Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Network:
A Planning Framework to Improve Connectivity
and Development
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report has been prepared by William D. Paterson, Senior Policy Adviser, who was
engaged under the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII), funded by AusAID, as part
of the Activity 248.
The support provided by Dir. Haris Butabara, Ir. Slamet Muljono and Dedy Gunawan
(Planning and Programming Division (Bipran), Directorate General of Highways), David
Foster, Philip Sayeg, Davey Kusmayadi and Max Antameng, and the guidance and
reviews by David Shelley, John Lee and David Ray are all gratefully acknowledged. The
report draws on consultants reports prepared by AECOM Ltd. involving Robin Guess,
Chris Burley, Lindsay Shepherd and others. Any errors of fact or interpretation are
solely those of the author.
William D. Paterson
Jakarta, November 2012
IndII 2012
All original intellectual property contained within this document is the property of the Indonesia
Infrastructure Initiative (IndII). It can be used freely without attribution by consultants and IndII partners in
preparing IndII documents, reports designs and plans; it can also be used freely by other agencies or
organisations, provided attribution is given.
Every attempt has been made to ensure that referenced documents within this publication have been
correctly attributed. However, IndII would value being advised of any corrections required, or advice
concerning source documents and/ or updated data.
Cover Photo: Expressway network gives high connectivity for freight and passengers. Jakarta
Cikampek Toll Road, West Java. Photo by Timur Angin
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................. V
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... VII
CHAPTER 1: NEED FOR A NEW APPROACH ON NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK
DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................ 1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
CONTEXT ....................................................................................... 9
STRATEGIC CHALLENGES .................................................................. 11
2.2.1 Poor Trans-Regional and Metropolitan Travel Connectivity.. 11
2.2.2 Investment Planning and Programming Processes Can be
Improved ................................................................................ 14
2.2.3 Narrow Financing Base........................................................... 16
2.2.4 Increasing Adverse Consequences of Road Use .................... 17
2.2.5 Organisational Capacity Improving Slowly ............................. 18
3.2
3.3
4.4
4.5
5.2
DGH-BIPRAN ............................................................................. 44
5.1.1 Establishing Strategic Priorities and Supporting Changes to
Policy and Regulations ........................................................... 44
5.1.2 Planning of Expressway Network and Road Corridors ........... 45
5.1.3 Coordination and Roles of DGH and BPJT .............................. 45
BPJT .......................................................................................... 46
ii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Current Low Connectivity in Economic Corridors ............................................. 13
Table 2: DGH Road Widening Program 2010-2014 and 2015-2024 Forecast................. 27
Table 3: Estimates of Forward Funding Requirements for 2012-2029 from Planning
Analysis ............................................................................................................ 36
Table 4. Current Development in National Arterial Road Corridors of National
Masterplan ...................................................................................................... 52
Table 5. Economic and Financial data: Java North Corridor Expressway ....................... 54
Table 6. Economic and Financial data: Sumatra East Corridor Expressways .................. 54
LIST OF BOXES
Box 1. Current Road Classification .................................................................................. 10
Box 2: Summary of Steps for Preparing National Road Master Plan .............................. 42
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Expressway Development Implementation Plan Sumatera Eastern Road
Corridor .......................................................................................................... xii
Figure 2: Travel Time Outcome Forecasts from Corridor Plan Sumatera Eastern Road
Corridor .......................................................................................................... xii
Figure 3: Funding Requirement Forecasts from Corridor Plan - Sumatera Eastern Road
Corridor ......................................................................................................... xiii
Figure 4: Forecast of Average Annual Funding Requirements on National Roads 20152029 ................................................................................................................ xv
Figure 5: Competitiveness in Infrastructure Regional Comparison ............................... 1
Figure 6: Priority Economic Corridors Defined in MP3EI Connectivity Strategy ............... 3
Figure 7: Extension of Toll Road Network Historical, Current and Planned
Implementation ................................................................................................ 5
Figure 8: Normalised Trip Times Estimated for Six Economic Corridors, 2012 .............. 12
iii
iv
ACRONYMS
ADB
AusAID
BPJT
DGH
GoI
Government of Indonesia
IndII
INPRES
Presidential Instruction
IRMS
KEPPRES
Presidential decree
KKBP
(CMEA)
M&E
MoF
Ministry of Finance
MoT
Ministry of Transportation
MPW
MSOE
MTEF
MP3EI
PERPRES
Presidential Regulation
PBB
PPP
Public-Private Partnership
RENSTRA
RPJM
RPJP
RPN
VGF
vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Indonesias trade competitiveness and future growth prospects depend on strong
action to improve connectivity between economic centres. This report outlines a new
framework for modernising the national road network to achieve this. It requires a
strategic shift in funding priority from asset preservation to capacity investment to
underpin the coming medium-term strategy (RENSTRA), a change in public and private
funding modality, and greater accountability for performance against national targets
for connectivity and mobility.
The Challenges
Indonesia ranks below the medians for ASEAN and developing Asia in terms of road
infrastructure in the Global Competitiveness Indices. The slow development of
expressways and the low capacity of the arterial network in response to rapidly rising
traffic demand are the two main reasons why average trip times between major
centres are nearly double those of key neighbouring countries: 2-4 hours/100 km
compared to 1.0-1.5 hrs/100 km in Malaysia, Thailand and China.
The Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesias Economic
Development (MP3EI1), which focuses on six priority economic corridors2, provides a
framework for prioritising and coordinating multi-sectoral investments in inter-regional
and local connectivity. For roads this implies high-capacity, high-speed inter-regional
connections between main centres and good local connectivity with feeder markets
and production centres. This framework covers two high-productivity corridors (Java
and Sumatera), two rapid-growth corridors (Kalimantan and Sulawesi) and the two
eastern island groups with sparse development and many marine or missing links (BaliNusa Tenggara and Papua-Maluku).
Connectivity has not been a priority in recent network planning and current standards
show a huge backlog of investment in national road capacity. Corridor travel times are
more than a day (26 hours) on Java, more than two days on Sumatera, Sulawesi and
Bali-Nusa Tenggara, and over three days on Kalimantan (Pontianak-Samarinda) and in
Papua-Maluku. In the north Java and east Sumatera corridors, designated as trunk
routes by the Directorate General of Highways (DGH), widening to four-lane highways
has raised average travel speeds to 50 km/hr, but on most other arterial roads the
average speeds are typically 40 km/hr or less. Where roads are widened, traffic flow is
usually impeded by low geometric standards, dense roadside land-use and slowmoving heavy vehicles.
vii
In the past two decades, road planning has followed a two-track approach. For the
main national arterial and collector road network (38,000 km in total length) the
investment priority of the past two strategic plans (RENSTRA 2005-09, 2010-14) has
been asset preservation and road condition targets (86 percent stable by 2009, 94
percent stable by 2014). Budget allocations for network development have been of
secondary priority and have gone into four-laning on parts of selected trunk routes and
minor widening or improvement to intermediate standards on other arterial routes,
especially in the current period 2010-14. Even so, trip speeds and safety improvements
have been marginal due to low geometric improvement and short-term focus of the
planning process.
The second track of road planning has relied on private sector finance to construct toll
roads under private-sector concessions. Of the nearly 3,000 km of expressways
needed, only 700 km are in operation and a further planned 946 km have been delayed
by a combination of concession financing failures, land acquisition delays and a slowdown in private-sector interest. DGH has identified future expressways in several main
corridors, but the process for determining their feasibility and the capacity of the Toll
Road Regulatory Agency (BPJT) in preparing them for market have been hampered by
their low financial viability, problems of land acquisition and an inappropriate risk
allocation in the concessioning framework.
Public spending on national roads could deliver better value for money. Road condition
has been deteriorating rapidly and is the subject of public complaints and demands
from DGH for increased funding for road preservation. The 2010 IndII study on
medium-term expenditure planning, which included an evaluation of the performance
of past and current programs, identified key areas where improvements were needed.
It found that overall life-cycle costs of road and bridge assets were higher than
technically necessary or economically optimal leading to an inefficient use of funds
and strain on the road budget. The reasons included:
In regard to program delivery: (i) short asset life arising from low design standards
and premature deterioration, and issues in project preparation, vehicle
overloading, construction industry incentives and project management; (ii) high
project costs arising from inefficient procurement, including fragmentation of
projects, weak market competition and corruption; and (iii) weak project
management with greater priority given to budget execution than staff capability
and performance.
In regard to network development and capital investment: (i) short-term and costly
capacity improvements including marginal widening of existing roads and not
addressing longer-term functional requirements of alignment, right-of-way and
safety; (ii) unresolved spatial planning and land issues, including land acquisition
and access control; and (iii) lack of high-capacity connections between regions and
growth centres and a conflict of investment priorities between expressways and
other roads in primary corridors.
viii
Current Opportunities
Large increases in the national road budget over recent years have meant that
substantial funding is now available for investment in road development. With a sixfold increase in the seven years since 2005 (the budget averages IDR 30 trillion/yr in
the current RENSTRA) the funding needs for asset preservation are amply covered and
substantial funding could become available for investment in network development.
The preparation in 2013 of the RENSTRA 2015-19 provides an opportunity to shift the
priority from preservation to network development.
The modernisation of government systems, through medium-term expenditure
planning, performance budgeting and administrative reform, allows more room for
major multi-year programs and for tying spending performance to strategic targets
such as connectivity that have impact on economic growth.
Expressway development is starting to revive after a long hiatus, a new legislation
resolving land acquisition delays has been passed and the framework for private sector
investment and Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) is gradually improving. After a
decade of renegotiation and restructuring, many stalled toll road projects are now
under implementation and other planned projects are under preparation. This is
bringing pressure on the capacity of BPJT, the Toll Road Regulatory Agency, to manage
the delivery of an accelerated program and makes it timely to consider changes to its
functional role. The Law no. 2/2012 on public land acquisition3 and implementing
regulations provides for land acquisition for national roads to be undertaken by the
national government instead of local governments, reducing the risk on private
investors and accelerating the processes of consultation and compensation. New
attention to managing the risk profile in PPPs and to mechanisms such as Viability Gap
Funding (VGF) to support projects that have low financial viability is intended to attract
greater private sector investment.
Identifying a Way Forward
Following its 2010 study, IndII supported a study in 2011 on the planning framework
and investments needed to modernise the national road network to achieve national
connectivity goals. The challenges to improving road connectivity include:
The demand for road transport is high and rising rapidly. Over 70 percent of freight
and 82 percent of passenger travel are carried by road transport. The road
transport fleet doubled from 41 to 80 million vehicles in the five years from 2004
to 2009. Within this, motorcycles increased fastest and accounted for 75 percent of
all vehicles in 2009. With current motorisation still comparatively low (at 70
vehicles per thousand population excluding two-wheelers) and with rising income,
the fleet is expected to continue growing at about 10 percent per year.
Law no. 2 of 2012 on Acquisition of Land for Development in the Public Interest and
Presidential Regulation no. 71 of 2012 on the Implementation of Land Acquisition for
Development in the Public Interest
ix
Road density and capacity is low compared with neighbouring countries, and the
expressway network density is considerably lower. The national road network,
comprising about 8 percent of the total network length of 477,000 km, is being
expanded by about 5 percent/year in road space (lane-km) and extended also by
about 5 percent/year in length through the construction of strategic roads in
remote areas and reclassification of other roads. The expressway network density
is less than a tenth of that in Malaysia, China and Philippines. A third of all vehicle
travel is carried by the national road network, but low geometric standards in hilly
terrain and encroachment from roadside development cause travel speeds to
average only 40-50 km/hour on the main arterials. Road safety is poor with over
30,000 fatalities/year, twice that of neighbouring Malaysia.
