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Pablo Gerchunoff
Lucas Llach

Un siglo de polticas econmicas

argentinas

emece

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EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

334

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338

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y El. DESENCANTO

el capital extranjero debe tomarse como un complemento y no como factor

determinante e irreemplazable del desarrollo.'

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OTRO GOLPE DE SUERTE

Trminos del intercambio externo , 1960=100

160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0

100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0 '

1--r-+

LO m o N a io m o N
o
v
v v v v a v^ v1 Un Ln Ln
io
io
m m m m m m m m m m m m

v
io
m

LO

LO
m

Fuente: apndice estadstico.

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LOS SOCIOS SOCIALISTAS

Exportacin a pases socialistas
como % de las exportaciones argentinas
8
16
14
12
10

8
6
4
2

o
1972
Fuente: Di Tella (1983).

1973

1974

1975

1976

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VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983)

343

345

VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983)

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348

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

UN CUADRO DESMEJORADO
Indicadores econmicos durante el peronismo

14 -r

200
180

12 +

160
1 0+

140
120

8+

100
6+

80

4+

60
40

2+

20

0
1973

1974

r-^

1975

Crecimiento ( escala izquierda)

Inflacin ( escala derecha)
Dficit del sector pblico ( escala izquierda)
Fuente : apndice estadstico.

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VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983)

355

el caos sembrado por el gobierno marxista de Allende solamente aceler los

cambios socializantes graduales que se fueron introduciendo en Chile ininterrumpidamente desde mediados de la dcada del 30.8

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DINERO BARATO
Tasa de inters activa, nominal y real, antes de 1977

-Tasa nominal activa de inters, anual

-Inflacin mayorista anual
-Tasa de inters real anual

Fuente: datos provistos por Carlos Winograd.

360

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La actual situacin financiera es tpica de un ajuste transitorio debido, en

gran medida, a la sobreestimacin por parte de los empresarios de la tasa
de inflacin.9

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DIVERGENCIA
Tasas trimestrales de inflacin local e internacional
y de devaluacin

------ Ta,a de deoalaaaln

----Tosa de Intlac- ote,mmonal

-Tasa de aeca daoen 1 tasa de ITadanmematlooal

-in0ndon local minotlsta
-Inlbcic n local _,_'do

--------------- ----------------------97911

Fuente : Canitrot ( 1981).

367

VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983)

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368

LEJOS DEL MUNDO

Comercio argentino como porcentaje de su PBI
y del comercio mundial

3.000

.500
2.000
1.500

1.000
0.500
0.0

0.000
m

v
m

un
m
m m m Lo
m

-Comercio exterior como % del P3l (escala izquierda)

Comercio argentino como % del comercio mundial (escala derecha)

Fuente: Maddison (1995) y apndice estadstico,

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370

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

ABAJO EL ARANCEL
Evolucin de la estructura arancelaria bajo Martnez de Hoz

Arancel
o mas ae 100%
70%-100%
-40%-70%
o 10%- 20%
0l%-10%

.o%
08/78

Fuente: De Pablo (1987).

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CUANDO EL TIPO DE CAMBIO IMPORTA

Exportaciones , i mportaciones y tipo de cambio real

12000.0

T 10000

10000.0

90.00

8000.0

80.00

6000.0

70.00

4000.0

60,00

2000.0

50.00

0.0

40.00
1 976

1 977

1 978

1 979

1 980

O Exportaciones
~Importaciones
0 Tipo de cambio real deflactado por IPM (1976=100)

Fuente: Winograd (1984) y apndice estadstico.

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LAS CUENTAS DEL PROCESO

Gastos e ingresos de la administracin central , como % del PBI
30 r

25 +
20 +

Los dueos de pequeos ahorros sufren silenciosamente, como la experiencia muestra, estas enormes depredaciones. cuando habran derribado a un gobierno que les hubiese quitado una fraccin de ese monto por medios ms de-

15 +

liberados pero ms justos.10

1 0+

5
o
o

n
m

r
m

n
m

ro
m

m
m

m
m

Ingresos (% del PBI ) Gastos ( % del PSI)

Fuente: base de datos propia.

