Sei sulla pagina 1di 26

Chapter 17

Probability Models
Objectives:
Geometric and Binomial model in
Bernoilli trials
Homework: Read Chapter 17
pg.388-396 solve: Pg.401 # 2, 4, 6

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

http://www.famousmathematicians.com/daniel-bernoulli/
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 3

Do now:
A new sales gimmick has 30% of the M&Ms covered with
speckles. These groovy candies are mixed randomly with
the normal candies as they are put into the bags for distribution
and sale. You buy a bag and remove candies one at a time
looking for the speckles. How many different ways could two
speckled ones be in a handful of five candies? Three?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 4

Bernoulli Trials

The basis for the probability models we will examine in


this chapter is the Bernoulli trial.
We have Bernoulli trials if:
there are two possible outcomes (success and failure).
the probability of success, p, is constant.
the trials are independent.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 5

A new sales gimmick has 30% of the M&Ms covered with


.
speckles. These
groovy candies are mixed randomly with the
normal candies as they are put into the bags for distribution and
sale. You buy a bag and remove candies one at a time looking for
the speckles
Whats the probability that the first speckled one we
see is the fourth candy we get?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 6

The Geometric Model

Geometric probability model tells us the probability for a


random variable that counts the number of Bernoulli trials
until the first success.
Geometric models are completely specified by one
parameter, p, the probability of success, and are denoted
Geom (p).

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 7

The Geometric Model (cont.)


Geometric probability model for Bernoulli trials:
Geom(p)
p = probability of success
q = 1 p = probability of failure
X = number of trials until the first success occurs

P(X = x) = qx-1p
1
E(X)
p
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

q
p2
Slide 17 - 8

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 9

Whats the probability that the first speckled one is the


fourth one?

Whats the probability that the first speckled candy is one of the first
four we look at?
How many do we expect to check, on average to find
a speckled one?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 10

Independence

One of the important requirements for Bernoulli trials is


that the trials be independent.
When we dont have an infinite population, the trials are
not independent. But, there is a rule that allows us to
pretend we have independent trials:
The 10% condition: Bernoulli trials must be
independent. If that assumption is violated, it is still
okay to proceed as long as the sample is smaller than
10% of the population.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 11

Whats the probability that well find two speckled


ones in a .handful of five candies?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 12

The Binomial Model

A Binomial model tells us the probability for a


random variable that counts the number of
successes in a fixed number of Bernoulli trials.
Two parameters define the Binomial model: n, the
number of trials; and, p, the probability of
success. We denote this Binom(n, p).

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 13

The Binomial Model (cont.)

In n trials, there are


n!
n Ck
k ! n k !
ways to have k successes.
Read C as n choose k.
n k

Note: n! = n (n 1) 2 1, and n! is read


as n factorial.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 14

The Binomial Model (cont.)


Binomial probability model for Bernoulli trials:
Binom(n,p)
n = number of trials
p = probability of success
q = 1 p = probability of failure
X = # of successes in n trials

P(X = x) = nCx px qnx


np
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

npq
Slide 17 - 15

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 16

The Normal Model to the Rescue!

When dealing with a large number of trials in a


Binomial situation, making direct calculations of
the probabilities becomes tedious (or outright
impossible).
Fortunately, the Normal model comes to the
rescue

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 17

Suppose the Tennessee Red Cross anticipates the need for at


least 1850 units of O-negative blood this year. It estimates that it
will collect blood from 32,000 donors.
What is the probability that they get exactly 1850 units of Onegatives?
How great is the risk that the Tennessee Red Cross will fall short
of meeting its need?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 18

What is probability that in 5 boxes


we get exactly 0,1,2,3,4,5 pictures
of Tiger Wood?

java applet

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 19

The Normal Model to the Rescue (cont.)

As long as the Success/Failure Condition holds,


we can use the Normal model to approximate
Binomial probabilities.
Success/failure condition: A Binomial model is
approximately Normal if we expect at least 10
successes and 10 failures:
np 10 and nq 10

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 20

Suppose the Tennessee Red Cross anticipates the need for at


least 1850 units of O-negative blood this year. It estimates that it
will collect blood from 32,000 donors.
How great is the risk that the Tennessee Red Cross will fall short
of meeting its need?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 21

Continuous Random Variables

When we use the Normal model to approximate


the Binomial model, we are using a continuous
random variable to approximate a discrete
random variable.
So, when we use the Normal model, we no longer
calculate the probability that the random variable
equals a particular value, but only that it lies
between two values.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 22

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 23

What Can Go Wrong?

Be sure you have Bernoulli trials.


You need two outcomes per trial, a constant
probability of success, and independence.
Remember that the 10% Condition provides a
reasonable substitute for independence.
Dont confuse Geometric and Binomial models.
Dont use the Normal approximation with small n.
You need at least 10 successes and 10 failures
to use the Normal approximation.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 24

What have we learned?

Bernoulli trials show up in lots of places.


Depending on the random variable of interest, we
might be dealing with a
Geometric model
Binomial model
Normal model

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 25

What have we learned? (cont.)

Geometric model

Binomial model

When were interested in the number of Bernoulli


trials until the next success.
When were interested in the number of successes
in a certain number of Bernoulli trials.

Normal model

To approximate a Binomial model when we expect


at least 10 successes and 10 failures.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slide 17 - 26