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INDIANINDIAN EQUITYEQUITY MARKETMARKET OUTLOOKOUTLOOK JUNEJUNE 2009
INDIANINDIAN EQUITYEQUITY
MARKETMARKET OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
JUNEJUNE 2009
DRIVERS OF EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE GlobalGlobal EconomyEconomy Equity Market Equity Market GlobalGlobal
DRIVERS OF EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE
GlobalGlobal EconomyEconomy
Equity Market
Equity Market
GlobalGlobal MarketsMarkets
GlobalGlobal LiquidityLiquidity
Performance
Performance
Domestic
Domestic
Corporate
Corporate
PerformancePerformance
AGENDA • GLOBAL MARKETS • INDIAN MARKETS • CORPORATE PERFORMANCE • GLOBAL ECONOMY • INDIAN
AGENDA
• GLOBAL MARKETS
• INDIAN MARKETS
• CORPORATE PERFORMANCE
• GLOBAL ECONOMY
• INDIAN ECONOMY
• KEY POSITIVES
• MODEL PORTFOLIO
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE IN LAST 12 MONTHS (CHANGE IN %) INDEX VALUE 1 MONTH
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE
IN LAST 12 MONTHS (CHANGE IN %)
INDEX VALUE
1 MONTH
3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS
1 YEAR
1-Jun-09
BRIC ECONOMIES
BRAZIL
54486
15.2
42.7
56.8
(24.9)
RUSSIA
1167
42.3
117.7
87.7
(51.7)
INDIA
14841
30.1
66.9
68.2
(8.6)
CHINA
2721
10.1
31.0
44.1
(19.6)
EMERGING ECONOMIES
ARGENTINA
1656
29.9
62.6
79.9
(23.4)
MEXICO
25106
15 0
.
42 4
.
29 5
.
(
20 3
.
)
THAILAND
580
18.4
38.4
53.6
(26.5)
KOREA
1415
3.3
33.1
33.7
(23.6)
DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
USA
8721
6.7
24.5
8.9
(28.6)
UK
4506
6.9
19.5
13.7
(21.7)
JAPAN
9678
7.8
29.0
16.5
(31.3)
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE IN LAST 2 – 5 YEARS (CHANGE IN %) INDEX VALUE
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE
IN LAST 2 – 5 YEARS (CHANGE IN %)
INDEX VALUE
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
4 YEARS
5 YEARS
1-Jun-09
BRIC ECONOMIES
BRAZIL
54486
2.0
44.3
110.0
178.8
RUSSIA
1167
(34.7)
(17.7)
82.1
120.5
INDIA
14841
4.1
52.7
132.8
229.9
CHINA
2721
(30.4)
67.8
180.4
87.8
EMERGING ECONOMIES
ARGENTINA
1656
(24.6)
0.7
11.8
73.8
MEXICO
25106
(18.2)
38.9
105.6
175.2
THAILAND
580
(15.7)
(6.5)
3.7
13.5
KOREA
1415
(16.3)
11.2
48.7
76.8
DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
USA
8721
(32.4)
(16.1)
(8.3)
(3.1)
UK
4506
(26.1)
(10.9)
5.9
24.8
JAPAN
9678
(44.4)
(35.0)
(10.2)
(9.2)
INDIAN MARKETS IN LAST 12 MONTHS (CHANGE IN %) INDEX VALUE 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
INDIAN MARKETS
IN LAST 12 MONTHS (CHANGE IN %)
INDEX VALUE
1 MONTH
3 MONTHS
6 MONTHS
1 YEAR
1-Jun-09
BROAD INDICES
SENSEX
NIFTY
BSE MID-CAP INDEX
BSE SMALL CAP INDEX
BSE100 INDEX
BSE200 INDEX
BSE500 INDEX
14841
30.1
66.9
68.2
(8.6)
4530
30.4
64.0
69.7
(5.8)
5204
48.2
89.0
83.6
(21.8)
6197
57.3
99.9
88.5
(22.5)
7759
33.7
71.9
73.4
(9.6)
1807
34.9
73.0
74.6
(10.3)
5631
36.1
74.4
75.2
(12.0)
SECTOR INDICES
AUTO
BANK
CAPITAL GOODS
CONSUMER DURABLES
HEALTHCARE
IT
METAL
OIL & GAS
POWER
REALTY
4700
34.4
75.3
112.1
10.1
8188
44.3
93.5
83.7
7.4
12005
51.8
103.7
96.1
(7.9)
2832
61.1
84.0
65.7
(33.8)
3435
12.0
32.7
21.4
(21.0)
3116
17.0
48.7
23.2
(32.0)
11457
66.4
144.3
163.9
(31.3)
10501
29.1
73.2
90.8
2.0
2957
40.0
68.9
89.5
1.9
4036
89.4
185.6
173.1
(41.7)
INDIAN MARKETS IN LAST 2 – 5 YEARS (CHANGE IN %) INDEX VALUE 2 YEARS
INDIAN MARKETS
IN LAST 2 – 5 YEARS (CHANGE IN %)
INDEX VALUE
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
4 YEARS
