Siena GOP 19th CD Crosstabs 6-7-16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll
May 31-June 2, 2016

436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Q1. Is the United States on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
Gender
Right track
Wrong direction
Don't know/No opinion
Total
9%
86%
5%
Male
9%
86%
5%
Female
9%
86%
5%
Vote Choice
Faso
8%
88%
4%
Heaney
10%
85%
4%
Ulster/
Dutchess
10%
86%
4%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Montgomery/Schoharie/
Delaware/Otsego
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
9%
8%
84%
87%
6%
6%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
4%
10%
90%
84%
6%
5%
Religion
Cath
9%
84%
6%
Prot
7%
89%
4%
Political View
Other
17%
76%
7%
Mod
15%
75%
10%
Conserv
4%
93%
2%
I'm going to read a series of names of people and institutions in public life and I'd like you to tell me whether you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of each person or institution I name. [Q2-Q10 ROTATED]
Q2. Zephyr Teachout
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Age
Religion
Political View
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Under 55 and
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
55
older Cath Prot Other Mod Conserv
Favorable
11%
11%
11%
8%
16%
14%
10%
8%
11%
10%
11% 10%
13%
15%
8%
Unfavorable
27%
27%
27%
37%
25%
21%
24%
35%
34%
25%
32% 24%
24%
24%
29%
62%
62%
62%
55%
59%
65%
65%
57%
55%
65%
57% 66%
63%
61%
63%
Q3. John Faso
Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
47%
30%
23%
Male
47%
31%
22%
Female
48%
29%
24%
Vote Choice
Faso
81%
9%
11%
Heaney
12%
69%
19%
Ulster/
Dutchess
39%
33%
29%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
45%
57%
24%
32%
31%
11%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
42%
49%
36%
28%
22%
23%
Ulster/
Dutchess
35%
31%
33%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
30%
23%
42%
59%
28%
18%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
30%
29%
50%
43%
20%
28%
Ulster/
Dutchess
15%
84%
1%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
13%
15%
85%
84%
2%
1%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
9%
17%
90%
82%
1%
1%
Ulster/
Dutchess
9%
90%
1%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
11%
10%
87%
87%
2%
3%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
6%
11%
91%
87%
3%
2%
Religion
Cath
48%
32%
21%
Prot
49%
27%
24%
Political View
Other
44%
37%
20%
Mod
44%
33%
23%
Conserv
49%
28%
23%
Q4. Andrew Heaney

Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
29%
45%
26%
Male
26%
45%
29%
Female
32%
45%
23%
Vote Choice
Faso
12%
68%
20%
Heaney
75%
13%
11%
Religion
Cath
27%
43%
30%
Prot
31%
45%
24%
Political View
Other
34%
46%
20%
Mod
34%
39%
27%
Conserv
27%
48%
25%
Q5. Barack Obama

Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
15%
84%
1%
Male
14%
86%
1%
Female
16%
82%
2%
Vote Choice
Faso
11%
88%
1%
Heaney
16%
83%
1%
Religion
Cath
14%
85%
1%
Prot
14%
85%
1%
Political View
Other
21%
76%
3%
Mod
24%
72%
4%
Conserv
7%
93%
0%
Q6. Hillary Clinton

Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
10%
88%
2%
Male
8%
91%
1%
Female
12%
85%
3%
Vote Choice
Faso
7%
91%
2%
Heaney
16%
82%
2%
CD19616R_Crosstabs
Religion
Cath
11%
88%
1%
Prot
8%
90%
2%
Political View
Other
13%
80%
7%
Mod
17%
79%
4%
Conserv
4%
95%
1%
1 of 5

May 31-June 2, 2016
MOE +/- 4.8%
Q7. Bernie Sanders
Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
25%
71%
4%
Male
24%
71%
5%
Female
26%
71%
3%
Vote Choice
Faso
23%
73%
4%
Heaney
30%
67%
4%
Ulster/
Dutchess
25%
72%
3%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
22%
26%
72%
69%
5%
5%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
21%
26%
76%
69%
3%
5%
Ulster/
Dutchess
62%
32%
5%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
69%
64%
28%
32%
3%
3%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
62%
66%
35%
30%
3%
4%
Ulster/
Dutchess
85%
8%
7%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
83%
90%
6%
7%
11%
3%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
82%
88%
12%
6%
7%
7%
Ulster/
Dutchess
2%
15%
84%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
5%
7%
14%
20%
81%
73%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
10%
2%
27%
13%
64%
85%
Religion
Cath
26%
72%
2%
Prot
23%
71%
6%
Political View
Other
29%
66%
5%
Mod
38%
55%
7%
Conserv
17%
80%
4%
Q8. Donald Trump

Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
65%
31%
4%
Male
71%
26%
3%
Female
59%
37%
5%
Vote Choice
Faso
65%
30%
4%
Heaney
69%
29%
2%
Religion
Cath
72%
26%
2%
Prot
61%
35%
5%
Political View
Other
61%
31%
7%
Mod
52%
43%
4%
Conserv
74%
22%
4%
Q9. Chris Gibson

Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
86%
7%
7%
Male
90%
7%
4%
Female
82%
8%
11%
Vote Choice
Faso
91%
6%
3%
Heaney
87%
9%
5%
Religion
Cath
88%
7%
5%
Prot
84%
7%
9%
Political View
Other
91%
5%
3%
Mod
89%
5%
6%
Conserv
86%
8%
7%
Q10. Will Yandik

Gender
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
4%
17%
79%
Male
4%
21%
75%
Female
5%
11%
84%
Vote Choice
Faso
5%
21%
74%
Heaney
4%
15%
81%
Q11. If the Republican primary election for Member of Congress from the 19th Congressional District was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Age
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Under 55 and
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
55
older
John Faso
50%
53%
48%
100%
0%
39%
49%
62%
52%
50%
Andrew Heaney
28%
26%
31%
0%
100%
35%
30%
21%
30%
28%
21%
21%
21%
0%
0%
27%
21%
17%
18%
23%
CD19616R_Crosstabs
Religion
Cath
3%
17%
79%
Prot
5%
16%
79%
Political View
Other
5%
16%
79%
Religion
Cath
52%
28%
20%
Prot
52%
29%
19%
Mod
5%
16%
79%
Conserv
3%
17%
80%
Political View
Other
41%
28%
32%
Mod
46%
32%
22%
Conserv
52%
27%
21%
2 of 5

May 31-June 2, 2016
MOE +/- 4.8%
Q12. How likely would you say you are to vote for [CANDIDATE NAME]?
Gender
Absolutely certain; theres no chance I will

change my mind
Fairly certain; its unlikely I will change my
mind
Not very certain; I very well may change my
mind
Not certain at all; theres a good chance I
will change my mind
Vote Choice
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney
Ulster/
Dutchess
47%
50%
43%
48%
44%
44%
36%
56%
39%
34%
36%
33%
35%
34%
33%
42%
30%
14%
10%
19%
14%
13%
16%
16%
5%
4%
6%
3%
8%
6%
1%
1%
0%
0%
2%
1%
Religion
Political View
Cath
Prot
Other
Mod
Conserv
49%
44%
47%
49%
50%
44%
40%
32%
37%
32%
40%
31%
36%
10%
19%
12%
16%
14%
6%
13%
14%
5%
4%
2%
6%
1%
7%
6%
4%
5%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
0%
Q13. Of the following issues, which single issue is the most important one you want your Member of Congress to be working on in Washington: [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
Health care
9%
7%
11%
8%
10%
9%
9%
10%
Education
7%
5%
10%
4%
7%
7%
8%
6%
Protecting the Second Amendment
17%
19%
15%
17%
13%
17%
14%
20%
Immigration reform
7%
9%
5%
6%
8%
10%
6%
5%
The federal budget deficit
20%
24%
16%
22%
21%
20%
17%
24%
Jobs
19%
16%
23%
20%
21%
23%
17%
18%
National defense
17%
17%
17%
20%
16%
11%
26%
15%
Vol: Something else
3%
3%
3%
2%
4%
3%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
7%
10%
6%
7%
19%
16%
6%
7%
21%
20%
20%
19%
19%
16%
3%
3%
0%
0%
Q14. Of the remaining issues, which one is the next most important issue you want your Member of Congress to be working on in Washington? [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
Health care
14%
12%
15%
13%
16%
11%
11%
18%
Education
6%
2%
10%
7%
4%
4%
7%
5%
Protecting the Second Amendment
13%
16%
10%
12%
17%
14%
11%
14%
Immigration reform
14%
17%
10%
12%
16%
16%
12%
13%
The federal budget deficit
15%
14%
15%
17%
11%
18%
11%
14%
Jobs
18%
21%
14%
19%
17%
13%
23%
18%
National defense
20%
17%
24%
18%
17%
23%
22%
15%
Vol: Something else
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
1%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
10%
15%
4%
6%
16%
12%
13%
14%
14%
15%
23%
16%
17%
21%
0%
1%
1%
0%
Q15. Have you been contacted on behalf of either of the Republican candidates for the 19th District whether it was by mail, by email, by telephone, or in person by a campaign worker?
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Age
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Under 55 and
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
55
older
Yes
76%
78%
74%
80%
81%
78%
74%
76%
70%
78%
No
24%
22%
25%
19%
18%
21%
26%
24%
30%
21%
Don't know/Refused
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
CD19616R_Crosstabs
Religion
Cath
10%
6%
12%
3%
18%
24%
25%
2%
1%
Prot
9%
9%
16%
10%
22%
18%
13%
4%
0%
Political View
Other
13%
2%
37%
4%
17%
14%
14%
0%
0%
Religion
Cath
9%
6%
12%
14%
19%
18%
21%
1%
1%
Prot
20%
6%
15%
13%
12%
14%
19%
1%
0%
Prot
79%
21%
1%
Conserv
7%
4%
21%
8%
20%
19%
17%
2%
0%
Political View
Other
2%
2%
7%
18%
11%
32%
25%
0%
3%
Religion
Cath
74%
26%
0%
Mod
12%
10%
9%
5%
23%
21%
16%
4%
1%
Mod
15%
8%
9%
14%
12%
17%
22%
1%
2%
Conserv
11%
4%
16%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1%
0%
Political View
Other
71%
29%
0%
Mod
77%
22%
1%
Conserv
76%
23%
0%
3 of 5

May 31-June 2, 2016
MOE +/- 4.8%
Q16. (If contacted on behalf of candidate) Which candidates campaign contacted you?
Gender
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
76%
78%
81%
79%
6%
4%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
73%
73%
77%
82%
6%
5%
Q17. Have you seen or heard any advertising for either of the Republican candidates for the 19th District whether on television, radio, on the internet or in some other place?
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
Yes
78%
76%
79%
81%
83%
67%
72%
91%
No
22%
23%
20%
18%
17%
32%
27%
8%
Don't know/Refused
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
78%
77%
22%
22%
0%
1%
John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Total
73%
81%
5%
Male
77%
83%
3%
Female
68%
79%
8%
Vote Choice
Faso
80%
78%
4%
Heaney
63%
90%
4%
Ulster/
Dutchess
67%
84%
6%
Q18. (If seen or heard any advertising) Which candidates advertising have you seen or heard?
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
79%
89%
76%
90%
7%
3%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
80%
85%
78%
87%
7%
4%
Q19. Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think has been waging the more NEGATIVE campaign? [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
John Faso
20%
20%
20%
7%
50%
23%
18%
19%
Andrew Heaney
36%
37%
35%
61%
11%
25%
34%
48%
Vol: Both
12%
13%
10%
11%
12%
7%
14%
14%
Vol: Neither
6%
8%
4%
6%
4%
8%
6%
5%
26%
22%
30%
15%
22%
36%
28%
14%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
25%
18%
35%
37%
7%
13%
4%
7%
28%
25%
Q20. Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which of the two candidates do you think is most likely to win the primary on June 28th? [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Ulster/
Sullivan/Broome/
Total
Male
Female
Faso
Heaney Dutchess
Delaware/Otsego
John Faso
50%
55%
45%
82%
19%
36%
48%
64%
Andrew Heaney
27%
26%
28%
7%
67%
34%
28%
20%
23%
19%
27%
10%
14%
30%
24%
16%
Age
Under 55 and
55
older
54%
49%
26%
27%
20%
24%
John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Total
84%
85%
5%
Male
88%
84%
4%
Female
79%
86%
5%
Faso
89%
84%
3%
Heaney
80%
91%
1%
Ulster/
Dutchess
80%
85%
4%
CD19616R_Crosstabs
Religion
Cath
69%
82%
5%
Prot
76%
78%
6%
Political View
Other
73%
94%
0%
Religion
Cath
74%
26%
1%
Prot
80%
19%
1%
Prot
86%
83%
4%
Other
76%
24%
0%
Prot
24%
37%
9%
6%
24%
Other
84%
84%
7%
Prot
51%
28%
21%
Conserv
80%
20%
0%
Mod
87%
85%
6%
Conserv
82%
85%
4%
Political View
Other
19%
31%
17%
2%
31%
Religion
Cath
49%
30%
21%
Mod
72%
26%
2%
Political View
Religion
Cath
16%
37%
13%
8%
27%
Conserv
72%
81%
6%
Political View
Religion
Cath
80%
87%
4%
Mod
76%
84%
3%
Mod
24%
31%
11%
8%
26%
Conserv
19%
40%
12%
5%
25%
Political View
Other
54%
15%
30%
Mod
48%
27%
25%
Conserv
52%
27%
22%
4 of 5

May 31-June 2, 2016
MOE +/- 4.8%
Nature of the Sample

NY CD19 Registered Republicans (Likely Voters)
Political View
Moderate
Conservative
Region
Ulster/Dutchess
Sullivan/Broome/Delaware/Otsego
Montgomery/Schoharie/Greene/
Columbia/Rennselaer
Religion
Catholic
Protestant
Other
Age
Under 55
55 and older
Gender
Male
Female
33%
64%
33%
29%
37%
35%
53%
11%
26%
74%
55%
45%
CD19616R_Crosstabs
5 of 5

Siena GOP 19th CD Crosstabs 6-7-16

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Siena GOP 19th CD Crosstabs 6-7-16

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Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

May 31-June 2, 2016

Q4. Andrew Heaney

Q5. Barack Obama

Q6. Hillary Clinton

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

Q8. Donald Trump

Q9. Chris Gibson

Q10. Will Yandik

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

Absolutely certain; theres no chance I will

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

Nature of the Sample

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