Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Investigaciones Econ—micas | ie
Mayo de 2006
ie | BCRA
Investigaciones Econ—micas
Banco Central
de la Repœblica Argentina
B anco Central de la Repœblica Argentina
ie | Investigaciones Econ—micas
Mayo, 2006
ISSN 1850-3977
Edici—n Electr—nica
Las opiniones vertidas en este trabajo son exclusiva responsabilidad de los autores y no reflejan necesariamente la
posici—n del Banco Central de la Repœblica Argentina. La serie Documentos de Trabajo del BCRA est‡ compuesta por
material preliminar que se hace circular con el prop—sito de estimular el debate acadŽmico y recibir comentarios. Toda
referencia que desee efectuarse a estos Documentos deber‡ contar con la autorizaci—n del o los autores.
! " # $
%"
&'( )**+
" $ , $
- . /
0
(
( $ 1
/ "
! / 2 " 3
/ ( 4 2
0 / 5 / 6 3
6 2 %
0 ( 7 0
5 / 8 6 3
" $ 2 " 2 (
5 " /
/ " $
2 / 5 (
5 0 ( 5 3
4 "
" $ 7
% ( (
"5 $ ( 2
" 4
" ( ,
! " 0 $
0 " 2 "
" 2 6 5 $ 4 "
'
" ( "
$ , $ - ./
0 0
/ $ 3
4
( " 3
( ( $ 1
$ " 7 $
7 " $ $ " 3
7
( "5
$ $
$ " 0 / $ 3
9 ( )**+:( ($ "
4 ( $ ( $ ,
8 4 0 3
$ $ "
0 ; ( "5
# $
'
" 8 1
" ( "5 "
4 / 2
7 $ "
$ 4 0 3
( "2 $ " 2
6 / 7
" ( $ 0( 2 3
0 - 2
2 " .
" 0 6
9 $ ( )**+< = " ( )**>:
5, 5 / 43
/ 2 / " 2
6 ( 5 /
/ 6 0 2 1
2 / 1 3
$ ( " , 6
5 "
, 7 ! 5 (
5 / 7
$ " $ 0
" 1 /
'6 ;;??? " $
)
" 4 ! $ 0 / 8
2 $ 0 3
2 5 $ $ 0
0 7 " (
" $ 0 $
- 2 ( @ @
.
" 2 ( ) 3
/ 1 3
$ " 5 "
& 0 $ 5 " 2 (
8
0 >
5 $ ( A 8
" 0
5
! / 2 $ 3
$ $ " "
0 7 6 4 (
$ " ! / 4 -
6
" 2
7 " 6
0 $ " 3
0 $ " 7 6 / 6
4 0 $ " ( " 3
6 4
B 7
/ 0 4
" $ $ " -/ $ /
$ . $ ( /
4 0
4 1
-
$ 7 $
&
" $ 7 "5 " "
2 ( "3
" % ( "
"5 " "
)
" $ 2 4 ( ( " "
(
0 7 ( 7 $
$ " 4 3
/ 6 4 ( -
. 7 $ ( "
(/ 3
7 0 " $
$ " # ( $ 0 (
$ / (
" ( 4 $ " $
7 ( " $
4 ( 7 $
2 6 7 $ ( 3
4 1
( 4 (
0 7
( "
- .( 1 ( 2 3
7 6 !
4 % $ $ " (
7 $ "
) " " " 2 " " (
( $ " " ( (
/ (
>
0 2
" $ " 5 !
7 $ 0 2 3
$ "
7
"1 ( / 4
/ 2 / 4
/ " 6 "
4 / $ 3
" 1 $ " (
( , 0 7
7
! / C
5( $ " 5(
" / 0 C "2 $
( $ 0 7 3
$ " ( 0 $ " (
( 4 3
0 "
C 5 "
$ " 2 ( 0 7 (
/ 7
$ " - . " 6 " 4
C 5 " /
$ " -7 7 . $
$ " - 2 (
5 / C .(
$ " 0 (
/ 0 7
( 2 / ( 0
/ ,
7 $ " 4 7
/ 4 0 $ " - /
C 5 . 3
$ " 4 (
0 $ " 2
$ " 0 4 ! $ "
( 4 0
6 0 $ " (
A
D" ' $ 1
@ 2 @
$ 7 $ ( 7 $ 6 "
4 $ "
4 $ " 4 5 "
0 4 ( 3
8 5 0
5 $ 0
5 ( 5 3
2 ( "
5 "
-'E+E. 2 7 4 3
4 (/ 0 0
$ " 0
4 " (
" 7 "
( 4 " 3
$ 0 7 4 0
" $ 4 " $
- 5 " 5
. " $ 0
2 ( D " ' 1
' 3
" - . 4 / 6
" 3
4 ( 2 / /
+
'
" ( " 7
/ " " - % 4 .
4 / 4
( 1 0 1 1
7 $ ( $
$ 1 7 $ 1 /
1 "
- ( ( 4
. 0 /
" $ /
" " 7 7 3
$ 7 $ $ 3
" $ / 8 1 $
1 (
( $
1 6 - . "
) 1
" 7
0 7 2 2 3
$ " "
F
) 1 7
D" ) "
D " )
G / / 6 6 / "
/ /
/ $ 0
2
$ 0 " ( "
(- . $ ( "5
4 $ 5
&
( 5 " ( 3
>
2 ( 5 4 @
@( " D" &
5
D " $ D " & 3
5 $ 0 2
$ ( / " ,
&! 5 ( 5 / 0 $ 0
>! 2 / $ 0
H
5
5
I 0
2
@D @
& 5 " $ 0
&( " $ 0 (
2 " 2 1
4 4 $ 5 (
2 0 2
"1 2 - $ 0
" 7 1
( .