5 YEARS
1-Jun-09
BROAD INDICES
SENSEX
NIFTY
BSE MID-CAP INDEX
BSE SMALL CAP INDEX
BSE100 INDEX
BSE200 INDEX
BSE500 INDEX
14841
4.1
52.7
132.8
229.9
4530
8.0
59.1
130.6
225.9
5204
(14.8)
13.1
70.6
191.5
6197
(14.7)
6.8
52.2
269.7
7759
5.8
54.4
126.9
225.5
1807
4.2
50.5
114.4
212.7
5631
1.6
45.1
109.4
215.3
SECTOR INDICES
AUTO
BANK
CAPITAL GOODS
CONSUMER DURABLES
HEALTHCARE
IT
METAL
OIL & GAS
POWER
REALTY
4700
(3.8)
8.0
77.0
129.9
8188
9.4
80.7
127.8
267.2
12005
8.2
73.2
244.4
596.4
2832
(30.7)
(2.3)
55.8
253.0
3435
(9.0)
8.1
31.3
61.3
3116
(34.7)
(8.6)
20.4
83.4
11457
12.5
46.3
126.5
259.9
10501
37.7
122.2
257.4
378.6
2957
27.5
84.4
185.7
4036
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A
INDIAN MARKETS PE RATIO (X) INDEX VALUE PE FY09 PE FY10 (E) 1-Jun-09 BROAD INDICES
INDIAN MARKETS
PE RATIO (X)
INDEX VALUE
PE FY09
PE FY10 (E)
1-Jun-09
BROAD INDICES
SENSEX
NIFTY
BSE MID-CAP INDEX
BSE SMALL CAP INDEX
BSE100 INDEX
BSE200 INDEX
BSE500 INDEX
14841
16.0
17.8
4530
16.7
17.4
5204
13.3
12.2
6197
10 6
.
8 3
.
7759
16.8
17.4
1807
16.3
16.6
5631
15.9
15.8
SECTOR INDICES
AUTO
BANK
CAPITAL GOODS
CONSUMER DURABLES
HEALTHCARE
IT
METAL
OIL & GAS
POWER
REALTY
4700
15.6
16.3
8188
13.4
12.9
12005
26.2
22.3
2832
9.4
13.4
3435
35.3
14.8
3116
14.4
15.3
11457
7.8
13.1
10501
17.8
15.6
2957
28.6
23.1
4036
11.9
24.6
GLOBAL ECONOMY Annual GDP Annual GDP Inflation Central Bank Crncy/USD $Bn %YoY %YoY Rate %
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Annual GDP
Annual GDP
Inflation
Central Bank
Crncy/USD
$Bn
%YoY
%YoY
Rate %
BRIC ECONOMIES
CY07
CY07
Current
Current
Current
BRAZIL
1,313
1.3
5.5
10.3
1.9
RUSSIA
1,290
1.2
13.2
12.0
30.8
INDIA
1,177
5.8
0.5
4.8
47.1
CHINA
3,206
6.1
(1.5)
5.3
6.8
EMERGING ECONOMIES
ARGENTINA
262
4.9
5.7
10.2
3.7
MEXICO
1,023
(8.2)
6.2
5.3
13.2
THAILAND
245
(7.1)
(3.3)
1.3
34.2
KOREA
970
(4.2)
3.7
2.9
1245.0
DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
USA
13,751
(2.5)
(0.7)
0.3
1.0
UK
2,772
(4.1)
2.3
0.5
1.6
JAPAN
4,384
(9.7)
(0.1)
0.1
96.8
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
INDIAN ECONOMY – ANNUAL DATA ANNUALDATA(END-MARCH) FY09 FY08 FY07 FY06 FY05 CHANGEYoY% NATIONALINCOME
INDIAN ECONOMY – ANNUAL DATA
ANNUALDATA(END-MARCH)
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
CHANGEYoY%
NATIONALINCOME
GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT
6.7
9.0
9.7
9.5
7.5
AGRICULTURE
4.9
4.0
5.8
0.0
10.0
MANUFACTURING
7.4
10.7
8.1
8.5
6.0
SERVICES
10.8
11.3
11.2
9.9
8.8
CURRENCY
INR/ USD
40.1
43.7
44.6
43.7
43.6
INDIAN ECONOMY – CURRENT DATA MANUFACTURING INDEX (CHG YoY %) Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08
INDIAN ECONOMY – CURRENT DATA
MANUFACTURING INDEX (CHG YoY %)
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MANUFACTURING
MINING
BASIC GOODS
INTERMEDIATE GOODS
CAPITAL GOODS
CONSUMER DURABLE GOODS
NON DURABLE GOODS
ELECTRICITY
(2.30)
(0.70)
0.40
(0.20)
2.50
(0.60)
2.70
(0.60)
6.20
1.70
2.20
0.70
3.20
5.80
2.80
2.00
2.10
3.20
5.00
3.90
(8.90)
(3.90)
(4.40)
(2.50)
(5.50)
6 60
.
0 50
.
4 20
.
20 80
.
0 90
.
(4.20)
0.30
(1.60)
14.70
3.90
3.20
12.40
(0.60)
4.80
7.30
1.60
2.60
4.40
4.40
0.80
MONTHLY CAPITAL INFLOWS
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
FII NET INVESTMENT ($Mn)
FDI NET INVESTMENT ($Mn)
1,791
(1,460)
(775)
(853)
589
1,956
1,466
2,733
1,362
1,083
INDIAN ECONOMY – CURRENT DATA PRICES (CHG YoY %) 23-May-09 16-May-09 9-May-09 2-May-09 25-Apr-09 WHOLESALE
