Month

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amt

Forcast

271.9

298.95
285.425
305.7
295.5625
306.4
297.3 300.98125
315.3 299.140625
297.2 307.2203125
330.7 302.2101563
300.1 316.4550781
275.5 308.2775391
301.3 291.8887695

279.4 296.5943848
306.6 287.9971924

Forcast error

Sq Forcast Absolute error

Error
-27.05
731.7025
20.275 411.075625
10.8375 117.4514063
-3.68125 13.55160156
16.159375 261.1254004
-10.0203125 100.4066626
28.48984375 811.6711969
-16.355078125 267.4885805
-32.7775390625 1074.367067
9.4112304688 88.57125894

27.05
20.275
10.8375
3.68125
16.159375
10.0203125
28.48984375
16.355078125
32.7775390625
9.4112304688

-17.1943847656 295.6468675
18.6028076172 346.0644512

17.1943847656
18.6028076172

350
300
250
200
150
100

Mean Square forcast error

405.6677

Mean Absolute error

18.62632

50
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Exponential smoothing
Forcast (F) at t+1 = Alpha*AMT+ (1-Alpha)*Forcast

Alpha
1-Alpha

0.5
0.5

Average

298.95

(Change the value of alpha and observe changes in the forca

350

300

250

200
Amt

150

Forcast

100
50
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

d observe changes in the forcast graph)

Amt
Forcast

Dec

Month

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Amt

Forcast

Forcast error

Sq Forcast
Error

271.9

305.7
306.4
297.3
315.3
297.2
330.7
300.1
275.5
301.3
279.4
306.6

299.17
307.16
303.57
314.23
310.22
296.09
296.26
287.26

16.13
-9.96
27.13
-14.13
-34.72
5.21
-16.86
19.34

Mean Square forcast error

Mean Absolute error

260.1769
99.2016
736.0369
199.6569
1205.4784
27.1441
284.2596
374.0356

398.24875
17.935

Absolute
error

350

Weights
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
16.13
9.96
27.13
14.13
34.72
5.21
16.86
19.34

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Amt
Forcast

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec