Normal Heat Hours and

phenology
Gabriele Cola (1), Roberto Caterisano(2), Paola
Cirone (2), Massimiliano Ghironi (3), Beatrice
Pesenti Barili (3), Luigi Mariani (1), Osvaldo
Failla (1)
(1) Universit degli Studi di Milano - DiProVe.
(2) Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e per i Servizi in Agricoltura della
Calabria
(3) Centro di Agrometeorologia Applicata Regionale della Regione Liguria

XIV Convegno Nazionale di Agrometeorologia - AIAM 2011 - BOLOGNA, 8 Giugno 2011

FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME

Biological time expressed by means of

THERMAL UNITS (TU)

(Tmed-Cmin)/2

FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME

NORMAL HEAT HOURS (NHH)
Response function
T - developement.
Beta Function (Wang & Engel, 1998)
Temperature Response Model (Weikai & Hunt, 1999)

OPT1

MIN

OPT2

MAX

OLIVE TREE - ECOLOGICAL OUTLOOK

OLIVE: subtropical fruit tree or shrub of great longevity.

PLACE OF ORIGIN OF THIS SPECIES: between southern
Turkey and northern Syria. The olive was spread throughout the
Mediterranean Basin by Phoenicians, Greeks and Romans.
IN THE LAST CENTURIES: spread to the whole world areas
with Mediterranean like climates (Koeppen's Cs), in areas
bertween 30 and 40 of North and South latitude; howev er olive
is cultivated in many other areas with climates that do not fit
under this designation (Denney et al., 1985).

MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES

F. sans-Cortez et al., 2002

MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES

53

00

55

79

71

07
81
57

09

60

11

33

65

68

F. Sanz-Cortz et al., 2002

92

89

OLIVE BBCH

OLIVE BBCH

BBCH

DESCRIPTION

Foliar buds disclosure

External small leaves opening further with their tips inter

crossing.

31

Shoots reach 10% of final size

52

Inflorescence buds open. Flower cluster development starts.

54

Flower cluster growing

55

Flower cluster totally expanded. Floral buds start to open.

Mignolatura

58

The corolla, longer than calyx, starts to change the color

from green to white

61

Beginning of flowering: 10% of flowers open

65

Full flowering: at least 50% of flowers open

69

End of flowering, fruit set, non-fertilized ovaries fallen

71

Fruit size about 10% of final size

73

Fruit size about 30% of final size

75

Fruit size about 50% of final size. Stone starts to lignificate

(it shows cutting resistance)

81

Beginning of fruit colouring

85

Increasing of specific fruit colouring

89

Harvest maturity

Name

Site

Region Cv

COOX

COOY

MSL

PERIOD

SP01

Ponzano Basso
(villa Pratola)

Liguria

various

9.9205

44.1481

20

2000/2009

GE01

Caperana

Liguria

lavagnina

9.3413

44.3356

150

2008,2009

GE02

Pieve Alta

Liguria

pignola

9.0945

44.3764

235

2008,2009

IM01

Cornai

Liguria

taggiasca

8.013

44.0625

190

2008,2009

IM02

Costa

Liguria

taggiasca

8.0612

43.9289

120

2008,2009

SV01

Ranzi, Castellari

Liguria

colombaia

8.2632

44.1476

50

2009,2010

SV02

Viarzo

Liguria

pignola

8.3895

44.3

160

2009,2010

CS01

cerchiara

Calabria

carolea

16.4098

39.8212

99

2000/2010

CS01

montalto uffugo

Calabria

carolea

16.2167

39.6542

250

2000/2010

CZ01

zagarise

Calabria

carolea

16.65

38.992

508

2000/2010

CZ02

zagarise

Calabria

carolea

16.7088

38.9497

450

2000/2010

RC01

siderno

Calabria

carolea

16.2517

38.2697

58

2000/2010

MODEL CALIBRATION
Dataset: Experimental site of Santo Stefano Magra (SP)
Period: 2000 - 2010

CALIBRATION APPROACH
Fixed cardinal minimum temperature = 6 C
Variable first cardinal optimal temperature = 15 25 C
Variable first cardinal optimal temperature = 20 35 C
Variable cardinal maximum temperature = 30 40 C
1132 COMBINATIONS
1132 models based on NHH sums thresholds
Starting date: January 1st
MODEL CHOICE BASED ON STATISTICAL INDEXES
(MAE, RRMSE, R2)

date

BBCH 52 954 NHH

BBCH
NHHsum

52
954

54
1111

55
1238

58
1453

65
1566

69
1712

71
1837

73
2132

75
2855
30/12/00

1000

16/12/00

BBCH 65 1566 NHH

02/12/00

2000

18/11/00

BBCH 75 2855 NHH

04/11/00

3000

21/10/00

4000

07/10/00

5000

23/09/00

09/09/00

26/08/00

12/08/00

29/07/00

15/07/00

01/07/00

17/06/00

03/06/00

20/05/00

06/05/00

22/04/00

08/04/00

25/03/00

11/03/00

26/02/00

12/02/00

29/01/00

15/01/00

01/01/00

NHHsum

NHHsum

6000

SELECTED MODEL
cardinal minimum temperature = 6 C
cardinal optimal temperature = 18 C
cardinal optimal temperature = 30 C
cardinal maximum temperature = 36 C
SP01 dataset 2000/2009