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UN PROCESO NEGATIVO
Crecimiento e inflacin en 1973-83

CRECIMIENTO CERO
La Argentina y el mundo en 1973-83
Crecimiento - Inflacin minorista

Fuente: apndice estadistico.

o PBI per capita 1e1973, en dlares de 1990

o PBI per capas de 1983. en dlares de 1990

PBI per capita d e i 973, en dlares de 1990

PBI por Capea de 1983, en dlares de 1990

Europa: Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia e Italia.

NICS: Taiwn, Tailandia y Corea del Sur,
Mundo: muestra de 56 paises de Maddison (1995).
Fuente: Maddison (1995).

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El ciclo de la ilusin
y el desencanto
Un siglo de polticas econmicas
argentinas

emec
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386

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y El. DESENCANTO

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LA DCADA PERDIDA
Crecimiento comparado de la Argentina y otros pases
de Amrica latina

10000.0
9000.0

8000.0

-1,52% anual

7000.0
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
3000.0

-0.01% anual

2000.0
1000.0
0.0
Argentina

6 grandes de
Amrica latina

o PBI per cpita en 1982 0P81 per cpita en 1989

'Se trata de Brasil , Colombia, Chile, Mxico, Per y Venezuela
Fuente: Maddison (1995).

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secundario.

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392

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y F.I. DESENCANTO

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

395

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de inflacin. Por otro lado. la inflacin acumulada desdejunio (le 1985 haba
meado presiones en el mercado de trabajo y haba deteriorado un poco el nivel real de las tarifas pblicas y el tipo de cambio.'

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y el. DtFcll, GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

403

AUSTRAL, ESTABILIZACIN Y DESPUS

Tasas mensuales de inflacin minorista

15+
10+

5+
01
Lo

aJ

uf)

oJ

u')

>

In

(A

ll7

!n

co

OJ

OJ

>

<

Z W

co

Co

co

Co

OJ

C
w

W
Z

Co

w C
N

OJ
f)
(n

Fuente: Machinea (1989),

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yo soy monetarista, estructura!ista y todo lo que sea necesario para bajar la

inflacin, y si hay que recurrir a la macumba, tambin .7

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LA DEMOCRACIA 1' EL DIFCIL GOI31ERN0... (1983-1989)

409

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

411

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416

laboral que impeda toda influencia del gobierno en la determinacin de

salarios, exceptuando obviamente los del sector pblico.

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EI, DIFICIL. GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

419

El ciclo de la ilusin
y el desencanto
Un siglo de polticas econmicas
argentinas

emece

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GRANDES EXPECrArlvkS, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

423

Las tendencias de la economa internacional durante los aos 90

pueden entenderse , desde una perspectiva histrica, como una prolongacin y una intensificacin de las que venan manifestndose desde la
posguerra . El proceso de interrelacin creciente entre los varios merca-

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HISTORIA Y PREHISTORIA DE LA GLOBALIZACIN

Valor del comercio y la produccin mundiales
(escala logartmica , 1870=100)

GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

427

Comercio

Fuente: Maddison (1995).

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428

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

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GRANDES E xPECTAnvAS,

G RA N DES... (1989-2001)

429

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GRANDES

DE LA HIPERINFLACIN A LA INFLACIN CERO

Variacin porcentual anual de los ndices de precios

1980-88

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Precios al consumidor 287

4.924

1.344

84

17,5

7,4

3,9

1,6

0,1

0,3

Precios mayoristas

5.383

798

57

3,1

0,1

5,8

2,1

-0,9

293

1996 1997

Fuente: Lach (1997).

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EXPECTATIV AS, G RANDES... (1989-2001)

433

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437

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444

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445

446

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GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... ( 1989-2001)

447

448

EL CICLO DE LA ILUSION Y EL DESENCANTO

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GRANDES

ExNCCTATtv,as, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

451

452

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GRA NDES

EXPECLanvAS,GRANDES...

(1989-2001)

453

GRANDES ExpEcTATwAS,GRANDES...(1989-2001)

455

UN PROBLEMA DE PROPORCIONES
Deuda externa como porcentaje de las exportaciones,
pases seleccionados (2000)

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700%

600%
500%
400%
3 00%
200%
1 00%

0%

Fuente: estadsticas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y de la Organizacin Mundial de Comercio.

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