,” Asian Affairs: An American Review, 34.2, p. 89
I disagree with Lieber and Press’s AND . strike on Beijing’s arsenal.”7
US first strike on China would fail – their second strike is already survivable and would kill millions
Aby The Liberal, 7-14-2007, “China’s MAD Nuclear Deterrence Against USA,” http://www.abytheliberal.com/world-
politics/chinas-mad-nuclear-deterrance-usa
China’s nuclear force is based on AND nuclear weapons stockpile and delivery systems.
Also shatters the nuclear taboo – makes global use of nuclear weapons inevitable
( ) US-China escalation causes extinction

Most probable impact

Columbia University Press, 2005, “Dangerous Strait,” http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-13564-1/dangerous-
strait
Today the most dangerous place on AND in which catastrophe can be avoided.
Our miscalc scenarios are unique – tense conflicts with China are inevitable
Robert Kagan, PhD American, 2009, “Ambition and Anxiety,” in The Rise Of China, ed. Schmitt, p. 2-3
The struggle between China and the AND to take no for an answer.
Taiwan crisis is inevitable

China Opinion, 8-21-2009, “America’s Coming War with China,” http://chinaopinion.com/2009/08/americas-coming-
war-with-china-a-collision-course-over-taiwan-introduction/
The trade deficit, China’s proliferation AND is not reunification but formal separation.
NFU to China solves miscalc and Chinese modernization – sparks cooperative negotiations that stop accidents
Jeffrey Lewis, Dir. of Nuclear Strategy @ New America Foundation, April 2009, “Chinese Nuclear Posture,” Occasional
Paper No. 15, Center for Nonprolif Studies,
http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/98894/ichaptersection_singledocument/BC5FFEA7-2859-4C5B-
992B-7597CBFA85FB/en/Chapter+3.pdf#search=%22accidents%2c%20miscalculations%2c%20or
%20misunderstandings.%22
China’s strategic modernization continues to be AND accidents, miscalculations, or misunderstandings.
US NFU pledge to China stops the arms race

Bonnie Glaser, senior fellow @ CSIS, 6-10-2008, “Conference on US-China Strategic Nuclear Dynamics,”
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081015_intro_and_key_findings.pdf#search=%22china%e2%80%99s%20expert
%20community%20clearly%20views%20the%20source%20of%20instability%20in%20the%22
China’s expert community clearly views the AND ways that serve shared political objectives.
Relying on individual-level strategies fails and guarantees global politics is dominated by violence
George Monbiot, journalist, academic, and political and environmental activist, 2004, Manifesto for a New World Order,
p. 11-13
The quest for global solutions is AND conditions it requires for its survival.
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Too late to prevent global warming – CO2 cuts aren’t enough

Times Online, 5-23-2008, “Copenhagen Consensus: global warming,”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3992368.ece
There is unequivocal evidence that humans AND enough to make the investment worthwhile.
( ) No terminal impact, even in extreme scenarios

CNN, “Draft of climate report maps out ‘highway to extinction’, 4/1/07,
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/04/01/climate.report.ap/index.html
While humanity will survive, hundreds AND because we can't be that stupid."
2AC - Topicality Missions
We meet – First striking China is a mission

Carl Osgood, 6-29-2007, “Missile Defense,” Executive Intelligence Review,
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3426abm_cheney.html
When the Bush Administration took officeAND of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
We meet role
Scott D. Sagan, Poly Sci Prof @ Stanford Jun/Jul 2009, Survival, v. 51, no. 3, informa
In his 5 April 2009 speech AND and largescale conventional military force'.3
Counter-interp
a) Restrict means to confine, not eliminate
Collins English Dictionary, 2008, “restrict,” http://www.wordia.com/restrict
1) verb, to confine AND certain often specified limits or selected bounds
b) First striking China is a mission

Ivan Oelrich, Director of the FAS Strategic Security Program, January 2005, “Missions for Nuclear Weapons after the
Cold War,” Federation of American Scientists,
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/armscontrol/missionsaftercwrptfull.pdf
Defining Nuclear Missions This study does AND between specific missions and general goals.
Table 2 Nuclear Missions:
1 Survive and fire back after AND homeland (for retaliation/ deterrence)
2 Survive and fire back after AND for retaliation/deterrence/assurance)
3 Survive and fire back after AND homeland (for retaliation/ deterrence)
4 Survive and fire back after AND for assurance/ retaliation/deterrence)
5 Survive and fire back after CBW use in military theater
6 Deploying nuclear weapons to attack AND their development in the first place)
7 Deploying nuclear weapons to attack AND their development in the first place)
8 Damage limitation attacks against nuclear weapons in military theater
9 Damage limitation attacks against CB weapons in military theater
10 Damage limitation attacks against Russian/Chinese central systems
11 Ready to inflict damage after AND (or to deter such attacks)
12 Overawe potential rivals
13 Provide virtual power
14 Fight regional wars
15 Apply shock to terminate a regional conventional war
c) Restricting a mission means to limit the available range of strike options

Major Dawn R. Eflein, Chief, Foreign Litigation, HQ United States Air Forces in Europe, Graduate of the Judge
Advocate General’s School, 1998, 44 A.F. L. Rev. 33, ln
One of the primary tools that AND on achieving his military objective. 24
2AC - Case
Maintenance of US counterforce options against China make war inevitable – drives rapid modernization and crisis
instability. Chinese actions in a crisis will prompt a first strike
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Keir A. Lieber, Poly Sci Prof @ Notre Dame, and Daryl G. Press, Government Prof @ Dartmouth and military
consultant for the DOD, August 2007, “Superiority Complex,” The Atlantic,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200707/china-nukes
But America’s growing counterforce strength is AND a U.S. escalation.
Growing US counterforce primacy over China undermines deterrence stability – encourages the US to first strike
Keir A. Lieber, Poly Sci Prof @ Notre Dame, and Daryl G. Press, Government Prof @ Dartmouth and military
consultant for the DOD, August 2007, “Superiority Complex,” The Atlantic,
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200707/china-nukes
In the coming years, as AND and offensive nuclear-strike systems.
Chinese nationalism is a compensatory mechanism for US capabilities

Andrew Scobell, Prof @ Texas A&M, Summer 2009, “Is There a Civil-Military Gap,” Parameters, v. 39, no. 2,
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/09summer/scobell.pdf
Because of the enormous imbalance in AND nor shed blood for independence.”26
2AC - CP
US NFU pledge solves US-China relations – confidence building and PLA

Jing-dong Yuan, April 2009, “China and the Nuclear-Free World,” Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear
Disarmament, Monterey Institute of International Studies, p. 35-36
China’s support of an FMCT and AND and the United States. 56.
Counterplan breaks court deference
David M. Ebel, federal appeals judge who has served on the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, 7-
22-2009, “Order and Judgment,” http://ca10.washburnlaw.edu/cases/2003/07/02-2311.htm
The presence of several of the AND a non-justiciable political question.
Deference is essential to military readiness

Kelly Henriksen, attorney, Administrative AND . Am. U. 1273)
B. The Military as a AND these complexities. n34 [*1280]
Readiness is key to heg

Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies at The Heritage Foundation 9/15/00, Heritage Foundation Reports
Military readiness is vital because declines AND national interest, thereby preserving peace.
The executive will ignore judicial attempts to limit its warmaking authority—no solvency
Peter J. Spiro, Associate Professor of Law, Hofstra University, December 1993, New York University Law Review
Judicial intervention would be to similar AND , in the war powers context.
Court action doesn’t shield

Lindsay Harrison, Lecturer in Law, University of Miami Law School and Stephen I. Vladeck, Associate Professor of
Law at the University Of Miami School Of Law, is a national expert in national security law and the Detention Power.,
Does the Court Act as "Political Cover" for the Other Branches? November 18, 2005 legaldebate.blogspot.com
While the Supreme Court may have AND received the attention of the public.
2AC - Politics
Obama needs a win to rebuild momentum for his agenda – its key to health care – the plan qualifies
Dan Balz, Washing Post Writer, 9-2, “After a Bruising August, Time for Obama Team to Regroup,” ln
Former Senate majority leader Bob Dole AND State Clinton gave to the Russians?
( ) Winners Win
Jonathan Singer, J.D. University of California @ Berkeley and editor of MyDD, 3-3-2009, “By Expending Capital,
Obama Grows His Capital,” MyDD, http://mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428
"What is amazing here is AND to ending the war in Iraq.
( ) Battles on new issues fracture republican opposition, which consolidates Obama’s broad advantage
Jonathan Cohn, editor of The Treatment, 3-11-2009, “The Case for Presidential Multi-Tasking,” The Treatment (The
New Republic’s Health Care blog), http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_treatment/archive/2009/03/11/the-case-for-
presidential-multi-tasking.aspx
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Meanwhile, Obama's multi-faceted AND while building up huge congressional majorities.
No capital now
CNN, 9-22, ln
ROBERTS: And Robin, last AND will be over really this week.
Bipartisan support for the plan

Kingston Reif, Deputy Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation @ the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 6-9-
2009, “Two Cents: Nukes remain top security issue,” Deming Headlight, ln
But don't just take President Obama's AND continued reduction in the nuclear arsenal."
( ) Obama not pushing surge

David Alexander, Staff writer for Reuters, 9-21-2009, “McChrystal Report hits Obama with tough choices in
Afghanistan,” http://blogs.reuters.com/frontrow/2009/09/21/mcchrystal-report-hits-obama-with-tough-choices-in-
afghanistan/
The report comes at a difficult AND asking hard questions about deploying troops.”
India-Pakistan nuclear war doesn’t escalate

The Hamilton Spectator, 5/24/2002
For those who do not live AND and they are mostly still here.
South Asian war won’t escalate

Business Today, February 3, 2002
Will a full-blown war end in a nuclear scenario? K. Santhanam, the director of IDSA, believes that both countries will be
reluctant to exercise the nuclear option. ''In the last three wars, both India and Pakistan have restricted their attacks to
the forward areas,'' points out Singh.
Chinese nuclear modernization drives destabilizing Indo-Pak arms competition

Michael Krepon, founder of Stimson Center, 2nd Quarter 2009, “Nuclear Arms and the Future of South Asia,” Joint
Force Quarterly, iss. 53, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/editions/i53/9.pdf#search=%22%27nuclear%20arms
%20and%20the%20future%20of%20south%20asia%22
The accelerating pace of China’s strategic AND against nuclear stabilization on the subcontinent.
2AC - Deterrence
East Asian prolif is inevitable – Chinese modernization drives threat perceptions
Thomas E. Doyle, Department of Political Science at the University of California, 2009, “The moral implications fo the
subversion of the Nonproliferation Treaty regime,” Ethics and Global Politics, 2.2
A second fundamental change arises from AND facto dissolution of the NPT regime.
Chinese Modernization = Japanese Rearm

Phillip C. Saunders and Jing-dong Yuan Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies,
07-2000, “China’s Strategic Force Modernization: Issues and Implications,” Discussion Paper Prepared for the
Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group, http://www.emergingfromconflict.org/readings/saunders.pdf
Any significant expansion of China’s nuclear AND S. presence in Northeast Asia.
( ) Japan won’t rearm in response to the plan – your evidence assumes the LDP
Lawrence Wittner, professor of history at SUNY-Albany, 9-4-2009, “Japan’s Election and Anti-Nuclear Momentum,”
FPIF, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6401
Although the smashing victory of the AND apparently utopian vision to pragmatic politics.
( ) No deterrence now – U.S. primacy increases instability, only the aff solves the DA
Keir Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, and Daryl Press, Associate
Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, Spring 2006, “The End of MAD?,” International Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/is3004_pp007-044_lieberpress.pdf
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For nearly half a century, AND did during the Cold War.10
NFU doesn’t impact extended deterrence – just makes our conventional deterrent more credible and still allows
retaliation
Scott D. Sagan, Poly Sci Prof @ Stanford, June 2009, “The Case for No First Use,” Survival, v. 51, no. 3, p. informa
Concerns about extended deterrence have thus AND diplomatic and non-proliferation benefits.
1AR Cards --
( ) First use by the US causes Russia-China counterbalancing
Brad Roberts, Ph.D. in economics and political science and associate at the Institute for Defense Analysis, September
2002, “Tripolar Stability: The Future of Nuclear Relations Among the United States, Russia, and China”
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA409682&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
Use of nuclear weapons by the AND three to address WMD proliferation risks.
( ) First strike policy to prevent nuclear acquisitions backfire and cause proliferation
Jasen J Castillo, Assistant Professor. Bush School of Government. Texas A&M University, Dec 2003, “Nuclear
Terrorism: Why Deterrence Still Matters” Current History Vol. 102, Iss. 668; pg. 426 ProQuest
Finally, policy makers should not AND from sharing nuclear weapons with terrorists.
Taiwan can’t go nuclear

Lawrence Freedman, Professor at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London, July 2001,
http://www.iss-eu.org/chaillot/chai48e.html#41
Over the years leaders in Taipei AND necessarily complicitous – and indeed duplicitous.
Taiwan won’t go nuclear

John Copper, prof. of international studies at Rhodes College, author of more than 20 books on Taiwan, China, and
Asian Affairs, 2003, Taiwan: Nation-State or Province, Fourth Edition, pg.229
What about Taiwan going nuclear? AND nuclear reason” to attack Taiwan.
US-Australian relations are resilient

William Tow, Dir. Int’l Rel. And Asian Politics Research Unit @ Queensland, 10-22-2003, Courier Mail, p ln
THE American alliance commands primary attention AND generate Australian support for its implementation.
( ) Nuclear weapons aren’t key to extended deterrence or deterring WMD use

Roger Speed and Michael May, December 2003, “Dangerous Doctrine: How New U.S. Nuclear Plans Could Backfire,”
CSIS, CIAO
Would an identifiable regional power initiate AND U.S. war aims.
( ) NFU enhances the credibility of conventional preemptive strikes

The first of three common objections AND a small number of specific scenarios.
Gonzaga Whitman NFU Aff
Plan: The United States Federal Government should prohibit the use of its nuclear weapons against a country or
organization which has not attacked the United States or its allies with nuclear weapons.
1AC Prolif Advantage
( ) NPT collapse is inevitable and will cause rapid proliferation breakout

Robert G. Gard, Lt. General, Chair CACNP, Atlantic Community, 8-25-2009, “Zero Nuclear Weapons,” Center for Arms
Control and Non-Proliferation,
There are ominous signs that the AND and prone to takeover by extremists.
( ) Without a commitment to non-use, proliferation risks deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war
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Robert Pfaltzgraff, Professor of International Security Studies at The Fletcher School @ Tufts, and James Schoff, the
Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA), Feburary 2009, “Updating
U.S. Deterrence Concepts and Operational Planning,” IFPA White Paper, online
Moreover, as suggested above, AND States into a regional nuclear conflict.
A US NFU would strengthen the global norm against nuclear use and help check the impact of proliferation –
declaratory posture is key
MaximsNews, 8-22-2008, “The Stanley Foundation,”
Throughout the Cold War, the AND telling your children not to smoke.”

This is a useful conceptual innovation AND destruction against non-combatants.21
NPT collapse coupled with US willingness to consider first use will crush the nuclear taboo – plan is vital to maintain
the firebreak
Nina Tannenwald, Dir. Int’l Relations Program and Prof @ Brown, Spring 2005, “Stigmatizing the Bomb,” International
Security, ln
What are the future prospects for AND to consider use of nuclear weapons.
Most participants expressed the opinion that AND of the United States and Russia.”
1AC Accidents Advantage
( ) The future is bleak—Russian early warning systems are worse now than in the past
Bruce G. Blair et all, Ph.D. in operations research, president of the World Security Institute, and former visiting
%202008%20.pdf
This is not just a hypothetical AND to wait before launching a counterattack.
( ) Failures in the Russian system risk accidental launch

%202008%20.pdf
( ) False alarms lead to full scale war—Russia dead-hand makes weapons systems automated
William Broad, writer for the Ottawa Citizen, Oct 9, 1993, “Russian computer able to launch nuclear missles, U.S
expert says; [Final Edition]” pg. A.8 ProQuest
The dead-hand system takes AND been exercised thoroughly in war games.
( ) It’s not just the Russian. US early warning systems are faulty
Alexei Georgievich et all, Ph.D and Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir Semyonovich,
Ph.D and leading Research Associate of the Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, Professor of the Military Sciences Academy, Major General (Ret.), Alexander Alexeevich, Head
of the RAS IMEMO PMFC Non-Proliferation and Arms Reduction Center and Assistant State Duma Deputy, and
Vladimir Georgievich Baranovsky, Ph.D and Deputy Director, RAS IMEMO, 2001 “De-alerting Russian and US nuclear
weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers” http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html
As historical experience demonstrates, the AND average by the early warning systems.
( ) Human error inevitable—US operators are drunk on the job

Alan Borning, Associate Professor of Computer Science, University of Washington, Seattle, 1987, “Computer System
Reliability and Nuclear War” ProQuest
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Another source of failure is human AND USSR or any other industrialized nation.
( ) High alert is like Russian Roulette—every error increases the chances of full scale war
Dr. Alan Phillips, nuclear peace advocate and radiologist, 16 March 1998, “TOO GRAVE A RISK”
http://www.peace.ca/toogravearisk.htm
I collected reports of twenty AND waiting for the first nuclear explosion.
( ) High alert risks all out nuclear war and extinction

Dr. Alan Phillips, nuclear peace advocate and radiologist, October 2000, “NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED”
http://www.peace.ca/nuclearwinterrevisited.htm
With thousands of rocket-launched AND disease, in a radioactive environment.
( ) US-Russia Nuclear war is the only existential risk

Nick Bostrom, PhD Faculty of Philosophy, Oxford University, 2002 “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction
Scenarios and Related Hazards” Published in the Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002
http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html
Risks in this sixth category are AND future benefits [15,16].
( ) NFU causes de-alert

Ken Berry, International Commission On Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Research Coordinator and
former Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and Disarmament in the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and
Trade, June 2009, “DRAFT TREATY ON NON-FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR
WEAPONS” http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Berry_No_First_Use_Treaty.pdf
A NFU commitment could take the AND which first use is less likely.
( ) US de-alerts decrease need for Russian launch on warning

Attachment to launch-on-AND would become less important for Russia.
( ) De-alert will be verifiable encouraging Russia to follow suit

Center for Defense Information, December 26, 1999, “Innovation In Arms Control: De-Alerting”
http://www.cdi.org/adm/1316/transcript.html
NARRATOR: Despite the dangerous decline AND de-alert its nuclear weapons.
( ) It’s gradual—Taking ground based missiles off high alert snowballs into a wider de-alert agenda as condition appear
safe
Both the tactical aspect and sequence AND facilities, away from launch pads.
( ) De-alert means different things for different parts of the triad. Submarine deterrence would change little
Bruce G. Blair, senior fellow in the Brookings Foreign Policy Studies program and former Minuteman missile launch
officer, Summer 1995, “Lengthening the fuse” The Brookings Review. Washington:. Vol. 13, Iss. 3; pg. 28, 4 pgs
ProQuest
To de-alert the bomber AND all missiles in about 24 hours.
( ) Coming off high alert doesn’t decrease deterrence

Ivan Oelrich, Ph.D. and the Acting President of the Federation of American Scientists, July 9th, 2009, “Not Getting It
Right: More Bad Reasons to Have Nuclear Weapons” http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/07/1518.php
The report advocates, even assumesAND this is plausible but I cannot.
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1AC Soft Power Advantage
No first use would boost US soft power and stop the spread of nuclear weapons
J. Martin Rochester, professor of political science and International Relations Specialist focusing on International Law
and Organization, 2007, US Foreign Policy in the Twenty-First Century, p 148
Richard Haass has said, “AND first use” of nuclear weapons.
Soft power is key to effectively wielding hard power