SELECTED MODEL
cardinal minimum temperature = 6 C
cardinal optimal temperature = 18 C
cardinal optimal temperature = 30 C
cardinal maximum temperature = 36 C
SP01 dataset 2000/2009

MODEL VALIDATION - MAE

SV01

3.77

IM02

9.82

SV02

9.86

IM01

11.00

GE02

16.91

GE01

22.36

MODEL VALIDATION MAE - LIGURIA

BBCH 52

13.67

BBCH 54

12.00

BBCH 55

14.29

BBCH 59

14.10

BBCH 65

9.00

BBCH 69

10.13

BBCH 71

5.67

BBCH 73

10.43

BBCH 75

15.07

MODEL VALIDATION
Datasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 2009 - 2010
BBCH 52
140
120
110
100
90
80
GE01

GE02

IM01

IM02

SV01

SV02

site
measured

simulated

BBCH 54
160
150

DOY

DOY

130

140
130
120
110
100
GE01

GE02

IM01

IM01

IM02

IM02

site
measured

simulated

SV01

SV01

SV02

MODEL VALIDATION
Datasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 2009 - 2010
BBCH 55
160
140
130
120
110
100
GE01

GE02

IM01

IM02

SV01

SV02

SV02

site
measured

simulated

BBCH 58
170
160

DOY

DOY

150

150
140
130
120
110
GE01

GE01

GE02

GE02

IM01

IM02

SV01

site
measured

simulated

SV01

SV02

SV02

MODEL VALIDATION
Datasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 2009 - 2010
BBCH 65
180
170
150
140
130
120
GE01

GE02

IM01

SV01

SV02

site
measured

simulated

BBCH 69
180
170
160

DOY

DOY

160

150
140
130
120
GE01

GE02

IM01

IM01

IM02

site
measured

simulated

IM02

SV01

SV02

MODEL VALIDATION
Datasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 2009 - 2010
BBCH 71
200
190

170
160
150
140
GE01

GE01

GE02

GE02

IM01

IM02

SV01

SV02

SV02

site
measured

simulated

BBCH 73
210
200
190

DOY

DOY

180

180
170
160
150
IM01

IM01

IM01

SV01

SV01

site
measured

simulated

SV02

SV02

MODEL VALIDATION
Datasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 2009 - 2010

BBCH 75
260

DOY

240
220
200
180
160
GE01

GE01

GE02

GE02

IM01

IM01

IM01

IM02

IM02

site
measured

simulated

IM02

SV01

SV01

SV02

SV02

MODEL VALIDATION

SV01
220

2009

2010

MAE = 3.4

MAE = 4

DOY

200
180
160
140
120
100
54

58

69

73

75

52

54

55

58

BBCH
measured

simulated

65

71

73

75

MODEL VALIDATAION

DOY

GE02
210
190
170
150
130
110
90

2008
MAE = 18.4
2009
MAE = 13
52

54

55

58

65

69

71

BBCH
measured

simulated

75

58

71

75

MODEL THRESHOLDS CALIBRATION FOR

CALABRIA
SELECTED MODEL
cardinal minimum temperature = 6 C
cardinal optimal temperature = 18 C
cardinal optimal temperature = 30 C
cardinal maximum temperature = 36 C
BBCH

NHHsum

55

948

65

1502

69

1762

73

2039

75

2435

CALIBRATION - CALABRIA
CZ02 dataset 2000/2010
240

MAE = 5.75

220
200
180
160
140
120
100

measured

simulated

75

75

75

75

73

73

73

73

69

69

69

69

65

65

65

65

65

55

55

55

55

55

80

measured

site

simulated

C
Z1

C
S1

C
Z1

C
S2

C
S1

C
S2

C
Z1

C
S1

C
Z1

C
S2

R
C1

C
S2

C
S1

C
S2

C
S1

C
S1

C
Z1

measured

DOY

Z1

C1

Z1

S1

S1

C1

S2

S1

Z1

Z1

S1

S1

S2

C1

S1

S2

Z1

Z1

DOY

VALIDATION - CALABRIA
BBCH 55

150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80

site
simulated

BBCH 65

170
160
150
140
130
120
110

measured

site

simulated

S2

C1

S1

C1

C1

S1

S2

C1

S2

S1

Z1

C1

S1

S2

S1

Z1

measured

DOY

C
S2

C
S1

C
S2

C
S2

R
C1

C
S2

C
S1

C
S2

C
Z1

R
C1

C
S2

C
Z1

C
S1

C
S2

C
S2

C
S1

C
Z1

DOY

VALIDATION - CALABRIA
BBCH 69

180
170
160
150
140
130
120

site
simulated

BBCH 73

200
190
180
170
160
150
140

VALIDATION - CALABRIA

site
measured

simulated

Z1

Z1
C
O

Z1

S1
C
O

Z1

C1
O

C1
O

S2
C
O

Z1

S1
C
O

Z1

S1
C
O

S2

C1
O

S1
O

Z1
C
O

C
O

Z1

S1

240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150

DOY

BBCH 75

MODEL VALIDATION - MAE

CS01

16.18

CS02

17.24

CZ01

RC01

11.51

MODEL VALIDATION MAE - CALABRIA

BBCH 55

14.46

BBCH 65

11.02

BBCH 69

9.21

BBCH 73

11.25

BBCH 75

21.65

CONCLUSIONS

SERIE METEO
SERIE FENOLOGICHE
DIFFERENZE VARIETALI