Burgundy INVESTMENT Perspective presentation-Apr-June 2015 - 01 PDF

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES
V I E W S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S
A PRIL - J U NE, 2015
MARKET OVERVIEW
Indian equity markets continued their positive streak during the quarter
Markets remained volatile during the quarter due to key events like Union Budget, RBI policy action and monetary actions by
ECB and US Fed. The Q3 corporate results turned out to be a disappointment which further added to market volatility
Large Caps outperformed both Mid Caps and Small Caps during the quarter
Union Budget for FY 16 was presented in the back drop of huge expectations. The Union Budget was a step in the right
direction by boosting infrastructure investments, encouraging financial savings, taking measures to ease business and
maintaining fiscal credibility in the medium term
We are positive on the equity markets on the back of reforms push agenda of the government, improving macro domestic
& external factors and likely re-rating of India
RBI also provided couple of off-cycle rate cuts (in Jan & Mar) of 25 bps each driven by strong disinflationary force and
expectation of better than reported fiscal consolidation
We maintain our outlook on Indian equity markets of Marginal Overweight. Investors can accumulate equities from a 3 to 5
year perspective
Bond yields could fall further in the medium to long term on the back of decline in inflation
Investors with an investment horizon of at least 18 to 24 months can look at investing in long term income, gilt and dynamic
bond funds
Short term income funds can be recommended for investors with an investment horizon of at least 12 to 18 months
We are positive from a medium to long term perspective with a pro-active inflation targeting RBI and a credible government
at the Centre
INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
EQUITY MARKET RECAP

Sensex gained by 3.6% during 1st January 2015 to 15th March 2015, the Mid Cap index gained by 3.4%, while Small Cap Index lost 0.13%
On the sector front, the gainers between 1st January 2015 to 15th March 2015 were Healthcare (14.8%), Capital Goods (12.1%) & Realty
(11.6%), while Metal (-10.7%), Oil &Gas (-4.9%) and Bankex (0.23%) were laggards
Among Sensex stocks Hindustan Unilever (24.2%), Sun Pharma (22.8%) & HDFC (18.2%) were the top performers during 1st January 2015
to 15th March 2015. While Tata Steel (-19.3%), Bajaj Auto (-17.6%) & Hindalco (-17%) were laggards
During 1st January 2015 to 15th March 2015, FIIs were net buyers of equity to the tune of `44,433 Cr, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of
`6,091 Cr and the domestic MFs bought `8,483 cr worth of equity
EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

Equity markets continued to track both domestic and global cues during the quarter
As per the Economy Survey 2015, India is in a sweet spot due to lower deficits and high growth. It projected Indias GDP for FY 16 in
the range of 8.1-8.5%. As per IMF, India is poised to be the fastest growing economy in the world overtaking China
Inflation (CPI: 5.37%) was also within RBIs Jan 2016 CPI target of 6%
Globally, ECB started its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in March to arrest slide in growth and inflation in the Euro Zone. US Fed in its
recent minutes signalled that it is likely to raise interest rates at some point in 2015
With the major event of Budget behind, the Govt is likely to take steps such as implementation of GST, plugging the subsidy leakages using
Adhaar and Direct Benefit Transfer, enhance industrialization etc. to steer the economy on growth path
SEBIs reforms to allow raising municipal bonds, conversion of bad loans into equity would help deepen the financial markets and attract more
foreign inflows in the country
The next event lined up for the markets is Q4FY15 results and guidance (if any) given by the corporates about future. We expect the Q4 results
to be muted and ~20% CAGR growth over next 2 years
We maintain our outlook of Marginal Overweight on Indian markets. At current levels we recommend accumulating equities with a 3 to
5 year investment perspective
Large Cap, Diversified equity and Mid and small cap mutual funds are advisable
EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS
Marginal Overweight
OVERALL VIEW ON EQUITY

MARKET CAPITALISATION VIEW
HIGH CONVICTION STOCK IDEAS
LARGE CAP STOCKS
MID-CAP STOCKS
SMALL-CAP STOCKS
Marginal Overweight
Marginal Overweight
Marginal Overweight
COMPANY NAME
DISH TV LTD.
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.
CMP*
TARGET PRICE
`77
`96
`1,670
`2,000
* Source: Axis Direct
*CMP is the Current Market Price as on 20th March 2015.