A strategy for developing the optimal road infrastructure arterial road and
expressway standards and phasing - needed over a 50-year horizon. This will
prioritise investment in both the existing arterial network and the emerging
expressway network over the coming 20-year period.
A focus on the location and staging of the expressway network that would form the
backbone of trans-regional connectivity, with staged implementation.
A Road Renewal Strategy would supplement the Corridor Plans. It would provide
criteria for upgrading the arterial and primary collector roads in the national road
network to modern geometric and structural standards able to support smooth safe
travel and freight with low maintenance. This strategy would improve local
connectivity, extend road life, and make more effective use of funds over the long
term than the current incremental approach to betterment and widening. With staging
by successive five-year periods over 20 years, it would support the preparation of
RENSTRA plans and funding estimates.
Together the medium-term Corridor Plans and Road Renewal Strategy would
complement the asset preservation programs but would take precedence on individual
links in order to ensure that funds for asset preservation were not wasted in conflict
with scheduled development investments.
xi
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
>2029
North-South segments
Bakauheni-Palembang
Pekanbaru-Medan
Palembang-Pekanbaru
Medan-Aceh
East-West connectors
Pekanbaru-Padang
Palembang-Bengkulu
Tebing Tinggi-Sibolga
Legend
Project preparation
Land acquisition
Construction
2. A strip-map of road asset standards in the corridor, depicting the width and length
of each section of the road assets (arterial and expressway), colour-coded for the
5-year period in which it would be opened. An example is shown in the main report
in Figure 6. In this case, the plan shows the arterial road being improved to a
minimum 7 m width standard over the full length of 2,536 km by 2027, with
segments near Pekanbaru and
Medan widened to four-lanes.
Figure 2: Travel Time Outcome Forecasts from
The parallel expressway with a
Corridor Plan Sumatera Eastern Road Corridor
four-lane
dual
carriageway
standard would be opened in
70
66
stages between 2020 and 2030,
Total travel time Lampung to B Aceh, hr
54
60
with a total length of 2,014 km
18
50
45
a distance reduction of 20.6
16
33
40
percent.
17
15
14
25
30
B Aceh
3. A travel time chart showing the
13
Medan
10
6
20
20
estimated travel times between
Pekanbaru
16
7
7
Palembang
14
key nodes along the corridor at
10
8
8
Lampung
11
9
5
5
5
the end of each 5-year period. In
0
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
the
above
example,
the
RENSTRA End-year
reduction in travel times varies
by segment and period and
results in a reduction in travel time from Palembang to Medan from 37 hours to 15
xii
hours by 2024, and for the overall trip from Bandar Lampung to Bandar Aceh from
66 hours to 25 hours by 2030, as shown in Figure 2.
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2012-14
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
Expressway
development, E
2.613
54.866
61.451
73.866
Arterial road
development, E
7.634
2.287
0.865
0.415
Arterial road
preservation, E
2.238
3.872
3.872
3.872
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2012-14
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
Public sector
12.5
54.0
64.6
78.2
Private sector
0.0
7.0
1.5
0.0
xiii
Road renewal would provide the opportunity for adopting the appropriate road
alignment for the long-term. The alignment would be designed for a 25-50 year period,
including provision for appropriate right-of-way. The appropriate alignment may be in
the existing location but in some cases may smooth the curvature to improve flow and
safety, or be relocated to take account of spatial plans, geotechnical or environmental
risks, or to reduce trip distance. While land acquisition requirements may be
substantial, a one-off upfront action may be a suitable trade-off that can avoid the
need for future repeated social disruption and higher costs.
In budgetary and financial terms, road renewal may cost more than the current
incremental widening strategy in terms of initial cost, but would be less than the
current spending when annualised over 5-20 years. The current costs of widening and
road renewal (to full 7 m width on 12 m foundation) are IDR 2-3 billion/km and IDR 5
billion/km respectively. With future preservation needs reducing to IDR 100-150
million/km/year, the simple annualised costs including initial development and
subsequent preservation amount to IDR 300-350 million/km/year over 20 years. This is
about half the current spending of IDR 700 million/km/year (after excluding nonpavement expenditures). Annual spending of IDR 5-10 trillion/year would fund renewal
of 1,000-2,000 km of national road each year and would modernise the arterial road
network of 30,000 km in 15-25 years.
Forecasting Funding Requirements and Outcomes
The power of the proposed planning framework becomes still more evident through
the long-term forecasting of forward funding requirements and outcomes for all
national roads. Combining the outputs of the corridor plans and the road renewal
plans, the framework is able to generate forecasts of funding requirements for the
entire national road network, linked to spending timeframe and to performance in
terms of travel time and accessibility.
Using the IndII study example for demonstration purposes, and applying the renewal
strategy over the 15-year period 2015-2029, the following scenario resulted: (i)
expressway construction of 3,700 km (including north Java, east Sumatera and laterals,
and 300 km in other corridors); (ii) road renewal applied to 30,300 km of arterial roads
beginning with trunk road corridors of 8,700 km; and (iii) reducing the cost of road
preservation from IDR 300 million/km/year to IDR 150 million/km/year after road
renewal.
The forecast national road funding requirements for this scenario are shown in Figure 4
(see also Table 3 in the report): annual public funding requirements would need to rise
by 64 percent overall (from the present IDR 32 trillion/year to about IDR 48
trillion/year in the next 2015-19 RENSTRA and to about IDR 56 trillion/year in 2020-24)
before falling again after 2025. These illustrative results probably represent an upper
limit and of course could be spread to provide more uniform levels of funding.
xiv
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Road preservation
Road management
2005-09
2010-14
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
Development to modernise the arterial road network would require about IDR 19
trillion/year to be completed within the 15 year period, with two-thirds spent on
road renewal and one third on bridges and other needs.
The funding requirement for asset preservation begins at the existing level but
would decline as the arterial road network becomes modernised with more
durable performance and lower preservation costs.
Lastly, forecast average travel times in the main corridors (hr/100 km) over the 15-year
period could be generated and presented either as a national average or disaggregated
by region or corridor (e.g., see figure 11 in the main report).
Applying the Framework and Building Planning Capacity
In this report, guidance is provided on the following nine steps involved in preparing a
national road master plan using the framework: identifying the priority economic
corridors; defining the road corridors and their priorities; specifying the levels of
service; adopting appropriate design standards; defining the national expressway and
highway network and supporting access roads; identifying connections between
economic corridors; preparing the corridor development plans; developing a 20-year
budget and financing plan for each road corridor; and preparing the initial priority
projects for implementation.
xv
Road network development needs to become the strategic priority for DGH,
requiring a proactive and long-term approach, with road preservation taking a
secondary role.
Revisions will need to be made to some policies, regulations and laws to reflect and
support the shift in strategic priority and the modernisation of the national road
network.
A formal plan for road corridors, incorporating trunk routes and arterial routes,
should be defined in relation to the national spatial plan.
xvi
Outcome indicators - such as road transport demand, travel times and distances for
the corridor need formal definition and inclusion in the strategic targets of
spending plans.
A long-term development and expenditure plan for the national road network,
together with forecasts of key outcome indicators, should be prepared for a range
of funding scenarios.
The issues raised by this report are far-reaching and have significant implications for
the setting of spending strategies and performance targets for development and
expansion of the national road network in the future.
Road renewal gives improved travel speed and safety and extended
asset life. Coastal Road, Aceh; Photo by Timur Angin
xvii
Figure 5: Competitiveness in
Infrastructure Regional Comparison
(a) Road Infrastructure
2011)
indicator
(GCI
Developing Asia
ASEAN
Indonesia
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
0
2
4
6
GCI - Road Infrastructure Indicator
China
Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
INDONESIA
Vietnam
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
China
Thailand
Malaysia
0.00
1.00
2.00
Trip time (hr/100 km)
3.00
decline. Indonesia is also falling behind comparable countries in the region such as
Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam that have either maintained or improved
their performance.
Indonesias competitiveness is also being impacted by the availability and quality of
its infrastructure. In ratings of global competitiveness, Indonesias ratings continue to
reflect a lack in the availability and quality of infrastructure, despite recent
improvements due to non-infrastructure factors4, refer to Figure 5. In the region, the
nation, with a score of 3.5 out of 10, ranks below the median of 4.3 for ASEAN
countries and considerably lower than neighbours such as Thailand and Malaysia, as
seen in Figure 5(a). Rapid growth in demand, the low penetration of expressways (1040 percent of the levels in the region (refer to Figure 5(b)), and rising congestion on the
nations highways contribute to poor logistics performance. Indonesia also has to deal
with the additional burden of significant urban congestion, not only in the Jakarta
conurbation but also in the other six metropolitan centres, such as Surabaya and
Medan, where the key airports, seaports and industrial areas are located. As a result,
average travel times in the main corridors, a key factor in transport costs and logistical
competitiveness, appear to be significantly longer than in neighbouring countries, as
seen in Figure 5(c).
In this context, the national master plan for development in key economic corridors is
a crucially important initiative. The MP3EI5, issued by the Coordinating Ministry for
Economic Affairs (CMEA) in May 2011, focuses on strengthening connectivity to
integrate the growth centres and ports in the nations key economic corridors, as
shown in Figure 6. Improved connectivity is fundamental to catalysing development
and to integrate the more remote regions outside Java and Sumatera into the national
economy.
The six identified economic corridors6 are:
In 2010 Indonesia was ranked at 44th position (out of 133 countries) by the Global
Competitiveness Index (GCI). This was an improvement from 54th position in 2009. But in
terms of infrastructure performance Indonesia was ranked at 82nd position. The index
comprises 12 pillars of which infrastructure is only one.
5
Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (MP3EI).
6
Each economic corridor includes smaller sub-corridors where investment in the supporting
roads should also be identified and prioritised. In this report the sub-corridors are considered
to be part of the road corridor.
Public expenditure in the road sector could have stronger linkage to national economic
development goals, and trans-regional connectivity should become a strategic priority
for the DGH. A recent review and study supporting the implementation of a MediumTerm Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) in the
road sector was undertaken in collaboration between DGH and IndII7. Among a
broader set of recommendations, the review found that the existing approach to
planning and implementing capacity expansion on the national road network was not
delivering a modern high performance network that could meet current and future
needs because it lacked a focus on connectivity and logistical performance. It also
found that funding allocated to road development could be used more efficiently and
effectively with more attention to long-run life-cycle costing. Given the substantial
increase in Government funding, which has increased six-fold in the current RENSTRA
compared with 20058, higher priority should be given to the development of modern
safe highways in the main economic corridors and to support for a trans-regional
network of expressways (tolled or untolled) to provide high speed and safe travel with
limited access.
1.2
Focusing on a new framework for network planning is timely especially in the context
of a number of important parallel initiatives, including:
Land acquisition problems are being overcome. A revolving fund in place since
2007 and the new Law no. 2/201210 on the acquisition of land in the public interest
are addressing the prevailing issues. The law provides for land acquisition for
national roads to be the responsibility of the national rather than local
government, for disclosure and consultation to be completed within 90 days and
for the full process of consultations, business and legal procedures to be
completed within a total of 436 days at the latest. While this will pose challenges, it
is moving in the right direction. Past PPP projects have experienced major
difficulties where the private party was given responsibility for land acquisition but
not control of the process, which resulted in implementation delays or stoppages.