INDIAN ECONOMY – CURRENT DATA
PRICES (CHG YoY %)
23-May-09
16-May-09
9-May-09
2-May-09
25-Apr-09
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
PRIMARY ARTICLES
FUEL, POWER & LIGHT
MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS
0.48
0.61
0.61
0.48
0.70
12.06
11.23
10.81
11.75
11.50
(1.41)
(0.75)
(0.75)
(0.27)
0.48
5.26
6.30
6.53
6.53
7.00
RATES
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
G-SEC 10YR YIELD
6 MONTHS T-BILL
12 MONTHS T-BILL
SBI PLR
REPO
REVERSE REPO
CRR
6.70
6.23
7.01
6.02
6.26
4.70
6.90
7.35
8.90
9.13
4.76
6.84
7.45
9.10
9.19
13.00
13.00
13.75
13.75
13.75
6.50
7.50
8.00
9.00
9.00
5.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.50
5.50
6.50
9.00
8.75
Growth slowdown expected GDP Growth Rate 10 9 8 6.7 6.8 6 4 2 0
Growth slowdown expected
GDP Growth Rate
10
9
8
6.7
6.8
6
4
2
0
FY08
FY09
FY10 (E)
Slowdown already being witnessed FY08 FY09 10 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.8 7.9 7.6 8 5
Slowdown already being witnessed
FY08
FY09
10
9.1
9.1
8.9
8.8
7.9
7.6
8
5 8
.
6
5.3
4
2
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Growth rates for all four quarters in FY09 lower than FY08.
CORPORATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE STUDY OF BSE500 COMPANIES PROFITABILITY HAS IMPROVED FY03 FY07 FY08 30 25
CORPORATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE
STUDY OF BSE500 COMPANIES
PROFITABILITY HAS IMPROVED
FY03
FY07
FY08
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
EBITDA M (%)
PA TM(%)
SOURCE: CMIE DATABASE
CORPORATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE STUDY OF BSE500 COMPANIES STRONGER BALANCE SHEET FY03 FY07 FY08 FY03 FY07
CORPORATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE
STUDY OF BSE500 COMPANIES
STRONGER BALANCE SHEET
FY03
FY07
FY08
FY03
FY07
FY08
3
1.2
2.5
1
2
0.8
1.5
0.6
1
0.4
0.2
0.5
0
0
D/E RATIO (X)
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO (X)
SOURCE: CMIE DATABASE
CORPORATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE STUDY OF BSE500 COMPANIES GREATER SHAREHOLDER WEALTH CREATION FY03 FY07 FY08 25
CORPORATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE
STUDY OF BSE500 COMPANIES
GREATER SHAREHOLDER WEALTH CREATION
FY03
FY07
FY08
25
20
15
10
5
0
ROE (%)
SOURCE: CMIE DATABASE
KEY POSITIVES • Size & scale of India’s corporate sector – 219 companies in BSE
KEY POSITIVES
• Size & scale of India’s corporate sector
– 219 companies in BSE 500 made PAT >Rs.100crs in FY08, as
compared to 90 companies in FY03.
No. of BSE500 companies with PAT >Rs.100crs
MFG C os
FIN C os
33
250
200
32
150
100
186
50
58
0
FY03
FY08
KEY POSITIVES • Positive infrastructure spending outlook – Outstanding project investments [OPI] as % to
KEY POSITIVES
• Positive infrastructure spending outlook
– Outstanding project investments [OPI] as % to GDP stood at 128%
in FY08 as compared to 56% in FY03.
FY2003
FY2007
FY2008
@ CURRENT MKT PRICES | RS. LAKH CRS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [GDP]
OUTSTANDING PROJECT INVESTMENTS [OPI]
24.55
41.46
47.13
13.73
42.53
60.39
SOURCE: CMIE DATABASE
OPI/GDP
140.0
128.1
120.0
102.6
100.0
80.0
60.0
55.9
40.0
20.0
FY2003
FY2007
FY2008
KEY POSITIVES • One of the highest Investment & Savings rate ~ second only to
KEY POSITIVES
• One of the highest Investment & Savings rate
~ second only to China. (Source: IMF)
GCF/GDP
GDS/GDP
40 . 0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0