High Conviction Stocks recommended with an Investment horizon of 12 months and above.
DIVERSIFIED EQUITY FUNDS
PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
AXIS EQUITY FUND
41.65
26.78
23.39
BIRLA SUN LIFE EQUITY FUND
60.70
36.39
26.85
BIRLA SUN LIFE LONG TERM ADVANTAGE FUND
57.57
34.88
25.95
FRANKLIN INDIA HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES FUND
84.49
46.40
35.45
FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS FUND
60.25
34.90
26.21
HDFC CAPITAL BUILDER FUND
51.17
32.99
24.29
ICICI PRUDENTIAL DYNAMIC PLAN
38.64
29.02
21.47
KOTAK SELECT FOCUS FUND
59.55
35.38
27.20
RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES FUND
61.35
34.61
27.88
CNX 500
41.79
24.44
18.03
CATEGORY*
56.61
32.52
23.55
*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.

Data Source: ACE MF
LARGE CAP EQUITY FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
AXIS FOCUSED 25 FUND
47.78
25.97
BIRLA SUNLIFE FRONTLINE EQUITY FUND
49.05
30.08
25.22
BIRLA SUNLIFE TOP 100 FUND
49.90
31.59
24.96
ICICI PRUDENTIAL FOCUSED BLUECHIP EQUITY FUND
43.98
28.54
21.92
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 FUND
39.66
27.23
21.10
SBI BLUECHIP FUND
54.09
31.15
27.11
SBI MAGNUM EQUITY FUND
45.78
26.11
20.70
UTI EQUITY FUND
50.36
30.67
23.50
UTI OPPORTUNITIES FUND
43.74
27.47
19.96
CNX NIFTY
33.18
21.57
16.78
CATEGORY*
43.80
26.77
20.73

Data Source: ACE MF
SMALL & MIDCAP EQUITY FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
AXIS MIDCAP FUND
79.54
42.40
34.60
FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA FUND
81.96
46.70
35.54
FRANKLIN INDIA SMALLER COMPANIES FUND
90.22
54.84
41.59
HDFC SMALL AND MID-CAP FUND
48.42
31.23
23.62
ICICI PRUDENTIAL VALUE DISCOVERY FUND
81.06
45.16
33.83
SBI MAGNUM GLOBAL FUND - 1994
76.16
42.92
32.82
UTI MIDCAP FUND
88.65
55.52
37.55
CNX MIDCAP
63.30
30.47
18.87
CATEGORY*
80.92
45.05
32.41

Data Source: ACE MF
EQUITY LINKED SAVINGS SCHEMES (ELSS)
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
AXIS LONG TERM EQUITY FUND
70.70
47.21
35.64
DSP BLACK ROCK TAX SAVER FUND
56.55
33.39
26.00
FRANKLIN INDIA TAXSHIELD
59.86
34.87
25.90
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TAX PLAN
54.35
34.54
25.99
SBI MAGNUM TAXGAIN SCHEME 1993
53.26
33.64
25.11
CNX 500
41.79
24.44
18.03
CATEGORY*
58.94
34.95
25.80

Data Source: ACE MF
BALANCED FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
BIRLA SUN LIFE 95 FUND
49.85
28.91
22.42
FRANKLIN INDIA BALANCED FUND
48.65
29.47
22.30
HDFC BALANCED FUND
51.85
32.66
22.75
ICICI PRUDENTIAL BALANCED FUND
46.06
29.57
23.90
SBI MAGNUM BALANCED FUND
48.70
30.56
25.83
TATA BALANCED FUND
59.46
33.76
26.38
CRISIL BALANCE FUND INDEX
27.61
17.56
15.06
CATEGORY*
47.15
27.98
21.60

Data Source: ACE MF
DEBT AND MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

Lower crude prices improve macros: limits CAD, eases subsidy burden and keeps inflation benign
INFLATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
RBI cuts off-cycle again: Repo rate lowered by

25 bps to 7.50%
IIP growth in FY15 (YTD January) at 2.5% despite

Consumer Durables segment contracting 14%
CPI inflation though rises marginally in February, contained

at 5.4% YoY, Core inflation remains flat at 4.2%
Adoption of monetary policy framework with inflation at
4% +/-2%: Gradual decline over next 2 years, if realised,
allows room for further cuts
Improvement in Basic Goods (especially electricity) and

