Toyota Motors

Exchange Tokyo stock market

Ticker TM 7203
Price 3700
Date 3/7/2011
Currency JPY
Shares Issd. 3448
Units million
Period 2010-12-31
ST debt 5329604
LT debt 6706016
Cash 6752680
Sh/Equity 10229944

CALCULATIONS
Tot debt 12035620
ST debt/Tot debt 44%
Net debt 5282940
Net debt/Equity 52%
Share price 3,700.00
BVPS 2,967.01

VALUATION
P/BVPS 1.2

OPTIONS SCENARIOS (Long Bias/risk shy)

Jan-12 Jan-13
Price date 2011-03-08 2011-03-08
Units 11236 11236
No. opt contracts 112 112
Share price 89 89
Expiry date 1/20/2012 1/18/2013
90 CALL prem. 6.85 9.95
90 PUT prem. 7.83 9.7
80 PUT prem. 3.3 5.5

CALCULATIONS
Buy 90 call (76,966) (111,798)
Sell 90 put 87,978 108,989
Buy 80 put (37,079) (61,798)
Trade cost (26,067) (64,607)

Put credit spread 50,899 47,191

Eff call cost (26,067) (64,607)
Eff opt. price (2.33) (5.77)
Cash hurdle -2.6% -6%
Days to expiry 318 682
Annualised rate -3.0% -3.5%

SCENARIOS
a) Exp. sh/price 87 87
90 Call OTM - -
90 put ITM (33,600) (33,600)
80 put OTM - -
Value (33,600) (33,600)
Net position (59,667) (98,207)

b) Exp. sh/price 75 75
90 Call OTM - -
90 put ITM (168,000) (168,000)
80 put ITM 56,000 56,000
Value (112,000) (112,000)
Net position (138,067) (176,607)

c) Opt bkevn 92 96
90 Call ITM 26,067 64,607
90 put OTM - -
80 put OTM - -
Value 26,067 64,607
Net position (0) -

INTEREST INCOME
Call deposit 973,933 935,393
4% pa 38,957 37,416
Acc. Int. 33,941 69,911
Net position 7,873 5,304

Jan-12 Jan-13
Price date 2011-03-08 2011-03-08
Units 11236 11236
No. opt contracts 112 112
Share price 89 89
Expiry date 1/20/2012 1/18/2013
90 CALL prem. 6.85 9.95
90 PUT prem. 7.83 9.7
85 PUT prem. 5.25 7.5
CALCULATIONS
Buy 90 call (76,966) (111,798)
Sell 90 put 87,978 108,989
Buy 85 put (58,989) (84,270)
Trade cost (47,978) (87,079)

Put credit spread 28,989 24,719

Eff call cost (47,978) (87,079)
Eff opt. price (4.28) (7.77)
Cash hurdle -4.8% -9%
Days to expiry 318 682
Annualised rate -5.5% -4.7%

SCENARIOS
a) Exp. sh/price 87 87
90 Call OTM - -
90 put ITM (33,600) (33,600)
85 put OTM - -
Value (33,600) (33,600)
Net position (81,578) (120,679)

b) Exp. sh/price 75 75
90 Call OTM - -
90 put ITM (168,000) (168,000)
85 put ITM 112,000 112,000
Value (56,000) (56,000)
Net position (82,067) (120,607)

c) Opt bkevn 94 98
90 Call ITM 47,978 87,079
90 put OTM - -
85 put OTM - -
Value 47,978 87,079
Net position - -

INTEREST INCOME
Call deposit 952,022 912,921
4% pa 38,081 36,517
Acc. Int. 33,177 68,231
Net position (14,800) (18,847)