son, Novenber 14, 1972 INDIA-PAKISTAN: SIMLA ACCORDS AGROUND IN KASHMIR Implementation of the Simla Agreement has run into serious trouble cares Sin ip Ogihara fe sefmta sie ef hs digit be Biever a political decision on either or both sides to ignore these implications. a nt mn tt relations between the two countries over the near term. esa eeeerpsay sane rere (1) delineate a "line of control" in Kashmir according to troop positions neld at the December 17 ceasefire and (2) withdraw troops to the inter- dearer ae ae eihewerteenienat es than two square miles of territory held by Pakistan in the Takho Chak area. The problem is that this territory -- although in Kashmir (see map #2) -- does not lie along either the 1949 ceasefire line or along the international Se MSH ace be eat (now Pakistan). SU aon ea DECLASSIFIED ON DECEMBER 31, 1978. ceo SA-NENY AUS WIN 1-TE 70d Yd - YON Oe OKBE Auttesty 23) ay MY ane one? CONFIDENTIAL ae The Pakistanis, who raised the issue, claim that since the territory is in Kashmir the provision of the Simla Agreement providing for a delineation of the line of control should apply to that area with Pakistani troops remaining there. To do otherwise, Pakistan believes, would amount to a tacit recognition that this portion of the Kashmir border 1s the international boundary. The Indians, who assert that this 4s an international boundary, claim that only the areas which changed hands in 1971 along the 1949 ceasefire line are subject to delineation and that Takho Chak is covered by the provisions of the Simla Agreement pertaining to withdrawals to the international border. They have suggested that if Pakistan does not withdraw from Takno Chak, India has no obligation ‘to withdraw from the Phuklean and Sialkot salients in Pakistan,which are on ‘the same Punjab-Kashmir border (see map #2). India feels that acceptance of Pakistan's claim to Takho Chak would be a tacit recognition that all of Kashmir is disputed territory. Answering the Last Questions First: At Simla, the Indians pressed for @ package agreement including a final determination of the status of Kasha ; Pakistan insisted on a step-by-step approach taking first the immediate questions of troop withdrawals and the return of prisoners. leaving the questions of Kashnir and overall Indo-Pakistani relations to be addressed later. The resulting compromise, which provided for » step- by-step tnplenentation of troap withdrawals, was desioned to resolve the Yeast controversial issues and to set aside the more difficult ones. The need to establish @ "line of control” in Kashmir, however, from the beginning threatened to raise this whole controversial subject, at CONFIDENTIALCONFIDENTIAL sii least implicitly, before troop withdrawals could take place. The loca- tion of Takho Chak now has openly inserted the question of Kashmir's status into the troop withdrawal negotiations. The implenentation of the First steps of the Simla Agreement is foundering on the question of Kashmir, which is one of the fundamental problews in Indo-Pakistant relations The 0 Since the status of Kashmir is the basic question Jo at stake, there 1s no likelihood that the present snag can be resolved by the military teams which are negotiating the delineation unless the political leadership takes a hand. Both sides have suggested that a higher level meeting may be necessary to break the impasse, but neither has made a formal proposal or yet demonstrated a sense of urgency. Even at the political level, it will not be easy to find a ay of circumventing this question. The immediate future of the Simla Agreement, therefore, appears to depend on whether Bhutto and Mrs. Gandhi are willing and able to find once more a formula to set aside the pervasive question of Kashnir. INR/Near East and South Asia Deputy Director : Herbert J, tebesry UE analysts > WOH der ey| Eccension —:Eiggg ual! all Released by =: David E. Mark Pe ym,"486, RE TINE TH) KASHMIR fi azno Kasumi / Demarcated or delimited international boundary Indefinite boundary Jammu-Kashmnir boundaryMAJOR TERRITORIAL GAINS IN DECEMBER WAR SUBJECT TO DISPUTE Gains by Indio Gains by Pakietan International boundary Jemmu-Kashrrir boundary CEASE-FIRE “LINE 1948 JAMMU AND KASHMIR Tos TTB STATEIRGE]