Guidelines on new models for facilitating private sector participation in toll roads,
including PPPs and the provision of public financing, are available but urgently
need to be expanded and demonstrated. The new guidelines recognise the
importance of the risk profile and financial viability of the facility, and provide a
framework for public financial support of those projects which are not viable for
private financing alone. However, suitable mechanisms for the provision of the
IndII support to DGH has assisted the application of MTEF-PBB in the road sector, giving rise to
this and related studies on improving the performance of public expenditures in the road
sector.
10
Law no. 2 of 2012 on Acquisition of Land for Development in the Public Interest and
Presidential Regulation no. 71 of 2012 on the Implementation of Land Acquisition for
Development in the Public Interest
Total length, km
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1980
1990
Operational
2000
2010
Implementing
2020
2030
Planned
Source: Data from BPJT as of October 2011, chart by IndII assuming 150-200 km/year
delivery of Planned program.
The national road budget has risen steeply, nearly six-fold in the past six years,
leading to an expanded program. The spending rose from IDR 5.3 trillion in 2005 to
IDR 29.8 trillion (AUD 3.2 billion) in 2011, and the economy is growing. Public
funding for development is thus no longer the constraint it used to be, and
provided there is strategic direction to the allocation for investment in network
development, the connectivity goals can be achievable. However, in allocating
almost twice the budget from IDR 16 trillion/year in 2009 to the average of IDR 30
trillion/year for the period 2010-2014, DGH lacked a long-term plan with
connectivity targets and a pipeline of development projects. The allocation of the
majority of the budget (i.e., 63 percent or IDR 19 trillion/year) to road
development was instead based on policies that had only limited strategic focus
and were largely short-term in their impact. The strategic elements included, for
example, the widening of existing roads in trunk road corridors, and improving
strategic roads (non-national roads being reclassified) in remote and underdeveloped areas. However much of the funding was widely dispersed for minor
and incremental widening of other national roads to normative width standards
without optimising long-term requirements. The policies delivered short-term and
marginal improvements rather than long-term substantial improvements to
capacity and connectivity.
Preparation of the next RENSTRA during 2013-14 provides the opportunity for
adjusting the strategic focus of spending on national roads and its linkage to
1.3
What type and shape of the national road network is required to support economic
goals and growth? A backbone network of modern highways is considered essential
to facilitate reliable, safe and fast regional connectivity. This backbone network would
comprise limited access expressways where traffic demand is high, and safe high-speed
highways in other trunk road corridors where expressways will become justified only in
the longer term. To make logistics costs competitive, the network would need to
provide safe reliable journey times in the order of 1.0-1.5 hours/100 km (equivalent to
average speeds over 60 km/hour up to 100 km/hour), compared with the current
levels of 2.5-4.0 hours/100 km. Moreover, the backbone network needs to be
supported by a well structured network of arterial and collector roads with modern
road standards that support efficient distribution of traffic and that connect the
expressway network to manufacturing centres and local markets and land use
activities.
The spatial aspect of major economic infrastructure is a crucial element of planning
that requires a long-term horizon. The location of infrastructure assets such as
highways and expressways is essentially permanent and the structures themselves
have a long economic life of 25 to 50 years, with appropriate asset management. This
spatial element has a significant
influence on the environmental and
social
impacts
of
physical
infrastructure, as well as on the
development of economic activity
and land use. Thus a long-range
vision of 50 years or more is
appropriate when planning the
layout of the network and the
corridor space that is, if the
support to spatial development is
to be constructive and if the
Ambarawa bypass avoids conflict with urban
disruption to land-use activities is
settlements. Courtesy of DGH.
to be minimised. Any decisions on
medium-term expenditures (e.g.,
five years) therefore need to be
optimised and prioritised firmly in the context of long-term plans extending over at
least 25 years and within a vision that extends to 50 years and beyond. This implies
1.4
Following the review of expenditure budgeting and performance for national roads in
DGH (IndII 2010), which highlighted this connectivity and planning issue, IndII
supported a more detailed study in 2010-2011 to identify practical steps for improving
the planning of road network development. The study is documented in a series of
reports (IndII 2011).
The key objective of the study was to demonstrate how national connectivity and
mobility goals, supporting national economic imperatives and improved regional
accessibility, could be incorporated in the long-term and medium-term planning
processes of DGH.
11
In practical terms, this horizon needs to be adjusted to conform to the Governments present
long-term plan (RPJP) which is a 20-year plan running from 2005 to 2024, and the subsequent
long-term period 2025-2044.
Targeted support on road network development to DGH and Badan Pengatur Jalan
Tol (BPJT, the Toll Road Regulatory Agency) to plan and implement this framework
for expressways and arterial roads, and resulting in improved planning and
programming in the short term.
1.5
THIS REPORT
This report looks first in more detail at the challenges facing improvements to national
connectivity and at the issues relating to improving the planning of road development,
including the funding, programming and design of road network capacity
improvements.
The report then presents (in Chapter 4:) the proposed new framework for planning the
development of the national arterial road network, including the expressway network,
to meet the connectivity goals and forecast economic growth in traffic demand. This
leads into a proposed program of support for DGH and BPJT to build capacity for
meeting this accelerated demand for network development. In particular, it includes
the basis for preparing a long-term financing strategy to support the rapid
development of the network, drawing on both expanded public funds and private
sector investment. It demonstrates the forecasting of funding requirements, including
private sector resources, and how these link to the outcomes and performance
expected for the network.
CONTEXT
12
network is being extended at a rate of about 1,600 km/year, through the addition of
strategic roads and reclassification of sub-national roads.
Travel on the national road network has been constrained by terrain and land use.
About one third of total road vehicle travel is made on the national road network,
which DGH estimates to be growing by about 6 percent per year with a 2010 level of
about 80 billion vehicles-km per year. Road travel speeds however remain slow due to
generally low-speed road geometry standards that are characteristic of the generally
hilly terrain, and to generally high levels of side friction arising from extensive ribbon
development and weak controls on land use (IndII, 2010). Road surface standards are
fairly high on national arterial roads, with 90 percent paved and about 86 percent
reported to be in good or fair condition. However the rate of deterioration is high,
especially in the heavily trafficked corridors.
Box 1. Current Road Classification
Article 7 of Law no. 38/2004 defines three basic road categories: (i) public roads; (ii) special
roads (individual/private/dedicated roads); and (iii) toll roads. Public roads are divided into
Primary and Secondary roads. Primary roads are further classified by function into: arterials and
collectors (with sub-categories K1, K2, K3 which are primarily administrative), and primary local
(District roads). Secondary roads are local and neighbourhood roads in urban areas.
Primary roads are defined as linking big cities, medium cities and towns. A primary arterial road
connects PKNs (National Activity Centre) to each other, connects between PKN and PKW
(Regional Activity Centres), and links to airports and Airport Distribution Centres. The primary
collector road network (K1), also part of the national road network, connects PKW and PKL
(Local Activity Centres).
The arterial and collector (K1) roads are the responsibilities of national government agencies.
The K2 and K3 classified roads are generally the responsibility of provincial governments, except
when they are identified in the national strategic plan (5 year RENSTRA) as strategic roads in
which case they are eligible for national government funding. Thus some K2 and K3 classified
roads might be the responsibility of both the national and provincial governments.
Some provinces have defined some K2 and K3 collectors as strategic roads, even though the
roads are not included in the RENSTRA, and by ministerial decree those receive national funding
only after national needs have been fully met.
Source: IndII (2011), Deliverable 2: Current State of Network Planning.
Road safety risks are high, especially for motorcycles. Along with increasing
motorisation, Indonesia is experiencing a serious road safety problem with over 30,000
fatalities occurring annually, and an estimated level of injury above 1,000,000 annually
(Eric Howard and Associates, 2008)13. Fatality rates per 10,000 vehicles in 2004 were
eight times higher in Indonesia than in Australia, and more than twice the level in
Malaysia, an ASEAN good practice road safety neighbour. A high 60-70 percent of the
fatalities involve motorcycles, followed by pedestrians. Continued sharp growth in
13
10
Updated by official statistics and analysis of Indonesian National Police Traffic Corps crash
data, which show 31,234 fatalities in 2010.
motorcycle ownership rates is likely to increase fatality and injury rates further (Eric
Howard and Associates, 2008).
Access to roads and transport services in remote areas warrants investment on social
grounds. It is estimated that 17 million people living in remote communities remain
without direct access to the road network or all-weather roads (World Bank 2011).
Currently, over 40 percent of the nations population lives outside of Java and steady
investment to improve inter-island shipping services and sea ports, air services and
airports, and the road systems in remote regions is needed. Lower traffic demand in
remote areas and outer islands will require investments to be made more on social
than economic grounds.
2.2
STRATEGIC CHALLENGES
Several key strategic challenges have been identified based on the analysis of IndII
(2010) and IndII (2011). These are discussed below.
14
11
Surging economic activity and mixed traffic are straining infrastructure capacity and
have adverse impacts in urban areas. NH14 Semarang. Photos by Phillip Jordan
Current estimates of connectivity in the main economic corridors indicate trip times
ranging from 2.5 to 3.2 hours/100 km for road travel and rising to 5.0 hours/100 km or
more in corridors involving nautical links in the eastern regions, as shown in Figure 8.
These can be compared with the service levels of a modern highway network in the
order of 1 to 1.5 hours/100 km for road travel.
Field data on actual travel times are not readily available. In the absence of
standardised travel time surveys, this evidence on corridor performance has been
developed from bus travel data and other estimates of end-to-end travel times in the
nations economic corridors, as
shown in Table 1. Where
Figure 8: Normalised Trip Times Estimated for
appropriate, the corridor trip data
Six Economic Corridors, 2012
incorporates travel on existing
expressway segments. The data
Trip time hr/100 km*
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
show that in the primary trunk road
Trans-Sumatra
corridors where there has been
Trans-Java
substantial widening, such as north
Target service levels
1 - 2 hr/100 km
Kalimantan
Java and east Sumatera, average
Sulawesi
travel speeds of up to 50 km/hour
are being achieved. In other arterial
Bali-NTT
road corridors, the average travel
Papua-Maluku
speeds are in the order of 40
Road Trip Time
Nautical Add-on
km/hour. Elsewhere where recent
field data are not available, an
Source: Study estimates based on Table 1 data
average travel speed of 40 km/hour
and point-point corridor distances.
has been assumed15.
15
12
Systematic travel surveys are planned in 2013 to determine actual trip times in the economic
corridors and to establish a baseline for planning and monitoring in the future.
Key Centres
Economic Activities
Sumatera
Java
Jakarta, Bandung,
Semarang, Yogyakarta,
Surabaya
Kalimantan
Pontianak, Palangkaraya,
Banjarmasin, Samarinda
Pontianak-PalangkarayaBanjarmasin-Samarinda 83
hour (3,316 km)
Sulawesi
Makassar, Kendari,
Mamuju, Palu, Gorontalo,
Manado
Agriculture, Minerals,
Oil and Gas, Fishing
Bali Nusa
Tenggara
Denpasar, Lombok,
Kupang, Mataram
Tourism, Fishing,
Animal Husbandry
Papua -
Kepulauan
Maluku
Agriculture, Minerals,
Oil and Gas, Fishing
Sorong-Manokwari 15 hour
(607 km); ManokwariJayapura-Merauke not
connected; Sofifi-AmbonSorong ferry travel.
Sources: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs (2011) for left hand three columns. Corridor
road distances from DGH 2011. Travel times for Java north and Sumatera east corridors are
derived from daily bus services and equate to about 50 km/hour average speed, other corridor
times are estimated based on 40 km/hour average speed; ferry travel between islands is
excluded (IndII October 2011).
This means that end-to-end travel times by road in most corridors are around two to
three days whereas in comparable nations in South East Asia, such as Thailand and
Malaysia where average highway speeds are around 80 to 90 km/hour, key corridors
can be traversed by car in less than one day. In eastern Indonesia, as this concept is
developed further, corridor travel times will need to include ferry travel between
islands (i.e., based on a nautical highway corridor), and in Papua some economic
centres are not yet connected by national road.
The expressway function is defined by a toll roads classification and not focused on
the economics and functions of connectivity and the efficient movement of goods and
people. Although expressways, with limited access and high capacity, were identified
13
as a critical requirement to improve connectivity by IndII (2010), they are not defined
as a separate road category under Article 7 of Law no. 38/2004 or even as a class of
Public Road. Instead the road law defines toll roads as one of the three categories of
road based on their revenue-raising character. Toll roads have the same functional
characteristics as expressways and are classified as national roads; however the focus
of their definition and control is on the revenue aspect: they are generally privately
financed, and their administration falls under a separate agency, BPJT. This distinction
has proved to be an impediment to the formulation of coherent planning and
management of a high-standard, limited access expressway network that could serve
as the backbone of regional connectivity. While it is likely that most of an expressway
network would be tolled, the value of a functional classification is paramount for
spatial and transport planning, and is essential for identifying the substantial
differences in performance and impact on connectivity that result from various
functional standards. The financing arrangements should be handled separately and
should not dictate the functional classification.
This focus on the toll road modality has also led to a fragmented development of the
expressway function in the network, which has been based on the financial viability of
individual segments for private sector financing. While a long-range toll road plan
existed for the key corridors of Java and Sumatera, implementation difficulties
relating to land acquisition, risk allocation and the viability of concessionaires
resulted in major delays over the past decade which are only now being overcome.
These delays created congested conditions on critical segments of the national
network and led to alternative interventions by DGH to widen existing arterial roads on
their existing alignment in the trunk road corridors. These incremental improvements
were implemented with high costs of land acquisition and construction, but relatively
low returns in the benefits of road capacity and improved travel speeds, for example at
the margin from 40 to only 50 km/hour instead of much higher average travel speeds.
In conclusion, there has been an inadequate focus in the recent road development
programs on inter-regional connectivity, on the urgent need for the creation of a
backbone network of expressways, and on the need for improving both traffic capacity
and travel times on the arterial road corridors.
14
The linkages between Long-term Development Goals and Expenditure Planning have
not been fully effective, lacking a focus on connectivity and the functional
performance of the road network. Although the long-term plans (RPJP) and spatial
plans have identified key centres of economic growth over the past decade or more,
these do not appear to have been translated into specific road development and
capital investment plans in the medium-term plans (RENSTRA) or the annual
expenditure plans. Although some planning of arterial road development was made in
DGH, the studies tended to be fragmented and did not result in the publication of
comprehensive plans for the development of links in the ASEAN highway network or
for a national expressway network. As a result, the development of both these key
drivers of connectivity has suffered from a lack of priority and visibility in recent five
year plans. For example, the five year RENSTRA plans have not cited performance
objectives in terms of improved connectivity and travel times for the ASEAN highway
corridors, or indeed for other trunk road corridors.
The existing incremental and normative approach to planning capacity expansion
does not fully address long-term traffic demand and functional performance, and
leads to an inefficient use of capital investment funds. The current paradigm supports
incremental widening (usually in narrow strips less than 0.6 m wide on each side)
where roads are of substandard width or congested. However, with weak strength and
without effective means for improving alignment or of limiting access, the benefits are
rapidly overtaken by attracted roadside activity, growth in traffic and surface damage.
Furthermore, the cost of incremental widening is high. At IDR 2 to 3 billion (AUD
250,000 to AUD 350,000) per kilometre, the cost is only 30 percent less than the cost
of full reconstruction which confers substantially higher benefits of longer life and
lower annualised costs.
The development focus in the past and current DGH RENSTRAs has been on this
incremental approach - improving roads to defined width standards (road width and
number of lanes), based on administrative classification and corridor status. However,
by aiming for broad coverage within a short period, the funds have been widely
dispersed and used inefficiently, delivering a marginal improvement that requires
repeated investment within a short timeframe. A long-term approach - which is more
effective in terms of development and connectivity and more efficient in terms of use
of investment funds would take account of the long-term traffic demand, the speed
required for connectivity and the safety environment, and also a wider range of
options including improvement of the road alignment, sight lines and shoulders - as
part of a comprehensive design to improve capacity and safety.
The expanding availability of public funding provides an opportunity for improving
connectivity and modernising the national road network, provided that capital
investment is given high priority in medium-term expenditure plans and that
planning processes are improved. When the budget envelope was tripled from the
previous RENSTRA to the current one, the investment in road development received a
smaller increase in allocation than the spending on road preservation. Lacking a
strategy of investing in road renewal which would reduce annualised expenditure on
road preservation at the same time as increasing travel benefits the additional
15
funding was instead allocated to higher (and inefficient) spending on maintenance and
rehabilitation with only marginal benefits in vehicle travel costs.
The strategic planning processes in DGH now need to be modified to improve the
prioritisation of investments between road development and road preservation. The
current planning tool, the Indonesian Road Management System (IRMS) for example,
needs upgrading in data and capability for assessing the benefits of improvements to
the network and traffic flow and of extended asset life. Multi-year budgeting under
MTEF gives the opportunity of supporting a substantial investment program of
progressive upgrading and renewal of the road system. However this needs to be
integrated with related savings in road preservation so as to produce a funding
strategy which is optimal in the long-term instead of short-term.
Such challenges call for a change in the way of doing business in the planning of road
development and prioritisation of road expenditures. A strategic framework would
provide a long-term focus for investment in road infrastructure and balance the
demands of economic and social development with the constraints of land use and
social impacts. The planning process would generate design standards that are longer
lasting and achieve lower annualised investment costs in the long-term, requiring
better data and better analytical tools. These would enable a stronger and more
transparent linkage between strategic development goals, expenditure plans and
outcomes and thereby would gain stronger political and community support.
16
17
16
Full geometric and roadway imaging data, as well as basic road condition and traffic data,
were included in IRMS from about 2001 when automated road surveys were conducted
under a country-wide contract intended to be updated at 5-yearly intervals. However, these
data were not transferred when the location referencing system was changed in 2010.
17
For example, to support progress with implementation of the stalled toll road concessions.
18
The planning policies and processes needed to support production of the national
road network development plan.
3.1
19
20
How can the framework be used to establish the linkage between economic
development goals, connectivity targets and the investment plan? If the national
development goals are used to drive the program by setting targets for achieving
connectivity and a continuous network, this will have a significant effect on the
economic and financial feasibility of projects and the demand for investment
capital.
The planning framework should help identify the segments of the network and
the amount of investment that is viable and attractive for the private sector,
within the overall resource envelopes associated with different development
options and for a range of public-private financing models.
In less developed areas, the framework should guide the strategic decision on
when development in a road corridor should improve on an existing alignment or
when it is appropriate to supplement or replace that with the development of a
facility in a new location and alignment that is optimal for the long-term. Where
traffic demand is relatively low the development of arterial roads to modern
highway standards is likely to satisfy demand and connectivity for at least the
medium-term. In some cases, a staging strategy that locates the modern highway
on a separate alignment designated for a future expressway in a long-term plan
may be appropriate.
Policy guidance is also needed on several additional related issues. For example,
should land be acquired for the ultimate cross section? Should all expressways be
tolled? New and appropriate technical standards may be needed - such as design
axle loading - if heavy truck overloading is expected to be a continuing problem.
Since official policy is for the provision of a non-tolled alternative to toll roads,
standards may also include guidance on what constitutes an acceptable free
alternative route by taking into account the local land use arrangement, travel
patterns and travel times.
The framework should also address the next level of road (for example collector
whether national or local) feeding the backbone network, where their performance
(or shortcomings) would have an impact on the efficient performance of either the
backbone (trunk or expressway) network or the arterial network.
21
3.2
In order to support the planning framework, the current planning policy and processes
would need to be strengthened to handle the following:
22
Model for estimating private sector financing and VGF options for potential project
packages.
3.3
Land acquisition Even though the improved legal provisions on land acquisition
are now in effect, the new provisions alone may not solve all problems concerning
land acquisition. Even if acquiring the land in advance for a future ultimate
roadway is permitted, use of the land in the interim could create difficulties in the
23
future. Leasing the land for temporary use may not be the solution if, through long
term use, the residents acquire a legal or perceived right for continued occupation:
physical barriers to prevent access may need to be maintained and trespass
prohibited. Further, adequate and continuous disclosure to the public would
always be needed to ensure local communities were well aware that the land in
question is designated for future road development.
24
A Road Renewal Strategy would supplement the Corridor Plans by providing planning
criteria for capital improvements to modernise the roadway and road structure of all
other arterial and collector roads in the national road network. This strategy would
improve local connectivity among and within growth poles, extend road life, and make
more effective use of funds over the long-term than the current incremental approach
25
to road betterment and widening. With staging by successive five-year periods over
the 20-year long-term, it would support the preparation of RENSTRA plans and
estimates of the capital funds required for national road development.
4.1
The current DGH National Master Plan for 2010-2014, prepared in 2009 and updated
to 2011, includes support for the MP3EI connectivity agenda and the six economic
corridors identified by MP3EI. By its nature, the road development plan contributes to
intra-island connectivity, termed local connectivity which includes connections
among growth poles and within growth poles. For the NTT-Maluku-Papua region,
the inter-island or marine highway connections will be an important element of
connectivity-based development plans.
2,000
Sumatra
Java
Kalimantan
Maluku-Papua
8,000
10,000
3,690
1,430
2,780
Sulawesi
Bali-NTT
Road Length, km
4,000
6,000
3,160
1,122
Total Length
Improved length
1,905
The DGH plan identifies 24 arterial road corridors across six regions comprising about
30,400 km, or 80 percent, of the 38,000 km national road network, as shown in Annex
A18. The plan for the current RENSTRA 2010-2014 includes 14,100 km of road widening,
which constitutes 46 percent of the arterial road corridor length over the current fiveyear period, as shown in Figure 9 and Table 2. The plan is based on the target of
18
26
Recent plans in 2012-13 include connector corridors and other arterials, with a total length
approaching 50,000 km.
widening all narrow sections of road until the full length of each corridor meets the
designated minimum road width of 4.5, 6.0 or 7.0 m by 2014 (see Annex A, Table 4).
This represents a huge program of incremental widening, with treatments costing an
average IDR 1.65 billion/km across most of the country (the exception being Java which
has an average cost of IDR 10.7 billion/km owing to a large investment in four-lane
divided roadways) (see Table 2).
Table 2: DGH Road Widening Program 2010-2014 and 2015-2024 Forecast
Arterial
Road
length
Widened
length
Widened
Length
Average
Treatment
Cost 2011
km
km
Arterial
(in
percent)
IDR b/km
2010-14
2015-24
2011-24
Sumatra
7.798
3.690
47
1,60
5.904
17.037
22.941
Java
4.916
1.430
29
10,68
15.278
5.764
31.042
Kalimantan
5.462
2.780
51
1,40
3.882
13.890
17.772
Sulawesi
6.012
3.160
53
1,35
4.255
6.008
10.263
Bali-NTT
2.013
1.122
56
1,46
1.643
11.010
12.653
Maluku-Papua
4.166
1.905
46
2,70
5.153
10.091
15.244
Total
30.367
14.087
46
2,56
36.115
73.800
109.915
Total ex-Java
25.451
12.657
50
1,65
20.837
58.036
78.873
Region
Source:
Original data from Tentang Rencana Umum Jaringan Jalan Nasional,
567/KPTS/M/2010, updated by Bipran in 2011. Presentation and derived data in columns 4 and
5 are by the author.
