Abstract

The security situation in Europe is in a shift. Careful actions are called for if Europe wants
to keep maintain peace in its territory. To this end, it is important to know how the choices made
will affect what the future brings. To investigate the future development of the EU and Europe in
general, I utilize the method of scenario building.
Building scenarios of the future requires a guideline for interpretation of the states actions
as well as making assumptions of their interests. Several theories have been developed to model
international relations. I choose two opposing theories, neorealism and constructivism as the basis
of my scenarios. I show that while neorealism represent a pessimistic view with an eventual
dissolution of the EU, constructivism has higher hopes regarding the Unions future and even
suggests a possible expansion. I further argue that neorealism is better suited for scenario building,
because it offers a clearer step-by-step path to follow.