Joseph Nye, Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, “US Power and Strategy After Iraq,” Foreign
Affairs, July/August 2003
The willingness of other countries AND a wise response to changing times.
Decline in US hegemony leads to an apolar world of plagues, economic stagnation and nuclear wars
So what is left? Waning AND -so-new world disorder.
1AC Cuts Now Observation
( ) Cuts now – START followup ensures deep cuts by December and more next year
Anya Loukianova, Monterey Inst. AND posture_review_debate.html
In a landmark April 5, AND nuclear doctrine and strategy."[13]
( ) NPR ensures deep cuts and a reduction in the role of nuclear weapons
In August 2009, a Department AND U.S. security guarantees.
( ) Arms control is coming now – Cuts, CTBT and FMCT

Lara Marlowe, Irish Times, 7-7-2009, “Nuclear-free world,”
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0707/1224250171705.html
Despite continuing tensions over the US AND Initiative) blocked progress until now.
Aff v. Oklahoma KW
Gonzaga round 1
The United States Federal Government should prohibit the use of its nuclear weapons against a country or
organization which has not attacked the United States or its allies with nuclear weapons.
( ) NPT collapse is inevitable and will cause rapid proliferation breakout

Robert G. Gard, Lt. General, Chair CACNP, Atlantic Community, 8-25-2009, “Zero Nuclear Weapons,” Center for Arms
Control and Non-Proliferation,
There are ominous signs that the AND and prone to takeover by extremists.
( ) Without a commitment to non-use, proliferation risks deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war
A US NFU would strengthen the global norm against nuclear use and help check the impact of proliferation –
declaratory posture is key
Throughout the Cold War, the AND telling your children not to smoke.”
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This is a useful conceptual innovation AND destruction against non-combatants.21
NPT collapse coupled with US willingness to consider first use will crush the nuclear taboo – plan is vital to maintain
the firebreak
Nina Tannenwald, Dir. Int’l Relations Program and Prof @ Brown, Spring 2005, “Stigmatizing the Bomb,” International
Security, ln
What are the future prospects for AND to consider use of nuclear weapons.
Most participants expressed the opinion that AND of the United States and Russia.”
First use would set a precedent for global use of nuclear weapons
( ) US first use shatters the nuclear taboo – sparks other states to use them as well
Charles L. Glaser, Prof @ U Chicago, and Steve Fetter, Prof @ Maryland, Fall 2005, “Counterforce Revisited,”
International Security, ln
The second step -- U.AND action against countries that use them.
( ) The future is bleak—Russian early warning systems are worse now than in the past
%202008%20.pdf
This is not just a hypothetical AND to wait before launching a counterattack.
( ) Failures in the Russian system risk accidental launch

%202008%20.pdf
( ) False alarms lead to full scale war—Russia dead-hand makes weapons systems automated
William Broad, writer for the Ottawa Citizen, Oct 9, 1993, “Russian computer able to launch nuclear missles, U.S
expert says; [Final Edition]” pg. A.8 ProQuest
The dead-hand system takes AND been exercised thoroughly in war games.
( ) The risk is cumulative – we’re literally playing Russian Roulette

Alan Phillips is a retired physicist and physician who did radar research for the British army during World War II and
Steven Starr who trained in nuclear engineering, 01-08-2007, “Replace Launch on Warning Policy,”
http://www.worldfederalistscanada.org/rload/Replace_LoW_Policy_8Jan.pdf
It is very dangerous to allow AND been close to 50:50.
( ) Accidents risks extinction

Dr. Alan Phillips, nuclear peace advocate and radiologist, October 2000, “NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED”
http://www.peace.ca/nuclearwinterrevisited.htm
With thousands of rocket-launched AND disease, in a radioactive environment.
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( ) Only the Russia-US nuclear conflict causes long term nuclear winter and effects the Southern Hemisphere
Stephen Starr and Peter King, writers for science alert in coordination with the University of Sydney, Sunday, 02
August 2009, “Nuclear suicide” http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20090208-19496.html
However, new peer-reviewed AND self-destruct mechanism for humanity.
( ) Abandoning US first strike options decrease Russian vulnerability and the motivation for large arsenals on high alert
Ivan Oelrich, PhD in chemistry, vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of
American Scientists, pre-doctoral Research Associate at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, April 13, 2009,
“Ending Nuclear Counterforce” http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/04/ending-nuclear-counterforce.php
One of our recommendations is to AND get to through a first strike.
( ) US NFU policies solves Russian accidental launch

Thomas H. Karas, Principal Member, Sandia National Laboratories Technical Staff and Advanced Concepts Group
and former member of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, April 2001, “De-alerting and De-activating
Strategic Nuclear Weapons” www.nuclearthreatinitiative.org/e_research/official_docs/labs/de_alt_act_tnw.pdf
As noted in Box 1, AND ride out an enemy first strike.)
( ) Russia maintains high alert due to perceived vulnerabilities via US preemptive counterforce posture
%202008%20.pdf
Moreover, as noted, it AND . But what should replace it?
( ) Counterforce missions that encourage first use engender risky Russian nuclear postures like high alert
Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, and
previously special advisor to the Danish Minister of Defense. Robert S. Norris, Ph.D. in political science and senior
research associate with the Natural Resources Defense Council nuclear program, and Ivan Oelrich, PhD in chemistry,
vice president for Strategic Security Programs at the Federation of American Scientists, pre-doctoral Research
Associate at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, April 2009, “From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New
Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons”
www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/doctrine/targeting.pdf
While vulnerability could increase in the AND theft by or diversion to terrorists.
( ) Russia sees preemptive policies as threats

Stephen J. Blank, Ph.D. in History and Research Professor of National Security Affairs US Amy War College, March
2009, “RUSSIA AND ARMS CONTROL: ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION?”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/Pubs/Display.Cfm?pubID=908
Should we persist along the AND little or nothing about these forces.
( ) NFU prevents escalation and promotes crisis stability

Rong Yu, Ph. D. candidate at the Institute of International Strategy and Development, School of Public Policy and
Management, Tsinghua University and, Peng Guangqian, editor-in-chief of Strategic Sciences, Winter 2009 “Nuclear
No-First-Use Revisited” http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=225&Itemid=8
In crisis situations, both firstAND of wars will be under control.
( ) Cuts now – START followup ensures deep cuts by December and more next year
In a landmark April 5, AND nuclear doctrine and strategy."[13]
( ) NPR ensures deep cuts and a reduction in the role of nuclear weapons
In August 2009, a Department AND U.S. security guarantees.
( ) Arms control is coming now – Cuts, CTBT and FMCT

Lara Marlowe, Irish Times, 7-7-2009, “Nuclear-free world,”
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0707/1224250171705.html
Despite continuing tensions over the US AND Initiative) blocked progress until now.
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2AC
( ) Consequences can be assessed, despite their critique of our epistemology – any chance we’re right about our
predictions of the future is a reason to prefer the plan to doing nothing
Tyler Cowen, GMU, December 2006, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism,” Utilitas, 18:4, pq
The epistemic critique relies heavily on AND large upfront benefits of obvious importance.
You used the word “holocaust” instead of “Shoah” – that is anti-Semitic and you should lose
Giorgio Agamben, professor of philosophy at the university of Verona, Remnants of Auschwitz: The Witness and the
Archive, 1999, pg. 28-31
1.10 The history AND , 1940: “the general holocaust
<CONTINUED>
( ) Critique fails without a specific policy goal

Stephen Eric Bronner, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University, 2004, Reclaiming the Enlightenment:
Toward a Politics of Radical Engagement, p. 124-25
But the battles between the supporters AND vulgarity of the life they live.
( ) The permutation doesn’t link– reformist political actions in context of radical change isn’t mutually exclusive – It can
be used to undermine systems of power
Chris Dixon, Activist and founding member of Direct Action Network, 2005, “Reflections on Privilege, Reformism, and
Activism,” www.geocities.com/kk_abacus/ioaa/dixon2.html, accessed 3-6-05
Evidently sasha doesn't grasp my argument AND All were born from long, hard
struggles, and none were endpointsAND Altogether, they give me hope.
( ) Alt fails – they have no mechanism to convert theory into practice

Richard Wyn Jones, 1999, “Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory,” ciao
Because emancipatory political practice is central AND it is a fatally flawed enterprise.
( ) It’s not enough for their alternative to have a GOAL – they have to have a MECHANISM to achieve it
Alastair Murray, Politics Department, University of Wales Swansea, Reconstructing Realism, 1997, p. 188-189
Ashley's critique thus boils down to AND , is manifestly unable to provide."
( ) Abandoning reformism allows neoliberalism to run rampant, increasing suffering

Dr. Richard Barbrook, Hypermedia Research Centre – U. of Westminster, 6-5-1997, “More Provocations,”
Amsterdam.nettime.org/Lists-Archives/nettime-1-9706/msg00034.html
I thought that this position is AND However, human suffering is not.
State sovereignty is the last check on unmitigated corporate exploitation

Jacques Derrida, Ecole des hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales Director of Studies, Questioning Ethics:
Contemporary Debates In Philosophy, 1999, p. 74-5
Now, perhaps using the strategy of deconstruction,
perhaps the good old state might be useful!
1) Zizek can offer no example of a successful anti-capitalist struggle. This means we’re left waiting for the system’s
logic to play itself out, leading to political nihilism.
Ernesto Laclau, Professor of Political Theory at the University of Essex and Visiting Professor of Comparative
Literature at SUNY-Buffalo, 2004, Umbr(a): War, p. 33-34
Here we reach the crux of the
effects. Ergo: political nihilism.
) Four reasons Zizek’s politics are a terrible idea and the plan is net-beneficial
1) His politics are authoritarian and despotic; 2) The alt trades off with previous advances by the left; 3) Prevents
coalition-building against capitalism; 4) Pragmatic action best overcomes the ‘impossibility’ of capitalism
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Andrew Robinson, Postgraduate student, School of Politics, University of Nottingham, and Simon Tormey, Senior
Lecturer in Politics and Critical Theory, University of Nottingham, 2003, online:
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/simon.tormey/articles/Zizeknotradical.pdf, accessed October 22, 2004
Zizek’s politics are not merely impossibleAND into the ‘now-here’.
There are no limits to growth – if it continues it will become qualitative, rather than quantitative
Martin Lewis professor in the School of the Environment and the Center for International Studies at Duke University.
Green Delusions, 1992 p 9-10
Ultimately, green extremism is rooted AND the price we may well perish.
Continued growth solves scarcity (and thus the warrant for their “inevitable” wars)
Michael Zey, professor at the School of Business Administration at Montclair University and executive director of the
Expansionary Institute and internationally recognized expert on the economy, society and management, as well as
author. Seizing the Future, 1998 p 22-23
In the Macroindustrial Era, we AND the first time in human history.
This abundance is the only way to achieve the mindset shift (away from consumption) that they want.
Alex Bainbridge, Socialist Alliance spokesperson and member of the Left Green Network, "Yes, abundance is
sustainable," GREEN LEFT WEEKLY #271, 1997, http://www.greenleft.org.au/back/1997/271/271p13.htm
Ron Guignard (GLW #270) takes issue with my
want their own personal tools.
Their cards are based on the flawed assumption that growth is quantitative. It’s qualitative, which takes out their
impacts
Ralf Schauerhammer, editor of the German-language science magazine Fusion, "Why There Really Are No Limits to
Growth," 21st CENTURY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.Spring 2002.
In recent months, it has AND especially the case for economic processes.
1AR
( ) Predictions are accurate – our cards are on-point that their dart-throwing monkey studies are wrong and suffer from
severe selection bias
Bryan Caplan, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, 12-26-2005, EconLog,
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/12/tackling_tetloc_1.html
Philip Tetlock, one of my AND their credibility if they stop overreaching.
( ) competition for power, not capitalism drives state decision making

John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 2001,
http://www.wwnorton.com/catalog/fall01/002025excerpt.htm, accessed 11/14/02
The optimists' claim that security competition AND states in each region at peace.
( ) Death imagery affirms life

Michael Allen Fox, Assoc. Prof Phil. @ Queens, 1985, “Nuclear War: Philosophical Perspectives,” ed. Fox and
Groarke, p. 127
There remains but one choice: AND entity we know as human life.
Fear is necessary to check extinction – provides a consciousness which sustains peace

J.A.H. Futterman, Former US nuclear weapons scientist, 1994, “Obscenity and Peace: Meditation on the Bomb,”
Virtual Church of the Blind Chihuahua, www.dogchurch.org/books/nuke.html
But the inhibitory effect of reliable AND our future technological breakthroughs.[16]
CHINA Advantage
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China war coming – weapons buildups, doctrinal shifts, nationalism, and Russia/China alliance
Mark Schneider, National Institute of Public Policy, 8/28/2009, “The Nuclear Doctrine and Forces of the People’s
Republic of China,” Comparative Strategy, 28.3, p. 244-245
China is the only nuclear power AND nuclear option in the future.”1
Chinese modernization leads to war – miscalculation, arms race, and regional conflict
Christopher P. Twomey, Assistant Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, February 2009, “Chinese-U.S.
Strategic Affairs: Dangerous Dynamism,” Arms Control Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_01-
02/china_us_dangerous_dynamism#Twomey
China and the United States are AND undermine stability in an intense crisis.
Chinese backsliding on NFU would damage US/Sino relations, ruin peaceful rise, and lead to crisis instability
Baohui Zhang, Lingnan University, April 2008, “The Taiwan Strait and the Future of China’s No-First-Use Nuclear
Policy,” Comparative Strategy, 27.2, p. 175
First, renouncing the no-AND inevitable enemy in the long term.
US and regional responses lead to multiple nuclear wars

Pan Zhenqiang, Professor at the National Defence University of the People’s Liberation Army of China, Autumn 2005,
“China Insistence on No-Fire-Use of Nuclear Weapons,” China Security, 1, p. 6
Second, if the NFU rationale AND in the best interest of China.
US-China relations are crucial to regional stability.

David Shambaugh, Director of the China Policy Program @ George Washington University. International Security,
Volume 29, Issue 3, Winter 2005. “China Engages Asia.”
http://www.brookings.org/dybdocroot/views/articles/shambaugh/20050506.pdf
On balance, this complex relationship AND seek to avoid at all costs.
Regional instability leads to nuclear war and destruction of the world.

Michael May, Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford, Washington Quarterly, Summer 97
The unpalatable facts, AND the civilized world devastated.
Maintaining US-Sino ties is crucial to prevent escalation over Taiwan.

Paul Kerr, research analyst at the Arms Control Association. International Security, “Taiwan: Maintain the Current
Ambiguity.” Volume 1, Number 1 - Fall 1999. http://www.csis.org/pubs/prospectus/99FallKerr.html
Stable U.S.-China AND peaceful relations with the United States.
( ) Extinction
US NFU pledge solves relations – confidence building and PLA

Jing-dong Yuan, April 2009, “China and the Nuclear-Free World,” Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear
Disarmament, Monterey Institute of International Studies, p. 35-36
China’s support of an FMCT and AND and the United States. 56.
US strategic posture is driving China to abandon its NFU

Baohui Zhang, Lingnan University, April 2008, “The Taiwan Strait and the Future of China’s No-First-Use Nuclear
Policy,” Comparative Strategy, 27.2, p. 164-165
The rise of China has generated AND to protect its vital national interests.
NFU prevents Chinese backsliding – military planners, fear, and Taiwan

Taiho Lin, Assistant Professor at Shih Chien University, 2007, “The Implications of U.S. Nuclear Strategy for Taiwan’s
Security,” 東吳政治學報, 25.2, p. 148-149
China’s perception of NPR in general AND , 2004: 59-62).
US posture justifies Chinese modernization – leadership, cold war logic, and intensifying arms race
Hans M. Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Robert S.
Norris, senior research associate at the NRDC nuclear program, and Matthew G. McKinzie, Ph.D. and scientific
consultant to ther Nuclear Program at the Natural Resrouces Defense Council, November 2006, “Chinese Nuclear
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Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning,” The Federation of American Scientists & The Natural Resources Defense
Council, p. 1
An incipient nuclear arms race is AND cultural relationship between the two giants.
NFU would comfort the PLA and increase relations

Lora Saalman, April 2009, Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament,” Engaging China and Russia on
Nuclear Disarmament, Monterey Institute of International Studies, p. 55
NFU remains a central and unquestioned AND the basic spirit of arms control.
India ADV
India is watering down their NFU commitment in response to US first use policy – they’ve explicitly reserved the right to
nuclear retaliation against CBW attacks, and are on the brink of repealing it altogether. This undermines crisis stability
and makes Indo-Pak war inevitable
Rifaat Hussain, Executive Director at the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, Sri Lanka, Ph.D. in International
Studies from the University of Denver, 12-2005, “Nuclear Doctrines in South Asia,” South Asian Strategic Stability Unit
se1.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/99918/.../RR+No+04.pdf
The 4 January 2003 official statement AND as accelerate the regional arms race.”
This scenario for escalation is likely – CBW attack is coming now against India
India Today, 08-05-2009, “Chemical Terror: India on Alert,” http://indiatoday.intoday.in/index.php?
option=com_content&task=view&id=55257&sectionid=4&secid=0&Itemid=1&issueid=85
Imagine the destruction if chemical weapons AND because chemical warfare is virtually unstoppable.
Indian response to Pakistani terrorism ensures full-scale escalation – the border situation is volatile
India News Online, 12-29-2008, “Indo-Pak Military escalation; Islamabad disowns Kasab,”
http://news.indiamart.com/news-analysis/-indo-pak-military-e-20759.html
Amid reports of enhanced Pakistani military AND could take place in other places.
Backsliding on India’s NFU ensures nuclear escalation

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Research Fellow for South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 04-2004,
“Nuclear doctrine, declaratory policy, and escalation control,” Henry L Stimson Center, International institute for
strategic studies, http://www.iiss.org/about-us/staffexpertise/list-experts-by-name/rahul-roy-chaudhury/recent-
articles/cnuclear-doctrine-declaratory-policy/
Although Musharraf did not specifically mention AND ” comments and not Government policy.
Indian response to Pakistani terrorism causes nuclear war

Michael Krepon, Co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center and the author or editor of thirteen books and over 350
articles, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency during the
Carter administration, and in the US House of Representative, MA from the School of Advanced International Studies,
Johns Hopkins University, 11-2004, “The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation Control,” Stimson,
http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=191
These divergent views do not provide AND very poor basis for nuclear stabilization.
Even a small nuclear Indo-Pak war causes nuclear winter and mass starvation
Eric Lane, writer for the American Association for the Advancement of Science, June 23, 2008, “Regional Nuclear War
Could Have Drastic Climate Impact, Experts Say at AAAS” http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2008/0623nukes.shtml
While such concerns receded after the AND latitudes for more than a decade.
Indo-Pak nuclear launch draws in the US and Russia—flight path misperceptions

Alexei Georgievich, Ph.D and Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir Semyonovich, Ph.D
and leading Research Associate of the Institute of International Economy and Foreign Relations of the Russian
In an environment characterized by the AND uncertainty as to their real target.
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Unconditional US NFU creates Indian reciprocation and calms Pakistan – prevents escalatory scenarios
Ken Berry, ICNND Research Coordinator and former assistant secretary for Arms Control and disarmament in the
Australian department of foreign affairs and trade, June 2009, “Draft Treaty on Non-First Use of Nuclear Weapons,”
While some nuclear-armed states AND postpone production of an actual treaty.
India models US NFU – prevents nuclear use during a conflict

US officials have long claimed that AND pushing India in the opposite direction.
First Use ADV

( ) CBW attacks on the US are inevitable – terrorists already have the capability and motivation
Claude Salhani, editor of Mideast Times, 5-4-2009, “Global urban threats,” UPI, ln
In October 2000 Anthony Zinni, AND with the proper bio-agents.
( ) Status quo US policy explicitly endorses a nuclear response to CBW attacks

Throughout the two terms of the AND .S. nuclear strike options.
( ) Maintaining a nuclear option against CBW’s makes use inevitable – sets a commitment trap that would wreck the
global norm against nuclear weapons
Scott Sagan, Poly Sci Prof @ Stanford, Spring 2000, “The Commitment Trap,” International Security, v. 24, no. 4,
http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20284/sagan_is_spr00.pdf
The greatest danger created by UAND S. nuclear weapons use.68
( ) US shouldn’t threaten to use nuclear weapons to respond to CBW – makes use more likely, spurs proliferation,
jacks heg, and doesn’t work
Bruce G. Blair, et al, Ph.D. in operations research, president of the World Security Institute, and former visiting
%202008%20.pdf
Some believe that the consequences of AND necessary, respond to nuclear attacks.
( ) Collapse of heg causes great power transition wars, destroys democratic peace, and causes economic collapse -
multipolarity can’t provide for stability or solve a plethora of global problems.
Bradley Thayer, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, December, 2006, "In Defense
of Primacy,” The National Interest, Lexis.
Retrenchment proponents seem to think that AND hope of solving the world's ills.
( ) First use independently spills over to rampant nuclear use

( ) Proliferation leads to nuclear war – deterrence fails

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Whitman Cole/Zendeh (NFU) [DCH]
See Whitman CS
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Whitman Humble/Silver (NFU) [DCH]
<<see Whitman CS>>
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Wichita State Coleman/Munday (NFU) [DCH]
Plan
The United States federal government should adopt a policy of No nuclear First Use.
Advantage One – China

Chinese nuclear modernization happening now
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 09 (“China’s Nuclear Modernization,” Carnegie Proliferation Brief, Vol 2,
NO.8, 2009, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=93&prog=zgp&proj=znpp)
China is slowly modernizing its strategic AND potential deployment of missile defense systems.