While this plan delivers marginal improvements to traffic flow and connectivity on the
arterial road network over a wide area, it does not necessarily deliver the best benefits
of shortened and improved alignment or renewal of the road structure19, and it is not
able to quantify the improvements to travel times. Moreover, the treatment cost is
more than a third of the cost of road renewal, or full reconstruction, and is likely to
need repeating within five to 10 years, which raises the question of the comparative
economic returns between this incremental policy and a modernisation policy. Finally,
19
In practice some of the funds in this program are used for localised modernisation with minor
realignments and reconstruction, however the planning for this is not a systematic policy.
27
the forward estimates for the following 10 years (2015-2024) amounting to only IDR
7.4 trillion/year, appear to be insufficient for making the substantial improvement to
connectivity implied by the MP3EI development plan.
This presentation of the road infrastructure development plan also does not include
development of the expressway network, which is handled separately because the
expressway development is financed primarily through private investment. Integrating
the development plans for both the arterial road network and the expressway network
is needed in order to demonstrate the outcome of the development plans in terms of
improved connectivity. It is also needed for demonstrating the tradeoffs between
alternative investments in incremental widening, full road improvement and renewal,
and expressways.
The new framework proposed for planning the development of the national road
network addresses these issues: first through application of a corridor planning
approach, and second through developing a strategy on road asset renewal.
4.2
Examples of the corridor planning approach were developed for the Sumatera eastern
road corridor 20 and the North Java corridor during IndII Phase I to demonstrate the
concept of Road Corridor Development Plans.
The Sumatera eastern corridor example was derived with data from the 2010 MARS
study21 which recommended the construction of the full length of tolled expressways
(2018 km Bakauheni to Banda Aceh, plus 717 km of east-west connector routes) on
policy grounds. That study concluded that the development of a tolled expressway was
the most efficient option to enable effective connectivity and facilitate economic
growth in Sumatera. The proposed expressway and connecting routes would:
Link major sea and air ports with a high speed road link.
Significantly reduce long-distance travel times for both passenger and freight
movements.
The IndII corridor plan analysed options for capacity expansion of the existing national
arterial road from Lampung to Banda Aceh designated by DGH as a trunk route (lintas
utama), and the expressways in the corridor, based on the DGH program and MARS
data for the period 2012-2029.
20
This is smaller than the Sumatera economic corridor which includes more east-west
connector road corridors.
21
The Establishment of a Master Plan for the Arterial Road Network in Sumatra Island (MARS),
Korea International Cooperation Agency, 2010.
28
The corridor analysis generated the capacity expansion implementation plan22 shown
in Figure 10, showing the project preparation, land acquisition and construction
periods proposed for each expressway segment over the period 2012-2029, based on
the economic and financial prioritisation (see Annex B for details). A similar
implementation plan was prepared for expansion of the arterial roads in the corridor
occurring in parallel to construction of the expressway. These implementation plans
and the capacity provided in the two parallel facilities were optimised to provide the
best improvement to capacity and connectivity during the 18-year period.
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
>2029
North-South segments
Bakauheni-Palembang
Pekanbaru-Medan
Palembang-Pekanbaru
Medan-Aceh
East-West connectors
Pekanbaru-Padang
Palembang-Bengkulu
Tebing Tinggi-Sibolga
Legend
Project preparation
Land acquisition
Construction
Source: NRMP Final Report, Activity 206(a) Technical Assistance to DGH, IndII (June 2011)
Figure 11: Capacity Expansion Profile - Staged Development in Parallel Facilities over
Long-term 20-year Period - Sumatera Eastern Corridor
DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD CAPACITY IN EASTERN SUMATRA CORRIDOR - 2010 TO 2029
ARTERIAL NATIONAL ROAD WIDTH
Width m 14
10
7
6
5
101
102
103
B Aceh
104
105
106
107
108
Medan
Length km
644
Total distance 2536
109
110
111
Pekanbaru
112
113
Palembang Lampung
694
754
443
1892
1198
443
EXPRESSWAY
Dual C'way
B Aceh
Length km
460
Distance km 2014
102
103
104
Medan
105
106
107
108
109
Pekanbaru
110
111
112
113
Palembang Lampung
564
610
380
1554
990
380
Source: IndII Presentation based on data from NRMP Final Report, IndII June 2011.
22
The IndII study referred to this as a capacity expansion profile but the term capacity
expansion implementation plan is preferred.
29
The planned capacity standards can be seen in a strip map format in Figure 11, where
the width of the strip relates to the road width and the colour coding depicts the five
year RENSTRA period in which the capacity expansion is completed. The plan shows
that the arterial road will be widened to a minimum of seven m width from Lampung
to Medan by 2014, and that 944 km of the expressway should be completed first in the
Lampung-Palembang and Pekanbaru-Medan segments by 2019. By 2029, the
completed expressway would reduce the travel distance from Lampung-Banda Aceh by
20 percent from 2,530 km to 2,018 km. The arterial road would be at seven m width
standard for the entire length, with four-lane divided links being introduced around
the heavily trafficked cities of Medan and Pekanbaru by 2019 before the expressway is
completed.
Expected travel time reduction. To illustrate the benefits of the road corridor
development plan, Figure 12 shows how travel times from Lampung to Banda Aceh will
be reduced from the current 66 hours to 52 hours by 2019, 36 hours by 2024 and 25
hours by 2029. This means that, on completion of the expressway linking Medan to
Lampung planned by 2024, all areas in that part of the corridor would be accessible by
road within 24 hours (allowing for rest periods). Through 2019, most of the
improvements come from improvements to the national arterial road.
Figure 12: Travel Time Outcome Forecasts from Corridor Planning
Approach Sumatera Eastern Road Corridor
70
66
54
60
18
50
45
16
40
15
25
14
30
20
33
17
10
20
16
14
10
11
2009
2014
13
6
7
2019
2024
RENSTRA End-year
B Aceh
Medan
Pekanbaru
Palembang
Lampung
5
2029
Source: Data from NRMP Final Report, IndII (2011) with updated travel
time estimates, IndII (2012)
30
development and IDR 8 trillion on preservation, reducing to just under half that or IDR
0.9 trillion/year from 2020 onwards. For the expressways, the MARS and IndII analyses
show that only 4.4 percent, or IDR 8.5 trillion, of the IDR 193 trillion total cost for
development of the 2,735 km of expressways is financially attractive for private sector
investment even though the majority
of it is economically feasible and thus a
Figure 13: Funding Requirement Forecasts
sound development priority. Therefore
from Corridor Plan - Sumatera Easter Road
in this case, for the Sumatera eastern
Corridor
corridor
and
connectors,
the
government
would
need
to
provide
the
80
remaining IDR 184 trillion in some form
70
60
of VGF over the period from 2015 to
50
2029 in order to implement the
40
30
expressway scheme through PPP
20
concessions.
Defining appropriate
10
mechanisms
for
VGF, such as annuity0
2012-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29
type
schemes,
is thus an urgent
Expressway
2.613
54.866
61.451
73.866
development, E
necessity.
Arterial road
development, E
7.634
2.287
0.865
0.415
3.872
3.872
3.872
Arterial road
preservation, E
The road corridor development plan approach thus enables a robust expenditure plan
to be prepared which incorporates an optimised tradeoff between investments in the
arterial trunk road and a parallel expressway, scheduling that takes account of the lead
time needed for project preparation and land acquisition, and a linkage of connectivity
outcomes to funding requirements and sources.
31
4.3
Modernisation of the arterial road network to improve the capacity and safety is
crucial to achieving better connectivity and accessibility in the majority of the
country. Even when present plans for expressway development are complete,
reaching about 4,000 km by 2029, expressways will still comprise only about 10
percent of the national road network and then only in the most heavily trafficked
corridors in the west. Thus improving the connectivity in the majority of the national
road network, comprising 24 corridors of arterial roads with 30,000 km in length across
all regions, will also need to be a strong strategic priority for DGH in the next three
RENSTRA periods.
The existing incremental improvement strategy has been effective only in the
medium-term for addressing the inherited constraints of narrow right-of-way, high
curvature and weak road structures. Surface strengthening and incremental widening
without improved foundations have left many roads vulnerable to rapid deterioration
under heavy vehicles and overloading. Widening has often had negative impacts on
settlements, especially where strip development has evolved, and has reduced
curvature and improved speeds only marginally. As a result, spending on betterment
and land acquisition has had to be repeated within eight to 10 years instead of 20
years or more, and speeds are still low.
A Road Renewal Strategy would provide the long-term planning framework for
progressively upgrading arterial roads to modern standards and lowering annual
costs. A road renewal strategy applied to arterial roads would upgrade a road section
to modern standards at an appropriate time according to the priorities within the
network and region, and work progressively along each corridor. The existing road
would be replaced by a new road, built with modern alignment and cross-section, and
full reconstruction from the foundation up, resulting in an expected life of 20 years or
more. The new road would have better safety and reduced preservation needs in the
future, and a strong foundation to support growth in traffic and loading and future
strengthening, leading to lower annualised costs even though the initial cost is higher.
Road renewal would provide the opportunity to adopt the appropriate alignment for
the long-term. The alignment and location of the road would be designed for the longterm of 25-50 years, including appropriate provision for the full right-of-way. In many
instances the road would be realigned in the same location with improvements to the
curvature and cross-section. However in some sections, taking account of land-use and
spatial development plans, as well as geotechnical risks such as flooding, subsidence
and landslides, the location of the road may be moved to bypass a sensitive area or to
shorten the route length (see Figure 14). The location decision would be subjected to
feasibility study and may be incorporated in the corridor plan when the feasibility has
been established. One-off land acquisition, producing a long-term appropriate solution
for local circumstances, will avoid the need for further incremental acquisitions at a
later stage with the higher prices and social difficulties that entails.
32
From a strategic planning perspective, road renewal would be implemented at sublink level within a corridor and, being a long-term development investment, would
affect the prioritisation of preservation on the sub-link in the years prior to
implementation. As alignment and location need to be determined with longitudinal
continuity along a corridor, road renewal should be planned for a full sub-link and will
usually be implemented over a continuous multi-year period. This will also be
appropriate for community consultations, spatial development plans, environmental
conservation and land acquisition requirements. The prioritisation of a sub-link for
renewal will need to be made on both a national and regional basis, considering
budgetary allocation and regional economic priorities. Once prioritised for renewal,
preservation spending on the sub-link will need to be moderated to minimise
treatments and expenditures prior to the major investment in reconstruction.
Figure 14: A Road Renewal Strategy would Follow a Selected Long-term
Alignment Option
Source: Base map from DGH National Road Master Plan (2010), modified by
author. Note that the alignment options are shown only for illustrative purposes
and are not from the Master Plan.
From a technical perspective, road renewal would utilise the DGH road capacity
manual and the new DGH pavement design code that produces structurally efficient
long-life pavement designs with sound foundation and drainage design. Geometric
design standards for the alignment and profile appropriate to the chosen speed
environment and 20-50 year capacity requirements would be based on the DGH road
capacity manual, upgraded to improved safety standards. Foundation, drainage and
pavement design would utilise the new pavement design code currently being
deployed in DGH offices with IndII support. The design would have an expected life of
20 years or more before requiring major rehabilitation, reconstruction or
improvement, thus reducing future preservation needs to routine and periodic
maintenance alone.
