Fidelity Capital and Income High Yield Fund divided by US Long Treasury Fund= Confidence Indicator

Oct'07

Oct'02
Market

Market
Peak
Low
Co
nfi
de
nc
e Mar'09

De
2000
cli Market

ni
Market
ng

Co
Low

nfi
Peak

de

Ne
nc

w
e

De
De
The Ratio of the low quality high yield Fidelity fund to the High quality lower yield

cli
cli

ne
Vangaurd Treasuries moves down as confidence in the economic outlook is falling,

nin
rises as confidence is improving.

g


Note the turning points (Red and Green Arrows) are coincident with the important market turning points.



Thus this "Confidence Indicator" helps to confirm major tops and bottoms and well as the primary direction.