First strike policy is the driving factor
FAS 9 (Federation of American Scientists, Apr, “Ending Nuclear Counterforce,” Online, Acc. Jul 29, 2009)
Even so, if the benefits AND get to through a first strike.

Modernization magnifies internal wealth disparities collapsing the regime
High-Stakes Gamble?”, Strategic Forum, No. 204, Acc. Jul 29, 2009)
China’s accelerated push to modernize the AND advantage at other political entities’ expense.

That causes a Chinese lash out
Epoch Times 5 [Aug 3, http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-3/30975.html]
Since the Party’s life is “AND hostage and gamble with their lives.

A US NFU pledge is key to stopping rapid modernization
NTI 07 (NTI, “No-First-Use (NFU),” 2007, http://www.nti.org/db/china/nfuorg.htm)
One of China's main nuclear arms AND -targeting accord in June 1998.

Maintenance of our first use policy ensures a rollback of Chinas no first use pledge
NTI 3 (Nuclear Threat Initiative, Jun 26, “No-First-Use (NFU),” http://nuclearthreatinitiative.org/db/china/nfuorg.htm,
Acc. Jul 28, 2009)
China remains publicly committed to a AND International Studies, 2003, forthcoming.]

Even if China keeps its NFU pledge – our lack of one makes nuclear exchange inevitable
http://www.wsichina.org/attach/CS2_3.pdf, AD: 7-29-09)
Some Chinese analysts argue that deployment AND the United States alliance system.”54

A unilateral declaration is the best way to ease tensions and prevent a Chinese rollback
Berry 9 Ken, ICNND Research Coordinator “DRAFT TREATY ON NON-FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS”
As noted in the Introduction, AND they would be prepared to consider.
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Abandonment of NFU by China crushes stability – ending in a US – Sino war
Zhenqiang 5 [Pan, Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, retired Major General of
http://www.irchina.org/en/news/view.asp?id=403, Acc. Jul 28, 2009]cn
Second, if the NFU rationale AND in the best interest of China.

Extinction
Straits Times 2k [Jun 25, LEXIS]cn
THE high-intensity scenario postulates AND China puts sovereignty above everything else.
Advantage Two – Iran

Iranian nuclearization coming now
Sydney Morning Herald, 9/16/09, "France certain Iran working on nukes," http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-
world/france-certain-iran-working-on-nukes-20090916-fq3n.html
French intelligence agencies are certain that AND weapons) program," he said.

Best intelligence indicates they are in the final stages
Debka 8-31
[Debka file, 09, Six nations may reveal data concealed by ELBaradei on Iran's nuclear progress ,
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6244]
US, Israel and four other AND Security Council will discuss nuclear proliferation.

We only have a year until the Middle East turns into a bloodbath
Kuhner ‘9 [Jeffrey Mar 30, The Washington Times, Obama ‘s grand illusions; Sometimes just talking it over isn't
enough, lexis
Israeli intelligence officials are convinced Iran AND Republic to abandon its nuclear program.

We have less than a month to engage Iran before the U.S. enacts crippling sanctions.
Daniel Luban and Jim Lobe, 9/11/09, IPS, "US-IRAN: War Drums Being Beating in Washington,"
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=48415
Obama has given Tehran an endAND in charge of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Iran has agreed to meet with the U.S. at the end of September, but these talks will fail in the squo. The plan is the key
bargaining chip to persuade Iran to denuclearize.
LA Times, 9/14/09, "Iran, world powers to hold nuclear talks in October,"
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear15-2009sep15,0,5167163.story
After months of anticipation, the AND -American ideology and security posture.

The plan resolves the dispute – US first use is the main motivation for nuclearization
Daly 7 [Ted, Peace and Disarmament Fellow in the Los Angeles office of Physicians for Social Responsibility, March 5,
“What Would You Do if You Were Iran?”
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20070305_what_would_you_do_if_you_were_iran/,
During the Cold War’s long atomic AND hint of an American first strike.
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These sanctions would lead to Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz and a U.S.-Iranian war.
Conn Hallinan, 8/27/09, "Dispatches from the Edge, Of Bases, Big Bombs and Earthquakes,"
http://www.berkeleydailyplanet.com/issue/2009-08-27/article/33620?headline=Dispatches-from-the-Edge-Of-Bases-
Big-Bombs-and-Earthquakes
Exactly how a gasoline embargo would AND figure heavily in such an attack.

Oil shocks will collapse the world economy and are more lethal than terrorism and war.
Paul Roberts, (regular contributor to Harper's and NYT Magazine) 2004 The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New
World, p. 93-4.
The obsessive focus on oil is AND survival than terrorism or even war.

Economic collapse ensures extinction.
Galal Nassar, 12/9/08, Al-Ahram Weekly Online, “A possible consensus,”
This is a lot for the AND but extinction for the human race.

The plan is a prerequisite to effective diplomatic action
http://www.maximsnews.com/news20080822stanleyfdtnnuclearfirststrikedoctrine10808221601.htm,
Participants were concerned that the September AND to bear against Iran’s enrichment program.
Solvency
Our NFU would be perceived as credible
Sagan 9’ Scott D., Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Center for
International Security and Cooperation, “The Case for No First Use”, Survival, vol. 51 no. 3, June–July 2009, pp. 177
The second objection is that noAND declaratory policy would be significantly enhanced.
Solvency
NFU contains conflict – no risk of escalation in a world of the plan
Yu and Guangqin 9 Rong, PhD Candidate at Tsingua U., Peng, Chief Editor of Strategic Sciences, “Nuclear No-First-
Use Revisited,” China Security Vol 5 No 1, Winter 2k9, http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Peng_and_Rong.pdf,
In crisis situations, both firstAND of wars will be under control.
Solvency
A NFU pledge solves Chinese modernization and conflict escalation
Arbatov 8Alexei, Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee of the State Duma in the Federal Assembly of the
Russian Federation, “Non-First Use As a Way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons,” International Commission on Nuclear
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, November
In this context a real problem AND pledge by the USA and China.
Solvency
First use doesn’t deter – current conventional forces solve
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If such an open-ended AND could be all that is required.

none
Looking for tags?

"Details and Tags".
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**TNWs**
Baylor Luppes/Roney (TNWs) [Kelly]
GSU Aff Disclosure

Tactical weapons talks off the table now
PAYNE 2009 Arms Control Amnesia Keith Payne Wall Street Journal July 8 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124693303362103841.html
Third, the new…off the table.
Plan: the United States President should update the authorization of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Italy, the
Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Turkey to order the withdrawal and dismantlement of the
weapons.
Normal means the executive does the plan

GREENPEACE 06 Why US NATO nuclear weapons must go
http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/securing-our-safety.pdf
US nuclear policy,…hosting the weapons.
Nuclear Terrorism Adv.
TNWs in Europe are highly vulnerable to theft for multiple reasons – even without nuclear detonation, they can still kill
millions
CND 05 US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe October 2005 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament
http://www.cnduk.org/pages/binfo/nato2005.pdf.
TNW are more … particles of plutonium
Terrorists want to attack the US
HLR 08 May, 2008 121 Harvard. Law. Rev. 1864 NOTE: THE INCENTIVE GAP: REASSESSING U.S. POLICIES TO
SECURE NUCLEAR ARSENALS WORLDWIDE
The short answer, …house in Afghanistan
Nuclear terrorism is the highest risk for WMD use
ARBATOV 06 Carnegie Endowment Moscow Center 2006 Nuclear Deterrence and Nonproliferation Alexei Arbatov
and Vladimir Dvorkin
Recognizing that the …the greatest threat
High probability of nuclear terrorism against the US
ALLISON 07 How Likely is a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States? Michael A. Levi, David M. Rubenstein
Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change
Graham T. Allison Council on Foreign Relations April 20, 2007 http://www.cfr.org/publication/13097/
I also agree. … Lugar in 2005.
Terrorists have already tried to steal nuclear weapons from Europe – only removing TNWs eliminates that threat
KRISTENSEN 05 US Nuclear Weapons in Europe Hans M Kristensen Natural Resources Defence Council February
2005
And then there … Closure (BRAC) process.
A nuclear terrorist attack in the U.S. will trigger retaliation that will kill 100 million people
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Greg Easterbrook, senior editor with THE NEW REPUBLIC, November 2001, p.
www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0111/01/gal.00.html.
Terrorists may not … dozen Muslim countries.
This will escalate to mass extinction via global nuclear war
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, 2004 [Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705,
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
What would be …all be losers.
Accidents Adv.
The risk of accidents involving TNW’s is high – only half of the bases pass the safety inspection tests
CND 2005 US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe October 2005 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament
http://www.cnduk.org/pages/binfo/nato2005.pdf.
CND is very … in a pass
Specifically, these safety tests said even lightning strikes could cause the weapons to explode
2005
The potential consequence …of nuclear detonation
Even if the weapons don’t explode, they can still release radioactive material
Although NATO’s nuclear … THE RAMSTEIN AIRBASE
Explosion of the weapons kills thousands of people

At the hypocentre, … victims was 237,062
Accidents can spiral and cause extinction

HELLMAN 2008 The Bent Spring 2008 http://nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf The Odds for Nuclear Armegeddon Dr Martin E
Hellman Stanford prof
Some might argue … out of control
Air Power Adv.
Protecting TNWs undermines other Air Force priorities.

THRANERT 08 Dr. Oliver Thranert. ‚U.S. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes, But Not Yet‛ Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace, December 10, 2008, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp
Against this background, …deems more important.
Removing TNWs frees up money for the Air Force.
Oelrich 05 (Ivan, Director of the Strategic Security Program at the Federation of American Scientists
http://www.fas.org/resource/01282005175922.pdf)
We must also … the first place.
Loss of air power undermines deterrence against China.
EAGLEN 7/7/09 The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security by Mackenzie Eaglen and
Lajos Szaszdi, Ph.D. Backgrounder #2295 http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/bg2295.cfm
China. China has … the coming decades.
Loss of deterrence against China causes them to invade Taiwan.
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Kagan 06 Frederick Kagan, FINDING THE TARGET, 2006, p. 375
If, however, a …out of fear.
That causes a U.S./China nuclear war and goes global.
Hsiung 01 James Hsiung, professor of politics and international law at NYU, 21ST CENTURY WORLD ORDER AND
THE ASIA PACIFIC, 2001, p. 359-60
But decision-makers … the conflict’s wake.
Iran Strikes Bad Adv.
The White House REALLY PISSED OFF THE MILITARY – NOW IS KEY TO APPEASE THE MILITARY
Feaver 7/1/09 (Peter, PhD, Alexander F. Hehmeyer professor of political science and public policy at Duke University
and director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies. htto://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009107101/the white
house and woodward, mg)
The Obama administration …with this story.
The plan is a win for Obama – the Air Force, Navy, Stratcom, and Joint Chiefs of Staff want to end nuclear sharing
LARSEN 06 The Future of U.S. Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Implications for NATO Drifting Toward the
Foreseeable Future Jeffrey A. Larsen, Ph.D. NATO Public Diplomacy Division 31 October 2006
http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs/311006.pdf
The U.S. Air … rather than policy.127
An angry military will backlash against Obama - collapsing civil-military relations
Feaver 09 (Peter, PhD, is the Alexander F. Hehmeyer professor of political science and public policy at Duke
University and director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies,
http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/05/15/is_obama_really_getting_rolled_by_the_us_military, mg)
My FP colleague …light that fire.
A military backlash would force Obama to first strike Iran
Dreyfuss 08 (Robert is a contributing editor at the Nation magazine, whose website hosts his The Dreyfuss Report,
and has written frequently for Rolling Stone, The American Prospect, Mother Jones, and the Washington Monthly. He
is the author of Devil’s Game: How the United States helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam, 12/2,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-dreyfuss/still-preparing-to-attack_b_147876.html, mg)
A familiar coalition … to no attention.
TNWs will be used to first strike Iran

In April an … a US conflict.
High risk of unauthorized launch of TNWs
BEACH 2004 Disarmament Diplomacy Issue No. 77, May/June 2004 Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Europe's Redundant
WMD Hugh Beach
In the 1994 … for war fighting."16
Iran strikes escalate to global nuclear war
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Jorge Hirsch, 06 Professor of physics, University of California San Diego, AMERICA & IRAN, February 4, p.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8577
The U.S. has … We may never
Russia Adv.
Russia will pursue Anti-American policies in the squo
Stack 7/4/09 (Megan, “Bucking the U.S. plays well in Russia; Obama seeks a fresh start with his visit, but anti-
American policies are deeply entrenched in the Kremlin.,” LA Times, lexis)
Despite a reshuffle … in the presidency.
Russia’s TNWs are highly vulnerable to theft.
NTI 9/15/09 (“Securing Nuclear Warheads and Materials Nuclear Warhead Security Upgrades,”
“http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/securing/warhead.asp)
Tactical warheads. Currently, … prevent unauthorized use.
High risk of terrorist attack against Russia
Allison 04 (Graham, “Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of
Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School,” Nuclear Terrorism: How Serious a Threat to
Russia? September/October, http://www.globalaffairs.ru/articles/0/3069.html)
A careful reader … or Washington DC.
A nuclear attack on Russia triggers the doomsday machine – this guarantees extinction.
Rosenbaum 07 (Ron, 8/31, The Return of the Doomsday Machine?, Slate,

http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/)
"The nuclear doomsday … still in place."
Removing TNWs increases transparency of Russia’s TNWs.
POLSER 04 Theater Nuclear Weapons in Europe: The Contemporary Debate Strategic Insights, Center for
Contemporary Conflict Strategic Insights Volume III, Issue 9 (September 2004) Maj. Brian Polser, USAF
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2004/sep/polserSept04.asp
U.S. theater nuclear …the nonproliferation effort.
The presence of US TNWs discourages positive Russia-NATO relations

2005
At every juncture … the same reasons.
NATO justifications for nuclear weapons encourage Russian acquisition – removing TNW’s encourages NATO-Russia
cooperation
Both NATO and … 1991 initiatives."[15]
Reviving NATO-Russian relations is key to negotiate conflicts over arctic resources.
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RIA Novosti 09 [5/27, “U.S. analyst says NATO-Russia Council ideal for Arctic talks.”
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090527/155103313.html]
A leading U.S. … Dr. Perry said.
Conflict over the arctic is coming and will cause nuclear war
Kimball 08 (Spencer, “Resource War of The Future: The Scramble For The Arctic” Mon, Apr 21, 2008
The great irony … the Arctic seabed.
U.S.-Russian war means extinction
Nick Bostrom, 2002. Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale. "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human
Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards," 38, www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html.
A much greater … humankind’s potential permanently.
NATO Cohesion Adv.
Now is the key time to bolster NATO. U.S. leadership is critical.
McNamara 09 [Sally, Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, a
division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.
“Reforming and Revitalizing NATO: A Memo to President-elect Obama.” Jan. 6th,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Europe/sr0039.cfm]
In the past … to be successful.
TNWs undermine NATO cohesion
This policy also …emerging between allies."[14]
Removing TNW’s from Europe now is key to reinvigorate the NATO alliance.
Butcher 09 [Martin, “NATO and Nuclear Weapons.” The Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy.” May,
http://www.acronym.org.uk/nato/09summit.htm#top]
NATO is … to be done.
Shifting security focus to modern threats is key to revitalize NATO.
Hunter 5/6/09 [Robert, ambassador. “NATO After the Summit: Rebuilding Consensus.” Testimony before the U.S.
Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on European Affairs.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2009/RAND_CT331.pdf]
I have introduced …major historic change.
NATO is key to hegemony
Rühle 03 Michael, Head of Policy Planning in the NATO Political Affairs Division, summer [Parameters]
Despite the fundamental … has only increased.
LOSS OF U.S. HEGEMONY CAUSES NUCLEAR WAR
Khalilzad 95 (Zalmay, THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, Spring 1995, p. online)
Under the third …s of power system.
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GSU Doubles
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Georgia State Grace/Schaller (TNWs) [Kelly]
Type in the content of your page here.