/ D " > $
A
( "
2 ( 2 7
( $ 0 ( 5
A 5 F $
E
5 ! # J
5
I 0
2
@D @
D " > J 4
@ $ ( ( 5
" $ 8 " 7 5 3
( $5 /
" ( $ 1
+
8 / / $ - 2 . - .
D" > 2 $ 7
" 7 5 3
2 7 4 0 8 $
7 % - .
/ / 5 "
1 4 / $ -D " A. 3
( 6 4 5
$ 0 /
K %
6 " 0
% ( 2
7 $ "
> $ / ( , 7 3
+ $ J
2 J
'*
5
5
I 0
2
@D @
D " A # 4 7 "
$ ( 5 7 $ "
" / 7
7 6 " 0
> / " $
6 / $ $
4 $ 0 7 $ ( 8
2 0
7 ( 6 0
( $ ( 0 2
( 2 " $
0
" 0 2 "
$ 8 $ D" +
" 0 " 2 (
/ 8 2 (
( 4 " 7
7 / % " $ 6 (
$ $ /
7 $ 2 (
4 7 6 ( '** 1
6 ( 7 2 ( /
( 7 4
"
0 3
7
7 $ % ( (/ 0 /
F
F / % / 2 /
6 $ "
''
> " " 7 3
6 "
')
A " 7 % 6
7 $
D" + 4 $ 7 7 $
7 7 "
'&
+ " 7
! / 1 " (
5
" $ ( $ 0
( 7 $ " " (
" 3
0 ( 2 ,
3 1
4 0 " 2 ( +
$ 0
7 $ 4
/ " $
7 ( / 8 ( 2 " 3
$ / ( 1 "
$ (6 / 4
" 2 /
"$
5 $ " 0 " 4
! 0 7 "
/ 6 / 0
0 0
'>
"2 $
2 (/
2 " $ 6 ( (
$ " 4 ( (
$ ( "
( $ (
(
( 0
0 6 4
0 / 7 0
" 6 $ / 0
1 (
( $ 7
- . ) 1
- .
D5 " $ 7 3
( 7 / $ 0 3
" $ 0 5
( " " " /
$ / " ! " 3
( 7 $
( ( 5 /
2 ,3
" $ 0
( / / "
$ 0 5 $ / 6 2
( " " " $ 0
" " 2 "
" $ 0
5 1
! / ( ( (
/ (
5 " " $ <
'A
(
/ 4 ( " "
0 " /
5 " " (
" "
( " "
0 " 2 /
F $ +(
2 " 5 $
- "
.(H 2 $ / 5
2 0 ( 5 $ /
- . " $
5 " 2
$ 0 5 (
2 / "
4 $ 7 "
! "
5 $ !
/
, $ $ " ! 0
C
" 0 3
( / 0 0
( 6 $ - " $ 3
. ! ( / $ 06
( % / 6
$ " -
C C (
H " 6 2 14 ( /
6
'+
F " 5 3
6
L
L
D" F L% 7 % 3
- C .
$ D " F. D ( 5 6 6 /
2 6 4 3
$ 5 $
7 $ 7 / 1 3
" ! 6 0 /
" 2 ( /
( 5
E
2 4
D" H % 3
C 2 4
( $ ( " 3
1 , C 0 5
K / "
" 4 " $ "
" C 2 6 6 / 4 2 3
E 5 H C
2 , 0 4
7 4 $
'F
I 6
K 3)**A
L $3)**A
3)**A
3)**+
"3)**+
3)**+
D" H M C )
I 6
K 3)**A
L $3)**A
3)**A
3)**+
"3)**+
3)**+
D " E M C '
6 0 / 2 0
" 4 ( 3
" 71 4 1 5
7 ( L $ " " 3
6 6 ( , $ " "
4 $ " 2 $ 0 - .(
0 - .( / " 2 $
( " " $
( , $
" $ 0 ( / "
D" E %
C 2 7
/ ( $ ( " 2 C
0 5 D "5 4 " (
/ 7 ( / 0
1 2 7 "
$
# $
" 2 / 5 " 3
0 2 2
" % 3
'H
0 ! 0 2 $ 6
$ " " $ ( 0 7
$ / $ $ 0
7 $ / 0
5 3
/ 5
0 "
, 5 ( 43
$ ( " " 7 3
5 ( / ( % 3
$ 7 ( "
2 ( 5 3
0 5 " 3
4 " ( / 4 / 6
2 " "
% !
( -)**+.
- .( "
(= ( N = -'E+E. @D6 " 77 @
)*( >A'3>+H
$ ( " -)**+. ( 3
$ ( (7 6
= " ( D ( ! O ( -)**>. @ 7
C $ 6(@ (
= 6 N P! ( ( )&-F.( >FE3>E+
O ( $ = -)**&. ! " " #
( " $ ( "
'E
& ' ( )
$
# J
5
I 0
2
@D @
# J
5
I 0
2
@D @
# J
5
I 0
2
@D @
# J
5
I 0
2
@D @
)*
-)& . I
K 3)**A
L $3)**A
3)**A
3)**+
"3)**+
3)**+
D" '* 4 5 7 %
"
-)E . I
K 3)**A
L $3)**A
3)**A
3)**+
"3)**+
3)**+
D" '' 4 5 7 %
"
* + $ ,
( 2 ,
$ / 0 L
" ( 5 2 8 3
" " / 8 % "3
$ " " 2 1
0 $ "
0 $ 0 " $
" 2 2 2 3
4 " $ (
4 "
- " . 4
)'