33
In budgetary and financial terms, road renewal is expected to cost more than the
current incremental policy in terms of initial cost but less than the current spending
when annualised over five to 20 years. The current cost of road renewal with full road
reconstruction is in the order of IDR 5 billion/km for a full standard road of 7 m width
on 12 m formation. With future preservation costs, including routine and periodic
maintenance, totalling about IDR 100-150 million/km-year, the simple annualised costs
including both initial development and future preservation are expected to be in the
order of IDR 300-350 million/km/year over 20 years. This is about half of the current
spending level of about IDR 700 million/km-year (after separating bridge and other
spending). An annual allocation in the range of IDR 5 to 10 trillion/year would support
renewal of 1-2,000 km of road to full standard each year and thus could cover the
entire arterial road corridor network of 30,000 km in 15-25 years. Actual costs will
depend on terrain, road standard and land acquisition in individual cases.
A road renewal policy will be useful to underpin implementation of the renewal
strategy. Given the significant implications - first, in the planning of road capacity and
standards for long-term periods; second in making choices between local road
improvements, new highway, and expressway options in relation to spatial
development; and third in shaping the priorities for the five year RENSTRA plans and
for multi-year programming and budgeting a road renewal strategy needs to be
underpinned by a strong policy directive from DGH or the Minister on modernisation
of the arterial road network. Introducing a road renewal strategy would need
appropriate allocation of resources to road development in the RENSTRA, an
appropriate planning framework (such as the corridor planning approach) to prioritise
the road links and funding allocation, adequate consultation with affected
stakeholders at the local and regional levels, and appropriate internal guidance in DGH
to coordinate the programming and budgeting over the multi-year period required for
project preparation, land acquisition, and implementation at the balai level.
Renewal improves road curvature, sight distances and shoulders, and bridge
standards (note safe shoulders and walkways), Aceh. Photos by Timur Angin.
34
4.4
The strength of the road development planning framework becomes even more
evident in the forecasting of forward funding requirements and outcomes. As the
corridor plans generate funding requirements based on a specific capacity expansion
and construction project pipeline, and the road renewal strategy enables direct
estimates of funding requirements based on the length to be renewed, the framework
is able to generate forecasts of funding requirements on the whole network that are
linked directly to road improvements and thus to performance in terms of connectivity
and accessibility.
Expressway construction includes all of the north Java corridor (657 km) and all the
Sumatera eastern corridor (Lampung to Banda Aceh, plus three east-west
connectors Palembang-Bengkulu, Pekanbaru-Padang and Tebing Tinggii Sibolga)
(2,734 km) (see Annex B), plus an unspecified 300 km in the outer years as a token
part of a probable next phase of development.
Road renewal is applied to all arterial roads, totalling 30,300 km (Annex A),
beginning with trunk route corridors of 8,700 km.
Road preservation reduces from IDR 300 million/km-year to IDR 150 million/kmyear after road renewal.
The funding requirements forecast by the planning framework for this scenario are
summarised in Table 3 and Figure 15 below. This shows that the annual funding
requirements would need to rise - from the present IDR 32 trillion/year by 50 percent
to about IDR 48 trillion/year in the next 2015-19 RENSTRA and to about IDR 56
trillion/year in 2020-24, before falling again after 2025 - in order to implement the
priority works in the 15-year period.
35
Table 3: Estimates of Forward Funding Requirements for 2012-2029 from Planning Analysis
Expenditure Category
2010-14
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
2015-29
15-yr total
92
182
245
211
638
Expressway development
86
149
125
360
55
60
122
68
69
138
30
11
41
10
50
60
88
96
96
86
278
66
66
66
198
30
30
20
80
40
35
30
105
Road preservation
40
Road management
Total national road network
16
15
15
15
45
148
237
295
256
788
148
211
281
236
728
26
14
20
60
Source of Funds
Public funds
Private sector funds
Cumulative length modernised, km
Expressways
700
1.448
2.911
4.364
3.664
Arterial roads
1.953
12.953
23.953
26.900
24.947
Source: IndII analysis of data from IndII(2011), DGH and assumptions on road renewal strategy
implementation.
Figure 15: Forecast of Average Annual Funding Requirements on National Roads 2015-2029
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Road preservation
Road management
2005-09
2010-14
2015-19
2020-24
2025-29
Source: Data in Table 3 from IndII analysis of DGH data and IndII(2011).
Three main observations stand out with regard to the funding patterns:
36
The funding requirement for arterial road development would be essentially similar
to the current allocation, about IDR 19 trillion/year, but would be used in a
different way. The main focus would be on road renewal essentially replacement
of roads with modern road standards. The estimates are based on implementing
about 2,000 km of road renewal per year (which allows all to be completed within
15 years), allowing for some land acquisition and some sections to be at rates
higher than the norm of IDR 5 billion/km. A substantial amount is allowed as lump
sum for other development projects such as bridges, strategic road development
and improvement of accessibility standards in the eastern region.
The funding requirement for road preservation begins at the existing level but
declines as the arterial road network is renewed with roads of more durable
performance and lower maintenance needs.
The distribution of funding requirements over the 15-year period could be flattened
either by deferring projects from the middle period (2020-24) to the last period (202530) or by adopting PPP lifecycle payment mechanisms. Funding requirements in the
outer years, especially from 2030 onwards, are likely to stabilise but would be subject
to later analysis on a rolling basis that would reflect the development goals and needs
in the future.
The example here is based on a preliminary analysis for illustrative purposes and
several important caveats should be noted. Funding is shown in constant 2011 prices,
so does not reflect inflation. The distribution of funding requirements over time is
based simply on the pipelines generated by the analysis, and have not at this point
been moderated to take account of fiscal, administrative, spatial or industry capacity
constraints. Private sector investment levels are derived from the corridor studies and
the primary sources used in them. Apart from the road-specific data from the two
demonstration corridor studies, other data has been treated on an aggregate basis
with allowance for regional differences. With these caveats, the example is considered
to be broadly indicative of the strategic choices facing MPW and DGH at present.
23
This is an upside estimate assuming that the segments in the outer years become more
financially attractive by the time of concessioning. Forty percent of the investment potential
is associated with the north Java segments, which have financial rates of return of 14-28
percent and can expect 57 percent of the IDR 42 trillion funding requirements to come from
the private sector. About fifteen percent relates to the Sumatera expressways, and the
balance relates to the assumption for unspecified future projects in the outer years.
37
The linkage of funding flow to project delivery times makes it feasible to estimate
outcomes that result from the investment in road network development. The
measure of corridor travel times, which is seen as an indicator for connectivity, will
reflect the improved traffic capacity and the reduction of speed constraints, as well as
the shortening of corridor length. While specific corridor examples can be generated,
as shown in Figure 11 on page 36, it is also possible to generate more inclusive
indicators
that
are
representative
of
the
Figure 16: Example of Forecast Average Travel Time
network. The estimates of
based
on National Road Development Plan 2015-2029
the normalised travel times
for trunk road corridors
3.5
(which include use of an
Trunk routes
3.0
expressway where available
Other arterial roads
or alternatively the arterial
2.5
road) and other arterial
2.0
roads, as shown in Figure
1.5
16, link to the flow of
funding and the timing of
1.0
project
implementation
0.5
shown in the tables and
0.0
figures above. Thus, any
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
changes to the funding
End of RENSTRA Period
allocation or timing would
be reflected in the impact
Source: Author, analysis of program scenario in Table 3
on expected travel times,
using corridor plan methodology
and thus on connectivity.
4.5
38
forward funding requirements, and link the planned road infrastructure development
to development outcome indicators such as connectivity. Such a long-term plan would
provide the foundation and framework for preparation of the five year medium-term
plans (RPJM) and enable them to be consistent with the national guidelines on MTEF
and PBB.
The results of the example reinforce the message that DGH and MPW face a
particularly strong strategic challenge in expanding the capacity of national road
infrastructure to meet the connectivity goals and growing demand.
39
40
corridors compiled by DGH (see Annex A) as a starting point, the corridors should
be given a hierarchy that reflects the function they serve in the network and the
level of demand. The economic or social priority assigned to each route (for
example by the national spatial plan or an economic development plan) may be
reflected either in the hierarchy or preferably separately in an alternate
designation. Each corridor should have defined nodes which will serve as the
reference points for determining travel times and distances. A definition of
nautical roadway or highway, or similar, should be established to address interisland connections, including a protocol for representing travel times and distances
on the nautical segments either separate from or incorporated with travel in
adjoining land sections.
4. An expressway network should be defined as an identifiable network within
national roads and separate from arterial roads. The network would include all
expressway segments built or planned in the foreseeable long-term, forming a
contiguous interconnected network that would serve as the backbone of transregional and peri-urban road travel. Consideration may be given to including
interurban highways in sparsely developed areas in the network where they are
planned and located as a first stage of a potential expressway far in the future
beyond the long-term plan. Otherwise, another term, such as highway or highgrade highway may be used to designate such roads separately from the
expressway network. The expressway network would be defined in relation to the
national spatial plan, and would include the segments already identified in an
annex of the national road regulations, PP no. 26/2008.
5. An initial long-term master plan for national road infrastructure should be
prepared to serve as the basis for preparation of the 2015-19 RENSTRA. As the
time for preparation is short and the timeframe remaining within the current longterm plan is 15 years not 25 years, this initial plan would utilise existing data to the
extent possible and would limit any detailed analysis to the high priority corridors.
Methods for handling cases with different levels of data availability have been
outlined in the IndII study (2011). There are three scenarios - (i) where full
feasibility study data is available for the network in the corridor; (ii) where partial
feasibility study data is available; and (iii) where little or no formal data is available.
Using the corridor analysis approach, a capacity expansion profile would be
developed for each priority corridor. Forecasts of funding requirements and travel
time outcomes should be made, following the methodology outlined in this report
and by IndII(2011), to cover the national road network. The process is summarised
in Box 2 and in more detail in Annex C.
41
Box 2: Summary of Steps for Preparing the National Road Master Plan
1. Confirm priority economic corridors The priority of economic corridors for road
2. Define road corridors and their priority Within the priority economic corridors the
individual priority road corridors, and their relative priority, can be defined based on technical
criteria such as traffic volume/capacity ratio and on equity considerations.
3. Specify key measures of Levels of Service This includes desired travel times and Level
of Service between key nodes on an end to end basis in each road corridor with the aim to
provide full connectivity to the desired standard.
4. Adopt appropriate design standards This includes appropriate design speed, curvature,
gradient, road cross-section, and access controls, etc. defined with a long-term view,
appropriate for at least 20 years without major reconstruction or improvement.
5. Define the nation-wide expressway and highway network and supporting road access
in each road corridor, the desirable functional structure of the expressway network, the
arterial road network and the hierarchical structure of the supporting road network.
6. Identify connections between economic corridors including the capacity and design
standards of connections between economic corridors.
7. Prepare Road Corridor Development Plans Within priority road corridors, the indicative
priority needs to be determined for implementation of sections within the expressway or highgrade highway, their desired initial and long-term cross sections based on available
information (e.g. traffic volumes, traffic composition, traffic growth rates and capacity), and the
related land acquisition needs.
8. Develop a 20 year likely financing budget for each road corridor a capacity expansion
profile and a pipeline of sub-projects, with supporting actions and associated budget needs.
42
c. Prepare a multi-year capacity expansion activity profile for each arterial road
facility in the corridor (such as expressway and arterial roads), including project
preparation, land acquisition and construction activities, covering a 15-20 year
period with sequencing based on the economic priority of the works.
d. Prepare land acquisition plans and schedules based on the road plan and
capacity expansion activity profile for the selected scenarios, including cost
estimates and consultation process.
e. Evaluate improvement options for the supporting arterial and collector road
network in view of accessibility needs and targets and in relation to the spatial
development plan and regional development factors.