Round 4 (Kentucky) v. Harvard BH
Remove tactical weapons from Europe & Turkey
C1
1. TNW withdraw inevitable. Aff is controled withdrawl
Ingram09 (eliminating battlefield nuclear weapons from Europe and moving towards the adoption of a non-nuclear
weapon security doctrine for the Alliance, www.basicint.org)
I conclude by ... Alliance warn of.
2. Recent Obama NMD move doesn't include tactical nukes

Global Security Newswire 8/5 (Martin Matishak, "US could pull bck Europe-based nukes,s tate department official
says)
US President Barack ... added without elaborating
A1 Russia
1. No plan = Chechen terrorists getting nukes
Saradzhyan 8-10-09(Tactical Nukes: A strategic asset or future liability)
One reason why ... non-state actors
2. Chechen extremists will get bomb

Bale 04 (www.nti.org/e_research/e3_46a.html)
However, one can ... even more catastrophic
3. 100k dead
Albright 02 (www.nautilus.org/fora/Special-policy-forum/47_albright.html)
Although the overall ... order and institutions
4. Russia in catch-22 forced to escalate

King 08 (Nato nuclear sharing: opportunity for change?)
despite the underlying ... critical to global security
5. Russia agression increases nationalism

Khachaturian 09 (The Specter of Russian Nationalism)
More than ever before ... nationalist drum
6. Increased nationalism = US first strike

Sharavin 07 (Will America Fight Russia?)
Provoking the US ... instigate a war yet.
7. Global escalation
Bostrom 02(existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenerios and related hazards)
with the exception ... the 21st century
8. Extinction
Caldicott 06 (Ottawa Citizen 10/18)
while lateral prolif ... environmental group.
9. US/Russia relations key stop nationalism

Hamilton 03 (Dealing with the Russian's INternational Economy 6/22)
The US and Russia ... Russian expansionism
10. Unilat US reductions -> Russian reductions

Diakov 04 (Non-strategic nuclear weapons: problems of control & reduction)
Russia views the ... national terroitories
11. russia will follow plan
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alexander03 (Tactical nuclear weapons)

Nuclear arms control ... current interantional system
A2 Nato
1. Tactical nukes divide nato
kristensen06 (US Nuclear weapons in Europe a proposed solution)
Formally, at least ...withdrawn from Europe
2. plan 1st step stablize nato

kristensen06(same cite above)
Then there is ... Cold War alliance
3. Nato instability inevitable w/o plan

international analyst network 08 (this is the key ... best possible way)
4. Plan solves NATO

States news service 09 (The Minot Investigations:from fixing problems to nuclear advoacy)
The TLAM ... Korea in 1991
5. NATO brink collapse

Davis09 (The Shawdow of NATO Summit: Options for NATO)
There are good ... of this war.
6. Reverse US tactical nukes solves Afghan

Lindborg09(The NATO Summit Openings for a new nuclear posture)
NATO's 60th ... resource-heavy missions
7. NATO lynchpin of Afghan

Sare09(www.stillwater-newspress.com/editorials/local_story_187102639.html)
What can the ... must be forged
8. Afghan failure destabilizes central asia

Szayna 05 (Faultlines of conflict in central asia and the south caucasus)
The situation in ... south caucasus conflicts.
9. nuke war
starr1 (The war against terrorism and us bilateral relations with the nations of central asia)
however, this does ... US Cannont ignore
10. Plan solves everything

states news service09 (above)
The TLAM and DCA .... should be reassessed.
Plan: The United States federal government should eliminate its non-strategic nuclear explosive devices in Belgium,
the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey
Contention One: The Status Quo
American TNWs will inevitably be withdrawn from Europe due to cost issues. We have to choose between doing it now
in a controlled way or risking a sudden, radical withdrawal.
Ingram 2009 - Executive Director, British American Security Information Council,
(Paul, April“Eliminating battlefield nuclear weapons from Europe and moving towards the adoption of a non-nuclear
weapon security doctrine for the Alliance,” in “The Shadow NATO Summit: Options for NATO - pressing the reset
button on the strategic concept,” British American Security Information Council,
http://www.basicint.org/pubs/natoshadow.pdf)
I conclude by observing that in my opinion…force in the Alliance warn of.
But, the recent US-Russia agreement to limit nuclear weapons does not include tactical nonstrategic nuclear weapons
Global Security Newswire 8.5
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(Martin Matishak, “U.S. Could Pull Back Europe-Based Nukes, State Department Official Says,”)
U.S. President Barack Obama and…Organization, he added without elaborating.
Also, mutual cuts in forwardly deployed TNW waned after the early 90s – no new measures have been taken
Kimball and Boese 2006 - Executive Director of Strategic Arms Control and Policy and Research Director
(Daryl, and Wade, “The Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs) on Tactical Nuclear Weapons At a Glance,” March,
http://www.armscontrol.org/ factsheets/pniglance)
Near the Cold War’s end… since the early 1990s
Advantage One: Russia

Negotiations won’t eliminate TNWs in the immediate future. Absent the plan, Russia will extend the missions of its
TNWs to counterbalance its growing conventional inferiority. This makes nuclear confrontation with NATO and
unauthorized use certain, and risks acquisition of nukes by Chechen terrorists.
Saradzhyan 8 – 10 – 09 – Research Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center
(Simon, “Tactical Nukes: A Strategic Asset or Future Liability?” International Relations and Security Network)
One reason why Russia has bundled TNW control with so many…arms by either nation states or non-state actors.
Foreign extremists have made inroads into the Chechen resistance. If the Chechens acquire nukes, these fighters will
deploy the weapons against both Russia and the West. This evidence assumes all their answers to our scenario and
indicts them.
Bale 04 – Senior Research Associate, Monterey Institute of International Studies, James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, NTI, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_47a.html
However, one can easily envision another possible scenario…the results could be even more catastrophic.
Plus, we control the internal link – the weak Russian military makes the risk of terrorist nuclear threat inevitable
Speice, 06 – JD 2006, College of William & Mary
(Patrick, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, lexis)
Organizations such as the Russian military… the use of nuclear weapons. 53
And, we control uniqueness – as NATO encroaches on former Soviet satellites, Russia becomes more distrustful of
Western nations and institutions
Friedman 8 – 31 – 09 – Chief Executive of Stratfor
(George, “The Western View of Russia,” Stratfor Global Intelligence Report, http://hosted.
verticalresponse.com/442059/ 20b54a6fba/1641503413/ d2609fb2e0/)
While the nuclear balance remains, by itself it is hollow… post-Cold War policies they nurtured.
The impact is hundreds of thousands of deaths, economic collapse, and US retaliation against Russia
Albright 02 – Institute for Science and International Security, David, NAUTILUS SPECIAL FORUM, November 6, 2002,
p. http://www.nautilus.org/fora/Special-Policy-Forum/47_Albright.html
Although the overall chance of al Qaeda detonating…alter world order and institutions.
US TNWs put Russia in a catch-22. As long as NATO has them, Russia maintains its own TNW arsenal in the hopes
of prompting negotiations. However, those negotiations will never succeed. The impact is an escalating cycle of Russia
paranoia and distrust of NATO. Only the plan solves.
King, Lindborg and Maxon 2008
(Jeff, Chris, Philip, British American Security Information Council, October, “NATO Nuclear Sharing: Opportunity for
Change?” BASIC Getting to Zero Papers Number 9, se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/92368/.../gtz09.pdf)
Despite the underlying post-Cold War…improve a relationship that is critical to global security.
We control the brink – nationalism is on the rise – increasing Russian aggression fuels the nationalist movement and
risks a wholesale takeover by nationalist forces
Khachaturian, winter 2009 – New School for Social Research
(Rafael, The Specter of Russian Nationalism)
More than ever before, nationalism is a…and beating the nationalist drum.
Nationalist takeover in Russia leads to US nuclear first-strike
Sharavin 07 – Director of the Institute for Military and Political Analysis
(Alexander, Will America Fight Russia?, July 20)(
Provoking the United States, Russia…to instigate a war yet.
Global escalation
Bostrom 3 – 8 – 02
US-Russia war is the greatest threat to the survival of humanity – makes extinction inevitable
Caldicott 06 – President of the Washington-based Nuclear Policy Research Institute
(Helen, president of the Washington-based Nuclear Policy Research Institute, Oct 18, Ottowa Citizen)
While lateral proliferation is indeed…a U.S. environmental group.
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And, successful US-Russian relations are key to preventing a nationalist takeover

Hamilton 03 – Director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
(Lee, “Dealing with the Russians,” June 22, The International Economy)
The United States and Russia…return to Russian expansionism.
Unilateral US reductions are a prerequisite to Russian reductions
Diakov et al 04, Ph.D., Director and Professor of Physics at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (Anatoli
Diakov, Eugene Miasnikov, Ph.D is a senior research scientist, Timur Kadyshev, Ph.D., senior staff scientist at the
Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, “Non-
Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Problems of Control and Reduction,”
http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/en/NSNW_en_v1b.pdf)
Russia views the US nuclear arms remaining…their owner’s national territories.
Removal of tactical nuclear weapons by the United States spurs Russia to do the same – this is the best path to insure
a bilateral disarmament and boost relations
Alexander and Millar 3 – Nuclear Expert and Co-Director of the Center of Counterterrorism Cooperation[
Brian and Alistair, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons”, published by Brassey’s, Inc., 2003]
Nuclear arms control between the United States and …irrelevance in the current international system
Advantage Two: NATO
Failure to reduce the nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe is creating a divde in the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization
Kristensen 6 - Director of the Nuclear Information Program at the Federation of American Scientists
(Hans, US Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Proposed Solution,
http://www.allacademic.commeta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/0/0/9/1/pages100915/p100915-1.php)
Formally, at least that is the rumor, NATO as…be withdrawn from Europe.
Removing our TNW’s wouldn’t cripple NATO- the plan is a step in NATO mission modernization - a refocus on non-
nuclear missions is critical to NATO stability
Kristensen 6 - Director of the Nuclear Information Program at the Federation of American Scientists
(Hans, US Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Proposed Solution,
http://www.allacademic.commeta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/0/0/9/1/pages100915/p100915-1.php)
Then there is the institutional justification…to a post-Cold War alliance.
NATO instability is inevitable without the plan - NATO will overstretch itself through its attempts to work with nuclear
missions - plan reverses this trend
International Analyst Network 2008
(“The Gap between nato missions and means is growing as we speak”. www.analyst-network.com/article.php?
art_id=1607)
Klaus Naumann: This is the key issue and…in the best possible way.
We solve NATO fears – plan is key to reassure NATO that the US nuclear security umbrella will exist post-plan
State News Service 2009
(The Minot Investigations: From Fixing Problems to Nuclear Advocacy, January,
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/01/schlesingerreport.php)
The TLAM and DCA are weapons that…from South Korea in 1991
And NATO is on the brink of collapse. Only the plan can solve these reasons
A) NATO is facing a legitimacy crisis, the key litmus test for the survival of the organization is redefining its strategic
posture
Davis 9 - Founding Director of NATO Watch
(The Shadow NATO Summit: Options for NATO - pressing the reset button on the strategic concept, March/April,
http://www.basicint.org/pubs/natoshadow.pdf)
There are good reasons for a fair degree of skepticism…NATO governments on the legality of this war.
B) Afghanistan – only a reversal of US nuclear doctrine and withdrawal of nonstrategic nuclear weapons can solve the
crisis
Lindborg 9 – Analyst at the British American Security Information Council and a Foreign Policy In Focus Contributor
(Chris, “The NATO Summit: Openings for a New Nuclear Posture,” Foreign Policy In Focus, April 9)
NATO's 60th anniversary summit comes…irrelevant to core and resource-heavy missions.
NATO is the lynchpin to victory in Afghanistan

Sare 7 - 6 – 09
(Harold, Action against terrorism in Central Asia, News Press, http://www.stillwater-
newspress.com/editorials/local_story_187102639.html)
What can the United States do?... the economy must be forged.
Failure in Afghanistan leads to spurs of radical instability throughout Central Asia
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Szayna and Oliker 5 - senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and policy analyst at RAND
Corporation
(Olga and Thomas, Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Implications for the U.S. Army,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/RAND_MR1598.sum.pdf)
The situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan…Central Asian and South Caucasus conflicts.
Nuclear war
Starr 1 - the founder and Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
(S. Frederick, THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM AND U.S. BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH THE NATIONS OF
CENTRAL ASIA, December 13th, http://www.cacianalyst.org/Publications/Starr_Testimony.htm)
However, this does not mean that US actions…that the U.S. cannot ignore.
Put your strat away – plan is key to prevent the rise of hostile nations, prevent allied prolif, prevent a collapse of
deterrence and spark a new age of prosperity – star this card, as it answers the warrants of their link evidence
State News Service 2009
(The Minot Investigations: From Fixing Problems to Nuclear Advocacy, January,
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/01/schlesingerreport.php)
The TLAM and DCA are weapons that are…essential and can and should be reassessed.
A2 Russian Bilateralism CP
Plan is a precondition to Russian removal
Higgin 5 - the organizer of the anti-nuclear Lakenheath Action Group
(Davida, US Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe; Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament;
http://www.cnduk.org/pages/binfo/nato2005.pdf
In addition, withdrawal is a precondition… technology around the world
Four reasons Russia says no

Arbman and Thornton 2005 (Gunnar and Charles, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons Part II: Technical Issues and
Policy Recommendations, February, Swedish Defence Research Agency, p74-75)
What, then, would it take for Russia… nuclear forces are well controlled.
Perm – do both – it solves
King, Lindborg, and Maxon 2008 (Jeff, Chris, and Philip, NATO Nuclear Sharing: Opportunity for Change?, p5-6)
NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements… in Russia’s tactical arsenal.
Engaging Russia risks validating Russian fears, opening up discussions to include more topics, and weakening NATO
Kulesa 09 – Polish Institute of International Affairs
(Lukasz, PISM Strategic Files #7, March, Reduce US Nukes in Europe to Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and nuclear).
A View from Poland. Page 3)
Should NATO engage Russia…to weaken the role of NATO.

7. Doesn’t solve NATO – unilateral withdrawal key to winning over Alliance leaders.
King, Lindborg, and Maxon 2008 (Jeff, Chris, and Philip, NATO Nuclear Sharing: Opportunity for Change?, p3)
Explanations for the low-key way… Alliance ties were weakening.
8. Counterplan fails – the counterplan will take too long and will shoulder too much weight – this is their solvency
advocate
Sokolsky 1 - Institute for National Strategic Studies
(Richard, February, Renovating US Strategic Arms Control Policy, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF178/sf178.html)
A problem with the traditional nuclear… more weight than they can bear.
Firebreak Mentality Advantage (Read Against West Georgia MS in octos)

TNWs make nuclear war thinkable by lowering the firebreak distinction between conventional and nuclear weapons—
this guarantees a failure of deterrence and makes global annihlation inevitable
Rajaraman 2 –Professor of Theoretical Physics, JNU
(R, Apr 22, “Ban battlefield nuclear weapons”, http://www.thehindu.com/2002/04/22/stories/2002042200431000.htm)
But there are very sound reasons for vigilantly… nuclear holocaust will be lost forever.
Withdrawal solves the thinkability of tactical use
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Derber and Schwartz 90 - Professor of Sociology, Boston College and Doctoral Student in Sociology
(Charles and William, The Nuclear Seduction, p 39-40)
The only technical factors that… the public debate in the United States.
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Illinois State Harris/Pickert (TNWs) [Kelly]
Ill. State HP Aff UNI
2AC
AT K: Northwestern answers
Orientalism FL
Your attempt to “preserve a culture” deploys identity categories that dehumanize the people of that culture.
Vargas, Llosa 2001
(Mario, “The Culture of Liberty: liberating influence of globalization” Foreign Policy (January 2001) :66
InfoTracOneFile) KZ
The notion of “cultural identity…of their own invention
The negative representation of women conflates Gender with sex, they assume all females are women and all males
as men, this kind of totalization goes on a global search to define all females as inherently feminine creating a
heterosexist matrix with gender binaries.
Butler, 1990
(Judith, “Gender Trouble: Feminism and the Subversion of Identity” 1990 3rd edition, Chapter 1 Subjects of
sex/gender/desire P.2.9 Jude is Maxine Elliot Professor in the Dpt of Rhetoric and Comparative Lit at Cal Berkley)
For the most part, feminists…as a female one.
Illinois State 1AC
1. Contention 1- inherency
U.S. forward deploys two hundred tactical nuclear weapons from Europe- but several recen pullouts gut link
uniqueness.
Pugwash Conference 09, “ Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for Disarmament?”,
-- the total number of US tactical… warheads assigned to them
2. And total pullout is inevitable- only question is when
Larsen 06, “The Future of US Non- Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Implications for NATO”,
-- in general however Europeans… a political decision that will end
3. and current trends indicate withdrawl will occur by 2020.
Larsen 06, “The Future of US Non- Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Implications for NATO”
Without such a decision…. Is now foreseeable
4. Contention 2:
the npt is about the collapse by the 2010 conference unless the U.S. ends nucleal sharing.
Avery 09, John, “The Way Is Open for a Nuclear Weapon-Free Northern Europe”
-- the strongest argument for… but NWFZs are steps along the road
5. The NPT is vital at stemming proliferation- it reshapes domestic politics of nuclear decision making forcing it to be a
disadvantageous pursuit.
Walsh 05, jim, “Lesson’s from Success: The NPT and the future of Non- Proliferation.”
-- the power of the NPT… centre of gravity had shifted.
6. Impact is 30 secenios for rapid horizontal prolif
AP 06, U.N. IDs 30 Nations with nuke potential”
-- the head of the UN nuclear agency… their programs for arms
7. Rapid Prolif sparks nuclear war
Stares 7, paul, “to ban the bomb, sign the peace”
-- of all the crises facing…. Leading to nuclear war
8. and unilateral US actions are vital on global proliferation- we shape the perception of disarm.
Wulf 08, Norman A. Wolf, Addressing the Challenges Facing NPT, June 16,2008.
I think we are at the point where countries….we see many other countries joining in the race .
9. withdrawl allows political spillover at NPT conference causing global incentive to fulfill commitments.
Beautty et all 06, Beatty, blank, domina…, “Advancing disarmament: Canada and North Atlantic Treaty Organiztion
Nuclear Policy” Fall 06
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-- American nuclear weapons in Europe undermine… potential nuclear weapons if it not seen as acting with double
standards.
10. Plan text: The USFG should remove its tactical nuclear warheads from Europe.
11. Iranian Dialouge:

Upcoming talks with iran are at a tipping poin- Obama will be forced to drop diplomacy if prospects don’t improve by
the end of September.
-- in its latest offer for talks…. There are others that might miss out on the hors d’ oeuvres
12. Lack of any tangible progress will make Israel strike- conflict is inevitable unless we act now.
Benhorin 8/31, Yitzhak Benhorin, “Wall Street Journal: Israel attack Iran” Ynetnews.com
-- The United States must curb the Iranian… the consequences of Israel acting in its own defense.
13. Israeli air strike sparks middle eastern war. Additionally tougher sanctions triggers middle eastern escalation.
Afrasiabi 9/4, Kaveh Afrasiabi, “US faces a tough choice on Iran” Asia Times Online.
-- This is the nub of the problem… and beyond as payback for the pain inflicted.
14. This causes global nuclear war
John Steinbach 02, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace” Center for Research on Globalization
-- meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal… conflict could trigger a world conflagration
15. Turkey can act as a mediator between Iran and the US- unique position could allow for better relations and further
dialogue.
Thai Press Reports 09, “Turkey/ Iran/ United States Turkey Would Consider Mediating Between Iran, US” L/N
-- turkey would consider serving as mediator… Iranian officials during his current visit.
16. Sadly Turkey’s nuclear sharing destroy it’s ability to be diplomatic mediator- withdrawal strengthens is legitimacy
soecifically in nuclear issues
Almond and Ingram 09, “Politics arounf US tactical nuclear weapons in European host states”
-- turkey’s location has added an element… would receive overwhelming public support
17. Prolif causes ext
Utgoff 02, “Proliferation, Missle Defense, and American Ambitions”
-- first the dynamics of getting… cities or even whole nations
18. more importantly nuclear sharinf with turkey serves as Iranin self- justification on nuclear progress as well as inhibit
Turkish input
Kibaroglu 05, Dec. 2005 Eurpoean Security Vol. 14 No.4 443-457
-- however the tide is turning…. May do so as well.
Illinois State HP Aff

Round # 7
vs Team: Wayne State University GP
Judge: Taylor, James
Plan Text
1ac w/ cites
AT: ASPEC
USFG is branch
Most real world
CX Checks
No brightline
Bad for ed
AT: T- Reduce and restrict
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Neg overlimits
Race to the bottom
None of their cards are NPT specific
AT: Health Care
1. Non-U: Health Care won’t pass, Conservative Democrats don’t support it.
Australian, Sep. 18
(“Senator’s health plan a bitter pill for President”
“The Senate is a different … or $US905 for a single person.”
2. Non-U Obama has no capital.

Washington Times 09 (“Democrats bear burnt of Obama’s rallying cry” Sep. 10th)
“having misplayed the sweltering … consensus – any consensus.”
3. Non-U Low popularity has usurped Obama’s political capital

Washington Post ‘09
(“Physics lessons: What Goes Up..”, Sep. 9)
“This cheered the small clump … than the average president.”
4. Health Care will not pass. No Bipartisanship middle ground possible.

