292 CHAPTER 7 © Etgodicity Statistics, Estimation, and Simulation chance that the true mean will lie outside the confidence interval, namely, in one of the tho tals beyond the two confidence limits, Since the normal distribution is symmetric then there is a 2.5 percent probability that the true mean will lie within the right tail and percent probability that it will lie within the lft tal Note that we may also have a confidence interval for the sample mean if we know erval is the true mean; that is, th ox \ { ox\ |osot96 (Ya) px +196 [7] 17.439) 1.96(6;..)] 1.96 (65, rnerally not interested in this case, since usually we are estimating the know the confidence interval for the mean, not forthe estimate, We are mean and we want 10 ly distributed random variable with o% = 4.A sample of 100 values Example 7.19| suppose ‘05 percent confidence interval fr taken and the stmple mean is found tobe 10.2. Determine the true mean jy. From [7.4.3.8] the 95 percent confidence interval is fix — 1.96 (2%), fix + fix — 1.96 [as}e Substituting the valves given we find thatthe 95 percent interval is [9:808, 10.592]. The probability thatthe tr mean ies within this interval i 0.95, or 95 perent ‘As noted in Chapter 4, we can determine other constants for the confidence level using the normal distribution. This is summarized in Table 7.1, where we let e=a ‘Thus, for a=0.05, 1-a=0.95, we have e=agos= 1.96. @uiz7.8 Determine the 99 percent confidence interval for Example 7.19, Table 7.1 Confidence level Level of Significance © (= e100% 110086 95 5 196 99 1 32 59.99 001 399 ithe variance of ea need to insure that Thus, we have integer, we bave N Quiz 7.9 What For the previ the mean is unkno variance of the say variance is unknoy terval can be founs not consider this variance, a topic d ;ehave a random can plot the 90 pers This means ths re 7.12 shows & within the confidens 7.5 MAXIN So far we have cov ror estimator, In MLE) method, wi x) Fue 7.12