Capital Goods support growth
CURRENT ACCOUNT
DEFICIT
Q3 CAD at 1.6% of GDP on increase in services

surplus and lower investment outflow
Lower cost of oil (net) imports matched by

increased gold imports in Q3. Increase in
banking capital drives BOP surplus
Low trade deficit for Jan and Feb at USD 7.3bn
and USD 6.8bn, respectively, suggests a marginal
CAD in Q3 given exports spike in March
FISCAL DEFICIT
Passage of Insurance, Coal and Minerals related bills

sets Govts reforms ball rolling
Fiscal deficit target at 3.9% though higher than fiscal
consolidation path; higher capital expenditure and support
for reforms augurs well for Indias rating quality and rates
positives
10
INR
Excessively strong INR also likely to have played

a part in RBIs unscheduled easing
One measure sees INR as strong as in Apr 2013,
ahead of taper led sell-off
11
DEBT MARKET OUTLOOK

AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Yields on benchmark 10 yr paper (8.40% 2024) found support at 7.65%-7.70% despite the surprise rate cut by RBI
PSU banks were seen selling paper, while there was limited interest from other traders in current year
GOI carried out debt switch with FY16 paper on RBI balance sheet. Limited OMO sale stock (FY17 and 18 papers only just enough for debt switch)
increase longer run supply
GOI H1 issuance calendar is at Rs. 3.6 tn, with higher supply of long end paper. 40 year paper sale is envisioned
Further cuts of 25-50 bps are likely in FY16, subject to continued reforms, progress on high quality consolidation, pass- through of past rate cuts, a
supportive monsoon and stable external conditions
Liquidity is likely to remain neutral in Q4, as RBI FX intervention is matched by government cash absorption to meet fiscal targets, as well as by seasonal
currency leakages. Liquidity is expected to improve sharply in mid Q1 2015, requiring RBI to absorb this through OMO sales
Despite the higher fiscal deficit announced in the Budget, the net borrowings for FY16 remain largely flat. The demand- supply dynamics for G-Secs
looks favourable for FY 16
Yields may be range bound in the near term. However, we are positive from a medium to long term perspective with a pro-active inflation targeting
RBI and a credible government at the Centre
Investors who have an investment horizon of at least 18 to 24 months can look at investing in long term income and gilt funds and dynamic bond funds
Investors can look at short term income funds with an investment horizon of at least 12 to 18 months
Short term funds, via active fund management, can take advantage of current yields by investing in G-Secs, corp. bonds, CPs & CDs to gain from high
accruals & capital appreciation, if any
12
11
DEBT FUND RECOMMENDATIONS
LONG-TERM INCOME FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
AXIS INCOME FUND
15.30
9.80
IDFC SUPER SAVER INCOME FUND - INVESTMENT PLAN
15.81
9.46
10.39
KOTAK MAHINDRA BOND UNIT SCHEME 99
15.76
8.29
9.40
SBI MAGNUM INCOME FUND
13.22
7.71
9.44
TATA INCOME FUND
13.35
9.74
10.31
UTI BOND FUND
16.59
9.27
10.08
CRISIL COMPOSITE BOND FUND INDEX
14.88
9.25
9.26
CATEGORY*
15.31
9.01
9.70

Data Source: ACE MF
13
LONG-TERM GILT FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
BIRLA SUNLIFE GOVT. SECURITIES LONG TERM FUND
18.32
9.61
10.29
IDFC GOVERNMENT SECURITIES FUND - INVESTMENT PLAN
17.02
10.48
11.49
KOTAK MAHINDRA GILT UNIT SCHEME 98 - INVESTMENT PLAN
18.13
8.18
9.67
RELIANCE GILT SECURITIES FUND
19.05
10.45
11.11
SBI MAGNUM GILT FUND - LONG TERM
21.36
12.83
12.45
TATA GILT SECURITIES FUND
18.14
11.19
10.83
CRISIL 10 YEAR GILT INDEX
14.11
6.34
7.50
CATEGORY*
18.41
9.84
10.09

Data Source: ACE MF
3 YEARS
14
DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
BIRLA SUNLIFE DYNAMIC BOND FUND
15.40
10.95
10.79
HDFC HIGH INTEREST FUND
16.95
10.64
10.64
IDFC DYNAMIC BOND FUND
15.69
9.23
10.34
RELIANCE DYNAMIC BOND FUND
15.75
9.76
10.41
UTI DYNAMIC BOND FUND
14.82
11.07
10.88
CRISIL COMPOSITE BOND FUND INDEX
14.88
9.25
9.26
CATEGORY*
15.18
9.86
10.24