The Adviser Sep. 17 (“U.S. Health Care Reform Vital for Obama”)
“In the United States, President … accident and emergency departments.”
5. Non-U Obama has no political capital. Media miss information has undermine his ability to get anything passed.
Mutzu sep. 17 (Dr. Paul, Nehanda Radio, “Zanu PF a party of Lies and Fears”)
Beyond measure, in the US, … politics ratcheted up.”
Bipartisanship Turn
TNW reform Popular with Republicans
Luger
Bipart Key to Helth
Conrad Key to health care
AT: Consult Japan CP
Case outweighs, turkey has a 2 week time frame
1. Perm: Do the plan and consult – not intrinsic – we garner no advatages off what is consulted and if neg can’t garner
specific reasons it has to be the plan – prefer the perm.
2. Japan wil say no – perceived as killing extended deterrence and leverage in negotiations.
Jimbo 09
(Ken Kimbo, “Japanese perceptions of Obama’s nuclear ‘twin commitments’”, March 5, japantimes.com)
“Japanese strategic-military specialist … Japan without fearing retaliatory forces.”
3. Perm do both: double bind

a. says yes and won’t car if we do the plan OR
b. There’s a possibility that Japan says no and CP can’t solve case. 1AC is a DA.
4. Theoretically legit
a. not intrinsic- this is world they defend if they say yes
b. CP is inherently conditional – they get both worlds of yes or no.
5. Counter interpretations
A. Resolved means to express by rolution and vote – this is the only definition that in the context of the resolution
Webster's 98
B. Should is used to express probability or expectation
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Webster’s II 84
6. Consut Pics Bad:
7. Consultation takes years – case functions as DA – Impacts happen prior.

Klingner ‘08
(Bruce, October 9, The Heritage Foundation, “Forging a New Era in the U.S.-Japan Alliance”)
“It is unlikely that there … dominated by an ascendant China.”
8. Alliance with South Korea will fill the Vacuum

Klingner ‘08
(Bruce, October 9, The Heritage Foundation, “Forging a New Era in the U.S.-Japan Alliance”)
“Japanese inertia, coupled with a new … reliable allies, such as South Korea.”
9. Obama already committed to frequently consultation with Japan.

Crowell 09
(Todd, Aug 11, “Japan’s Schizophrenia Toward Nuclear Weapons”, http://www.realclearworld.com)
“In July Kurt Campbell and … a kind of nuclear umbrella forum.”
AT: Transparency CP
Doesn’t solve case

Perm: do both,
Causes Generals to Coup
Coup leads to global war
Causes nuke terror
Nuke terror leads to extinction
AT: Heidegger
Perm: do both
Ferr ’04
Humans are natural violent
Alt dooms us to extinction

Santoni, ‘85
(Ronald E., Nuclear War, ed. Fox and Groarke, p. 156-7)
“To be sure, Fox seems… the final arbiter of our planet’s fate.”
Heidegger’s Alt is based on dogmatic authoritarianism that can never lead to positive change.
Thiele 03
(Leslie Paul, “The Ethics and Politics of Narrative,” Foucalt and Heidegger: Critical Encounters, editors: Rosenberg
and Milchman)
“The pursuit of knowledge continues … gods, and political authority.”
AT: German Politics

Concedes the aff causes the collapse of German nuclear power industry
Copenhagen matins credibility
Sun spots cause warming.
AT: Allied Prolif (German Specific)

German can’t get nukes absent power program, Plan kills power program (conceded on German Politics DA)
All triggers are inevitable, we will reduce TNWs by 2020
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1ar Strategy Notes
Allied Prolif DA:

TNW will be pulled out, nothing has a quicker timeframe
CA Large Card will be pulled out in 2020
Nuclear weapons have been pulled out in the past
CA: Turkey advantage will escalate
TNWs collapse relations
T:
Counter interp: reduce means restrict
Best: Limits, Education, and Competing Interp Bad -> race to bottom
Health Care:
No analysis on McCain/Luger turns. Policy brings Republicans on board.
Conrad is the most key center,
Health care will inevitably fail
Transparency CP:
Russia Turn
Result in military Coup ->micalc and war
->Terrorism: inadequate staff and security to protect nukes
2ar Strategy Notes
Transparency CP:
Politics is not a net benefit to CP
Generals care more about TNWs then Transparency
Independent nuclear war scenario, only net benefit in the round
Extend, even if attack is small retaliation will be devastating
German DA:
TNW kills relations, link turns the NATO impact
Terrorism supercharges the impact of NATO breakdown
Healthcare:
Internal fractions kill chances for health care
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Iowa Dhillon/Olson (TNWs) [Kelly]
Germany does not want to be consulted over the plan – they want the weapons removed unilaterally – giving them the
decision creates a huge debate within Germany.
Sokov 9
(Nikolai, Lead Author Senior Research Associate at CNS. Nikolai has a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan (1996)
and (the Soviet equivalent of a Ph.D.) Candidate of Historical Sciences degree from the Institute of World Economy
and International Relations (1986) “Tactical (Substrategic) Nuclear Weapons” Four Emerging Issues in Arms Control,
Disarmament, and Nonproliferation: Opportunities for German Leadership The James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/090717_german_leadership/german_leadership_1_cover.pdf)
U.S. TNW in Europe. U.S. officials have told their European....of these weapons.
This debate in Germany will spill over to domestic political disputes.

Michael Rühle April 2009 good and bad nuclear weapons berlin’s part in shaping nuclear reality Körber policy paper
http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/documents/Koerber_Policy_Paper_No_3.pdf
These guidelines for a shaping role which might be played by Germany should not blind us to the fact that this role will
be rather limited. On the one hand the ...to Germany’s own national security.30
The debate over TNWs threatens to break apart the coalition of Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats
– The plan removes the issue – the CP forces it.
Forbes 9-28-9 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/09/28/afx6938073.html
Guido Westerwelle, tipped ...Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons.
A stable coalition is critical to US- German relations.

Toledo Blade 10-2 http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091002/OPINION02/910020315/0/NEWS09
Ms. Merkel's Christian Democratic ... to America's benefit.
Coalition of Free Democrats and Christian Democrats is strong now – this coalition is critical to economic reform.
Michael Heise 10-1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574444810164458986.html?
mod=googlenews_wsj
Germany's electorate has spared the nation the specter ...must be removed.
This reform is critical to saving the German economy which is critical to the global economic recovery.
Baltimore Sun 9-29 http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.germany29sep29,0,1662855.story
Germany is Europe's ...spur economic investment.
Economic collapse will cause extinction

T.E. Bearden, Director of Association of Distinguished American Scientists, The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to
Solve It Quickly,” Space Energy Access Systems, 2000,
http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm
History bears out that desperate ...at least for many decades.
Contention Three: Russian War
2 Scenarios
A. Miscalc -- TNWs heighten the probability for unauthorized use, Russia-NATO military standoff, and terrorist
acquisition.
Saradzhyan 8.10
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(Simon, research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, “Tactical Nukes: A Strategic Asset or Future
Liability?” International Relations and Security Network)
One reason why Russia has bundled TNW control with so many ....countries in this process
START magnifies Russia’s threat perceptions -- As Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent is reduced, the likelihood of
using TNWs increases
Wood, ‘9
(David, Columnist for Politics Daily, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons, the Menace No One Is Talking About,” 7/8,
http://www.politicsdaily.com/ 2009/07/08/tactical-nuclear- weapons-the-menace-no-one-is- talking-about/)
Kristensen puts the number of deployed Russian weapons at 2,050 ... matter to strategists.'
B. Cooperation -- Tactical nukes preclude US-Russian cooperation—the plan shifts security away from a zero-sum
game
King ‘8
Jeff, Chris Lindborg, Philip Maxon, British American Security Information Council, October 2008, “NATO Nuclear
Despite the underlying post-Cold War thaw in NATO–Russian relations, Russia still views NATO’s ...critical to global
security
Umland ‘9
Dr. Andreas, teaches at the Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Upper Bavaria, 2/19/9, “NATO-Russia War: A
Scenario,”
A plain extrapolation of recent ...uclear super-powers.
A US-Russian nuclear war is the most probable scenario for extinction.
Bostrom, ‘2
(Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale,www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html]
A much greater existential ...potential permanently.
Acting before the NPR prevents NATO first use — solves “Cold War” mentality
Jones ‘9
(Sian – an activist with Aldermaston Women’s Peace Campaign, “NATO and nuclear weapons: a challenge across
Europe,” War Resisters’ International, The Broken Rifle, No. 81 http://www.wri-irg.org/node/6718)
It’s also time to prevent ...let's use it.
Plan increases Russian cooperation, guaranteeing greater transparency, and provides greater assurances of secured
arsenal
Kulesa ‘9
(Lukasz, “Reduce US Nukes in Europe to Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and Nuclear) A View from Poland,” The
Polish Institute of International Affairs, The Carnegie Endowment, March)
Should NATO engage ..NATO countries.
Iowa DO UNI Aff
Iowa DO Affirmative (Kiran Dhillon & Nat Olson)
Observation 1 – Nuclear sharing
US keeps weapons on bases of non-nuclear states in Europe- this violates the NPT.
Kristensen 8
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(Hans M., Federation of American ScientistsUSAF Report: “Most” Nuclear Weapon Sites In Europe Do Not Meet US
Security Requirements http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/06/usaf-report-“most”-nuclear-weapon-sites-in-europe-do-not-
meet-us-security-requirements.php)
The number and ... controversial arrangement
And disputes will continue over nuclear sharing. Cuts will inevitably come by 2020.
Larsen 6
(Jeffrey A. - PhD, “The Future of U.S. Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Implications for NATO – Drifting Toward
the Foreseeable Future,” NATO Public Diplomacy Division, October 31)
It appears that the United States maintains its nuclear weapons in Europe primarily because it thinks its European
allies want it to continue to do so. The European DCA states, on the other hand, remain committed to the nuclear
mission largely because they think the United States expects them to do so, remaining reluctant partners in the DCA
mission. There is no consensus on the need for nuclear weapons in the Alliance. Both sides are talking past one
another—or more accurately, not talking... is now foreseeable.
Now is the key time to act.
Jones 9
(Sian – an activist with Aldermaston Women’s Peace Campaign, “NATO and nuclear weapons: a challenge across
Europe,” War Resisters’ International, The Broken Rifle, No. 81)
Even NATO admit they're ... of weapons of mass destruction, let's use it.
And nuclear sharing will soon disappear its just a question of how.
Kristensen 5
(Hans M., U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe pt 2 /Natural Resources Defense Council, 2005
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro_pt2.pdf)
As a result of these developments,.. will end it.
Advantage 1 – Terrorism
Attacks coming – Al Qaeda’s regrouping
Kimery 8/7
(Anthony L., Homeland Security Today, "Al Qaeda seen as the primary terrorist threat for many years", August 7th,
2009, http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9715/150/)
“Adaptive and highly resilient,”...bin Laden’s “whereabouts.”
1AC V 1.0
European nuclear bases do not protect tactical nuclear weapons sufficiently.
Kristensen 8
(Hans M., Federation of American Scientists USAF Report: “Most” Nuclear Weapon Sites In Europe Do Not Meet US
The final report of the investigation... deployments, and illnesses can cause shortfalls.
US bases are much safer than European bases.
Kristensen 8
(Hans M., Federation of American ScientistsUSAF Report: “Most” Nuclear Weapon Sites In Europe Do Not Meet US
The main implication of ... bureaucrats might claim.
And, European storage of nuclear weapons is uniquely vulnerable to terrorist theft and attack.
Kristensen 5
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After the terrorist attacks ... (BRAC) process.
Terrorists can and will acquire nuclear material now
Speice 6
(Patrick, J.D. Candidate 2006, Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND
RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, Feb, l/n)
The September 11, 2001,... nuclear capabilities.
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction even if it is unsuccessful
Sid-Ahmed 4
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, August 26 – September 1, 2004, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line,
We have reached... infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
And, bioterrorism causes extinction
Ochs 2
Richard J Ochs, 6-9-2002, has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine and is
past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task
force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons
Must Be Abolished Immediately,” p http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction...HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
Advantage 2 – NPT Conference
Nuclear sharing weakens the NPT and the cornerstone of the non-prolif regime
King et al 9
(Jeff, Chris Lindborg, & Philip Maxon, “NATO Nuclear Sharing: Opportunity for Change? BASIC No 9)
Belgium, Germany, Italy, ...security dividends.
The practice of nuclear sharing motivates other states to deploy weapons in “third nations.”
Van der Zwaan 9

Bob, 12 January, Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for Disarmament? An International Workshop of the Pugwash
Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995 Antwerp, Belgium, 21-23 November 2008
Rapporteur http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/time_for_disarmament.htm
Continuing the practice ... own arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons.
Ending Nuclear sharing reinvigorates the 2010 NPT review conference.
Anthony 8
(Dr. Ian, The Future of Nuclear Weapons in NATO Research Coordinator, SIPRI 4 February 2008
http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/stockholm/06123.pdf)
Opening a new evaluation... the NPT context.
And, the ending nuclear sharing strengthens the conference. Plan overwhelms any alternate causalities.
- Korean peninsula - CTBT
- Iran - FMCT
- Indo-Pak
Van der Zwaan 9
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(Bob, 12 January, Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for Disarmament? An International Workshop of the Pugwash
Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995 Antwerp, Belgium, 21-23 November 2008
Rapporteur http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/time_for_disarmament.htm)
Some may argue that withdrawing... non-nuclear weapon states.
The NPT is on the brink of collapse. Successful Conference key to prevent arms race
New Scientist 9
(“Thanks for the blast, North Korea,” 05/30, Vol 202 Issue 2710 p. 3)
It may sound perverse,...the arms race could be unstoppable.
Rapid prolif cascades.
Anthony 8
In this regard,... international security.
Prolif makes nuclear war inevitable – the terminal impact is extinction
Taylor 2
Stuart Jr., National Journal senior writer, contributing editor at Newsweek, September 16, Legal Times, “Worry about
Iraq’s intentions, but focus on the bigger threat: nuclear weapons controlled by any terrorist or rogue state,” p. 60
Unless we get serious about stopping proliferation... Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Advantage 3 – NATO Cohesion
The fight over nuclear sharing is inevitable
Tertrais 9
(Bruno, The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Fundación Real Instituto Elcano, Madrid, 2009 http://74.125.95.132/search?
q=cache:uoISewtcAa4J:www.realinstitutoe…
+group+sharing+dual+capable&cd=22&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari)
It is the contention...is also mentioned.
NATO is on the brink of collapse – struggling in Afghanistan
Lindborg 9
(Chris – a Foreign Policy In Focus contributor, is an analyst at the British American Security Information Council
(BASIC), “The NATO Summit: Openings for a New Nuclear Posture,” Foreign Policy In Focus, April 9)
NATO's 60th anniversary summit ... to focus on Afghanistan.
Lindborg 9
(Chris, 4-2, Foreign Policy In Focus contributor, is an analyst at the British American Security Information Council
(BASIC). The NATO Summit: Openings for a New Nuclear Posture Foreign Policy in Focus April 2, 2009 Lexis)
Devising a new posture is beyond the... to start changing this dynamic.
Ending nuclear-sharing, prevents prolif, the collapse of the NPT, and NATO
Butcher & Butler 8

(Martin & Nicola, “NATO’s Nuclear Sharing: A Threat to the NPT,” Reachingcriticalwill.org)
These nuclear weapons sharing arrangements...become a
nuclear weapon free zone on 27 March 2008.
NATO is crucial to achieve victory in Afghanistan and stabilize Central Asia

Sare 9
(Harold, studied, conducted research and taught university courses focused on the region of which he writes, and has
lived and traveled in that area, specifically in India)
http://www.stillwater-newspress.com/editorials/local_story_187102639.html, July 6
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We must continue to work with NATO... the government and the economy must be forged.
Stability in Afghanistan is key to prevent escalation of conflict in Central Asia

Lal 6
(Rollie, political scientist at Rand and PhD in intl studies from Johns Hopkins, “Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors.
Security and Commerce at the Crossroads,” Rand: Project Air Force, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?
AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
The Asian states...security interests.
This is the most likely scenario for nuclear war

Blank 2K
(Stephen, prof at Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, “American Grand Strategy and the
Transcaspian Region,” World Affairs, v163n2, Infotrac)
Thus many structural conditions...the situation.
Plan Text - The United States federal government should eliminate its nuclear sharing missions. We’ll clarify.
Observation 2 – Solvency
The US should remove nuclear weapons from host bases.
Kristensen 5
Short of reducing ... returned to the United States.
Removal to US bases solves
Tertrais 9
(Bruno, The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Fundación Real Instituto Elcano, Madrid, 2009 http://74.125.95.132/search?
q=cache:uoISewtcAa4J:www.realinstitutoe…
+group+sharing+dual+capable&cd=22&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari)
If there is stronger pressure...mentioned above.
Observation 3 – Disads Non-Unique
Weapons removed from many countries:
-- Germany, Italy, & Turkey
FAS 5
(Federation of American Scientists, “U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe,” 2005,
http://www.nukestrat.com/us/afn/nato.htm)
The report reveals ...Netherlands.
-- Italy
Anthony 8
One piece of information...also in Italy.27
-- More evidence
Anthony 8
One piece of information...not already been moved.
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- Greece
Martin 6
(Matthew, “NATO Nuclear Weapons: The International Face of US Nuclear Policy,” 2006 International Law
Symposium, The Stanley Foundation)
In 2006, the United States... of the US nuclear arsenal.
-- South Korea
Larsen 6
(Jeffrey A. - PhD, “The Future of U.S. Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Implications for NATO – Drifting Toward
the Foreseeable Future,” NATO Public Diplomacy Division, October 31)
The United States... in the 1990s.82
-- UK & Germany
Kristensen 8
(Hans M., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Withdrawn From the United Kingdom
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/06/us-nuclear-weapons-withdrawn-from-the-united-kingdom.php)
The United States ...European countries.
-- And, No missile defense
Peterson 9/17
(Chris, “US Will Shelve Bush-Era Nuclear Missile Shield Plan, WSJ Says,” 2009, Bloomberg)
The U.S....with the matter.
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Southern Cal Do/Padrta (TNWs) [Kelly]
We have read 3 advantages - the Russia scenario is available under USC HL. The other two are available below :)
Plan text:
TEXT: The United States federal government should remove its nuclear explosive devices currently stored in Belgium,
Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey.
1ac cites:
TEXT: The United States federal government should remove its nuclear explosive devices currently stored in Belgium,
Contention 1: Thinkability
Tactical nuclear weapons constitute a blurred line between conventional and nuclear capabilities. Our military doctrine
treats them simply as a phase of war’s escalation while ignoring what use of nuclear weapons actually means
Turner 2003 [Stansfield, Former director of Central Intelligence, Professor- University of Maryland, Tactical Nuclear
Weapons- Emerging Threats in an Evolving Security Environment, Foreword, Page viii]
The second reason …very thin tightrope.
This notion of thinkability inevitably invites use of our forward-deployed weapons. Nuclear capabilities become merely
a tool in the box of equally permissible capabilities
Chossudovsky 2006 [Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Center for
Research on Globalization, February 22, Is the Bush Administration Planning A Nuclear Holocaust?,
http://www.countercurrents.org/us-chossudovsky190107.htm]
At no point since…commanders in the "war theatre".
Coupled with the faith in technology to protect us from the omniscient nuclear danger, the growing willingness to use
TNWs makes miscalculation inevitable
Blair 2007 [Bruce, founder and president of the World Security Institute, “A Rebuttal of the U.S. Statement on the Alert
Status of U.S. Nuclear Forces”, Center for Defense Information, November 6, p.
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?documentid=4135]
Both the United States …confrontation between them.
Contention 2 – Imperial Order