7. Calculate estimates and trends of outcome indicators such as road transport
demand, travel times and distances for the corridor, as a function of the capacity
expansion activity profile over time. Allowance for impedance to traffic flow
arising over time from traffic congestion or uncontrolled roadside activities should
be included where appropriate.
8. Prepare the multi-year schedule of unconstrained funding requirements for each
corridor, and develop a broad multi-year financing plan, including breakdown
showing public funding by category and potential for private sector investment.
The funding requirements and schedule should be based on the capacity expansion
activity profile and cost estimates for the preferred options, expressed in constant
current prices on a yearly or five yearly basis. The funding requirements should
include a breakdown into potential funding sources, including public funding
categories (expressway development, arterial road development, other road
development, road preservation and road management) and potential for private
sector investment based on an estimated financial internal rate of return24. It is
useful to identify the land acquisition element of development expenditures.
9. Prepare the long-term development and expenditure plan for the national road
network, together with forecasts of key outcome indicators, for a range of
funding scenarios. By compiling forecasts from corridor plans and other national
road needs, successive medium-term development plans and funding
requirements will be developed for the entire national road network. This will
include plans for other parts of the network such as urban roads, strategic roads
and collector roads. Scenarios covering high, medium and low funding resource
envelopes would be developed, taking account of fiscal constraints from the
Ministry of Finance (MoF), regional and spatial development policy from Bappenas,
and other relevant planning policy guidance. This process would also take into
account risk assessments on the availability of private sector investment, the
implementation capacity and capability of the construction sector, the land
acquisition process, and the performance of DGH and BPJT in program delivery.
24
Recent expressway studies for MPW, as well as the IndII (2011) study, have used 22 percent
FIRR as a threshold for attracting private sector investment.
43
5.1
DGH-BIPRAN
DGH, and Bipran in particular, would be responsible for adapting the DGH road
development policy to the new paradigm and for implementing the new planning
framework set out in Section 4.
44
The process of consultation at local and regional levels needed for acceptance of
the long-term plan and road alignment strategy.
The most important aim in the planning process will be to ensure that the right roads
are being built in support of the nations long-term social and economic development.
45
analyses to ensure that all schemes going into the project pipeline are rigorously
assessed and based upon sound strategic criteria. This requires a more comprehensive
approach than currently used. A planning team could be established and properly
resourced to undertake this role.
5.2
BPJT
BPJT at present is responsible for the procurement and delivery of toll roads and for
the concessioning of toll roads built with government funds. Since, at the present time,
all expressway development is planned as toll roads, BPJT is in effect a de facto
expressway authority. However, in order to shift the focus to an identifiable
expressway network and to allow for the possibility of non-tolled expressways in the
future, the remit of BPJT, in whatever its final form, would need to be broadened to
cover all expressways. The formal conversion of BPJT to an Indonesian Expressway
Development Authority may be appropriate in the medium term.
BPJT would be responsible for the delivery of the priority expressways identified by
DGH. BPJT will package the roads into projects, undertake the financial evaluation of
each project, determine the most appropriate concession type and develop and
negotiate the concession. BPJT will be required to manage its own budget from which
it will need to cover land acquisition well in advance of project commencement, any
VGF that might be required at concession negotiation, and the direct construction
costs of projects that are to proceed without private sector funds.
The evaluation and project management responsibilities would require access (either
in-house or via consultants) to high calibre planning, technical, financial and
management expertise. The concession negotiation process will require effective
preparation and negotiation to ensure that societys interests are safeguarded. This
will require a substantial enhancement of BPJT resources and capabilities and would
require BPJT to be supplemented significantly by specialist outside expertise.
The preliminary findings of the IndII (2011) study on BPJT needs included:
46
the private sector perceives risk and the principles of risk allocation. BPJT would
therefore manage all key tasks undertaken by its specialist consultants.
Considerable annual budgets would be needed to retain and therefore access the
needed specialists speedily.
Its own land acquisition unit and specialists capable of processing a large volume
of transactions and satisfying government and donor requirements on
environment and social safeguards. The private sector will not be attracted to
invest in projects where there are risks they cannot manage such as the timely
delivery of land and the necessary environmental and social safeguards clearances.
47
The Framework for Planning Development of the National Road Network described in
this report shows how a long-term Master Plan could be prepared that is linked to
national development goals such as connectivity, and guides the funding requirements
and the physical road development program in successive five year medium-term
plans. The Master Plan would comprehensively identify the future expressway,
highway and arterial road network, together with the implementation steps, required
resources, policies and standards.
The Framework proposes a two-pronged approach to the planning of road network
development:
48
Long-term road corridor plans that would be used to identify the future
expressway, highway and arterial road network in each national road corridor, for a
20-50 year horizon. Each plan would optimise connectivity and road capacity to
support the forecast transport demand and social and economic development for
20-25 years in the context of the national spatial plan, and take into account
longer-range options out to 50 years.
A preliminary application of the planning framework has shown the large magnitude
of the backlog in capacity development of the national road network. Public spending
on national roads would need to rise by 66 percent from the present level of IDR 30
trillion/year to an average of IDR 49 trillion/year over the 15-year period remaining in
the current long-term plan (RPJN). All the increase would need to be allocated to road
development, raising its allocation to about 80 percent of the total.
An investment of IDR 638 trillion (in 2011 prices) in road development would be
needed to improve connectivity by over 40 percent in terms of travel times, especially
in the priority economic corridors, over the 15 year period 2015-29. A little over half of
this, IDR 360 trillion, would be required to build 3,700 km of expressway connecting
the countrys main economic corridors of north Java and east Sumatera, from Surabaya
to Medan and links to neighbouring centres. Of this, about one sixth or IDR 60 trillion
is likely to attract private sector investment, leaving about IDR 300 trillion to be
provided in public funds through VGF or other mechanisms such as annuity and lifecycle funding models. The remaining IDR 278 trillion would be invested in the renewal
of 25,000 km of arterial roads and in improvements to bridges, strategic roads and
other national roads.
The following are a number of actions which could be taken to implement the
proposed planning framework, with the aim of stimulating the development of the
national road network to achieve the goals of the long-term national development
plan, RPJN25:
Road network development needs to become the strategic priority for DGH, with
road preservation taking a secondary role. The planning of road network
development requires a proactive and long-term approach, planning the
investment projects, road standards and funding five to 20 years in advance.
Revisions will need to be made to some policies, regulations and laws to reflect
and support the shift in strategic priority and the modernisation of the national
road network.
A formal plan for road corridors, incorporating trunk routes and arterial routes,
should be defined in relation to the national spatial plan and form the basis of
national road network planning.
25
More details are provided in section 4.5 and section 5 of the main text.
49
Outcome indicators - such as road transport demand, travel times and distances
for the corridor and their forecast trends in each corridor, should be estimated as
a function of the capacity expansion activity profile over time.
A long-term development and expenditure plan for the national road network,
together with forecasts of key outcome indicators, for a range of funding scenarios,
should be prepared by compiling the forecasts from corridor plans and other
national road needs across the national road network.
Support for internal dialogue on the proposed planning framework, the future
program and funding implications, and the shift in strategic priority for DGH.
Undertake initial study and surveys to define travel times and corridors.
Prepare the Preliminary National Road Master Plan, with technical assistance
as needed.
Build BPJTs managerial and technical capacity to expedite delivery of a highcapacity expressway network:
50
Build managerial and technical capacity in BPJT for project preparation and
processing of transactions.
Review and strengthen the role of the land acquisition BLU in line with the new
law and pending regulations.
The issues raised by this report are far-reaching and have significant implications for
the direction of policies and allocation of funding for development and expansion of
the national road network. However as noted there is a critical window of opportunity
during 2013 when the 2015-19 RENSTRA is being prepared, for the strategic issues in
the report to be considered and addressed in the directions being set for future
spending on the national road network.
Modern roads bring smooth, safe travel and access to amenities and
markets, Aceh. Photo by Timur Angin.
51
ANNEXES
ANNEXE 1: NATIONAL MASTER PLAN FOR ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
The DGH National Master Plan for Road Infrastructure Development (Tentang Rencana
Umum Jaringan Jalan Nasional), issued by MPW under 567/KPTS/M/2010, includes the
identification of the following 24 road corridors in the national road network. Table 4
below includes the data on corridor road length and the extent of road widening
undertaken during the current RENSTRA under the expenditure category of road
development.
Table 4. Current Development in National Arterial Road Corridors of the National Master Plan
Island
Sumatera
Java
Kalimantan
Road Corridor
52
Minimum
Width
Standard
(km)
(km)
(m)
2.790
1.240
7,0
Middle
2.473
1.220
6,0
West
2.535
1.230
4,5
Pantura north
1.363
310
7,0
Middle Cross
1.191
380
6,0
South Cross
725
190
6,0
1.637
550
4,5
South Cross
3.299
1.450
6,0
Middle Cross
1.684
670
4,5
270
4,5
477
390
4,5
West Cross
2.107
1.410
6,0
Middle Cross
2.082
920
4,5
East Cross
1.823
830
4,5
Bali North-cross
200
77
4,5
Bali South-cross
235
58
6,0
Border Cross
Bali-NTT
Capacity
Expansion
2010-14
East
North Cross
Sulawesi
Current Road
Length
ANNEXES
Island
Road Corridor
Current Road
Length
Capacity
Expansion
2010-14
Minimum
Width
Standard
(km)
(km)
(m)
Trans-Lombok
119
6,0
Trans-Sumbawa
434
391
4,5
Trans-Flores
677
455
4,5
Trans-Timor
348
140
4,5
Trans-Seram
430
340
4,5
Trans-Buru
252
65
4,5
Trans-Halmahera
353
280
4,5
3.131
1.220
4,5
30.367
14.093
15.865
7.745
4,5
6 m width
9.914
4.657
6,0
7 m width
4.153
1.550
7,0
Maluku - Papua
Total
Source: Current national road master plan data from Bipran, DGH (2011)
7 m width
14%
6 m width
33%
4.5 m width
53%
53
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Expressway segment
Cikampek-Palimanan
Kanci-Pejagan
Pejagan-Pemalang
Pemalang-Batang
Batang-Semarang
Semarang-Solo
Solo-Matingan
Mantingan-Ngawi
Ngawi-Kertosono
Kertosono-Mojokerto
Mojokerto-Surabaya
Total N Java Corridor
Data source
87
21
35
26
45
70
25
17
45
29
31
431,45
174
43
70
52
89
140
50
34
90
59
62
862,9
791
200
194
658
1077
662
446
894
290
633
5845
7.359
1.650
2.943
2.195
3.776
5.941
2.123
1.430
3.795
2.490
2.639
36341
Total IDR b
Construc
tion unit
cost IDR
b/km58
8.411
55
3.248
51
2.467
52
4.568
48
7.228
79
2.860
43
1.927
43
4.824
41
2.868
57
3.365
88
41.766
55
1
BCR
NPV
IDR b
10,0 51.955
5,0
6.517
4,9 11.252
5,7
8.459
8,7 26.038
4,6 22.068
5,1 10.485
3,4
4.110
6,6 18.874
5,6
9.427
5,8 11.443
6,3 180.628
4
73
47
46
52
66
42
45
34
53
50
49
53
VGF IDR b
28%
18%
17%
18%
25%
17%
17%
14%
22%
18%
19%
0%
45%
53%
41%
0%
52%
54%
74%
26%
53%
43%
33%
743
1.560
900
3.089
1.146
1.058
987
1.320
1.135
11.937
1. IndII (2011). Deliverable 7 National Road Master Plan Process (Final) - Table 8.2
2. ibid. Section 8.2, p 36
3. IndII (2011) Working Paper on Corridor Analysis. Package 2 Development of NRMP - Table 2.2
page 12
4. ibid. Table 3.1 page 14
5. ibid. Table 4.2 page 20
6. Data not presented in ref. 3 - filled from basis used in ref. 1
Table 6. Economic and Financial data: Sumatera East Corridor Expressways
No.
Expressway segment
1
2
3
4
Bakauheni-Palembang
Palembang-Pekanbaru
Pekanbaru-Medan
Medan-B.Aceh
Subtotal South-North
5 Palembang-Bengkulu
6 Pekanbaru-Padang
7 T.Tinggi-Sibolga
Subtotal Connectors
Total - East Corridor
Data source
380
610
564
460
2.014
303
242
175
720
2.734
269
463
489
328
1.549
292
343
204
839
2.388
537
925
978
655
3.095
585
685
408
1.678
4.773
2.201
4.382
4.277
3.225
14.085
2.622
3.703
2.977
9.302
23.387
BCR
NPV
IDR b
1,75
0,66 1,03
0,57
0,46 0,61 0,31 -
3.493
3.123
151
-2314
-1.793
3.249
2.798
3.141
9.188
-10.981
20,1
11,2
15,3
9,8
11%
7,9
10,5
4,3
54
ANNEXES
1.
Define the overall 20 plus year framework that shows the structure of the desired
expressway network and supporting arterial road network to be developed, and
gives clear indications of how it will be realised, and, by so doing:
26
Long-term network refinements and development plans for national expressway and
supporting arterial and collector roads along key road corridors in the economic corridors is
required. Further, the economic corridors need to be broken down into logical sub-corridors
55
the national expressway and supporting road network structure. Their outputs would
also identify a series of phased sub-projects and supporting implementation actions in
the following time periods: (i) One to three years for the Annual Work Plans and rolling
programs; (ii) Four to 10 years 27 to indicate the road investments and actions needed
for the medium term; and (iii) 10 to 20 years on an indicative basis.
This framework is illustrated in Figure that indicates that it would be possible to
complete a Preliminary National Road Master Plan within one year and progressively
develop a more comprehensive Master Plan within five years if extensive resources are
allocated to support the planning effort. Road Corridor Development Plans would be
updated after five years depending on local circumstances to inform subsequent
updating of the Master Plan.
Similar planning and development of other provincial and urban road networks is
required but this is a separate task not addressed in this report.
2.
Preparation Steps
This section provides more detail on the steps for preparation of the National Road
Master Plan, set out in Box 2 on page 42, that are DGH-Biprans responsibility.
Step 1 Confirm Priority Economic Corridors
The priority economic corridors would be expected to be identified by Bappenas since
national, economic, and social development matters need to be considered.
Step 2 Define Road Corridors and Their Priority
DGH-Bipran and Bappenas would prioritise the road corridors (within economic
corridors) based on technical criteria such as traffic volume/capacity ratio plus social
accessibility needs. Prioritisation is essential as resources need to be focused on where
the need and benefit to be achieved is high.
Step 3 Specify Key Measures of Levels of Service
Desired travel times and Levels of Service between key nodes on an end to end basis
in each road corridor of the six priority economic corridors should be determined.
However, given that the various geographic regions have different topography,
development characteristics, and existing road infrastructure, the Levels of Service are
likely to be differentiated by region. For example, in a mountainous region desired
travel speeds may be lower than in a region with flat or rolling topography.
to aid focusing of effort. The term road corridor is used in the conventional sense meaning
that it could include possible alternative alignments or completely new parallel roads.
27
And hence the forward programs contained in the Five-year RENSTRAs.
56
ANNEXES
Preliminary National
Expressway Master Plan
Updated National
Expressway Master Plan I
Informs:
network structure,
1-3 year rolling
program, 4 to 10
years, and 10 to 20
years indicative
IndII 1
Concept Road
Corridor Development
Plan 1 East Sumatra
Continued below
Road Corridor
Development Plan 3
1 year
Road Corridor
Development Plan 4
3 years
Updated National
Expressway Master Plan II
Informs:
network structure,
1-3 year rolling
program, 4 to 10
years, and 10 to 20
years indicative
Repeat/ update
every 5 years
Road Corridor
Development Plan 5
Road Corridor
Development Plan 6
Road Corridor
Development Plans
5 years
57
Provision of free lanes adjacent to tolled lanes may be needed on some new
expressway sections that are to be tolled and where no existing road can provide
the function of a free alternative.
Need for a full modern road standard for all road widening(that is 7 m or 14 m
carriageway, 80 km/hour design speed and geometry, and 20-40 year design life to
ensure low maintenance needs).
Axle loads for pavement design and bridge loading should be aligned with future
ASEAN and other international standards, such as 11 tonnes or 13 tonnes
maximum axle load.
In low traffic regions guidelines would assist the design of roads appropriate to the
generally low traffic volumes and their future function for instance adopt modern
alignment for future economic growth, initial two lanes later with possible provision to
expand to future expressway standard in the very long term.
Step 5 Define the Expressway Network and Supporting Road Needs
A primary road hierarchy would be defined in each road corridor. The long distance
travel requirement would be catered for by the definition of the expressway network
and its alignment. In most cases, new expressways on new alignments would need to
be identified. Satellite imagery followed up by field work can be used to verify the
likely feasibility of identified new expressway sections in an economical way. In this
way, new investigations can supplement the tolled road network and the arterial roads
identified in the National Spatial Plan. Local distribution roads also need to be
addressed.
The performance of existing arterials is likely to be important as the possible free
alternative if a tolled expressway is to be developed, and for distribution of
expressway traffic. It would be also necessary to identify which existing roads are
actually performing the major arterial functions. In some cases, a provincial road may
be performing a key arterial function and may require appropriate upgrading to best
perform it and in the medium term may need to be re-classified as a national road.
The indicative priority of identified expressway sections (i.e. sub-projects) and the
desired initial and long term cross sections should be identified where possible based
on available information on traffic volumes, composition and growth rates. Where
there is sufficient information, these requirements should be translated into road
corridor concept plans so that indicative land acquisition for the entire network at
ultimate development can be identified and approximate budgets determined.
Indicative land acquisition schedules would need to take into account availability of
funding and the vulnerability of expressway sections to encroachment. In green field
situations, land acquisition requirements should be able to be determined quite
precisely through use of the concept plans. However in non-green field areas the
58
ANNEXES
subsequent detailed Road Corridor Development Plans would need to identify the land
acquisition needs indicatively and as reliably as possible subject to the outcome of
consultations.
The preferred road alignments should be determined on technical grounds in the first
instance, on the availability of road rights of way in provinces and local government
areas, and on consultation with provincial and local officials.
A key policy issue is when and under what circumstances should an expressway be
tolled. The National Road Master Plan does not have to determine what is tolled or
untolled. This matter would be determined during the preparation of the subsequent
Corridor Development Plans.
The output of this step would be the Preliminary National Road Master Plan to be
prepared by DGH-Bipran with technical support.
Step 6 Identify Connections Between Economic Corridors
All economic corridors would have to be linked appropriately. Such links should be
included in Road Corridor Development Plans.
Step 7 Prepare Road Corridor Development Plans
The proposed Road Corridor Development Plans (for each key sub-corridor of the
Economic Corridors) are fundamental for developing realistic rolling investment
programs that fit within a strategic framework. They are the means by which the
desired integrated network of expressways and supporting modern highways (i.e. the
key supporting arterials and collectors) would be developed.
The responsibility for the preparation of the Road Corridor Development Plans belongs
to DGH-Bipran. Bipran would take the work to the pre-feasibility stage of project
preparation. Under current institutional and legal arrangements, DGH-Bipran would
determine the scope for private sector involvement in general terms. Where private
sector involvement is considered desirable (or possible) the project would be
transferred to BPJT for further project preparation and business case development
including detailed determination of the mode of delivery (i.e. whether public or
private) with the aim of taking the project to implementation.
Process for Identification of Capacity Needs
The approach developed makes full use of existing studies and available data. Where
studies are recent and comprehensive (i.e. cover all classes of relevant road and have
the correct geographical scope) then the process of identification of capacity needs
and the associated activities and sub-projects would be straightforward. Where
background studies are not up to date, and data are scarce, more field work, traffic
count data and practical strategic planning would be required. Detailed traffic
modelling would likely only be needed in the vicinity of the Jakarta conurbation and
the other metropolitan centres where complex network effects are likely.
59
A capacity expansion profile would be developed for each major road corridor in each
economic corridor and the road investment strategy whereby this is to be achieved, for
example through expressway construction, development of new arterial roads, or
widening of existing roads would be determined by using appropriate threshold traffic
capacities relevant to each class of road for the desired level of service and traffic
composition.
The development strategy would at first be determined using current and forecast
traffic volumes (based on assumed traffic growth rates) and comparing them to the
chosen threshold capacities. In this way, the desired ultimate road cross section could
be determined fairly well in most cases.
Economic evaluation and consideration of non-economic factors would be used to
confirm the most viable or socially desirable road projects and sequence of subprojects. Since the aim is end to end node to node connectivity, appropriate decisions
on sub-project packaging would be required.
The capacity expansion profile for each road corridor in each economic sub-corridor
together with the results of analysis being undertaken on optimal investment
strategies for road preservation (supported by IndII under a separate activity), will
enable the Road Corridor Development Plans to give broad indications of:
The shares of funds which should be allocated on economic grounds to the various
types of road investment (for instance capacity toll road development and land
acquisition needs; arterial road widening; preservation periodic maintenance,
strengthening, reconstruction).
The locations to which the DGH should be giving priority for investment in road
capacity expansion.
60
ANNEXES
3.
In the preparation of the Master Plan and the Road Corridor Development Plans,
environmental and social considerations would need to be appropriately addressed.
3.1.
Environment
The above regulation and guidelines are applicable at the project (and sub-project)
level. Although those regulatory frameworks have afforded some protection to the
environment, it is inadequate for environmental consideration at the plans, strategies
and policies level. Article 14 of Act no. 32 Year 2009 regarding Environmental
Protection and Management suggested the national or local government to implement
the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for each proposed project development
at the plans, strategies and policies level.
61
3.2.
62
ANNEXES
REFERENCES
Asian Development Bank, Japan Bank for International Cooperation & the World Bank
(2005) Connecting East Asia: A New Framework for Infrastructure.
Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs (2011), Masterplan Acceleration and
Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011 2025. (Masterplan Percepatan
dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia MP3EI)
Eric Howard & Associates (2008), Initial Investigation of a Possible AusAID Road Safety
Project in Indonesia. Prepared for AusAid. July.
IndII (2010), Application of Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Performance
Based Budgeting in Directorate General of Highways Indonesia., prepared for
Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII) by Paterson, W. and Harahap, G., February.
IndII (2011), DGH Road Development Program Package 2 Activity 206a Technical
Assistance to DGH Various Reports., prepared for Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative
by AECOM Ltd., June.
IndII (2011a), Considerations for Future Support by IndII Phase 2 to the Road Sector in
Indonesia, Working paper of Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative for AusAID, August.
JARNS (2001). Java Arterial Road Network Study, Final Report, prepared for Ministry
of Public Works, IBRD Loan 3913 IND, October.
MARS (2010). The Establishment of a Master Plan for the Arterial Road Network in
Sumatra Island, Final Report, prepared for Korea International Cooperation Agency
and Ministry of Public Works, July.
World
Bank
(2010),
Logistics
Performance
Index
Web
Site.
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[http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/IND
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63