Data Source: ACE MF
15
MIPS - AGGRESSIVE FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
AXIS INCOME SAVER
21.42
14.19
11.95
BIRLA SUNLIFE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN II - WEALTH 25 PLAN
29.06
19.08
15.73
FRANKLIN INDIA MONTHLY INCOME PLAN
23.56
15.27
13.60
ICICI PRUDENTIAL MIP 25
25.16
15.75
13.82
IDFC MONTHLY INCOME PLAN
21.17
12.76
12.88
RELIANCE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN
25.02
14.84
13.06
CRISIL MIP BLENDED INDEX
17.43
10.95
10.50
CATEGORY*
22.66
14.42
12.76

Data Source: ACE MF
16
MIPS - CONSERVATIVE FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 YEAR
2 YEARS
3 YEARS
BIRLA SUNLIFE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN II - SAVINGS 5 PLAN
18.44
12.35
11.39
ICICI PRUDENTIAL MONTHLY INCOME PLAN
21.16
13.31
11.98
SBI MAGNUM INCOME PLAN
20.30
11.98
12.09
CRISIL MIP BLENDED INDEX
17.43
10.95
10.50
CATEGORY*
18.50
12.18
11.10

Data Source: ACE MF
17
SHORT-TERM INCOME FUNDS - AGGRESSIVE
FUND NAME
9 MONTHS
I YEAR
10.41
11.20
9.35
TATA SHORT TERM BOND FUND
9.56
10.67
9.76
UTI SHORT TERM INCOME FUND
9.88
11.01
9.61
CRISIL SHORT TERM BOND FUND INDEX
9.80
10.49
9.54
CATEGORY*
9.96
11.08
9.30
AXIS FIXED INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FUND

HDFC SHORT TERM PLAN

Data Source: ACE MF
2 YEARS
-
18
SHORT-TERM INCOME FUNDS - CONSERVATIVE
FUND NAME
9 MONTHS
I YEAR
2 YEARS
AXIS SHORT TERM FUND
9.32
10.03
8.75
BIRLA SUNLIFE SHORT TERM FUND
9.92
11.08
9.76
HDFC SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES FUND
9.61
10.45
9.51
CRISIL SHORT TERM BOND FUND INDEX
9.62
10.52
9.34
CATEGORY*
9.53
10.57
9.08

Data Source: ACE MF
19
LIQUID FUNDS
FUND NAME
1 MONTH
3 MONTHS
6 MONTHS
AXIS LIQUID FUND
8.43
8.46
8.65
BIRLA SUNLIFE CASH PLUS
8.43
8.45
8.63
HDFC LIQUID FUND
8.46
8.46
8.64
ICICI PRUDENTIAL LIQUID FUND
8.44
8.47
8.65
KOTAK FLOATER - SHORT TERM
8.49
8.48
8.66
RELIANCE LIQUID FUND - TREASURY PLAN
8.45
8.45
8.63
RELIANCE LIQUIDITY FUND
8.45
8.44
8.61
SBI PREMIER LIQUID FUND
8.43
8.41
8.59
UTI LIQUID FUND - CASH PLAN
8.39
8.43
8.61
CRISIL LIQUID FUND INDEX
9.03
8.35
8.56
CATEGORY*
8.22
8.22
8.39

Data Source: ACE MF
20
ULTRA SHORT-TERM FUNDS - CONSERVATIVE
FUND NAME
1 MONTH
3 MONTHS
6 MONTHS
9.43
8.13
9.07
10.46
9.11
9.57
ICICI PRUDENTIAL FLEXIBLE INCOME PLAN
9.81
8.37
9.02
RELIANCE MONEY MANAGER FUND
9.68
7.86
8.41
TATA FLOATER FUND
9.39
8.29
8.76
UTI TREASURY ADVANTAGE FUND
8.53
8.52
9.05
9.03
8.35
8.56
CATEGORY*
9.23
8.16
8.85
BIRLA SUNLIFE SAVINGS FUND

FRANKLIN INDIA ULTRA SHORT BOND FUND

Data Source: ACE MF
21
ULTRA SHORT-TERM FUNDS - MODERATE
FUND NAME
3 MONTHS
6 MONTHS
10.73
9.35
9.80
7.45
8.06
8.79
9.03
8.35
8.56
CATEGORY*
9.37
9.17
9.37
FRANKLIN INDIA LOW DURATION FUND