Forward-deployments are a tool of NATO-US aggression. Our nuclear posture is part of a double-standard based on
notions of nonproliferation that result in pre-emptive nuclear strikes
Chossudovsky, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Center for Research on
Globalization. 2007 [Michael, September 27, US, NATO and Israel Deploy Nukes directed against Iran,
http://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/us-nato-and-israel-deploy-nukes-directed-against-iran/]
Several Western European …threatens the future of humanity.
These nuclear bases are critical to extending the reach of US militarism and creating a foothold for US economic and
political hegemony
Lutz 2009 [Catherine, Watson Institute professor (research) and holds a joint appointment with the Department of
Anthropology, The Bases of Empire: The Global Struggle Against U.S. Military Posts, p. 111-112]
CAAB and the Lakenheath Action Group …had rights of access.19
This underscores the identity of NATO as a tool of imperialism- Its desire to expand creates cycles of insecurity leading
to violent interventions. Despite the end of the Cold war, it moves eastward in an attempt to contain the Russian threat
using military and economic dominance.
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Cohen 1998 [Mitchel, co-editor of Green Politix, the national newspaper of the Greens/Green Party, February 19th,
Against NATO’s war in Yugoslavia, BOMBING THE BRIDGE TO THE 21ST CENTURY: Behind NATO's
Bombardment of Yugoslavia, http://www.thing.net/~oliveworks/cohen2.html
The subsequent "humanitarian" …action [i.e., the UN] cannot be orchestrated." (NY Times, March 8, 1992)
The intersection of conservative geopolitical ordering and neoliberal exploitation makes extinction inevitable. We must
reject the kill to save mentality inherent in NATO's posture. The most violent acts in history are linked to expendibility
and extermination of the other.
Santos 2003 [Boaventura de Sousa, leading Portuguese social theorist, the director of the Center for Social Studies at
the University of Coimbra, Collective Suicide?, Bad Subjects, Issue #63, April 2003,
http://bad.eserver.org/issues/2003/63/santos.html]
According to Franz Hinkelammert, … of horror and destruction.
We should not underestimate the power of TNWs currently deployed in Europe – they are a pillar of NATO unity and
deterrence posture
Pincus, ‘9 [Walter, 1/9, The Washington Post, “Panel Urges Keeping U.S. Nuclear Arms in Eruope,” Debbie]
The United States should… administration will be appointing over here.
Fortunately, the plan disables the pathways of NATO secrecy and violence by eliminating its symbolic value
Millar 2003 [Alistair, director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism cooperation, teaches at the Elliott School of
International Affairs at The George Washington University, Tactical Nuclear Weapons- Emerging Threats in an
Evolving Security Environment, Russia, NATO, an Tacital nuclear weapons after 11 september, page 90]
NATO posits that it heavily …public awareness and concern.
Finally, removing TNWs pulls the rug from under NATO – it undermines the Alliance’s ability to utilize its theater
nuclear deterrent to justify “out of area” expansion
Polser 2004 [Brian, United States Air Force Major and Masters in National Security Affairs from the Naval
Postgraduate School, “Theater Nuclear Weapons in Europe: The Contemporary Debate”, Strategic Insights, Vol. 3
Issue 9, September]
U.S. and Allied …nuclear roles and responsibilities.
Contention 3: Solvency
Finally, even if the aff doesn’t solve completely it’s not a reason to reject – posing the possibility of eliminating nuclear
weapons is enough
Scoblic 2008 [J. Peter, executive editor of the New Republic, “Disarmament Redux”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
March/April, p. Metapress]
Of course, in a world …question of disarmament is broached.
Fortunately, in the face of a military nuclear industrial complex that garners its power from silence and the illusion of
invulnerability, the aff’s elimination of nuclear weapons disrupts the narrative of the monolithic, impermeable nuclear
industry
Lutz 2009 [Catherine, Watson Institute professor (research) and holds a joint appointment with the Department of
Anthropology, The Bases of Empire: The Global Struggle Against U.S. Military Posts, p. 101]
The fact that … people to believe (Haraway 1991).
We do not need to abandon the system altogether – we simply need a few committed intellectuals to maintain
persistent pressure against the nuclear complex
Mello 2006 (Greg, executive director of the Los Alamos Study Group, "The Way is the Goal - Disarmament Now!"
Nuclear Age Peace Foundation's International Law Symposium p
http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/programs/international-law/annual-symposium/2006_papers/mello-greg_napf-
2006-international-law-symposium.pdf)
U.S. society is in the…we have enough people.
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The plan is a critical starting point for raising public consciousness activism. Provides the impulse for an upwelling of
visibility and support that is critical to keeping militarism in check
Wittner 2004 [Lawrence S., professor of history at the State University of New York-Albany, “The power of protest: the
campaign against nuclear weapons was not simply an ideological movement; it was a potent political force.”, Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists Vol. 60 Iss. 4, p. Expanded Academic]
The bad news is that … before, it can do again.
Only this form of resistance against US nuclear dominance can strike a blow against the forces of militarism that have
become the unspoken norm of American politics. This really is our only hope of avoiding annihilation
Lichterman 2003 (Andrew, policy analyst for Western States Legal Foundation, "Missiles of Empire: America's 21st
Century Global Legions" Western States Legal Foundation, Information Bulletin, p.
www.wslfweb.org/docs/missiles03.pdf )
Today, however, both…more of nuclear dominance. 74
The aff is good thinkin’ – Advocating workable ideas provides hope and strength for anti-nuclear movements -- in a
world where pessimism and cynicism are the norm we must seize our opportunity and take steps towards getting rid of
nuclear weapons.
Roche 2007 [Honorable Douglas, chairman of the Middle Powers Initiative, “Turning Pessimism into Optimism: A
Growing Consensus on Nuclear Disarmament”, Address to German Foreign Policy Conference “New Ways in Arms
Control and Disarmament”, March 4-5, p. http://www.gsinstitute.org/mpi/pubs/03_05_07_Roche_Berlin.pdf]
What there is a shortage … lie the seeds of opportunity.
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Southern Cal Hernandez/Lazarevic (TNWs) [Kelly]
Gonzaga Intel:
Gonz Aff
Round 1- aff v. Cal GP
The United States federal government should remove its nuclear explosive devices currently stored in Belgium,
Advantage One is Russia:
Recent dialogue between the US and Russia excludes discussion over tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe
Global Security Newswire 8.5 (Martin Matishak, “U.S. Could Pull Back Europe-Based Nukes, State Department Official
Says,”)
U.S. President Barack … added without elaborating.
And – Mutual cuts in forwardly deployed TNW waned after the early 90s – no new measures have been taken
Kimball and Boese 2006 (Daryl, Executive Director of Strategic Arms Control and Policy, and Wade, Research
Director, “The Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs) on Tactical Nuclear Weapons At a Glance,”
March,http://www.armscontrol.org/ factsheets/pniglance)
Near the Cold War’s … the early 1990s.
Scenario One: Aggressive Risk Taking

TNWs are both the most likely weapon Russia will use in a nuclear confrontation and the most accident-prone –
Russia will extend the role of its TNWs to equalize the conventional weakness – this heightens the probability for
unauthorized use, Russia-NATO military standoff, and terrorist acquisition.
Saradzhyan 8.10 (Simon, research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, “Tactical Nukes: A Strategic
Asset or Future Liability?” International Relations and Security Network)
One reason why … or non-state actors.
We control uniqueness – Distrust keeps building with every inch of NATO encroachment
Friedman 8.31 (George, Chief Executive of Stratfor, “The Western View of Russia,” Stratfor Global Intelligence Report,
http://hosted. verticalresponse.com/442059/ 20b54a6fba/1641503413/ d2609fb2e0/)
While … policies they nurtured.
Scenario Two: Strategic deterrence

The status quo locks in a growing imbalance between Russian strategic and tactical nukes – As both sides reduce
their strategic arsenals, Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent becomes threatened and the likelihood of using TNWs
increases
Wood, 9’ (David, Columnist for Politics Daily, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons, the Menace No One Is Talking About,” 7/8,
Almost nothing is known … to matter to strategists.''
This accelerates Russia’s fear that the US could escalate a successful first strike – causes Russia to transition to an
unstable posture
MOSHER 2003 (David E., Senior Policy Analyst @ RAND, Beyond the Nuclear Shadow: A Phased Approach for
Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S-Russian Relations, Pg. 31-32)
When the perceived …could break down.
High-Alert posture makes unauthorized and accidental use only a matter of time
Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S-Russian Relations, Pg. 21)
Today, the United States …to launch them.
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This independently results in miscalculation
Trenin 2008 (Dmitri, chairman of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Expert Council and director of the Center’s Foreign
Policy and Security Program, 1.10. “Russia’s Coercive Diplomacy” January, CEIP, __http://www.carnegie.ru/en/
pubs/briefings/PB%20_Jan_10_1_ 2008_Eng_web.pdf__)
In this context, Russia’s “…to America and Europe.
Extinction
Shorr, expert with Foreign Policy In Focus , 2k1
[Ira. “Nukes Remain on Hair Trigger” October 10, __http://www.fpif.org/ commentary/0110nuke_body.html__]
While these actions helped … could destroy our nations."
The plan solves:

TNWs have no US removal of its TNWs from Europe is key to Russian reciprocity over its own TNWs
Millar and Crandall 2002 (Alistair, Vice President and Director of the Washington, D.C. office of the Fourth Freedom
Forum and Kathryn, Analyst at BASIC focused on nuclear weapons issues, “AS NATO GETS BIGGER, CAN IT
DOWNSIZE NUCLEAR RISKS?” Fall 2002, BASIC.org)
A second reason … anxieties on all sides.
The plan is a critical concession to Russia – First – it induces Russia to reciprocate on TNW reductions and Second –
it builds confidence and trust towards broader nuclear cooperation
Cortright & Gabbitas 2003 (David Andrea Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Emergent Threats in an Evolving Security
Environment, ed: Alexander & Millar. Pg. 145)
The second factor that … difficult to accomplish.
And – this cooperation is key to averting war

Which of the 10 options examined in the previous chapter show themost promise? And how should they be
incorporated into a strategyfor improving nuclear safety? In our view, a successful … settle a dispute.
Empirically US cuts resulted in reciprocal concessions by Russia – Gorbachev made similar concessions a week later
– affirmed by Yeltsin
Beach 2004 (Hugh, Committee member of the Centre for Defence Studies, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons:Europe's
Redundant WMD,” Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 77, May/June)
The end of the Cold … the French inventory.15
Advantage Two: The Evil Alliance

NATO is a tool of imperialism- Its desire to expand creates cycles of insecurity leading to violent interventions. Despite
the end of the Cold war, it moves eastward in an attempt to contain the Russian threat using free-market principles and
military dominance.
Cohen, co-editor of Green Politix, the national newspaper of the Greens/Green Party, 98’ [Mitchel, February 19th,
Against NATO’s war in Yugoslavia, BOMBING THE BRIDGE TO THE 21ST CENTURY: Behind NATO's
Bombardment of Yugoslavia, http://www.thing.net/~ oliveworks/cohen2.html
Hundreds of thousands … as equally expendable.
The intersection of conservative geopolitical ordering and neoliberal exploitation makes extinction inevitable. The most
violent acts in history are linked to expendibility and extermination of the other.
Santos, leading Portuguese social theorist, the director of the Center for Social Studies at the University of Coimbra, 3’
[Boaventura de Sousa, Collective Suicide?, Bad Subjects, Issue #63, April 2003, http://bad.eserver.org/issues/
2003/63/santos.html]
According to Franz Hinkelammert, … of horror and destruction.
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TNWs are the pillar to NATO unity and deterrence posture

Pincus, ‘9 [Walter, 1/9, The Washington Post, “Panel Urges Keeping U.S. Nuclear Arms in Eruope,” Debbie]
The United States should … be appointing over here.
First use policy enables NATO to expand and attack enemies

Mendelsohn, ’99 [Jack, July/August, Arms Control Association, “NATO's Nuclear Weapons: The Rationale for 'No First
Use,’” http://www.armscontrol.org/ act/1999_07-08/jmja99, Debbie]
The 19 nations … to its frontiers.
NATO is the critical vehicle to US global aggression – collapses significantly impedes US unilateral aggression.
Jackson, President of the US Committee On NATO, 99’ [Bruce Pitcairn Jackson, The Conservative Case for NATO,
Policy Review (April-May 1999), Heritage Foundation]
NATO is at the…a very light hand.
aff vs. Cal BP

Gonzaga round 4
The United States federal government should remove its nuclear explosive devides currently stored in Belgium,
Advantage One is Russia:

Recent dialogue between the US and Russia excludes discussion over tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe
Global Security Newswire 8.5 (Martin Matishak, “U.S. Could Pull Back Europe-Based Nukes, State Department Official
Says,”)
http://www.webcitation.org/5jkDu4JRW
And – Mutual cuts in forwardly deployed TNW waned after the early 90s – no new measures have been taken
Kimball and Boese 2006 (Daryl, Executive Director of Strategic Arms Control and Policy, and Wade, Research
Director, “The Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs) on Tactical Nuclear Weapons At a Glance,”
March,http://www.armscontrol.org/ factsheets/pniglance)
Scenario One: Aggressive Risk Taking
TNWs are both the most likely weapon Russia will use in a nuclear confrontation and the most accident-prone –
Russia will extend the role of its TNWs to equalize the conventional weakness – this heightens the probability for
unauthorized use, Russia-NATO military standoff, and terrorist acquisition.
Saradzhyan 8.10 (Simon, research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, “Tactical Nukes: A Strategic
Asset or Future Liability?” International Relations and Security Network)
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=103631
http://www.webcitation.org/5jkE3MnGR
We control uniqueness – Distrust keeps building with every inch of NATO encroachment
Friedman 8.31 (George, Chief Executive of Stratfor, “The Western View of Russia,” Stratfor Global Intelligence Report,
http://hosted. verticalresponse.com/442059/ 20b54a6fba/1641503413/ d2609fb2e0/)
Failure to safety store and secure nuclear weapons in Russia results in terrorist acquisition and use – US response
guarantees nuclear escalation
Speice 2006 (Patrick, J.D. Candidate at Marshall-Wythe School of Law at William & Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND
NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb3587/is_4_47/ai_n29257903/
Scenario Two: Strategic deterrence
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The status quo locks in a growing imbalance between Russian strategic and tactical nukes – As both sides reduce
their strategic arsenals, Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent becomes threatened and the likelihood of using TNWs
increases
Wood, 9’ (David, Columnist for Politics Daily, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons, the Menace No One Is Talking About,” 7/8,
This accelerates Russia’s fear that the US could escalate a successful first strike – causes Russia to transition to an
unstable posture
Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S-Russian Relations, Pg. 31-32)
High-Alert posture makes unauthorized and accidental use only a matter of time
War with Russia real big:
Aggressive and autocratic foreign policy will cause war

Blank 2007 (Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S.
Army War College, “Russian Democracy, Revisited” Spring,__http://www.securityaffairs.
org/issues/2007/12/blank.php__)
This independently results in miscalculation

Trenin 2008 (Dmitri, chairman of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Expert Council and director of the Center’s Foreign
Policy and Security Program, 1.10. “Russia’s Coercive Diplomacy” January, CEIP, __http://www.carnegie.ru/en/
pubs/briefings/PB%20_Jan_10_1_ 2008_Eng_web.pdf__)
Extinction
Shorr, expert with Foreign Policy In Focus , 2k1
[Ira. “Nukes Remain on Hair Trigger” October 10, __http://www.fpif.org/ commentary/0110nuke_body.html__]
The plan solves:
TNWs have no US removal of its TNWs from Europe is key to Russian reciprocity over its own TNWs
Millar and Crandall 2002 (Alistair, Vice President and Director of the Washington, D.C. office of the Fourth Freedom
Forum and Kathryn, Analyst at BASIC focused on nuclear weapons issues, “AS NATO GETS BIGGER, CAN IT
DOWNSIZE NUCLEAR RISKS?” Fall 2002, BASIC.org)
The plan is a critical concession to Russia – First – it induces Russia to reciprocate on TNW reductions and Second –
it builds confidence and trust towards broader nuclear cooperation
Cortright & Gabbitas 2003 (David Andrea Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Emergent Threats in an Evolving Security
Environment, ed: Alexander & Millar. Pg. 145)
And – this cooperation is key to averting war

Empirically US cuts resulted in reciprocal concessions by Russia – Gorbachev made similar concessions a week later
– affirmed by Yeltsin
Beach 2004 (Hugh, Committee member of the Centre for Defence Studies, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons:Europe's
Redundant WMD,” Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 77, May/June)
Advantage 2: Non-Proliferation Good
Forward deployment of tacticals is an explicit NPT violation- justifies myriad scenarios for regional destabilization
Acronym Institute, 7’ [NATO and Nuclear WeaponsNATO's nuclear sharing: A cold war anachronism that undermines
the NPT,http://www.acronym.org.uk/ nato/npt2007.htm]
U.S. compliance is the key signal for NPT legitimacy- slows proliferation
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Wulf, Former Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation, 8’ [Norman, 6/16, Federal News
Service, Amrs Control Association Conference; subject; addressing the challenged facing the NPT, Nexis]
Shit blows up.

