MANITOBA

[MARCH 15, 2016]

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, MARCH 15, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,764 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on March 12th,
2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.33%, 19 times
out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.34%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.26%; ; 19
times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011
Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

40% OF MANITOBANS SAY A GOOD SOCIAL MEDIA HISTORY IS VERY IMPORTANT

March 15, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Manitobans are much less likely to
vote for candidates who make oensive remarks - 65% say its either somewhat or very important that
candidates not have made oensive remarks. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/2.33%, 19 times out of 20.
To a certain extent there will be some social desirability bias in these numbers, said Quito Maggi,
President of Mainstreet Research. These numbers validate why political parties drop candidates embroiled
in these types of controversies. The individual circumstances matter of course, as well as how oensive the
remarks were and what actions were taken afterward.
Only a very small percentage of voters, almost as small as the margin of error, say oensive remarks on
social media would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. 1 in 4 Manitobans say the behaviour
would have no eect.
We asked Manitobans which party was best to continue important government spending while eliminating
waste. The PCs lead with 41%, thats 6% higher than their horserace number from the same poll. The NDP
over perform their horserace number by 3%, the Liberals match their horserace number of 16%.
Almost 1 in 2 Manitobans (47%) support higher taxes for high income earners. Perhaps not surprisingly its
the NDP that performs best with this group when we look at the party aliation breakdowns. But many of
these voters are also choosing the PC party (21%), Maggi nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

When it comes to nding the right balance

between cutting wasteful government
spending and continuing government
spending on important services, who do
you trust to do a better job?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

Manitoba

Winnipeg

16%

3%

14%

55%

13%

18%

3%

18%

33%

28%

17%

3%

16%

41%

22%

Rest of Manitoba

A4

When it comes to nding the right balance

between cutting wasteful government
spending and continuing government
spending on important services, who do
you trust to do a better job?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

30%

15%

23%

19%

20%

24%

PC

35%

45%

41%

47%

49%

34%

Liberal

16%

20%

16%

13%

15%

18%

Green

4%

3%

2%

4%

1%

5%

Undecided

16%

18%

18%

18%

16%

19%

Sample

213

372

534

645

780

984

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

22%

28%

13%

PC

41%

33%

55%

Liberal

16%

18%

14%

Green

3%

3%

3%

Undecided

17%

18%

16%

Sample

1764

862

902

A5

Should High-Income Earners be taxed

more, be taxed less or continue to be
charged the current rate?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

More

36%

50%

56%

47%

51%

42%

Less

16%

11%

8%

8%

11%

11%

The Same

31%

28%

27%

31%

28%

30%

Not Sure

18%

12%

9%

15%

10%

17%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

More

47%

49%

42%

Less

11%

11%

12%

The Same

29%

26%

34%

Not Sure

13%

14%

12%

A6

If a candidate made sexist or homophobic

remarks on social media, how would it
aect your vote?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Less Likely

60%

61%

58%

47%

60%

55%

More Likely

0%

4%

2%

4%

4%

1%

No Eect

31%

18%

28%

27%

27%

26%

Not Sure

10%

17%

12%

21%

9%

19%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Less Likely

57%

56%

59%

More Likely

3%

3%

3%

No Eect

26%

27%

25%

Not Sure

14%

15%

13%

A7

And how important is it to you that a

candidate not have made embarrassing or
oensive remarks on social media?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Very

27%

48%

43%

46%

32%

47%

Somewhat

28%

21%

28%

21%

26%

23%

Not Too

35%

13%

20%

18%

24%

21%

Not At All

6%

10%

4%

6%

10%

3%

Not Sure

6%

8%

5%

9%

8%

5%

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

Very

40%

38%

43%

Somewhat

25%

24%

26%

Not Too

22%

24%

20%

Not At All

7%

7%

6%

Not Sure

7%

7%

6%

A6

PARTY AFFILIATION
VS
GOVERNMENT SPENDING

76% of voters who believe the NDP are the best scal managers are voting NDP

NDP 76%
PC
Liberal

80%

10%

72%

Undecided 6%
0

15%

25%

10%
10

20

9%

73%
30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NDP

PC

Liberal

76%

1%

1%

6%

PC

3%

80%

2%

3%

Liberal

2%

4%

72%

10%

Green

4%

4%

0%

9%

Undecided

15%

10%

25%

73%

NDP

Undecided

A6

PARTY AFFILIATION
VS
TAXES ON HIGH INCOME HOUSEHOLDS

21% of Voters who want to increase taxes on high income earners are voting PC

More 26%

21%

Less 18%
The Same 8%

29%

49%

5%

59%

Not Sure 18%

0

22%

10

10%
21%
20

18%
30

40

25%
9%

15%

6% 37%
50

60

70

80

90

More

Less

The Same

NDP

26%

18%

8%

18%

PC

21%

49%

59%

21%

Liberal

22%

5%

10%

18%

Green

2%

3%

9%

6%

29%

25%

15%

37%

Undecided

100

Not Sure

A6

PARTY AFFILIATION
VS
OFFENSIVE SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT

Less 19%

36%

More 20%
No Effect 17%

10

7% 23%

52%

18%

32%

Not Sure 21%

0

15%

19%

31%
20

30

30%

14%
40

50

8%

30%

60

70

80

90

Less

More

No Eect

NDP

19%

20%

17%

21%

PC

36%

52%

32%

31%

Liberal

15%

18%

19%

14%

Green

7%

2%

2%

3%

23%

8%

30%

30%

Undecided

100

Not Sure

A6

PARTY AFFILIATION
VS
OFFENSIVE SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT

Important 19%

36%

Not Important 21%

Not Sure 11%
0

10

15%

33%

20%

29%

12%

20

30

5% 25%

40

50

24%

10%

38%

60

70

80

90

100

Important

Not Important

Not Sure

NDP

19%

21%

11%

PC

36%

33%

29%

Liberal

15%

20%

12%

Green

5%

2%

10%

Undecided

25%

24%

38%

A8

SCRIPT

When it comes to nding the right balance between cutting wasteful government spending and
continuing government spending on important services, who do you trust to do a better job?
The NDP led by Greg Selinger
The Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
The Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
TheGreen Party led James Beddome
Undecided
Should High-Income Earners be taxed more, be taxed less or continue to be charged the current rate?
Support taxing high-income earners more
Support taxing high-income earners less
Support taxing high-income earners the current rate
Not Sure
If a candidate made sexist or homophobic remarks on social media, how would it aect your vote?
It would make you less likely to vote for the candidate
It would make you more likely to vote for the candidate
It would have no eect on your vote
Not sure
And how important is it to you that a candidate not have made embarrassing or oensive remarks on
social media?
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Not at all important
Not sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US:

WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER
@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved