DividendDiscountModel

Assumptions

Inputsneeded

Howthemodelworks

OptionsAvailable

1.Thefirmisexpectedtogrowatahighergrowthrateinthefirstperiod.
2.Thegrowthratewilldropattheendofthefirstperiodtothestablegrowthrate.
3.Thedividendpayoutratioisconsistentwiththeexpectedgrowthrate.
1.Lengthofhighgrowthperiod
2.Expectedgrowthrateinearningsduringthehighgrowthperiod.
3.Dividendpayoutratioduringthehighgrowthperiod.
4.Expectedgrowthrateinearningsduringthestablegrowthperiod.
5.Expectedpayoutratioduringthestablegrowthperiod.
6.CurrentEarningspershare
7.InputsfortheCostofEquity
Theexpecteddividendsareestimatedforthehighgrowthperiod,usingthepayout
ratioforthehighgrowthperiodandtheexpectedgrowthrateinearningspershare.
Theexpectedgrowthrateisestimatedeitherusingfundamentals:
Expectedgrowth=RetentionRatio*ReturnonEquity
Alternatively,youcaninputtheexpectedgrowthrate.
Attheendofthehighgrowthphase,theexpectedterminalpriceisestimatedusing
dividendspershareoneyearafterthehighgrowthperiod,usingthegrowthrate
instablegrowth,thepayoutratioinstablegrowthandthecostofequityinstable
growth.
Thedividendspershareandtheterminalpricearediscountedbacktothepresentat
thecostofequitychanges.
Ifyourcostofequityinstablegrowthisdifferentfromyourcostofequityinhigh
growth,thecostofequityinthesecondhalfofthestablegrowthperiodwillbe
adjustedgraduallyfromthehighgrowthcostofequitytoastablegrowthcostof
equity.
Youcanmakethismodelintoathreestagemodelbyansweringyestothequestion
ofwhetheryouwantmetoadjusttheinputsinthesecondhalfofthehighgrowth
period.Ifyoudo,Iwilladjustthegrowthrate,thepayoutratioandthecostof
equityfromhighgrowthlevelstostablegrowthlevelsgradually.
Youcanalsomakethisastablegrowthmodelbysettingthehigh
growthperiodtozero.

countModel

Inputsfromcurrentfinancials
NetIncome=
BookValueofEquity=
CurrentEarningspershare=
CurrentDividendspershare=
Numberofsharesoutstanding=
Doyouwanttonormalizethenetincome/earningspershare?
InputsforDiscountRate
Betaofthestock=
Riskfreerate=
RiskPremium=
InputsforHighGrowthPeriod
Lengthofhighgrowthperiod
Entertheinputsforfundamentalgrowthandbookvalueofequity
ROE=
Retention=
Doyouwanttochangeanyoftheseinputsforthehighgrowthperiod
Ifyes,specifythevaluesfortheseinputs(Pleaseenterallvariables)
ROE=
Retention=
Doyouwanttochangeanyoftheseinputsforthestablegrowthperi
Ifyes,specifythevaluesfortheseinputs
ROE=
Doyouwantmetograduallyadjustyourinputsduringthesecondha
InputsforStableGrowthPeriod
Entergrowthrateinstablegrowthperiod?

$4,791.00
$17,997.00
$4.75
$0.92
1120.713
No

1.1500
5.00%
4.00%

Lastyear
$15,518.00
(incurrency)
(incurrency)

(inpercent)
(inpercent)

10

30.87%
80.63%
Yes

(inpercent)
(inpercent)

25.00%
80.63%
Yes

(inpercent)
(inpercent)

15.00%

(inpercent)

Yes

5.00%

(inpercent)

Stablepayoutratiofromfundamentalsis=
Doyouwanttochangethispayoutratio?
Ifyes,enterthestablepayoutratio=

66.67%
No

(inpercent)
(YesorNo)
(inpercent)

Willthebetatochangeinthestableperiod?
Ifyes,enterthebetaforstableperiod=
Entertheriskpremiumtouseinstableperiod=

Yes
1.10
4.00%

(YesorNo)

(incurrency)
(incurrency)

Choosetheapproachtonormalizedearnings
Approach1:AverageNetIncomeoverlast5years
NetIncome
Approach2:Normalizedreturnonequity
NormalizedROE=

NormalizedEarningsCalculation

1
5
$1,662.00
22%

4
$2,533.00

3
$1,876.00

lizedEarningsCalculation
2
$1,933.00

Current
$2,122.00

Average
$2,025.20

ReturnonEquity=
RetentionRatio=
Expectedgrowthrate=
Costofequity=
NetIncome
EquityCost(seebelow)
ExcessEquityReturn
TerminalValueofExcessEq
CumulatedCostofEquity
PresentValue
BeginningBVofEquity
CostofEquity
EquityCost
ReturnonEquity
NetIncome
DividendPayoutRatio
Dividendspaid
RetainedEarnings
EquityInvested=
PVofEquityExcessReturn=
ValueofEquity=
Numberofshares=
ValuePerShare=

25.00%
80.63%
20.16%
9.60%
1
$4,499.25
$1,727.71
$2,771.54
1.09600
$2,528.78

2
$5,406.20
$2,075.98
$3,330.22
1.20122
$2,772.38

3
$6,495.98
$2,494.46
$4,001.52
1.31653
$3,039.44

4
$7,805.43
$2,997.29
$4,808.15
1.44292
$3,332.23

5
$9,378.85
$3,601.48
$5,777.37
1.58144
$3,653.23

$17,997.00
9.60%
$1,727.71

$21,624.82
9.60%
$2,075.98

$25,983.92
9.60%
$2,494.46

$31,221.74
9.60%
$2,997.29

$37,515.38
9.60%
$3,601.48

25.00%
$4,499.25
19.37%
$871.43
$3,627.82

25.00%
$5,406.20
19.37%
$1,047.10
$4,359.11

25.00%
$6,495.98
19.37%
$1,258.17
$5,237.81

25.00%
$7,805.43
19.37%
$1,511.79
$6,293.64

25.00%
$9,378.85
19.37%
$1,816.53
$7,562.31

$17,997.00
$65,993.76
$83,990.76
1120.713
$74.94

6
$10,367.87
$4,309.43
$6,058.44
1.73263
$3,496.68

7
$11,015.91
$4,993.88
$6,022.03
1.89757
$3,173.54

8
$11,258.43
$5,617.36
$5,641.06
2.07746
$2,715.36

9
$11,073.41
$6,149.00
$4,924.41
2.27357
$2,165.93

10
TerminalYear
$10,481.45
$11,005.52
$6,568.38
$6,896.79
$3,913.07
$4,108.73
$93,380.20
2.48729
$39,116.18

$45,077.69
9.56%
$4,309.43

$52,456.70
9.52%
$4,993.88

$59,254.87
9.48%
$5,617.36

$65,137.70
9.44%
$6,149.00

$69,876.34
9.40%
$6,568.38

$73,370.15
9.40%
$6,896.79

23.00%
$10,367.87
28.83%
$2,988.86
$7,379.01

21.00%
$11,015.91
38.29%
$4,217.74
$6,798.17

19.00%
$11,258.43
47.75%
$5,375.60
$5,882.82

17.00%
$11,073.41
57.21%
$6,334.77
$4,738.64

15.00%
$10,481.45
66.67%
$6,987.63
$3,493.82

15.00%
$11,005.52
66.67%