Utgoff, 2 [Victor, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis,
"Proliferation, Missile Defense, and American Ambitions," Survival, Summer, p. 87-90]cn
Its not a question of whether the nonprolif regime is effective- the perception of adherence prevents the fear of
proliferation
Dunn 2009 (Senior VP, Science Applications International Corp, served as assistant director of the U.S. Arms Control
and Disarmament Agency – ‘9 Lewis, THE NPT Assessing the Past, Building the Future, Nonproliferation Review, Vol.
16, No. 2, July)
That’s specifically true for Japan- They’ll rearm if the NPT isn’t credible
Rublee 2009 (Ph.D. in Political Science, Assistant Professor of Government and World Affairs at the University of
Tampa, rmer Intelligence Officer for the Defense Intelligence Agency, Maria, The Future of Japanese Nuclear Policy,
April,http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/ si/2009/Apr/rubleeApr09.asp)
That’s the quickest timeframe to proliferation

Ratner, 1/17/03 [Ellen, World Net Daily Executive Report]
And it’s the most probable scenario for nuclear war

Knight Ridder 3-10-2K (“Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”)
We Solve:
First, TNWs are the litmus test for the NPT- an unsuccessful 2010 review gaurentees the collapse of nonprolif norms
Avery, 9’ [John, Associate Professor of Theoretical Chemistry, H.C. Ørsted Institute, University of Copenhagen, “The
Way Is Open for a Nuclear Weapon-Free Northern Europe”, Active Nonviolence, January 22, p. **__http://www.active-
nonviolence. org/?p=196__**]
Four more reasons
1. Prevents emulation of nuclear sharing

2. Prevents 2010 bickering
3. Article VI compliance
4. NATO credibility
van der Zwaan , Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of
Government, 9’ [1/12, Bob van der Zwaan, Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Time for Disarmament? An International
Workshop of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995 Antwerp, Belgium, 21-
23 November 2008 Report (d.d. 12 January 2009)]
A2: Deterrence DA
Us presence gaurentees no escalation

LA Times Feb 14
“Washington has been South Korea’s” “and can deal with any threats”
Removing TNWs won’t à turkey prolif

Backmann and Jauvert 7 “The Middle East’s Dr. Strangloves”
“And when we say to Suat” “the Armenians, Moscow’s allies”
TNWs on battlefields increase the risk of nukes and not key to underground bunkers
Woolf 9 “Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons”
“The Bush administration argued that its” “deterrent in future conflict”
No Link
States News Service “The Minot Investigations: From Fixing Problems to Nuclear advocacy”
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“The TLAM and DCA are weapons that are” “and can and should be reassessed”
Nukes in Europe are unnecessary for deterrence

Foreign Affairs 7 “Nuclear Insecurity Subtitle: Correcting Washington’s Dangerous Posture”
“the notion of dissuasion is even more” “it deserves no role in U.S. policy”
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Trinity Bankey/Hart (TNWs) [Kelly]
Team Name: Trinity BH

Round #3
vs Team: Wake CaCr
Judge: Dylan Keenan
Plan Text
The United States federal government should permanently and verifiably remove its B61s from Europe
1ac w/ cites
Econ, Cooperation, Energy Imperialism ADVs on Wiki, new “removal now” args on Wiki also
2AC Tricks, Add-Ons

Terrorism Add-On
Turkey Soft-Power Add-On (Middle East impact)

Russia Bilat –
Bunch of say no args with various warrants, including national pride, security purposes, and economic purposes
Major arg was a say no and case turn arg – doing it bilaterally à Russian meddling in NATO affairs, makes Russia feel
like an enemy, prevents relations
Allied Prolif –
Allies want them gone
No German Prolif
No Turkish prolif
Labs DA –
Budget cuts for TNWs now
Plan increases Obama’s pol cap
1AR Strategy Notes

Goes for defense versus most of our offense/case outweighs DAs/Net-benefits, doesn’t cover unilat bad DAs on the
bilat CP
2AR Strategy Notes
Spends a great deal of time on explaining each solvency deficit to the CP, goes again for defense on the net-benefits
Kentucky Intel
Rd #1: Aff Vs. Libery GT
AT: Politics
1. One instance Squo - ignore health care - sustain at health
2. Won't Pass Now
A. Lobbyists 10/2
B. Democratic unity & no bipart
3. USFG Eliminate and Pass Health - not a test of opportunity costs
Not competitive
4. No political capital - olympics
5. Say no - assume pushing - the plan is proposed and loss
6. Econ crisis inevitable - preserving undermines dignity '5
7. Immediate
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8. Doesn't like plan - won't push

9. Econ decline doesn't cause backlash or war
10. Growth leads to extinction - barrey '8
AT: Deterence Bad
1. Incoherent - no incentive to attack - rooted in our own historical - if it Is true - US Econ to global econ - won't attack
2. Deterence is de-stabalizing Now '6
3. Deterence --> MIRV
4. Nuclear War - Biden '6
5. Nuclear Deterence is Irrelevent '5
6. Accidental nuclear launch - peacetime vulnerability
7. No ev to justify Util - ethical key to greater good - ethics of the 1ac ought not should can escape techno --> nux War
RD 3
NATO Strategic Concept Review
Budget constraints will cause B61 withdrawal at the 2010 NATO Strategic Concept review
Meier, Ph.D., International Representative for the Arms Control Association and researcher with the Institute for Peace
Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, ‘6 (Oliver Meier, Ph.D., International Representative for
the Arms Control Association and researcher with the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the
University of Hamburg, “News Analysis: An End to U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe?” July/August,
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_07-08/NewsAnalysis) Bankey
NATO’s policy of basing U.AND possible revision of its nuclear doctrine.
U.S. pressure for withdrawal is inevitable; this leads to NATO demands on Russian verification
Meier ‘9 (Oliver MeierAND 2009_04/NewsAnalysisNATO) Bankey
NATO officials concede that, as AND agreement with Russia on tactical weapons.
Unilateral reductions are key
Diakov, Ph.D., Director and Professor of Physics at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, et. al. ‘4 (Anatoli
Russia views the US nuclear arms AND consolidated within their owner’s national territories.
Even if weapons infrastructure isn’t removed, budget constraints will force virtual sharing.
Meier ‘6 (Oliver Meier, Ph.D., International Representative for the Arms Control Association and researcher with the
Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, “News Analysis: An End to U.S.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe?” July/August, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_07-08/NewsAnalysis)
Bankey
Nevertheless, the current timetable means AND Europe as recently as February 2004.
Russia doesn’t trust virtual sharing
Meier ‘6 (Oliver Meier, Ph.D., International Representative for the Arms Control Association and researcher with the
Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, “News Analysis: An End to U.S.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe?” July/August, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_07-08/NewsAnalysis)
Bankey
Further, advocates of a denuclearized AND broader agreement on tactical nuclear weapons.
The Kremlin doesn’t believe reductions without verification
Blank ‘9 (Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the
U.S. Army War College, “Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?,” March,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=908) Bankey
Unfortunately these warnings have been proven AND . cuts represent official policy.200
Turkish proliferation is a myth—Turkey would never endure the economic and security implications of violating the
NPT
Al-Marashi, Ph.D., Associate Dean of International Relations at IE University, et. al. ‘9 (Ibrahim al-Marashi, Ph.D.,
Associate Dean of International Relations at IE School of Communication-IE University in Spain, Nilsu Goren, M.A.,
Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Turkish Perceptions and Nuclear Proliferation” Strategic
Insights, Volume VIII, Issue 2,
http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/publications/OnlineJournal/2009/Apr/marashiApr09.html)
By 2015, Turkey expects to AND low enriched uranium fuel.[56]
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UNLV Aff Disclosure

Plan: The United States Federal Government should permanently eliminate the role of deterrence for the United States
Federal Government’s nuclear arsenal.
Contention One: The Sacred and the Holy
Human communities are defined by the narratives they use to distinguish between self and other. Sacred orders define
themselves by a fixed transcendent idea of the human and seek to eradicate the profane other. Alternatively, holy
communities seek self-transcendence through the affirmation of the dignity of others through justice and compassion.
Fasching and deChant 2001 (Darrell AND Approach, Pp. 10) Burr
Human religiousness is defined by two AND share my identity and my stories.
Holy communities are produced through an alienated theology, which rejects the pretension towards certainty in our
own narratives, leaving us open to the transformative impact of the experiences of others. The apologetic theology of
sacred orders is a methodology of domination. Its foreclosure of the possibility of truth in difference condemns us to an
apocalyptic stalemate moving ever closer to human self-destruction.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J. AND Pp. 5-8) Burr
The best way to describe the AND apocalypse that such a path risks.
Contention Two: I am Become Death
Mutually Assured Destruction is the basis for distinguishing between sacred and profane. Through MAD we
unquestioningly succumb to the mythic power of the bomb as an excuse for ethical engagement. This technical
mystification forces upon us a demonic doubling whereby our preparation for the final apocalypse assures our own
destruction.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J., Professor of Religious Studies at University of South Florida, The Ethical Challenge of
Auschwitz and Hiroshima, Pp. 117-120) Bankey
In our nuclear policies we have AND the total darkness of planetary suicide.
The demonic double which emerges through the logic of deterrence will shut off the possibility of transcendence and
ensure ontological damnation.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J., AND Hiroshima,Pp. 92) Bankey
"Doubling," Lifton argued, AND created by its self-deception.
Arguments which sustain MADness restrain themselves to what Is and ignore the possibilities of what Ought to be.
Rejecting such logic for the world of Ought is necessary to reinvigorate ethical engagement.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J., Professor of Religious Studies at University of South Florida, The Ethical Challenge of
Auschwitz and Hiroshima, Pp. 132-133) Bankey
If ethics involves a mode of AND the utopian possibilities of the future.
Rejecting the false utopia MAD represents enables us to assert a value to human life in the name of a holy community.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J., AND Pp. 37-38) Bankey
If the utopianism of modern technology AND headed toward some literally apocalyptic destiny.
The plan is an affirmation of particularity and difference which refuses sacred orders in the name of the possibility of a
positive reading of interdependence. Arguments which assert the inevitability of the status quo are assertions to
sustain the sacred order.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J., AND Pp. 287-290) Burr
In the Christian case, as AND the utopian possibilities of the human.
Divorcing governmental policies from personal engagement cedes political control to technicism. This magnifies
doubling on a global scale and makes extinction desirable.
Fasching 1993 (Darrell J., AND Pp. 232-233) Bankey
These technological barbarians, says NeuhausAND all sacred orders must be subordinated.
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GSU Aff Disclosure

The United States Federal Government should permanently remove B61s from Europe.
Contention One: Nationalism
Russian nationalism is rampant now

Shevtsova, senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and professor of political science at
the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs of the MFA of Russia, ‘7 (Lilia Shevtsova, Ph.D., is a Russia Lost In
Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies, 280-281) Bankey
The growth of nationalistic sentiment and AND percent who "don't know."2
Nationalism is based on the threat of American hostility

Blank, Ph.D., Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War
College, ‘9 (Dr. Stephen Blank , “Introduction: Prospects For U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation,” March,
Vladimir Shlapentokh has written that an AND hatred and envy of America.28
Specifically, the existence of B61s plays into Kremlin and General Staff paranoia and reinforce the image of American
hostility
The problems connected with TNW also AND S. commitment to Europe).184
Unchecked nationalism causes war with the U.S.

Blank ‘7 (Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S.
Army War College, “Russian Democracy, Revisited” Spring, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php)
Bankey
Gvosdev defends his brand of realism AND at the cost of international catastrophe.
Extinction
Bostrom Ph.D., faculty of philosophy at Oxford, ‘2 (Nick Bostrum, “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction
Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Published in the Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002) Bankey
A much greater existential risk emerged AND will encounter in the 21st century.
Contention Two: Economy
B61 removal prevents an arms race which collapses Russia’s economy

U.S. Army War College, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,”
Strategic Studies Institute, March) Bankey
Furthermore, General Nikolai Makarov, AND will adequately respond to it.”11
Further decline means Medvedev will oust Putin

Crane, Ph.D., Director, Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program at RAND, et. al. ‘9 (Olga Oliker is
a senior international policy analyst, CraneLowell H. Schwartz, Ph.D. in candidate, International Policy Analyst,
Catherine Yusupov, “Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications,” RAND Project Air Force) Bankey
As a team, President Medvedev AND with tanks firing at parliament.36
Leads to a first strike against the US

Pry, Ph.D., AND Brink, p. 274) Bankey
Russian internal troubles—such as AND that it was in grave peril.
Contention Three: Cooperation
B61s cause Russian retaliation and dooms US/Russia cooperation

U.S. Army War College, “Introduction: Prospects For U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation,” March,
Nonetheless, obviously the rise of AND technology.7 Or, as BBC
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correspondent Paul Reynolds wrote at that AND West cooperation is genuinely possible.12
Unilateral reductions are a prerequisite to negotiations on Russian TNW

Diakov, Ph.D., Director and Professor of Physics at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, et. al. ‘4 (Anatoli
Russia views the US nuclear arms AND consolidated within their owner’s national territories.
Cooperation key to Kashmir stability

Legvold, Marshall D. Shulman AND 20-%20Legvold.pdf) Bankey
Second, to borrow the formulation AND to both Asian and European consumers.
Causes nuclear war

U.S. Army War College, “Prospects for Russo-American Cooperation in Halting Nuclear Proliferation,” March,
In the context of that DPRKAND such a war to break out.
Contention Four: Miscalc
B61s means the Kremlin cedes control to the General Staff

U.S. Army War College, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,”
Strategic Studies Institute, March) Bankey
Today Kortunov’s warnings have materialized in AND hostage relationship of the Cold War.
General Staff control leads to miscalc and US/Russia war

Pry ‘99 (Peter Vincent AND Brink, p. xvi) Bankey
The General Staff's fearful view of AND we face even more dangerous times.
Contention Five: Aggression
Russian maneuvering heightens tensions between East and West Europe – undermines a unified Russia policy and
causes instability
Lukyanov Ph.D., Editor-in-Chief, Russia in Global Affairs, ‘9 (Fedor Lukyanov, “US and Russia: Limits of Reloading,”
http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/2-2009/item1/article1/) Bankey
Although it is possible to hope AND and especially with respect to Moscow.
EU tensions over Russia guarantees manipulation through energy markets

Shevtsova ‘7 (Lilia Shevtsova, Ph.D., is a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and
professor of political science at the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs of the MFA of Russia, Russia Lost In
Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies, 212-213)
What was the European response to AND partnership is a difficult issue."8
Restored EU vision is key to the Energy Charter Treaty

Shevtsova ‘7 (Lilia Shevtsova, Ph.D., is a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and
professor of political science at the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs of the MFA of Russia, Russia Lost In
Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies, 147) Bankey
One almost has the impression that AND the advantages it has for Russia.
The Energy Charter Treaty solves Russian energy manipulation and aggression
Baran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute, ‘7 (Zeyno Baran “EU Energy
Security: Time to End Russian Leverage” The Washington Quarterly,
http://www.twq.com/07autumn/docs/07autumn_baran.pdf) Bankey
As of mid-2007, AND and plays them against each other.
Russia’s energy monopoly will collapse Central Asia
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Bratersky, professor at the Chair AND -03/07.shtml)

Russia’s main efforts in Central Asia AND an increase in extremist sentiments.6
Causes nuclear war

Tsepkalo, Belarussian Ambassador to the U.S., ‘98 (Valery V., “The Remaking of Eurasia,” Foreign Affairs,
March/April, Lexis)
But abetting the continuing destabilization of AND less predictable and more dangerous place.
Removing B61s is key to strategic alignment with the EU

Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, ‘6 (Hans M.
Kristensen is He is co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World
Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook, “U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe Current Posture and Policy
Implications,” http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/0/0/9/1/pages100915/p100915-
1.php) Bankey
As a result, NATO’s nuclear AND or Iran decides to go nuclear.
Even if Russia doesn’t cooperate, EU deterrence solves the impact

If consummated, these arms control AND democratization in both Europe and Asia.
Finally, arguments against unilateral B61 removal are as defunct as the bombs. Bureaucratic measures fail, B61s stifle
NATO-Russian cooperation, NATO burden sharing is inevitable, and the nuclear umbrella is here to stay.
Kristensen ‘5 (Hans M. Kristensen is Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American
Scientists, He is co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World
Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook, “U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Review of Post-Cold War
Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning” National Resources Defense Council, February)
The reductions in the number of AND modernized for essentially the same reasons.
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UMKC Garcia/Jantz (TNWs/Disarm) [Kelly]
The United States maintains hundreds of forward deployed Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe
Lamond and Ingram 9 (Claudine Lamond, recently graduated from the Australian National University hoding a
Bachelor of Arts in International Relations, and a Bachelor of Asian Studies, Security and Strategic Studies, and Paul
Ingram, Executive Director of British American Security Information Council, Getting to Zero Papers, No. 11 Politics
around US tactical nuclear weapons in European host states 23 January 2009, http://www.basicint.org/gtz/gtz11.pdf)
"While exact figures of US tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Europe are classified "
AND
"around 50-90 TNWs at the Incirlik airbase in Turkey."
PLAN: The United States Federal Government should withdraw all of its Tactical Nuclear Weapons deployed in North
Atlantic Treaty Organization host states.
Advantage 1 is Russia
Relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War

Newstex in 9
More Drama in Russian Sphere of Influence; July 14; Lexis
"A U.S. warship anchored off Georgia for joint military exercises Tuesday while "
AND
"the two sides are still deeply divided."
NATO expansion has increased Russian fears of US TNWs, increasing the chance for a nuclear standoff in Europe-
US removal of its nuclear forces will ease tensions, bolster the nonproliferation regime, and spur negotiations with
Russia on mutual reductions
Alexander Pikayev in 2k9 (Head of Department for Disarmament and Conflict Resolution of the Institute of World
Economy and International Relations at the Academy of Sciences, and Member of International Institute of Strategic
Studies, TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Pikayev_Tactical_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf)
"In Europe, after the accession to NATO of the Baltic States, the problem of tactical "
AND
"of which are non-nuclear-armed members of the NPT. "
Tactical nuclear presence in Eastern Europe combined with NATO eastern expansion, NMD, and the Russian war in
Georgia has set a perfect storm of political ramifications that threaten an arms race and return to war.
Solovyvov in 8
Dimitry; writer for Reuters; Oct 1; Russia fears U.S. nuclear arms on its borders;
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4907RV20081001
"Accession of Russia's neighbors Ukraine and Georgia to NATO could lead to "
AND
"- Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- as independent states."
TNWs are uniquely at risk for miscalculation and preemptive use

Nikolai Sokov in 2k9, Senior Research Associate at CNS. He graduated from Moscow State University in 1981 and
subsequently worked at the Institute of US and Canadian Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International
Relations in Moscow. From 1987-92 he worked at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union and later Russia,
and participated in START I and START II negotiations. Dr. Sokov has a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan (1996)
and International Relations (1986). He has published extensively on international security and arms control.Four
Emerging Issues in Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation: Opportunities for German Leadership, Monterey
Institute for International Studies, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/090717_german_leadership/german_leadership_full.pdf)
"This discussion brought forth certain properties of TNW, which helped shape the "
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AND
"especially when they are released to troops during the deployment phase. "
Even a “limited” conflict would kill billions

Spearow in 8
Jimmy; Teach Peace Foundation Adviser; The US encirclement of Russia is igniting a cold war that endangers us all;
http://www.teachpeace.com/encirclingusall.htm
"A renewed cold war between nuclear powers also raises the danger of "accidental" "
AND
"nationalism are driving militarization and confrontations that put all we know at risk.”
TNW presence in NATO fuels nationalist sentiments-only unilateral withdrawal solves

Nikolai Sokov in 2k9, Senior Research Associate at CNS. He graduated from Moscow State University in 1981 and
subsequently worked at the Institute of US and Canadian Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International
Relations in Moscow. From 1987-92 he worked at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union and later Russia,
and participated in START I and START II negotiations. Dr. Sokov has a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan (1996)
and International Relations (1986). He has published extensively on international security and arms control.Four
Emerging Issues in Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation: Opportunities for German Leadership, Monterey
Institute for International Studies, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/090717_german_leadership/german_leadership_full.pdf)
"The Politics of Russian TNW. The explanation for the Russian position on TNW can hardly "
AND
"equally significant concessions in areas of interest to Russia. "
TNWs only fuel nationalist sentiment in Russia-removal would take away the only rationale for Russia’s maintenance
of forward deployed weapons.
Gunnar Arbman, and Charles Thornton in 2k3 (Swedish Defence Research Agency, Russia's Tactical Nuclear
Weapons Part I: Background and Policy Issues, http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/thorntonrussia.pdf)
"On the other hand, various conservative elements in Russia feel that too many "
"AND"
AND
""the U.S. ""
US TNW withdrawals from Europe are a key precondition to Russia talking about disarmament of those weapons—this
spurs dialog and improves relations.
Higgin in 5
Davida; US Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe; Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament;
http://www.cnduk.org/pages/binfo/nato2005.pdf
"In addition, withdrawal is a precondition for TNW negotiations with Russia, which "
AND
"the spread of nuclear equipment and technology around the world. "
Even if no comprehensive arms control is reached, unilateral action eases Russian fears of US intentions, solving
relations and the risk of accidental of miscalculated launch
Mosher et al of Rand in 2003
DAVID E. MOSHER, LOWELL H. SCHWARTZ, DAVID R. HOWELL, LYNN E. DAVIS National Security Research
Division “Beyond the
Nuclear Shadow” http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1666/
"The phased approach to the Nuclear Safety Initiative that we recommend here is based "
AND
"security in other important areas, such as nonproliferation and counterterrorism. "
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ADVANTAGE 2 PROLIFERATION
The NPT has been pushed to the tipping point-refusal to remove TNWs from Europe threatens to collapse the regime
in 2010, risking a larger new wave of proliferation
Christos Katsioulis & Christoph Pilger in 2k8 International Policy Analysis, Nuclear Weapons in NATO’s New Strategic
Concept A Chance to Take Non-Proliferation Seriously, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/ipa/05425.pdf
"Nuclear arms control and disarmament policies are in a state of transition. Since the "
AND
"obstacles stand in the way of this attempt."
Non proliferation efforts are key-we are reaching a tipping point, further proliferation will cause rapid spread of
weapons
Perry et al in 2k9 (William, former secretary of defense, and a shitload of other qualified people, America’s Strategic
Posture, The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,
http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf)
"First, the threat of nuclear terrorism is serious and continues to deserve a high level of "
AND
"cascade of proliferation."
Models supporting proliferation don’t assume the current environment, where dyads will be uncommon and multi-
nuclear regions the norm. Latent nuclear capabilities have spread-proliferation in one area risks sparking wildfire
proliferation.
Dr. Brad Roberts, Research Staff Member Nuclear Multipolarity and Stability November 2k
www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2000/d2539dtra.doc
"With this brief tour of the horizon, what follows for the stability assessment? Where are "
AND
"weapons in being in response to some catalytic event. "
Proliferations causes extinction – nuclear arms races and miscalculated nuclear war.
Utgoff in 2
(Deputy Director of the Strategy Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, Victor,
“Proliferation, Missile Defence, and American Ambitions,” Survival, Volume 44, Number 2, Summer)
"First, the dynamics of getting to a highly proliferated world could be very dangerous. Proliferating "
AND
"nations"
Removing TNWs from Europe will boost NPT credibility, solving proliferation
Christos Katsioulis & Christoph Pilger in 2k8 International Policy Analysis, Nuclear Weapons in NATO’s New Strategic
Concept A Chance to Take Non-Proliferation Seriously, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/ipa/05425.pdf
"NATO’s new strategic concept is a necessary step in further adapting the Alliance to new "
AND
"functioning global regime on nuclear non-proliferation. "
The US must be a leader in international nonproliferation efforts-nuclear arms cuts are key-failure to do so guarantees
terrorist use of a nuclear weapon.
"Last year the Congress authorized the formation of a commission to conduct a review of "
AND
"to meet that goal. "
Even if we don’t solve all proliferation norms- TNWs are uniquely vulnerable to terrorist theft and use
Mützenich et al 08 (4/8; Time to remove tactical nuclear weapons from Europe?; Dr. Rolf Mützenich MdB, SPD
Spokesperson on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament; Patrik Vankrunklesven MP Belgium, PNND Council
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Member; Sergei Kolesnikov, Member of the Russian Duma, PNND Council Member;
http://www.gsinstitute.org/pnnd/pubs/Tactical_nukes.pdf)
"The Commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction (Blix Commission) notes that there "
AND
"elimination.” "
Nuclear terrorism is a greater threat than deliberate use by a state-deterrence does not solve
"The second important new challenge is nuclear terrorism. As noted earlier, the concern "
AND
"preventing terrorist access to weapons, materials, and expertise anywhere in the world. "
NUCLEAR TERRORISM RISKS EXTINCTION

Sid-Ahmed 4 (Al-Ahram Mohamed, Weekly political analyst, "Extinction!" 8/26,
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
"What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would "
AND
"the whole planet, we will all be losers."
NEW AFF BROKEN AT BEAR SHOCK IN QUARTERS
The US is facing a choice in its nuclear policy-either focusing international efforts on non-proliferation or disarmament.
Unfortunately, US refusal to disarm will perpetuate a focus on preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
Ray Acheson Thursday, 26 March 2009, Reviewing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparations for the 2010
NPT Review Conference, project associate at Reaching Critical Will, a project of the Women’s International League for
Peace and Freedom, http://disarm.igc.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=280:reviewing-the-nuclear-
non-proliferation-treaty-preparations-for-the-2010-npt-review-conference&catid=138:disarmament-times-spring-
2009&Itemid=2
"The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a cornerstone agreement in efforts to regulate nuclear weapons "
AND
"The result is a dangerous stalemate. "
This focus on proliferation control functions within dominant paradigms of security discourse to frame social life and
ascribe identities to particular actors in order to justify intervention into or elimination of particular groups or states
Mutimer 2k
[David, International Relations lecturer at Keele University and Research Associate at the York Centre for International
and Strategic Studies, The Weapons State: Proliferation and the Framing of Security, pgs 6-7]
"By invading Kuwait and triggering the spectacular response that was the Gulf War, Iraq has "
AND
"coordinate their own export controls over technologies now identified as “proliferation” concerns."
The representation of “our” nuclear arsenal as unproblematic and the Others as dangerous is a racist form of
orientalism that produces binary oppositions to secure our weapons
Gusterson 2k4
[Hugh, Associate professor of anthropology and science studies at MIT and professor of public policy at the Georgia
Institute of Technology, People of the Bomb: Portraits of America’s Nuclear Complex, 2004, pgs 24-26]
Thus in Western discourse… recognized nuclear powers.
"Thus in Western discourse nuclear weapons are represented so that "theirs" are a "
AND
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"(4) it legitimates the nuclear monopoly of the recognized nuclear powers. "
This focus on security perpetuates resentment of difference-it attempts to order the world in terms of purely causal,
objective relationships, locking us into a nihilistic cycle in which the only way to preserve life is by negating its value.
Der Derian in 1993(James, Professor of IR and political science at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, “The
Value of Security: Hobbes, Marx, Nietzsche and Baudrillard”, The Political Subject of Violence, ed. David Campbell
and Michael Dillon, Page 101-105)
"One must begin with Nietzsche's idea of the will to power, which he clearly believed to be "
AND
"cautious identity constructed from the calculation of risks and benefits. "
This negation of life manifests itself in the expansion of orientalist hierarchies that deem life as worthless in the global
South and cause unending exploitation of others
Gusterson 2k4
Institute of Technology, People of the Bomb: Portraits of America’s Nuclear Complex, 2004, pgs 44-46]
Noam Chomsky has… Other are ultimately one.
"Noam Chomsky has suggested that the arms race between the superpowers was not really "
AND
"that we and the Other are ultimately one. "
THUS THE PLAN: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD PERMANENTLY DISARM THE
UNITED STATES’ NUCLEAR ARSENAL
Disarmament is the only way to end the exceptionalist nature of the NPT-we must recognize that no country should
possess nuclear weapons
AFP in 2k8 Agence France Press, 40 Years On, NPT In Urgent Need of Overhaul: Experts,
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/07/02/10040
"The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, which celebrates its 40th birthday this "
AND
"proliferation," Subrahmanyam wrote in a recent article for the Arms Control Association. "
To break down the dichotomy between “us” and “them” we must begin by renouncing the very existence of nuclear
weapons – we must start with the notion that no one should possess weapons of this magnitude
Gusterson 2k4
Institute of Technology, People of the Bomb: Portraits of America’s Nuclear Complex, 2004, pgs 47]
The third strategy… safer we will be.
"The third strategy, renunciation, breaks down the distinctions we have constructed "
AND
"and the greater courage we show in doing so, the safer we will be."
Weaponization is not inevitable-beginning through a frame of disarmament allows us to focus on the structural factors
that perpetuate the arms race and international violence of nuclear weapons
Mutimer 2k
[David, International Relations lecturer at Keele University and Research Associate at the York Centre for International
and Strategic Studies, The Weapons State: Proliferation and the Framing of Security]
"The importance of the attempted reframing of issues of “proliferation” in terms of "
AND
"“development. ” "
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This focus on structural violence is key-nuclear terror perpetuates a state apparatus that upholds multiple forms of
domination.
Kovel 83
[Joel, Adjunct Professor of Anthropology, Graduate Faculty, New School for Social Research, New York, NY, Against
the State of Nuclear Terror, 1983, pgs 71-72]
"Culture is the linchpin between the people and the established order. It can be manipulated by the latter but "
AND
"takes over. And eventually the body becomes but another machine. "
We are not concerned with disarmament in any moral sense-rather, we want to engage in a politics that enjoys life as
life. Our acceptance of the potential insecurity that accompanies nuclear disarmament is part of a rejection of world
ordering mechanisms like security and capitalism. The refusal to succumb to fear is a key first step.
Themi in 2k8 Tim, professor, Cosmos and History: The Journal of
Natural and Social Philosophy, 4.1-2
http://www.cosmosandhistory.org/index.php/journal/article/view/96/192
"But with psychoanalysis, rightly or wrongly, such truths are out. It doesn’t seem all positive "
AND
"drive resurge of its own volition until it accidentally finishes us! "
Our aff is not just about framing, it is about action-doing nothing depoliticizes the struggle against nuclear weapons
and leaves the nuclear state apparatus intact and in control of the bomb
Kovel 83
"If the nuclear threat is unique among the world's dangers, then, it is not only by virtue of its scale, but also "
AND
"nuclear darkness."
You should vote to align yourself with a call to reject the hyper-securitized “rational” actions that justify the ever-present
threat of nuclear annihilation. This involves an understanding of the structural factors that lead to nuclear statism.
Kovel 83
"Against this impressive array of assets lie only two cards in the hand of resistance—the"
and
""problems it raises. ""
none
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Wichita State Box/Robinson (TNWs) [Kelly]
WSU BR Aff - Kentucky

Adv. 1- NATO-

Kristensen (above)

posture


Nuclear War

TNW capability sucks up air force money and resources – guts air power
Oelrich ‘5
[Ivan, Director of the Strategic Security Program at the Federation of American Scientists
http://www.fas.org/resource/01282005175922.pdf]
The first question is what ...
Dunkirk in the first place.
Air power key to deterrence and China
Eaglen ‘9
[The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security by Mackenzie Eaglen and Lajos Szaszdi,
Ph.D. Backgrounder #2295 http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/bg2295.cfm]
China has ordered a...in the coming decades.
Straits Times 2k
Prolif Advantage
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Kristensen (above)






Nuclear Terrorism Advantage
US nuclear weapons in Europe are obselete – they only risk theft by terrorist groups. These weapons are especially
vulnerable because of internal extremist groups in Europe
Pikayev ‘8
[Alexander, Head of Department for Disarmament and Conflict Resolution of the Institute of World Economy and
International Relations at the Academy of Sciences, and Member of International Institute of Strategic Studies
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS, http://74.125.95.132/search?
q=cache:YOBQIiZWbicJ:www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Pikayev_Tactical_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf+tactical+nuclear+we
apons+%2B+NATO&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us]
In accordance with current estimates ...

of the Cold War
Facilities holding TNW’s do not meet security requirements and are guarded by personnel with little training and
experience
Wood ‘9
[David, Jul 8, Wood has won the Gerald Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense, and in 2008 won
the Headliners Club award for his reporting on Iraq. He has lectured at the Marine Staff College, the Joint Forces Staff
College and the Army's Eisenhower Fellows conference, and has appeared on CNN, CSPAN, the PBS News Hour,
and on BBC and National Public Radio. Tactical Nuclear Weapons, the Menace No One Is Talking About,
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/07/08/tactical-nuclear-weapons-the-menace-no-one-is-talking-about/]
The U.S. tactical weapons...training or experience.
Even if terrorists couldn’t detonate a nuke they could explode a dirty bomb
Taina Susiluoto, Tactical Nuclear Weapons Time for Control, The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research,
2002 http://www.unidir.org/pdf/ouvrages/pdf-1-92-9045-143-2-en.pdf
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The process needed...severe and lasting disruption.
Terrorist attacks cause nuclear war and extinction

Speice 2006 (JD Candidate Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, ’06 (Patrick, February,
“Negligence And Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating The Current Liability Barrier To Bilateral U.S.-Russian
Nonproliferation Assistance Programs” 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, William and Mary Law Review, Lexis.)
The potential consequences...use of nuclear weapons
SOLVENCY


Deployment of tactical nuclear weapons is the most likely scenario for nuclear war and will trigger escalation
Sokov ‘2
[Nikolai, May, Dr. Nikolai Sokov, Senior Research Associate CNS NIS Nonproliferation Program Center for
Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) Monterey Institute of International Studies, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_10a.html]
In some respects,...emulate this example.
Wichita State BR Aff UNI
WSU BR Aff
Round # 2
vs Team: Macalester FI
Judge: Neal Travis
Plan Text-
The United States federal government should end all roles and missions of its forward deployed non-strategic nuclear
weapons and remove all of the United States federal governments forward deployed non-strategic nuclear weapons
from North Atlantic Treaty Organization host nations.
1ac w/ cites
Adv. 1- NATO-

Kristensen (above)
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posture


Nuclear War
ADVANTAGE 2- Proliferation
Ending nuclear sharing prevents proliferation of nuclear weapons- it would restore western non-prolif credibility and
legitimacy to the NPT
Shawn Beatty et al 6 ( “Advancing Disarmament: Canada and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Nuclear Policy”.
ONLINE)
American nuclear weapons…with double standards.

Kristensen (above)
Proliferation causes extinction- nuclear arms races and miscalculated nuclear war
Victor Utgoff, 2 (“Proliferation, Missile Defense, and American Ambitions”. Survival, Vol. 44, Number 2, summer 2002)
First, the dynamics…even whole nations.
The NPT is proven to prevent prolif- recent set backs are a lack of enforcement and international support
Simon Morgan 8 (“40 years on, NPT in urgent need of overhaul: exerpts”. June 29. Agent France Presse. Lexis)
Experts acknowledge the… bargain- and soon
NPT Key to prevent terrorists from acquiring nukes

Mary kaldor 9 (“Dismantling the Global Nuclear Infrastructure”. ONLINE)
It is often…monitoring and verification
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Marshall Speice 6 (“Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-
Russian nonproliferation assistance program” 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. LEXIS)
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The potential consequences…use of nuclear weapons.

SCENARIO 1- NPT
The NPT is on the verge of collapse- the most important step is to end NATO nuclear sharing in Europe
John Avery 9 (“The way is open for a nuclear weapon-free northern europe”
www.peoplesdecade.org/experts/detail.php?id=45)
The strongest argument…along the road.
The NPT is dying because of hypocrisy

Amulya Ganguli 9 (“NPT is dying”. www.dnaindia.com/opinion/main-article_npt-is-dying_1280284)
Pakistan, on the other…rogue nuclear states.
SCENARIO 2- NORTH KOREA

SCENARIO 3- IRAN



SOLVENCY

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1ar Strategy Notes
2ar Strategy Notes
Whicita State BR-

Politics Answers (TNW AFF)
There is bipartisan support for the plan
Withington, 2008 (Thomas, “The Tactical Nuclear Weapons Game”) moreover, the two main parties in the US…
deterrence and nuclear balance persist
Plan is popular- congress placed a ban on stockpiling tactical nukes

Conrad, 2001 (William, “The Future of Tactical Nuclear Weapons) regardless, one may assume… such as Germany
and Japan
Plan’s win for obama result in more capital

Singer, march 3, 2009 (Jonathan, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows his Capital,”) despite the country’s struggling
economy… ending the war in Iraq)
Public backs the plan- 75% agree

Langmore, 2008 (John, The courier mail Australia, sept 26, “junking the nuke option”) but America is a democracy…
UN association of Australia
Public popularity key to obama’s agenda

Western, 3-19-09 (Drew, “How Obama Can repair AIG damage,”) in getting the nation’s economy… governance is
impossible
AT: FUCK K
Focusing on the dualism between masculine and feminine only reinforces the problem
Kaplan, prof of philosophy @ UNCC, 1994 (Laura, Hypatia, Spring) I do not believe that the concept… hierarchies
amoung people
Fuck is not gendered biased- no impact on patriarchy

Fairman, 2006 (Christopher, “Fuck” http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5152&context=expresso) when
these tests are applied… hostile environment claim
Reframing from use of the world fuck only re-inforces its taboo. Alternatives are ineffective
Fairman, 2006 (Christopher, “Fuck” http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5152&context=expresso)
phsycholinguistics provides the insight into the way… engage in selfcensorship
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Ptting restrictions on the word only encourages its future use

(Christopher, “Fuck” http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5152&context=expresso) wheter you are…
world of silence-taboo
Punishing is not the answer

(Christopher, “Fuck” http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5152&context=expresso) regardless of its
source.. must be set free
Language only asserts approximate realities-

Grace, 1987 (George. The linguistic Construction of Reality. Pg 42-3) the term autonomous text… like the following
lines
Language cannot portray the exact nature of reality

Grace, 1987 (George. The linguistic Construction of Reality. Pg 42-3) thirdly, some statements even… available to us
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**UNKNOWN**
Clarion Flick/Salim (unknown)
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CSU-Fullerton Carter/Thach (unknown)
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Fordham Frey/Millea (unknown)
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Illinois State Howard/Siebert (unknown)
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Johns Hopkins Brady/Wilkie (unknown)
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Louisiana Brasseaux/Pickney (unknown)
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Louisiana Cantu/Chapman (unknown)
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Miami Nensey/Ramos (unknown)
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Redlands Iola/Ziering (unknown)
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Southern Cal Katzman/Munoz (unknown)
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Wyoming Fanning/Pauli (unknown)
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09-10 NDT CEDA Caselist - AFF

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Minnesota CWRU Neg

Congressional action is key to ensuring constitutionally mandated oversight of nuclear policy.

Bard Jaffe-Goldstein/Luxemberg (Critical) [Ogi]

Butler 06 [Judith, Precarious Life: The Powers of Mourning and Violence] 7

Baylor Cook/McVey (Critical-Agamben) [Eli]

Gonz Rnd 1- aff v. NU GL- McBride

We begin our investigation with Marc LaFleur’s 2007 observation:

Benjamin Noys, The Culture of Death, 96-97

GSU Aff Disclosure

Taking Husserl's distinction between facts …advance what counts as a fact.

Binghamton Cameron/Groh (Critical) [Logan]

Binghamton Fountain/Torsiello (Aliens) [Ogi]

Observation One: We’ve Had Contact

President Obama is attempting … efforts to learn about UFOs.

Sadly, America’s posturing in such a climate risks sparking an intergalactic war

Observation Two: Out of This World

Advanced ethical extraterrestrial society … planetary, human and biosphere survival.

To help prevent war and hopefully usher in … is much work to be done!

What matters now is that we … is in some sense up to us.

California Brockaway/Patel (Critical-Ethics) [Arif]

Contention 1: The Atomic Body Politic

Contention 2: The Blueprint

Contention 1 is Hostage Holding.

Contention 2 is Nonviolent Decision Making.

California Gray/Srivangipuram (Critical-Ethics) [Arif]

Contention 2: The Blueprint

1AC from Gonzaga

AT: Disposal Specification

Normal means is just dismantling

We won't no-link out of anything, so no abuse

There is no resolutional basis for requiring disposal specification.

Alt can't solve numbing, which is a prerequisite to eliminating violence

AT: CP: Dispose of nuclear material in ocean

Reduces nature into pure energy.

Case Western Mattern/Wolf (Critical) [Mark]

GSU Aff Disclosure

“As the cold war…against the Soviets.”

“Power relations play….they will make”

“The progress reflected…2,000 to 3,000 warheads.”

The impacts are manifold:

First, the assumption of bargaining ensures conflict.

“I begin by…to influence them.”

Second, it guarantees war and institutional violence.

“In common with….and reproduced an interaction.”

“Thus in Western…institutions and states.”

The plan solves:

KM Fierke 98, Changing Games, Changing Strategies pg. 20-24

“Today’s international environment…the major powers.”

Central Oklahoma Koslow/Spurlock (Critical-Spanos) [Jake]

2ac at: framework

by affirming everything positively we escape topical imperialism in this room

debate's technical practices train us to be neocons

framework is biopolitical-it makes us create enemies to be fought against

Gonzaga Prelims and Double Octafinals

Call me Ishmael, U COKS if you may.

[1] Melville, Moby Dick pp. 22-30

Central Oklahoma Spomer/Sales

Central Oklahoma Sales/Spomer (Critical-Indians) [Jake]

Kuletz 98 The Tainted Desert

Clarion Ciak/Swanlek (Critical-Democracy) [DCH]

Observation I: Fear of Risk

We begin with a brief synopsis of the development of the nuclear bomb

Durodié, Senior Lecturer in Risk and Security at Cranfield University, 2005