Afghanistan Lecture:

Seth Gannon
John Warden

Fundementals of Afghanistan:
- After 9-11 we tracked the Taliban and Al Queda back to Afghanistan and we took over
power from the Taliban and the other various warlords
o It can debated whether it has gotten better or worse
- It is bordering Pakistan
o It is hard to control the border regions between the two countries
 There is a large border between the two countries, it has the largest border
 This makes it so people can easily go across the border making it easy for
terrorists to cross
 This creates a tactical difficulty for the US
- Since 2003 the amount of wars, bombings, and attacks continuously increased to 2009
o This occurred because the fact that the but focused all of hit efforts to Iraq and we
disregarded Iraq
o In 2009 the Obama administration proposed a surge to troops in Afghanistan of
30,000, which will be up to 100,000 by 2010
- The Afghanistan government is controlled by Karzai
- The border between iran and Afghanistan is secure and no one crosses whereas the border
between Pakistan and Afghanistan have fairly undefined border
- Afghanistan is a Haven for terrorists
o It is a base in which they can plan and then move over to Pakistan and begin to
cause problems
- The amounts of IED attacks in Afghanistan has exponentially increased from 2005 to
2009
o Two fronts for this:
 For neg: If we leave we will lose our ability to destroy the IEDs
 For aff: If we leave no one will use the IEDs
o THe status quo US strategy is currently failing in removing IEDs because we
have maintained a stable amount of IEDs removed but there is still the same
amount of IEDs that still go off
- Poppy is the number one cash crop in Afghanistan
o The majority of the poppy is produced in the south, the area in which the Taliban
controls
 This enables the Taliban to fund missions
o Helman providence has the number one amount of Poppy productions with more
than 20,000 Hectares of Poppy.
 It is hard to shut it down in these regions because there is such a high
magnitude of poppy
o Before, we flew planes over with chemicals to destroy the cops
 Some of the farmers are huge supporters of the Taliban
 Others only grew it to make a livelihood, so the Taliban could give them
money
  Instead of eradicating the durgs the US if focusing more on Judge
interdictions, so they are taking out people who are selling the illegal drug
and they are also helping people make the switch over to other crops like
wheat
o The eradication has lead to quite a few attacks
- The allied efforts in Afghanistan is unorganized and split up between too many countries
o It is way too unorganized and made such that countries don’t know if they are
interdicting in another countries ground
o Too much complexity between nations
o A major question is if the US were to leave would all the countries work together
in order to unify OR would the countries all just leave
o Also leaving takes a lot of coordination
- Impact of Civilian Casualties:
o The battle over the “Hearts and Minds” comes down to civilian casualites
 If we kill civilians they turn to the terroists and are against the terrorists
 This happens a lot during weddings
 These happen from drones
 If we use less troops there is less reliance on drones that kill
civilians – Squo is counter productive
 A major part of the topic will come down to civilians
o Monthly as we improve our efforts everything gets wors because being good isn’t
good enough
 In July of 2009 the US found out that the violence stemmed from the
hearts and minds and their efforts to save civilians made the situation
worse
 A major area of debate will be remove v. reform in Afghanistan
 What will be more successful? Removing troops or reforming our
policies
- The US is working in conjunction with the ANSF
o The goals for the amount of the ANSF is increasing year to year
 The goal for 2013 is 240,000 ANSF troops
 The goal is to begin withdrawal by 2011
o If we remove troops now the ANSF wont be ready for withdrawal because they
don’t have enough troops
o Possible aff: The USFG should withdraw on the Obama timetable
- Kandahar:
o 2nd largest city/state in Afghanistan
o Home of the Pashtun
 Cooperate with Al Qaeda
o Taliban spiritual home
o Strategic trading crossroads
o Historic significance
 Controlled mainly by warlords
 Not much peace or a central/stable government
o Home of a large black market
 o The main goal of the US upon entry was to kick the Taliban out
 Even if we could isolate the Taliban we would have to find a way to work
with the Pashtun
 We would have to find a way to integrate the Pashtun into the
governmental goals
 A major problem is that a major amount of these warlords used to
be in the Taliban or are in the Taliban
 If we don’t isolate the Pashtun somehow then there wont be an effective
solution
- Is 2011 too early?
o Yes
 We cant successfully remove troops until we have the area under control
 Afghan forces need to be at a good level
 Roads and the area has to be fully developed
- How to apply this into the debate:
o Aff
 A basic argument is the more troops we have there the worse off we are
because whenever we have troops there, there will always be civilian
casualties leading to people getting pissed
 Also us being there, there is a symbol that the US is taking over and
people want to go against us
 So as long as we are there bad shit happens
 Presence = Bad
 If the aff is tied to activities the neg can cp for reform
 As long as the US has troops there countries will get lazy and not want to
work, ie. If the us leaves Afghanistan will boost their forces
 Another argument is that we need to draw down our troops in Afghanistan
in order to move them to other places
 If the US has a large military presence there will be less likelihood of wars
creating in those regions
 Military Presence mainly defined as bases/troops
 Possible aff is Drones
 Battle rifle that causes cancer
 Basically tiny different weapons to get rid of but maybe untopical
 PMCs possible affirmative
 Is that considered US military presence
 Increase or Decrease PMCs
 Police Presence
 Gives the aff the ability to press the bounds of topicality
 PMCs may not count as military but may be considered as police
o Neg
 If you take out troops the country becomes unstable
 We can give off a signal that the US is weak and will fail to solve heg
 Conditions CP
 TONS O’ PICs
 Ks
 Security