25.2

26.4

35.9

34.8

33 .9

36 . 2

5.0 ‐ FY2003 FY2007 FY2008
5.0
FY2003
FY2007
FY2008
KEY POSITIVES • Strong domestic consumption – Domestic consumption 70% of GDP – Large farming
KEY POSITIVES
• Strong domestic consumption
– Domestic consumption 70% of GDP
– Large farming population to benefit from good
monsoons this year
– Impact of 6 th Pay Commission
MODEL PORTFOLIO Sector / Index UTI Banking Sector Fund , UTI Nifty Index Fund 10-15%
MODEL PORTFOLIO
Sector / Index
UTI Banking Sector Fund ,
UTI Nifty Index Fund
10-15%
Thematic
25-35%
UTI Infrastructure Fund
UTI Energy Fund
Specialty
20-30%
Diversified
UTI Opportunities Fund
UTI Dividend Yield Fund
Diversified /
ELSS
35-40%
UTI Mastershare
UTI ETSP
The model portfolio is based on our internal views.
ANNEXURE FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 % TO GDP GCF/GDP 25.2 28.2 32.2 35.5
ANNEXURE
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
% TO GDP
GCF/GDP
25.2
28.2
32.2
35.5
35.9
33.9
GDS/GDP
26.4
29.8
31.8
34.3
34.8
36.2
PFS/GDP
10.3
11.4
10.1
11.8
11.3
6.8
PAT/GDP
3.1
4.6
5.2
5.7
6.4
5.9
OPI/GDP
55.9
54.2
61.0
76.6
102.6
128.1
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
@ CURRENT MKT PRICES | RSCR
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [GDP]
GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION [GCF]
2,454,561 2,754,621 3,149,412 3,580,344 4,145,810
4,713,148
619,485
775,647 1,013,761 1,271,953 1,487,786
1,598,078
GROSS DOMESTIC SAVINGS [GDS] 647,970 821,027 1,000,424 1,227,348 1,441,423 1,706,160
PRIVATE FINANCIAL SAVINGS [PFS] 253,255 313,260 318,264 420,841 467,985 322,242
CORPORATE PROFITS [PAT]* $ 76,183 128,031 165,119 204,029 264,110 279,849
OUTSTANDING PROJECT INVESTMENTS [OPI] 1,373,223 1,493,313 1,920,639 2,743,510 4,252,755
6,039,482
SOURCE: CSO | CMIE
* FOR ALL COMPANIES COVERED BY CMIE PROWESS DATABASE
NUMBER OF COMPANIES COVERED BY CMIE
$ PAT FOR FY08 UPDATED FOR 684 COMPANIES ONLY
10844
11644
11305
10226
7433
1566
Risk Factors REGISTERED OFFICE: UTI Tower, 'Gn' Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai -
Risk Factors
REGISTERED OFFICE: UTI Tower, 'Gn' Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai - 400051. Tel: 66786666.
STATUTORY DETAILS: UTI Mutual Fund has been set up as a Trust under the Indian Trust Act, 1882. SPONSORS:
State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Life Insurance Corporation of India (liability of sponsors
limited to Rs. 10,000/-). INVESTMENT MANAGER: UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. (Incorporated under the
Companies Act, 1956). TRUSTEE: UTI Trustee Co. (P) Ltd. (Incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956). RISK
FACTORS: All investment in mutual funds and securities are subject to market risks and the NAV of the funds may go
up or down depending upon the factors and forces affecting the securities markets. There can be no assurance that the
scheme objectives will be achieved. Past performance of the sponsors/Mutual Fund/Scheme(s)/AMC is not necessarily
indicative of future results. The name of the schemes of UTI Mutual Fund and does not in any manner indicative the
quality of the scheme; its future prospects and returns. There may be instances where no income distribution could be
made. Realization of all the assurances and promises made, if any, are subject to the laws of the land as they exist at
any relevant point of time. The scheme is subject to risk relating to Credit, Interest Rates, Illiquidity, Judgement Error,
Interest Rate, Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements. Please contact the nearest UTI Mutual Fund branch, Chief
Representative or Agent for copy of Key Information Memorandum cum Application Form and Office Document. Please
read Offer Document carefully before investing.
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