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ANALISIS KARAKTERISTIK
DAN POTENSI SERTA
KEBUTUHAN DAERAH
Drs. Ahmad Jamli, M.A.

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SDA
Potensi dan
Kebutuhan
Daerah

Pemanfaatan

SDM
S&D

Elasticity
Tools ICOR
S
(saving)

Financing

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Indikator Ekonomi Daerah

Real
GDRP
and
Components
Consumption
Goods
Sevice

Its

Key Indicator
Retail Sales
Consumer installment credit
Personal income and spending
Employment report
New claims for unemployment
insurance
Consumer confidence and
sentiment surveys
ADP National Employment
Report
Real earnings
Auto sales
Chain store sales

Key Indicator

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Nonresidential

Business
Fixed
Investment

-Industrial production
-Capacity utilization
-Orders for durable
goods
-ISM surveys
-Factory orders
-Manufacturers
shipments, inventories,
and others
Housing starts
-New single-family home
sales
-Existing home sales
-MBA mortgage
applications
-MBA survey on home
building
-

Residential

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Key Indicators
Change in business
inventories

Government Spending

Net exports

Manufacturing and trade

inventories

Construction spending
APBD

International trade
Current account balance

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Signs of Price Pressures

Key Indicators

Inflation

Consumer price index

Producer price index
Employment cost index
Non-farm productivity
Unit labor cost
Import and export prices
Employer cost for
employee compensation

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Attributes of Economic Indicator

Timelines
for
indicator

Accuracy

The
business
cycle stage
Degree of
interest

Predictive
ability

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COUNTRY PFOFIL INDONESIA 2010

People

The economy
GDP
GDP
Average annual growth in real
GDP 2002-07
GDP per head
GDP per head in ppp (USA = 100)

Rp 3.957 triliun
$433 milyar
6,1%

No. of men per 100 women 100

Economic freedom index

53,4

HDI
Life expentacy : men
women

72,6
68,7 tahun
72,7 tahun

Origins of GDP
Agriculture
Industry, of which : manufacturing

Adult literacy
Fertility rate (per woman)

92%
2

services
Components of GDP

% of total
13,7
46,8
27,1
39,5
% of total

Urban population
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate

50,4%
21
6,3

Private consumption
Public consumption
Investment
Exports
Imports

63,6
8,3
24,9
29,4
-25,4

Population
Population per km2
Average annual growth in
population 2010-15
Population under 15
Population over 60

228,1 juta
119,8
0,98%
27%
8,8%

$1,290
8,1

Structure of employment

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Inflation and finance

% of total

Consumer price inflation 2008

Agriculture

45

Average annual inflation

9,3%

Industry

18

Money market rate, 2008

8,48%

services

37

Average annual increase 200207

%of labour
force

Narrow money (M1)

19,8%

unmployed

9,1

Broad money

13,4%

Average annual rate 1995-2007

7,4

Exchange rate

Energy

10,3%

End 2008
m TOE

Rp per $

10.950

Total output

307,7

Rp per SDR

16.866

Total consumption

179,1

Rp per

15.242

Consumption per head, kg oil

eqiuvalent

803

Net energy imports as % of

energy use

-72

Trade

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Principal export

Principal imports
$ bn fob

$ bn cif

Garment & textiles

9,8

Intermediate goods

57,4

Natural gas

9,8

Capital goods

11,2

Petroleum & products

9,2

Consumer goods

5,9

Total include others

114,1

Total include others

74,5

Main export
destination

Main origin of
imports
% of total

% of total

Japan

20,6

Singapore

43,5

United States

12,1

China

18,8

Singapore

11,7

Japan

13,2

China

9,7

South Korea

8,6

Balance of payment,
LOGOand debt,
reserves
$bn
Visible exports fob

118

Changes in reserves

14,3

Visible imports fob

-82,3

Level of reserves end Dec.

56,9

Trade balance

32,8

No. months of import cover

5,3

Invisibles inflows

15,9

Official gold holdings, m oz

2,4

Invisibles outflows

-43,3

Foreign debt

140,8

Net transfers

4,9

-as % of GDP

43

Current account
balances
-as % of GDP

10,3
2,4

-as % of total export

120

Capital balance

3,5

Debt service ratio

11

Overral balance

12,7

Health and
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education
Health spending, %
GDP
Doctors per 100
population
Hospital beds per 100
population
Improved-water
source acces, %
ofpopulation
Education spending,
% of GDP
Enrolment, % primary