HDFC FLOATING RATE INCOME FUND - LONG TERM PLAN

Data Source: ACE MF
1 MONTH
22
SPECIAL ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP and Inflation in New Series
GDP
INFLATION - CPI
GDP revision aligns methodology to international standard
Base year revised to 2011-12 (New Series) from

previous 2004-05 (Old Series)
GDP growth now refers to growth in GDP (GVA +
Indirect taxes) at Market Prices compared to growth in
GVA (Gross Value Added) in Old Series
Absolute GDP revised lower in New Series for FY12 to
FY14, however, growth rates move up
New Series has increased coverage of companies and
incorporation of results of latest surveys on
Consumption, Employment, Economic units, and Debt
FY15 growth in New Series at 7.4% (Advance
Estimate); Industry and Services more than offset
weak Agriculture growth
CPI revision aligns consumption basket to latest

consumption pattern
Base year revised from 2010 to 2012 (based on
consumption pattern of 2012)
Weight of food in New Series lower at 45.9% (compared
to 47.6% in Old Series), Fuel & Light lower at 6.8% (9.5%
in OS) while that of Services is higher at 28.3% (26.3% in OS)
Resorts to Geometric mean instead of Arithmetic mean:
Lowers volatility and biases price readings downwards
by capturing shift to consuming lower variety products
during periods of price spikes
Headline Inflation reading lower in New Series in Dec 14
at 4.3% YoY (compared to 4.9% in Old series) primarily
due to lower inflation in Housing segment
23
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from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable and hence considered true, correct, reliable and accurate but Axis Bank does not guarantee or represent (expressly or impliedly) that the
same are true, correct, reliable and accurate, not misleading or as to its genuineness, fitness for the purpose intended and it should not be relied upon as such. The opinion expressed (including estimates, facts,
figures and forecasts) is given as of the date of this document is subject to change without providing any prior notice of intimation. Axis Bank shall have the rights to make any kind of changes and alterations
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or solicitation for dealing (purchase or sale) of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Axis Bank or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be answerable or responsible
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INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE

EQUITY MARKET RECAP

EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS

OVERALL VIEW ON EQUITY

HIGH CONVICTION STOCK IDEAS

LARGE CAP STOCKS

* Source: Axis Direct

*CMP is the Current Market Price as on 20th March 2015.

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS

DIVERSIFIED EQUITY FUNDS

PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)

AXIS EQUITY FUND

BIRLA SUN LIFE EQUITY FUND

BIRLA SUN LIFE LONG TERM ADVANTAGE FUND

FRANKLIN INDIA HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES FUND

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS FUND

HDFC CAPITAL BUILDER FUND

ICICI PRUDENTIAL DYNAMIC PLAN

KOTAK SELECT FOCUS FUND

RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES FUND

*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS

LARGE CAP EQUITY FUNDS

PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)

AXIS FOCUSED 25 FUND

BIRLA SUNLIFE FRONTLINE EQUITY FUND

BIRLA SUNLIFE TOP 100 FUND

ICICI PRUDENTIAL FOCUSED BLUECHIP EQUITY FUND

ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 FUND

SBI BLUECHIP FUND

SBI MAGNUM EQUITY FUND

UTI EQUITY FUND

UTI OPPORTUNITIES FUND

*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS

SMALL & MIDCAP EQUITY FUNDS

PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)

AXIS MIDCAP FUND

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA FUND

FRANKLIN INDIA SMALLER COMPANIES FUND

HDFC SMALL AND MID-CAP FUND

ICICI PRUDENTIAL VALUE DISCOVERY FUND

SBI MAGNUM GLOBAL FUND - 1994

UTI MIDCAP FUND

*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015

EQUITY BASED RECOMMENDATIONS

EQUITY LINKED SAVINGS SCHEMES (ELSS)

PAST PERFORMANCE (CAGR% RETURNS AS ON 15th MARCH, 2015)

AXIS LONG TERM EQUITY FUND

DSP BLACK ROCK TAX SAVER FUND

FRANKLIN INDIA TAXSHIELD

ICICI PRUDENTIAL TAX PLAN

SBI MAGNUM TAXGAIN SCHEME 1993

*Category refers to Axis Banks internally defined peer group average.

INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES APRIL, 2015