Society
2,5

No. of households

0,1

Average number per household 3,8

0,6

Marriages per 100 population

77

Divorces per 1000 population

0,8

3,5

Cost of living, Feb. 2009

62
New York = 100
Olours TVs per 100 households 82,8
Telephone lines per 100 pop.
7,7

121
73

60,6m

secondary
tertiary

Mobile telephone subscribers

per 100 pop.
Computers per 100 pop

35,3
2

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PENGERTIAN DAERAH

Daerah
homogen

Daerah nodal

Daerah
perencanaan
atau
administrasi

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Phase in Local Economic

Development

Phase I data gathering and analysis

Phase II selecting local development strategy
Phase III selecting local development project
Phase IV building acion plans
Phase V specifying project details
Phase VI overall development plan preparation and
implementation

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INFORMASI UNTUK MENGANALISIS

POTENSI DAERAH
Population

Economic
structure

Employment

Socioeconomic
Base Analysis

Community
factors

Physical/locational
conditions

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Types of Data Collection and Analysis

Use existing data record held by local planning

or service agencies
Survey
Use of aggregate quantitative analysis

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Contoh Identifikasi Permasalahan dalam

Pengembangan Potensi Daerah

Kabupaten Belu sebagai salah satu kabupaten di provinsi NTT

memiliki potensi yang cukup besar, seperti pada sektor pertanian, setor
peternakan, dan sektor lain.
Berdasarkan hasl interview, identifikasi permasalahan pokok yang
dihadapi dalam pengembangan potensi daerah yaitu :

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Regional and Local Quantitative

Methods

Shift share
analysis

Klassen
Tipology

Location
Quotients
(LQ)

ICOR

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ICOR
1.

S merupakan proporsi (s atau MPS) dari Y:

S = s.Y

2.

(i)

I perubahan stok modal (K):

I = K

(ii)

3.

K
ICOR = -----Y

4.

S=I

5.

S = s.Y = ICOR. Y = K = I
Y/Y = s/ICOR

atau K = ICOR. Y

(iia)
(iii)

(iv)

Tabel
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PDB Per Kapita dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia
Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Tahun 2000 2010

Tabel
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Perkembangan Investasi Indonesia Tahun 2000 2010
Atas Harga Konstan
Tahun 2000

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Shift Share Analysis

Menganalisis perubahan struktur perekonomian
daerah terhadap negara
Bermanfaat untuk mengidentifikasi keunggulan
daerah dan menganalisis sektor atau industri yang
menjadi basis perekonomian daerah
Menyediakan kinerja perek lokal melalui
1. Economic growth
2. The proportional shift
3. The differential shift

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Shift Share

pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah :

(1) Dij Dij = = Nij + Mij + Cij
Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional :
(2) Nij = = Eij X rn
Pengaruh bauran industri: :
(3) Mij = = Eij ( rin rn )
Pengaruh keunggulan kompetitif :
(4) Cij = = Eij ( ( rij rin ) )
Eij =kesempatan kerja di di sektor i daerah j
Ein = kesempatan kerja di sektor i nasional
rij adalah adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor I di daerah j
rin adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor i nasional
rn adalah laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional

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Contoh Penerapan Analisis Shift

Share

Analisis Shift Share Sektor-sektor Ekonomi Propinsi

LOGO Bengkulu terhadap Sumatera tahun 2002-2007 (Milyar
Rupiah)
Lapangan Usaha
pertanian

G
705,4

S
482,1

P
59,3

D
164

RSE
105

AE
59

Pertambangan &
Penggalian
Industry pengolahan

-311

38,2

-48,3

-301

146,3

-447,2

40,2

51,6

-4,2

-7,1

46

-53,1

Listrik, Gas dan Air

Bersih
Bangunan

11,3

5.4

3,3

2,6

2,5

0,1

95,5

36,9

34,6

24,1

12,8

11,3

Perdagangan, Hotel
dan Restoran

440,5

246,9

128,3

65,2

71,4

-6,2

Pengangkutan &
komunikasi
Keuangan, Persewaan
% Jasa perusahaan

229,2

105,8

167,3

-44

15,9

-59,9

136,6

56,8

82,8

-3,9

15,1

-18,1

Jasa-jasa

351,3

195,8

142,2

13,2

41,6

-28,4

565,2

-86,9

456,6

-542,5

Jumlah

1.698,9 1.219,5

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Keterangan :
G = regional economic growth
S = Sumatera share
P = Proporsional shift
D = Differential shift (RSE + AE)
RSE = Regional shift effect
AE = Allocation effect

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Location Quotient
Identifikasi sektor/komoditi basis yang memiliki
keunggulan komparatif
Koefisien LQ berkisar dari 0 sampai dengan
positif tak terhingga

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Klassen Tipology
Alat analisis yang dapat digunakan untuk
mengidentifikasi sektor, subsektor atau
komoditas unggulan suatu daerah

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Contoh
PDRB Provinsi NAD Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000
Menurut Lapangan Usaha, Tahun 2004-2007
(Juta Rupiah)

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Pangsa dan Pertumbuhan PDRB Provinsi NAD dan Nasional Atas
Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Menurut Lapangan Usaha, Tahun
2004-2007

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